研究报告 橡胶周报 宏观偏弱供需宽松，胶价维持震荡偏弱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：张正卯 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 21 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 14510-15195 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格在周一冲高回落之后维持偏弱运行， 总体小幅下跌。 综上所述，在宏观情绪偏空，同时基本面仍然偏弱的情况 下，预计胶价短期内维持震荡偏弱运行，但是下方空间有限， 可逢低考虑轻仓试多。 后续重点关注宏观面和政策面的影响、主产区天气变化情 况、国内外主产区割胶情况、橡胶进口情况、需求变化情况和 库存变化情况。 【操作策略】 预计天然橡胶期货主力合约短期内或将维持震荡偏弱运 行，但是下方空间有限。 操作上，建议暂时观望为主，激进投资者可考虑逢低择机 轻仓试多。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确 ...

宏观面呈现高度不确定性，建议短线操作 研究报告 甲醇周报 华龙期货投资咨询部 能化研究员：宋鹏 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 14 日星期一 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周宏观面受美国加征关税影响，甲醇期货大幅波动，截 至周五下午收盘，甲醇加权较上周下跌 3.29%，报收 2348 元/ 吨。 【基本面】 上周，国内甲醇企业复产多于检修，甲醇供给继续增加。 需求方面，上周甲醇下游产能利用率总体平稳，甲醇样本生产 企业待发订单量再次上升，显示甲醇需求仍然平稳。综合来看， 目前甲醇供需依然偏弱，但是压力不大。上周甲醇样本生产企 业库存再次小幅上升，港口样本库存继续下降。利润方面，上 周甲醇生产企业利润继续下降，但是利润仍较为可观，生产企 业多积极调整价格出货。 【后市展望】 基本面方面：下周由于复产多于检修，甲醇供给或继续增 量，需求方面：预计甲醇下游需求仍延续平稳态势。库存方面： 下周甲醇生产企业库存预计小幅上升，港口库存预计 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - Last week, IF2504 closed at 3732.2 points, down 129.4 points or 3.35% from the previous week; IH2504 closed at 2609.0 points, down 55.4 points or 2.08%; IC2504 closed at 5555.8 points, down 266.6 points or 4.58%; IM2504 closed at 5835.0 points, down 333.4 points or 5.4% [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - In March 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the average CPI from January to March decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year [6] - In March 2025, the national producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.5% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month; the purchase price index of industrial producers decreased by 2.4% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. In the first quarter, both PPI and the purchase price index decreased by 2.3% compared with the same period last year [9] - As of the end of March 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) was 326.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7%; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%; the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.07 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. In the first quarter, net cash injection was 249.8 billion yuan. In the first quarter, RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan [12][13] 3. Valuation Analysis - As of April 13, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 27.48 times, with a quantile of 59.41%, and the PB was 1.76 times; the PE of the SSE 300 Index was 12.09 times, with a quantile of 38.04%, and the PB was 1.29 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.5 times, with a quantile of 58.24%, and the PB was 1.17 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 36.08 times, with a quantile of 37.06%, and the PB was 2.00 times [15] 4. Other Data - The equity - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market return rate and the treasury bond yield rate. There are two formulas for calculating the equity - bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [20][23] 5. Core View - Affected by the recent "reciprocal tariff" policy, the market has fluctuated sharply. It is recommended that investors operate cautiously. The market may show a volatile rebound next week. Given the market uncertainty, investors can also consider using a small amount of options for trading [26]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, the global financial market is highly volatile due to the trade war. The enhanced expectation of a global economic recession and the sharp decline in crude oil prices exert significant pressure on the futures prices of oils and fats. The main short - term influencing factor is trade - war policies, but the probability of further escalation is low. In the long - term, the global supply - demand relationship determines the trend of oils and fats. The Malaysian palm oil report is neutral, and the USDA report is basically neutral. There is a high probability of wide - range fluctuations in the prices of the three major domestic oils and fats [9][33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival holiday, the global financial market was highly volatile, and the futures prices of oils and fats rebounded after hitting bottom. For the whole week, the Y2509 soybean oil contract fell 2.71% to close at 7,680 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract fell 4.48% to close at 8,196 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract fell 2.28% to close at 9,354 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Important Information - **Palm oil**: On April 10, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) reported that Malaysia's palm oil production in March was 1,387,193 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.76%. Exports were 1,005,547 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91%. Imports were 121,886 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.51%. Inventories were 1,562,586 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%. Malaysian palm oil prices fell 2.66% [7][31]. - **Soybean oil**: The USDA's April supply - demand report showed that the estimated soybean production in the US for the 2024/25 season was 4.366 billion bushels, and the estimated year - end inventory was 375 million bushels. The global soybean production in the 2024/25 season was estimated at 420.58 million tons, and the global ending soybean inventory was 122.47 million tons. US soybeans rose 7.78% this week [7]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of April 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,040 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of April 11, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [11]. - As of April 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [13]. 