Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report believes that the downside space for urea is limited, and recommends a strategy of buying on dips for the future market of urea. The main reasons are that urea exports may gradually be liberalized, with considerable export profits due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and domestic agricultural demand will support the market as it has not been fully released yet and the upstream inventory pressure has significantly decreased [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On May 20, UR01 closed at 1772 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan or 0.06% from the previous day), UR05 at 1775 yuan/ton (down 55 yuan or 3.01%), and UR09 at 1849 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan or 0.11%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In different regions on May 20, prices in Shanxi were 1760 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan or 0.56% from the previous day), in Henan 1900 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan or 0.52%), and remained unchanged in Hebei, Northeast China, and Jiangsu [1]. Basis and Spreads - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 was 115 yuan/ton on May 20, up 55 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Spread**: The 01 - 05 spread was -3 yuan/ton on May 20, up 56 yuan from the previous day [1]. Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan, Shanxi, and Shandong remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton, 850 yuan/ton, and 1180 yuan/ton respectively on May 20 [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2540 yuan/ton respectively on May 20. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu were 5430 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan or 0.37%) and 5550 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan or 1.77%) respectively [1]. Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1848 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1860 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1842 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1849 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1851 yuan/ton, and the position was 219,169 lots [1]. Trading Strategy The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, and it is expected that the 09 contract will operate in the range of 1800 - 1950 yuan/ton [1].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The report suggests that methanol does not have the potential to go long, and it is better to wait for a short - selling opportunity after a rebound. The view has been initially verified [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On May 20, 2025, MA01 was 2326 yuan/ton (-0.60% compared to May 19), MA05 was 2272 yuan/ton (-1.22%), and MA09 was 2256 yuan/ton (-0.70%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in different regions showed various changes. For example, in太仓 it was 2310 yuan/ton (-1.18%), in Shandong 2315 yuan/ton (-0.43%), and in Hubei 2395 yuan/ton (+1.27%) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of 太仓 spot - MA was -16 yuan/ton, a change of -13.50 yuan compared to May 19 [1]. 2. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: Coal and natural gas prices mostly decreased. For example, 部水多斯Q5500 was 417.50 yuan/ton (-1.18%), and industrial natural gas prices in some areas remained unchanged [1]. - **Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profit was 423.40 yuan/ton (-16.51%), while natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained at -410 yuan/ton. Downstream profits of methanol generally increased, such as 西北MTO with a 161.30% increase and MTBE with a 45.11% increase [1]. 3. Information - **Domestic**: The main contract MA2509 of methanol futures oscillated downward, opening at 2278 yuan/ton, closing at 2256 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 540,027 lots and a position of 765,378 lots, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in position [1]. - **Foreign**: In the Middle East, 3 sets of methanol plants with a total capacity of 5.6 million tons reduced their operation load, and there were plans for other plants to stop for maintenance in mid - late May. In Southeast Asia, 2 sets of plants with a total capacity of 3.45 million tons were shut down [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - The previous suggestion of waiting for a short - selling opportunity after the 09 contract's rebound has been initially verified. The reasons include the unsustainable bullishness of macro - sentiment, the relatively fast return of domestic coal - to - methanol supply, and the relatively high valuation of methanol [1].

5、财政部数据显示,4月份,中央一般公共预算收入同比增长1.6%,全国税收收入同比增长1.9%,均为今年以来首次实现月度正增长。 6、国家能源局数据显示,4月份,全社会用电量7721亿千瓦时,同比增长4.7%。1-4月,全社会用电量累计31566亿千瓦时,同比增长 3.1%,其中规模以上工业发电量为29840亿千瓦时。 7、5月20日,全国主港铁矿石成交101.50万吨,环比增23.1%;237家主流贸易商建筑钢材成交10.11万吨,环比增3.1%。 宏源期货煤焦日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | ■日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 丽日 涨跌 | | | 昨日 | ■日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 | 1437.5 | 1454.5 | -17.0 | JM2601 | 0.758 | 855.5 | -4.5 | J01基美 ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250521：工业硅上方压力较强，多晶硅波动加剧 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | 2025/5/21 指标 | | | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 8,700.00 | -1.69% | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 7,910.00 | -2.71% | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 790.00 | 70.00 | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 36.50 | -1.35% | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 35,625.00 | -4.10% | | 元/吨 | 基差 | | 875.00 | 1,025.00 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 8,700.00 | -1.69% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 8,850.00 | -1.12% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The ethylene glycol market is currently in a weak state. In the short - term, it will maintain a slow - moving trend, mainly focusing on destocking, but the destocking efficiency is relatively low. The prices of polyester products such as polyester staple fiber, polyester chips, and polyester filaments are following the downward trend, and the production and sales of polyester are still sluggish. The reduction in production of polyester and the delay in equipment maintenance are affecting the demand for ethylene glycol [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Information - Crude oil price: On May 20, 2025, the price of crude oil was $569.63 per ton, with a daily increase of 0.04% [1]. - Ethylene price index: On May 20, 2025, the price was $781.00 per ton, with no change [1]. - Ethylene glycol price: In the East China region on May 21, 2025, the ex - factory price of ethylene glycol was $600.00 per ton, with a 5550.00% increase compared to the previous value; on May 20, 2025, the price was $4570.00 per ton, with no change [1]. - Polyester price index: On May 20, 2025, the polyester price index was $8900.00 per ton, with no change; the polyester staple fiber price index was $6620.00 per ton, with a 0.68% increase [1]. 3.2 Operating Rate and Load Rate - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol was 54.94% on May 20, 2025, with no change; the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 48.18% on May 20, 2025, with no change [1]. - The load rate of the PTA industry factory was 91.11% on May 20, 2025, with a 0.01% decrease; the load rate of the weaving machine industry in Zhejiang and Jiangsu PTA was 68.10% on May 20, 2025, with no change [1]. 3.3 Market Trends and Trading - The ethylene glycol market is weak. The night - session and intraday trading show that the contract is at a premium, and the price is around $100 - $105 per ton. The external market of ethylene glycol is also weak, with the price of recent ship cargoes falling to around $0.98 per ton [2]. - The trading volume of ethylene glycol is affected by the reduction in production of polyester and the delay in equipment maintenance. The enthusiasm of market participants has decreased, and the market has entered a cooling - off period [2]. 3.4 Impact on Related Products - The prices of polyester products such as polyester staple fiber, polyester chips, and polyester filaments are following the downward trend, with price decreases of 0.68%, 1.64%, and 0.68% respectively on May 20, 2025 [1][2]. - The production and sales of polyester are still sluggish, and the sentiment in the polyester industry has not fully recovered [2].

| | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/21 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/5/20 2025/5/20 | 美元/桶 美元/桶 | 62.03 65.38 | 62.69 65.54 | 涨跌(幅) -1.05% -0.24% | | 上 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/20 | 美元/吨 | 569.63 | 569.38 | 0.04% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/5/20 | | 美元/吨 | 699.00 | 709.50 | -1.48% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/20 | 美元/吨 | 828.00 | 840.67 | -1.51% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/5/20 | 元/吨 | 4732.00 | 4776.0 ...

| 元用用品 | 贵金属日评20250520:美联储暗示降息或推迟到9月,欧洲央行警告黄金或威胁金融稳定 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-05-13 | 2025-05-19 | 2025-05-16 | 收盘价 | 751.80 | 767.68 | -11.82 | 755. 86 | 4. 06 | | | | | 成交重 | 481303.00 | 625489.00 | -271,190.00 | 354299.00 | -127,004.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | -1,577.00 | -4, 677.00 | 209904.00 | 211481.00 | 214581.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 17238.00 | 17238.00 | 17238.00 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 上海黄金 | ...

| | | 甲醇日评20250520: 反弹沾空初步印证 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 单位 2025/5/16 指标 2025/5/19 (绝对目) | | | | | 変化值 (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2340.00 | 2353.00 | -13.00 | -0.55% | | | | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2300.00 | 2367.00 | -67.00 | -2.83% | | | 甲醇期货价格 (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2272.00 | 2284.00 | -12.00 | -0.53% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2337.50 | 2372.50 | -35.00 | -1.48% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2325.00 | 2360.00 | -35.00 | -1.48% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2355.00 | 2385.00 | -30.00 | -1.26% | | 及 ...

| 元順期货 | | | 碳 酸 锌 8 评20250520:国内碳酸锂5月供给预期偏松,国内碳酸锂社会库存量环比增加 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-05-19 | 2025-05-16 | 2025-05-13 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 64600.00 | 62120.00 | 63200.00 | 2,480.00 | | | | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 61320.00 | 61920.00 | 63240.00 | -600.00 | | | | 连二合约 | 收盘价 | 62340.00 | 62980.00 | 63220.00 | -640.00 | ---- | | | | 收盘价 | 62340.00 | 62980.00 | 64400.00 | -640.00 | 3 | | | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 61180.00 | 61800.00 | 63220.00 | -620.00 | | | 碳酸锂期货 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report believes that the decline space of urea is limited, and it recommends going long on urea on dips. The main reasons are that urea exports may gradually be liberalized, and the export profit is considerable due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Additionally, domestic agricultural demand provides support as the peak season for top - dressing of crops like corn is coming, and inventory pressure has significantly reduced, making a sharp decline in urea prices unlikely [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On May 19, compared with May 16, UR01 decreased by 17 yuan/ton, UR05 in Shandong decreased by 19 yuan/ton (-0.95%), UR05 in Shanxi decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-1.03%), UR09 decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-1.60%), and another price decreased by 50 yuan/ton (-2.75%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Henan, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.52%); in Hebei, it decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-1.55%); in Northeast China, there was no change; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.52%) [1]. - **Spread and Price Difference**: The spread between Shandong spot and UR decreased by 11 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1858 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1864 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1835 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1847 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1847 yuan/ton, and the position was 221735 lots [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy The strategy is to go long on dips. However, it should be noted that if the price rises too fast in the short term, policies may change again [1].