Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The crude oil market continues its short - term rebound, consolidating the sideways oscillation pattern since July. The center of gravity has slightly shifted upwards due to the slow progress of the Russia - Ukraine situation, the peak seasonal demand, and the technical support from the position adjustment during the roll - over period. However, the macro - sentiment is negative, and there is no new driving factor. After late August, demand will decline seasonally, and even if OPEC+ suspends production increase in October, the supply - demand imbalance will put downward pressure on oil prices. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have also decreased. Overall, the recent rebound lacks substantial positive support, with limited upside potential, and the future logic is neutral to bearish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Multi - Short Analysis - **Bullish Driving Factors (Short - term Support)** - Geopolitical situation sentiment repair: Slow progress in the Russia - Ukraine issue weakens the expectation of a "rapid cooling" of the situation, leading to an emotional repair of the geopolitical risk premium in the crude oil market [4]. - Peak demand season not over: The current peak seasonal demand provides fundamental support for the market and delays price decline [4]. - Technical support from roll - over: At the end of August, the roll - over period of near - month contracts of WTI and Brent crude oil, with "near - month short - position reduction + far - month long - position increase", drives the short - term rebound [4]. - OPEC+ short - term policy expectation: The market generally expects OPEC+ to decide to suspend production increase in October at its September 7th meeting, which may boost market sentiment in the short term [4]. - **Bearish Driving Factors (Medium - to Long - term Dominant)** - Approaching seasonal demand decline: After late August, the end of the US summer travel season and refinery autumn maintenance will lead to a decrease in crude oil processing volume and a seasonal decline in gasoline demand until February - March next year, causing the disappearance of demand - side support [5]. - Rising risk of supply - demand imbalance: Even if OPEC+ suspends production increase, the current high production quota, combined with the seasonal demand decline, will likely lead to an oversupply in the fourth - quarter crude oil market [5]. - Negative macro - sentiment: The increase in the VIX and the correction of the US stock market may suppress the demand for crude oil as a risk asset. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in September has dropped to 75%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts by the end of the year has been reduced from 3 to 2, weakening the expectation of loose liquidity [6]. - Failure to reflect fundamental bearishness: The current crude oil price is still dominated by short - term events and has not priced in the fundamental bearishness of the "fourth - quarter oversupply", and downward pressure will be released once the market focuses on fundamentals [6]. 3.2. Market Dynamics - EIA report: As of the week ending August 15, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 1.41% decline, far exceeding the market expectation. US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, and domestic production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a 3.34% increase year - on - year. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [7]. - Israel: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has instructed to start negotiations to release all hostages in Gaza and end the war under acceptable conditions [7]. - Singapore: As of the week ending August 20, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.61 million barrels to 23.035 million barrels, an eight - week low [7]. - Guyana: Guyana's oil production in July remained almost unchanged at 664,000 barrels per day [7]. - India: India will continue to buy Russian oil despite US pressure. The foreign ministers of Russia and India will discuss strengthening strategic partnership in Moscow on August 21 [7]. 3.3. Global Crude Oil Disk Price and Spread Changes The report provides the prices and spreads of various crude oils (Brent, WTI, SC, Dubai, Oman, Murban) on August 22, 21, and 15, 2025, including daily and weekly price changes, as well as changes in spreads such as EFS spread, monthly spreads [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View This week, the Nanhua Composite Index dropped 11.09 points, a decline of -0.44%. The most influential varieties were rebar and soda ash. The Nanhua Industrial Products Index fell 27.09 points, a -0.74% decrease, with soda ash and rebar being the most influential. The Nanhua Metal Index decreased by 101.15 points, a -1.56% decline, and rebar had the greatest influence. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index dropped 4.31 points, a -0.26% fall, with soda ash being the most influential. The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index declined 5.26 points, a -0.47% decrease, and soybean meal had the greatest influence [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Data Overview - **Composite Index (NHCI)**: Closed at 2525.13 this week, down 11.09 points (-0.44%) from last week. The maximum was 2536.21, and the minimum was 2511.88, with a volatility of 24.33 [3]. - **Precious Metals Index (NHPMI)**: Closed at 1250.91, down 2.94 points (-0.23%) from last week. The maximum was 1258.59, and the minimum was 1242.01, with a volatility of 16.58 [3]. - **Industrial Products Index (NHII)**: Closed at 3630.95, down 27.09 points (-0.74%) from last week. The maximum was 3658.04, and the minimum was 3610.11, with a volatility of 47.93 [3]. - **Metal Index (NHMI)**: Closed at 6365.05, down 101.15 points (-1.56%) from last week. The maximum was 6466.21, and the minimum was 6365.05, with a volatility of 101.15 [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI)**: Closed at 1683.37, down 4.31 points (-0.26%) from last week. The maximum was 1687.68, and the minimum was 1667.62, with a volatility of 20.06 [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index (NHNFI)**: Closed at 1691.68, down 22.82 points (-1.33%) from last week. The maximum was 1714.49, and the minimum was 1691.68, with a volatility of 22.82 [3]. - **Black Index (NHFI)**: Closed at 2535.84, down 53.54 points (-2.07%) from last week. The maximum was 2589.38, and the minimum was 2535.45, with a volatility of 53.93 [3]. - **Agricultural Products Index (NHAI)**: Closed at 1107.04, down 5.26 points (-0.47%) from last week. The maximum was 1114.54, and the minimum was 1103.62, with a volatility of 10.92 [3]. 3.2 Nanhua Index Arbitrage Data The report provides data on the ratio of various Nanhua sector indices and the ranking of these ratios in historical periods. For example, the ratio of the Precious Metals Index to the Composite Index changed from 0.495 to 0.494, with a change of -0.001008142 and a ranking of 0.810 [6]. 3.3 Contribution of Each Variety to Index Fluctuations - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: The most influential varieties were soda ash (contribution of -0.21%) and rebar (contribution of -0.2%) [2]. - **Nanhua Metal Index**: Rebar had the greatest contribution of -0.4% [2]. - **Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index**: Soda ash contributed -0.31% [2]. - **Nanhua Agricultural Products Index**: Soybean meal contributed -0.18% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1029 points on August 21, 2025, with a week - on - week increase of 0.98% and a year - on - year increase of 9.11%, but the growth rate narrowed. The significant increase in Middle East crude oil shipments and the obvious recovery of the demand for VLCC tankers supported the continuous rise of the BDTI index. However, the decrease in tanker traffic in major sea areas may have a negative impact on the next period's BDTI index, with the growth rate continuing to narrow or turning from rising to falling. Key events to watch include the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the Jackson Hole Conference [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 BDTI Crude Oil Freight Rate Index Trend - As of August 21, 2025, the BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1029 points, up 0.98% week - on - week and 9.11% year - on - year. From a seasonal perspective, the growth rate of the freight rate continued to narrow [2] 3.2 Tanker Shipping Distance - In the 31st week of 2025 (as of August 8), the shipping distances of VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax tankers all increased week - on - week, with the Suezmax tanker having the largest increase at 33.33%. Compared with the same period last year, the shipping distances of all three types of tankers decreased, and the Aframax tanker had the largest decrease at 12.62% [5][8] - From August 15 - 21, 2025, the total tanker traffic in the Red Sea decreased. The average number of tankers passing through the Red Sea was 792, 23 less than the previous week. In the Aden Gulf, the tanker traffic decreased significantly, with 104 tankers passing through, 41 less than the previous week [7] 3.3 Tanker Capacity - As of August 15, 2025, the number of scrapped tankers remained unchanged week - on - week at 9425, an increase of 81 year - on - year; the number of effective tankers increased by 10 week - on - week to 18320, an increase of 444 year - on - year; the number of delivered tankers decreased by 6 week - on - week to 213, an increase of 93 year - on - year; the number of tanker orders decreased by 1 week - on - week to 1342, an increase of 103 year - on - year; the number of tankers under construction increased by 1 week - on - week to 216, an increase of 75 year - on - year [9] - As of August 16, the tanker capacity at ports for all types of tankers decreased. The number of VLCC tankers at ports decreased by 46 to 2288, Aframax tankers decreased by 98 to 2638, and Suezmax tankers decreased by 86 to 2121 [9] 3.4 Crude Oil Shipment Data Tracking - As of August 15, 2025, the crude oil shipments from the US and Russia decreased week - on - week, while those from Saudi Arabia and the UAE increased. US crude oil shipments decreased by 11.89%, Russian