Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US leads to expectations of rushed exports, but the traditional consumption off - season is approaching. The increase in China's electrolytic copper social inventory may cause the furnace copper price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of furnace copper, London copper, and US copper [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - On May 21, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,100 yuan, up 560 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 71,129 lots; the open interest was 163,320 lots, down 2,768 lots; the inventory was 41,218 tons, down 4,520 tons. The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 78,460 yuan, up 120 yuan [2] - The basis of Shanghai copper and spot premiums and discounts showed different changes, with the furnace copper basis down 440 yuan to 360 yuan, and spot premiums and discounts in different regions also changing [2] - The price difference between near - month and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper decreased to varying degrees, with the difference between near - month and continuous - first contracts down 60 yuan to 290 yuan [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price on May 20, 2025 was 9,554.5 dollars, and relevant inventory and price difference data also showed certain changes [2] - On May 21, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 4.6575 dollars, down 0.01 dollars from the previous day, and the total inventory was 173,023 tons, up 2,643 tons [2] Industry News - In April 2025, China's copper enameled wire export volume was 13,217.28 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.28% and a month - on - month increase of 5.67%. From January to April, the cumulative export volume was 45,256.14 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 27% [2] - On May 21, Central Asia Metals (CAML) announced a $119 million acquisition of Australian Mer World Resources (MR.), with the project expected to produce 30,000 tons of copper equivalent annually and start production around 2026 [2] - Ivanhoe Mines suspended operations at the Kaooor - Kakula copper mine due to earthquake activity on May 10, and operations may resume soon as seismic activity has significantly decreased [2] - Global copper mining giant Antofagasta initiated mid - year negotiations with Chinese and Japanese smelters. Smelters may demand a "0 - dollar" processing fee (TC/RC) in the second half of 2025, a 100% increase from the 2024 benchmark price [2] Production and Supply - The expansion project of the copper oxide ore at ACC Metals' Vədi.tepe multi - metal mine will start in the first quarter of 2026, with an initial annual output of 25,000 tons [3] - Freeport - McMoRan Indonesia was allowed to export 1.27 million tons of copper concentrate within 6 months but will be subject to higher export taxes [3] - The second - phase 150,000 - ton production capacity of the copper mine in Ecuador under Jiangxi Copper may be put into production in the second half of 2025 [3] - The second - phase 200,000 - ton/day construction project of Julong Copper Mine may be put into production by the end of 2026 [3] - The maintenance capacity of domestic smelters in May may increase month - on - month, which may lead to a decrease in the production and import of domestic crude copper in June [3] - The Kaooor - Kakula copper smelter may be completed and put into production in June 2025, with an annual output of 600,000 tons of anode copper [3] - The new anode copper production capacity of Yimen Copper Mine increased from 100,000 to 150,000 tons and was successfully put into production on April 12 [3] - The second - phase 150,000 - ton cathode copper project of Jiangxi Copper Baoyuan will start construction in Guizhou and reach a capacity of 260,000 tons after completion [3] - The second - phase 200,000 - ton project of Jinchuan Group's 400,000 - ton intelligent electrolytic copper project produced the first batch of high - purity cathode copper in March [3] Market Inventory - China's bonded - area electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared with last week, while the social inventory increased; LME's electrolytic copper inventory decreased, and COMEX's inventory increased [3] Downstream Market - High copper prices affected new orders, with the capacity utilization rate of China's refined copper (recycled copper rod) industry increasing; the raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper enterprises decreased (increased), and that of recycled copper rod enterprises remained flat (decreased) [3] - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable industry decreased, and the order volume of copper foil packaging increased (slightly decreased) [3] - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod industry increased [3] - The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and other factors may lead to a month - on - month decline in the capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export of domestic copper processing enterprises [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The coking coal and coke market is under pressure due to weak fundamentals and is relatively weaker compared to other black - series varieties. The steel consumption is seasonally weakening, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The coking coal and coke futures