Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Near the holiday, there are signs of capital withdrawal, with a significant contraction in the trading volume of the two markets today. Technology concepts led the decline, while the dividend index rose. To cope with holiday uncertainties in the short term, risk aversion has increased. Although the stock market fluctuated frequently this week, as previously mentioned, the central point did not change much, showing a pre - holiday stable transition and wide - range shock market. There are only two trading days next week. If there are no unexpected factors, the stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate. Domestic PMI data will be released, and attention should be paid to its changes. If capital flow intensifies before the holiday, it may increase the stock market's amplitude. It is recommended to gradually lighten the position and buy the straddle option strategy next week [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - The stock index declined overall today. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed down 0.95%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 224.05 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties declined with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will launch a RMB business capital arrangement from October 9 this year, replacing the existing RMB trade financing liquidity arrangement, and implementing multiple optimization measures and expanding eligible capital uses. - Seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)". - Trump announced that starting from October 1, a 50% import tariff will be imposed on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, a 30% tariff on imported furniture, and a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs [3]. Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.04 | -0.47 | -1.47 | -1.39 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 12.1085 | 4.8226 | 13.6035 | 24.299 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | -1.2397 | -0.3587 | 0.637 | 3.0154 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.9924 | 9.5988 | 25.2224 | 36.4864 | | Open interest change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | -0.6449 | 0.1041 | 0.3365 | 1.1537 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.65 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.76 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.53 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 21468.85 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (100 million yuan) | -2242.05 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current core focus of the market is on whether the supply of lithium carbonate can match the downstream demand increase from October to November. Near the "National Day" holiday, downstream enterprises still have restocking sentiment, and policies on new - energy vehicles and energy storage may support lithium carbonate futures prices. [3] - The report suggests focusing on two aspects: whether the downstream restocking sentiment can continue after the National Day and the implementation rhythm of the resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine. If downstream restocking weakens and there is no strong demand support, the price may turn down. [3] - From a multi - dimensional analysis of supply and demand, it is expected that before mid - October, the lithium carbonate futures price will fluctuate in the range of 68,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range and Volatility**: The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 78,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 26.2% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 35.9%. [2] - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 74,040 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0, a daily ratio of 0.00%, a weekly change of 80, and a weekly ratio of 0.11%. Other contract data such as volume, open interest, and spreads are also provided. [9] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 40,329 lots, with a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 845. [9] 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of various types of lithium ores are given, including lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - alumina stone. For example, the latest average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,875 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 5 and a weekly ratio of - 0.27%. [19] - **Carbonate and Hydroxide Prices**: The average daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are provided. For instance, the latest average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,350 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 150 and a daily ratio of - 0.21%. [22] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different types of lithium products are presented, such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate. [25] - **Downstream Product Prices**: The average daily prices of downstream products like lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes are given. For example, the latest average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 33,650 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 40 and a daily ratio of - 0.12%. [27] 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main contract and brand - based basis quotes are provided. For example, the basis quote of Tianqi Lithium Industry (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2507) is 300 yuan/ton. [28] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The daily changes in lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are presented, with a total of 40,329 lots today, an increase of 20 from yesterday. [30] 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profits