Hong Yuan Qi Huo
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尿素早评:情绪好转,反转存疑-20251107
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 02:47
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current sentiment for urea has improved, but a reversal may not be imminent based on supply - demand dynamics. The urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the strong supply and weak demand situation. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after reaching a near - five - year low. If prices continue to fall, upstream production willingness may decline further. In the short term, there is insufficient upward momentum due to high supply and inventory pressure, and downstream buyers are cautious. Future potential drivers include the renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and new export quota issuance [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1644 yuan/ton on November 6, up 11 yuan or 0.67% from November 5 - UR05 closed at 1727 yuan/ton on November 6, up 12 yuan or 0.70% from November 5 - UR09 closed at 1750 yuan/ton on November 6, up 11 yuan or 0.63% from November 5 [1] Domestic Spot Prices - Spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on November 6 compared to November 5 [1] Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 12 yuan to - 147 yuan/ton - The 01 - 05 spread decreased by 1 yuan to - 83 yuan/ton [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively on November 6 compared to November 5 [1] Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, as well as the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu, remained unchanged on November 6 compared to November 5 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1630 yuan/ton, the highest was 1653 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1628 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1644 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1640 yuan/ton. The持仓量 was 275142 hands [1] Trading Strategy - Consider gradually taking profit on the sold put options of the 12 - contract [1]
沪锡日评:供需预期偏紧支撑锡价-20251107
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 02:23
| | 变量名称 | 2025-11-06 | 2025-11-05 | 2025-10-31 | 较昨日变动 | 近期定势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锡朗货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 283420 | 282090 | 016882 | 1, 330.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 46812 | 71165 | 72347 | -24, 353. 00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 303802 | 32622 | 36714 | -2. 237.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 5865 | 5959 | 5674 | -94.00 | | | 沪锡县若 | SMM 1#锡平均价 | 282800 | 281300 | 284400 | 1.500.00 | | | (现货与期货) | 沪锡县寿 | -620 | -790 | 490 | 170.00 | | | | 沪锡近月-沪锡连一 | -280 | -650 | -600 | 370. 00 | | | 价差(近月与远月) | 沪锡连一-沪锡连二 | -230 ...
铅锌日评:沪铅高位回落,沪锌或有回调-20251107
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 01:21
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For lead, due to high lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Meanwhile, refinery profits are good, and the import window is open, so the tight supply situation has improved. Lead prices are under significant upward pressure and may oscillate downward [1] - For zinc, considering the weak domestic end - market and the Fed's hawkish remarks on interest rate cuts, there is a certain suppression on the upside of zinc prices. The LME zinc back structure has weakened, and the overseas structural risk has decreased. Zinc prices lack continuous upward momentum. In the medium - term, the mining end will tighten in the fourth quarter, and TC is likely to fall, which will support zinc prices. One can wait for opportunities to go long after a short - term correction [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - On November 7, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,225 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous day; the closing price of the futures main contract was 17,430 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the previous day; the Shanghai lead basis was - 205 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 30.22 dollars/ton, down 5.82 dollars; the trading volume of the futures active contract was 44,172 lots, down 4.83%; the open interest was 62,498 lots, down 4.87%; the LME inventory was 205,500 tons; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 21,903 tons, up 0.92%; the LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,019.50 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.63, down 0.26% [1] Fundamental Information - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but difficult to fall, not substantially affecting refinery operations. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has small fluctuations. For secondary lead, refineries that had maintenance are gradually resuming, increasing supply. On the demand side, the terminal market has improved, and lead - acid battery enterprises are operating well, increasing demand [1] News - After the northern region enters the centralized heating period, air pollution pressure increases. Some recycling enterprises in North China have updated their logistics fleets to "National VI" standard vehicles, believing that transportation controls will not substantially affect the recycling and sales of waste lead - acid batteries. On November 5, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 30.22 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,565 lots to 149,952 lots [1] Investment Strategy - Hold previous short positions [1] Zinc Price and Market Data - On November 7, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,430 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of the futures main contract was 22,675 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day; the Shanghai zinc basis was - 245 