prices are expected to run weakly with oscillations [7]. Summary According to Relevant Contents Futures and Spot Data - **Coke Futures**: On May 22, 2025, for example, J2601 was at 1444.5, up 7.0 from the previous day; J2605 was at 1474.0, up 10; J2609 was at 1417.5, up 10.0. The J01 - J05 spread was - 29.5, up 6.0 compared to the previous day [2]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: JM2601 was at 856.5, up 5.5; JM2605 was at 870.5, down 4.5; JM09 was at 842.0, up 3.5. The JM01 - JM05 spread was - 14.0, up 10.0 compared to the previous day [2]. - **Coke Spot**: On May 22, 2025, the Xingtai ex - factory price was 1480, unchanged; the Lvliang ex - factory price was 1150 (the previous day's data seems incorrect); the Heze ex - factory price was 1485, down 1 [2]. - **Coking Coal Spot**: The Australian low - volatile coal was 947, down 2; the Australian medium - volatile coal was 1701, down 1; the Shanxi optimal delivery warrant was 946, unchanged [2]. - **Night - trading Data**: JM2509 closed at 841.5 yuan/ton, J2509 closed at 1416 yuan/ton. The coking profit of the 2509 contract was 233.8 yuan/ton, up 6.2 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - **Coke Fundamental**: The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 245.6, down 0.87 from the previous period, a decrease of 0.35%. The average daily coke output of 247 steel enterprises was 47.3, unchanged. The total inventory of coke decreased in multiple sectors, such as the inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 7.2 to 663.8, a decrease of 1.08% [2]. - **Coking Coal Fundamental**: The average daily output of 110 coal - washing plants was 53.1, down 0.3 from the previous period, a decrease of 0.56%. The inventory of 523 mines increased by 20.0 to 410.5, an increase of 5.13%. The inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased by 4.0 to 791.2, an increase of 0.51% [2]. Important Information - Financial regulatory authorities encourage banks to support the renewal of small - and micro - enterprise loans. In April 2025, key steel enterprises produced 7074 million tons of crude steel, a year - on - year increase of 0.8% [4]. - The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton. The trading volume of iron ore and construction steel decreased on May 21 [7][5]. - The start - up rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 62.36%, up 0.27 percentage points from the previous period. The average daily output was 52.79 million tons, down 0.03 million tons [5]. Trading Strategy - Coke: The first - round price cut has been implemented. The supply is relatively loose, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. - Coking Coal: The supply is sufficient, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the futures market is expected to oscillate weakly [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market for ethylene glycol is currently in a state of cautious sentiment, with participants being more prudent due to uncertainties in macro - market developments and negotiations. The price of ethylene glycol has shown narrow - range adjustments, and the market is affected by factors such as supply - side losses and polyester load. In the short - term, the market will maintain a slow trend, and attention should be paid to polyester production reduction news [2]. - The production and sales of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips have shown certain fluctuations. The production and sales of polyester filament have improved slightly, while the overall production and sales of polyester products are affected by factors such as raw material price increases [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On May 22, 2025, the price of crude oil was $569.63 per ton, with a price increase of 0.04% compared to the previous value [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol in the Northeast Asia region was $781 per ton on May 21, 2025, with no change compared to the previous value. The price of ethylene glycol in the East China region was $600 per ton on May 22, 2025, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - **Polyester Products**: The price index of polyester on May 21, 2025, was $890 per ton, with no change compared to the previous value; the price index of polyester staple fiber was $663 per ton, with an increase of 0.15% compared to the previous value; the price index of bottle - grade polyester chips was $605 per ton, with an increase of 0.83% compared to the previous value [1]. 3.2 Operating Rate Information - The operating rate of ethylene glycol production by the oil - based method was 54.94% on May 21, 2025, with no change compared to the previous value; the operating rate of ethylene glycol production by the coal - based method was 48.18% on May 21, 2025, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - The load rate of the polyester industry's PTA factory was 91.11% on May 21, 2025, with no change compared to the previous value; the load rate of the textile machinery industry in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 68.10% on May 21, 2025, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. 3.3 Market Transaction Information - In the ethylene glycol market, on May 21, 2025, the trading volume of ethylene glycol futures was 186,500 lots, and the closing price was $4414 per ton, with an increase of 0.23% compared to the previous day [2]. - The production and sales of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips were 111.52%, 48.3%, and 69.0% respectively on May 21, 2025, showing certain fluctuations compared to the previous period [2].

