农产品日报 | 2025-09-18 西部早富士交易收尾，红枣关注减产幅度 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约8272元/吨，较前一日变动+3元/吨，幅度+0.04%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-672，较前一日变动-3；陕西洛川70# 以上半商 品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01+1328，较前一日变动-3。 策略 中性。当前库存水平处于低位，价格存在底部支撑，新季上量好货价格偏高，对库存苹果走货有一定影响，预计 短期价格仍表现稳定。 风险 产区天气情况、货源质量问题、销区走货情况 红枣观点 市场要闻与重要数据 近期市场资讯，西部近期多雨天气，晚富士尚未脱袋，早熟富士交易陆续收尾，剩余货源质量出现分化，好货剩 余不多，多按货给价；采青富士陆续脱袋等待上色。山东产区红将军好货成交不多，上色不佳问题存在，库存富 士成交较前略放缓，客商拿货多以好货及性价比很高的货源为主。陕西延安洛川产区早熟富士70#以上市场主流价 格3.8-4.1元/斤，一般货3.5-3.7元/斤 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for soybeans is neutral [3][5] - The investment rating for peanuts is neutral [3][5] 2. Core Views - The soybean market is at a critical juncture between new and old grains, with new beans in Northeast China expected to be listed on a large - scale next week. The overall growth of soybeans is good, and there are expectations of a bumper harvest. The price of early - maturing new beans is not yet representative, and attention should be paid to the progress of new grain listing. The soybean futures price has declined, and the spot basis has increased [1][2] - The peanut market has a slow release of high - quality new peanut supplies due to weather factors, while the supply of new peanuts with poor moisture and quality may increase. The demand for peanuts is lackluster, with weakened double - festival stocking effects, reluctance of traders to purchase in large quantities, and major oil mills not starting seasonal procurement. The peanut futures price is oscillating strongly, and the spot price has a slight increase [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean No. 1 2511 contract yesterday was 3895.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.00 yuan/ton (-0.74%) from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The basis of edible soybean spot is A11 + 325, an increase of 29 (+32.14%) from the previous day. The prices of national standard first - class soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained stable compared to the previous day [1] - **Market Information**: High - oil soybeans in the Northeast soybean market are being listed in small quantities. Due to rainy weather, the purchase volume is small. Most enterprises plan to start purchasing after the large - scale listing at the end of the month. The overall growth of soybeans is good, with some areas having average growth, and there are expectations of a bumper harvest of new grains [1] Soybean Strategy - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [3] Peanut Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 7822.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 26.00 yuan/ton (+0.33%) from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: The average spot price of peanuts is 8300.00 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.00 yuan/ton (+0.12%), and the spot basis is PK10 + 378.00, a month - on - month decrease of 26.00 (-6.44%). The average price of general - quality peanuts in the national peanut market is 4.15 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/jin [3] - **Market Information**: The release of high - quality new peanut supplies is slow due to weather. The double - festival stocking effect is weakened, traders are reluctant to purchase in large quantities, and major oil mills have not started seasonal procurement. The demand side lacks support, and the market is waiting for price clarity [3][4] Peanut Strategy - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [5] Peanut Risk - The risk for peanuts is the weakening of demand [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The PTA maintenance plans have increased under low processing fees, such as Hengli and Dushan Energy planning to conduct maintenance in October and November respectively. The PTA futures closed up in a volatile manner on Wednesday, the negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and individual mainstream suppliers reduced the contract supply in October, leading to a slight strengthening of the spot basis [1]. - In terms of the cost side, the oil price has been fluctuating recently, and attention should be paid to the Russia-Ukraine situation. The oil price has rebounded since last Friday. On the one hand, the Russia-Ukraine negotiations have been suspended again. On the other hand, the US military carried out a military operation in the offshore area of Venezuela, which raised concerns about Venezuela's national security. The PXN was 229 US dollars/ton (a month-on-month change of +1.63 US dollars/ton) the day before last. The negotiation on the floating price of PX was deadlocked, and the PXN weakened to 230 US dollars/ton and then fluctuated. Recently, the PX load in China has gradually recovered. With the increase in PTA maintenance, the PX balance sheet in September has changed from destocking to a loose balance, but the overall PX inventory is still at a low level. As the PTA devices resume operation, the PX will turn to destocking again. Considering the rigid demand for PX from new PTA devices, there is support below the PXN. Continued attention should be paid to window negotiations and warehouse receipt situations [2]. - In terms of TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract was -77 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +3 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee was 130 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -1 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main contract's disk was 332 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +6 yuan/ton). The PTA load is increasing from a low level, and the near-term destocking fundamentals are acceptable. However, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to the expected commissioning of new devices. Recently, mainstream suppliers have been selling goods, and the market's spot supply is relatively abundant. At the same time, the recovery of the demand side is limited, and the order connection is insufficient under high inventory. The increase in polyester load is limited [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 91.6% (a month-on-month increase of 0.3%). The current demand shows signs of recovery, but the order connection is insufficient, mainly with local scattered orders. The high inventory of grey fabrics is being depleted slowly. The market's expectation for the subsequent demand level is neutral to pessimistic. Most terminal raw material purchases maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude, digesting previous stocks while following up with rigid demand. In terms of polyester