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the Shanghai zinc ingot premium was - 55 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the Tianjin zinc ingot premium was - 95 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Guangdong zinc ingot premium was - 95 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 98.23 dollars/ton, down 40.55 dollars; the trading volume of the futures active contract was 100,028 lots, down 0.80%; the open interest was 113,005 lots, up 0.47%; the LME inventory was 34,100 tons; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 68,022 tons, down 0.59%; the LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 3,054.50 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.42, up 0.11% [1] Fundamental Information - Refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Last week, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased to 2,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc ore processing fee index decreased to 102.54 dollars/dry ton. Affected by the low internal - external price ratio, domestic mines have an advantage, and refineries mainly purchase domestic ores. In October, the domestic TC may still decline. On the supply side, refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the monthly output is expected to be around 600,000 tons. On the demand side, there is no significant improvement, but with the continuous deterioration of the Shanghai - London ratio, the zinc ingot export window is expected to open [1] News - Gold Resource disclosed its Q3 2025 output, with a zinc ore metal output of 784 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55%. The Q3 output was affected by the shortage of key mining equipment supply and the lack of production faces. New production faces were put into use at the end of Q3. On November 5, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 98.23 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,503 lots to 228,618 lots [1] Investment Strategy - Wait for opportunities to go long after a short - term correction [1]
工业硅、多晶硅日评:上方承压-20251107
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 01:04
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [1] - Due to supply - side disturbances, the polysilicon market has seen an upward oscillation. However, considering the limited willingness of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory, there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which may lead to a market decline. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main futures contract rose 0.50% to 9,065 yuan/ton; the basis was 235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In October, the southwest production area entered the high - cost dry season, with some silicon enterprises shutting down furnaces. The overall industrial silicon production in November is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. The downstream demand is weak, with low inventory - building willingness. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt interval trading [1] Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51 yuan/kg; the price of N - type re - feed material remained unchanged at 52.2 yuan/kg. The closing price of the main futures contract rose 0.07% to 53,395 yuan/ton; the basis was - 2,395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side may see a slight increase in production in October and a decline in November. The market trading is light, and downstream enterprises resist high - priced resources. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, consider lightly testing long positions on dips [1] Other Information - On October 28, the step - up substation project of the 2GW photovoltaic power station in Saudi Arabia, jointly constructed by China Energy Engineering Corporation's international engineering company, Guangdong Power Engineering Corporation, and Northwest Engineering Corporation, officially started. [1] - As of November 6, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week. [1]
甲醇日评:低估值,弱驱动-20251106
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 12:39
Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The short - term outlook for methanol is low - level oscillation. Methanol's absolute price and relative valuation are already relatively low, so short - selling based on valuation is not recommended. The short - term upward drive is limited due to higher expected imports from Iran and high MTO enterprise raw material inventory, resulting in insufficient downstream restocking power. Selling out - of - the - money put options is considered appropriate, taking into account coal cost support in winter, potential gas restrictions for inland gas - to - methanol production, and the recent increase in option volatility [1] Summary by Related Catalog 1. Price and Basis - **Futures Prices**: MA01 in Shandong closed at 2141 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 1.23% from the previous day; MA05 was at 2236 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.49%; MA09 was at 2239 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.09% [1] - **Spot Prices**: Factory prices in Shandong were 2107.50 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan or 0.36%; prices in Shaanxi were 1945 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or - 1.27%; in Sichuan and Chongqing, it was 2160 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.23%; in Hubei, it remained unchanged at 2180 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 1965 yuan/ton, up 12.50 yuan or 0.64% [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 63.50 yuan/ton, down 28.50 yuan or 1.29% [1] 2. Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of Yulin Q6000 coal was 660 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 2.33%; Ordos Q5500 was 587.50 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan [1] - **Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profit was 128.10 yuan/ton, down 42.60 yuan or - 24.96%; Northwest MTO profit was 38.40 yuan/ton, up 40.20 yuan or 2233.33%; East China MTO profit was - 503.57 yuan/ton, down 33.50 yuan or - 7.13%; acetic acid profit was 397.17 yuan/ton, down 21.22 yuan or - 5.07%; MTBE profit was 323.84 yuan/ton, up 11.28 yuan or 3.61%; formaldehyde profit was - 250.80 yuan/ton, up 14.40 yuan or 5.43% [1] 3. Market Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 rebounded after a decline, opening at 2110 yuan/ton and closing at 2141 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 1,405,704 lots, and open interest was 1,372,748 lots, with increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - **Foreign**: A 2.3 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is under maintenance, and the overall operating load of methanol plants in the country is 74.45%. As of November 2nd, about 80,000 tons of methanol were shipped from the country in November [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]
镍与不锈钢日评:成本支撑较弱,不锈钢空单持有-20251106
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 12:33
Group 1: Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: Entertainment and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20251106: Weak Cost Support, Hold Short Positions in Stainless Steel [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2: Core Views - Nickel: On November 5, the main nickel contract fluctuated weakly. The trading volume was 123,448 lots (+577), and the open interest was 115,164 lots (-3,296). LME nickel fell 0.40%. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium decreased. The supply side showed that nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports increased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel pig iron plants' losses deepened, and production decreased in November, while Indonesian production increased. Nickel pig iron inventories tightened. In November, domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary production increased, stainless steel plant production decreased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. In terms of inventory, SHFE inventory increased, LME inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded area inventory decreased. Overall, the nickel fundamentals were weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation was at a low level, and nickel prices were expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. - Stainless Steel: On November 5, the main stainless steel contract fluctuated downward. The trading volume was 90,380 lots (-21,042), and the open interest was 74,412 lots (-1,663). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium expanded. In terms of inventory, SHFE inventory remained flat, and last week's 300-series social inventory was 613,600 tons (+900). On the supply side, stainless steel production decreased in November, and 300-series production was basically flat. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. At the cost end, high-nickel pig iron prices fell, and high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat. Overall, the fundamentals were loose, cost support was weak, and stainless steel was expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. Group 3: Market Data Summary Nickel Market - **Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of nickel futures contracts on November 5 showed various changes compared to the previous day and two weeks ago. For example, the near-month contract closed at 119,720 yuan/ton (+330), the continuous first contract at 120,030 yuan/ton (+330), etc. [2] - **Spot Market**: The average prices of various nickel products such as SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, and imported nickel also changed. For instance, SMM 1 electrolytic nickel's average price was 120,950 yuan/ton (-850) [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE nickel inventory increased, LME nickel inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded area inventory decreased [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of stainless steel futures contracts on November 5 also changed. For example, the near-month contract closed at 12,550 yuan/ton (0), the continuous first contract at 12,535 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average prices of different types of stainless steel products such as 304/2B coils and 316L/2B coils decreased. For example, 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price was 17,950 yuan/ton (-500) [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE stainless steel inventory remained flat, and last week's 300-series social inventory was 613,600 tons (+900) [2]. Group 4: Industry News - EU Investigation: The European Commission announced an in - depth investigation into MMG's acquisition of Anglo American's Brazilian nickel business. The deal, worth about $500 million, involves two nickel - iron mines and two Brazilian construction projects. The investigation aims to address concerns about potential impacts on the EU stainless steel industry's competitiveness and raw material prices. The deadline for the adjustment phase is March 20, 2026 [2]. - Huayou Cobalt: Huayou Cobalt stated that its precursor business can achieve full self - supply of nickel raw materials. The Indonesian Pomalaa project is expected to be completed and put into production next year. The company will focus on upstream resource development and overseas material capacity layout to enhance self - supply and competitiveness [2]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Nickel: The trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - Stainless Steel: It is recommended to hold short positions. If the current price cannot effectively break through the support level, take profit and wait and see [2].
