Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the rebar 2510 contract rose 1.52%. Although the molten iron output decreased slightly, the supply remained at a high level, while the demand faced seasonal decline pressure. Driven by the macro - factors, steel prices rebounded slightly last week. Recently, steel prices are mainly stable and volatile, and there may still be a small rebound space [4][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Analysis - As of May 16, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [9]. Important Market Information - The Chinese side believes that the US practice of imposing 232 tariffs on imported automobiles, steel, aluminum and launching a 232 investigation on imported drugs is a typical act of unilateralism and protectionism, which not only damages the rights and interests of other countries and undermines the multilateral trading system based on rules, but also does no good to the development of its own industries. The Chinese side urges the US to stop the 232 tariff measures as soon as possible [14]. Supply - side Situation - According to Mysteel data, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 84.15%, a decrease of 0.47% month - on - month and an increase of 2.65% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.76%, a decrease of 0.33% month - on - month and an increase of 3.19% year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 7.36% year - on - year; the daily average molten iron output was 244.77 million tons, a decrease of 0.87 million tons month - on - month. The overall operating rate of 87 section steel production lines in Tangshan last week was 55.93%, an increase of 13.56% month - on - month, and the section steel capacity utilization rate was 51.68%, an increase of 3.86% month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines last week was 89.3%, a decrease of 0.7% month - on - month. The daily average output of raw coal was 200.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons month - on - month, and the raw coal inventory was 606.8 million tons, an increase of 27.0 million tons month - on - month [4][33]. Demand - side Situation - In April 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 51.9, a decrease of 1.5% month - on - month; the current value of the steel circulation industry purchasing manager index of Lange Steel was 48.8, a decrease of 3.8% month - on - month [22]. Inventory - side Situation No specific inventory data was provided in the content other than the inventory - related section title. Fundamental Analysis - According to the data of the Pilbara Ports Authority (PPA) in Australia, the iron ore exports from Port Hedland decreased to 46.6938 billion tons in April 2025 from 50.6610 billion tons in March; the spodumene concentrate exports decreased to 109,789 tons from 143,640 tons in March. Among them, the iron ore exports from Port Hedland to China in April were 41.1047 billion tons, compared with 41.1912 billion tons in March [33]. 后市展望 - Last week, the molten iron output decreased slightly, but the supply remained at a high level, while the demand faced seasonal decline pressure. Driven by the macro - factors, steel prices rebounded slightly last week. Recently, steel prices are mainly stable and volatile, and there may still be a small rebound space [4][34]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to treat the market as stable, volatile and rebounding [5][35].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of edible oils fluctuated and consolidated. The MPOB report on palm oil was bearish, while the USDA report was bullish. Due to changes in the US renewable fuel policy, the demand for biodiesel changed, causing significant fluctuations in US soybean oil. With the fast planting progress of US soybeans and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans, the domestic supply of soybean oil will gradually shift from tight to loose. During the palm oil production season, the supply - demand of palm oil is expected to become marginally looser. Recently, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory remains high with sufficient supply. As the China - US trade negotiation makes substantial progress, the market's expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations has increased, which may be bearish for the domestic rapeseed market. Recently, market sentiment has been volatile, and it is highly likely that the prices of the three major domestic edible oils will fluctuate widely driven by trade policies, overseas biodiesel policies, and the supply of oilseeds [9][31][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Analysis - As of May 15, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,240 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of May 15, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [11]. - As of May 15, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,330 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [12]. 2. Other Data - As of May 9, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 0.50 million tons to 70.60 million tons. On May 14, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 0.80 million tons to 32.40 million tons [16]. - As of May 15, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 5,542,630 tons [19]. - As of May 15, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 444 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [20][21]. - As of May 15, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 34 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [23]. 3. Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of edible oils fluctuated and consolidated. The Y2509 soybean oil contract fell 0.33% to close at 7,754 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 1.24% to close at 7,984 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract fell 0.83% to close at 9,277 yuan/ton [29]. - According to the MPOB report, Malaysia's palm oil production in April was 1.686 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.52%, higher than Reuters' expectation of 1.62 million tons; exports were 1.102 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.62%, in line with Reuters' expectation of 1.1 million tons; inventory was 1.865 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.37%, higher than Reuters' expectation of 1.79 million tons. Malaysian palm oil rose 0.26% [29]. - According to the USDA's May supply - demand report, the US soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season is 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; the estimated yield per acre is 52.5 bushels, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, and the soybean output is estimated to be 4.34 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. The US soybean crushing volume in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 2.49 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%; the export volume is expected to drop to 1.815 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%; the ending inventory of soybeans is expected to be 295 million bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7%. The inventory - to - use ratio is estimated to be 6.7%, lower than 8.0% in the 2024/25 season, indicating a tightening supply. The report predicts that the global soybean output in the 2025/26 season will be 427 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.95 million tons, mainly contributed by the increase in Brazil's soybean output; imports will be 186 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.66 million tons; crushing volume will be 366 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3 million tons; exports will be 188 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56 million tons. The global ending inventory of soybeans is 124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons. US soybeans fell 0.12% this week [30].