Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, domestic edible oils oscillated upwards driven by the overall strength of commodities. In the short - term, domestic edible oils may continue to oscillate strongly, but in the medium - to - long - term, the market remains in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [8][29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - This week, the futures prices of edible oils oscillated upwards. The Y2509 soybean oil contract rose 2.18% to close at 8,160 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 3.25% to close at 8,964 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract rose 1.56% to close at 9,586 yuan/ton [5][28]. - In August, Malaysia's reference price for crude palm oil was 3,864.12 ringgit/ton (about 910.28 US dollars), up significantly from July, and the export tax will increase from 8.5% in July to 9%. The Malaysian palm oil rose 3.38% [6][28]. - In the 2024/25 season, Argentina's soybean production reached 49.9 million tons, a 3.5% increase from the previous year, and the planting area expanded by 7.7%. The US soybean rose 2.73% this week [7][29]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,300 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [9]. - As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,970 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,670 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [11]. 3.3 Other Data - As of July 11, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 37,000 tons to 1.138 million tons. On July 16, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 21,000 tons to 545,000 tons [15]. - As of July 10, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,475,410 tons [18]. - As of July 18, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 140 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [19]. - As of July 18, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 6 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [20]. - As of July 18, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 84 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [22]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of edible oils oscillated upwards. The futures prices of edible oils mostly follow external and capital fluctuations. Currently, the producing areas are in the seasonal production - increasing season, and Malaysia's palm oil inventory is likely to increase. However, Indonesia's demand for biodiesel is continuously improving, and the increase in palm oil inventory at a low level is expected to be slow. The soybean oil inventory is accumulating rapidly, and there is still room for further accumulation [28][29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures fluctuated upward with a relatively large increase. Looking ahead, from a macro perspective, the data released last week showed that the US CPI increased year-on-year in June, the PPI was flat month-on-month, and the number of initial jobless claims decreased for the fifth consecutive week, increasing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year. Fundamentally, on the supply side, recent weather disturbances in major producing areas have led to a shortage of raw material supply, supporting rubber prices, but there is still a strong expectation of increased supply. Imports increased year-on-year in June. On the demand side, the operating rates of tire enterprises rebounded last week, and finished product inventories remained at a historical high. In the terminal automobile market, automobile production and sales and heavy truck sales improved in June, and continuous consumption stimulus policies in China boosted demand. China's tire exports increased slightly year-on-year in the first half of the year. In terms of inventory, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly last week; China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both increased slightly. In summary, weather disturbances in major producing areas support raw material prices to remain firm, terminal demand has improved, China's macro sentiment is positive, and the commodity market atmosphere has warmed up, driving the rubber market to continue to strengthen. It is expected that the market may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term [8][85]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main contract of natural rubber, RU2509, fluctuated between 14,225 - 14,980 yuan/ton, with a relatively large overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of July 18, 2025, the main contract of natural rubber, RU2509, closed at 14,810 yuan/ton, rising 450 points for the week, a 3.13% increase [6][15]. - **Spot Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state-owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai three smoked sheets (RSS3) was 19,800 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,290 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from the previous week [20][22]. - **Basis and Spread**: Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state-owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two was flat compared with the previous week. As of July 18, 2025, the basis remained at -10 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both increased significantly compared with the previous week [26][29]. Important Market Information - **US Economic Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 7,000 to 221,000 last week, dropping to the lowest level since mid - April, indicating the resilience of the job market. The US CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year in June, the highest since February. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, both lower than market expectations. After the data was released, traders predicted that the Fed would start cutting interest rates in September, with a cumulative nearly two - time rate cut by the end of the year. The US PPI was flat month-on-month in June, and the core PPI was also flat, with the smallest year - on - year increase since the end of 2023. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in July was 61.8, a five - month high, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was at a five - month low. The Fed's "Beige Book" showed that economic activity increased slightly from late May to early July, but uncertainty remained high [30][31]. - **China's Economic Data**: Foreign institutions collectively raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025. China's GDP in the first half of the year was 66.05 trillion yuan, a 5.3% year - on - year increase. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year-on-year in June, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 4.8%. In the first half of the year, China's total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan. China's total goods trade import and export value in the first half of the year was 21.79 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period, with exports increasing by 7.2% and imports increasing by 2.3%. The prices of new and second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month in June, but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market increased by 7% year-on-year, and the retail sales of the new energy passenger car market increased by 26% year-on-year. In June, China's automobile production and sales increased by 11.4% and 13.8% year-on-year respectively, and heavy truck sales increased by about 29% year-on-year [32][33][34]. Supply - Side Situation - **Natural Rubber Production**: As of May 31, 2025, the production in Thailand's main producing area increased significantly compared with the previous month, and the production in China's and Vietnam's main producing areas increased significantly. The production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and India increased slightly compared with the previous month. The total production of major natural rubber producing countries in May 2025 was 722,700 tons, a 43.05% increase from the previous month [40]. - **Synthetic Rubber Production**: As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 703,000 tons, a 3.7% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative production was 4.231 million tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase [44][48]. - **Import of New Pneumatic Rubber Tires**: As of June 30, 2025, China's import of new pneumatic rubber tires was 9,400 tons, a 3.3% month - on - month increase [52]. Demand - Side Situation - **Tire Enterprise Operating Rates**: As of July 17, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 75.99%, up 3.07% from the previous week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.1%, up 0.54% from the previous week [54]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, a 11.43% year - on - year increase and a 5.5% month - on - month increase; monthly sales were 2.9045 million vehicles, a 13.83% year - on - year increase and an 8.12% month - on - month increase. The monthly sales of heavy trucks were 97,864 vehicles, a 37.14% year - on - year increase and a 10.25% month - on - month increase [57][60][66]. - **Tire Production and Export**: As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly tire outer - tube production was 102.749 million pieces, a 1.1% year - on - year decrease. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 60.31 million pieces, a 2.44% month - on - month decrease [69][74]. Inventory - Side Situation - As of July 18, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 186,640 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from the previous week. As of July 13, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.295 million tons, a 0.14% increase. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 797,000 tons, a 0.8% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 498,000 tons, a 0.9% decrease. The total inventory of natural rubber in the bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, a 0.63% increase [83]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Currently, the global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period. Recently, major domestic and foreign producing areas have been affected by weather, with firm raw material prices. There are also expectations of production cuts in Hainan and the Leizhou Peninsula in China due to typhoon threats, boosting rubber prices. However, there is still a strong expectation of increased supply. In June 2025, China's total imports of natural and synthetic rubber were 599,000 tons, a 27.2% increase from the same period in 2024 [84]. - **Demand**: Last week, the operating rates of tire enterprises rebounded, and downstream buyers mainly waited and watched while making appropriate replenishments. The finished product inventory of semi - steel tires remained at a historical high. In the terminal automobile market, China's automobile production and sales in June were 2.794 million and 2.904 million vehicles respectively, a 11.4% and 13.8% year - on - year increase. Heavy truck sales increased by 10.25% month - on - month and 37.14% year - on - year in June. China's rubber tire exports in the first half of 2025 were 4.71 million tons, a 4.5% year - on - year increase. Consumption stimulus policies have been continuously introduced in various regions of China [84]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, while China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both increased slightly [84]. 后市展望 - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures fluctuated upward last week with a relatively large increase. Looking ahead, due to weather disturbances in major producing areas supporting raw material prices, improved terminal demand, positive domestic macro sentiment, and a warming commodity market atmosphere, the rubber market is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term. Key factors to focus on in the future include changes in China's macro sentiment, weather disturbances in major rubber producing areas, changes in terminal demand, the progress of zero - tariff policies, the latest progress of EU anti - dumping investigations, and changes in Sino - US tariffs [85]. Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will fluctuate with a slightly stronger trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 15,000 yuan/ton. In operation, it is recommended to maintain an oscillatory and bullish mindset [9][86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the rising spot price boosts market sentiment, but the significant pressure on the breeding side may limit the price increase of eggs [8][60]. - It is recommended to go long with a light position on dips and continuously monitor the recovery of demand and the reduction of production capacity [9][61]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Trend Review 3.1.1. Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of egg futures changed from 2508 to 2509, with the market oscillating. As of last Friday's close, the JD2509 contract was reported at 3,595 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.03%, with a trading volume of 340,339 lots and an open interest of 257,912 lots [5][13]. 3.1.2. Spot Price - Last Friday, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.05 yuan per jin, up 0.13 yuan per jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.09 yuan per jin, up 0.15 yuan per jin from the previous day [17]. - Last week, the egg price in the main producing areas showed a strong trend. At the beginning of the week, the market's bullish sentiment increased, the inventory decreased, and the egg price rose accordingly. In the middle of the week, the terminal procurement slowed down, and the price stabilized. Near the weekend, the market's bullish sentiment emerged, and the egg price rose again. The egg price in the selling areas continued to be strong, driven by the rising price in the producing areas, with active downstream procurement. The high - temperature weather led to a decline in the laying rate and a shortage of supply in the producing areas, resulting in a decrease in the arrival volume in the selling areas, and the egg price rose steadily under the dual support of supply and demand [7][18]. 