1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term strategic outlook on the pig industry is bullish, but short - to medium - term trends are still mainly determined by fundamentals. The policy bottom has emerged, but the market bottom may require a production cycle to form [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the pig industry. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment, high standard - fat price spread, medium - to long - term policy - driven capacity reduction expectations, and speculative entry sentiment for secondary fattening. Negative factors are the high inventory of sows capable of reproduction, high inventory of large - scale enterprises, and weak downstream terminal consumption [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Price Range Forecast - The main contract price is testing the 13,000 - point integer mark. The current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 19.83%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) is 61.17% [2]. 3.2 Pig Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations 3.2.1 Inventory Management - If product inventory is high and there are concerns about inventory impairment, sell 20% of the LH2511 contract in the live pig futures to lock in finished - product profits. If there are no suitable prices on the futures market, sell 20% of the LH2411 - C - 1300 call options. If one wants to avoid inventory impairment while not giving up the opportunity for a significant price increase, buy the LH2411 - P - 1100 put options [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - If there are future procurement plans and concerns about rising raw material prices, buy live pig forward contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs. If there are no suitable prices on the futures market, sell the LH2411 - P - 1100 put options. If one is worried about rising procurement prices but does not want to lock in procurement and sales profits in advance and believes that procurement costs may be lower, buy the LH2411 - C - 1300 call options [2]. 3.3 Pig Spot Prices - The national average spot price is 11.1 yuan/kg with no change. The prices in different regions vary: Henan is 11.28 yuan/kg (up 0.07 yuan/kg, 0.62%); Hunan is 10.76 yuan/kg (up 0.05 yuan/kg, 0.47%); Liaoning is 11.47 yuan/kg (down 0.11 yuan/kg, - 0.95%); Sichuan is 10.83 yuan/kg (up 0.1 yuan/kg, 0.93%); Guangdong is 11.46 yuan/kg with no change [8]. 3.4 Pig Futures Prices - Pig 01 contract closed at 11,670 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan/ton (- 1.97%); Pig 03 contract closed at 11,280 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan/ton (- 2.25%); Pig 05 contract closed at 11,920 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton (- 1.81%); Pig 07 contract closed at 12,720 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton (- 1.59%); Pig 09 contract closed at 13,515 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton (- 1.74%); Pig 11 contract closed at 11,050 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton (- 1.03%) [9]. 3.5 Pig Price Spreads and Basis - LH01 - 03 spread is 390 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (6.85%); LH03 - 05 spread is - 640 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (6.67%); LH05 - 07 spread is - 800 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (1.91%); LH07 - 09 spread is - 795 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (- 4.22%); LH09 - 11 spread is 2,465 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton (- 4.83%); LH11 - 01 spread is - 620 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton (- 16.22%); Henan - 01 contract basis is - 390 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton (- 43.88%); Henan - 05 contract basis is - 640 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton (- 31.18%); Henan - 09 contract basis is - 2,235 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan/ton (- 12.18%) [17][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. It indicates that the current market sentiment and stock market performance are favorable for a bond market rebound. Traders are advised not to chase the rising prices. Those with existing long positions can continue to hold, while those with empty positions should wait for price drops to build positions. [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Friday, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with long - term bonds showing larger gains. Spot bond yields declined across the board. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.32%. There were 164.8 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases, resulting in a net withdrawal of 244.2 billion yuan. [1] 3.2. Intraday News - Over 80 senators in the US Senate are prepared to empower President Trump to impose a maximum 500% tariff on China according to Bessent. The yield of two - year US Treasury bonds dropped to the lowest level since 2022, as credit concerns drove up safe - haven demand. [2] 3.3. Market Judgment - The A - share market adjusted more significantly today, with previous hot sectors experiencing sharp declines. Although the broader market has not yet broken out of the range - bound pattern, the ChiNext and STAR markets may enter a medium - term adjustment. Driven by this, treasury bond futures rose across the board, with TL performing the most prominently. [3] 3.4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 17 Price | 2025 - 10 - 16 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 10 - 17 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 10 - 16 Position (Lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.378 | 102.368 | 0.01 | 75015 | 74561 | 454 | | TF2512 | 105.775 | 105.705 | 0.07 | 161860 | 158704 | 3156 | | T2512 | 108.265 | 108.16 | 0.105 | 266722 | 261675 | 5047 | | TL2512 | 115.73 | 115.02 | 0.71 | 184963 | 182946 | 2017 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0216 | - 0.0216 | 0 | - | - | - | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.013 | - 0.0228 | 0.0098 | - | - | - | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0256 | 0.0489 | - 0.0233 | - | - | - | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.1525 | 0.2778 | - 0.1253 | - | - | - | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 23759 | 26753 | - 2994 | - | - | - | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 47873 | 42876 | 4997 | - | - | - | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 75516 | 62951 | 12565 | - | - | - | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 126789 | 110395 | 16394 | - | - | - | [4][5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The continuous futures of corn on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rebounded for three consecutive days after hitting the lowest point of the year on Tuesday, with the forward contracts leading the rise. The rebound was driven by an oversold rebound and capital flight. The reason for the capital flight was the increase in spot purchase entities. By the close on the 16th, all contracts except the 11th had risen in October. The 1 - 5 spread widened to 99 yuan/ton, indicating a market expectation of tight supply in the corn market next year, while the near - term contracts were still under pressure from the new grain listing [2]. - In late October, the listing volume of new - season corn will continue to increase. Although the expectation has improved, the current fundamental pressure still suppresses the spot price. About 30% of the new - season corn is yet to be harvested. It is too early to judge that the corn price has bottomed out, and the end of October or early November is an important time point [2]. - On Thursday, CBOT corn futures rose for the third consecutive day, reaching a one - and - a - half - week high, as reports indicated that the corn yield per unit in some parts of the US Midwest was lower than expected, and rainfall forecasts might delay field operations [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price - **Spot Prices**: In the corn market, the price at Jinzhou Port was 2140 yuan with a daily increase of 10 yuan, at Shekou Port was 2310 yuan with no change, and in Harbin was 2000 yuan with no change. In the corn starch market, the price in Shandong was 2730 yuan with a daily decrease of 10 yuan, in Jilin was 2550 yuan with no change, and in Heilongjiang was 2460 yuan with no change. The Jinzhou Port main - contract basis was 29 yuan with no change, and the Shandong main - contract basis was 354 yuan with a daily increase of 15 yuan [4]. - **Futures Prices**: For corn futures on October 16, compared with October 15, the 11 - contract price rose from 2101 to 2111 yuan (0.48% increase), the 01 - contract rose from 2127 to 2136 yuan (0.42% increase), the 03 - contract rose from 2157 to 2166 yuan (0.42% increase), the 05 - contract rose from 2218 to 2235 yuan (0.77% increase), the 07 - contract rose from 2232 to 2247 yuan (0.67% increase), and the 09 - contract remained unchanged at 2262 yuan. For corn starch futures, the 11 - contract price decreased from 2401 to 2376 yuan (-1.04% decrease), the 01 - contract decreased from 2418 to 2417 yuan (-0.04% decrease), the 03 - contract rose from 2435 to 2437 yuan (0.08% increase), the 05 - contract rose from 2529 to 2541 yuan (0.47% increase), the 07 - contract rose from 2539 to 2552 yuan (0.51% increase), and the 09 - contract rose from 2571 to 2594 yuan (0.89% increase). The average wheat price rose from 2464 to 2465 yuan (0.04% increase) [6]. - **US Market**: The CBOT corn main - contract price was 422 with a daily increase of 4.75 (1.14% increase), the COBT soybean main - contract price was 1011.75 with a daily increase of 4.75 (0.47% increase), the CBOT wheat main - contract price was 502.5 with a daily increase of 3.75 (0.75% increase). The US Gulf完税 price was 2098.49 with a daily increase of 8.18 (0.39% increase) and an import profit of 211.51, and the US West完税 price was 1950.42 with a daily increase of 8.44 (0.43% increase) and an import profit of 359.58 [27]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely Positive Factors**: The number of spot purchase entities continued to increase, making it more difficult to purchase at low prices. The pressure of domestic corn production increase was limited, imports remained low, and the futures forward contracts were expected to show resilience after the seasonal pressure [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The pig industry was in the process of capacity regulation, which might affect the long - term feed demand for corn. The release of new - season supply pressure still needed time, and the spot price continued to be under pressure. The number of incoming vehicles in Shandong remained high but was gradually decreasing, and the purchase price stopped falling. Rainfall in North China continued to affect the spot harvest [5]. Other Information - The registered corn warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 36709 lots on the previous day [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but short - term fluctuations will increase. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term fast - in - and - out operations. Dips are considered opportunities for medium - to long - term long - position building. Hold existing long positions with caution. The resistance level for London gold is 4500, and the support level is around 4300. For silver, the resistance is 55, and the support is 50 [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Thursday, precious metal prices continued to rise strongly. The US dollar index, US Treasury yields declined, the US stock market, Bitcoin, and crude oil fell. The silver lease rate rose again, indicating increased risks in the US financial market. The loan fraud and bad debt problems of two US banks triggered a credit crisis and a sell - off, with the US regional bank index in the stock market plummeting nearly 7% during the session. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4344.3 per ounce, up 3.4%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $53.43 per ounce, up 3.99%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 966.42 yuan per gram, up 1.84%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 12017 yuan per kilogram, up 2.93% [2] 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has significantly increased. Although it is still highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points rather than 50 basis points in October. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 3.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 96.3%. By December, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 85%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 14.6%. By January, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 38.