1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot trading of propylene has improved, but the futures market remains under pressure. The supply of propylene remains high, with stable upstream production. There is a potential for a phased reduction in supply pressure in January due to planned PDH unit maintenance. On the demand side, downstream purchases have increased, leading to better spot trading. The demand for propylene from the PP sector is expected to rise, and the operating rates of some downstream products are expected to increase. However, the overall improvement in demand may be limited. The cost side is affected by geopolitical tensions in the international oil market and the increase in the official price of propane from Saudi Aramco, strengthening cost support. But with limited improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals, the futures market is likely to remain under pressure. The recommended strategy is to wait and see, as the market may fluctuate within a range until the marginal unit maintenance is realized [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure includes information on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the Shandong basis, and the spreads between different contracts (PL01 - 03, PL03 - 05). The propylene main contract closed at 5821 yuan/ton (-14), the East China spot price was 5850 yuan/ton (+0), and the North China spot price was 5775 yuan/ton (+45). The East China basis was 29 yuan/ton (-36), and the North China basis was - 154 yuan/ton (-79) [1][5][12] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene production profit and operating rate data involve multiple indicators such as the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, PDH production profit and capacity utilization, MTO production profit and methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, and naphtha cracking production profit and crude oil refinery capacity utilization. The propylene operating rate was 75% (+0%), China's propylene CFR - Japan's naphtha CFR was 212 dollars/ton (+6), and the import profit was - 310 yuan/ton (-2) [1][21][24] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - For propylene downstream products, data on production profit and operating rate are provided for various products. PP powder operating rate was 38% (+0.77%) with a production profit of - 25 yuan/ton (-45); epoxy propane operating rate was 74% (-1%) with a production profit of - 159 yuan/ton (-82); n - butanol operating rate was 81% (+1%) with a production profit of 458 yuan/ton (-27); octanol operating rate was 82% (-3%) with a production profit of 820 yuan/ton (-32); acrylic acid operating rate was 83% (+3%) with a production profit of 322 yuan/ton (+36); acrylonitrile operating rate was 78% (-2%) with a production profit of - 817 yuan/ton (-100); and phenol - acetone operating rate was 81% (+3%) with a production profit of - 876 yuan/ton (+0) [1][40][41] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - Propylene inventory data includes the factory inventory of propylene and PP powder. The propylene factory inventory was 47790 tons (+1780) [1][61][62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For PE, short - term sentiment boost and cost - side disturbances drive the price to stop falling and rebound, but limited improvement in supply - demand fundamentals restricts the rebound space. The supply pressure increases due to new device production, limited planned maintenance, and expected increase in low - price imported goods, while the demand is weak as it's the off - season, and the downstream开工 rate continues to decline [1][2]. - For PP, short - term market sentiment turning warm, supply - side shrinkage expectations, and cost - side support drive the price to stop falling and rebound. However, the supply - demand contradiction is large, with high inventory levels. The short - term rebound depends on the increase in supply - side maintenance scale, but the price rebound space may be limited due to insufficient demand improvement [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and basis: L main contract closed at 6449 yuan/ton (-23), PP main contract at 6330 yuan/ton (-18). LL North China spot was 6400 yuan/ton (+100), LL East China spot at 6480 yuan/ton (+30), PP East China spot at 6190 yuan/ton (+30). LL North China basis was - 49 yuan/ton (+123), LL East China basis at 31 yuan/ton (+103), PP East China basis at - 140 yuan/ton (+48) [1]. - Upstream supply: PE开工 rate was 83.2% (+0.6%), PP开工 rate was 76.7% (-0.1%) [1]. - Production profit: PE oil - based production profit was 64.5 yuan/ton (+78.3), PP oil - based production profit was - 415.5 yuan/ton (+78.3), PDH - made PP production profit was - 828.8 yuan/ton (-35.7) [1]. - Import and export: LL import profit was 99.3 yuan/ton (-2.5), PP import profit was - 351.2 yuan/ton (+7.4), PP export profit was - 22.4 US dollars/ton (-0.9) [1]. - Downstream demand: PE downstream agricultural film开工 rate was 39.0% (-4.9%), PE downstream packaging film开工 rate was 48.4% (+0.2%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工 rate was 43.1% (-0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film开工 rate was 63.2% (+0.0%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Short - term sentiment and cost factors drive the price to stop falling, but the supply - demand situation is unfavorable. New device production and expected increase in imports increase supply, while downstream demand remains weak as it's the off - season, and the开工 rate is expected to decline further [2]. - **PP**: Market sentiment, supply - side expectations, and cost support drive the price to rebound. However, the supply - demand contradiction is large, with high inventory and limited downstream demand improvement [3]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: LLDPE and PP are under the "wait - and - see" strategy. The short - term may continue the volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of upstream device maintenance [4]. - Inter - period: Not provided - Inter - variety: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 when it is high [4]