3.1.3. Chicken Chick Price - Last week, the chicken chick price continued to be weak. The average price of commercial chicken chicks in key national regions was 3.74 yuan per chick, with a month - on - month decline of 0.53% and a year - on - year increase of 15.79%. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was about 60% - 70%. The high inventory of laying hens and the continuous loss of breeding enterprises, combined with the cautious expectation of the future market and the difficulty of breeding management in summer, led to low replenishment enthusiasm and a significant slowdown in the chick - arranging progress of breeding enterprises [22]. 3.1.4. Old Hen Price - Last week, the old hen price continued to rise. The average price of old hens in key producing areas was 4.85 yuan per jin, up 0.19 yuan per jin from the previous week, with a growth rate of 4.08%. The rising egg price boosted the confidence of the breeding side in the future egg market, and the rising old hen price further strengthened the bullish expectation of the breeding side. The overall culling willingness was low, the slaughter volume decreased significantly, and the circulation efficiency of the live - poultry market improved [27]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - **In - production Laying Hen Inventory**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in July is expected to increase month - on - month. The actual slaughter volume of old hens this month is expected to be less than the theoretical value, and the inventory of in - production laying hens may increase month - on - month, with an estimated value of about 1.285 billion [31]. - **Shipping Volume in Producing Areas**: The shipping volume in the main producing areas increased month - on - month. Last week, the shipping volume of representative markets in the main producing areas was 6,229.57 tons, up 1.30% month - on - month and down 16.29% year - on - year. The rising egg price drove the downstream procurement enthusiasm, but the decline in the laying rate due to weather factors restricted the shipping rhythm [36]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens was 489,600, down 7.45% month - on - month, and the average slaughter age was 503 days, unchanged from the previous week. The rising egg price led to a strong reluctance to sell among breeders, and the slaughter enthusiasm decreased significantly [41]. 3.2.2. Demand Side - **Arrival Volume in Selling Areas**: The arrival volume in the selling areas decreased. At the beginning of last week, the price increase in the producing and selling areas led to an increase in the arrival volume, but as the egg price stabilized and the temperature was high, the arrival volume decreased [46]. - **Sales Volume in Selling Areas**: As of last Thursday, the egg sales volume was 5,757.91 tons, down 2.94% month - on - month. The egg price rebounded, and the selling areas accelerated inventory clearance. Affected by the high - temperature weather, the inventory in each circulation link was low, and the terminal and food enterprises only purchased as needed [50]. 3.2.3. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.5 days, down 0.03 days from the previous day, with a decrease of 5.66%. The circulation - link inventory was 0.73 days, down 0.01 days from the previous day, with a decrease of 1.35%. The egg inventory decreased month - on - month. The low - price sales were fast, and the decline in the laying rate due to high - temperature weather led to a tight supply and a faster inventory clearance [54]. 3.2.4. Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the laying hen breeding cost was 3.53 yuan per jin, down 0.01 yuan per jin month - on - month, with a decline of 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.77 yuan per jin, up 0.18 yuan per jin month - on - month, with a growth rate of 18.95%. The prices of corn and soybean meal fluctuated, the breeding cost decreased slightly, and the breeding profit rebounded [59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and moderately upward trend [3][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Prices**: Last week, the price of the main contract AL2508 of Shanghai copper futures fluctuated between around 77,700 yuan/ton and a maximum of about 78,580 yuan/ton. The LME copper futures price also showed a fluctuating trend, with the contract price ranging from 9,575 - 9,720 US dollars/ton [7][11]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of July 18, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 78,635 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 78,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 77,990 yuan/ton, 77,940 yuan/ton, 78,090 yuan/ton, and 78,050 yuan/ton respectively. The electrolytic copper premium was maintained at around an increase of 115 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of July 11, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 43.23 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.32 cents/pound. As of June 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 14.2% [21]. - **Automobile Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.2145 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As of May 2025, the monthly automobile production in China was 2.8086 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% [26]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Global Visible Inventory**: As of July 18, 2025, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 84,556 tons, an increase of 3,094 tons from the previous week. As of July 17, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 122,150 tons, an increase of 1,150 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 11.52%. As of July 17, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 241,814 tons, an increase of 2,379 tons from the previous trading day. - **Domestic Invisible Inventory**: As of July 17, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 69,300 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 26,000 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 24,700 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged from the previous week [31]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - China's GDP in the first half of 2025 was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices, with the economy operating generally smoothly. The national consumer price (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the national industrial producer price decreased by 2.8% year - on - year. In June, it decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The contradiction between the Federal Reserve and the US government has intensified, and the policy shift during the last year of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term is worthy of attention. The copper smelting processing fee is stable but still at a historical low. Refined copper production continues to grow rapidly. The year - on - year growth rate of copper product output has accelerated, automobile production continues to increase year - on - year, and copper consumption remains strong. The Shanghai copper inventory has increased slightly, and the inventory level is at a relatively low level in recent years. The COMEX copper inventory continues to increase significantly [2][41].