1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Oil prices continue to face pressure, with WTI crude oil falling below the $60 mark, and Brent and China's SC crude oil futures closing lower in tandem The core pressure stems from oversupply, as US crude oil production hits a record high and commercial crude oil inventories increase significantly Although sanctions against Russia and OPEC+'s suspension of production increases alleviate some expectations, the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged [1] - In the short term, oil prices will fluctuate within a range, and the weakening of the monthly spreads of European and American crude oil indicates a lack of upward momentum There is still a risk of unexpected inventory accumulation [1] - In the long term, the global energy sector has entered the "energy accumulation" era, with fossil fuels and renewable energy developing in parallel, and oil demand will remain at a high level [1] - In the short term, it is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset, seize opportunities to short on rallies, and guard against sudden risks such as geopolitical conflicts in Venezuela It is highly likely that the center of oil prices will decline this year [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Trade within a range, with strong resistance at $65 for Brent and support at $60 [2] - Arbitrage: Try shorting the monthly spreads [2] - Options: Stay on the sidelines [2] Logic Combing Core Pressure - The EIA report shows that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels, and domestic crude oil production reached a record high of 13.651 million barrels per day, with imports rising simultaneously, highlighting continuous supply pressure [7] - Although sanctions against Russia and OPEC+'s suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year alleviate some expectations of oversupply, the market still maintains the core judgment of "oversupply" and only slightly revises up the target for falling oil prices [7] Short - term Trend - Oil prices are currently in a narrow - range fluctuation, and funds are waiting to see the changes in the supply - demand pattern after sanctions against Russia Clear guidance from inventory and physical markets is needed [8] - The weakening of the monthly spreads of European and American crude oil indicates a lack of upward momentum for oil prices If there is unexpected inventory accumulation, market confidence will be further dampened [8] Key Influencing Factors - Geopolitical risk: Guard against the impact of a possible war in Venezuela, which may disrupt oil prices in the short term [9] - Demand side: Global refined oil performs better than crude oil US gasoline inventories have dropped to the lowest level since November 2022, and the European market drives diesel demand [9] Related Information - Saudi Aramco sets the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil for December to Asia at a premium of $1 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai crude oil average price, to the US at a premium of $3.20 per barrel to the Argus Sour Crude Index, and to Northwest Europe at a premium of $1.35 per barrel to the Brent crude oil settlement price [10] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 5.202 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 1.25% increase, compared with an expected increase of 0.603 million barrels and a previous decrease of 6.858 million barrels Cushing crude oil inventories in Oklahoma were 0.3 million barrels, compared with 1.334 million barrels in the previous week US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 0.498 million barrels to 409.6 million barrels, a 0.12% increase, compared with 0.533 million barrels in the previous week EIA heating oil inventories decreased by 0.036 million barrels, compared with an increase of 0.049 million barrels in the previous week EIA refined oil inventories decreased by 0.643 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.969 million barrels and a previous decrease of 3.362 million barrels Gasoline inventories decreased by 4.729 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.14 million barrels and a previous decrease of 5.941 million barrels Gasoline inventories in the US Midwest last week dropped to the lowest level in history, and US gasoline inventories for the week ending October 31 dropped to the lowest level since November 2022 [10] Global Crude Oil Spot Price and Spread Changes | Variety | 2025 - 11 - 06 | 2025 - 11 - 05 | 2025 - 10 - 30 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent Crude Oil M + 2 | 63.75 | 63.52 | 65 | 0.23 | - 1.25 | | WTI Crude Oil M + 2 | 59.66 | 59.42 | 60.2 | 0.24 | - 0.54 | | SC Crude Oil M + 2 | 460.1 | 463.4 | 461.3 | - 3.3 | - 1.2 | | Dubai Crude Oil M + 2 | 63.56 | 64.31 | 64.41 | - 0.75 | - 0.85 | | Oman Crude Oil M + 2 | 64.82 | 65.6 | 66.03 | - 0.78 | - 1.21 | | Murban Crude Oil M + 2 | 65.76 | 66.7 | 66.46 | - 0.94 | - 0.7 | | EFS Spread M + 2 | - 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.51 | - 0.17 | - 0.55 | | Brent Monthly Spread (M + 2 - M + 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 | 0.72 | - 0.1 | - 0.45 | | Oman Monthly Spread (M + 2 - M - 3) | 0.45 | 0.37 | 0.72 | 0.08 | - 0.27 | | Dubai Monthly Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 0.52 | 0.51 | 0.87 | 0.01 | - 0.35 | | SC Monthly Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | - 1.3 | - 0.8 | 0.3 | - 0.5 | - 1.6 | | SC - Dubai (M + 2) | 0.2757 | 1.0802 | 0.7352 | - 0.8045 | - 0.4595 | | SC - Oman (M + 2) | - 0.9943 | - 0.2698 | - 1.7948 | - 0.7245 | 0.8005 | [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of soybeans is currently in a stalemate due to selling pressure and cautious purchasing by traders, but the price correction is limited by factors such as the graded - pricing acquisition by CGC and the expected increase in acquisition at more depots. The futures market is strong, closing at a multi - month high, and the bottom of the new - season domestic soybean price is becoming clearer [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the soybean market. Bullish factors include the acquisition by CGC's Hulunbuir depot, the reduction in high - protein soybean production, and the absence of auction arrangements this week. Bearish factors are the possible resumption