load, the inventory of filament is not high but gradually accumulating. It is expected that the load of filament and staple fiber will continue to stabilize and slightly rebound in September. The load of bottle chips is expected to increase slightly, but the increase may be limited. It is expected that the polyester load will stabilize and slightly rebound in September, with the average monthly load likely to be below 91.5% [3]. - In terms of PF, the spot production profit was 175 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -6 yuan/ton). Direct-spun polyester staple fiber fluctuated and consolidated following the raw materials, and the load continued to increase slightly. As the price difference between high and low prices in the market narrowed, factory sales improved, inventory decreased, the demand for staple fiber at a low price was acceptable, the factory inventory was low, and currently, the inventory held by traders was small. In the short term, the supply-demand situation of direct-spun polyester staple fiber was better than that of the raw material side. Due to the relatively weak performance of raw materials, the processing margin of direct-spun polyester staple fiber expanded to over 1000 [3]. - In terms of PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips was 454 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -11 yuan/ton). The fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much. The current order receipt and shipment performance of bottle chips are average. It is reported that the industry's overall target of 20% production reduction and suspension in September remains unchanged. It is expected that the subsequent increase in bottle chip load will be limited, the overall inventory pressure of factories has decreased, and the processing fee of polyester bottle chips is expected to maintain small fluctuations. Under the pressure of the commissioning of the new Fuhai device in the future, the supply-demand pressure is still relatively large, and production reduction is needed for adjustment. It is expected that the spot processing fee of bottle chips will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of raw material prices [4]. - Strategy: For single-sided trading, the ratings for PX/PTA/PF/PR are neutral. For PX, since August, PX devices have been restarted intensively. With the increase in PTA maintenance, the fundamentals have weakened month-on-month, and the PXN has loosened. However, with low inventory and the restart of PTA, the PX will turn to destocking again, and there is support below the PXN. For TA, the PTA load is increasing from a low level, and the near-term destocking fundamentals are acceptable. However, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to the expected commissioning of new devices. Recently, mainstream suppliers have been selling goods, and the market's spot supply is relatively abundant. At the same time, the recovery of the demand side is limited, and the order connection is insufficient under high inventory. The increase in polyester load is limited. For PF, the demand for PF has improved slightly, the inventory has started to decrease, the demand at a low price is acceptable, and currently, the inventory held by traders is small. In the short term, the supply-demand situation of direct-spun polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw material side, but its upward momentum is not strong. For PR, several major manufacturers have extended their maintenance plans. It is expected that the spot processing fee of bottle chips will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of raw material prices. For cross-variety trading, go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601. There is no strategy for cross-period trading [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Figures show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright white basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][22] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [27][29] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [30][33][37] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures present the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing machine start - up rate, and filament profit [50][52][63] PF Detailed Data - Figures display the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled price difference, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [72][76][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chip price difference, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [93][97][100]

Industry Overview Upstream - Glass prices have declined [1] - Egg prices have significantly rebounded [1] Midstream - PX and PTA operating rates have remained stable at a medium level [2] - Coal consumption by power plants has increased [2] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third-tier cities have rebounded [2] - The number of domestic flights has increased [2] Key Events Production Industry - On the 17th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology publicly solicited opinions from the society on the mandatory national standard "Safety Requirements for Intelligent Connected Vehicle Combined Driving Assistance Systems". The draft for comments has established a safety baseline for intelligent connected vehicle products, requiring the system to be activated only under its designed operating conditions. For different functions such as single-lane, multi-lane, and pilot assistance, comprehensive safety technical requirements such as human-machine interaction, functional safety and expected functional safety, information safety, and data recording have been set, constructing a "triple safety guarantee" [1] Service Industry - The Ministry of Finance released the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation from January to August 2025, showing that the stamp duty revenue was 284.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%. Among them, the securities transaction stamp duty revenue was 118.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.7%. According to the data previously released by the Ministry of Finance, the securities transaction stamp duty revenue from January to July 2025 was 93.