农产品日报 | 2026-01-06 国内供应充足，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2754元/吨，较前日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.18%；菜粕2605合约2361元/吨，较前 日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.17%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3090元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+336， 较前日变动-15；江苏地区豆粕现货3050元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+296，较前日变动-15；广东地 区豆粕现货价格3070元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M05+316，较前日变动-5。福建地区菜粕现货价格2580 元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM05+219，较前日变动+4。 近期市场资讯，外媒1月3日消息：布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所称，截至12月30日，阿根廷2025/26年度大豆播种完 成82%，高于一周前的75.5%。1月2日，美国农业部发布的月度油籽压榨报告显示，美国2025年11月大豆压榨量为 662万短吨（2.21亿蒲式耳）。2025年10月为709万短吨（2.36亿蒲式耳），2024年11月为630万短吨（2 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Views - The nickel market is experiencing a price rebound, but it's mainly due to the game between capital sentiment and policy expectations rather than a substantial improvement in the supply - demand structure. The stainless - steel market is caught in a game between strong cost expectations and weak real - world demand. Nickel is expected to remain strong, while stainless steel is expected to maintain a volatile trend [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On January 5, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 135,000 RMB/ton, closed at 134,100 RMB/ton, a 0.57% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 366,893 (-774,634) lots, and the open interest was 134,729 (1934) lots. The high - level oscillation of the contract reflects intensified market game between supply contraction expectations and the reality of the off - season demand. The current price rebound is a result of the game between capital sentiment and policy expectations [1] - The nickel ore market has a calm trading atmosphere, with limited resources and stable prices. In the Philippines, mines are waiting for the new round of northern mine tenders and have a bullish outlook. Rainfall has affected shipping efficiency. In Indonesia, the January (Phase I) 2026 domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.05 - 0.08 USD/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with a premium range of +25 - 26 [2] - Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 142,200 RMB/ton, up 1,100 RMB/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was okay. Jinchuan nickel was in short supply. The spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were stable or declined. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 38,424 (758) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,354 (72) tons [2] Strategy - The fundamentals show high inventories and oversupply, but with frequent positive policies from Indonesia and nickel having oscillated at the bottom for a long time, it's likely to attract the attention of profitable funds from precious metals and non - ferrous metals. It is expected to remain strong. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips for single - sided trading, while there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On January 5, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2602 opened at 13,150 RMB/ton and closed at 13,075 RMB/ton. The trading volume was 85,130 (-60,400) lots, and the open interest was 72,144 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a trend of rising first and then falling, oscillating downward, centered around the game between "strong cost expectations and weak real demand". Although it continued the pre - holiday optimistic trend at the opening, it was dragged down by the black - metal sector during the session [3] - The market activity increased, and spot quotes rose. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 13,250 (+175) RMB/ton, and in Foshan market, it was also 13,250 (+175) RMB/ton. The 304/2B premium was 195 - 395 RMB/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 5.00 RMB/nickel point to 927.5 RMB/nickel point [3] Strategy - With some macro - level positive factors realized and the inventory declining for four consecutive weeks, but the downstream demand being weak in the off - season, the stainless - steel price is expected to remain volatile, closely following the Shanghai nickel price trend. The short - term operation strategy is to wait and see. It is not advisable to blindly chase the high in the current volatile situation. The single - sided strategy is neutral, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Option: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View of the Report - At the end of the year, the supply - demand weakness pattern of the lead variety is more obvious. Driven by the overall rise in the non - ferrous sector, the demand off - season becomes even weaker. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,800 yuan in January 2026 [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On January 5, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$46.54/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 150 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 150 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 150 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 50 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 50 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On January 5, 2026, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,365 yuan/ton and closed at 17,395 yuan/ton, a change of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 38,065 lots, a change of - 39,893 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 47,544 lots, a change of 2,132 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,480 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,300 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,385 yuan/ton and closed at 17,455 yuan/ton, a 0.34% increase from the previous afternoon's close. The SMM1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures fluctuated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in成交. Traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventory was low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex - factory sources were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for成交 [2] Inventory - On January 5, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 19,000 tons, a change of 600 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 236,900 tons, a change of - 2,600 tons from the previous trading day [3]

化工日报 | 2026-01-06 青岛港口库存继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15790元/吨，较前一日变动+185元/吨；NR主力合约12805元/吨，较前一日变动+180 元/吨；BR主力合约11645元/吨，较前一日变动+125元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15500元/吨，较前一日变动+250元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14850元/吨，较前 一日变动+150元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1890美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1830美元/吨，较前一日变动+25美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11500元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价11550元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年11月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量64.36万吨，环比增 加25.98%，同比增加14.69%，2025年1-11月累计进口数量587.16万吨，累计同比增加16.98%。 ANRPC最新发布的2025年11月报告预测，11月全球天胶产量料降2.6%至1 ...

