1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strengthening of tin prices on Tuesday afternoon may be related to smelters' production cut expectations, but both macro and fundamental factors have limited impact. The US retail sales data for July met expectations. On the fundamental side, the repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has been significantly supporting tin prices and may have a continuous impact. In the short term, tin prices may remain volatile, with a stable macro environment and room for speculation on supply - side topics [3] - There are both positive and negative factors affecting tin prices. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations. Negative factors include the vacillation of tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition from an expansion to a contraction cycle [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 267,840 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three are 267,840 yuan/ton, 268,070 yuan/ton, and 268,350 yuan/ton respectively, all with a daily change of 0. The price of LME Tin 3M is 33,775 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 5 US dollars and a daily increase rate of 0.01%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.88, with a daily decrease of 0.04 and a daily decrease rate of 0.51% [6] - **Spot data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, 60A solder bar, 63A solder bar, and lead - free solder are 267,500 yuan/ton, 400 yuan/ton, 255,500 yuan/ton, 259,500 yuan/ton, 173,750 yuan/ton, 181,250 yuan/ton, and 273,250 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly decreases of 2,700 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 2,700 yuan/ton, 2,700 yuan/ton, 2,000 yuan/ton, 2,000 yuan/ton, and 3,500 yuan/ton respectively [10] 3.3 Tin Import and Processing - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 19,038.82 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 793.9 yuan and a daily increase rate of 4.35%. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore are 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [15] 3.4 Tin Inventory - The latest total warehouse receipt quantity of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,329 tons, with a daily decrease of 184 tons and a daily decrease rate of 2.45%. The warehouse receipt quantities in Guangdong and Shanghai are 5,090 tons and 1,376 tons respectively, with daily decreases of 142 tons and 36 tons and daily decrease rates of 2.71% and 2.55% respectively. The total LME tin inventory is 1,630 tons, with a daily decrease of 25 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.51% [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Technically, the short - term sentiment has improved. For London gold, the daily line shows a pattern where the bullish candle engulfs the bearish one, indicating that the bulls are in the dominant position again. For London silver, it rebounded after stopping the decline around $37. The operation strategy still maintains the idea of buying on dips [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market stopped falling and rebounded. The US dollar index fluctuated, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond declined, European and American stocks fluctuated and adjusted, crude oil prices rose, Bitcoin stopped falling, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index was weakly operating. The market is focusing on the guidance of the global central bank annual meeting on the future interest - rate cut prospects of the Federal Reserve. COMEX Gold 2512 contract closed at $3,392.2 per ounce, up 1%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.895 per ounce, up 1.51%. SHFE Gold 2510 main contract was at 772.68 yuan per gram, down 0.35%; SHFE Silver 2510 contract was at 9,042 yuan per kilogram, down 1.86%. The Fed's monetary policy meeting minutes released early Thursday highlighted internal differences within the Fed, with a hawkish tendency [2]. 3.2 Interest - rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations remained stable. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 81.9%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4 tons to 958.2 tons; the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 33.9 tons to 15,305.76 tons. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.2 tons to 1,140.2 tons; as of the week ending August 15, SGX silver inventory decreased by 17.7 tons to 1,286.8 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week's data is light. Moderate attention should be paid to the US weekly initial jobless claims, US S&P manufacturing and services PMI on Thursday night. In terms of events, the focus is on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. At 22:00 on Friday, Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech at the meeting [4]. 3.4 Price, Inventory, and Other Data - **Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE Gold main - continuous contract was at 772.68 yuan per gram, down 0.31%; SGX Gold TD was at 769.83 yuan per gram, down 0.33%; CME Gold main contract was at $3,392.2 per ounce, up 0.99%. SHFE Silver main - continuous contract was at 9,042 yuan per kilogram, down 1.58%; SGX Silver TD was at 9,022 yuan per kilogram, down 1.75%; CME Silver main contract was at $37.895 per ounce, up 1.51% [6][7]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: SHFE gold inventory was 36,582 kilograms, up 0.69%; CME gold inventory was 1,199.4695 tons, down 0.17%; SHFE gold holdings were 191,474 lots, up 0.02%; SPDR gold holdings were 958.21 tons, down 0.42%. SHFE silver inventory was 1,140.199 tons, down 0.8%; CME silver inventory was 15,816.1046 tons, up 0.07%; SGX silver inventory was 1,286.835 tons, down 1.35%; SHFE silver holdings were 318,678 lots, down 6.96%; SLV silver holdings were 15,305.763094 tons, down 0.22% [18]. - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Summary**: The US dollar index was at 98.2236, down 0.04%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was at 7.1809, down 0.08%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 44,938.31 points, up 0.04%; WTI crude oil spot was at $62.71 per barrel, up 0.58%; LmeS copper 03 was at $9,721 per ton, up 0.38%; the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was at 4.29%, down 0.23%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was at 1.94%, down 0.51%; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury bond yield spread was at 0.55%, unchanged [21].

