南华期货铜风险管理日报 2025年7月30日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 78840 | 73000-80000 | 11.64% | 22.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2509C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent rise in tin prices was mainly due to the boost to the non - ferrous metals sector from anti - involution, with no significant change in its own fundamentals. Given the oligopoly in the upstream and its suppression of the downstream, the price increase is understandable. In the short term, as the anti - involution hype fades, tin prices may decline slightly. Investors should also note the impact of various macro events in the last week of July on tin prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 266,660 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] 3.2 Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, sell 75% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 275,000 yuan/ton and 25% of call options (SN2509C275000) when volatility is appropriate [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, buy 50% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 230,000 yuan/ton and 25% of put options (SN2509P245000) when volatility is appropriate [2] 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - **Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, the semiconductor sector still in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [4] - **Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, Myanmar's tin ore flowing into China, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition to a contraction cycle [4] 3.4 Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures**: The closing prices of Shanghai Tin main, continuous - first, and continuous - third contracts are 266,660 yuan/ton, 266,660 yuan/ton, and 266,930 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. LME Tin 3M is at 33,620 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars (-0.15%). The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.98, up 0.04 (0.5%) [5] - **Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 266,100 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (-0.08%); 1 tin premium is 700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan (40%); 40% and 60% tin concentrates are at 254,100 yuan/ton and 258,100 yuan/ton respectively, down 200 yuan (-0.08%); prices of various solder products remain unchanged [9] 3.5 Import and Processing Data - Tin import loss is 17,714.03 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 1,360.71 yuan (-7.13%). The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ores are 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,550 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [14] 3.6 Inventory Data - Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory: The total warehouse receipt quantity is 7,529 tons, up 160 tons (2.17%); 4,833 tons in Guangdong, up 62 tons (1.3%); 1,821 tons in Shanghai, up 104 tons (6.06%). LME tin inventory is 1,820 tons, up 80 tons (4.6%) [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Domestically, the long - awaited parenting subsidy policy has been officially implemented, which will increase residents' income and boost consumption, especially in low - income areas. It also breaks the household registration limit. Although more supporting policies are needed to enhance fertility willingness, this policy is a step in the right direction. Meanwhile, the Sino - US trade negotiation has achieved phased results, and the Politburo meeting and the Fed's interest rate decision should be focused on [2]. - Overseas, the market generally expects the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. The key points of the decision are the expected guidance on future interest rate cuts and the Fed's statements on subsequent price trends and economic data [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the US dollar index continues to rebound. Without major event shocks, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7.15 - 7.20 [3]. - For the stock index, the Sino - US negotiation results are out, and it is expected to maintain an upward trend. The small and medium - cap stock indexes are stronger, and the new Sino - US negotiation results may further drive the stock index up [4][5]. - For treasury bonds, wait for the uncertainties to land. Temporarily, trading positions should be on the sidelines [5][6]. - For container shipping, the opening quotes of Maersk continue to decline. The EC is expected to be slightly volatile and decline, but beware of the impact of event factors and capital [6][7]. - For precious metals, focus on the Fed's FOMC. The medium - and long - term trend may be bullish, but the short - term London gold may fluctuate greatly. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [8][10]. - For zinc, the short - term trading logic remains unchanged, and it is appropriate to sell on rallies [13]. - For nickel and stainless steel, the short - term may continue to fluctuate, and the long - term trend is bearish [13]. - For lithium carbonate, there are still disturbances, and pay attention to position risks [14][16]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the market is likely to remain volatile and slightly strong in the short term. For polysilicon, pay attention to the emotional fluctuations caused by the downstream component price transmission [16][17]. - For lead, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Wait for the arrival of the peak season and observe the macro and downstream buying sentiment [18]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, the market has upward momentum, and focus on the actual demand for steel and the implementation details of the "anti - involution" policy [19]. - For iron ore, it is expected to be strong in the short term [20]. - For coking coal and coke, the upward trend remains unchanged in the short term. