Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - After the rapid decline in the previous period, the pessimistic sentiment in the market has been released. Coupled with a slight improvement in market expectations, the price has staged a phased rebound. However, the fundamentals remain weak, resulting in a lackluster price rebound [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Report Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the prices of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated with relatively sharp price movements. In the spot market, the price of high - quality primary coking coal in Shanxi remained stable. Steel mills completed the third round of price cuts for coke, and downstream may replenish raw materials after the price drop [2] Import Data - In recent months, China's coking coal imports have remained at a relatively high level. In November, China imported 10.7315 million tons of coking coal, a month - on - month increase of 1.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.72%. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports reached 105 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.687 million tons, a decline of 5.99%. In November, Mongolia's coking coal imports were 6.2441 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.38% and a year - on - year increase of 19.65%. High - frequency data shows that Mongolia's coal clearance remained high in December, with inventory increasing in the port supervision area [2] Supply Side - In the short term, the fundamentals have not changed significantly. Last week, some coal mines in the main production areas resumed production after face - changing operations and increased production to meet the annual production targets, resulting in a slight increase in output. However, as it is the peak period for year - end coal mine maintenance, the increase in output may be limited. With downstream coke and steel enterprises starting to replenish inventory, the trading of coking coal has improved [2] Demand Side - Last week, the blast furnace hot metal output dropped to 2.2655 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 28,600 tons, which continued to suppress the rigid demand for raw materials [2] Future Focus - Pay attention to changes in steel mill blast furnace operations and coal mine复产 conditions [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The report suggests paying attention to macro - policy, downstream demand, macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - **Logic**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival, with an estimated impact on the total building steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown schedules, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons. From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year. The finished products market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2][3] - **Viewpoint**: The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner [3] - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policy and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Ingots - **Logic**: Overseas data has increased the optimistic sentiment towards interest rate cuts, providing macro - level support. Domestically, for domestic bauxite, the northern resumption is slow and the supply is unstable, but the alumina plant's inventory has reached a high level, so the price may decline. For imported bauxite, Guinea's shipping volume is high and a large mining project is resuming production, which will support future supply. The aluminum price rose yesterday, and with the improvement of Xinjiang's shipping and a large number of arrivals this week, along with environmental protection restrictions affecting downstream processing enterprises, the receiving sentiment weakened on Monday. The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises decreased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased [2][3] - **Viewpoint**: The aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4] - **Later Concerns**: Macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mine resumption, and consumption release [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of building materials continues to move downward, with the price hitting a new low. In a pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak support for the price, and it will operate in an oscillatory consolidation manner [3] - The lithium carbonate futures price shows an interval oscillation pattern, with the main contract running between RMB 109,000 and RMB 116,500 per ton. The significant increase in the market is mainly affected by capital sentiment. The interval oscillation intensifies, and it's necessary to be vigilant about capital and sentiment fluctuations, and pay attention to the marginal changes in supply and demand [2][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Building Materials - Logic: Most short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region stopped production for maintenance from mid - to late January during the Spring Festival, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total production of construction steel of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. Among 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui Province, 1 mill started to shut down on January 5th, and most of the remaining mills will shut down around mid - January, with a few mills expected to shut down after January 20th, with a daily impact on production of about 16,200 tons [2] - Market performance: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [3] - Future focus: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3] Lithium Carbonate - Logic: The lithium carbonate futures price shows an interval oscillation, and the significant increase in the market is mainly affected by capital sentiment. The spot price is rising, the market activity is decreasing, and the annual long - term contract negotiation between upstream and downstream enterprises is still in progress [2] - Supply: The raw material price rises, strengthening cost support. Last week, the total weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate increased by 0.21% week - on - week, and the weekly output increased by 0.21% week - on - week. The lithium spodumene process became the core increment of production, and the industry's production capacity release rhythm advanced steadily [3] - Demand: In the short term, the demand slightly decreased, but the long - term resilience remained unchanged. Last week, the production of ternary and lithium - iron batteries decreased week - on - week, and the inventory continued to decline. The production of power cells decreased slightly week - on - week but increased significantly year - on - year. The sales of new energy vehicles showed short - term fluctuations [3] - Inventory: Last week, the weekly inventory of SMM samples decreased slightly by 0.9% week - on - week, continuing the destocking state, and the destocking slope slowed down. The total inventory days decreased by 1.1% week - on - week. There was phased inventory accumulation in other links. The social inventory showed a state of inventory accumulation, with a month - on - month decrease of 54.71%. The core pattern of tight overall industry inventory has not changed [3] - Macro policy: The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits, providing support for the long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate [4] - Market sentiment: The collective price increase of battery manufacturers (such as Degjia Energy's 15% increase) drives the sentiment to warm up, but it is necessary to pay attention to the disturbances of overseas resource/restart news and domestic lithium mine production capacity dynamics. In addition, news such as the adjustment of trading limits for lithium carbonate futures contracts by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the publicity of the mining project of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo lithium mine also have a phased impact on the market sentiment [4] - Future focus: The implementation of macro policies, the progress of production capacity release, the resilience of downstream demand, the destocking slope of sample inventory, and capital and sentiment [4]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the rapid decline in the previous period, the pessimistic sentiment in the market has been released, and with a slight improvement in market expectations, prices are experiencing a phased rebound. However, the fundamentals remain weak, resulting in a lackluster price rebound [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Performance - Yesterday, the prices of coal and coke futures first declined and then rose, with a sharp rise and fall during the night session, showing relatively intense price fluctuations [2] 2. Spot Market - In the spot market, the price of high - quality primary coking coal in Shanxi region remained stable with a slight increase. For coke, steel mills completed the third round of price cuts, and there may be restocking actions for raw materials by downstream enterprises after the price drop [2] 3. Policy Adjustment - The Dalian Commodity Exchange issued a new delivery quality standard for coking coal last week. The main changes include increasing the strength requirements for the delivery product, reducing the premium and discount range for sulfur content, and lowering the premium range for designated delivery warehouses in Tangshan and Tianjin. After the adjustment, the coking coal futures target will be further aligned with medium - sulfur, high - strength primary coking coal, especially the mainstream coking coal in Shanxi. These adjustments will be implemented starting from the JM2701 contract [2] 4. Supply - In the short term, the fundamentals have not changed significantly. Last week, the output of individual coal mines in the main production areas increased slightly after the completion of face - changing and in an effort to catch up with the annual production capacity target. However, as it is currently the high - incidence period for year - end maintenance of coal mines, the increase in output may be limited. With the downstream coke and steel enterprises gradually starting to restock, the trading of coking coal has improved [3] 5. Import - The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 207,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 139,000 tons. The high customs clearance volume continues, and the inventory in the port supervision area keeps increasing [3] 6. Demand - Last week, the blast furnace hot metal output decreased to 2.2655 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 28,600 tons, continuously suppressing the rigid demand for raw materials [3] 7. Future Focus - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace operation rate of steel mills and the resumption of production in coal mines [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel products are expected to trade in a low - level consolidation range [4] Group 3: Summary Based on Content Macro - Policy - Premier Li Qiang of the State Council chaired a meeting of the leading group for the preparation of the Outline Draft of the 15th Five - Year Plan, emphasizing the planning of major projects and carriers to support future development and current economic stability [3] Export Situation in November 2025 - In November 2025, most categories of China's steel exports reversed from a decline to an increase on a month - on - month basis, with an obvious rotation in the export structure. Among plates, there was a differentiation: the month - on - month export of coated sheets, which had ranked first for many months, dropped by 13.7% to 1.753 million tons, while the month - on - month export of hot - rolled sheets reversed from a decline to an increase, rising to the first place in monthly export volume [3] Market Performance - The steel products fluctuated and consolidated yesterday with a small price range, and the market contradiction was not prominent. The fundamentals showed a situation of weak supply and demand. After the domestic meetings at the end of the year, macro - disturbances will significantly decrease in the future. Without a driving force, steel prices may continue to consolidate within the current range [3]

