1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial for the export of PTA and filaments, but the new production capacity in India and Indonesia in 2026 may reduce their import volume. The export of filaments may increase by 2 - 30,000 tons per month in 2026 [2]. - The low price of ethylbenzene drives the expectation of blending oil, and the aromatics arbitrage between Asia and America has started, leading to the rise of PX and PTA prices [2]. - The supply of oil from the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia has increased significantly since Q3, with a bearish impact on oil prices. However, market differentiation due to sanctions still exists, and geopolitical and macro - events may affect market sentiment [2]. - For PX, the domestic PX plant load has reached a high level in recent years, and PXN has support but limited rebound space. For TA, there is limited inventory accumulation pressure in November, but it will increase after December. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve [2][3][5][6]. - The polyester开工率 is 91.3% (down 0.4% month - on - month), with improved domestic sales orders since late October. The polyester load in November is expected to remain around 91% [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit is 156 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton month - on - month), with high load and low inventory. The processing fee is expected to remain stable. For PR, the bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3][6]. - The strategy is to be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The 01 contract has limited upside space due to inventory accumulation pressure, and attention should be paid to the 05 contract in the long - term. There are no cross - variety and cross - period strategies [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [10][13][15] 3.2 Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] 3.3 International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve toluene Asia - America spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] 3.4 Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA plants, as well as Chinese and Asian PX plants [29][32][33] 3.5 Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] 3.6 Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate, and filament profit [49][51][60] 3.7 PF Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled price difference, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][80][84] 3.8 PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [88][90][98]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Despite the end of the US government shutdown, multiple key economic data releases were confirmed unavailable, and several Federal Reserve officials made hawkish remarks, leading to a decline in major US stock indices. In China, the structured market is evident, and the recent core operating logic focuses on the price - increase concept, with sector rotation supporting the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - economic Charts - The macro - economic charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share style trends. All data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [6][9][11] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indices on November 13, 2025 shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.73% to 4029.50 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.95% to 13691.38 points, the ChiNext Index rose 2.55% to 3201.75 points, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.21% to 4702.07 points, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.96% to 3073.67 points, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.55% to 7355.29 points, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.39% to 7590.58 points. The data source is from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - In the futures market, the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased simultaneously. The basis of IM futures rebounded. The data on the open interest, trading volume, basis (futures - spot), and inter - delivery spread of stock index futures are presented in relevant tables and figures, and the data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [2][18][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of natural rubber is strongly supported, but there is potential for inventory accumulation in the domestic market. It is recommended to focus on the reverse spread between RU01 and RU05. The supply pressure of RU may be less than that of NR in the later period, which is beneficial for the expansion of the price difference between RU and NR. The supply of BR is expected to remain stable in the short - term due to maintenance, and it mainly follows the price fluctuations of upstream butadiene. The inventory accumulation pattern may continue, but the loss of butadiene production profit may limit future output [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,390 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,400 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,480 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,780 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,420 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Heavy - truck market: In October 2025, the sales volume of the domestic heavy - truck market was about 93,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 916,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 22%, and it is expected to exceed 1 million units after November [2] - Global natural rubber: In September 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - Rubber imports: In October 2025, China imported 667,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 1.2% increase from the same period in 2024 [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% [3] - Passenger - car market: In October, the retail volume of the domestic passenger - car market was 2.242 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. From January to October, the cumulative retail volume was 19.25 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. In September 2025, the EU passenger - car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 units, and the cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million units [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On November 13, 2025, the RU basis was - 540 yuan/ton (- 70), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 610 yuan/ton (+ 90), etc. [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 60.33 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.13), Thai glue was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 52.