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and Sino - US trade negotiation progress, and beware of the callback risk caused by insufficient macro - policies [21][22]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, beware of the risks of chasing high in the short term. Pay attention to the implementation of policy expectations and control risks [22]. - For crude oil, the geopolitical risk event has a short - term impact on the oil price and cannot reverse the overall trend. Focus on the OPEC+ meeting on August 3 [24][25]. - For LPG, the supply - demand structure remains loose, and the marginal improvement in chemical demand is difficult to reverse the overall pressure [25][26]. - For PX - PTA, the current fundamental driving force is limited. The short - term may see PTA production cuts to support prices, and do long the processing margin on dips [27][28]. - For MEG - bottle chips, maintain a wait - and - see attitude before the "anti - involution" policy is implemented. For bottle chips, operate the processing margin within the range [30][31]. - For methanol, wait for the macro - policy to land. Temporarily, take a wait - and - see attitude [31][32]. - For PP, the supply - demand pressure is not fundamentally alleviated, and the upward space is limited. Continue to pay attention to the downstream demand and macro - policy changes [33][34]. - For PE, the short - term pressure is large, but the downward space in the future is limited. Pay attention to the downstream demand and macro - policy [36][37]. - For PVC, the trading is difficult at present. Temporarily, take a wait - and - see attitude [38][39]. - For pure benzene, wait for the important meetings to end. Temporarily, take a wait - and - see attitude [40]. - For styrene, the short - term is affected by macro - emotions. After the important meetings, evaluate the impact of policies on the industry and then make decisions [42]. - For fuel oil, the short - term driving force is downward [43]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, take a wait - and - see attitude [44]. - For asphalt, the short - term is in an oscillating trend. The peak season is still worth looking forward to in the medium - and long - term [45][46]. - For urea, the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [47]. - For soda ash and glass, pay attention to the policy implementation. The supply of soda ash is strong and the demand is weak, while the glass is in a weak balance [47][49]. - For logs, the market is flat. Consider selling the lg2509 - p - 800 contract at an appropriate time [50]. - For pulp, the fundamental is weak. Technically, buy lightly on the support [51]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to the delivery logic and the policy implementation. The short - term focuses on the downstream demand improvement [52]. - For live pigs, sell on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [53]. - For oilseeds, allocate long positions in the far - month contracts [54][55]. - For corn and starch, they are expected to fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to the growth of new - crop corn [55][56]. - For cotton, the upside space is limited, but the tight domestic inventory before the new - cotton listing will support the price. Pay attention to the import quota policy and Sino - US trade agreement adjustment [57]. - For sugar, the recent pattern is strong domestically and weak overseas [59]. - For eggs, the medium - and long - term capacity is loose. Appropriate reverse spreads can be arranged [60]. - For apples, the price has a significant reverse effect [60]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations have made new progress. The suspended 24% of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures will be extended for 90 days. The US "reciprocal tariffs" face the risk of cancellation. The US JOLTS job openings in June were 7.437 million, less than expected [1][3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to maintain an upward trend. The small and medium - cap stock indexes are stronger, and the new Sino - US negotiation results may further drive the stock index up [4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Wait for the uncertainties to land. Temporarily, trading positions should be on the sidelines [5][6]. - **Container Shipping**: The opening quotes of Maersk continue to decline. The EC is expected to be slightly volatile and decline, but beware of the impact of event factors and capital [6][7]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Stop falling and oscillate. Focus on the Fed's FOMC. The medium - and long - term trend may be bullish, but the short - term London gold may fluctuate greatly. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [8][10]. - **Zinc**: The short - term trading logic remains unchanged, and it is appropriate to sell on rallies [13]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The short - term may continue to fluctuate, and the long - term trend is bearish [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are still disturbances, and pay attention to position risks [14][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The market is likely to remain volatile and slightly strong in the short term. For polysilicon, pay attention to the emotional fluctuations caused by the downstream component price transmission [16][17]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Wait for the arrival of the peak season and observe the macro and downstream buying sentiment [18]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market has upward momentum, and focus on the actual demand for steel and the implementation details of the "anti - involution" policy [19]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to be strong in the short term [20]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The upward trend remains unchanged in the short term. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and Sino - US trade negotiation progress, and beware of the callback risk caused by insufficient macro - policies [21][22]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: Beware of the risks of chasing high in the short term. Pay attention to the implementation of policy expectations and control risks [22]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical risk event has a short - term impact on the oil price and cannot reverse the overall trend. Focus on the OPEC+ meeting on August 3 [24][25]. - **LPG**: The supply - demand structure remains loose, and the marginal improvement in chemical demand is difficult to reverse the overall pressure [25][26]. - **PX - PTA**: The current fundamental driving force is limited. The short - term may see PTA production cuts to support prices, and do long the processing margin on dips [27][28]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude before the "anti - involution" policy is implemented. For bottle chips, operate the processing margin within the range [30][31]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the macro - policy to land. Temporarily, take a wait - and - see attitude [31][32]. - **PP**: The supply - demand pressure is not fundamentally alleviated, and the upward space is limited. Continue to pay attention to the downstream demand and macro - policy changes [33][34]. - **PE**: The short - term pressure is large, but the downward space in the future is limited. Pay attention to the downstream demand and macro - policy [36][37]. - **PVC**: The trading is difficult at present. Temporarily, take a wait - and - see attitude [38][39]. - **Pure Benzene**: Wait for the important meetings to end. Temporarily, take a wait - and - see attitude [40]. - **Styrene**: The short - term is affected by macro - emotions. After the important meetings, evaluate the impact of policies on the industry and then make decisions [42]. - **Fuel Oil**: The short - term driving force is downward [43]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Take a wait - and - see attitude [44]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term is in an oscillating trend. The peak season is still worth looking forward to in the medium - and long - term [45][46]. - **Urea**: The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [47]. - **Soda Ash & Glass**: Pay attention to the policy implementation. The supply of soda ash is strong and the demand is weak, while the glass is in a weak balance [47][49]. Others - **Logs**: The market is flat. Consider selling the lg2509 - p - 800 contract at an appropriate time [50]. - **Pulp**: The fundamental is weak. Technically, buy lightly on the support [51]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to the delivery logic and the policy implementation. The short - term focuses on the downstream demand improvement [52]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Sell on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [53]. - **Oilseeds**: Allocate long positions in the far - month contracts [54][55]. - **Corn & Starch**: They are expected to fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to the growth of new - crop corn [55][56]. - **Cotton**: The upside space is limited, but the tight domestic inventory before the new - cotton listing will support the price. Pay attention to the import quota policy and Sino - US trade agreement adjustment [57]. - **Sugar**: The recent pattern is strong domestically and weak overseas [59]. - **Eggs**: The medium - and long - term capacity is loose. Appropriate reverse spreads can be arranged [60]. - **Apples**: The price has a significant reverse effect [60].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The main contract closed at 5374 (-48) today, a decline of -0.89%. Technically, it's a retracement after a breakout [3] - The paper pulp's own fundamentals are not optimistic, with high supply and high inventory. The comprehensive production profit of the four major types of paper is low, the operating rate is low, and there is new production capacity coming online. There is a large short - term surplus pressure. The demand side cannot foresee a long - term significant increase [4] - Seasonally, after entering August, it gradually becomes the downstream consumption peak season, which will boost the demand for paper pulp to some extent. But currently, the downstream procurement willingness is not positive [4] - The previous rise in commodity sentiment drove up the futures and, to some extent, the spot prices. There will be a policy