Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas copper mine production disruptions lead to an expectation of tight supply and demand, but the Fed's hawkish future interest - rate cut path and high copper prices suppressing downstream purchasing willingness may cause the Shanghai copper price to remain volatile [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Data 3.1 Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract - Closing price on 2025 - 09 - 26 was 82710, down 240 from the previous value; trading volume was 174625, with a decrease of 160268 compared to the previous value; open interest was 23853, down 9473; inventory was 27662 tons, a decrease of 1105 tons; the basis was - 205, an increase of 220 [2] 3.2 SMM Copper Prices and Premiums - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price on 2025 - 09 - 26 was 82505, down 20; SMM semi - water copper average discount was - 10, down 30; SMM premium copper average premium was 80, down 40; SMM mixed copper average discount was - 60, down 45; SMM Guixi copper average premium was 100, down 40; EQ copper average discount was - 130, down 80; SMM RMB Yangshan copper average premium was 412.49, an increase of 0.19; SMM Yangshan copper (warehouse receipt) average premium was 53, unchanged; SMM Yangshan copper (bill of lading) average premium was 58, unchanged [2] 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spreads - Shanghai copper near - month minus continuous - first was - 50, an increase of 50; continuous - first minus continuous - second was 20, down 30; continuous - second minus continuous - third was 0, an increase of 60 [2] 3.4 LME Copper Futures - LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on 2025 - 09 - 26 was 10205, down 70.5; LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 38.91, down 7.36; LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 50.2, down 10.22; the Shanghai - LME copper price ratio was 8.0813, an increase of 0.03 [2] 3.5 COMEX Copper - COMEX copper futures active contract closing price on 2025 - 09 - 26 was 4.8275, down 0.06; total inventory was 315206, an increase of 4055 [2] 4. Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall before mainly laying out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 78000 - 81000 and the resistance level around 83000 - 86000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 9800 - 10000 and the resistance level around 10500 - 10800 for LME copper; the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 for US copper [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of urea continues to increase, and the domestic supply pressure cannot be resolved by domestic demand alone, leading to a weak and volatile spot market [1]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain level of cost - effectiveness, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and a relatively cheap valuation. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices: the expected renovation of old - fashioned production facilities (old - fashioned facilities over 20 years old account for about 20% of the total, and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity), and the expected improvement in exports (especially in September - October under the easing of Sino - Indian relations). The space for further decline in urea prices is relatively limited [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, UR01 in Shandong decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.30%), in Shanxi it remained unchanged, UR05 decreased by 7 yuan/ton (-0.41%), and UR09 decreased by 7 yuan/ton (-0.40%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Henan, Hebei, and Northeast China, domestic small - particle urea spot prices remained unchanged. In Jiangsu, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.23%) [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 3 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The anthracite price in Shanxi remained unchanged. The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged. The melamine price in Jiangsu remained unchanged, while in Shandong it increased by 83 yuan/ton (1.65%) [1]. 2. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1676 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1683 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1666 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1669 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1673 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report Core View - On September 26, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. With both supply and demand strong, upstream inventory pressure is not significant, the expectation of supply contraction in lithium mines is weakening, downstream inventories have reached their peaks, and the peak demand may be approaching. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will oscillate at a low level. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [1] Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - On September 26, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - two, consecutive - three, and consecutive - one contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 72,680 yuan/ton, 72,820 yuan/ton, 72,820 yuan/ton, and 72,880 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a downward trend compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 481,020 hands (+138,301), and the open interest was 248,460 hands (-12,501) [1] Spot Market - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,400 yuan/ton, with a basis of 720 yuan/ton, rising from a discount. The prices of some lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene concentrate increased, while the prices of mica remained stable [1] Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased. Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased; in September, the production schedules of lithium cobaltate and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries was basically flat last week. Terminal demand: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down; 3C shipments were average; in September, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 40,329 tons (+20), and social inventory decreased. Inventories of smelters and other sectors decreased, while downstream inventory tightened [1] Company News - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. announced that its 40,000 - ton/year basic lithium salt integration project has entered the commissioning stage and produced qualified battery - grade lithium carbonate products. Anson Resources signed a battery - grade lithium carbonate purchase agreement with LG Energy Solution, and its stock price rose nearly 25%. Longpan Times, a joint - venture company of CATL and Longpan Technology, stopped production on September 25 due to the suspension of raw material supply from CATL's Yichun mine [1]

免责声明:宏深规货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的规货空营机构。已具备规货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料。本公 司时这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行规律投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。（风险提示：期市有风险 2 市需婆换人 研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 数据米源:SMM W 镍与不锈钢日评20250929:低位震荡 | 交易日期(日) | | | | | | | 2025-09-26 2025-09-25 2025-09-19 较昨日变化 近两周走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | VI | | | | | | | 期货近月合约 收盘价 121100.00 122680.00 121500.00 -1,580.00 1 期货连一合约 收盘价 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report expects PX, PTA, and PR to run strongly, with a view score of 1 for each [2] Core Viewpoints - International crude oil has risen to a seven - week high, and it is predicted that PX, PTA, and PR will run strongly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - On September 24, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $64.99 per barrel, up 2.49% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $69.31 per barrel, up 2.48% [1] - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $606 per ton, up 1.42%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $672 per ton, up 2.05% [1] - The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $812 per ton, up 0.95%; the closing price of CZCE TA main contract was 4,626 yuan per ton, up 1.54% [1] - The CCFEI price index of PTA inner - market was 4,520 yuan per ton, up 1.16%; the outer - market was $600 per ton, down 1.48% [1] - The closing price of CZCE PX main contract was 6,602 yuan per ton, up 1.10%; the closing price of CZCE PR main contract was 5,784 yuan per ton, up 1.15% [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester bottle - grade chips was 5,750 yuan per ton, up 0.70%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,725 yuan per ton, up 0.26% [2] Supply and Demand and Market Conditions - An 700,000 - ton PX plant in Northeast China has been under maintenance since September 18, expected to last about 45 days [2] - Geopolitical risks have increased, and overnight crude oil rebounded after a short adjustment. The cost - end oil market rebounded slightly, driving up PX cost momentum. However, there are still concerns about the domestic PX fundamentals, and the monthly spread is small [2] - The increase in PX supply due to short - process capacity increase and postponed maintenance is obvious, while the demand for PX has decreased more than expected due to the delay of new PTA plant commissioning and multiple PTA maintenance. The PX profit will remain low in the short term [2] - The cost support for PTA has recovered slightly. The typhoon has affected the operation of a PTA plant in Zhuhai, which is temporarily beneficial to the PTA market. But the end - of - month shipment pressure of production enterprises is large, and the polyester product sales are flat [2] - The polyester bottle - chip market has a warm - oscillating trend in terms of raw materials and futures. The supply - side quotation has risen, but the downstream terminal trading has weakened, and the trading atmosphere is light. Some bottle - chip plants have shut down briefly due to the typhoon, with limited impact on market supply [2] Production and Sales and Operating Rates - On September 24, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 85.57%, unchanged; the PTA plant load rate was 78.12%, down 1.26 percentage points; the polyester plant load rate was 87.73%, down 1.27 percentage points [1] - The sales rate of polyester filament was 80.65%, up 41.74 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 67.04%, up 18.96 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 143.48%, up 85.45 percentage points [1]

| | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250926：高位整理 | | --- | --- | | 2025/9/26 | 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 9,300.00 1.09% | | 工业硅期现价格 | 9,055.00 0.39% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 元/吨 245.00 65.00 | | N型多晶硅料 | 元/千克 51.05 0.10% | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 51,365.00 -0.03% | | 基差 | 元/吨 -315.00 65.00 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 9,300.00 1.09% | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 元/吨 9,350.00 1.08% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | 元/吨 9,250.00 1.09% | | 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 | 元/吨 9,350.00 1.08% | | | 元/吨 8,950.00 0.56% | | 不通氧553#（四川）平均价格 | ...

