期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7658元/吨，较前一日变动-75元/吨，幅度-0.97%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+542，较前一日变动+75；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1942，较前一日变动+75。 近期市场资讯，苹果产区市场维持弱稳运行，客商数量不多，库内货源走货不快，好货价格变动不大，一般货源 价格存在让价空间。西部早熟果目前仍以大荔、运城等地晨阳、夏红、秦阳为主，整体上量有限，对行情影响不 大。西部产区货源剩余不多，存货商自行发市场为主，交易不多，早熟果光果晨阳、秦阳等上市后价格稳定；山 东产区仍以发市场为主，部分货源价格因质量有小幅松动。销区市场走货一般，消暑类水果存在冲击。陕西洛川 产区目前库内70#起步统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.5-3元/ 斤，果农80#以上统货3-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.8-4.0元/斤。 苹果库内 ...

港口到港压力仍存，价格震荡偏弱 甲醇观点 甲醇日报 | 2025-07-09 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润670元/吨（-20）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1965元/吨（-20），内蒙北线基差192元/吨（-1），内蒙南线2020元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2280元/吨（-15），鲁 南基差107元/吨（+4）；河南2175元/吨（+0），河南基差2元/吨（+19）；河北2185元/吨（+0），河北基差72元/吨（+19）。 隆众内地工厂库存352280吨（+10730），西北工厂库存223500吨（+18000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单233250吨（-7450）， 西北工厂待发订单110400吨（-9100）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2402元/吨（-23），太仓基差29元/吨（-4），CFR中国280美元/吨（-2），华东进口价差-32元/吨 （-23），常州甲醇2400元/吨；广东甲醇2415元/吨（-20），广东基差42元/吨（-1）。隆众港口总库存673660吨（+3160）， 江苏港口库存333000吨（-23500），浙江港口库存 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-07-09 棕榈油出口增长，或支撑价格 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8644.00元/吨，环比变化+178元，幅度+2.10%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7946.00 元/吨，环比变化+52.00元，幅度+0.66%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9598.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.52%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8620.00元/吨，环比变化+110.00元，幅度+1.29%，现货基差P09+-24.00，环比变 化-68.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8090.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元/吨，幅度+0.75%，现货基差Y09+144.00， 环比变化+8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9730.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.52%，现货基差 OI09+132.00，环比变化+0.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：上周进口油菜籽开机降至低位，整体上处于几乎停滞水平，菜油产量随之减少，库存高位小 幅回落。中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，截止到2025年第27周末，国内进口压榨菜油库存量为85.9万吨，较上周的 88.4 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-09 供应充足，盘面弱势震荡 市场分析 1、\t7月8日地区价格：山东市场，4550-4650；东北市场，4120-4330；华北市场，4460-4650；华东市场，4380-4580； 沿江市场，4570-4740；西北市场，4150-4400；华南市场，4570-4720。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年8月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷566美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，丁烷537美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4457元/吨，涨56元/吨，丁烷4229元/吨，涨80元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年8月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷571美元/吨，涨14美元/吨，丁烷542美元/吨，涨15美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4497元/吨，涨112元/吨，丁烷4268元/吨，涨119元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 昨日原油价格走强，但对LPG市场提振有限，盘面维持弱势震荡，市场驱动不足。现货方面，沿江地区有所下跌， 其余区域主流维稳，氛围温和，上游库压尚可，下游按需采购。供应方面，OPEC计划增产，海外供应维持充裕； 国内供应尚可，整 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-07-09 夏肥支撑盘面，等待印标价格公布 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-08，尿素主力收盘1763元/吨（+15）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1810 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1820元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1840元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：57 元/吨（-15）；河南基差：47元/吨（-15）；江苏基差：77元/吨（-15）；尿素生产利润290元/吨（+0），出口利润701 元/吨（-10）。 供应端：截至2025-07-08，企业产能利用率84.32%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为101.85 万吨（-7.74），港口样本 库存量为43.70 万吨（+5.60）。 需求端：截至2025-07-08，复合肥产能利用率29.25%（-0.86%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.99%（-0.22%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数5.36日（-0.82）。 目前夏季用肥支撑尿素盘面价格，等待印标价格公布。尿素部分计划检修装置推迟停车，产量继续高位运行。北 方局部区域追肥用量继续释放，农需继续推进。复合肥维持季节性淡季，三聚氰胺开工低 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-09 现货价格承压，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2935元/吨，较前日变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.07%；菜粕2509合约2576元/吨，较前日 变动-3元/吨，幅度-0.12%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2850元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差M09-85， 较前日变动-18；江苏地区豆粕现货2780元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M09-155，较前日变动-8；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2780元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M09-155，较前日变动-8。福建地区菜粕现货价格2580 元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM09+4，较前日变动+3。