2025/6/10 USDA周度大豆玉米生长报告 // 国投期货 宋腾 Z0021166 截至6月8日当周，美国大豆优良率为68％，市场预期为68％，前一周为67％，去年同期为72％。大豆种植率为 90%，大豆出苗率为75%，整体符合报告前各方预期。美国玉米优良率为71%，高于市场预期的70%，前一周为 点评 69%，去年同期为74%。玉米种植率为97%，玉米出苗率为87%。天气上，在未来两周大部分美大豆玉米产区降雨 高于同期平均值，温度也高于同期平均值，有利于大豆玉米的种植生长。时间上逐步进入天气交易窗口，投资者需密 切关注6-8月天气变化所带来的驱动变化。 王米 大豆 单位：% 本期数据 上期数据 5年平均 去年同期 单位：% 本期数据 5年平均 ┣期数据 夫年同期 播种率 90 84 播种率 97 88 86 d3 97 94 出苗率 出苗率 75 63 72 ୧୫ 87 78 87 83 优良率 优良率 ୧୫ 67 72 71 ea 74 USDA美国大豆播种率 USDA美国玉米播种率 100 100 90 80 80 70 摇 轴 率 5 午 3 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 5/2 5/ ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The methanol market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the possibility of tight supply in East China ports due to the ship - age limit [2]. - Urea prices are falling due to weak downstream demand and lower - than - expected export demand [3]. - The polyolefin market has weak fundamentals, with supply pressure and limited demand [4]. - PX and PTA are expected to be under pressure, and PTA can consider far - month reverse spreads [6]. - Ethylene glycol market sentiment is weak with port inventory accumulation and possible weakening demand [6]. - Short fiber prices follow raw materials, and there is a possibility of enterprise production cuts in the off - season [6]. - Bottle - grade PET may face inventory accumulation pressure, and industry production cuts may be realized [6]. - PVC futures prices may fluctuate at a low level due to weak supply - demand patterns [7]. - Caustic soda futures prices are under pressure at a high level due to high - supply and general non - aluminum demand [7]. - Glass prices are weak, and cautious operation is recommended [8]. - Soda ash futures prices are expected to be mainly bearish with supply pressure [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Coastal basis continues to strengthen, with high import arrivals, increased port inventory, and sufficient domestic supply. The market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the impact of the ship - age limit in Jiangsu Maritime needs attention [2]. Urea - Futures prices have been falling. Agricultural demand is scattered, industrial demand is weakening, and production enterprises are accumulating inventory. Exports are advancing slowly, and prices are declining [3]. Polyolefins - Futures contracts fluctuate narrowly. Polyethylene has medium - to - high maintenance losses, and supply pressure remains. Demand in the agricultural film sector is in the off - season, and inventory may accumulate slightly [4]. Styrene - Futures contracts rebound. The cost side has no obvious one - way drive, supply is expected to increase, and demand may also increase slightly, resulting in a stalemate [5]. Polyester - PX and PTA are under pressure due to upstream production increases and downstream load reductions. PTA can consider far - month reverse spreads. Ethylene glycol has inventory accumulation and weak market sentiment. Short fiber orders are weak, and bottle - grade PET may face inventory pressure and production cuts [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices are rising due to cost increases but may fluctuate at a low level due to supply pressure and weak demand. Caustic soda has high - supply and general non - aluminum demand, with prices under pressure at a high level [7]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices are falling, with weak production and sales. Attention should be paid to production line changes. Soda ash prices are weak, with supply expected to increase and downstream replenishment willingness being weak [8].

Report Investment Rating - No information available Core Viewpoints - The proportion of short positions in commodities has slightly increased, with differentiation in the precious metals sector and a slight rebound in the agricultural products sector. Currently, the relatively strong sectors are agricultural products and precious metals, while the relatively weak one is energy and chemicals [2]. - In terms of strategy net worth, different factors showed varying trends last week, and the comprehensive signals for different commodities this week are either long, short, or neutral [4][7]. Summaries by Relevant Content Commodity Market Conditions - Precious metals: Gold's time - series momentum declined, while the marginal position of Shanghai silver increased, and short - cycle momentum significantly recovered [2]. - Non - ferrous metals: There were some differences in positions, and the cross - sectional differentiation narrowed, with copper remaining relatively strong [2]. - Black metals: The term structure differentiation narrowed, the position factors of iron ore and rebar increased, and short - cycle momentum factors rose [2]. - Energy and chemicals: The overall short - cycle momentum declined [2]. - Agricultural products: The positions of oilseeds and meals slightly increased, and palm oil remained relatively strong in the term structure [2]. Factor Returns | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | 0.55 (Methanol), - 0.23 (Float glass), - 0.07 (Iron ore), - 0.07 (Aluminum) | 0.00 (Float glass), 0.42 (Iron ore), - 0.19 (Aluminum) | | Demand | 0.00 (Methanol), 0.00 (Float glass), 0.00 (Iron ore), 0.00 (Aluminum) | 0.54 (Methanol), 0.00 (Float glass), - 0.45 (Aluminum) | | Inventory | - 0.19 (Methanol), 0.82 (Float glass), 0.00 (Iron ore), 0.12 (Aluminum) | 0.99 (Methanol), 0.91 (Float glass), - 0.44 (Aluminum) | | Spread | 0.41 (Methanol), 1.11 (Float glass), 0.28 (Iron ore), - 0.28 (Aluminum) | 0.41 (Methanol), 0.28 (Iron ore), - 0.75 (Aluminum) | | Synthetic Factor | 0.43 (Methanol), 0.63 (Float glass), 0.09 (Iron ore), - 0.07 (Aluminum) | 0.27 (Methanol), 0.70 (Float glass), 0.09 (Iron ore), - 0.47 (Aluminum) | [3][4][7] Momentum and Structure Data of Different Sectors | Sector | Momentum Time - series | Momentum Cross - section | Term Structure | Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black Metals | | 0.09 | 0 | - 0.08 | | Non - ferrous Metals | 0.05 | - 0.21 | 0.52 | 1.13 | | Energy and Chemicals | - 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.37 | 0.69 | | Agricultural Products | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.41 | - 0.19 | | Stock Index | - 0.71 | 0.46 | - 0.63 | 1.06 | | Precious Metals | 0.12 | | | 0.88 | [5] Fundamental Factors of Different Commodities - **Methanol**: The domestic device capacity utilization rate increased, the supply - side long - position intensity weakened to neutral; traditional downstream manufacturers' raw material procurement decreased, the demand side was neutral to bearish; inland and port inventories continued to increase, the inventory side was bearish; the market price in East and South China coastal areas released a long - position signal, and the spread side was neutral to bullish [4]. - **Float glass**: The enterprise start - up load decreased slightly, the supply side remained neutral; second - tier city commercial housing transaction data released a long - position signal but with weakened intensity, the demand side was neutral to bullish; the inventory of Shanxi enterprises decreased, the inventory side was bullish; the Shenyang - Shahe regional spread factor released a long - position signal, and the spread side was neutral to bullish [7]. - **Iron ore**: The cumulative amount of raw ore continued to decline, the supply - side signal turned neutral; the monthly output of WSA blast furnace pig iron in China continued to decline, the demand - side signal turned neutral; the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore concentrate continued to decline, the inventory side remained neutral; the freight rate of Brazilian Tubarao to Qingdao continued to decline, the spread - side signal remained neutral [7]. - **Aluminum**: SMM domestic lead concentrate processing fees continued to decline, the supply - side signal remained bearish; China's lead alloy exports in May continued to decrease compared to April, the demand - side signal remained neutral; SMM aluminum concentrate monthly balance continued to decline, the inventory side turned neutral; the 0 - 1 spread declined, the spread - side signal remained bearish [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the demand for caustic soda from the perspective of alumina and the reasons behind the sharp fluctuations in the caustic soda market this year. It points out that although alumina has a large capacity growth rate, most of the new alumina production uses imported bauxite with low caustic soda consumption, resulting in limited growth in caustic soda demand. In the second half of this year, caustic soda faces the pressure of supply - demand surplus due to new production capacity [2][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Imported Bauxite Has Low Caustic Soda Consumption - Alumina is the largest downstream consumer of caustic soda, accounting for 30%. The demand for caustic soda is affected by the alumina production growth rate and bauxite quality. The Bayer process, which uses caustic soda, is the mainstream method for alumina production, accounting for over 90% in China and over 95% globally [3]. - In alumina production, caustic soda is used to process bauxite. Theoretically, 0.14 - 0.16 tons of caustic soda are consumed to produce 1 ton of alumina using the Bayer process. However, due to different bauxite qualities, the caustic soda consumption varies. Imported bauxite has a high alumina - silica ratio and low silicon content, resulting in low caustic soda consumption [6][7]. - Specifically, domestic bauxite has an alumina - silica ratio of 4 - 6, with a caustic soda consumption of 0.17 - 0.2 tons per ton of alumina; Australian bauxite has an alumina - silica ratio of 6 - 8, with a caustic soda consumption of 0.11 - 0.14 tons per ton of alumina; Guinean bauxite has a high alumina - silica ratio, with a caustic soda consumption of 0.05 - 0.07 tons per ton of alumina [7]. 