Group 1: Financial Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Domestically, although the current economic growth shows a marginal slowdown, there's no need for excessive worry. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and if economic data continues to decline, relevant policies may be further strengthened. Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and policy signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within 7.15 - 7.23 in the short - term, with the area below 7.20 likely to be the main operating range. The US dollar index may remain volatile in the short - term, awaiting further guidance from the Jackson Hole Meeting [4]. - For stock indices, short - term market sentiment is still fluctuating, and it is expected to hover near the pressure line for some time. It is advisable to hold positions and use options for hedging [7]. - For treasury bonds, the bond market is still moving in tandem with the stock market, and the trading sentiment is weak. Conservative investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can make small - scale purchases [8]. - For container shipping, the EC is likely to continue its oscillating trend, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [11]. Summary by Directory Macro - China's August LPR quotes remained unchanged, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. The Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals, and Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1793 on the previous trading day, up 27 basis points. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most officials thought inflation risk was higher than employment risk [3]. Stock Indices - Yesterday, stock indices rose with reduced volume, and small and medium - cap stocks were relatively strong. Overnight, US stocks continued to fall, and the US dollar index declined. Foreign capital may continue to flow into A - shares, but risk appetite may decline [7]. Treasury Bonds - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures opened higher and then fluctuated, and weakened in the afternoon due to the stock market hitting a new high. The central bank announced an additional 100 billion yuan in re - loans for agriculture and small businesses [8]. Container Shipping - Yesterday, the container shipping index (European line) futures prices first oscillated slightly downward and then rebounded. Some new sailings of MSK had slightly higher spot cabin quotes [9]. Group 2: Commodities Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish. Technically, the short - term sentiment has improved, and it is advisable to buy on dips [14]. - For copper, it may continue to oscillate in the short - term, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [17]. - For aluminum, it is expected to oscillate; for alumina, it may oscillate weakly; for cast aluminum alloy, it is expected to oscillate. The price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum can be considered for arbitrage [19]. - For zinc, it is mainly expected to oscillate in the short - term [22]. - For nickel and stainless steel, they declined due to the impact of the broader market. They are affected by macro factors and the fundamentals of the industry [23]. - For tin, it is mainly expected to oscillate [25]. - For lithium carbonate, the price may rebound temporarily and then enter a weakening channel. In the long - term, it is advisable to short far - month futures contracts on rallies [26]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the demand for industrial silicon is expected to increase, and both are expected to oscillate strongly in the future [28]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to high overseas inventory [30]. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - On Wednesday, the precious metals market stopped falling and rebounded. The CME "FedWatch" data showed the probabilities of Fed interest rate decisions in September, October, and December. It is advisable to buy on dips for gold and silver [12][13][14]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index declined slightly on Wednesday. First Quantum's Kansanshi copper mine expansion project is expected to significantly increase copper production [16]. Aluminum Industry Chain - The US expanded the scope of tariffs on aluminum imports. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate between 20300 - 20800. Alumina is in a state of oversupply, and cast aluminum alloy has cost support [18][19]. Zinc - The previous trading day, zinc prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak during the off - season. It is advisable to consider an internal - external reverse arbitrage [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The main contracts of nickel and stainless steel declined. Spot prices and inventory data are provided, and the market is affected by the broader market and industry fundamentals [23]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index declined slightly on Wednesday. In July, China's refined tin imports increased and exports decreased. The delay in Myanmar's tin mine resumption has supported tin prices [24]. Lithium Carbonate - On Wednesday, the lithium carbonate futures main contract limit - downed. The lithium ore market sentiment slowed down, and the lithium salt market shipments increased. The price may rebound temporarily and then weaken [25][26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. The government held a photovoltaic industry symposium. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to increase, and both are expected to oscillate strongly [27][28]. Lead - The previous trading day, lead prices were weak due to a significant increase in LME inventory. The supply and demand of lead are in a stalemate, and it is expected to oscillate [30]. Group 3: Black Metals Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For steel products, the short - term market has stopped falling and stabilized, but the fundamentals of steel and raw materials are weakening, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [34]. - For iron ore, it is expected to oscillate with reduced volatility, and its price may be stronger than that of steel products in the short - term [37]. - For coking coal and coke, the market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and investors should pay attention to risk prevention [40]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply pressure is increasing, and there is a possibility of a shift from inventory reduction to inventory accumulation [42]. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Yesterday, steel product prices stopped falling and rebounded. Coal mines are resuming production, and Tangshan's production restriction intensity has increased. The supply of steel products is increasing while the demand is decreasing [32][33]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market was generally weak, but rebounded in the afternoon. Steel production has been suppressed, and the iron ore price may oscillate [35][37]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal's static supply - demand is in a tight balance, and coke's supply has perturbation factors. The market may fluctuate with sentiment, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventories [38][40]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is increasing, and the demand has no obvious improvement. The market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality [41]. Group 4: Energy and Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, the overnight market rose slightly, but it will continue to adjust weakly in the short - term. The medium - term risk of a downward break is increasing [44]. - For LPG, the fundamentals remain loose, and the market is affected by news. It is in a state of oscillation [46]. - For PX - PTA, it is advisable to buy on dips to expand the processing margin. In the medium - term, PTA's low processing margin will drive changes [48]. - For MEG, it is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and it is advisable to buy on dips near the cost. In the long - term, the performance of the polyester peak season needs to be observed [51]. - For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the near future, and future attention should be paid to demand and cost changes [53]. - For PE, the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [55]. - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene may oscillate in the short - term, and for styrene, it is advisable to be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [56][58]. - For fuel oil, the short - term driving force of domestic FU is downward [60]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [61]. - For asphalt, the unilateral price is weakly retracting, and the peak season shows no excessive performance. Future attention should be paid to specific measures for the asphalt industry chain [62]. - For rubber and 20 - grade rubber, RU2601 is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is advisable to wait and see for the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage and buy on dips to expand the price difference between light and dark rubber [67]. - For urea, the 09 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [69]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [70]. - For glass, the market is in a weak balance, and future attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [71]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, crude oil futures prices rose. The EIA report showed a significant decrease in US commercial crude oil inventory. Geopolitical factors are weakening the support for crude oil [43][44]. LPG - The LPG futures prices rose. The domestic supply is loose, and the demand has slightly improved. The market is affected by news [45][46]. PX - PTA - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. PX supply may increase, and PTA's processing margin is at a low level. The downstream demand is expected to improve [47][48]. MEG - MEG prices rose. The supply - demand is in a fragile balance, and it is expected to remain strong in the short - term [49][51]. PP - PP prices rose. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to oscillate [52][53]. PE - PE prices rose. The supply may decrease in September, and the demand is in the process of recovery from the off - season to the peak season [54][55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene's supply and demand are both increasing, and it may oscillate in the short - term. Styrene's supply is sufficient, and the supply - demand surplus is decreasing [56][58]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is weak. The export has eased, the feed demand is strengthening, and the power generation demand is weakening [60]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The low - sulfur fuel oil supply was low in July, and the demand was weak. The short - term cracking spread has stabilized, and it is advisable to wait and see [61]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are weakening. The supply is stable, but the demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and capital shortage. The cost pressure is expected to ease [62]. Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber - Rubber prices rebounded. The import is increasing steadily, and the inventory pressure is high. The demand is facing challenges, and the cost support is strong [64][67]. Urea - Urea prices rose. The export may boost the price, but the agricultural demand is weakening. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate [68][69]. Soda Ash - Soda ash prices fell. The supply remains high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a historical high. Attention should be paid to cost factors [70]. Glass - Glass prices fell. The supply is stable, the demand is in a weak balance, and the market sentiment is fluctuating. Attention should be paid to policy and sentiment changes [71].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current hype about mining license issues may be overheated. The market has two logics: a "step - by - step rise chain" when macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances occur, and a "negative feedback cycle" during the price - down cycle. The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: prices will rise in Q3 and fall in Q4 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 90,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 73.5% [2]. - **Contract Performance**: For the lithium carbonate main contract, the closing price dropped from 87,540 to 80,980 yuan/ton (-7.49% day - on - day, -4.84% week - on - week), the trading volume increased from 734,929 to 838,879 hands (14.14% day - on - day, -32.64% week - on - week), and the open interest decreased from 414,097 to 395,102 hands (-4.59% day - on - day, 0.62% week - on - week). Similar trends were seen in the LC2601 contract [9]. - **Month - spread Changes**: The LC11 - 12 month - spread decreased from 120 to 100 (-17% day - on - day, -69% week - on - week), and the LC11 - 01 month - spread decreased from 540 to 340 (-37% day - on - day, -45% week - on - week) [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, showed different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the price of lithium mica (Li2O:2 - 2.5%) was 2,125 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (-2.75% day - on - day, 4.68% week - on - week) [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide**: The average daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide had weekly increases. For instance, industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,400 yuan/ton, up 4,600 yuan (5.84% week - on - week) [18]. - **Downstream Products**: The average daily prices of downstream products like lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes were mostly stable with no daily changes [23][24]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The brand - based basis quotes of lithium carbonate from different companies, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, etc., were mostly stable. The four - material comprehensive basis quote for LC2507 was - 250 yuan [26]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts increased from 23,615 to 24,045, with changes in different warehouses and sub - warehouses [29][30]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production and Delivery Profits**: The production profit from purchasing lithium ore, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate are presented through trend charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [32].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The key focus for the external market is the export of new - crop US soybeans to China due to the dry planting weather in the US. For the domestic soybean market, it's about whether the supply - demand gap in the far - month contracts will open up the upside space. The domestic rapeseed market still has long - position value after a short - term pullback due to China - Canada anti - dumping duties [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. For rapeseed meal, although the near - month is under spot pressure, the far - month still has long - position value considering potential supply shortages [5]. - The trading logic of domestic soybean meal is shifting to the far - month contracts, and attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point in September. The supply of imported soybeans is at a seasonal high, and soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a volatility of 12.7% and a historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy - Traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low prices can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3. Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3160, down 1 (-0.03%); soybean meal 05 is 2860, up 16 (0.56%); soybean meal 09 is 3116, up 3 (0.1%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2627, up 23 (0.88%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2517, up 12 (0.48%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2667, down 11 (-0.41%) [7]. 4. CBOT and Exchange Rate - The price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1033.25, unchanged (0%), and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1865, unchanged (0%) [9]. 5. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices and basis of soybean meal in Rizhao and rapeseed meal in Fujian, and the spreads between soybean and rapeseed meal are provided. For example, M01 - 05 spread is 300, down 17 [10]. 6. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4884.6258 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and 0.0803 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import cost is 4061.54 yuan/ton, down 16.26 yuan/day and 56.14 yuan/week. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 847.4358 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and down 133.8179 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import profit is 126.2342 yuan/ton, up 10.3514 yuan/day and 0.0394 yuan/week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed for the futures and spot markets is also provided [11].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - 8 - 9月受韩国纯苯装置检修影响，我国进口端纯苯供应预计下降，国内供需双增，8 - 9月纯苯供需格局有所好转，但隐性库存高企且终端需求不佳，短期基本面改善有限，需观察后续传统需求旺季是否带来需求增量 [3] - 苯乙烯近端价格低，下游工厂抄底意愿增强，原料补库基本结束，后续出口端有需求增量，8 - 9月苯乙烯供应过剩程度减轻 [3] - 当前苯乙烯绝对价格处于近几年历史低位且旺季预期无法证伪，短期单边谨慎做空，品种间可关注苯乙烯大装置落地时间，考虑逢高做缩纯苯苯乙烯价差 [3] - 今日受原料端供应缩量消息影响，午后化工板块整体偏强运行 [3] 3. Content Summaries by Directory 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for pure benzene is 5800 - 6400 yuan/ton, and for styrene is 7000 - 7600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 85.8% [3] - **Hedging Strategies for Styrene** - **Inventory Management**: When finished - product inventory is high and worried about price decline, short 25% of styrene futures (EB2510) at 7350 - 7400 yuan/ton and sell 50% of call options (EB2510C7500) at 75 - 90 to lock in profits and reduce costs [3] - **Procurement Management**: When procurement inventory is low, buy 50% of styrene futures (EB2510) at 7150 - 7200 yuan/ton and sell 75% of put options (EB2510P7100) at 90 - 110 to lock in procurement costs [3] 3.2 Core Contradictions - For pure benzene, supply from imports is expected to decline due to South Korean plant maintenance, but high hidden inventory and poor terminal demand limit short - term improvement in fundamentals [3] - For styrene, downstream restocking is mostly completed, and there is expected demand growth in exports, reducing the supply surplus in August - September [3] 3.3利多解读 - Recent downstream projects of pure benzene have been put into production, improving the supply - demand pattern [6] - As of August 18, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu decreased by 1.37% compared to the previous period, with visible inventory gradually decreasing [6] - There are many rumors of styrene exports, with expected demand growth in the export market [6] - The return of multiple maintenance devices in the EPS and PS industries, especially EPS, has led to a significant increase in the operating rate and demand for styrene [6] - South Korean petrochemical companies will cut naphtha cracking capacity by up to 3.7 million tons annually [6] 3.4利空解读 - New styrene production capacity is starting to show, with two large - scale styrene plants in Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical to be put into operation in September and October, ensuring sufficient supply [7] - As of August 18, 2025, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 1.27 million tons (8.53%) compared to the previous period [7] - The production schedule of three major white - goods in late July shows poor production plans, leading to a pessimistic outlook for styrene terminal consumption in the third quarter [7] 3.5 Basis and Spread Data - **Basis Changes**: The basis of pure benzene and styrene shows different degrees of daily changes, with styrene basis generally decreasing [8] - **Spread Changes**: The spreads within the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain, including spot - paper goods spreads and styrene - pure benzene spreads, also show certain daily changes [9] 3.6 Industrial Chain Price Data - The prices of various products in the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain, such as crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene, show different daily and weekly changes [9][10] - The profits of different products in the industrial chain, including pure benzene production profit, styrene integration profit, and downstream product profits, also vary [9][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Today, the prices of each monthly contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures first fluctuated slightly downward and then rebounded. As of the close, the prices of each EC contract showed mixed gains and losses. Looking at the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional holders on the exchange, in the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 150 lots to 27,425 lots, short positions decreased by 609 lots to 31,390 lots, and trading volume increased by 1,556 lots to 34,557 lots (bilateral). The opening price of the futures price today slightly declined, which should be affected by the spot cabin quotes on the European Line. After yesterday's close, CMA CGM once again lowered its spot cabin quotes on the European Line for the next two weeks. However, it then rebounded. On one hand, it should be because the spot cabin quotes on the European Line for some newly opened voyages of MSK in the next two weeks have increased to a certain extent compared to before, which is somewhat positive for the valuation of the futures price. On the other hand, it may come from the recurrence of geopolitical risks. For the future market, it is still relatively likely that the EC will continue to show a volatile trend, and some contracts may rebound from low levels [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For those who have already obtained cabin positions but have full capacity or poor booking volume, and are worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's cabin positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling recommendation and an entry range of 1450 - 1550 [1]. - For those who want to book cabins according to order situations due to increased blank sailings by shipping companies or the approaching peak season, they can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying recommendation and an entry range of 1200 - 1300 [1]. 