宏源期货期权日报-20251106
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 05:43
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market shows fluctuations, with various products such as polyester, alcohol, and related chemical products experiencing price changes and trading volume adjustments. The supply - demand relationship is complex, affected by factors like production, inventory, and market sentiment [1][2] Summary by Related Information Price and Quantity Information - There are multiple price data for different products including polyester, alcohol, etc., with values like - 1466.31, 6000.00, 2080.00, etc., and percentage changes such as (10.76)%, (10.00)%, etc. [1] - The trading volume and price of products like ethylene glycol are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment, with prices ranging from 466 - 472 dollars per ton in some periods [2] Market Conditions - Recently, the trading of polyester yarn and alcohol has been affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship and market sentiment. The market is in a state of adjustment, with some products showing price increases and decreases [2] Investment and Business - Investment and business operations in the industry are influenced by factors such as market supply - demand, policy, and resource allocation. Enterprises need to make decisions based on comprehensive considerations of various factors [2]
宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20251106
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 05:43
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate within a narrow range (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On November 5, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $59.60 per barrel, down 1.59% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $63.52 per barrel, down 1.43% [1] - **Naphtha**: The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan on November 5, 2025, was $577.50 per ton, up 0.17% [1] - **PX**: The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port on November 5, 2025, was $816.00 per ton, up 0.18%; the domestic spot price was 6504.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - **PTA**: The CCFEI price index of PTA inner - market on November 5, 2025, was 4510.00 yuan per ton, down 0.33%; the outer - market was $610.00 per ton (November 4), down 0.49% [1] - **PR**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market on November 5, 2025, was 5690.00 yuan per ton, down 0.44%; in the South China market, it was 5730.00 yuan per ton, down 0.52% [1] - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, FDY, short - fiber, chip, and bottle - grade chip showed little change or a slight decline on November 5, 2025 [2] Spread Information - **PXN Spread**: On November 5, 2025, it was $238.50 per ton, up 0.21% [1] - **PX - MX Spread**: On November 5, 2025, it was $129.00 per ton, up 0.78% [1] - **Near - far Month Spread of PTA**: On November 5, 2025, it was - 36.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan [1] - **Basis**: The basis of PTA was - 90.00 yuan per ton on November 5, 2025, a decrease of 11.00 yuan; the basis of PX was - 146.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan; the basis of PR in the East China market was 28.00 yuan per ton, a decrease of 21.00 yuan; in the South China market, it was 68.00 yuan per ton, a decrease of 26.00 yuan [1] Operating Rate Information - On November 5, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 77.84%, down 1.82%; the polyester factory load rate was 89.56%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 75.63%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.28%, unchanged [1] Production and Sales Rate Information - On November 5, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 52.59%, up 4.44%; the production and sales rate of polyester short - fiber was 38.35%, down 4.26%; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 46.28%, down 22.17% [1] Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton (design capacity) PTA device of Dushan Energy's No. 4 started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the old one will be shut down [2] Important News and Logic - **PX**: With the cooling of the overall risk appetite in the financial market, oil prices fluctuated and closed down. The domestic PX device supply was stable, and the demand - side PTA had both maintenance and restart. Some domestic PX plants had reformer maintenance, but the market supply remained stable with the supplement of toluene and xylene. Overseas devices ran smoothly. A 700,000 - ton device in the Northeast was expanded to 1 million tons and was increasing production [2] - **PTA**: The market focus returned to the fundamentals. PTA spot supply was sufficient. The crude oil market fluctuated narrowly, and downstream demand was stable. A 2.7 - million - ton PTA device in East China started trial operation, which had limited impact on the market. The supply - side production reduction expectation failed, and downstream demand was generally weak [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5670 - 5790 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated narrowly. The supply - side offers mostly decreased, and downstream purchasing willingness was low [2] Trading Strategy - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate within a narrow range [2]
贵金属日评:美国就业表现企稳或使贵金属价格承压-20251106
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 05:29
