黑色金属周报-钢材 产销双降 品种结构分化 2025年11月10日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 TEL:010-82292661 目录 1 2 产销双降 品种结构分化 上周国内钢材现货价格震荡偏弱，截至周五，华东上海螺纹3160元（-40）；上海热卷3260元 （-90）。 11月6日，五大品种钢材整体产量降18.55吨，五大品种库存厂库环比降8.09吨，社库降2.08 吨。表观需866.91万吨，环比降49.51万吨。截至11月7日，长流程现货端，华东螺纹长流程现金 含税成本3176元，点对点利润-16元左右，热卷长流程现金含税利润33.5元左右。电炉端，华东平 电电炉成本在3320元左右，谷电成本在3177左右，华东螺纹平电利润-220元左右，谷电利润-77元。 废钢端，截止11月6日，张家港废钢价格2170元/吨，环比回升10元/吨。数据显示，89家独立 电弧炉企业产能利用率34.1%，环比提升0.5个百分点；255家样本钢厂日耗51万吨，环比下降0.21 万吨；其中，132家长流程钢厂日耗24.3万吨/天，环比下降0.66万吨；短流程日耗17吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The weak employment performance in the US supports the prices of precious metals. The high number of job cuts in US challenger enterprises in October and the decrease in non - farm employment private data have increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. Additionally, factors such as geopolitical risks, expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, and continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world may support precious metal prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 917.51 yuan/g, with a change of 0.13 yuan compared to the previous day and - 2.56 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 37,088, and the position was 255,562 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 38 yuan/10g, the trading volume was 460,064, and the position was 4,303,142 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,984.80 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 183,645, and the position was 311,506. The inventory was 37,847,208.99 troy ounces [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,994.10 dollars/ounce [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 48.23 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 11,217, and the position was 102,295. The inventory was 483,133,331.10 troy ounces [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 48.70 dollars/ounce [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The US Treasury will auction 125 billion dollars in Treasury bonds this week, along with about 40 billion dollars in corporate bonds, posing a severe test to market liquidity. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has postponed the release of the CPI report and suspended offline data collection [1]. 3.3 Long - Short Logic - The high number of job cuts in US challenger enterprises in October and the decrease in non - farm employment private data have increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. The Fed provides liquidity to the inter - bank market through the Standing Repurchase Facility (SRF). Geopolitical risks in Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and US - Venezuela remain unresolved, and many central banks around the world are continuously buying gold, which may support precious metal prices [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - The strategy is to mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,580 - 3,860 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 830 - 860 yuan/g and the resistance level is around 950 - 1,000 yuan/g. For London silver, the support level is around 39 - 42 dollars/ounce and the resistance level is around 50 - 55 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 9,400 - 10,000 yuan/kg and the resistance level is around 11,600 - 12,400 yuan/kg [1].

| 铅锌日评20251110：沪铅高位整理；沪锌或有回调 | 指标 | 近期趋势 | 2025/11/10 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元/吨 | 17,250.00 | 0.15% | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | 沪铅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 17,420.00 | -0.06% | | 元/吨 | -170.00 | 35.00 | 沪铅基差 | 元/吨 | - - | 升贴水-上海 | | | | 美元/吨 | -10.74 | 4.22 | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | 美元/吨 | -80.20 | 4.90 | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 价差 | | 元/吨 | -60.00 | - | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 元/吨 | -25.00 | -5.00 | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | 铅 | | 元/吨 | 30.00 | 25.00 | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 | 手 | 27,206.00 | -38.41% | 期货活跃合约成交量 | | | 成 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The silicon market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with limited improvement in demand. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may exert some pressure on the upper limit of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [1] - Due to supply - side disturbances, the polysilicon futures market has oscillated upwards. Considering the limited willingness of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory, there is significant pressure for further price increases in the spot market, which may limit the upward space of the futures market and lead to a potential decline. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.71% to 9,220 yuan/ton. [1] - **Production Situation**: From October 31 to November 6, the weekly output of sample silicon enterprises in Sichuan was 4,750 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 41%. The operating rate of sample silicon enterprises in Yunnan was 33%, showing a significant decline from the previous week. In October, some silicon enterprises in the southwest region stopped production due to the high - cost dry season. It is expected that the industrial silicon output in November will drop below 400,000 tons. [1] - **Demand Situation**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, organic silicon enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced production or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low prices was limited. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: The silicon market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the industrial silicon market remains oversupplied. It is recommended to focus on the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is range operation. [1] Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg, the price of N - type re -投料 remained flat at 52.2 yuan/kg, the price of N - type mixed material remained flat at 50.5 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon remained flat at 50.