| | | | 碳 锌 8 评20250430:国内碳酸锂4月供给预期偏松,三元材料厂库存量较上周减少 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-04-29 | 2025-04-28 | 2025-04-23 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 66100.00 | 67100.00 | 69060.00 | -1,000.00 | | | | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 66240.00 | 66960.00 | 69000.00 | -720.00 | | | | 连二合约 | 收盘价 | 67460.00 | 68100.00 | 68980.00 | -640.00 | | | | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 67460.00 | 68100.00 | 69920.00 | -640.00 | | | | | 收盘价 | 66260.00 | 66960.00 | 68980.00 | -700.00 | | | 砖酸包期货 | | 成交量(手) | 1 ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250430：重心下移 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 2025/4/30 | 指标 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 元/吨 9,350.00 -1.06% | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 工业硅期现价格 元/吨 8,540.00 -2.95% | 期货主力合约收盘价 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 元/吨 810.00 160.00 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 元/千克 38.00 0.00% | N型多晶硅料 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 多晶硅期现价格 元/吨 37,320.00 -1.22% | 期货主力合约收盘价 | | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Nonferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - Cost Support vs. Weak Demand, Lead Price Ranges Consolidate [1] - Report Date: April 29, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - The global lead concentrate supply is expected to increase in the long - term, but there is short - term uncertainty, with the mine end in tight balance and stable TC. Tight scrap battery supply strongly supports lead prices [2]. - Primary lead production increases as previously - shut - down smelters resume operations, while secondary lead production decreases significantly due to raw material shortages and high costs. This supports lead prices, but the off - season consumption and approaching May Day holiday limit price increases. The lead price is expected to range between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton, with attention to raw material and macro factors [2]. - Lead batteries for electric bicycles and cars are in the off - season. Distributors mainly make just - in - time purchases and consume existing inventories. Producers are cautious in buying lead ingots, preferring low - priced sources [2]. - Secondary lead producers hold back inventory due to cost pressure and losses, while primary lead holders actively sell and reduce premiums at the end of the month and before the May Day holiday, leading to a decrease in social inventory [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: SMM1 lead ingot average price rose 0.45% to 16,875 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead main contract closing price rose 0.30% to 16,845 yuan/ton; London lead closing price (electronic trading) rose 1.20% to 1,945 US dollars/ton [14]. - **Basis**: Data on the basis between different contracts (e.g., continuous one - continuous two) is presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [15]. 2. Primary Lead Production Changes - **TC and Smelter Profit**: Domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained at 650 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee at - 20 US dollars/dry ton. Smelter profit (excluding by - product revenue) reached 28.23 yuan/ton as of April 18 [27]. - **Production Capacity and Output**: The primary lead production capacity utilization rate increased by 2.98 percentage points to 66.23%. The weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises increased in some regions due to the resumption of previously - shut - down production in Henan, while some maintenance was postponed [28][36]. 3. Secondary Lead Production Changes - **Scrap Battery Price and Profit**: As of April 25, the average scrap battery price was 10,400 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. Tight supply led to price increases and strong hoarding sentiment. Large - scale secondary lead enterprises had a comprehensive profit of - 563 yuan/ton, and small - and medium - scale enterprises had - 794 yuan/ton [45][51]. - **Inventory and Production**: Secondary lead raw material inventory decreased to 129,600 tons, and finished product inventory increased to 12,740 tons as of April 25. The secondary lead enterprise production capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.28 percentage points to 61.18%, and weekly production declined [54][55]. 4. Consumption - **Battery Production Capacity Utilization**: The lead - acid battery production capacity utilization rate increased by 1.06 percentage points to 73.56%. Despite the off - season, overall production remained high, and producers preferred deeply - discounted lead ingots [64]. 5. Import and Export - **Profit Window**: As of April 17, refined lead export suffered a loss of about 2,600 yuan/ton. As of April 28, the import profit was - 545.42 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [76]. 