Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - Today, stock index fluctuated widely with different trends for large - and small - cap stocks. Large - cap index closed up, while small - and medium - cap index continued to decline. High - dividend sectors represented by banks and cyclical industries such as food and beverage and medicine led the rise, driving the large - cap index up [5]. - Trading volume continued to shrink. After two months, the trading volume of the two markets dropped below two trillion yuan, and the margin trading ratio also declined rapidly, indicating strong market wait - and - see sentiment. With lack of volume support and dull information, short - term volatile market will continue [5]. - Short - term trend trading is difficult to capture due to wide market fluctuations. Index futures cross - variety arbitrage can be tried. Considering market risk aversion suppressing small - cap stocks and the decreasing popularity of high - valued technology leaders, the relative advantage of large - cap index is expected to continue periodically [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Stock index trends were mixed today. For example, the CSI 300 index closed up 0.26%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 141.721 billion yuan. In the index futures market, IF rose with decreasing volume, IH rose with increasing volume, and IC and IM fell with decreasing volume [3]. Important Information - On October 16, 2025, at the Sustainable Global Leaders Conference, Bi Xiaoying of the CSRC said that the CSRC will guide the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges to enrich the compilation guidelines based on the "Guidelines for Information Disclosure of Sustainable Development Reports of Listed Companies" according to enterprise needs, and conduct policy evaluation after mandatory disclosure next year to optimize the disclosure system [4]. - Trump claimed that India promised to stop buying Russian oil, and India responded that it prioritizes consumer interests. The Chinese Foreign Ministry opposed the US using China - related issues in trade negotiations [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Pay attention to the trading opportunity of going long on IF and short on IM [6]. Futures Market Observation | Index |主力日内涨跌幅（%）|成交量（万手）|成交量环比（万手）|持仓量（万手）|持仓量环比（万手）| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.38 | 15.3473 | - 0.2094 | 27.4819 | - 0.228 | | IH | 0.80 | 7.6311 | 0.5009 | 10.3884 | 0.6373 | | IC | - 1.01 | 15.8548 | - 2.4066 | 25.3051 | - 0.8459 | | IM | - 0.95 | 24.9753 | - 4.3401 | 35.5481 | - 1.475 | [6] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.10 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | - 0.25 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.28 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 1931.138 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous day (billion yuan) | - 141.721 | [8]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 16, 2025 - Analyst: Xia Yingying - Research Assistant: Yu Weihan [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: The low - electricity - price environment in Southwest China during the wet season is ending, which will slow down and potentially decrease the growth rate of the ore - heating furnace operating rate. The furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also lower than expected, showing a slow - down trend. The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak, and the risk of inventory accumulation will ease [4]. - **Demand**: The demand from the organic silicon industry has limited changes, while the demand from the recycled aluminum alloy field remains stable. The polysilicon sector is expected to see a steady increase in demand for industrial silicon in the next two months [4]. - **Market Outlook**: If the supply - side operating rate declines as expected and the downstream polysilicon demand improves, the oversupply situation may ease, and the industry may reach a price bottom - reversal point [4]. Polysilicon - **Core Logic**: The price trend of polysilicon futures depends on factors such as the establishment of the photovoltaic storage platform in October, the pressure of concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation in November, the stability and increase of component bid - winning prices, and the increase of photovoltaic grid - connected electricity prices [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term trading focus is on whether the storage platform will be established in October, and then it will shift to the expectation game of concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation in November. High volatility and risks are associated with polysilicon futures [10]. Summary by Catalog Industrial Silicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8605 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan (0.41%) and a weekly decrease of 35 yuan (- 0.41%) [12]. - The trading volume of the main contract is 209,588 lots, a daily decrease of 15,480 lots (- 6.88%) and a weekly decrease of 943 lots (- 0.45%) [13]. - The open interest of the main contract is 131,649 lots, a daily decrease of 10,732 lots (- 7.54%) and a weekly decrease of 44,914 lots (- 25.44%) [13]. 2. Spot Data - The price of 99 industrial silicon in Xinjiang is 8750 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly decrease of 100 yuan (- 1.13%) [21]. - The price of 553 industrial silicon in Tianjin is 9250 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly decrease of 50 yuan (- 0.54%) [21]. - The price of 421 industrial silicon in Yunnan is 9950 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly change [21]. 3. Basis and Warehouse - Receipt Data - The total warehouse - receipt volume is 50,291 lots, a decrease of 66 lots (0.21%) from the previous period [36]. - The warehouse - receipt volume in Tianjin delivery warehouse increased by 223 tons (0.84%) week - on - week [36]. Polysilicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 52,575 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1710 yuan (3.36%) and a weekly increase of 1810 yuan (3.57%) [37]. - The trading volume of the main contract is 266,129 lots, a daily decrease of 10,047 lots (- 3.64%) and a weekly increase of 64,818 lots (32.20%) [37]. - The open interest of the main contract is 78,885 lots, a daily decrease of 1229 lots (- 1.53%) and a weekly decrease of 6102 lots (- 7.18%) [37]. 