1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating for both the pig and egg sectors: Cautiously bearish [2][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the pig market is difficult to change. However, in the medium and long - term, attention should be paid to the reduction of pig production capacity and national policy changes. For the egg market, short - term consumption demand is strong due to the double festivals, but the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market should be monitored [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2511 contract was 13,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 160.00 yuan/ton (- 1.22%) from the previous trading day. - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 12.94 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.23 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 13.21 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.18 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.66 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.10 yuan/kg. - Wholesale prices: On September 17, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 117.87, down 0.13 points from the previous day. The average wholesale price of pork was 19.73 yuan/kg, down 0.8% [1] Market Analysis - The weight - reducing slaughter of large - scale pig farms has weakened the festival's boosting effect. In the short - term, the supply - demand imbalance persists, while long - term factors include the reduction of sow production capacity and policy changes [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [2] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2511 contract was 3116 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of + 3.00 yuan (+ 0.10%) from the previous trading day. - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 3.60 yuan/jin; in Shandong, it was 3.85 yuan/jin; in Hebei, it was 3.53 yuan/jin. - Inventory: On September 17, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.5 days, unchanged from the previous day, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.74 days, an increase of 0.14 days (23.33%) [3] Market Analysis - After the egg price increase, terminal consumption and trading are smooth, and inventory is being cleared. Overall demand is still strong due to the festivals, but the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market should be noted [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is under inventory pressure, with increased contradictions in the building materials fundamentals and pressured prices, while the plate demand remains resilient, and the price is relatively strong. After the Fed's interest rate cut, policies and expectations support steel prices. The iron ore market has significant growth in global shipments, a slight decline in arrivals, high pig iron production, and falling steel mill profits. The coking coal production resumes slowly, and the double - coking spot rebounds. The power coal market has rising prices in the producing areas due to increased demand, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and supply - abundant in the long - term [1][3][5][7] Market Analysis Steel - Futures and spot: Steel futures prices fluctuated. Spot steel sales were generally weak, with better low - price transactions. The national building materials sales volume was 10,270 tons. Steel production and inventory increased. - Supply and demand logic: Building materials face increased fundamental contradictions and price pressure due to inventory. Plate demand is resilient, and prices are relatively strong. Fed's interest rate cut, anti - involution policies, holiday restocking expectations, and environmental protection policies support steel prices [1] Iron Ore - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices fluctuated. In the spot market, prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports had slight fluctuations. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for刚需. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 1.265 million tons, a 9.25% decrease from the previous day. The forward spot trading volume was 965,000 tons (7 transactions), a 21.54% decrease, with 545,000 tons from mines. - Supply and demand logic: Global iron ore shipments increased significantly, arrivals decreased slightly, pig iron production was high, and steel mill profits continued to decline. Considering the holiday restocking demand, iron ore consumption is resilient. Attention should be paid to the impact of floating cargo volume on arrivals and steel mills' pre - holiday restocking rhythm [3] Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - Futures and spot: Double - coking futures main contracts fluctuated. After the coke price cut, coking profits shrank, and production was relatively stable. This week, coking coal production growth slowed, inventory was basically decreasing, some mines were affected by environmental protection and over - production inspections, and Mongolian coal imports remained high. - Supply and demand logic: For coke, after the price cut, production in most areas was stable except in Tangshan. Downstream demand was resilient. For coking coal, downstream restocking demand was released before the National Day, inventory decreased continuously. With the Fed's interest rate cut and domestic policy expectations, double - coking is expected to be slightly strong in the short - term [5] Thermal Coal - Futures and spot: In the producing areas, coal prices continued to rise. Demand from the chemical and cement industries and civilian demand increased. With the rise in port prices, the purchasing enthusiasm of platforms and coal yards increased, and most mines had more coal - pulling trucks and a strong willingness to raise prices. In the port market, sentiment was good, some traders were reluctant to sell due to high shipping costs and tight resources, and prices of some high - quality coal varieties increased. The price decline of domestic coal narrowed, imported high - calorie coal was stable, and low - calorie coal prices rebounded, narrowing the price gap between domestic and imported coal. - Supply and demand logic: Production in the producing areas is gradually recovering, and daily power coal consumption is decreasing. The price will fluctuate in the short - term, and the supply will be abundant in the long - term. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7] Strategies Steel - Unilateral: Oscillation - Others: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [2] Iron Ore - Unilateral: Oscillation - Others: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [4] Double - Coking - Coking coal: Oscillation - Coke: Oscillation - Others: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [6]

