Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 21, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Tin prices rose passively, and there is still some pressure above [3]. Key Points by Content 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - **Price Volatility**: The latest closing price of tin is 267,250 yuan/ton, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility is 14.08%, and the current volatility historical percentile is 25.1% [2]. - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price decline, sell 75% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2509C275000 call options when volatility is appropriate [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory and fear of price increase, buy 50% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2509P245000 put options when volatility is appropriate [2]. 2. Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, semiconductor sector in expansion cycle, Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Tariff policy fluctuation, inflow of Myanmar tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5][6]. 3. Nanhua's View on Tin Prices - Tin prices are still in an overall oscillating trend recently. The macro - level US tariff policy change has limited impact on tin. In the short term, considering the imminent outflow of Myanmar ore and no signs of further improvement in downstream demand, the view that the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support still holds [7]. 4. Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data (Daily)**: - Shanghai Tin main contract: latest price 267,250 yuan/ton, daily increase of 2,710 yuan, daily increase rate of 1.02% [2][8]. - Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract: latest price 267,470 yuan/ton, daily increase of 2,840 yuan, daily increase rate of 1.07% [8]. - Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract: latest price 267,250 yuan/ton, daily increase of 2,900 yuan, daily increase rate of 1.1% [9]. - LME Tin 3M: latest price 33,355 US dollars/ton, daily increase of 285 US dollars, daily increase rate of 0.86% [9]. - Shanghai - London ratio: latest ratio 7.96, daily increase of 0.04, daily increase rate of 0.51% [9]. - **Spot Data (Weekly)**: - Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot: latest price 267,200 yuan/ton, weekly increase of 700 yuan, weekly increase rate of 0.26% [16]. - 1 tin premium: latest price 500 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 100 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 16.67% [16]. - 40% tin concentrate: latest price 253,500 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,200 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.47% [17]. - 60% tin concentrate: latest price 257,500 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,200 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.46% [17]. - Solder bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous: latest price 172,250 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,000 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.58% [17]. - Solder bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous: latest price 179,750 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,000 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.55% [17]. - Lead - free solder: latest price 271,250 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,500 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.55% [17]. 5. Tin Import and Processing Data - **Import Profit and Loss and Processing Fees (Daily)**: - Tin import profit and loss: latest price - 16,228.79 yuan/ton, daily decrease of 684.78 yuan, daily increase rate of 4.41% [19]. - 40% tin ore processing fee: latest price 12,200 yuan/ton, no change [19]. - 60% tin ore processing fee: latest price 10,550 yuan/ton, no change [19]. 6. Tin Inventory Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Inventory (Daily)**: - Total tin warehouse receipts: latest quantity 6,817 tons, daily increase of 104 tons, daily increase rate of 1.55% [23]. - Tin warehouse receipts in Guangdong: latest quantity 4,524 tons, daily increase of 122 tons, daily increase rate of 2.77% [23]. - Tin warehouse receipts in Shanghai: latest quantity 1,412 tons, daily decrease of 8 tons, daily decrease rate of - 0.56% [23]. - **LME Tin Inventory**: latest quantity 1,935 tons, daily decrease of 100 tons, daily decrease rate of - 4.91% [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The external market strengthened under the expectation of Sino-US talks, and the domestic market followed the positive spread logic. The rapeseed sector was relatively strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is still a gap in fourth - quarter vessel bookings, and the overall meal prices will reach an inflection point this year. From a valuation perspective, the downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and with the expectation of a resilient Brazilian premium, the far - month futures prices are expected to receive marginal upward driving forces [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 13.2%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1637 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.25 [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | To prevent inventory losses, short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs | M2509 | Sell | 25% | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | To prevent rising meal prices from increasing procurement costs, buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2509 | Buy | 50% | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | To prevent losses from excessive imported inventory, short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and cover production costs | M2509 | Sell | 50% | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The external market strengthened under the expectation of Sino - US talks, and the domestic market followed the positive spread logic. The rapeseed sector was relatively strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is a gap in fourth - quarter vessel bookings, and meal prices will reach an inflection point. The downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and far - month futures prices may rise [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors No relevant content provided. 