流动性日报 | 2026-01-05 市场流动性概况 2025-12-31，股指板块成交5860.26亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.06%；持仓金额13980.17亿元，较上一交易日变动 -3.70%；成交持仓比为42.16%。 国债板块成交4077.39亿元，较上一交易日变动+18.39%；持仓金额7765.03亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.10%；成交 持仓比为52.38%。 基本金属板块成交9274.03亿元，较上一交易日变动-14.95%；持仓金额6895.97亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.50%；成 交持仓比为138.10%。 贵金属板块成交14795.39亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.36%；持仓金额4824.61亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.18%；成 交持仓比为452.11%。 能源化工板块成交3652.96亿元，较上一交易日变动-16.45%；持仓金额4100.90亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.98%；成 交持仓比为86.06%。 农产品板块成交2340.10亿元，较上一交易日变动-12.35%；持仓金额5396.48亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.74%；成交 持仓比为41.22%。 黑色建材板块成交1 ...

期货研究报告|宏观数据 2026-01-05 12 月制造业景气回升 ——宏观景气度系列十二 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 宏观事件 12 月中国制造业 PMI 为 50.1（+0.9pct MoM）；非制造业 PMI 为 50.2（+0.7pct MoM）。 核心观点 ■ 制造业 PMI 供给：小幅改善。12 月生产指数为 51.7，较上月变化 1.7 。供应商配送时间指数为 50.2， 较上月变化 0.1 。 需求：外需降幅收窄。12 月新订单指数为 50.8，较上月变化 1.6 。新出口订单指数为 49，较上月变化 1.4 。在手订单指数为 46，较上月变化 0.5 。 供求平衡：仍待改善。12 月供需指数（需求-供给）为-0.9 ，较上月变化-0.1 ，较去年 同期变化 0.2 ，较过去三年均值变化 0.2 。 价格：盈利收缩。12月原材料价格指数为 53.1，较上月变化-0.5 。出厂价格指数为 48.9， 较上月变化 0.7 。出厂价格-原材料价格差值为-4.2 ， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints Manufacturing - Overall: In December, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 57.6%, with a change of 37.3%. Four industries had their manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, 4 less than the previous month and 3 less than the same period last year [4]. - Supply: Slightly declined. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI production index in December was 50.5, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Five industries showed month - on - month improvement, while 10 industries declined [4]. - Demand: Still needed improvement. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI new orders in December was 49.6, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Three industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 12 industries declined [4]. - Inventory: Continued destocking. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory in December remained flat at 47.9. Five industries saw inventory increase, and 10 industries saw inventory decrease [4]. Non - Manufacturing - Overall: In December, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 22.0%, with a change of 10.2%. Eleven industries had their non - manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, 5 more than the previous month and 1 more than the same period last year [5]. - Supply: Employment remained at a low level. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI employee index in December was 45.5, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Both the service and construction sectors increased by 0.4 percentage points [5]. - Demand: Still needed improvement. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI new orders in December was 46.3, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The service sector's new orders increased by 0.2 percentage points, and the construction sector's new orders increased by 1.7 percentage points [5]. - Inventory: Continued destocking. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI inventory in December was 45.3, with no change from the previous month. The service sector's inventory remained unchanged, and the construction sector's inventory increased by 0.8 percentage points [5]. Summary by Directory Overview - Manufacturing PMI: In December, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 57.6%, with a change of 37.3%. Four industries had their manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, 4 less than the previous month and 3 less than the same period last year [10]. - Non - Manufacturing PMI: In December, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 22.0%, with a change of 10.2%. Eleven industries had their non - manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, 5 more than the previous month and 1 more than the same period last year [10]. Demand - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI new orders in December was 49.6, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Three industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 12 industries declined. - Non - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI new orders in December was 46.3, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The service sector's new orders increased by 0.2 percentage points, and the construction sector's new orders increased by 1.7 percentage points. Five industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 10 industries declined. Pay attention to the improvement in textiles and pharmaceuticals and the decline in petroleum [16]. Supply - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI production index in December was 50.5, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Five industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 10 industries declined. The manufacturing PMI employee index in December was 48.3, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Five industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 10 industries declined. - Non - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI employee index in December was 45.5, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The service and construction sectors both increased by 0.4 percentage points. Eleven industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 3 industries declined. Pay attention to the decline in non - ferrous metals and农副食品 and the improvement in ferrous metals [25]. Price - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI ex - factory price index in December was 48.2, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Seven industries saw their ex - factory prices improve, and 8 industries declined. In terms of profit, the profit trend in December increased by 0.4 percentage points, and the overall continued to converge. - Non - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing charge price index in December was 48.3, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The