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建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:30
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: November 20, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Polyolefin prices are expected to remain under pressure due to weak cost support and a continuously loose supply - demand situation, but may be weakly supported by periodic restocking demand and will likely oscillate in the bottom range [6] Group 4: Analysis by Section 1. Market Review and Outlook - Futures opened low and fluctuated, with subdued market trading. Traders adjusted prices downward, and downstream buyers restocked at low prices. Supply losses from maintenance decreased, and weekly production increased as expected. Demand is expected to weaken in November, and downstream buyers have returned to purchasing based on rigid demand. Cost support is hard to find as OPEC+ pauses production increases in Q1 2026 but can't reverse the oversupply situation [6] - L2601 closed at 6833 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.22%), with 280,000 lots traded and a decrease of 19,678 lots in positions. PP2601 closed at 6434 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (0.11%), with a decrease of 18,039 lots in positions [6] 2. Industry News - On November 19, 2025, major producers' inventory was 700,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (1.41%) from the previous workday, compared to 660,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - PE market prices are weak. LLDPE prices in North China are in the range of 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton, in East China 6900 - 7400 yuan/ton, and in South China 7000 - 7400 yuan/ton [7] - The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong is 5920 - 5980 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous workday. Downstream factory procurement is active, demand support is strong, supply is tight, and some enterprises control volume and offer at a premium [7] - PP market prices fluctuate slightly. The mainstream price of North China drawn wire is 6200 - 6380 yuan/ton, in East China 6280 - 6500 yuan/ton, and in South China 6400 - 6540 yuan/ton [7] 3. Data Overview - The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][12][15]
建信期货股指日评-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:30
Report Type - Stock Index Daily Review [1] Date - November 20, 2025 [2] Researchers - Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), contact: 021 - 60635735, email: niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03124070 [3] - He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, email: hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, email: huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3051589 [3] 1. Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On November 19, the Wind All - A Index declined on lower volume, trending down after opening, recovering in the afternoon and then weakening again, closing down 0.30%. The CSI 300 and SSE 50 closed up 0.44% and 0.58% respectively, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 closed down 0.40% and 0.82% respectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks performing better. In the futures market, the IF and IH main contracts closed up 0.22% and 0.45% respectively, generally weaker than the spot, and the IC and IM main contracts closed down 0.35% and 0.73% respectively, generally stronger than the spot (based on closing prices) [6] 1.2 Outlook - External markets: Sino - Japanese relations continue to deteriorate, slightly increasing market risk - aversion sentiment. Domestic situation: October economic data shows both supply and demand weakened. The total retail sales of consumer goods in October increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year. The decline rates of both narrowed and reached their lowest levels since September 2024. The investment side continued to shrink, with the cumulative fixed - asset investment from January to October decreasing by 1.7% year - on - year, and the decline rate widening by 1.2 percentage points compared with the previous month. The year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing and infrastructure further narrowed, and the decline in real estate investment further expanded. Overall, the marginal pressure on domestic economic data has further increased, awaiting policy support. In terms of liquidity, the margin trading balance remains at a high level, supporting the index. The total turnover of the All - A Index shrank to 1.74 trillion yuan. In the short term, policy expectations have weakened recently, and technically, it is near the key pressure level of 4000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index. However, the basis repair shows that market sentiment is not overly pessimistic. It is expected that the index may maintain a volatile trend in the short term, and the market style should adopt a barbell strategy, with balanced allocation between the CSI 300 and CSI 500 [8] 3. Industry News - Regarding China's notification to Japan of the suspension of Japanese aquatic product imports, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated at a regular press conference on the 19th that Japan previously promised to fulfill its regulatory responsibilities for aquatic products exported to China and ensure product quality and safety, which is a prerequisite for Japanese aquatic products to enter the Chinese market. However, Japan has failed to provide the promised technical materials. Recently, due to the wrong remarks of Japanese Prime Minister Takamichi Sanae on major issues such as Taiwan, which have aroused strong public indignation in China, "even if Japanese aquatic products are exported to China, there will be no market" [32]
