Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental drivers for ethylene glycol (EG) in the near - term are insufficient. Under the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation after October, it has become a concentrated short - allocation for funds. With new production capacity coming online, the inventory accumulation expectation for the fourth quarter has advanced and expanded, and the valuation has been further pressured under front - running trades. Since the inventory accumulation expectation has been mostly priced in, it is not recommended to continue shorting before the expectation is realized. - The supply side of EG is operating at full capacity, with little chance of unexpected incremental supply and overall lacking supply elasticity. Considering the low inventory, relatively low valuation, and lack of supply elasticity of EG, the short - term downward price space is limited. However, if there are unexpected drivers from the supply side or the macro - environment, the upward price movement will be more elastic. - Currently, the supply - demand drivers for EG are limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 4150 - 4350. A breakout requires cost - side and macro - level drivers. In terms of operations, due to short - term emotional suppression leading to an oversold situation, there is price support, and one can moderately sell out - of - the - money put options [3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecasts are as follows: EG is 4150 - 4450, PX is 6400 - 7100, PTA is 4400 - 5000, and bottle chips are 5600 - 6200. The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 9.75% for EG, 12.56% for PX, 12.61% for PTA, and 9.81% for bottle chips. Their 3 - year historical percentile volatilities are 3.2%, 27.4%, 19.0%, and 13.4% respectively [2]. 3.2 Polyester Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about EG price drops, they can short EG2601 futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 4320 - 4420. They can also buy EG2601P4100 put options to prevent large price drops and sell EG2601C4500 call options to reduce capital costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and entry ranges of 20 - 30 and 50 - 80 respectively [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy EG2601 futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 4180 - 4250. They can also sell EG2601P4100 put options to collect premiums and lower procurement costs. If the EG price drops, they can lock in the spot purchase price, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 50 - 80 [2]. 3.3 Market Data - **Price Data**: On September 26, 2025, Brent crude oil was at $68.8 per barrel, up $0.2 from the previous day; Naphtha CFR Japan was at $608.5 per ton, up $2.5. There were various price changes for other products such as PX, PTA, EG, and polyester fibers [6][10]. - **Spread Data**: TA main - contract basis was - 51 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous day; EG main - contract basis was 79 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton. There were also changes in month - to - month spreads for PX, PTA, and EG [10]. - **Processing Fee and Production - Sales Rate**: The gasoline reforming spread was $29 per ton, up $4 from the previous day; POY profit was 121 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton. The production - sales rates of polyester filaments, short - fibers, and slices all showed different degrees of change [10]. 3.4 Market News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", with a limited expected impact on the EG supply side, and further details need to be monitored [4]. - The increase in thermal coal prices has compressed the profit of coal - based marginal plants to below the cost line, strengthening cost support. A 750,000 - ton/year EG plant in Malaysia has shut down due to technical issues, with an undetermined restart time, potentially reducing imports in October. A 400,000 - ton/year EG plant in Fujian plans to shut down for about two weeks in October, and a 200,000 - ton EG plant in Ningxia Kunpeng plans to start trial production at the end of October [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is in a range - bound state. The current price has limited operation value, and a grid trading strategy is recommended. The price of individual specifications of radiata pine in Lanshan has increased, but actual transactions are weak, and downstream production demand is flat. The increase in foreign quotes has limited impact on the market. For the 01 contract, shorting the far - month contract to earn the discount can be tried with a small position, but the certainty is not high [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The prices of 3.9 - meter medium A and 5.9 - meter small A radiata pine in Lanshan increased by 10 yuan this week, with no changes in other aspects. The latest foreign quotes showed increases, but the impact on the market was limited. The national inventory slightly increased to 2.92 million cubic meters as of September 19, maintaining a seasonal de - stocking trend. The daily average outbound volume decreased to 59,800 cubic meters per day. The trading volume on the futures market continued to decline, and the increase in foreign quotes had little impact on the market [3]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - The market is in a range - bound state. A range grid strategy is recommended, with 805 as the price center, a grid spacing of 5 - 10, and a range of 790 - 820, with a balanced long - short configuration. After the National Day, if there are no new variables, switch to a short - selling strategy [3][8]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 Important Information - Bullish factors: Inventory is seasonally declining and at a historical low. Bearish factors: The outbound volume is decreasing, and demand needs