| 碳酸锂日评20250925:低位震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) 2025-09-24 | | 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-17 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | 近月合约 收盘价 72680.00 | | 73420.00 | 73500.00 | -740.00 | | | 收盘价 72880.00 连一合约 | | 73660.00 | 73640.00 | -780.00 | | | 连二合约 收盘价 72860.00 | | 73580.00 | 73820.00 | -720.00 | | | 连三合约 收盘价 72860.00 | | 73580.00 | 73800.00 | -720.00 | | | 收盘价 72880.00 | | 73660.00 | 73640.00 | -780.00 | ~ | | 砖酸包期货 成交堂(手) 345221.00 活跃合约 | | 497857.00 | 343863.00 | -152.636.00 | | | (元/吨) 持仓堂(手 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract of urea futures. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the valuation being relatively cheap. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply - side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - aged production facilities (old facilities over 20 years account for about 20% and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity); on the demand - side, there is an expectation of improved exports, especially in September - October, given the easing relationship between China and India. Therefore, the space for further decline of urea prices is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Urea Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On September 24, UR01 closed at 1673 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.90% from September 23; UR05 closed at 1724 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.64%; UR09 closed at 1745 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.63% [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Shandong, it was 1610 yuan/ton with no change; in Shanxi, 1490 yuan/ton with no change; in Henan, it dropped 10 yuan to 1610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%; in Hebei, 1650 yuan/ton with no change; in Northeast China, 1660 yuan/ton with no change; in Jiangsu, 1620 yuan/ton with no change [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 114 yuan/ton on September 24, down 11 yuan from September 23. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 51 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [1]. 3.3 Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream Costs**: The price of anthracite coal in Henan was 1000 yuan/ton with no change, and in Shanxi, it was 880 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 2930 yuan/ton with no change, in Henan, it was 2520 yuan/ton with no change. The price of melamine in Shandong was 5017 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu, it was 5200 yuan/ton with no change [1]. 3.4 Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1662 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1681 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1658 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1673 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1672 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 300119 lots [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The market trend is generally stable, but there are fluctuations in different sectors. The supply and demand relationship is complex, with some products showing weak demand and wide supply gaps. Investment decisions should be made carefully, considering factors such as market trends, product prices, and enterprise operations [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Market Conditions**: The market shows a mixed trend, with some products experiencing price declines and others remaining stable. The trading volume and price of some products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, seasonality, and policy [1][2] - **Product Prices**: The prices of various products, including polyester, ethylene glycol, and other chemicals, fluctuate. For example, the price of ethylene glycol is affected by factors such as raw material costs, production capacity, and market demand [1][2] - **Enterprise Operations**: Enterprises face challenges such as supply and demand imbalances, cost pressures, and market competition. Some enterprises adjust their production plans and marketing strategies according to market conditions [2] - **Investment Suggestions**: Investors are advised to make decisions carefully, considering factors such as market trends, product prices, and enterprise operations. They should also pay attention to risks such as market fluctuations and policy changes [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Information - As of September 23, 2025, the spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $597.50 per ton, up 0.31% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 22, 2025, the price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was $846.00 per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 24, 2025, the ex - factory average price of ethylene oxide in East China was 6,300 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the spot price of methanol MA was 2,250 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia was 290 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the closing price of DCE EG's主力合约 was 4,212 yuan per ton, down 0.66% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,214 yuan per ton, down 0.82% [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the closing price of DCE EG's near - month contract was 4,200 yuan per ton, down 3.18% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,139 yuan per ton, down 4.59% [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the market price of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China was 4,280 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of MEG was 4,290 yuan per ton, down 1.04% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the near - far month price difference was 75 yuan per ton, down from 89 yuan per ton; the basis was 78 yuan per ton, down from 95 yuan per ton [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,400 yuan per ton, down 0.23% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,710 yuan per ton, down 0.35% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,525 yuan per ton, with no change; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 6,900 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. Operating