window period, and it will take time for specific policies to be implemented. The relatively weak fundamentals will restrain the rebound height. Technically, after retracing to the support level, one can go long with a light position [4] Group 3: Key Points from Different Sections Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for paper pulp is 4900 - 5400, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 19.03%, and the current volatility's 3 - year historical percentile is 58.0% [2] - For inventory management, when the softwood pulp inventory is at a high level and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short paper pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 5200 - 5300 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - For procurement management, when the inventory of papermaking enterprises is low and they want to purchase according to orders, they can buy paper pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 4900 - 5100 to lock in procurement costs in advance [2] Market Quotes - On the spot side, the quotes in Shandong are: Silver Star at 5920 yuan/ton (+0), Russian Needle at 5450 yuan/ton (+0), and Goldfish at 4150 yuan/ton (+0) [3] - The futures quotes show different prices and changes for contracts like SP2509, SP2511, and sp2601 on July 29 - 30, 2025 [5] - The CFR quotes for softwood pulp and hardwood pulp on July 28, 2025, are 870 dollars/ton and 820 dollars/ton respectively [5][8] - Domestic spot prices of various types of pulp and finished paper have different price levels and changes on different dates [8] Industry Initiative - The Guangdong Paper Association issued an initiative to promote high - quality development in the paper industry by resisting malicious competition, optimizing capacity structure, and shifting to value - based competition, which has regional demonstration significance [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the stock indices closed higher collectively, with the small and medium - cap indices showing stronger performance. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices reached new highs for the year. The trading volume of the two markets increased, exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan again. Affected by the post - market childcare subsidy policy yesterday, the childcare concept sector drove the stock indices to open higher, but then quickly declined, and the CRO concept took over as the leading sector today. From the perspective of the basis of stock index futures, the volume - weighted average basis of each variety increased, and the market sentiment was generally positive. It is expected that the stock indices will maintain a moderate upward trend in the short term. This week, focus on the China - US talks and the Politburo meeting. If unexpectedly positive information is released, it may further drive up the stock indices [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock indices fluctuated strongly. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 0.39%. In terms of funds, the trading volume of the two markets rebounded by 60.863 billion yuan. Stock index futures all rose with shrinking volume [4] Important Information - The implementation plan of the national childcare subsidy system was officially announced. Starting from January 1, 2025, a childcare subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year will be provided until the child reaches the age of 3. Eligible infants under 3 years old, regardless of whether they are the first, second, or third child, can apply for the childcare subsidy. For infants born before January 1, 2025 and under 3 years old, the subsidy will be calculated and paid according to the number of eligible months [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions and wait and see [7] Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.54 | 0.39 | 0.66 | 0.86 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 9.7663 | 4.6147 | 8.8093 | 18.8549 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | 0.467 | - 0.021 | - 0.0098 | 0.2292 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.952 | 9.4722 | 22.4781 | 32.9912 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 0.4319 | - 0.0725 | - 0.3909 | - 0.8839 | [7] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.33 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.64 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.75 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 18031.71 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (100 million yuan) | 608.63 | [8]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the policy expectation persists, with the possibility of re - heating. From a practical perspective, there is significant short - term warehouse receipt pressure, and the delivery logic is starting to play out. The market is characterized by a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with the policy expectation yet to be falsified. There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and there is huge short - term delivery pressure. The positive factors include the persistence of policy expectations and the logic of rising coal costs, while the negative factor is that the fundamental reality has not improved significantly, and the rigid demand is weakening [2] Group 3: Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for glass is in the range of 1200 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 97.8%. The monthly