镍&不锈钢日报 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | 5） | | 库存管 理 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现货下跌风 险 | 沪镍主力合约 卖出 | | 60% | 2 | | | | | 场外/场内期 | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购管 理 | 涨 | 根据生产计划买入沪镍远期合约，盘面提前采购锁定生产 | 远月沪镍合约 买入 | | 依据采购计 划 | 3 1 | | | | 成本 | | | 划 | | | | 公司未来有生产采购需求，担心原料价格上 | 卖出看跌期权 | 场内/场外期 | 卖出 | 依据采购计 | | | | | | 权 | | | | | | | 买入虚值看涨期权 | 场内/场外期 权 | 买入 | 依据采购计 划 | 3 | 管城瀚 2025-04-23 07:53:54 镍&不锈 ...

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年4月22日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 震荡横盘 市场回顾 今日股指震荡为主，以沪深300为例，收盘下跌0.02%。从资金面来看，两市成交额增加485.98亿元。期 指方面，IH缩量上涨，其余品种均缩量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 现货黄金周二亚盘时段连续冲破多个关口，刷新历史高位 2. 特朗普施压鲍威尔，美国重演股债汇三杀。 核心观点 当前多空因素分别为国内政策预期以及外部扰动，一方面，国内政策面不断引导下，积极政策预期对指数 形成一定支撑，另一方面外部不确定性较多，关税扰动仍是当前市场较关心的问题，同时美国经济衰退担 忧以及特朗普施压鲍威尔即刻降息，美国市场波动加大，A股市场也一定程度会受到影响。当前虽然整体 消息面偏多但外部仍存在较大不确定性，市场情绪较谨慎，且期指成交量加权平均基差历史分位除IH外均 位于5%以下的低位，我们维持谨慎看好的观点。 策略推荐 谨慎做多 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

南华商品指数：贵金属板块领涨，黑色板块领跌 王怡琳 摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数下跌-0.14%。板块指数中，涨幅最大的板块是南华贵 金属指数，上涨1.63%，涨幅最小的板块是南华农产品指数，涨幅为0.34%，跌幅最大的板块是南华黑色指数， 跌幅为-1.34%，跌幅最小的板块是南华有色金属指数，跌幅为-0.5%。 主题指数中，涨幅最大的主题指数是油 脂油料指数，上涨0.91%，涨幅最小的主题指数是能源指数，涨幅为0.06%，跌幅最大的主题指数是黑色原材料 指数，跌幅为-1.46%，跌幅最小的主题指数是迷你综合指数，跌幅为-0.28%。 商品期货单品 2025-04-22 16:48:14 南华商品指数日报 2025年4月22日 主題指数中，派榻最大的主題指數是油脂油料指数，上涨0.91%，漲幅最小的主題指数是能源指数，漲幅为0.08%，跌幅最大的主題指数是黑色原材料指数，跌幅均- 1.46%,跌幅最小的主题指数是迷你综合指数,跌幅为-0.28%。 商品期货单品种指数中，涨幅最大的单品种指数是黄金，上涨3.27%，跌幅最大的商品期货单品种指数是红枣，跌幅为~3.18%。 主要单品种指数收益 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the expansion of concerns about the global economic downturn risk caused by mutual tariff imposition between China and the US, crude oil prices have weakened significantly recently and are consolidating at a low level, and the macro - expectation has also turned significantly weaker. In the short term, the macro - pessimistic expectation may accelerate the implementation of polyester production reduction plans. Under the pessimistic demand expectation, the main game point in the near future will revolve around whether ethane - based ethylene glycol can bring about a reduction in supply [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the polyester industry. Positive factors include the expected large - scale loss of ethane - based ethylene glycol profit due to domestic counter - tariff measures, potential shutdowns in the future, the implementation of coal - based ethylene glycol maintenance plans and additional unexpected maintenance leading to a significant supply contraction, and market expectations for macro - policy stimulus to the economy as the Politburo meeting approaches. Negative factors include the further impact of US tariff increases on terminal textile and clothing export demand and the high hidden inventory of ethylene glycol factories, making effective destocking difficult to achieve in April [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyester Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecasts are as follows: ethylene glycol is 3800 - 4400 yuan, PX is 5500 - 6200 yuan, PTA is 3900 - 4500 yuan, and bottle chips are 5100 - 5700 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 30.73% for ethylene glycol, 44.15% for PX, 39.28% for PTA, and 31.25% for bottle chips. The current volatility historical percentiles (3 - year) are 91.3% for ethylene glycol, 99.4% for PX, 93.6% for PTA, and 98.6% for bottle chips [2]. 3.2 Polyester Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in ethylene glycol prices, enterprises can short ethylene glycol futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry interval of 4250 - 4350. They can also buy put options to prevent price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on order situations, enterprises can buy ethylene glycol futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry interval of 4000 - 4100. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price of ethylene glycol if the price drops, with a hedging ratio of 75% [2]. 3.3 Price and Related Data - **Commodity Prices**: Brent crude oil was at $65.6 per barrel on April 22, 2025, with a daily increase of $0.3 and a weekly increase of $1.7. Other commodities such as naphtha CFR Japan, toluene FOB Korea, and various polyester - related futures and spot prices also had corresponding price changes [4][7]. - **Spreads and Basis**: There are data on various spreads such as TA1 - 5 month spread, EG1 - 5 month spread, and basis such as TA main - contract basis, EG main - contract basis, etc., showing different degrees of changes [7]. - **Processing Fees and Profits**: Data on processing fees such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread, and profits of polyester products like POY, DTY, FDY, etc., are provided, with varying degrees of daily and weekly changes [7]. - **Sales Ratios**: The sales ratios of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips are presented, with the polyester filament sales ratio at 59.1% on April 22, 2025, showing an increase compared to the previous period [8].