and expansion of US soybean imports after the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement and the extended selling period due to selling pressure at the grass - roots level [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for the Soybean No.1 11 contract is 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.11% and a historical percentile of 33.6% [3]. - **Risk Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For planting entities with high demand for selling new soybeans after the autumn harvest and large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to appropriately lock in planting profits by short - selling 30% of the Soybean No.1 futures contract A2601 when the price is above 4100 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Consider going long on contracts A2603 and A2605 after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - Spot selling pressure restrains the market, and traders are cautious about purchasing at high prices, focusing on high - quality supplies. The spot price is in a short - term stalemate [4]. - CGC's graded - pricing acquisition supports the price of high - quality soybeans and props up the market, limiting the price correction [4]. - Transportation capacity restricts the outward shipment from the Northeast production area. The price of high - quality soybeans in the South production area is firm, and the ordinary soybean market is stable. The reduction in production supports the price [4]. - On Wednesday, the Soybean No.1 futures market had a large - volume increase, reversing the adjustment since October 29 and reaching a multi - month closing high. The main 01 contract rose 47 yuan/ton to close at 4123 yuan, with slightly lower open interest and record - high trading volume. The number of registered warehouse receipts was approximately 10,088 hands [4]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: CGC's Hulunbuir depot started to purchase new - season domestic soybeans on the 6th, with graded pricing, sending a market - supporting signal. The reduction in high - protein soybean production supports market sentiment and purchasing behavior, and there are no auction arrangements this week [4]. - **Bearish Factors**: After the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, China may resume and expand the import of US soybeans, which is negative for domestic low - and medium - protein soybean supplies. The selling period at the grass - roots level may be extended due to selling pressure [5]. 3.4 Spot Price and Basis - **Spot Price**: On November 5, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin, Nenjiang, Jiamusi, and Changchun were 3920 yuan, 3890 yuan, 3960 yuan, and 3980 yuan respectively [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract for domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin, Nenjiang, Jiamusi, and Changchun on November 5, 2025, was - 203 yuan, - 165 yuan, - 95 yuan, and - 75 yuan respectively [6]. 3.5 Futures Price - On November 5, 2025, compared with November 4, the closing prices of Soybean No.1 contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, 07, and 09 increased by 4 yuan (0.10%), 68 yuan (1.68%), 70 yuan (1.72%), 68 yuan (1.66%), 71 yuan (1.73%), and 68 yuan (1.66%) respectively [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft can help identify future key focus areas. The Sino - US trade talks in Kuala Lumpur reached a phased consensus, which will reduce the impact of tariff policies on the market and improve market risk appetite [2]. - It is expected that the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger overall trend. Enterprises are advised to conduct exchange - rate risk management [4]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term as the Fed's rate - cut expectation has cooled, but there is support below [5]. - For treasury bonds, a long - term bullish view is maintained, and mid - term long positions should be held [6]. - The short - term bullish trend of container shipping futures on the European line will continue, but the widening basis between futures and spot prices increases volatility risk [10]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase. In the long - term, the price center of gravity is expected to rise, and investors can look for mid - term buying opportunities on dips [15]. - Copper prices are under pressure from the rising US dollar index, but there is support below. Aluminum prices are expected to be in an upward channel in the long - term, while alumina prices may be weak in the short - term [17][18]. - Zinc prices are expected to be in a strong and volatile state, and tin prices have sufficient bottom support [20][21]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to be in a volatile and strong state, while industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be in a wide - range volatile state [23][25]. - Lead prices are expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short - term [26]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, challenging previous lows [28]. - Coking coal and coke are suitable as long - positions in the black market, and their prices are expected to rise [30]. - Ferroalloys are expected to be in a volatile state, with high inventory and weak demand [31]. - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars this week, with limited upward or downward breakthrough potential [35]. - LPG is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, with limited fundamental support [37]. - PX - PTA is expected to be in a strong and volatile state along with the cost side, but the oversupply expectation of PTA still exists [40]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state, and a short - selling strategy is recommended on rallies [44]. - Methanol 01 may continue to decline, and it is recommended to hold previous short - call positions [46]. - PP and PE are in a state of strong supply and weak demand, and their prices are expected to be weak [49][51]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be weak and prone to decline, and short - selling opportunities after rallies are recommended [53][54]. - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to be weak, and profit - taking is recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals have improved [55][57]. - Asphalt is in a