Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Copper prices rose and then fell during the week. The rise was due to the positive impact of domestic anti - involution on commodities and the increased copper demand expectation from the Yajiang Hydropower Station construction. However, their short - term impact on copper should be limited. With the fading of anti - involution enthusiasm, copper prices may decline slightly in the next week. The last week of July will be a macro super - week, and copper prices may experience significant fluctuations. The weekly price range is expected to be between 79,200 - 78,200 yuan per ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - **Futures Prices**: The Shanghai copper main futures contract closed at around 79,200 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week decline of 0.56%. International copper closed at 70,360 yuan per ton, down 0.75%. LME copper 3 - month was at $9,796, up 0.02%. COMEX copper was at $580.4, up 3.99% [1][3] - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 copper was at 79,450 yuan per ton, up 1%. Shanghai Wumaot was at 79,535 yuan per ton, up 1.14%. Guangdong Nanchu was at 79,380 yuan per ton, up 1.07%. Yangtze Non - Ferrous was at 79,640 yuan per ton, up 1.18% [7] 2. Industry Situation - Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca open - pit mine in Chile is facing tailings storage problems, reducing this year's production forecast from 230,000 - 270,000 tons to 210,000 - 230,000 tons. The expansion project has exceeded the budget by $4 billion and been delayed for several years. However, Teck expects to solve the tailings problem soon and maintain its 2026 production forecast [2] 3. Inventory Status - **Domestic Inventories**: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts decreased by 57.81% to 16,133 tons, and Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 13.17% to 73,423 tons. International copper warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,667 tons [13] - **Overseas Inventories**: LME copper inventory increased by 5.16% to 128,475 tons, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 2.39% to 248,635 tons [13] 4. Intermediate Production and Utilization - **Output**: In June 2025, refined copper output was 1.302 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. Copper product output was 2.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [16] - **Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, the capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, scrap copper rods, copper strips, copper rods, and copper tubes were 62.32%, 32.01%, 68.73%, 51.52%, and 72.25% respectively [18] 5. Import Data - In June 2025, copper concentrate imports were 2.34969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Anode copper imports were 68,548 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Cathode copper imports were 300,506 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. Scrap copper imports were 183,244 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Copper product imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall trend of the stock index is positive, but it may experience a phased adjustment. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting this week [3]. - In the RMB exchange rate market, investors can use options to hedge tail risks. Focus on the progress of China - US trade consultations in the next week [2]. - For the container shipping industry, the SCFI European line has rebounded, but the near - term contracts may have a short - term correction, and the overall may fluctuate slightly downward [5]. - In the precious metals market, focus on the Fed FOMC meeting and important US economic data this week. The mid - to long - term trend of gold and silver may be bullish, while the short - term volatility is intense [5]. - For base metals, copper prices may decline slightly; aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term; zinc is in a high - level shock; nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within a certain range; tin prices may decline slightly; lead is mainly in a shock state [8][10][12][13][15][21]. - In the energy and chemical industry, crude oil is in a narrow - range shock adjustment stage; PX - PTA can be considered to expand the processing fee at low prices; for other energy and chemical products, pay attention to policy changes and market fundamentals [29][30][33]. - In the black metal market, the over - heated sentiment in the steel market may lead to a short - term correction, but the rise may not end; the contradiction in the iron ore market is accumulating; the coal - coke market may return to rationality; for silicon iron and silicon manganese, pay attention to risks [23][24][26][27]. - For agricultural products, the market game for live pigs has intensified [50]. Summaries by Related Catalogs RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: On Friday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1679 at 16:30, down 132 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1680 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1419, down 34 basis points [2]. - **Important Information**: Trump said the possibility of reaching an agreement with the EU was 50%, and most trade agreements would be reached before August. The Russian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate from 20% to 18% [2]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's independence is being challenged. Investors can use options to hedge tail risks. Focus on China - US trade consultations in the next week [2]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: On Friday, the stock index showed mixed trends, with the large - cap index falling and the small - and medium - cap index rising. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 573.69 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: China's industrial enterprise profits in June decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the equipment manufacturing industry played a prominent supporting role. The State Council executive meeting deployed measures for gradually promoting free pre - school education [3]. - **Core Logic**: The stock index may experience a phased adjustment, but the overall trend is positive. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting this week [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: On Friday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) contracts fluctuated after a sharp decline at the opening. As of the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed trends [4]. - **Important Information**: The freight quotes of Maersk and ONE for shipping from Shanghai to Rotterdam showed different changes [4]. - **Core Logic**: The SCFI European line has rebounded, but the near - term contracts may have a short - term correction, and the overall may fluctuate slightly downward [5]. Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - **Market Review**: Last week, the precious metals market showed a reverse V - shaped trend. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased sharply, and there was a large inflow of funds into US gold and silver ETFs at the beginning of the week, but the price reversed on Wednesday [5]. - **Important Information**: The US - Japan and US - EU trade agreements were close to being reached, and the domestic anti - involution policy led to a general rise in commodities and the stock market [5]. - **Core Logic**: Focus on the Fed FOMC meeting and important US economic data this week. The mid - to long - term trend may be bullish, while the short - term volatility is intense [5]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Review**: The main futures contract of Shanghai copper rose and then fell during the week, and the inventory showed different trends in different markets [8]. - **Important Information**: Teck Resources lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine due to tailings storage problems [8]. - **Core Logic**: Copper prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The price of Shanghai aluminum showed a slight increase, and the trading volume and positions changed. The price of alumina and cast aluminum alloy also had corresponding changes [9]. - **Important Information**: The anti - involution policy affected the market sentiment, and the exchange issued a position limit notice [9][10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, considering the influence of macro events and fundamentals [10]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc fell slightly, and the trading volume and positions decreased [12]. - **Important Information**: The "anti - involution" sentiment affected the market [12]. - **Core Logic**: Zinc is in a high - level shock. The supply may gradually shift from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak. Appropriate short - selling at high prices is recommended [12]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a strong trend during the week but回调 on Friday night. The price of stainless steel also showed an upward trend during the week [13]. - **Important Information**: The anti - involution policy and relevant news affected the market, and the supply of nickel ore was expected to be loose [14]. - **Core Logic**: Nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within the range of [118,000 - 126,000] yuan and [12,500 - 13,100] yuan respectively [15]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main futures contract of Shanghai tin rose and then fell during the week, and the inventory was stable [15]. - **Important Information**: The anti - involution policy affected the price [15]. - **Core Logic**: Tin prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades [16]. Lead - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai lead rose slightly, and the trading volume and positions increased [21]. - **Important Information**: The production of a refinery in Anhui recovered, and a large - scale recycled lead refinery in Inner Mongolia was expected to produce lead next week [21]. - **Core Logic**: Lead is mainly in a shock state, affected by the supply - demand relationship and market sentiment [22]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Speculative position reduction and inventory increase suppressed oil prices, and the prices of US and Brent crude oil futures fell [29]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced that the US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and the Houthi armed forces upgraded the maritime blockade [29]. - **Core Logic**: The crude oil market is in a narrow - range shock adjustment stage. Pay attention to the results of important macro meetings this week [30]. PTA - PX - **Market Review**: PX - PTA was generally strong under the influence of commodity sentiment and polyester demand improvement [30]. - **Important Information**: PX Tianjin Petrochemical carried out maintenance, and there were rumors of PTA plant maintenance in August [30][31]. - **Core Logic**: The PX - TA industry chain has limited fundamental drivers. Consider expanding the processing fee at low prices [32]. Other Energy and Chemical Products - **Market Review and Core Logic**: Each product has different market performances and core logics, mainly affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and market sentiments. For example, MEG - bottle chips are recommended to wait and see; methanol is mainly driven by macro factors; PP and PE are affected by macro emotions and fundamentals; PVC is recommended to wait and see in the short term; BZ and styrene are affected by macro emotions and fundamentals; fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil have different supply - demand and inventory situations; asphalt follows the cost - end shock; urea is expected to fluctuate weakly; glass and soda ash are affected by anti - involution expectations and fundamentals; pulp is driven by macro emotions;烧碱 focuses on near - month warehouse receipts [32][33][35][37][38][39][41][42][43][44][45][47][48][50]. Black Metal Market Steel - **Market Review**: On Friday night, coking coal hit the daily limit down, and black metal varieties followed suit [23]. - **Important Information**: The profits of industrial enterprises in the first half of the year were announced, and there were price adjustment and position limit news in the coking coal market [23]. - **Core Logic**: The over - heated sentiment in the steel market may lead to a short - term correction, but the rise may not end. Pay attention to the actual demand and tariff policies [23]. Iron Ore - **Market Review**: The price of iron ore has corrected, while coking coal has maintained a strong upward trend [23]. - **Important Information**: The global iron ore shipping volume is at a seasonal high, and the dry bulk freight has increased [24]. - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals of iron ore are okay, but the room for improvement is limited. The contradiction in the market is accumulating, and it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Review**: The price of coking coal and coke fluctuated greatly this week, and the coking coal futures limit on Friday night caused the price to fall [24][26]. - **Important Information**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke have changed, and the inventory situation is different [25]. - **Core Logic**: The coal - coke market may return to rationality, and pay attention to the Politburo meeting and China - US trade negotiations [26]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - **Market Review**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rose last week, and they were affected by the anti - involution meeting and the decline of coking coal futures on Friday night [27]. - **Important Information**: The supply and demand, inventory, and profit of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed [27]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term risk of chasing high is high, and pay attention to the implementation of policies and risk control [28]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Review**: The futures price of live pigs showed a slight increase [50]. - **Important Information**: No specific important information is provided. - **Core Logic**: The market game for live pigs has intensified [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's investment rating for the lead industry is "Oscillation" [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, the lead price showed a range-bound oscillation, and the anti-involution sentiment had little driving force on lead. The supply side remained relatively stable, with the electrolytic lead operating rate steady and the secondary lead smelting still in a loss state due to cost support and scarce raw materials. The demand side improved slightly compared to last week as the low lead price prompted downstream enterprises to replenish stocks at low prices. However, the lead battery operating rate remained sluggish, and the demand was still weak in the short term. It is expected that the lead market will maintain an oscillatory trend in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Disk Review - This week, the lead price was in a range-bound oscillation, closing at 16,955 yuan per ton. The inventory of lead ingots in five domestic regions was 71,400 tons, and the LME inventory was 266,300 tons [1] Industrial Performance - Due to the resumption of production of a smelter in Anhui this week, the regional operating rate increased by 6.6 percentage points. A large secondary lead smelter in Inner Mongolia is in the furnace-drying stage and is expected to produce lead next week. From January to June 2025, the monthly average sequential growth rate of electric bicycles sold through the trade-in program was 113.5%, and the output of the top ten brands of electric bicycles increased by 27.6% year-on-year. A total of 846,500 electric bicycles were traded in and replaced each, and 82,000 sales outlets participated in the program, with an average increase in single-store sales of 302,000 yuan [1] Core Logic - This week, the lead price was in a range-bound oscillation, and the anti-involution sentiment had little impact on lead. On the supply side, there was little change, with the