Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Report Core View - The LPG fundamental is currently weak, with a dull market atmosphere. The PG main contract shows some signs of stabilization after continuous declines, and there is short - term support from the crude oil side. However, the expected decline in August CP prices suppresses the market. The overall supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and there is limited positive news [1] - The strategy for the LPG market is to expect a sideways movement, and attention should be paid to the bottom - building signals on the trading board [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On July 28, the regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4570 - 4650 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4190 - 4510 yuan/ton; North China market, 4530 - 4640 yuan/ton; East China market, 4280 - 4600 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4500 - 4690 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4050 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market, 4448 - 4550 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of August 2025, the CIF prices of frozen LPG in East China were propane at 546 dollars/ton (down 6 dollars/ton) and butane at 523 dollars/ton (down 6 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4296 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/ton) and 4115 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/ton) in RMB respectively. In South China, propane was at 539 dollars/ton (down 8 dollars/ton) and butane at 516 dollars/ton (down 10 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4241 yuan/ton (down 58 yuan/ton) and 4060 yuan/ton (down 74 yuan/ton) in RMB respectively [1] - The LPG fundamental is weak, with a dull market atmosphere. Although the PG main contract shows some signs of stabilization after continuous declines and there is short - term support from the crude oil side, the expected decline in August CP prices suppresses the market. Overseas supply remains abundant, domestic supply is sufficient, and demand is weak [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways movement, pay attention to the bottom - building signals on the trading board; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-29 多单集中平仓，碳酸锂盘面触及跌停 市场分析 2025-07-28，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于73200元/吨，收于73120元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌-7.98%。当日 成交量为1005395手，持仓量为378472手，前一交易日持仓量491088手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-3720元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单12276手，较上个交易日变化280手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价72500-75300元/吨，较前一交易日变化1000元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价70900-72500元/吨，较前一交易日变化1000元/吨。6%锂精矿价格845美元/吨，较前一日变化-15美元/吨。 从 市场成交情况来看，前期碳酸锂期货价格突破8万元/吨关口，下游材料企业普遍持观望态度，接货意愿极度低迷。 而期货价格大幅回调后，下游采购需求明显释放，市场询价活跃度显著提升，成交放量推动现货价格重心稳步上 移。 策略 盘面封死跌停，主要受商品整体大跌以及多单挤兑影响。上周市场炒作矿端审批问题可能导致相关矿停产，碳酸 锂价格快速且大幅拉涨，持仓 ...

丙烯聚烯烃日报 | 2025-07-29 市场情绪转弱，烯烃震荡走低 市场分析 丙烯方面，丙烯主力合约收盘价6570元/吨（-87），丙烯华东现货价6425元/吨（-50），丙烯华北现货价6240元/吨（+0）， 丙烯华东基差-145元/吨（+37），丙烯华北基差-330元/吨（+87）。丙烯开工率74%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑 油CFR190美元/吨（-4），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR122美元/吨（+11），进口利润-124元/吨（-13），厂内库存31750吨 （+1520）。 丙烯下游方面，PP粉开工率39%（+1.51%），生产利润205元/吨（-65）；环氧丙烷开工率73%（+0%），生产利润-51 元/吨（-49）；正丁醇开工率88%（-3%），生产利润69元/吨（+21）；辛醇开工率78%（-3%），生产利润918元/吨（-17）； 丙烯酸开工率80%（+0%），生产利润903元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率77%（+1%），生产利润-603元/吨（+31）；酚 酮开工率78%（-3%），生产利润-667元/吨（+25）。 聚烯烃方面，L主力合约收盘价7335元/吨（-121），PP ...