of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ores (lithium spodumene and lithium mica) are shown in the form of a graph. [32] - **Import and Delivery Profits**: The import profit and theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate are presented in graphical form. [32][33] 3.5 Risk Management Strategies - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with plans to produce battery materials, different hedging strategies are recommended based on the correlation between product prices and lithium carbonate prices. For example, when product prices are not correlated, 60% of the corresponding futures contracts can be bought at 67,000 - 71,000 yuan/ton, and 40% of put options can be sold. [2] - **Sales Management**: For enterprises with plans to produce lithium carbonate, to prevent price drops, 60% of the corresponding futures contracts can be sold according to the production plan, and 40% of put - call option combinations can be used. [2] - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory, 40% of the main futures contracts can be sold at 76,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and 60% of call options can be sold. [2] 3.6 Market Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Jiangxi lithium ore enterprises face time - node pressure to submit reports, which may cause temporary production suspension and affect supply. Policy support for new - energy vehicles and energy storage may extend the peak season and boost demand. [5] - **Negative Factors**: There is a risk that downstream restocking during the peak season may fall short of expectations, and the expected resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine may increase supply. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - There is a contradiction between macro - expectations and industrial logic. There are policy and cost - increase expectations for the far - month contracts, which cannot be falsified yet. The near - term reality is average, and the mid - stream's inventory - reduction ability during the peak season needs to be observed [2]. - For glass, supply disruptions are emerging again, and expectations are leading. Glass prices are prone to rise and hard to fall, but the high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit price increases. The near - term pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. From a valuation perspective, there are still profits in coal - gas and petroleum - coke production lines. The cumulative apparent demand from January to September is estimated to decline by 6% - 6.5%, and the spot market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus [4]. - For纯碱, market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, increasing price volatility. The second - phase ignition of Yuangxing has entered the test - run stage, and the long - term supply pressure continues. The rigid demand for replenishment in the middle and lower reaches is the main factor, and the pressure on alkali factories has been somewhat relieved. The long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved, and the inventory of finished products has been reduced. The rigid demand for soda ash is stable, and the heavy - soda balance remains in surplus. In August, soda ash exports exceeded 200,000 tons, which alleviated domestic pressure to some extent [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - Glass price monthly forecast is in the range of 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.42% and a historical percentile of 83.6% over three years. Soda ash price monthly forecast is in the range of 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.39% and a historical percentile of 25.7% over three years [1]. 3.2 Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Glass Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, short - sell FG2601 glass futures at 50% ratio with an entry point of 1400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell FG601C1400 call options at 50% ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce costs [1]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low, buy FG2601 glass futures at 50% ratio with an entry range of 1100 - 1150 to lock in procurement costs. Sell FG601P1100 put options at 50% ratio with an entry range of 50 - 60 to collect premiums and reduce costs [1]. 3.2.2 Soda Ash Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, short - sell SA2601 soda ash futures at 50% ratio with an entry range of 1550 - 1600 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell SA601C1500 call options at 50% ratio with an entry range of 50 - 60 to collect premiums and reduce costs [1]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low, buy SA2601 soda ash futures at 50% ratio with an entry range of 1200 - 1250 to lock in procurement costs. Sell SA601P1200 put options at 50% ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce costs [1]. 3.3 Glass and Soda Ash Price and Market Data 3.3.1 Glass - **Futures Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1372, down 11 (- 0.8%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1436, down 10 (- 0.69%); the 01 contract was 1252, down 18 (- 1.42%) [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the average price of glass in Shahe was 1225, up 20.4 from the previous day. Different regions had different price changes, with some remaining stable and some rising slightly [6]. 3.3.2 Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was 1384, down 20 (- 1.42%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1439, down 20 (- 1.37%); the 01 contract was 1293, down 22 (- 1.67%) [7][8]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the heavy - soda and light - soda prices in different regions remained mostly stable, with some regions having a price difference between heavy and light soda [9].