6. Inventory - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of April 24, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 46,200 tons, showing a decrease. The preference for primary lead in downstream purchases led to inventory reduction, but the process may slow down during the May Day holiday [86]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of April 25, SHFE refined lead inventory was 45,700 tons, showing a decrease; LME inventory was 274,100 tons, also decreasing [91]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows data on primary lead production, secondary lead production, exports, imports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory from January 2024 to March 2025 [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market's supply - demand imbalance remains unimproved, with short - term prices lacking positive drivers. Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a weak and volatile consolidation in the range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton, and the strategy is to short on rebounds. As the southwest production area enters the flat - water period, attention should be paid to the resumption of production of local silicon enterprises. For polysilicon, due to the strong expectation of weakening terminal demand, the price decline in the industrial chain is transmitted from the bottom up. It is expected to have a short - term weak and volatile consolidation in the range of 36,500 - 38,500 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Price Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract increased by 0.29% to 8,780 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures main contract rose by 2.06% to 38,390 yuan/ton. However, most industrial silicon spot prices declined, such as the不通氧553 in East China dropping by 2.58% to 9,450 yuan/ton. Polysilicon prices also generally decreased, with N - type material down 3.80% to 38.00 yuan/kg [8]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Silicon stone procurement did not improve, and prices were weakly stable. During the dry season, the electricity cost of southwest silicon enterprises was at a high level. Electrode prices remained stable, with silicon coal showing minor fluctuations and petroleum coke prices trending weakly [14][20][25]. - **Product Profit**: In March, the average profit of national industrial silicon 553 was - 1,622 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 177 yuan/ton, while the 421 average profit was - 1,782 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 247 yuan/ton [35]. - **Production and Supply**: The number of open furnaces was relatively stable, with a total of 797 furnaces and 219 open furnaces last week, a decrease of 3 compared to the previous value. Some silicon enterprises postponed their resumption plans. In March, the polysilicon output was 96,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons but a year - on - year decrease of 74,900 tons. Some polysilicon enterprises may delay resumption or reduce production in May [36][64]. - **Downstream Demand**: Downstream demand was weak. Polysilicon plants maintained a large - scale production reduction. Organic silicon prices hit a new low, and most manufacturers reduced production. The silicon - aluminum alloy started with minor fluctuations, and the demand for industrial silicon was mainly for rigid procurement. The demand for photovoltaic components was weak, with a significant reduction in forward orders and a downward trend in prices [3][83][100]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of April 27, the total polysilicon inventory was 259,000 tons. The social inventory of industrial silicon remained at a high level, with a short - term de - stocking pressure [3][117]. 2. Sub - industry Analysis - **Polysilicon**: The industry continued to reduce production. Some enterprises may delay resumption or reduce production in May due to the downward price trend. The inventory was at a high level [62][64]. - **Silicon Wafer**: Due to weak demand, the prices of all sizes of silicon wafers decreased, and there was a strong expectation of production reduction [68]. - **Battery Chip**: The market sentiment was weak, and prices were expected to continue to decline [71]. - **Component**: Forward orders decreased, and prices were prone to fall but difficult to rise [74]. - **Organic Silicon**: Some manufacturers carried out maintenance, resulting in a reduction in supply. The supply - demand contradiction was prominent, and prices hit a new low. Although the downstream purchasing enthusiasm improved slightly later, the supply - demand imbalance still existed [83][88]. - **Silicon - Aluminum Alloy**: The start - up rate fluctuated slightly, and prices showed a minor increase. As of April 25, the ADC12 average price was 20,600 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month, and the A356 average price was 20,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.99% [100][105].