分析师：范智颖 从业资格号：F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022690 研究所 Tel：010-82292099 Email：fanzhiying@swhysc.com 相关研究 [原ta油ble季_r度ep报ort告date] 2025 年 9 月 宏观预期改善或提供反弹动力 风险提示：地缘局势变动，关税政策调整，OPEC+政策调整。 | 一、 | 行情回顾 4 | | --- | --- | | 1、 | 行情回顾：先跌后涨再横盘 4 | | 2、 | 观点回顾 5 | | 二、 | 宏观分析：美国宏观经济存在改善预期 6 | | 1、 | 美联储鸽派托底经济预期 6 | | 2、 | 中长期预期相对较好 8 | | 3、 | 管理基金净多持仓偏低 8 | | | 三、基本面分析：过剩预期或有调整 10 | | 1、 | 供给端：OPEC+实际增产低于计划，美页岩油增产意愿有限 10 | | 2、 | 需求端：需求预期并不差 11 | | 3、 | 库存：美国油品库存压力不大，中国补储缓解过剩压力 14 | | 4、 | 风险：可能的风险在地缘局势变动 15 | | | 四、总结与展望 17 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Overseas copper mine production disruptions lead to a tight supply expectation, but the Fed's hawkish stance on future interest rate cuts may keep copper prices oscillating [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - On September 25, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 82,710, with a trading volume of 334,893 lots, a position of 238,523 lots, and an inventory of 27,662 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 82,505, with a change of -290 compared to the previous day [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on September 25, 2025, was 10,275.5, and the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was -31.55 [2] - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on September 25, 2025, was 4.7885, and the total inventory was 321,056 [2] Important Information - At the Antaike Copper Industry Week conference held in Xiongan, Beijing on September 25, 2025, Chen Quanxun, the former president of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association, put forward five suggestions for the copper industry, emphasizing that the anti - involution of the copper industry should refer to the experience of the aluminum industry and control smelting capacity [2] Long - Short Logic - Supply side: The large - scale wet ore spill at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia on September 8 may reduce the 2026 copper and gold production by about 35% compared to pre - accident estimates. Multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have production disruptions, leading to a negative and rising China copper concentrate import index, and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Tight scrap copper supply - demand expectations lead to a decline in domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters from September to October increases month - on - month [2] - Demand side: High copper prices lead downstream to mainly make rigid purchases [2] - Inventory side: China's electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared to last week, LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared to last week, and COMEX copper inventory increased compared to last week [2] Trading Strategy - Hold yesterday's long positions cautiously, or wait for the price to fall before laying out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 78,000 - 81,000 and the resistance level around 83,000 - 86,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,800 - 10,000 and the resistance level around 10,500 - 10,800 for London copper, and the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 for US copper [2]

| 贵金属日评20250926:美联储未来降息预期转鹰施压贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-09-25 | 2025-09-24 | 2025-09-19 | 收盘价 | 854. 72 | -5. 28 | 830. 56 | 24. 16 | 860. 00 | | | | | 成交量 | 270576.00 | 285621.00 | 210003.00 | 60. 573. 00 | -15, 045. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 240177.00 | 26, 452. 00 | 266629.00 | 274765.00 | -8.136.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 8, 205.00 | 65634.00 | 60543.00 | 57429.00 | 5,091.00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text Core View of the Report - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner in the short - term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 25, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $64.98 per barrel, down 0.02% from the previous value; Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $69.42 per barrel, up 0.16%. Naphtha spot price (CFR Japan) was $608.50 per ton, up 0.41%. The spot price of isomeric xylene (FOB South Korea) was $676.00 per ton, up 0.52%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Main Port was $817.00 per ton, up 0.57% [1] - **PTA**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,678 yuan per ton, up 1.12%; the settlement price was 4,658 yuan per ton, up 1.30%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,640 yuan per ton, up 1.18%; the settlement price was 4,630 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,597 yuan per ton, up 0.81%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,585 yuan per ton, up 1.44%; the external price index was $609.00 per ton, up 1.50% [1] - **PX**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,674 yuan per ton, up 1.09%; the settlement price was 6,640 yuan per ton, up 1.10%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,678 yuan per ton, up 0.69%; the settlement price was 6,470 yuan per ton, down 