Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ★★★ [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Palm Oil**: No rating [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Corn**: ★★★ [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Eggs**: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It takes into account factors such as weather, policies, geopolitical conflicts, and supply - demand relationships to provide insights into price trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Category Beans 1 - Beans 1 saw a decline with reduced positions. Domestic soybeans performed weaker than imported ones. In the medium - term, weather is the main price - influencing factor for imported soybeans, and the US biodiesel policy is bullish in the long - term, providing support to GBOT soybeans. Short - term weather in Northeast China is favorable for soybean growth [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - Due to the escalating Israel - Iran conflict, crude oil fluctuated widely, and US soybeans remained strong, causing Dalian soybean meal to increase in positions and price. The strong performance of domestic oil futures may limit the rise of soybean meal. On June 19, CBOT was closed. US weather in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean planting. The domestic soybean meal spot price rose today, with 12 million tons of imported soybeans arriving in June. The oil mills' operating rate is high, and soybean meal is in a stock - building cycle. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade remain, and attention should be paid to the oil market and weather changes from June to August [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Driven by the biodiesel theme, soybean oil remained strong. The profit of soybean crushing improved, which is beneficial for China to purchase forward soybeans. The market showed a pattern of strong oil and weak meal. As the oil price on the futures market rose, the spot basis weakened. In the long - term, the biodiesel development is likely to support vegetable oils, and a long - term strategy of buying on dips for vegetable oils is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed is in a critical growth period, and its price is supported by weather premiums and changes in the crude oil market. Canadian old - crop inventories are tight, and new - crop prospects are promising, so the medium - term price is likely to rise. The price difference between domestic rapeseed oil and other oils is high, and terminal consumption is not strong. The main boost to rapeseed oil prices comes from import uncertainties. In the weather - sensitive period, rapeseed futures prices may rise in the medium - term but face short - term pressure from demand [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures fluctuated upwards. The bullish sentiment affected by wheat policies weakened. The price difference between new wheat and corn is around 30 yuan/ton, and some feed enterprises are substituting. After the wheat minimum purchase price policy was announced, the actual price increase was small. Corn traders expect future price increases. North and South port inventories are decreasing, and the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is falling, with inventories remaining stable. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of corn is not obvious, and the futures may continue to fluctuate [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures declined significantly in the near - term contracts and slightly in the far - term ones. The spot price remained stable. Policy aims to stabilize pig prices by reducing the inventory of breeding sows, but the industry still faces large pressure on pig slaughter in the medium - term due to high production capacity and the number of new - born piglets. Attention should be paid to the weight - reduction rhythm [8] Eggs - Egg futures fluctuated within the range formed yesterday. Spot prices rose across the country. As egg prices entered a low - level range, bottom - fishing sentiment emerged, and demand was released in advance due to the upcoming Mid - Autumn Festival. However, due to continuous capacity release and normal old - hen culling progress, the egg price increase is considered a rebound rather than a reversal [9]

