【短评-黄金】美联储理事米兰表示，为防止未来美国经济 走弱，他支持进一步降息。米兰坚持认为，应当比传统每次25 个基点的降息节奏更快。旧金山联储主席戴利最新表示，美国 经济可能正在经历需求下滑，但关税相关通胀目前看来得到控 制。评：美国政府停摆有望在本周结束，美联储官员对降息持 开放态度，但美联储内部分歧依然存在。美元指数上涨乏力， 贵金属短期震荡偏多，中期或高位震荡。 投资咨询中心 2025年11月11日 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】11月03日-11月09日中国47港铁矿石到港 总量2769.3万吨，环比减少544.8万吨；中国45港铁矿石到港总 量2741.2万吨，环比减少477.2万吨；北方六港铁矿石到港总量 1525.8万吨，环比减少60.1万吨（Mysteel）评：综合来看，铁 矿发运仍处于历史同期高位，铁水产量延续下滑趋势，钢厂盈 利率再度收缩，铁矿石需求继续走弱，港口库存压力继续累 积，供强需弱，预计矿价偏弱运行。操作上建议铁矿2601合约 逢高沽空。 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders in Busan, the contradiction in the Sino-US trade field has been paused, and the economic risk aversion sentiment has slightly eased. The mid-term trends of gold and silver may diverge, with gold potentially oscillating at a high level and silver possibly having a catch-up rally [2][9][26] - The US government is still in a shutdown, making it difficult to obtain the latest economic data. The Fed's disagreement on a December interest rate cut has increased, adding uncertainty to the future interest rate cut rhythm and bringing volatility factors to the precious metal market [3][14] - The offshore RMB exchange rate mainly follows the US dollar index passively. Although the RMB has recently faced increased depreciation pressure, the trend of moderate appreciation remains unchanged. Currently, the exchange rate issue has not had a significant impact on the gold market [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, trade negotiations have slightly eased, and risk aversion sentiment has weakened. The market is currently pricing in two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Gold and silver may rise again under the expectation of consecutive Fed interest rate cuts, but whether their trends will diverge needs continuous attention [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The US government shutdown has a greater-than-expected impact on the US economy, causing long-term damage to the government's efficient operation and slowing down Q4 GDP growth. The tourism and leisure industry is being hit hard [12] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs announced the suspension of multiple export control measures from now until November 10, 2026, and the resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US enterprises and the import of US logs starting from November 10 [12] - Some Fed officials are worried about further interest rate cuts due to high inflation levels and the lack of key price data caused by the government shutdown [14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - Due to the US government shutdown, it is difficult to track the US economy. The preliminary values of the US manufacturing, service, and composite PMIs in October all rebounded from September and were better than expected. The market has fully priced in two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Fed for the rest of the year [15] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Chinese and US leaders held a meeting, and both sides reached a consensus on important economic and trade issues. The EU listed Chinese enterprises in its 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and China urged the EU to stop this action [18] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The US manufacturing, service, and composite PMIs in October all rebounded and were better than expected. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increases in Q1 next year. Crude oil prices rebounded, and copper prices rose due to supply shortages and Fed interest rate cut expectations [19] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate mainly follows the US dollar index passively. The long-term weakening trend of the US dollar supports precious metals. The RMB is in a slow appreciation trend, and its impact on the gold market is limited [23] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the Sino-US trade conflict has been paused, and risk aversion sentiment has eased. After COMEX gold reached a high of 4398, precious metals have corrected significantly. In the mid-term, the trends of gold and silver may diverge, with gold potentially oscillating at a high level and silver possibly having a catch-up rally [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the synthetic rubber industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to remain weak due to supply pressure from domestic raw material production increases and lackluster demand. Tire companies face shipment pressure, with under - performing foreign trade orders. In November, some companies plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance, which will limit the overall capacity utilization rate. Key factors to track include the bottoming point and timing of butadiene prices, the price spread between natural and synthetic rubber, and the performance of natural rubber after the harvest season [2][28] 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The synthetic rubber market showed a weak trend. The 01 contract opened at 11,125 yuan/ton in October, reached a high of 11,285 yuan/ton, a low of 10,175 yuan/ton, and closed at 10,550 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 560 yuan or 5.04% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price - Influencing Factors 2.1 Butadiene Capacity Expansion - From 2021 - 2025, China's butadiene capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with the growth rate first decreasing and then increasing. In 2025, domestic capacity expansion is concentrated, with the