| Million | > 国技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月11日 | | 影丙烯 | ななな | 塑料 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ☆☆☆ | PX | ☆☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | PTA | なな☆ | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | | | 短纤 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | な女女 | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 甲醇 | なな女 | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | PVC | ななな | 烧碱 | ★☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | 文文文 纯碱 | | ★☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇】 本周进口甲醇到港超40万吨，虽沿海表需增多但不敌进口货源到港增量，周期内港口累库幅度较大。国内 ...

Report Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★, indicating a clear long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market, advising to wait and see [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, with the same implication as hot rolled coil [1] - **Coke**: ★☆★, a mixed signal with some bullish drivers but unclear overall trend [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★, similar to coke [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and poor operability [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆, showing a bullish driver but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends for each product. The short - term market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and international trade situations. Some products are expected to have short - term oscillations, while the long - term outlook is influenced by factors like terminal demand and policy changes [1][2] Summary by Product Steel - The steel market is divided. Thread steel is in the off - season with declining demand and slower inventory reduction. Hot - rolled coil demand is falling while production is rising and inventory is accumulating. Iron - water production is gradually decreasing but still high, and the negative feedback expectation keeps fermenting. The downstream industries have different performances, with limited improvement in infrastructure, unstable real - estate sales, and high growth in automobile production and sales. The market rebounds in the short - term due to improved macro - sentiment, but the pessimistic demand expectation restricts the upside [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore market shows a rising trend today. The supply is strong with potential seasonal growth, and the port inventory is expected to stop falling and rise. The demand is weak in the off - season, but the short - term reduction in iron - water production is limited, and there is still mid - term negative feedback risk. The market sentiment has improved due to Sino - US talks, but there are still uncertainties in foreign trade. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [2] Coke - Coke prices are oscillating. Iron - water production is slightly decreasing, but coke production is still high due to existing profits. The overall inventory is slightly rising, and traders have no purchasing actions. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the price rebounds under certain conditions. The Sino - US tariff issue has a large impact [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are also oscillating. The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the future trend of production - end inventory is uncertain. Similar to coke, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the price rebounds under certain circumstances. The Sino - US tariff issue needs continuous attention [5] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese may start an independent market. The inventory has decreased due to previous production cuts, but the weekly production is rising. The price of manganese ore is expected to decline further due to increased supply and inventory. The iron - water production is slightly decreasing, and the supply of silicon manganese is slightly increasing. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short - term [6] Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices are mainly driven by coking coal. Iron - water production is slightly decreasing. The export demand is stable, and the secondary demand is high. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. Some producers may adopt a trading model to help with inventory reduction, and the sustainability of inventory reduction needs to be observed [7]

| | | | Millio | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月11日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ななな | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | 女女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，目前中美谈判传出来信息比较积极，关注具体情况。棉花现货成交一般,贸易商采购比较积极,甚差稳中 偏强。纯棉纱纺企顺价走货,市场信心不足,近期下游开机缓慢走低,成品库存有所增加，压力有所增加,反观棉花现货价格 坚挺，优质资源逐渐减少，基差持续偏强，市场对于后期库存有偏紧的预期，截至5月底棉花商业库存为 ...