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The spot cabin quotes on the European Line for some newly opened voyages of MSK in the next two weeks have increased to a certain extent compared to before [2]. - According to the "Israel Times" report on the 20th local time, Israeli Defense Minister Katz has approved the Israeli army's offensive plan against Gaza City in northern Gaza. The offensive operation is named "Gideon's Chariot B" [2]. 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - CMA CGM has lowered the quotes on the European Line for the end of August and early September [3]. EC Basis Daily Changes - On August 20, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was 57.17 points, with a daily increase of 4.30 points and a weekly decrease of 95.31 points [4]. - The basis of EC2510 was 825.17 points, with a daily increase of 15.30 points and a weekly decrease of 77.21 points [5]. - The basis of EC2512 was 404.27 points, with a daily decrease of 0.90 points and a weekly decrease of 131.11 points [5]. - The basis of EC2602 was 648.17 points, with a daily increase of 3.40 points and a weekly decrease of 99.31 points [5]. - The basis of EC2604 was 865.87 points, with a daily increase of 8.80 points and a weekly decrease of 41.01 points [5]. - The basis of EC2606 was 700.17 points, with a daily increase of 12.30 points and a weekly decrease of 62.31 points [5]. EC Price and Spread - On August 20, 2025, the closing price of EC2508 was 2123.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.20% and a weekly increase of 1.92% [5]. - The closing price of EC2510 was 1355.0 points, with a daily decrease of 1.12% and a weekly increase of 1.64% [5]. - The closing price of EC2512 was 1775.9 points, with a daily increase of 0.05% and a weekly increase of 4.46% [5]. - The closing price of EC2602 was 1532.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.22% and a weekly increase of 2.96% [5]. - The closing price of EC2604 was 1314.3 points, with a daily decrease of 0.87% and a weekly decrease of 1.08% [5]. - The closing price of EC2606 was 1480.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.82% and a weekly increase of 0.48% [5]. - The spread of EC2508 - 2512 was 347.1 points, with a daily decrease of 5.2 points and a weekly decrease of 35.8 points [5]. - The spread of EC2512 - 2604 was 461.6 points, with a daily increase of 9.7 points and a weekly increase of 56.5 points [5]. - The spread of EC2604 - 2508 was - 808.7 points, with a daily decrease of 4.5 points and a weekly decrease of 73.6 points [5]. - The spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 768.0 points, with a daily decrease of 5.2 points and a weekly increase of 18.1 points [5]. - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 420.9 points, with a daily decrease of 16.2 points and a weekly decrease of 53.9 points [5]. - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 243.9 points, with a daily increase of 4.3 points and a weekly increase of 11 points [5]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On August 28, for Maersk's sailings from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1490/1564, an increase of $10/74 compared to the previous value/same - period quotes of other sailings; the total quote for 40GP was $2530/2656, an increase of $20/125 compared to the same - period quotes of other sailings [7]. - On September 4, for Maersk's sailings from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1285/1349, an increase of $20/64 compared to the previous value/same - period quotes of other sailings; the total quote for 40GP was $2150/2257, an increase of $40/107 compared to the previous value/same - period quotes of other sailings [7]. - In late August and early September, for CMA CGM's sailings from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1510, a decrease of $50/650 compared to the previous value; the total quote for 40GP was $2620, a decrease of $100/800 compared to the previous value [7]. Global Freight Rate Index - The latest value of SCFIS for the European route was 2180.17 points, a decrease of 55.31 points and a decline of 2.47% compared to the previous value [8]. - The latest value of SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, an increase of 24.15 points and a rise of 2.23% compared to the previous value [8]. - The latest value of SCFI for the European route was $1820/TEU, a decrease of $141 and a decline of 7.19% compared to the previous value [8]. - The latest value of SCFI for the US - West route was $1759/FEU, a decrease of $64 and a decline of 3.51% compared to the previous value [8]. - The latest value of XSI for the European Line was $3074/FEU, a decrease of $9 and a decline of 0.29% compared to the previous value [8]. - The latest value of XSI for the US - West Line was $1837/FEU, a decrease of $12 and a decline of 0.7% compared to the previous value [8]. - The latest value of the FBX comprehensive freight rate index was $1962/FEU, a decrease of $13 and a decline of 0.66% compared to the previous value [8]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On August 19, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.395 days, a decrease of 0.625 days compared to the previous day and 0.924 days in the same period last year [15]. - The waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.823 