service sector increased by 0.3 percentage points, and the construction sector decreased by 0.2 percentage points. Eight industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 7 industries declined. In terms of profit, the profit in December remained unchanged. The service sector decreased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction sector increased by 0.5 percentage points. Pay attention to the improvement in non - ferrous metals and the decline in petroleum [34]. Inventory - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory in December remained flat at 47.9. Five industries saw inventory increase, and 10 industries saw inventory decrease. The manufacturing PMI raw - material inventory in November decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.5. Seven industries saw inventory increase, and 8 industries saw inventory decrease. - Non - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI inventory in December was 45.3, with no change from the previous month. The service sector's inventory remained unchanged, and the construction sector's inventory increased by 0.8 percentage points. Five industries saw inventory increase, and 10 industries saw inventory decrease. Pay attention to the destocking of non - metallic products and the increase in construction inventory [42]. Main Manufacturing Industry PMI Charts - The report provides data on the PMI of various manufacturing industries, including general equipment, special equipment, automobiles, computers, motors, pharmaceuticals,农副食品, textiles, non - ferrous metals, petroleum, chemicals, ferrous metals, non - metallic products, metal products, and chemical fiber and rubber products, showing values, month - on - month changes, three - year averages, and year - on - year changes [53][54][57][58][59][66][67][68].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of mismatch between production and demand still exists. Polysilicon shows a strong and wide - range oscillation, while industrial silicon prices oscillate within a range under the situation of weak supply and demand, with cost maintaining support [1][4]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. The upward height depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production reduction expectations. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate between 57,000 - 61,000 yuan/ton, waiting for the fundamentals to become clearer [4][7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Situation Review - Industrial silicon: The spot market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. The price of the main contract on the futures market first fell and then rose. The overall profit level is relatively average. The consumption side has a slight decline, and the inventory may maintain a slight accumulation. - Polysilicon: The supply side decreased slightly in December. The downstream prices increased, but the high - inventory pressure and weak demand recovery have not been fundamentally resolved. The price increased slightly in December, and the futures market first rose and then fell [4][5][6]. 2. Supply - side Data - **Industrial silicon**: As of December 25, the total number of domestic industrial silicon furnaces was 796, and the number of open furnaces increased by 23 compared with November. The overall furnace - opening rate was 30.53%. The monthly output increased significantly compared with the previous month. The expected supply is expected to weaken. The import volume from January to November 2025 decreased by 64% year - on - year [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The total output in December was about 115,000 tons. Some leading enterprises reduced production at the end of the year, and the output decreased to match the demand due to factors such as industry self - discipline and the traditional off - season of demand [4]. 3. Consumption - side Review - **Industrial silicon**: In December, the downstream demand continued to tighten. The demand for polysilicon decreased, the organic silicon start - up rate declined, and the aluminum alloy industry mainly purchased on demand. The export volume in November 2025 increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. With the gradual consumption of inventory, the replenishment demand is expected to be released, but the overall consumption side will decline slightly [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The downstream prices increased. The domestic silicon wafer production in December decreased by 19.3% month - on - month, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly. The battery cell production increased in September. The component price continued to oscillate, and the production in December was about 38.7GW, with the production schedule in January expected to decline slightly [5]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Basis Analysis - **Industrial silicon**: The current basis is about 340 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the basis expanded. It is expected that the 553 basis will oscillate around 400 yuan/ton in January 2026, and the 421 basis will oscillate around 850 yuan/ton. The reverse - spread strategy between the January and February contracts can be concerned [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The current N - type dense material average price is at a discount of - 6420 yuan/ton to the futures main contract. Due to the influence of the establishment of the platform company and the expected storage policy, the basis has continued to expand. If the policy has no obvious progress, the basis is expected to be strong but show a recovery state, moving towards - 4000 yuan/ton [11].

化工月报 | 2026-01-04 新装置计划投产，1月EG累库压力仍偏大 核心观点 市场要闻与数据 库存：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布的数 据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。12月，EG平衡表累库20万吨附近，乙二醇港口库存也继续 回升，聚酯工厂EG库存也提升至偏高位。1月新装置存投产预期，同时检修计划偏少，平衡表维持累库预期，预计 在20万吨附近，港口库存压力预计将继续提升。 进出口：中国乙二醇月度进口量583398吨（环比-70764吨）；中国乙二醇月度出口量17042吨（环比+5653吨）。进 口市场来看，11月净进口量56.6万吨，部分货源延迟至12月到港。根据已到船及未来船期情况，预估 12月份进口 量在80万吨附近，1月前进口压力都偏大，2月后将有所缓解。 市场分析 国内供应端，合成气制负荷挤出不明显，国内乙二醇负荷回升至7成以上高位，1~2月高供应和需求转弱下累库压 力仍大；海外供应方面，随着沙特、台湾装置检修，后续2月后进口压力将有所缓解。需求端，织造订单边际转弱 负荷加速下滑，效益转弱 ...

