Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Trump's statement on the cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to a sharp drop in oil prices at the opening, causing a general decline in chemical products. PE supply is contracting due to the conflict - related shutdown of Iranian polyolefin plants and domestic PE device maintenance, while demand is mainly for刚需 restocking in the off - season. Overall, the current supply - demand pressure of PE is not significant, and attention should be paid to import arrivals and full - density device conversion [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7000 - 7400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.74%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 40.1% [2]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management** - For high - inventory situations worried about price drops, shorting L2509 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 7300 - 7400 range can prevent inventory depreciation. Selling L2509C7300 call options at a 50% ratio in the 70 - 120 range can collect premiums and lock in selling prices [2]. - For low - inventory situations, buying L2509 futures at a 50% ratio in the 7100 - 7200 range can prevent price increases in procurement. Selling L2509P7100 put options at a 75% ratio in the 50 - 100 range can collect premiums and lock in buying prices [2]. Core Contradictions - Supply contraction: The Israel - Iran conflict led to plant shutdowns in Iran, and domestic PE devices are in maintenance, with full - density device conversion reducing the supply of standard products. Demand is mainly for刚需 restocking in the off - season. Attention should be paid to import arrivals and full - density device conversion [3]. Bullish Factors - PE devices are in seasonal maintenance until July. The high HDPE - LLDPE price difference leads to full - density device conversion, and low HDPE inventory can absorb the supply pressure. The Israel - Iran conflict may reduce PE imports from Iran [4]. Bearish Factors - Multiple HDPE devices are planned to be put into operation in the middle of the year. The off - season and low - profit environment reduce domestic demand [5]. Market Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - The plastic main - contract basis, L01, L05, and L09 contracts all showed certain changes compared to previous days and weeks. Month - to - month spreads (L1 - 5, L5 - 9, L9 - 1) and the L - P spread also had significant changes [6][8]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads** - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China changed, and regional spreads (East - North, East - South) also showed fluctuations [8]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads** - Spreads between various HDPE products and LLDPE films, as well as between LDPE and LLDPE films, changed [8]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits** - Brent crude oil prices, US ethane prices, coal prices, and methanol prices all changed, affecting the processing profits of different PE production methods [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness in styrene remains unchanged, but recent futures prices are greatly affected by macro factors. It is recommended to wait and see, and it is more prudent to enter short positions after the macro situation stabilizes [3] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Styrene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for styrene is 6800 - 7600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 29.40% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 85.8% [2] 3.2 Styrene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory depreciation, short 25% of styrene futures (EB2508) at 7400 - 7300 yuan/ton; sell 50% of call options (EB2508C7500) at 90 - 200 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if styrene rises [2] - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventory, to prevent cost increases, buy 50% of styrene futures (EB2508) at 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton; sell 75% of put options (EB2508P7100) at 110 - 150 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if styrene falls [2] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The near - term strength and long - term weakness pattern of styrene fundamentals remains, but the futures price is significantly affected by macro factors. It is advisable to wait and enter short positions after the macro situation stabilizes [3] 3.4利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - Geopolitical unrest causes oil price fluctuations; approaching the June paper - cargo delivery, the near - term basis of styrene is firm [4] 3.5利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - As of June 23, Jiangsu's pure benzene port inventory was 17.1 tons, a 11.76% MoM increase; styrene port inventory was 8.5 tons, a 28.21% MoM increase. The port inventories of both pure benzene and styrene increased this week [4] - The previously shut - down pure benzene and styrene plants are gradually resuming production, and the peak maintenance period has passed. The maintenance plans of some pure benzene plants originally scheduled for early July have been postponed, leading to a continuous increase in near - term supply [4] - The US Department of Commerce announced on June 12 that a 50% import tariff on household appliances containing steel parts would be imposed from June 23, pressuring the terminal demand for styrene [4] 3.6 Styrene Basis and Industrial Chain Spreads - Data shows the basis differences between different regions and futures contracts of styrene and the spreads in the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain on June 24 and June 23 [6] 3.7 Styrene Daily Report - Industrial Chain Prices - Presents the prices of various products in the styrene industrial chain on June 24, June 23, and June 17, including Brent crude oil, naphtha, pure benzene, styrene, and related downstream products, along with their daily changes [6][7]