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.34% to 53,215 yuan/ton. [1] - **Supply Situation**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, it is expected that the output in October will still increase slightly, and the output in November may decline. [1] - **Demand Situation**: The trading in the polysilicon market was relatively light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises were highly resistant to high - priced resources, and the market was waiting for industry policy guidance. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Due to supply - side disturbances, the polysilicon futures market has oscillated upwards. However, considering the limited willingness of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory, there is significant pressure for further price increases in the spot market. It is recommended that previous long positions pay attention to profit protection. Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, one can try to go long on dips with a light position. [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal Weekly - Coking Coal and Coke [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Bai Jing [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, the current supply recovery is slow due to factors such as underground issues and environmental protection, while downstream demand remains stable. With the successful third round of coke price increases and expectations of a fourth round, coking coal prices are strongly supported in the short - term, with an expected fluctuation range of 1200 - 1320 yuan/ton [7]. - For coke, both supply and demand have weakened recently. Although there is short - term support from coal supply constraints and cost factors, and the third round of price increases has been implemented with expectations of a fourth round, the narrowing profit of downstream steel mills may lead to price negotiations. Therefore, coke prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [46]. Summary by Sections Part 1: Coking Coal Price - As of October 23, the warehouse receipt price of Meng 5 raw coal was 1322 yuan/ton (-15), and that of Shanxi single coal was 1338 yuan/ton (+70). The warehouse receipt price of Canadian Lukin was 1302 yuan/ton (+98). The price of the coking coal main contract fluctuated narrowly, down 1.24% from the previous trading week, and the JM1 - 5 spread was -46.5 yuan/ton (+21.5) [5]. Fundamentals - Supply: In Shanxi, coal mines further reduced production this week, with a significant decline in production in the Lvliang area. Some state - owned large mines in the Liulin area also controlled production independently. The coking coal production of a large open - pit mine in Jiaokou stopped due to the expiration of the mining license. The开工 rate of 523 coking coal mines was 83.76%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points, and the daily average clean coal output was 73.83 tons, a decrease of 2.01 tons [6]. - Demand: The molten iron output continued to decline this period, and the profit of the steel products end was in a larger loss. The short - term trend may remain weak. After the successful implementation of the coke price increase, the raw material market sentiment was optimistic, and most mines had sufficient pre - sales orders [6]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of the 523 - caliber steel union was 189.54 tons, a decrease of 15.87 tons. The price of imported Mongolian coal decreased slightly, with the price of Meng 5 raw coal dropping to about 1150 - 1170 yuan/ton [6]. Part 2: Coke Price - As of November 7, the CCI Rizhao quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was reported at 1570 yuan/ton (-), the Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt was 1715 yuan/ton (+11), and the port dry - quenched coke warehouse receipt was 1815 yuan/ton (+55). The price of the coke main contract fluctuated, down 1.15% from the previous trading week, and the J1 - 5 spread was -129.5 yuan/ton (+10) [44]. Fundamentals - Supply: Recently, affected by factors such as losses, environmental protection, maintenance, and tight coal resources, coke production has continued to shrink. After the third - round price increase was implemented, coke enterprises became more active in shipping. The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 72.31%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points, and the daily average output of all - sample independent coking plants was 63.59 tons, a decrease of 1 ton. The daily average output of 247 steel mill coking plants was 46.09 tons, a decrease of 0.12 tons [45]. - Demand: The molten iron output continued to decline this period, and the daily coke consumption decreased. The daily average molten iron output was 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons [45]. - Inventory: The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 633.16 tons, a decrease of 6.23 tons (1%). The coke inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 58.3 tons, a decrease of 1.57 tons (2.6%). The coke inventory at ports was 202.11 tons, a decrease of 8.99 tons [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report expects PX, PTA, and PR to have a moderately strong and volatile trend [2]. Core Viewpoints - The prices of PX, PTA, and PR are expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. The PX market is in a tight - balance situation, with stable supply and limited demand - side drive. The PTA market is affected by cost and supply - side factors, and the supply pressure cannot be eliminated by short - term maintenance. The PR market follows cost trends, with sufficient supply and cautious downstream procurement [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream Prices**: On November 6, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased by 0.29% and 0.22% respectively. The spot price of naphtha decreased by 0.30%, while the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) increased by 0.65% [1]. - **PTA Prices**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price increased by 1.91%, and the spot price of domestic PTA increased by 0.75%. The CCFEI price indices of PTA both increased [1]. - **PX Prices**: The CZCE PX main - contract closing price increased by 2.56%, and the spot price of domestic PX remained unchanged. The PXN and PX - MX spreads increased by 4.93% and 4.28% respectively [1]. - **PR Prices**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price increased by 1.31%, and the market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East and South China markets increased by 0.70% and 0.35% respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The CCFEI price indices of most downstream products remained unchanged, except for the polyester bottle - chip and polyester slice price indices, which increased, and the polyester short - fiber price index decreased by 0.32% [2]. Operating Conditions - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain increased by 1.82%. The load rates of PTA factories decreased by 0.42%, while those of polyester factories and bottle - chip factories increased by 0.14% and 0.92% respectively. The load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [1]. - **Sales Rates**: The sales rates of polyester filament, polyester short - fiber, and polyester slice increased by 17.41%, 31.62%, and 96.76% respectively [1]. Device Information - A 1.1 - million - ton PTA device in South China is under maintenance, and the restart date is undetermined. A 1 - million - ton PTA device in Southwest China is planned to be maintained this weekend and may be shut down for 45 days [2]. Market Analysis - **PX**: The international crude oil market is volatile, and the domestic PX devices operate stably. Although some PX factories' reforming devices are under maintenance, the market supply remains stable. The PX benefit is expected to be volatile and stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance in the fourth quarter [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA price is pushed up by the cost of PX. Although there are many device maintenance plans, the supply is still sufficient. The domestic demand market is gradually weakening, but the foreign trade orders are increasing, and the short - term downstream demand is acceptable [2]. - **PR**: The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is moderately strong and volatile. The supply is sufficient, and the downstream procurement is cautious [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - On November 6, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The spot market remained weak, and the basis changed from premium to discount. With the current balance between supply and demand, the news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is uncertain. Lithium carbonate production remains high, and high prices increase downstream wait - and - see sentiment. If the weakening of demand is verified, there is still room for the price to decline. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate widely. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. Summary Based on Relevant Content Futures Market Data - **Prices**: The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts on November 6 were 81,840 yuan/ton, 83,400 yuan/ton, 83,400 yuan/ton, and 83,400 yuan/ton respectively, with varying increases compared to previous periods [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures on November 6 was 582,033 hands (+66,302), and the open interest was 471,983 hands (+18,723) [1]. - **Spreads**: The basis between SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price and the closing price of the active contract was - 3,400 yuan/ton on November 6, changing from premium to discount. The spreads between different contracts also showed certain changes [1]. Spot Market Data - **Lithium Ore and Lithium Compounds**: The price of spodumene concentrate decreased, while the price of lithium mica remained flat. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,400 yuan/ton (-100), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 78,200 yuan/ton (-100) on November 6 [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and power batteries increased last week. In November, the production plan of lithium cobalt oxide increased, while that of lithium manganate decreased. The production and sales growth rate of new energy vehicles in October slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries in November increased [1]. Inventory Data - The registered warehouse receipts were 26,420 tons (-410), and social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters, downstream, and others all decreased [1]. Industry News - **Chile's Lithium Exports**: In October, Chile's lithium export volume was 27,562 tons, of which the export volume of lithium carbonate was 24,769 tons. The export volume of lithium carbonate to China was 16,210 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% and a month - on - month increase of 40% [1]. - **Kodal Minerals' Project**: The first - phase project of the Bougouni lithium mine in southern Mali was officially launched on November 3. As of now, the cumulative output of lithium ore has exceeded 45,000 tons, with the target annual production capacity of the first phase being 125,000 tons [1]. - **Australia's Prairie Lithium Project**: Australia's Prairie Lithium has started the construction of the largest direct lithium extraction (DLE) plant in North America in Canada. The project has sufficient resources, with inferred and controlled resources equivalent to about 4 million tons of lithium carbonate [1].

