Group 1 - The investment rating of the coal and coke industry is not mentioned in the report [1][2][3] Group 2 - The core view is that the short - term market sentiment has warmed up and coal prices have stopped falling, but fundamentally, both the supply and demand of coal and coke have declined slightly at a high level, and the inventory pressure is still large, so prices should be treated with caution [3] Group 3 - Yesterday, affected by the news of coal mine production cuts in the production areas, the overall price of coal and coke continued a slight rebound trend. On the spot side, the coke price in the production area has been stable after the third round of price cuts, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton from mid - May to now, and there is still an expectation of price cuts in the later period; coking coal spot also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound [2] - According to Mysteel research, due to environmental protection factors, inspections in multiple areas of Linfen have become stricter. Some pit coal washing plants in Pu County have stopped production, involving a pit coal washing capacity of 8.7 million tons, and the resumption time is uncertain. Some coal mines also have production - stop plans, and the number of passively or actively shut - down coal mines in the region may increase in the short term, resulting in a slight reduction in the supply of coking coal in Linfen [2] - Last week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.86 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 53,000 tons with a slightly slower growth rate; the raw coal inventory was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5 million tons, and the inventory level was still at an absolute high. Recently, the overall profitability of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in start - up, which generally offsets the recent production - cut behavior of coal mines, and the driving force for coal price rebound in terms of fundamentals is still insufficient [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it should be treated bearishly [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs will gradually emerge, and geopolitical factors increase price uncertainty. In the short term, the domestic macro - expectation is weak, and the market trading focus returns to the weak pattern of strong reality + weak expectation. The overall demand maintains a downward trend, and the expected growth rate of the supply side (arrival) increases month - on - month. It is expected that the short - term iron ore price will fluctuate weakly [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Last week, the black series fluctuated narrowly. The supply - demand relationship of finished products showed obvious off - season characteristics of weak supply and demand. The inventory of finished products continued to decline at a low level. Later, attention should be paid to the impact of US household appliance tariffs on the demand for plates. The supply of iron ore shows a seasonal incremental feature. The carbon element continuously gives way to the iron element. The blast furnace profit is not significantly compressed due to the price decline. The domestic demand for iron ore continues to decline slightly but remains at a relatively high level [3] Supply - The current overseas ore shipment increased slightly month - on - month. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly. The shipment from Australia increased significantly, while the shipment from Brazil declined from a high level, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments. Coupled with the fiscal year volume - rushing of Australian BHP and FMG mines, it is expected that the overseas ore shipment will maintain a steady recovery trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3] Demand - The domestic demand has declined from a high level but is still at a high level. The molten iron has declined for five consecutive weeks. The current daily average is 241.61 (month - on - month - 0.19). The blast furnace is mainly under regular maintenance. The current profitability level of steel mills is relatively high and the blast furnace profit level is relatively considerable. Coupled with the full - depth losses of the short - process, it is expected that the molten iron will show an overall high - level decline trend but with a low downward slope. The high demand supports the price [3] Inventory - Due to the increase in overseas shipments, the inventory of imported ore at the steel mill level increased month - on - month. The daily consumption continued to decline but was still at a high level in the same period. With the increase in the arrival volume and the continuous decline in the port clearance volume, the port inventory accumulated this period. Due to the weak market expectation for demand, the restocking expectation is weak. It is expected that the inventory will tend to accumulate later, but due to the high demand, the inventory accumulation pressure is weak [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests treating the market by short - selling on rebounds [3] - The steel market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds based on the current situation [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Steel Industry Operating Data - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 56.