| Milli | 国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月11日 | | 黄金 | な☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | ★鸟称谈论乌俄第三轮谈判的任何准备工作仍为时过早。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩:呼吁俄乌立即无条件停 火，持续至少30天。俄驻美大使：俄美新一轮会谈将于近期在莫斯科举行。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 隔夜贵金属震荡。近期市场风险偏好修复给金价带来一定压力，但白银受益于商品的反弹向上突破刷新2012 年以 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined in the given star - rating system [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined in the given star - rating system [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (indicating a bias towards a certain trend but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The report provides investment suggestions and market analysis for various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand situations, and trading strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Wednesday saw Shanghai copper close higher with a positive line. The spot copper price rose to 79,310 yuan, and the premium in Shanghai and Guangdong was 90 yuan. Traders are advised to focus on the US copper price. Short - position holders from the previous period should consider changing contracts, and stop - loss should be considered above 79,500 yuan [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum rose, and the spot premium in East China slightly expanded to 90 yuan. The aluminum market continued to reduce inventory this week, maintaining a low - inventory state. The demand faces challenges from seasonal decline and pre - exported volume. Shanghai aluminum tested the resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan again in the oscillation, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. Cast aluminum alloy followed the rise of Shanghai aluminum, and the monthly spread structure was consistent with that of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai ADC12 quotation remained stable at 19,400 yuan. It is expected to be mainly in a short - term oscillation, and the price difference with Shanghai aluminum may still decline during the off - season. The alumina spot has few transaction news recently, and the spot index remained stable around 3,300 yuan. After the industry profit is restored, the supply elasticity is large, and the domestic operating capacity has returned to over 90 million tons. The futures are expected to remain weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. The Guinea ore price is stable at 75 US dollars, corresponding to the cost in Shanxi around 3,000 yuan. It is not advisable to short - sell due to the large futures discount [3] Zinc - The phased alleviation of tariff concerns in the Sino - US London economic and trade consultations led to short - position reduction, driving the rebound of Shanghai zinc. The average price of SMM 0 zinc was reported at 22,300 yuan/ton, and the premium to the delivery - month contract changed to a discount of 15 yuan/ton. By the end of the trading session, the discount to the delivery - month contract was once as high as 185 yuan/ton. With only 3 trading days left until delivery, it is profitable to deliver goods to the warehouse. Attention should be paid to the change in the registered warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Fundamentally, the supply of ore has become looser, but the TC is generally at a low level. Shanghai zinc still has strong support around 21,500 yuan/ton. However, the raw material inventory of domestic smelters is at a high level of 27.7 days, and the output in June is expected to increase by 40,000 tons to 590,000 tons compared with the previous month. The consumption performance in the off - season is weak, and Shanghai zinc is still mainly recommended for short - selling on rallies [4] Tin - Shanghai tin rose with a positive line, using the MA60 moving average as the boundary for morphological strength. The current tin price was 265,800 yuan, and the premium of the spot to the delivery - month contract was 510 yuan. The market expects the domestic smelter tin output to continue to decline month - on - month in May and June. Some short positions were reduced or shifted to far - month contracts [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded, and the market trading was average. The overall market inventory remained stable at a high level, and the intermediate links increased inventory. The downstream replenishment and upstream inventory reduction continued, and the mentality of traders in the intermediate links changed positively, with the spot bottom - fishing sentiment continuing. The latest quotation of Australian ore was 607.5 US dollars, and the decline rate slowed down, indicating resistance at the ore end. The output of the mid - stream increased again, with a month - on - month increase of 7%. Technically, the decline of the lithium carbonate futures price slowed down, and the open interest indicated risk accumulation. The decline rate of Australian ore slowed down, and the core driving force of short - selling was delayed. It is recommended to participate in the rebound with a light position [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose with a reduction in positions, closing at 7,560 yuan/ton, and the market trading was active. The spot price remained stable compared with the previous day. Driven by the resumption of production of leading enterprises in Xinjiang, the supply of industrial silicon in June is expected to increase month - on - month. On the downstream demand side, the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises in June both increased month - on - month, but the monthly supply - demand balance estimate shows that industrial silicon may still have a slight inventory accumulation in June. In terms of the trading - floor performance, it is in a phased oscillatory adjustment driven by technical factors, and the short - cycle indicators show a large callback pressure. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up at the current position, and attention should be paid to the resistance performance of the MA20 moving average above [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rose with a reduction in positions, and the market trading was average. The spot price remained stable. According to SMM, the latest production schedule of polysilicon in June was revised up to 101,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. However, the production schedules of downstream silicon wafers and battery cells both decreased, and the fundamental improvement was limited. In terms of the trading - floor performance, it is close to the lower support level, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, waiting for a driving force [11]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜沪铝窄幅波动。