Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the lithium carbonate futures price will show an "oscillating and strengthening" trend in the range of 74,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton in the next month. If the lithium ore gap cannot be filled in time, the price may break through 85,000 yuan/ton [5]. - On the lithium ore side, the expected increase in the quantity of imported lithium concentrates this month can ease the supply tightness. The release of salt lake production capacity will continuously supplement the supply of the lithium salt market, and the "resumption speed of Jianxiaowo" is a key variable. If its resumption progress exceeds market expectations, it will directly expand the lithium salt supply scale and potentially suppress prices. The current demand is strong, and the prices of core battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate are rising, indicating the demand toughness for lithium carbonate. The high - prosperity production schedule in November will maintain the strong demand for lithium salts, intensifying the supply - demand mismatch of lithium ore. The downstream demand of lithium battery material enterprises is expected to increase month - on - month by the end of the year, which will support the spot price of lithium carbonate [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The 20 - day rolling volatility of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 30.0%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in 3 years is 45.1%. The strong pressure level of the LC2601 contract is 85,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Contract Information**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 78,560 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 3,720 yuan (- 4.52%) and a weekly decrease of 3,080 yuan (- 3.77%). The trading volume is 975,978 lots, with a daily increase of 389,310 lots (66.36%) and a weekly increase of 246,671 lots (33.82%). The open interest is 457,374 lots, with a daily decrease of 67,810 lots (- 12.91%) and a weekly decrease of 31,429 lots (- 6.43%) [8]. - **Spread Information**: LC2601 - LC2603 is 100 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 420 yuan (- 80.77%) and a weekly decrease of 640 yuan (- 86.49%); LC2601 - LC2605 is - 500 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 580 yuan (- 725.00%) and a weekly decrease of 740 yuan (- 308.33%); LC2603 - LC2605 is - 600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 160 yuan (36.36%) and a weekly increase of 100 yuan (20.00%) [8]. - **Warehouse Receipt Information**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 26,490 lots, with a daily decrease of 800 lots (- 2.93%) and a weekly decrease of 845 lots (- 3.09%) [8]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores have different degrees of decline. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 2,115 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 35 yuan (- 1.63%) and a weekly increase of 50 yuan (2.42%) [26]. - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,700 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 100 yuan (- 0.13%) and a weekly increase of 2,400 yuan (3.15%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,900 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 100 yuan (- 0.12%) and a weekly increase of 2,400 yuan (3.06%) [29]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also have different changes. For example, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 36,025 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 25 yuan (- 0.07%) [38]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Information**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands vary. For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2601) is - 100 yuan, and the four - material comprehensive basis quote (LC2601) is - 225 yuan [42]. - **Warehouse Receipt Information**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 26,490 lots, a decrease of 800 lots compared with yesterday. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities, such as a decrease of 150 lots in Xiangyu Speed - Pass Shanghai and 440 lots in Suining Tiancheng [45]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore, including the production profit from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as the import profit and theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate [46][47][49]. 5. Risk Management Strategies - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with plans to produce battery materials in the future, if they are worried about the increase in procurement costs due to rising lithium carbonate prices, they can buy corresponding futures contracts or sell put options to lock in procurement costs. The hedging ratio is 20%, and the recommended entry range is below 73,000 yuan for futures and LC2512 - P - 73000 for options [2]. - **Sales Management**: For enterprises with plans to produce lithium carbonate in the future, if they are worried about the decrease in sales profits due to falling prices, they can sell corresponding futures contracts or buy put options and sell call options to lock in sales profits. The hedging ratio for futures is 40%, and 20% for options [2]. - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventories, if they are worried about inventory depreciation due to falling prices, they can sell futures contracts or call options to lock in inventory value. The hedging ratio for futures is 60% (above 83,000 yuan), and 30% for call options (LC2601 - C - 83000) [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The key trading point of the current soybean meal futures lies in the export demand of US soybeans in the context of China-US negotiations. With an expected export volume of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in and limited incremental factors, the ending inventory will remain around 300 million bushels, and the price oscillation range will shift slightly upwards. However, with the smooth progress of soybean planting in Brazil, there will be limited upward