2. Spot Data - The price of N - type polysilicon re - feeding material is 52.75 yuan/kg, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.2 yuan (0.38%) [45]. - The price of N - type silicon wafers (G10 - 182, 130um) is 1.35 yuan/piece, with no daily or weekly change [45]. 3. Basis and Warehouse - Receipt Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 85 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1710 yuan (- 95.26%) and a weekly decrease of 1510 yuan (- 94.67%) [55]. - The total polysilicon warehouse - receipt volume is 7950 lots, a decrease of 100 lots from the previous period [56].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but short - term fluctuations are increasing. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term fast - in - fast - out operations. Pullbacks are considered opportunities for medium - to long - term long positions, and existing long positions should be held with caution. The resistance levels for London gold are 4300 and 4500, and the support is in the 4150 area; for silver, the resistance is 55 and the support is 50 [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, precious metal prices continued to be strong. The US dollar index declined, European and American stocks showed mixed performance, Bitcoin continued to fall, and crude oil fluctuated. The silver lease rate rose again, indicating a severe shortage of physical silver. The results of the US "232" investigation on silver and palladium are expected to be submitted on October 19, which involves the sensitive issue of whether the US will impose a 50% tariff on silver and palladium. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4224.9 per ounce, up 1.48%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $52.525 per ounce, up 3.76%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 960.34 yuan per gram, up 2.09%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11966 yuan per kilogram, up 2.3% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations are generally stable. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 2.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 97.3%. For December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 0.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 5.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 94.2%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 2.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 47.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 50.1%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 1.15 tons to 1022.6 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 310.48 tons to 15422.61 tons. In terms of inventory, the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 32.7 tons to 1030.4 tons per day; as of the week ending October 10, the SGX silver inventory decreased by 64.3 tons to 1108.1 tons per week [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, pay attention to the US September retail sales and PPI data tonight. Due to the US government shutdown, the release of the US September CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, will be postponed to October 24. In terms of events, there will be intensive speeches by Fed officials this week, which will provide more guidance for the US FOMC meeting on October 31. At 21:00 on Thursday, Fed Governor Waller will give a speech; at 00:15 on Saturday, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will give a speech. Also, at 02:00 on Thursday, the Fed will release the Beige Book on economic conditions [4].

Report Introduction - The report is the Nanhua Soybean No. 1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report dated October 16, 2025, written by Bian Shuyang and research assistant Kang Quangui [1][2] Price Forecast and Risk Strategy Price Forecast - The price range forecast for the Soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3850 - 4000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.53% and a historical percentile of 16.8% [3] Risk Strategy - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long - spot positions like planting subjects with high new - bean selling needs in autumn but facing large selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 Soybean No. 1 futures contract at a 30% hedging ratio when the price is between 4000 - 4050. Also, for the situation of concentrated listing and weakened seller bargaining power, sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call option at a 30% ratio when the price is between 30 - 50 [3] - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those with short - spot positions worried about rising raw material prices, it is advisable to mainly wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter and focus on forward procurement management, with a long position in A2603 and A2605 contracts [3] Core Contradictions and Market Analysis Core Contradictions - Tensions in Sino - US trade relations have driven up the futures price, with the main 2601 contract breaking through the 4000 - yuan mark and the near - month 11 contract approaching it. However, the spot price has not risen in sync, leading to a weaker basis and theoretical delivery profit on the futures. Imported soybeans are currently in sufficient supply, and the support from the future shortage of imported soybeans for domestic soybeans needs time to materialize. New - grain listing pressure remains, and there is a risk of price decline above 4000 yuan. The current domestic soybean market is in the peak harvest and listing season, with ample supply and significant price pressure. Low - protein new - season soybeans are weakly priced, and prices may continue to fall. State reserve purchases are likely in a wait - and - see stage [4] 利多 Factors - Tensions in Sino - US trade relations provide emotional support for domestic soybeans - There are expectations for state reserve procurement policies - The purchase demand driven by the grain - returning operation