建信期货MEG日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:25
1. Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: November 20, 2025 [2] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core Viewpoint - The current supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is still expected to be weak, and the macro - market sentiment is cautious. It is expected that ethylene glycol will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [7] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures market: The closing price of EG2601 was 3903 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the closing price of EG2605 was 4000 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The trading volume was 179,353 lots, and the open interest was 329,949 lots. The open interest of EG2601 decreased by 2,263 lots, while that of EG2605 increased by 2,431 lots [7] 4.2 Industry News - Crude oil: Due to concerns about distillate supply, diesel prices soared, driving up crude oil futures. On November 18, the settlement price of WTI crude oil December 2025 futures was $60.74 per barrel, up $0.83 or 1.39%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil January 2026 futures was $64.89 per barrel, up $0.69 or 1.07% [8] - Ethylene glycol market: The spot negotiation price in Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market this week was 3929 - 3931 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The current - week spot basis had a premium of 26 - 28 yuan/ton over EG2601 [8] - Industry operating rate: The operating load rate of the Chinese ethylene glycol industry was 60.73%, down 1.13 percentage points. The operating load rate of ethylene - based ethylene glycol was 68.05%, up 0.3 percentage points, while that of syngas - based ethylene glycol was 49.69%, down 3.27 percentage points [8] 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides data charts on PTA - MEG spread, MEG price, MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory [10][15][16][18]
建信期货集运指数日报-20251119
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 12:50
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core View - The 12 - month contract was weak due to the under - expected price increase implementation, while the far - month price increase expectation has fermented in advance, which may lead to over - valuation of the 04 contract. It is advisable to focus on the positive spread trading opportunity between 02 - 04 contracts [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On Friday after the market, the Shanghai Futures Exchange clarified that the last trading day of the February contract is February 9, and the expectation of the pre - Spring Festival shipping rush further fermented in the February contract. The December contract was weak as the price increase implementation was less than expected. The SCFIS index fell 9.8% week - on - week to 1357.67 this week. Shipping companies' online quotes changed little. Airlines have not formed a unified price - holding force, and the price increase implementation in December was less than expected, but there is still a far - month price increase expectation [8]. 2. Industry News - From November 10 to November 14, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, and the freight rates of ocean routes continued to show a differentiated trend, with the composite index slightly declining. In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year. On November 14, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1451.38 points, down 2.9% from the previous period. The eurozone's November ZEW economic sentiment index was 25, up from the previous value. The freight rate of the European route increased by 7.1%, the Mediterranean route was stable, and the North American route continued to adjust. There were also statements from Israeli and Turkish officials regarding the Palestinian - Israeli issue [9][10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - On November 17, 2025, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1357.67, down 9.8% from November 10; the SCFIS for the US - West route (basic ports) was 1238.42, down 6.9% from November 10 [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Provided trading data for multiple contracts of container shipping European line futures on November 18, including pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Included multiple charts such as container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][23]
建信期货白糖日报-20251119
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 11:12
行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 19 日 研究员:王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3055047 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 | 表1:期货行情 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | | 收盘价(元/吨 美分/磅) | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量(张) | 增减 | | SR601 | | 5407 | -58 | -1.06% | 363213 | 4030 | | SR605 | | 5357 | -46 | -0.85% | 137483 | 8731 | | 美糖 | 03 | 14.75 | -0.21 | -1.40% | 480441 | -5459 ...
