Report Title - South China Futures Coking Coal and Coke Industry Weekly Report [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The overall trend of coking coal and coke is strong, but negative feedback risks need to be vigilant. The rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices ultimately depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of downstream steel products can achieve a "soft landing" [2]. - In the short term, the coking coal spot market has a tight resource pattern, but the downstream steel product supply - demand contradiction has deteriorated marginally, and the steel mill's profitability is under pressure, restricting the rebound space of coking coal [2]. - In the long term, in the fourth quarter, domestic mine production is restricted by policies, and the supply elasticity of coking coal is limited. The market expectation for the winter storage in 2026 is improved, which will support the prices of coking coal and coke [8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The coking coal spot market has a tight resource pattern. Before the festival, there was overselling at the pithead, the upstream inventory pressure was generally light, and the mine owners were strongly willing to hold prices. The supply of Mongolian coal at the port has also tightened, and the inventory in the regulatory area is low [2][4]. - The supply - demand contradiction of downstream steel products has deteriorated marginally, the steel mills' profitability is under pressure, and the black industry shows the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season". The rebound space of coking coal is restricted, and there is a risk of negative feedback [2]. - The rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of downstream steel products can achieve a "soft landing" [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The entry interval is (-70, -60) [10]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - Basis strategy: The recent basis of coking coal and coke has little fluctuation, and the coke futures price is between the dry and wet coke warehouse - receipt costs, with a relatively reasonable valuation. There is no definite spot - futures positive arbitrage opportunity [11]. - Calendar spread strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal. Reasons include industrial hedging short positions and warehouse - receipt pressure in the 01 contract, weak short - selling power in the far - month 05 contract; limited position constraints in the 01 contract and fewer restrictions in the far - month contracts; and the expansion of delivery warehouses and capacity by the DCE, which is beneficial for short - selling delivery [11]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Short the coking profit on the futures market at high prices, with the recommended entry interval of 01 coke/coking coal (1.5 - 1.55) [11][13]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: Some strategies such as the 9 - 1 reverse spread of coking coal, shorting the coking profit on the futures market, etc., are in different states of execution [17]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of coking coal is predicted to be 1100 - 1300, and that of coke is 1550 - 1800 [14]. - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations** - Inventory hedging: Steel mills' profitability is shrinking marginally, and coke enterprises' price increase is difficult. Coke enterprises can short the J2601 contract to lock in the sales price, with different recommended hedging ratios and entry intervals [14]. - Procurement management: Affected by policies, the supply of coking coal is disturbed. Coking plants can go long on the JM2605 contract to lock in the procurement price, with different recommended hedging ratios and entry intervals [14]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking Coal Supply and Inventory**: The production of coking coal in some mines and washing plants has increased, and the total inventory has increased slightly. The inventory in some ports has decreased [15]. - **Coke Supply and Inventory**: The production of coke in independent coking plants and steel mills has decreased, and the total inventory has decreased [15]. - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of coking coal and coke in the spot and futures markets have shown different trends, and the basis, calendar spread, and coking profit have also changed [16][18]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The central safety production assessment and inspection are about to be carried out; the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut is high; mainstream coke enterprises plan to raise the price of dry - quenched coke [21]. - **Negative Information**: The supply and inventory of five major steel products have decreased, but the consumption is still lower than the same period in previous years; the average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is negative; the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills is flat, but the profitability is shrinking [22]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Next Monday: Release of China's one - year loan prime rate, year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales in September, and