1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The easing of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US leads to expectations of rush exports, but the approaching traditional off - season and the increase in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory last week may cause the Shanghai copper price to remain weakly cautious. It is recommended that investors lightly test short positions on the main contract at high prices, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Content 3.1 Copper Market Data - On May 22, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 77,920, down 180 from the previous day; the trading volume was 61,455 lots, down 9,674; the open interest was 153,061 lots, down 10,259; the inventory was 31,754 tons, down 9,464; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,082, down 375 [2]. - The Shanghai copper basis was 165, down 195; the spot premium of Guangzhou electrolytic copper was 205, up 20; the spot discount of North China electrolytic copper was - 70, down 70; the spot premium of East China electrolytic copper was 30, down 125 [2]. - The price difference between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 320, up 30; the price difference between the first continuous and the second continuous contract was 250, down 10; the price difference between the second continuous and the third continuous contract was 220, up 40 [2]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures was 9,519.5, up 32.5; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 01 (data seems abnormal), down 166,525; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 15.88, up 1.87; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 95.2, down 9.28; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.1853, down 0.05 [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 4.678, unchanged; the total inventory was 174,607 tons, up 2,985 [2]. 3.2 Important Information - According to SMI, Mercuria Energy Trading Group expects a shortage of 300,000 tons of copper concentrate supply and a surplus of 800,000 tons of refined copper supply this year, which may drive up copper prices [2]. - According to the latest report of the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), in March 2025, the global refined copper production was 2513,500 tons, the consumption was 2493,000 tons, with a surplus of 20,600 tons. From January to March 2025, the global refined copper production was 7,283,200 tons, the consumption was 7,012,500 tons, with a surplus of 270,800 tons. In March 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 153,920 tons. From January to March 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 452,170 tons [2]. - In April 2025, China's copper strip exports were 10,741 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.84%. From January to April 2025, China's cumulative copper strip exports were 39,166 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.86% [2]. - The US Congress and the White House reached an agreement on the budget resolution, including a $5.8 trillion investment in aviation over the next decade, a $5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, and a $4 billion reduction in spending. The US April consumer inflation CPI annual rate was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, which may lead the Fed to cut interest rates in September or December [2]. 3.3 Supply - side Information - The sulfide copper ore expansion project of Gedi.trepe polymetallic mine under ACC Metals in Shanghai is expected to be put into production in the first quarter of 2026, with an initial annual output of 25,000 tons. Freeport - McMoRan Indonesia was permitted to export 2.27 million tons of copper concentrate within 6 months from March 1 [3]. - Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines with a refining capacity of 200,000 tons has stopped production. Glencore's Alto Norte smelter in Chile with a 350,000 - ton copper refining capacity has suspended production until May due to a problem with the converter furnace. The Kaaou Yalaua smelter in the Democratic Republic of the Congo may be put into production in June 2025, with an annual output of 500,000 tons [3]. - Yimen Copper Industry's new anode copper capacity increased from 100,000 tons to 150,000 tons and was successfully put into production on April 12. Jiangxi Copper Baoyuan's second - phase project with an annual output of 150,000 tons of cathode copper started construction in Guixi. Jinchuan Group's second - phase 800,000 - ton intelligent electrolytic copper project produced the first batch of high - purity cathodes in August [3]. - Freeport Indonesia's Manyar copper smelter with a 480,000 - ton capacity stopped production for 6 - month maintenance in mid - October 2024 due to a fire in the natural gas purification device. India's alaxti copper smelter may start production in mid - 2025. Japan's Toho Metal Mining plans to carry out a 6 - week maintenance on its Tovy Saelter & Refinery copper smelter in late October [3]. 3.4 Demand - side Information - High copper prices have affected new orders for copper rods. The operating rates of China's refined copper rods and recycled copper rods increased last week. The raw material inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises remained flat or decreased [3]. - The operating rate of China's copper wire and cable production decreased. The order volume and operating rate of copper liquid packaging increased. The operating rate of China's brass rods increased [3]. - Due to the easing of reciprocal tariffs and the approaching traditional off - season, the operating rates, production, imports, and exports of domestic steel enterprises in June may decline. Specifically, the operating rates of copper wire and cable, electrolytic copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper liquid packaging, copper strips, copper foils, steel pipes, and brass rods may decline [3]. 3.5 Inventory Information - The inventory of copper concentrate in Chinese ports may increase or decrease. The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area decreased last week, the social inventory increased, the inventory in the futures exchange decreased, and the inventory in COMEX increased [3].