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部作物周报显示，截至7月6日当周，美国大豆优良率66%，一周前66%，上年同期68%， 与市场预期相符；大豆出苗率96%，一周前94%，上年同期98%；大豆开花率32%，一周前17%，上年同期32%； 大豆结荚率8%，一周前3%，上年同期8%。 市场分析 整体来看，近月到港维持千万吨级以上，油厂大豆和豆粕库存增加较快，预计在新季 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU is rated neutral, and NR is rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - Driven by the warming macro - atmosphere, rubber prices rebounded slightly. Currently, the absolute price of rubber is at a low level. From the perspective of spreads and production profits, RU is in an undervalued range, and the valuation of NR is not significantly overvalued. However, the current driving force is still weak due to the peak rubber - tapping season at home and abroad, with production maintaining a recovery pattern. Affected by seasonal rainfall, it is not the peak period of raw material output. In China, due to the better profit of concentrated latex factories than that of whole - latex production, the phenomenon of factories competing for raw materials still exists, and domestic raw material prices remain firm. But overseas rainfall has eased, and it is expected that raw material prices will continue to weaken, reducing the cost - side support for rubber. This week, the maintenance of domestic semi - steel tire factories may gradually end, and the operating rate is expected to rebound month - on - month, but the terminal demand is weak. For BR, the news of the fault of the upstream atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit of butadiene and the warming macro - atmosphere drove a significant rebound in cis - butadiene rubber. However, the actual impact on the butadiene unit is limited. The supply is expected to change little this week. Although Shandong Yihua is under maintenance, some private units have plans to increase production. The production profit is still around the break - even point, limiting the supply increase. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tire factories is expected to rebound month - on - month, but the terminal demand is weak, and the rebound amplitude is limited. The supply - demand contradiction of cis - butadiene rubber itself is not significant. The upstream butadiene raw material supply is abundant, and there is rigid procurement at low prices, so the price fluctuation is expected to be limited. Cis - butadiene rubber is expected to fluctuate within a range [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 13,985 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the NR main contract was 12,070 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole - latex in the Shanghai market was 13,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,720 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,660 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information - Thailand: In 2025, Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase by 2% to 4.89 million tons, with different growth rates in different regions. - Vietnam: From January to May, Vietnam exported a total of 341,000 tons of mixed rubber, a year - on - year increase of 10%. - USA: In the first five months of 2025, the United States imported a total of 120.95 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From January to May, the United States imported a total of 11.1 million tires from China, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 8, 2025, the RU basis was - 35 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 135 yuan/ton (+ 15), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 6,192 yuan/ton (- 37.10), the NR basis was 234.00 yuan/ton (+ 11.00). - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 65.20 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai glue was 54.50 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 47.50 Thai baht/kg (- 0.30), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 7.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.30). - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.53% (- 0.70%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 64.13% (- 6.27%). - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,293,590 tons (+ 7,445.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 632,377 tons (+ 287), the RU futures inventory was 188,850 tons (- 3,110), and the NR futures inventory was 29,736 tons (+ 2,118) [3] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 8, 2025, the BR basis was - 155 yuan/ton (- 305), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 11,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 11,150 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,150 yuan/ton (+ 100), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,170 yuan/ton (+ 251). - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 66.98% (+ 0.19%). - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 6,800 tons (+ 430), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,350 tons (- 1,300) [3]