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating of the steel industry is ★★ [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the price of the rebar 2510 contract rose by 0.45%, and it increased by 1.3% during the night session on Friday [4] - The production and apparent demand of rebar decreased for the second consecutive week last week. The steel mill inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, and the social inventory changed from decreasing to increasing. The "anti-involution" supports steel prices, and the fundamentals of upstream coking coal and coke are gradually improving, driving the overall black sector to fluctuate stronger [5][34] - It is recommended to take a bullish approach with low-level fluctuations [6][35] Group 3: Summary by Directory Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: No specific data provided [7] - **Spot Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,270 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin it was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [13] - **Basis and Spread**: No specific data provided [14] Important Market Information - On July 15, the China Iron and Steel Industry Association proposed suggestions at the meeting, including controlling increments, optimizing stocks, promoting mergers and reorganizations, and ensuring smooth exits. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote key industries to adjust structures and eliminate backward production capacity [17] - Canada will expand the scope of import steel tariff quotas and tighten existing quotas from August 1, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce believes this violates WTO rules [18] Supply - side Situation - No specific data provided [19] Demand - side Situation - As of June 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 52.8, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the current value of the steel circulation industry purchasing manager index was 45.6, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% [25] Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.31% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 1.27%; the steel mill profitability rate was 60.17%, a month - on - month increase of 0.43% and a year - on - year increase of 28.14%; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26,300 tons [34] - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports was 143.8151 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 346,200 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3876 million tons, an increase of 96,000 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports was 137.8521 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 193,200 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2274 million tons, an increase of 323,000 tons [34] 后市 Outlook - The production and apparent demand of rebar decreased for the second consecutive week last week. The steel mill inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, and the social inventory changed from decreasing to increasing. The "anti-involution" supports steel prices, and the fundamentals of upstream coking coal and coke are gradually improving, driving the overall black sector to fluctuate stronger [5][34] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to take a bullish approach with low-level fluctuations [6][35]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On July 18, 2025, China's A-share market showed a slight upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% to 3534.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to 10913.84 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.34% to 2277.15 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.5711 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan from the previous day [3]. - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market showed a strengthening trend. The weekly increases of the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures were 1.21%, 0.56%, 1.36%, and 1.48% respectively [3]. - Last week, 30-year and 10-year treasury bond futures rose, while 5-year and 2-year treasury bond futures fell [4]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference held a symposium on the analysis of the macroeconomic situation in the first half of 2025. Some members put forward suggestions on stabilizing and activating the capital market, promoting technological innovation in the private sector, and other aspects [8]. - From 2020 to 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased from 39.1 trillion yuan to 48.3 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. It is expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [8]. - In the first half of this year, central state-owned enterprises achieved an added value of 5.2 trillion yuan and completed fixed - asset investment of 2 trillion yuan. In the second half of the year, they will focus on developing new - quality productive forces [8]. - From July 12 - 18, there were 97 domestic investment and financing events, a 21.25% increase from the previous week. The total disclosed financing amount was about 5.041 billion yuan, an 8.85% increase. The artificial intelligence field had the highest disclosed financing amount, about 2.486 billion yuan [9]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 1.7268 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1.2011 trillion yuan. This week, 1.7268 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases, 200 billion yuan of MLF, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits are due [9]. 