3.2 The Proportion of Imported Bauxite Has Increased Significantly - China's bauxite reserves are relatively scarce, accounting for less than 2% of the global total. Domestic bauxite supply has been tight, leading to an increase in the proportion of imported bauxite, which has risen to over 70% and is expected to continue increasing in 2025 [10]. - Domestic bauxite is mainly distributed in Guangxi, Henan, Guizhou, and Shanxi. Imported bauxite mainly comes from Guinea, Australia, and Indonesia. Currently, China mainly imports bauxite from Guinea and Australia, accounting for 70% and 25% respectively [12]. 3.3 Alumina Production Areas' Use of Bauxite - Shandong has the largest alumina production capacity, accounting for 29%, and uses all imported bauxite due to its coastal import advantage. Provinces without bauxite resources, such as Chongqing, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia, rely entirely on imported bauxite. Guizhou and Yunnan mainly rely on domestic bauxite, while Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi still mainly use domestic bauxite, but the proportion of imported bauxite is increasing [13]. - In 2023, the top three destinations for imported bauxite in China were Shandong (34%), Shanxi (33%), and Guangxi (10%) [13]. 3.4 Alumina's Caustic Soda Consumption Has Decreased in Recent Years - In the past decade, although alumina production has been increasing, the replacement of domestic bauxite with imported bauxite, especially the significant increase in the proportion of Guinean imports, has led to a decrease in caustic soda consumption per unit of alumina. Therefore, alumina expansion does not necessarily mean an increase in caustic soda demand [18]. 3.5 The New Alumina Production in 2025 Has Limited Impact on Caustic Soda Demand - In 2025, the new alumina production capacity is about 1.13 billion tons, an increase of 11.2%. Most of the new production uses imported bauxite with low caustic soda consumption. The new production has already achieved an increase of 620,000 tons, and there are still 510,000 tons of capacity to be put into production [23]. - Through theoretical calculations, the new alumina production in 2025 will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 835,900 tons, with a demand growth rate of about 2.2% compared to 2024. Although the alumina capacity growth rate is large, the actual growth in caustic soda demand is limited [24]. 3.6 Summary - At the beginning of 2025, the caustic soda futures price rose significantly due to the expected strong demand from alumina production and low inventory. After the Spring Festival, high caustic soda profits led to high - level production, while the falling alumina price raised concerns about postponed production, resulting in a rapid increase in liquid caustic soda inventory and a sharp decline in the futures price [26]. - In the second half of this year, caustic soda faces the pressure of supply - demand surplus. The planned new caustic soda production capacity in the second half of the year is 3.06 million tons, an increase of 6.26% [26][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Recommend shorting zinc as the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the "rush to export" and the tariff implementation, and the supply from the mining end is increasing in the second quarter. There is a possibility that the weak demand will be transmitted upstream, exacerbating the surplus of zinc and pushing the Shanghai zinc price below 21,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Short copper above 79,500 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at this price, as there is strong resistance at the previous downward gap and the consumption is weakening [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market sentiment**: The US premium accelerates the outflow of LME copper inventory, raising the spot premium. The market is trading on the expectation of the US raising metal tariffs. The Sino - US manufacturing PMI is mostly in the contraction range, and the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in June. The market is waiting for the US inflation data [1]. - **Domestic supply and demand**: The import ore TC is below $40 and may not decline further. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference may stabilize at 1,200 yuan due to weakening consumption. The domestic refined copper output is expected to increase. The spot premium in Shanghai and Guangdong has narrowed, and the social inventory is oscillating at 149,500 tons. The domestic consumption is weakening, and the refinery's export is expected to increase [1]. - **Overseas situation**: Peru's copper output is expected to increase slightly to 2.8 million tons this year. The KK copper mine in Congo - Kinshasa may resume production at the end of the month. Attention should be paid to the LME visible inventory and the US copper price [1]. - **Trend**: Short - position holders should consider changing contracts, and stop - loss above 79,500 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina has increased after the profit repair, with the operating capacity increasing by 1.35 million tons to 90.65 million tons last week. The inventory has decreased by 29,000 tons to 3.133 million tons. The spot