3.4 Other Data - As of April 4, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 59,000 tons to 897,000 tons. On April 9, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 357,000 tons [17]. - As of April 11, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,273,590 tons [22]. - As of April 11, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 360 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [23]. - As of April 11, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 502 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [24]. - As of April 11, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 40 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [26]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival holiday, affected by the trade war triggered by the US imposing tariffs globally, the global financial market was highly volatile, and the futures prices of oils and fats rebounded after hitting bottom. The weekly performance of the contracts was consistent with the abstract. The Malaysian palm oil data and the US soybean data were also consistent with the important information section [31]. - The short - term and long - term influencing factors of oils and fats prices are consistent with the core view [33].

螺纹周报 研究报告 基本面矛盾不明显，宏观面仍是影响盘面主要变量 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | 报告日期：2025 年 4 | 月 | 14 | 日星期一 | 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约下跌 3.21% 基本面：据我的钢铁网数据，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.28%， 环比增加 0.15%，同比增加 4.87%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.19%，环比增 加 0.56%，同比增加 6.14%；钢厂盈利率 53.68%，环比减少 1.73%，同比 增加 15.58%；日均铁水产量 240.22 万吨，环比增加 1.49 万吨。 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 14 日星期一 后市展 ...

研究报告 橡胶周报 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：张正卯 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 14 日星期一 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 短期或有震荡反复，未来仍将偏弱运行 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 投资咨询业务资格： 电话：0931-8582647 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 14035-15580 元/吨 之间运行，期货价格在对等关税影响下周一跌停开盘，周二继 续大幅下挫，之后震荡反复，总体大幅下跌。 截至 2025 年 4 月 11 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 14995 元/吨，当周下跌 1300 点，跌幅 7.98%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格在关税影响下周一跌 停开盘，周二继续大幅下挫，之后震荡反复，总体大幅下跌。 展望后市，从宏观面来看，上周特朗普"对等关税"政策 多次加码，中国强硬反制，全球市场波动剧烈。国内方面，经 济景气水平稳步好转，以旧换新政策持续激发市场消费潜力。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Last week, the price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures AL2505 fluctuated downward, ranging from around 20,335 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,635 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum futures price dropped significantly and then gradually entered an oscillatory trend, with the contract price running around 2,300 - 2,427 US dollars/ton. - China's major economic data is gradually stabilizing, and the expectation of introducing more stimulus policies is increasing. The inventory of alumina continues to be at an ultra - low level, while its production capacity has increased significantly and the operating rate has decreased slightly. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the operating rate continues to rise. The national aluminum rod inventory has decreased significantly, and the inventory level is at a relatively high level in recent years. The Shanghai aluminum inventory continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a relatively low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly. - China will increase the tariff on US goods from 84% to 125%. At the current tariff level, US goods exported to China have no market acceptance possibility, and the impact of tariffs may weaken. Aluminum prices may mainly show a wide - range oscillatory trend. [3][5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures AL2505 fluctuated downward, ranging from around 20,335 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,635 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum futures price dropped significantly and then gradually entered an oscillatory trend, with the contract price running around 2,300 - 2,427 US dollars/ton. [8][12] 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of April 11, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 19,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 19,885 yuan/ton, 20,105 yuan/ton, 19,920 yuan/ton, and 19,885 yuan/ton respectively. As of April 11, 2025, the premium or discount of electrolytic aluminum was maintained at around a premium of 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [15] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **Alumina Inventory**: As of April 10, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 0.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.7 million tons from the previous period. The inventory in Lianyungang was 0 million tons, in Bayuquan was 0.3 million tons, and in Qingdao Port was 0.2 million tons. The total domestic inventory was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years. [21] - **Aluminum Rod Inventory**: As of April 10, 2025, the total national aluminum rod inventory was 223,800 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons compared with the previous period. In terms of regions, the inventory in Foshan was 132,000 tons, in Wuxi was 38,500 tons, and in Nanchang was 16,500 tons. From a seasonal perspective, the national inventory was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years. [25] 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Global Visible Inventory**: As of April 11, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 205,627 tons, a decrease of 9,447 tons from the previous week. As of April 10, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 446,325 tons, a decrease of 3,175 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 43.82%. - **Domestic Invisible Inventory**: As of April 10, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 697,000 tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 23,000 tons, in Wuxi was 251,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 13,000 tons, in Foshan was 250,000 tons, in Tianjin was 20,000 tons, in Shenyang was 1,000 tons, in Gongyi was 120,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 11,000 tons. [28] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Fed officials have indicated that they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates in the short term, and the policy divergence between the Fed and the US government is emerging. China's major economic data is gradually stabilizing, and the expectation of introducing more stimulus policies is increasing. The inventory of alumina continues to be at an ultra - low level, while its production capacity has increased significantly and the operating rate has decreased slightly. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the operating rate continues to rise. The national aluminum rod inventory has decreased significantly, and the inventory level is at a relatively high level in recent years. The Shanghai aluminum inventory continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a relatively low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly. [5][38] 3.6 Future Outlook - China will increase the tariff on US goods from 84% to 125%. At the current tariff level, US goods exported to China have no market acceptance possibility, and the impact of tariffs may weaken. Aluminum prices may mainly show a wide - range oscillatory trend. [6][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol weakened marginally, and methanol futures declined significantly. As of the afternoon close on April 3rd, methanol weighted dropped 3.23% from the previous week, closing at 2,428 yuan/ton. Next week, the fundamentals of methanol are expected to weaken further, and medium - term bearish factors are accumulating. With the resumption of domestic methanol plants and increased imports, combined with the arrival of the downstream maintenance season in the second quarter, the supply - demand balance in the far - month is likely to be loose. Considering the significant adverse changes in the macro - environment, methanol futures may continue to fall, and short - selling opportunities in methanol can be considered. Spot enterprises can also look into selling hedging opportunities for methanol [5][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the domestic methanol market showed a weak trend due to supply recovery, with obvious regional coordinated declines. The weekly average price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2,150 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton (-3.07%) from the previous week; the weekly average price in Taicang was 2,584 yuan/ton, down 97.8 yuan/ton (-3.65%); the weekly average price in the gas - based production area of Sichuan and Chongqing was 2,429.17 yuan/ton, down 22.83 yuan/ton (-0.93%). In the futures market, methanol weighted fell 3.23%, closing at 2,428 yuan/ton [12][13] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Production - From March 28th to April 3rd, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,873,995 tons, an increase of 54,650 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 86.21%, a 3.00% increase from the previous week. There were more restarts than maintenance in domestic methanol plants this week, leading to the increase in capacity utilization [14] 3.2.2 Downstream Capacity Utilization - As of April 3rd, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of some methanol downstream products were as follows: the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Yangtze River Delta was 78.93%, up 1.65 percentage points from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 7.51%; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the capacity utilization rate of methane chloride was 75.14%, down from the previous week; the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate was 52.50%, up slightly from the previous week [18] 3.2.3 Orders to be Fulfilled - As of April 2nd, 2025, the orders to be fulfilled by Chinese methanol sample enterprises were 223,300 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons (5.43%) from the previous period. The orders to be fulfilled by enterprises in the northwest decreased by 3.73% week - on - week, while those in the east increased by 6.60%. The orders to be fulfilled by sample enterprises in the north remained stable, those in the central region decreased by 34.90%, those in the southwest decreased by 5.32%, and those in the northeast decreased by 22.22% [21] 3.2.4 Enterprise Inventory - As of April 2nd, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 311,500 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons (4.95%) from the previous period. The inventory of enterprises in the northwest decreased by 9.03%, while that in the east increased by 3.31%. The inventory of sample enterprises in the north increased by 4.20%, that in the central region increased by 8.45%, that in the southwest decreased by 3.95%, and that in the northeast decreased by 2.94% [27] 3.2.5 Port Inventory - As of April 2nd, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 616,100 tons, a decrease of 157,700 tons (-20.38%) from the previous period. The ports continued to significantly reduce inventory, with slow unloading of foreign vessels and good提货 at major terminals in Jiangsu and stable demand in Zhejiang. The ports in South China also significantly reduced inventory [32] 3.2.6 Profit - From March 28th to April 3rd, 2025, the weekly average profit of domestic methanol sample enterprises declined overall. The average profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol in Hebei was 417 yuan/ton, down 8.75% from the previous week; the average profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 234.70 yuan/ton, down 14.69%; the average profit of coal - based methanol in Shandong was 260.70 yuan/ton, down 12.55%; the average profit of coal - based methanol in Shanxi was 327.10 yuan/ton, down 6.83%; the average profit of natural - gas - based methanol in the southwest was - 130 yuan/ton, down 8.00% [33] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - Next week, China's estimated methanol production is about 1.8836 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 86.65%, an increase from the current period. Domestic methanol demand may decline. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 316,500 tons, with little change from the current period. The port methanol inventory is expected to change little, and the focus is on the unloading speed of foreign vessels. Overall, methanol futures and spot prices are likely to continue to be weak [39][40]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp decline in the US stock market has put significant downward pressure on the A-share market. The US announced a "reciprocal tariff" policy, leading to a sharp drop in the three major US stock indexes on the 4th. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below the 40,000-point mark, and the Nasdaq Composite Index entered a technical bear market. Against this backdrop, the A-share market will face huge downward pressure on Monday [28][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, IF2504 closed at 3,861.6 points, down 47.2 points or 1.21% from the previous week; IH2504 closed at 2,664.4 points, down 16.2 points or 0.6%; IC2504 closed at 5,822.4 points, down 47.2 points or 0.8%; IM2504 closed at 6,168.4 points, down 44.2 points or 0.71% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing sector's prosperity [7]. - In March, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, showing an accelerated expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [10]. - In March, the Composite PMI Output Index was 51.4%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall acceleration in the expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities [12]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of April 7, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 28.5 times, with a quantile of 64.1%, and the PB was 1.85 times; the PE of the SSE 300 Index was 12.42 times, with a quantile of 48.04%, and the PB was 1.33 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.69 times, with a quantile of 63.73%, and the PB was 1.2 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 38.3 times, with a quantile of 50.39%, and the PB was 2.13 times [17]. 3.4 Other Data - The equity-bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating the equity-bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price-earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [25][26]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - The US stock market experienced a sharp decline due to the "reciprocal tariff" policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.50%, the S&P 500 Index fell 5.97%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.82%. The Nasdaq entered a technical bear market. Against this background, the A-share market will face huge downward pressure on Monday [28][29].

沪铝或维持震荡偏弱运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 研究报告 铝周报 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 7 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周，沪铝期货主力合约 AL2505 价格以震荡下行行情为主。 价格范围在 20335 元/吨附近至最高 20635 元/吨左右。 【基本面分析】 美国关税大超预期，市场避险情绪升温。电解铝现货价格或 维持震荡偏弱运行，升贴水维持在平水状态。氧化铝库存小幅下 降，库存水平处于历史低位。全国铝棒库存继续下降，库存水平 仍处于历史高位。沪铝库存下降明显，库存水平处于近年来较低 位。LME 铝库存小幅下降，注销仓单占比小幅上升。 【后市展望】 短期内，铝价或以震荡偏弱趋势为主。 （一）期货价格 根据上海期货交易所数据统计，上周，沪铝期货主力合约 AL2505 价格以震荡下行行情 为主。价格范围在 2033 ...