weak state. Short - term waiting or short - selling on rallies is recommended [59]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber are expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state, with support below but no strong upward drivers [62]. - Urea is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, facing pressure due to weak domestic demand [63]. - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, soda ash is expected to be weak, glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract, and caustic soda's market pressure is increasing [64][66][67]. - Pulp and offset paper are expected to be in a relatively volatile state in the short - term [68]. - Logs are in a weak state, and short - selling on rallies and 01 - 03 reverse arbitrage opportunities are recommended [69][70]. - Propylene is expected to be in a weak state, with an overall loose supply situation [72]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: US employment data exceeded market expectations. The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft was released, and the Sino - US trade talks reached a phased consensus. The US government has been shut down for 36 days [1][2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: It is expected that the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger overall trend. Enterprises are advised to conduct exchange - rate risk management [4]. - **Stock Index**: The Fed's rate - cut expectation has cooled, and the stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A long - term bullish view is maintained, and mid - term long positions should be held [6]. - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The short - term bullish trend will continue, but the widening basis between futures and spot prices increases volatility risk [10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: They are in a short - term adjustment phase. In the long - term, the price center of gravity is expected to rise, and investors can look for mid - term buying opportunities on dips [15]. - **Copper**: Copper prices are under pressure from the rising US dollar index, but there is support below. Some downstream orders have improved [17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to be in an upward channel in the long - term, while alumina prices may be weak in the short - term. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum prices [18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to be in a strong and volatile state, with support at the bottom in November [20]. - **Tin**: It has sufficient bottom support, and a long - term bullish view is maintained [21]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is expected to be in a volatile and strong state, with a relatively stable supply increment and strong demand in November [23]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a supply reduction expectation, and polysilicon's fundamentals are still weak [25]. - **Lead**: It is expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short - term due to supply disturbances [26]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, challenging previous lows. The anti - dumping investigation on hot - rolled coils may affect far - month contracts [28]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are suitable as long - positions in the black market, and their prices are expected to rise due to downstream replenishment and supply restrictions [30]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are in a state of high inventory and weak demand, and are expected to be in a volatile state [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars this week, with limited upward or downward breakthrough potential [35]. - **LPG**: It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, with limited fundamental support [37]. - **PTA - PX**: It is expected to be in a strong and volatile state along with the cost side, but the oversupply expectation of PTA still exists [40]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state, and a short - selling strategy is recommended on rallies [44]. - **Methanol**: Methanol 01 may continue to decline, and it is recommended to hold previous short - call positions [46]. - **PP and PE**: They are in a state of strong supply and weak demand, and their prices are expected to be weak [49][51]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: They are expected to be weak and prone to decline, and short - selling opportunities after rallies are recommended [53][54]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to be weak, and profit - taking is recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals have improved [55][57]. - **Asphalt**: It is in a weak state. Short - term waiting or short - selling on rallies is recommended [59]. - **Rubber & 20 - number Rubber**: They are expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state, with support below but no strong upward drivers [62]. - **Urea**: It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, facing pressure due to weak domestic demand [63]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is expected to be weak, glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract, and caustic soda's market pressure is increasing [64][66][67]. - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: They are expected to be in a relatively volatile state in the short - term [68]. - **Logs**: They are in a weak state, and short - selling on rallies and 01 - 03 reverse arbitrage opportunities are recommended [69][70]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to be in a weak state, with an overall loose supply situation [72].