year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in September [23]. - October 20 - 23: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held [24]. - Next Thursday: Release of the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending October 18 [24]. - Next Friday: Release of the US unadjusted CPI annual rate in September, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in October, and the final value of the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in October [24]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Unilateral Trend**: The main coking coal contract JM2601 is in a wide - range shock interval of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton, with strong support at the lower edge of the interval [25]. - **Capital Flow**: The net short positions of the main coking coal seats have decreased significantly, and the market's bullish expectation for the future has increased. The net short positions of the profitable coke seats have first increased and then decreased, and the market sentiment has improved [27]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The coking coal and coke market shows a deep C - shaped structure. The 1 - 5 calendar spread of coking coal strengthened during the week and then declined slightly [31]. - **Basis Structure**: The recent basis of coking coal and coke has little fluctuation, and the coke futures price is between the dry and wet coke warehouse - receipt costs, with a relatively reasonable valuation. There is no definite spot - futures positive arbitrage opportunity [38]. - **Spread Structure**: The coking profit on the futures market has continued to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to short the coking profit on the futures market at high prices [44]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The mine profit has improved month - on - month, but the immediate coking profit has been damaged. The steel mill's profit has continued to shrink, and the iron - making output has decreased marginally [46]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The import profit of Mongolian coal has recovered, and the customs clearance enthusiasm has increased. The import profit of sea - borne coal has shrunk, and the subsequent arrival pressure is expected to ease [50][54]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The production increase space of coking coal mines in the fourth quarter is limited. It is expected that the average weekly output of coking coal from mid - to late October will be 980 - 985 tons. The net import volume of coking coal in October is expected to be 980 tons, with an average weekly net import volume of about 221 tons [72]. - The coke production enthusiasm is suppressed, and it is expected that the weekly coke production from mid - to late October will be maintained at 773 - 775 tons [75]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The blast furnace profitability has declined marginally, and some steel mills have gradually switched to producing hot - rolled coils. As the traditional off - season approaches, the number of steel mills planning to carry out maintenance is increasing, and the iron - making output is expected to decline slowly [77]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke are estimated, including production, import, total supply, theoretical iron - making output, actual iron - making output, and inventory [80].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the "South China Commodity Index Weekly Report" dated October 17, 2025, prepared by the Index Development Department [2][3][4] Group 2: Index Performance Overall Index Performance - The South China Composite Index closed at 2521.90 this week, down 28.96 points or -1.14% from last week. The most influential varieties were crude oil and iron ore, with the crude oil index down -6.23% contributing -1.02% and the iron ore index down -3.02% contributing -0.23% [1][4][5] Sub - index Performance - The South China Precious Metals Index rose 158.66 points or 10.76% to 1633.24 [5] - The South China Industrial Products Index closed at 3466.89, down 106.23 points or -2.97%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and glass, with crude oil contributing -1.09% and glass contributing -0.28% [1][4][5] - The South China Metal Index closed at 6349.75, down 100.03 points or -1.55%. The most influential variety was iron ore, contributing -0.5% [1][4][5] - The South China Energy and Chemical Index closed at 1549.68, down 55.02 points or -3.43%. The most influential variety was crude oil, contributing -1.56% [4][5] - The South China Non - ferrous Metals Index closed at 1715.43, down 18.52 points or -1.07% [5] - The South China Black Index closed at 2486.47, down 42.09 points or -1.66% [5] - The South China Agricultural Products Index closed at 1044.65, down 16.14 points or -1.52%. The most influential variety was live pigs, contributing -0.6% [4][5] Group 3: Index Ratio and Ranking - The report provides the ratio data of various South China commodity indexes and their rankings. For example, the ratio of the precious metals index to the composite index was 0.648, up 0.069551849 from last week, with a ranking of 0.999. The ranking indicator shows the position of the latest value in the historical distribution, with values closer to 0 indicating closer to the historical bottom and values closer to 1 indicating closer to the historical top [9] Group 4: Variety Contribution - The report shows the contribution of each variety's daily price change to the index price change. For example, soybean meal had a week - on - week increase of 1.11%, with a position - holding ratio of 10.71% [11]