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.5%. This means that the securities transaction stamp duty in August this year was 25.1 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 66.23% compared to 15.1 billion yuan in July and a year-on-year increase of 225.97% compared to August 2024 [1] Key Data Price Index | Industry Name | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Price | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 2294.3 | -0.68% | | Agriculture | Spot price: Egg | H | Yuan/kg | 9/16 | 7.9 | 11.63% | | Agriculture | Spot price: Palm oil | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 9516.0 | -0.04% | | Agriculture | Spot price: Cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 15299.8 | -0.23% | | Agriculture | Average wholesale price: Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/16 | 19.9 | 0.10% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Copper | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 81196.7 | 1.64% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Zinc | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 22218.0 | 0.22% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 20960.0 | 1.29% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 123750.0 | 1.63% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Aluminum | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 17031.3 | 1.49% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price: Rebar | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 3148.0 | -0.17% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price: Iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 807.9 | 0.97% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price: Wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 3352.5 | 1.06% | | Others | Spot price: Glass | H | Yuan/square meter | 9/16 | 14.0 | -1.75% | | Others | Spot price: Natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 15166.7 | -0.05% | | Others | China Plastic City Price Index | H | Point | 9/16 | 793.6 | -0.54% | | Energy | Spot price: WTI crude oil | H | US dollars/barrel | 9/16 | 63.3 | 1.67% | | Energy | Spot price: Brent crude oil | H | US dollars/barrel | 9/16 | 67.4 | 2.15% | | Energy | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 3876.0 | -0.56% | | Energy | Coal price: Coal | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 776.0 | -0.26% | | Chemical | Spot price: PTA | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 4633.8 | -0.21% | | Chemical | Spot price: Polyethylene | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 7378.3 | -0.18% | | Chemical | Spot price: Urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 1665.0 | -1.55% | | Chemical | Spot price: Soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 1262.5 | 0.00% | | Real estate | Cement price index: National | H | Point | 9/16 | 131.5 | 0.72% | | Real estate | Building materials composite index | H | Point | 9/16 | | 0.84% | | Real estate | Concrete price index: National index | H | Point | 9/16 | 92.0 | -0.72% | [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - EG prices are oscillating. The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,297 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China market was 4,373 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton or 0.21% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 81 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$73/ton (down $1/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was -154 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 465,000 tons (up 6,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 363,000 tons (down 13,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 85,000 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at major ports in East China this week is 94,000 tons, a moderate amount [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load remains stable at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas ethylene glycol supply. There are still more than two sets of Saudi Arabian plants in shutdown or low - load operation, and some ocean - going cargoes are still delaying shipment. There is room to revise down the ethylene glycol imports from September to October. On the demand side, the current demand recovery is slow, and order connection is insufficient. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable with a slight increase, but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement later. In September, the EG balance sheet is slightly in surplus, and the main port inventory is expected to remain low, but the advanced commissioning plans of two new plants, Yulong and Ningxia Changyi, dampen market sentiment [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,297 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China market was 4,373 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton or 0.21% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 81 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$73/ton (down $1/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was -154 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The current demand recovery is slow, and order connection is insufficient. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable with a slight increase, but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement later [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 465,000 tons (up 6,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 363,000 tons (down 13,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 85,000 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at major ports in East China this week is 94,000 tons, a moderate amount [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The LPG market is currently oscillating with limited upward drivers. After the market rebound, resistance factors have emerged. Although the fundamentals are relatively stable, the overall operating rate has declined due to some device overhauls. The LPG market has short - term support but lacks further upward drivers, and its price breakthrough space may be limited without unexpected macro or supply - disruption events [1] - The recommended strategy for the LPG market is to take a long position on the PG main contract when the price is low during the period of a fluctuating and slightly bullish trend, and the previous long positions can be appropriately liquidated when the price is high [2] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On September 17, the regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4520 - 4550 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3970 - 4330 yuan/ton; North China market, 4350 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4450 - 4550 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4610 - 4800 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4550 - 4650 yuan/ton; South China market, 4498 - 4690 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 605 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton) and 