3.5 Bearish Factors - The supply pressure at the spot end is mainly reflected in the basis. The futures market lacks short - selling pressure due to the roll - over of hedging positions. - The arrivals in July, August, and September are 11.5 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10 million tons respectively, with a gap after December. - The rapeseed meal inventory is increasing slightly, the near - month futures warehouse receipt pressure is easing, and there are short - term supply rhythm issues. The market has rebounded. The market has repeatedly priced in the information of Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian meetings, and attention should be paid to the recovery of rapeseed supply [6]. 3.6 Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3087 | 9 | 0.29% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2752 | 8 | 0.29% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3069 | 13 | 0.43% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2415 | 21 | 0.88% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2366 | 14 | 0.6% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2727 | 5 | 0.18% | [7] 3.7 CBOT and Exchange Rate - CBOT yellow soybeans are at 1035 with no change (0%). The offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1785, down 0.0001 (0%) [10]. 3.8 Spreads - The spreads between different soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as the spreads between spot and futures prices and basis are provided in the report [11]. 3.9 Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4809.2202 | - 41.4821 | 0.0444 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3956.71 | 21.56 | 62.69 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 781.987 | - 5.4181 | - 21.3411 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 903.0352 | - 41.4821 | - 78.2827 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 153.7991 | 0.0531 | 0.1373 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 301 | - 4 | - 3 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 292 | - 8 | 0 | [12]

国债期货日报 2025年7月21日 左侧尝试 观点：交易盘试多，需要带好止损 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 国债期货跳空低开，T2509低开一毛钱，早盘偏弱震荡，午后小幅上行，跌幅收窄。资金方面，公开市场到 期2262亿，央行新做1707亿，净回笼555亿。流动性有所改善，DR001加权从上周五的1.45%回到1.35%附 近，午后隔夜匿名价格回到1.3%。非银流动性同样充裕，交易所资金价格日内震荡下行，同样回落到1.35% 附近。 日内消息： | TS2509 | 102.416 | 102.434 | -0.018 | 102.378 | TS合约持仓(手） | 122170 | 123247 | -1077 | 34519 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TF2509 | 105.935 | 106.005 | -0.07 | 105.885 | TF合约持仓(手） | 209691 | 206287 | 3404 | 208905 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Urea is in a situation with support below and suppression above. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short - term, it may follow the overall strength of commodities. In the medium - term, with the gradual opening of the export channel, there may be a phased rebound, but the agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will continue to be under pressure in the second half of the year [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for urea in the monthly period is 1650 - 1950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 62.1%. For methanol, the price range is 2200 - 2400, volatility is 20.01%, and historical percentile is 51.2%. For polypropylene and plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with volatility of 10.56% and 15.24% respectively, and historical percentiles of 42.2% and 78.5% [3] 3.2 Urea Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about urea price drops, for a long - position inventory, to prevent inventory superposition losses, 25% of UR2509 can be sold at 1800 - 1950 to lock in profits. Also, 50% of UR2509P1850 can be bought at 15 - 20, and 50% of UR2509C1950 can be sold at 45 - 60 to prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement standing inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position inventory, 50% of UR2509 can be bought at 1750 - 1900 to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs. 75% of UR2509P1750 can be sold at 20 - 25 to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote key industries to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity, driving the overall strength of commodities. Urea may follow this trend in the short - term. In the medium - term, with export提货 by traders, inventory is unlikely to accumulate significantly, and factory quotes are rising slightly, supporting the price. However, agricultural demand is weakening, and the fundamentals will be under pressure in the second half of the year [4] 3.4利多 and 利空 Interpretations - **利多**: Urea exports have been confirmed. In a market with strong speculation, the futures are expected to show wide - range fluctuations, and the lower support has increased [4] - **利空**: Domestic policies require factories to sell urea at low prices, which has a negative impact on the spot market sentiment [4]

南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年07月21日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅&多晶硅期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 日涨跌 | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 39.2% | 4.34% | 96.8% | 0.6% | | 多晶硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 44.48% | -1.47% | 81.61% | -3.6% | | 行 为 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | | 向 | | | | | | | 库 | | 为了防止存货减值，根据企业库存情况，做空期货来锁定利 | 主力合约 | 卖出 | 依据计划 | | | | 润，弥补企业 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - lithium salt price drop again" and a step - by - step upward chain of "futures price increase - production capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two phases: the futures price will fluctuate upward in early Q3 due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "off - season not so off" phenomenon; in Q4, the futures price is expected to decline as technological upgrades are completed and production volume is concentratedly released [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment, supply - side disruptions, and the market trading of the contradiction between high open interest and low warrant numbers. Negative factors include high future lithium ore