碳酸锂期货日报-20251119
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 11:05
1. Report Information - Report title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 3. Core View - Carbonate lithium futures rose and then fell, with the main contract closing at 93,520 at the end of the session. The total open interest decreased by 96,376 lots. After the market closed, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange raised the trading fees for the 2601 contract to cool down the overheated trading enthusiasm. The price of spot electric carbon increased by 1,250, Australian ore by 60, mica by 125, 6F by 3,500, electrolyte remained flat, ternary materials by 200 - 300, and lithium iron phosphate by 300. In the short term, the industrial chain continued to see price increases, but the futures price had risen too much compared to the spot price, so there was pressure for the futures and spot prices to converge. The short - term futures price increase would continue to slow down, while the medium - term outlook was still bullish [9] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures showed a trend of rising and then falling. The main contract closed at 93,520 at the end of the session, and the total open interest dropped by 96,376 lots. After - market, the exchange raised trading fees. Spot prices of various related materials increased, but the futures price had a large increase compared to the spot, leading to pressure for price convergence. Short - term price increase would slow, and the medium - term was bullish [9] 4.2 Industry News - Shengxin Lithium Energy announced a cooperation framework agreement with Huayou Holding Group Co., Ltd. for lithium salt product business from 2026 to 2030. Huayou Holding Group will purchase 221,400 tons of lithium salt products from the company during this period, and the annual purchase volume will be specified in subsequent sub - orders [10] - Hunan Yueneng's wholly - owned subsidiary, Yueneng Recycling, started the construction of a project for the disassembly and recycling of 20,000 tons of waste lithium - ion batteries per year and a project for the production of 30,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate per year in the Xiangxiang Economic Development Zone. The total project investment is 630 million yuan, with the battery recycling project investing 150 million yuan. The lithium carbonate project uses spodumene as raw material and a roasting - acidification - leaching process. The company is also promoting upstream projects such as a 200,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate precursor change project and black powder recycling [10]
建信期货锌期货日报-20251119
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 11:03
Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Macro cooling and continuous LME zinc warehousing led to a downward shift in the center of LME zinc. On the 18th, LME inventory increased by 3,550 tons to 39,975 tons, with warehousing in Singapore, Kaohsiung, and Hong Kong. The low - inventory concern eased, the Cash - 3M Back structure dropped to 104.97, and the SHFE/LME ratio recovered to 7.5. The domestic non - ferrous market continued to correct, and SHFE zinc broke below the middle Bollinger Band. The main contract closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 0.58%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 20 yuan/ton [7]. - The intraday market weakened compared to the previous day, but the spot premium increased. The Shanghai market had a premium of 180 yuan/ton over the December contract, the Tianjin market reported a discount of 50 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market reported a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the January 2026 contract. Some zinc ingot exports led to a significant decrease in inventory, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly [7]. - With the reduction of northern mines in China and the concentrated release of smelters' winter stockpiling demand, the supply of domestic zinc ore was tight. The panic buying by smelters pushed down the processing fees. SMM estimated that the refined zinc output in November might decline slightly month - on - month. The tightening of the ore end was transmitted to the ingot end, providing support for zinc prices. In the short term, zinc prices were expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton, and the current price was at the lower end of the range. Attention should be paid to the support at 22,200 yuan [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review - Futures market data: For SHFE zinc 2512, the opening price was 22,460 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,310 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,465 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,265 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 0.58%, with a position of 82,326 and a position change of 76,806. For SHFE zinc 2601, the opening price was 22,495 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,330 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,495 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,295 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan or 0.65%, with a position of 82,373 and a position change of - 9,077. For SHFE zinc 2602, the opening price was 22,540 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,345 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,540 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,305 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan or 0.73%, with a position of 29,010 and a position change of - 49,321 [7]. 