【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 01 有色周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡、碳酸锂） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 周度行情回顾 2025.12.22 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025. 12. 19 2025. 12. 12 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | | 2025. 12. 19 2025. 12. 12 周变动 | | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2602 | 93180 | 94080 | -900 | -0. 96% | 中国:平均价:铜:上海物贸 | 92480 | 93830 | -1350 | -1. 4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall**: The report provides a weekly review and forecast of the black industry chain, covering various products such as steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and ferroalloys. It analyzes the supply - demand situation, price trends, and market factors of each product [12][13][16]. - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to consolidate at low levels due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and a lack of macro - level drivers [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - level driving force is weakening, but restocking demand may support prices. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price of Dalian iron ore futures ranging from 770 to 800 yuan/ton [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a rapid decline in the previous period, the pessimistic sentiment in the market has been released, and prices may rebound periodically. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and prices are likely to fluctuate at low levels [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon manganese is expected to adjust narrowly in the short term due to accumulated supply - demand contradictions and high inventory pressure. Silicon iron is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term as supply contracts and inventory decreases [16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The futures prices of most products showed an upward trend last week. For example, the RB2605 contract of rebar rose 1.93% to 3119 yuan/ton, and the HC2605 contract of hot - rolled coil rose 1.14% to 3269 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of most products also increased, with rebar rising 0.92% to 3300 yuan/ton and hot - rolled coil rising 0.93% to 3270 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast 3.2.1 Steel Products - **Logic**: The supply - demand of steel products is weak. The utilization rate of blast furnace capacity decreased, and the daily average pig iron output decreased. The demand is not improving in the short term and may decline further with the cold weather. The price rebound is mainly due to the raw material price [12]. - **Viewpoint**: Steel prices will consolidate at low levels [12]. - **Attention Points**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [12]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Logic**: The supply of foreign mines decreased slightly week - on - week, and the arrival volume was at a medium - high level. Domestic demand decreased rapidly, and the inventory of steel mills was low. The port inventory continued to accumulate [13]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price of Dalian iron ore futures ranging from 770 to 800 yuan/ton. The strategy is to operate within the range and sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - **Attention Points**: Macro - policy increments, implementation of industrial policies, and supply recovery speed [13]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic**: The market sentiment improved last week, and the futures prices rebounded. The production of coking coal increased slightly, and the import volume of Mongolian coal remained high. The demand for raw materials was suppressed due to the decrease in pig iron output [14]. - **Viewpoint**: Prices may rebound periodically but are likely to fluctuate at low levels in the short term [14]. - **Attention Points**: Production rhythm changes in the coking coal - coke - steel industry and changes in imported coal customs clearance [14]. 3.2.4 Ferroalloys - **Logic**: The macro - economic situation is complex. The supply of silicon manganese and silicon iron decreased, and the demand was weak. The inventory of silicon manganese reached a new high, while the inventory of silicon iron decreased [16]. - **Viewpoint**: Silicon manganese will adjust narrowly, and silicon iron will be slightly stronger in the short term [16]. - **Attention Points**: Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [16]. 3.3 Product Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 181.68 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.90 tons), the apparent demand was 208.64 tons (a week - on - week increase of 5.55 tons), and the total inventory was 452.54 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 26.96 tons) [19][27]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 291.91 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 16.80 tons), the apparent demand was 298.28 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13.69 tons), and the total inventory was 390.72 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 6.37 tons) [32][37]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: This week, the total port inventory of imported ore was 15512.63 tons (a week - on - week increase of 81.21 tons), and the daily average port dredging volume was 313.45 tons/day (a week - on - week decrease of 5.74 tons) [52]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: This week, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8723.95 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 110.25 tons), and the daily consumption was 280.56 tons/day (a week - on - week decrease of 2.71 tons) [62]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coke