market has few transactions, and the ex - factory price in the northwest has dropped to 3,200 yuan. The alumina market has an over - supply situation. Consider shorting on rallies in the futures market. The price of Guinea ore is stable at $75, and the downside of alumina is limited [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is around 4.3 million tons, with no expected reduction in the short term [1]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of related enterprises has increased by 17 percentage points to 60.9%. The demand for aluminum plates and strips has weakened, and the operating rate of some enterprises has decreased. The aluminum cable sector's enthusiasm for procurement and production has declined. The operating rate of the aluminum profile sector is divided, with the construction and photovoltaic sectors weak, while the 3C and power sectors have some support [1]. - **Inventory and spot**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased by 42,000 tons to 477,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum rods has increased by 2,000 tons to 180,000 tons. The inventory is at a low level in recent years. The spot premium in East China has narrowed by 40 yuan to 70 yuan, the premium in Central China has narrowed by 50 yuan to 10 yuan, and the discount in South China has widened by 20 yuan to 60 yuan. The processing fee of South China aluminum rods has slightly decreased to below 300 yuan [1]. - **Trend**: The market risk preference is improving, but the center of the Shanghai aluminum price has slightly declined. The aluminum market is in a de - stocking phase, but the demand may face challenges. The Shanghai aluminum price faces resistance at 20,300 yuan. Consider short - selling on rallies [1]. Zinc - **Market situation**: The Shanghai zinc price has been in a narrow - range consolidation, and the technical pattern is at the end of a triangle. The zinc spot import window is closed [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The overseas zinc ore output is expected to increase in the second quarter, and the import volume of zinc concentrate in May is expected to remain high. The smelter's raw material inventory is at a high level of 27.72 days. The CZSPT group's import zinc concentrate procurement dollar processing fee guidance price for the third quarter is in the range of $80 - 100 per dry ton. The smelters are resuming production after maintenance, and the refined zinc output in June is expected to increase by 40,000 tons to over 590,000 tons. The social inventory has increased by 4,300 tons to 81,700 tons, and the LME zinc inventory has decreased to 137,000 tons, with a deep discount of $35.6 per dry ton for 0 - 3 months, indicating weak overseas demand. The import window may open briefly in June if the US dollar index weakens [1]. - **Consumption**: The "rush to export" is ending, and the consumption expectation is under pressure. The domestic special bonds are being issued faster than expected, but the infrastructure projects' physical demand will be realized after the rainy season. The photovoltaic installation peak has ended, and the "trade - in" policy has over - drawn the demand. Both domestic and overseas demand are under pressure in June [1]. - **Trend**: In June, the supply is increasing while the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing, and the price is falling with increasing positions. Hold short positions established at previous high levels [1]. Lead - **Market situation**: The lead price has been in a narrow - range fluctuation due to insufficient demand and the inverted refined - scrap price [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The SMM lead social inventory has increased to 53,400 tons, and the SMM 1 lead average price has a discount of 170 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 236,300 tons, with a discount of $26.98 per dry ton for 0 - 3 months. Some recycled lead smelters have reduced production due to environmental inspections and losses. The primary lead smelters' production increase space is limited due to raw material shortages. The supply of waste batteries is in short supply, and the import loss of lead ingots is still over 600 yuan/ton [1]. - **Consumption**: The battery enterprises' operating rate has recovered after the holiday, but the overall consumption is still weak. Lead - acid battery enterprises are willing to buy at low prices. The automobile battery brands are promoting sales, and there are rumors of price increases for electric bicycle batteries. The dealers are mainly digesting inventory [1]. - **Trend**: The price is supported by cost and pressured by consumption. The Shanghai lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Futures market**: The Shanghai nickel price has rebounded, and the trading volume is light. The Shanghai stainless steel price is slightly weaker, and the closing price is at 12,705 yuan, with stable positions [1]. - **Macro and demand**: Geopolitical and tariff - related changes have led to an improvement in risk preference, reducing