driving forces. The upward space of the domestic soybean meal rebound is expected to be limited due to the high inventory pressure in the near - term. The purchase of US soybeans will lead to a downward driving force in the far - term, but the cost support will also limit the decline [4]. - The key trading point of the current rapeseed meal futures is that the domestic rapeseed meal is affected by the continuous China - Canada negotiations. In the short term, due to the approaching of the warrant cancellation month, the futures price shows a slightly stronger performance, but it is not advisable to chase the long position. Since the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed was announced on August 12, domestic importers have been cautious about purchasing Canadian rapeseed. The import volume this year has decreased by 42% compared with the same period last year. The fourth quarter will maintain a state of weak supply and demand. After the Chinese government decided to resume group tours to Canada on November 3, the subsequent demand is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 9.8% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 6.9%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 18.7% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 40.2% [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Instrument | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise inventory | M2601 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance | M2601 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise situation | M2601 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - For soybean meal: The external market focuses on export demand, while the domestic market is constrained by high inventory in the near - term and the purchase of US soybeans in the far - term. Short - term attention should be paid to whether a procurement and tariff adjustment agreement is signed between China and the US this week [4]. - For rapeseed meal: Affected by China - Canada negotiations, the short - term performance is slightly stronger, but the subsequent demand is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover. The new warrant registration situation after the centralized cancellation in November can be monitored [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Interpretations - **Bullish factors**: The Brazilian export premium supports the far - term contract price from the cost side; the external market continues to strengthen under the background of purchasing US soybeans; the pressure in the near - term is alleviated due to the approaching of the warrant cancellation month [5]. - **Bearish factors**: The inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China remains high, and soybean meal will continue the seasonal inventory accumulation trend; the smooth planting in Brazil and the expected high yield in South America suppress the far - term futures price; the supply gap in the far - term is filled under the background of China - US negotiations and procurement [6][7]. 3.5 Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3015 | - 11 | - 0.36% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2818 | - 11 | - 0.39% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2935 | - 14 | - 0.47% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2497 | 6 | 0.24% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2378 | - 2 | - 0.08% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2466 | - 4 | - 0.16% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1134.5 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.127 | 0.0129 | 0.18% | [7] 3.6 Price Spreads - **Soybean meal spreads**: The spread between M01 and M05 is 197 (no daily change), between M05 and M09 is - 117 (up 3), and between M09 and M01 is - 80 (down 3). The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 3040 (no change), and the basis is 25 (up 11) [8]. - **Rapeseed meal spreads**: The spread between RM01 and RM05 is 119 (up 8), between RM05 and RM09 is - 88 (up 2), and between RM09 and RM01 is - 31 (down 10). The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2580 (up 130), and the basis is 89 (up 27) [8]. - **Soybean meal - rapeseed meal spreads**: The spot price spread is 460 (no change), and the futures price spread is 518 (down 17) [8]. 3.7 Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) | 4858.2301 | - 88.7137 | 0.2633 | | Import cost of Brazilian soybeans | 4116.33 | 60.38 | 79.49 | | Cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) | - 789.9561 | - 10.8447 | - 57.4083 | | Import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) | - 991.4751 | - 88.7137 | - 404.2412 | | Import profit of Brazilian soybeans | - 38.6558 | 0.6921 | - 10.2467 | | Import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed (futures) | 596 | - 63 | - 135 | | Import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed (spot) | 857 | - 56 | - 130 | [9]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's policy operations. It maintains a bullish view on the medium - term, advising to hold long - term positions and wait for buying opportunities on market pullbacks [1][3] Group 3: Market Conditions 1. Futures Market - On November 4, 2025, TS and TF continued to adjust, T and TL remained volatile. TL slightly rose, while the others slightly declined. TS2512 was at 102.494 (-0.016), TF2512 at 106.015 (-0.03), T2512 at 108.635 (-0.02), and TL2512 at 116.52 (+0.04) [1][4] 2. Position and Trading Volume - TS contract positions decreased by 347 to 83,306, TF decreased by 645 to 179,279, T increased by 2,275 to 290,431, and TL decreased by 885 to 178,880. TS main contract trading volume decreased by 5,311 to 19,329, TF decreased by 2,173 to 50,509, T increased by 933 to 66,835, and TL decreased by 11,856 to 86,971 [4] 3. Basis - TS basis (CTD) was -0.0397 (+0.009), TF basis (CTD) was -0.0523 (+0.0093), T basis (CTD) was -0.0002 (-0.124), and TL basis (CTD) was 0.2246 (+0.2307) [4] Group 4: Important Information - Lan Fo'an stated that not adding implicit debt should be regarded as an "iron - clad