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The lead price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [5][38]. 3) Summary According to the Table of Contents a. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2506 of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated between around 16,835 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [2][9]. - Last week, the price of LME lead futures contracts fluctuated between 1,963 - 2,004 US dollars/ton [12]. b. Spot Analysis - As of May 16, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market was 16,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,780 yuan/ton, 16,770 yuan/ton, and 16,770 yuan/ton respectively. The 1 lead premium/discount was around a discount of - 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. c. Supply and Demand Situation - As of May 9, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 500 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 1,100 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of March 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 73.7 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. In March 2025, China imported 116.03 thousand tons of lead concentrates, an increase of 14.52 thousand tons from the previous month (a 14.3% increase) and an increase of 48.24 thousand tons from the same period last year (a 71.2% increase) [21]. d. Inventory Situation - As of May 16, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 55,472 tons, an increase of 5,968 tons from the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 248,850 tons, a decrease of 1,825 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 49.85% [30]. e. Fundamental Analysis - After the implementation of the mutual tariff reduction between China and the United States, the impact of tariff policy adjustments on lead prices is gradually weakening. The lead spot price has slightly rebounded, and the lead discount has widened. The lead processing fee is gradually recovering from the bottom but remains at a low level. Lead production continues to grow, and the operating rate of lead enterprises is gradually rising. The production of electric bicycles continues to grow, and the demand for lead - acid batteries may increase. The Shanghai lead inventory has increased significantly, and the inventory level is at a low level in recent years. The LME lead inventory continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a high level in recent years [4][37]. f. Outlook for the Future - The lead price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [5][38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures rose after reaching a high and maintained low - level volatility, with a slight overall increase. In the future, due to factors such as China and the US significantly reducing tariffs on each other, supply support, fair terminal demand, and a slight increase in inventory, the market has a mix of long and short factors, and the trend is not clear. It is expected that the futures market will maintain range - bound volatility in the short term [7][84] - The report suggests that investors should temporarily wait and see, while aggressive investors can consider lightly opening long positions at low prices [8][85] Summary by Directory Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 fluctuated between 14,555 - 15,310 yuan/ton. The futures price rose after reaching a high and maintained range - bound volatility, with a slight overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of May 16, 2025, the contract was reported at 14,905 yuan/ton, up 285 points or 1.95% for the week [6][11] Spot Price - As of May 16, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheets (RSS3) was 20,500 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [17] - As of May 16, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,320 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton from the previous week [21] Basis and Spread - Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan State - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the spot price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two expanded slightly. As of May 16, 2025, the basis was maintained at 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton from the previous week [26] - As of May 16, 2025, both the domestic and international prices of natural rubber increased significantly compared to the previous week [30] Important Market Information - In April, the US unadjusted CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected for the third consecutive month, reaching the lowest level since February 2021; the core CPI was flat at 2.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. Traders continued to bet that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates for the first time in September and for the second time in October [31] - On May 14, the US adjusted its additional tariffs on China, canceling 91% of the additional tariffs on Chinese goods, implementing a 34% reciprocal tariff measure, suspending the imposition of 24% of the tariffs for 90 days, and retaining the remaining 10% of the tariffs. It also lowered the ad - valorem tax rate on small international mail parcels from China from 120% to 54% and cancelled the measure to increase the specific tax from 100 US dollars to 200 US dollars per piece, which was originally scheduled to take effect on June 1 [31] - In April, the US PPI unexpectedly fell by 0.5% month - on - month, with service prices dropping by 0.7%, the largest single - month decline since 2009. Retail sales only increased by 0.1% month - on - month, significantly lower than the strong 1.7% increase in March. Manufacturing output decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, the first decline in six months. The May housing builder confidence index also dropped to the lowest level since the end of 2023 [32] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US remained stable, with 229,000 claims in the previous