期货从业资格证号：F0246320 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 研究报告 股指周报 市场波动率收敛，股指宜以震荡策略应对 华龙期货投资咨询部 电话：13519655433 邮箱：383566967@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 28 日星期一 【行情复盘】： 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 上周 IF2505 报收于 3774.8 点，相较前一周 上涨 37.8 点，涨幅 1.01%。IH2505 报收于 2645.0 点，相较前一周上涨 1.2 点，涨幅 0.05%。IC2505 报收于 5582.2 点，相较前一周上涨 101.0 点，涨 幅 1.84%。IM2505 报收于 5885.0 点，相较前一周 上涨 146.8 点，涨幅 2.56%。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 （一）、基本面分析 1、1—3 月份，全 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In the short - term, rubber prices will continue to face pressure due to weak macro - sentiment affecting demand expectations and a still - weak fundamental situation. However, the downside space is limited, and the market is expected to remain volatile before the holiday. Key factors to monitor include the impact of the macro and policy aspects, weather changes in major producing areas, rubber tapping conditions at home and abroad, rubber import conditions, demand changes, and inventory changes [8][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 ranged from 14,420 to 14,975 yuan/ton, showing a low - level narrow - range oscillation and a slight overall increase. As of April 25, 2025, it closed at 14,720 yuan/ton, up 130 points or 0.89% for the week [6][14]. - **Spot Price**: As of April 25, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheets (RSS3) was 20,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,200 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous week [19][22]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis between the Shanghai Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) spot price and the main natural rubber futures contract price slightly expanded. As of April 25, 2025, the basis was - 170 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic natural rubber price rose slightly, while the foreign price fell slightly [26][29]. Important Market Information - **US Economic and Policy News**: Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's interest - rate policy but had no plan to fire Powell. The market's risk - aversion sentiment decreased, and US stock index futures rose while COMEX gold futures fell. Trump's economic support rate hit a new low, and the Fed's "Beige Book" showed little change in economic activity with widespread trade policy uncertainty. Trump may exempt some tariffs on the auto and steel industries, and US tariff revenue in April soared by over 60% to at least 15 billion US dollars [32][33]. - **US Economic Data**: The initial jobless claims in the US last week were 222,000, in line with expectations. The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April was 52.2, a new low since July 2022, and the one - year inflation rate expectation reached a new high since January 1980 [33]. - **Global Economic Outlook**: The IMF significantly downgraded the global economic growth rate, predicting that the global economic growth rate will drop to 2.8% in 2025 and 3% in 2026, and also lowered the US economic growth forecast [33]. - **Chinese Economic News**: China's macro - policies are coordinated, and the economy shows a positive trend. The government will implement more proactive fiscal and monetary policies. Regarding the US - China trade issue, China is firm in its stance. From January to March, the operating income of state - owned enterprises was flat year - on - year, and the total profit increased by 1.7%. In the first quarter, the total transaction volume of first - and second - hand housing increased by 10% year - on - year, with second - hand housing up 34.7%. From January to April, the average monthly premium rate of land auctions in 22 key cities was around 20% [35]. - **Automobile and Rubber - related Data**: In March, China's automobile production and sales were good, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks decreased slightly year - on - year but increased significantly month - on - month. In the first quarter, China's rubber tire exports increased slightly year - on - year [8][37][38]. Supply - side Situation - **Natural Rubber Production in Main Producing Countries**: As of February 28, 2025, the production in Malaysia increased slightly, Indonesia decreased slightly, Vietnam decreased slightly, India decreased significantly, and Thailand decreased significantly. China's main producing areas were in the non - tapping period. The total production of main natural rubber producing countries in February 2025 was 694,800 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [44]. - **Synthetic Rubber Production in China**: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1%, and the cumulative production was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [49][53]. - **Import of New Pneumatic Rubber Tires in China**: As of March 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [56]. Demand - side Situation - **Automobile Tire Enterprise Operating Rates**: As of April 24, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 78.11%, down 0.33% from the previous week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 62.46%, down 2.97% [59]. - **Automobile Production and Sales in China**: As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.0058 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.86% and a month - on - month increase of 42.93%; monthly sales were 2.9155 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% and a month - on - month increase of 36.97%. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks were 111,483 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 3.69% and a month - on - month increase of 37.02% [63][66][71]. - **Tire Production and Export in China**: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly production of Chinese tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [74][80]. Inventory - side Situation - **Natural Rubber Futures Inventory**: As of April 25, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,520 tons, down 630 tons from the previous week. - **Domestic Natural Rubber Inventory**: As of April 20, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.369 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons or 1%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 830,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 538,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. The total inventory in Qingdao was 612,500 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons or 1.08% from the previous period, with the bonded area inventory down 1.22% and the general trade inventory down 1.06% [87]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Global natural rubber main producing areas are gradually starting to tap. The supply increase expectation is strong, and the support from the supply side is weakening. In March, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 17% year - on - year [88]. - **Demand**: Last week, the operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased, the overall shipment of tire enterprises was weak, and the finished - product inventory continued to accumulate. In March 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks decreased slightly year - on - year but increased significantly month - on - month. In the first quarter, China's rubber tire exports increased by 6.2% year - on - year. The "trade - in" policy is stimulating terminal consumption [88]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, China's social inventory of natural rubber declined slightly but remained at a high level, and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly with a slightly faster destocking speed [88]. Operation Strategy It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will remain volatile before the holiday. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [9][90].

