Economic Indicators - In February 2024, the balance of pledged supplementary loans (PSL) from major banks remained stable at CNY 3.40 trillion[7] - The official manufacturing PMI for February was 49.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from January, remaining below the growth line for five consecutive months[7] - The Caixin manufacturing PMI for February was 50.9%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from January, indicating expansion for four consecutive months[7] Real Estate Market - As of February 28, 2024, 276 cities across 31 provinces have established urban financing coordination mechanisms, proposing approximately 6,000 real estate projects with over CNY 200 billion in loans approved[15] - The total land transaction area in 100 major cities was 1,196.73 million square meters, maintaining a regular level[43] Commodity Prices - The wholesale price of pork slightly decreased to CNY 20.14 per kilogram, while vegetable prices fell to CNY 5.49 per kilogram, and fruit prices remained stable at CNY 7.26 per kilogram[19] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose to 2,203 points, indicating an upward trend in shipping rates[48] Stock Market Performance - Major A-share indices saw increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.74% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 4.03%[53] - The yield on 2-year government bonds increased by 0.85%, while the yield on 30-year bonds decreased by 3.46%[71] Foreign Trade - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) rose to 1,352.40 points, reflecting an increase in shipping costs[66]

国信期货研究 Page 1 节前降准节后降息均超预期 物价和货币供应改善 1 月物价同比水平仍然不佳，由于冰冻雨雪天气以及春节消费，物价环 比均有所好转。1 月社融存量同比增速超过 M2 同比增速 0.8 个百分点，且 M1 增速较好；1 月社融增量为 6.50 万亿元，为单月新增历史最高值；总体反映 出季节性因素的利好，叠加人行货币政策操作的推动作用，货币供给结构性 问题得到改善。1 月官方制造业 PMI 较去年 12 月略有回升，但处于荣枯线下 方，仍待改善；生产指数保持扩张且中型企业表现优异，但是购进价格和出 厂价格双双回落、新出口订单已连续 10 个月处于荣枯线下方。"新一轮大规 模设备更新和消费品以旧换新"将启动，在当前"有效需求不足"的大背景 下，可带动部分企业投资和居民消费。 财政政策方面。根据 Wind，地方政府新增专项债发行情况，2023 年 1 月和 2 月分别发行 4911.84 亿元和 3357.53 亿元，2024 年 1 月发行 567.81 亿元；截至 2024 年 2 月 25 日数据显示，2 月计划发行规模为 3465.88 亿元。 本月地方政府新增专项债发行有所加速，有助于 ...