Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The palm oil futures are expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend. Short - term operation is recommended to focus on low - buying transactions. Key factors to watch include Malaysian palm oil production and export data, the repair change of the soybean - palm oil price difference, and the implementation progress of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the national average spot price of palm oil was 8,450 - 8,550 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 120 - 150 yuan/ton. Port quotes strengthened with futures, and transactions were mainly for rigid demand. The basis fluctuated between - 56 and - 18 yuan/ton, with futures slightly stronger than spot, increasing traders' hedging willingness and keeping downstream stocking at a steady pace [1] Supply Situation - Malaysian palm oil production has decreased as expected, and domestic arrivals have slowed down. From December 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month (SPPOMA), and the rainy - season production decline has materialized. From December 1 - 25, exports increased by 43.6% month - on - month (shipping agencies), inventory growth slowed down, and BMD palm oil led the increase, boosting the domestic market. Indonesia's B50 policy is advancing, and biodiesel demand supports the CPO price [1] Demand Situation - Holiday stocking and substitution effects provide rigid support. New Year's Day stocking has started, and food processing enterprises are making small - batch replenishments, with palm oil transactions increasing by 8 - 10% month - on - month. The catering consumption is recovering, and palm oil is substituting for soybean oil in the mid - and low - end markets, enhancing demand resilience [1] Cost - Profit Analysis - The table shows the palm oil shipping schedule quotes and import profit calculations for 2025.12.22. For example, for the January shipping schedule, the CNF in South China is 1055, the forward exchange rate is 7.0032, the import cost is 8858 yuan/ton, the market price is 8558 yuan/ton, and the profit against the market is - 300 yuan/ton [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Synthetic rubber: Weakly bearish [1] - Silver: Caution against excessive bullishness [1] - Live pigs: Short - term rebound adjustment [3] - Rapeseed meal: Bullish in the short - term [4] - Palm oil: Bullish in the short - term [4] - Crude oil: Weakly bearish [5] - Asphalt: Weakly bearish [7] - Copper: Alert to price correction risks [7] - Methanol: Bearish in the short - term [8] - Soda ash: Slightly bearish in the short - term [9] - PVC: Bullish in the short - term [10] - Long - term treasury bonds: Slightly bullish for long - term, more bullish for short - term [11] - Gold: Caution against excessive bullishness, mid - term high - level oscillation [11] Core Views - The supply and demand situation of various commodities affects their price trends. For example, high domestic production capacity utilization and new production plans suppress the price increase of synthetic rubber, while the increase in exports and decline in production support the price of palm oil [1][4]. - Macro - events and policies have an impact on the market. For instance, the Japanese economic situation affects the silver market, and the expected monetary policy environment in China affects the bond market [1][11]. - The resolution of geopolitical conflicts may change the market sentiment. The potential peace plan in the Russia - Ukraine conflict may reduce the safe - haven demand for gold and silver [11]. Summary by Commodity Synthetic Rubber - As of December 26, the weekly capacity utilization of butadiene was 70.61%, up 0.6% from last week, and the port inventory was 43,300 tons, up 7,300 tons. In November 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 13.01 million tons, down 0.75 million tons from the previous month. As of December 25, the weekly capacity utilization of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 76.76%, up 0.5% from last week. High domestic main - unit operating rates and new production and restart plans suppress spot price increases. Demand from industries like tires is in the end - of - year stocking phase, with weak willingness to buy at high prices [1]. Silver - The Japanese cabinet passed the initial budget for fiscal year 2026, with general account expenditures reaching 122.31 trillion yen, up about 7 trillion yen year - on - year. The economic recovery in Japan provides support for the Bank of Japan's implementation of a tight monetary policy. Silver has risen too much, with insufficient short - term upward momentum and an increased probability of peaking [1]. Live Pigs - As of December 26, the average live - pig slaughter weight was 123.55 kg, down 0.12 kg; the weekly slaughter operating rate was 40.12%, up 0.53%; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 223.82 yuan per head, up 9.91 yuan; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was - 66.57 yuan per head, up 6.58 yuan; the piglet price was 217.38 yuan per head, down 1.19 yuan. The national pig price rose significantly on the weekend. Supply is generally abundant, but there is a short - term shortage of medium and large pigs, supporting a phased price rebound [3]. Rapeseed Meal - As of the 51st week of 2025, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, down 0.02 million tons from last week; the inventory in East China was 17.91 million tons, unchanged; the inventory in South China was 24 million tons, down 0.80 million tons; the inventory in North China was 3.75 million tons, down 0.24 million tons; the total inventory in major regions was 45.66 million tons, down 1.06 million tons. The delayed import of rapeseed for crushing in China leads to a short - term shortage of rapeseed meal supply, and the spot price has risen [4]. Palm Oil - From December 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 8.