研究报告 铅周报 沪铅或以震荡趋势运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周，沪铅期货主力合约 PB2506 价格以震荡行情为主。价格 范围在 16820 元/吨附近至 17085 元/吨左右。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 28 日星期一 铅现货价格小幅回升，铅贴水有所扩大，但仍处于合理区间。 全球精炼铅矿山产量同比增长、环比下降，全球铅供需仍然处于 小幅过剩状态。铅加工费从底部逐步回升，回升幅度缩小。中国 汽车产量继续增长，铅蓄电池需求或增长。沪铅库存大幅下降， 库存水平处于近年来高位。LME 铅库存小幅下降，库存水平处于 近年来高位。 【后市展望】 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★★ [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term negative factors have been gradually digested, market sentiment has improved, and the expectation of production cuts has increased. Recently, steel prices have shown signs of stabilizing and fluctuating. The rb2510 contract should be treated as a short - term stable, fluctuating rebound, and attention should be paid to whether it can fill the gap in early April [2][5][32][33] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - As of April 27, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; in Tianjin, it was 3,230 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [9] Important Market Information - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized on April 25 to implement more proactive macro - policies, use fiscal and monetary policies, and improve the policy toolbox for stabilizing employment and the economy. PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng said that China's Q1 GDP grew 5.4% year - on - year, with a stable financial system and resilient financial markets [13] Supply - side Situation - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, up 0.77% month - on - month and 4.60% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, up 1.45% month - on - month and 6.07% year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, up 2.60% month - on - month and 6.93% year - on - year; the daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, up 4.23 million tons month - on - month and 15.63 million tons year - on - year [5][30] Demand - side Situation - As of March 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 53.4, up 0.7% month - on - month; the current value of the Steel Distribution Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 52.6, up 3.3% month - on - month [16] Inventory - side Situation - Last week, the rebar mill inventory and output decreased for the second consecutive week, and the social inventory decreased for the seventh consecutive week [32] Fundamental Analysis - Vale's CFO expects iron ore prices to stabilize at $100/ton. The average national profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 9 yuan/ton, while in Shanxi, it was 15 yuan/ton. China Iron and Steel Association's Luo Tiejun said production cuts are a consensus. The total inventory of imported iron ore of national steel mills was 9.07303 billion tons, up 20.11 million tons week - on - week; the daily consumption of imported ore was 301.39 million tons, up 3.29 million tons week - on - week; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.1 days, down 0.27 days week - on - week. On April 25, mainstream coking enterprises proposed a second - round price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton [30][31] 后市展望 - Last week, the apparent demand for rebar changed from increasing to decreasing, mill inventory and output decreased for the second consecutive week, and social inventory decreased for the seventh consecutive week. Market sentiment improved significantly, the expectation of steel mill production cuts increased, and steel prices showed signs of stabilizing and fluctuating [32] Operation Strategy - Treat the rb2510 contract as a short - term stable, fluctuating rebound, and pay attention to whether it can fill the gap in early April [33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - With the reduction of macro - shocks, the oil and fat market has returned to fundamental trading. The loosening of the US attitude towards Chinese tariffs has improved the sentiment of the oil and oilseed sector. Coupled with the recovery of crude oil prices from a low level, palm oil has stopped falling. The total inventory of the three major edible oils in China has decreased, and the domestic prices of the three major oils are likely to fluctuate widely [8][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Abstract - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and rebounded. The Y2509 soybean oil contract rose 2.99% to close at 7,934 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 3.00% to close at 8,376 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract rose 3.09% to close at 9,506 yuan/ton [5][31]. - From April 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production is estimated to increase by 19.88%, and Malaysian palm oil rose 2.08%. As of the week of April 22, about 21% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, compared with 23% in the previous week and 20% in the same period last year. US soybeans rose 1.19% this week [6][7][31]. - The domestic prices of the three major oils are likely to fluctuate widely. The inventory of the three major edible oils in China has decreased, and the soybean oil inventory has dropped to the lowest level in the same period in many years due to low soybean crushing volume. The palm oil inventory in the producing areas is expected to stop falling and start to rise, and the lower - than - expected demand for biodiesel limits the increase in palm oil prices. The rapeseed oil fundamentals are relatively stable and unable to break the current sideways consolidation state [8][32]. b. Spot Analysis - As of April 25, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,470 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared with the past five years [9]. - As of April 25, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,230 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [10]. - As of April 25, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,600 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [12]. c. Other Data - As of April 18, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 69,000 tons to 730,000 tons. On April 23, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 364,000 tons [16]. - As of April 24, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 5,567,690 tons [19]. - As of April 25, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 536 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [22]. - As of April 25, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 854 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [23]. - As of April 25, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 94 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [25]. d. Comprehensive Analysis - The content of the comprehensive analysis is basically the same as that in the abstract, including the price changes of futures contracts, production and drought information, and the outlook for the oil and fat market [31][32].