3. Valuation Analysis - As of July 18, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.32 times, with a percentile of 72.16%, and the PB was 1.40 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.33 times, with a percentile of 82.75%, and the PB was 1.25 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.1 times, with a percentile of 61.96%, and the PB was 2.23 times [12]. - The report introduced two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [19]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The main contract of the CSI 300 stock index futures (IF2509) closed at 4041.80 points on July 18, with a weekly increase of 1.21%. The current low risk - free interest rate and reduced supply of high - yield risk - free assets have created favorable conditions for incremental funds to enter the market. The market is expected to continue a moderately strong trend this week, but there may be insufficient momentum for a significant upward movement in the short term. Traders are advised to control risks [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of methanol remain weak, and it is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][8][9][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the methanol futures oscillated, with the weighted price closing at 2,392 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 0.79% decline from the previous week. The spot price of the port methanol market mostly declined, and the inland market oscillated weakly [6][12]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,909,928 tons, a decrease of 77,148 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, a 3.89% drop from the previous week [13]. - **Downstream Demand**: Overall, it was stable. The overall start - up of the olefin industry slightly increased; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether remained flat; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides and formaldehyde decreased [16][17]. - **Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises increased by 0.46 million tons to 356,900 tons, a 1.31% increase; the order backlog decreased by 20,000 tons to 221,200 tons, an 8.29% decrease. The port sample inventory increased by 45,200 tons to 718,900 tons, a 6.71% increase [20][22]. - **Profit**: There was little change last week. Coal - based methanol profitability slightly increased, while coke - oven gas - based and natural - gas - based methanol performed poorly [24][25]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol device restarts exceeds that of overhauls. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 1.9193 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 85.17%, an increase from last week [28]. - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin industry's start - up is expected to rise slightly; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether will remain flat; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to decrease; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to increase [29]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of sample production enterprises is expected to be 334,600 tons, with a slight reduction. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [30][31]. - **Overall**: Methanol demand remains weak, the fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it is likely to oscillate in the short - term [32].

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is ★★ [7] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the 2510 contract for rebar rose 1.65%. Currently, steel prices are supported by the "anti-involution" logic, and the fundamentals of upstream coking coal and coke are gradually improving, driving the overall black sector to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips [5][6][37][38] Summary by Directory Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the rebar futures main contract daily K-line chart [8][10] - **Spot Price**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,240 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin it was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [15] - **Basis and Spread**: No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the data source [16][18] Important Market Information - On July 11, 2025, relevant departments released a notice to add green power consumption ratios for the steel, cement, and polysilicon industries and new data centers at national hub nodes in 2025 [19] Supply - Side Situation - No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the data source [20][23] Demand - Side Situation - As of June 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 52.8, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the current value of the Lang Steel: Steel Circulation Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 45.6, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% [27] Fundamental Analysis - On July 11, the China Coking Industry Association Market Committee believed that the coke market should raise prices as soon as possible. The coke price in Xingtai market is planned to be increased, with different price increases for different types of coke, and the adjusted price will be implemented from 0:00 on July 14 [36] 后市展望 - Currently, steel prices are supported by the "anti-involution" logic, and the improvement of the upstream coking coal and coke fundamentals drives the overall black sector to fluctuate strongly [37] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips [38]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The current corn price has limited upside and downside potential, and is expected to fluctuate within a range. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, while closely monitoring recent macro - policy adjustments and domestic supply - demand changes [8][75][76]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1. Market Review - **Futures Price**: Last week, the main continuous contract of corn futures oscillated weakly. As of last Friday's close, it was reported at 2,306 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.52%, with a trading volume of 509,176 lots and an open interest of 1,030,900 lots [5][14]. - **Spot Price**: The price of corn in the Northeast, North China, and sales regions continued to be weak. In the Northeast, the terminal purchase price generally decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton; in North China, the deep - processing enterprise purchase price decreased by 30 - 40 yuan/ton; in the sales regions, the port quotation was under pressure, and the north - south price difference narrowed [7][18][19]. 3.2. Corn Supply - Demand Pattern Analysis - **Planting Area and Yield**: In recent years, the domestic corn planting area has remained above 38 million hectares. It is expected that in 2025, the national corn planting area will be 40.47 million hectares, a decrease of 110,000 hectares from 2024, and the yield will be 276.59 million tons, an increase of 5.09 million tons from 2024, an increase of 1.87% [25][32]. - **Deep - processing Enterprise Inventory**: Last week, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises was 4.436 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% and a year - on - year increase of 3.55%. The inventory increase was concentrated in the Northeast [36]. - **Deep - processing Enterprise Startup**: The recent startup rate of deep - processing enterprises has been oscillating at a low level. This week, the startup rate in the Northeast region may further drop below 50% [41]. - **Deep - processing Enterprise Consumption**: From July 3rd to July 9th, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1578 million tons of corn, a month - on - month decrease of 18,500 tons [45]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 10th, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.58 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19% and a year - on - year increase of 1.38% [48]. - **Deep - processing Enterprise Profit**: Last week, the hedging by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin, Shandong, and Heilongjiang increased month - on - month, but was still in the negative range [53]. 