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The resumption of production at the Wabang Manxiang tin mine in Myanmar still takes time and the fee standard has increased, there are still disruptions in refined tin production in Malaysia, and the inventories of refined tin at home and abroad are decreasing. These factors may cause the price of Shanghai tin to be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously, paying attention to the support levels and pressure levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Tin Futures**: On April 28, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 260,570, down 2,270 from the previous day; trading volume was 48,003 lots, down 24,008 lots; open interest was 12,035 lots, down 5,566 lots; inventory was 8,722 tons, down 192 tons [1]. - **Shanghai Tin Basis and Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin semi - average price was 260,200, down 2,800; the Shanghai tin basis was - 370, down 530; the spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract was - 20, up 50; the spread between the first - consecutive and the second - consecutive contract was 80, down 320 [1]. - **London Tin**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) on April 25 was 31,975; the LME tin 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 166.99; the LME tin 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 135; the LME global tin inventory was 2,845 tons; the LME registered inventory was 2,415 tons; the cancelled warrants were 430 tons; the Shanghai - London tin price ratio was 8.15, down 0.07 [1]. 3.2 Project Information - **Oropesa Project**: It will make the company the first European vertically - integrated tin producer from mine to metal. The feasibility study outlines a 1.4 - million - ton - per - year open - pit mine, expected to produce an average of 3,405 tons of tin per year over a 12 - year mine life and be processed at a local smelter in Spain. The first ore reserve report shows a reserve of 15.9 million tons, with a tin grade of 0.36% and a metal content of 57,900 tons [1]. 3.3 Industry News - **Wabang Mining**: On April 23, 2025, a symposium on the resumption of production of the Manxiang tin mine was held, clarifying the process of obtaining mining, concentrator, and exploration licenses. The new fee standards are significantly higher than those in 2023, which will increase the cost pressure on low - altitude mines and small - and medium - sized concentrators. The full resumption of normal mining is expected to take about two months, and the resumption of production in Wabang and the restart of the Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) may relieve supply pressure to some extent [1]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The resumption of production in Wabang and Congo (Kinshasa) may affect domestic tin ore production and imports, and domestic tin concentrate processing fees are expected to decline, indicating a tight supply of domestic tin ore. The supply of scrap tin is expected to increase, and the production of recycled tin in China in May may increase. The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and Yunnan have decreased, and the production and inventory of refined tin in China in May may decrease. The export volume of Malaysia's MSC smelting company may increase, and the import volume of refined tin in China in June may increase [1]. - **Demand**: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased, and the operating rate of tin solder production capacity in China in May may decline. The import volume of solder strips in China in May may decrease, and the export volume may increase. The production volume of tin - plated sheets in China in June may increase, while the import and export volumes may decrease. The operating rate of lead - acid battery production capacity in China has increased [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the expected continued loosening of domestic lithium carbonate supply and demand, the lithium carbonate price may be difficult to rise and is likely to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the support level around 33,000 - 60,000 and the resistance level around 70,000 - 75,000 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Prices - On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of lithium carbonate futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts decreased compared with April 25, 2025. The trading volume of the active contract increased by 37,558 hands, and the open interest increased by 28,827 hands. The inventory increased by 1,292 tons [1] - The average prices of various lithium ores, lithium compounds, and battery materials decreased to varying degrees from April 22 to April 28, 2025. For example, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 950 yuan/ton [1] Industry Projects - Guoxuan High - tech's Guoxuan New Energy Battery Manufacturing Base project started in April 2025. It is expected to be put into operation after completion and commissioning in October, producing 314Ah large - capacity square lithium iron phosphate battery cells and their system integration products for the energy storage field [2] - On April 24, 2025, the first - phase project of Luoyuan Times New Energy Battery Industrial Base officially started. With a total