新能源及有色金属月报 | 2026-01-04 高价抑制下游需求 但操作仍可持续逢低买入套保 市场要闻与重要数据 1. 矿端供应方面，12月铜矿供应围绕"零加工费"与潜在罢工两条主线展开。12月25日CSPT正式将2026年Q1现货TC 指导价空缺，长单Benchmark定格在0美元/吨，较2025年的21.25美元/吨"腰斩再归零"，凸显精矿持续紧张。现货 TC结算-44.98美元/干吨，环比再跌1.3美元。矿企动态方面，Kaz Minerals缩减对中国直供、转向贸易商招标，中标 价-50美元，进一步压缩中国冶炼厂原料选择。刚果Kamoa 50万吨粗炼产能12月29日产出首批阳极板，增量预期落 在2026年Q2之后，短期无实质舒缓。智利Mantoverde（年产3万吨铜）工会12月24日进入5+5天调解期，罢工窗口 覆盖1月上旬，供给扰动概率高。综合来看，矿端维持"极紧+高扰动"格局，1月若无罢工兑现，TC或继续横盘-40~-45 美元区间；一旦Mantoverde停产，干净矿现货或再收紧，TC不排除下探-50美元。 2. 粗铜供应方面，12月全球粗铜与阳极板贸易维持"长单锁定、现货稀缺"格局。国内南方粗 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TC of domestic zinc mines continues to decline, and although the zinc ore import window is open due to the convergence of internal and external price ratios after overseas zinc ingot centralized warehousing, the purchasing demand of smelters remains strong, and TC is expected to decline slightly. The current zinc price is undervalued with positive domestic and overseas expectations [1][2] - The production of domestic zinc mines has entered the winter production - reduction cycle, with the output in November 2025 being 311,400 metal tons, 12,000 tons less than expected. The import volume of zinc ore in November 2025 was 519,019 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%, and the cumulative import from January to November was 4,867,942 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.7%. As of the end of December, the total inventory of the seven major ports in China was 329,000 tons [2] - In December 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 552,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6.85%. It is expected that the production in January will be 569,000 tons, but the actual output may be lower than expected due to the continuous decline of TC. The zinc ingot export window closed in mid - December, but it is still expected to be in a net export state in December. The comprehensive smelting of zinc ingots still faces a loss of about 1,000 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingots has shown a downward trend [3] - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting, and zinc oxide have all increased slightly. In November 2025, the net export volume of galvanized strip was 1,188,531 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.60%, and the cumulative net export from January to November was 12,932,351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.88% [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc Concentrate - In December, the domestic zinc concentrate TC dropped 550 yuan/ton to 1,500 yuan/ton, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee index decreased from $61.25/ton to $43.75/ton. The price negotiation for January is still ongoing, and it is expected to decline slightly [2] - In November 2025, the domestic zinc concentrate output was 311,400 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,400 metal tons and a year - on - year increase of 5.24%, 12,000 tons less than expected. It is expected that the output in December will be 320,000 metal tons. The import volume of zinc ore in November 2025 was 519,019 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%, and the cumulative import from January to November was 4,867,942 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.7% [2] - As of the end of December, the total inventory of the seven major ports in China was 329,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 tons. The raw material inventory of smelters was 388,000 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,000 tons, and the available days increased by 1.5 days to 22.3 days, but the available days of inventory are still low [2] Refined Zinc - According to SMM data, in December 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.85%. It is expected that the production in January will be 569,000 tons, but the actual output may be lower than expected [3] - Due to the opening of the export window, in November 2025, China's net export of zinc ingots was 24,500 tons, and the cumulative net import from January to November was 228,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43%. The zinc ingot export window closed in mid - December, and it is still expected to be in a net export state in December [3] - In terms of smelting profit, both domestic and imported TC have dropped significantly. Although the zinc price is oscillating strongly, the net smelting loss is still - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive smelting still faces a loss of about 1,000 yuan/ton [3] - The latest inventory of zinc ingots in seven places is 106,000 tons, with a destocking of 38,000 tons in December. The consumption in the off - season at the end of the year shows resilience. Even after the export window is closed, the inventory still shows a downward trend. The warrant inventory is 42,419 tons, the bonded area inventory is 3,300 tons, and the latest LME inventory is 107,625 tons, with a cumulative inventory increase of more than 50,000 tons in December [3] Consumption End - The operating rate of galvanizing is 57.