南华原油风险管理日报 2025年9月26日 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心观点】 隔夜原油延续反弹态势，不仅突破前期高点，还打破了此前的震荡收敛格局，但整体仍处于横盘震荡大框 架内。此次反弹主要受俄乌地缘风险推动，乌克兰频繁袭击俄罗斯石油设施，包括新罗西斯克港这一俄最 大原油出口港，引发市场对俄石油供应下滑的担忧，叠加多头情绪偏强且小幅增仓，共同支撑油价走高。 值得注意的是，按此前地缘驱动节奏，当前原油反弹的时间与空间已基本到位，需警惕油价重复"反弹后 回落"走势、重回震荡区间。若无重大地缘事件，原油上方空间有限，大趋势仍为弱势，中长期或维持弱 势横盘或呈向下趋势，短期多空天平变化还需盘面及供应数据进一步验证。 美国原油周度出口量季节性 source： 同花顺,南华研究 万桶/天 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 01/01 05/01 09/01 200 400 美国馏分燃料油当周库存环比/MA4季节性 source： 同花顺,南华研究 千桶 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 01/01 05/01 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The economic data in July - August reveals a complex macro - economic situation. There is pressure of marginal slowdown in economic growth, but counter - cyclical policies are in place. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in September, but the path of future rate cuts is uncertain [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week. The strong US economic data supports the US dollar index and increases the uncertainty of the Fed's future rate - cut path [4][5]. - The stock index is under pressure due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's rate cut. However, there is support from positive policies, so the downside space is limited [6]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile. Policy support exists, and operations should focus on oversold rebounds [7]. - The shipping index (European line) futures price is generally rising, driven by the increase in quotes by MSC and the closing of short positions by some investors [8][9]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Gold is likely to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and silver may rise further if it breaks through key levels. It is recommended to hold light positions during the National Day holiday [10][12]. - The supply - side shortage has significantly pushed up the copper price. The long - term shutdown of Freeport's Grasberg mine will impact the global copper supply chain [13]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, alumina is likely to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [15][16][17]. - Zinc is expected to have its center of gravity move down slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [18]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong in the short - term, affected by supply concerns in the nickel ore market and the rise in cobalt prices [18][19]. - Tin is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for opportunities for long positions [20]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton before the National Day holiday [21][22]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of "strong expectation, weak reality". It is recommended to be cautious when participating in polysilicon investment [23][24]. - Lead is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term contradiction lies in raw materials, and it is necessary to observe the demand's acceptance of prices [26]. - Steel products face problems of high supply and insufficient demand, with pressure on de - stocking. However, there is support from raw material replenishment before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the risk of negative - feedback production cuts after the holiday [27][28]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply is at a medium - to - high level, and the demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills [29][30]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to be affected by the "anti - involution" policy. It is not recommended to short coking coal. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday and relevant policies [31][32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and the downside space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price levels [33][34]. - Crude oil is rebounding driven by geopolitical risks, but the upside space is limited in the absence of major geopolitical events. The long - term trend may be weak [35][36]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic supply is controllable, and the chemical demand is temporarily strong [37][38]. - PX - PTA is recommended to be cautiously bought. The polyester demand is seasonally strong but lacks sustainability, and the supply - side contradictions may be alleviated [40][41]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate between 4150 - 4300 yuan. It is recommended to wait for market drivers [44]. - Methanol is recommended to hold short - put options. The main contradiction lies in the port, and the 01 contract has limited upside potential [45][46]. - PP's downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long positions at low prices [48][49]. - PE is expected to fluctuate. The supply may increase, and the demand recovery is slow, but the downside space is limited due to macro - expectations and low valuations [51][52]. - Pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is uncertain [53]. - Styrene has more supply disturbances. The supply is expected to increase after September, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to observe and consider widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene [54]. - Fuel oil is recommended to be observed due to concerns about supply reduction from Russia. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable [55]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is sluggish [56][57]. - Asphalt is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the inventory is improving [58][59]. - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the price is restricted by high inventory [60]. - Glass is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The supply - side may have uncertainties, and the demand is weak in the short - term [61]. - Caustic soda's spot price is weakening. The supply is fluctuating due to maintenance, and the demand varies by region [62]. - Pulp is recommended to be bought at low prices in the futures market and to sell out - of - the - money put options in the options market [63][64]. - Logs are recommended to use the interval grid strategy and the covered put strategy [66][67]. - Propylene is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is consolidating, and the cost pressure on the demand side still exists [68][69]. - Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices due to high supply [70][72]. - Oils are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the far - month rising opportunities of palm oil and the widening of the rapeseed oil 15 - spread [73]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.8%, and the weekly initial jobless claims decreased. The Fed's future rate - cut path is uncertain, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. The strong US economic data supported the US dollar index, and the RMB is expected to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week [3][4][5]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index was under pressure due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's rate cut. The CSI 300 index rose, and the trading volume increased [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market was volatile. The 30 - year Treasury bond trading was crowded, and the policy was supportive. It is recommended to buy on dips with proper position control [6][7]. - **Container Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) futures prices rose. MSC raised its quotes, and the market was affected by pre - holiday capital fluctuations [8][9]. Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices showed different trends. Silver, platinum, and palladium rose strongly. It is recommended to hold light positions during the National Day holiday [10]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose significantly due to the supply - side shortage caused by the accident at Freeport's Grasberg mine [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, alumina is likely to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [15][16][17]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to have its center of gravity move down slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the money call options [18]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong in the short - term, affected by supply concerns in the nickel ore market and the rise in cobalt prices [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for opportunities for long positions [20]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton before the National Day holiday [21][22]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of "strong expectation, weak reality". It is recommended to be cautious when participating in polysilicon investment [23][24]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term contradiction lies in raw materials, and it is necessary to observe the demand's acceptance of prices [26]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel products face problems of high supply and insufficient demand, with pressure on de - stocking. However, there is support from raw material replenishment before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the risk of negative - feedback production cuts after the holiday [27][28]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply is at a medium - to - high level, and the demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills [29][30]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke are expected to be affected by the "anti - involution" policy. It is not recommended to short coking coal. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday and relevant policies [31][32]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and the downside space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price levels [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil is rebounding driven by geopolitical risks, but the upside space is limited in the absence of major geopolitical events. The long - term trend may be weak [35][36]. - **LPG**: LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic supply is controllable, and the chemical demand is temporarily strong [37][38]. - **PTA - PX**: PX - PTA is recommended to be cautiously bought. The polyester demand is seasonally strong but lacks sustainability, and the supply - side contradictions may be alleviated [40][41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate between 4150 - 4300 yuan. It is recommended to wait for market drivers [44]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is recommended to hold short - put options. The main contradiction lies in the port, and the 01 contract has limited upside potential [45][46]. - **PP**: PP's downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long positions at low prices [48][49]. - **PE**: PE is expected to fluctuate. The supply may increase, and the demand recovery is slow, but the downside space is limited due to macro - expectations and low valuations [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is uncertain. Styrene has more supply disturbances. The supply is expected to increase after September, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to observe and consider widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene [53][54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is recommended to be observed due to concerns about supply reduction from Russia. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable [55]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is sluggish [56][57]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the inventory is improving [58][59]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the price is restricted by high inventory [60]. - **Glass**: Glass is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The supply - side may have uncertainties, and the demand is weak in the short - term [61]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda's spot price is weakening. The supply is fluctuating due to maintenance, and the demand varies by region [62]. Others - **Pulp**: Pulp is recommended to be bought at low prices in the futures market and to sell out - of - the - money put options in the options market [63][64]. - **Logs**: Logs are recommended to use the interval grid strategy and the covered put strategy [66][67]. - **Propylene**: Propylene is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is consolidating, and the cost pressure on the demand side still exists [68][69]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices due to high supply [70][72]. - **Oils**: Oils are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the far - month rising opportunities of palm oil and the widening of the rapeseed oil 15 - spread [73].