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.20), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.20 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.10) [5] -开工率: The all - steel tire production rate was 64.29% (- 1.08%), and the semi - steel tire production rate was 72.99% (+ 0.10%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 449,455 tons (+ 1,787), the inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,056,357 tons (+ 345), the RU futures inventory was 118,970 tons (- 1,930), and the NR futures inventory was 48,586 tons (+ 3,931) [6] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On November 13, 2025, the BR basis was - 130 yuan/ton (- 50), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,000 yuan/ton (+ 100), etc. [7] -开工率: The production rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 69.92% (+ 3.91%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,970 tons (+ 1,450), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,850 tons (+ 80) [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on the more certain non-ferrous metals and precious metals. Consider buying precious metals and non-ferrous metals on dips [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In the domestic market, positive news keeps emerging, but the economic foundation still needs to be consolidated. The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal was released, boosting market sentiment and economic expectations. The average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to be around 5%. China and the US reached a three - point consensus on economic and trade, and China officially postponed tariffs. In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8; exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year. CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and core CPI reached the highest since March 2024. PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year. The central bank proposed to view financial aggregate indicators scientifically. New social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan. The M2 - M1 gap widened. On November 13, the A - share market opened lower and closed higher [1] - The US liquidity risk has eased. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1. The US government shutdown ended. The six - week shutdown is estimated to reduce Q4 GDP by 1.5 percentage points, causing a net loss of about $11 billion. The US ISM manufacturing index in October dropped to 48.7%, shrinking for eight consecutive months. ADP private - sector employment decreased by 45,000, the largest decline in two and a half years. There are uncertainties about the Fed chair candidate and future tariff policies [2] Commodity Analysis - In the commodity market, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The long - term supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by the global easing expectation. The medium - term supply of the energy sector is relatively loose, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. In the chemical sector, pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, and urea. In the agricultural products sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast. After the short - term sharp adjustment risk of precious metals is cleared, consider buying on dips. On November 13, spot gold broke through $4,220 per ounce, up 0.61% on the day [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [4] Key News - As of the end of October, the balance of local and foreign currency loans was 274.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. The balance of RMB loans was 270.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. In the first ten months, RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan. The balance of foreign currency loans was $554.6 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. In the first ten months, foreign currency loans increased by $1.25 billion [5] - As of the end of October, the balance of broad money (M2) was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.55 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. In the first ten months, net cash injection was 728.4 billion yuan. The social financing scale increment in the first ten months of 2025 was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [5] - On November 12, US President Trump signed a federal government temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. Trump said the shutdown cost $1.5 trillion, and it will take weeks or months to calculate the overall impact. After the government re - opened, he will continue to promote measures such as reducing the cost of living, restoring public safety, and promoting economic growth, and emphasized the "big and beautiful" bill will bring the "largest - ever tax cuts" [5] - Spot gold broke through $4,220 per ounce on November 13, up 0.61% on the day [3][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red dates: Neutral [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Apple: The price of apples futures continued to rise. The出库 of late - Fuji apples in the western region has started, with active transactions in Gansu and Shaanxi. The price of high - quality apples is expected to remain stable and firm in the short term, while the price of ordinary goods will remain stable. The stocking volume is lower than the same period last year, and attention should be paid to the stocking progress and出库 situation [3][4]. - Red dates: The price of red dates futures declined. The acquisition progress in Aksu and Alar has accelerated, and the price of new goods in the Hebei market is weakening. The inventory pressure is large, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The actual consumption situation during the peak season will be the focus [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract was 9,504 yuan/ton, up 297 yuan/ton or 3.23% from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late - Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late - Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Recent Market Information - The出库 work of late - Fuji in the western region has started. In Gansu, merchants purchase goods as needed; in Shaanxi Xianyang, some merchants are actively purchasing farmers' goods. The quality of ground - traded goods in Shandong has slightly declined, and the price is slightly weak. The stocking work is entering the later stage, and the price of high - quality goods is expected to remain stable and firm, while ordinary goods will remain stable [2]. Market Analysis - The price of apple futures continued to rise. The出库 of late - Fuji in the west has started, and the price of high - quality goods is expected to be stable and firm, while ordinary goods will remain stable. The stocking work is in the later stage, and the stocking volume is lower than last year. The trading atmosphere in the sales area is still weak, and attention should be paid to the stocking and出库 progress [3]. Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Although the supply of late - Fuji has increased, the commercial rate this year is low, and merchants are cautious about ordering ordinary goods. The stocking volume is lower than last year [4]. Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2601 contract was 9,195 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton or 1.82% from the previous day [5]. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day [5]. Recent Market Information - The acquisition progress in Aksu and Alar has accelerated, and the price has slightly decreased. Merchants select suitable goods. The price in the Hebei market is weakening, and the price in the Guangdong market is stable. The price of spot goods is expected to be stable in the short term [6]. Market Analysis - The price of red dates futures declined. The acquisition progress in the production area has accelerated, and the price in the Hebei market is weakening. The inventory pressure is large, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been alleviated. The actual consumption during the peak season will be the focus [7]. Strategy - Neutral. The decline of red dates futures is obvious, and market gaming has increased. The new - season red dates in the main production areas have not been fully harvested. Attention should be paid to the acquisition price, fruit quality, and consumption during the peak season [8].

流动性日报 | 2025-11-14 市场流动性概况 2025-11-13，股指板块成交7132.44亿元，较上一交易日变动-8.63%；持仓金额13276.36亿元，较上一交易日变动 -4.46%；成交持仓比为53.55%。 国债板块成交3538.94亿元，较上一交易日变动+13.89%；持仓金额8598.81亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.44%；成交 持仓比为42.07%。 基本金属板块成交4968.41亿元，较上一交易日变动+10.54%；持仓金额6405.93亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.38%； 成交持仓比为85.64%。 贵金属板块成交9731.72亿元，较上一交易日变动+46.88%；持仓金额4841.29亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.61%；成 交持仓比为267.54%。 能源化工板块成交4798.72亿元，较上一交易日变动+39.28%；持仓金额4654.27亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.34%； 成交持仓比为84.93%。 农产品板块成交3241.11亿元，较上一交易日变动+20.50%；持仓金额5983.03亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.19%；成 交持仓比为48.51%。 黑色建材板块成交193 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][4][6] Core Views - **Cotton**: Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调 after cost solidification. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption, cotton prices are expected to be positive after seasonal pressure [2] - **Sugar**: Before the Chinese New Year, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand situation is expected to be loose, and the price may hit a new low next year [4] - **Pulp**: Although the pulp price is boosted by macro sentiment, the improvement in fundamentals is limited, and the upside space is restricted. Attention should be paid to the demand in the fourth quarter [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,490 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,614 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,819 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton [1] - **Import Data**: In September, Thailand imported 8,023 tons of cotton, a 11.4% month - on - month and 5.7% year - on - year decrease. From August 2025 to July 2026, Thailand's cumulative cotton imports were about 17,000 tons, a 2.2% year - on - year decrease. The United States was the largest source of imports, accounting for 54.5%, followed by Australia (28.6%) and Brazil (9.0%) [1] Market Analysis - **International**: In late October, China and the United States reached a phased consensus, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, improving the macro sentiment. However, due to the US government shutdown, key industrial data were postponed. With new cotton from the Northern Hemisphere on the market, supply pressure is being released, and weak global textile consumption limits the upside of the outer market [2] - **Domestic**: As the cotton harvest progresses, the expected new - cotton output has declined, and the purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded, supporting the market. But new cotton is still expected to increase in production, and downstream demand is weak [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,512 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.62%) from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [3] - **Policy News**: Mexico has imposed a new tariff on sugar imports. All types of sugar are subject to a 156% tariff per kilogram, and refined sugar is subject to a 210.44% tariff. Previously, the tariff was 360 - 390 US dollars/ton [3] Market Analysis - **Raw Sugar**: Brazil's exports are strong, and India's production is expected to rebound, suppressing market confidence. The global sugar market may be in a bear cycle in the 25/26 season, and the rebound of raw sugar is limited [4] - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: Although there is a strong expectation of domestic sugar production increase in the new season, the price has fallen near the production cost line, and stricter syrup control policies support the price in the short term [4] Pulp Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5,534 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton (+0.95%) from the previous day [5] - **Spot**: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - **Import Data**: In October 2025, China imported 2.618 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.5317 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 585.06 US dollars/ton. From January to October, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 4.8% and decreased by 2.0% respectively compared with the previous year [5] Market Analysis - **Supply**: In September, European pulp port inventories declined month - on - month but remained high. Domestic pulp imports increased in September, and port inventories have been high for a long time, with the supply situation remaining unchanged [5] - **Demand**: Pulp consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and global pulp mills face inventory pressure. Domestic demand is weak, and although a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation this year, effective demand is insufficient, and paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [5]