shipments decreased by 10.47%, Saudi Arabian shipments increased by 12.85%, and UAE shipments increased by 2.98% [2][11] - In terms of shipment vessel types: For US crude oil, the demand for VLCC tankers increased by 29.09% week - on - week, while the demand for Aframax and Suezmax tankers decreased by 24.92% and 27.22% respectively. For Russian crude oil, the demand for Aframax and Suezmax tankers decreased by 11.28% and 14.72% respectively. For Saudi Arabian crude oil, the demand for VLCC tankers increased by 17.54% week - on - week, while the demand for Aframax and Suezmax tankers decreased by 10.73% and 29.31% respectively. For UAE crude oil, the demand for VLCC and Suezmax tankers increased by 0.36% and 12.66% respectively, while the demand for Aframax tankers decreased by 63.84% [11][12] 3.5 Crude Oil Arrival - During the week, the crude oil arrivals in China and the Netherlands increased week - on - week and were higher than the same period last year, while India's crude oil arrivals were lower than the historical average and similar to last year [29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) contracts first fluctuated downward and then returned to a volatile trend. As of the close, the prices of all EC contracts declined. The opening decline of the futures price was likely affected by the current cabin quotes on the European line. Specifically, Evergreen's opening quotes for the European line in early September were lower than the previous values. Except for ONE, the quotes of major shipping companies for the European line in early September had generally dropped below the August quotes, and the average price for large containers was below $2500. Looking ahead, it is relatively likely that EC will continue to fluctuate with a downward bias or return to a volatile trend [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For cabin management, if one has already obtained cabins but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about a decline in freight rates, to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's cabin situation to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling recommendation and an entry range of 1450 - 1550 [1]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and one hopes to book cabins based on order situations, to prevent an increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, one can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking costs in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying recommendation and an entry range of 1200 - 1300 [1]. EC Position Changes - In the EC2510 contract, long positions increased by 1262 lots to 28530 lots, short positions increased by 318 lots to 31625 lots, and the trading volume increased by 9676 lots to 43824 lots (bilateral) [1]. EC Basis Daily Changes (on August 22, 2025) - The basis for EC2508 was 55.17 points, with a daily decline of 2.00 points and a weekly decline of 96.41 points [3]. - The basis for EC2510 was 855.17 points, with a daily increase of 30.00 points and a weekly decline of 20.81 points [3]. - The basis for EC2512 was 458.77 points, with a daily increase of 54.50 points and a weekly decline of 53.41 points [3]. - The basis for EC2602 was 667.17 points, with a daily increase of 19.00 points and a weekly decline of 46.91 points [3]. - The basis for EC2604 was 890.67 points, with a daily increase of 24.80 points and a weekly decline of 9.81 points [3]. EC Prices and Spreads (on August 22, 2025) - The closing price of EC2508 was 2125.0 points, with a daily increase of 0.09% and a weekly increase of 1.97% [5]. - The closing price of EC2510 was 1325.0 points, with a daily decline of 2.21% and a weekly decline of 2.54% [5]. - The closing price of EC2512 was 1721.4 points, with a daily decline of 3.07% and a weekly decline of 0.11% [5]. - The closing price of EC2602 was 1513.0 points, with a daily decline of 1.24% and a weekly decline of 0.55% [5]. - The closing price of EC2604 was 1289.5 points, with a daily decline of 2.27% and a weekly decline of 3.41% [5]. - The closing price of EC2606 was 1470.1 points, with a daily decline of 0.67% and a weekly decline of 1.67% [5]. Current Cabin Quotes for Container Shipping - On September 4, for Maersk's sailings from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1290, an increase of $5 compared to the previous value, and the total quote for 40GP was $2160, an increase of $10 compared to the previous value [7]. - In early September, for Evergreen's sailings from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1580, a decrease of $225 compared to the previous week, and the total quote for 40GP was $1983, a decrease of $778 compared to the previous week [7]. Global Freight Rate Indexes - The SCFIS for the European route was 2180.17 points, a decrease of 55.31 points (-2.47%) compared to the previous value [8]. - The SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, an increase of 24.15 points (2.23%) compared to the previous value [8]. - The SCFI for the European route was $1820 per TEU, a decrease of $141 (-7.19%) compared to the previous value [8]. - The SCFI for the US - West route was $1759 per FEU, a decrease of $64 (-3.51%) compared to the previous value [8]. - The XSI for the European line was $2989 per FEU, a decrease of $31 (-1.03%) compared to the previous value [8]. - The XSI for the US - West line was $1826 per FEU, a decrease of $7 (-0.4%) compared to the previous value [8]. - The FBX comprehensive freight rate index was $1965 per FEU, an increase of $1 (0.05%) compared to the previous value [8]. Global Major Port Waiting Times (on August 21, 2025) - The waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.608 days, an increase of 0.213 days compared to the previous day and a decrease of 0.126 days compared to the same period last year [13]. - The waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.639 days, a decrease of 0.184 days compared to the previous day and an increase of 0.201 days compared to the same period last year [13]. - The waiting time at Yantian Port was 1.161 days, an increase of 0.281 days compared to the previous day and an increase of 0.684 days compared to the same period last year [13]. - The waiting time at Singapore Port was 1.627 days, an increase of 1.064 days compared to the previous day and an increase of 1.061 days compared to the same period last year [13]. - The waiting time at Jakarta Port was 1.822 days, an increase of 0.294 days compared to the previous day and an increase of 0.842 days compared to the same period last year [13]. - The waiting time at Long Beach Port was 2.648 days, an increase of 0.119 days compared to the previous day and an increase of 0.845 days compared to the same period last year [13]. - The waiting time at Savannah Port was 1.233 days, a decrease of 0.295 days compared to the previous day and a decrease of 0.99 days compared to the same period last year [13]. Ship Speeds and the Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports (on August 21, 2025) - The average speed of container ships with a capacity of over 8000 was 15.764 knots, a decrease of 0.082 knots compared to the previous day and a decrease of 0.192 knots compared to the same period last year [22]. - The average speed of container ships with a capacity of over 3000 was 14.870 knots, a decrease of 0.032 knots compared to the previous day and a decrease of 0.387 knots compared to the same period last year [22]. - The average speed of container ships with a capacity of over 1000 was 13.318 knots, a decrease of 0.026 knots compared to the previous day and a decrease of 0.164 knots compared to the same period last year [22]. - The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages was 12, the same as the previous day and an increase of 4 compared to the same period last year [22].

金融期货早评 宏观：关注杰克逊霍尔年会 【市场资讯】1）鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔年会讲话前，美联储明年票委称 9 月可能不会降息， 今年票委对行动犹豫，此后两年期美债收益率接近三周高位；美联储主席候选人布拉德建 议激进：今年降息 100 基点，9 月首次行动。2）美国司法部施压开除美联储理事库克，特 朗普倾向她自动请辞。3）美国 8 月制造业 PMI 初值 53.3，意外创三年多新高，通胀压力 加剧；美国劳动力市场降温愈发明显，上周首次申请失业救济人数意外飙升 1.1 万，续请 人数升至四年高位。4）欧元区商业活动创 15 个月新高，制造业 PMI 冲上 50、结束三年收 缩，德国制造业强势复苏。5）美欧就贸易协定框架达成一致，美国重申对欧盟 15%关税上 限，称对欧盟汽车的关税可能几周内降低。 波动率较低，汇率的显著波动预计将在 9、10 月提升。在高度不确定的外部环境，叠加内 部弱复苏的背景下，美元兑人民币即期汇率短期内大概率在 7.15-7.23 运行。进一步来看， 若杰克逊霍尔会议无更多预期外的信息指引，7.20 下方大概率仍将是主要运行区间。 【风险提示】海外货币政策调整超预期、地缘政治冲突超预期、特朗普非 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but since late April, they have been in a continuous oscillation, lacking further inflation or interest - rate cut trading impetus. For London gold, short - term resistance is at 3350, and if broken, it may test 3375 and then the 3400 area, with support at 3330 and strong support at 3300 - 3310. For London silver, it stopped falling and rebounded around 37, short - term resistance is at the 38.2 area, and if broken, it may retest 38.7, with support at 37. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On Thursday, the precious metals market saw gold oscillate and silver rise slightly. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields increased, exerting pressure. The US stock market oscillated and adjusted, crude oil rose, Bitcoin fell, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metal Index oscillated. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3383.5 per ounce, down 0.15%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $38.1 per ounce, up 0.87%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was 775.12 yuan per gram, up 0.3%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was 9162 yuan per kilogram, up 0.63% [2]. 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations continued to cool. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 25%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 75%. For October, the probability of unchanged rates is 13.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 51.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 35.3%. For December, the probability of unchanged rates is 3.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 24.4%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 46.