Report Overview - Report Name: Sugar Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 24, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The current production progress in Brazil is slightly slow, but the sugar - alcohol ratio is relatively high, leading to high expectations for Brazil's new harvest season output in the overseas market. The market has high expectations for increased production in India and Thailand's 25/26 harvest seasons, which suppresses sugar prices. The profit window for out - of - quota imports in the domestic market is open, and the domestic market is slightly stronger, but the rebound strength may be limited [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of sugar is predicted to be between 5600 - 5800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.74% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.1% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5800 - 5850 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SR509C5900) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to collect premiums and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5630 - 5680 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SR509P5600) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3]. Core Contradictions - Brazil's production progress is slow, but the high sugar - alcohol ratio maintains high output expectations. High expectations for increased production in India and Thailand's 25/26 harvest seasons suppress sugar prices. The domestic out - of - quota profit window is open, but the domestic market's rebound strength is limited [4]. 利多解读 - As of the end of May, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 4.6453 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 537,100 tons, and the sales - to - production ratio was 71.85%, a year - on - year increase of 5.39 percentage points [5]. - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India (NFCSF) predicts that India's ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 harvest season will be between 4.8 - 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic sugar consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixes [5]. - From the beginning of the 2025/26 harvest season to the first half of May, the cumulative cane crush in central - southern Brazil was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.466 million tons (20.24%); the cane ATR was 112.25 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 6 kg/ton; the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 48.61%, a year - on - year increase of 1.01%; the cumulative ethanol production was 3.683 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 670 million liters (15.39%); and the cumulative sugar production was 3.989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 million tons (22.68%) [5]. - In May, the total import of syrup and premixes was 64,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 150,700 tons, the second - lowest in the same period in the past five years [5]. 利空解读 - In the 2024/25 harvest season, the cumulative cane crush in Guangxi was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons; the mixed sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,600 tons; and the sugar - making rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points [7]. - Analysis agency JOB predicts that Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 harvest season will increase by 5% to 46 million tons [7]. - Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 harvest season is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [7]. - India's monsoon has arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual. The chairman of the federation expects a strong recovery in sugar production in the 2025/26 harvest season, reaching about 35 million metric tons, due to favorable monsoon conditions, expanded cane planting areas in major producing regions, and the central government's timely increase in the minimum cane purchase price [7]. - In May, 350,000 tons of sugar were imported, a year - on - year increase of 333,100 tons. Although the overall import volume this year is low, the out - of - quota import profit window is open [7]. Sugar Price and Spread Data - **Base Price Changes**: On June 23, 2025, the base prices of different delivery months in Nanning and Kunming showed daily and weekly fluctuations [8]. - **Futures Price and Spread**: On June 24, 2025, the closing prices of different sugar futures contracts showed varying degrees of daily and weekly changes, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [9]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: On June 24, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in different regions and the regional spreads showed daily and weekly changes [10]. - **Sugar Import Price Changes**: On June 24, 2025, the in - quota and out - of - quota import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar and the spreads with domestic prices showed daily and weekly changes [11].