investment of 6.5 billion yuan, it is expected to produce 40GWh of new energy batteries annually after production, with an annual output value of over 10 billion yuan [3] - Tongliao Changtong New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. in Inner Mongolia plans a new energy recycling project. After completion, it will have an annual utilization of 10,000 tons of lithium batteries, dismantle 10,000 tons of batteries, and disassemble 20,000 sets of scrapped wind - power and photovoltaic units, and build an energy storage project [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes mine's 30,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, which may lead to a decline in the price of domestic lithium ores and an increase in production or imports in May [4] - The production of lithium carbonate in China's industry and battery sectors may increase in May, and the supply is expected to be loose. Some production lines will be under maintenance, and new production capacities will be put into operation [4] - The production and inventory of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products in China may change in May. For example, the inventory of lithium carbonate in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the social inventory of lithium carbonate may increase [4][5] Market Trends and Trading Strategies - Downstream procurement willingness for cobalt, manganese, and other products is low, affecting production and sales. The processing fees of ternary precursors and materials have decreased, and production profits are negative in some cases [5] - The demand for energy storage power stations is gradually recovering, and the production, shipment, and inventory of energy storage batteries, power cells, and lithium batteries may increase in May and June [5] - Due to the expected continued loosening of domestic lithium carbonate supply and demand, it is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price rebounds [5]

Group 1: Market Data Summary Gold - Shanghai gold futures: On April 28, 2025, the closing price was 780.04, down 7.16 from the previous day and 51.38 from the previous week. The trading volume was 543,425, down 119,247 from the previous day and 329,155 from the previous week. The open interest was 204,671, down 53,099 from the previous week. The inventory was 15,648 kg, unchanged from the previous day and down 30 kg from the previous week [1]. - Shanghai gold spot (Au T+D): The closing price was 778.22 yuan/gram, down 6.71 from the previous day and 48.45 from the previous week. The trading volume was 68,346, up 3,326 from the previous day and down 56,122 from the previous week. The open interest was 217,932, down 7,262 from the previous day and 7,380 from the previous week [1]. - COMEX gold futures: The closing price was 3,354.80, up 24.60 from the previous day and 13.50 from the previous week. The trading volume was 215,264, down 19,751 from the previous day and 20,095 from the previous week. The open interest was 324,294, down 3,356 from the previous day and 29,345 from the previous week. The inventory was 41,705,859.42 troy ounces, unchanged from the previous day and down 1,503,863.55 from the previous week [1]. - London gold spot: The price was 3,277.30 dollars/ounce, unchanged from the previous day and down 28.35 from the previous week [1]. Silver - Shanghai silver futures: The closing price was 8,168.00 yuan/ten grams, down 112.00 from the previous day and 6.00 from the previous week. The trading volume was 642,831, up 4,704 from the previous day and down 308,586 from the previous week. The open interest was 280,886, down 31,364 from the previous day and 58,707 from the previous week. The inventory was 934,421 ten - gram units, up 10,825 from the previous day and 10,693 from the previous week [1]. - Shanghai silver spot (Ag T+D): The closing price was 8,173.00 yuan/ten grams, down 97.00 from the previous day and up 19.00 from the previous week. The trading volume was 471,636, up 50,462 from the previous day and down 307,232 from the previous week. The open interest was 3,578,110, up 4,070 from the previous day and down 104,152 from the previous week [1]. - COMEX silver futures: The closing price was 33.08 dollars/ounce, up 0.05 from the previous day and 0.53 from the previous week. The trading volume was 38,136, down 13,986 from the previous day and 11,451 from the previous week. The open interest was 27,404, down 6,748 from the previous day and 28,611 from the previous week. The inventory was 499,103,540.55 troy ounces, up 1,195,298.48 from the previous week [1]. - London silver spot: The price was 32.31 dollars/ounce, up 1.03 from the previous week [1]. Price Ratios and Other Commodities - Gold - to - silver price ratios: Shanghai gold futures/Shanghai silver futures was 95.07, down 6.22 from the previous week; Shanghai gold spot/Shanghai silver spot was 95.22, down 6.16 from the previous week; New York gold futures/New York silver futures was 101.43, down 1.24 from the previous week; London gold spot/London silver spot was 98.31, down 4.00 from the previous week [1]. - Other commodities: INE crude oil was 498.00 yuan/barrel, up 1.90 from the previous day and 15.30 from the previous week; ICE Brent crude was 64.53 dollars/barrel, down 1.30 from the previous day and 3.32 from the previous week; NYMEX crude was 61.89 dollars/barrel, down 1.28 from the previous day and 1.86 from the previous week; Shanghai copper futures was 77,580.00 yuan/ton, up 140.00 from the previous day and 460.00 from the previous week; LME copper spot was 9,360.00 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 9.00 from the previous week; Shanghai rebar was 3,101.00 yuan/ton, up 28.00 from the previous day and 54.00 from the previous week; Dalian iron ore was 709.00 yuan/ton, up 1.50 from the previous day and down 0.50 from the previous week [1]. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Indices - Interest rates: Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.60%, up 0.04 from the previous day and down 0.11 from the previous week; SHIBOR one - year was 1.77%, unchanged. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.2300%, down 0.06 from the previous day and 0.11 from the previous week; the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 1.9800%, down 0.04 from the previous day and 0.13 from the previous week; the US 10 - year Treasury breakeven inflation rate was 2.2500%, down 0.02 from the previous day and up 0.02 from the previous week [1]. - Exchange rates: The US dollar index was 98.9357, down 0.65 from the previous day and 0.49 from the previous week; the US dollar - to - Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.2043, unchanged; the euro - to - Chinese yuan central parity rate was 8.2125, down 0.01 from the previous day and 0.11 from the previous week [1]. - Stock indices: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,288.4147, down 6.65 from the previous day and 11.34 from the previous week; the S&P 500 was 5,528.7500, up 3.54 from the previous day and 246.05 from the previous week; the UK FTSE 100 was 8,417.3400, up 2.09 from the previous day and 141.68 from the previous week; the French CAC40 was 7,573.7600, up 37.50 from the previous day and 287.90 from the previous week; the German DAX was 22,271.6700, up 29.22 from the previous day and 1,065.81 from the previous week; the Nikkei 225 was 35,839.9900, up 134.25 from the previous day and 1,462.39 from the previous week; the South Korean Composite Index was 2,548.8600, up 2.56 from the previous day and 78.45 from the previous week [1]. Group 2: Important Information Gold - The US Treasury's Q2 borrowing expectation was significantly raised by over three times, but after excluding the debt - ceiling impact, it decreased. Bessemer has a new bond - issuing strategy: stable short - term bonds, slow long - term bonds, and close attention to stablecoins [1]. - The US Dallas Fed's business activity index in April was - 35.8, lower than the expected - 14.1 and the previous value of - 16.3 [1]. Silver - The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30. On April 10, an agreement on the budget resolution was reached, including a 5.3 - trillion - dollar tax cut over the next decade, a 5 - billion - dollar increase in the debt ceiling, and a 4 - billion - dollar reduction in government spending. The US Treasury's Q2 borrowing was 51.4 billion dollars, three times higher than expected, but after excluding the debt - ceiling impact, the borrowing demand was lower than expected. The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicted that the Treasury's funds might be exhausted as early as October, which could slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The US may reduce the tariff levels on China and other countries, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in June, September, October, or December [1]. Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, reducing the deposit mechanism rate to 2.25%. The manufacturing PMIs in the eurozone, Germany, and France in April were 48.7, 48, and 48.2 respectively, higher than expected but lower than the previous values. The annual CPI rates in the eurozone and Germany in August were 2.2% and 2.3% respectively, lower than expected and the previous values. European Central Bank economists predicted a neutral interest rate of 1.75 - 2.25%, suggesting that the ECB may cut interest rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England kept the key interest rate at 4.5% in March and continued to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The annual CPI (core CPI) rates in the UK in February were 2.8% (below 3.5%), lower than expected and the previous values. The S&P Global PMI for manufacturing and services in April was 44 and 48.95 respectively, lower than expected and the previous values. The GDP growth rate in January was - 0.1%, lower than expected and the previous value, increasing the expectation of a rate cut in May and potentially 2 - 3 more rate cuts before the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark rate to 0.5%. It has been reducing the quarterly government - bond purchase scale by 400 billion yen since August 2024. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru plans to coordinate a 2025 supplementary budget to distribute a 50,000 - yen subsidy per person (with a total scale of nearly 10 trillion yen) and a 2 - trillion - yen tax cut on daily necessities. The annual CPI rates in Tokyo in March and April were 3.6% and 3.5% respectively (lower and higher than expected and the previous values). The largest Japanese labor union, Rengo, achieved an average salary increase of 5.46%. Some Bank of Japan officials hope to raise interest rates to 1% in the second or third quarter, leading to market expectations of a rate hike around July [1]. Group 3: Core View and Trading Strategy - Due to the expectations of interest - rate cuts and fiscal easing by central banks in multiple countries, continuous gold purchases by central banks, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, precious - metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,150 - 3,250 and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 750 - 770 and the resistance level around 850 - 900. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 28 - 30 and the resistance level around 35 - 36. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 7,400 - 7,800/8,000 and the resistance level around 8,600 - 8,900 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The explosion at an Iranian port over the weekend may affect market sentiment as Iran is a major methanol supplier to China. However, since most methanol is imported from Assalueh and Blk ports which are currently operating normally, the actual impact on methanol imports may be limited. The short - term market sentiment may be slightly bullish, and the report suggests short - term observation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Price and Profit Data - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2370 yuan/ton on April 28, up 0.72% from April 25; MA05 closed at 2389 yuan/ton, up 0.80%; MA09 closed at 2310 yuan/ton, up 0.96% [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: In different regions, prices showed various changes. For example, in Shandong, it decreased by 0.40% to 2480 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it dropped by 0.91% to 2170 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Difference**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA decreased from 77 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Coal and industrial natural gas prices remained unchanged on April 28 compared to April 25 [1]. - **Profit Situations**: Coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 6.56% to 569.30 yuan/ton; Northwest MTO profit increased by 475.86% to 43.60 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit decreased by 7.50% to - 881.57 yuan/ton. Among downstream products, MTBE profit increased by 115.81% to 205.80 yuan/ton [1]. b. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: Methanol's main contract MA2509 rose during the trading day, opening at 2280 yuan/ton, closing at 2310 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 670804 lots and an open interest of 679905 lots [1]. - **Foreign Information**: All methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country are operating stably with an 85% operating rate. The estimated loading volume in April is about 600,000 tons, a 103% increase from March, and imports are expected to continue rising in May. Only Bandar Abbas port is affected by the explosion, while Assalueh and Blk ports are normal [1]. c. Trading Strategy - Given the explosion at the Iranian port and the current domestic maintenance period, the report suggests short - term observation as the explosion may impact market sentiment but has limited immediate impact on imports [1].

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | | | | | 铅锌日评20250429：原料偏紧与需求不佳博弈，铅价区间整理；沪锌宽幅整理 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/29 | | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 近期趋势 | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | 元/吨 | 16,775.00 | -0.59% | | | 沪铅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 17,005.00 | 0.35% | | | | 沪铅基差 | 元/吨 | -230.00 | -160.00 | | | | 升贴水-上海 | 元/吨 | 25.00 | 25.00 | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 美元/吨 美元/吨 | -18.41 -69.70 | 2.78 0.60 | | | 价差 | | 元/吨 | -15.00 | -20.00 | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | 元/吨 | 45.00 | 40.00 | | 铅 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250429:需求阶段性放缓 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日慶 | | | 单位 | 4月28日 | 4月25日 | 变化值 (绝对值) | 变化值 (相对值) | | UR01 UR05 山东 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1742.00 1788.00 1790.00 | 1725.00 1766.00 1800.00 | 17.00 22.00 -10.00 | 0.99% 1.25% -0.56% 0.59% | | | | | 元/吨 | | | | | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1781.00 | 1757.00 | 24.00 | 1.37% | | 山西 | | | | 1700.00 | | 10.00 | | | | | | 元/吨 | | 1690.00 | | | | 河南 | 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1800.00 | 1800.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | ...