Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - Short - term market sentiment has improved, and coal prices have stopped falling and rebounded. Fundamentally, recent coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the pressure of oversupply to some extent, and the inventory accumulation speed of upstream coal mines has slowed down. In the short term, coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Situation - Yesterday, the overall price of coking coal and coke continued the upward trend of fluctuations. Currently, the coking coal 09 contract has rebounded 12% from the bottom, and coke has rebounded 7%. On the spot side, the fourth round of coke price cuts has been gradually implemented, and there is no further price - cut dynamic for the time being [2]. - Recently, affected by safety factors, some coal mines in Changzhi area have received notices to stop production for self - inspection. The shutdown period is about 3 days. Coal mines in Qinyuan area have received shutdown notices, involving a verified production capacity of 22.3 million tons. According to the latest research, it affects the daily output of raw coal by 82,200 tons, and the affected coal types are lean coal and lean primary coking coal. In the short term, the supply has tightened, but the long - term impact is limited [2]. Inventory Data - Last week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.99 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 7.01 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 million tons. The inventory level is still at an absolute high [2]. Downstream Conditions - Downstream steel mills' start - up is relatively stable, and the molten iron output remains above 2.4 million tons [2]. Import Data - According to customs data, in May, China imported 738,690 tons of coking coal, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.68%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 4.37139 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8056 million tons, a decline of 8.01%. The decrease in imports is mainly due to the decline in Mongolian coal imports. In the first five months, China imported 2.00486 billion tons of Mongolian coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0025 million tons, a decline of 16.6%. In addition, affected by high tariffs, the import of US coal was zero in May [2].

Group 1 - Report's industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: Still treat steel as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [3] Group 3 - From January to May 2025, China exported 471.7 million tons of steel billets, 165.4 million tons of steel bars, and 459.3 million tons of wire rods, with year - on - year increases of 355 million tons, 78 million tons, and 131.6 million tons respectively, a total increase of 565 million tons [2] - On June 23, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged from last Friday. The average profit was - 133 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was - 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from last Friday [2] - The Passenger Car Association predicts that the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in June will reach 2 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.4% and a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. Among them, new energy retail sales are expected to reach 1.1 million, and the penetration rate will rebound to about 55% [2] - The prices of finished steel products rose and then fell yesterday, with small cross - star candlesticks for rebar and hot - rolled coils, showing little fluctuation. Market drivers are weak, and weak demand still exerts pressure on prices [2] - Later, pay attention to macro policies and downstream demand [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - **Steel**: The report suggests a strategy of testing short positions on rebounds for steel. The industry is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and with the arrival of the demand off - season, prices are more likely to fall without macro - policy support [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is expected to run strongly in a narrow range. Although the supply is expected to increase, the high domestic demand provides support. The i2509 contract price is expected to be in the range of 695 - 720 yuan/ton, and the FE07 contract price in the range of 93 - 96 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term market sentiment for coking coal and coke has improved, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The reduction in coal production and imports has alleviated the supply - surplus pressure [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is expected to show narrow - range adjustments, following the trend of the black - metal market. The supply of ferromanganese is increasing, putting pressure on prices, while the impact of ferrosilicon inventory on prices is neutral [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of futures and spot prices of various black - industry products showed different changes last week. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 increased by 23 yuan/ton (0.77%), and the spot price of HRB400E:Φ20 in Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.32%) [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black - Industry Market Forecast - **Steel**: The blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.79%, and the steel - mill profitability rate was 59.31%. The demand for finished products is in the off - season, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The strategy is to test short positions on rebounds [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The market was mainly affected by geopolitical factors last week. The demand for finished products was in the off - season but did not accumulate inventory. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, but high demand provides support for prices [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal and coke continued to fluctuate last week. The 4th round of price cuts for coke by steel mills is expected to be implemented this week. The reduction in imports and production has alleviated the supply - surplus pressure [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market reaction to the Fed's interest - rate decision was stable, but the escalation of the Middle East conflict may increase market volatility. The supply of ferromanganese is increasing, and the demand for both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon has slightly recovered [12]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 212.18 tons (up 4.61 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 219.19 tons (down 0.78 tons week - on - week). The total inventory was 551.07 tons (down 7.01 tons week - on - week) [14][21]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The output was 325.45 tons (up 0.8 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 330.69 tons (up 10.81 tons week - on - week). The total inventory was 340.17 tons (down 5.24 tons week - on - week) [27][32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: The total import - ore port inventory (45 ports) was 13894.16 tons (down 38.98 tons week - on - week). The inventory of various ore types showed different changes [45][51]. - **Steel - Mill Inventory and Consumption**: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 8936.24 tons (up 137.56 tons week - on - week), and the daily consumption was 301.00 tons/day (up 0.57 tons/day week - on - week) [55]. - **Global Shipment**: The global total shipment was 3431.0 tons (up 242.3 tons week - on - week), with different changes in shipments from different regions [71]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 952.91 tons (down 18.68 tons week - on - week), and the total coking - coal inventory was 2610.4 tons (down 11.19 tons week - on - week) [101][109]. - **Production and Profit**: The average daily coke output of independent coking enterprises was 64.7 tons (down 0.3 tons week - on - week), and the average daily coking - coal output of 523 coking mines was 74.4 tons (up 0.3 tons week - on - week) [118][119]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: The spot price of ferromanganese was 5500 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the spot price of ferrosilicon was 5100 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week) [135]. - **Production and Demand**: The output of ferromanganese was 176610 tons (up 3220 tons week - on - week), and the demand was 123717 tons (up 1564 tons week - on - week). The output of ferrosilicon was 9.79 tons (up 0.28 tons week - on - week), and the demand was 19964.4 tons (up 357 tons week - on - week) [143][150].

【华宝期货】有色金属周报 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡） 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025.6.20 2025.6.13 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | | 2025.6.20 2025.6.13 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2507 | 77990 | 78010 | -20 | -0. 03% | 中国:平均价:铜:上海物贸 | 78370 | 78715 | -345 | -0. 44% | | 铝 | AL2508 | 20465 | 20440 | 25 | 0. 12% | 中国:平均价:铝(A00):有色市场 | 20700 | 20760 | -60 | -0. 29% | | 锌 | ZN2507 | 21845 | 21815 | 30 | 0. 14% | 中国:价格:锌锭(0#,Zn99. 995,国产,进口) | 21772 | 21838 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term domestic macro expectation has increased, the market trading focus may gradually shift to the strong reality. The demand remains at a relatively high level to support the futures price. The supply is expected to increase month - on - month, and the inventory tends to accumulate but the pressure is weak. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate within a range and run strongly. The later focus is on whether the hot metal production rebounds beyond expectations and the policy increment of the Political Bureau meeting [3] 3) Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Logic - Last week, the market mainly traded the escalation and easing of geopolitical tensions. The black series fluctuated narrowly, and the iron ore price followed the trend, with coking coal performing strongly. The demand for finished products continued the off - season characteristics but did not accumulate inventory, performing stronger than expected. The supply of iron ore showed seasonal incremental characteristics, and the carbon element continued to give way to the iron element. The blast furnace profit was relatively considerable, and the domestic iron ore demand remained at a relatively high level, supporting the iron ore price. In June, the basis of iron ore returned from the spot to the futures. The spot price dropped significantly compared with the end of May, while the futures was relatively stable [3] Supply - Last Monday, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased slightly month - on - month. The shipments from Australia to China and the total Australian shipments declined, while Brazilian shipments remained at a relatively high level, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. The arrival volume decreased significantly month - on - month. Overall, June is the peak season for overseas iron ore shipments. It is expected that the overseas shipments will steadily recover, and the domestic actual supply will increase significantly. The support from the supply side will weaken marginally. The later focus is on the investment of non - mainstream mines [3] Demand - The domestic hot metal production ended a five - week decline and rebounded slightly. The current daily average hot metal production is 242.18 (month - on - month + 0.57). With the high profitability of steel mills and considerable blast furnace profits, combined with the deep losses of the short - process steelmaking and the significant increase in the iron - scrap price difference, it is expected that the short - term iron ore demand will be tough and support the price [3] Inventory - Due to the continuous increase in sea - going shipments, the inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills has been rising month - on - month, and the daily consumption has increased due to the resumption of production of some steel mills. Steel mills mostly purchase on demand. Due to the decrease in arrival volume and the increase in port clearance volume, the port inventory decreased slightly this period. It is expected that the inventory will gradually accumulate slightly, but the pressure is weak due to high demand [3] Price - The i2509 contract price ranges from 695 yuan/ton to 720 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE07 contract price ranges from 93 to 96 US dollars/ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests treating steel products with a strategy of short - selling on rebounds [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Industry Event News**: The Australian Anti - Dumping Commission postponed the basic fact report of the anti - dumping investigation on Chinese hot - rolled steel coils to December 10, 2025, and the final arbitration report will be submitted to the minister by February 25, 2026. The consumer goods trade - in policy has no change, and the subsidy funds are being used as expected, with central funds to be issued in the third and fourth quarters [2]. - **Industry Data**: Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.79%, a 0.21 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, a 0.87 - percentage - point increase; the daily average hot - metal output was 242.18 million tons, a 0.57 - million - ton increase. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 54.54%, a 2.19 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 0.81 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [2]. - **Market Situation**: Last week, steel products showed little change, consolidating at the bottom. Although the price center shifted up slightly, it was still a narrow - range adjustment at a low level. The macro and fundamental aspects were relatively calm, and the weekly fundamentals continued the previous situation of strong supply and weak demand. As it has entered the off - season of demand, there is a possibility of further decline in future demand, and the probability of effective improvement in terminal demand is low. Without macro - policy promotion, the industry fundamentals are more likely to lead to prices falling rather than rising [2].

从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：几内亚雨季影响显现 低库存下铝价偏强震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 观点：预计价格短期偏强震荡，关注宏观情绪和下游开工。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short term, market sentiment has recovered, and coal prices have stopped falling and rebounded. Fundamentally, recent coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the pressure of oversupply to some extent, and the speed of inventory accumulation in upstream coal mines has slowed down. In the short term, coal and coke may continue to fluctuate [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Logic and Price Trends - Last week, the overall price of coal and coke continued to fluctuate, with the price center rising slightly. On the spot side, on June 20, steel mills in Hebei began the fourth round of coke price cuts, with a reduction of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, planned to be implemented on the 23rd [2]. Import Data - In May, China imported 7.3869 million tons of coking coal, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.68%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 43.7139 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8056 million tons, a decrease of 8.01%. The decrease in imports was mainly due to the decline in Mongolian coal imports. In the first five months, China imported 20.0486 million tons of Mongolian coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0025 million tons, a decrease of 16.6%. In addition, due to high tariffs, US coal imports were zero in May [2]. Market Conditions - The decline in spot coal prices has narrowed, market transactions have improved, and the situation of low - price resources has improved. Last week, some coal mines in Shanxi that had stopped production due to safety reasons gradually resumed production, and the output stopped falling. The growth rate of clean coal inventory at the mine end has slowed down. Last week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.99 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 7.01 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.165 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 million tons. The inventory level is still at an absolute high. Downstream steel mills' start - up is relatively stable, and the molten iron output remains above 2.4 million tons [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is to view the price as "oscillating weakly" and take a bearish stance [2]. 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term domestic macro - expectation is weak, the market trading focus returns to the weak pattern of strong reality + weak expectation. The demand maintains a downward trend but stays at a relatively high level, and the supply side has a strong expectation of incremental growth. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will oscillate weakly [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the black series maintained a narrow - range oscillation, and the iron ore price followed. The demand for finished products shows off - season characteristics but no inventory accumulation. The supply of iron ore has a seasonal increase, and the profit of blast furnaces is relatively good. Domestic iron ore demand is expected to remain at a relatively high level, which supports the iron ore price [2]. Supply - The current overseas ore shipment increased slightly month - on - month. The volume of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly, while Brazilian shipments declined from a high level, and shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. In June, it is the peak season for overseas ore shipments. With the fiscal year end volume - boosting of Australian BHP and FMG mines, overseas ore shipments are expected to maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [2]. Demand - Domestic hot - metal production ended a five - week decline and rebounded slightly, and the demand stopped falling and stabilized. The current daily average hot - metal output is 242.18 (month - on - month + 0.57). The current profit rate of steel mills is high, and the blast - furnace profit is relatively good. With the full - depth losses of short - process steelmaking, the demand for iron ore is resilient, and high demand supports the price [2]. Inventory - Due to the continuous increase in sea - floating shipments, the inventory of imported ore at steel mills increased month - on - month. The daily consumption increased due to the resumption of production of individual steel mills. Steel mills mostly purchase on - demand due to weak demand expectations. Due to the decline in arrivals and the increase in port clearance, the port inventory decreased slightly this period. It is expected that the inventory will gradually accumulate slightly in the later period, but the inventory accumulation pressure is weak due to high demand [2]. Price - The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly and should be treated bearishly [2].

晨报 成材 成材：市场平淡 钢价低位盘整 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 重要声明： 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 20 日 成材：市场平淡 钢价低位盘整 逻辑：根据钢联周度数据，螺纹钢产量上升 4.61 万吨至 212.18 万吨， 热卷产量上升 0.8 万吨至 325.45 万吨，五大材产量上升 9.66 万吨自 868.51 万吨；螺纹钢总库存下降 7.01 万吨至 551.07 万吨，热卷总库存 下降 5.24 万吨至 340.17 ...