discipline". US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will attend the Supreme Court's oral argument on the legality of Trump's tariffs, emphasizing it as a "national security matter" [2] Group 5: Market Outlook - The stock market had a volume - shrinking adjustment, but the bond market's gains were limited. Long - term bonds basically maintained a volatile pattern. In the short term, there is a lack of trading hotspots. Attention should be paid to the central bank's monthly liquidity release announcement. If there is no bond purchase for the time being, buying opportunities can be grasped during market pullbacks [3] Group 6: Other Data - The funds were loose, with DR001 around 1.31%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 11.75 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 35.78 billion yuan [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growth in investment demand (monetary easing prospects and periodic safe - haven trading) will continue to push up the price center of precious metals, in the short term, the market has entered an adjustment phase. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to add positions on dips, and those with existing long positions should continue to hold them cautiously [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Condition - On Monday, precious metal prices fluctuated and consolidated. The U.S. dollar index rose slightly, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield increased slightly, the U.S. stock market continued to fluctuate and adjust, Bitcoin fell, crude oil fluctuated, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index also fluctuated as a whole [2]. - The final settlement price of the COMEX gold 2512 contract was $4013.4 per ounce, down 0.06%; the U.S. silver 2512 contract settled at $48.25 per ounce, down 0.75%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 922.58 yuan per gram, up 0.47%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11455 yuan per kilogram, up 0.39% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations cooled slightly. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 32.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 67.3% [3]. - The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 2.58 tons to 1041.78 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings remained at 15189.82 tons. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6.7 tons to 658.9 tons per day; as of the week of October 24, the SGX silver inventory decreased by 145.4 tons to 905.2 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the U.S. non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening. There will also be data such as ISM manufacturing and services PMI and ADP small non - farm data released during the week. Also, pay attention to whether the U.S. government shutdown will delay data releases [4]. - In terms of events, on Thursday at 08:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report. On Friday, multiple FOMC members will give speeches [4]. 3.4 Price Ranges - The resistance level for London gold is 4050 - 4100, the support level is 3900, and the strong support is in the 3800 - 3850 area; for silver, the resistance is 49.5 - 50, the support is 47.5, and the strong support is 45.5 [5]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The report also provides data on precious metal futures and spot prices, inventory and position data, and stock, bond, and commodity market data, including the U.S. dollar index, U.S. stocks, crude oil, and U.S. Treasury yields [5][13][15][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Today, the stock index first declined and then rebounded, with small and medium - cap stock indices breaking through the 30 - day moving average during the session, while large - cap stock indices were relatively resilient. Affected by the "Notice on Improving Duty - Free Shop Policies to Support and Boost Consumption", the Hainan Free Trade concept continued to lead the gains. [4] - Recently, the news has been relatively calm, and the market is mainly driven by capital games. There is a callback pressure on the stock index as some funds in previously high - flying sectors are more willing to take profits. However, due to strong signals of stabilizing the market, the downside space of the stock index is expected to be limited. [4] - In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see. Attention should be paid to the US employment data to be released this week, as it may have a significant impact on the Fed's December interest - rate cut expectations. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index first fell and then rose, with all indices closing up. For example, the CSI 300 index closed up 0.27%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 2106.62 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IC declined with shrinking volume, IH remained flat, and IM rose with shrinking volume. [2] Important Information - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement on the tax policy for gold, which will be implemented from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027. This policy is expected to make the gold market's consumption and investment environment more transparent and healthy. [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Asset Management Association of China solicited public opinions on the guidelines for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds. The introduction of these two documents will promote the standardization of the performance comparison benchmarks of domestic public funds and strengthen the discipline of investment management. [3] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see. [5] Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | - 0.04 | 0.00 | - 0.34 | 0.01 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.5046 | 5.1158 | 14.0206 | 22.9133 | | Trading volume change from previous day (10,000 lots) | - 2.4816 | - 1.2191 | - 0.511 | - 2.4149 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.0097 | 9.6979 | 25.4358 | 36.2939 | | Open interest