week, in line with market expectations. The number of continued jobless claims increased by 9,000 to 1.881 million in the previous week [32] - Moody's downgraded the US rating from AAA to AA1 and adjusted the outlook from negative to stable. It stated that the downgrade reflected the increase in government debt, and it was expected that by 2035, the US federal debt burden would rise to 134% of GDP and the federal government deficit would reach 9% of GDP [32] - From May 10th to 11th, China - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland. The two sides reached important consensuses and made substantial progress, agreeing to establish a China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism. On May 12th, a joint statement was released, stating that both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and China canceling 91% of the counter - tariffs accordingly [33] - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariff measures on imported goods originating from the US, reducing the tariff rate from 34% to 10%, suspending the implementation of 24% of the additional tariffs on the US for 90 days, and stopping the implementation of the additional tariff measures stipulated in Announcements No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 [34] - In 2024, the average annual salary of employees in non - private urban units nationwide was 124,110 yuan, with a nominal increase of 2.8% and a comparable - caliber increase of 2.6%; the average annual salary of employees in private urban units was 69,476 yuan, with a nominal increase of 1.7% and a comparable - caliber increase of 4% [34] - In April, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.755 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%, and the export of new - energy passenger cars was 189,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 44.2% [35] - In April, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.251 million and 1.226 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 43.8% and 44.2% respectively. In April, automobile exports were 517,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. From January to April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively [35] - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared to 82,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to April, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing the same level year - on - year [36] - Since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative number of subsidy applications has exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the number of subsidy applications for automobile trade - in in 2025 reached 3.225 million, with new - energy vehicles accounting for more than 53% [36] - According to the ANRPC's March 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in March was expected to increase by 0.9% to 798,000 tons, a decrease of 15.6% from the previous month; the consumption was expected to decrease by 0.1% to 1.36 million tons, an increase of 14.6% from the previous month. In 2025, the global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 0.4% year - on - year to 14.897 million tons, and the consumption was expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year to 15.59 million tons [36][37] Supply - side Situation - As of March 31, 2025, the production in the main producing areas of Indonesia increased slightly compared to the previous month; the production in Vietnam decreased slightly; the production in Malaysia and India decreased significantly; the production in Thailand decreased significantly; the main producing areas in China were gradually starting to tap rubber and the output was increasing. The total production of the main natural rubber producing countries in March 2025 was 489,300 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [41] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% [45] - As of March 31, 2025, China's cumulative synthetic rubber production was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [48] - As of March 31, 2025, China's imports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 920 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [51] Demand - side Situation - As of May 15, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 78.33%, an increase of 19.98% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.09%, an increase of 20.32% from the previous week [54] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6188 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.88% [58] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile sales were 2.5896 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.18% [61] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 87,667 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6.52% and a month - on - month decrease of 21.36% [66] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [69] - As of March 31, 2025, China's exports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [75] Inventory - side Situation - As of May 16, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,270 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from the previous week [82] - As of May 11, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons or 0.05%. Among them, the total social inventory of dark rubber was 830,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%; the total social inventory of light rubber was 525,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1% [82] - As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 618,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,500 tons or 0.73%. Among them, the bonded area inventory was 90,000 tons, an increase of 5.89%; the general trade inventory was 528,700 tons, a decrease of 0.09% [82] Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the main natural rubber producing areas in the world are gradually starting to tap rubber. Recently, the main producing areas at home and abroad have been affected by bad weather, which has affected the tapping work, resulting in less raw material output and firm prices, strengthening cost support. In April 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 685,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.98%; the cumulative imports from January to April were 2.869 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23.2% [83] - On the demand side, last week, the operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires rebounded significantly. However, the enterprises' sales performance was poor, and the finished - product inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a historical high. In the terminal automobile market, in April, China's monthly automobile production and sales increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month; the heavy - truck market sales increased by 6.52% year - on - year but decreased by 21.36% month - on - month; the cumulative heavy - truck sales from January to