| Millio | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月19日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | ★伊以-①哈梅内伊称伊朗不会投降,不接受强加的战或和。②据悉如果美国干预以色列和伊朗的冲突,俄 罗斯威胁将介入。③美媒：特朗普私下批准对的伊朗攻击计划,但未下达最终命令。④美国驻以色列大使馆 人员开始撤离以色列。⑤特朗普称伊朗请求与美谈判，伊方否认。随后美媒报道称，伊朗将接受与美会谈的 提议。⑥特朗普：美国不寻求停火，而是要求伊朗没有核或器。与伊朗谈判的大门仍然敞开。认为伊朗仅需 几周就能获得核武。不想卷入中东局势。此前特朗普对是否介入冲突含糊其辞。⑦德国外交消息人士：德法 英外长和欧盟高级外交官周五将在日内瓦与伊朗外长举行核谈判。 ★特朗普重申美联储应降息:应降200 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market is in a state of shock, with varying degrees of changes in supply, demand, and inventory in each sector. Uncertainties remain in the market, and prices are affected by multiple factors such as policies, geopolitics, and raw material prices [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel plate continued to fluctuate today. The apparent demand for thread was stable week - on - week, production increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coils recovered, production remained high, and inventory declined. The blast furnace still has profits, and the molten iron output remains relatively high, but the off - season carrying capacity is insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation still fermented repeatedly. The overall domestic demand is still weak, the market sentiment is cautious, and the plate fluctuation narrows. The short - term trend is mainly shock [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore plate fluctuated today. The global shipment is in the peak season, and there is an expectation of end - of - season impulse. The domestic arrival volume decreased, but is expected to rebound. The port inventory is expected to stop falling and increase, and the supply pressure increases marginally. The terminal demand is in the off - season, the steel mills still have profits, and the molten iron output is expected to remain relatively high in the short term. The market uncertainty is still strong, and the iron ore is expected to fluctuate [2] Coke - The coke price fluctuated upward during the day. The molten iron output decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of the fourth round of price cuts. The coking profit has shrunk, and the daily coking output has declined from the annual high. The overall coke inventory decreased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders is still low. Affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the coking coal price rebounded, and the coke price is driven by crude oil to some extent [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated upward during the day. The production of coking coal mines continued to decline slightly, and the supply was still restricted. The spot auction market improved slightly at low prices, and the decline in transaction prices slowed down. The terminal inventory continued to decline slightly. The overall coking coal inventory may be destocked, but the rebound space of the coking coal price should not be overly optimistic due to inventory pressure [5] Silicomanganese - Affected by international conflicts, the silicomanganese price fluctuated upward during the day. The tender inquiry price of a large steel mill in the north was 5500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton compared with May. The inventory level decreased due to previous production cuts, but the weekly production began to increase. The manganese ore inventory accumulation speed increased, and the price is under further pressure, but the price - holding intention of manganese mines has increased. The silicomanganese is temporarily bullish in the short term [5] Ferrosilicon - Affected by international conflicts, the ferrosilicon price fluctuated upward during the day. The futures and options trading of ferrosilicon is open to qualified overseas investors. The molten iron output decreased slightly, the export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, and the marginal impact was small. The metal magnesium production increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand remained stable at a high level. The ferrosilicon supply continued to decline, and the market transaction level was average. The inventory decreased slightly. The ferrosilicon is temporarily bullish in the short term [6]

地缘局势和经贸谈判关键窗口期，联储再度短期观望 ——2025 年 6 月份美联储议息会议点评 国投期货研究院 朱赫 期货投资咨询号 Z0015192 靳顺柔子 期货投资咨询号 Z0014424 事件：货币政策方面，美联储如期按兵不动，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25% 至 4.50%，符合会议前的市场预期。总的来看，尽管声明上美联储指出了近期关税的"不 确定性"，且"滞胀"的风险有所降低，但在点阵图上又传递了关于今年降息门槛更高 的信号，因此两方面因素共同作用下仍然是一个中性的信号，和此前美联储的观望状态 变化不大。美股冲高回落整体呈现震荡格局，美债价格亦冲高回落，中概股收跌，原油 和黄金主要还是根据伊以局势的发展总体呈现小幅震荡回调。 点评： 一、会前关注点：观望立场开始松动？ 在 5 月份的议息会议上，美联储决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间保持在 4.25%至 4.5%，符合市场预期。会议声明偏中性，美联储在此次决议中表示出观望态度，警示了 关税带来的潜在的滞胀风险，并再次明确了"不确定性增加"，同时重申不急于采取先 发制人的决策。目前 Fed Watch 数据显示 6 月议息会议大概率维持利率不变。 ...