585 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4730 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan/ton) and 4573 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 598 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton) and 578 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4675 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan/ton) and 4519 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - In the spot market, the price in South China rose slightly yesterday, while the mainstream prices in other regions remained stable. The trading atmosphere was average, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. After the market rebound, resistance factors emerged. As the raw material cost rebounded, the profit of PDH shrank again, and the overall operating rate declined due to some device overhauls. However, the fundamentals were relatively stable. Looking forward, the LPG market has short - term support but lacks further upward drivers [1] Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Investors are advised to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the PG main contract when the price is low, and the previous long positions can be appropriately liquidated when the price is high [2] - Inter - month spread: No recommendation [2] - Cross - commodity spread: No recommendation [2] - Spot - futures: No recommendation [2] - Options: No recommendation [2]

市场分析 国内政策预期升温。国内8月外部压力边际增加，一是中国8月出口有所转弱，尤其是对美出口，但非美出口的韧 性也对后续出口提供支撑；另一方面是外部关税压力有所增加，墨西哥拟对贸易伙伴加征关税，据英国《金融时 报》和路透社披露，特朗普鼓动欧盟对中国和印度加征"二级关税"；为了应对边际增加的外部压力，国内近期频 提稳增长政策。9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"；发改委也表 示"不断释放内需潜力""推进重点行业产能治理"。关注后续更具体的政策内容。商务部等9部门印发《关于扩大服 务消费的若干政策措施》，提出将在约50城开展消费新业态、新模式、新场景试点建设下来，还将出台住宿业高质 量发展、铁路与旅游融合发展等一系列特色文件，形成政策组合拳。商务部决定自2025年9月13日起对原产于美国 的进口相关模拟芯片进行反倾销立案调查。中美双方在西班牙马德里举行经贸会谈，就以合作方式妥善解决TikTok 问题、减少投资障碍、促进有关经贸合作等达成了基本框架共识。特朗普签署行政令，第四次延长对TikTok的禁 令执行宽限期，本次延迟三个月至12月16日。此外，中国8月新增社融2.5 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-09-18 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 终端需求仍偏弱，局部现货下跌 市场分析 1、9月17日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2511合约下午收盘价3445元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨0.58%；持仓233590 手，环比下降991手，成交141270手，环比下跌21219手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3786—4086 元/吨；山东，3480—3770 元/吨；华南，3480—3540元/吨； 华东，3550—3650元/吨。 原油价格近日有所反弹，带动沥青盘面小幅上涨，但力度有限，短期趋势仍不明朗。现货方面，昨日华北市场沥 青价格小幅上涨，东北以及华东地区沥青现货价格明显下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。部分地区供应增 加而需求偏弱，市场压力显现，带动区域内现货价格走低。整体来看，沥青市场自身基本面乏力，如果油价反弹 力度不足，盘面上行驱动仍较为有限。 | 图1：山东重交沥青现货价格 | 单位：元/吨 3 | | --- | --- | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) strategy is neutral [4] - The rating for the corn strategy is cautiously bearish [6] Core Viewpoints - The adjustment in the report is slightly higher than market expectations, leading to a decline in US soybean prices. Future focus should be on the changes in the new season of US soybeans. In the Chinese market, the strengthening of Brazilian premiums has increased import costs, supporting domestic soybean prices. However, domestic soybean supply remains abundant, and downstream inventories are high. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US policies [3] - For the corn market, the supply of new season corn is increasing, and the market is generally in a loose state. Feed enterprises are mainly using inventory, and both feed and deep - processing enterprises are waiting to buy at lower prices. Future focus should be on the listing and acquisition of new season corn [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 粕类 (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3002 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (-1.28%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2460 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton (-2.30%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3010 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2920 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2620 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] - Brazilian Report: The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association maintained the 2025 soybean production forecast at 170.3 million tons and export forecast at 109.5 million tons. The soybean crushing volume forecast was increased by 400,000 tons to 58.5 million tons, driving an increase in bean meal production forecast to 45.1 million tons and soybean oil production forecast to 11.7 million tons. Brazilian soybean exports from September 1 - 12 were 2.718 million tons, with a daily average of 272,000 tons, a 6.5% year - on - year decrease [2] Market Analysis - The report adjustment was slightly higher than market expectations, causing a decline in US soybean prices. The strengthening of Brazilian premiums has increased import costs, supporting domestic soybean prices. However, domestic soybean supply is abundant, and downstream inventories are high. Attention should be paid to Sino - US policies [3] Strategy - Neutral [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2161 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.23%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2453 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.41%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [4] - Brazilian Corn: As of September 13, the harvest progress of Brazil's 2024/25 second - season corn was 99.1%. The planting progress of the 2025/26 first - season corn was 14.7% [4] Market Analysis - The supply of new season corn is increasing, and the market is generally in a loose state. Feed enterprises are mainly using inventory, and both feed and deep - processing enterprises are waiting to buy at lower prices. Future focus should be on the listing and acquisition of new season corn [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

下游观望情绪较重，碳酸锂盘面震荡运行 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-18 市场分析 2025-09-17，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于73160元/吨，收于73640元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化0.03%。当日成 交量为343863手，持仓量为294624手，前一交易日持仓量300437手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为170元/吨（电 碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单39234手，较上个交易日变化410手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价72300-74000元/吨，较前一交易日变化300元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价70300-71500元/吨，较前一交易日变化300元/吨。6%锂精矿价格825美元/吨，较前一日变化5美元/吨。据SMM数 据，下游材料企业仍持谨慎观望态度，采购意愿不强，市场整体成交活跃度不高。当前正值行业需求旺季，下游 材料厂存在一定国庆节前备库需求，在价格处于相对低位时采购意愿较强。供应方面，以锂辉石为原料生产的碳 酸锂占比已超过60%，成为市场供给的重要支撑；锂云母原料所产碳酸锂占比则下降至15%。整体来看，9月市场 呈现供需同步增长、但需求增速更快的态势，预 ...