price forecast for纯碱 is in the range of 1200 - 1600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 75.6% [1] Group 4: Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: For high glass product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 50% of FG2509 futures at 1400 and sell 50% of FG509C1400 call options at 40 - 50 to lock in profits and reduce costs. - **Procurement Management**: For low glass procurement inventory, buy 50% of FG2509 futures at 1100 and sell 50% of FG509P1100 put options at 50 - 60 to lock in procurement costs [1] 纯碱 - **Inventory Management**: For high纯碱 product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 50% of SA2509 futures at 1600 and sell 50% of SA509C1500 call options at 40 - 60 to lock in profits and reduce costs. - **Procurement Management**: For low纯碱 procurement inventory, buy 50% of SA2509 futures at 1200 - 1250 and sell 50% of SA509P1260 put options at 40 - 60 to lock in procurement costs [1] Group 5: Glass Market Data Glass Futures - On July 29, 2025, the glass 05 contract price was 1368, up 34 (2.55%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1188, down 35 (-2.86%); the 01 contract was 1313, up 13 (1%) [4] Glass Spot - The average price of glass in Shahe on July 29, 2025, was 1278.2, down 7 from the previous day. Prices in different regions also showed fluctuations, such as a 10 - point decrease in North China and a 10 - point increase in South China [5] Group 6: Soda Ash Market Data Soda Ash Futures - On July 29, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract price was 1447, up 30 (2.12%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1318, up 2 (0.15%); the 01 contract was 1407, up 20 (1.44%) [6] Soda Ash Spot - The market prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly stable on July 29, 2025, with some exceptions like a 50 - point increase in heavy and light soda ash prices in the Northeast region [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity sentiment has cooled down, and the leading stocks have lost momentum. The market is dull, with a continuous oscillatory adjustment after a peak. The trading volume has been declining since last week's peak. There is no obvious driving force after the valuation repair, and there is no significant contradiction in the fundamentals. There are relatively more ship - buying activities recently, leading to short - term arrival pressure. The spot price has changed little, and the pressure from the delivery goods will be gradually digested by the market. The current futures price is slightly overvalued based on the warehouse receipt cost in Taicang, while the hedging profit is better when anchored to the warehouse receipt cost in Chongqing. Industry customers who are not optimistic about the future market can consider hedging after August to lock in the futures profit and quickly recover funds through delivery. According to the latest data from Steel Union, the CFR quotation remains unchanged at $114. There is no obvious contradiction in inventory and delivery volume. Due to cost support, the strategy can consider selling the lg2509 - p - 800 contract at an appropriate time [3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a historical percentile of 67.4% over the past 3 years [2] 3.2 Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position spot exposure, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 850 - 875 [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is to be made according to order situations, for short - position spot exposure, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 810 - 820 [2] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The commodity market is dull after a peak, with the trading volume declining. There is no obvious driving force after the valuation repair, and there is no significant fundamental contradiction. There is short - term arrival pressure, and the delivery pressure will be digested. The current futures price is slightly overvalued based on Taicang's warehouse receipt cost, while the hedging profit is better when anchored to Chongqing's cost. Industry customers can consider hedging after August. The CFR quotation remains unchanged, and there is no obvious contradiction in inventory and delivery volume. A strategy of selling the lg2509 - p - 800 contract at an appropriate time can be considered [3] 3.4 Spot and Basis - On July 29, 2025, the spot prices of different specifications of logs in various ports (such as 3.9 large (3.8A) in Rizhao Port, 4 large (3.8A) in Taicang Port, etc.) and their corresponding basis values are presented. Some spot prices have no change, while some have small fluctuations. The basis values vary according to different specifications and ports [5][8] 3.5利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - Traders are willing to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; the import cost continues to rise; the overall commodity sentiment has improved; and there is an impact from funds [7] 3.6利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - The peak season fails to show strong performance; the foreign shipment volume continues to increase [7] 3.7 Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [9] - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the national port inventory was 3.17 million m³, a decrease of 120,000 m³ from the previous week and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,930,000 m³, a decrease of 2,000 m³ from