◎印度韦丹塔与中国宏桥在铅业成本及利润上的比较需要结含多方面因素综合判断。目前并无确凿证据表明其单吨利润能稳定超越宏衍1700元。 韦丹塔2700两贯… 以示透露，公 同铝产品吨毛利将从当前5865元跃升至2020财年6800元，铝业有望成为最盈利的板块。通过提升目有铝土矿北例及产能优化，生产成本将降低10%，奥里萨邦�00万吨氧化铝项目将 于年底投产。受益于印度12%的铝需求增速及LIM高价，第四季竞净利润同比激增118%至42.3亿元，BBITD6利润率稳居:38%。分析师指出，其在非洲的资源布局形成对中国铝企的成 体优势，屯毛利已达6069元，领跑浓行业 。 印度拥有丰富的铝土矿资源和低廉的劳动力成本，韦丹塔自备煤炭、铝土矿和氧化铝产能后，生产成本有望进一步下降。 韦丹塔2028 | 4/02) [Children] Morility Piting Partil Assembly (1) Me) 11/8 = 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 | | | --- | --- | | 年7~9月电船铝生产成本为181-美元/吨（约合12700元/吨），目铝产量技绕 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Although the supply side of PX has tightened significantly, the supply recovery of some PX plants is earlier than expected, and the marginal supply increase has led to a decline in the overall destocking volume of PX. However, the spot market is still short of goods, so in the short term, the PX price and the bottom of PXN will still be supported. In the medium - term supply - demand pattern, PX will still be in the destocking rhythm in the next few months [2]. - The PTA market is rising. Although downstream polyester factories are reducing production, it cannot change the destocking state of PTA. The spot basis of PTA is strong, supporting the spot market. In the short term, the PTA spot price mainly follows the cost side. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of production - reduction statements of large polyester manufacturers [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a narrow - range shock in raw materials and futures. The supply - side quotations vary, and the downstream terminal replenishment intention is limited. The market trading is somewhat cold. Recently, the industry's start - up has declined slightly, and the supply in some areas is tight [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run weakly (PX view score: - 1, PTA view score: - 1, PR view score: - 1) [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream** - The futures settlement price of WTI crude oil on May 23, 2025, was $61.53 per barrel, up 0.54% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil on May 26, 2025, was $64.74 per barrel, down 0.06% from the previous value [1]. - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) on May 26, 2025, was $566.13 per ton, up 1.03% from the previous value; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) on May 23, 2025, was $707.50 per ton, up 0.43% from the previous value [1]. - **PTA Price** - On May 26, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,724 yuan per ton, up 0.17% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,748 yuan per ton, up 0.47% from the previous value [1]. - The spot price of PTA in the domestic market on May 26, 2025, was 4,875 yuan per ton, up 0.27% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,913 yuan per ton, up 0.68% from the previous value [1]. - **PX Price** - On May 26, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,674 yuan per ton, up 0.33% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,702 yuan per ton, up 0.48% from the previous value [1]. - The spot price of p - xylene in the domestic market on May 26, 2025, was 6,615 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value; the spot price (middle price) of p - xylene (CFR China Taiwan) was $835 per ton, up 0.97% from the previous value [1]. - **PR Price** - On May 26, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 6,006 yuan per ton, up 0.30% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,024 yuan per ton, up 0.40% from the previous value [1]. - The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market on May 26, 2025, was 6,030 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value; in the South China market, it was 6,100 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - **Downstream Product Price** - The CCFEI price index of polyester fiber DTY on May 26, 2025, was 8,900 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester fiber POY was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [2]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester fiber FDY68D on May 26, 2025, was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester fiber FDY150D was 7,200 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [2]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on May 26, 2025, was 6,550 yuan per ton, down 0.38% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,940 yuan per ton, up 0.34% from the previous value [2]. Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the Northwest is planned to restart between May 15th and 20th [2]. Supply - Demand and Market Conditions - **PX** - The start - up rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain on May 26, 2025, was 79.18%, up 1.89 percentage points from the previous value [1]. - The marginal supply of PX has increased, but the spot is still short. In the short term, the price has support, and it will still be in the destocking rhythm in the medium term [2]. - **PTA** - The PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories on May 26, 2025, was 79.28%, up 1.03 percentage points from the previous value [1]. - PTA is in the destocking state, and the spot basis is strong. In the short term, the price mainly follows the cost side, and attention should be paid to the production - reduction of polyester manufacturers [2]. - **Polyester** - The PTA industry chain load rate of polyester factories on May 26, 2025, was 90.75%, down 0.36 percentage points from the previous value; the load rate of bottle - chip factories was 84.19%, down 0.94 percentage points from the previous value [1]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a cold trading atmosphere, with a slight decline in start - up and tight supply in some areas [2]. - The sales rate of polyester filament on May 26, 2025, was 36%, up 2 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 45%, down 15 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester chips was 65%, up 26 percentage points from the previous value [1]. Trading Strategies - PTA is running in a range recently. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,724 yuan per ton (- 0.04%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.39 million lots [2]. - The PX2509 contract closed at 6,674 yuan per ton (0.06%), with an intraday trading volume of 36,970 lots. It is expected that PX will run weakly [2]. - The PR2507 contract closed at 6,006 yuan per ton (0.10%), with an intraday trading volume of 62,900 lots. It is expected that PR will run weakly [2].