周四沪铜收低,伦铜再次测试MA20日均线,若失守价格短线将再回9500美元。国内现铜报78680元,上海升水缩 至145元，周内社库减少1800吨至14.59万吨。隔夜美联储维持利率不变，继续下调经济增速预期。空头持有。 (铝&氧化铝) 今日沪铝小幅回落，华东现货升水收窄10元至180元。今日铝锭社库较周一下降0.9万吨，铝棒增加0.3万吨。近 期低库存状态造成Back结构加深短期有利于多头，指数持仓激增至60万手以上警惕资金转向。下游开工持续走 弱,预计现货价格向上空间有限,关注负反馈能否在库存上兑现以及月差收窄后的盘面洁空机会。铸造铝合金 期货盘面小幅上涨，保太ADC12报价回落100元至19600元，旺季合约出现一定升水。铝和铸造铝合金现货价差扩 大至千元以上，但盘面AL2511与AD2511价差仅在400元左右，如有扩大考虑多AD空AL介入。近期氧化铝现货成交 稀少,各地指数价格持续回落至3200元以下,几内亚矿石在75美元趋稳对应山西成本在3000元附近。行业利润 修复后国内运行产能连续四周回升至9200万吨以上,过剩压力下期货贴水如继续修复考虑反弹治空参与。 【锌】 6月13日当周LME锌投资基金 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil is expected to remain oscillating with a slightly upward trend, and the spread of SC over Brent is expected to rise [1]. - Precious metals are recommended to be on the sidelines due to the repeated risk - aversion sentiment [2]. - Short positions in copper are recommended to be held [3]. - For aluminum, attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread [4]. - For cast aluminum alloy, consider taking a long position in AD and a short position in AL when the spread widens [5]. - For alumina, consider short - selling on rebounds if the futures discount continues to repair [6]. - For zinc, short - term short positions can partially take profit, and there may be opportunities to cover short positions at high levels [7]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Short positions in nickel are recommended to be held [9]. - A small number of short positions in far - month tin contracts are recommended to be held [10]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - Industrial silicon is expected to mainly oscillate, with the main trend remaining bearish [12]. - Polysilicon is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly downward trend [13]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [14]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate [15]. - The upward space of coke and coking coal prices should not be overly optimistic [16][17]. - The price of manganese silicon is still under pressure [18]. - For ferrosilicon, observe the sustainability of inventory reduction [19]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [20]. - The cracking of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be under pressure [21]. - For asphalt, wait for the layout opportunity after the risk of geopolitical premium of crude oil is removed [22]. - Liquefied petroleum gas is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend [23]. - The urea futures market remains strong, but be wary of the tightening of export policies [24]. - For methanol, closely monitor relevant data and be wary of a high - level decline in the market if the conflict eases [25]. - For styrene, the price is mainly guided by oil prices, and the fundamentals are relatively stable [26]. - For polypropylene and polyethylene, the market is mainly driven by geopolitical risks, and the supply - demand contradiction lacks improvement [27]. - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level, and caustic soda is under pressure at a high level [28]. - PX and PTA are strong in the short term but have potential risks in the medium term [29]. - Ethylene glycol is bullish in the short term and expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium term [30]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, the short - fiber supply - demand is improving, while the bottle - chip has potential for processing margin repair but with caution [31]. - Glass is recommended to be operated with caution due to the high - inventory and weak - demand pattern [32]. - For natural rubber and its related products, the strategy is to be bullish [33]. - Soda ash is recommended to adopt a high - level short - selling strategy [34]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, pay attention to weather changes and oil market fluctuations [35]. - For vegetable oils, a long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [36]. - For rapeseed and rapeseed oil, the short - term strategy changes from bullish to neutral [37]. - For soybeans No.1, pay attention to weather guidance [38]. - Corn futures are expected to continue to oscillate [39]. - For live pigs, pay attention to the weight - reduction rhythm of large farms [40]. - Egg prices are considered a rebound rather than a reversal [41]. - For cotton, the operation strategy is to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [42]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [43]. - For apples, wait and see and pay attention to bagging data [44]. - For wood, wait and see due to the weak price [45]. - For pulp, wait and see and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on significant pullbacks [46]. - For stock indices, pay attention to the investment opportunities in the science and technology growth sector and the subsequent development of macro - factors [47]. - Treasury bonds are expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend [48]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight, international oil prices oscillated. Brent 08 contract fell 1.44%, while SC08 contract rose 2.1%. The Israel - Iran conflict continues, and the US may directly intervene. European officials will hold nuclear negotiations with the Iranian foreign minister. Supply risks remain before the US confirms participation. Last week, US DOE crude oil inventories dropped significantly by 1.1473 billion barrels due to increased net exports [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oil prices rise due to geopolitical conflicts, and oil - related futures follow suit but with smaller increases. The Israel - Iran conflict boosts the geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil, but the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for shipping and power generation is affected by high cracking valuations. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant, and demand is weak [21]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, oil prices rise, and asphalt follows. The increase in asphalt production is limited. The shipments of 54 sample refineries are increasing, and terminal demand is expected to improve. Current inventory is declining, but the BU cracking is under pressure before the geopolitical risk of oil prices is removed [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle - East geopolitical conflict is still ongoing, and the international market is strong. Domestic chemical demand is recovering, but there is pressure on margins due to rising import costs. If geopolitical risks ease, supply pressure may lead to a decline. The market is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals declined. The Fed maintained interest rates, and the dot - plot shows a split on rate - cut expectations. The Israel - Iran conflict intensifies, and risk - aversion sentiment is repeated. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper oscillated and closed lower. Pay attention to the change in US copper tariff premium. The Fed maintained interest rates and lowered economic growth expectations. Short positions are recommended to be held [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum oscillated. The low - inventory situation deepens the Back structure, which is beneficial to long positions in the short term. However, downstream开工 is weakening, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [4]. - **Zinc**: The actual delivery of SHFE zinc 06 contract was 8,675 tons, and the 07 contract has a high position. The supply - demand in June is weak. Short - term short positions can partially take profit, and there may be opportunities to cover short positions at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The high inventory of the outer market may open the import window. The market rumor of Tianneng's production cut led to a decline in SHFE lead. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel declined. The upstream price support weakened, and inventory increased. It is in a bearish trend, and short positions are recommended to be held [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin oscillated and closed lower. Pay attention to the import of tin concentrates in May. A small number of short positions in far - month contracts are recommended to be held [10]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market oscillated overnight. Supply is in the peak season, and port inventory is expected to increase. Demand is weak in the off - season, and the market is expected to oscillate [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Coke prices oscillated upward, and there is an expectation of the fourth round of price cuts. Coking coal prices oscillated narrowly. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the upward space of prices is limited [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon prices oscillated downward, and the price of manganese ore is under pressure. Ferrosilicon prices oscillated, and the supply - demand contradiction is small. Pay attention to the sustainability of inventory reduction [18][19]. - **Steel**: Night - session steel prices rose first and then fell. The off - season demand for rebar is weakening, and the inventory reduction slows down. The demand for hot - rolled coil is resilient, but inventory is accumulating. The market is expected to oscillate [14]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: Iranian methanol plants have large - scale shutdowns and production cuts, and the shipping safety risk in the Strait of Hormuz increases. However, port inventory is low, and the expected rapid inventory build - up is likely to fail. The market is excited, but be wary of a decline if the conflict eases [25]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical risks lead to large oil - price fluctuations, which guide styrene prices. The supply of styrene increases, and the demand maintains a rigid support [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Geopolitical risks drive the polyolefin market. The demand for polyethylene is in the off - season, and the supply - demand contradiction lacks improvement. Polypropylene is also in the off - season, and the supply pressure increases [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC has a high - supply and weak - demand pattern, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda supply is high, and the price is under pressure at a high level [28]. - **PX & PTA**: PX and PTA opened high and then fell. The polyester filament sales are weak, and there is a risk of decline in the medium term [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol fluctuated overnight. The supply is affected by the Middle - East conflict, and the industry supply - demand is slightly weakening. There are plans for large - scale plant maintenance, which may support the price [30]. Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The Israel - Iran conflict affects oil prices and soybean meal. The US soybean good - rate is slightly lower than expected, and weather is favorable for growth. Pay attention to weather changes and oil market fluctuations [35]. - **Vegetable Oils**: Vegetable oil prices are rising, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips due to the development of biodiesel [36]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The impact of external factors is not fully digested. The risk of dry weather in North America adds a weather premium. The short - term strategy changes from bullish to neutral [37]. - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures were weak overnight. The substitution of wheat for corn exists, and inventory is going through destocking. The futures are expected to oscillate [39]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Live Pigs**: The futures price rebounded slightly, and the policy aims to stabilize prices. However, there is still pressure on pig supply in the later stage [40]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price rebounded, and the spot price is stable. There is short - term support from demand, but it is considered a rebound rather than a reversal [41]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices oscillated. The US cotton good - rate decreased, and the planting rate increased. Domestic cotton trading is average, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [42]. - **Sugar**: Overnight, ICE sugar oscillated. Brazilian production data is bearish. Domestic sugar imports are low, and inventory pressure is light. The price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. Market demand is declining, and the focus is on the new - season production estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The futures price oscillated. The import volume of radiata pine is expected to be low in June, and demand is relatively good in the off - season. Inventory is going through destocking, but the price is weak [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper - pulp futures price rose slightly. Port inventory is high, and demand is weak. The price is low, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on significant pullbacks [46]. Financials - **Stock Indices**: A - shares oscillated narrowly. The Fed maintained interest rates, and the geopolitical situation is tense. Pay attention to investment opportunities in the science and technology growth sector and the development of macro - factors [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury - bond market oscillated, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. The consumer goods trade - in policy is ongoing, and the bond market is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend [48].

(棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，国内棉花成交一般,基差稳中偏强，中美谈判别好对于价格有所提振，但具体细节仍有待观察。纯棉纱成 交依旧偏清淡，主要淡季行情下下游需求仍旧不足，市场信心弱，看涨情绪不高。从目前中美谈判情况来看，虽然表态比较积 极，但落实到具体措施仍有较多不确定性。市场对于后期库存有偏紧的预期，截至5月底棉花商业库存为345.87万吨，环比减少 69.39万吨，同比减少31.54万吨，棉花消化仍然偏好。国内5月进口4万吨，创近10年新低，同比降22万吨，探化降2万吨。操作 上暂时观望或逢低轻仓做多。 | | | | Millio | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月18日 | | 棉花 | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F02 ...

Report Core View - The overall situation of agricultural products presents complex trends, with different varieties affected by factors such as weather, policies, and geopolitical situations. There are differences in price trends and investment outlooks among various agricultural products [2][3][4] Summary by Variety Soybean - Domestic soybeans continued to rise today, but the domestic soybean bidding procurement failed. In terms of price difference, domestic soybeans are weaker than imported soybeans. Imported soybeans will be driven by weather in the medium - term, and the long - term US biodiesel policy is bullish, making CBOT soybeans price resistant. In the short term, the weather in Northeast China is conducive to soybean growth [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict has led to a rise in crude oil and strong performance of US soybeans. Dalian soybean meal closed flat. The continuous strong rise of domestic soybean oil may suppress the increase of soybean meal. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is 66%, slightly lower than expected. Future US weather is favorable for soybean growth. There are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade. Pay attention to the fluctuations in the oil sector and the potential price increase driven by bad weather from June to August [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - As the price of oil rises, the soybean crushing profit on the futures market improves, and the market shows a situation of strong oil and weak meal. The spot basis weakens as the futures oil price rises. Driven by the US biodiesel policy, the long - term upward elasticity of oil is large, and the price of CBOT soybeans is resistant [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The prices of rapeseed products continued to rise slightly. The positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased, and the spread between September and January of rapeseed meal narrowed. The impact of factors such as foreign biodiesel and geopolitics has not been fully digested. There is a risk of dry weather in North American oilseed growing areas, and the oilseed futures price includes a weather premium. The price difference between domestic rapeseed oil and other oils is relatively high, and terminal consumption is not strong. The price increase of rapeseed oil mainly comes from the uncertainty of future imports. In general, the price of rapeseed products has room to rise in the medium - term but may face price pressure from the demand side in the short - term [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures rose and then fell. The bullish sentiment affected by wheat policy has weakened. The price difference between new wheat and corn is about 30 yuan/ton, and some feed enterprises are substituting. Corn traders expect future price increases. The supply in Shandong is at a low level and slightly increased today. The inventory in north and south ports is decreasing, and the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is declining. The potential reduction of 1 million sows in China may affect feed consumption, and corn futures may continue to fluctuate [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures rebounded slightly with narrow market fluctuations, and the spot price remained stable. The government plans to reduce the number of sows by about 1 million to 3.95 million. Policy aims to stabilize pig prices, but the industry still faces large pressure of pig出栏 in the later period [8] Eggs - The near - month egg futures rebounded significantly, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase in some areas. The bottom - fishing sentiment was released as egg prices entered a low - level range, and the upcoming Mid - Autumn Festival demand and 618 promotion supported the price. However, due to the release of production capacity and the normal old - hen culling rate, the price increase is considered a rebound rather than a reversal [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for different commodities are as follows: Threaded steel and hot-rolled steel are rated ★★★; Iron ore is rated ★☆☆; Coke is rated ★★★; Coking coal is rated ☆☆☆; Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are rated ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall market is characterized by weak domestic demand, with different commodities showing varying trends and uncertainties. Most commodities are expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term, and the market is closely watching terminal demand and relevant policies at home and abroad [2][3] Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel market continues to oscillate. Threaded steel demand is in the off-season, with declining apparent demand and production and a slowdown in inventory reduction. Hot-rolled steel demand remains resilient, but high production leads to continued inventory accumulation. Iron ore production is gradually falling but remains at a relatively high level. Negative feedback expectations continue to ferment. Domestic demand is weak, and the market is cautious. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is slightly weaker. Supply is expected to increase, with global shipments in the peak season and expected end-of-quarter volume surges. Domestic arrivals are expected to rebound. Port inventories are likely to stop falling and start rising. Terminal demand is weak in the off-season, and steel mill profitability is down. The market is expected to oscillate due to uncertainties [3] Coke - Coke prices are oscillating upward. Iron ore production has slightly declined but remains at 241. There is an expectation of a fourth price cut, and coking profits have shrunk. Coke inventory has slightly decreased, and traders' purchasing willingness is low. The price rebound space is not overly optimistic due to inventory pressure [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are oscillating narrowly. Production is slightly declining due to environmental inspections and other factors. Spot auction transactions have improved slightly, and terminal inventory is decreasing. The price rebound space is limited due to inventory pressure [6] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices are oscillating downward. A large steel mill's tender price has decreased. Inventory has decreased due to previous production cuts, but weekly production is rising. Manganese ore prices are under pressure, and the market is expected to remain weak [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices are oscillating. Supply is decreasing, and demand is generally okay. Export demand is stable, and metal magnesium production is rising. Some producers may use a trading model to help with inventory reduction, and the sustainability of inventory reduction needs to be observed [8]

| 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 2025年06月18日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 中东地缘冲突仍在发酵，伊朗PQ生产与出口风险仍然不低、国际市场维持偏强运行。目前国内化工需求虽有回升， 关注进口成本走高后毛利回落的压力。月中到岸量和炼厂气外放约维持增长，苦地缘风险缓释,供给压力会带来较 强下行驱动。基本面仍有一定宽松压力,原油强势和政治风险支撑下盘面维持震荡偏强。 亚盘时段国际油价小幅回落,国内SC原油期货太幅上涨6.17%。伊以冲突仍在持续,且美国直接接入的可能性增 加，在美伊重返谈判桌前中东供应 ...