April were the same as the previous year, indicating fair terminal consumption. The trade - in policy in various regions of China continued to promote terminal consumption [83] - In terms of inventory, last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, while China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to increase slightly [83] Market Outlook - Last week, the price of the main domestic natural rubber futures contract rose after reaching a high and maintained low - level volatility, with a slight overall increase. In the future, the market has a mix of long and short factors, and the trend is not clear. It is expected that the futures market will maintain range - bound volatility in the short term. Key factors to focus on in the future include the impact of the macro and policy aspects, the weather changes in the main producing areas, the tapping situation in the main producing areas at home and abroad, the rubber import situation, the demand change situation, and the inventory change situation [7][84] Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will maintain range - bound volatility this week. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see, while aggressive investors can consider lightly opening long positions at low prices [8][85]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The A - share market is expected to continue its trend of oscillating upward or having a strong oscillation. Investors are advised to closely monitor market dynamics, flexibly adjust their position allocations, and reasonably control their position levels to seize market opportunities and cope with potential market fluctuations [22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - Last week, IF2505 closed at 3840.2 points, up 88.2 points from the previous week with a decline of 2.35%. IH2505 closed at 2683.6 points, up 56.4 points with a gain of 2.15%. IC2505 closed at 5702.4 points, up 112.2 points with a gain of 2.01%. IM2505 closed at 6056.2 points, up 150.8 points with a gain of 2.55% [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. The average CPI from January to April decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year [5] - In April 2025, the national producer price index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The purchase price index for industrial producers decreased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month. From January to April, the average PPI and purchase price index for industrial producers decreased by 2.4% compared with the same period of the previous year [8] 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of May 10, the PE of the CSI 500 index is 28.8 times, the quantile is 66.27%, and the PB is 1.77 times. The PE of the SSE 300 index is 12.44 times, the quantile is 50.2%, and the PB is 1.3 times. The PE of the SSE 50 index is 10.84 times, the quantile is 70.98%, and the PB is 1.19 times. The PE of the CSI 1000 index is 40.58 times, the quantile is 61.57%, and the PB is 2.05 times [11] 3.4 Other Data - The equity - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield. There are two formulas: Formula 1 (reciprocal of price - earnings ratio): Equity - bond yield spread=(1/Index static price - earnings ratio) - 10 - year treasury bond yield; Formula 2 (dividend yield): Equity - bond yield spread = 10 - year treasury bond yield - Index static dividend yield [19] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - In the previous trading cycle, the A - share market showed an oscillating upward trend. Sino - US trade negotiations were held over the weekend. Next week, attention should be paid to the impact of these negotiations on the market and investment opportunities derived from them [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures rose slightly after reaching a high and then falling back, maintaining a low - level oscillation. In the short term, rubber prices will continue to be under pressure due to weak demand expectations affected by the trade war and a supply - demand imbalance, but the downside space is limited. The market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the impact of the macro and policy aspects, weather changes in major producing areas, rubber tapping in domestic and foreign major producing areas, rubber import, demand changes, and inventory changes [7][84] - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now, and aggressive investors can consider range trading [9][85] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2509 of natural rubber fluctuated between 14,600 - 15,060 yuan/ton. The futures price reached a high and then fell back, maintaining a low - level oscillation with a slight overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of May 9, 2025, the main contract RU2509 closed at 14,620 yuan/ton, up 65 points or 0.45% for the week [6][13] Spot Price - As of May 9, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 20,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 15,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [18] - As of May 9, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,300 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars/ton from the previous week [22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly. As of May 9, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 20 yuan/ton, narrowing by 35 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [27] Important Market Information - The US economic data was relatively strong last week, and the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged. In China, the expansion pace of enterprise production and business activities slowed down, and three departments issued a package of financial policies, but the market reaction was mediocre [7][84] - In April, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks improved year - on - year, and the terminal consumption performance was okay. The trade - in policy continued to be promoted, stimulating the continuous strengthening of the auto market [7][84] - The trade deficit in the US in March increased by 14% month - on - month, reaching a record 140.5 billion US dollars. The export of agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and beef was severely impacted [33] - The initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 13,000 to 228,000, and the continuing jobless claims in the previous week decreased by 28,000 to 1.879 million, both better than market expectations [33] - The labor productivity in the US in the first quarter decreased by 0.8% year - on - year in annualized quarterly terms, and the unit labor cost jumped by 5.7%, the largest increase in a year [33] - The three - department financial policy includes a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in the policy interest rate, a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan" [34] - In April, the CPI in China increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.1% year - on - year; the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.5% year - on - year; the PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year [35] - The second - hand housing transaction volume in key cities increased year - on - year in April. The auto market continued to strengthen, and the price war pressure was relatively reduced [36][37] Supply - side Situation - As of March 31, 2025, the production in the main producing areas of Indonesia increased slightly from the previous month; the production in the main producing areas of Vietnam decreased slightly; the production in the main producing areas of Malaysia and India decreased significantly; the production in the main producing areas of Thailand decreased significantly; the main producing areas in China started tapping gradually and the output was increasing. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in March 2025 was 489,300 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [42] - As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1%; the cumulative output was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [46][49] - As of March 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [52] Demand - side Situation - As of May 8, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 58.35%, a decrease of 14.08% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 44.77%, a decrease of 11.47% from the previous week [55] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.0058 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.86% and a month - on - month increase of 42.93%; the monthly sales volume was 2.9155 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% and a month - on - month increase of 36.97% [59][62] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - duty truck sales volume was 111,483 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 3.69% and a month - on - month increase of 37.02% [67] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [70] - As of March 31, 2025, China's export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [75] Inventory - side Situation - As of May 9, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,500 tons, a decrease of 270 tons from the previous week [81] - As of May 4, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,700 tons or 0.12%. The total social inventory of dark rubber in China was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%; the total social inventory of light rubber in China was 530,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [81] - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. The bonded area inventory was 85,000 tons, an increase of 4.3%; the general trade inventory was 529,200 tons, an increase of 0.38% [81] Fundamental Analysis - From the supply side, the main natural rubber - producing areas around the world are gradually starting tapping. The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in China in April 2025 was 685,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.98%; the cumulative import volume from January to April was 2.869 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23.2%. The supply side exerts certain pressure on rubber prices [83] - From the demand side, the operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased significantly last week. The finished product inventory is at a historical high, and the market performance is weak. In the terminal auto market, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China in April increased by 9.4% year - on - year and decreased by 19% month - on - month; the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks from January to April was flat year - on - year, and the terminal consumption performance was okay [83] - In terms of inventory, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly last week; China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both increased slightly, and the inventory level is still high [83]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of aluminum is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [5][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2506 of Shanghai aluminum futures mainly showed an oscillating and weakening trend, ranging from around 19,310 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,050 yuan/ton [2][9]. - Last week, the price of LME aluminum futures showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with the contract price running around 2,377 - 2,460 US dollars/ton [12]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of May 9, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 19,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 19,640 yuan/ton, 19,840 yuan/ton, 19,665 yuan/ton, and 19,635 yuan/ton respectively. As of the same date, the premium or discount of electrolytic aluminum remained around par, unchanged from the previous trading day [15]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - In April 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of alumina was 87.4 million tons, with a total capacity of 110.82 million tons and an operating rate of 78.87%. The domestic operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. As of April 2025, the in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.099 million tons, with a total capacity of 45.182 million tons and an operating rate of 97.6%. From a seasonal perspective, the operating rate was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [21]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of May 9, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 169,665 tons, a decrease of 6,192 tons from the previous week. As of May 8, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 405,575 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 38.13%. - As of May 8, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous day. The inventories in Shanghai, Wuxi, Hangzhou, Foshan, Tianjin, Shenyang, Gongyi, and Chongqing were 31,000 tons, 196,000 tons, 14,000 tons, 237,000 tons, 20,000 tons, 1,000 tons, 74,000 tons, and 7,000 tons respectively [27]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve admitted that the uncertainty of the economic outlook has further increased, and "the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased." In April, the one - year inflation expectation in the US remained stable at 3.6%, while the three - year inflation expectation rose from 3% to 4.2%, reaching the highest level since July 2022. The inflation expectation in the US has risen, and the pressure on the employment market has increased. - The total capacity of alumina continues to grow, while the in - production capacity has decreased. The capacity of electrolytic aluminum continues to climb, and the operating rate remains at a high level. The inventory of Shanghai aluminum continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly [4][36].

研究报告 甲醇周报 基本面依旧偏弱，甲醇反弹动力不足 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 能化研究员：宋鹏 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周甲醇基本面依旧偏弱，甲醇期货同样弱势运行，截至 上周五下午收盘，甲醇加权收于 2239 元/吨，较前一周下跌 1.06%。 【基本面】 上周，国内甲醇生产企业延续复产多于检修，甲醇供给继 续增加。需求方面，上周甲醇下游烯烃行业开工整体走低，需 求端预期偏弱。库存方面，上周甲醇样本生产企业库存上升， 待发订单下降，港口库存同样上升。利润方面，上周甲醇生产 企业利润下降。 【后市展望】 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 12 日星期一 本周甲醇基本面缺乏实质性利好。供给端，由于前期甲醇 生产企业复产多于检修，供给已升至高位。需求端，由于烯烃 将逐步进入检修季，甲醇需求或将缩减。本周外轮到港或环比 减量，但近期港口库存总体上升。上周甲醇企业库存上升，待 发订单减少，也反映需求偏弱。总体来看，甲醇基本面依旧偏 弱。 本报告中所有观 ...

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: This week, the futures prices of edible oils showed a divergent trend. As the palm oil main - producing areas enter the peak production period, the inventory will significantly increase in the coming months, and the palm oil price at the origin is expected to continue to be under pressure. The increasing supply pressure is pushing the palm oil price center of gravity to decline continuously. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand for palm oil at the origin is intensifying. The re - allocation of arbitrage funds temporarily eases the weakness of soybean oil and rapeseed oil and promotes the return of the price difference between edible oils to a normal level. With the arrival of the off - season for domestic edible oil demand and the successive arrival of imported soybeans, the factory operating rate will further increase, and the soybean oil inventory will enter the accumulation stage. In addition, factors such as the promotion of biodiesel policies and changes in the international trade situation will also affect the edible oil market. It is highly likely that the prices of the three major domestic edible oils will fluctuate widely [9][31]. Market Data Summary Spot Analysis - As of May 8, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of May 9, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,550 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [11]. - As of May 8, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the futures main - contract price was 9,372 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton month - on - month. It was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [13]. Other Data - As of May 2, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 711,000 tons. On May 7, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 332,000 tons [17]. - As of May 8, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 5,207,280 tons [20]. - As of May 9, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared with the past 5 years [21]. - As of May 9, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 664 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [22]. - As of May 9, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 145 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [24]. Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of edible oils fluctuated. The Y2509 soybean oil contract fell 0.66% to close at 7,780 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract fell 3.22% to close at 7,886 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract rose 0.62% to close at 9,355 yuan/ton [5][30]. - In terms of palm oil, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) showed that from April 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 24.62% month - on - month. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) reported a 17.03% month - on - month increase for the same period, and its data showed a 60.17% month - on - month increase in palm oil production from May 1 - 5. The palm oil production at the origin showed a strong upward trend, and the Malaysian palm oil price fell 1.68% [7][30]. - In terms of soybean oil, as of the week of May 4, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting rate was 30%, lower than the market expectation of 31%, compared with 24% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 23%. The U.S. soybean emergence rate was 7%, compared with 8% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 5%. Overall, the start of the U.S. soybean season was normal, and the U.S. soybean price fell 0.57% this week [7][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★ [6] Report's Core View - Last week, the rebar 2510 contract declined by 2.39. Currently, the hot metal production supply is at a high level, and the market's expectation of steel mill production control has increased. However, the market still lacks overall rebound momentum and is likely to experience low - level fluctuations in the near future. It is recommended to wait and see [5][34][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: No specific data provided [7] - **Spot Price**: As of May 9, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,150 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; in Tianjin, it was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [12] - **Basis and Spread**: No specific data provided [13] Important Market Information - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote a reasonable recovery of prices, smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism, improve the interest rate regulation framework, and reduce the comprehensive social financing cost [16] Supply - Side Situation - According to SMM, the planned rebar production in May is 931.53 million tons, a 4.03% increase from the actual production in April; the planned wire rod production in May is 368.94 million tons, a 5.30% increase from the actual production in April. MySteel's survey of 247 steel mills shows a blast furnace operating rate of 84.62%, a 0.29% month - on - month and 3.12% year - on - year increase; a blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 92.09%, a 0.09% month - on - month and 4.42% year - on - year increase; a steel mill profitability rate of 58.87%, a 2.59% month - on - month and 6.92% year - on - year increase; and a daily average hot metal output of 2.4564 million tons, a 0.22 - million - ton month - on - month increase. The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples increased by 0.2% to 88.9%, with a daily average raw coal output of 2.021 million tons, a 0.4 - million - ton month - on - month increase, and raw coal inventory increased by 21.8 million tons to 5.799 million tons [33] Demand - Side Situation - In April 2025, the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 51.9, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease; the purchasing manager's index for the steel circulation industry was 48.8, a 3.8% month - on - month decrease [22] Inventory - Side Situation - No specific data provided [28][30] Fundamental Analysis - The same as the supply - side situation [33] 后市展望 - In April, the hot metal production increased significantly, reaching a five - year high. The market's expectation of steel mill production control has increased, but the market still lacks overall rebound momentum and is likely to experience low - level fluctuations in the near future [34] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [35]