市场要闻与重要数据 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-08 白宫再度呼吁干预鲍威尔的立场 降息概率再加大 昨日，特朗普向14国发出关税信函，8月1日起对日韩进口商品征收25%的关税，对马来西亚、南非、印尼、缅甸、 泰国等征收25%至40%的关税，任何与金砖国家反美政策结盟的国家，关税再加10%，并签署行政令将对等关税 暂缓期延长至8月1日；白宫官员称不会将特定国家关税与行业关税叠加。此外，美联储主席热门候选人沃什表示， 应降息至更低水平，白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗呼也吁美联储理事会对鲍威尔的立场采取干预措施。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-07-07，沪金主力合约开于 775.38元/克，收于 771.30元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.74%。当日成交量为 190256手，持仓量为 175760手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 771.66 元/克，收于 775.68 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.36%。 2025-07-07，沪银主力合约开于 8919元/千克，收于 8872元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 261611手，持仓量 229481手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,856 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-08 供需延续宽松，市场驱动不足 市场分析 1、\t7月7日地区价格：山东市场，4550-4650；东北市场，4120-4310；华北市场，4460-4650；华东市场，4430-4650； 沿江市场，4620-4740；西北市场，4200-4400；华南市场，4570-4720。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷559美元/吨，跌1美元/吨，丁烷527美元/吨，跌1美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4401元/吨，跌9元/吨，丁烷4149元/吨，跌9元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t（2025年8月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷557美元/吨，跌1美元/吨，丁烷527美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4385元/吨，跌9元/吨，丁烷4149元/吨，跌9元/吨。数据来源：卓创资讯） 随着中东局势缓和，地缘溢价大幅回落，LPG盘面回到窄幅震荡状态，市场驱动不足。现货方面，山东、华北区 域有所下跌，其余区域维稳，下游刚需采购，氛围温和。供应方面，OPEC计划增产，海外供应维持充裕；国内供 尚可，整体供应充足。需求方面，民 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows an oscillating trend. After major manufacturers cut production, the supply - side pressure decreases, the southwest region's operation rate is lower than in previous years, and the consumption side increases. The subsequent focus should be on the operation status of major manufacturers and policy disturbances [2]. - Recently, polysilicon enterprises have actively raised spot quotes in response to the national anti - involution policy. Currently, there are few actual transactions, and terminal installation is expected to decline significantly. The futures market has continuously risen due to policy and capital sentiment. Future attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and price transmission [6]. Group 3: Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On July 7, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak oscillating trend. The main contract 2509 opened at 7980 yuan/ton and closed at 8045 yuan/ton, a change of 55 yuan/ton (0.69%) from the previous settlement. As of the close, the position of the 2509 main contract was 384,707 lots, and on July 8, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 51,349 lots, a change of - 352 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8700 - 8800 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8200 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8000 - 8100 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming and Sichuan decreased, while those in Huangpu Port, Tianjin, the Northwest, Shanghai, and Xinjiang remained stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained stable [1]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10300 - 10600 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic organic silicon DMC production increased by 13.75% month - on - month and decreased by 1.60% year - on - year. In July, although the operation rate of some domestic monomer enterprises decreased, the overall impact was limited, and the estimated organic silicon production in July increased by 1.53% month - on - month [1]. Polysilicon - On July 7, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures maintained an oscillating pattern, opening at 35100 yuan/ton and closing at 36515 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 2.86% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 105,230 lots (77,334 lots the previous day), and the trading volume on that day was 440,264 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The quoted price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 36.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased slightly. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 27.20 (a month - on - month change of 0.74%), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.22GW (a month - on - month change of - 4.43%), the weekly polysilicon production was 24,000.00 tons (a month - on - month change of 1.69%), and the silicon wafer production was 11.90GW (a month - on - month change of - 11.46%) [3]. Silicon Wafers - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.87 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.19 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 0.99 yuan/piece. Affected by the policy orientation of the polysilicon end, the downstream silicon wafer market had a turning point, and the market trading atmosphere heated up, with stronger trading desire. However, enterprises remained cautious about the subsequent trend of the silicon wafer market [5]. Battery Cells - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.23 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.25 