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.97 percentage points The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.44%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4161 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 million tons [2] Home Appliance Industry Sales Data - According to Aowei Cloud Network, the offline retail sales of color TVs in May increased by 34.2% year - on - year; among various white - goods categories in May, the offline retail sales of refrigerators, freezers, washing machines, independent dryers, and air conditioners increased by 29.3%, 8.6%, 28.7%, 41.0%, and 38.7% year - on - year respectively [2] Steel Market Analysis - Last week, the steel price moved sideways The good communication between China and the US at the macro - level had a certain impact on the price, but the driving force was insufficient The market mainly traded based on the industry fundamentals The steel fundamentals announced by the Steel Union last week were normal without many highlights Overall, the steel still faced a situation of strong supply and weak demand The steel mill operating rate and pig iron output remained at a high level, but the downstream had entered the off - season High temperature, rainfall, and the high - school entrance examination and college entrance examination affected construction, and there were no signs of short - term improvement in the downstream, and there was even room for further decline [2] Later Focus - Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand situations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views of the Report - For building materials, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidated manner, with the price center moving downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream开工 [3][4] 3. Summary According to Related Contents Building Materials - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel enterprises will shut down for maintenance from mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [2] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province: one mill started to shut down on January 5, most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, and an individual mill is expected to shut down after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The building materials market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, and the price center continues to move downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3] Aluminum - In May, due to concentrated maintenance and production cuts of alumina enterprises, the supply was tight, the price rose, and the theoretical profit expanded to 409 yuan/ton by the end of May. In June, the bauxite price fluctuated, the overall cost of alumina did not change significantly, the production capacity that was previously shut down for maintenance partially resumed, and the new production capacity was released, leading to an increase in the operating capacity [3] - In June, the downstream aluminum processing industry entered a strong off - season atmosphere, with the weekly开工 rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises dropping 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% [3] - On June 12, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream domestic consumption areas was 460,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from Monday and 44,000 tons from last Thursday. The core driving force for inventory reduction is the continuous tight supply, with a decrease in ingot casting volume and low actual arrivals [3] - Overseas macro instability persists. Entering the off - season, the price faces pressure, while inventory reduction supports the price. In the short term, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate within a range [4]

煤焦：库存压力较大 盘面反弹表现乏力 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 煤焦 重要声明： 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 16 日 逻辑：上周，煤焦价格整体低位震荡运行，反弹表现乏力。现货端， 产地焦炭价格第 3 轮调降后暂稳运行，自 5 月中旬至此 3 轮累计下跌 170-185 元/吨，后期仍存降价预期；焦煤现货同样保持弱稳运行，尚未 有反弹表现。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 近期随着煤价的持续下跌，国内煤矿生产延续小幅下滑趋势，但尚未 出现大面积停减产，暂无法改变上游累库现状。上周煤矿端精煤库存 4 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it should be treated bearishly [5] Group 2: Core View - Short - term macro disturbances have intensified again, with the trading focus returning to strong reality and weak expectations. Demand is in a downward trend overall, and the expected growth rate of supply (arrival) is expanding. It is expected that the short - term iron ore price will fluctuate weakly [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs News - On June 12, local time, the US Department of Commerce announced that it will impose additional tariffs on a variety of steel - made household appliances from June 23, including "steel derivatives" such as dishwashers, washing machines, and refrigerators [3] Supply - The current shipment of foreign mines has increased slightly month - on - month. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China has increased significantly, with a notable increase in Australian shipments, a decline in Brazilian shipments from a high level, and small fluctuations in shipments from non - mainstream countries. In June, it is the peak season for foreign mine shipments. With the fiscal year volume - boosting of Australian BHP and FMG mines, it is expected that foreign mine shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will weaken marginally [4] Demand - Domestic demand has declined from a high level but remains at a high level. The molten iron has declined for five consecutive weeks, with an average daily output of 241.61 this period (month - on - month - 0.19). Blast furnaces are mainly under regular maintenance. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high and the blast furnace profit level is relatively good. It is expected that the molten iron will show an overall downward trend from a high level, but the downward slope will be small, and high demand supports the price [5] Inventory - Due to the increase in overseas shipments, the inventory of imported ores at steel mills has increased month - on - month, and the daily consumption has continued to decline but remains at a high level in the same period. With the increase in arrivals and the continuous decline in the port clearance volume, the port inventory has accumulated this period. Due to the weak market demand expectation, the restocking expectation is weak [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View -成材预计震荡整理运行，铝价预计短期偏强震荡 [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Building Materials (Referred to as "Chengcai") -云贵区域短流程建筑 steel 生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量 74.1 万吨；安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂停产影响日产量 1.62 万吨左右 [3][4] -2024 年 12 月 30 日 - 2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降 40.3%，同比增 43.2% [4] -成材在供需双弱格局下价格震荡下行，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 3.2. Aluminum -美国 5 月 PPI 环比涨幅低于预期，通胀数据低暗示美联储可能尽快恢复降息，压制美元，昨日铝价偏强震荡 [3] -全国冶金级氧化铝建成总产能 11082 万吨/年，运行总产能 8901 万吨/年，周度开工率回升 1.57 个百分点至 80.32% [4] -6 月下游铝加工淡季氛围浓，周度开工环比降 0.4 个百分点至 60.9% [4] -6 月 12 日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存 46.0 万吨，较本周一下降 1.7 万吨，环比上周四降 4.4 万吨 [4] -供应端偏紧，铝厂策略调整致铸锭量降，消费地到货量低造成流通货源紧张，消费端韧性消化供应 [4] -短期低到货量支撑库存去化，关注能否刷新 44 万吨年内低点 [4] -海外宏观不稳定，淡季价格有压力，库存去化支撑价格，短期铝价预计区间偏强震荡 [5]