| | | | | | | | | | M E G | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 0 2 | 5 / 5 / 2 7 | | | | 种 品 | | | 新 更 日 | 期 | 单 位 | 值 现 | 前 值 | 幅 涨 跌 ( ) | | | | 现 | 货 价 | 中 间 价 | 石 脑 油 | C F R 日 本 | 2 | 0 2 5 / 5 / | 2 6 | 美 元 / 吨 | 5 6 6. 1 3 | 5 6 0. 3 8 | 1. 0 3 % | | | | | | ( ) | : : | | | | | | | | | | | | 化 | 纤 价 | 格 指 数 : | 乙 烯 东 北 : | 亚 | 2 | 0 2 5 / 5 / | 2 6 | 美 元 / 吨 | 7 8 1. 0 0 | 7 8 1. 0 0 | 0. 0 0 % | | 上 | 游 成 本 | 出 | 均 厂 | 价 氧 : 环 | 乙 烷 华 东 ...

| 甲醇日评20250526: 向上动力不足 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | | | 单位 | 2025/5/23 | 2025/5/22 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (絕对值) | (相对值) | | MA01 | | | 元/吨 | 2291.00 | 2311.00 | -20.00 | -0.87% | | 元/吨 | | MA05 甲醇期货价格 | | 2238.00 | 2259.00 | -21.00 | -0.93% | | MA09 | | (收盘价) | 元/吨 | 2222.00 | 2241.00 | -19.00 | -0.85% | | 2287.50 | | 太仓 | 元/呼 | | 2300.00 | -12.50 | -0.54% | | 元/吨 | | 山东 | | 2260.00 | 2270.00 | -10.00 | -0.44% | | 元/吨 | 期现价格 | 广东 | | 2315.00 | 2325.00 | -10.0 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250526:回落空间有限 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | | 单位 | 5月23日 | 5月22日 | 变化值 | 英化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 山东 期现价格 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1753.00 1880.00 | 1766.00 1880.00 | -13.00 0.00 | -0.74% 0.00% | | UR05 | | | 元/吨 | 1762.00 | 1772.00 | -10.00 | -0.56% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1827.00 | 1849.00 | -22.00 | -1.19% | | 山西 | | | 元/吨 | 1730.00 | 1750.00 | -20.00 | -1.14% | | 河南 | 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1880.00 | 1890.00 | -10.00 | -0.53% | | 河北 | (小顆 ...