周一铝锭社库较上周四去库2.7万吨，铝棒持平。铝市维持低库存现实，需求面 临李节性转淡和出口前置后的考验，关注现货反馈边际变化。沪铝暂时震荡在前期缺口20300元存 在阻力,逢高偏空参与。 【氧化铝】 综合晨报 2025年06月11日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价冲高回落，布伦特08合约跌0.79%。在持续对中美谈判乐观预期进行定价后，最新迹 象显示暂无超出日内瓦共识之外的增量进展，油价上行动力不足。上周美国API原油库存下降37万 桶不及此前预期，关注今晚EIA库存结果。在OPEC+7月增产短期利空出尽后，宏观面中美贸易战相 关的风险情绪修复、旺季需求改善、地缘犹动下制裁风险仍存一度对原油构成支撑，但能源转型超 势下的中期石油需求降速叠加OPEC+产量策略改变后供应的快速回归仍将限制短期利好的强度，原 油暂以反弹空间有限定调,继续关注中美经贸磋商能否带动宏观预期的实质性扣转。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡。近期市场风险偏好修复给金价带来一定压力,但白银受益于商品的反弹向上突破 刷新2012年以来新高。随着关税暂缓三个月截止期的临近，特朗普关 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Lead: Not clearly defined [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Not clearly defined [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and provides trading suggestions for each metal based on these factors [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper gave back its gains and closed lower. Short - term LME copper inventory outflow accelerated, with logistics shifting to the US, and the silver price increase drove the copper price. However, domestic consumption is entering the off - season. Short - term traders should consider stopping losses above 79,500 yuan and pay attention to the fluctuations of US copper [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum declined slightly, with the spot premium in East China at 70 yuan. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 27,000 tons on Monday compared to last Thursday, while that of aluminum rods remained unchanged. The aluminum market maintains a low - inventory situation, but demand faces challenges from seasonal decline and pre - exported consumption. Shanghai aluminum is temporarily oscillating, with resistance at 20,300 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum in the short term, and the spread with Shanghai aluminum may narrow in the off - season. Alumina has a large supply elasticity after profit recovery, with domestic operating capacity exceeding 90 million tons. The futures are weak due to oversupply, and it is advisable to short on rallies. The Guinea ore price is stable at $75, corresponding to a cost of about 3,000 yuan in Shanxi, and it is not advisable to short the futures due to a large discount [3] Zinc - SMM's research shows that smelter output in June is expected to increase by 40,000 tons month - on - month. Consumption is pre - exported and in the traditional off - season, so demand remains weak. The average price of SMM 0 zinc decreased by 430 yuan/ton to 22,160 yuan/ton, and the spot premium to the near - month contract decreased to 50 yuan/ton. The main Shanghai zinc contract fell 1.27%, with the weighted position increasing by 7,878 lots to 285,000 lots and the settled funds reaching 5.567 billion yuan. The short - covering strength slowed down. Considering the support from the smelting cost, short positions opened at high levels should consider taking partial profits around 21,500 yuan/ton, and the overall view is to short on rallies [4] Lead - The price of lead batteries remains high. Under environmental inspections, some secondary lead smelters reduced production, supporting the slow increase of the lead price. The average price of SMM 1 lead increased by 100 yuan to 16,625 yuan/ton, with a spot discount of 195 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The refined - scrap spread is 25 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises purchase cautiously, and the spot trading is light. The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined significantly, and the market trading was light. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,400 yuan, that of imported nickel is 100 yuan, and that of electrowon nickel is 150 yuan. Due to continuous rainfall in the Philippines, the loading progress of nickel mines was delayed. The price of NPI stopped falling, but domestic NPI smelters are still in a loss. The inventory of nickel iron increased by 2,000 tons to 31,500 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 983,000 tons. Wait for opportunities to short Shanghai nickel [7] Tin - Shanghai tin turned down in the late trading. The spot tin price is 264,800 yuan, with a spot premium of 990 yuan to the delivery - month contract. The MA60 moving average of domestic and international tin prices is the objective boundary of the price trend. Due to supply factors, the tin price rebounded quickly after the decline. When Shanghai tin rebounds close to the previous level above 265,000 yuan, some short positions should be reduced or rolled over to the far - month contract [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded, and the market trading was average. The total market inventory increased by 800 tons to 132,400 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 540 tons to 41,000 tons, the smelter inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 57,000 tons, and the inventory in the intermediate link increased by 500 tons. The downstream restocking and upstream destocking did not continue, but the sentiment of traders in the intermediate link became more positive, and the spot bottom - fishing sentiment continued. The latest price of Australian ore is $607.5, and the decline rate slowed down. The mid - stream production increased by 7% month - on - month. Technically, the decline of lithium carbonate futures slowed down, and the position indicates risk accumulation. The decline rate of Australian ore slowed down, and the short - selling momentum weakened. It is advisable to participate in the rebound with a light position [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures increased with a reduction in positions, closing at 7,415 yuan/ton, and the market trading volume declined. On the supply side, the weekly increase is mainly driven by the resumption of production of leading enterprises in Xinjiang. The production schedules of downstream polysilicon and silicone in June are expected to increase month - on - month, but there may still be a slight inventory build - up in June. The short - term price is driven by technical rebounds and macro - mood fluctuations. It is difficult to determine the end of the short - term market, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of the M20 moving average. The overall trend is still bearish [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures declined with a reduction in positions, and the oscillation center continued to move down. After the PV 531 policy node, the short - term distributed demand declined, and centralized projects are mainly in a wait - and - see state. After component enterprises raised prices, it was difficult to follow up with transactions. The production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in June continued to shrink, while the polysilicon production schedule increased slightly. The inventory pressure of polysilicon is expected to increase slightly, and leading enterprises have the expectation of lower production costs after capacity replacement. Technically and from the perspective of macro - mood transmission, polysilicon futures may oscillate weakly in the short term [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of soft commodities is complex with different trends in each sector. Most sectors suggest a wait - and - see approach due to various influencing factors such as trade negotiations, weather, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly. Spot cotton trading was fair with positive trader purchases and a firm basis. Cotton yarn enterprises sold at market prices, but market confidence was low with decreasing downstream operation and rising inventory. As of end - May, commercial cotton inventory was 345.87 million tons, down 69.39 million tons month - on - month and 31.54 million tons year - on - year. Suggested to wait and see or go long at low prices [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. In Brazil, May 1 - 15 production data was mixed with lower cane crushing and sugar output but higher sugar - making ratio. In the Northern Hemisphere, expected above - average rainfall in Q3 in India and Thailand is beneficial for cane growth. In China, as of end - May, cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 152.1 million tons year - on - year; sales ratio was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster; industrial inventory was 304.83 million tons, down 32.21 million tons year - on - year. US sugar trend is downward, so Zhengzhou sugar's upside is limited. Expected short - term oscillation and suggested to wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices were weak. Spot prices were stable. Demand entered the off - season with lower apple demand due to more seasonal fruits and hot weather. Market focus shifted to new - season production estimates. Cold snaps and winds in the western产区 may affect fruit - setting and quality, but overall low - temperature impact on yield was small, mainly increasing fruit rust risk. Flower quantity was sufficient, so production estimate was bearish. Suggested to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU&WR rose, BR fell slightly. Domestic natural rubber prices were stable to rising, synthetic rubber prices were stable, and upstream butadiene port prices were stable. Global natural rubber supply entered the growth period. Last week, domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate dropped significantly, while upstream butadiene plant operating rate rose slightly. Domestic full - steel tire operating rate fell slightly, semi - steel tire operating rate dropped significantly, and tire inventory decreased. Qingdao natural rubber inventory fell to 60.55 million tons, Chinese butadiene port inventory fell to 2.7 million tons, and Chinese cis - butadiene rubber social inventory fell to 1.35 million tons. Suggested to wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp futures fell slightly. Spot prices were stable. As of June 5, 2025, Chinese pulp port inventory was 215.7 million tons, down 0.4 million tons from the previous period. May imports were 301.6 million tons, and January - May cumulative imports were 1,554.7 million tons, up 2.1% year - on - year. Macro - level Sino - US trade showed positive signals. Domestic port inventory was high, demand was weak, and supply was ample. Pulp valuation was low with strong support near the previous low. Suggested to wait and see for long - entry opportunities on significant pullbacks [7] Logs - Futures prices oscillated. Spot prices were stable. In June, New Zealand log prices stopped falling and stabilized, with a $2 month - on - month increase in 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine CFR price. After the increase in foreign quotes, the spot price bottom rose, supporting futures prices. In the off - season, port daily outbound volume was over 60,000 cubic meters. As of May 30, national port log inventory was 3.41 million cubic meters, down 20,000 cubic meters month - on - month. New Zealand log shipments will remain low due to poor profits, but domestic demand is in the off - season, so price rebound momentum is weak. Suggested to wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (Thread and Hot Rolled Coil)**: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi - empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆★, with a somewhat unclear bias, but the symbol contains a star, indicating a certain upward or downward driving force, but limited operability on the market [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★, with a somewhat unclear bias, but the symbol contains a star, indicating a certain upward or downward driving force, but limited operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for steel products is weak, with the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain still fermenting. The market is in a state of short - term shock, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] - The supply pressure of iron ore is increasing, and there is still a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain in the medium term. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [3] - The prices of coke and coking coal have rebounded slightly. Although the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [4][6] - The price of silicon manganese has rebounded, but the improvement of the fundamentals is limited. It is recommended to try long positions lightly and observe the sustainability of the rebound [7] - The price of silicon ferrosilicon has rebounded, with overall acceptable demand and a slight decline in inventory. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Performance**: The steel futures market showed a weak shock today. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased month - on - month in the off - season, and the inventory reduction slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils decreased, production increased, and inventory began to accumulate [2] - **Demand Situation**: Downstream demand is generally weak. Infrastructure improvement is limited, manufacturing prosperity has slowed down, real - estate sales recovery lacks sustainability, and new construction and construction have continued to decline significantly. Although steel exports remained high in May, the demand expectation is still pessimistic [2] - **Future Trend**: The steel market is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] Iron Ore - **Supply Situation**: Global iron ore shipments continued to rebound and reached a new high this year, and the domestic arrival volume continued to increase. It is expected to remain high in the short term, and port inventory may stop falling and rise [3] - **Demand Situation**: Terminal demand has weakened in the off - season. Although the profitability of steel mills is okay and the motivation for active production reduction is insufficient, there is still a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain in the medium term [3] - **Future Trend**: The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to be mainly volatile [3] Coke - **Market Performance**: The price of coke rebounded slightly [4] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of coke is still at a relatively high level this year, and the overall inventory has increased slightly. Downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [4] - **Future Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US tariff disturbances [4] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The price of coking coal rebounded quickly after a decline [6] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of coking coal mines has declined slightly from a high level, and the overall inventory has decreased slightly. Downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [6] - **Future Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US tariff disturbances [6] Silicon Manganese - **Market Performance**: The price of silicon manganese rebounded driven by coking coal [7] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Due to previous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production has begun to increase. Manganese ore inventory has increased significantly, and it is expected that the quotation of manganese mines will decline [7] - **Future Trend**: It is recommended to try long positions lightly and observe the sustainability of the rebound [7] Silicon Ferrosilicon - **Market Performance**: The price of silicon ferrosilicon rebounded driven by coking coal [8] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of silicon ferrosilicon has continued to decline, and the overall demand is acceptable. The inventory has decreased slightly, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] - **Future Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of the inventory reduction model on the market [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The global oil inventory increased by 2.2% in Q1 and 1.6% since Q2. After the short - term negative impact of OPEC+ production increase in July, the crude oil is supported by risk sentiment repair, demand improvement in peak season and geopolitical risks, but the mid - term demand slowdown and supply increase will limit the short - term rebound. The focus is on whether Sino - US economic and trade consultations can reverse the macro - expectations [2]. - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is low, and its cracking spread is expected to weaken due to supply increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread is expected to be under pressure due to insufficient demand and sufficient supply [3]. - Today's asphalt performance is weak, but the terminal demand is expected to improve. The de - stocking trend continues, and although the cracking spread faces short - term callback pressure, the upward trend is hard to reverse [4]. - Domestic LPG market is under pressure due to loose supply, limited growth in chemical demand and rising inventory. It maintains a low - level oscillation with some support from rising crude oil prices [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Global oil inventory increased by 2.2% in Q1 and 1.6% since Q2, with crude oil inventory up 2.1% and refined oil inventory up 0.8% [2]. - After the short - term negative impact of OPEC+ production increase in July, the crude oil is supported by macro - risk sentiment repair, demand improvement in peak season and geopolitical risks, but the mid - term demand slowdown and supply increase will limit the short - term rebound [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil demand for ship bunkering and deep - processing is low. Although there is some support from power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa, the demand for crude oil power - generation may exceed that of fuel oil this summer. The cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to weaken due to supply increase [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil has insufficient demand for ship bunkering, and with sufficient supply from refineries, its cracking spread is expected to be under pressure [3]. Asphalt - Today's asphalt performance is weak, and the cracking spread continues to decline. The theoretical loss of processing diluted asphalt is serious, and the inventory of diluted asphalt at ports is at a low level [4]. - The production increase of asphalt by refineries with quotas may lack sustainability, and the increase in asphalt production by major refineries is expected to be limited after the maintenance peak [4]. - The terminal demand for asphalt is expected to improve, and the de - stocking trend continues. Although the cracking spread faces short - term callback pressure, the upward trend is hard to reverse [4]. LPG - The domestic LPG market has loose supply due to weak refinery prices, falling terminal sales and increased refinery output. The chemical demand has limited growth space, and the inventory at terminals and refineries is rising, so the market is under pressure [5]. - The LPG market maintains a low - level oscillation with some support from rising crude oil prices [5].