Conditions - As of September 23, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol was 62.62%, up 0.42 percentage points; the operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol was 65.72%, up 0.72 percentage points; the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 58.14%, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the load rate of polyester factories in the PTA industrial chain was 89.00%, with no change; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.55%, with no change [1]. Cash Flow - As of September 22, 2025, the external - market cash flow of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - $120.46 per ton, down from - $119.50 per ton; the external - market cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol was $137.90 per ton, up from $135.90 per ton [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the after - tax gross profit of MTO - based MEG was 1,518.45 yuan per ton, up 46.46 yuan per ton; the after - tax gross profit of coal - based MEG was 278.32 yuan per ton, down 59.73 yuan per ton [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that interest rates remain restrictive, and the future rate - cut path needs to balance employment and inflation. The market expects the number of Fed rate cuts in 2026 to decrease from 3 to 2, which may lead to short - term adjustments in precious metal prices. However, considering the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, geopolitical risks such as the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, precious metal prices may be supported in the medium to long term [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Data Gold Market - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: The closing price was 855.44, with a change of 8.94 compared to the previous day and 20.36 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 230,847, and the open interest was 260,256. The inventory was 59,013 (in ten - gram units) [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T + D**: The closing price was 830.25 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 53,156 and an open interest of 214,762. The spread (near - month to far - month) was - 3.52, and the basis (spot - to - futures) was - 4.83 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 10,317, with a trading volume of 789,654 and an open interest of 336,864. The inventory was 39,682,786.18 (in troy ounces) [1] - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,783.80 dollars/ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF holding was 23.77, and the iShare Gold ETF holding was 464.57 [1] Silver Market - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: The closing price was 10,317, with a trading volume of 789,654 and an open interest of 336,864. The inventory was 1,221,428 (in ten - gram units) [1] - **Spot Shanghai Silver T + D**: The closing price was 10,275 yuan/ten - gram, with a trading volume of 606,548 and an open interest of 5,348. The spread (near - month to far - month) was - 43, and the basis (spot - to - futures) was - 74 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 44.27 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 75,969 and an open interest of 134,910. The inventory was 526,748,211.09 (in troy ounces) [1] - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 44.33 dollars/ounce. The US iShare Silver ETF holding was 15,469.12, and the PSLV Silver ETF holding was 6,132.75 [1] Other Markets - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was - 9.90 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 67.17 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 62.34 dollars/barrel [1] - **Base Metals**: Shanghai copper futures were 79,920 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was 9,993.50 dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,155 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 802.50 yuan/ton [1] - **Interest Rates**: The SHIBOR was 1.43 and 1.67. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was - 0.03, and the TIPS yield was 1.78 [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 97.2351, the US dollar - to - RMB central parity rate was 7.1013, and the euro - to - RMB central parity rate was 8.3877 [1] - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,821.8327, the S&P 500 was 6,656.92, the UK FTSE 100 was 9,223.32, the French CAC40 was 7,872.02, the German DAX was 23,611.33, the Nikkei 225 was 45,493.66, and the South Korean Composite Index was 3,407.31 [1] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to take partial profits on high - cost long positions at high prices and wait for price pull - backs to establish long positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,840 - 4,065. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 880 - 930. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 45.3 - 47.5. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,500 - 11,350 [1]

免责声明:宏深规货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的规货空营机构。已具备规货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料。本公 司时这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正、但文中的观点、特论称建议 仅供参考。不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行规模投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。（风险提示：आ市有风险 人市需谨慎! 研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 数据来源:SMM W 镍与不锈钢日评20250924:低位震荡 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-16 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 120730.00 | 121400.00 | 122610.00 | -670.00 | 1 m | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner. There are concerns about supply - demand imbalances in the market, with factors like OPEC+增产, device maintenance, and changes in production and sales affecting the prices and market trends of these products [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream Crude Oil and Naphtha**: On September 23, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.41 per barrel, up 1.81%; Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.63 per barrel, up 1.59%; the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $597.50 per ton, up 0.31% [1] - **PX Prices**: The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $803 per ton, down 0.66%. CZCE PX