electrolytic lead operating rate remaining stable. Secondary lead was still in a loss state due to cost support and scarce raw materials. On the demand side, it improved compared to last week as the low lead price led to downstream restocking. However, the lead battery operating rate remained weak, and the demand was still weak in the short term. It is expected that the market will maintain an oscillatory trend [2] Nanhua's Viewpoint - The lead market is expected to be mainly oscillatory [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's investment rating for the zinc industry is mainly "oscillating" [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, zinc prices showed a wide - range oscillation, closing at 22,885 yuan per ton. Domestic zinc ingot inventories are at a low level in recent years, and LME inventories are also decreasing. The overall zinc market was strongly influenced by anti - involution sentiment this week, remaining relatively strong, but the upward momentum was insufficient after Monday, gradually moving towards high - level oscillation, with a decline in Friday's night session [1] - In the short term, if there are no strong policy measures to stimulate the non - ferrous industry again, the market will return to fundamentals, and it is advisable to sell on rallies overall [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - **Futures Market**: The closing price of SHFE zinc futures' main contract was 22,885 yuan, up 3.41% week - on - week; LME zinc closed at 2,823.5 dollars, up 4.15% week - on - week [6] - **Spot Market**: The price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,770 yuan per ton, up 2.02% week - on - week; 1 zinc ingot was 22,700 yuan per ton, also up 2.02% week - on - week [16] 2. Industry News - **Canadian Mining Company Teck Resources**: In Q2 2025, Red Dog mine produced 136,600 metal tons of zinc concentrate, slightly down year - on - year due to lower ore grades; lead concentrate production remained stable at 27,500 tons. The sales volume of zinc concentrate in Q2 was 35,100 metal tons, down 35% year - on - year, but still higher than the guidance range. Teck expects the inventory accumulated in the first half of the year to be released in Q3, with a sales guidance range of 200,000 - 250,000 metal tons. Trail smelter produced 50,900 tons of refined zinc in Q2, 14,000 tons less than last year, in line with the company's plan to maximize profitability by reducing production [2] - **Glencore**: Glencore announced on July 22 that it would sell its Lady Loretta zinc mine and related land to Austral Resources. Lady Loretta is expected to close at the end of 2025, and after its closure, the lead - zinc concentrate production of Mount Isa may decrease by about one - third [3] 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Mining End**: In June, zinc ore imports declined, but were still strong year - on - year. The port inventory of zinc concentrates in China was 354,000 tons, up 86,000 tons week - on - week [1] - **Smelting End**: The operating rate of smelters remained strong this week, with a strong willingness to resume production. The treatment charge (TC) continued to rise, and profit repair was stable [3] - **Demand Side**: The operating rate of downstream industries mainly decreased week - on - week, affected by the off - season of consumption and high zinc prices this week, showing a weak performance [3] 4. Inventory Situation - Domestic inventories increased due to high zinc prices, showing short - term oscillation. With the resumption of smelter production and weak downstream demand, inventories may gradually rise. LME zinc inventories are at a low level in recent years, supporting zinc prices [5] 5. Production and Utilization Rate - In June 2025, the capacity utilization rate of zinc concentrates was 100.81%, with a month - on - month increase of 10.45% and a year - on - year increase of 4.03% [33] - In June 2025, the production of refined zinc was 496,700 tons, down 1.88% year - on - year; the production of zinc concentrates was 328,300 tons, up 4.75% year - on - year [33] 6. Import and Export Data - In June 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 329,957 tons, up 22.42% year - on - year; the import volume of refined zinc was 36,061 tons, up 3.24% year - on - year [36] 7. Supply - Demand Balance - In June 2025, the supply - demand balance of zinc concentrates was - 2,000 metal tons, down 96.5% year - on - year and 103.85% month - on - month; the supply - demand balance of refined zinc was 24,000 tons, down 2500.00% year - on - year and 211.11% month - on - month [45] 8. Downstream Consumption - The weekly operating rates of galvanizing, zinc oxide, and die - casting zinc alloys were 59.42%, 55.99%, and 51.03% respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 0.3%, - 0.33%, and - 0.92% [48]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 28, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the copper industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Copper prices recently rose and then fell. The rise was due to the positive impact of domestic anti - involution on commodities and increased copper demand expectations from Yajiang Hydropower Station construction. However, the short - term impact of both factors on copper should be limited. The supply side has no significant over - capacity to eliminate, and anti - involution in the downstream is more negative than positive