| | 首说 | 1.美国公布与欧盟关税协议的正式文件。美国正式下调对欧盟汽车关税至15%,自2025年8月1日起生效。（金十数据） | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【多空逻辑】 9月24日,沪線主力合约区间震荡,成交量为107755手（+54856）,特色量为8526手(+4733),伦保涨0.53%。观货市场成交 | | | | 一般。基差升水缩小。供给端,锲矿价格持平,上周级矿到浓量增加,港口库存照库;煤铁厂亏损幅度收窄,9月国内排产 | | | | 增加,印尼排产增加,镍铁去库;9月国内电解裂腓产增加,出口盈利扩大。需求瑞,三元群产减少;不锈钢厂排产增加; | | | 媒 | 合金与电镀需求稳定。库存来看,上期所减少,LNE增加,社会库存增加,保税区库存减少。综上,有色金属领铜出现反 | | | | 弹,铜存供应端批动,而铁基本面偏弱并有库存压力,预计银价反弹空间有限。 | | | | 【交易策略】逢高法空。 | | | | 【风险提示】美联储降息预期变化,印尼骚乱升级、菲律宾抗议活动升级 | | 投资集略 | | (观点评分:0) | | | | 【多空逻辑】 | | | | ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 2025/9/26 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 0.00% 16,950.00 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,090.00 0.15% 沪铅基差 元/吨 -140.00 -25.00 升贴水-上海 元/吨 - -10.00 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -36.80 3.28 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -79.80 -2.50 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -30.00 5.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 - -25.00 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 -10.00 -25.00 期货活跃合约成交量 手 46,256.00 6.76% 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 62,847.00 2.91% 成交持仓比 / 0.74 3.74% LME库存 吨 0.00% 219,550.00 沪铅仓单库存 吨 35,584.00 -6.75% LME3个月铅期货收盘价（电子盘） 美元/吨 2,009.00 0.32% 沪伦铅价比值 / 8.51 -0.18% SMM1#锌锭平均价格 元/吨 ...

| 尿素早评20250926:供给压力继续提升 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 单位 | | 9月25日 | 9月24日 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 元/吨 (收盘价) | | 1674.00 | 1673.00 | 1.00 | 0.06% | | UR05 元/吨 民素期货价格 | | 1727.00 | 1724.00 | 3.00 | 0.17% | | UR09 元/吨 | | 1747.00 | 1745.00 | 2.00 | 0.11% | | 山东 元/吨 | | 1610.00 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 山西 元/吨 | 期现价格 | 1490.00 | 1490.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 河南 国内现货价格 | | 1610.00 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | (小顆粒) 河北 元/吨 | | 1650.00 | 1650.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View - No information provided in the document. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Changes - The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan on 2025/9/25 was $608.50 per ton, up 0.41% from the previous value [1]. - The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia on 2025/9/24 was $841.00 per ton, down 0.59% from the previous value [1]. - The ex - factory price of cycloethane in East China remained unchanged at 6300 yuan per ton [1]. - The spot price of methanol MA on 2025/9/25 was 2255 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - The tax - included pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia on 2025/9/25 was 290 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - The closing price of DCE EG主力合约 on 2025/9/25 was 4246 yuan per ton, up 0.28% [1]. - The settlement price of DCE EG主力合约 on 2025/9/25 was 4249 yuan per ton, up 0.52% [1]. - The closing price of DCE EG near - month contract on 2025/9/25 was 4175 yuan per ton, up 0.87% [1]. - The settlement price of DCE EG near - month contract on 2025/9/25 was 4175 yuan per ton, up 0.87% [1]. - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China on 2025/9/25 was 4300 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - The CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol (MEG) inner - market on 2025/9/25 was 4305 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - The near - far month price difference on 2025/9/25 was 74 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan from the previous value [1]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on 2025/9/25 was 8475 yuan per ton, down 0.59% [1]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester POY on 2025/9/25 was 6850 yuan per ton, down 0.72% [1]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on 2025/9/25 was 665 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [1]. - The basis on 2025/9/25 was 59 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan from the previous value [1]. - The CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on 2025/9/25 was 5790 yuan per ton, up 0.70% [1]. Operating Conditions - The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol on 2025/9/25 was 62.6%, unchanged [1]. - The operating rate of ethylene glycol (petroleum - based) on 2025/9/25 was 65.72%, unchanged [1]. - The operating rate of ethylene glycol (coal - based) on 2025/9/25 was 58.14%, unchanged [1]. - The load rate of polyester factories in the PTA industrial chain on 2025/9/25 was 87.81%, up 0.08% [1]. - The load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the PTA industrial chain on 2025/9/25 was 69.19%, up 1.64% [1]. Gross Margin - The after - tax gross margin of MTO MEG on 2025/9/25 was 1519.03 yuan per ton, down 4.66 yuan from the previous value [1]. - The after - tax gross margin of the coal - based synthesis gas method device on 2025/9/25 was 293.81 yuan per ton, up 6.64 yuan from the previous value [1]. External Market - The external market price of naphtha - based ethylene glycol on 2025/9/24 was $130.86 per ton, up $10.40 from the previous value [1]. - The external market price of ethylene - based ethylene glycol on 2025/9/24 was $139.65 per ton, down $3.25 from the previous value [1].