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250522：工业硅上方压力较强，多晶硅波动加剧 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 近期趋势 2025/5/22 指标 | 今值 | 变动 | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 8,600.00 | -1.15% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | 7,865.00 | -0.57% | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 735.00 | -55.00 | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 | 35.50 | -2.74% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | 35,860.00 | 0.66% | | 基差 元/吨 | -360.00 | -1,235.00 | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 8,600.00 | -1.15% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 8,750.00 | -1.13% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | 8,500.00 | -1.16% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 | 8,700.00 | ...

| CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 8900.00 | 8900.00 | 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY 2025/5/21 CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D 下 | 元/吨 | 7250.00 | 7250.00 | 0.00% | | 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 7250.00 | 7250.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 7200.00 | 7200.00 | 0.00% | | 游 CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 6630.00 | 6620.00 | 0.15% | | 2025/5/21 CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 元/吨 | 6000.00 | 5995.00 | 0.08% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 6050.00 | 6000.00 | 0.83% | | 装置信息 西北一套120万吨PTA装置计划5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, the futures price is close to the bottom, and long positions can be opportunistically entered. The C2507 contract has a support level of 2270 and a resistance level of 2400 [81]. - For corn starch, the fundamentals are weak. The futures price is still dominated by cost - based pricing and generally follows the trend of corn. The 07 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2600 - 2800, and the spread between the 7 - 9 contracts is expected to strengthen [130]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Review CBOT Corn - As of May 20, the closing price of the CBOT corn main contract was 454.5 cents per bushel, up 2.71% week - on - week. The net long position of managed funds turned negative, with a net long position of - 84,976 contracts as of May 13, down 98,869 contracts week - on - week [8]. - Due to a larger - than - expected increase in the new - season sown area and expected output (5.42% and 6.41% respectively) and good sowing conditions, the CBOT corn price declined weakly in the past month. The USDA May supply - demand report was neutral - to - bullish overall, and recent weather speculation halted the decline [8]. Domestic Corn Futures - As of May 20, the closing price of the DCE corn futures main contract was 2312 yuan per ton, down 1.37% week - on - week. The open interest of corn futures contracts was 2,057,122 contracts, down 2.98% week - on - week [11]. - The number of registered corn warehouse receipts continued to climb, reaching 212,135 contracts as of May 20, significantly higher than in previous years, which pressured the futures price. The previous high of 2380 was the resistance level. After the May Day holiday, the trading volume of corn futures contracts rebounded, with a trading volume of 3,807,079 contracts last week [12]. - The term structure of corn futures contracts showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. Compared with last week, contracts of different maturities all declined, with the near - month contracts having a relatively larger decline. The C07 - C09 spread oscillated weakly and showed a regression [16]. Corn Spot - As of May 20, the national average spot price of corn was 2375.2 yuan per ton, up 0.06% week - on - week. Due to the weakening of the futures price and the stability of the spot price, the basis of the corn main contract strengthened, reaching 63.2 yuan per ton as of May 20, up 33.47 yuan per ton week - on - week [21]. Corn Starch - As of May 20, the closing price of the Dalian corn starch main contract was 2656 yuan per ton, down 1.78% week - on - week. The open interest was 305,333 contracts, down 7.98% week - on - week [87]. - The number of registered corn starch warehouse receipts reached a record high of 26,620 contracts. The weekly trading volume of corn starch futures increased significantly, with a trading volume of 784,400 contracts last week, up 35.32% week - on - week [90]. - As of May 20, the national average price of Grade - 1 standard corn starch was 2847 yuan per ton, up 0.32% week - on - week. The basis of corn starch was 191 yuan per ton, up 57 yuan per ton week - on - week [93]. - From the term structure, the decline of the forward corn starch contracts was smaller last week, showing a pattern of near - weak, medium - strong, and far - weak. The spread between the corn starch and corn futures contracts oscillated weakly, with the spread of the 07 contract at 344 yuan per ton as of May 20, down 4.44% week - on - week [99]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - USDA's May 2025/26 balance sheet predicted that the new - season output would be flat compared to last year, with