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 52.8%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 12.02 tons to 1034.62 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF's holdings remained at 15422.61 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 48.1 tons to 982.3 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 64.3 tons to 1108.1 tons as of the week ending October 10 [3] 3. This Week's Focus - Due to the US government shutdown, many key data updates have been suspended. The release of the US September CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, may be postponed to October 24. There will be many speeches by Fed officials this week, which will provide more guidance for the FOMC meeting on October 31. On Saturday at 00:15, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will give a speech [3] 4. Precious Metal Spot and Futures Price Table - SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 966.42 yuan per gram, up 0.63%. SGX gold TD is at 967.29 yuan per gram, up 0.92%. CME gold main contract is at $4344.3 per ounce, up 2.83%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 12017 yuan per kilogram, up 0.43%. SGX silver TD is at 11981 yuan per kilogram, up 0.17%. CME silver main contract is at $53.43 per ounce, up 1.72%. The SHFE - TD gold spread is - 0.87 yuan per gram, down 147.28%. The SHFE - TD silver spread is 36 yuan per kilogram, up 66.67%. The CME gold - silver ratio is 81.3083, up 1.08% [5][6] 5. Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory is 80961 kilograms, up 7.81%. CME gold inventory is 1217.6426 tons, down 0.35%. SHFE gold position is 225159 lots, down 2.4%. SPDR gold position is 1034.62 tons, up 1.18%. SHFE silver inventory is 982.255 tons, down 4.68%. CME silver inventory is 15930.0729 tons, down 0.11%. SGX silver inventory is 1108.065 tons, down 5.49%. SHFE silver position is 468355 lots, down 1.98%. SLV silver position is 15422.606288 tons, unchanged [11] 6. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index is at 98.3445, down 0.35%. The US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.1279, down 0.04%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 45952.24 points, down 0.65%. WTI crude oil spot is at $57.46 per barrel, down 1.39%. LmeS copper 03 is at $10620 per ton, up 0.42%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 3.99%, down 1.48%. The 10 - year US real interest rate is 1.71%, down 2.84%. The 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread is 0.58%, up 5.45% [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Financial Futures - The domestic economy is in the process of repair, with potential for incremental policies to promote price stability. The recent intensification of Sino-US trade friction is likely a game between the two sides, and short - term expectations for trade talks should not be too high [1]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable, with the TACO trade having short - term stability but long - term concerns [1]. - The stock index is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with the short - term trend difficult to capture. It is advisable to try cross - variety arbitrage in index futures. The relative advantage of large - cap indexes may continue [2]. - Treasury bonds are expected to maintain a volatile trend, with limited upward and downward space. It is recommended to hold long positions in small amounts and wait for price drops to build positions [3]. - The shipping index (European line) futures are likely to continue to fluctuate, with a strategy of waiting and short - term operations. There are still low - buying opportunities for the 12 - contract [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and silver prices are rising strongly, with medium - to - long - term bullish trends but increased short - term volatility. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [9][10]. - The copper price is suppressed by demand but may rebound due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts. A "sell put + buy futures" combination strategy can be tried [11]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, alumina to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy to be volatile and bullish [12]. - Zinc is expected to be in a state of uncertainty, mainly in a volatile state [13]. - Nickel and stainless steel have a weakening downward drive, with short - term volatility. Nickel ore quotas in 2026 are expected to decline, and stainless steel exports have positive factors [15]. - Tin is still bullish in the long - term, with a stable mid - to - short - term wave - like upward trend. High - selling and low - buying strategies can be adopted [16]. - Carbonate lithium has strong demand, and the inventory of warehouse receipts is decreasing. It is expected to form a phased support for futures prices [17]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon have weak fundamentals. Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly in the future, while polysilicon is affected by news disturbances [18][19]. - Lead is expected to maintain a volatile trend with limited upside [20]. Black Metals - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, the market sentiment has slightly improved, but the downward trend may not be over. The rebound power of the futures market is limited [22]. - Iron ore has been under pressure recently, affected by the decline in market risk appetite and the rise in coking coal prices. Short - term short positions can consider taking profits at the right time [23]. - Coking coal and coke are in a state of upward rebound but face negative feedback risks. Unilateral trading should adopt a volatile strategy [24]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are affected by coking coal. They are in a state of high supply and weak demand, and are expected to oscillate at the bottom [25]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are falling due to increased避险 sentiment. The market is affected by the game between macro - sentiment and supply - demand, and is likely to continue to adjust in the short term [27]. - PTA - PX prices follow the cost side. The supply of PX is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, and PTA is in a state of relative surplus. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side and try to expand the processing margin [29][31]. - MEG - bottle chips are mainly affected by macro - impacts. The long - term inventory build - up expectation makes it difficult to change its short - position status. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side and consider selling put options [33]. - Methanol is affected by macro - trading. After the holiday, it is still in a weak state, and it is advisable to buy a small amount of bottom positions at low prices [34]. - PP is facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, following the decline of the cost side. It is recommended to wait and see on the unilateral side [36]. - PE is in a weak pattern, with supply increasing and demand growing slowly. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [39]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in a phase of post - decline consolidation. Pure benzene has a difficult - to - rise and easy - to - fall situation, and styrene supply is tightening. Unilateral trading should wait and see [41]. - Fuel oil is recommended to focus on shorting the cracking spread, considering the supply and demand situation [42]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak rebound, with limited upward drive [42]. - Asphalt has no super - expected performance in the peak season. Short - term external disturbances are increasing, and it is advisable to wait and see [43]. - Rubber and 20 - day rubber have differentiated trends. In the short term, they are under pressure from supply and inventory. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [44][45]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda have upstream inventory build - up. Soda ash has long - term supply pressure, glass has high inventory and weak demand, and caustic soda has uncertain short - term trends and long - term production pressure [46][47][48]. Agricultural Products - For live pigs, with high supply, it is advisable to short at high prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the game between farmers' sentiment and prices, and long - term attention to capacity - reduction policies [50]. - In the oilseed market, the domestic market is weakening, and the external market is in a narrow - range bottom oscillation. It is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US negotiations and supply - demand changes [51]. - For edible oils, palm oil may have limited downside, and it is advisable to buy on dips after a pullback. Soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil's inventory may slowly decline [53]. - For soybeans, the 11 - contract should adjust short - positions according to spot sales, and new low - cost inventory can consider hedging in the 01 - contract [53]. - Corn and starch are in a weak state, with the corn starch market oscillating [53]. - Cotton has new cotton picking over half - way. The market is affected by the US government shutdown and consumption concerns [54]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market information includes Sino - US trade talks, US bank credit issues, Fed interest - rate cut disagreements, and the US government shutdown [1]. - The core logic is that the domestic economy needs to focus on consumer demand, with potential for incremental policies. Sino - US trade friction is a new market focus, and the short - term outlook for trade talks is uncertain [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day saw a slight decline in the on - shore RMB against the US dollar. The main influencing factors are Sino - US trade talks and US government policies [1]. - The core logic is that the impact of this trade friction on the exchange rate is limited, and the RMB is expected to remain stable [1]. Stock Index - The previous trading day saw mixed performance of the stock index, with large - cap indexes rising and small - cap indexes falling. Trading volume decreased, indicating strong wait - and - see sentiment [2]. - The core view is that short - term trends are difficult to capture, and cross - variety arbitrage in index futures can be tried. The relative advantage of large - cap indexes may continue [2]. Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a volatile bond market, with some varieties rising and some falling. Trading volume decreased significantly [3]. - The core view is that the bond market lacks momentum, with limited upward and downward space. It is advisable to hold long positions in small amounts and wait for price drops to build positions [3]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The previous trading day saw the shipping index futures price first decline and then oscillate at a low level [4]. - The core view is that the futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate, with a strategy of waiting and short - term operations. There are still low - buying opportunities for the 12 - contract [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals Gold & Silver - The previous trading day saw a strong rise in precious metals prices, with a decline in the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and other related assets. This reflects increased financial market risks in the US [7]. - The core view is that gold and silver prices are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term but volatile in the short - term. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [9]. Copper - The previous trading day saw mixed performance of copper prices in different markets. The supply side has some maintenance situations, and the demand side suppresses price increases [10][11]. - The core view is that the expectation of interest rate cuts may drive copper prices to rebound. It is advisable to try a "sell put + buy futures" combination strategy [11]. Aluminum Industry Chain - The previous trading day saw different trends in aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy prices. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices, while alumina is in a state of oversupply [11][12]. - The core view is that aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, alumina to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy to be volatile and bullish [12]. Zinc - The previous trading day saw zinc prices oscillating in a narrow range. The supply side is relatively stable domestically and has some production cuts overseas. Low inventory provides support [12][13]. - The core view is that the direction of zinc prices is unclear, and it is mainly in a volatile state [13]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The previous trading day saw a slight rise in nickel and stainless - steel prices. The macro - environment has expectations of interest rate cuts and some easing of Sino - US tariffs. The supply and demand of nickel ore and stainless steel have different trends [14][15]. - The core view is that the downward drive of nickel and stainless steel is weakening, with short - term volatility. It is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [15]. Tin - The previous trading day saw tin prices opening low and then rising. The fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is still bullish [16]. - The core view is that it is advisable to hold long positions for those already in the market and continue to observe for those not yet in [16]. Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day saw an increase in carbonate lithium futures prices. The market demand is strong, and the inventory of warehouse receipts is decreasing [16]. - The core view is that it is expected to form a phased support for futures prices [17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw different trends in industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices. The supply and demand of the industrial silicon industry chain are general, and the polysilicon market is affected by news [17][18]. - The core view is that industrial silicon prices may rise slightly in the future, while polysilicon is affected by news disturbances [18][19]. Lead - The previous trading day saw lead prices oscillating in a narrow range. The supply side is affected by silver prices and raw - material restrictions, and the demand side has some export potential. Inventory may increase in the short term [19][20]. - The core view is that the upside of lead prices is limited [20]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw a rebound in rebar with reduced positions, and hot - rolled coils performed weaker. The inventory of five major steel products decreased, but the de - stocking speed is slower than in previous years [22]. - The core view is that the market sentiment has slightly improved, but the downward trend may not be over. The rebound power of the futures market is limited [22]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a continuous decline in iron ore prices. The increase in coking coal prices has squeezed iron ore prices, and the inventory has increased [23]. - The core view is that iron ore is under short - term pressure, and it is advisable to take profits on short positions at the right time [23]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw coking coal and coke prices oscillating strongly. The coking coal market is facing a situation of tight supply and potential negative feedback risks [23][24]. - The core view is that the rebound height and sustainability of coking coal and coke prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel products. It is advisable to adopt a volatile strategy on the unilateral side [24]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The previous trading day saw an increase in ferroalloy prices affected by coking coal. The industry is facing a contradiction between high supply and weak demand [25]. - The core view is that there is no obvious upward drive in the short term, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [25]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw a decline in crude oil prices. The market is affected by the game between macro - sentiment and supply - demand, with increased避险 sentiment [27]. - The core view is that the market is likely to continue to adjust in the short term, and the downward risk is the focus [27]. PTA - PX - The supply of PX is expected to increase in October, with a tight - balance or slight inventory - build - up situation. PTA supply has some changes, and demand is seasonally strong but not as good as in previous years [29][30]. - The core view is that PTA - PX prices follow the cost side. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side and try to expand the processing margin [31]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The inventory of MEG in East China ports has increased. The supply side has changes in various devices, and demand is in a state of seasonal improvement but not strong [31][32]. - The core view is that it is mainly affected by macro - impacts. The long - term inventory build - up expectation makes it difficult to change its short - position status. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side and consider selling put options [33]. Methanol - The previous trading day saw methanol prices at a certain level. The inventory of methanol ports has increased after the holiday, and it is affected by Iranian shipments and Sino - US trade [33]. - The core view is that after the holiday, it is still in a weak state, and it is advisable to buy a small amount of bottom positions at low prices [34]. PP - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in PP prices. The supply side is expected to increase due to improved profits, while the demand side is "off - peak" [35][36]. - The core view is that PP is facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, following the decline of the cost side. It is recommended to wait and see on the unilateral side [36]. PE - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in PE prices. The supply side is expected to increase due to device restarts and potential imports, while the demand side is slow to recover [38][39]. - The core view is that PE is in a weak pattern, with supply increasing and demand growing slowly. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [39]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The previous trading day saw an increase in pure benzene and styrene prices. The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and styrene supply is tightening [40][41]. - The core view is that they are in a phase of post - decline consolidation. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [41]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil prices at a certain level. The supply of fuel oil is tightening, and the demand is in a state of change. Inventory in some areas has decreased [42]. - The core view is that it is recommended to focus on shorting the cracking spread [42]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw low - sulfur fuel oil prices at a certain level. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. Inventory in some areas has decreased [42]. - The core view is that it has a weak rebound, with limited upward drive [42]. Asphalt - The previous trading day saw asphalt prices at a certain level. The supply of asphalt is relatively stable, and the demand is affected by the holiday and weather. Inventory has changed in structure [43]. - The core view is that the peak season has no super - expected performance. Short - term external disturbances are increasing, and it is advisable to wait and see [43]. Rubber and 20 - Day Rubber - The previous trading day saw a differentiation in rubber prices, with 20 - day rubber rebounding. The macro - environment and supply - demand have certain pressures, but the price of 20 - day rubber delivery products is firm [43]. - The core view is that in the short term, there is pressure from supply and inventory. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [44][45]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash inventory has increased, with long - term supply pressure. Glass inventory is high, and demand is weak. Caustic soda has uncertain short - term trends and long - term production pressure [46][47][48]. - The core view is that soda ash is affected by supply pressure, glass is restricted by inventory and demand, and caustic soda needs to wait for the market to bottom out [46][47][48]. Agricultural Products