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil facing supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, with the current price oscillating around $65, and OPEC maintaining an increasing production state [2] - The November CP contract price was announced, with propane at $475/ton (-$20) and butane at $460/ton (-$15), better than expected. The equivalent RMB landed cost is about 4394 yuan/ton for propane and 4276 yuan/ton for butane [2] - US propane inventories continued to accumulate this week, reaching a historical high and waiting for an inventory inflection point [2] - The State Council adjusted tariff - adding measures on November 10, 2025. The 24% tariff on US imports will be suspended for one year, and the 10% tariff on PG will remain, which helps stabilize logistics [3] - During the Sino - US talks this week, an agreement was reached on issues such as tariffs and export controls, and the Sino - US economic and trade friction was suspended [4] - The domestic LPG fundamentals are relatively stable. Supply increased this week, while demand remained stable. However, due to the rise in propane price and the decline in PL/PP price, PDH profits were significantly compressed. Continuous or deepening losses may cause negative feedback [4] - PDH losses may cause negative feedback, and propane cracking profits have also shrunk below zero [5] Summary by Related Catalogs LPG Price Range Prediction - The predicted monthly price range for LPG is 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.37% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentage of 35.54% [1] LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short PG2512 futures at 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs; also, sell PG2512C4400 call options at 60 - 70 yuan with a 25% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [1] Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy PG2512 futures at around 4000 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG2512P4000 put options at 50 - 70 yuan with a 25% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot buying price if the PG price drops [1] Industry Data Summary - The report provides price, spread, monthly spread, price ratio, and profit data for various LPG - related products on different dates, including Brent, WTI, MOPJ, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [7] Seasonal Data - The report presents seasonal data for prices, spreads, monthly spreads, price ratios, profits, and freight rates of various LPG - related products, such as LPG futures, FEI, CP, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [9][11][17]

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: November 06, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Northeast corn prices are stable after new - season supply shock, with state - reserve purchases limiting downside; North China prices fluctuate due to selling pressure and acquisition competition; corn prices are still affected by new - season selling pressure but have stopped falling [2] - On Wednesday, the corn futures market had a narrow - range shock, while the starch market was strong; the CBOT corn futures rose due to high US ethanol production [2] - The market is affected by both positive and negative factors, and the price may show a bottom - consolidation and potential rebound trend [2] Summary by Category Market Situation - **Domestic Corn and Starch Futures**: On Wednesday, the corn futures main 01 contract closed at 2134 yuan, with slightly reduced trading volume, slightly increased open interest, and 66351 registered warrants; the starch main 01 contract closed at 2451 yuan, with decreased trading volume and slightly increased open interest [2] - **CBOT Corn Futures**: On Wednesday, CBOT corn futures closed higher. As of October 31, US ethanol daily production reached a record high of 1.123 million barrels, and strong domestic demand offset the pressure of a bumper harvest [2] Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Selling pressure is dispersed, reducing price pressure; state - reserve purchases in the Northeast support prices; rising prices of surrounding agricultural products indirectly support the corn market [2] - **Negative Factors**: The pig industry's capacity regulation affects long - term corn feed demand, although short - term demand remains good; late - harvested corn will be listed in mid - to - early November, and there is a risk of concentrated selling pressure; market rumors of wheat auctions and increased grain imports may increase pressure on the corn market [2][3] Price Forecast - **Monthly Price Range**: Corn is predicted to be in the range of 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.43% and a volatility percentile of 53.2%; starch is predicted to be in the range of 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.61% and a volatility percentile of 42.30% [3] Price and Spread Data - **Domestic Futures Price Changes**: From November 4th to 5th, most corn and starch futures contracts had small price changes, with some rising and some remaining flat; the wheat average price decreased by 3 yuan to 2511 yuan [5] - **US Agricultural Futures and Import Data**: CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat main contracts all rose on the 5th; the US Gulf and West Coast corn import duty - paid prices increased slightly, with import profits of 96.03 yuan and 212.15 yuan respectively [24] Seasonal Charts - The report also includes multiple seasonal charts, such as corn futures month - spread (01 - 05), corn and starch main - contract closing prices, corn and starch futures open interest, corn and wheat price spreads, and corn basis spreads, which can be used to analyze historical price trends and seasonal patterns [6][7][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the precious metals price, in the short term, they are in an adjustment phase. There is expected to be no strong driving force in November. It is advisable to look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and those holding long positions should continue to hold them cautiously. The resistance for London gold is 4050 - 4100, support is 3900, and strong support is in the 3800 - 3850 area. For silver, the resistance is 49.5 - 50, support is 47.5, and strong support is 45.5 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, precious metals prices rebounded slightly but remained in a narrow - range oscillation, reversing Tuesday's pattern. The US dollar index oscillated, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose, the US stock market rebounded, the European stock market rose, Bitcoin rebounded, crude oil prices fell, and the Southern China Non - ferrous Metals Index oscillated at a low level. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3990.4 per ounce, up 0.75%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $47.86 per ounce, up 1.2%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 912.26 yuan per gram, down 0.77%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11276 yuan per kilogram, down 0.73%. The US October ADP employment increased by 42,000, the largest increase since July 2025 and higher than the expected 28,000. The September total employment was revised to a decrease of 29,000 from a decrease of 32,000. After the data, precious metals briefly declined and then returned to an upward trend. The US October ISM services PMI rebounded unexpectedly, reaching an eight - month high, and the price - paid index hit a three - year high [2] 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut in December remains uncertain. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged on December 11 is 37.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 62.5%. For January 29, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 25.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 19.4%. For March 19, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 17.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 45.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 31.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 6.4%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 1038.63 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 16.93 tons to 15150.71 tons. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.4 tons to 656.2 tons, and the SGX silver inventory decreased by 74.9 tons to 830.33 tons as of the week ending October 31 [3] 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening and whether the US government shutdown will delay the data release. Regarding events, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report at 20:00 on Thursday. FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give a speech at 00:00 on Friday; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Harker will speak at the New York Economic Club at 01:00; 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will speak at 05:30; 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem will have a fireside chat on monetary policy at 06:30; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the European Central Bank Money Market Conference at 16:00 [4] 3.4 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Price Table - Provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver main - continuous contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, SHFE - TD gold and silver spreads, and the CME gold - silver ratio [6] 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - Shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, SHFE gold and silver positions, SPDR gold holdings, and SLV silver holdings [13] 3.6 Stock - Bond - Commodity Overview - Presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10Y US Treasury yield, and 10Y US real interest rate [18]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term bond market is in a consolidation phase, but the medium - term outlook remains optimistic. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, continue to hold medium - term long positions, and those with empty positions should wait for a pullback to enter the market [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Review - On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures opened higher and closed lower, with most varieties ending in the red. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.32%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 6.55 billion, the repurchase was 70 billion, and the net injection was 20.78 billion [1]. b. Important Information - In October, 2.31 million new A - share accounts were opened, a 21% decrease from the previous month [2]. - The US Supreme Court will make a decision on Wednesday regarding Trump's tariffs, which depend on three justices appointed by Trump himself. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he would go to the Supreme Court and emphasized the importance of tariffs [2]. c. Market Analysis - After the market closed yesterday, the central bank announced that it had net - bought 20 billion of Treasury bonds in October and would conduct a 70 - billion repurchase operation today. The bond market opened higher in the morning, showing an optimistic reaction to the news. However, the A - share market opened lower and closed higher, putting some pressure on the bond market. The decline in the number of new A - share accounts in October indicates that as the profit - making effect weakens, the inflow of funds has slowed down, and the stock market is no longer the main factor affecting the bond market [3]. d. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures | Contract | 2025 - 11 - 04 Price | 2025 - 11 - 03 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 11 - 04 Position | 2025 - 11 - 03 Position | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.494 | 102.51 | - 0.016 | 83306 | 83653 | - 347 | | TF2512 | 106.015 | 106.045 | - 0.03 | 179279 | 179924 | - 645 | | T2512 | 108.635 | 108.655 | - 0.02 | 290431 | 288156 | 2275 | | TL2512 | 116.52 | 116.48 | 0.04 | 178880 | 179765 | - 885 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0397 | - 0.0487 | 0.009 | 19329 | 24640 | - 5311 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0523 | - 0.0616 | 0.0093 | 50509 | 52682 | - 2173 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0019 | - 0.0002 | 0.0021 | 66835 | 65902 | 933 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.2246 | - 0.0061 | 0.2307 | 86971 | 98827 | - 11856 | [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.03% today. Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the largest increase of 0.74%, and the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the smallest increase of 0.04%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest decline of -0.11%, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index had the smallest decline of -0.02%. Among the theme indices, the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the largest increase of 0.7%, and the Energy Index had the smallest increase of 0.24%. The Building Materials Index had the largest decline of -0.67%, and the Coal Chemical Index had the smallest decline of -0.06% [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Index - The Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.03%. Sector and theme indices had different performances in terms of increases and decreases [1]. Performance of Main Single - Variety Indices - In the agricultural products sector, palm oil decreased by -0.30%, rapeseed oil decreased by -0.38%, rapeseed increased by 0.67%, rapeseed meal increased by 1.60%, and live pigs increased by 2.23%. In the energy and chemical sector, some products like methanol increased by 1.23%, while others had different performance. The largest decline among single - variety indices was caustic soda with a decline of -1.41% [1][7][10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - Affected by the short - selling of Nvidia and Palantir by the fund under Michael Burry, the prototype of the movie "The Big Short", the US stock AI sector plunged. Coupled with intensified concerns about high valuations, US stocks tumbled, and the Asia - Pacific market continued to decline generally. The A - share market's risk appetite was affected, opening lower today. The large - cap stock index was relatively resilient, rising before the morning close with a style switch between large and small - cap stocks. Except for the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, all other indices closed higher at the afternoon close, with the TMT sector leading the decline throughout the day. In the three trading days this week, the intraday trend of stock indices rebounded, indicating strong support below, but lacking sufficient upward momentum. The trading volume of the two markets has been below 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, showing a state of being supported but not rising. There are long - short differences in the current market, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The US ADP data to be released tonight is expected to influence the market's interest - rate cut expectations and thus have an impact on the stock index trend [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, except for the Shanghai Composite 50, which slightly declined, all other stock indices closed higher. For example, the CSI 300 Index closed up 0.19%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 434.17 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IH declined with increasing volume, while other varieties rose with increasing volume [2] Important Information - The US Senate failed to pass the appropriation bill, and the federal government's "shutdown" will break the record. - The "Big Short" is short - selling 80% of his positions in Palantir and Nvidia, expressing a bearish view on the AI bubble [3] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.41 | - 0.01 | 0.55 | 0.77 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.6616 | 5.312 | 14.7163 | 23.8684 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | - 0.1583 | 0.2586 | 0.3196 | 0.5106 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.004 | 9.6978 | 25.6435 | 36.6783 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.158 | 0.2204 | 0.4279 | 0.331 | [5] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite change (%) | 0.23 | | Shenzhen Component change (%) | 0.37 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.77 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 18723.41 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | - 434.17 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In October, the domestic soybean market prices rose significantly due to factors like partial production cuts in some regions and active acquisitions by middle - and downstream players. However, this led to cautious inventory building at the acquisition end, a sell - off due to price stagnation, and a subsequent price correction. The expected resumption of US soybean imports after Sino - US trade negotiations also dampened market sentiment and weakened the upward momentum of futures prices [4]. - On Tuesday, the soybean No.1 futures continued to decline. The main 01 contract dropped 37 yuan/ton to close at 4055 yuan, with slightly lower trading volume and open interest, and a significant increase in registered warehouse receipts [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Prediction and Risk Strategies - **Price Range Prediction**: The predicted monthly price range for the soybean No.1 11 - contract is 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.00% and a historical percentile of 37.4% [3]. - **Risk Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For planting entities with high demand for selling newly - harvested soybeans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to lock in planting profits by short - selling 30% of the soybean No.1 futures (A2601) when the price is above 4100 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, it is advisable to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Consider going long on A2603 and A2605 contracts after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Positive Factors**: The new - season domestic soybeans are being purchased by the Hulunbuir warehouse of Sinograin at market prices, and the market is actively delivering. The production cut of high - protein soybeans supports market sentiment and acquisition behavior, and there are no auction arrangements this week [4]. - **Negative Factors**: After the progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, China may resume and expand imports of US agricultural products, starting with soybeans, which is negative for domestic low - and medium - protein soybeans. The short - term supply - demand relationship has changed due to increased selling pressure at the grass - roots level and cautious inventory - building by enterprises. The significant increase in registered warehouse receipts on Tuesday also adds hedging pressure [4][8]. 3.3 Price and Basis Information - **Spot Prices and Main Basis**: On November 4, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in different regions and their corresponding basis to the main contract are as follows: 3900 yuan in Harbin (- 135 basis), 3860 yuan in Nenjiang (- 216 basis), 3940 yuan in Jiamusi (- 136 basis), and 3970 yuan in Changchun (- 106 basis) [6]. - **Futures Closing Prices**: From November 3 to 4, 2025, the closing prices of various soybean No.1 futures contracts declined. For example, the 11 - contract dropped from 4076 yuan to 4044 yuan (- 0.79%), and the 01 - contract fell from 4076 yuan to 4055 yuan (- 0.52%) [9].