需求端，中国不同生产工艺的磷酸铁月度平均生产成本为1.1-1.3.万元吨，中国磷酸铁5月生产(库存)量或环化增加(增加)；中国不同生产工艺的磷酸铁锂月度平均生产成本为3.2-1.1万元吨，中国 磷酸铁锂厂库存量较上周咸少，白银创代瑞鑫磷酸铝铁塑项目一期迈吨产能绕于4月试生产，云南鸿泰博:万吨磷碳铁座产能将于5月建成出产，天程锂电缆酸铁锂项目二期5万吨产输计划2月 开工并12月底建成投产，中国磷酸铁塑(磷酸硫铝设)5月生产量或环比增加(增加)；溴湿法冶炼中间品MBP中格系数升高引导擦盐厂生产成本趋升并亏损而或减产，使中国面酸腺3月生产(进口)量 0近日，广东浩海锂电高新材料有限公司年产6000吨电池级碳酸塑生产线项目落地广东。据了解，该项目总投资21.500万元，环保股资190万元，占总投资额的1.88%。项目占地面积36.99.7平方 米，「区建筑面积2133.29平方米，建设1条年中600电池级碳酸锂生产线项目以锂降石熟料为原料，车产600吨电池级碳酸锂卸产73500吨的长石器）年，预计于2025年7月投产 0老/薛社21日假道称，美国商务部201日仍步就定中国关键电池组件存在补贴，认为中国话性阳极材料生产 ...

| 贵金属日评20250523: 特朗普新减税法案闯过众议院,美国5月非官方PMI均超预期 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-22 | 2025-05-21 | 2025-05-16 | 收盘价 | 778. 78 | 780. 10 | 751.80 | 1.32 | 28. 30 | | | | | | | | 成交重 | 307544. 00 | 396470.00 | 481303.00 | -88, 926. 00 | -173,759.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 224053.00 | 12, 572. 00 | 222494.00 | 211481.00 | 1,559.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 17247.00 | 17247.00 | 17238.00 | 9.00 | 0. 00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250523:回落空间有限 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | | 单位 | 5月22日 | 5月21日 | 变化值 (绝对值) | 英化值 (相对值) | | UR01 山东 期现价格 山西 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1766.00 1880.00 1750.00 | 1773.00 1880.00 1760.00 | -7.00 0.00 -10.00 | -0.39% 0.00% -0.57% | | UR05 | | | 元/吨 | 1772.00 | 1781.00 | -9.00 | -0.51% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1849.00 | 1855.00 | -6.00 | -0.32% | | 河南 | 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1890.00 | 1890.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 | 1880.00 | 1880.00 | 0.00 | 0. ...

| | | | 甲醇日评20250523: 反弹沽空初步印证 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/5/22 | 2025/5/21 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2311.00 | 2343.00 | -32.00 | -1.37% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2259.00 | 2288.00 | -29.00 | -1.27% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2241.00 | 2270.00 | -29.00 | -1.28% | | | | 太仓 | 元/呼 | 2300.00 | 2315.00 | -15.00 | -0.65% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2270.00 | 2290.00 | -20.00 | -0.87% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2325.00 | 2360.00 | -35 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material shortage has led to production cuts at lead smelters, providing strong support for the downside of lead prices. The lead price is expected to trade in a wide range in the short term, with subsequent focus on macro uncertainties [1]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, and it is expected to trade in a wide range in the short term. In the medium to long term, the TC has room to rise, and the center of the zinc price may shift downwards. A strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended, with subsequent focus on macro - sentiment disturbances [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lead Market - **Price and Market Indicators**: On May 23, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,625 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day. The closing price of the futures main contract was 16,685 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The trading volume of the futures active contract increased by 106.00% to 42,980 lots, and the open interest increased by 170.23% to 45,301 lots. The LME inventory was 295,825 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 39,327 tons, down 4.30% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The operation of primary lead smelters was stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries rose continuously, and recyclers had limited supplies. Some smelters cut or stopped production due to cost inversion, and the operating rate declined significantly. The demand was in the off - season, with weak downstream procurement [1]. - **Inventory**: As of May 22, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations was 5.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons from May 15 and 0.88 million tons from May 19 [1]. 3.2 Zinc Market - **Price and Market Indicators**: On May 23, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,580 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The closing price of the futures main contract was 22,455 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. The trading volume of the futures active contract decreased by 16.49% to 82,262 lots, and the open interest decreased by 11.19% to 59,658 lots. The LME inventory was 156,225 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 1,400 tons [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters had sufficient raw material stocks, and the zinc concentrate processing fee continued to rise. The production of smelters increased, but the terminal demand had not improved, and downstream enterprises were bearish on the future zinc price and had weak procurement enthusiasm. Different downstream sectors had different performances [1]. - **Inventory**: As of May 22, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven locations was 8.04 million tons, a decrease of 0.59 million tons from May 15 and 0.34 million tons from May 19 [1]. 3.3 Other Information - The Port Pirie multi - metal smelter in Australia, owned by Nyrstar, has the capacity to produce up to 5,000 tons of antimony metal or antimony trioxide per year but needs additional processing steps and government funding. The Australian smelting industry is facing challenges from high domestic electricity costs and over - capacity in China [1]. - Canadian mining company Foran Mining plans to raise 350 million Canadian dollars through non - brokered private placement for the construction and exploration of the McIlvenna Bay copper - zinc project. The project is expected to start commercial production in mid - 2026 [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The silicon market has strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. The industrial silicon price is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, with an operating range of 7,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rebounds. For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, the transaction price is moving down, and it is advisable to short on the 07 contract. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Price Data - Industrial silicon: The average price of oxygen - free 553 (East China) dropped 1.16% to 8,500 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) dropped 1.04% to 9,500 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closed at 7,880 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. [1] - Polysilicon: N - type dense material remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closed at 36,080 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. [1] - Other products: Most silicon wafer, battery piece, and component prices remained unchanged, while the price of single - crystal PERC battery piece M10 - 182mm dropped 1.04% to 0.29 yuan/watt. [1] 2. Industry News - Shaanxi Wuke Jinsilicon New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. plans to invest 200 million yuan to produce 1,000 tons of silicon - carbon anode materials annually. [1] - In May 2025, Shengquan Group completed a 10,000 - ton hard - carbon anode production line and plans to invest 2.48 billion yuan to expand production. [1] 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - Industrial silicon supply: In April, the overall output dropped to about 300,000 tons. In May, it is expected to increase slightly due to复产 in the southwest and new capacity ramping up, but the increase is limited. [1] - Industrial silicon demand: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, and restart may be delayed; organic silicon enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak, and the开工 rate is expected to drop below 55% in May; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises buy on demand. [1] - Polysilicon supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain production cuts, and some new capacity may be put into production, with output expected to stay within 100,000 tons. [1] - Polysilicon demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, with inventory rising and prices of silicon wafers, battery pieces, and components falling. [1] 4. Investment Strategies - Industrial silicon: It is recommended to short on rebounds, with a short - term operating range of 7,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Follow silicon enterprises' production dynamics. [1] - Polysilicon: Consider shorting on the 07 contract and follow the evolution of "high positions and low warehouse receipts". [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trump's second - term tax cut expansion may lead to concerns about the unsustainability of US public debt. Combined with continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide and geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly establish long positions on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Policy and Interest Rates - The US Senate and House of Representatives passed a temporary spending bill until September 30. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be exhausted between August and October, which could slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. Trump's administration plans to cut the 2026 fiscal budget by $163 billion. With better - than - expected economic data and lower - than - expected inflation in April, the Fed may cut interest rates in September or December [3]. - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2.25%. Given the economic data and the economist's prediction of the neutral interest rate, the ECB may cut interest rates 2 - 3 more times before the end of 2025 [3]. - The Bank of England cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in May and will continue to reduce its government bond holdings by £100 billion from October 2024 to September 2025. Due to inflation data, the market expects the BoE to cut interest rates only once more before the end of 2025 [3]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, bringing the benchmark rate to 0.5%. With inflation data and the stance of some officials, the market still expects the BoJ to raise interest rates [4]. US Debt and Liquidity - The US outstanding public debt is $36.2 trillion, hitting the $36.1 trillion debt ceiling. Trump's second - term tax cut bill may increase the fiscal deficit by at least $3.3 trillion in the next decade, raising concerns about debt sustainability [9]. - The Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale is about $162.8 billion. From a weekly perspective, the Fed's bank reserve balance increased, the overnight reverse repurchase scale decreased, and the Treasury's general account cash balance decreased. Before the debt - ceiling issue is resolved, the Treasury's cash account balance may decline, and the Fed may slow down its balance - sheet reduction [10][12]. Inflation and Yields - US consumers' one - and five - year inflation expectations have significantly increased from January to May. Trump's tariff policies and the expansionary tax cut bill have raised medium - and long - term inflation expectations [16][18]. - Trump's tax cut bill, large - scale bond maturities, and high federal funds target rates have led to a significant increase in US medium - and long - term Treasury yields [22]. - The expectation of out - of - control Treasury supply has pushed up medium - and long - term