研究报告 甲醇周报 宏观面或有转机，未来关注供给 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 21 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 上周由于内地多套装置停车检修，内地甲醇现货涨幅较大， 但是市场对甲醇未来供需偏弱的预期仍未实质性改变，甲醇港 口价格依旧下跌，甲醇期货跟随港口甲醇价格，总体呈现下跌， 截至周五下午收盘，甲醇加权收于 2288 元/吨，较上周下跌 2.56%。 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 一、甲醇走势回顾 甲醇期货加权走势图 部分区域甲醇价格对比图（元/吨） 【基本面】 上周，国内甲醇企业检修多于复产，甲醇供给再次下降。 需求方面，上周甲醇下游烯烃产能利用率有较为明显的下降， 或预示甲醇未来需求可能缩减。库存方面，上周甲醇样本生产 企业库存小幅下降，港口样本库存小幅上升。利润方面，上周 甲醇生产企业利润总体回升，尤其是内蒙、山东煤制甲醇利 ...

研究报告 股指周报 市场逐渐进入平稳 【行情复盘】： 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 上周 IF2505 报收于 3737.0 点，相较前一周 上涨 19.6 点，涨幅 0.53%。IH2505 报收于 2643.8 点，相较前一周上涨 36.8 点，涨幅 1.41%。IC2505 报收于 5481.2 点，相较前一周下 14.2 点，跌幅 0.26%。IM2505 报收于 5738.2 点，相较前一周下 跌 25.0 点，跌幅 0.43%。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 华龙期货投资咨询部 期货从业资格证号：F0246320 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 电话：13519655433 邮箱：383566967@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 21 日星期一 研究报告 （一）、基本面分析 1、3 月份，社会消费品零售总额 40940 ...

研究报告 铜周报 沪铜价格或宽幅震荡运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 21 日星期一 特朗普政府与美联储的争执升级，美国总统特朗普再度对美 国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔施压，要求美联储立即降息。特朗 普政府昨晚宣布，美方将对中国建造或运营的船只停靠美国港口 征收额外的费用。一季度国内生产总值 318758 亿元，按不变价格 计算，同比增长 5.4%，比上年四季度环比增长 1.2%。铜价受宏观 面影响依然较大，投资者应关注美国政府及美联储的态度转变。 精炼铜产量保持增长，铜消费仍然强劲，供应处于短缺状况。终 端消费增长预期仍一定程度支撑铜价。沪铜库存继续下降，库存 水平处于近年来较低位。LME 铜库存小幅下降，注销仓单占比小 幅下降。 【后市展望】 铜价或以宽幅震荡趋势为主。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情 ...

螺纹周报 研究报告 市场心态仍然偏弱，钢价低位震荡 摘要： 华龙期货投资咨询部 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约下跌 1.6% 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 21 日星期一 基本面：据我的钢铁网数据，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.56%， 环比增加 0.28%，同比增加 4.70%；钢厂盈利率 54.98%，环比增加 1.30%， 同比增加 6.50%；日均铁水产量 240.12 万吨，环比减少 0.10 万吨。上周 螺纹钢周度产量 229.22 万吨，环比下降 3.15 万吨，钢厂库存 200.4 万吨， 环比下降 14.26 万吨，社会库存 532.76 万吨，环比下降 30.34 万吨，钢材 五大品种周度产量 872.71 万吨，环比上升 1.65 万吨，库存合计 1584.68 万吨，环比下降 75.93 万吨，表观需求 948.64，环比上升 48.1 万吨。 后市展望：上周螺纹钢表需连续第九周增加，厂 ...

研究报告 油脂周报 市场逐步走稳，油脂震荡整理 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 | | | | 电话：13609351809 | | | | 邮箱：445012260@qq.com | | | | 报告日期：2025 年 04 21 | 月 | 星期一 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 本周油脂期价震荡整理，全周豆油 Y2509 合约上涨 0.31%， 以 7704 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2509 合约下跌 0.78%以 8132 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2509 合约下跌 1.42%，以 9221 元/吨报收。 【重要资讯】： 榈油方面：独立检验公司 AmSpec Agri 发布的数据显示，马 来西亚 4 月 1-15 日棕榈油出口量为 450657 吨，较上月同期出口 增加 53792 ...