to be verified. Spot transaction information shows the prices and basis of different specifications of logs [12][13][14]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Observe the market's response to the price increase of individual specifications in Shandong and the increase in CFR quotes by some foreign suppliers [16]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The market is in a range - bound state, with capital reducing positions. The price fluctuation center is around 805, and the trading volume is low [18]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - The calendar spread structure maintains a C - structure, with a significant decline in the price of the delivery - month contract. Except for the delivery - month contract, there are few structural changes [20]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Valuation - The warehouse receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 822, and in Shandong, it is around 825. The buyer's willingness to accept goods is around 782. The current price is within a reasonable range [28]. 3.4.2 Import Profit - In Shandong, the import of 3.9/5.9 - meter medium A radiata pine continues to incur losses, and the losses have deepened after the spot price adjustment. In the Yangtze River Delta region, the profit of 6 - meter medium A radiata pine is also negative but better than in Shandong [29]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - From September 27 to October 6, 13 ships are expected to arrive, with a total cargo volume of 498,000 cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs shows seasonal fluctuations [35][65]. 3.5.2 Demand - As of September 19, the daily average outbound volume decreased to 59,800 cubic meters. The demand for furniture is supported by the high volume of second - hand housing transactions, but the demand in the real estate sector is weak [37]. 3.5.3 Inventory - The national inventory slightly increased to 2.92 million cubic meters as of September 19, maintaining a seasonal de - stocking trend [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) continued its oscillating trend as expected. By the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed results. From the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional investors on the exchange, the long positions of the EC2510 contract decreased by 1,523 lots to 18,659 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,060 lots to 19,737 lots. The trading volume decreased by 16,778 lots to 26,471 lots (bilateral). As previously expected, some investors gradually closed their positions approaching the National Day holiday [3]. - The positive impact from the rebound in spot cabin quotes has weakened, with no significant change in European Line spot cabin quotes today, making the impact neutral. Trump's additional tariffs on certain specific commodities brought a slight negative impact from a macro - sentiment perspective. In the remaining two trading days next week, attention should still be paid to the risks brought by pre - holiday capital fluctuations. The latest SCFI European Line dropped below $1,000/TEU, which may bring certain negative factors to the market. In the short term, the futures price is more likely to continue to oscillate or oscillate downward; the 12 - contract can continue to focus on low - buying opportunities, and overall, it is mainly advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday short - selling [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Advice - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and is worried about the decline in freight rates (long spot exposure), to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling direction and a recommended entry range of 1,250 - 1,350 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and they hope to book cabins according to order situations (short spot exposure), to prevent the increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying direction and a recommended entry range of 1,000 - 1,100 [2]. 利多解读 - Maersk's European Line spot cabin quotes for mid - October stopped falling and rebounded significantly, and in the following two weeks, MSC's European Line spot cabin quotes also followed with a slight rebound [4]. 利空解读 - On September 25, Eastern Time, US President Trump announced on social media that starting from October 1, a batch of imported goods would be subject to additional tariffs, including brand drugs, heavy trucks, kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, and upholstered furniture. Specifically, "any brand or patented drugs" entering the country will be subject to a 100% tariff, but companies building pharmaceutical factories in the US will be exempted. The US will also impose a 25% tariff on all imported heavy trucks, a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, and a 30% tariff on imported upholstered furniture [5]. EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 26, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 115.92 points, with a daily increase of 34.00 points and a weekly decrease of 88.50 points; the basis of EC2512 was - 522.08 points, with a daily increase of 6.10 points and a weekly decrease of 147.00 points; the basis of EC2602 was - 430.08 points, with a daily increase of 11.20 points and a weekly decrease of 122.50 points; the basis of EC2604 was - 13.68 points, with a daily increase of 16.50 points and a weekly decrease of 18.60 points; the basis of EC2606 was - 228.58 points, with a daily decrease of 1.20 points and a weekly decrease of 229.72 points; the basis of EC2608 was - 362.28 points, with a daily increase of 10.80 points and a weekly decrease of 207.62 points [6][7]. EC Price and Spread - On September 26, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1,139.0 points, with a daily increase of 5.26% and a weekly increase of 6.07%; the closing