in two - way auctions provides short - term market support [4] 利空 Factors - During the new - grain listing period, the spot price is prone to fall and difficult to rise [4] Price and Market Data Spot Price and Basis - On October 15, 2025, the spot price of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin was 3880 yuan/ton with a basis of - 119; in Nenjiang, it was 3820 yuan/ton with a basis of - 133; in Jiamusi, it was 3900 yuan/ton with a basis of - 53; and in Changchun, it was 3950 yuan/ton with a basis of - 3 [4] Futures Closing Price - On October 15, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing price of Soybean No. 1 11 contract was 3981 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.71%; the 01 contract was 3999 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan or 0.81%; the 03 contract was 3999 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.71%; the 05 contract was 4032 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 0.60%; the 07 contract was 4030 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.55%; and the 09 contract was 4033 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan or 0.57% [6]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: October 16, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0021819) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The near - month contract of the Dalian Commodity Exchange corn futures rebounded after quickly breaking below the 2,100 yuan mark, pricing in bullish factors such as increased spot buyers, the judgment of short - term negative and long - term positive impacts of corn quality issues in North China, and the release of downward momentum after the futures price approached the cost line [2]. - The structure of the contracts shows a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength, with the 1 - 5 spread widening to nearly 100 yuan/ton. The pricing of the forward contracts reflects the market's relatively optimistic sentiment towards the corn market next year, while the near - month contracts are still under pressure from the new grain listing. Although there is a short - term rebound, the upward space may be limited [2]. - The spot market is weaker than the futures market, with prices mostly falling. The listing of new grain continues to dominate the market, and the pressure on the spot market needs time to digest. Attention should be paid to the end of the month when the new grain harvest nears its end, which may be an important node for spot prices [2]. - The CBOT corn futures price has been oscillating narrowly after breaking through support, and the delay in report releases due to the government shutdown has left the market lacking guidance [2]. Summary by Content Market Conditions - **Futures Prices**: On October 15, 2025, compared with October 14, corn futures prices generally rose. Corn 11 rose by 8 yuan to 2,101 yuan, with a 0.38% increase; Corn 01 rose by 16 yuan to 2,127 yuan, with a 0.76% increase; Corn 03 rose by 17 yuan to 2,157 yuan, with a 0.79% increase; Corn 05 rose by 16 yuan to 2,218 yuan, with a 0.73% increase; Corn 07 rose by 14 yuan to 2,232 yuan, with a 0.63% increase; Corn 09 remained unchanged at 2,247 yuan. Corn starch futures prices also mostly rose. Corn starch 11 rose by 16 yuan to 2,401 yuan, with a 0.67% increase; Corn starch 01 rose by 17 yuan to 2,418 yuan, with a 0.71% increase; Corn starch 03 rose by 13 yuan to 2,435 yuan, with a 0.54% increase; Corn starch 05 rose by 12 yuan to 2,529 yuan, with a 0.48% increase; Corn starch 07 rose by 12 yuan to 2,539 yuan, with a 0.47% increase; Corn starch 09 rose by 1 yuan to 2,571 yuan, with a 0.04% increase [3][6]. - **Spot Prices**: Among corn spot prices, the price at Jinzhou Port was 2,130 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price at Shekou Port was 2,310 yuan, unchanged; the price in Harbin was 2,000 yuan, down 20 yuan. Among corn starch spot prices, the price in Shandong was 2,740 yuan, unchanged; the price in Jilin was 2,550 yuan, unchanged; the price in Heilongjiang was 2,460 yuan, unchanged [3]. - **Base Difference**: The Jinzhou Port main - continuous base difference of corn was 29 yuan, down 18 yuan; the Shandong main - continuous base difference of corn starch was 339 yuan, down 16 yuan [3]. - **US Corn Market**: The CBOT corn main - continuous contract was at 417.25 cents, up 4 cents, with a 0.97% increase. The COBT soybean main - continuous contract was at 1,007 cents, up 0.75 cents, with a 0.07% increase. The CBOT wheat main - continuous contract was at 498.75 cents, down 1.5 cents, with a - 0.3% decrease. The duty - paid price at the US Gulf was 2,090.31 yuan, up 8.74 yuan, with a 0.42% increase, and the import profit was 219.69 yuan. The duty - paid price at the US West Coast was 1,941.98 yuan, up 8.6 yuan, with a 0.44% increase, and the import profit was 368.02 yuan [29]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: The types of spot buyers have increased, which eases market pressure; the pressure of domestic corn production increase is limited, imports remain at a low level, and the market is expected to show resilience after the seasonal pressure [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect the feed demand for corn in the medium term; the release of the new - season supply pressure still takes time, and the price is in the process of bottom - seeking or at the bottom; the number of trucks arriving in Shandong remains high, and the purchase price mostly falls; North China will experience another rainfall process, putting continued pressure on the spot market [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economy is in the process of recovery, with the narrowing of the decline in CPI and PPI, and the improvement of export growth. However, the effective demand is still the core problem, and there may be incremental policies in the future to promote the stable recovery of prices [1]. - The impact of the current Sino - US trade friction on the foreign exchange market is expected to be weaker than that in April. The short - term outlook for Sino - US trade talks is not optimistic, and the uncertainty of future tariff progress is relatively high [1]. - The stock index