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Zinc Risk Management Report - Date: September 25, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The zinc price rebounded slightly following the broader market in the previous trading session. The supply side remains in a surplus state. On the mine side, due to the internal and external price ratio, domestic mines have a significant price advantage, and the increase in domestic processing fees slowed down in September. Overseas mines have seen a substantial increase this year, showing a loose supply situation. In terms of imports, due to the weak production capacity of overseas smelters, the increase in overseas refined zinc is limited, while zinc ore imports are at a multi-year high. On the demand side, the inventory in seven domestic regions continues to accumulate, and no peak-season phenomenon has been observed. In the short term, affected by typhoons, the downstream operating rate is expected to decline slightly. The LME inventory continues to decrease, and the pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic zinc prices in terms of inventory is becoming more obvious. In terms of trading strategies, the internal and external reverse arbitrage can continue to wait and see as the LME inventory approaches its extreme value. Currently, the internal and external positive arbitrage logic for zinc ingots prevails. In the short term, the price will mainly fluctuate based on macroeconomic factors and consumption [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc Price Volatility and Risk Management Recommendations - **Zinc Price Volatility**: The latest zinc price is 22,045, with a predicted range of 21,000 - 23,500. The current volatility is 7.74%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 3.0% [2]. - **Risk Management Recommendations**: - **Inventory Management**: For those with high finished product inventory worried about price drops, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai zinc futures contract at a hedging ratio of 75% with an entry range of 22,700. There is no current recommendation for Shanghai zinc options [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For those with low raw material inventory worried about price increases, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai zinc futures contract at a hedging ratio of 50% with an entry range of 21,700. There is no current recommendation for Shanghai zinc options [2]. Core Contradictions - The zinc price rebounded slightly following the broader market. The supply side is in surplus, with domestic mines having a price advantage and overseas mines having a large increase. The increase in overseas refined zinc is limited, and zinc ore imports are high. The domestic inventory is accumulating, and the downstream operating rate may decline slightly due to typhoons. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the price pattern is stronger overseas and weaker domestically. The internal and external positive arbitrage logic prevails, and the price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [3]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely Positive Factors**: - Overseas inventory is continuously decreasing (high probability, medium impact) [4]. - The Fed cuts interest rates more than expected (low probability, high impact) [4]. - The mine processing fee decreases (low probability, medium impact) [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: - Demand is weak, and peak-season consumption falls short of expectations (medium probability, medium impact) [6]. - Domestic inventory accumulates (medium probability, medium impact) [6]. - Import volume exceeds expectations year-on-year (low probability, low impact) [6]. Market Data - **Zinc Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM 0 zinc is 21,870 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.23% daily. The average price of SMM 1 zinc is 21,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.23% daily [7]. - **Zinc Futures Prices**: The main Shanghai zinc futures contract closed at 22,045 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan or 0.85% daily. The LME zinc closed at 2,938 US dollars/ton, up 49.5 US dollars or 1.71% daily [7]. - **Zinc Futures Inventory**: The total Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 56,583 tons, down 774 tons or 1.35% daily. The total LME zinc inventory is 44,400 tons, down 1,375 tons or 3% daily [7]. Other Data - **LME Zinc Position and Warehouse Receipt Data**: - **LME Zinc Position**: The distribution of long and short positions in different ranges is provided [19]. - **LME Zinc Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipt holders in different ranges is provided [19]. - **Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees**: A comparison of domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees is presented [21].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - Calculated based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days, today the Nanhua Composite Index rose by 0.96%. Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell by -0.32%, while the rest all rose, with the Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index having the largest increase of 1.67% and the Nanhua Black Index having the smallest increase of 0.5% [1][3]. - All theme indices rose, with the Energy Index having the largest increase of 1.55% and the Coal - to - Chemical Index having the smallest increase of 0.28% [1][3]. - Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the International Copper index had the largest increase of 3.59%, and the Gold index had the largest decrease of - 0.61% [1][3]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Index - The Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 2568.05, up 24.38 points or 0.96% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return of 8.49%, an annualized volatility of 12.74%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.67 [3]. - The Nanhua Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) closed at 1392.69, down 4.40 points or - 0.32% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return of 42.06%, an annualized volatility of 16.15%, and a Sharpe ratio of 2.60 [3]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index (NHII) closed at 3658.15, up 38.84 points or 1.07% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return of 2.27%, an annualized volatility of 15.31%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.15 [3]. - The Nanhua Metal Index (NHMI) closed at 6456.92, up 66.24 points or 1.04% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return of 6.24%, an annualized volatility of 13.95%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.45 [3]. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) closed at 1673.93, up 15.83 points or 0.95% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return of - 2.72%, an annualized volatility of 17.70%, and a Sharpe ratio of - 0.15 [3]. - The Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index (NHNF) closed at 1712.18, up 28.19 points or 1.67% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return of 5.96%, an annualized volatility of 12.66%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.47 [3]. - The Nanhua Black Index (NHFI) closed at 2594.63, up 12.84 points or 0.50% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return of 1.42%, an annualized volatility of 20.67%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.07 [3]. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) closed at 1076.18, up 8.01 points or 0.75% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return of 3.04%, an annualized volatility of 8.97%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.34 [3]. - The Nanhua Mini - Composite Index (NHCIMi) closed at 1203.54, up 8.70 points or 0.73% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return of 2.18%, an annualized volatility of 11.00%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.20 [3]. - The Nanhua Energy Index (NHEI) closed at 1080.42, up 16.52 points or 1.55% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return of - 0.61%, an annualized volatility of 19.53%, and a Sharpe ratio of - 0.03 [3]. - The Nanhua Petrochemical Index (NHPCI) closed at 930.44, up 6.40 points or 0.69% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return of - 1.83%, an annualized volatility of 10.06%, and a Sharpe ratio of - 0.18 [3]. - The Nanhua Coal - to - Chemical Index (NHCCI) closed at 1001.63, up 2.76 points or 0.28% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return of - 3.17%, an annualized volatility of 11.96%, and a Sharpe ratio of - 0.26 [3]. - The Nanhua Black Raw Materials Index (NHFM) closed at 1096.96, up 8.28 points or 0.76% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return of - 0.02%, an annualized volatility of 20.68%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.00 [3]. - The Nanhua Building Materials Index (NHBMI) closed at 749.33, up 4.44 points or 0.60% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return of - 3.36%, an annualized volatility of 19.50%, and a Sharpe ratio of - 0.17 [3]. - The Nanhua Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOI) closed at 1249.41, up 16.76 points or 1.36% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return of 0.21%, an annualized volatility of 12.45%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.02 [3]. - The Nanhua Economic Crops Index (NHAECI) closed at 896.40, up 3.07 points or 0.34% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return of - 0.67%, an annualized volatility of 7.20%, and a Sharpe ratio of - 0.09 [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - Among the single - variety indices in the agricultural products sector, Palm Oil rose by 1.05%, Rapeseed Oil by 2.23%, Rapeseed by 0.13%, Rapeseed Meal by 2.05%, and Starch by 0.11% [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Today, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) opened higher and fluctuated. As of the close, the prices of all EC contracts rebounded to varying degrees. Some investors gradually closed their positions as the National Day holiday approached. The futures price is likely to continue its oscillating trend in the short term. For the 12 - contract, investors can continue to look for low - buying opportunities and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach or intraday short - term operations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with full shipping capacity or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1250 - 1350 to lock in profits [2]. - For those who want to book cabins according to orders and prevent rising freight rates from increasing transportation costs, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1000 - 1100 to determine booking costs in advance [2]. Core Contradiction - As of the close, EC contract prices rebounded. The long positions of the EC2510 contract decreased by 2590 lots to 20182 lots, the short positions decreased by 1924 lots to 21185 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 8470 lots to 44801 lots (bilateral). The rise in the spot cabin quotation and the closing of positions by some short - position investors led to the rebound in the futures price valuation. Attention should be paid to the risk of capital fluctuations before the holiday this week [3]. 