Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the precious metal price, in the short term, the market has entered an adjustment phase. There is expected to be no strong driving force in November. Attention should be paid to mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and existing long - position bottom positions should be held cautiously. London gold has resistance at 4050 - 4100, support at 3900, and strong support in the 3800 - 3850 area; silver has resistance at 49.5 - 50, support at 47.5, and strong support at 45.5 [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - On Tuesday, precious metal prices declined. The US dollar index rose, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell, the US stock market, Bitcoin, crude oil, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index all dropped. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3941.3 per ounce, down 1.81%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $46.895 per ounce, down 2.4%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 908.92 yuan per gram, down 1.14%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11238 yuan per kilogram, down 1.33% [2] 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations rebounded slightly. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 29.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 70.1%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 3.15 tons to 1038.63 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 22.2 tons to 15167.6 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 6.7 tons to 665.6 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 145.4 tons to 905.2 tons as of the week ending October 24 [3] 3.3 This Week's Focus - Data: Focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday night. There will also be ISM manufacturing and services PMI, ADP small non - farm data during the week. Also, pay attention to whether the US government shutdown will delay data releases. Events: The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report on Thursday at 08:00. On Friday, multiple FOMC members will give speeches at different times [4] 3.4 Price and Spread Data - The report provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various gold and silver contracts such as SHFE gold and silver futures, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver futures, as well as the COMEX gold - silver ratio [5] 3.5 Inventory and Position Data - It shows the latest inventory and position data of SHFE and CME gold and silver, including SHFE gold inventory (87816 kg), CME gold inventory (1178.2529 tons), SHFE gold position (144602 lots), etc. [13][14] 3.6 Other Asset Data - Presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of other assets such as the US dollar index, US stocks, crude oil, LME copper, and US Treasury yields [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to show an "oscillating and strengthening" trend within the range of 74,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton in the next month. If the lithium ore gap cannot be replenished, the price may break through 85,000 yuan/ton [5]. - On the lithium ore side, the expected increase in the number of lithium concentrates arriving at ports this month can ease the tight situation. The release of salt - lake production capacity will continuously supplement the supply of the lithium salt market, and the "resumption speed of Jianxiaowo" is a key variable. If its resumption progress exceeds market expectations, it will expand the lithium salt supply scale and potentially suppress prices. The demand side is currently strong, with the prices of core battery materials rising, and the downstream production scheduling in November remains highly prosperous, which will maintain strong demand for lithium salts and intensify the supply - demand mismatch of lithium ore. National industrial policies are expected to support the demand for lithium salts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 85,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 29.4% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 45.1% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 78,560 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0, a daily环比 of 0.00%, a weekly change of - 4,340 yuan/ton, and a weekly环比 of - 5.24%. Other contract data such as trading volume, open interest, and spreads between different contracts are also provided [8]. - **Options and Other Data**: Information on estimated volume totals, option contract data for different months (including opening, high, low, last, change, settle, estimated volume, and prior - day open interest) are presented [22][23]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The daily average prices of different types of lithium ores (lithium mica, lithium spodumene, etc.) with different Li₂O contents are given, along with their daily and weekly changes. The exchange rate of the US dollar to the RMB is also provided [27]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices**: The daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and their daily and weekly changes are presented. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea) is also included [30]. - **Price Spreads**: Spreads such as the difference between electric - carbon and industrial - carbon, electric - carbon and electric - hydrogen, and the difference between the CIF price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in Japan and South Korea and the domestic price are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes [37]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The daily prices of downstream products such as phosphoric (manganese) iron lithium, ternary materials, and electrolytes, and their changes are presented [38][39]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Data**: The main - continuous basis of lithium carbonate and the basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands are provided [41][43]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The seasonal data and the quantity data of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts (including the total and for different warehouses) are presented, along with their daily changes [44][46]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The production profit of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate), import profit, and theoretical delivery profit are presented, with their historical trends shown [47][48][49]. 3.5 Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with battery material production plans, different hedging strategies are recommended according to whether the product price is correlated with the raw material price. The hedging tools include futures and on - and off - exchange options, with different hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [2]. - **Sales Management**: Enterprises with lithium carbonate production plans can use futures and options to hedge against the risk of price decline during sales. Different hedging ratios are recommended based on different situations [2]. - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventories can use futures and options to hedge against the risk of inventory depreciation, with recommended hedging ratios and price levels [2].