煤焦：需求见顶 盘面反弹表现乏力 晨报 煤焦 投资咨询业务资格： 近期市场关于供应收缩的消息不断，国内煤矿生产延续小幅下滑趋 势，但尚未出现大面积停减产，暂无法改变上游累库现状。本周煤矿端精 煤库存 486 万吨，环比增加 5.3 万吨，增幅略有放缓，但库存水平仍处于 绝对高位。煤焦需求延续小幅回落走势，但下降速度偏缓，本周钢厂日均 铁水产量降至 241.61 万吨，环比上周减少 0.19 万吨，同比去年增加 2.3 万吨。钢厂整体盈利率小幅收窄，引导开工下滑，总体上对冲了煤矿近期 的减产行为，基本面上给与煤价反弹的驱动仍显不足。 原材料：程 鹏 观点：短期市场情绪回暖，对煤价有一定支撑。但基本面上，煤焦供 需均高位小幅下滑，库存压力仍较大，价格反弹缺乏动力。 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、进口煤通关情况。 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the content [1][2][3] Core Viewpoint - The report suggests treating steel prices with a strategy of trying short positions on rebounds [3] Summary by Relevant Information Steel Production Data - The production of rebar decreased by 108,900 tons to 2.0757 million tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 41,000 tons to 3.2465 million tons, and the total production of the five major steel products decreased by 215,300 tons to 8.5885 million tons [2] Steel Inventory Data - The total inventory of rebar decreased by 124,000 tons to 5.5808 million tons, the total inventory of hot-rolled coil increased by 47,700 tons to 3.4541 million tons, and the total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 92,500 tons to 13.5456 million tons [2] Steel Apparent Demand Data - The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 90,600 tons to 2.1997 million tons, the apparent demand for hot-rolled coil decreased by 10,400 tons to 3.1988 million tons, and the total apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 140,700 tons to 8.681 million tons [2] Real Estate Transaction Data - In May, the total transaction (signing) area of newly-built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 6.4404 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 7.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.1%; the total transaction (signing) area of second-hand housing was 9.1832 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 15.2% and a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2] Steel Price Data - On June 12, the ex-factory price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan decreased by 30 yuan after noon, reported at 2,890 yuan per ton [2] Market Analysis - The finished steel fluctuated and declined yesterday, giving back the gains formed due to macro - positive factors the previous day. The weekly supply, apparent demand, and inventory all declined, with no obvious overall contradictions. The main factor affecting steel prices is still downstream demand. It has entered the off - season, and there is little chance of effective improvement in the short term, with further decline possible. It is recommended to try short positions on rebounds [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it should be treated bearishly [4] Core View of the Report - In the short term, macro disturbances weaken, trading focus returns to strong reality and weak expectations. Demand shows a downward trend overall, and the expected growth rate of supply (arrival) is expected to expand. It is predicted that the iron ore price will fluctuate weakly in the short term, lacking obvious upward drivers [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Recently, the trading focus of the black - series market is still dominated by the pessimistic expectation of terminal demand. The apparent demand of finished products shows off - season characteristics. Carbon elements continue to give benefits to iron elements. The profit of blast furnaces has not been significantly compressed due to the decline in finished product prices but has instead expanded. The valley - electricity of short - process steelmaking is in a large - scale loss, and the demand for iron ore remains resilient [3] Supply - The shipment of foreign mines increased slightly this period. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly, with a significant increase in Australian shipments, while Brazilian shipments declined from a high level, and shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. June is the peak season for foreign mine shipments. Coupled with the fiscal - year volume - rushing of Australian BHP and FMG mines, it is expected that foreign mine shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3] Demand - Domestic demand has declined from a high level but remains at a high level. Hot metal production has declined for four consecutive weeks, but the decline rate has narrowed. The current level of steel mill profitability is relatively high. It is expected that hot metal production will show an overall downward trend at a high level, but the downward slope will be relatively gentle, and high demand supports prices [3] Inventory - Currently, steel mills maintain low - inventory management, and the inventory - to - sales ratio has decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. Domestic demand is still relatively high, and port inventories are continuously decreasing in the short term. As the arrival volume increases, it is expected that port inventories will accumulate slightly or remain relatively stable in the later stage. Due to the weak market expectation for demand, the expectation of restocking is weak [3]