2. Industry News - On November 18, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated in the range of 22,435 - 22,555 yuan/ton, double - swallow brand in the range of 22,455 - 22,575 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc in the range of 22,365 - 22,485 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 150 - 160 yuan/ton over the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the market [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22,435 - 22,475 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo quoted a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract and a premium of 80 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. The mainstream in the Ningbo area quoted against the 2512 contract. In the first period, the pre - sale of Qilin brand quoted a delivered premium of 180 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract [8]. - In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded in the range of 22,240 - 22,430 yuan/ton, Zijin brand in the range of 22,470 - 22,560 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc ingots around 22,170 - 22,270 yuan/ton. The Huludao brand was quoted at 23,320 yuan/ton. The common 0 zinc quoted a discount of 50 to a premium of 50 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, and Zijin brand quoted a premium of 180 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract. The Tianjin market reported a discount of about 50 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8]. - In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was mainly traded in the range of 22,215 - 22,350 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a discount of 70 - 25 yuan/ton to the 2601 contract and a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened. In the first period, holders of Qilin, Mengzi, Danxia, Anning, and Lanxing brands quoted a discount of 70 - 25 yuan/ton. In the second period, Qilin, Mengzi, Anning, and Lanxing brands quoted a discount of 70 - 35 yuan/ton to the net price [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report presented figures such as the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots (in ten thousand tons), LME zinc inventory (in tons), the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE month - to - month spreads, with data sources including Wind and SMM [12][14]
建信期货铁矿石日评-20251119
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 11:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 18, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 fluctuated upward, closing at 792.0 yuan/ton, up 1.41%. Currently, the iron ore demand side is weak and the fundamentals are under pressure overall. However, the decline in coking coal prices has brought some room for growth in steel enterprise profits, alleviating the pressure on iron ore. Technically, the support at the lower edge of the previous oscillation range of the iron ore market is strong, providing some support for the ore price, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation trend of the short - term ore price. The subsequent situation depends on whether there are signs of continued improvement in steel enterprise profits [7][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook for the Future 3.1.1 Market Review - On November 18, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract fluctuated upward, opening at 786.5 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 792 yuan/ton, a low of 781 yuan/ton, and closing at 792 yuan/ton, up 1.41%. The main iron ore outer - disk quotes were flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 0 - 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to rise, and the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract expanded after the golden cross the previous day [7][9] 3.1.2 Outlook for the Future - In terms of supply, the shipments from Australia and Brazil have declined, and the arrivals have fallen from a high. Considering the decline in the cumulative shipments in the past four weeks, the subsequent arrival volume is expected to continue to decline, showing a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. The first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea last week has a limited short - term shipment volume and limited actual impact, but under the expectation of increased supply, the price of the far - month contract of iron ore may be suppressed. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output increased after six consecutive weeks of decline, currently at 235.88 tons. The increase in pig iron output last week was mainly due to the repair of steel production profits. The production profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces have been significantly repaired in the past week, driving up the production enthusiasm of steel enterprises. The sustainability of profit repair needs further observation. For the five major steel products, both production and demand declined last week, and the decline in demand slowed down. Considering the cold weather, the demand for construction steel may continue to be suppressed. In terms of inventory, steel mills have returned to the state of replenishing inventory on demand, with the available inventory days at a relatively low level of 21 days this year. The port inventory has continued to accumulate and has now exceeded 150 million tons, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate slightly in the future [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - According to Pengpai News, on November 18, the Chinese Foreign Ministry made solemn representations to Japan regarding the wrong remarks of Japanese Prime Minister Takamori Sanae on China - related issues. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel output in October 2025 was 71.997 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%; the cumulative crude steel output from January to October was 817.874 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price difference between high - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, sample steel mills' tax - free pig iron cost, blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, national daily average pig iron output, apparent consumption of five major steel products, weekly output of five major steel products, and steel mills' inventory of five major steel products. The data sources are Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][29][34]
建信期货镍日报-20251119
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 11:02
日期 2025 年 11 月 19 日 有色金属研究团队 行业 镍日报 研究员:余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 研究员:彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 镍观点: 受宏观转弱以及基本面高库存压制,沪镍继续下跌,18 日主力合约进一步刷 新低点,几近最低价收盘,报 114840 元/吨。金川镍平均升水较上日涨 150 报 4050, 国产电积镍升贴水涨 75 报 100-400。8-12%高镍生铁均价下跌 3 至 899.5 元/镍点, 电池级硫酸镍均价较上日下跌 50 至 28330 元/吨。产业链价格均走弱。印尼矿端 短期支撑有限,而镍终端需求拖累显著。不锈钢市场已进入年末的消费淡季 ...
建信期货铝日报-20251119
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 11:02
行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 19 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员:余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 研究员:彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 铝观点: 18 日沪铝继续下跌,跌幅较前几日有所扩大,主力 2601 跌至 21465,跌幅 1.22%,总持仓较上一交易日大幅减少 6 万余手至 680374 手,显示资金离场迹象。 现货上,伴随铝价下行,采购情绪进一步回升,但下游观望情绪也随之升温,尚 未出现大规模补库行为,日内华东贴水-30,中原贴水-150,华南贴水-165。进口 窗口关闭,但沪伦比值上修明显,现货进口亏损大幅收窄 500 至-1500 元/吨左右。 国产矿相 ...