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有色金属周报(锌) 多空僵持，沪锌区间整理 2025年5月26日 宏源期货研究所 010-8229 5006 祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060） 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：中美贸易关系缓解，关税影响暂告一段落。 | | | |  | 原料端：维持趋松预期，目前国内炼厂原料库存27天左右， | | | | | 海外矿山虽有扰动，但影响较小。4月进口锌精矿大量到 | | | | | 港，进口矿达49万吨，部分OZ矿已运至国内，Kipushi矿 | | | | | 试单销售，Gamsberg、Antamina矿亦有招标，紫金矿业在 | | | | | 俄控股的Kyzyl-Tashtyg铅锌矿将取消原定于6月暂停运营 | 随着关税风波暂告一段落，锌价 | | | | 的计划，公司将维持矿山正常运转，矿端持续宽松。 | 走势回归基本面逻辑，当前锌市 | | |  | 成本利润：近期随着锌价重心下移，矿端对TC继续上调 | 供强需弱，库存处于相对低位， | | | | 意愿不高，预计6月TC调涨空间相对有 ...

风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/26 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/5/23 2025/5/23 | 美元/桶 美元/桶 | 61.53 64.78 | 61.20 64.44 | 0.54% 0.53% | | 上 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/23 | 美元/吨 | 560.38 | 563.38 | -0.53% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/5/23 | | 美元/吨 | 707.50 | 704.50 | 0.43% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/23 | 美元/吨 | 826.00 | 822.67 | 0.40% | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to unresolved raw material shortages, some secondary lead smelters are reducing production, and the demand is in the off - season. The cost support and weak demand are in a tug - of - war. Short - term lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and macro uncertainties should be continuously monitored [1] - For zinc, the zinc market has strong supply and weak demand, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. Short - term zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely. In the medium - to - long term, TC has room to rise, and the center of zinc prices may shift down. A strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended, and macro - sentiment disturbances should be continuously monitored [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots on May 26, 2025, was 16,650 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day; the closing price of the Shanghai lead futures main contract was 16,860 yuan/ton, up 1.05% [1] - The Shanghai lead basis was - 210 yuan/ton, a change of - 150 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 51,462 lots, up 19.73%; the open interest was 47,379 lots, up 4.59% [1] - The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 1,994 US dollars/ton, up 1.53%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.46, down 0.47% [1] Supply and Demand - From May 17 to May 23, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 67.75%, up 0.4 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 36.7%, down 0.5 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 72.66%, flat [1] - On May 22, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 22.37 US dollars/ton, and the open interest was 139,160 lots, an increase of 759 lots [1] - Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase, while secondary lead production has decreased significantly due to rising raw material costs and limited supply. The demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement is weak [1] Zinc Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots on May 26, 2025, was 22,640 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day; the closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract was 22,215 yuan/ton, down 1.07% [1] - The Shanghai zinc basis was 425 yuan/ton, a change of 300 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 127,189 lots, up 54.61%; the open interest was 114,069 lots, up 91.20% [1] - The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,712.5 US dollars/ton, up 0.30%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.19, down 1.36% [1] Supply and Demand - From May 17 to May 23, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 62.03%, up 1.09 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises was 56.41%, down 2.67 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 62.03%, down 0.38 percentage points [1] - As of May 23, the zinc concentrate port inventory was 35.8 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons from the previous week [1] - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and the zinc ore processing fee is rising. The supply is increasing, while demand from die - cast zinc alloy and zinc oxide industries is weak [1]

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250526：工业硅上方压力较强，多晶硅低位整理 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/26 单位 | 指标 | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 8,500.00 | 0.00% | | | 工业硅期现价格 元/吨 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 7,915.00 | 0.44% | | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 585.00 | -35.00 | | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | 35.50 | 0.00% | | | 多晶硅期现价格 元/吨 元/吨 | 期货主力合约收盘价 基差 | 36,090.00 -590.00 | 0.03% -10.00 | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 8,500.00 | 0.00% | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 8,650.00 | 0.00% | | | 元/ ...