for demand. The long construction cycle of the hydropower station means low initial copper demand. The increase in copper prices was likely a passive rise due to capital overflow from other sectors. In the short term, as the anti - involution hype fades, copper prices may decline slightly. The upcoming week is a macro super - week with significant events that could cause large price fluctuations in copper during the last week of July [3]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,250 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, with a long spot position, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract near 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, with a short spot position, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract near 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, lower LME inventory levels, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and anti - involution benefiting the non - ferrous metals sector [4][7] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [7] Copper Futures Market Data | Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 79,250 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 79,250 | - 640 | - 0.8% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 79,240 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,796 | - 58.5 | - 0.59% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | ratio | 8.06 | - 0.06 | - 0.74% | [6][8] Copper Spot Market Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 79,450 | - 345 | - 0.43% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade | yuan/ton | 79,535 | - 220 | - 0.28% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve | yuan/ton | 79,380 | - 270 | - 0.34% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 79,640 | - 280 | - 0.35% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 125 | - 20 | - 13.79% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 115 | 10 | 9.52% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 115 | 15 | 15% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 125 | 0 | 0% | [10] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread Data | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | 840.74 | - 463.62 | - 35.54% | | Reasonable Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | 1,492.45 | - 5.7 | - 0.38% | | Price Advantage (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | - 651.71 | - 457.92 | 236.3% | | Current Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 5,545 | - 470 | - 7.81% | | Reasonable Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 6,199.6 | - 39.56 | - 0.63% | | Price Advantage (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | - 654.6 | - 430.44 | 192.02% | [12] Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data - **SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts**: Total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 16,133 tons, a decrease of 0.31%. International Copper warehouse receipts total 4,667 tons, unchanged. Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai are 4,565 tons, a decrease of 1.08%. Bonded total is 0 tons, a 100% decrease. Tax - paid total is 16,133 tons, a decrease of 0.31% [15] - **LME Copper Inventory**: Total LME copper inventory is 128,475 tons, an increase of 2.97%. European inventory is 26,200 tons, a decrease of 4.38%. Asian inventory is 102,275 tons, an increase of 5.03%. North American inventory is 0 tons, a 100% decrease. Registered warehouse receipts total 109,625 tons, an increase of 4.48%. Cancelled warehouse receipts total 18,850 tons, a decrease of 5.04% [17] - **COMEX Copper Inventory**: Total COMEX copper inventory is 248,635 tons, an increase of 2.39%. Registered warehouse receipts total 109,064 tons, an increase of 1%. Cancelled warehouse receipts total 139,571 tons, a decrease of 0.22% [20] Copper Import and Processing Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit/Loss | yuan/ton | - 482.5 | - 9.52 | 2.01% | | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 42.75 | 0.15 | - 0.35% | [21]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 28, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - There is no report industry investment rating provided in the content. Core View - The recent rise in tin prices was mainly due to the boost to the non - ferrous metals sector from anti - involution, with little change in its own fundamentals. Considering the obvious oligopoly situation in the upstream of tin and the suppression of the downstream, the rise is understandable. In the short term, as the anti - involution heat fades, tin prices may decline slightly. Investors should also pay attention to the impact of various macro events in the last week of July on tin prices [3] Content Summary by Category Price Volatility and Forecast - The latest closing price of tin is 271,630 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - For those with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, the strategy is to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For those with low raw - material inventory worried about price increases, the strategy is to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] Factors Affecting Prices Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy relaxation; the semiconductor sector is still in an expansion cycle; Myanmar's resumption of production is lower than expected; anti - involution benefits the entire non - ferrous metals sector [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations; Myanmar's tin ore starts to flow into China; the semiconductor sector's expansion speed slows down and gradually moves from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5] Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 271,630 yuan/ton (0 change, 0% change), the Shanghai Tin continuous - one is 272,120 yuan/ton (0 change, 0% change), the Shanghai Tin continuous - three is 271,890 yuan/ton (0 change, 0% change), the LME Tin 3M is 34,140 US dollars/ton (- 520, - 1.5% change), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.86 (0.12, 1.55% change) [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingots is 271,100 yuan/ton (5,600 change, 2.11% change), 1 tin premium is 700 yuan/ton (200 change, 40% change), 40% tin concentrate is 259,100 yuan/ton (5,600 change, 2.21% change), 60% tin concentrate is 263,100 yuan/ton (5,600 change, 2.17% change), etc. [11] Import and Processing Data - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 21,486.26 yuan/ton (- 307.4 change, 1.45% change). The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton (0 change, 0% change), and the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton (0 change, 0% change) [15] Inventory Data Daily Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,125 tons (262 change, 3.82% change), including 4,636 tons in Guangdong (102 change, 2.25% change) and 1,608 tons in Shanghai (160 change, 11.05% change). The total LME tin inventory is 1,690 tons (0 change, 0% change) [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For MEG, under the recent "anti - involution" logic, the polyester sector is generally strong, but the substantial impact mainly lies in the rebound of coal prices on the cost side. The supply - side impact is expected to be limited. The inventory accumulation in the third quarter has significantly decreased, and the near - end supply - demand has marginally improved. It is recommended to wait and see before the "anti - involution" policy is implemented. For bottle chips, the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side, and the cash - flow processing fee has been slightly compressed recently, with the disk processing fee mainly for range operation [2]. - For PX - TA, the PX - PTA is generally strong driven by commodity sentiment and marginal improvement in polyester demand. The current fundamental driving force of the PX - TA industry chain is limited, and the impact of the "anti - involution" policy is difficult to assess. It is advisable to wait for further policy announcements. The near - end supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the industrial chain profit still tends to be concentrated upstream. In the short term, there may be PTA production - cut and price - support actions, and it is advisable to expand the processing fee at low prices [3][5]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs MEG - **Inventory**: The inventory at East China ports decreased to 53.3 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to the previous period. Next Monday, the port's visible inventory is expected to increase by about 30,000 tons [1]. - **Device**: Shenhua Yulin recently reduced its load for maintenance; Jianyuan, Yueneng, and Yangmei Shouyang recently restarted and increased their loads; Zhonghuaxue is in the process of heating up and restarting but has not produced output yet. Overseas, four sets of 2.15 million - ton production capacity devices in Saudi Arabia that were temporarily shut down have restarted, and a 700,000 - ton device of US Lotte has shut down recently [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total supply load increased to 68.35% (+2.15%), and the coal - based load increased to 74.36% (+2.15%). The demand side saw a slight increase in the load of filament and staple fiber, and the polyester load rebounded to 88.7% (+0.4%) [2]. - **Profit**: The profits of each route have been significantly repaired, and the EO - 1.3EG ratio has weakened significantly [2]. PX - TA - **PX**: Tianjin Petrochemical of PX shut down for maintenance as planned, and the load decreased to 79.9% (-1.2%). There is an expectation of increased supply in August. The PX link's efficiency has been further repaired [3][4]. - **PTA**: The PTA device has been operating stably, and the load remained at 79.9% (+0.2%). The social inventory has increased to 2.22 million tons (+20,000 tons). The TA cash - flow processing fee has been compressed again, and it has reached a historical low [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The demand side saw a slight increase in the load of filament and staple fiber, and the polyester load rebounded to 88.7% (+0.4%). The filament sales were good this week, and the inventory pressure of finished filament products has been significantly relieved [4]. Polyester - **Load**: The comprehensive polyester load rebounded to 88.7% (+0.4%), the filament load increased to 91.3% (+0.8%), and the staple fiber load increased to 90.6% (+1.1%) [2][8]. - **Sales**: This week, affected by the increase in raw material prices, the downstream speculative sentiment and replenishment rhythm led to good filament sales, and the inventory pressure of finished filament products has been significantly relieved [2]. - **Profit**: The profits of each product have different degrees of change, with the POY profit decreasing by 24 