days, an increase of 0.014 days compared to the previous day and 1.439 days in the same period last year [15]. - The waiting time at Yantian Port was 0.880 days, a decrease of 0.058 days compared to the previous day and 0.605 days in the same period last year [15]. - The waiting time at Singapore Port was 0.563 days, a decrease of 0.546 days compared to the previous day and 0.601 days in the same period last year [15]. - The waiting time at Jakarta Port was 1.822 days, an increase of 0.294 days compared to the previous day and 0.980 days in the same period last year [15]. - The waiting time at Long Beach Port was 2.529 days, an increase of 0.218 days compared to the previous day and 1.999 days in the same period last year [15]. - The waiting time at Savannah Port was 1.528 days, an increase of 0.290 days compared to the previous day and 2.141 days in the same period last year [15]. Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - On August 19, 2025, the speed of container ships over 8000 was 15.846 knots, a decrease of 0.12 knots compared to the previous day and 16.009 knots in the same period last year [23]. - The speed of container ships over 3000 was 14.902 knots, a decrease of 0.069 knots compared to the previous day and 15.169 knots in the same period last year [23]. - The speed of container ships over 1000 was 13.344 knots, an increase of 0.075 knots compared to the previous day and 13.49 knots in the same period last year [23]. - The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages was 12, a decrease of 7 compared to the previous day and 7 in the same period last year [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract closed at 805.5 (-5.5), with a reduction of over 2,500 lots. The 09 contract is unlikely to see intense trading due to continuous position - reduction. [3] - Fundamentally, the situation is strengthening marginally. Spot prices have been rising, daily outbound volume remains high, inventory is decreasing and at a low level over the years. The supply - demand pattern is relatively balanced. [3] - Considering the buyer's willingness and the seller's warehouse receipt cost, the current price valuation range is 800 - 840 yuan. When the price is below 800 yuan, buying on the futures market is better than direct import; when it is above 840 yuan, there will be profits from making warehouse receipts. [3] - In terms of trading, when funds enter, the upward possibility is greater than the downward one. The strategy is to mainly go long on dips and supplement with high - selling. The 09 - 11 positive spread arbitrage should exit. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 800 - 840 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4%. [2] Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long spot exposure can short log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 820 - 840 yuan to lock in profits and cover production costs. [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, those with short spot exposure can buy log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 790 - 800 yuan to lock in procurement costs in advance. [2] Core Contradiction - The main contract closed at 805.5 (-5.5), with a reduction of over 2,500 lots. The 09 contract is unlikely to have intense trading. [3] - Fundamentally, the situation is strengthening marginally. Spot prices are rising, daily outbound volume is high, inventory is decreasing and at a low level. The supply - demand pattern is relatively balanced. [3] - The price valuation range is 800 - 840 yuan. The current futures price is in a reasonable range. The strategy is to mainly go long on dips and supplement with high - selling. The 09 - 11 positive spread arbitrage should exit. [3] 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Traders have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; import costs continue to rise; the overall sentiment of commodities is warming up; and there is an impact from funds. [6] - **Likely Negative Factors**: The peak season is not prosperous; the shipping volume from foreign suppliers continues to rise. [6] Spot and Basis - Provides spot price, price change, and basis data for different specifications of logs at different ports on August 20, 2025, including 3.9 large (3.8A) at Rizhao Port, 4 large (3.8A) at Taicang Port, etc. [4][9] Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a month - on - month decrease of 80,000 m³ but a year - on - year increase of 35.3%. [7] - **Inventory**: As of August 15, 2025, the port inventory in China was 3.06 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. [7] - **Demand**: As of August 15, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 63,300 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 900 m³ but a year - on - year increase of 28.9%. [7] - **Profit**: The import profit of radiation pine and spruce on August 15, 2025, was - 87 yuan/m³ and - 81 yuan/m³ respectively. [7] - **Foreign Market Quotation**: The CFR on August 15, 2025, was 116 US dollars/JASm³, with no change week - on - week and a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current upward driver in the market mainly comes from the reduction of overseas supply of hardwood pulp, but this factor has basically been priced in. Port inventories are high and de - stocking is not smooth, with weak spot market transactions. Downstream demand is mainly for essential purchases, and paper mills' production profits are low, with a possibility of a lackluster peak season. The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp continues to decline, and attention should be paid to the actual transaction price changes of hardwood pulp in the future. The strategy is to operate within a range, focusing