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.12% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from December 1 - 25, 2025, was 1,017,897 tons, up 3.0% from the same period last month. The increase in exports and decline in production provide continuous bullish support for the market [4]. Crude Oil - Russia's crude oil production in 2025 will be about 516 million tons, the same as last year, and is expected to increase to 525 million tons in 2026. Investors are worried about global over - supply, and international oil prices have fallen by more than 2%. However, Russia will continue to operate within the OPEC+ framework, so its oil supply will still be adjusted according to OPEC+ goals [5]. Asphalt - In January 2026, the domestic asphalt total planned production is 2 million tons, down 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and down 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. The capacity utilization of 69 domestic sample modified asphalt enterprises this week was 7.1%, down 0.6% month - on - month and up 0.8% year - on - year. As of December 25, 2025, the total social inventory of domestic asphalt in 104 warehouses was 1.071 million tons. The shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises this week was 404,000 tons, up 15.4% month - on - month. The market has limited upward driving force due to weak fundamentals and sufficient raw material supply [7]. Copper - MMG has approved the feasibility study of the major expansion project of the Khoemacau copper mine in Botswana and officially started construction. The project aims to increase the annual production capacity to 130,000 tons of copper in copper concentrate and the annual production of associated silver to more than 4 million ounces. The project is expected to produce the first batch of copper concentrate in the first half of 2028. The new copper mine is unlikely to relieve the short - term supply shortage. High copper prices have suppressed downstream procurement, and there is a risk of price correction [7]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, is 2,135 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The weekly domestic methanol capacity utilization is 91.24%, up 0.71% month - on - month. The 400,000 - ton/year methanol plant of Sichuan Lutianhua is expected to end maintenance this week. The total downstream capacity utilization is 74.26%, down 0.52% week - on - week. The inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4125 million tons, up 193,700 tons week - on - week. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 404,000 tons, up 12,800 tons week - on - week, and the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises are 193,600 tons, down 26,800 tons week - on - week. High domestic methanol production and falling downstream demand lead to a large increase in port inventory [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - duty soda ash is 1,255 yuan/ton, with a stable recent price. The weekly soda ash production is 711,900 tons, down 1.32% month - on - month. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.4385 million tons, down 4.06% week - on - week. The operating rate of float glass is 73.89%, down 0.1 percentage points week - on - week. The national average price of float glass is 1,076 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 58.623 million weight boxes, up 0.11% week - on - week. The domestic soda ash market is stable and dull, with light trading [9]. PVC - The price of SG - 5 PVC in East China is 4,500 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PVC capacity utilization is 77.23%, down 0.15% month - on - month. The PVC social inventory is 1.0611 million tons, up 0.43% month - on - month. The average profit of national calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises is - 760 yuan/ton; the average profit of national ethylene - based PVC production enterprises is - 336 yuan/ton. The operating rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises is 36.2%, down 1.4 percentage points month - on - month. The supply is expected to increase slightly this week, and the market may see a holiday - related inventory build - up. The demand is weak, but the cost provides strong support [10]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The CSRC and other relevant departments will improve the institutional and policy environment for long - term investment, increase the scale and proportion of medium - and long - term funds invested in A - shares, and promote the improvement of the quality of listed companies. The long - term funds in the stock market still support the stock market. There is an expectation of monetary easing at the beginning of the year, resulting in a double - bull pattern of stocks and bonds [11]. Gold - Trump and Zelensky held a meeting on the proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace plan." Trump said that both Zelensky and Putin hope to reach a peace agreement. The resolution of the Russia - Ukraine conflict needs continuous attention, and the safe - haven sentiment may further cool down [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The supply - side pressure of