the previous week but a 5.8% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,016,400 m³, a decrease of 91,169 m³ from the previous week and a 21.4% increase year - on - year [9] - **Demand**: As of July 25, 2025, the average daily log delivery volume at ports was 64,100 m³, an increase of 1,700 m³ from the previous week and a 27.2% increase year - on - year. The average daily delivery volume in Shandong was 33,900 m³, an increase of 300 m³ from the previous week and a 34.5% increase year - on - year. The average daily delivery volume in Jiangsu was 24,600 m³, an increase of 1,400 m³ from the previous week and a 31.6% increase year - on - year [9] - **Profit**: As of August 1, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 82 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1 yuan/m³ from the previous week. The spruce import profit was - 95 yuan/m³, an increase of 2 yuan/m³ from the previous week [9] - **Main Spot Prices**: On July 29, 2025, the spot prices of some log specifications (such as 3.9 medium (3.8A) in Rizhao Port, 4 medium (3.8A) in Taicang Port) showed no change compared to the previous period, with varying year - on - year decreases [9] - **External Market Quotation**: As of August 1, 2025, the CFR quotation was $114, unchanged from the previous period and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The BPI and BSI freight rate indices continued to decline in the current week, but the increase in the BCI freight rate index drove the BDI comprehensive freight rate index to strengthen. The shipping volumes of corn, soybean meal, and coal continued to increase significantly, and the shipping volume of iron ore remained at a high level. The demand for shipping boosted the demand for Capesize and Handysize vessels, supporting the rise of the BCI and BHSI freight rate indices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Index Review - **BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis**: On July 28, compared with the previous week, the increase in the BDI comprehensive freight rate index and the BCI freight rate index continued to expand slightly, while the adjustment range of the BPI and BSI freight rate indices widened. The BDI comprehensive freight rate index closed at 2,226 points, a week - on - week increase of 10.42%; the BCI freight rate index closed at 3,774 points, a week - on - week increase of 26.60%; the BPI freight rate index closed at 1,798 points, a week - on - week decrease of 6.11%; the BSI freight rate index closed at 1,289 points, a week - on - week decrease of 4.23%; the BHSI freight rate index closed at 680 points, a week - on - week increase of 0.74% [3]. - **FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index**: On July 28, the FDI index declined across the board, and the decline widened. Most of the freight rates in the Capesize vessel rental market of the FDI rental index changed from rising to falling. The FDI comprehensive freight rate index closed at 1,332.32 points, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19%; the FDI rental index closed at 1,625.32 points, a month - on - month decrease of 1.85% [7]. 3.2 Dry Bulk Shipping Situation Tracking - **Number of Shipping Vessels in Shipping Countries on the Day**: On July 29, among the major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 37 shipping vessels, Russia used 5, Argentina used 22, and Australia used 5. Among the major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 49, Guinea used 26, Indonesia used 33, Russia used 23, South Africa used 18, Brazil used 15, and the United States used 14 [11]. - **Analysis of Shipping Volume and Vessel Demand on the Day**: In terms of agricultural product shipping, 25 vessels were used for corn shipping, 13 for wheat, 18 for soybeans, 18 for soybean meal, and 10 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipping, 105 vessels were used for coal shipping, 71 for iron ore, and 12 for other dry goods. For agricultural product shipping, the largest number of vessels required was 33 Ultra - Panamax vessels, followed by 17 Supramax vessels and 21 Handysize vessels. For industrial product shipping, the largest number of vessels required was 73 Capesize vessels, followed by 68 Ultra - Panamax vessels and 59 Supramax vessels [12]. 3.3 Tracking of the Number of Vessels at Major Ports The number of vessels at ports in China, Indonesia, and South Africa continued to increase week - on - week. From July 1 to July 28, the number of dry bulk vessels docked at ports in China increased significantly by 16 week - on - week; the number of vessels docked at six Australian ports decreased by 9 week - on - week; the number of vessels docked at six Indonesian ports increased by 4 week - on - week; the number of vessels docked at five Brazilian ports decreased by 1 week - on - week [12]. 3.4 Relationship between Freight Rates and Commodity Prices - On July 28, the price of Brazilian soybeans was $40 per ton, and the near - term shipping quote was 3,972.56 yuan per ton. - On July 25, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $26,223 per day. On July 28, the latest quote for the iron ore arrival price was $114.6 per thousand tons. - On July 25, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $13,781 per day. On July 28, the latest quote for the steam coal arrival price was 532.98 yuan per ton. - On July 28, the Handysize vessel freight rate index was quoted at 679.8 points. On August 1, the ACFR quote for 4 - meter radiata pine was $114 per cubic meter [16].