contracts also showed a decline, with the main - contract closing price at 6530 yuan/ton, down 0.94% [1] - **PTA Prices**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4556 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4470 yuan/ton, down 1.11% [1] - **PR Prices**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5718 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5710 yuan/ton, down 0.35% [1] Operating Conditions - For the PX industry, the operating rate on September 23, 2025, was 85.57%, unchanged from the previous value. The PTA factory load rate was 79.38%, up 2.56 percentage points [1] - The load rates of polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 89.00%, 74.19%, and 67.55% respectively. The production - sales rates of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips all decreased [1] Device Information - A 700,000 - ton PX device in the Northeast has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2] Market Analysis - **PX**: OPEC+ is continuing to increase production, and Iraq and the Kurdish region have reached a preliminary agreement to restart the oil pipeline. The expected increase in crude oil supply of 230,000 barrels per day has intensified concerns about supply over - capacity. The global supply - surplus expectation for PX is strengthening, and its cost support is insufficient. There is an obvious increase in PX supply due to short - process capacity expansion and postponed device maintenance, while demand has decreased due to delayed new PTA device production and multiple PTA device maintenance [2] - **PTA**: With insufficient cost support, the TA2601 contract closed at 4556 yuan/ton. The global supply - surplus expectation is strengthening, and PTA operating conditions are a mix of start - up and load reduction. The market's bearish sentiment dominates, and the production and sales of polyester products are mediocre [2] - **PR**: The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is trading at 5700 - 5820 yuan/ton. The prices of polyester raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures are weakly volatile. The supply side has sufficient market supply, and downstream terminals are replenishing stocks at low prices, with a fair trading atmosphere [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - On September 23, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range, with an increase in trading volume and a decrease in open interest. In the spot market, low - price transactions were acceptable, and the basis premium decreased. The prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite remained flat on the cost side. On the supply side, lithium carbonate production increased last week, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials also increased. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium manganate increased, while the production of power batteries remained basically flat last week. In the terminal market, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September. In terms of inventory, registered warehouse receipts increased, and social inventory decreased. Overall, both supply and demand are strong, the inventory pressure of upstream is not large, and the expectation of lithium ore supply contraction is weakened. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream restocking cycle and the deadline for Jiangxi's mining end to submit reserve reports. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Futures Market**: On September 23, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased compared with the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 497,857 hands (+101,212), and the open interest was 255,907 hands (-15,717). The inventory was 39,449 tons (+540). The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) decreased by 240 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Market**: The average prices of various lithium products such as spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide remained mostly unchanged, while the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium increased by 500 yuan/ton to 57,500 yuan/ton. The average prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials also increased [1]. - **Inventory**: The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 981 tons to 137,531 tons last week. The inventory of smelters and others decreased, while the downstream inventory increased [1]. Industry News - **Chile**: Chile's economic development agency Corfo submitted a resolution to extend the contract of the Atacama Salt Lake project with SQM Salar SpA until 2030 and a new mineral lease contract with Codelco and Minera Tarapacá SoA from 2031 to 2060. SQM and Codelco are expected to finalize a partnership for the development of the Atacama Salt Flat in northern Chile this year, marking the first large - scale entry into lithium production in the region [1]. - **China**: On September 20, the first - phase lithium carbonate project of Luopu Tuhai New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. was put into operation in Xinjiang. The project has a total investment of 4.6 billion yuan, and after full - scale production, it can process 300,000 tons of lithium concentrate and produce 30,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate annually [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Lead**: In August 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate increased. The supply of lead is expected to be tightened in the short - term, with the production of primary lead fluctuating slightly and the production of recycled lead decreasing. Demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect is not obvious. Short - term lead prices are expected to remain high, but the upside space may be limited [1]. - **Zinc**: In August 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrate decreased slightly compared to July but increased year - on - year. The supply of zinc is increasing, and demand has slightly improved but may be affected by typhoon weather. Although the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, the low LME zinc inventory and the back structure of LME 0 - 3 provide strong support for zinc prices. The short - term downside space of Shanghai zinc may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,975 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day. The closing price of the futures main contract was 17,085 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 100.07% to 48,758 lots, and the open interest increased by 133.09% to 63,941 lots. The LME inventory was 219,975 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 6.19% to 41,610 tons [1]. - **Import and Export**: In August 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate was 134,800 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.23% and a year - on - year increase of 15.22%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 reached 927,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 28.18%. The export volume of lead - acid batteries in August was 18.1577 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 14.