Report Overview - The report is the Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily, dated June 24, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The hype sentiment in the external market's previous trading of the oil logic has weakened with the decline of crude oil. The US soybean is approaching the time - node for confirming the planting area, and the weather conditions in the producing areas should be continuously monitored after the announcement. The real - world pressure in the domestic market will continue to suppress the upward space of the near - month spot and the futures market, while the supply gap and weather - related speculation logic for the far - month contracts still exist. Therefore, reverse spreads and buying far - month contracts on dips are suitable strategies [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.9%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1551 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.1961 [3] - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - Feed mills with low regular purchase inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in purchase costs in advance [3] - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] Core Contradictions - The external market's oil - trading logic hype has weakened with the decline of crude oil. The US soybean is approaching the planting - area confirmation time. In the domestic market, near - month prices are suppressed by real - world pressure, while far - month contracts have supply - gap and weather - speculation factors [4] 利多解读 - No content provided 利空解读 - Supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - month futures through warehouse - receipt registration, likely leading to a weak performance of the soybean meal 09 contract. The supply of soybean raw materials is abundant, oil - mill operating rates are rising, and extraction has increased month - on - month, with some areas urging提货 [6] - In terms of arrivals, 11.5 million tons are expected in July and 9.5 million tons in August. Supply in the third quarter remains abundant, and the supply gap in the fourth quarter depends on Sino - US relations [6] - Rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted slowly, and the downstream finds adding rapeseed meal lack cost - effectiveness. The market's reaction to the news of the WTO establishing a panel to investigate Sino - Canadian tariff issues is inelastic, and the rapeseed meal market will mainly follow the soybean meal market with a weak outlook [6] Futures Price - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3069, down 4 (- 0.13%); soybean meal 05 is 2747, down 6 (- 0.22%); soybean meal 09 is 3037, unchanged (0%) [7] - **Rapeseed Meal Futures**: The closing price of rapeseed meal 01 is 2374, down 4 (- 0.17%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2375, down 10 (- 0.42%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2662, up 5 (0.19%) [10] - **Other Futures**: The closing price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1046.5, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1801, down 0.0201 (- 0.28%) [10] Spread - **Soybean Meal Spread**: M01 - 05 is 322, up 2; M05 - 09 is - 290, down 6; M09 - 01 is - 32, up 4 [11] - **Rapeseed Meal Spread**: RM01 - 05 is - 1, up 6; RM05 - 09 is - 287, down 15; RM09 - 01 is 288, up 9 [11] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2900, down 20, and the basis is - 137, down 20. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2619, down 2, and the basis is - 38, up 20. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 281, down 20, and the futures spread is 375, down 5 [11] Import Cost and Profit - **Import Cost**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4632.1082 yuan/ton, up 6.4408 yuan/ton and down 0.0108 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3830.16 yuan/ton, down 39.56 yuan/ton and up 11.47 yuan/ton week - on - week [12] - **Profit**: The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 777.3132 yuan/ton, up 6.4408 yuan/ton and up 18.4175 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 202.901 yuan/ton, down 15.9385 yuan/ton and down 0.152 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 125 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton and up 111 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot profit is 118 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton and up 110 yuan/ton week - on - week [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market has entered the fruit expansion period of apples. The trading points on the futures market are limited, and it is highly likely that the market will maintain a volatile pattern from June to August. Attention should be paid to the release of tri - party bagging data and the opening price of early - maturing apples. Currently, the opening price of early - maturing Fuji apples is the same as last year, but the production of this variety is small [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of apples is 7300 - 7900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 9.1% over the past three years [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For those worried about a bumper harvest of new apples nationwide and low purchase prices, with a long spot position, it is recommended to short apple futures (AP2510) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 7600 - 7650 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about the decline of old - crop apple inventory and the reduction of new - crop apple production, leading to high purchase prices, with a short spot position, it is recommended to buy apple futures (AP2510) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 7350 - 7450 [3]. Core Contradictions - The market is in the apple fruit expansion period, with few trading points on the futures market. It is likely to be volatile from June to August. Focus on bagging data and early - maturing apple opening prices. The opening price of early - maturing Fuji apples is flat compared to last year, but production is low [4]. 