农产品日报 | 2025-11-14 供需格局延续，猪价震荡运行 市场分析 10月份入场的二次育肥预计出栏时间会在冬至前后，如果价格下降或将有一定提前出栏的风险。从目前的生猪存 栏体重来看未来生猪供应仍处于过剩状态，未来叠加二次育肥的出栏会进一步增加供应压力，整体供强需弱格局 难改。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 政策变化 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11860元/吨，较前交易日变动+65.00元/吨，幅度+0.55%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.86元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH01+0，较前交易日变动-64；江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 11.98元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.06元/公斤，现货基差LH01+120，较前交易日变动-125；四川地 区外三元生猪价格11.33元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤，现货基差LH01-530，较前交易日变动-114。 据农业农村部监测，11月13日"农产品批发价格200指数"为125.64，比昨天上升0.09个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为127.76，比昨天上升0.10个点。全国农产品 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-14 策略 现货供给充足，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3071元/吨，较前日变动+12元/吨，幅度+0.39%；菜粕2601合约2492元/吨，较前 日变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.08%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3050元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-21， 较前日变动-12；江苏地区豆粕现货3010元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01-61，较前日变动-2；广东地区 豆粕现货价格3010元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M01-61，较前日变动-2。福建地区菜粕现货价格2680 元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM01+188，较前日变动+2。 近期市场资讯，巴西全国谷物出口商协会预计，11月份巴西大豆出口量将达到426万吨，高于一周前预估的377.2 万吨，较去年同期的233.9万吨增长82%。预计2025年1-11月巴西大豆出口量将达到10633万吨，高于去年同期的9583 万吨。 市场分析 谨慎偏空 风险 当前整体供需格局并未改变，下游油厂开机率偏高，但大豆及豆粕库存仍维持高位， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the prices of coking coal and coke are fluctuating. Steel prices are also fluctuating due to macro - sentiment disturbances. Iron ore prices have slightly increased with the rebound of hot metal production, while the price of thermal coal has a complex situation with different trends in production areas, ports, and imports [1][3][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3046 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil at 3254 yuan/ton. The production, demand, and total inventory of the five major steel products decreased, and spot trading was average. This week, the production and sales of building materials increased month - on - month, inventory decreased, and demand slightly rebounded. However, there may be a weakening of demand in the off - season. The production of strip steel decreased due to production restrictions in North China, demand remained resilient, and inventory decreased slightly. The contradiction in strip steel lies in high inventory and production, and export profit losses suppress steel prices, requiring production cuts to resolve the contradiction. Future attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts, inventory, and raw material cost support [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weakly fluctuating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices slightly increased. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports nationwide was 1.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.28%. This week, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 236880 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2660 tons [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments have continued to decline this week, showing a loose supply situation. With the end of production restrictions in Hebei, hot metal production has been supported, and the current average daily hot metal output has rebounded to a high level over the years. The current relative valuation of the Platts iron ore index is relatively high, and iron ore prices face downward pressure, but it is difficult to have a trending direction in the short term under the support of downstream replenishment demand. Attention should be paid to hot metal production, downstream inventory changes, and negotiation situations [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weakly fluctuating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures declined. In the spot market, coal prices in the main production areas slightly decreased steadily. The coke spot market continued to be strong. For imported Mongolian coal, due to the significant decline in the futures market, port prices were under pressure to adjust downward. Currently, the transaction price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to around 1100 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of Mongolian No. 3 clean coal has dropped to around 1210 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, market sentiment has slightly weakened, rigid demand has declined, and supply has been cut to varying degrees, resulting in a simultaneous tightening of supply and demand. For coking coal, terminal demand has been suppressed, and with the increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance volume, prices are fluctuating. Future attention should be paid to the price trend of thermal coal, coking coal supply, steel mill production cut plans, and macro - policies [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal is expected to fluctuate, and coke is also expected to fluctuate. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In production areas, the prices of main - producing areas have slightly decreased. As the wait - and - see sentiment has increased, the procurement rhythm of traders has slowed down, and some coal mine prices have slightly adjusted downward. Currently, coal mine inventories are not high, and port prices are relatively strong, so coal mines are not very willing to cut prices. At ports, port shipments have increased, but downstream buyers are waiting and watching, and trading activity is low. Traders expect a tight supply - demand situation in winter and maintain firm quotes, but downstream buyers have limited acceptance of high prices, intensifying the game between buyers and sellers. In terms of imports, the imported coal market has been trending steadily and strongly recently. Imported coal has an obvious price advantage, and terminal users are concentrated in purchasing imported coal with cost - performance advantages, and imported coal prices have followed the upward trend, maintaining a stable cost - performance advantage. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the consumption and replenishment of non - power coal [7] - **Strategy**: Not provided [7]