the short - and medium - term concerns about demand decline. The spot market transactions are mainly for rigid demand [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,400 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 7,100 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 150 yuan. The loading of nickel mines in the Philippines has been delayed due to rain. The price of high - grade nickel ore is at 953 yuan per nickel point. The nickel ore inventory has increased by 2,000 tons to 31,500 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 2,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has increased by 16,000 tons to 983,000 tons [1]. - **Conclusion and strategy**: Wait for the opportunity to short as the Shanghai nickel price rebounds [1]. Tin - **Market situation**: The tin price has rebounded significantly, with the LME tin price rising by more than 6.7%. The Shanghai tin weighted price has returned above 262,000 yuan after recovering the annual line. The market is focusing on the tight supply of tin concentrate in China [1]. - **Supply**: A smelter in Wa State may not be able to produce large quantities in the short term, and the inventory is low. The supply in southern Myanmar may be affected by environmental protection, and the domestic tin concentrate supply is expected to be tight for a longer time. The domestic refined tin output in May decreased by 0.3% to 14,670 tons and is expected to further decrease to 13,800 tons in June. The supply of recycled tin in Jiangxi is also restricted by raw materials [1]. - **Consumption**: The SMM tin social inventory has decreased by 216 tons to 8,856 tons. The consumption is weakening, and the orders of photovoltaic and electronic enterprises have decreased. The LME tin inventory has decreased to 2,440 tons, with a spot premium of $50 for 0 - 3 months [1]. - **Trend**: The tin price is expected to continue to oscillate to balance the domestic supply and demand situation. Pay attention to the overseas consumption. Consider reducing some short positions or moving to far - month contracts when the Shanghai tin price rebounds close to the previous high of 265,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures market**: The lithium carbonate futures price has been oscillating at a low level, and the price has been fluctuating around 60,000 yuan. The trading volume is active, and the positions have decreased by 8,000 lots to 566,000 lots [1]. - **Spot performance**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 60,300 yuan, with a weekly stable price. The price difference between industrial - grade and battery - grade is 1,600 yuan. Some non - integrated lithium salt plants have increased their operating rates after hedging [1]. - **Macro and demand**: The material factories are generally producing actively. The energy - storage orders have recovered, but the power orders have slightly decreased. The overall weekly production has increased [1]. - **Supply factors**: The total market inventory has increased by 800 tons to 132,400 tons, the downstream inventory has decreased by 540 tons to 41,000 tons, the smelter inventory has increased to 57,000 tons, and the intermediate inventory has increased by 500 tons. The Australian ore price is $607.5 [1]. - **Trend**: The downward trend of the lithium carbonate futures price has slowed down. Consider participating in short - term rebound trading [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: The price has rebounded from a low level of 7,000 yuan/ton to above 7,400 yuan/ton due to oversold technical indicators [1]. - **Spot**: The SMM Huayangtong 553 silicon liquid average price is 8,150 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton week - on - week. The downstream replenishment sentiment is weak [1]. - **Supply**: A large factory in Xinjiang has resumed production, and the operating rate in other regions has changed slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: The SMM social inventory is 587,000 tons, with a decrease of 2,000 tons week - on - week. The ordinary inventory is 135,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons, and the delivery inventory is 452,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The price of polysilicon N - type is stable. The polysilicon production in June is expected to be 98,800 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons month - on - month. In the organic silicon field, the DMC inventory has decreased by nearly 30% in May, and the DMC production in June is expected to be 205,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons [1]. - **Summary**: In June, the industrial silicon may still have a slight inventory pressure. The price may rebound in the short term due to technical factors, but the downward trend remains. Pay attention to the MA20 resistance level [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The futures price's oscillation center has moved down, and the main contract is near the key level of 34,000 yuan/ton. The spot price is stable, with the large - factory dense re - feed material priced at 36,000 - 37,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Sichuan has entered the wet season, and leading enterprises plan to replace production capacity. The polysilicon production in June is expected to be 98,800 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons month - on - month. The factory inventory is 269,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons week - on - week [1]. - **Demand**: After the 531 policy node, the distributed orders have decreased, and the centralized projects are on hold. The component enterprises have raised the price, but the transactions are insufficient. The silicon wafer price is stable, and the production in June is expected to decrease by about 2GW [1]. - **Summary**: The component demand has decreased, while the polysilicon production is increasing. The inventory pressure is slightly rising, and the futures price is expected to continue to decline [1].

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer upward trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★☆★, suggesting a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals showed a strong and volatile trend. The recent recovery in market risk appetite has put some pressure on gold prices, while silver has benefited from the commodity rebound and broken through to reach a new high since 2012. As the three - month tariff suspension deadline approaches, Trump's tariff policy will continue to dominate the market. With geopolitical tensions in regions such as Russia and Ukraine remaining high, gold prices are supported by the strong level of $3000, and a buy - on - dips strategy is recommended. After silver breaks through, it opens up upside potential. This week, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism will be held in London, UK. Attention should be paid to whether it can release further easing signals [1] Other Key Information - The US Department of Justice has requested the court to extend the suspension period of the invalidation judgment of Trump's tariffs [2] - The US Congressional Budget Office estimates that it will exhaust measures to avoid hitting the debt ceiling between mid - August and the end of September [2] - The US Senate plans to introduce a major adjustment plan for the Trump tax reform bill this week [3] - The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the US plan regarding the Iran nuclear deal is "unacceptable"; the next round of Iran - US nuclear negotiations will be held on Sunday [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The bear market of coking coal is not over, but the decline slope may slow down. The recent sharp rise in coking coal futures prices is more likely a basis - repair rebound rather than a signal of reversal. The coking coal valuation will bottom out and stabilize only when terminal demand is boosted or supply is significantly reduced after the valuation is depressed [16][19] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Mongolia's Political Change and Coking Coal Supply - On June 3rd, Mongolia removed Prime Minister Oyun - Erdene, leading to market expectations of tightened coal export policies, with some expecting a 20% coal export resource tax increase. Currently, there is no policy adjustment, but even without supply - side disturbances, the supply of Mongolian coal will shrink as the current second - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is higher than the latest transaction price. The decline in the third - quarter long - term contract price needs to be awaited [3] - The previous decline of the coking coal futures 2509 contract price had already factored in the expected decline of about $6 in the third - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal, indicating that the decline rhythm of coking coal futures prices was relatively advanced [5][7] II. Domestic Coking Coal Supply - Although the overall supply of domestic coking coal mines remains high, there has been a continuous small - scale reduction in production for several weeks. Some large mines have reduced production due to full warehouses, some mines have been shut down for rectification due to accidents, and a small number of private mines have cut production due to losses. However, the overall reduction scale is not significant yet [9] - According to Fenwei Energy statistics, the average profit level of 227 mines from 88 enterprises across the country has been continuously compressed, and sample mines in Shaanxi are close to the break - even point. Some coking coal mines in certain regions have entered the loss zone, but most private coking coal mines are still far from cash - flow losses. A significant reduction in carbon element supply requires a further decline in the price center [12] III. Demand Side - Although there are concerns about the seasonal decline in steel terminal demand, the current daily hot metal output remains at around 2.4 million tons, maintaining high - level rigid demand for all furnace materials. The hot metal output from June to August this year may remain at a relatively high level of around 2.35 million tons per day, which may delay the negative feedback process of the entire ferrous metals [14] - The 5500K port price of thermal coal has been weakly stable at around 619 yuan/ton recently, with a year - to - date decline of 150 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decline of 260 yuan/ton. The arrival of the thermal coal consumption peak season may support the valuation of some blended coking coal [17]