化工日报 | 2025-09-18 天然橡胶社会库存继续下降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15880元/吨，较前一日变动-160元/吨；NR主力合约12590元/吨，较前一日变动-125 元/吨；BR主力合约11590元/吨，较前一日变动-85元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15100元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15000元/吨，较前一 日变动-150元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1860美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1780 美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11900元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11550元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年8月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合计66.4万吨，较2024年同期的61.6万吨增加7.8%。1-8月，中国进 口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）共计537.3万吨，较2024年同期的451.4万吨增加19%。 QinRex最新数据显示，2025年前8个月，科特迪瓦橡胶出口量共计105万吨，较2024年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the pure benzene market, attention is on the commissioning progress of Yulong Cracking 2. From August to September, there is a concentrated increase in new production capacity, with domestic existing plants operating, and a slowdown in the rhythm of imports. Downstream提货 has reached its peak and declined, but the volume is still acceptable, leading to a decline in port inventories. However, the downstream operations of pure benzene remain weak, with significant inventory pressure in the CPL - PA6 - nylon industry chain, and a decline in CPL operations. Aniline operations have also decreased again, with inventory pressure in the MDI downstream of aniline. Phenol operations have also decreased, affected by bisphenol A. The previously stable - operating styrene is gradually undergoing maintenance, which may affect the demand for pure benzene提货, and the downstream performance is below expectations [3]. - In the styrene market, the volume of downstream提货 in the peak season remains at a relatively high level. The port basis of EB continues to strengthen slightly, and the port inventory of EB still needs further reduction. Currently, the absolute level of port inventory is still relatively high. There will be short - term maintenance of EB in the first and middle of September, with operations gradually reaching a peak and then declining, and port inventories starting to decline. However, operations will pick up again in the second half of September. Among the downstream of EB, the recovery of PS and EPS operations is satisfactory, and the operations of ABS have also increased from a low level, but the inventory pressure is large [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - term Spreads - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 82 yuan/ton (+1), and the spot - M2 spread of East China pure benzene is - 15 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 42 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee of pure benzene is 136 US dollars/ton (+6 US dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 116 US dollars/ton (+7 US dollars/ton). The US - South Korea spread of pure benzene is 53.6 US dollars/ton (-6.0 US dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 368 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory of pure benzene is 13.40 million tons (-1.00 million tons) [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory of styrene is 159,000 tons (-17,500 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 78,000 tons (-9,000 tons), and the operating rate is 75.0% (-4.8%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 142 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 61.02% (+8.49%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 108 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 61.90% (+0.90%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 216 yuan/ton (+18 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 70.00% (+1.00%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1875 yuan/ton (-35), and the operating rate is 86.21% (-4.21%) [1]. - Phenol - ketone: The production profit is - 247 yuan/ton (+0), and the operating rate of phenol is 70.50% (+1.50%) [1]. - Aniline: The production profit is - 29 yuan/ton (+70), and the operating rate is 65.21% (-2.75%) [1]. - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1378 yuan/ton (+14), and the operating rate is 64.20% (+4.20%) [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: None [4]. - Basis and Inter - term: Do a positive spread for the EB2510 - EB2511 spread when it is low [4]. - Cross - variety: Do a widening spread for the EB2510 - BZ2603 spread in the short - term when it is low [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; pay attention to the PL01 - 02 high - price reverse spread after the restart of the main PDH [3] - Cross - period: After the restart of the main PDH, focus on the PL01 - 02 high - price reverse spread [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - On the supply side, two PDH units of Wanhua Penglai and Hebei Haiwei restarted and increased production. There is still a load reduction at Binhua, the PDH unit of Qingdao Jinneng continues to be under maintenance, Shandong Zhenhua is expected to restart in the short term, and the PDH