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The better - than - expected US employment data in October and the potential decrease in the Fed's December interest - rate cut probability, along with the reduction of the global major countries' debt due to a one - year Sino - US economic and trade agreement, may put short - term pressure on precious metal prices. However, geopolitical risks in regions like Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and US - Venezuela, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks globally will support precious metal prices in the long - term [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Information Market Data Summary - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 909.53 yuan/gram, with a change of 2.25 yuan compared to the previous day and - 6.15 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 59,552.00, and the open interest was 254,730.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 11,276.00 yuan/kg, with a change of 38.00 yuan compared to the previous day and 23.00 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 805,726.00, and the open interest was 244,274.00 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,990.40 dollars/ounce, with a change of 38.00 dollars compared to the previous day and 23.00 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 171,785.00, and the open interest was 321,089.00 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 0.72 dollars/ounce, with a change of 47.86 dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was - 13,235.00, and the open interest was 102,717.00 [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,968.20 dollars/ounce, with a change of 19.70 dollars compared to the previous day and 17.10 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 47.76 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.17 dollars compared to the previous day and - 0.15 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. Important Information - The US government has been shut down for 36 days, the longest in history. Trump called for an end to the "filibuster" rule to restart the government. - The US "small non - farm" ADP added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding expectations. The US ISM Services PMI in October rebounded above expectations, reaching an eight - month high, and the price - paid index hit a three - year high [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions cautiously. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,580 - 3,860 and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 830 - 860 and the resistance level around 950 - 1,000. For London silver, focus on the support level around 39 - 42 and the resistance level around 50 - 55. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,400 - 10,000 and the resistance level around 11,600 - 12,400 [1].
宏源期货日刊-20251106
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 03:21
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - Naphtha CFR Japan price on 2025/11/5 was $577.50 per ton, up 0.17% from the previous value [1] - Ethylene Northeast Asia price on 2025/11/4 was $741.00 per ton, with no change [1] - Ethylene Oxide average price in East China on 2025/11/5 was 6000 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - Methanol MA spot price on 2025/11/5 was 2080 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - Lignite (3500) pit - mouth price in Inner Mongolia on 2025/11/5 was 290 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - DCE EG主力合约收盘价 on 2025/11/5 was 3914 yuan per ton, up 0.33% [1] - DCE EG主力合约结算价 on 2025/11/5 was 3902 yuan per ton, down 0.71% [1] - DCE EG近月合约收盘价 on 2025/11/5 was 3865 yuan per ton, up 0.13% [1] - DCE EG近月合约结算价 on 2025/11/5 was 3865 yuan per ton, down 3.81% [1] - MEG market price in East China on 2025/11/5 was 4000 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - CCFEI MEG price index on 2025/11/5 was 3985 yuan per ton, up 0.25% [1] - Near - far month price difference on 2025/11/5 was 37 yuan per ton, down from 88 yuan per ton [1] - Basis on 2025/11/5 was 71 yuan per ton, down 3 yuan [1] Operating Conditions - MEG comprehensive operating rate on 2025/11/5 was 63.74%, with no change [1] - MEG (petroleum - based) operating rate on 2025/11/5 was 66.51%, with no change [1] - MEG (coal - based) operating rate on 2025/11/5 was 59.57%, with no change [1] - PTA industrial chain polyester factory load rate on 2025/11/5 was 89.56%, with no change [1] - PTA industrial chain Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms load rate on 2025/11/5 was 82.28%, with no change [1] Cash Flow - Naphtha - based MEG cash flow on 2025/11/4 was -$146.97 per ton, down $10.76 [1] - Ethylene - based MEG cash flow on 2025/11/4 was $112.65 per ton, up $10.00 [1] - MTO - based MEG after - tax gross profit on 2025/11/5 was 1486.22 yuan per ton, up 19.91 yuan [1] - Coal - based MEG after - tax gross profit on 2025/11/5 was - 142.04 yuan per ton, down 39.83 yuan [1] Polyester Price Index - CCFEI polyester DTY price index on 2025/11/5 was 8500 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - CCFEI polyester POY price index on 2025/11/5 was 6825 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - CCFEI polyester staple fiber price index on 2025/11/5 was 6345 yuan per ton, down 0.08% [1] - CCFEI bottle - grade chip price index on 2025/11/5 was 5690 yuan per ton, down 0.44% [1]