Report Information - Report Title: Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 16, 2025 - Analyst: Yu Junchen [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Today, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) continued to decline first and then returned to low - amplitude fluctuations. As of the close, the prices of all EC monthly contracts declined. The decline was due to the relatively weak fundamental support and the attempt of some shipping companies to resume routes in the Red Sea, which brought negative sentiment. In the short term, with geopolitical and tariff issues remaining unstable, the futures prices are likely to continue to fluctuate. Strategies can generally remain on the sidelines or focus on short - term operations, and there are still opportunities for low - buying in the December contract [3]. Grouped Key Points EC Risk Management Strategy - For companies with purchased shipping spaces but full capacity or poor booking volumes and worried about freight rate drops, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1700 - 1750 to lock in profits [2]. - For companies aiming to manage costs, when shipping companies increase blank sailings or enter the peak season, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1450 - 1500 to fix booking costs in advance [2]. Market Situation Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Maersk's cabin opening quotes at the end of October were the same as the previous two periods, indicating successful price support in mid - to late October. Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag - Lloyd all issued price increase letters for November. An Israeli senior official denied reports of a Gaza cease - fire agreement [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The offline PA alliance reduced freight rates to $1500 per FEU. SeaLead and CMA CGM announced route reforms and upgrades [4]. EC Data - **EC Basis Changes**: On October 16, 2025, the basis and its daily and weekly changes of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, and EC2608 are provided in the report [5][6]. - **EC Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices, daily and weekly price changes, and price spreads of different EC contracts on October 16, 2025, are presented [6]. Shipping Quotes - **Container Spot Quotes**: Maersk's 20GP and 40GP quotes from Shanghai to Rotterdam on different dates in October showed increases, while some of CMA CGM's quotes decreased [8]. - **Global Freight Rate Indexes**: The latest values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various global freight rate indexes such as SCFIS, SCFI, XSI, and FBX are provided [9]. Port and Shipping Data - **Port Waiting Times**: The waiting times at major global ports on October 15, 2025, and their changes compared to the previous day and the same period last year are presented [16]. - **Shipping Speeds and Waiting Ships**: The average speeds of 8000 +, 3000 +, and 1000 + container ships on October 15, 2025, and the number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages are provided, along with their changes compared to the previous day and the same period last year [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current state of strong supply and weak demand in the downstream steel industry remains unchanged, with the peak season not living up to expectations. During the National Day holiday, steel consumption declined more than the same period last year, reaching the lowest level in the past five years. Iron ore production remains high, and the steel inventory accumulation rate is higher than the same period in previous years [3]. - Although the demand data of the five major steel products rebounded regularly after the holiday, it was still lower than the pre - holiday level. The output of the five major steel products decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the steel industry remained unchanged [3]. - Today, the iron ore in the furnace material end continued to fall, but the prices of coking coal and coke increased significantly. With the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd, the market still has expectations for macro - policy stimulus, leading to a slight rebound in steel prices. However, in the absence of improvement in the steel fundamentals, today's rebound is more of a rebound after a long - term decline and is driven by the coking coal and coke end, with limited rebound space [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly forecast range for the 01 contract of rebar is 2900 - 3300, with a current volatility of 11.60% and a volatility percentile of 16.5%. For hot - rolled coils, the range is 3100 - 3500, with a current volatility of 11.76% and a volatility percentile of 12.86% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about steel price drops, they can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs. For example, short RB2501 and HC2501 with a hedging ratio of 30% at the suggested entry intervals of 3100 - 3150 and 3280 - 3350 respectively. They can also sell call options to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the steel price rises, such as selling RB2601C3400 with a hedging ratio of 20% at 30 - 40 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. For example, buy RB2601 and HC2601 with a hedging ratio of 30% at the intervals of 3000 - 3050 and 3200 - 3250 respectively. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the rebar price drops, such as selling RB2601P2900 with a hedging ratio of 20% at 35 - 45 [3]. 3.2 Market Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The Fourth Plenary Session in October and production restriction disturbances [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Steel inventory accumulation beyond the seasonal norm and the increasing pressure of negative feedback [5]. 3.3 Price and Spread Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 16, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3049, 3102, and 3141 respectively, with daily changes of 15, 12, and 191, and weekly changes of - 47, - 57, and 121. The closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3219, 3233, and 3254 respectively, with daily changes of 7, 10, and - 356, and weekly changes of - 67, - 60, and - 116. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions also showed certain changes [5]. - **Spreads**: - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: On October 16, 2025, the rebar 01 - 05 month - to - month spread was - 53, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of 10; the rebar 10 - 01 month - to - month spread was 92, with a daily change of 176 and a weekly change of 168. The hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month - to - month spread was - 14, with a daily change of - 7 and a weekly change of - 7; the hot - rolled coil 10 - 01 month - to - month spread was 35, with a daily change of - 363 and a weekly change of - 49 [6]. - **Roll - Rebar Spreads**: The 01 roll - rebar spread, 05 roll - rebar spread, and 10 roll - rebar spread also had corresponding changes, and the spot roll - rebar spreads in different regions such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenyang also showed different trends [6]. - **Other Spreads**: The ratios of 01 rebar/01 iron ore, 05 rebar/05 iron ore, 10 rebar/09 iron ore, and the ratios of rebar to coke also had certain changes [8]. 3.4 Seasonal Data - The report also provides a large amount of seasonal data, including the seasonal data of rebar 01 contract basis (in Hangzhou Zhongtian, Beijing, etc.), hot - rolled coil 01 basis (in Zhangjiagang Shagang, etc.), iron ore 01 basis, coking coal 01 contract basis, coke 01 contract basis, rebar and hot - rolled coil month - to - month spreads, rebar and hot - rolled coil 01盘面利润, various steel product profits (including immediate and raw - material - lagged profits), spot roll - rebar spreads, hot - rolled coil export profit estimates, and warehouse receipt inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coils on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [9][11][17][20][21][25][31][34][37][50][57].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the ferroalloy trend include the contradiction between high supply and weak demand, the challenge to cost support, and the contradiction between the expectation of anti - involution and weak reality. Ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4] - The rise of ferroalloys today is mainly due to the impact of coking coal, but the weak downstream demand pattern remains unchanged. There are still expectations for policy stimulus, so ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 33.4%. For silicomanganese, it is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.13% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.9% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SF2601 and SM2601 futures at a 15% hedging ratio when SF is at 6200 - 6250 and SM is at 6400 - 6500 to prevent inventory depreciation [3] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy SF2601 and SM2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio when SF is at 5200 - 5300 and SM is at 5300 - 5400 to lock in procurement costs [3] Core Contradictions - High supply and weak demand: Ferroalloy production remains at a high level, but downstream demand shows no obvious improvement, with inventory accumulation in five major steel products. Silicomanganese is relatively stronger than ferrosilicon recently [4] - Cost support challenge: Although the prices of blue charcoal, electricity, and manganese ore are stable, the continuous decline of coking coal prices challenges the effectiveness of cost support [4] - Contradiction between expectation and reality: There is an expectation of supply - side contraction, but the lack of substantial action leads to a high risk of price rising and then falling [4] 利多解读 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Machinery Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to maintain a stable and positive operation of the machinery industry from 2025 to 2026 [6] - The China Household Electrical Appliances Association issued an initiative to strengthen self - discipline and fair competition in the household appliance industry, aiming to eliminate disorderly low - price competition [6] 利空解读 - US President Trump announced that the US will impose a 100% new tariff on Chinese - imported goods starting from November 1st [7] - The inventory of five major steel products continued to accumulate, with a 160,000 - ton inventory this week, a week - on - week increase of 8.7%. Ferrosilicon enterprise inventory is 66,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.1%, and silicomanganese enterprise inventory is 242,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.7% [7] Daily Data - Ferrosilicon daily data shows changes in basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from October 9th to October 16th [8] - Silicomanganese daily data shows changes in basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from October 9th to October 16th [9] Term Structure Spread and Seasonal Charts - There are term structure spread charts for ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and coking coal [10][11] - There are seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory [13][22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is significantly influenced by the game between macro - sentiment and its own supply - demand. Affected by macro - sentiment, the risk - aversion sentiment has increased, leading to a decline in multiple assets. Although the market has rebounded, crude oil has shown the weakest performance and a new downward trend has initially formed. Currently, crude oil has not completed its technical repair, and it may continue to adjust in the short term with limited upside potential [1]. - Geopolitical support has weakened, and the fundamental pressure of weakening demand and increasing supply has become prominent. The market balance has tilted towards bearish factors. Geopolitical disturbances are difficult to change the weak general trend. Brent crude oil has reached the annual low of $60 - 65, and after the repair, there is a risk of testing the $60 support level. In the future, it is likely to remain weak, and the downward risk remains the focus of attention [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and go short on rallies [6]. - Arbitrage: The monthly spread is weak [6]. 