coking coal is released, and with downstream winter storage and anti - involution expectations, the market sentiment turns strong. Pay attention to downstream replenishment rhythm [1]. - PTA is expected to have inventory reduction in December and no inventory accumulation pressure in January. In the long - term, processing fees will improve. Adopt a bullish strategy at low levels [1]. - The iron ore market has strong supply and weak demand, and futures prices are expected to be under pressure [3]. - Rebar prices may have a weak and narrow - range adjustment in the short - term [3]. - The short - term price of live pigs will rebound and then weaken. Monitor southern curing and farmers' slaughter volume [4]. - The increase in palm oil exports is limited, and prices will be volatile and bullish in the short - term [4]. - The spot price of soybean meal has support, while the M05 contract is bullish in the short - term. It may be pressured if imports increase and demand doesn't improve [5]. - It's better to wait and see for crude oil in the short - term due to geopolitical concerns [6]. - Adopt a bullish strategy at low levels for natural rubber in the short - term [7]. - Copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock in the short - term [8]. - The probability of silver peaking in the short - term increases, and avoid over - bullish positions [8]. - Methanol is expected to be bearish in the short - term due to strong supply and weak demand [9][10]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be in a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [10]. - Gold may be in a high - level shock in the medium - term, and avoid over - bullish positions [11]. - The bond market should be viewed with a volatile mindset in the short - term [11]. - Plastics are expected to have a volatile trend in the short - term [12]. Summary by Commodity Coking Coal - This week, the utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine sample approved production capacity was 84.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4%. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.874 million tons, a decrease of 54,000 tons week - on - week, and the raw coal inventory was 4.831 million tons, an increase of 42,000 tons week - on - week [1]. PTA - The PTA social inventory was 2.937 million tons, a decrease of 53,700 tons from the previous statistical period. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.53%, and the polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate was around 86.66% [1]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 88.342 million tons, a decrease of 1.5053 million tons week - on - week. The daily consumption of imported ore was 0.28327 million tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons week - on - week. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.19 days, a decrease of 0.33 days week - on - week [3]. Rebar - As of the week of December 25, the output was 0.18439 million tons, an increase of 27,100 tons from last week, a growth rate of 1.49%. The factory inventory was 0.14006 million tons, an increase of 5200 tons from last week, a growth rate of 0.37%. The social inventory was 0.29419 million tons, a decrease of 188,100 tons from last week, a decline rate of 6.01%. The apparent demand was 0.20268 million tons, a decrease of 59,600 tons from last week, a decline rate of 2.86% [3]. Live Pigs - On December 25, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.44 yuan/kg, a 0.5% increase from the previous day, and the price of eggs was 7.32 yuan/kg, a 1.5% decrease from the previous day [4]. Palm Oil - From December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 1,058,112 tons, a 1.6% increase compared to the same period last month [4]. Soybean Meal - As of December 25, the domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The price in Tianjin was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shandong it was 3050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu it was 3030 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong it was 3040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [5]. Crude Oil - Due to the Western Christmas holiday, international crude oil futures were closed on December 25. Russia will suspend production increase from January next year [6]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material latex was 54.7 Thai baht/kg (- 0.5/- 0.91%), and the price of cup lump was 50.85 Thai baht/kg (0.05/0.1%). The price of Hainan latex for whole - milk production was 14,900 yuan/ton (0/0%), and for concentrated latex production was also 14,900 yuan/ton (0/0%). Hainan's production is decreasing, and some areas have stopped tapping. Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 11 months increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and exports to China increased by 24% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 percentage points, and the full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.94 percentage points [7]. Copper - Workers at Glencore's Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile may go on strike on December 29, which may cause monthly losses of over $100 million to the company. The mine's expected copper cathode production in 2025 is 29,000 - 32,000 metric tons [8]. Silver - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi's remarks boosted the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, but silver's upward momentum is insufficient [8]. Methanol - The methanol market price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The