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: July 29, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report - Analyst: Gao Xiang from Nanhua Research Institute [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Trading strategy: Trading desks are advised to wait and see for now, waiting for the uncertainty to clear up [2][4] - Market outlook: The bond market pressure exceeded expectations. The market was weak in the morning due to Sino-US negotiations, and small rumors during the session pushed up commodities while pressuring the bond market. The market is still expecting policy support. With the Politburo meeting, Sino-US negotiation results, and FOMC meeting approaching, it's better to wait for the negative factors to materialize [4] Group 4: Market Analysis Market Performance - Treasury bond futures opened lower, with prices falling throughout the day. T2509 dropped 0.27 yuan, erasing the previous day's rebound. All contracts in the market declined significantly [2] Fundamentals - The funds situation improved today, with an OMO net injection of 234.4 billion yuan. The interbank overnight rate dropped, but non-bank institutions faced tight liquidity, with GC001 rising to 1.66% [2] Group 5: Data Summary Contract Prices and Changes | Contract | 2025-07-29 Price | 2025-07-28 Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2509 | 102.302 | 102.364 | -0.062 | | TF2509 | 105.55 | 105.72 | -0.17 | | T2509 | 108.14 | 108.4 | -0.26 | | TL2509 | 117.89 | 118.8 | -0.91 | [5] Contract Positions and Changes | Contract | 2025-07-29 Position (lots) | 2025-07-28 Position (lots) | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Contract | 110,965 | 113,761 | -2,796 | | TF Contract | 199,964 | 198,868 | 1,096 | | T Contract | 235,144 | 234,352 | 792 | | TL Contract | 163,084 | 158,720 | 4,364 | [5] Basis and Changes | Contract | 2025-07-29 Basis | 2025-07-28 Basis | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Basis (CTD) | -0.0024 | 0.0161 | -0.0185 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.0398 | 0.0678 | -0.028 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.047 | 0.0971 | -0.0501 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.2624 | 0.4972 | -0.2348 | [5] Trading Volume and Changes | Contract | 2025-07-29 Volume (lots) | 2025-07-28 Volume (lots) | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Main Contract | 40,325 | 43,197 | -2,872 | | TF Main Contract | 59,938 | 71,923 | -11,985 | | T Main Contract | 77,831 | 78,985 | -1,154 | | TL Main Contract | 140,838 | 120,609 | 20,229 | [5] Repo Rates and Changes | Rate | 2025-07-29 Rate | 2025-07-28 Rate | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 1.4621% | 1.5174% | -0.0553% | | DR007 | 1.5806% | 1.6523% | -0.0717% | | DR014 | 1.6388% | 1.6686% | -0.0298% | [5] Repo Trading Volume and Changes | Rate | 2025-07-29 Volume (billion yuan) | 2025-07-28 Volume (billion yuan) | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 225.265468 | 240.185631 | -14.920163 | | DR007 | 16.506121 | 14.265304 | 2.240817 | | DR014 | 0.7336 | 0.587261 | 0.146339 | [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. In the short - term, the export of the second batch of urea supports the demand side, and inventories are unlikely to accumulate significantly. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will continue to face pressure in the second half of the year [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Price Interval Forecast - The price interval forecast for urea in the next month is 1650 - 1950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 62.1%. For methanol, the price interval is 2200 - 2400, with a volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene and plastic, the price intervals are both 6800 - 7400, with volatilities of 10.56% and 15.24% respectively, and historical percentiles of 42.2% and 78.5% [3]. 3.2 Urea Hedging Strategy 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in urea prices, companies can short the urea futures (UR2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry interval of 1800 - 1950. They can also buy 50% of put options (UR2509P1850) to prevent a sharp price drop and sell 50% of call options (UR2509C1950) to reduce capital costs [3]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low and there are concerns about a rise in urea prices, companies can buy urea futures (UR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry interval of 1750 - 1900. They can also sell 75% of put options (UR2509P1750) to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - A large amount of speculative funds left the market on Friday night, and the urea futures are expected to decline, which will put pressure on the spot market. In the medium - term, the second - batch export of urea supports the demand side, and inventories are unlikely to accumulate significantly in the short - term. Factory inventories and pending orders are not under much pressure, and spot prices are slightly fluctuating, which supports the urea price. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will face pressure in the second half of the year [4]. 3.4利多解读 and 利空解读 - Urea exports have been confirmed, and the futures are expected to show a wide - range shock pattern with enhanced downward support. The domestic policy requires factories to sell urea at low prices, which has a negative impact on the spot market sentiment [5].