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 25%. In terms of long - term funds, SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 1.44 tons to 956.77 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 28.24 tons to 15277.52 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 25.1 tons to 1115.1 tons, and as of the week ending August 15, SGX silver inventory decreased by 17.7 tons to 1286.8 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week's data is scarce, and there is no important data release on Friday. The event focus is on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. At 22:00 on Friday, Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech at the meeting [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metals Price Table**: SHFE gold main - continuous contract was 775.12 yuan per gram, up 0.32%; SGX gold TD was 771.66 yuan per gram, up 0.24%; CME gold main contract was $3383.5 per ounce, down 0.26%; SHFE silver main - continuous contract was 9162 yuan per kilogram, up 1.33%; SGX silver TD was 9144 yuan per kilogram, up 1.35%; CME silver main contract was $38.1 per ounce, up 0.54% [6]. - **Inventory and Position Table**: SHFE gold inventory was 36642 kilograms, up 0.16%; CME gold inventory was 1199.7791 tons, up 0.03%; SHFE gold position was 183215 lots, down 4.31%; SPDR gold position was 956.77 tons, down 0.15%; SHFE silver inventory was 1115.055 tons, down 2.21%; CME silver inventory was 15816.1046 tons, unchanged; SGX silver inventory was 1286.835 tons, down 1.35%; SHFE silver position was 307098 lots, down 3.63%; SLV silver position was 15277.5184 tons, down 0.18% [13][15]. 3.5 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 98.6409, up 0.42%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1853, up 0.06%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44785.5 points, down 0.34%; WTI crude oil spot was $63.52 per barrel, up 1.29%; LmeS copper 03 was $9734.5 per ton, up 0.14%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.33%, up 0.93%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was 1.94%, unchanged; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread was 0.54%, down 1.82% [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Short - term market divergence is large. Today's stock market trend changed several times. Although the trading volume did not change significantly, the optimistic momentum of the stock market has clearly declined, and funds have shifted from small - cap stocks to large - cap stocks. The dividend index showed an overall oscillating and strengthening trend. In the context of significantly weakened optimism compared to the previous period, the market is expected to continue to oscillate and requires incremental information for stimulation. Without the drive of trading volume, the attractiveness of the structural market will also decline. Attention should be paid to the information released at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index showed an oscillating trend, with large - cap and small - cap stocks performing differently. The large - cap index rose, while the small - and medium - cap index declined. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 15.823 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IH rose with shrinking volume, IC fell with increasing volume, and IM fell with shrinking volume [4]. Important Information - Alibaba announced on August 21 that it plans to spin off Zebra Network Technology Co., Ltd. and list it independently on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5]. Strategy Recommendation - Insurance strategy: Hold spot and buy put options [7]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.66 | 0.84 | - 0.06 | - 0.43 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 12.1134 | 5.9612 | 12.1463 | 29.1091 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 0.9534 | - 0.3502 | 0.2219 | - 0.7631 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.8227 | 10.336 | 22.9052 | 39.0348 | | Open interest change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 0.8791 | - 0.3273 | 0.0694 | - 1.0277 | [7] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.13 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | - 0.06 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.72 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 242.4057 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (billion yuan) | 15.823 | [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the bond market has calmed down, and attention should be paid to the bottom - building process. If the A - share market's consolidation lasts for several days, it will be beneficial for the bond market to bottom out. Investors are advised not to short. Cautious investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors aiming to buy at the bottom can enter the market with small positions and widen the buying intervals. Focus on the support level of the 10 - year Treasury bond at around 1.8% [1][3]. 