沪镍主力合约夜盘小幅高开振荡反弹受阻后振荡回落，日盘开盘继续振荡下跌获支撑后横盘振荡，收阴线。成交 量较上个交易日小幅减少，持仓量较上个交易日略有减少。当地时间6日美国总统特朗普发文说，美国政府将于当 地时间7日中午12时起公布与贸易伙伴的关税信函或关税协议。特朗普此前表示，拟于8月1日起对部分国家的商品 实施最高达70%的关税措施。特朗普在社交媒体表示任何与金砖国家的反美政策保持一致的国家，都将被额外征收 10%的关税。中国物流与采购联合会6日发布数据显示，6月份，全球制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.5%，较上月 上升0.3个百分点，连续两个月环比上升，但仍在50%以下。7月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年6 月末，我国外汇储备规模为33174亿美元，较5月末上升322亿美元，升幅为0.98%。菲律宾方面，苏里高矿区降雨 仍存，加之季节性台风影响，装船出货效率迟缓。印尼方面，镍矿供应紧缺问题因印尼当地园区各冶炼厂出现减 产得以缓解。7月（一期）内贸升水维持+24-25。据Mysteel调研印尼14家样本项目统计，2025年6月印尼冰镍金属 产量2.46万吨，环比增加51.68%，同比减少 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China has become the world's largest propylene consumption market, with strong growth in domestic propylene demand in the past, but the demand has slowed down in recent years due to the slowdown of high - speed expansion of downstream product capacities. In 2024, China's propylene consumption and apparent consumption were about 55 million tons per year [11]. - Polypropylene is the main downstream product of propylene, but its consumption proportion has decreased slightly in recent years, while the proportion of other downstream products has increased slightly, showing a trend of diversified development of propylene downstream consumption [15][17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Downstream Demand Situation - From 2015 to 2024, the average annual propylene consumption growth rate was 7.7%, and the average annual apparent consumption growth rate was 10.5%. The consumption growth rate reached a high of 13.7% in 2021, and the apparent consumption growth rate peak was 13.5% in 2016 [11]. - In 2024, in the propylene downstream consumption structure, PP (including granules and powders) accounted for 68% (62% for PP granules and 6% for PP powders), followed by propylene oxide (8%), acrylonitrile (6%), and phenol - acetone (5%) [14]. 3.2 Propylene Downstream Demand: Polypropylene 3.2.1 Polypropylene Overview - Polypropylene is a thermoplastic made by polymerizing propylene monomers, with characteristics such as light weight, high melting point, corrosion resistance, and easy processing. It can be divided into oil - based, coal - based, and propane dehydrogenation (PDH) - based PP according to different raw materials, and into granules and powders according to different forms [18]. 3.2.2 Polypropylene Capacity Pattern - By 2024, China's PP capacity exceeded 50 million tons per year, accounting for about 50% of the world's total capacity, ranking first in the world. The capacity growth rate has been over 10% in recent years. PP granules accounted for 84% of the capacity, and PP powders accounted for 16%, with the powder capacity shrinking due to environmental protection requirements [21]. - With the continuous commissioning of PP capacity in recent years, production profits have fluctuated around the break - even point or maintained a small profit, and capacity utilization has reached a record low [24]. 3.3 Propylene Downstream Demand: Propylene Oxide 3.3.1 Propylene Oxide Overview - Propylene oxide is a colorless, flammable liquid mainly used to synthesize polyether polyols and then manufacture polyurethanes. The mainstream production processes are HPPO and co - oxidation methods, while the chlorohydrin method is being phased out due to environmental pressure [31][34]. 3.3.2 Propylene Oxide Capacity Pattern - In 2024, China's propylene oxide capacity exceeded 7 million tons per year, accounting for over 40% of the world's total capacity, ranking first in the world. The capacity growth rate slowed down to 16% in 2024. Capacity utilization has gradually decreased since 2021, and production profits have shown a downward trend, with long - term losses in 2025 [35][37]. 3.4 Propylene Downstream Demand: n - Butanol 3.4.1 n - Butanol Overview - n - Butanol is a colorless, transparent liquid mainly used as a solvent and chemical intermediate. The mainstream production route is the propylene carbonyl synthesis method [41][42]. 