Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The trading focus of the current soybean meal futures lies in whether the 53 bushels/acre yield of US soybeans on the external market will continue to decline, and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases announced by the US can be reflected in the annual balance sheet. If the inventory level remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will continue to fluctuate around the cost line. The domestic soybean meal lacks a clear single - sided driver. In the near - term, it will price in the seasonal de - stocking logic and be stronger, while the far - term will be pressured by Brazilian supply and remain weak, with the long - near positive spread logic continuing [4]. - The rapeseed meal futures will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. There is an expectation of additional negotiations between China and Canada, and Australian rapeseed will arrive after November. The subsequent demand increase is limited, and supply is expected to recover. The coastal and oil - mill rapeseed meal inventories remain high, and it is generally regarded as weak. Attention can be paid to the new warehouse receipt registration after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [4]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.1%. The monthly price range of rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.3% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 24.4% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Trade merchants with high protein inventory can short 25% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans can short 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The external market focuses on the supply - side yield adjustment and the realization of Chinese purchases in the balance sheet. The domestic market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern due to seasonal de - stocking in the near - term and Brazilian supply pressure in the far - term [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It remains in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. There are additional negotiation expectations between China and Canada, and Australian rapeseed arrivals will limit demand growth and increase supply expectations. Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt registration after November [4]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices. The external market's strength in pricing US soybean purchases and the inability of the domestic market to purchase commercial US soybeans maintain the firmness of the domestic market. The centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in the near - month eases the pressure [8]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in the near - term, and the seasonal decline in soybean meal inventory. The smooth planting in Brazil and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America suppress the far - month prices. The supply gap in the far - term is repaired under the background of Sino - US negotiations and purchases [6][9]. 3.4 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices, daily changes, and price change rates of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as CBOT yellow soybeans and the offshore RMB, are provided [10]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between different soybean meal and rapeseed meal contracts, as well as the basis and spot - futures spreads, are presented [11]. - **Import Costs and Profits**: The import costs, daily and weekly changes, and import profits of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans, as well as the import profits of Canadian rapeseed, are given [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Pay attention to the central bank's policy operations. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain volatile, while in the medium - term, there is still room for an upward trend supported by the fundamentals. Mid - term long positions should be held, and short - term long positions at low levels can be closed at high prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Tuesday, bond futures continued the volatile pattern, with all varieties closing higher. The capital market remained tight, with DR001 around 1.53%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 407.5 billion yuan, with a net investment of 370 million yuan [1] 3.2. Important Information - Trump's chief economic advisor Hassett stated that AI's productivity improvement might lead to a "quiet period" in the job market, and the Fed should be truly "data - driven". The Fed governor Waller, a potential candidate for the Fed chair, supports a rate cut in December, while Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson emphasizes a cautious and slow - paced policy [2] 3.3. Market Analysis - The A - share market continued to weaken with a large adjustment amplitude today, but the bond market benefited little. Affected by the tax period, the capital market remained tight. With a lack of clear signals from monetary policy and light news, the market still lacks a strong driving force [3] 3.4. Trading Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: TS2512 closed at 102.49, up 0.012 from the previous day; TF2512 at 105.91, up 0.02; T2512 at 108.495, up 0.03; TL2512 at 116.57, up 0.11 [6] - **Contract Positions and Changes**: TS contract positions increased by 925 to 83,687 hands; TF contract positions decreased by 1,178 to 158,973 hands; T contract positions decreased by 164 to 285,339 hands; TL contract positions increased by 563 to 185,923 hands [6] - **Contract Transactions and Changes**: TS main contract transactions increased by 2,388 to 34,723 hands; TF main contract transactions increased by 3,133 to 51,916 hands; T main contract transactions increased by 1,244 to 63,673 hands; TL main contract transactions increased by 1,158 to 89,428 hands [6] - **Basis and Changes**: TS basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0276 to - 0.0256; TF basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0266 to - 0.014; T basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0317 to 0.081; TL basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0414 to 0.0942 [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The ferroalloy market is facing a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with production profits gradually declining. The market has low expectations for further production increases. The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is at a high level. The cost center of ferroalloys may move down due to the impact of coking coal supply guarantee, but the downward space is limited. It is expected that the ferroalloy will fluctuate weakly [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.73% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 29.5%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 10.99% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.9% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 5200 - 5300, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Market Review and Core Logic - **Market Review**: Yesterday, ferroalloys rebounded slightly due to environmental inspection news, rising with a reduction in positions. Today, they followed the decline of coking coal, and the high - inventory situation remains unchanged. The view of weak fluctuations is maintained [4]. - **Core Logic**: The steel mill profitability rate has continued to decline, falling below 40%. The molten iron output has slightly decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in the future. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The inventory of the five major steel products has increased more than seasonally, and the ferroalloy's own inventory is also at a high level. The production profits of ferroalloys are gradually declining, and the market has low expectations for further production increases. The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years. The inventory of silicomanganese enterprises has continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 10.3%, and that of ferrosilicon enterprises has increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The inventory pressure is large. Ferrosilicon production has started to decrease this week, and silicomanganese production has decreased for multiple consecutive weeks. The downstream demand is gradually weakening, and inventory reduction may still depend on production cuts [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Ferrosilicon production started to decrease this week, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%, and silicomanganese continued its production - reduction trend. In October, the magnesium ingot production increased by 21.96% month - on - month [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: The steel peak season was not prosperous, the steel mill profit rate fell below 40%, and the negative feedback pressure was gradually increasing. The coil and plate segment is still in a situation of high inventory and high production. Although the production has decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. There is no driving force on the consumption side, and the inventory has increased more than seasonally, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. Recently, Thailand has launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates. The inventory of silicomanganese enterprises has continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 10.3%, and that of ferrosilicon enterprises has increased by 3.3% month - on - month, with large inventory pressure [8][10]. 3.5 Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon Daily Data**: On November 18, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 26, the 01 - 05 spread was - 10, etc. The spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1141 week - on - week [8]. - **Silicomanganese Daily Data**: On November 18, 2025, the silicomanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270, the 01 - 05 spread was - 66, etc. The spot prices in different regions decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1750 week - on - week [9][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current cotton harvest in Xinjiang is basically complete, with the daily inspection volume increasing to around 100,000 tons, leading to a significant rise in domestic cotton inventory and increasing short - term supply pressure. The downstream demand is somewhat resilient but currently shows general performance. The cotton price may fluctuate weakly in the short term, and investors should wait for macro - economic recovery and focus on reverse - spread opportunities [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - The monthly cotton price is predicted to be in the range of 13,300 - 13,800, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0401 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0064 [2] - For inventory management with high inventory, to prevent losses from inventory and price drops, the company can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 13,700 - 13,800, and sell call options (CF601C13800) with a 75% hedging ratio at a range of 250 - 300 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price [2] - For procurement management with low inventory, to prevent cost increases from price hikes, the company can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 13,300 - 13,400, and sell put options (CF601P13400) with a 50% hedging ratio at a range of 150 - 200 to collect premiums and lock in the buying price [2] 3.2 Core Contradictions - The cotton harvest in Xinjiang is almost finished, daily inspection volume has increased, and domestic cotton inventory has risen. The downstream gauze factory load is stable, but the restocking intensity is weak. The domestic demand has some resilience, and there is still a rigid restocking demand for raw materials [3] - The current supply pressure is increasing, there is still hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800, and the demand is average, so the upward momentum of cotton price is lacking [3] 3.3利多Interpretation - In October, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles in China were 147.1 billion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 19.54% and a year - on - year