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: November 05, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - After entering November, the selling pressure of moist corn in domestic corn - producing areas began to weaken. In North China, the selling pressure was released after the "fire - sale" of moist corn. In Northeast China, after the peak of centralized harvest and listing, the selling pressure eased with the drop in temperature. The overall grass - roots in the producing areas were more reluctant to sell, and the purchasing end raised prices to increase purchases, leading to a short - term rebound in corn prices. After the first peak of selling pressure of new grain listing, the resilience of corn prices has strengthened, and the subsequent price pressure has eased as it turns into a phased release of selling pressure. On Tuesday, the upward trend of the corn futures market paused. The main 01 contract closed at 2135 yuan, with significantly reduced trading volume, slightly increased open interest, and the registered warehouse receipts increased to 66,351 lots. Starch futures followed corn and closed lower. The main 01 contract closed at 2444 yuan, with decreased trading volume and slightly reduced open interest. On Tuesday, CBOT corn futures closed lower following the decline of soybeans. StoneX raised its forecast of US corn yield per acre by 10 bushels to 186.0 bushels per acre, which weighed on prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Core Contradictions - The selling pressure of moist corn in domestic corn - producing areas has weakened, and the grass - roots are reluctant to sell. The purchasing end raises prices, leading to a short - term rebound in corn prices. After the first peak of selling pressure of new grain listing, the price pressure eases. The corn and starch futures markets closed lower on Tuesday, and CBOT corn futures also declined [2]. Bullish Factors - The selling pressure has become more dispersed, and the urgency to sell grain has decreased, alleviating price pressure. The state - reserve purchase in Northeast China has significantly supported prices, limiting price declines. The unconfirmed news of wheat auctions in November has increased the bullish sentiment in the market [5]. Bearish Factors - The weak operation of hog prices and the industry's capacity adjustment may affect the long - term feed demand for corn. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current entry of second - fattening pigs still support the feed demand at a relatively good level. From mid - to early November, the late - harvested corn will still be harvested and listed, and the selling pressure needs to be released in a phased and concentrated manner, which restricts the continuous upward momentum of prices. Chinese importers have inquired about wheat cargoes and plan to load them from the end of this year to February next year. The resumption of grain imports will increase the pressure on domestic corn, and the purchase volume should be monitored [3]. Price Range Forecast | Commodity | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility | Volatility Percentile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn | 2050 - 2200 | 9.43% | 54.6% | | Starch | 2350 - 2550 | 10.64% | 42.31% | [3] Spot Price and Main - Contract Basis | Corn | Price & Basis | Change | Corn Starch | Price & Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jinzhou Port | 2165 | 0 | Shandong | 2750 | 0 | | Shekou Port | 2250 | 0 | Jilin | 2550 | 0 | | Harbin | 2010 | 0 | Heilongjiang | 2450 | 0 | | Jinzhou Port Main - Contract Basis | 30 | 21 | Shandong Main - Contract Basis | 306 | 9 | [3] Futures Market Prices - Specific price data for different contracts of corn and corn starch on November 03 and 04, 2025, are provided, including prices, changes, and change rates. For example, the corn 11 contract closed at 2129 yuan on November 03 and 2120 yuan on November 04, with a change of - 9 yuan and a change rate of - 0.42% [6]. U.S. Corn Price and Import Profit | | Price | Daily Change | Increase | Import Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Corn Main - Contract | 430.75 | - 4 | - 0.92% | | | COBT Soybean Main - Contract | 1120.25 | - 14.25 | - 1.26% | | | CBOT Wheat Main - Contract | 550 | 5.25 | 0.96% | | | U.S. Gulf Port CIF Duty - Paid Price | 2151.26 | 0.92 | 0.04% | 98.74 | | U.S. West Coast CIF Duty - Paid Price | 2035.3 | 0.87 | 0.04% | 214.7 | [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy interventions have affected the long - term supply of live pigs. Long - term strategic outlook can be bullish, but short - to medium - term trends are still based on fundamentals. The policy bottom has emerged, but the market bottom may take a production cycle to form. Currently, the market is in a state of oversupply, and short - term pig prices have dropped rapidly due to concentrated slaughtering. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will improve, and there may be a structural shortage of large pigs, supporting prices during the peak season [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Price Range Forecast - The predicted price range for the main contract is 11,000 - 13,500. The current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 24.24%, and the current volatility's historical percentile (3 - year) is 75.74% [2] 3.2 Pig Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high product inventory and fear of inventory impairment risk, strategies include short - selling live pig futures to lock in profits according to the inventory, selling call options when there is no suitable price on the futures market, and buying out - of - the - money put options to not miss potential price increases. Recommended ratios for short - selling futures and selling call options are both 10% [2] - **Procurement Management**: For future procurement plans and fear of raw material price increases, strategies are to buy live pig forward contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in costs, sell put options when there is no suitable price on the futures market, and buy out - of - the - money call options when not wanting to lock in profits in advance and expecting lower costs [2] 3.3 Core Contradictions - Policy interventions may impact long - term supply. The policy bottom has appeared, but the market bottom needs time. The current fundamental situation is oversupply, and short - term price drops are due to concentrated slaughtering. Recently, the number of pigs sold by large farms and second - fattening groups has decreased, and some second - fattening has started restocking. With the peak season, demand will improve, and there may be a shortage of large pigs [3] 3.4利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors, translated from Chinese) - Macro sentiment has improved, boosting market confidence. The price difference between standard and fat pigs is at a relatively high level in the same period. There is a medium - to long - term expectation of capacity reduction in the policy. The current pig price is low, fattening costs are down, and second - fattening speculators are entering the market. Large farms are selling fewer pigs [6] 3.5利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors, translated from Chinese) - The inventory of breeding sows is still relatively high. The inventory of large - scale enterprises is at a three - year high. Terminal consumption downstream is weak. The occupancy rate of second - fattening pens has returned to a high level [6][7] 3.6 Pig Spot Prices - The national average pig spot price is 11.78 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan or 1.26%. Prices in Henan, Hunan, Liaoning, Sichuan, and Guangdong also show declines [9] 3.7 Pig Futures Prices - The closing prices of pig futures contracts 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, and 11 are 11,685, 11,360, 11,860, 12,465, 13,255, and 11,550 yuan/ton respectively, with no change on the day [10] 3.8 Pig Price Spreads and Basis - Spreads and basis such as LH01 - 03, LH03 - 05, etc., show different degrees of change, with LH01 - 03 down 22.62%, LH03 - 05 up 3.09%, etc [16]

Report Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention the industry investment ratings. Core Views - The "15th Five-Year Plan" draft suggests focusing on key areas for future investment. The recent Sino-US trade talks have reached a phased consensus, which will reduce the impact of tariff policies on the market and increase market risk appetite [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to trade between 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger trend. Enterprises are advised to manage exchange rate risks [4]. - The stock index is expected to continue its short - term correction, especially for small and medium - cap stocks, but there is support below [6]. - Treasury bonds are recommended to be bought on dips [7]. - The container shipping futures for European routes are expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. Traders are advised to be cautious [12]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, and mid - term buying opportunities on dips can be considered [17]. - Copper prices may test the support around 85000; downstream enterprises can use a combination strategy to reduce procurement costs [19]. - Aluminum is expected to be in a high - level shock; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be in a high - level shock [20]. - Zinc is expected to be in a high - level shock [21]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak position with significant downward pressure, and macro factors need to be closely monitored [22]. - Tin is expected to be in a high - level shock, and long - term bullish sentiment remains [23]. - Carbonate lithium presents an opportunity for inventory replenishment [25]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in an oscillatory adjustment phase [27]. - Lead is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term due to supply shortages [28]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils may test the previous low support [29]. - Iron ore prices have limited upside potential, and short - selling opportunities after valuation repair can be considered [31]. - Coking coal and coke have seen the third round of price increases. They are suitable for long - positions in the black market [33]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and weak demand [34]. - Crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 65 dollars this week [37]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [39]. - PTA - PX is expected to be relatively strong and oscillate with the cost side [43]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate widely, and short - selling strategies can be considered [47]. - Methanol 01 may continue to decline [49]. - PP is expected to remain weak due to the supply - demand imbalance [51]. - PE is expected to be weak and oscillate due to high supply and limited demand [54]. - Pure benzene and styrene are likely to be weak and lack upward drivers [57]. - Fuel oil is expected to continue its downward trend [58]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil's valuation has increased [59]. - Asphalt is expected to continue its downward trend, and short - term waiting or short - selling can be considered [62]. - Rubber and 20 - numbered rubber are expected to continue their weak trend and search for a bottom [67]. - Urea is expected to be in a weak and oscillatory pattern [69]. - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, attention should be paid to the realization of supply expectations [70]. - Pulp and offset paper are expected to be relatively oscillatory in the short term [74]. - Logs are recommended