3.4.2 n - Butanol Capacity Pattern - In 2024, China's n - butanol capacity was 3.8 million tons per year, being the world's largest producer. After some backward - process capacities were eliminated, the capacity grew again in 2022 with a growth rate of 17%. Currently, the propylene carbonyl synthesis method is mainly used. External demand is good, production has increased, capacity utilization has improved, but profits have decreased significantly compared with the past two years [43][45]. 3.5 Propylene Downstream Demand: Octanol 3.5.1 Octanol Overview - Octanol is a colorless, oily liquid mainly used as a raw material for plasticizers. Its production process is the propylene carbonyl synthesis method [50]. 3.5.2 Octanol Capacity Pattern - In 2024, China's octanol capacity was 3.3 million tons per year, ranking first in the world. The capacity growth rate increased significantly to 33% in 2024. Capacity utilization has been high, but production profits have declined rapidly with the commissioning of new plants in 2024 [51][56]. 3.6 Propylene Downstream Demand: Acrylic Acid 3.6.1 Acrylic Acid Overview - Acrylic acid is a colorless, pungent liquid mainly used to synthesize acrylates. The mainstream production route is the two - step oxidation of propylene [58][61]. 3.6.2 Acrylic Acid Capacity Pattern - In 2024, China's acrylic acid capacity exceeded 4 million tons per year, ranking first in the world. The capacity growth restarted in 2020, with a growth rate of 14% in 2022. Capacity utilization has been between 70% - 80%, and production profits have recovered this year [62][65]. 3.7 Propylene Downstream Demand: Acrylonitrile 3.7.1 Acrylonitrile Overview - Acrylonitrile is a colorless, flammable liquid mainly used in synthetic fibers and some fine chemicals. The mainstream production route is the propylene ammoxidation method [71][72]. 3.7.2 Acrylonitrile Capacity Pattern - In 2024, China's acrylonitrile capacity was about 4.4 million tons per year. The average annual capacity growth rate from 2019 to 2023 was over 15%. Capacity utilization has decreased after the commissioning of new capacities, and production profits have been in a loss state for a long time [73][78]. 3.8 Propylene Downstream Demand: Phenol 3.8.1 Phenol Overview - Phenol is a colorless crystal or white molten solid mainly used to produce bisphenol A. The mainstream production route is the cumene method, which co - produces acetone [81]. 3.8.2 Phenol Capacity Pattern - In 2024, China's phenol capacity was about 6.4 million tons per year, with an average capacity growth rate of 30% in the past three years. Capacity utilization has been around 80%, but the production profit of phenol - acetone has been in a loss state for a long time [82][86]. 3.9 Propylene Downstream Demand: Acetone 3.9.1 Acetone Overview - Acetone is a colorless, transparent liquid mainly used as a solvent and chemical intermediate. It is a by - product of phenol production through the cumene method [89][91]. 3.9.2 Acetone Capacity Pattern - In 2024, China's acetone capacity was about 4 million tons per year, with an average capacity growth rate of 30% in the past three years, and the output has been increasing year by year [92]. 3.10 Propylene Downstream Demand: Epichlorohydrin 3.10.1 Epichlorohydrin Overview - Epichlorohydrin is a colorless, flammable liquid mainly used to produce epoxy resins. The production route that requires propylene is the high - temperature propylene chlorination method, which is being replaced by the glycerol method [96]. 3.10.2 Epichlorohydrin Capacity Pattern - In 2024, China's epichlorohydrin capacity exceeded 2.1 million tons per year, ranking first in the world. The capacity growth rate in the past three years was 20%. The glycerol method capacity accounts for a large proportion and is the main new - added direction. Capacity utilization is relatively low, and production profits have recovered in recent years [97][99].

市场要闻与重要数据 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-08 白宫再度呼吁干预鲍威尔的立场 降息概率再加大 昨日，特朗普向14国发出关税信函，8月1日起对日韩进口商品征收25%的关税，对马来西亚、南非、印尼、缅甸、 泰国等征收25%至40%的关税，任何与金砖国家反美政策结盟的国家，关税再加10%，并签署行政令将对等关税 暂缓期延长至8月1日；白宫官员称不会将特定国家关税与行业关税叠加。此外，美联储主席热门候选人沃什表示， 应降息至更低水平，白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗呼也吁美联储理事会对鲍威尔的立场采取干预措施。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-07-07，沪金主力合约开于 775.38元/克，收于 771.30元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.74%。当日成交量为 190256手，持仓量为 175760手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 771.66 元/克，收于 775.68 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.36%。 2025-07-07，沪银主力合约开于 8919元/千克，收于 8872元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 261611手，持仓量 229481手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,856 ...