production expectations, continuous inventory accumulation, and industrial technology upgrades [3][5]. Summary by Directory Futures Data - **Futures Price and Volume**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract was 71,280 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,320 yuan (1.89%) and a weekly increase of 4,800 yuan (7.22%). The trading volume was 848,150 lots, a daily decrease of 358,173 lots (- 29.69%) and a weekly decrease of 166,408 lots (- 16.40%). The open interest was 381,185 lots, a daily increase of 3,880 lots (1.03%) and a weekly increase of 25,024 lots (7.03%) [8]. - **Futures Spread**: The LC08 - 11 spread was 1,060 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 200 yuan (- 15.87%) and a weekly increase of 340 yuan (47.22%); the LC09 - 11 spread was 1,080 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 260 yuan (- 19%) and a weekly increase of 600 yuan (125%); the LC11 - 12 spread was 60 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 60 yuan (- 50%) and a weekly decrease of 460 yuan (- 115%) [10]. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Price**: The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) was 1,545 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan (2.66%) and a weekly increase of 95 yuan (6.55%); the average price of lithium spodumene (Li2O: 6%, Brazilian CIF) was 755 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 25 US dollars (3.42%) and a weekly increase of 65 US dollars (9.42%) [15]. - **Lithium Salt Price**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 66,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,300 yuan (2.00%) and a weekly increase of 3,300 yuan (5.23%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,350 yuan (2.03%) and a weekly increase of 3,350 yuan (5.18%) [18]. - **Downstream Product Price**: The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 32,075 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 320 yuan (1.01%) [22]. Basis and Warrant Data - **Basis**: The basis of the main continuous contract of lithium carbonate and brand - based basis quotes of different companies are provided, with most showing no daily change [26]. - **Warrant Quantity**: The total warrant quantity decreased from 10,239 to 9,969, a decrease of 270. Some warehouses had a reduction in warrant quantity, such as Wugang Wuxi and Jiangsu Benniu Port [31]. Cost and Profit - **Production and Import Profit**: The production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as theoretical delivery profit and import profit trends are presented, but specific profit values are not summarized here [29].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 21, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019531) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 39.16% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short sell the bu2509 asphalt futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a selling ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a buying ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton [2] Group 4: Core Contradictions - The asphalt supply - demand situation remains stable. Factory inventories are decreasing, while social inventories are decreasing slowly. Speculative demand is weakening, and traders are actively reducing inventory. The basis in Shandong and East China has weakened due to increased production rates, and the crack spread remains high. Currently, supply growth exceeds expectations, and demand is in the off - season due to rainfall, causing the overall fundamentals to weaken month - on - month. However, due to the strong performance of crude oil on the cost side, the absolute price shows an oscillating trend, and the month - spread, basis, and crack spread have all weakened to some extent. In the long - term, demand will pick up as construction conditions improve in August, and the peak construction season arrives. The debt - resolution progress of local governments in 2025 is accelerating, and funds are easing. With the "14th Five - Year Plan" nearing completion, project numbers are guaranteed, and the peak season is still expected. In the short - term, the market sentiment has improved due to the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity [3] Group 5: Price and Basis Data Spot Prices - On July 21, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3855 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan/day, 45 yuan/week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the South China spot price was 3590 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/day, 20 yuan/week) [6] Basis - The Shandong spot 09 basis was 198 yuan/ton (up 33 yuan/day, 34 yuan/week), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 123 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/day, 11 yuan/week), the North China spot 09 basis was 93 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/day, 11 yuan/week), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 67 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/day, 31 yuan/week) [6][9] Crack Spread - The Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 171.0588 yuan/barrel (up 6.0027 yuan/day, 6.6955 yuan/week), and the futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 136.7478 yuan/barrel (up 0.2843 yuan/day, 0.8038 yuan/week) [9] Group 6: Factors Affecting the Market Bullish Factors - Low pressure on asphalt factory inventories provides a basis for manufacturers to support prices; demand seasonal peak season; low production starts with expectations of catch - up construction in the South; strong atmosphere of eliminating backward production capacity [8] Bearish Factors - After the end of maintenance, production at some refineries resumes; short - term demand is dragged down by the plum - rain season in the South; slow reduction of social inventories and weakening basis [8]

甲醇价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 | 2200-2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 甲醇产业风险管理日报 2025/07/21 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 港口库存方面，本周预计外轮抵港码头较为分散，到港量较为充足，预计港口甲醇库存累库。 . 甲醇套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心甲醇价格下 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况， ...