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The inventory in apple - producing areas is at a historical low. The low initial inventory and faster inventory reduction than in previous years have led to a continuous decline in inventory, which supports the futures market [5]. - Unstable weather in apple - producing areas has attracted capital attention. Research data shows that the fruit - setting situation in the northwest producing area is poor, and there may be a significant reduction in production [5]. 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - The overall reduction in production based on bagging conditions is less than expected, and the bagging situation is relatively normal [5]. - As the peak season of seasonal fruits arrives, the large supply of fruits such as watermelons, grapes, and lychees at low prices impacts the apple market. High - priced fruits have no market, indicating weak consumption [5]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On June 24, 2025, the closing prices and daily/weekly price changes of different apple futures contracts (AP01 - AP12, spreads like AP01 - 05, etc.) are provided, along with the prices and daily/weekly price changes of different spot apple varieties (e.g., Qixia first - and second - grade 80, Luochuan semi - commercial 70), as well as data on profit, theoretical delivery price, and basis [6]. Apple Inventory - As of June 20, 2025 (Steel Union data), the national cold - storage inventory was 116.49 (decrease of 10.97), and as of June 12, 2025 (Zhuochuang data), it was 126.69 (decrease of 9.81). The capacity utilization ratios of different regions (Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, etc.) and the weekly changes in the number of trucks arriving at some wholesale markets (Guangdong Chalong, Guangdong Jiangmen, etc.) are also provided [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View - The stock index rose sharply with heavy volume today mainly because Iran and Israel announced a formal cease - fire before the market opened, reducing the geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Except for a slight deepening of the small discount of IH, the discounts of the others converged, indicating an overall boost in market sentiment. However, after the market, new news came from the periphery that the Israeli Defense Forces detected another ballistic missile launch from Iran. The current Middle East situation remains uncertain, and the peripheral positive factors are difficult to drive the stock index continuously. Therefore, the sustainability of the positive market sentiment and the upward movement of the stock index remains to be observed. It is recommended to hold long positions and wait and see [6] Group 3: Market Review - The stock index rose with heavy volume today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 1.20%. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 29.1975 billion yuan. The stock index futures also rose with heavy volume [4] Group 4: Important Information - Iran and Israel announced a formal cease - fire [5] Group 5: Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions and wait and see [7] Group 6: Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 1.38 | 1.02 | 1.70 | 2.37 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.3845 | 6.2832 | 9.4575 | 21.3636 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | 2.0978 | 0.8162 | 1.7867 | 3.0475 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 24.1607 | 8.7538 | 22.1636 | 32.492 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.9891 | 0.2748 | 0.6727 | 0.508 | [7] Group 7: Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 1.15 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.68 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 8.25 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 141.4582 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | 29.1975 | [8]

南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年6月24日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 供需端呈现供减虚增格局，供给端因华南炼厂开工率减低而小幅收缩，库存端环比变动不大，需求体现出一 定的梅雨季节特征。最大的变量依然是伊以冲突引起的地缘溢价，油价大幅上涨沥青裂解走弱，基差走弱， 盘面大幅修复贴水，绝对价格高位。市场理解伊朗报复的程度有限，短期沥青盘面波动完全跟随成本端原油 的走势，目前尚难给出冲突结束的结论，后续需持续关注双方军事进展。短期（6月中下旬-8月初）看进入雨 季造成的需求增速下滑能否匹配高利润下产量增速的抬升，目前初步有一些苗头，短期建议月差正套离场； 中长期看十四五最后一年带来的需求端的增量预期仍然存在，旺季表现仍然可期 。 