双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 | | | 为防止焦炭价格下跌导致焦化利润受损，焦化厂可以根据销售计划，做空 | | | 25% | 1600-165 0 | | 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心焦炭价格下跌 | 多 | 焦炭期货来锁定价格 | J2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 1650-170 | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | 25% | 1000-105 0 | | 锁定售 价 | 焦煤现货库存高企，贸易商担心价格 进一步下跌 | 多 | 为了防止焦煤价格下跌影响贸易利润，贸易商可以卖出焦煤期货，提前锁 定销售价格 | JM250 9 | 卖出 | | | | | | | | | | 50% | 1050-110 | | | | | | | | | 0 | source： 南华研究 【核心矛盾】 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view [6] Core View - The current bullish and bearish factors are domestic policy expectations and external tariff disturbances respectively. Positive policy expectations support the index under the guidance of domestic policies. The US tariff negotiations are not optimistic, with some countries taking a tough stance, while Trump shows an intention to ease tariffs on China. With overall positive news, the stock index rose generally today. Under the domestic and foreign loose expectations, the small and medium - cap stock indexes performed better and showed a unilateral upward trend. However, there are still significant external uncertainties, market sentiment is cautious, and the historical percentile of the volume - weighted average basis of stock index futures, except for IH, is at a low level below 5% [6] Market Review - Today, except for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index which closed slightly lower, the rest of the stock indexes closed higher. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets rebounded by 12.6749 billion yuan. In the futures index, IH declined with increasing volume, while the other varieties rose with increasing volume [4] Important Information - The LPR quotation in April remained stable: the 1 - year LPR was reported at 3.10%, the same as last time; the over - 5 - year variety was reported at 3.60%, also the same as last time. - Ishiba Shigeru stated that Japan is not ready to make major concessions to the US and is not in a hurry to reach an agreement with the US [5] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change | 0.66% | - 0.08% | 1.85% | 2.27% | | Volume | 7.751 | 4.2261 | 8.7317 | 22.2169 | | Volume change compared to previous period | - 1.855 | - 0.712 | - 1.0559 | - 2.5927 | | Open interest | 247448 | 81204 | 204265 | 317103 | | Open interest change compared to previous period | 532 | 1637 | 1584 | 819 | [7] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | | Name | Value | | --- | --- | --- | | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.45 | | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.27 | | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 4.99 | | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 104.1405 | | | Trading volume change compared to previous period (billion yuan) | 12.6749 | [8]

库存维持高位，需求弱势反馈 ————南华纸浆周报 2 戴一帆 褚旭（投资咨询资格证号：Z0019081） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年4月20日 第一章 核心观点及回顾 核心观点：库存维持高位，需求弱势反馈 盘面回顾： 上周纸浆期货价格下跌走势， 持仓量减少，以多头减仓占优。 SP2507主力合约周度下跌52元/吨， 跌幅为0.96% ，收盘价为5362元/吨。 国内针叶浆周度现货价格下跌， 山东银星价格下跌75元至6350元/吨，河北俄针价格下跌50 元至5425元/吨；阔叶浆山东金鱼价格下跌100至4400元/吨。 产业表现： 据UTIPULP数据显示，2025年3月欧洲化学纸浆消费量86.57万吨，同比下降3.24%；欧洲化学纸浆库存量70.73万吨 ，同比上升6.24%。库存天数26天，较去年同期上升1天。根据海关数据，2025年3月纸浆进口总量324.9万吨，环比 +0.9%，同比+2.5%，累计963.9万吨，累计同比+5.0%。据国家统计局，2025年3月我国机制纸及纸板产量1455.3万吨 ，同比+3.6%，累计3819.0万吨，累计同比+3.8% 。 核心逻辑 ...