price of EC2512 was 1,777.0 points, with a daily increase of 5.10% and a weekly increase of 8.38%; the closing price of EC2602 was 1,685.0 points, with a daily increase of 6.81% and a weekly increase of 8.31%; the closing price of EC2604 was 1,268.6 points, with a daily increase of 2.21% and a weekly increase of 2.38%; the closing price of EC2606 was 1,483.5 points, with a daily increase of 2.56% and a weekly increase of 1.98%; the closing price of EC2608 was 1,617.2 points, with a daily increase of 2.29% and a weekly increase of 1.07% [7]. - Regarding price spreads, EC2510 - 2602 was - 523.2 points, with a daily decrease of 49.5 points and a weekly decrease of 63 points; EC2602 - 2606 was 213.9 points, with a daily increase of 71.1 points and a weekly increase of 101.3 points; EC2606 - 2510 was 309.3 points, with a daily decrease of 21.6 points and a weekly decrease of 38.3 points; EC2510 - 2512 was - 610.1 points, with a daily decrease of 28.0 points and a weekly decrease of 70.7 points; EC2512 - 2602 was 86.9 points, with a daily decrease of 21.5 points and a weekly decrease of 14.8 points; EC2602 - 2604 was 411.1 points, with a daily increase of 84 points and a weekly increase of 100.2 points [7]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes (CY - CY, Shanghai - Rotterdam) - On October 15, for Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1,139, a $5 increase from the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1,900, a $10 increase from the previous period. On October 17, the total quote for 20GP was $1,085, a $5 increase from the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1,810, a $10 increase from the previous period [9]. Global Freight Rate Index - The latest value of SCFIS for the European Line was 1,254.92 points, a decrease of 185.32 points (- 12.87%) from the previous value; the latest value of SCFIS for the US West Line was 1,193.64 points, a decrease of 156.2 points (- 11.57%) from the previous value; the latest value of SCFI for the European Line was $971/TEU, a decrease of $81 (- 7.70%) from the previous value; the latest value of SCFI for the US West Line was $1,460/FEU, a decrease of $176 (- 10.76%) from the previous value; the latest value of XSI for the European Line was $1,874/FEU, a decrease of $42 (- 2.19%) from the previous value; the latest value of XSI for the US West Line was $1,844/FEU, a decrease of $27 (- 1.4%) from the previous value; the latest value of the FBX Composite Freight Rate Index was $1,863/FEU, a decrease of $2 (- 0.11%) from the previous value [10]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 25, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 2.079 days, an increase of 0.306 days from the previous day and 0.757 days from the same period last year; at Shanghai Port, it was 1.358 days, an increase of 0.068 days from the previous day and a decrease of 0.282 days from the same period last year; at Yantian Port, it was 0.638 days, an increase of 0.178 days from the previous day and a decrease of 0.204 days from the same period last year; at Singapore Port, it was 2.013 days, an increase of 0.846 days from the previous day and 1.411 days from the same period last year; at Jakarta Port, it was 0.924 days, a decrease of 0.174 days from the previous day and 0.863 days from the same period last year; at Long Beach Port, it was 1.935 days, a decrease of 0.344 days from the previous day and 0.337 days from the same period last year; at Savannah Port, it was 2.241 days, an increase of 0.763 days from the previous day and 0.892 days from the same period last year [15]. Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage - On September 25, 2025, the speed of container ships with a capacity of over 8,000 was 15.398 knots, a decrease of 0.03 knots from the previous day and 0.365 knots from the same period last year; the speed of container ships with a capacity of over 3,000 was 14.567 knots, an increase of 0.034 knots from the previous day and a decrease of 0.564 knots from the same period last year; the speed of container ships with a capacity of over 1,000 was 13.228 knots, a decrease of 0.074 knots from the previous day and 0.217 knots from the same period last year. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 32, an increase of 17 from the previous day and 21 from the same period last year [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - New grain seasonal supply is abundant, putting pressure on spot prices later; soybean No. 1 futures are supported by short - covering, leading to a second - day rebound; the resumption of auctions increases market supply pressure, and attention should be paid to transaction volume [4]. - There are potential policy support and short - covering factors that are favorable, while the resumption of auctions is a negative factor [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Prediction - The price range prediction for the soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3850 - 4000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 31.4% [3]. 