is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, with limited rebound space due to factors such as weak trading volume and the differentiation of leading industries [4]. - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The impact of recent data on the bond market is neutral to positive, and short - term trading should be based on a volatile mindset [5]. - The shipping index (European line) futures may continue to fluctuate or slightly rise in the short term, but there is a risk of a decline from the high point [7]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium and long term, but with increased short - term volatility. Copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals have different trends. For example, copper has a spot premium, and aluminum is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [8][10][12]. - In the black market, steel products may need to cut production to relieve pressure, and iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure. Coal and coke prices are affected by downstream steel demand, and ferroalloys face challenges to cost support due to weak downstream demand [21][22][26]. - Crude oil is expected to remain weak, and LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly. PX - TA and MEG - bottle chips are mainly affected by macro events, and methanol is also affected by macro trading and supply - demand factors [27][28][32]. - In the agricultural product market, for pigs, it is recommended to sell short at high prices, and for oilseeds, they are expected to fluctuate weakly. Oils may stop falling and stabilize [52][53][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - **Market Information**: In September, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. The decline in CPI and PPI narrowed, and the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months. Overseas, the US government shutdown and trade policies also had an impact on the market [1]. - **Core Logic**: Although the National Day holiday had a good performance in personnel flow, there were contradictions in the consumption end. The subsequent economic recovery needs to focus on the residents' demand side. Policies are being promoted in an orderly manner, and there may be incremental policies. The export growth in September was supported by low - base effects and demand from emerging economies, and the anti - involution policy promoted the recovery of the price index [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1239 at 16:30 on the previous trading day, up 172 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - **Core Logic**: The current Sino - US trade friction is expected to have a weaker impact on the foreign exchange market than in April. The short - term upward space of the US dollar index is limited, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable [2]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index rebounded on the previous trading day, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rising 1.48%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased to 5033.75 billion yuan, and the futures contracts all rose with reduced volume [3]. - **Core Logic**: The rebound of the stock index was in line with the wide - range fluctuation expectation. Although the risk - aversion sentiment eased, the trading volume decreased significantly, and the rebound space was limited. The stock market was less sensitive to economic data and more focused on Sino - US trade relations and policy expectations [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: Treasury bond futures opened lower and closed down on Wednesday. The yield of spot bonds fluctuated during the day and slightly increased at the end of the day [4]. - **Core Logic**: The stock - bond relationship showed a seesaw effect. The recent data had a neutral to positive impact on the bond market, and the short - term trading of treasury bond futures should be based on a volatile mindset [5]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: The container shipping index (European line) futures prices were generally volatile. Except for EC2510, the prices of other monthly contracts increased [5]. - **Core Logic**: The rise in futures prices was mainly due to the stable quotes of Maersk at the end of October and the price increase notice of Hapag - Lloyd. However, due to the unstable geopolitical and tariff issues, there was a risk of a decline from the high point [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: On Wednesday, precious metal prices continued to be strong. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4224.9 per ounce, up 1.48%, and silver 2512 contract closed at $52.525 per ounce, up 3.76% [8]. - **Core Logic**: The medium - and long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but short - term fluctuations are large. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [10]. Copper - **Market Review**: The overseas copper market fell in the second half of the night. Comex copper closed at $4.966 per pound, down 0.97%, and LME copper closed at $10576 per ton, down 0.02% [10]. - **Core Logic**: The spot market had a premium, and the futures price showed a Back structure. The 84000 level support was effectively broken, and the upper pressure level was at 86000 [11]. Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20910 yuan per ton, down 0.10%, and LME aluminum closed at $2744.5 per ton, up 0.18% [11]. - **Core Logic**: The release of the Fed's Beige Book increased the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate slightly upward. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of aluminum with certain support [12]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22015 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [13]. - **Core Logic**: The overnight opening of zinc prices was lower, possibly due to the stop of inventory reduction in LME. The domestic zinc market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the short - term price may face downward pressure [13]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 121180 yuan per ton, up 0.08%, and the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12560 yuan per ton, down 0.24% [13]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term downward driving force has weakened. The new energy sector is in the peak season, and the demand for downstream procurement is high. However, the price of nickel iron is weak, and the stainless steel market is also affected by factors such as profit pressure and demand [14]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin closed at 281,700 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [14]. - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals of tin remain unchanged, and it is still regarded as a long - term bullish product. The support level at 278,000 yuan is stable [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 72,720 yuan per ton on Tuesday, up 0.06% [16]. - **Core Logic**: The market demand is good, and the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts may support the futures price. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 70,000 - 78,000 yuan per ton [17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8570 yuan per ton on Wednesday, up 0.59%, and the main contract of polysilicon futures closed at 50,865 yuan per ton, up 1.75% [17]. - **Core Logic**: With the arrival of the dry season, the production reduction of industrial silicon enterprises may increase, and the price may rise slightly. The polysilicon market is in a game between news and fundamentals, and the market is expected to focus on relevant events such as the "October platform establishment" and "November warehouse receipt cancellation" [18][19]. Lead - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 17,110 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [19]. - **Core Logic**: The lead price fluctuated narrowly. The supply is affected by the high silver price, and the demand is expected to have potential in the Southeast Asian market. The inventory may accumulate in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate with a certain downward possibility [19][20]. Black Market - **Steel Products**: The steel market continued to accumulate inventory, and the profit of steel mills continued to shrink. It may be necessary to cut production to relieve pressure, and the overall market is expected to be under pressure [21]. - **Iron Ore**: Under the premise of weak steel demand and high inventory, the iron ore price has no basis for a trend - upward. The price is expected to rise first and then fall, and remain in a range - bound oscillation [22][24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The downstream steel product supply - demand contradiction has deteriorated, and the coal - coke inventory structure is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection" policies limit the supply elasticity of coking coal in the fourth quarter, and the winter storage this year is expected to support the price [25]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The contradiction between high supply and weak demand persists. The cost support is facing challenges, and there is no obvious upward driving force in the short term [26]. Crude Oil - **Market Review**: The price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 43 cents to $58.27 per barrel, and the price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery fell 48 cents to $61.91 per barrel [27]. - **Core Logic**: The crude oil market is affected by macro - sentiment and supply - demand factors. The current supply - demand fundamentals are unfavorable, and the price is expected to remain weak [28]. LPG - **Market Review**: The LPG2511 contract closed at 4138 (+11), and the LPG2512 contract closed at 4019 (+39) [28]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic LPG fundamentals have little change. The profit - shrinking drive still exists, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [29]. PTA - PX - **Market Review**: The PX supply is expected to increase in October, and the PTA load has decreased. The polyester demand has a seasonal improvement, but the overall impact on the price is limited [30][31]. - **Core Logic**: The PX - TA trend is mainly driven by macro - factors and oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side operation, and consider expanding the processing fee of TA01 below 280 [32]. MEG - Bottle Chips - **Market Review**: The inventory of East China ports has increased, and the supply of some devices has changed [32]. - **Core Logic**: The MEG fundamentals have a marginal improvement, but the valuation is under pressure. The price is expected to move in the range of 3850 - 4250, and it can consider selling put options on eg2601 - P - 3850 when there is an over - decline [35]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol 01 contract closed at 2298 on Wednesday [35]. - **Core Logic**: The methanol market is affected by macro - trading and supply - demand factors. The 01 contract has high supply and high demand, but the inventory pressure has not been resolved. It is recommended to buy a small amount of bottom positions at low prices [36]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6595 (-7) [36]. - **Core Logic**: The PP supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price is following the cost - end decline, and it is recommended to wait and see on the single - side operation [38]. PE - **Market Review**: The plastic 2601 contract closed at 6910 (-8) [39]. - **Core Logic**: The PE supply is increasing, and the demand recovery is slow. The inventory is high, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side operation [41]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: The BZ2603 contract closed at 5579 (-18), and the EB2511 contract closed at 6540 (-4) [42]. - **Core Logic**: The pure benzene supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the demand is weak, with a difficult - to - change inventory - accumulation pattern. The styrene supply is tightening in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see on the single - side operation [42][43]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: The FU01 contract closed at 2683 yuan per ton [43]. - **Core Logic**: The fuel oil supply is tightening, and the demand is stable. The crack spread has limited upward momentum, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling the crack spread [43][44]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: The BU11 contract closed at 3250 yuan per ton [44]. - **Core Logic**: The asphalt supply is relatively stable, and the demand is affected by the holiday and weather. The cost is expected to decline, and the price may have a short - term upward opportunity during the demand peak season [45]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - **Soda Ash**: The supply pressure in the long - term is high, and the inventory is increasing. The demand is stable, and the price is limited by high inventory but has cost support [46]. - **Glass**: The inventory is high, the production and sales are average, and the price is restricted by weak demand. It is waiting for industrial policy guidance [47]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot market is oscillating weakly, and there is an expectation of non - aluminum replenishment in the future, but it needs to be observed [48]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The sp2601 contract closed at 5164 (-6) [48]. - **Core Logic**: The pulp market sentiment is weak, affected by factors such as the decline in the price of foreign - sourced softwood pulp, high port inventory, and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50]. Logs - **Market Review**: The lg2511 contract closed at 793 (5.5) [50]. - **Core Logic**: As the delivery approaches, the long - position receiving willingness is insufficient, and the price is expected to decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the 11 - 01 reverse spread position [50]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The supply is still abundant, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices. Pay attention to the farmers' replenishment behavior and the implementation of capacity - reduction policies [52]. - **Oilseeds**: The internal market is expected to fluctuate weakly, affected by Sino - US trade relations and the supply and demand of soybeans [53]. - **Oils**: The export of Malaysian palm oil has improved, and the internal market may stop falling and stabilize [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Today's stock index rebounded, in line with the expected wide - range oscillation. Information such as the article in "Qiushi" and signals from Premier Li Qiang, along with "easing" remarks from US officials, have eased risk - aversion sentiment. However, the trading volume in the two markets shrank significantly, and the positions of index futures declined, indicating strong market wait - and - see sentiment. The short - term structural pull at the industry level is not as strong as before, and the leading industries are showing differentiation. With the shrinking volume, the rebound space is expected to be limited. The current stock market is less sensitive to economic fundamental data announcements and more driven by expected market trends. The wide - range oscillation view is maintained, and attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US trade relations and policy expectations [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index rebounded today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 1.48%. The trading volume in the two markets decreased by 50.3375 billion yuan. In the index futures market, all varieties rose with shrinking volume [2] Important Information - "Qiushi" magazine published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping. China's September CPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and the PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.3%. "Qiushi" magazine stated to further stabilize market expectations and introduce more policies conducive to stable growth and expectations. After the US threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods on November 1, US Treasury Secretary Besent claimed that the situation had "significantly eased" and the tariff imposition might not happen [3] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see. The table shows the intraday percentage changes, trading volumes, volume changes compared to the previous period, positions, and position changes compared to the previous period of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM [5] Spot Market Observation - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 4.62. The trading volume in the two markets was 207.2859 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.3375 billion yuan compared to the previous period [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Cotton Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 15, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Jianing (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0020097) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of October 14, 2025, a total of 488,900 tons of cotton have been notarized and inspected in the 24/25 season. The cotton picking progress in Xinjiang has passed the halfway point, with northern Xinjiang in the later stage and the machine - picking progress in Kashgar and Kizilsu in southern Xinjiang slightly slower. The current purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang is mostly between 6.05 - 6.3 yuan/kg, with southern Xinjiang slightly higher. The production increase expectation has been slightly revised, but the downstream peak season is gradually weakening, market confidence is insufficient, and the supply pressure of new cotton will gradually emerge. Under the high - yield pattern, cotton prices face significant hedging pressure. Also, Sino - US tariff policy disturbances have resurfaced. The strategy is still to sell on rebounds [4]. Summary by Directory Cotton Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for cotton is 13,000 - 13,600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0703 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.1146 [3] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a selling ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 13,500 - 13,600. They can also sell call options (CF601C13600) to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a selling ratio of 75% and a recommended entry range of 200 - 250 [3] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low procurement inventory hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a buying ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 13,000 - 13,100. They can also sell put options (CF601P13000) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a selling ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 200 - 250 [3] Market Factors Bullish Factors - Some producing areas in southern Xinjiang reported lower - than - expected yields per unit, and the lint percentage of new cotton is low, so the high - yield level may be revised compared to the previous expectation. Also, yarn mills have low raw material inventories and have a rigid demand for replenishing cotton stocks [6] Bearish Factors - The US announced that it will impose an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese goods exported to the US starting from November 1. The new - season cotton output has increased year - on - year, and there is significant hedging pressure above the cotton price. In September 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 24.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.42% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. Among them, textile exports were 11.967 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.43% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.44%; clothing exports were 12.453 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.97% [5][6] Futures and Price Index Data Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,270, up 5 with a 0.04% increase; Cotton 05 closed at 13,330, up 10 with a 0.08% increase; Cotton 09 closed at 13,505, up 5 with a 0.04% increase; Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,325, up 35 with a 0.18% increase; Cotton yarn 05 and 09 had a closing price of 0, down 100% [7] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - Cotton basis was 1,404, down 86; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was - 60, down 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was - 175, up 5; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was 235, unchanged; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,040, down 15; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,939, down 17; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 670, unchanged [8] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was 14,674, down 81 with a - 0.55% decrease; CCI 2227B was 12,844, down 66 with a - 0.51% decrease; CCI 2129B was 14,960, down 67 with a - 0.45% decrease; FCI Index S was 13,044, down 8 with a - 0.06% decrease; FCI Index M was 12,808, down 8 with a - 0.06% decrease; FCI Index L was 12,487, down 7 with a - 0.06% decrease [9]

Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report - Report Date: October 15, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Pay attention to changes in capital market sentiment. In the short term, treasury bond futures may not break upward, but the downward decline space is also limited. Traders should adopt a volatile trading strategy [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures opened lower and closed down after volatile trading. Spot bond yields fluctuated during the day and ended slightly higher overall. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 at around 1.31%. The open - market conducted 4.35 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 60 billion yuan of repurchase, resulting in a net injection of 49.35 billion yuan [1] Market News - Li Qiang chaired a symposium of economic experts and entrepreneurs, emphasizing the need to intensify and improve counter - cyclical adjustment and make full use of policy resources. An article in Qiushi magazine stated that to consolidate and expand the positive economic recovery momentum, attention should be paid to both supply - demand balance regulation and expectation management [1] Market Analysis - Stocks and bonds showed a seesaw relationship again during the day. The weakening of the stock market in the morning briefly lifted TL, while the strengthening of the stock market in the afternoon led to a decline in the bond market. The stock market index stood above 3900 points again today, but trading volume shrank. In the short term, it is difficult to have a smooth upward trend and may maintain range - bound fluctuations, exerting limited pressure on the bond market. In September, the year - on - year decline in CPI and PPI both narrowed, but not driven by domestic demand, so the data had limited impact on the bond market [2] Data Statistics | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 15 | 2025 - 10 - 14 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.372 | 102.386 | - 0.014 | | TF2512 | 105.715 | 105.765 | - 0.05 | | T2512 | 108.1 | 108.19 | - 0.09 | | TL2512 | 114.48 | 114.74 | - 0.26 | | TS Contract Position (Lots) | 74012 | 74633 | - 621 | | TF Contract Position (Lots) | 157295 | 155962 | 1333 | | T Contract Position (Lots) | 256645 | 263295 | - 6650 | | TL Contract Position (Lots) | 178318 | 180122 | - 1804 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0312 | - 0.0117 | - 0.0195 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0497 | 0.003 | - 0.0527 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.1258 | 0.0631 | 0.0627 | | TL Basis (CTD) | - 0.0129 | 0.2925 | - 0.3054 | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 24518 | 32167 | - 7649 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 47109 | 73462 | - 26353 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 89364 | 125811 | - 36447 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 122948 | 155935 | - 32987 | [3][4]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: October 15, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Price Forecast Nickel - Price Range Forecast: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 15.17% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 3.2% [2] Stainless Steel - Price Range Forecast: 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 8.94% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 6.5% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short sell Shanghai Nickel futures based on inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, using