上周贵金属市场整体震荡，周内美指收涨，10Y美债收益率冲高回落，目前贵金属市场主要聚焦于特朗普关 税政策（8月1日前美国与其他国家贸易谈判以及对关键矿产调查）与美联储降息前景（7月31日FOMC会议 以及特朗普对美联储的施压）两个维度。周二晚间公布的美国6月CPI同比上涨2.7%，为2月以来最高纪录， 预期2.6%，前值2.4%；环比0.3%，符合预期，前值0.1%，涨幅扩大主要受能源价格上涨影响。核心CPI同比 上涨2.9%，符合预期，前值2.8%；环比涨幅0.2%，高于前值0.1%，但低于预期0.3%，为连续第五个月低于 预期。数据整体反映关税对美通胀影响仍处于初步阶段。数据后贵金属承压调整，降息预期整体略有降温。 美联储26年票委洛根表示，基准预期是货币政策需要继续保持紧缩一段时间，以抑制通胀。周三晚间贵金属 波动加剧，因报道称特朗普已起草解雇鲍威尔信函，此后特朗普回应还不打算将其免职，引发贵金属市场先 涨后回吐的走势，其他金融资产亦剧烈波动。周四凌晨公布的美联储褐皮书显示，自五月底至七月初，经济 活动略有增长，经济前景偏中性至略偏悲观，只有两个地区预期经济活动将增长，其他地区则预计经济活动 将持平或略 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current market has entered the fruit expansion period of apples. It is estimated that there is a high possibility that the overall market will maintain a volatile pattern from June to August. Attention should be paid to the opening price of early - maturing apples. Currently, the opening price of early - maturing apples is higher than last year and they are selling well, while the price of stored apples is dropping and they are not selling well [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for apples is 7650 - 7950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 1.4% [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For those worried about a national bumper harvest of new apples and low purchase prices, with a long spot position, they can short apple futures (AP2510) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 7900 - 7950 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about a decline in old - crop apple inventory and a new - crop apple减产, with a short spot position, they can buy apple futures (AP2510) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% [3]. Core Contradictions - The market is in the apple fruit expansion period, with few trading points on the disk. The market is likely to be volatile from June to August. Early - maturing apples have a higher opening price than last year and sell well, while stored apples have falling prices and poor sales [4]. Bullish Factors - The inventory in apple - producing areas is at a historical low. The low initial inventory and faster - than - usual de - stocking speed have led to a continuous decline in inventory, which supports the market [5]. - Unstable weather in the producing areas has attracted capital attention. Research data shows that the fruit - setting situation in the northwest producing areas is poor, and there may be a significant减产 [8]. Bearish Factors - The overall减产 amplitude from bagging data is less than expected, and some data even shows an expected increase in production [8]. - As the peak season of seasonal fruits arrives, the large supply of fruits like watermelons, grapes, and lychees at low prices impacts the apple market. Also, high - priced apples face a situation of "high price but no market", indicating weak consumption [6][8]. Apple Inventory and Market Data - On July 18, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory according to Steel Union was 80.6 (with a weekly change of - 10.89), and according to Zhuochuang was 100.07 (with a weekly change of - 8.76). The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu also decreased [9]. - The arrival volume of apples at some wholesale markets in Guangdong showed changes, such as 18 vehicles at Guangdong Chalong (a weekly increase of 2) [9]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On July 18, 2025, the closing prices and daily/weekly price changes of different apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) are provided, as well as the prices and price changes of different grades of spot apples in various regions [6].