units of Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Jinfa in the East China region continue to be shut down [2] - On the demand side, the profits of propylene downstream are greatly compressed, and the overall start - up rate has decreased month - on - month. Among them, the start - up rate of PP has decreased significantly, the price difference between PP and propylene has narrowed significantly, and the start - up of powder materials is difficult to recover. Due to the shutdown and maintenance of the plant, the start - up of phenol - acetone has also decreased significantly. The PO unit of Qixiangtengda is shut down for maintenance, and the start - up of propylene oxide is expected to decline. The profit of butanol and octanol is good, and the start - up rate continues to rise. After the restart of the Wanhua acrylic acid unit, the start - up rate has the largest increase. Downstream purchases at low prices, and the demand support has improved, but the downstream cost pressure has not been relieved, which may suppress the upward space of propylene [2] - On the cost side, the geopolitical situation is still volatile, the center of oil prices has rebounded, and the price of propane in the external market has continued to strengthen, so the cost side still has support [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6462 yuan/ton (+17), the spot price of propylene in East China is 6475 yuan/ton (+25), the spot price of propylene in North China is 6615 yuan/ton (+65), the basis of propylene in East China is 13 yuan/ton (+8), and the basis of propylene in North China is 153 yuan/ton (+48) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of propylene is 73% (-2%), the spread between Chinese propylene CFR and Japanese naphtha CFR is 200 US dollars/ton (+4), the spread between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 92 US dollars/ton (+0) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit of propylene is - 395 yuan/ton (-115) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of PP powder is 33% (-4.04%), and the production profit is - 205 yuan/ton (-65) [1] - The start - up rate of propylene oxide is 74% (+0%), and the production profit is - 534 yuan/ton (+49) [1] - The start - up rate of n - butanol is 87% (+1%), and the production profit is - 113 yuan/ton (-46) [1] - The start - up rate of octanol is 96% (+1%), and the production profit is 15 yuan/ton (-54) [1] - The start - up rate of acrylic acid is 74% (+5%), and the production profit is 603 yuan/ton (+68) [1] - The start - up rate of acrylonitrile is 72% (-1%), and the production profit is - 505 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - The start - up rate of phenol - acetone is 71% (+2%), and the production profit is - 247 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene is 31710 tons (-5320) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The October contract is mainly short - allocated during the off - season, with its valuation continuing to be revised downward. The HPL has announced the price for the second half of October. The price center in the first half of October has dropped to around $1500/FEU (equivalent to about 1050 points on SCFIS). The SCFIS on October 13 is expected to be between 1050 - 1100 points. If other shipping companies follow HPL's lead and keep the prices unchanged, the final delivery settlement price of the October contract will likely be below 1100 points [4]. - The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists in the December contract. There is an opportunity to bet on the price increase expectation in November. However, the current risks include the bottom of the current freight rate decline and the weak demand on the US route. If ships on the US route are transferred to the European route in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European route prices [5]. - The strategy suggests that the main contract will fluctuate weakly on a single - side basis, and it is advisable to short the October contract in an arbitrage strategy [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of September 17, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 86,848.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 65,208.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1578.80, 1285.00, 1468.70, 1616.70, 1109.70, and 1672.00 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - On September 12, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1154/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $2370/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was $3307/FEU. On September 15, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1440.24 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1349.84 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In October 2025, the monthly average weekly capacity on the China - European base port route was 272,600 TEU, and in November, it was 283,000 TEU. There were 15 blank sailings and 1 TBN in October and 4 blank sailings and 6 TBN in November. HMM has announced the PA alliance's winter suspension plan for the Asia - Europe route [3]. - As of September 14, 2025, 186 container ships with a total capacity of 1.495 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 59 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 886,000 TEU) and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (total 176,880 TEU) had been delivered [6]. 4. Supply Chain - There is geopolitical instability as Israel has launched a large - scale ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, which may impact the shipping supply chain [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The demand on the US route is weak, with the US NRF estimating that the container import demand from September to December 2025 will be about 20% lower than the same period in 2024. The transfer of US - bound ships to the European route in the fourth quarter may affect European route prices [5].