NI main contract, sell direction, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [2] - Strategy 2: Sell call options, using over-the-counter/on-exchange options, sell direction, 50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [2] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy Shanghai Nickel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production cost, using far-month NI contract, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [2] - Strategy 2: Sell put options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, sell direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan [2] - Strategy 3: Buy out-of-the-money call options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [2] Stainless Steel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short sell stainless steel futures based on inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, using SS main contract, sell direction, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [3] - Strategy 2: Sell call options, using over-the-counter/on-exchange options, sell direction, 50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [3] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy stainless steel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production cost, using far-month SS contract, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [3] - Strategy 2: Sell put options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, sell direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan [3] - Strategy 3: Buy out-of-the-money call options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel prices fluctuated during the day, with no significant changes in fundamentals recently. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts this year at the macro level, and there is a certain easing sentiment in Sino-US tariffs [3] - In the nickel ore market, Indonesia announced regulations for quota application in 2026. Enterprises need to resubmit new annual RKAB applications for 2026. The overall quota in 2025 is somewhat excessive, and the quota in 2026 is expected to decline under regulatory restrictions such as environmental reviews [3] - In the new energy sector, it will enter the peak season, and the downstream procurement demand remains high. The current quotation has been rising for several consecutive weeks. The market circulation is tight, the inventory is low, and there are still inquiries. It may continue to be strong in the future [3] - The price of nickel iron lacks upward momentum recently, and the overall center of gravity has declined significantly. Tsingshan's latest order was concluded at 945, about 10 yuan/nickel point lower than the previous level. Under the pressure of stainless steel profits and weak demand, it may run weakly. The downward space of the downstream has expanded to some extent after the loss of support from nickel iron [3] - After the holiday, the spot trading of stainless steel remains calm, and the pessimistic sentiment of "peak season without peak" is strong. In terms of exports, the WTO ruled that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal, and the exemption of India's BIS certification until the end of the year has promoted positive sentiment in stainless steel exports [3][5] Group 5: Bullish and Bearish Interpretations Bullish Factors - Indonesia shortened the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [6] - The Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [6] - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of a nickel integrated smelter [6] - The WTO ruled that the EU's additional tax rate on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal [6] - The exemption of India's BIS certification was extended to the end of the year [6] Bearish Factors - The inventory of pure nickel is high [6] - The Sino-US tariff issue has resurfaced [6] - The center of gravity of nickel iron has moved down, and the bottom support has weakened [6] - Stainless steel shows "peak season without peak", and the demand recovery is less than expected [6] Group 6: Market Data Nickel - Shanghai Nickel Main Contract: Latest value 121,180 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan, 0% change [6] - Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 1: Latest value 120,830 yuan/ton, down 580 yuan, -0.48% change [6] - Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 2: Latest value 120,990 yuan/ton, down 590 yuan, -0.49% change [6] - Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 3: Latest value 121,210 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan, -0.49% change [6] - LME Nickel 3M: Latest value 15,104 US dollars/ton, down 76 US dollars, -0.53% change [6] - Trading Volume: 83,761 lots, down 26,323 lots, -23.91% change [6] - Open Interest: 68,681 lots, down 4,426 lots, -6.05% change [6] - Warehouse Receipts: 26,558 tons, up 1,531 tons, 6.12% change [6] - Basis of Main Contract: -460 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan, -38.7% change [6] Stainless Steel - Stainless Steel Main Contract: Latest value 12,560 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan, 0% change [7] - Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 1: Latest value 12,540 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan, -0.75% change [7] - Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 2: Latest value 12,565 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, -0.71% change [7] - Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 3: Latest value 12,660 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan, 0.04% change [7] - Trading Volume: 113,216 lots, down 37,540 lots, -24.90% change [7] - Open Interest: 193,490 lots, up 3,239 lots, 1.70% change [7] - Warehouse Receipts: 84,007 tons, down 490 tons, -0.58% change [7] - Basis of Main Contract: 805 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan, 12.59% change [7] Group 7: Inventory Data - Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel: 43,694 tons, up 2,866 tons [8] - LME Nickel Inventory: 246,756 tons, up 3,498 tons [8] - Social Inventory of Stainless Steel: 905.6 tons, down 3.4 tons [8] - Nickel Pig Iron Inventory: 29,236 tons, up 584 tons [9]