FICC日报 | 2025-07-29 商品波动加剧，关注中美经贸会谈 市场分析 关注国内重要会议。上半年国内经济仍具韧性，中国上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，高于全年预期目标5%，财政发力 和"抢出口"现象为上半年经济数据提供支撑，但也对应着政策迫切性有所下降。中国6月出口表现亮眼，中美关税 缓和下，新一轮"抢出口"支撑需求；中国6月社零同比增速放缓至4.8%，主要受部分地区"两新"政策补贴断档拖累， 后续政策补贴有望继续下达支撑国内消费。投资方面，基建投资和制造业投资均明显回落，整体固定投资走弱， 地产销售走弱对整个地产链条拖累风险仍存。后续关注7月政治局会议进一步加码稳增长政策的可能。7月28日，A 股全天震荡上涨，三大股指集体收高，创业板涨近1%，医药股全天活跃。商品方面，国内商品期货大面积下跌， 焦煤、焦炭、玻璃、纯碱、工业硅、碳酸锂等纷纷跌停，也使得A股钢铁、煤炭板块走势。债市方面，国内期货普 遍走高，30年期主力合约涨0.56%。 "反内卷"的进展跟踪。7月以来，中央财经委、工信部等部门再次强调治理企业低价无序竞争，15日中钢协召开钢 铁工业规划部长会，研究建立产能治理新机制，光伏、锂电池、汽车、 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage: SHFE Aluminum Positive Spread, Long AD11 and Short AL11 [6] Group 2: Core Views - For electrolytic aluminum, last week's lack of upward price elasticity was due to the consumption off - season and inventory accumulation. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan has no impact on the supply side, but policy support for the consumption side should be watched. There is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 contract, and the long - term logic is supply constraints and expected consumption growth [3]. - For alumina, the spot market shows that the actual ex - factory price has declined despite higher tender prices. Supply is increasing due to profit incentives, with continued inventory accumulation. There are issues with warehouse receipts, and the speed of registering warehouse receipts needs further observation [3][4]. - For aluminum alloy, it is in the consumption off - season, with prices following aluminum. Tight scrap and primary aluminum supply support prices, and there are cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot and Futures - Aluminum spot: On July 28, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,660 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,470 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,650 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum futures: On July 28, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 20,765 yuan/ton, closed at 20,615 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton (-0.65%) from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 188,322 lots, up 44,751 lots, and positions were 285,172 lots, down 16,798 lots [1]. - Aluminum inventory: As of July 28, 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 533,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory was 454,275 tons, up 3,450 tons from the previous day [1]. Alumina Spot and Futures - Alumina spot: On July 28, 2025, SMM alumina prices were 3,240 yuan/ton in Shanxi, 3,220 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,300 yuan/ton in Guangxi, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. - Alumina futures: On July 28, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 3,404 yuan/ton, closed at 3,243 yuan/ton, down 217 yuan/ton (-6.27%) from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 1,003,218 lots, up 98,197 lots, and positions were 170,310 lots, down 22,776 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Inventory - Aluminum alloy price: On July 28, 2025, the Baotai civil primary aluminum purchase price was 15,100 yuan/ton, the mechanical primary aluminum purchase price was 15,300 yuan/ton, and the ADC12 Baotai quote was 19,600 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous day. The ADC12 - A00 spread in East China was - 960 yuan/ton [2]. - Aluminum alloy inventory: The aluminum alloy social inventory was 43,200 tons, up 6,000 tons week - on - week; the in - factory inventory was 63,600 tons, down 300 tons week - on - week; the total inventory was 106,800 tons, up 5,700 tons week - on - week [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and the demand in the spot market has not improved significantly, with mainly rigid - demand procurement. The cost of imported ore TC is rising, and the smelting profit is increasing, leading to an expected increase in supply. Although the downstream consumption shows some resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, resulting in a continuous increase in social inventories. After the market sentiment fades, zinc prices are expected to return to the fundamental logic, and due to the consumption off - season and supply pressure, zinc prices face significant pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is - 1.96 dollars/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped 120 yuan/ton to 22650 yuan/ton, and its premium rose 35 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell 160 yuan/ton to 22600 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased 5 yuan/ton to - 95 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price declined 120 yuan/ton to 22600 yuan/ton, and its premium increased 35 yuan/ton to - 95 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures**: On July 28, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22905 yuan/ton, closed at 22645 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 193107 lots, an increase of 41021 lots, and the position was 124461 lots, a decrease of 4767 lots. The highest price reached 22965 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22575 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of July 28, 2025, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 103700 tons, an increase of 11000 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory was 115500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons from the previous trading day [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Cost**: The new - month tender price of domestic ore has not been determined, while the imported ore TC is still rising, with the highest offer reaching 85 dollars/ton, and the smelting profit is increasing. The smelting plants have sufficient raw material reserves and low enthusiasm for ore procurement, so the TC is expected to continue rising [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The downstream consumption shows some resilience, but the high growth on the supply side leads to an increase in social inventories, and this trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year. Considering the consumption off - season and supply pressure, zinc prices face significant pressure [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5].