an increase in feed consumption of 5 million tons, and the ending inventory would drop to a multi - year low [28]. - Huiyiwang's May balance sheet increased the 2024 corn output by 5.6 million tons and the 2025 output by 6.47 million tons, and the ending inventory continued to grow [28]. Import Situation - Although the negotiation on Sino - US tariffs made positive progress, the actual import of US corn was still in a loss. The import of US corn was difficult to resume in the short term, and further negotiation results were awaited [29]. - Since the second half of last year, China's corn import volume has decreased significantly compared to previous years. In April this year, the corn import volume was 180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 84.7%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 95.2%. USDA's prediction of China's corn import volume in 2025/26 was 10 million tons, which seemed high based on the current situation [37]. Domestic Market Conditions - The number of remaining vehicles at deep - processing plants in the morning was at a high level, and the sale of farmers' remaining grain was basically completed. The two - way trading activity decreased, procurement basically stagnated, and corn remained in a net rotation - out state [38][41]. - Port inventories decreased. The inventory of the four northern ports decreased by 1.01% week - on - week, and the inventory of Guangdong ports decreased in various categories [43]. - The inventory of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises remained stable. The corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline [48][52]. Feed Industry - In April 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The output of compound feed, concentrated feed, and additive premixed feed increased by 9.1%, 6.5%, and 9.7% year - on - year respectively [58]. - The ex - factory prices of feed products decreased significantly year - on - year. The ex - factory prices of compound feed and concentrated feed increased slightly month - on - month, while the ex - factory prices of additive premixed feed mainly decreased month - on - month [58]. - The proportion of corn in the compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 42.1%, a year - on - year increase of 4.2 percentage points; the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 12.1%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3 percentage points [58]. Pig Industry - In April, the sales volume of pig feed increased both year - on - year and month - on - month with a large increase. The pig price slightly declined, and the pig - raising profit rebounded from a low level. The pig - grain ratio continued to decline [59][61][65]. Wheat Market - The wheat price remained stable, the wheat - corn price spread narrowed, and the feeding cost - effectiveness of wheat became prominent [68]. Corn Starch - The regional spread between the corn starch and corn spot prices showed a divergent trend. The operating rate and output of corn starch enterprises decreased, and the enterprises suffered serious losses [104][107][110]. - The inventory of corn starch oscillated at a high level, and the demand for corn starch declined and then rebounded [115][120]. Third Part: Future Outlook Corn - The basis is at a relatively high level, and long positions in corn can be opportunistically entered. The current situation has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Overall, the corn futures price is close to the bottom, and long positions can be entered on dips [81]. - It is expected that the weather conditions during the summer harvest and sowing this year will be generally good, but attention should be paid to avoiding rain and rushing to harvest in the Jianghuai and Jianghan summer harvest areas from May 21 - 23 [80]. Corn Starch - The fundamentals of corn starch are weak. The spot price is stable, but enterprises are still in serious losses, with low operating willingness and decreased output. The downstream demand for corn starch has rebounded, and the enterprise inventory oscillates at a high level. The futures price is still dominated by cost - based pricing and generally follows the trend of corn [130].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The easing of Sino-US mutual tariffs has led to expectations of rush exports, but the traditional consumption off-season is approaching, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased compared to last week, which may cause the furnace copper price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see temporarily, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 20, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,540 yuan, a decrease of 280 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 66,697 lots, a decrease of 15,718 lots; the open interest was 166,088 lots, a decrease of 5,147 lots; and the inventory was 45,738 tons, a decrease of 16,175 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 78,340 yuan, an increase of 230 yuan; the premium of anode copper was 800 yuan, an increase of 510 yuan; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was 190 yuan, a decrease of 80 yuan; in North China, it was 50 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan; and in East China, it was 250 yuan, a decrease of 15 yuan [2]. - **Spread (Near - Month and Far - Month)**: The spread between Shanghai copper near - month and