Inventory**: Last week, the total coke inventory was 900.45 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 3.35 tons) [90]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Last week, the total coking coal inventory was 2727.57 tons (a week - on - week increase of 0.37 tons) [97]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: Last week, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 34 yuan/dry ton degree, the silicon manganese price in Inner Mongolia was 5540 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan), and the silicon iron price in Inner Mongolia was 5250 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 130 yuan) [130]. - **Production**: Last week, the silicon manganese output of 187 independent enterprises was 188230 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 1015 tons), and the silicon iron output of 136 independent enterprises was 99800 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 6500 tons) [136][139]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand for silicon manganese from five major steel products was 112402 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 385 tons), and the demand for silicon iron was 18132 tons (a week - on - week increase of 84 tons) [141]. - **Inventory**: On December 19, the silicon manganese inventory of 63 independent enterprises was 384500 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2500 tons), and the silicon iron inventory of 60 independent enterprises was 65160 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 12680 tons) [145].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoint of the Report The macro - driving force is weakening, the fundamentals of the industrial chain have improved, but the decline in domestic iron ore demand has exceeded expectations. The supply side is generally stable with a slight increase. It is expected that the port inventory will tend to accumulate. The short - term market focus has shifted to the real - world situation, and the upside potential of prices is limited. However, restocking demand may support prices, and the market will be mainly in a volatile state in the short term. The price of the main iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange will operate in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [2][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Logic Last week, the black - metal complex rebounded as the inventory pressure on finished products continued to ease, the valuation of the industrial chain recovered, and the strong spot price of iron ore supported the futures market. With the upcoming steel - mill restocking cycle, restocking demand may support prices to remain relatively strong [3]. Supply The weekly shipments of foreign iron ore increased significantly compared to the previous week, with significant increases in shipments from Australia and Brazil. According to seasonal patterns and the shipping targets of major mines this year, major mines will have a phased push to increase shipments at the end of the year, and the shipping volume will increase month - on - month. In terms of arrival volume, it remains at a moderately high level in the short term, and the support from the supply side is relatively weak [3]. Demand Domestic demand has continued to decline at an accelerating pace, with the decline exceeding expectations. Based on the current production - cut intensity and restart plans, the molten iron output may be approaching its lowest level. This is mainly due to the combined effects of environmental protection - related production restrictions and annual maintenance. The average daily molten iron output this period was 226.55 million tons, a decrease of 2.65 million tons compared to the previous period, and the absolute level of molten iron output has been lower than that of the same period last year. High - level maintenance mainly occurred in Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong, Xinjiang, and Anhui. In Hebei, environmental protection - related production restrictions intensified, leading to an increase in steel - mill maintenance, while in other regions, it was mainly annual maintenance. Blast - furnace restarts occurred in Liaoning, Shanxi, Fujian, and Anhui, mainly after the completion of blast - furnace maintenance as planned. The decline in molten iron output this week was mainly due to the continued impact of blast - furnace maintenance from last week. Additionally, an individual steel mill in Hebei reduced production due to environmental protection - related production restrictions, and the blast - furnace restart plan in this region was postponed, which was also the main reason for the larger - than - expected decline in molten iron output [3]. Inventory The imported iron - ore inventory at steel mills remains at a relatively low level. The steel - mill inventory this period decreased compared to the previous period and is at the lowest level in recent years. High prices have suppressed the willingness to restock, and currently, steel mills' restocking actions are weak. Later, attention should be paid to when the full - scale restocking of US - dollar - denominated iron ore by steel mills will start. Port inventory has continued to accumulate, mainly because the arrival volume has remained relatively high. It is expected that port inventory will continue to accumulate in December [3]. Strategy Adopt range - bound trading and use covered call options [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - For成材, it is expected to be in a state of shock and consolidation. With a pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices. The later focus is on macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. - For铝锭, it is expected to be in a short - term strong shock state. Overseas data has further boosted the optimistic sentiment towards interest rate cuts, and the macro sentiment is favorable. However, the domestic off - season has arrived, the inventory trend is volatile, and high prices suppress consumption. Attention should be paid to macro guidance and mine - end news [3][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog 成材 - **Production Suspension Impact**: Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival production suspension is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different production suspension plans, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons during the suspension period [3][4]. - **Real Estate Transaction Data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [4]. - **Price Trend**: Yesterday, it continued to decline in shock, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down [4]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to be in a state of shock and consolidation. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. 铝锭 - **Macro Situation**: Overseas data has further boosted the optimistic sentiment towards interest rate cuts. In November, the US consumer price increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, with a favorable macro sentiment [3]. - **Domestic Raw Material Situation**: For domestic ore, the resumption of production in the north is slow, and the supply is unstable. However, the alumina plant's bauxite inventory has reached an absolute high of 54.546 million tons, and the domestic ore price is expected to decline. For imported ore, the shipment volume from Guinea is still high, and a large - scale mining project has resumed production, with shipments expected to resume from January [4]. - **Downstream Processing Situation**: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.5% last week, continuing the weak operation in the off - season. Different industries have different situations, such as the stable operation of the primary aluminum alloy industry, the significant pressure on the aluminum plate and strip industry, the weak decline of the aluminum cable industry, and the weak operation of the aluminum profile industry in the short term [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: On December 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 600,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the previous Monday [4]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to be in a short - term strong shock state. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [5][6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a state of shock consolidation [4] - The view on lithium carbonate is that it will stabilize with range - bound fluctuations, and one should pay attention to marginal supply - demand changes and be vigilant against emotional fluctuations [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui regional short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and restart times are expected to affect a total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills' shutdowns will affect a daily output of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, with a 40.3% decline from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - Finished products continued to decline in shock, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to move down. This year's winter storage was sluggish, providing weak support for prices [4] - The later focus includes macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 111,400 yuan/ton, with a slight decline in trading volume and positions, and the net short position of the main contract continued. The average price of electric carbon was 97,650 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend, and the basis of the main contract was - 13,750 yuan/ton. Market activity was extremely low [3] - Fundamentally, the year - on - year increase in raw material prices was over 7%, strengthening cost support. As of December 18, the total weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 51.4%, with a 0.21% increase from the previous period, and the weekly output was 22,045 tons, also with a 0.21% increase [4] - There were significant differences in production processes. The lithium - spodumene process became the core increment in production, and with the gradual commissioning of new projects, the industry's production capacity was steadily released [4] - On the demand side, the downstream lithium - battery industry chain showed a differentiated trend. As of December 19, the production of ternary and lithium - iron batteries decreased by 2.6% and 2.2% respectively from the previous period, and the inventory continued to decline. The production of power batteries decreased by 1.48% from the previous period but maintained a 30.34% year - on - year high growth [4] - In the terminal market, as of December 14, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 57.30% from the previous period but decreased by 7.62% year - on - year, showing short - term fluctuations [4] - In terms of inventory, as of December 18, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased slightly by 0.9% to 110,400 tons, continuing the de - stocking state, and the de - stocking slope slowed down [4] - The total inventory days decreased by 1.1% to 26.2 days. Other links had periodic inventory accumulation, and the social inventory showed an inventory accumulation state, with a 4.98% year - on - year increase and a 54.71% decrease from the previous period. The overall industry inventory remained tight [4] - Macro - policies such as the Fed's interest - rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan, and the series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference provided support for the long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate [5] - Battery manufacturers' collective price increases drove market sentiment to warm up, but one should pay attention to events such as overseas resource/restart news and domestic lithium - mine production - capacity dynamics [5] - The later focus includes the implementation of macro - policies, the progress of production - capacity release, the resilience of downstream demand, the de - stocking slope of sample inventory, and funds and emotions [5]