increase of 9.21%. The yarn mills' raw material inventory is low, and there is a rigid restocking demand for cotton [4] - In October 2025, China's cotton imports were 90,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. The cumulative imports in the 25/26 season were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.4% [4] - Sino - US negotiations have improved market expectations for future trade, and the overall sentiment has warmed up [4] 3.4利空Interpretation - The new - season cotton output has increased year - on - year, there is significant hedging pressure above the cotton price, and the domestic cotton inventory has rebounded rapidly. As of the end of October, the domestic industrial and commercial cotton inventory was 3.8188 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 109,000 tons and an increase of 338,500 tons compared to the five - year average [5] - In October 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 22.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.59% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%, indicating weak downstream demand [5] 3.5 Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices and Spreads - Cotton 01 closed at 13,490, down 25 (- 0.18%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,495, down 30 (- 0.22%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,670, down 35 (- 0.26%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,790, unchanged (0%); Cotton yarn 05 and 09 were both 0, down 100% [6] - The cotton basis was 1,329, down 7; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was - 5, up 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was - 175, up 5; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was 180, down 10; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,290, up 10; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,957, up 64; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 520, unchanged [6] 3.6 Internal and External Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 14,789, down 12 (- 0.08%); CCI 2227B was 12,964, down 5 (- 0.04%); CCI 2129B was 15,048, down 12 (- 0.08%); FCI Index S was 13,004, down 18 (- 0.14%); FCI Index M was 12,827, down 17 (- 0.13%); FCI Index L was 12,517, down 17 (- 0.14%) [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The structural contradiction in the glass industry still exists. The reduction in glass supply is insufficient to change the oversupply situation, and high inventory in the middle - stream puts great pressure on the 01 contract. The expectation of glass cold - repair is rising again, which is negative for the rigid demand of soda ash, but the cost side is relatively firm [2]. - There is no unexpected excessive production reduction on the supply side. The upper and middle - stream inventories of glass and soda ash are high, and the downstream's ability to absorb is questionable. As the off - season approaches, the spot pressure continues to increase [4][7]. - Currently, the position of the glass 01 contract is at a high level, and the game may continue until near the delivery. The glass 01 contract is expected to decline in the end, but the decline may occur near the delivery. Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Although the cost expectation is solid, without production reduction, its valuation has no upward elasticity. The high overall inventory in the upper and middle - stream restricts the price of soda ash, which is expected to be weak in oscillation [7]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 900 - 1200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.36% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 46.3%. The monthly price range forecast for soda ash is 1100 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.89% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 11.0% [1]. 2. Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high glass product inventory worried about price decline, they can short glass futures (FG2601) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is 1250. They can also sell call options (FG601C1200) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in profits and reduce costs [1]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low glass procurement inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy glass futures (FG2601) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is 900 - 950. They can also sell put options (FG601P900) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in the procurement cost [1]. Soda Ash - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high soda ash product inventory worried about price decline, they can short soda ash futures (SA2601) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is 1250 - 1300. They can also sell call options (SA601C1300) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in profits and reduce costs [1]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low soda ash procurement inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy soda ash futures (SA2601) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is 1100 - 1150. They can also sell put options (SA601P1100) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in the procurement cost [1]. 3. Price and Spread Data Glass - **Futures Price**: On November 18, 2025, the price of the glass 05 contract was 1151 (down 14 or 1.2% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1232 (down 10 or 0.81%), and the 01 contract was 1017 (down 12 or 1.17%) [8]. - **Futures Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread was - 81 (down 4), the 9 - 1 spread was 215 (up 2), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 134 (up 2) [8]. - **Spot Price**: The average price of glass in Shahe on November 18, 2025, was 1073 (down 12 from the previous day). The prices in different regions also showed some declines [9]. Soda Ash - **Futures Price**: On November 18, 2025, the price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1287 (down 17 or 1.3% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1352 (down 22 or 1.6%), and the 01 contract was 1214 (down 17 or 1.38%) [10]. - **Futures Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread was - 65 (up 5 or - 7.14%), the 9 - 1 spread was 138 (down 5 or - 3.5%), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 73 (unchanged) [10]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were mostly stable on November 18, 2025, except for a 22 - yuan decline in the heavy - soda price in Shahe [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The stock index continued to adjust today, with relatively large declines in small and medium - cap stock indices. The market is currently dominated by the game between policy - driven positive expectations and the increasing willingness of funds to take profits. In the short - term, the news is relatively flat, and the signal of favorable policies is weakening, increasing the pressure for index correction. The decline in the Asia - Pacific market today has further increased the downward pressure on A - shares. The previously strong chemical and battery sectors have corrected, while the AI sector has strengthened, showing a high - to - low rotation. The basis of stock index futures shows differentiation. For IF, except for the next - quarter contract whose basis declined, the basis of other contracts converged. The basis of IH contracts declined, while the basis of IC and IM contracts rebounded significantly, breaking away from the historical percentile below 10%. The basis of stock index futures of stock indices with large declines for two consecutive days has strengthened significantly. Coupled with the slight rebound of the index in the late trading today, it indicates that there is support below, and the market sentiment is not completely pessimistic. In general, it is expected to continue to adjust in the short - term, but the expectation of favorable policies provides support at the bottom, and the downward space of the stock index is limited [5]. Market Review - The stock indices closed down collectively today, with the large - cap stock indices relatively more resilient. For example, the CSI 300 index closed down 0.65%. In terms of funds, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 1.5277 billion yuan. In the stock index futures market, IH declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties declined with increasing volume [3]. Important Information - The China - Germany High - Level Financial Dialogue was held in Beijing, reaching a number of achievements and consensuses, ending the trade tension. The favorite candidate for the Fed Chairman, Fed Governor Waller, supports a rate cut in December, while Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson emphasizes a cautious and slow - paced policy [4]. Strategy Recommendation Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -0.41 | -0.23 | -0.85 | -0.69 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 12.1863 | 5.4759 | 13.444 | 21.7767 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | 0.7571 | -0.2437 | 1.7523 | 2.044 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.8688 | 9.7691 | 25.4019 | 36.202 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | 0.5967 | -0.3423 | 0.8185 | 0.6867 | [6] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.81 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.92 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.31 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 1926.068 | | Trading volume change (100 million yuan) | 1.5277 | [7]

周甫翰 （投资咨询证号 Z0020173） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁矿石12合约月度价格预测（11月） | 价格预测区间 | 当前平值期权IV | 历史波动率分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 770-826 | 18.07% | 11.3% | 铁矿石风险管理报告 2025/11/18 source： 南华研究 1.可交割的主流中高品粉矿港口库存持续走低，支撑近月合约和基差 2. 美国政府重新开门，财政力量回归 3.钢厂边际减产，黑色产业链矛盾边际有所缓解 4.在钢厂利润低迷时，主要原料焦煤价格大跌，为铁矿石价格腾出了空间，形成了短期支撑 【利空因素】 铁矿石风险管理策略建议（11月） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 风险敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | | 买卖方向 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 目前有现货，担心未来库存跌价 | 多 | 直接做空铁矿期货锁定利润 | I2512 | 空 | 25% | 820-830 | | | | | ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint - Last week, methanol prices continued to decline as the fundamental situation of the 01 contract couldn't provide support. Although there was a rebound due to factors like plant shutdowns and gas restrictions, the increasing shipments from Iran made it difficult to relieve the pressure on ports. Even with the strong upward trend of thermal coal prices, it was still hard to support the cost of methanol in Henan. Considering the higher - than - average temperature in Iran, gas restrictions might be delayed until mid - November. The 11 - month shipments exceeded expectations, and port inventories were likely to remain high. The regional price difference indicated that the port would continue to flow back to Shandong, and then the Henan market would decline. Therefore, the 01 contract of methanol might continue to decline to find support. It was recommended to hold the previously sold call options and conduct a 12 - 1 reverse spread [6]. Section Summaries Methanol Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. Methanol Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When there is a risk of price decline and high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short methanol futures (MA2601, sell, 25% hedging ratio, entry range 2250 - 2350). They can also buy put options (MA2601P2250, buy, 50% hedging ratio) to prevent large price drops and sell call options (MA2601C2350, sell, 45 - 60) to reduce capital costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising procurement costs, enterprises can buy methanol futures (MA2601, buy, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2450 - 2550). They can also sell put options (MA2601P2300, sell, 75% hedging ratio, 20 - 25) to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the methanol price drops [3]. Market Analysis - **Supply and Demand**: The increase in Iranian shipments has put pressure on the 01 port contract. Although the increase in port inventory is limited recently, most of it is in floating storage, and the inventory is likely to remain high. The regional price difference shows that the port will flow