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the operating rate of die - casting is 30.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%; the operating rate of zinc oxide is 42.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3% [4] - In November 2025, the net export volume of galvanized strip was 1,188,531 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.53% and a year - on - year increase of 13.60%. The cumulative net export from January to November was 12,932,351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.88% [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report points out that there is a risk of a swing in policy expectations both at home and abroad. Geopolitical tensions are intensifying, and global instability will be the norm. The supply - side risks of commodities and loose monetary policies are decisive factors for rising commodity prices. It also mentions bifurcations in domestic and overseas economic outlooks and suggests investment strategies for different asset classes [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Macro**: There is a risk of a swing in policy expectations after domestic important meetings and the Fed's stance adjustment. Attention should be paid to specific domestic policies and Trump's Fed chair candidate. Geopolitical tensions during the New Year holiday may lead to supply - side risks for commodities and support price increases [1]. - **Meso**: There is a divergence in domestic and overseas economic outlooks. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized consumption promotion and "anti - involution." Trade supported the December economic outlook, with consumption leading the industry recovery, and the persistence of new orders' resilience needs attention [2]. - **Micro**: Focus on high - certainty sectors such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals, and also look for opportunities in low - valued commodity price hikes. For non - ferrous metals, aluminum is a preferred choice. Energy prices are affected by geopolitical events and future supply expectations. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of some varieties is worth noting. For agricultural products, weather and short - term pig diseases should be monitored. For precious metals, consider buying on dips [3]. Strategy - **Commodities and Stock Index Futures**: Allocate more on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals [4]. Economic Heat Maps - **US Economic Heat Map**: In 2025, different economic indicators showed various trends. Consumption contributed 66.8% to GDP, investment 26.1%, and fiscal 20.3%. Indicators such as GDP growth, employment, inflation, and consumption had their own fluctuations [7]. - **European Economic Heat Map**: In 2025, GDP growth, industrial confidence, investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, and credit indicators all had different trends. For example, the inflation rate was around 2% - 2.5% [8]. - **Chinese Economic Heat Map**: In 2025, net exports contributed 30.3% to GDP, investment 25.2%, and consumption 44.5%. GDP growth, investment in different sectors, consumption, inflation, and financial indicators showed their own characteristics. For instance, the real estate investment growth rate was negative [9].

农产品月报 | 2026-01-04 减产预期提振棉价，白糖走势依旧承压 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，截止12月底收盘，棉花2605合约14585元/吨，环比上月上涨900元/吨，涨幅6.58%。现货方面，新 疆地区棉花现货价格15392元/吨，环比上月上涨669元/吨，现货基差CF05+807，环比下跌231。全国棉花现货 加权均价15556元/吨，环比上月上涨660元/吨，现货基差CF05+971，环比下跌240。 国际方面，据USDA，12月中旬出口销售回落至正常水平，巴基斯坦、孟加拉签约明显修复。中国签约装运环比 回落。截止12月18日当周，2025/26美陆地棉周度签约4.14万吨，环比减40%，较四周平均水平降2%，同比降 6%，其中越南签约2.03万吨，巴基斯坦0.67万吨；2026/27年度美陆地棉周度签约0.02万吨；2025/26美陆地棉 周度装运3.33万吨，环比增长9%，较四周平均水平增23%，同比增14%，其中越南装运0.92万吨，巴基斯坦装运 0.36万吨。 国内方面，截止到2026年1月3日24点，2025棉花年度全国共有1094家棉花加工企业按照棉花质量检验体制改革 ...

尿素月报 | 2026-01-04 需求柔性支撑，关注采购节奏及消息扰动 市场要闻与数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1749元/吨（+6）；河南小颗粒市场价1700元/吨（+10）；山东小颗粒市场价1710元/吨（+0）； 江苏小颗粒市场价1710元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差-39元/吨（-6）；河南尿素基差-49元/吨（+4）；江苏尿素基差-39 元/吨（-6）。12月先跌后涨，上半月随着下游畏高情绪凸显，储备节奏放缓，期现价格共振下跌。部分区域环保限 制导致下游开工下降，随后上游部分企业也受影响供应下滑，月中随着印度NFL发布新一轮尿素进口招标，尿素 现货成交氛围好转，带动价格上涨，环保预警再现，尿素部分上下游开工受限，现货价格降价吸单，现货采购情 绪再度好转。 供应端：截至2026-01-04，企业产能利用率78.78%（-1.9%）；尿素月度产量为600万吨，同比+7.66%。尿素12月部 分气头进入检修，装置检修与复产并行，月度产量较11月小幅增加。8月安徽中能、章丘日月投产，9月九江心连 心投产，10月甘肃金昌投产，11月新疆中能投产。1月暂定3套气头装置计划检修，部分气头检修企业以及前期技 改装置回 ...