3.2 Risk Strategies - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long spot positions such as planting entities with high autumn harvest selling needs and facing short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short soybean No. 1 futures (A2511) with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is in the range of 4000 - 4050; also, sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% ratio when the option price is in the range of 30 - 50 to increase the selling price [3]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot in the medium - term, focus on forward procurement management, and wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter, with long positions in A2603 and A2605 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions and Market Analysis - **Core Contradictions**: New grain supply is seasonally abundant, pressuring spot prices; futures are supported by short - covering; the resumption of auctions intensifies supply pressure [4]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: On September 25, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference on increasing the large - scale yield per unit of grain and oil crops and "Three Autumn" production, which may lead to relevant policies; the short - side of the 11 - contract continued to reduce positions significantly, supporting the futures price to rebound continuously; the acquisition demand driven by the return - grain operation in the first half of 2025 provided phased support to the market [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: On September 26, 2025, the e - commerce platform of Sinograin organized a domestic soybean auction with a sales volume of 19349 tons, and Liangda.com planned two auctions on the same day, increasing the pressure on the spot market [4]. 3.4 Price Changes - From September 24 to September 25, 2025, the closing prices of soybean No. 1 contracts (11, 01, 03, 05, 07, 09) all increased, with daily increases ranging from 0.38% to 0.56% [4][6].

——现货磨底 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响尿素走势的核心矛盾有以下几点：一是季节性的需求淡季，二是出口预期的结束。我们认为尿 素或维持震荡走势。我们可以看到，近期尿素价格走势和现货情况呈现了高度的相关性，后期需要关注现货 成交情况。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 source： 南华研究,同花顺 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 23/12 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 25/08 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 source： 南华研究 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 0 2 4 6 虽然尿素增设了交割库，但最便宜可交割品地点仍为河南与山东。考虑到01合约出口预期消失，1-5月差走反 套。由于01合约还有秋季肥预期，尿素01合约仍有升水。 南华期货尿素产业周报 * 远端交易预期 截止本周国内尿素日产20.01万吨，下周潞安大颗粒、赤天化装置陆续恢复，金象装置检修，天泽检修计划或 有推迟，预计下周国内尿素日产量继续小幅提 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - New season supply pressure is emerging, with new grain quotes falling after a high opening, and prices will remain under pressure during the peak listing period [1] - Current corn supply is limited, with harvest delayed in some areas. Spot prices are more resilient than futures, and the futures market has rebounded [1] - The current basis is at a relatively high level, and there is a risk of decline as new grain floods the market [1] - CBOT corn is consolidating at a low level, digesting the pressure of a bumper harvest and waiting for further supply - side guidance [1] - Argentina's short - term export policy is volatile, causing unexpected disturbances to agricultural product prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1利多解读 (Positive Factors) - On September 25, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference on increasing the large - scale yield per unit area of grain and oil crops and the "Three Autumns" production. The purchase and reserve policy of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation may be introduced depending on price movements, but there is uncertainty [1] - In August, imported corn remained at a low level, resulting in less substitution pressure [1] - The supply of old - season grain is tight, and harvest is delayed in some areas. It will take time to replenish. Deep - processing enterprises' rigid demand for restocking supports spot prices [1] 3.2利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the temporary oversupply of supply is putting pressure on prices [2] - Grain sources in the Northeast production area are restricted by prices and difficult to transport out. Local enterprises still focus on price control [2] 3.3 Corn & Starch Futures Price Changes - Corn futures: On September 25, 2025, compared with September 24, 2025, corn 11 rose by 1 (0.05%), corn 01 fell by 3 (- 0.14%), corn 03 fell by 3 (- 0.14%), corn 05 fell by 6 (- 0.27%), corn 07 fell by 5 (- 0.23%), and corn 09 remained unchanged (0.00%) [1] - Corn starch futures: On September 25, 2025, compared with September 24, 2025, corn starch 11 rose by 5 (0.20%), corn starch 01 fell by 1 (- 0.04%), corn starch 03 fell by 3 (- 0.12%), corn starch 05 fell by 3 (- 0.12%), corn starch 07 fell by 4 (- 0.16%), and corn starch 09 fell by 9 (- 0.35%) [1] - Wheat average price: On September 25, 2025, it rose by 2 (0.08%) compared with September 24, 2025 [1] 3.4 Corn & Starch Spot Prices and Main - contract Basis - Corn spot prices: On September 25, 2025, the price in Jinzhou Port remained unchanged at 2300, the price in Shekou Port rose by 10 to 2460, and the price in Harbin remained unchanged at 2170 [10] - Corn starch spot prices: On September 25, 2025, the price in Shandong remained unchanged at 2780, the price in Jilin remained unchanged at 2570, and the price in Heilongjiang remained unchanged at 2500 [10] - Corn basis: On September 25, 2025, the main - contract basis in Jinzhou Port fell by 1 to 135 [10] - Corn starch basis: On September 25, 2025, the main - contract basis in Shandong fell by 5 to 306 [10] 3.5 U.S. Corn Prices and Import Profits - On September 25, 2025, CBOT corn main - contract rose by 0.75 (0.18%) to 424.75, COBT soybean main - contract rose by 3.5 (0.35%) to 1012, CBOT wheat main - contract rose by 6.75 (1.3%) to 526.25 [23] - The duty - paid price in the U.S. Gulf rose by 5.3 (0.25%) to 2151.47, with an import profit of 298.53; the duty - paid price in the U.S. West rose by 5.26 (0.26%) to 2008.88, with an import profit of 441.12 [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include poor profit conditions in most downstream industries, leading to resistance to high - priced propylene. The market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors are cost support from strong overseas propane prices and some enterprise maintenance plans due to PDH profit losses; negative factors are the limited ability of the PP end to accept high - priced propylene, a weakening of the fundamentals this week, an