Treasury yields, while the declining consumer - end inflation has led to an increase in medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury yields [25]. - The difference between long - and medium - term Treasury yields in the US is positive and expanding, mainly due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation suppressing short - and medium - term yields and concerns about fiscal deficits pushing up long - term yields [29]. Financial Market Indicators - The US OFR financial stress index decreased compared to last week, with declines in credit, stock valuation, safe - asset, and volatility indicators [32][33]. - The weekly rate of US commercial bank loans and leases decreased, with only credit - card loans showing a week - on - week increase [37]. - The US Redbook commercial retail sales' weekly annual rate decreased. As of May 17, the year - on - year growth rate was 5.4%, indicating a still - prosperous consumer industry but more price - sensitive consumers [40]. - The US MBA mortgage application activity index decreased due to the increase in 15 - and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates. The number of new and existing home sales in March decreased [43]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US was 229,000, in line with expectations but higher than the previous value. The number of continued jobless claims was 1.881 million, lower than expected but higher than the previous value, indicating a still - prosperous labor - market demand [47]. International Comparison - The difference in medium - and long - term Treasury yields between the US and Germany has increased, mainly due to the ECB's interest - rate cut expectation suppressing German yields and the increase in US Treasury supply and delayed Fed interest - rate cut expectation pushing up US yields [51]. - The euro and the pound have strengthened against the US dollar, driven by concerns about US debt and reduced expectations of the BoE's interest - rate cuts [53]. Precious Metal Market - The volatility of the US gold ETF index has increased, and the ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures decreased, with a reduction in SPDR gold ETF holdings [54][59]. - The total gold inventory in COMEX and SHFE increased compared to last week [63][64]. - The premium of domestic gold futures prices is within a reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for gold cross - market arbitrage opportunities [68]. - The gold basis in London and COMEX is negative and within a reasonable range, and the basis between the Shanghai Gold Exchange and SHFE is negative and at a relatively low level. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term, light - position, low - level long - entry opportunities for the SHFE gold basis [72]. - The spreads between near - and far - month gold contracts in COMEX and SHFE are negative and within a reasonable range. It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE gold monthly - spread arbitrage opportunities [76]. - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures increased, and the iShare silver ETF holdings increased [79]. - The total silver inventory in COMEX, SHFE, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased compared to last week [83]. - The premium of domestic silver futures and spot prices is within a reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for silver cross - market arbitrage opportunities [87]. - The silver basis in COMEX is negative and within a reasonable range, and the Shanghai silver basis is negative and at a relatively low level. It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE silver basis arbitrage opportunities [91]. - The spreads between near - and far - month silver contracts in COMEX and Shanghai are negative and within a reasonable range. It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE silver near - and far - month contract spread arbitrage opportunities [96]. - The "gold - to - silver ratio" in London LME and US COMEX (SHFE) is much higher than the 90th percentile of the past five years. Given central - bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, it is recommended to pay attention to long - entry opportunities for the "gold - to - silver ratio" on dips [99]. - The "gold - to - oil ratio" and "gold - to - copper ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) are much higher than the 90th percentile of the past five years. Due to OPEC's oil - production increase expectation and the approaching traditional consumption off - season, it is recommended to pay attention to long - entry opportunities for these ratios on dips [102].

| | | | 碳 锌 8 详20250522:国内碳酸锂5月供给预期偏松,国内碳酸锂社会库存量环比增加 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-05-21 | 2025-05-20 | 2025-05-15 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 61180.00 | 60960.00 | 64200.00 | 220.00 | | | | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 61100.00 | 60860.00 | 64140.00 | 240.00 | | | | 连二合约 | 收盘价 | 62360.00 | 62100.00 | 64120.00 | 260.00 | | | | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 62360.00 | 62100.00 | 65220.00 | 260.00 | | | | | 收盘价 | 61100.00 | 60860.00 | 64120.00 | 240.00 | | | 砖酸但期货 | 活跃合约 | 成交堂(手) | 27 ...

| m | 贵金属日评20250522:特朗普减税法案延长并扩大规模,英国4月消费通胀超预期和前值 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-05-21 | 2025-05-15 | 2025-05-20 | 收盘价 | 778.78 | 754. 38 | 739. 82 | 24. 40 | 38. 96 | | | | | 成交重 | 396470.00 | 744074.00 | 127,525.00 | -347, 604. 00 | 268945.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 211353.00 | 11, 141. 00 | 11, 306. 00 | 222494.00 | 211188.00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 17247.00 | 17238.00 | 17238.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 上海黄金 ...