化工日报 | 2026-01-06 本周EG计划集中到港，价格低位整理 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3732元/吨（较前一交易日变动-71元/吨，幅度-1.87%），EG华东市场现货价 3640元/吨（较前一交易日变动-38元/吨，幅度-1.03%），EG华东现货基差-126元/吨（环比+15元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-87美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-858 元/吨（环比-6元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数8.3万吨，副 港到港量2.5万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数17.8万吨，副港到港量5.8万吨，整体偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，合成气制负荷挤出不明显，国内乙二醇负荷回升至7成以上高位，1~2月高供 应和需求转弱下累库压力仍大；海外供应方面，随着沙特、台湾装置检修，后续2月后进口压力将有所缓 ...

市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-116元/吨（+7）。纯苯港口库存31.80万吨（+1.80万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费143美元/吨 （+10美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费136美元/吨（+11美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差162.8美元/吨（-2.0美元/吨）。华东 纯苯现货-M2价差-200元/吨（-5元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-365元/吨（+10），酚酮生产利润-876元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润845元/吨（-12）， 己二酸生产利润-661元/吨（+54）。己内酰胺开工率75.52%（+1.47%），苯酚开工率81.00%（+2.50%），苯胺开工率 59.81%（-3.17%），己二酸开工率68.20%（+4.60%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差121元/吨（+47元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润133元/吨（-6元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存132300吨（-6500吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存77300吨（-6000吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙烯 开工率70.2%（-0.5%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润59元/吨（+54元/吨），PS生产利润-24 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - After the holiday, the spot price of zinc rose sharply. Although the social inventory increased slightly, the supply remained tight. Traders were reluctant to sell, and downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines. The domestic smelter's comprehensive smelting loss widened, and the supply pressure decreased significantly. The fundamental data is still bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. The market is optimistic about future consumption, with unchanged expectations of interest rate cuts and unreflected re - inflation [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Data - LME zinc spot premium is -$36.25/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,970 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 105 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,870 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 5 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,890 yuan/ton, up 680 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 35 yuan/ton [1] Futures Data - On 2026 - 01 - 05, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,435 yuan/ton and closed at 23,820 yuan/ton, up 525 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 141,147 lots, and the open interest was 89,942 lots. The highest price was 23,930 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,400 yuan/ton [2] Inventory Data - As of 2026 - 01 - 05, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,800 tons, up 8,700 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 105,850 tons, down 475 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - Copper investment strategy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Options strategy: Sell put options [9] Group 2: Core View - The current copper market is characterized by tight mine - end supply, increased refined copper exports due to foreign market premiums, and relatively reluctant selling of scrap copper. Although demand is weak due to high prices and holidays, downstream restocking enthusiasm is expected to pick up if copper prices fall. [9] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On January 5, 2026, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 99,450 yuan/ton and closed at 101,350 yuan/ton, a 3.17% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 100,890 yuan/ton and closed at 102,650 yuan/ton, a 1.28% increase from the afternoon close. [2] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper for the January 2026 contract ranged from a discount of 30 yuan/ton to a premium of 100 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 35 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price was between 100,250 - 100,900 yuan/ton. The intraday spot premium first rose and then fell. [3] Important Information Summary - Geopolitical: Switzerland has frozen the assets of Maduro and related individuals, which may boost the allocation value of physical assets. - Economic data: The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 dropped from 48.2 to 47.9, hitting a new low since October 2024. New orders have contracted for four consecutive months, export orders are weak, and employment has declined for 11 consecutive months. - Mine end: The Union2 of the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will go on strike, and during the strike, the mine's output is expected to drop to 30% of the normal level. [4] Smelting and Import - The 500,000 - ton/year direct - smelting copper smelter of Kamoa - Kakula produced its first batch of anode copper on December 29, 2025. The smelter's capacity ramp - up will continue throughout 2026 and is expected to reach full capacity by the end of the year. The project is expected to produce 380,000 - 420,000 tons of copper ore in 2026. [5] Consumption - Copper demand is increasingly dependent on electrification, energy transition investment, electric vehicle adoption, grid expansion, and AI - dominated data center infrastructure. Copper supply is the key constraint. Even with moderate demand growth, prices may fluctuate sharply. [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,100 tons to 142,550 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 8,507 tons to 90,282 tons. On January 5, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 257,600 tons, an increase of 18,700 tons from the previous week. [7][8] Strategy - For copper, it is recommended to conduct batch - by - batch, buy - hedging on dips between 97,000 yuan/ton and 97,500 yuan/ton. [9]