美联储降息预期次数减少使贵金属价格承压 贵金属周报-黄金和白银 2025年9月25日 研究所 王文虎 从业资格证号：F03087656 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0019472 联系方式：021-51801878 黄金和白银 1、美联储主席鲍威尔表示利率仍具限制性，未来降息路径需平衡就业和通胀，叠加美国9月SPGI制造和 服务业PMI均大于50，8月新屋销售为80万套远高于预期和前值，使市场预期美联储26年降息由3次减至2次。 2、欧元区与德法9月制造业PMI为49.5/48.5/48.1均低于预期和前值，消费端通胀可控和经济表现趋弱 3、英国9月SPGI制造(服务)业PMI为46.2(51.9)低(低)于预期和前值，但因消费端通胀CPI仍处高位，使 英国央行2025年底前或最多降息1次。 4、日本央行表示若经济和通胀按照预期运行，则可能继续加息，但国内政治不稳定增添不确定性。 投资策略：美联储未来降息预期次数减少，短期或使贵金属价格有所调整；但是考虑到全球多国财政赤 字扩张预期，俄乌和巴以冲突等地缘政治风险难解，全球多国央行持续购买黄金，中长期或支撑贵金属价格； 建议投资者前期部分高成本多单逢高止盈，并等待价 ...

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | 贵金属日评20250925:美联储26年降息次数减少施压贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-18 | 2025-09-24 | 收盘价 | 860. 00 | 855. 44 | 824. 10 | 4. 56 | 35. 90 | | | | | 成交量 | 285621.00 | 258495.00 | 27, 126. 00 | 192704.00 | 92. 917.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 3, 211. 00 | 271554.00 | 87731.00 | 274765.00 | 187, 034. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 60543.00 | 59013.00 | 564 ...

| 甲醇日评20250925:关注低多机会 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变化值 | 变化值 | 指标 | 2025/9/23 | 单位 | 2025/9/24 | (絶対值) | (相对值) | | | MA01 | 2351.00 | 2343.00 | 8.00 | 元/吨 | 0.34% | | | | | 元/吨 | MA05 | 2379.00 | 0.17% | 2375.00 | 4.00 | 甲醇期货价格 | (收盘价) | | | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2342.00 | 2337.00 | 5.00 | 0.21% | | | | | 2255.00 | 2235.00 | 20.00 | 0.89% | 太仓 | 元/呼 | | | | | 元/吨 | 山东 | 2340.00 | 2360.00 | -20.00 | -0.85% | | | | | 元/吨 | 广东 | 2260.00 | 2255.00 | 5.00 | 0.22% | 期现价格 | 甲醇 ...