3.3. Analysis of Related Products - **Corn Starch**: As of July 10th, the mainstream transaction price of corn starch in Shandong decreased by 40 - 50 yuan/ton month - on - month. The national average price of corn starch was 2,835 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The market price continued to be weak [60]. - **Wheat**: As of July 10th, the national average price of corn was 2,421 yuan/ton, and the average price of wheat was 2,440 yuan/ton. The wheat price continued to decline last week [67]. - **Sorghum**: As of July 10th, the price of imported sorghum at Nantong Port was 20 yuan/ton lower than that of corn. The price of imported sorghum remained stagnant, and the market transaction was light [70]. - **Pigs**: Last week, the national average price of live pig slaughter was 14.96 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.54% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. The supply - demand pattern of the pig market remained weak [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of natural rubber futures is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short - term. The interference of weather in the main producing areas supports the raw material price to remain firm, terminal demand has improved, and the "anti - involution" policy has boosted market sentiment, driving the rubber market higher [8][83] - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, while aggressive investors can consider buying on dips [9][84] Summary by Directory Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 ranged from 13,900 to 14,185 yuan/ton, showing an upward - trending oscillation and a slight overall increase. As of the close on July 11, 2025, it closed at 14,360 yuan/ton, up 355 points or 2.53% for the week [6][13] Spot Price - As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,350 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 19,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [18] - As of July 11, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,280 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [21] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two slightly shrank. As of July 11, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 10 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton narrower than the previous week [24] - As of July 11, 2025, both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber increased slightly compared to the previous week [26] Important Market Information - Trump has imposed tariffs on 25 trading partners in four batches, with tax rates ranging from 20% to 50% [28] - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Some believe in multiple rate cuts this year, while others are cautious due to tariff - induced inflation concerns [27][29][30] - China's June CPI rose year - on - year, and PPI declined month - on - month. The auto market showed signs of recovery in June [32][33][34] Supply - side Situation - As of May 31, 2025, the total output of natural rubber in major producing countries was 722,700 tons, an increase of 217,500 tons or 43.05% from the previous month [40] - As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly output of synthetic rubber was 699,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%; the cumulative output was 3.534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [44][48] - As of May 31, 2025, China's imports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 9,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.21% [51] Demand - side Situation - As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 72.92%, up 2.51% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 64.56%, up 0.81% from the previous week [54] - As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% and a month - on - month increase of 1.14%; monthly sales were 2.6863 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.15% and a month - on - month increase of 3.74% [58][61] - As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 88,769 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.59% and a month - on - month increase of 1.26% [66] - As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 101.993 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [69] - As of May 31, 2025, China's exports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 61.82 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 7.17% [74] Inventory - side Situation - As of July 11, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 188,690 tons, a decrease of 160 tons from the previous week [81] - As of July 6, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 200 tons or 0.02%; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 791,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 502,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45% [81] - As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons or 0.05%; the bonded area inventory was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 2.36%; the general trade inventory was 553,600 tons, an increase of 0.40% [81] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period. Recent weather disturbances in major producing areas have restricted glue output, but there is a strong expectation of increased supply later. In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41% [82] - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of tire enterprises rebounded. The terminal auto market showed signs of recovery in June, and consumption - boosting policies were continuously introduced. In May 2025, China's tire exports increased year - on - year [82] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, while China's natural rubber social inventory and Qingdao's total inventory changed little [82] 后市展望 - The price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short - term. Key factors to watch include weather in major rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, zero - tariff policy progress, EU anti - dumping investigation updates, and Sino - US tariff changes [83] Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will fluctuate and strengthen in the short - term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, while aggressive investors can consider buying on dips [9][84]