3.2 Logic Combing 3.2.1 Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical factors are the core variables affecting short - term fluctuations in crude oil but cannot reverse the general trend. The support logic has changed. After the cease - fire in Gaza, geopolitical support has weakened, and combined with fundamental pressure, it has directly led to a breakdown in crude oil prices. New geopolitical news can cause short - term rebounds, but its influence has decreased marginally [9]. - Compared with before the Gaza cease - fire, the current geopolitical factors have significantly reduced their support for crude oil, mainly acting as short - term disturbance factors to ease the decline and promote rebound adjustments [9]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Factors - The core logic of the crude oil market is still dominated by fundamentals, and the balance between long and short has clearly tilted towards bearish factors. There is no substantial positive support, and the market shows a combination of supply - side pressure and demand - side weakness [10]. - As the overall fluctuation center of crude oil has moved down, the fundamentals have formed a "new price suppression" on the market. Brent crude oil has fallen to the annual low range of $60 - 65, and the effectiveness of the $60 support level needs to be closely monitored [10]. 3.2.3 Macro and Market Sentiment - The double impact of risk - aversion sentiment: Although the overnight financial market sentiment was basically stable (US stocks rebounded), gold continued to rise and hit a record high, and the panic index has significantly increased recently, indicating that the "potential risk - aversion demand" in the market persists, which directly exerts emotional pressure on risk assets such as crude oil [11]. - Commodity market differentiation: The performance of the commodity market represented by crude oil and copper has been continuously under pressure, showing a divergence from the trends of US stocks and gold, reflecting that the fundamental pressure of crude oil itself is much greater than the short - term boost brought by macro - sentiment [11]. 3.3 Related Information - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending October 10 was 7.36 million barrels, with an expected value of 233,000 barrels and a previous value of 2.78 million barrels [12]. - US President Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Modi has promised to stop buying oil from Russia, which may resolve the core issue of diplomatic and trade differences between Washington and New Delhi [12]. - The US Senate rejected the government funding bill proposed by the Republicans, and there is currently no clear solution to the government shutdown [12]. - As of the week ending October 13, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE was 17.812 million barrels, an increase of 1.478 million barrels from the previous week [12]. 3.4 Crude Oil Market Data 3.4.1 Crude Oil Monthly Spread Tracking - The weekly and monthly spreads of most crude oil varieties have changed significantly. For example, the Brent crude oil monthly spread (01 - 03) has decreased by 46.75% week - on - week and 51.76% month - on - month [4]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil Domestic and Foreign Arbitrage - Various arbitrage indicators and spread indicators have shown different degrees of change. For example, the Brent M + 2 has decreased by 4.20% week - on - week and 8.8% month - on - month [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday trends of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are mainly volatile, with a late - session rebound. The fundamentals have no significant changes recently. There are still expectations of interest rate cuts within the year at the macro - level, and there is a certain easing sentiment regarding Sino - US tariffs [3]. - The nickel ore quota in 2026 is expected to decline under regulatory restrictions, while the new energy sector is entering a peak season with high downstream procurement demand and rising prices. Nickel iron prices lack upward momentum and may run weakly, and stainless steel may see a slight downward shift in its center of gravity [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the shortening of nickel ore quota license periods in Indonesia, the progress of nickel - integrated smelter construction, and favorable news for stainless steel exports. Negative factors include high pure nickel inventories, Sino - US tariff disturbances, and weak demand for nickel iron and stainless steel [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - **Shanghai Nickel**: The price range is predicted to be 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.87% and a historical percentile of 6.1% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and there is a risk of inventory impairment, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When there is a future production procurement demand and concerns about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Inventory Management**: Similar to Shanghai nickel, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio when facing inventory impairment risks [3]. - **Procurement Management**: Buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options when worried about rising raw material prices [3]. Market Data - **Nickel Disk Data** - The latest values of Shanghai nickel main - continuous, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three show different degrees of increase compared to the previous period, with the LME nickel 3M also rising by 0.29%. Trading volume decreased by 19.84%, and open interest decreased by 3.57% [6]. - **Stainless Steel Disk Data** - The latest values of stainless steel main - continuous, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three also increased. Trading volume increased by 11.18%, and open interest increased by 4.01% [7]. - **Inventory Data** - Domestic social nickel inventory increased by 2,866 tons to 43,694 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 3,498 tons to 246,756 tons, stainless steel social inventory decreased by 3.4 tons to 905.6 tons, and nickel pig iron inventory increased by 584 tons to 29,236 tons [7]. Positive and Negative Factors - **Positive Factors**: Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; the Indonesian forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay; the construction of the nickel - integrated smelter jointly promoted by CATL and Antam continues; the WTO rules that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal; the exemption of the Indian BIS certification is extended to the end of the year [6]. - **Negative Factors**: High pure nickel inventories; resurgence of Sino - US tariff disturbances; overall downward shift of the nickel iron center with weakened bottom support; stainless steel shows a situation of "peak season without prosperity" with demand recovery falling short of expectations [6].