利多解读 - Maersk's spot cabin quotation for the European Line in mid - October stopped falling and rebounded significantly, and MSC's quotation for the European Line also rebounded slightly in the following two weeks [4]. 利空解读 - On September 24, local time, the Trump administration of the United States announced the implementation of a trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products starting from August 1. There are also tariff exemptions for certain drug compounds, aircraft parts, and other imported goods. The daily change in the EC basis shows a decline in most contracts [5]. EC Price and Spread - On September 25, 2025, the closing prices of EC contracts showed different degrees of increase, with EC2510 up 5.26% daily and 6.07% weekly, EC2512 up 5.10% daily and 8.38% weekly, etc. The price spreads between different contracts also changed [6]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotation - On October 17, Maersk's 20GP and 40GP opening quotations from Shanghai to Rotterdam rebounded compared with the previous week. In the following two weeks, MSC's 20GP and 40GP total quotations also rebounded slightly. However, CMA CGM's 20GP and 40GP total quotations from Shanghai to Rotterdam decreased compared with the same period [8]. Global Freight Rate Index - Various global freight rate indexes showed a downward trend, such as the SCFIS European Line down 12.87% to 1254.92 points, the SCFIS US West Line down 11.57% to 1193.64 points, etc. [9]. Global Major Port Waiting Time - The waiting times of major ports changed on September 24 compared with September 23. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.706 days to 1.773 days, while the waiting time at Singapore Port increased by 0.633 days to 1.167 days [14]. Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - The speeds of different types of container ships changed on September 24 compared with September 23. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor decreased by 1 to 15 [23].

国债期货日报 2025/09/25 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 号 观点：关注央行态度 盘面点评： 周四期债早盘低开低走，午后大幅反弹，尾盘TL翻红，其余品种微跌。现券收益率日内波动较大，日终与昨 日相差不大。公开市场逆回购4835亿，超额续作MLF 3000亿，净投放2965亿。资金面仍然趋紧，DR001回 升至1.48%。 日内消息： 1. 贝森特：不理解鲍威尔为何"退缩"，敦促年底前降息100-150个基点，正在面试11位美联储主席候选人。 | | 2025-09-25 | 2025-09-24 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-09-25 | 2025-09-24 | 今日变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.3 | 102.324 | -0.024 | TS合约持仓(手） | 76969 | 75884 | 1085 | | TF2512 | 105.475 | 105.54 | -0.065 | TF合约持仓(手） | 151433 | ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View Today's stock market showed a volatile trend, with the broader market index demonstrating strength as the CSI 300 index reached a new high, reflecting continued market optimism. The rising stocks were concentrated, with the ratio of rising to falling stocks at only 0.39. Similar to yesterday, the leading sectors were still focused on TMT, but mainly weighted stocks were rising. In the short term, a structural rally is maintained, and there are no incremental systematic positives or negatives. Therefore, the expectation of a stable transition in the pre - holiday market is maintained, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. [4] Market Review - Today's stock index trends varied. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 0.60%. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 44.306 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF rose with increasing volume, IC and IH rose with decreasing volume, and IM fell with decreasing volume. [2] Important Information - Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Eddie Yue announced that a fixed - income and currency roadmap would be released today during his welcome speech at the Hong Kong Fixed Income and Currency Forum. - On September 25, the National Healthcare Security Administration officially issued a notice on a 100 - day special rectification campaign for prominent problems in healthcare fund management, to be carried out nationwide from now until December 31, 2025, targeting illegal and irregular use of healthcare funds such as reselling returned healthcare drugs, over - prescribing, and fraudulently obtaining maternity allowances. [3] Strategy Recommendation Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.88 | 0.52 | 0.43 | - 0.09 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 13.3482 | 5.1813 | 12.9665 | 21.2836 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | - 1.3263 | - 1.0311 | - 4.7515 | - 8.0784 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.6373 | 9.4947 | 24.8859 | 35.3327 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.2673 | - 0.3358 | - 0.7113 | - 1.2164 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | - 0.01 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.67 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.39 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 237.109 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | 4.4306 | [6]