3) Summary by Related Content a. Market Performance - On Thursday, medium - and long - term Treasury bond futures opened lower and then fluctuated upwards, with all varieties closing higher. The yields of spot bonds declined significantly in the afternoon. The net investment in the 7 - day reverse repurchase in the open market was 124.3 billion yuan. The capital situation was okay, with DR001 around 1.46% [1]. - The trading data of Treasury bond futures on August 21, 2025, showed that TS2509 rose by 0.002, TF2509 fell by - 0.01, T2509 rose by 0.065, and TL2509 fell by - 0.12. The positions of TS, TF, and T contracts decreased, while the position of the TL contract increased. There were also changes in the basis and trading volume of each contract [4]. b. Intraday News - The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed internal differences. Members were worried about tariffs, inflation, and the labor market, and most people believed that inflation was a higher risk than employment. - The central bank added 100 billion yuan in re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses to support flood prevention and disaster relief and post - disaster reconstruction [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: August 21, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team - Analyst: Xiao Yufei [1][2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Copper prices declined slightly on Wednesday, indicating that downstream demand cannot absorb high prices in the short term. In the short run, copper prices are likely to continue to fluctuate. - Downstream terminals are hesitant about the negative demand feedback in August caused by US tariffs and believe that current prices have largely fulfilled previous expectations, but it takes time to digest price increases. - Attention should be paid to Powell's speech at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. In the short term, the US dollar index has strong support below, which exerts pressure on the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals [3] Key Points from Different Sections Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,640 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai copper futures contract at a hedging ratio of 75% around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell call options (CU2510C82000) at a hedging ratio of 25% when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low - level raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai copper futures contract at a hedging ratio of 75% around 77,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - The US reaches an agreement on tariff policies with other countries - Increased interest - rate cut expectations lead to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals - The lower support level is raised [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are inconsistent - Global demand decreases due to tariff policies - Adjustments to US copper tariff policies result in an extremely high COMEX inventory [4][5] Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 78,640 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 78,630 | - 240 | - 0.3% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 78,610 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,721 | 36.5 | 0.38% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.2 | - 0.01 | - 0.12% | [4] Copper Spot Market Data | Spot Market | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 78,770 | - 330 | - 0.42% | | Shanghai Material Trade | yuan/ton | 78,685 | - 365 | - 0.46% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve | yuan/ton | 78,630 | - 340 | - 0.43% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 78,850 | - 370 | - 0.47% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 190 | - 5 | - 2.56% | | Shanghai Material Trade Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 115 | - 15 | - 11.54% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 140 | - 15 | - 9.68% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 175 | - 10 | - 5.41% | [11] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread | Spread Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | 944.04 | - 105.85 | - 10.08% | | Reasonable Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | 1,487.1 | - 4.25 | - 0.28% | | Price Advantage (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | - 543.06 | - 101.6 | 23.01% | | Current Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 5,610 | - 125 | - 2.18% | | Reasonable Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 6,162.47 | - 29.5 | - 0.48% | | Price Advantage (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | - 552.47 | - 95.5 | 20.9% | [16] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts - Total SHFE copper warehouse receipts: 25,223 tons, a daily decrease of 275 tons (- 1.08%) - Total international copper warehouse receipts: 6,724 tons, a daily decrease of 2,056 tons (- 23.42%) [20] LME Copper Inventory - Total LME copper inventory: 156,350 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons (0.77%) - LME copper registered warehouse receipts: 145,600 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons (1.18%) - LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts: 10,750 tons, a decrease of 500 tons (- 4.44%) [22] COMEX Copper Inventory - Total COMEX copper inventory: 270,536 tons, a weekly increase of 3,741 tons (1.4%) - COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts: 136,699 tons, a weekly decrease of 9,299 tons (- 0.07%) - COMEX copper cancelled