change from previous day (10,000 lots) | - 0.1034 | - 0.2629 | - 0.0107 | 0.0556 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.55 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.19 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.96 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 21071.31 | | Trading volume change from previous day (billion yuan) | - 2106.62 | [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - In November, the corn harvest is gradually ending, and the first - round selling pressure peak of new grain has passed. Corn prices first declined and then rebounded, showing stronger resilience. The performance varies by region: the Northeast region is supported by state - reserve purchases, and prices have stabilized after falling in mid - and early - October; the North China region has recovered from the impact of rainfall in October, and prices have risen as the selling pressure has weakened. Recently, the number of trucks arriving in Shandong has decreased, and enterprises have continuously raised purchase prices. The atmosphere in the corn spot market has gradually stabilized, and the selling pressure has become more dispersed, alleviating price pressure. In the past two days, the spot and futures prices of corn have risen in resonance, and the market atmosphere has improved. The starch market has shown a slightly stronger upward trend than the corn market [1]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting corn prices. Positive factors include the dispersion of selling pressure, support from state - reserve purchases in the Northeast, the比价 effect of rising soybean prices, and the unconfirmed news of wheat auctions in November, which has increased market bullish sentiment. Negative factors include the continuous decline in pig prices and the potential impact on long - term corn feed demand, as well as the potential for concentrated selling pressure when late - harvested corn is listed in mid - and early - November [2][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for corn is 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.47% and a volatility percentile of 55.3%. For starch, the monthly price range forecast is 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.58% and a volatility percentile of 42.10% [2]. Spot Price and Basis - Corn spot prices: Jinzhou Port is at 2150 yuan (up 20 yuan), Shekou Port is at 2250 yuan (up 20 yuan), and Harbin is at 2010 yuan (unchanged). Starch spot prices: Shandong is at 2750 yuan (up 10 yuan), Jilin is at 2550 yuan (unchanged), and Heilongjiang is at 2450 yuan (down 10 yuan). The basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract for corn is 9 yuan (up 9 yuan), and the basis of Shandong's main - continuous contract for starch is 297 yuan (down 3 yuan) [2]. Futures Price Changes - Corn futures: Contracts from 11 to 09 have different degrees of price increases, with the largest increase of 24 yuan (1.14%) in the corn 11 contract and the smallest increase of 0 yuan (0.00%) in the corn 09 contract. Starch futures: Contracts from 11 to 09 also show price increases, with the largest increase of 18 yuan (0.75%) in the corn starch 11 contract and the smallest increase of 6 yuan (0.23%) in the corn starch 07 contract [5]. Seasonal Data - The report presents multiple seasonal data, including corn futures monthly spreads (such as 01 - 05, 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 03 - 05), starch futures monthly spreads (such as 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 03 - 05), the basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract for corn, the basis of Shandong's main - continuous contract for starch, the difference between starch and corn prices for the 01 contract, the weekly inventory of major deep - processing enterprises in China, the available inventory days of Chinese corn feed enterprises, the closing price of CBOT corn, and the import price and profit of US corn [6][14][28]. International Market Data - In the international market, CBOT corn futures closed slightly higher on Monday, supported by good export inspection data and the continued rise of soybeans. The prices of CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat main - continuous contracts all increased, with the CBOT wheat main - continuous contract having the largest increase of 2.06%. The import prices of US corn from the Gulf of Mexico and the West Coast have also increased slightly, and both have import profits [1][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The release of the "14th Five-Year Plan" draft and the phased consensus reached in the China-US economic and trade consultations will reduce the impact of tariff policies on the market, enhance market risk appetite, and promote the return of relevant assets to fundamental pricing. However, the China-US trade friction is a long - term battle, and continuous attention is needed on policy implementation and long - term game dynamics [2]. - The marginal decline of China's manufacturing PMI indicates weakening supply and demand, and subsequent economic development requires policy support. Overseas, after the US interest rate cut, the market will focus on employment and inflation during the US government shutdown, especially ADP data, as well as the end time of the shutdown [2]. - For various commodities, different market trends and investment suggestions are presented, such as precious metals entering a short - term adjustment phase, copper price decline being limited due to increased interest rate cut expectations, and aluminum price increase being driven by speculative funds [13][16][19]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Pay attention to US employment data. Signs of cooling in the US job market are emerging, with the number of corporate layoffs reaching a new high since 2020. The US 10 - month ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. The euro - zone 10 - month manufacturing PMI was 50, with Germany and France continuing to contract [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - Continue to focus on the performance around 7.10. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1225 on November 3, down 90 points from the previous trading day. It is expected that the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, and the key technical point around 7.10 will be the focus of the long - short battle [3]. Stock Index - The long lower shadow indicates support below, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Yesterday, the stock index first declined and then rose, and all closed up. The trading volume of the two markets declined. Futures contracts showed different trends. Due to the recent light news, the market is mainly driven by capital games. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see, and pay attention to the US employment data to be released this week [4][6]. Treasury Bonds - Maintain a long - term bullish view. On Monday, bond futures generally declined, with TS having a significant decline and other varieties slightly fluctuating downwards. The capital market is loose. The bond market has basically priced in the central bank's bond purchases, and the lack of trading hotspots in the short term. It is recommended to maintain a long - term position but not to chase high [6]. Container Shipping to Europe - The spot index correction puts pressure on the price, and the futures price will continue to fluctuate at a high level. The market is affected by both long and short factors. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to adopt a range - trading strategy [7][9][10]. Commodities Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - Continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The decline in interest rate cut expectations is slight. Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will push up the price of precious metals, it is currently in a short - term adjustment phase. It is recommended to pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities on dips and hold existing long - term positions cautiously [13][14][16]. Copper - The weakening of the US manufacturing PMI drags down employment prospects, increasing interest rate cut expectations and limiting the decline of copper prices. It is recommended to pay attention to support and pressure levels, volatility - related strategies, and use option - futures combination strategies for downstream and upstream enterprises [16][17][18]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum prices are driven up by speculative funds. Currently, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market is in the transition between peak and off - peak seasons, with weak demand and stable supply. Alumina prices are expected to be weak due to supply surplus, and casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [18][19][21]. Zinc - Be vigilant against short - squeeze risks. The zinc price is strong, and there may be a short - squeeze in the LME. The smelting end has a strong willingness to cut production in November, and there is an upward driving force in November. It is recommended to wait and see exports and the macro situation [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fluctuate repeatedly with limited driving forces. The fundamentals and spot market are under pressure, and the 12 - month interest rate cut expectation is uncertain. It is necessary to pay attention to the new year's quota approval progress for nickel ore and the actual situation of stainless steel production cuts [22][23]. Tin - Fluctuate at a high level. The technical resistance level at 290,000 is stable. The supply is weaker than demand, and it is recommended to hold long positions for those who have entered the market and continue to observe for those who have not [24]. Lithium Carbonate - Adjust in a range. The demand of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase, which will support the futures price. [25] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly due to enterprise production cuts in the dry season, but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon's spot market is weak, and the fundamentals are bearish [26][27]. Lead - Fluctuate in a narrow range. The high lead price makes downstream acceptance low, and the market has an expectation of future lead ingot shortage. It is recommended to use option - selling strategies to earn premiums [28]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Adjust in a range. Last week, the prices first rose and then fell. With the implementation of macro - positive factors, the price increase needs new stimuli. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil has increased slightly, and the demand is entering the off - season. It is expected to adjust in a range [29]. Iron Ore - The arrival volume has surged. The supply is abundant, and the demand is under pressure. The price increase is limited, and it is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities after the valuation is repaired [30][31]. Coking Coal and Coke - The tight supply situation has not improved. The coking coal inventory structure has improved, and the third round of coke price increase has been proposed. The demand for coal and coke is relatively stable in the short term. It is recommended to use coal and coke as long - position varieties in the black metal sector [32][33]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Return to the weak fundamentals and adjust in a range. The high inventory and weak demand coexist. The production profit is declining, and the demand is expected to decrease. It is expected to adjust in a range [33][34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Fluctuate horizontally. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the focus is on the OPEC+ meeting. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of $60 - 65 this week, with limited upward and downward breakthrough possibilities [37][38]. LPG - Fluctuate. The supply is increasing, and the chemical demand may decline. The short - term upward driving force is limited [39][40]. PTA - PX - The "anti - involution" rumor boosts sentiment, and the processing fee is repaired at a low level. PX supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and PTA supply and demand have improved marginally. It is expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost, but the PTA surplus expectation remains [41][42][43]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The demand has improved marginally, but the valuation is under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - sentiment in the range of 3800 - 4200. It is recommended to use option - selling and short - selling strategies [45][46][47]. Methanol - The 01 contract may continue to decline. The delay of the Iranian gas - restriction expectation and the increase in inventory lead to the decline. It is recommended to hold existing short - call positions [48][49]. PP - The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged. The supply pressure is difficult to relieve fundamentally, and the demand support is limited. It is expected to continue the weak trend [50][51][52]. PE - The driving force is limited, and it will fluctuate weakly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand support is weak. The pattern of supply - strong and demand - weak is difficult to change. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - changes [54][55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - After the macro - factors are digested, they will fluctuate at a low level. Pure benzene is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and styrene has high inventory and de - stocking pressure. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [56][58][59]. Fuel Oil - The crack spread weakens. The high - sulfur fuel oil is in a situation of strong expectation and weak reality, and it is recommended to be bearish on the high - sulfur crack spread [60]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The crack spread strengthens. The improvement of China - US relations and the expectation of supply shortage boost the market [61]. Asphalt - Continue to decline. The supply has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory structure has improved. It is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling after the futures price reaches the pressure level [62][63]. Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The supply and demand are under pressure, and they will fluctuate weakly with the sector. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is limited. It is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in a wide range [64]. Urea - Fluctuate weakly. The supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is weak. It is expected to face pressure in the future [65][66]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash: The supply is expected to remain high, and the price is restricted by high inventory but supported by cost [67]. - Glass: The inventory is declining, but the influence of the coal - to - gas project in Shahe is limited. The game may continue until near the delivery [68]. - Caustic soda: The production is returning, and the market pressure is increasing. The price is restricted by high profit and long - term production capacity expansion [69][70]. Pulp and Offset Paper - The paper price increase is implemented, and the futures price rises. The supply pressure of pulp is slightly reduced, and the demand is mixed. The price of offset paper is expected to be positively affected by the price increase of some enterprises. It is expected to fluctuate or fluctuate slightly strongly in the short term [70][71]. Logs - The spot price in Lanshan continues to decline, and the weak trend continues. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The deepening of the discount in the 11 - 01 contract is worthy of attention [72][73][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the natural rubber market is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation. RU has low valuation and cost - side support but weak buying, while dark - colored rubbers like 20 - gauge rubber rely on downstream demand. In the medium - to - long - term, it is regarded as neutrally bearish due to supply pressure and uncertain demand [1][2] - The market has shifted from macro - driven to fundamentals - driven pricing. The current fundamentals show mixed signals, with some positive factors in the upstream and downstream but also significant supply and demand pressures [1] - Trade policies and international situations pose risks to the long - term demand for rubber, and downstream tire enterprises may restructure the supply - demand distribution of rubber [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Short - term: After the initial rise, rubber prices retraced due to the fading of macro - positive sentiment. The fundamentals show that although RU has cost - side support, the buying is weak, and 20 - gauge rubber depends on downstream demand. The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, dragging down the price of the rubber system [1] - Medium - to - long - term: The global total production capacity cycle has not fully peaked, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand needs continuous macro - positive support, and the export growth faces risks such as international situations and trade barriers [1][2] - Proximal trading: The price difference between Indonesian standard rubber and other standard rubbers has widened slightly, providing some support to NR. The risk of near - month delivery is small, but there is still an anti - arbitrage space for some standard rubbers [7] - Distal trading: The weather in production areas has improved, and the supply is expected to increase. The inventory in Qingdao has started to accumulate, increasing the supply pressure. The macro situation still has uncertainties, and the long - term demand may lead to a restructuring of the rubber supply - demand distribution [10] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range**: The short - term reference oscillation range for RU2601 is 14800 - 15400; for NR2511, it is 12000 - 12400 [15] - **Trend Judgement**: It is expected to maintain an oscillation, with the fundamentals as