Shanghai copper continuous first was 350 yuan, a decrease of 90 yuan; between Shanghai copper continuous first and Shanghai copper continuous second was 290 yuan, a decrease of 70 yuan; and between Shanghai copper continuous second and Shanghai copper continuous first was 190 yuan, a decrease of 40 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,554.5 US dollars, an increase of 31 US dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 170,750 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was 3.16 US dollars, a decrease of 12.36 US dollars; and the spread of 3 - 15 months contract was 121 US dollars, a decrease of 29.50 US dollars [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.674 US dollars, an increase of 0.08 US dollars; the total inventory was 171,622 tons, an increase of 1,958 tons [2] Industry News - **Mine Expansion and Production**: The fluidized copper ore expansion project of ACC Metals' polymetallic mine will be put into production in Q1 2026, with an initial annual output of 25,000 tons. The second - phase 150,000 - ton production capacity of Mirado Mine under Tongling Nonferrous may be put into production in the second half of 2025. The second - phase 200,000 - ton/day project of Julong Copper Mine may be put into production by the end of 2026 [4]. - **Export Restrictions and Tax**: Indonesia's Freeport McMoRan was allowed to export 1.27 million tons of copper concentrate within 6 months but will be subject to higher export taxes [4]. - **Domestic Production and Import**: Domestic copper concentrate production and import volume in May may increase or decrease month - on - month. The import index of Chinese copper concentrate is negative but has risen compared to last week. The out - port volume and inventory of copper concentrate in Chinese ports have increased or decreased compared to last week [4]. - **Scrap Copper**: The negative spread between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper weakens the economy of scrap copper, but the opening of the solid waste import window may lead to an increase or decrease in domestic scrap copper production and import volume. Scrap copper suppliers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a supply shortage [4]. - **Smelter Situation**: Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile has suspended production until May due to problems with the melting furnace. The Kaooor Kakula copper smelter may be completed and put into production in June 2025, with an annual output of 600,000 tons of anode copper [4]. Macroeconomic Situation - The US Senate and House of Representatives reached an agreement on the budget decision in April, including spending 5.5 trillion US dollars in the next ten years, raising the debt ceiling by 5 trillion US dollars, and the government reducing spending by 4 billion US dollars. The US PMI and employment data in May were better than expected, and the CPI annual rate in April was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, which may lead to an interest rate cut by the Fed in September or December [3] Downstream Market - High copper prices have improved new orders, leading to an increase in the capacity utilization rate of China's copper rod (recycled copper rod) industry compared to last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of copper rod enterprises has decreased (increased), and that of recycled copper rod enterprises has remained flat (decreased) [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable industry (raw material and finished product inventory) has decreased (decreased, increased) compared to last week. The order volume and processing rate of copper foil have increased (slightly decreased) compared to last week [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod has increased compared to last week. Due to the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs and the approaching traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production volume, import volume, and export volume of domestic steel enterprises in June may decline [4] Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see temporarily, paying attention to the support levels of 74,000 - 78,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 9,000 - 9,300 US dollars for London copper, and 4.3 - 4.5 US dollars for US copper, as well as the resistance levels of 78,500 - 80,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 9,600 - 9,800 US dollars for London copper, and 4.8 - 5.0 US dollars for US copper [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is advanced to September, coupled with continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world and persistent geopolitical risks, which may make precious metal prices prone to rise and hard to fall. It is recommended that investors lightly test long positions on the main contracts on dips in the short - term. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 761.72 yuan on May 21, 2025, down 7.34 from the previous trading day; the trading volume was 268,945.00, down 85,354.00 from the previous day. International gold (COMEX) futures' closing price was 3232.20 dollars on May 21, 2025, with a trading volume of 221,476.00. [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 8074.00 yuan on May 21, 2025, with a trading volume of - 167,171.00 compared to the previous trading day. International silver (COMEX) futures' closing price was 33.26 dollars on May 21, 2025, with a trading volume of 33,335.00. [1] - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 93.43 on May 21, 2025; the ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 100.36. [1] Important Information - **Geopolitical**: On June 20 (local time), multiple US officials revealed that intelligence indicated Israel might be preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. [1] - **Trade Negotiations**: Goldman Sachs predicts that in the EU - US negotiations, the baseline scenario is a failure to reach an agreement, with "escalated tariff hikes". Japan is considering accepting a US tariff reduction rather than a full exemption. India and the US are discussing a "three - stage" trade agreement, expected to reach a temporary agreement before early July. [1] - **Macroeconomic and Central Bank Policies**: - **US**: The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be depleted as early as August - October, which may slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The Trump administration plans to cut the 2026 fiscal budget by $163 billion. The April manufacturing and service PMI and employment data were better than expected, and the April consumer - end inflation rate was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, which may lead the Fed to cut interest rates in September or December. [1] - **Europe**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2.25%. The euro - zone and German and French manufacturing PMIs in April were 48.7/48/48.2, higher than expected but lower than the previous value. The euro - zone consumer price index annual rate in April was 2.2%, higher than expected but close to the previous value. European Central Bank economists predict that the neutral interest rate is 1.76 - 2.25%, and the ECB may cut interest rates 2 - 3 more times by the end of 2025. [1] - **UK**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May to 4.25%, and continued to reduce its holdings of £100 billion in government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK's August consumer price index CPI (core CPI) annual rate was 2.6% (3.4%), both lower than expected and the previous value. The April SECI manufacturing and service PMIs were 44/48.9, both lower than expected and the previous value. The Bank of England may cut interest rates 2 - 3 more times by the end of 2025. [1] - **Japan**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, and has been reducing its quarterly government bond purchases by 400 billion yen since August 2024. Japan's (Tokyo) March and April consumer price index annual rates were 3.6% (3.5%), lower than expected and the previous value (higher than expected and the previous value). With the Japanese largest union Renzo achieving an average wage increase of 5.46%, some Bank of Japan officials hope to raise interest rates to 1% in the second or third quarter, leading the market to expect a possible interest rate hike around July. [1] Trading Strategy Investors are advised to lightly test long positions on the main contracts on dips in the short - term. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3000 - 3200 dollars and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700 dollars; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 730 - 750 yuan and the resistance level is around 850 - 900 yuan. For London silver, the support level is around 28 - 30 dollars and the resistance level is around 35 - 36 dollars; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 7800 - 8000 yuan and the resistance level is around 8600 - 8900 yuan. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in May is expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate has increased month - on - month. The price of lithium carbonate is likely to fall rather than rise due to cost factors, but investors should be wary of production cuts or construction halts in the domestic and foreign lithium industries. It is recommended that investors mainly place short positions when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the support level around 53,000 - 60,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Futures Market - **Price**: On May 20, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 60,960 yuan/ton, 60,860 yuan/ton, 62,100 yuan/ton, and 62,100 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend compared with the previous trading day [1] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 242,276 lots, an increase of 18,212 lots compared with the previous day; the open interest was 339,673 lots, an increase of 3,866 lots [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 36,545 tons, a decrease of 139 tons compared with the previous day [1] - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis also showed certain changes. For example, the spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts decreased by 3,180 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Lithium Spot Market - **Lithium Ore**: The average prices of various lithium ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone decreased to varying degrees on May 20, 2025 [1] - **Lithium Compounds**: The average prices of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other lithium compounds also showed a downward trend. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) decreased by 450 yuan/ton [1] - **Other Products**: The prices of products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate also decreased to varying degrees [1] 3.3 Industry News - **New Project Commissioning**: Shandong Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of CATL, officially put its energy storage and power battery production base in Yanzhou, Jining into operation. The first - phase project has a total scale of 60GWh. The second and third phases are expected to be put into operation in the next two years, which is expected to form a global leading 100 - billion - level new energy battery industrial cluster [1] - **Production Plan**: Salt Lake Co., Ltd. said that with the support of China Minmetals and China Salt Lake, the newly built 40,000 - ton lithium salt project will produce 3,000 tons of lithium carbonate this year [1] - **Project Commencement**: On May 19, the annual production project of 10GWh of electronic energy - storage cells and 10GWh of ion batteries 2PAC of Changyi Zhongdian (Yunnan) Energy Storage Technology Co., Ltd. started construction in Simao Industrial Park, Yunnan [1] 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: After the Greenbushes project of Tianqi Lithium is put into operation in October 2025, the total production capacity will reach 24,000 tons/year, which may lead to a decline in the price of domestic (imported) lithium ore. The production volume of lithium carbonate in China in May is expected to increase, and the supply is expected to be loose. Some production lines will undergo inspections, and the production costs and profits of different production methods vary [2] - **Demand Side**: The monthly average production cost of lithium iron phosphate by different production processes in China is 32,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton. The production volume of lithium iron phosphate in May is expected to increase. The production costs of some cobalt - related products are rising, and the production volume of some products may change [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to tight raw materials, some secondary lead smelters have cut production, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate widely in the short term [1]. - For zinc, the macro - sentiment is stable and positive, but the fundamentals of SHFE zinc are weak. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the center of the zinc price may shift down in the long - term. A strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - On May 21, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,650 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day; the closing price of the SHFE lead futures main contract was 16,845 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [1]. - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 24,386 lots, down 9.32%; the open interest was 22,798 lots, down 16.76% [1]. - LME lead inventory was 245,750 tons, unchanged; SHFE lead warrant inventory was 44,980 tons, down 10.12% [1]. Company and Industry News - Huayu Mining completed a mining volume of 283.3 million tons and a beneficiation volume of 242.66 million tons in 2024. The Shannan Branch completed a lead - zinc - antimony metal volume of 36,200 tons, including 19,600 tons of zinc, 14,400 tons of lead, 2235 tons of antimony, and 53.57 tons of silver [1]. Fundamental Analysis - The operation rate of primary lead is stable with a slight increase, while the operation rate of secondary lead has decreased significantly due to rising raw material costs and limited supplies [1]. - The demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement is weak, providing limited support for the lead price [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - On May 21, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,540 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day; the closing price of the SHFE zinc futures main contract was 22,435 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [1]. - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 94,706 lots, down 24.89%; the open interest was 76,630 lots, down 10.44% [1]. - LME zinc inventory was 156,725 tons, unchanged; SHFE zinc warrant inventory was 1,526 tons, down 10.29% [1]. Company and Industry News - Zijin Mining's Kyzyl - Tashtyg lead - zinc mine in Russia will maintain normal operation, canceling the plan to suspend operations in June. In 2024, the mine produced about 71,300 DMT of zinc concentrate and about 4750 tons of lead concentrate [1]. - In April 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 494,700 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 37.6% and a year - on - year increase of 72.07%. The cumulative import volume from January to April was 1.7125 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.26% [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The limitation of raw material shortages on smelter production has weakened, and production is expected to increase [1]. - After the May Day holiday, the operation rate of downstream enterprises has increased, but the terminal market has not improved, and downstream enterprises are bearish on the zinc price and have weak procurement enthusiasm [1]. - Different downstream sectors have different performances: galvanizing has mixed performance, die - casting zinc alloy has good electronic orders but weak traditional hardware orders, and zinc oxide has uncertain export orders due to anti - dumping investigations [1].