油脂日报 | 2025-09-18 宏观环境变化，油脂承压震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9424.00元/吨，环比变化-58元，幅度-0.61%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8366.00 元/吨，环比变化-52.00元，幅度-0.62%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9999.00元/吨，环比变化-54.00元，幅度-0.54%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9380.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元，幅度-0.32%，现货基差P01+-44.00，环比变化+28.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8530.00元/吨，环比变化-50.00元/吨，幅度-0.58%，现货基差Y01+164.00，环比变 化+2.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10220.00元/吨，环比变化-50.00元，幅度-0.49%，现货基差OI01+221.00， 环比变化+4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据欧盟委员会，法国农业部预测2025/26年法国在欧盟以外的软小麦出口量为785万吨，而7月 份的预测为750万吨。据马来西亚独立检验机构AmSpec，马来西亚9月1-15日棕榈油出口量为695716吨， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Recently, the cost - end oil price has rebounded, and the external propane price has risen strongly. With the support of macro - sentiment, polyolefins have rebounded slightly with fluctuations. Some upstream petrochemical plants have shut down for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. There is an expectation of new capacity from ExxonMobil, and Daxie Petrochemical is continuously increasing production, so the supply is still under pressure. The downstream demand is in the "Golden September" seasonal improvement stage, with the overall downstream factory operating rate rising slightly. However, the downstream mainly maintains rigid procurement, and the demand fulfillment rate is still slow. PP production profit has shrunk significantly, and the cost - end support is strong [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7,245 yuan/ton (+11), PP main contract at 6,982 yuan/ton (+12). LL North China spot was 7,200 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot was 7,170 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot was 6,780 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 45 yuan/ton (-11), LL East China basis was - 75 yuan/ton (-11), and PP East China basis was - 202 yuan/ton (-12) [2] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 78.0% (-2.5%), PP operating rate was 76.8% (-3.1%) [2] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 170.9 yuan/ton (-70.8), PP oil - based production profit was - 459.1 yuan/ton (-70.8), and PDH - based PP production profit was - 303.0 yuan/ton (-12.1) [2] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 92.1 yuan/ton (+10.2), PP import profit was - 482.1 yuan/ton (-9.8), and PP export profit was 29.1 US dollars/ton (+1.2) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 24.1% (+3.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 51.3% (+0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 43.1% (+0.4%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.6% (+0.1%) [2] Market Analysis - Cost - end factors and macro - sentiment have driven polyolefins to rebound slightly. Supply is under pressure due to potential new capacity and production increases. Downstream demand is in a seasonal improvement stage, but the demand fulfillment is slow, and PP cost - end support is strong [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy is neutral; inter - period strategy is 01 - 05 reverse spread; no inter - variety strategy [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View No relevant content provided. Summary by Directory I. Option Trading Volume - On September 17, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 965,600 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,293,500 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,924,600 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 88,000 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 2,602,600 contracts; SSE 50 index options was 46,400 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 149,900 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 436,600 contracts [1]. - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on the same day [19]. II. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.66, with a month - on - month change of - 0.07; the open interest PCR was 0.79, with a month - on - month change of - 0.02. Similar data were provided for other options including CSI 300 ETF options, CSI 500 ETF options, etc [2]. - A table presented the turnover PCR, month - on - month change, open interest PCR, and month - on - month change of various index ETF options [27]. III. Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 20.35%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.91%. Similar data were given for other options such as CSI 300 ETF options, CSI 500 ETF options, etc [3]. - A table listed the VIX and month - on - month change values of various index ETF options [39].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][6][9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the global cotton supply - demand situation is complex. The US cotton supply - demand is expected to improve, but short - term export sales are slow. In China, the current supply is tight, and prices are supported in the short - term, but there is a risk of decline if the peak season demand is weak. In the long run, the cotton price center may rise [2] - For sugar, the strong supply from Brazil is pressuring the raw sugar price. The domestic sugar market is also weak due to poor sales and concerns about policies, but the downside space is limited [5][6] - For pulp, the supply pressure remains high due to slow port de - stocking and high domestic inventory. The demand is weak both at home and abroad. The short - term pulp price is expected to oscillate at a low level [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,890 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,226 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In July, India's cotton imports were about 58,000 tons, a significant increase. As of now, the cumulative imports in the 2024/25 season are 662,000 tons, much higher than last year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the September USDA report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand data, and the US cotton supply - demand is expected to improve. Domestically, the inventory is low, but there is a risk of decline during the new cotton listing period if the peak season demand is poor [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term: oscillate between 13,700 - 14,300 yuan/ton; medium - term: bearish; long - term: bullish [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,529 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,870 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,860 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. In the 2025/26 season as of September 1, Brazil's cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region decreased slightly [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price is pressured by Brazil's strong supply, but there is support from the ethanol price. The domestic sugar market is weak due to poor sales and policy concerns, but the downside space is limited [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term: oscillate at the bottom and wait for a rebound [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 5,042 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.51%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,640 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,135 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - The supply pressure of pulp remains high, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. Attention should be paid to whether the terminal orders will improve during the seasonal peak season [8] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term: continue to oscillate at a low level [9]