on the support at the previous low, and lightly testing long positions near the previous low, with a stop - loss if it breaks through [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.03% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 58.0% [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high softwood pulp inventories worried about price drops, they can short pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For papermaking enterprises with low inventories looking to purchase based on orders, they can buy pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract closed at 5178 yuan/ton (-98). In the spot market, Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5850 yuan/ton (+0), Shandong Russian Needle at 5200 yuan/ton (-100), and Shandong Jinyu at 4150 yuan/ton (-50). Chilean Arauco notified August prices, with a 50% reduction in supply for softwood pulp Yinxing at 720 US dollars/ton, hardwood pulp Mingxing at 520 US dollars/ton, and natural pulp Jinxing at 590 US dollars/ton. The spot market trading sentiment was poor, and downstream demand from paper mills remained weak [3]. 3.3 Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: On August 20, 2025, SP2509 was at 5096 yuan/ton (-100), SP2511 at 5136 yuan/ton (-42), and sp2601 at 5380 yuan/ton (-40) [8]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Prices of various types of pulp such as softwood and hardwood pulp showed different degrees of decline. For example, the price of Shandong Russian Needle decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong Jinyu decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 4150 yuan/ton [8]. - **Domestic Finished Paper Average Prices**: The prices of some finished papers such as white cardboard and offset paper decreased. White cardboard decreased by 2.29% to 4260 yuan/ton, and offset paper decreased by 2.92% to 5533.33 yuan/ton [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental supply - demand of ethylene glycol remains stable without obvious drivers, but it may rebound due to unexpected factors. Its price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall trend. The operation strategy is to buy on dips close to the cost end. In the medium - to - long - term, the prosperity of the downstream polyester peak season needs to be observed, and long positions can be hedged by selling near - month out - of - the - money call options [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Polyester Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Ethylene Glycol | 4200 - 4700 | 9.09% | 1.4% | | PX | 6500 - 7400 | 11.78% | 17.7% | | PTA | 4400 - 5300 | 9.30% | 4.6% | | Bottle Chips | 5800 - 6500 | 7.92% | 0.9% | [2] 3.2 Polyester Hedging Strategy Table - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about the decline of ethylene glycol price, for long - position spot exposure, sell EG2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 4500 - 4600, buy EG2510P4350 put options, and sell EG2510C4600 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 30 - 50 to lock in profits and reduce costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for short - position spot exposure, buy EG2601 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 4250 - 4350, and sell EG2510P4350 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 30 - 50 to lock in procurement costs and reduce costs [2]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - Ethylene glycol is in a weak supply - demand balance with limited inventory accumulation, and the inventory accumulation expectation has been fully priced. Once there is an unexpected change in supply - demand, it may rebound rapidly [4]. - The coal - based profit of ethylene glycol is compressed by coal prices, and the downward space is limited under stable costs [4]. - The ethylene glycol plants are operating at full capacity, and additional supply is difficult to increase even if the valuation rebounds. Supply losses are difficult to replenish quickly in case of supply accidents [6]. 3.4利多解读 (Likely to be "Positive Factors Analysis" in English) - South Korea plans to cut up to 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity annually, which may impact the raw material supply and ethylene - based cost of ethylene glycol, pushing up its price [7]. - The planned arrival at the port this week is 965,000 tons, relatively low, and the port inventory is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons next Monday, tightening spot liquidity [7]. - The load of looms and spinning mills has increased slightly. With the approaching of September, some autumn - winter orders at the terminal have started, which is expected to drive order release and increase the load of filament yarns [7]. - The price of thermal coal has strengthened slightly, further compressing coal - based profits and strengthening cost support [7]. 3.5利空解读 (Likely to be "Negative Factors Analysis" in English) - The total load of ethylene glycol has dropped to 66.39% (- 2.01%), with a decrease in oil - based production and an increase in coal - based production. Some production losses are expected due to short - term shutdowns and restarts of some plants [8]. 3.6 Price, Spread, and Processing Fee Data - The report provides price data of various products such as Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol on different dates, as well as their daily and weekly changes [9][10]. - It also includes spread data between different contracts and varieties, and processing fee data of different products, along with their daily and weekly changes [9][10]. - The sales - to - production ratios of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips are also presented, along with their daily and weekly changes [10].