莱系今日小幅上扬，莱粕略强于菜油。菜系市场主要关注加拿大莱籽产区天气与中加贸易关系。萨斯喀彻温省 油菜优良率为57%，差于过往两年的同期水平。阿尔伯塔省受限于春季以来降雨有限,土壤湿度呈现下滑趋势, 情况与2022年、2023年较为类似，参考历史上这两年的情况来看,6月份的降雨会对墒情大有益处,关注6月份 的降雨情况。中美双方在伦敦举行的中美经贸磋商机制首次会议备受关注，乐观预期提振了国内外油籽、油箱 期价。综合来看，国内菜系期价短期存在支撑，策略上仍以短多为主。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 | | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年06月10日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | 女女女 | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z001203 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年06月10日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价延续反弹，布伦特08合约涨0.72%。周一中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国开启，若 会议延续上周两国元首通话的乐观信号将弱化贸易战对经济及油品需求的负面影响，市场对这一情 景提前定价。在OPEC+7月增产短期利空出尽后，宏观面中美贸易战相关的风险情绪修复、旺季需求 改善、地缘犹动下制裁风险仍存对原油构成支撑，5月以来原油现货基差持续走强。二季度以来原油 库存累增2.1%、成品油库存累增0.8%，总体石油累库1.6%基本延续一季度累库速度。原油暂以反弹 空间有限定调，关注中美经贸磋商能否带动宏观预期的实质性扭转及周末第六轮美伊核会谈进展。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属偏强震荡。近期市场风险偏好修复给金价带来一定压力，但白银受益于商品的反弹向上 突破刷新2012年以来新高。随着关税暂缓三个月截止期的临近，特朗普关税政策将继续主导市场， 俄乌等地缘局势持续紧张,金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调买入思路,白银破位后打开上方空 间。 (铜) 隔夜铜价走高，伦铜库存流出速度加快，物流持续向美转移，且银价补涨。国内消 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors such as macro - economic data, trade negotiations, and supply - demand dynamics across different commodities and financial markets. Investors should pay attention to these factors and make investment decisions accordingly [1][19][34] - For most commodities, the market presents a complex situation with both supportive and restrictive factors, and specific investment strategies vary by commodity [3][8][20] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices rebounded with Brent 08 contract up 6.45%. Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations and improved macro - risk sentiment support oil prices after the short - term negative impact of OPEC+ production increase fades [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and supply is expected to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under a situation of weak supply and demand [20] - **Asphalt**: Supply growth lacks momentum, demand is seasonally increasing, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue with a strengthening BU crack spread [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Domestic refinery prices are weak, but supply pressure has decreased. The market is expected to remain in low - level oscillations [22] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Gold prices fell on Friday due to better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data, suppressing Fed rate - cut expectations. Gold is supported at $3000 and a buy - on - dip strategy is considered [2] - **Silver**: After breaking through resistance, silver has more upside potential [2] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME copper prices retreated, and inventory decreased. The Fed may keep rates unchanged, and the market focuses on US tariff negotiations. Short - term traders should consider stop - losses above 79,500 [3] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. De - stocking slowed, and the market is cautious about the transition from strong reality to weak expectations. Short - selling on price increases is recommended [4] - **Alumina**: Spot prices declined, and the long - term oversupply situation remains. Short - selling on price increases is advisable, but avoid chasing short positions after the futures discount widens [5] - **Zinc**: Supply is expected to increase while demand weakens. A short - selling strategy on price rebounds is maintained [6] - **Lead**: Lead prices are in a narrow range at the bottom. Cost support is strengthening, but demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [7] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices oscillated downward. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. A short - selling strategy on price rebounds is recommended [8] - **Tin**: Tin prices rebounded significantly. Supply may be tighter than expected, and inventory decreased. Consider reducing short positions or shifting to far - month contracts near 265,000 [9] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Futures prices oscillated. Inventory changes show positive market sentiment. The price decline slows, and a light - position participation in the oscillatory rebound is suggested [10] - **Polysilicon**: The market center of gravity moved downward. Demand is weak, and supply may increase. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices opened higher and then retraced. Supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [12] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The market oscillated. Supply is strong and has room for growth, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate with limited rebound space [14] - **Coke**: Prices rebounded significantly. Supply is relatively abundant, and the price rebound space is limited due to inventory pressure [15] - **Coking Coal**: Prices rebounded. Supply is still abundant, and the price rebound space is not overly optimistic [16] - **Manganese Silicon**: Prices rebounded driven by coking coal. Inventory decreased, but the fundamental improvement is limited. A light - position long - entry to test the rebound sustainability is recommended [17] - **Silicon Iron**: Prices rebounded driven by coking coal. Demand is fair, and supply is decreasing. Observe the sustainability of inventory reduction [18] Chemicals - **Urea**: Futures prices fell sharply last week. Agricultural demand is limited, and production enterprises are accumulating inventory. Short - term support at integer levels should be monitored [23] - **Methanol**: Coal prices are low, and methanol supply is expected to increase. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and the impact of shipping restrictions in Jiangsu should be noted [24] - **Styrene**: Supply is expected to increase, and the market sentiment is weak. Enterprises are reducing prices to sell [25] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Polyethylene supply is supported by maintenance, but demand is in the off - season. Polypropylene demand is weak, and supply pressure is increasing [26] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The price may oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda prices are weak, and supply is high [27] - **PX & PTA**: Prices oscillated weakly. Supply increased while downstream demand decreased. The price is expected to be under pressure [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices oscillated downward. Supply increased, and demand may weaken [29] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber demand is weak, and bottle - chip may face inventory pressure. Industry production cuts may occur [30] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Dalian soybean meal increased in volume last week. US soybeans are rebounding, and domestic soybean supply is becoming more abundant. Attention should be paid to weather changes from June to August [34] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Domestic soybean oil is stronger than palm oil. Weather will be a key factor for soybean prices. Overall, soybean and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range [35] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The market is influenced by trade relations and North American weather. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate, and in the medium - term, the price center may move up [36] - **Soybean No.1**: Domestic soybean prices rebounded slightly. Weather will be the main factor affecting prices in the medium - term [37] - **Corn**: Corn futures prices increased with reduced positions. Demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [38] - **Pig**: Pig prices decreased over the weekend. Supply is increasing, and short - term prices may continue to fall. Medium - term supply pressure may be reduced by policy [39] - **Egg**: Egg prices are expected to decline further. Near - month futures should be short - sold, and far - month futures do not have the conditions for a reversal [40] - **Cotton**: US cotton planting progress is slow, and domestic cotton demand is weak. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [41] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices oscillated. International supply is expected to be negative, and domestic sugar sales are good. Overall, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [42] - **Apple**: Apple futures prices oscillated. Market focus is on new - season production estimates. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [43] - **Timber**: Timber prices are weak. Supply may be limited, but demand is in the off - season. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [44] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices oscillated weakly. Inventory is relatively high, and demand is weak. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and long - entry opportunities on significant price drops should be noted [45] Others - **Container Freight Index (Europe Line)**: The spot price of the Europe line is rising strongly, but the US line may peak. The market should pay attention to trade negotiations, and short - selling should be cautious [19] - **Stock Index**: A - share market is lackluster, and the market is influenced by US non - farm payrolls data and trade negotiations. The market may recover if there are substantial trade progress [46] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures prices increased. The market is relatively stable, and long - entry opportunities after price drops can be considered [47]