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. Components - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W [5]. Group 4: Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices [2]. - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Polysilicon - If the futures price corrects and the polysilicon price is smoothly transmitted downstream to silicon wafers and components, long positions can be laid out at low prices [6]. - Unilateral: None [8] - Inter - period: None [8] - Cross - variety: None [8] - Spot - futures: None [8] - Options: None [8] Group 5: Factors to Monitor - Resumption and new capacity commissioning in the Northwest and Southwest regions [4] - Changes in the operation rate of polysilicon enterprises [4] - Policy disturbances [4] - Macroeconomic and capital sentiment [4] - Operation status of organic silicon enterprises [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - A trend of inventory accumulation may have formed. After the reaction of macro - bullish factors, the deviation from the fundamentals may pull the zinc price back, and attention should be paid to changes in social inventory [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium was -$21.64 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 140 yuan per ton to 22,270 yuan per ton, with the premium unchanged at 90 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell by 150 yuan per ton to 22,200 yuan per ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan per ton to 20 yuan per ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price declined by 140 yuan per ton to 22,200 yuan per ton, with the premium unchanged at 20 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On July 7, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,340 yuan per ton and closed at 22,090 yuan per ton, down 260 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 160,506 lots, an increase of 6,935 lots, and the open interest was 126,532 lots, a decrease of 1,468 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,040 - 22,360 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of July 7, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 89,100 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons from the previous week. The LME zinc inventory was 110,600 tons, a decrease of 1,725 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The absolute price declined, increasing downstream point - pricing enthusiasm and improving market transactions, but the spot premium did not improve significantly. After the absolute price rose, spot market transactions became more sluggish, and the spot premium dropped rapidly [4] - **Supply**: In June, supply increased by 7.2% year - on - year. The expected output in July remains as high as 590,000 tons, with continuous supply pressure. The impact of the smelting strike in Peru overseas has been resolved [4] - **Inventory**: The increase in social inventory has widened, and a trend of inventory accumulation may have formed. The finished product inventory of smelters and zinc alloy inventory have increased significantly, the alloy operating rate has started to decline, and a negative feedback from invisible inventory may occur [4] - **Cost**: The TC at the mine end has further increased, expanding smelting profits and further boosting smelting enthusiasm, resulting in continuous supply pressure [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR, and VIX data for various types of options on July 7, 2025 [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Option Trading Volume - On July 7, 2025, the trading volumes of different options were as follows: 683,800 contracts for SSE 50 ETF options; 720,900 contracts for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market); 823,100 contracts for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market); 60,500 contracts for Shenzhen 100 ETF options; 870,800 contracts for ChiNext ETF options; 22,600 contracts for SSE 50 index options; 56,500 contracts for CSI 300 index options; and 132,800 contracts for CSI 1000 options [1] Option PCR - The PCR data of different options on July 7, 2025, showed that the turnover PCR and position PCR of each option had different degrees of change. For example, the turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was 0.83, with a month - on - month change of +0.23; the position PCR was 1.03, with a month - on - month change of - 0.04 [2] Option VIX - The VIX data of different options on July 7, 2025, showed an upward trend across the board. For example, the VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was 14.54%, with a month - on - month change of +0.25%; the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 14.90%, with a month - on - month change of +0.44% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the freight rate for the 8 - month contract has likely appeared, and it is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the freight rate follow - up of other shipping companies, especially whether the PA Alliance will adjust prices [4]. - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The uncertainty lies in the possible resumption of the Suez Canal [5]. - In December, the freight rate of the Far East - Europe route is usually higher than that in October. However, the risk is whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation, which may challenge the seasonal pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Analysis - Online quotes of different alliances for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route vary by shipping company and shipping period. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's price for week 29 is 1785/2990; in the MSC + Premier Alliance, MSC's 7 - month upper - half - month shipping period quote is 2180/3640 [1]. II. Geopolitical Situation - The Houthi armed forces in Yemen launched a joint military operation on the 7th, using missiles and drones to attack important targets in Israel in response to the Israeli army's attacks on Yemeni ports and power stations [2]. III. Shipping Capacity - The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining 4 weeks of July is 294,100 TEU, and the monthly average weekly shipping capacity in August is 305,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August [3]. IV. Contract Analysis - **8 - month contract**: The freight rate is likely to peak and decline. The top of the freight rate has probably emerged, and the current market average price in the first half of July is around $3300/FEU. The settlement price of the 8 - month contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25 [4]. - **10 - month contract**: It is an off - season contract mainly for short - allocation. The focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The uncertainty is whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation before October [5]. - **12 - month contract**: In normal years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. The risk is the possible resumption of the Suez Canal [7]. V. Shipping Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 8, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 80,726.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 30,740.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as EC2602 at 1323.90 and EC2508 at 1888.50 [7]. - On July 4, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $2101.00/TEU, and on July 7, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2258.04 points [7]. VI. Container Ship Delivery - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 6, 2025, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 11.12 million TEU [8]. VII. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract fluctuates. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short on the 10 - month contract [9].

Market Analysis - The Politburo meeting will be held in July. In May, domestic data was mixed, with investment data weakening, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, and only consumption showed resilience. China's manufacturing PMI rebounded in June, but the foundation for economic stabilization needs to be consolidated. The central bank increased its gold holdings for the 8th consecutive month in June, and foreign exchange reserves increased steadily. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further policies to stabilize growth at the July Politburo meeting. Trump will send tariff letters on July 7 (ET), with new tariffs ranging from 10% - 70%, and the "tariffs effective on August 1" may imply a delay in the negotiation deadline [2]. Macro - inflation - Trump signed the "Great" tax and spending bill, which may increase the US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, marking a shift from "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary policy" to an "easy - to - loosen, hard - to - tighten" policy stage. The domestic Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting reignited market inflation trading. However, overseas, the Fed's path to restarting easing is not smooth, and the Treasury's bond issuance will absorb market liquidity. In China, more detailed industry production - cut policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading, otherwise, the de - stocking cycle with weak demand will cause fluctuations [3]. Commodity Sectors - The black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the domestic supply - side. The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists, and the energy market has a short - term end of geopolitical premium and a mid - term supply - abundant outlook. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, accelerating its strategy to regain market share. Agricultural products have limited short - term fluctuations, and on July 7, spot gold fell by about $10, with an intraday decline of 1.15% [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, industrial products should be allocated on dips [5]. Key News - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.3174 trillion at the end of June, an increase of $32.2 billion from May, with an increase rate of 0.98%. Trump will send tariff letters and agreements on July 7 (ET), and the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" will take effect on August 1 for countries without agreements. The Kremlin is aware of Trump's remarks about imposing additional tariffs on BRICS countries [2][6].

苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存17.40万吨（-0.30万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费152美元/吨（+0美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费136美元/吨（+2美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差95.7美元/吨（-2.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-65元/吨（+10元/ 吨）。 苯乙烯日报 | 2025-07-08 苯乙烯港口持续累库 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差303元/吨（+13元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润166元/吨（+43元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存111500吨（+12700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存39000吨（+7700吨），处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开工率80.0%（-0.1%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润36元/吨（-60元/吨），PS生产利润-264元/吨（-10元/吨），ABS生产利润412元/吨（-55 元/吨）。EPS开工率55.88%（-3.84%），PS开工率52.40%（-5.00%），ABS开工率65.04%（-0.96%），下游开工季节 性低位。 市场分析 纯苯方面，韩国后续发往中国压力仍大；国产开工仍偏高，虽然下游CPL开工有所回升 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-08 氧化铝交割风险正在进行中 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20640元/吨，较上一交易日下跌130元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日持平于-40元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20510元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨10元/ 吨至-160元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20590元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨15元/吨至-75元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-07日沪铝主力合约开于20595元/吨，收于20410元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌230元/ 吨，跌幅-1.11%，最高价达20625元/吨，最低价达到20385元/吨。全天交易日成交148670手，较上一交易日增 加34299手，全天交易日持仓255324手，较上一交易日减少16863手。 电解铝：绝对价格大幅度回落，现货升水底部震荡，社会库存出现继续小幅增加。冶炼利润在消费淡季扩大至4000 元/吨，长期来看在供给受限的背景下，行业利润的高企不是限制铝价上涨的因素，短期来看铝价的进一步上涨需 要宏观向好+微观消费走强共振。当前正值消费淡季，社会库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, with nickel ore prices slightly decreasing, an increase in intermediate product supply, the resurgence of tariff issues, and average market demand, it is expected that nickel prices will face pressure in the near - term and seek support downward. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For stainless steel, due to steel mill and nickel - iron production cuts, a slight decline in nickel ore prices, and the market being in the off - season with average spot transactions, it is expected that stainless steel will oscillate weakly within a range in the near - term, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On July 7, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2508 opened at 121,730 yuan/ton and closed at 120,540 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.58% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 99,191 lots, and the open interest was 69,366 lots. The contract showed a downward trend with a large negative line on the daily chart, with slightly lower trading volume and slightly higher open interest compared to the previous day [1][2]. - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Trump announced that the US government would release tariff letters or agreements with trading partners at 12:00 noon on July 7, and planned to impose up to 70% tariffs on some countries' goods starting from August 1. Any country aligning with the BRICS anti - US policy would face an additional 10% tariff. In June, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. As of the end of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves were 3.3174 trillion US dollars, up 3.22 billion US dollars from the end of May, an increase of 0.98% [2]. - **Supply - Side Factors**: In the Philippines, heavy rainfall and seasonal typhoons in the Surigao mining area slowed down shipping efficiency. In Indonesia, the shortage of nickel ore supply was alleviated due to production cuts at local smelters. In June 2025, Indonesia's ferronickel metal production was 24,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.28%. The estimated ferronickel metal production in July was 26,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.31%. In June 2025, Indonesia's nickel wet - process intermediate product nickel metal production was 38,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.14% and a year - on - year increase of 42.98%. The estimated production in July was 40,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.98% and a year - on - year increase of 48.41% [2]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation was about 1,500 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day, and the prices of mainstream brands in the market also decreased accordingly. The spot supply of refined nickel was sufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed, with average spot transactions. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 300 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 20,832 (- 227.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 202,470 (0) tons [2]. 3.2 Nickel Strategy - **Unilateral**: Mainly operate within a range. - **Cross - period**: None. - **Cross - variety**: None. - **Futures - Spot**: None. - **Options**: None [3]. 3.3 Stainless Steel Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On July 7, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2508 opened at 12,760 yuan/ton and closed at 12,640 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 111,639 lots, and the open interest was 90,442 lots. The contract showed a downward trend with a medium - sized negative line on the daily chart, with slightly higher trading volume and open interest compared to the previous day [4]. - **Supply - Side Factors**: Similar to the nickel market, heavy rainfall and typhoons in the Philippines' Surigao mining area affected shipping. In Indonesia, the nickel ore supply shortage was alleviated by production cuts. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were converted to produce ferronickel, and some small smelters cut production. Some domestic smelters also stopped production. Nickel - iron quotes were mainly in the range of 915 - 920 yuan/nickel (including bottom - hold tax) [4]. - **Spot Market**: The stainless - steel futures market was weak, with low market inquiry activity and insufficient transaction follow - up. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,725 yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was also 12,725 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 125 - 275 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 907.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. 3.4 Stainless Steel Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Cross - period**: None. - **Cross - variety**: None. - **Futures - Spot**: None. - **Options**: None [5].