yuan/ton, the FDY profit increasing by 26 yuan/ton, etc. [8]. Device Information - **MEG Device Maintenance**: Multiple ethylene - based and coal - based MEG devices are in the process of shutdown, maintenance, or restart, with different expected restart times [12]. - **PX Device Maintenance**: Many domestic and overseas PX devices are under maintenance, with different expected restart times [13]. - **PTA Device Maintenance**: Many domestic and overseas PTA devices are shut down, with different expected restart times [14]. Production and Investment Plans - **PX**: There is currently no planned production capacity for PX in the short term, and the subsequent planned production capacity is 8.5 million tons [15]. - **PTA**: The planned production capacity in 2025 is 8.7 million tons, and the subsequent planned production capacity is 14.7 million tons [15]. - **MEG**: The planned production capacity in 2025 is 1.6 million tons, and the subsequent planned production capacity is 3.8 million tons [15]. - **Polyester**: The total planned production capacity in 2025 is 485,000 tons, covering various products such as filaments, bottle chips, and slices [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The current crude oil market is in a narrow - range shock adjustment phase, with the center of fluctuation moving down. The support comes from the demand side, but the incremental demand space is limited due to the seasonal decline. The market's operating logic remains unchanged, still in the adjustment stage after the sharp fluctuations caused by geopolitical events. The market is supported by peak - season demand, and recent trade agreements between the US and multiple countries and economies have boosted the macro - sentiment [4]. - The crude oil market lacks clear guidance from news recently. Next week is a macro super - week with multiple important meetings, including China - US economic and trade negotiations from July 27th to 30th, the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the Fed's interest - rate meeting at 3:00 am on July 31st. Also, the US tariff deadline is on August 1st, and the OPEC + 8 - country meeting will be held on August 3rd. Attention should be paid to the possibility of positive news from the China - US economic and trade negotiations and the reaction of the crude oil market after OPEC +'s production increase in September [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends - The Trump administration approved Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela. The details of the agreement are unclear, and the move has received different reactions. Chevron will comply with relevant laws and regulations [4]. - South Korea and Japan plan to strengthen cooperation on oil supply security due to the Israel - Iran conflict, discussing issues such as oil reserve policies [4]. - Syria issued a tender for 500,000 barrels of heavy crude oil on July 24th. The US has gradually lifted sanctions on Syria, but it's unclear about the source of this oil sale, whether it marks Syria's return to the international oil market, and potential buyers [6]. - There are many differences between the US and Japan on the details of the tariff agreement. The 15% "reciprocal" tariff may take effect on August 1st, and the 550 - billion - dollar investment commitment from Japan to the US has many uncertainties [6]. EIA Weekly Inventory - For the week ending July 18th in the US, EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.169 million barrels (expected - 1.565 million barrels, previous value - 3.859 million barrels); strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels (previous value - 300,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 455,000 barrels (previous value + 213,000 barrels); gasoline inventory decreased by 1.738 million barrels (expected - 908,000 barrels, previous value + 3.399 million barrels); refined oil inventory increased by 2.931 million barrels (expected - 1.135 million barrels, previous value + 4.173 million barrels) [7]. - US crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil imports were 5.976 million barrels per day, a decrease of 403,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. Crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 95.5% (expected 93.4%, previous value 93.9%) [7].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The recent increase in ferroalloys is due to strong policy expectations and support from coal - based prices. Last Friday, influenced by the news of an anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises, both ferroalloys hit the daily limit. There is a high risk of chasing high prices in the short term, especially after the sharp decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which may lead to a correction in ferroalloys. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloys is relatively small, with low operating rates. Silicon iron has high inventory but is gradually reducing it, while silicon manganese's inventory reduction is accelerating. The market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance is weak. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - Silicon iron: In the main production areas, the price of 72 - grade silicon iron in Inner Mongolia is 5600 yuan/ton (+250), and in Ningxia is 5600 yuan/ton (+270). In trading areas, it is 5900 yuan/ton (+400) in Hebei and Tianjin. Silicon manganese: In the northern production area (Inner Mongolia), the market price of 6517 - grade silicon manganese is 5700 yuan/ton (+70), in the southern production area (Guangxi) is 5720 yuan/ton (+50), and in the trading area (Jiangsu) is 6090 yuan/ton (+100) [2]. Cost and Profit - For silicon iron, the profit in Inner Mongolia's production area is +79 yuan/ton (+250), and in Ningxia's production area is 226 yuan/ton (+270). For silicon manganese, the profit in the northern region is - 66.74 yuan/ton (-0.1), and in the southern region is - 430.33 yuan/ton (-5.13). Manganese ore port inventory is increasing, and the shipment of Australian ore is expected to resume [2]. Supply - Silicon iron: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises is 33.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.88%, and the weekly output is 10.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3%. Silicon manganese: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises is 41.58%, a week - on - week increase of 1.05%, and the weekly output is 18.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.02%. Although the profit of ferroalloy plants has recovered, facing weak downstream demand, the operating rates remain low [3]. Demand - Steel mills have good profits, and high pig iron production supports the demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese. Pig iron production has rebounded above the seasonal level this week. On the other hand, the slow inventory reduction of five major steel products limits the further production space of steel mills, and the growth space of silicon iron and silicon manganese is limited. In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the overall black sector is declining, causing doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, and the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak. This week, the demand for silicon iron in five major steel products is 2.01 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%; the demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products is 12.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.24% [3]. Inventory - Silicon iron: This week, the enterprise inventory is 6.21 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2%, the warehouse receipt inventory is 11.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.73%, and the total inventory is 17.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%. Silicon manganese: The enterprise inventory is 20.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.22%, the warehouse receipt is 38.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.85%, and the total inventory is 59.33 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.69%. Silicon iron currently has high inventory pressure, while the inventory pressure of silicon manganese is weakening [3].

Group 1: Report Summary - The Shanghai Nickel main contract showed an overall volatile and upward trend, closing at 124,360 yuan/ton, while the stainless steel main contract also trended upward, closing at 13,030 yuan/ton [2]. - In the spot market, Jinchuan Nickel maintained a premium, battery - grade nickel sulfate had an average price of 27,280 yuan/ton, and the profit margins of nickel - stainless steel products showed different trends [2]. Group 2: Core Logic - The Shanghai Nickel futures price was strong during the week but retreated on Friday night due to factors such as anti - involution price guidance. The cost support of nickel - iron has been adjusted [3]. - The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose. The rainfall in the main mining areas in the Philippines has improved, and the nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia has declined [3]. - The price of nickel sulfate remained stable, and the downstream demand for new - energy nickel salts was weak. The price of nickel - iron continued to decline, and the bottom support of nickel - stainless steel strengthened [3]. - The cost support of stainless steel increased, and the market sentiment was boosted by the production cuts of leading manufacturers. However, the market transactions were mainly in a wait - and - see state [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The nickel - stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan for nickel and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan for stainless steel [3]. Group 4: Market Data Nickel Futures - The latest price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 124,360 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 830 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.67% [4]. - The trading volume increased by 51.98% week - on - week, and the open interest increased by 178.0% [4]. Stainless Steel Futures - The latest price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,030 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 100 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1% [5]. - The trading volume increased by 4.36% week - on - week, and the open interest increased by 0.56% [5]. Nickel Spot - The price of Jinchuan Nickel was 125,650 yuan/ton, with no daily change [6]. Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel was 40,281 tons, a decrease of 57 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - The LME nickel inventory was 203,922 tons, a decrease of 534 tons [7]. Stainless Steel Inventory - The stainless steel social inventory was 967,400 tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons [7].