to be short - sold, and attention should be paid to the 01 - 03 reverse spread opportunity [77]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: Focus on US employment data. The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft provides investment directions. The Sino - US trade talks have reached a phased consensus, but long - term trade frictions still need attention. The US government shutdown and the Fed's interest rate cut are also key factors [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The USD/CNY spot rate is expected to trade between 7.09 - 7.14 this week. Enterprises are advised to manage exchange rate risks [4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to continue its short - term correction, especially for small and medium - cap stocks, but there is support below [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds are recommended to be bought on dips. The central bank's bond - buying in October was lower than expected [7]. - **Container Shipping for European Routes**: The futures are expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. Traders are advised to be cautious [12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase. Mid - term buying opportunities on dips can be considered [17]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may test the support around 85000. Downstream enterprises can use a combination strategy to reduce procurement costs [19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be in a high - level shock; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be in a high - level shock [20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to be in a high - level shock [21]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are in a weak position with significant downward pressure. Macro factors need to be closely monitored [22]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to be in a high - level shock, and long - term bullish sentiment remains [23]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It presents an opportunity for inventory replenishment [25]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are in an oscillatory adjustment phase [27]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term due to supply shortages [28]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coils**: They may test the previous low support. The market is affected by production restrictions, raw material prices, and macro factors [29]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices have limited upside potential. Short - selling opportunities after valuation repair can be considered [31]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The third round of price increases has been implemented. They are suitable for long - positions in the black market [33]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and weak demand [34]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 65 dollars this week [37]. - **LPG**: LPG is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [39]. - **PTA - PX**: They are expected to be relatively strong and oscillate with the cost side [43]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It is expected to oscillate widely, and short - selling strategies can be considered [47]. - **Methanol**: Methanol 01 may continue to decline [49]. - **PP**: PP is expected to remain weak due to the supply - demand imbalance [51]. - **PE**: PE is expected to be weak and oscillate due to high supply and limited demand [54]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: They are likely to be weak and lack upward drivers [57]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is expected to continue its downward trend [58]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its valuation has increased [59]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to continue its downward trend. Short - term waiting or short - selling can be considered [62]. - **Rubber & 20 - numbered Rubber**: They are expected to continue their weak trend and search for a bottom [67]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to be in a weak and oscillatory pattern [69]. - **Glass, Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to the realization of supply expectations [70]. - **Pulp & Offset Paper**: They are expected to be relatively oscillatory in the short term [74]. - **Logs**: Logs are recommended to be short - sold, and attention should be paid to the 01 - 03 reverse spread opportunity [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil and fat market, with the market trending weakly. It awaits the final US energy policy in November and further news on Indonesia's B50 plan. The strategy is mainly to wait and see, and there may be a bottom - fishing opportunity for palm oil after it stabilizes. Also, the spreads between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean oil and palm oil are expected to widen [2][3]. - The oil and fat market shows short - term weak adjustment and medium - term wide - range fluctuations. The price ranges for P2601, Y2601, and OI are [8350 - 9700], [8000 - 8500], and [9300 - 10300] respectively. Unilateral trading can stay on the sidelines, while arbitrage can focus on the widening spreads of rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There are many negative factors in the oil and fat market. Malaysia's palm oil production increased in October with limited export boost, increasing inventory pressure. Indonesia's B50 plan is uncertain, affecting market sentiment, but the transfer of plantation ownership may limit production, and the B40 plan supports the price floor. The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and the progress of Sino - US trade talks is optimistic for soybean oil, while Sino - Canadian relations are uncertain, making rapeseed oil resistant to decline. Domestically, the overall supply of the three major oils is sufficient, with short - term pressure, and there are short - term strength - weakness relationships within the sector [2]. - In the short - term, the domestic oil and fat inventory is high, and demand is weak. Downstream consumption is mainly for rigid needs, with limited expansion in the fourth - quarter peak season. In the long - term, the market will focus on the US biofuel obligation in November, the supply - demand balance of palm oil in producing areas, the