观点：主力换月 南华尿素产业链数据周报20250420 张博（Z0021070） 尿素区域现货流通图 需求：农业方面，北方农业处于停滞阶段，南方水稻区用肥阶段性跟进，不过因现阶段雨水情况不佳，农需补货有 所放缓。工业方面，复合肥行业部分小厂面临订单不足停产问题，但阶段性需求存在，复合肥工厂仍需补充原料来 应对前期订单。若后市原料尿素再度拉高，势必会给下游复合肥工厂带来成本面压力过大的反扑，预计短期内需求 面依旧刚需跟进为主。 现货：本周日山东1800（05基差+27），河南1790（05基差+17） 2 尿素周报观点 供应：本周期部分企业检修：本周期部分企业检修：山东润银生物化工、阳煤丰喜肥业、陕西陕化煤化工、乌石化 、山西天泽煤化工。本周期恢复的企业：河南晋控天庆煤化工、山东联盟化工、山东润银生物化工。下周尿素日产 量将在 19.3万吨附近。 库存：截至2025年4月16日，中国国内尿素企业库存量 90.62 万吨，环比+7.25 万吨，中国主要港口尿素库存统计 11.2 万吨，环比-0.7 万吨。 策略观点：尿素周五现货成交好转，现货及期货日内反弹。但是本周末现货成交再次回归清淡，北方地区基层仍处 于停滞 ...

观点：弱现实下，盘面进一步下挫 南华玻璃纯碱数据周报20250420 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻纯周报观点 玻璃： 供应：当前日熔15.8万吨，持稳。供应端变化不大，4月新增点火产线1条，河北长城四线700吨/日（4月12日 点火，计划内）；周末新增冷修1条，云南马龙海生润700吨产线今日冷修 库存：全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6507.8万重箱，环比-12.5万重箱，环比-0.19%，同比+9.94%。折库存天数 29.2天，较上期持平。上游厂库去库明显放缓，周均整体产销90附近。目前沙河期现库存约在13.5万吨，环比 下降3万吨。 利润：隆众数据，各工艺玻璃产线利润，天然气-167元，煤制气+129元，石油焦-4元。其中湖北进口石油焦涨 价，推升成本80-100元，保持关注。 需求：截至0415，深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.3天，环比13.4%，同比-17.7%；深加工持有原片库存11.4天 ，环比+16.3%，同比+1.8%。 策略观点：需求端疲弱的现实以及悲观预期推动，叠加本身中上游库存压力偏高，玻璃持续偏弱。这种现实和 预期下意 ...

观点：终端需求积重难返 南华聚酯周报20250420 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 戴一帆（Z0015428） 周燕勤（F03129302） 周嘉伟（F03133676） 核心观点：终端需求积重难返，供应担忧下博弈加剧 【库存】华东港口库至77.1万吨，环比上期减少2.9万吨。 【装置】中石化武汉28w近期停车，预计持续半个月；内蒙古建元26w近期重启；内蒙古兖矿40w近期重启； 聚酯周报观点 【观点】 本周EG价格在需求悲观与乙烷制减量存疑的背景下走势偏弱。基本面方面，供应端部分装置负荷波动，总负荷继续下调至 65.32%（-1.73%）。效益方面，受绝对价格下跌影响，煤制利润继续承压，部分成本较高边际装置小幅亏损；乙烯制方面利 润持稳，EO生产经济性继续走强，部分企业存转产EO动作。库存方面，本周实际到港中性，但近期港口整体发货不佳，下周 一港口显性库存预计累库2万吨左右。需求端，聚酯总负荷随瓶片装置重启继续上调至93.8%（+0.5%）。终端受关税事件影 响，直接出口美国订单基本全部暂停，需求进一步萎缩，出于对库存贬值的担心与需求前景不看好的原因，终端采购需求同 样仅维持刚需，织机开 ...