石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-29 降雨天气限制终端需求，现货情绪偏谨慎 市场分析 1、7月28日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3569元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌38元/吨，跌幅 1.05%；持仓162463手，环比下降8904手，成交224891手，环比上涨18997手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3870—4086元/吨；山东，3600—4070元/吨；华南，3560—3590元/吨； 华东，3660—3800元/吨。 近期BU盘面走势有转弱迹象，反映市场上方存在阻力，稀释沥青原料供应增加的预期对沥青成本端形成一定压制， 但整体未脱离区间运行的状态，下行趋势同样不明显。昨日西北、华北以及川渝市场沥青现货价格小幅上涨，东 北和山东地区沥青现货价格有所下跌，其余区域沥青现货价格均以持稳为主，整体市场情绪偏谨慎。就沥青自身 基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，降雨天气对终端需求释放形成阻碍，不过库存仍处于低位，还未出现明显 累库信号，市场短期压力有限，但上行驱动不足。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market rebounded after a significant adjustment due to short - term redemption pressure on bond funds and rising sentiment in the equity market. The recent slowdown in the stock market's upward trend and a decline in market risk appetite have contributed to the bond market's recovery [1][2]. - In the short term, the bond market remains in a balance between expectations of loose policies and weak economic recovery, with limited downward space for yields. In the medium term, attention should be paid to fluctuations caused by increased supply and economic data repair [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; monthly PPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan (+0.95%); M2 year - on - year was 8.30%, up 0.40% (+5.06%); manufacturing PMI was 49.70%, up 0.20% (+0.40%) [8]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 98.64, up 0.97 (+0.99%); the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1671, up 0.005 (+0.07%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.60, down 0.02 (-1.48%); DR007 was 1.58, down 0.07 (-4.34%); R007 was 1.68, up 0.04 (+2.35%); the yield of 3 - month AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.57, down 0.02 (-1.24%); the 1 - year AA - AAA credit spread was 0.08, down 0.01 (-1.24%) [8]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific content provided other than the source of data and some figures about the market, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, etc. [9][11] III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - On July 28, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 495.8 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.467%, 1.596%, 1.635%, and 1.549% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently rebounded [1][2]. IV. Spread Overview No specific numerical or detailed analysis content provided other than the introduction of relevant figures, such as the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures and the term spread between spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [37][39]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific analysis content provided other than the introduction of relevant figures, such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, etc. [45][48] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific analysis content provided other than the introduction of relevant figures, such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, etc. [55][58] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific analysis content provided other than the introduction of relevant figures, such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, etc. [63][66] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific analysis content provided other than the introduction of relevant figures, such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, etc. [70][73] 4. Strategies - **Unilateral**: As the repurchase rate rebounds and the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates, the 2509 contract is neutral [3]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [3]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg sectors is neutral [3][5] 2. Core Views - In the pig market, the future average weight of slaughtered pigs may further decline, and the slaughter volume is likely to increase. The short - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is difficult to change, and attention should be paid to policy - side factors [2] - In the egg market, as it enters the seasonal consumption peak, the willingness of breeding enterprises to cull laying hens decreases, and the culling volume may further decline. With cost support and increased demand after the plum - rain season in the South, the loss situation of laying hens is expected to improve [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract yesterday was 14,125 yuan/ton, a change of - 260 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.81% [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 13.89 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 14.17 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.41 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.10 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on July 28: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 112.62, down 0.11 points from last Friday. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.51 yuan/kg, down 1.7% from last Friday; beef was 64.23 yuan/kg, up 0.9%; mutton was 59.40 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; eggs were 7.65 yuan/kg, up 1.9%; white - striped chickens were 17.44 yuan/kg, up 0.6% [1] Market Analysis - The future average weight of slaughtered pigs may decline, and the slaughter volume may increase. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has not widened, and secondary fattening has little chance to enter the market. The short - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is difficult to change, and attention should be paid to policy factors [2] Strategy - Neutral [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2509 contract yesterday was 3,576 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 52 yuan from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.43% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.98 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.18 yuan; in Shandong, it was 3.25 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.20 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.93 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.25 yuan [3] - On July 28, the national production - link inventory was 0.6 days, an increase of 0.04 days from yesterday, an increase of 7.14%. The circulation - link inventory was 0.92 days, an increase of 0.07 days from yesterday, an increase of 8.24% [3] Market Analysis - Supply: As the egg price has been rising this week and it is entering the seasonal consumption peak, the willingness of breeding enterprises to cull laying hens decreases, and the culling volume and culling age have changed. The future culling volume may further decline [4] - Demand: Traders are actively purchasing, and the inventory at the breeding end has decreased significantly. With cost support and increased demand after the plum - rain season in the South, the loss situation of laying hens is expected to improve [4] Strategy - Neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall operation of general public budget revenue in the first half of 2025 was weak, with insufficient tax recovery momentum and limited support from non - tax revenue. The economic recovery foundation is still unstable, and the pressure on fiscal revenue growth remains significant. Meanwhile, the general public budget expenditure accelerated its expansion, focusing on people's livelihood and innovation, but the overall expenditure progress was slightly lower than the annual budget [3][4]. - The government - funded budget revenue in the first half of 2025 was under pressure, especially the land transfer revenue. In the context of the continuous adjustment of the real estate market, the growth of fund revenue lacks stable support. However, the government - funded budget expenditure accelerated, showing an active orientation of fiscal policies to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs General Public Budget Revenue - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 1.15566 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Tax revenue was 929.15 billion yuan, down 1.2% year - on - year, while non - tax revenue was 226.51 billion yuan, up 3.7% year - on - year. Central revenue was 485.89 billion yuan, down 2.8% year - on - year, and local revenue was 669.77 billion yuan, up 1.6% year - on - year [35]. - Main tax items: domestic VAT was 363.93 billion yuan, up 2.8% year - on - year; domestic consumption tax was 89.8 billion yuan, up 1.7% year - on - year; enterprise income tax was 249.1 billion yuan, down 1.9% year - on - year; personal income tax was 79.45 billion yuan, up 8% year - on - year; export tax rebates were 127.02 billion yuan, up 11.6% year - on - year; etc [36][37][38][39][40]. General Public Budget Expenditure - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 1.41271 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. Central expenditure was 199.14 billion yuan, up 9% year - on - year, and local expenditure was 1.21357 trillion yuan, up 2.6% year - on - year [46]. - Main expenditure items: education expenditure was 214.83 billion yuan, up 5.9% year - on - year; science and technology expenditure was 47.9 billion yuan, up 9.1% year - on - year; social security and employment expenditure was 245.04 billion yuan, up 9.2% year - on - year; etc [47][48][50]. Government - Funded Budget Revenue - In the first half of 2025, the national government - funded budget revenue was 194.42 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Central revenue was 21.73 billion yuan, up 4.8% year - on - year, and local revenue was 172.69 billion yuan, down 3.2% year - on - year. The state - owned land use right transfer income was 142.71 billion yuan, down 6.5% year - on - year [57]. Government - Funded Budget Expenditure - In the first half of 2025, the national government - funded budget expenditure was 462.73 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 30%. Central expenditure was 63.08 billion yuan, up 6.2 times year - on - year, and local expenditure was 399.65 billion yuan, up 15.1% year - on - year. The expenditure related to the state - owned land use right transfer income was 206.01 billion yuan, down 6.4% year - on - year [58][59].