the main pricing factor. The support for RU01 is around 14600, and the pressure is around 15600; for NR12, the support is around 11800 [15] - **Strategy Recommendations**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, consider small - scale long - position trading when RU01 stabilizes. For hedging, combine with protective options or consider a long - volatility strategy. For basis trading, consider reverse arbitrage for some varieties. For calendar spread arbitrage, hold long - spread positions for RU and consider long - spread positions for NR11 - 01. For variety arbitrage, consider widening the spread at low levels [16] 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Forecast**: The price range for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14800 - 15700, and for 20 - gauge rubber NR, it is 11900 - 12900 [22] - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management, when the inventory is high, short - sell rubber futures, buy out - of - the - money put options, and sell call options. For procurement management, when the inventory is low, buy long - term rubber futures and out - of - the - money call options, and sell put options [22] 3.2 Important Information and Attention Events 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US API and EIA crude oil inventories decreased, the Sino - US economic and trade consultations achieved results, the global automotive supporting demand was good, the Fed cut interest rates, the "15th Five - Year Plan" policies were introduced, and the demand for winter snow tires increased [24][25][26] - **Negative Information**: The Fed's decision on future interest rate cuts is uncertain, the increase in rubber prices has brought supply - demand pressure, the manufacturing PMI in China declined, the tire and automobile inventories are under pressure, and the weather may have a certain impact on production [27] 3.2.2 This Week's Attention Focus - Monitor the rainfall in production areas, changes in dry - rubber social inventory, downstream tire start - up conditions, and important macro data such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI and China's PPI and CPI reports [28] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: Last week, rubber prices first rebounded and then declined. RU and NR found support at around 15000 and 12000 respectively. The liquidity problem of 20 - gauge rubber has been alleviated, and the spot price is still stronger than the disk price. RU's position remained flat, while NR's position continued to decrease [29] - **Capital Trend**: Since last Thursday, the short positions of RU and NR have increased, and the net positions have decreased [32] 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - **Spot Price Changes**: Last Friday, most spot prices fell, except for the increase in the price of whole milk latex. Among standard rubbers, the price of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [35] - **Basis Structure**: The spread between whole milk latex and smoked sheet rubber narrowed, the basis of whole milk latex remained flat, and the basis of smoked sheet rubber decreased. The basis of some standard rubbers rebounded, and the term structure of NR has changed from a deep back to a shallower one [37][42] - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The calendar spread structure of RU changed little, and the center of gravity moved up slightly. The price of NR decreased, and the back structure became shallower, reflecting weak market expectations [42] - **External Market Conditions**: The price of Thai smoked sheet rubber increased, driving the near - month contracts of Japanese RSS3 to strengthen, and the monthly spread structure became flatter. The price and structure of Singapore TSR20 rubber changed little [48] - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index**: Recently, the sentiment in the rubber market has fluctuated greatly. The bullish sentiment rose and then fell last week, and the demand sentiment for downstream tires was weak. The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU continued to rise, while that of NR decreased [57] - **Variety Spread Analysis**: The spread between light - colored and dark - colored rubbers widened and then stabilized. The spread between natural and synthetic rubbers increased and then corrected, dragging down the price of natural rubber [60][64] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw Material Cost**: Last week, rainfall in Hainan, Yunnan, and southern Thailand affected the supply, and raw material prices were firm. The price difference between water and cup in Thailand rebounded [66] - **Processing Profit - Domestic Rubber**: The delivery profit of whole milk latex and the profit of TSR9710 both decreased significantly [73] - **Processing Profit - Imported Rubber**: The overall center of rubber prices moved up last week. The import profit of Thai smoked sheet rubber remained flat, while the profits of 20 - gauge standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber decreased [75] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Production in Major Producing Countries**: The supply of natural rubber in major producing countries is expected to increase, and the weather in some areas has improved, which is conducive to production [10] - **Import Situation**: In September, the import of natural and synthetic rubber in China increased steadily. The import of Thai standard rubber decreased, while the import of Thai mixed rubber increased significantly [79] 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Total Demand in Major Producing Countries**: In August, the actual consumption of natural rubber in China remained stable year - on - year, while the demand in major producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia declined [86] - **Tire Production and Sales**: The demand for winter snow tires has increased, and most tire enterprises' start - up rates have remained stable. The inventory of semi - steel tires has decreased, while that of all - steel tires has increased slightly. The export of domestic