expansion of the supply - demand gap in the Shandong market, and a decline in spot prices followed by low - level fluctuations [3][6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 6250 - 6600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0556, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 0.1666 [2]. - **Hedging Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short - allocate propylene futures (PL2601) at high prices with a 50% hedging ratio in the 6500 - 6600 yuan/ton range. They can also sell call options (PL2601C6600) to collect premiums with a 50% ratio in the 100 - 120 yuan range [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy propylene futures (PL2601) at low prices with a 25% hedging ratio around 6300 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (PL2601P6000) to collect premiums with a 25% ratio in the 30 - 40 yuan range [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Cost support from strong overseas propane prices, with the cost estimated by CP01 at 6300 - 6400 yuan/ton. Some enterprises have maintenance plans due to PDH profit losses [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The PP end has limited ability to accept high - priced propylene, and the PP - propylene price spread is still low. This week, the fundamentals weakened, the supply - demand gap in the Shandong market expanded, and spot prices declined and then fluctuated at a low level [6]. 3.3 Industry Data Summary - **Upstream Prices**: On September 23, 2025, Brent crude oil was at $67.17/barrel (up $1.16 from the previous day, down $0.86 from the previous week), WTI was at $63.65/barrel (up $1.31, down $0.18), etc. [7]. - **Mid - stream Prices**: The price of propylene in East China was 6350 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan from the previous day, down 100 yuan from the previous week), and in Shandong was 6485 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan, down 65 yuan) [7]. - **Downstream Prices**: Polypropylene powder was at 6710 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 60 yuan from the previous week), and polypropylene pellets were at 6775 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan, down 25 yuan) [7]. - **Profits**: Main refinery profit was 823.98 yuan/ton (down 98.7 yuan from a previous record), MTO monomer profit was - 216.67 yuan/ton (down 24.17 yuan from the previous day, down 33.33 yuan from the previous week), etc. [7]. - **Price Spreads**: The PP01 - PL01 spread was 515 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan from the previous day, down 10 yuan from the previous week), and the PL01 - 02 spread was - 35 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan, down 19 yuan) [7].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets showed a strong and volatile trend. The nickel ore supply was unstable due to sanctions on mining companies in Indonesia and the approaching quota approval in October. The cobalt price was expected to rise, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The nickel iron price decreased due to stainless - steel demand constraints, and the stainless - steel market was also strong but with weak spot trading. The decline of the US dollar in the macro - level led to an upward movement in the non - ferrous metals market [3] - There were both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors included the proposed revision of the HPM formula in Indonesia, the shortening of the nickel ore quota period, continuous de - stocking of stainless steel, and the takeover of some nickel - producing areas. Negative factors included high pure nickel inventory, tariff disturbances, and weak stainless - steel spot trading [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel was 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The predicted price range of stainless steel was 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.95% and a historical percentile of 0.3% [2] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Market Data Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main Contract | 122,990 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 1 | 122,990 | 1,540 | 1.27% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 2 | 123,160 | 1,530 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 3 | 123,350 | 1,460 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,240 | - 195 | - 1.20% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 177,030 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 99,642 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 25,153 | 48 | 0.19% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | - 505 | 185 | - 26.8% | yuan/ton | [5] Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main Contract | 12,930 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 1 | 12,930 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 2 | 12,970 | 30 | 0.23% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 3 | 13,030 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 129,897 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 109,896 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 87,505 | - 298 | - 0.34% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | 640 | - 35 | - 5.19% | yuan/ton | [5] Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value | Change from Previous Period | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel | 41,484 tons | + 429 tons | | LME Nickel Inventory | 230,586 tons | 0 tons | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 909 tons | + 11.8 tons | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 28,652 tons | - 614.5 tons | [6] Positive and Negative Factors - **Positive Factors**: The Indonesian APNI planned to revise the HPM formula, the nickel ore quota period was shortened from three years to one year, stainless steel had been de - stocking for several weeks, and