implementation of Indonesia's B50 plan, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations [5][6][14]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Short - term weak adjustment, medium - term wide - range fluctuations. The price ranges for P2601, Y2601, and OI are [8350 - 9700], [8000 - 8500], and [9300 - 10300] respectively. Unilateral trading can stay on the sidelines, while arbitrage can focus on the widening spreads of rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [20]. - **Base - Spread, Month - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: The current base - spread is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. For the month - spread, considering the Southeast Asian Ramadan and Indonesia's B50 plan in the first quarter of next year, P1 - 5 can be considered for reverse arbitrage. The spreads of rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils are expected to widen [21][22]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Traders with high oil and fat inventory can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits. Refineries with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive soybean imports can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits [25]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices, price changes, and spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in the spot and futures markets, as well as the price range forecasts and volatility data of the three oils [23][26][27][28]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31 increased by 26.54% compared to the same period last month. Brazil's soybean sowing rate as of November 1 was 47.1% [30]. - **Negative Information**: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October reached a two - year high, with production at a seven - year high. India's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 16% year - on - year [31]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Transactions of palm oil and soybean oil declined, and rapeseed oil had almost no transactions [32]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, MPOB data, progress of the US small refinery exemption redistribution decision, progress of Sino - Canadian trade negotiations, US government information, and USDA data [35]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The oil and fat market continued to weaken this week due to more negative information. Although the market is bearish, the downward space is limited. The positions of key profit - making seats in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are cautious. The basis structure is weak, and the Back structure has become shallower. The soybean - palm spread strengthened, the rapeseed - soybean spread weakened slightly, and the rapeseed - palm spread changed little [35][36][66]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign market was weak first and then strong. The palm oil - producing areas had many negative factors, but Sino - US trade talks were optimistic for soybean oil, and Sino - Canadian relations made rapeseed oil relatively strong [69]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The POGO and BOHO spreads decreased this week. The cost of bio - fuel production decreased slightly, and the cost of US soybean oil for biodiesel production remained low [72]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. The cost price has decreased slightly, and the profit improved briefly but then weakened again [74]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction in Producing Areas - Malaysia's palm oil production in September did not decline as expected, and the inventory exceeded expectations. In October, production increased month - on - month, breaking the expectation of an early entry into the production - reduction season. However, there is a strong expectation of La Nina in the producing areas, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction progress [76]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Palm oil: The procurement intention of traders is low, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively limited. Soybean oil: The supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but the pressure may weaken from December. Rapeseed oil: The inventory is high, but it will gradually decrease. If Sino - Canadian relations do not improve, there may be a supply shortage from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [79]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The short - term inventory pressure of the three major oils is high, and demand is weak. The overall terminal demand for oils and fats is expected to remain stable and weak [81].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The stock index opened lower and rebounded in the late session, recouping some losses, with the trading volume in the two markets falling below 2 trillion yuan. The decline in the Asia - Pacific market and the increasing profit - taking intention of funds led to a correction in some sectors. The market showed strong wait - and - see sentiment, with the basis of stock index futures falling and market sentiment cooling. However, the late - session rebound indicated support at lower levels. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate. The market has significant differences in the Fed's subsequent interest - rate cut path, and attention should be paid to the US ADP data. The strategy recommended is to hold positions and wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index closed down collectively, with the large - cap index relatively resilient. The CSI 300 index closed down 0.75%. The trading volume in the two markets decreased by 1913.73 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IM declined with increasing volume, while other varieties declined with decreasing volume [3]. Important Information - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. The US Treasury Secretary threatened to impose additional tariffs on China if China continued to restrict rare - earth exports, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways [4]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -0.89 | -0.18 | -1.92 | -1.55 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.8199 | 5.0534 | 14.3967 | 23.3578 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | -2.4816 | -1.2191 | -0.511 | -2.4149 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.0097 | 9.6979 | 25.4358 | 36.2939 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | -0.1034 | -0.2629 | -0.0107 | 0.0556 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.41 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.71 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.45 | | Trading volume in the two markets (billion yuan) | 19157.58 | | Trading volume change (billion yuan) | -1913.73 | [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The trading focus of the soybean meal futures is on the export demand of US soybeans under the context of Sino-US negotiations. With the expectation of 12 million tons of exports to China being gradually priced in, the ending stocks are expected to remain around 300 million bushels, and the price oscillation range will shift slightly upwards. However, there is limited upward momentum due to the expected smooth planting of Brazilian soybeans. The domestic soybean meal is constrained by high near-term inventories, so the rebound space is limited. If the purchase of US soybeans is effectively initiated, it will bring a downward drive for the far-term, but the downward range is also limited due to the cost support from the rebound of the external market. For rapeseed meal, due to the ongoing Sino-Canadian negotiations affecting market expectations, the near-term futures performance is slightly stronger, but it is not advisable to chase the long side [1]. - The far-month soybean import profit has slightly recovered but remains at a low level, indicating limited far-term soybean purchases. With the easing of Sino-US trade relations, the market expects the resumption of US soybean purchases, alleviating the far-term supply gap. For rapeseed meal, there is a near-term supply gap due to Sino-Canadian tariffs, but demand is expected to weaken simultaneously. With the supply of rapeseed from other sources, the inventory is expected to decrease in the fourth quarter and slightly recover in the first quarter of next year. The "anti-involution" policy for downstream pigs is unlikely to effectively reduce demand, so the demand reduction is expected to be limited. The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans has returned to normal, laying a foundation for a smooth harvest, while the soil moisture in Argentina is still slightly dry. The subsequent pressure of a bumper harvest will be transmitted to the domestic meal market in the form of basis [15]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The external market focuses on US soybean exports to China, with limited upward momentum. The domestic market is constrained by high near-term inventories, and the far-term may face downward pressure if US soybean purchases resume [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Affected by Sino-Canadian negotiations, the near-term performance is slightly stronger, but chasing the long side is not recommended. The domestic rapeseed import has decreased significantly this year, and the market is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. With the expected resumption of Sino-Canadian talks and the arrival of Australian rapeseed, the subsequent demand increase is limited, and supply is expected to recover [1][2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to oscillate within a range. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2800 - 3200, and it is difficult to break through this range [23]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Unilateral long positions can be reduced; consider a covered call strategy with options, selling 3300 call options for the M2601 contract; sell 2600 call options for the rapeseed meal 2601 contract [23]. - **Basis, Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: Use accumulating option purchases to reduce basis pricing risks, and view the basis as likely to return to positive and strengthen. Hold the positive spread positions for M3 - 5 and M1 - 3. Short the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2601 contracts when the spread is between 650 - 700 [24]. 1.3 Industry Client Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The soybean meal price is expected to range between 2800 - 3300, and the rapeseed meal price between 2250 - 2750 [26]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high protein inventories can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits [26]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts showed different changes, with some rising and some falling. The CBOT yellow soybean price remained unchanged, and the offshore RMB exchange rate increased slightly [27]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed various trends, and the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also changed. The import costs and压榨 profits of US and Brazilian soybeans and Canadian rapeseed were also provided [28]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US Department of Agriculture will release the production report and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on November 14 (originally scheduled for November 10, but the release is uncertain due to the government shutdown). As of October 30, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 47%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year. The soybean planting area in Mato Grosso state has reached 76.13% of the expected area [31]. - **Negative Information**: Chinese importers have booked Brazilian soybeans due to price advantages. If China purchases 12 million tons of US soybeans by January next year, it can meet the USDA's export target for the 2024/25 season, but it may not drive a continuous price increase. The short-term price increase sustainability needs to be observed, and if the agreement implementation falls short of expectations, there may be technical profit-taking pressure [32]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream buyers continue to purchase on a just-in-time basis [33]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Monitor whether the USDA releases the supply and demand report on November 10. Also, pay attention to various reports such as the USDA export inspection report, Brazilian Secex weekly and monthly reports, USDA crop growth report, and CFTC agricultural product position report [37][40]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures rebounded due to short covering and the increase in external market costs. Rapeseed meal generally followed the trend of soybean meal, with a stronger rebound due to reduced warehouse receipt pressure and Sino-Canadian trade relationship uncertainties. The capital flow shows that foreign institutional short positions were closed, and institutional long positions were reduced in the second half of the week, indicating limited upward space. The put-call ratio (PCR) of soybean meal options shows a return of bearish sentiment [38]. - **Month Spread Structure**: The futures month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal generally show a B structure in the first half of the year and a C structure in the second half, related to their seasonal supply patterns. This week, the 1 - 5 month spread of soybean meal first rose and then fell, and the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal strengthened due to the unilateral increase in the 01 contract [43]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined this week due to the faster increase in futures prices than spot prices. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly decreased [47]. - **External Market**: The external and domestic markets showed a more consistent trend this week. After the expectation of Sino-US trade talks and the news of soybean purchases, US soybeans rebounded significantly, and the domestic market followed suit. The net long positions of CBOT soybean management funds have returned above the zero line, indicating a short-term return of long funds [52][56]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The crushing profit in the US soybean production area has weakened due to the decline in soybean product prices, but the monthly crushing volume remains at a high level for the year. The crushing profits in South American production areas (Brazil and Argentina) have also weakened, while the domestic crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed has increased due to the decline in rapeseed prices [58]. 4.2 Import and Export Crushing Profit Tracking - The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has declined recently due to the increase in import costs after the rebound of the US market, but it is still better than the current US soybean crushing profit under a 13% tariff. China will continue to mainly import Brazilian soybeans. The available export volume of Brazilian soybeans in the future is limited, and the domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to decline seasonally around holidays. Although the import of rapeseed shows a crushing profit, due to the import margin requirement, future purchases are expected to remain cautious [63]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Projections 5.1 International Supply and Demand Balance Sheet Projections - For the new crop balance sheet in September, the planting area is expected to marginally increase after a significant downward revision in August, and the yield per acre is expected to marginally decrease after being adjusted to the highest level in history. The total production is expected to remain between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. On the demand side, the crushing volume is expected to continue to grow due to domestic biodiesel policies, while exports will remain weak due to Sino-US trade relations. If Sino-US trade resumes, exports are expected to recover to above-normal levels. The ending stocks are expected to remain moderately tight [68]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Projections - Considering the potential import of US soybeans, the domestic soybean imports are expected to decline in the fourth quarter and then recover in the first quarter of next year. The import of rapeseed will continue to remain at a low level [70]. 5.3 Domestic Demand and Projections - The domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to remain high due to the carry-over inventory from the third quarter and the arrival of soybeans in the fourth quarter. After the previous high-level stocking, the subsequent consumption growth of domestic soybean meal is expected to be limited [74]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projections - The domestic soybean inventory is currently at a seasonal high but is expected to decline in the fourth quarter as imports decrease and then stabilize and recover in the first quarter of next year. The domestic soybean meal inventory will also remain high despite the decline in raw material inventory and crushing volume [76].

Group 1: Report Overview - The Nanhua Composite Index fell by -0.81% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1][3] - All sector indices declined, with the Nanhua Black Index having the largest decline of -1.21% and the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index having the smallest decline of -0.44% [1][3] - All theme indices declined, with the Economic Crop Index having the largest decline of -1.38% and the Oilseeds and Oils Index having the smallest decline of -0.28% [1][3] - Among single - variety commodity futures indices, the Glass index had the largest increase of 1.1%, and the Red Date index had the largest decline of -5.69% [1][3] Group 2: Index Market Data - The Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 2521.70, down -20.52 points or -0.81% from the previous close, with an annualized return of -1.24%, an annualized volatility of 11.71%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.11 [3] - The Nanhua Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) closed at 1497.88, down -17.96 points or -1.19% from the previous close, with an annualized return of 41.00%, an annualized volatility of 18.19%, and a Sharpe ratio of 2.25 [3] - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index (NHII) closed at 3534.20, down -31.66 points or -0.89% from the previous close, with an annualized return of -7.64%, an annualized volatility of 14.03%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.54 [3] - The Nanhua Metal Index (NHMI) closed at 6406.24, down -70.18 points or -1.08% from the previous close, with an annualized return of 0.33%, an annualized volatility of 12.25%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.03 [3] - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) closed