domestic weekly methanol capacity utilization rate was 91.24%, a week - on - week increase of 0.71%. The downstream total capacity utilization rate was 74.26%, a weekly decrease of 0.52%. The Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 1.4125 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.1937 million tons. The Chinese methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 0.0404 million tons, a weekly increase of 12,800 tons, and the sample enterprise orders to be shipped were 0.01936 million tons, a weekly decrease of 26,800 tons [9]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1256 yuan/ton, and the price was relatively stable recently. The weekly soda ash production was 711,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.32%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.4385 million tons, a weekly decrease of 4.06%. The float glass开工率 was 73.89%, a weekly decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The national average price of float glass was 1076 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. The total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 58.623 million weight cases, a week - on - week increase of 0.11% [10]. Gold - The Japanese government raised its economic growth forecast for fiscal year 2025 to 1.1% and expects a 1.3% growth in fiscal year 2026, which may support gold prices [11]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank continued to over - renew MLF and conduct outright reverse repurchases in December, releasing 300 billion yuan of long - term liquidity. The net investment of the two tools this year totaled 4.961 trillion yuan [11]. Plastics - The supply - demand situation of plastics is that supply is strong and demand is weak. Enterprises have inventory pressure, and the cost of crude oil is stable [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The PTA market is expected to have a better situation than previously anticipated, with a de - stocking balance sheet in December and no inventory accumulation pressure in January. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [1]. - The silver market has increased the probability of a short - term peak, and excessive bullish sentiment is not recommended [1]. - The iron ore market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term, and is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The coking coal market sentiment has turned from weak to strong, and attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm [3]. - The steel market is in a weak balance of supply and demand, and steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range [4]. - The pig price is expected to rebound and then weaken in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in southern curing and farmers' slaughter volume [4]. - The palm oil price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short term [5]. - The soybean meal price is expected to run in the range of 2700 - 2790 yuan/ton in the short term, and the price will continue to be under pressure if the supply pressure increases and demand does not improve [6]. - The copper price has reached a new high driven by macro and supply factors, but lacks demand support, and price fluctuations should be vigilant [7]. - The crude oil supply is still sufficient, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [8]. - The natural rubber market is expected to oscillate [9]. - Gold should not be overly bullish, and mid - term high - level oscillation is expected [10]. - The bond market should not be bearish in the short term, and a waiting - and - watching attitude is recommended [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Polyester market inventory is concentrated at 14 - 24 days, and the average polyester sales rate is 34.7%. Near - term maintenance is frequent, and the balance sheet will de - stock in December. PTA supply has not recovered, and there is no inventory accumulation pressure in January. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve [1]. Silver - The US labor market shows no obvious pressure, which is beneficial to silver, but the upward momentum is insufficient, and the probability of a short - term peak has increased [1]. Iron Ore - From December 15th to 21st, global iron ore shipments decreased. Overseas shipments and domestic arrivals are at a high level in the same period of history, and port inventories are rising. The demand is weak in the off - season, and the iron ore market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term [3]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants decreased, and the supply - side pressure was released. Market sentiment has turned from weak to strong, and attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm [3]. Rebar - The steel market is in a weak balance of supply and demand, with low inventory pressure. Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range due to cost support [4]. Pig - The pig price rebounded recently, but the overall supply is loose, and it is expected to weaken after the rebound. Attention should be paid to southern curing and farmers' slaughter volume [4]. Palm Oil - The palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1st to 20th decreased by 7.44% compared with the previous month, which supports the price. The price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short term [5]. Soybean Meal - The spot price of soybean meal has obvious bottom support. The main M05 contract is expected to run in the range of 2700 - 2790 yuan/ton in the short term. If the supply pressure increases and demand does not improve, the price will continue to be under pressure [6]. Copper - The copper price has reached a new high driven by macro and supply factors, but downstream procurement demand is suppressed, and there is a situation of high price but no market. Price fluctuations should be vigilant [7]. Crude Oil - The EU's oil and LNG imports from the US have decreased. The oil supply is still sufficient, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [8]. Natural Rubber - The domestic rubber - producing areas are gradually entering the off - season, and the supply elasticity is weakening. The inventory in Qingdao is increasing, and the tire market is weak. The market is expected to oscillate [9]. Gold - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates with a limited range in 2026. Gold should not be overly bullish, and mid - term high - level oscillation is expected [10]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The follow - up monetary policy relaxation time point is worthy of attention. The bond market should not be bearish in the short term, and a waiting - and - watching attitude is recommended [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US Q3 GDP data significantly exceeded expectations, and product orders and shipments also rebounded, indicating a relatively strong economy and boosting risk appetite. The interest - rate cut cycle still provides positive support for silver. Pay attention to the impact of gold fluctuations on silver and protect profits [1]. - For PTA, there are many near - term maintenance activities. The December balance sheet shows inventory reduction, and there is no pressure for inventory accumulation in January. The long - term PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve. With many PX maintenance activities in the second quarter of next year, long - term expectations are good. Adopt a bullish strategy at low prices [1]. - For live pigs, the pig price rose in the north and remained stable in the south yesterday. In the short term, the supply of medium and large pigs is tight, but the terminal acceptance is average. Under the overall loose supply background, the price is expected to weaken after a short - term rebound. Pay attention to southern bacon - making and farmers' slaughter volume [3]. - For palm oil, the market has doubts about the implementation progress of Indonesia's B50 plan. The improvement in Malaysian palm oil exports and the month - on - month decline in production support the price. The price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range with a bullish bias in the short term. Pay attention to whether it can break through the upper resistance level [4]. - For iron ore, the supply is strong while the demand is weak in the short term due to high overseas shipments, rising port inventories, and weakening terminal demand in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to steel mills' winter storage and restocking rhythm [5]. - For rebar, steel market transactions were poor yesterday. Steel mills have strong price - support intentions due to low production and inventory pressure, and high arrival costs of steel traders also support the price. The steel price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term [5]. - For soybean meal, the main M05 contract is suppressed by the expectation of loose supply and demand and is expected to trade in the range of 2700 - 2790 yuan/ton in the short term. The M01 contract follows the logic of spot - futures convergence. The spot price has obvious bottom - support and fluctuates around 3000 - 3050 yuan/ton [6]. - For long - term treasury bonds, the main logic of the bond market is not obvious due to the interweaving of fiscal and monetary policies. The bond market should not be shorted in the short term and is expected to fluctuate. Wait for the main trend to become clearer [7]. - For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern remains loose. The price of manganese ore is high, but manufacturers' profits are poor, and demand from steel mills is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [7]. - For gold, the selection of the next Fed chairperson may cause market disturbances. Gold should not be overly bullish, and be cautious about chasing high prices. It may fluctuate at a high level in the medium term. Pay attention to the interaction between gold and silver [8]. - For aluminum, the market has both bullish and bearish factors. New mines in Guinea and lower long - term contract prices suggest loose upstream supply, but capacity constraints form a price bottom. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory may not continue to decline. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [8]. - For crude oil, the supply is still abundant. The situation in Venezuela has affected its oil export logistics, and the follow - up impact needs close attention. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [9]. - For methanol, the domestic methanol operating rate is high, while downstream demand has declined slightly. The port inventory has decreased slightly but is expected to increase this week. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10]. - For natural rubber, the domestic production area is entering the off - season, reducing short - term supply elasticity. The inventory in Qingdao is increasing, and the tire industry has weak demand. The price is expected to fluctuate [11]. - For soda ash, the float glass market is stable with slightly rising inventory. The domestic soda ash market is weak, with low - price transactions. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly downward in the short term due to high inventory and new capacity [12]. - For ethylene glycol, the factory profit is low, the supply pressure has eased, the port inventory has increased, the downstream polyester is stable with a certain production - cut expectation, and the terminal weaving industry has weak demand. The price is expected to decline in the short term [13]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Silver - The US Q3 real GDP initial annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate was 4.3%, much higher than the expected 3.3%, the fastest in two years. Consumption expenditure was the main driver of growth, with a quarterly growth rate of 3.5%. The core PCE price index rose 2.9% in Q3. In addition, US core capital goods orders and shipments rebounded in October [1]. PTA - The weekly average operating rate of PTA plants was 74.8%, unchanged from the previous week. The weekly PTA output was 1.411 million tons, unchanged. The social inventory of TA was 2.9861 million tons, a decrease of 57,800 tons from the previous statistical period [1]. Live Pigs - On December 23, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 130.52, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 133.46. As of 14:00, the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.53 yuan/kg, a 0.2% decrease from the previous day, and the egg price was 7.48 yuan/kg, unchanged [3]. Palm Oil - On December 23, Indonesia set the 2026 biofuel production quota at 15.646 million kiloliters, compared with 1.560 million liters in 2025. Indonesia has mandated a 40% palm oil blending ratio in diesel and plans to increase it to 50% next year [4]. Iron Ore - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 162.2553 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1406 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.2823 million tons, a decrease of 59,400 tons [5]. Rebar - On December 23, the domestic steel market showed mixed trends. The ex - factory tax - included price of common billets in Qian'an, Tangshan remained stable at 2950 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3329 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day [5]. Soybean Meal - On December 23, the domestic soybean meal spot market price was stable with a weak bias. The price in Tianjin was 3080 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3040 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu was 3020 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong was 3030 yuan/ton, all unchanged [6]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - Local governments are preparing to issue government bonds in early 2026 to finance major projects. The expected financing scale in the first quarter has exceeded 1 trillion yuan. As of December 22, at least 14 provinces and municipalities have announced their government bond issuance plans for the first quarter or January of 2026, with a cumulative issuance scale of nearly 1.2 trillion yuan [6][7]. Manganese Silicon - Mysteel statistics of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises show that the national capacity utilization rate was 36.61%, a 1.24% increase from the previous week, and the daily average output was 26,890 tons/day, a decrease of 145 tons [7]. Gold - US President Trump posted that he hopes the next Fed chairperson will cut interest rates when the economy and the market are performing well, rather than "killing the market" in advance due to inflation concerns [8]. Aluminum - On December 20, 2025, Nimba Mining Company in Guinea's Boké Region officially started bauxite mining. The company plans to achieve an annual bauxite output of 10 million tons by 2026 and build an alumina plant. In the first quarter of 2026, the long - term contract price of bauxite from large Guinean mining enterprises decreased by about 5.5 US dollars/dry ton quarter - on - quarter [8]. Crude Oil - As of the week of December 23, the number of active oil - drilling rigs in the US was 409, an increase of 3 from the previous week and a decrease of 74 from the same period last year. Russia and the US held a new round of talks on "thorny issues", and the main problems remain unresolved. A new round of contact may be held in early spring. At the beginning of this week, the oil loading operation speed in Venezuela slowed down significantly [9]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol samples from northwest production enterprises was 24,100 tons, a decrease of 35,600 tons from the previous week. The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2132 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The national methanol capacity utilization rate was 90.52%, a 0.81% week - on - week increase. The total downstream capacity utilization rate was 74.45%, a 0.87% week - on - week decrease. The port inventory of methanol samples in China was 1.2188 million tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons from the previous week, while the inventory of sample production enterprises was 391,100 tons, an increase of 38,300 tons [10]. Natural Rubber - In Thailand, the price of raw materials showed mixed trends. The price of latex decreased by 0.3 Thai baht/kg to 55.7 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump rubber increased by 0.05 Thai baht/kg to 50.8 Thai baht/kg. In Yunnan, the raw material price was stable, with the price of rubber blocks ranging from 12.8 to 13.1 yuan/kg. In Hainan, the production was gradually decreasing, with the central and eastern regions stopping production and the western region gradually reducing production. By the end of the month, production may basically stop, and the purchase price of latex from some private processing plants dropped to 14,600 - 14,800 yuan/ton. ANRPC data showed that the global natural rubber production in November decreased by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. According to the data of the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, the sales volume of the EU passenger car market in November increased by 2.1% to 887,500 vehicles [11]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - duty soda ash was 1256 yuan/ton, and the price was relatively stable recently. The weekly output of soda ash was 721,400 tons, a 1.9% week - on - week decrease. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.4993 million tons, a 0.33% week - on - week increase. The operating rate of float glass was 73.99%, a 0.15 - percentage - point week - on - week increase. The average price of national float glass was 1080 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million weight boxes, a 0.57% week - on - week increase [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3522 yuan/ton, a decrease of 93 yuan/ton. The weekly output of domestic ethylene glycol was 386,800 tons, a 0.41% week - on - week decrease. The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 659,800 tons, a 31,900 - ton week - on - week increase. The capacity utilization rate of the domestic polyester industry was 87.47%, relatively stable recently. The comprehensive operating rate of the main domestic weaving production bases was 52.03%, a 0.46 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The expectation of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is strengthened, which provides support for precious metals, especially silver, during the interest rate cut cycle. Attention should be paid to the impact of gold fluctuations on silver and profit protection [1]. - The domestic soda ash market is in a volatile state, with prices remaining stable but weak. New production capacity puts pressure on the market, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [1]. - The steel market is in a weak balance between supply and demand, with stable cost support, and steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. - The silicon iron market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with high costs supporting the price bottom. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level around the cost valuation [4]. - The coke market has little fundamental contradiction, and prices mainly follow the cost of coking coal. The possibility of further price cuts is small due to winter storage demand [5]. - The funds are loose, which supports the bond market. The short - term bond market should be viewed with a volatile mindset, and the evolution of the expectation of monetary policy easing should be observed [6]. - The selection of the new Fed Chairman may cause market disturbances. Gold is not recommended to be over - bullish and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [6]. - The pig market has strong supply and weak demand, especially in the southern region. Pig prices are expected to weaken after a short - term rebound [7]. - The soybean meal market is under pressure due to increased soybean supply and high inventory. The domestic futures contract is expected to oscillate in a certain range and may decline if the South American harvest is good [8]. - The palm oil market is supported by improved exports and reduced production in Malaysia. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [9]. - The copper market is driven by macro - easing expectations and tight mine supply, but the consumption end has limited support. Copper prices may be strong in the short term but are at risk of increased high - level volatility [10]. - The methanol market has high domestic production and slightly decreased downstream demand. The port inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [11]. - The plastic market has a structure of strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. 3. Summary by Product Precious Metals - **Silver**: Fed officials' statements have strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is bullish for silver during the interest rate cut cycle. Attention should be paid to gold's influence [1]. - **Gold**: The selection of the new Fed Chairman may cause market disturbances. Gold is not recommended to be over - bullish and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [6]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee is set at 0, indicating extremely tight mine supply. Copper prices are driven by macro - expectations but face high - level volatility risks due to limited consumer acceptance [10]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national heavy - quality soda ash price is stable, with a slight decrease in production and a small increase in inventory. The market is expected to be weak in the short term due to new production capacity [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The overall cost is high, supply is decreasing due to factory shutdowns, and demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [4]. - **Coke**: The coking profit has declined but remains marginally profitable. Supply has decreased due to production restrictions, and demand has decreased seasonally. Prices follow coking coal, and further cuts are less likely [5]. - **Methanol**: Domestic production is at a high level, downstream demand has slightly decreased, and port inventory is decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [11]. - **Plastic**: Supply is abundant, production enterprise inventory is rising, and downstream demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Soybean supply is increasing, and inventory is high. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures contract is expected to oscillate in a certain range and may decline if the South American harvest is good [8]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil exports have improved, and production has decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the market is in a seasonal off - season [9]. - **Pig**: The pig market has strong supply and weak demand, especially in the south. Prices are expected to weaken after a short - term rebound [7]. Others - **Steel**: The steel market has a weak balance between supply and demand, with stable cost support. Steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The funds are loose, which supports the bond market. The short - term bond market should be viewed with a volatile mindset, and the evolution of the expectation of monetary policy easing should be observed [6].

期货研究报告 2025年12月22日 周报 钢材：库存延续去化，基本面仍有韧性 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周市场偏强运行，宏观消息炒作下，价格低位稍显改善，但实际需求差，成交 情况表现一般。目前钢厂减产加之库存压力不大，推涨意愿强烈，短期供需基本面矛盾不大，但受制于信心 不足，价格上行承压。 风险提示：宏观政策、成材需求、钢材出口、钢厂利润、炉料成本支撑等。 | 钢材 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢厂日均铁水产量 | 万吨 | 226.55 | 229.2 | -2.65 | -1.16% | 周度 | | 螺纹钢厂库存 | 万吨 | 139.54 | 140.8 | -1.26 | -0.89% | 周度 | | 螺纹社会库存 | 万吨 | 313 | 338.7 | -25.7 | -7.59% | 周度 | | 热卷钢厂库存 | 万吨 | 83.42 | 8 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the copper market dated December 22, 2025 [1] - The report is titled "Copper: The Game between 'Strong Expectations' and 'Weak Reality'" [2] - The author is Cao Baoqin with investment consulting qualification number Z0012851 and email caobaoqin@nzfco.com [2] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the Shanghai copper market maintained a high - level volatile pattern. On Friday, stimulated by the unexpectedly low US inflation data, the expectation of interest rate cuts rose again, and the copper price rebounded [2] - At the industrial level, the situation is mixed. The supply of copper ore is extremely tight, and the long - term processing fee for copper concentrate in 2026 is set at $0/ton, entering the "zero - processing - fee era". High copper prices significantly suppress downstream demand, domestic social inventory accumulates, the spot of electrolytic copper turns to a discount, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises generally declines [2] - There is a rigid supply constraint due to ore shortage and a loose global liquidity macro - tone, providing strong bottom support for copper prices. However, it is currently the traditional consumption off - season, and high copper prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness, putting pressure on copper prices. In the short term, copper prices will maintain a high - level volatile pattern [2] - This week, the US Q3 GDP data and Q3 core PCE price index will be released. If the data is significantly weaker than expected, it will boost the expectation of interest rate cuts and bring new upward driving force to copper prices [2] Group 3: Factors to Watch - The factors to watch are the US Q3 GDP and PCE price index, and the changes in downstream demand [3] Group 4: Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | This Week | Last Week | Change | Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | 92315 | 93500 | - 1185 | - 1.27% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | - 155 | - 15 | - 140 | - 933.33% | Weekly | | SHFE: Electrolytic copper: Basis | Yuan/ton | - 940 | - 580 | - 360 | - 62.07% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | Yuan/ton | 93410 | 94740 | - 1330 | - 1.40% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | Ton | 160400 | 165900 | - 5500 | - 3.32% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | Ton | 95805 | 89389 | 6416 | 7.18% | Weekly | [3] Group 5: Report Structure and Data Sources - The report includes sections on futures market review, supply situation analysis, demand situation analysis, and inventory situation analysis [5][11][14][20] - Data sources include Boyi Master, iFinD, Steel Union Terminal, and Ningzheng Futures [8][9][10]

期货研究报告 2025年12月22日 周报 国债期货：震荡属性增加 关注因素：1.股债跷跷板逻辑是否依然成立；2.货币宽松预期；3.年底资金面情况 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究报告 1.期货市场回顾 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 报告导读： 市场回顾与展望：年底中央经济工作会议，实施适度宽松的货币政策和更加积极的财政政策，加大逆 周期和跨周期调节力度。在美联储降息及人民币汇率缓慢升级的背景下，货币政策打开了空间，在2026年 即将到来之际，市场对明年年初货币宽松的预期增加，股债跷跷板逻辑有转换为股债双牛逻辑的预期增加。 从年底公布的经济数据来看，经济依然承压，经济基本面依然对债市存在一定支持。年底的中央政治 局会议和中央经济工作会议，定调明年经济工作，强调要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财政 赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，重视解决地方财政困难。要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用 降准降息等多种政策工具。目前来看，在货币宽松预期的支撑下，年底资金面的扰动较为有限，如果资金 利率不再走高，那么债市的利空因素减弱，债市的震荡属性 ...

2025年12月22日 周报 双焦：三轮提降落地，盘面超跌反弹 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周国内焦煤、焦炭市场延续偏弱运行格局，第三轮提降50-55元/吨，预计下周 一执行。受重污染天气影响，部分焦企进一步限产，短期焦炭供应仍呈现收窄状态；下游钢厂检修居多，尚 未开始大范围补库，整体库存略有增长；市场成交仍偏冷清。 展望：整体上，低估值下盘面低位持续反弹，现货端采购积极性有所回升，线上竟拍成交稍有改善。随 着年关将近，冬储力度逐渐加大，焦煤基本面延续边际改善，盘面估值仍有修复空间。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤总库存 | 万吨 | 2127.45 | 2139.45 | -12 | -0.56% | 周度 | | 焦炭总库存 | 万吨 | 900.48 | 903.8 | -3. ...