capacity growth rate reaching 14.16%, a five - year high. By the end of 2025, China's total butadiene capacity will reach 7.577 million tons/year [5][6] 2.2 High Butadiene Operating Rate and Import Growth - In October, butadiene production was 457,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.49%. From January to October, production was 4.472 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.46%. The capacity utilization rate in October was 66.48%. In September 2025, butadiene imports were 56,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.09%. From January to September, imports were 393,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.8% [7][8][10] 2.3 High Growth in Butadiene Imports - The import volume of butadiene has been growing rapidly, as shown by the data from January - September and September 2025 [10] 2.4 Pressure on Butadiene Prices and Profits - The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples fluctuated slightly this period, with a 1.67% week - on - week decrease. The theoretical production profits of different butadiene production processes decreased. As of October 29, the weekly average profit of the C4 extraction process was 1,265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 578 yuan/ton from the previous period [13] 2.5 Sufficient Synthetic Rubber Capacity Expansion and High Production Growth - New synthetic rubber capacities have been put into production, such as Yulong Petrochemical's 150,000 tons/year nickel/neodymium - based cis - butadiene rubber capacity and Zhejiang Petrochemical's 100,000 - ton device. In September, synthetic rubber production was 774,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.50%. From January to September, production was 6.616 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.20% [15][17] 2.6 High Growth in Imports of Natural and Synthetic Rubber (Including Latex) - In September 2025, China imported 742,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 20.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. From January to September, imports were 6.115 million tons, a 19.2% increase year - on - year [19] 2.7 Tire Production Growth Slows - In September 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 103.487 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. From January to September, production was 899.386 million pieces, a 1.5% increase year - on - year, far lower than the 9.59% growth rate in 2024. The export market growth rate declined, and the replacement market performed poorly [22][25] 2.8 Tire Inventory Needs to be Reduced and Operating Rate Increase is Limited - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53 percentage points. Tire finished - product inventory needs to be reduced [26] 2.9 Weak Supply - Demand Drivers and Synchronous Decline of Raw Materials and Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Due to weak supply - demand drivers, raw materials and cis - butadiene rubber prices declined synchronously, with butadiene having a larger and faster decline [27] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The synthetic rubber market is expected to remain weak due to supply pressure on the raw material side and lack of demand - side support. Key factors to monitor include the bottoming point and timing of butadiene prices, the price spread between natural and synthetic rubber, and the performance of natural rubber after the harvest season [28]

期价反弹空间有限 摘 要： 行情展望： 供应端，养殖端出栏或增加，规模企业增量，散户出 栏较积极，供应端压力或增加。需求端，终端消费有所恢 复，需求好转，但幅度有限，短线难以形成强有力支撑。 综合来看，主流价格区间或维持11.4-12.5 元/公斤 的水平。生猪市场供应端压力或增加，需求无明显增量， 因此价格或继续下行。操作上建议反弹后高空。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏进度；3.政策调控 动态等。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 生猪专题报告 1.生猪价格行情回顾 图 1：生猪期现货价格（元/吨） 2.供应情况分析 请务必阅 ...

基本面分析：供应端，吕梁个别煤矿因搬家倒面减产、临汾 整体产量微增因前期检修、井下过构造等煤矿恢复正常，长治除 前期部分煤矿因井下工作面问题产量有所减少外，其余多维持正 常生产，整体产量较上周无明显变化。下游方面，钢厂利润不 佳，对于高价原料接受程度较低，而焦企在高成本支撑下仍有进 一步提涨计划，但能否落地存在博弈空间。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 双焦期货周度报告 2025年11月10日 国内供应难增 四轮提涨再启 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周期货市场焦煤、焦炭价格偏弱运行。焦煤现 货市场稳中偏强运行。第三轮焦炭上涨于5日落地执行，湿熄上 涨50元/吨，干熄焦上涨55元/吨，不分顶装和捣固；且主流焦企 纷纷于周五开启第四轮提涨，捣鼓涨幅50-55元/吨，顶装涨幅 70-75元/吨，要求10日执行。 一、本周行情回顾 本周期货市场焦煤、焦炭价格偏弱运行。焦煤现货市场稳中偏强运行。第三轮焦炭上涨于5日落地执行，湿熄 上涨50元/吨，干熄焦上涨55元/吨，不分顶装和捣固；且主流焦企纷纷于周五开启第四轮提涨，捣鼓涨幅50-55元 /吨，顶装涨幅70-75元/吨，要求10日执行。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in the off - season of demand, with short - term market fluctuating within a range. The downward price space is limited due to the increasing influence of coking coal and coke. In the future, with the strengthening of production cut expectations, the supply - demand relationship may improve periodically. In the short term, steel prices have weak rebound momentum and may show narrow - range fluctuations [2][26]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - National steel prices declined slightly this week. The weak reality continued to suppress steel prices, and the cooling of macro - favorable expectations led to mediocre market sentiment and a slight drop in market activity. Fortunately, raw material support remained. As of November 7, the average price of 20mm Grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major national cities was 3,225 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton [2][4]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Since 13:01 on November 10, 2025, the additional tariff measures stipulated in the "Announcement of the Tariff Commission of the State Council on