| | | 尿素早评20251107: 情绪好转，反转存疑 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 変化值 单位 11月6日 11月5日 (絕对值) | | | | | 変化值 (相对值) | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1644.00 | 1633.00 | 11.00 | 0.67% | | 尿素期货价格 | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1727.00 | 1715.00 | 12.00 | 0.70% | | | (收盘价) | | | | | | | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1750.00 | 1739.00 | 11.00 | 0.63% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1580.00 | 1580.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1450.00 | 1450.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1570.00 | 1570.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weak employment performance in the US supports the prices of precious metals. The high number of corporate lay - offs in the US in October has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. Along with factors such as the Fed providing liquidity, geopolitical risks, and central banks' gold - buying, precious metal prices may be supported [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: - Shanghai Gold futures' closing price was 917.80 yuan/g, with a change of 5.54 yuan compared to the previous day and - 4.12 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 238,433.00, a decrease of 157,531.00 from the previous day. The inventory remained at 87,816.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3941.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of 43.10 dollars compared to the previous day and - 5.60 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 281,102.00, a decrease of 97,457.00 from the previous week [1]. - London gold spot price was 3968.20 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 20.20 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. - **Silver**: - Shanghai Silver futures' closing price was 11427.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a change of 151.00 yuan compared to the previous day and - 14.00 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 571,201.00, a decrease of 306,143.00 from the previous week [1]. - COMEX silver futures' closing price was 47.85 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 0.02 dollars compared to the previous day and 0.57 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 74,607.00, a decrease of 24,464.00 from the previous week [1]. - London silver spot price was 47.61 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.51 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. Important Information - The direction of the Fed's December rate cut is unclear. This year's voting members are hesitant due to the government shutdown, and next year's members are more concerned about inflation. The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 4%, and the expectation of a December rate cut is rising [1]. - The AI revolution has accelerated the lay - off wave. In October, the number of Challenger corporate lay - offs in the US increased by 175.3% year - on - year, reaching the highest level in the same period in twenty years. The private data provider Revelio Labs reported a decrease of 9100 in non - farm employment in October [1]. Investment Strategy - Temporarily stay on the sidelines. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3580 - 3860 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 830 - 860 and the resistance level around 950 - 1000. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 42 and the resistance level around 50 - 55; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9400 - 10000 and the resistance level around 11600 - 12400 [1].

Group 1: Price Information - North America CFR ethylene price on November 6, 2021, was $557.50 per ton, up 0.30% from the previous day [1] - East Asia CFR naphtha price on November 6, 2021, was $41.00 per barrel, unchanged from the previous day [1] - East China ex - factory price of ethylene oxide was 6000 yuan per ton on November 6, 2021, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Inner Mongolia含税褐煤 price was 290 yuan per ton on November 6, 2021, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Futures contract prices and settlement prices for various products on November 6, 2021, with different price changes [1] - East China market price of ethylene glycol was 3900 yuan per ton on November 6, 2021, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Near - far price difference and basis difference information for different products on November 6, 2021 [1] - Comprehensive price index of ethylene glycol was 63.74 on November 6, 2021, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Operating conditions of oil - based and coal - based ethylene glycol production on November 6, 2021 [1] - Industrial chain load rates of PTA plants and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms on November 6, 2021 [1] - External market prices of oil - based ethylene glycol in the US on November 5, 2021 [1] - After - tax gross profit of different production methods on November 6, 2021 [1] - Price indices of polyester products such as polyester fiber, polyester ester, and polyester short - fiber on November 6, 2021 [1] Group 2: Industry News - A 90,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol unit in Inner Mongolia is expected to start up and produce materials this month after initial maintenance [1]