back to Shandong, and then the Henan market will decline [6]. - **Cost**: Even if the thermal coal price in the northern port rises to 900, it is still difficult to support the cost of methanol in Henan [6]. - **Inventory Forecast**: This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, so the port methanol inventory is expected to increase [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil market, and the market is running weakly. It is necessary to wait for the US energy policy and further news about Indonesia's B50 to boost the market. The strategy is mainly to stay on the sidelines. For the far - month P05 contract, there may be an opportunity to go long as palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction season and the Ramadan in Southeast Asia is earlier next year. It is also advisable to be bullish on the expanding spreads between rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils and the P1 - 5 reverse spread [2]. - The current core contradictions in the oil market include the digestion of palm oil inventory pressure in producing areas, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, and the game between the weak domestic reality and international expectations [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Palm oil**: In the October MPOB report, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by over 11%, inventory by over 4%, and exports by over 18%. With the entry into the production - reduction season, the cost - performance of palm oil is expected to increase. The B50 plan in Indonesia has uncertainties, and there are also limitations on production due to the transfer of plantation ownership [1]. - **Soybean and rapeseed oils**: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. The resumption of US soybean purchases may increase domestic supply pressure. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to be tight due to the less - optimistic China - Canada talks [2]. - **Domestic situation**: The overall supply of the three major domestic oils is sufficient in the short term, but there will be a slow destocking at the end of the year, and there are short - term strength - weakness relationships within the sector [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Short - term shock adjustment, with the possibility of the price center rising in the medium term. The price ranges are P2601 [8400 - 9000], Y2601 [8000 - 8500], and OI [9300 - 10000]. Pay attention to the far - month rebound opportunity of palm oil [15]. - **Technical analysis**: Go long on the P05 contract on dips, and be bullish on the expanding spreads between rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [15]. - **Basis, monthly spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The basis is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Consider a reverse spread for P1 - 5. Be bullish on the expanding spreads between rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [16][17]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range prediction**: The price range for soybean oil is 8000 - 8500, and for rapeseed oil is 9300 - 10300 [18]. - **Hedging strategies**: Traders with high oil inventories can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits. Refineries with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills can short soybean oil futures to prevent losses from high - inventory imports [20]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: In October, the US soybean crushing volume far exceeded market expectations, reaching a record high [24]. - **Negative information**: The November USDA report was slightly negative for the US soybean market. Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 15 decreased, and the inventory increased [25]. - **Spot trading information**: The trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil decreased, while that of rapeseed oil increased [26]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, MPOB data, the progress of the US small refinery exemption re - allocation decision, and the progress of China - Canada trade negotiations [35] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Domestic Market - **Unilateral trend**: The oil market was mainly in shock this week. Although the market sentiment is bearish, the downward space is limited due to uncertain factors such as the US energy policy and the approaching production - reduction season in producing areas [31]. - **Fund movement**: Positions in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were cautious. Palm oil had a slight increase in short positions from foreign investors and retail investors, and weak long - position confidence. Soybean oil's positions changed little, and foreign short - positions in rapeseed oil decreased slightly. Rapeseed oil's long - positions decreased due to the expected easing of China - Canada relations [32]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The soybean and rapeseed oil markets showed a Back structure, which became shallower this week. The palm oil market had a complex structure, with 05 being the strongest and 09 relatively weak [33][36]. - **Basis structure**: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to be weak due to high domestic inventory and general downstream demand [33]. - **Spread structure**: The spreads between soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils strengthened, and the rapeseed - soybean spread rebounded slightly. Rapeseed oil remained strong in the sector, while palm oil was the weakest [53]. 3.3.2 Overseas Market - The overseas market was mainly in shock. The negative factors in palm - oil producing areas were temporarily exhausted. The US soybean market was affected by the slightly negative November USDA report. The cost of US soybeans supported the soybean oil market, and the supply gap of rapeseed oil made it stronger than palm oil [56]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The POGO and BOHO spreads continued to decline. The price of palm oil in producing areas was weakly volatile, and the production cost of bio - fuel decreased slightly. The cost of producing biodiesel from US soybean oil remained at a multi - year low [64]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - As China is a net importer of palm oil, the import profit changed slightly with the low - level consolidation of the origin price, and there were few new purchases under the negative basis [67]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side Deduction - **Palm oil**: With the negative basis, traders' purchasing willingness is low. During the production - reduction season at the end of the year, the supply pressure is not expected to increase, and the driving force from the producing areas may be reflected in the 05 contract [72]. - **Soybean oil**: The arrival of raw materials will decline in December, the crushing volume may decrease, and the supply pressure will gradually ease [72]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The current domestic inventory is high, but it will gradually destock in the fourth quarter. If the China - Canada relationship does not ease, there may be a supply shortage from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [72]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side Deduction - The inventory pressure of the three major oils is high in the short term, and the demand is weak. Although the fourth quarter is a traditional consumption peak season, the boost to the market after the festival stocking is limited, and the overall terminal demand is expected to remain weak [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current demand on the demand side is strong, with prices of core battery materials like lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate rising. However, there may be a seasonal decline in downstream power cell production near December, and whether energy - storage cell production can offset this decline is a key factor. Overall, the subsequent price volatility of lithium carbonate is expected to increase, and the lithium carbonate futures price this week is predicted to show a "widely fluctuating and weakly downward" trend in the range of 82,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton, with short - term correction risks [3][5]. - On the supply side, the arrival of more lithium concentrate at ports this month can ease the tight supply of lithium ore, and the release of salt - lake production capacity will continuously supplement the lithium salt market. The resumption speed of "Jianxiaowo" is a crucial variable. If its resumption exceeds market expectations, it will expand the lithium salt supply scale and potentially suppress prices [3]. - The concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of November needs attention. A significant reduction in warehouse receipts may lead to speculation in the market, directly affecting lithium carbonate prices [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Forecast and Volatility**: The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 100,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 45.5% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 78.9%. It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price this week will be in the range of 82,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton, showing a "widely fluctuating and weakly downward" trend [2][5]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 93,520 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1,680 yuan (-1.76%) and a weekly increase of 6,980 yuan (8.07%). The trading volume is 1,487,724 lots (an 8.84% daily increase and a 64.85% weekly increase), and the open interest is 484,357 lots (a 13.96% daily decrease and an 8.00% weekly decrease). Other contract spreads and warehouse receipt data also show corresponding changes [8]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore and Lithium Salt Prices**: Prices of various lithium ores such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and lithium phosphate aluminum stone have increased to varying degrees, with daily increases ranging from 0.60% to 6.13%. Lithium salt prices, including industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, have also risen, with daily increases between 1.04% and 1.49% [23]. - **Cell Material Prices**: Prices of core cell materials like lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate have increased, with the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rising by 2.48% daily [23]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract shows certain fluctuations. The average basis quotes of different brands for the LC2601 contract range from -1,600 to 0 yuan [33][34]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 26,953 lots, a decrease of 217 lots from the previous day. Warehouse receipts at different warehouses also show corresponding changes [36]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production and Import Profit**: The production profit from purchasing lithium ore to produce lithium carbonate shows a certain trend, and the import profit of lithium carbonate also has corresponding changes over time [38]. - **Theoretical Delivery Profit**: The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate fluctuates within a certain range over time [40]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies for Lithium - Battery Enterprises - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with no correlation between product prices, when worried about rising procurement costs, they can buy 10% of far - month futures contracts, sell 10% of LC2601 - P - 80,000, and use an option combination strategy (sell put options + buy call options) at a 20% ratio. For enterprises with correlated product prices, they can sell 60% of the main futures contracts according to the procurement progress and use a combination option strategy (buy put options + sell call options) at a 30% ratio [2]. - **Sales Management**: Enterprises worried about falling sales profits can sell 60% of corresponding futures contracts and use a combination option strategy (buy put options + sell call options) at a 30% ratio [2]. - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory can sell 60% of the main futures contracts and 30% of LC2601 - C - 100,000 to lock in inventory value [2].