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.14%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was 152 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 7.93% [1]. - **Fundamentals and Outlook**: The supply of lead concentrate is not expected to increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. The production of primary lead fluctuates slightly, and the production of recycled lead decreases. Demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect is not obvious. Short - term lead prices are expected to remain high, but the upside space may be limited [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 21,810 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day. The closing price of the futures main contract was 21,845 yuan/ton, down 1.11%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 10.81% to 125,331 lots, and the open interest increased by 7.63% to 140,372 lots. The LME inventory was 45,775 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2.83% to 56,613 tons [1]. - **Import and Project News**: In August 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 467,300 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 30.06%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 3.5027 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.06%. The Baijiuchang Mine of Shandong Zhaojin Group and Mengzi Mining Company resumed production, with an expected output of 250,000 - 300,000 tons in the second half of the year and an increase in comprehensive output value of 25% [1]. - **Fundamentals and Outlook**: The raw material inventory of zinc smelters is sufficient, and processing fees are rising. The supply of zinc is increasing, and demand has slightly improved but may be affected by typhoon weather. Although the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, the low LME zinc inventory and the back structure of LME 0 - 3 provide strong support for zinc prices. The short - term downside space of Shanghai zinc may be limited [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Lead**: Temporarily hold off on trading [1]. - **Zinc**: Try to go long at low prices with a light position [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it suggests a trading strategy of "关注逢低做多机会" (pay attention to buying opportunities on dips), which implies a relatively positive view on potential long - term opportunities in the methanol market [1]. 2) Core View The methanol market has been experiencing weak and volatile trends recently due to high port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland areas, which have suppressed the spot price. The port inventory increased last week, intensifying the inventory pressure. In the short term, the upward driving force is limited because of the high absolute level of port inventories and the lack of restocking motivation among MTO enterprises. But considering that the current spot price in East China has fallen to a low level and the price difference with the inland is also relatively small, the room for further decline is limited. With the arrival of the peak season for traditional downstream industries, it may help relieve the current inventory pressure. Therefore, the report recommends waiting and paying attention to subsequent buying opportunities [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content a) Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2348.00 yuan/ton on 2025/9/22 to 2343.00 yuan/ton on 2025/9/23, a decrease of 0.21%; MA05 decreased from 2376.00 yuan/ton to 2375.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04%; MA09 increased from 2333.00 yuan/ton to 2337.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: In most regions, spot prices showed a downward trend. For example, in Hubei, the price dropped from 2380.00 yuan/ton to 2320.00 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 2.52%. However, in Guangdong, the price increased from 2250.00 yuan/ton to 2255.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22% [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Some coal prices increased slightly, such as the price of Ordos Q5500 coal, which rose from 530.00 yuan/ton to 535.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.94%. Most natural gas prices remained unchanged [1]. b) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 407.40 yuan/ton to 394.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.09%; natural gas - based methanol profit decreased from - 362.00 yuan/ton to - 422.00 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 16.57% [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Some downstream products' profits increased, such as MTBE, whose profit increased from 376.68 yuan/ton to 408.48 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.44%. However, some remained unchanged, like formaldehyde [1]. c) Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range. It opened at 2339 yuan/ton, closed at 2343 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 465051 lots and an open interest of 967432, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: Due to technical failures, a 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country reduced its load to 50%, and another 1.65 - million - ton plant is under maintenance. It is estimated that the loading volume at the port will decrease from late September to the end of the month [1].