【利多解读】 1、沥青自身库存结构良好； 2、需求季节性旺季； 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 07 main contract decreased by 2093 lots, closing at 806.5, down 1.47%, while the 09 contract increased by 867 lots, closing at 794.5, down 0.69%. The 7 - 9 month spread dropped to 12. The main spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable, and delivery profits emerged in Jiangsu and Lanshan, opening the spot - futures arbitrage window [3]. - 100 new warehouse receipts from Jiangsu Huihong (Taicang Xinhai Port) were added, with a total of 513 warehouse receipts. The rising futures price created hedging profit margins, stimulating new warehouse receipt generation. With only 4 trading days left until delivery, the capital game is intense [3]. - The lowest deliverable warehouse receipt cost is anchored in Chongqing's 6 - meter medium - A logs, with a delivery cost of about 770 yuan/cubic meter. There is also a nearly risk - free arbitrage space, and it's possible that new ships will be sent to Chongqing for delivery [3]. - The current price also shows hedging profits in Jiangsu and Shandong. Given the off - season demand and difficult spot sales, the arbitrage window will stimulate more hedging demand [3]. - It is recommended that industrial customers seize this hedging opportunity, while non - industrial customers should stay on the sidelines to avoid risks caused by low liquidity and large price fluctuations near the delivery date [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 820, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For high log imports and inventory, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short log futures (lg2507) at a 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 800 - 785, and buy put options (lg2507P775) at a 25% ratio with an entry range of 9.5 - 14. They can also buy put options and sell call options (lg2507C800) at a 50% ratio with an entry range of 4.5 - 7.5 to reduce costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventory, to prevent rising procurement costs, enterprises can buy log futures (lg2507) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 750 - 800. They can also sell put options (lg2507P750) at a 75% ratio with an entry range of 5.5 - 12 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price [2]. Core Contradictions - The 07 main contract decreased by 2093 lots, closing at 806.5, down 1.47%, and the 09 contract increased by 867 lots, closing at 794.5, down 0.69%. The 7 - 9 month spread dropped to 12. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable, and the spot - futures arbitrage window opened [3]. - 100 new warehouse receipts were added, with a total of 513. The rising futures price led to hedging profits and new warehouse receipt generation. With 4 days left until delivery, the capital game is intense [3]. - The lowest deliverable warehouse receipt cost is about 770 yuan/cubic meter in Chongqing. There is an arbitrage space, and new ships may be sent to Chongqing for delivery. Hedging profits also exist in Jiangsu and Shandong, which will stimulate more hedging demand [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Industrial customers are advised to focus on this hedging opportunity, while non - industrial customers should stay on the sidelines to avoid risks caused by low liquidity and large price fluctuations near the delivery date [4]. Spot and Basis - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis (after conversion) of various log specifications at different ports on June 24, 2025. The basis (after conversion) is calculated as the spot price after an 8% volume increase minus the main contract price plus or minus the premium/discount [8]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in May 2025 was 169 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [9]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, the port inventory in China was 335 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 10 and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The port inventories in Shandong and Jiangsu also had corresponding changes [9]. - **Demand**: As of June 20, 2025, the daily average log outbound volume from ports was 6.36 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.38 and a year - on - year increase of 25.7%. The daily average outbound volumes in Shandong and Jiangsu also increased [9]. - **Profit**: As of June 27, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 46 yuan/cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 1, and the spruce import profit was - 77 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week [9]. Log Month - Spread Structure - The report presents the closing prices of different log futures contracts (lg07m.dce, lg09m.dce, lg11m.dce) on the current day, the previous day, and the previous week [11]. Spot Price Seasonality - The report shows the seasonal trends of spot prices for different log specifications at different ports from 2022 - 2025 [12][15][17]

南华贵金属日报: 中东地缘风险缓和 贵金属略显承压 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月24日 【行情回顾】 周一贵金属市场维持震荡，最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3384.4美元/盎司，-0.04%；美白银2507合约 收报于36.05美元/盎司，+0.09%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报781.3元/克，+0.03%；SHFE白银2508合 约收8770元/千克，+0.35%。地缘方面，今日亚盘早盘时段，伊朗高级官员确认，德黑兰已同意由卡塔尔斡 旋的、美国提出的与以色列的停火协议，引发原油暴跌，贵金属亦快速调整。美联储降息预期方面，美联储 理事鲍曼周一晚间暗示或会支持7月降息。鲍曼表示："如果通胀压力得到控制，我将支持在下次会议上尽快 降低政策利率，以使其更接近中性水平并维持健康的劳动力市场。"她认为关税带来的价格上涨将是"小幅 且一次性"的。她亦援引了脆弱性的证据，包括劳动力市场活力减弱、经济增长放缓和就业增长的狭隘集 中，因此认为美联储在未来的决策中应"更加重视就业目标所面临的下行风险"。这是鲍曼自今年春季被特 朗普提名并 ...

镍&不锈钢：产业链整体较为疲软 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 沪镍管理策略 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | | 套保比例 策略等级（满 分5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 管理 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减 值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利 润，对冲现货下跌风险 | 沪镍主力合约 | 卖出 | 60% | 2 | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购 | 公司未来有生产采购需求，担 | 根据生产计划买入沪镍远期合约，盘面 提前采购锁定生产成本 卖出看跌期权 | 远月沪镍合约 场内/场外期权 | 买入 卖出 | 依据采购 计划 依据采购 | 3 1 | | 管理 | 心原料价格上涨 | | | | 计划 | | | | | 买入虚值看涨期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入 | 依据采购 计划 ...