at 1584.17, down -13.78 points or -0.86% from the previous close, with an annualized return of -14.53%, an annualized volatility of 16.73%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.87 [3] - The Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index (NHNF) closed at 1737.66, down -21.13 points or -1.20% from the previous close, with an annualized return of 3.23%, an annualized volatility of 12.55%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.26 [3] - The Nanhua Black Index (NHFI) closed at 2509.00, down -30.78 points or -1.21% from the previous close, with an annualized return of -7.15%, an annualized volatility of 17.10%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.42 [3] - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) closed at 1044.60, down -4.65 points or -0.44% from the previous close, with an annualized return of -3.50%, an annualized volatility of 8.66%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.40 [3] - The Nanhua Mini - Composite Index (NHCIMi) closed at 1167.54, down -9.11 points or -0.77% from the previous close, with an annualized return of -1.19%, an annualized volatility of 9.78%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.12 [3] - The Nanhua Coagulation Index (NHEI) closed at 1037.61, down -12.45 points or -1.19% from the previous close, with an annualized return of -1.01%, an annualized volatility of 20.01%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.05 [3] - The Nanhua Petrochemical Index (NHPCI) closed at 884.45, down -5.18 points or -0.58% from the previous close, with an annualized return of -3.44%, an annualized volatility of 9.63%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.36 [3] - The Nanhua Fine Chemical Index (NHCCI) closed at 931.28, down -7.44 points or -0.79% from the previous close, with an annualized return of -4.39%, an annualized volatility of 9.58%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.46 [3] - The Nanhua Black Raw Materials Index (NHFM) closed at 1064.15, down -14.24 points or -1.32% from the previous close, with an annualized return of 0.61%, an annualized volatility of 17.03%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.04 [3] - The Nanhua Building Materials Index (NHBMI) closed at 705.85, down -4.01 points or -0.57% from the previous close, with an annualized return of -2.16%, an annualized volatility of 12.48%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.17 [3] - The Nanhua Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOI) closed at 1225.85, down -3.41 points or -0.28% from the previous close, with an annualized return of -1.79%, an annualized volatility of 11.47%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.16 [3] - The Nanhua Economic Crop Index (NHAECI) closed at 901.72, down -12.58 points or -1.38% from the previous close, with an annualized return of -0.27%, an annualized volatility of 8.22%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.03 [3] Group 3: Single - Variety Index Data Agricultural Products Sector - Palm Oil index fell by -0.55%, Rapeseed Oil index fell by -0.29%, Rapeseed index rose by 0.24%, and Live Pig index fell by -0.43% [8] Energy and Chemical Sector - Styrene index fell by -1.60%, Crude Oil index fell by -0.77%, and Fuel Oil index fell by -0.93% [12] Black Sector - Coal index fell by -1.02% [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The overall start - up rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak gradually, and the supply - side pressure will gradually ease. The industry is in a wide - range shock stage with no significant driver currently [4]. - Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy boosting market sentiment and limited downward space for costs [4][5]. - Negative factors involve the weakening of demand due to downstream industrial integration or production - cut measures in the polysilicon industry [5]. Polysilicon - The short - term trading focus is on whether the November photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and then it will shift to the expectation game of the November warehouse receipt cancellation. High volatility and risks are present, and investors are advised to be cautious [7][8]. - Positive factors include potential industry capacity integration and clearance plans [9]. - Negative factors are the possible continuous inventory accumulation if the integration and clearance plans fail to materialize [9]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8885 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 255 yuan (- 2.79%) and a weekly decrease of 70 yuan (- 0.78%) [10]. - The trading volume and open interest of the main contract and weighted index contract have different changes, and the warehouse receipt quantity is 46161 lots, with a daily decrease of 1092 lots (- 2.31%) and a weekly decrease of 2024 lots (- 4.20%) [10]. Spot Data - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions have different changes, with some remaining stable and some showing small increases [17]. - The prices of mid - stream industrial silicon powder and downstream products such as trichlorosilane, polysilicon N - type price index, organic silicon DMC, and aluminum alloy ADC12 also have different trends [17]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipt quantity is 45823 lots, a decrease of 338 lots (- 0.12%) compared to the previous period. The warehouse receipt quantities in different delivery warehouses have different changes [29]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 53715 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 2350 yuan (- 4.19%) and a weekly decrease of 640 yuan (- 1.18%) [30]. - The trading volume and open interest of the main contract and weighted index contract have different changes, and the warehouse receipt quantity is 9590 lots, with a weekly increase of 440 lots (4.81%) [30]. Spot Data - The prices of different types of polysilicon, N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have different changes, with some remaining stable and some showing small increases or decreases [42][44]. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 1705 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2340 yuan (- 57.85%) and a weekly increase of 10 yuan (0.59%) [53]. - The total warehouse receipt quantity of polysilicon remains unchanged at 9590 lots [53].