股指期货日报 2025年10月17日 王映(投资咨询证号：Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 下旬股市波动或放大 市场回顾 今日股指走势整体回落，以沪深300指数为例，收盘2.26%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回升69.79亿元。期 指方面，IM放量下跌，其余品种均缩量下跌。 重要资讯 1、财政部将继续提前下达2026年新增地方政府债务限额。 2、财政部、海关总署、税务总局联合印发《关于调整海南离岛旅客免税购物政策的公告》，定于11月1日起 实施。财政部称，一是扩大离岛免税商品范围，增加宠物用品、可随身携带的乐器、微型无人机、小家电等 商品。优化后的离岛免税商品由45大类提高至47大类。 3、2025金融街论坛年会开幕式拟10月27日下午举行 "一行两局一会"主要负责人将做主题演讲。 核心观点 今日股市整体回落，以沪深300指数为例，收盘基本回归周一开盘价附近水平。短期关于中美贸易关系的讨论 甚嚣尘上，反复拉扯，市场整体交易维持谨慎，红利指数走势继续展现相对 韧性，小盘期指持仓量上涨，或 存在空头套保增仓的现象。进入下旬，股市扰动变量将增加，主要包括20-23日的二十届四中全会 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Urea Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 17, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The domestic urea fundamental valuation is low. Without further adjustment to the export policy, urea will continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. The short - term industry drive is weak. The mainstream domestic regional quotes have dropped significantly by 30 - 70 yuan/ton, with the North China mainstream quotes at 1470 - 1520 yuan/ton. The large - scale downstream compound fertilizer terminal pick - up during the holiday did not start as expected due to rainfall in major grain - producing areas, which hindered autumn harvest and sowing, leading to low fertilizer purchase demand and continuous price drops. The combination of fundamentals and macro - sentiment will keep urea weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and the impact of Sino - US trade conflicts [4]. - Urea exports have been confirmed. The urea futures are mainly priced by speculation, so it is expected to show a wide - range shock pattern with enhanced downside support [5]. - Domestic policies suppress the market. The association requires factories to sell urea at low prices, which has a negative impact on the spot sentiment [6]. Price and Volatility - Urea price range forecast (monthly): 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 27.16%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 62.1% - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2250 - 2500 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [3] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops: Short UR2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 1800 - 1950 yuan/ton; buy UR2601P1850 put options with a 50% hedging ratio; sell UR2601C1950 call options to reduce capital costs [3]. - For low purchase inventory and hope to buy according to orders: Buy UR2601 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton; sell UR2601P1650 put options with a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. Purchase Management - For low purchase inventory and hope to buy according to orders: Buy UR2601 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton; sell UR2601P1650 put options with a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current crude oil market is dominated by bearish factors, with no substantial positive support. The balance of the long - short game on the trading floor is tilting towards the bearish side. In the short - term, the macro - logic has become the core driving variable, overshadowing geopolitical factors. In the medium - to long - term, the market pricing anchor returns to the fundamentals, where a bearish pattern of supply and demand is expected to continue, characterized by a "double - bearish supply - demand" structure. The large - scale weak trend of the crude oil market remains unchanged, and the release of downside risks takes precedence over short - term rebound opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Section Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: It is recommended to wait and see for now and go short on rallies [3]. - **Arbitrage**: The month - spread is expected to be weak [3]. - **Options trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3]. Crude Oil Month - spread Tracking - Proximal month - spreads: The Brent crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 0.35 on October 17, 2025, down 47.76% week - on - week and 60.23% month - on - month. The WTI crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 0.61, down 3.17% week - on - week and 16.44% month - on - month. The Dubai crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 2.274, up 99.47% week - on - week and down 19.22% month - on - month. The SC crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was - 7.6, down 522% week - on - week and 149.03% month - on - month [4]. - Distal month - spreads: The Brent crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was - 0.24, down 157.14% week - on - week and 113.79% month - on - month. The WTI crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was 0.01, down 97.4% week - on - week and 99.37% month - on - month. The SC crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was - 7.6, down 522% week - on - week and 149.03% month - on - month. The Dubai crude oil month - spread (01 - 06) was 0.06, down 85.00% week - on - week and 97.94% month - on - month [4]. Crude Oil Domestic - Foreign Arbitrage - Arbitrage indicators: On October 17, 2025, Brent M + 2 was $60.47 per barrel, down 2.91% week - on - week and 10.4% month - on - month. SC M + 3 was 446.00 yuan per barrel, down 5.35% week - on - week and 6.4% month - on - month. The SC theoretical landed profit was - 32.35 yuan per barrel, up 3.7% week - on - week and down 3.3% month - on - month [5]. - Spread indicators: The SC - Brent continuous 1 spread was $0.76 per barrel, down 70.04% week - on - week and 48.65% month - on - month. The SC - WTI continuous 1 spread was $4.32 per barrel, down 32.24% week - on - week and 17.61% month - on - month. The SC - Dubai continuous 1 spread was $0.72 per barrel, down 76.79% week - on - week and up 45.2% month - on - month [5]. Logic Combing - **Geopolitical factors**: Geopolitical factors are the core variable affecting short - term crude oil fluctuations but cannot reverse the general trend. After the Gaza cease - fire, geopolitical support weakened, and the latest news about the Trump administration's action in Venezuela reignited geopolitical concerns, causing a short - term rebound in crude oil prices. However, compared with before the Gaza cease - fire, the supporting effect of geopolitical factors has significantly decreased, only serving as a short - term disturbing factor [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The core logic of the crude oil market is still dominated by fundamentals, with the balance clearly tilting towards the bearish side. There is no substantial positive support, and the market shows a combination of supply - side pressure and demand - side weakness. As the center of crude oil price fluctuations moves down, the fundamentals have exerted a new price suppression on the trading floor. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the $60 support level for Brent crude oil [7]. - **Macro and market sentiment**: Macro - level emotional disturbances have further strengthened the weakness of crude oil. The market's "potential risk - aversion demand" persists, which directly exerts emotional pressure on risk assets such as crude oil. The performance of the commodity market represented by crude oil and copper is under pressure, showing a divergence from the trends of the US stock market and gold [9]. Related News - **US EIA inventory data**: For the week ending October 10, US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 3524000 barrels, strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 80000 barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 703000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 267000 barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 4529000 barrels. Crude oil production increased by 7000 barrels per day to 13636000 barrels per day, commercial crude oil imports decreased by 878000 barrels per day to 5255000 barrels per day, and crude oil exports increased by 876000 barrels per day to 4466000 barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 85.7% [10]. - **India's strategic petroleum reserve expansion**: India's Strategic Petroleum Reserve Limited has launched the second - phase expansion of oil caverns. Contracts have been awarded to build a 2.5 - million - ton underground oil storage facility in Padur, Karnataka. The new facilities will be established on a public - private partnership basis using the DBFOT model [11]. Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes - On October 17, 2025, Brent crude oil M + 2 was $60.71 per barrel, down $0.35 from the previous day and $2.02 from the previous week. WTI crude oil M + 2 was $56.62 per barrel, down $0.37 from the previous day and $1.86 from the previous week. SC crude oil M + 2 was 439.6 yuan per barrel, down 6 yuan from the previous day and 28.9 yuan from the previous week [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, energy and chemical products are still considered as short - positions by funds. The long positions in the methanol 01 contract are mainly held by the industry, while the short positions are mainly held by foreign investors. The contract has been weak since the holiday due to high shipments from Iran in October, which exceeded market expectations and reduced the possibility of early gas restrictions. The short - term price range is 2250 - 2350, and it's advisable to buy a small bottom position at low prices [6]. - The restriction of methanol transport ships due to Sino - US trade has a short - term bullish impact on methanol, but mainly affects the unloading rhythm and ship return time in the long run. With the escalation of Sino - US trade, the market fear has increased, and the trading focus has shifted back to the macro - level [6]. - High supply persists, demand reaches a new high this year, but the inventory pressure remains unsolved [6]. - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered and sufficient, and port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. 3.2 Methanol Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling methanol prices, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short methanol futures (MA2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 2250 - 2350. They can also buy put options (MA2601P2250) to prevent sharp price drops and sell call options (MA2601C2350) to reduce capital costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 15 - 20 for put options and 45 - 60 for call options [3]. Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, to prevent rising procurement costs, they can buy methanol futures (MA2601) at present to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2450 - 2550. They can also sell put options (MA2601P2300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 20 - 25 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term strategic outlook on the pig industry is bullish, but short - to medium - term trends are still mainly determined by fundamentals. The policy bottom has emerged, but the market bottom may require a production cycle to form [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the pig industry. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment, high standard - fat price spread, medium - to long - term policy - driven capacity reduction expectations, and speculative entry sentiment for secondary fattening. Negative factors are the high inventory of sows capable of reproduction, high inventory of large - scale enterprises, and weak downstream terminal consumption [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Price Range Forecast - The main contract price is testing the 13,000 - point integer mark. The current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 19.83%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) is 61.17% [2]. 3.2 Pig Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations 3.2.1 Inventory Management - If product inventory is high and there are concerns about inventory impairment, sell 20% of the LH2511 contract in the live pig futures to lock in finished - product profits. If there are no suitable prices on the futures market, sell 20% of the LH2411 - C - 1300 call options. If one wants to avoid inventory impairment while not giving up the opportunity for a significant price increase, buy the LH2411 - P - 1100 put options [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - If there are future procurement plans and concerns about rising raw material prices, buy live pig forward contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs. If there are no suitable prices on the futures market, sell the LH2411 - P - 1100 put options. If one is worried about rising procurement prices but does not want to lock in procurement and sales profits in advance and believes that procurement costs may be lower, buy the LH2411 - C - 1300 call options [2]. 3.3 Pig Spot Prices - The national average spot price is 11.1 yuan/kg with no change. The prices in different regions vary: Henan is 11.28 yuan/kg (up 0.07 yuan/kg, 0.62%); Hunan is 10.76 yuan/kg (up 0.05 yuan/kg, 0.47%); Liaoning is 11.47 yuan/kg (down 0.11 yuan/kg, - 0.95%); Sichuan is 10.83 yuan/kg (up 0.1 yuan/kg, 0.93%); Guangdong is 11.46 yuan/kg with no change [8]. 3.4 Pig Futures Prices - Pig 01 contract closed at 11,670 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan/ton (- 1.97%); Pig 03 contract closed at 11,280 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan/ton (- 2.25%); Pig 05 contract closed at 11,920 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton (- 1.81%); Pig 07 contract closed at 12,720 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton (- 1.59%); Pig 09 contract closed at 13,515 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton (- 1.74%); Pig 11 contract closed at 11,050 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton (- 1.03%) [9]. 3.5 Pig Price Spreads and Basis - LH01 - 03 spread is 390 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (6.85%); LH03 - 05 spread is - 640 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (6.67%); LH05 - 07 spread is - 800 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (1.91%); LH07 - 09 spread is - 795 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (- 4.22%); LH09 - 11 spread is 2,465 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton (- 4.83%); LH11 - 01 spread is - 620 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton (- 16.22%); Henan - 01 contract basis is - 390 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton (- 43.88%); Henan - 05 contract basis is - 640 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton (- 31.18%); Henan - 09 contract basis is - 2,235 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan/ton (- 12.18%) [17][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. It indicates that the current market sentiment and stock market performance are favorable for a bond market rebound. Traders are advised not to chase the rising prices. Those with existing long positions can continue to hold, while those with empty positions should wait for price drops to build positions. [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Friday, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with long - term bonds showing larger gains. Spot bond yields declined across the board. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.32%. There were 164.8 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases, resulting in a net withdrawal of 244.2 billion yuan. [1] 3.2. Intraday News - Over 80 senators in the US Senate are prepared to empower President Trump to impose a maximum 500% tariff on China according to Bessent. The yield of two - year US Treasury bonds dropped to the lowest level since 2022, as credit concerns drove up safe - haven demand. [2] 3.3. Market Judgment - The A - share market adjusted more significantly today, with previous hot sectors experiencing sharp declines. Although the broader market has not yet broken out of the range - bound pattern, the ChiNext and STAR markets may enter a medium - term adjustment. Driven by this, treasury bond futures rose across the board, with TL performing the most prominently. [3] 3.4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 17 Price | 2025 - 10 - 16 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 10 - 17 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 10 - 16 Position (Lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.378 | 102.368 | 0.01 | 75015 | 74561 | 454 | | TF2512 | 105.775 | 105.705 | 0.07 | 161860 | 158704 | 3156 | | T2512 | 108.265 | 108.16 | 0.105 | 266722 | 261675 | 5047 | | TL2512 | 115.73 | 115.02 | 0.71 | 184963 | 182946 | 2017 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0216 | - 0.0216 | 0 | - | - | - | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.013 | - 0.0228 | 0.0098 | - | - | - | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0256 | 0.0489 | - 0.0233 | - | - | - | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.1525 | 0.2778 | - 0.1253 | - | - | - | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 23759 | 26753 | - 2994 | - | - | - | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 47873 | 42876 | 4997 | - | - | - | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 75516 | 62951 | 12565 | - | - | - | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 126789 | 110395 | 16394 | - | - | - | [4][5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The continuous futures of corn on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rebounded for three consecutive days after hitting the lowest point of the year on Tuesday, with the forward contracts leading the rise. The rebound was driven by an oversold rebound and capital flight. The reason for the capital flight was the increase in spot purchase entities. By the close on the 16th, all contracts except the 11th had risen in October. The 1 - 5 spread widened to 99 yuan/ton, indicating a market expectation of tight supply in the corn market next year, while the near - term contracts were still under pressure from the new grain listing [2]. - In late October, the listing volume of new - season corn will continue to increase. Although the expectation has improved, the current fundamental pressure still suppresses the spot price. About 30% of the new - season corn is yet to be harvested. It is too early to judge that the corn price has bottomed out, and the end of October or early November is an important time point [2]. - On Thursday, CBOT corn futures rose for the third consecutive day, reaching a one - and - a - half - week high, as reports indicated that the corn yield per unit in some parts of the US Midwest was lower than expected, and rainfall forecasts might delay field operations [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price - **Spot Prices**: In the corn market, the price at Jinzhou Port was 2140 yuan with a daily increase of 10 yuan, at Shekou Port was 2310 yuan with no change, and in Harbin was 2000 yuan with no change. In the corn starch market, the price in Shandong was 2730 yuan with a daily decrease of 10 yuan, in Jilin was 2550 yuan with no change, and in Heilongjiang was 2460 yuan with no change. The Jinzhou Port main - contract basis was 29 yuan with no change, and the Shandong main - contract basis was 354 yuan with a daily increase of 15 yuan [4]. - **Futures Prices**: For corn futures on October 16, compared with October 15, the 11 - contract price rose from 2101 to 2111 yuan (0.48% increase), the 01 - contract rose from 2127 to 2136 yuan (0.42% increase), the 03 - contract rose from 2157 to 2166 yuan (0.42% increase), the 05 - contract rose from 2218 to 2235 yuan (0.77% increase), the 07 - contract rose from 2232 to 2247 yuan (0.67% increase), and the 09 - contract remained unchanged at 2262 yuan. For corn starch futures, the 11 - contract price decreased from 2401 to 2376 yuan (-1.04% decrease), the 01 - contract decreased from 2418 to 2417 yuan (-0.04% decrease), the 03 - contract rose from 2435 to 2437 yuan (0.08% increase), the 05 - contract rose from 2529 to 2541 yuan (0.47% increase), the 07 - contract rose from 2539 to 2552 yuan (0.51% increase), and the 09 - contract rose from 2571 to 2594 yuan (0.89% increase). The average wheat price rose from 2464 to 2465 yuan (0.04% increase) [6]. - **US Market**: The CBOT corn main - contract price was 422 with a daily increase of 4.75 (1.14% increase), the COBT soybean main - contract price was 1011.75 with a daily increase of 4.75 (0.47% increase), the CBOT wheat main - contract price was 502.5 with a daily increase of 3.75 (0.75% increase). The US Gulf完税 price was 2098.49 with a daily increase of 8.18 (0.39% increase) and an import profit of 211.51, and the US West完税 price was 1950.42 with a daily increase of 8.44 (0.43% increase) and an import profit of 359.58 [27]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely Positive Factors**: The number of spot purchase entities continued to increase, making it more difficult to purchase at low prices. The pressure of domestic corn production increase was limited, imports remained low, and the futures forward contracts were expected to show resilience after the seasonal pressure [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The pig industry was in the process of capacity regulation, which might affect the long - term feed demand for corn. The release of new - season supply pressure still needed time, and the spot price continued to be under pressure. The number of incoming vehicles in Shandong remained high but was gradually decreasing, and the purchase price stopped falling. Rainfall in North China continued to affect the spot harvest [5]. Other Information - The registered corn warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 36709 lots on the previous day [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but short - term fluctuations will increase. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term fast - in - and - out operations. Dips are considered opportunities for medium - to long - term long - position building. Hold existing long positions with caution. The resistance level for London gold is 4500, and the support level is around 4300. For silver, the resistance is 55, and the support is 50 [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Thursday, precious metal prices continued to rise strongly. The US dollar index, US Treasury yields declined, the US stock market, Bitcoin, and crude oil fell. The silver lease rate rose again, indicating increased risks in the US financial market. The loan fraud and bad debt problems of two US banks triggered a credit crisis and a sell - off, with the US regional bank index in the stock market plummeting nearly 7% during the session. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4344.3 per ounce, up 3.4%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $53.43 per ounce, up 3.99%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 966.42 yuan per gram, up 1.84%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 12017 yuan per kilogram, up 2.93% [2] 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has significantly increased. Although it is still highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points rather than 50 basis points in October. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 3.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 96.3%. By December, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 85%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 14.6%. By January, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 38.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 52.8%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 12.02 tons to 1034.62 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF's holdings remained at 15422.61 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 48.1 tons to 982.3 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 64.3 tons to 1108.1 tons as of the week ending October 10 [3] 3. This Week's Focus - Due to the US government shutdown, many key data updates have been suspended. The release of the US September CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, may be postponed to October 24. There will be many speeches by Fed officials this week, which will provide more guidance for the FOMC meeting on October 31. On Saturday at 00:15, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will give a speech [3] 4. Precious Metal Spot and Futures Price Table - SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 966.42 yuan per gram, up 0.63%. SGX gold TD is at 967.29 yuan per gram, up 0.92%. CME gold main contract is at $4344.3 per ounce, up 2.83%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 12017 yuan per kilogram, up 0.43%. SGX silver TD is at 11981 yuan per kilogram, up 0.17%. CME silver main contract is at $53.43 per ounce, up 1.72%. The SHFE - TD gold spread is - 0.87 yuan per gram, down 147.28%. The SHFE - TD silver spread is 36 yuan per kilogram, up 66.67%. The CME gold - silver ratio is 81.3083, up 1.08% [5][6] 5. Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory is 80961 kilograms, up 7.81%. CME gold inventory is 1217.6426 tons, down 0.35%. SHFE gold position is 225159 lots, down 2.4%. SPDR gold position is 1034.62 tons, up 1.18%. SHFE silver inventory is 982.255 tons, down 4.68%. CME silver inventory is 15930.0729 tons, down 0.11%. SGX silver inventory is 1108.065 tons, down 5.49%. SHFE silver position is 468355 lots, down 1.98%. SLV silver position is 15422.606288 tons, unchanged [11] 6. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index is at 98.3445, down 0.35%. The US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.1279, down 0.04%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 45952.24 points, down 0.65%. WTI crude oil spot is at $57.46 per barrel, down 1.39%. LmeS copper 03 is at $10620 per ton, up 0.42%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 3.99%, down 1.48%. The 10 - year US real interest rate is 1.71%, down 2.84%. The 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread is 0.58%, up 5.45% [17]