the Indonesian forestry working group took over part of the nickel - producing area of PT Weda Bay [5] - **Negative Factors**: The pure nickel inventory was high, there were still tariff disturbances between China and the US, the EU stainless - steel import tariff was uncertain, the anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates in South Korea was implemented, and the stainless - steel spot trading was weak [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening. The supply - side production fluctuates normally due to maintenance, and the chlor - alkali profit remains above 300. Non - aluminum demand is the main rigid demand, and the pre - holiday restocking is less than expected. The future market depends on the spot price rhythm, the prosperity of the peak season, and the downstream restocking enthusiasm [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2500 - 2900 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 22.00%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 39.1% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2800 - 2850 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SH601C2800) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 70 - 80 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. - **Procurement Management**: - For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2500 - 2550 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SH601P2480) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 70 - 80 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. 3.3 Market Data - **Caustic Soda Futures Contracts**: - On September 26, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2623 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day; the 09 contract was 2661 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or 0.26%; the 01 contract was 2528 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.35% [3]. - The month - spread (5 - 9) was - 38 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the month - spread (9 - 1) was 133 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the month - spread (1 - 5) was - 95 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The 05 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) was - 217 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the 09 contract basis was - 255 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 01 contract basis was - 122 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [3]. - **Caustic Soda Factory Prices**: - The ex - factory prices of 32% caustic soda and 50% caustic soda from various brands in different regions on September 26, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [4][6]. - **Flake Caustic Soda Market Prices**: - The market prices of flake caustic soda in different regions on September 26, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [7]. - **Price Spreads**: - The price spreads between different grades and regions of caustic soda on September 26, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [7]. 3.4 Seasonal Data - Seasonal charts of caustic soda futures month - spreads (09 - 11, 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 09 - 01) and basis (09 and 01 contracts in Shandong) are provided, but no specific data analysis is given in the text [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Near the holiday, there are signs of capital withdrawal, with a significant contraction in the trading volume of the two markets today. Technology concepts led the decline, while the dividend index rose. To cope with holiday uncertainties in the short term, risk aversion has increased. Although the stock market fluctuated frequently this week, as previously mentioned, the central point did not change much, showing a pre - holiday stable transition and wide - range shock market. There are only two trading days next week. If there are no unexpected factors, the stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate. Domestic PMI data will be released, and attention should be paid to its changes. If capital flow intensifies before the holiday, it may increase the stock market's amplitude. It is recommended to gradually lighten the position and buy the straddle option strategy next week [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - The stock index declined overall today. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed down 0.95%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 224.05 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties declined with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will launch a RMB business capital arrangement from October 9 this year, replacing the existing RMB trade financing liquidity arrangement, and implementing multiple optimization measures and expanding eligible capital uses. - Seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)". - Trump announced that starting from October 1, a 50% import tariff will be imposed on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, a 30% tariff on imported furniture, and a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs [3]. Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.04 | -0.47 | -1.47 | -1.39 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 12.1085 | 4.8226 | 13.6035 | 24.299 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | -1.2397 | -0.3587 | 0.637 | 3.0154 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.9924 | 9.5988 | 25.2224 | 36.4864 | | Open interest change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | -0.6449 | 0.1041 | 0.3365 | 1.1537 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.65 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.76 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.53 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 21468.85 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (100 million yuan) | -2242.05 | [6]