warehouse receipts: 133,837 tons, a weekly increase of 693 tons (0.52%) [23] Copper Import Profit and Processing | Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit/Loss | yuan/ton | 354.75 | 22.36 | 6.73% | | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 38.2 | - 0.53 | 1.41% | [24]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Nickel & Stainless Steel: Declined Affected by the Market, August 20th Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Research team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Price Range and Volatility - Shanghai Nickel price range prediction: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling) 15.17%, historical percentile 3.2% [2] - Stainless steel price range prediction: 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling) 9.27%, historical percentile 1.8% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory management**: When product sales price drops and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai Nickel futures according to inventory level to lock in profit and hedge spot price decline risk, sell 60% of NI main contract; sell 50% of call options [2] - **Procurement management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about raw material price increase, buy Shanghai Nickel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production cost, buy based on procurement plan; sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options [2] Stainless steel - **Inventory management**: When product sales price drops and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures according to inventory level to lock in profit and hedge spot price decline risk, sell 60% of SS main contract; sell 50% of call options [3] - **Procurement management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about raw material price increase, buy stainless steel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production cost, buy based on procurement plan; sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options [3] Group 4: Core Contradiction - Shanghai Nickel's intraday trend was oscillating weakly, mainly affected by the market. After the digestion of positive macro - level sentiment, it entered a correction phase, with no obvious change in fundamentals. Indonesia's second - phase benchmark price in August was slightly adjusted downward. Nickel ore was still in the peak shipping season with weakening support. Nickel iron remained firm, with some low - grade specifications in short supply. The new energy link salt plants were relatively strong, with a tight MHP market and some traders raising coefficients due to shortages. Stainless steel also showed a weak trend, with spot prices adjusted downward and a strong wait - and - see sentiment in spot trading [4] Group 5: Market Factors Positive factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula, adding elements like iron and cobalt; shorten the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; the construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase stainless steel demand [6] Negative factors - Stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season, with slow inventory reduction; high pure nickel inventory; seasonal increase in nickel ore inventory with weakening bottom support; Sino - US tariff disturbances; South Korea plans to impose anti - dumping duties on China's hot - rolled products [6] Group 6: Market Data Nickel - **Futures prices**: Shanghai Nickel main continuous contract 119,930 yuan/ton (unchanged); Shanghai Nickel continuous - one contract 120,060 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan (- 0.32%); Shanghai Nickel continuous - two contract 120,300 yuan/ton, down 420 yuan (- 0.35%); Shanghai Nickel continuous - three contract 120,510 yuan/ton, down 490 yuan (- 0.35%); LME Nickel 3M 15,045 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars (- 0.40%) [6] - **Trading volume**: 63,676 lots (unchanged) [6] - **Open interest**: 50,856 lots (unchanged) [6] - **Warehouse receipts**: 22,559 tons, down 282 tons (- 1.23%) [6] - **Basis of main contract**: - 1,300 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan (26.8%) [6] Stainless steel - **Futures prices**: Stainless steel main continuous contract 12,820 yuan/ton (unchanged); stainless steel continuous - one contract 12,820 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan (- 0.50%); stainless steel continuous - two contract 12,890 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan (- 0.50%); stainless steel continuous - three contract 12,925 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan (- 0.54%) [7] - **Trading volume**: 149,736 lots (unchanged) [7] - **Open interest**: 135,764 lots (unchanged) [7] - **Warehouse receipts**: 119,769 tons, down 2,334 tons (- 1.91%) [7] - **Basis of main contract**: 650 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan (11.11%) [7] Group 7: Industry Inventory - Domestic social nickel inventory: 41,891 tons, up 1,319 tons [8] - LME nickel inventory: 209,346 tons, up 18 tons [8] - Stainless steel social inventory: 933.6 tons, down 20.4 tons [8] - Nickel pig iron inventory: 33,111 tons, down 304 tons [8]