2.03%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged at 6,382 yuan per ton. The spot price (CFR China Taiwan) was $813.00 per ton, up 1.12%; the spot price (FOB South Korea) was $796.00 per ton, up 1.02%. The PXN spread was $208.50 per ton, up 1.05%; the PX - MX spread was $141.00 per ton, up 0.84% [1] - **PR**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,840 yuan per ton, up 0.97%; the settlement price was 5,816 yuan per ton, up 1.04%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5,874 yuan per ton, up 1.31%; the settlement price was 5,856 yuan per ton, up 1.00%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70%; in the South China market, it was 5,870 yuan per ton, up 0.69% [1] - **Downstream**: On September 25, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,475 yuan per ton, down 0.59%; the price index of polyester POY was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; the price index of polyester FDY68D was 6,950 yuan per ton, down 1.42%; the price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 1.44%; the price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,425 yuan per ton, up 0.23%; the price index of polyester chips was 5,755 yuan per ton, up 0.52%; the price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70% [2] Device Information - A 7 - million - ton PX plant in the Northeast has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2] Market Analysis - **PX**: Geopolitical and sanctions around Russia are the main factors driving international crude oil prices. The expected pressure of supply glut has not been reflected in the market, and oil prices were stagnant during the Asian session. The CFR China price of PX on September 25 was $817 per ton, and international oil prices continued to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories. The domestic PX operating load was stable, and the demand side was waiting for the implementation of the expected changes in PTA plants. The cost support led to a slight price recovery. The PX2511 contract closed at 6,674 yuan per ton (up 1.61%), with a trading volume of 185,500 lots. The increase in PX supply due to the increase in short - process production at home and abroad and the postponement of some plant maintenance was obvious, while the demand for PX decreased more than expected due to the delay of new PTA plant commissioning and multiple PTA plant maintenance. The supply - demand situation did not change significantly, and the PX profit would remain low in the short term [2] - **PTA**: The cost support slightly recovered, and the TA2601 contract closed at 4,678 yuan per ton (up 1.74%), with a trading volume of 701,000 lots. The sales of polyester filament on Wednesday evening were around 149% and 175% on Thursday, which was positive for the PTA market. The cost support was strengthened, and there was a strong expectation of PTA plant maintenance due to low processing fees. The leading polyester factories adjusted the production rhythm to stabilize market supply, but the production enterprises faced great pressure to sell at the end of the month. The new orders of weaving enterprises improved, and the shipment speed of grey cloth continued to improve, but the overall inventory pressure in the grey cloth market still existed, leading to the lack of confidence of downstream enterprises in the future market. As the National Day holiday approached, the sentiment in the downstream market was clearly divided, and some enterprises expected the market to improve after the holiday [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan per ton, up 55 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The prices of PTA and bottle - chip futures rose, and the supply - side quotation of bottle chips mainly increased, but the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream terminals was not high, and the trading atmosphere was light. The PR2511 contract closed at 5,840 yuan per ton (up 1.46%), with a trading volume of 28,600 lots. The operating rate of the bottle - chip industry was expected to gradually recover, and the market supply of goods was relatively abundant. The purchasing intention of downstream terminals was not high, and the market trading atmosphere was light [2] Production and Sales and Operating Conditions - **Operating Conditions**: On September 25, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 85.57%, unchanged from the previous value; the load rate of PTA plants in the PTA industry chain was 78.12%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester plants was 87.81%, up 0.08 percentage points; the load rate of bottle - chip plants was 69.37%, up 0.27 percentage points; the load rate of Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms was 69.19%, up 1.64 percentage points [1] - **Production and Sales**: On September 25, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 175.16%, up 94.51 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 88.58%, up 21.54 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 152.51%, up 9.03 percentage points [1]