tires has shown strong resilience but has declined month - on - month [91] - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry has been stable, but the slowdown in fixed - asset investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand in the long term [96] - **Supporting Demand**: Domestic automobile sales have performed well, and the supporting demand for tires is expected to remain resilient. However, the long - term increase in the demand for truck - related tires may be limited [98][99] - **Overseas Tire Production**: Japan's tire production has remained stable overall, with strong performance in all - steel tires and a year - on - year decrease in semi - steel tires. Thailand's tire shipment index has increased year - on - year [102] - **Overseas Tire Demand**: US tire imports have increased despite the decline in automobile sales. The production and sales of European passenger cars have been stable, and the production of commercial vehicles has decreased. The automobile production in Japan and South Korea has shown different trends [104] - **Demand for Other Rubber Products**: The start - up rate of domestic conveyor belts has weakened, while that of rubber tubes is slightly higher than that of last year [111] 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: Affected by the weather, the RU warehouse receipts have continued to decline, while the NR warehouse receipts have increased due to stable imports and weak downstream procurement [116] - **Social Inventory**: As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has increased, with a decrease in bonded - area inventory and an increase in general - trade inventory [118]

国债期货日报 2025/11/3 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行政策操作 盘面点评： 周一期债整体下跌，TS跌幅较为显著，其余品种震荡微跌。资金面宽松，DR001在1.31%附近。公开市场逆 回购783亿，净回笼2590亿。 重要资讯： 1.潘功胜：研究和储备应对宏观经济、金融市场波动等领域的政策工具；持续整治金融业"内卷式"竞争、资金 空转；不断增强央行政策利率的作用，收窄短期利率走廊的宽度。 2.证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准指引（征求意见稿）》，基金业协会同步发布《公开募集 证券投资基金业绩比较基准操作细则（征求意见稿）》。 行情研判： 今日股债继续独立运行，午后A股回升未对债市造成影响。目前债市对央行购债基本定价完毕，消息面较为清 淡导致短期缺乏交易热点。关注随后发布的经济数据是否带来一定的交易动力。操作上维持多头思路，中期 多单继续持有，短期不追高，等待回落做多。 国债期货日度数据 | | 2025-11-03 | 2025-10-31 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-11-03 | 2025-10-31 | 今 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Today, pulp futures prices showed a wide - range oscillation, while offset paper futures prices opened with a significant increase and then maintained an oscillation. In the spot market, pulp prices in some paper mills increased slightly, and the supply - side pressure eased due to partial mill maintenance. The downstream paper - using开工率 (operating rates) showed mixed trends, and cultural paper consumption did not continue the positive year - on - year growth in August. Port inventories remained relatively high, restricting pulp prices. For offset paper, some companies raised their quotes, which was favorable for futures prices. Overall, pulp and offset paper may be relatively oscillatory or slightly bullish in the short term [4]. - For pulp, the strategy is to go long at low prices or wait and see in the futures market, and sell out - of - the - money put options on far - month contracts in the options market. For offset paper, it is recommended to wait and see in both the futures and options markets [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for pulp is predicted to be 4750 - 5350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.19% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 16.95%. For offset paper, the price range is 4150 - 4350, with a volatility of 7.96% and a historical percentile of 39.39% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short pulp/offset paper futures (e.g., SP2601 at 5400 - 5500 and OP2601 at 4350 - 4400) to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (e.g., SP2601C5300 and OP2601C4400) when volatility is appropriate to reduce costs and lock in selling prices [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For paper - making enterprises with low inventory, they can buy pulp/offset paper futures (e.g., SP2601 at 4950 - 5050 and OP2601 at 4100 - 4150) to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (e.g., SP2512P4850 and OP2601P4050) when volatility is appropriate to reduce procurement costs and lock in buying prices [3]. 3.2 Core Contradiction - **Futures Price Movement**: Pulp futures prices oscillated widely, and offset paper futures prices opened higher and then oscillated [4]. - **Spot Price**: Pulp spot prices in some regions increased by 30 - 70 yuan/ton, and some offset paper companies raised their quotes by 100 - 200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side pressure eased due to mill maintenance, downstream operating rates showed mixed trends, cultural paper consumption did not continue the growth in August, and port inventories were relatively high, restricting pulp prices. For offset paper, price increases by some companies were favorable for futures prices, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - Paper companies raised the quotes of various types of paper, the Fed has a rate - cut expectation, and overseas broad - leaf pulp production shifted, reduced, and prices rose [7][12] 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - There is a possibility of a decrease in overseas shipping costs, port inventories are high and difficult to reduce, and downstream demand is weak during the peak season [12] 3.5 Basis and Price Difference - **Pulp Basis**: The daily and weekly changes in pulp basis for different varieties and contracts are provided, and the seasonal chart of pulp basis (Shandong Yinxing) is also presented [9][10]. - **Offset Paper Basis**: The daily and weekly changes in offset paper basis for different contracts are provided [9][10]. - **Futures Price and Spread**: The closing prices, daily and weekly changes, and price differences of pulp and offset paper futures contracts are given [15]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: The spot prices and regional spreads of pulp and offset paper are provided [16].