沪铜日评20250925: 海外铜矿生产扰动推升铜价 | 变量名称 | | 2025-09-24 | 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-16 较昨日变动 | | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 79960 | 79920 | 80880 | 40. 00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 51727 | 66189 | 88548 | -11. 472.00 | | | | 持分量(手) | 172444 | 173294 | 165216 | -850.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 27419 | 27727 | 33692 | -308.00 | | | | 沪铜基差 | 85 | 90 | 240 | -5.00 | | | | SMM 1#电解铜一半均价 | 80045 | 80010 | 81120 | 35.00 | | | | SMM + 水铜开贴水 -- 切价 | 15 | 20 | 50 | -5.00 | | | | SMM升水铜开贴水-半均价 | 95 | 100 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is in high - level consolidation. The supply side has potential disturbances, and the short - term silicon price may maintain high - level consolidation, but there is a risk of a subsequent decline. For polysilicon, the price is also in high - level consolidation, and it is difficult for the spot price to rise further in the short term due to high downstream raw material inventories [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Data**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.06% to 9,020 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production, and the start - up rate in the southwest region has steadily increased. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, some silicon material plants have复产 plans, organic silicon supply has tightened and then recovered, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt interval operation and continue to hold out - of - the - money put options [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Data**: N - type dense material fell 0.29% to 51 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material fell 0.28% to 52.5 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material fell 0.30% to 50 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 49.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.23% to 51,380 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises are still reducing production, and some may have new capacity put into operation, with a slight increase in expected output. On the demand side, trading volume has increased significantly, inventory has decreased, but terminal demand pressure is large, and component price increases face resistance [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the supply - side reform policy is implemented, try to go long on dips with a light position [1]. Industry News - On the evening of September 24, Xinjiang Dongfang Hope New Energy Co., Ltd. started the annual routine maintenance of its first - phase polysilicon production line, and its third - phase project is ready for shutdown and maintenance. This is expected to have a positive impact on product quality and production stability, and will not have a major impact on overall supply [1]. - On September 23, the winning bid results of the first - batch photovoltaic module procurement framework (third tender) of a technology company from 2025 - 2026 were announced, with winning bid prices ranging from 0.71 - 0.76 yuan/W [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Lead**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots and the closing price of the main lead futures contract decreased slightly. The supply of lead is temporarily tightened, with no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, rising processing fees, and reduced production in the secondary lead sector. Demand from the terminal market is weak, and it is expected that the lead price will remain in high - level consolidation in the short term, with limited upside potential [1]. - **Zinc**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased slightly, while the closing price of the main zinc futures contract increased slightly. The supply of zinc is increasing, with sufficient raw material reserves in smelters and improved production enthusiasm. Demand has slightly improved but was affected by typhoon weather. Although the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, the low LME zinc inventory and the expected interest rate cut support the zinc price, and the downside space of Shanghai zinc is expected to be limited in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Lead** - **Price and Market Indicators**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,950 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the closing price of the main futures contract was 17,065 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 11.13% to 43,329 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.49% to 61,071 lots; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,002.50 dollars/ton, up 0.18% [1]. - **Supply**: Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some primary lead smelters have maintenance plans, and the start - up rate fluctuates slightly. In the secondary lead sector, due to raw material and loss factors, the start - up rate is less than 30%, and the supply is temporarily tightened [1]. - **Demand**: The terminal market shows no significant improvement, and dealers mainly digest inventory. Production enterprises produce according to sales. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of downstream enterprises [1]. - **News**: A small secondary lead smelter in South China has resumed production, mainly for long - term order delivery. On September 23, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 42.13 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 953 lots to 160,598 lots [1]. **Zinc** - **Price and Market Indicators**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 21,750 yuan/ton, down 0.28%; the closing price of the main futures contract was 21,860 yuan/ton, up 0.07%; the trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 12.45% to 109,733 lots, and the open interest increased by 1.07% to 141,867 lots; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,922.50 dollars/ton, up 1.14% [1]. - **Supply**: Smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The profit and production enthusiasm of smelters have improved, and the output shows an obvious increasing trend [1]. - **Demand**: Demand has slightly improved but was affected by typhoon weather, causing some enterprises in South China to shut down for about two days. The export window for zinc ingots may open as the Shanghai - London ratio deteriorates [1]. - **News**: The zinc output of Antamina Mine is expected to increase by 67% this year to 450,000 tons, offsetting a 12% decrease in copper output. On September 23, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 43.16 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 493 lots to 216,077 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Lead**: Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [1]. - **Zinc**: Try to go long at low prices with a light position [1].