Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not explicitly rated in a comparable way, but implied to follow the crude oil trend [2] - Asphalt: ☆☆★, the specific meaning of this symbol is not clear from the given content [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market maintains a volatile performance, and the improvement of Sino - US relations may help weaken the negative impact of the trade war on the economy. The OPEC+ strategy of seizing market share through rapid production increases makes it difficult for the supply - demand tightness caused by seasonality and geopolitical factors to last [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively weak, and the supply is expected to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under the situation of weak supply and demand [2] - The supply of asphalt lacks the resilience to increase, the demand has a seasonal improvement, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue with a low inventory level, and the upward trend of BU cracking is hard to reverse [3] - The domestic LPG price is weak, but the downward space is limited due to the reduction of supply pressure. It maintains a low - level shock under the summer supply pressure [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The SC07 contract rose 0.52%. The result of the Sino - US presidential phone call was positive, and the improvement of Sino - US relations may help the economy. The OPEC+ rapid production increase strategy makes the supply - demand tightness unsustainable, and attention should be paid to the substantial improvement of Sino - US economic and trade relations [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak, with low ship - bunkering and deep - processing demand. The summer power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa is affected by lower - than - expected temperatures. The supply from Russia to Asia increased by 42% to 2.45 million tons in May, and the OPEC+ production increase is expected to increase the supply of high - sulfur heavy raw materials. The low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under the situation of weak supply and demand [2] Asphalt - The discount of diluted asphalt in June is at a high level of - $6.5 per barrel, and it is estimated to be - $6 per barrel in July. The supply increase is restricted by poor refining and export profits. The demand has a seasonal improvement, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue with a low inventory level, and the upward trend of BU cracking is hard to reverse [3] LPG - The domestic refinery price is weak. The domestic chemical demand has increased recently, and the international price is relatively stable. The supply pressure has been weakened, and the downward space is limited. It maintains a low - level shock under the summer supply pressure [4]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report comprehensively introduces the basic concepts, chemical properties, downstream consumption fields, and production processes of propylene, highlighting its importance in the chemical industry and various influencing factors [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basic Concepts - Propylene (C3H6) is a colorless, slightly sweet, flammable gas, belonging to the olefin series. It has specific physical properties such as a melting point of -185°C, a boiling point of -47.68°C, and a low flash point of -108°C. It's usually liquefied for transportation and storage, and is not suitable for long - distance transportation [1] - Chemically, it can undergo addition, oligomerization, coordination polymerization, and substitution reactions, deriving high - value chemicals [2] 2. Downstream Consumption Field Distribution - About 68% of propylene is used to produce polypropylene, which is widely used in packaging, automotive, medical, and textile industries. Other significant downstream products include propylene oxide (8%), acrylonitrile (6%), acrylic acid (4%), octanol (4%), and n - butanol (3%). Emerging demands like photovoltaic adhesive films and lithium - battery separators are driving the upgrade of the propylene consumption structure [3] 3. Propylene Production Processes - **Steam Cracking**: Using petroleum hydrocarbons as raw materials, it accounts for about 60% of global propylene production. It's a traditional mainstream method, with high stability and large - scale production capacity, but high energy consumption and dependence on crude oil prices [6] - **Catalytic Cracking (FCC)**: Using heavy oil as raw materials, it produces gasoline, diesel, and propylene as a by - product. It accounts for about 25% of global propylene production, with high flexibility but relatively low propylene purity [7] - **Coal - to - Olefins (CTO/MTO)**: It's a non - petroleum route, suitable for regions rich in coal and short of oil. China is the largest producer. However, it faces environmental pressure and requires optimization of catalyst life and by - product treatment [9] - **Propane Dehydrogenation (PDH)**: Using propane as the raw material, it has a high - purity propylene product (over 99.5%). The global PDH capacity has been growing rapidly, and China is a major market. It depends on stable and low - cost propane supply and can recycle by - product hydrogen [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Short - fiber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend, with different products facing various supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are under supply pressure and weak demand, while others may have short - term bullish factors but also face long - term uncertainties. [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The price continued to decline and fluctuate. Coal prices were low, inland plant maintenance restarts increased, and enterprise inventories rose. Coastal olefins increased their load, but high import arrivals led to port inventory accumulation and weakening basis. The market is expected to be weakly volatile, and the impact of ship - age restrictions in Jiangsu Maritime needs attention. [2] Urea - The futures price remained weak. Agricultural demand was in a lull, market sentiment weakened, production enterprises' inventories increased, and spot prices declined. Although the device maintenance volume increased, the load was still high, and short - term support at the integer level should be monitored. [3] Polyolefins - The futures main contracts fluctuated narrowly. For polyethylene, there were many maintenance plans in June, providing some support on the supply side. However, it was the demand off - season, and the support for spot prices was limited. For polypropylene, it entered the consumption off - season, and the market lacked clear signals. The supply pressure increased, and the supply - demand contradiction was expected to expand. [4] Styrene - The futures main contract fluctuated narrowly around the 5 - day moving average. There was an expectation of supply increase, and the strong selling intention of producers suppressed downstream replenishment. The market sentiment was weak. [5] Polyester - PX and PTA prices oscillated and declined. Their开工 rates continued to rise, while the polyester capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, and the terminal weaving load was adjusted down. The market was under pressure. - Ethylene glycol prices declined, with new device production and restart of coal - chemical maintenance increasing, port inventories rising, and demand possibly weakening. - Short - fiber terminal orders weakened, and the price followed raw materials. The processing margin was still low. - Bottle chip orders might enter the end of the peak season, with potential inventory accumulation pressure and possible industry production cuts. [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices rose due to improved sentiment. However, supply pressure increased with less maintenance in June and new production expectations. Exports were expected to weaken, and there was inventory accumulation pressure. With the decline in calcium carbide prices, the cost support collapsed, and the futures price might oscillate at a low level. - Caustic soda futures prices continued to be weak. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali increased, and the start - up was at a high level. Although liquid caustic soda inventory decreased, there was still pressure, and the downstream demand was weak. [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices rose due to improved sentiment and supply reduction rumors in Shahe. Although there was an improvement in restocking sentiment and production - sales ratio, the inventory pressure was high, and the downstream situation was still weak. Attention should be paid to cost changes and supply changes in Shahe. - Soda ash prices rose with improved sentiment. There were few maintenance plans in June, and supply was high. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and there was a trend of inventory accumulation in the photovoltaic industry. In the long term, supply pressure remained, and a high - level short - selling strategy was recommended. [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (Domestic): Not explicitly stated, but short - term influenced by local and international factors, mid - term weather - driven [2] - Soybean Meal: Not explicitly stated, influenced by trade relations and weather, with potential for price increase in 6 - 8 months [3] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: Expected to maintain range - bound trading [4] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: Short - term expected to fluctuate, mid - term expected to shift upwards [5] - Corn: Market to continue oscillating, weak demand may lead to a downward - biased oscillation [6] - Pig: Short - term spot price has room to fall, mid - term policy may stabilize prices [7] - Egg: Spot price has room to fall, near - month futures should be shorted on rallies [8] Core Viewpoints - The call between Chinese and US leaders has brought positive sentiment to the agricultural product market, but there are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade [3] - Weather is a major factor affecting the prices of overseas soybeans and North American oilseed crops in the medium term [2][4][5] - The supply and demand fundamentals of different agricultural products vary, and prices are affected by multiple factors such as trade relations, weather, and production cycles [2][3][4][5][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean prices rebounded slightly with reduced positions. The upcoming procurement auction has a top price of 4,200 yuan/ton. Short - term weather in Northeast China is favorable for crops, and mid - term prices are weather - driven. Imported soybeans are optimistic due to the leaders' call, and US soybeans may be affected by weather from July to August [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The leaders' call boosted market sentiment, causing Dalian soybean meal to increase in position and price. US soybeans continued to rebound, and the drought - affected area decreased. Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and soybean meal inventory is rising. Attention should be paid to weather - driven price increases from June to August [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic oils are weaker than meals, and the oil - meal ratio has declined. Soybean oil is stronger than palm oil. Mid - term, US soybeans are weather - driven, and palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle. Overall, soybean and palm oil are expected to range - bound [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market shows stronger meal and weaker oil. The call between leaders boosted the price of external oilseeds, and the cost increase was passed on to downstream products. The futures price is mainly affected by trade relations in the short term and is expected to oscillate; it is expected to shift upwards in the medium term [5] Corn - Corn futures continued to rise with reduced positions. The spot price in Northeast China is stable, and there is a stable supply at Shandong processing enterprises. New wheat is replacing corn in some areas, and demand is weak. The market will continue to oscillate weakly [6] Pig - The July contract of live pigs hit a new low. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in the future, and short - term spot prices may continue to fall. The policy aims to stabilize prices, and the future supply pressure may be reduced marginally [7] Egg - From the perspective of the production - price - profit cycle, the current egg price is still relatively high, and the spot price has room to fall. Near - month futures should be shorted on rallies, and the far - month has no signs of a reversal [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for different products are provided, with red stars representing a predicted upward trend and green stars representing a predicted downward trend. For example, products like rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, etc., are rated with three stars (★★★), indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity at present [1]. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows mixed trends. For steel products, the demand outlook is pessimistic, but market sentiment has improved due to the China-US presidential call, with short - term fluctuations expected. For iron ore, there is an expected limited rebound and a mainly oscillatory trend. For coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron, price rebounds are observed, but the upside space is restricted by various factors [2][3][4]. Summary by Product Steel - The steel market has strengthened today. Rebar's apparent demand has dropped significantly week - on - week, production has declined, and the inventory reduction pace has slowed. Hot - rolled coil demand has fallen, production has increased, and inventory has started to accumulate. Iron - water production is gradually decreasing but remains at a relatively high level. The improvement in infrastructure is limited, manufacturing prosperity has slowed, and real - estate sales lack sustained recovery. US tariff increases impact steel exports. Although market sentiment has improved, demand expectations are pessimistic, restricting the upside space [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is oscillating strongly today. Supply has reached a yearly high globally, and domestic arrivals have rebounded significantly. The decline in port inventory has narrowed, and the amount of berthed ships has increased. Terminal demand is weak in the off - season, but iron - water production remains high, and steel mills have no strong motivation to cut production actively. The short - term rebound is due to oversold conditions, but the mid - term risk of industrial chain negative feedback exists, so the rebound space is limited, and the trend is mainly oscillatory [3]. Coke - Coke prices have rebounded significantly. Iron - water production has decreased slightly, and the third round of coking price cuts has partially been implemented, but coking daily production remains at a high level this year. Overall coke inventory has increased slightly, and traders are not making purchases. The carbon element supply is still abundant, and with the easing of tariff impacts and other factors, prices have rebounded. However, due to inventory pressure, the upside space should not be overly optimistic [4]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have rebounded significantly. Coking coal mine production has declined slightly from a high level, the number of shut - down mines has increased, and the spot auction market has weakened with continuous price drops. Terminal inventory has continued to decline slightly. Overall, the carbon element supply is abundant, and prices have rebounded under certain conditions. But due to inventory pressure, the upside space is limited [6]. Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices have rebounded mainly driven by coking coal. Due to previous continuous production cuts, inventory levels have decreased, but weekly production has started to rise, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. It is expected that the manganese mine quotation will decrease month - on - month. Iron - water production has declined slightly, and silicon manganese supply has increased slightly. Manganese ore inventory has started to accumulate, and market expectations have changed. It is recommended to take a small - position long position and observe the sustainability of the rebound [7]. Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices have rebounded mainly driven by coking coal. Iron - water production has decreased slightly. Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. Metal magnesium production has increased month - on - month, and secondary demand has remained stable at a high level. Silicon iron supply has continued to decline, market trading volume is average, and on - balance - sheet inventory has decreased slightly. Some silicon iron producers may adopt a trading model to help with inventory reduction, and the sustainability of inventory reduction needs to be observed [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver investment rating: ★☆★, where the white star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight, the gold price fluctuated, and silver rose along with the copper price breaking through resistance. Sino - US leaders agreed to continue implementing the Geneva Consensus and hold a new round of talks soon. The US weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 247,000, hitting an eight - month high. After the generally weak US economic data this week, the focus is on tonight's non - farm payrolls report. Gold should maintain the idea of buying on dips based on the strong support at $3000, and silver has opened up upside space after breaking through [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Information Trade and Tariff News - The US shows flexibility in reducing additional reciprocal tariffs on Japan [2] - US and Indian negotiators may finalize tariff cuts and market access issues to reach a temporary agreement [2] - Trump claims to reach a good trade agreement with Germany [2] Russia - related News - Trump and Putin did not reach any agreement on a face - to - face meeting. Trump said it's difficult to achieve an immediate cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. If the agreement with Russia fails, the US will take tough measures. Trump has not reviewed the Russia sanctions bill, believing it's too harsh [2] European Central Bank Policy - The European Central Bank cut three key interest rates by 25 basis points. Lagarde hinted that the interest - rate cut cycle may end, and the market no longer fully prices in another 25 - basis - point rate cut this year [2]

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Positive trend with good investment opportunities [1] - Fuel oil: Slightly bullish, but limited trading operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with poor short - term operability, recommend waiting and seeing [1] - Asphalt: Neutral, with poor short - term operability, recommend waiting and seeing [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Neutral, with poor short - term operability, recommend waiting and seeing [1] Core Views - The rapid production increase strategy of OPEC+ makes the supply - demand tightness from seasonality and geopolitical fluctuations unsustainable. Keep an eye on short - selling opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical disturbances are fully priced in [2] - The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in shipping and deep - processing remains weak, and the cracking and EFS of high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to weaken jointly. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil under the situation of weak supply and demand [3] - The supply increase of asphalt lacks resilience, the demand has a seasonal improvement, the de - stocking trend is expected to continue, and the upward trend of BU cracking is hard to reverse [4] - The downward space of LPG is limited after the supply pressure weakens, but the supply pressure still exists in summer, and it maintains a low - level shock [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC07 contract dropping 0.83% during the day [2] - Saudi Arabia hopes that OPEC+ will continue to increase production at a rate of 411,000 barrels per day in August and September, and has lowered the official price premium of light crude oil sold to Asia in July [2] - The supply interruption caused by the wildfires in Canada has partially recovered, and the inventories of gasoline and refined oil in the EIA last week increased more than expected, indicating that demand cannot match the increase in refinery supply [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in shipping and deep - processing is still weak. Although the power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa in summer provides some support, the expected power - generation demand for crude oil may exceed that for fuel oil this summer [3] - In May, the arrival volume of Russian fuel oil flowing to Asia increased by 42% to 2.45 million tons, and the production increase of OPEC+ brings an expectation of increased supply of high - sulfur heavy raw materials [3] - The bunker volume of low - sulfur fuel oil in Fujairah dropped significantly last week, the peak season of overseas marine fuel demand is coming to an end, and the bonded inventory at domestic ports has decreased significantly under low supply [3] Asphalt - The discount quotation of diluted asphalt in June remains at a high level of -$6.5 per barrel, and the estimated discount quotation for July is -$6 per barrel [4] - The production of local refineries depends on crude oil quotas, and the start - up rate of major refineries is still restricted by poor comprehensive refining profit and export profit [4] - The demand has a seasonal improvement, but the real driving force still needs to be awaited [4] LPG - Domestic refineries have increased external sales and prices have generally declined. Although the supply in the Middle East is still abundant, the recent recovery of domestic chemical demand has brought about procurement demand [5] - The international market price is relatively stable. The monthly arrival volume and domestic production of LPG at the beginning of the month have both decreased, and the downward space is limited after the supply pressure weakens [5] - The supply pressure still exists in summer, and currently there is insufficient motivation for the improvement of chemical gross profit, maintaining a low - level shock [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Two stars, suggesting a clear bullish/bearish trend and the market situation is evolving) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★★☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (White star, meaning the short - term bullish/bearish trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The chemical market shows a mixed trend, with some products expected to be weak, some in a balanced state, and some showing potential investment opportunities. Each product's performance is influenced by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and seasonal factors [2][3][4] Summary by Product Categories Methanol - Intraday price oscillated with reduced positions. Coastal olefins increased load, raising methanol external procurement demand. Ports gradually accumulated inventory, and the basis remained strong. Inland device maintenance restarts increased, leading to higher load and weaker prices. Coal prices stopped falling, alleviating cost pressure. With the expectation of increased supply, the methanol market is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of Jiangsu Maritime's ship - age restrictions [2] Urea - Futures prices dropped sharply with increased positions, breaking through the low in late April. Agricultural demand is in the wheat - harvest gap. With the end of summer high - nitrogen fertilizer production and clear export policies, market trading sentiment weakened, and producers' inventories continued to accumulate. Although exports are gradually liberalized, legal inspections are still restricted, and port inventories are basically the same as last week. A new Indian tender has little impact on the market. Device maintenance increased slightly, and the load decreased slightly but remained high. Short - term attention should be paid to the support at the integer level [3] Polyolefins - Futures main contracts fluctuated narrowly. For polyethylene, there are still many maintenance plans in June, providing some support on the supply side. However, it is the off - season for demand, and end - users mainly replenish inventory at low prices, providing limited support for spot prices. For polypropylene, downstream demand is in the off - season, and the willingness of downstream buyers to take delivery is average. The market lacks clear signals, and market sentiment is cautious. The restart of previously maintained upstream devices and inventory accumulation during holidays have increased supply pressure, and the supply - demand contradiction is expected to intensify with the upcoming launch of new devices [4] Styrene - The main futures contract fluctuated narrowly, and the overall center of gravity moved down along the 5 - day moving average. There is an expectation of increased supply, and producers' intention to sell is strong, suppressing downstream replenishment transactions. Producers are gradually reducing prices, and downstream users are using existing raw materials and purchasing on an as - needed basis, with weak market sentiment [6] Polyester - PX and PTA futures prices declined first and then oscillated back, remaining weak overall. PX and PTA operating rates continued to increase, while polyester capacity utilization decreased slightly, and terminal weaving load decreased. The industry chain shows a situation of increased upstream production and decreased downstream load, and PX and PTA are expected to be under continuous pressure. Attention should be paid to terminal orders and potential production cuts. Ethylene glycol prices rose rapidly due to the suspension of ethane shipments from the US but then oscillated back, and the monthly spread remained weak. With the commissioning of new plants and the restart of coal - chemical plants, port arrivals increased from a low level, and ports accumulated inventory. Coupled with possible weakening demand, market sentiment turned weak. Short - fiber prices were weakly volatile, with low processing margins. Terminal orders weakened, and supply - demand drivers were downward, mainly following raw material price fluctuations. Bottle - chip production is mainly for peak - season orders, and inventory is stable. As raw material prices weakened, the processing margin on the futures market rebounded from a low level, while the spot processing margin continued to weaken [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC continued its weak pattern. With less maintenance in June and the expected commissioning of a 500,000 - ton new plant, supply pressure increased. With the arrival of the Indian rainy season, exports are expected to weaken, and domestic demand is weak, so the PVC industry faces inventory accumulation pressure. The decline in calcium carbide prices has undermined cost support. In a weak supply - demand situation, futures prices may oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda is operating weakly. The increase in liquid chlorine prices has improved the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.5%. Liquid caustic soda inventory has decreased but still faces pressure. The enthusiasm of non - aluminum downstream users and traders to take delivery is average. Downstream rigid demand has not improved significantly. With high - profit margins, supply is operating at a high level, and futures prices are under pressure at high levels [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass continued the pattern of inventory accumulation and price reduction, and futures prices were weak. Affected by the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the enthusiasm of traders to purchase decreased, and the industry continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, inventory is concentrated in upstream and mid - stream, with high pressure. With the upcoming rainy season, the industry faces shipment pressure. Coal production lines still have profits, with two new production lines and three ignition lines recently, slightly increasing capacity. Processing orders have not improved significantly month - on - month and are still weak year - on - year, and downstream payment collection is poor. With high inventory pressure, the driving force is still weak. At a low valuation, attention should be paid to cost - side changes, and operations should be cautious. Soda ash supply has rebounded to 700,000 tons, with high inventory pressure, and futures prices continued the weak pattern. There are few maintenance plans in June. After upstream price concessions, the industry still has profits, and supply will remain at a high level. Downstream users mainly make rigid purchases and have a weak willingness to replenish inventory. There is a trend of inventory accumulation in the photovoltaic industry, and the subsequent ignition speed will slow down or even cold - repair may occur. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side fluctuations, and in the long term, supply pressure remains, so a high - level short - selling strategy is recommended [9]

不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 | Millio | 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月05日 | | 黄金 | な☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | な☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜黄金偏强震荡,白银波动有限。美国5月ADP就业人数新增3.7万人大幅低于预期和前值,非制造业PMI降 至49.9为2024年6月以来的最低,关税背景下经济承压,聚焦周五非农指引。美联储方面近期表态谨慎,特 朗普再次催促降息。贵金属处于震荡局面，金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调买入思路。 ★关税-①传美加协议可能在下周达成，加总理：若谈判未能取得成功，准备对美国采取报复措施；②欧盟 贸易官员：与美谈判正在按正确的方向稳步推进;③英国首相:非常有信心能在非常短的时间内降低美国的 关税；④美商务部长：将在月底之前完成分析 ...