Imposing Additional Tariffs on Some Imported Goods Originating from the United States" (Tariff Commission Announcement No. 2 of 2025) will stop being implemented [6]. - Since 13:01 on November 10, 2025, the additional tariff measures on imported goods from the United States will be adjusted. The 24% additional tariff rate on the United States will continue to be suspended for one year, and the 10% additional tariff rate on the United States will be retained [6]. - The "China's Action for Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality" white paper released on the 8th shows that China has achieved remarkable results in the green and low - carbon transformation of energy. The proportion of non - fossil energy consumption increased from 16.0% in 2020 to 19.8% in 2024, with an average annual increase of nearly 1 percentage point [6]. - In October, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.7 trillion yuan, a 0.1% increase. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a 0.8% decrease; imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a 1.4% increase, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth. In the first 10 months, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 37.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Exports were 22.12 trillion yuan, a 6.2% increase; imports were 15.19 trillion yuan, basically the same as the same period last year [6]. - At the end of October, China's foreign exchange reserves were 3.343 trillion US dollars, compared with 3.339 trillion US dollars at the end of September. China's gold reserves at the end of October were reported at 74.09 million ounces (about 2,304.457 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 12th consecutive month of gold purchases [7]. - In the first 10 months, the total sales of the TOP 100 real - estate enterprises were 2,896.71 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 16.3%. In October, the sales of the top 100 real - estate enterprises rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of 3.7%, and the market as a whole continued to bottom out [7]. - In October, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.387 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 7%. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 19.395 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9%. In October, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger car market were 1.4 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The penetration rate of new - energy retail sales in the passenger car market was 58.7% [7]. - In October, the monthly operating rate of major construction machinery products in China was 55%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.1 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 percentage points. Among them, the operating rate of excavators was 55.1% [7]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to a survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials in the past two weeks was 96,400 tons, lower than last week's 104,300 tons. Due to the unrelieved capital pressure and the influence of temperature, the terminal demand shrank, and the procurement behavior was mainly based on demand, resulting in light overall trading [9]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The steel market has entered the off - season of demand. In the short term, the market will mainly fluctuate within a range. With the increasing influence of coking coal and coke, the downward price space is limited. In the future, with the strengthening of production cut expectations, the supply - demand relationship may improve periodically. In the short term, steel prices have weak rebound momentum and may show narrow - range fluctuations. From the perspective of the market, the black series generally closed down, while rebar slightly closed up. Specifically, the main 01 contract of rebar closed at 3,034, up 6 points for the day, down 72 points from last Friday's closing price, with a weekly settlement price of 3,049, down 54 points from last week, and the weekly price center of gravity moved down. The latest position was 1.96 million lots, an increase of 81,000 lots from last week and a decrease of 100,000 lots from the weekly high of 2.06 million lots. With the withdrawal of funds in the last two days of this week, the market showed a state of increasing price with decreasing positions and was slightly stronger than hot - rolled coils. However, it still failed to break through the weekly pressure line of 3,045 on Friday, and the technical signal was still weak. The current fluctuation range is 2,950 - 3,160 [26]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, mainly conduct range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly wait and see; for steel profits, mainly wait and see; for option strategies, adopt wide - straddle consolidation [2][26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities having various trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external policies [1][3][4]. - Some commodities like焦煤,黄金, and白银 have relatively positive outlooks in the short - to - long term, while others such as沥青, rubber, and methanol are expected to be weak [1][8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity **Metals** - **焦煤**: Domestic supply is disrupted, import supplement is limited, and the spot market is stable and slightly strong. The fundamentals are healthy, and the spot is short - term easy to rise and hard to fall, while the futures may oscillate [1]. - **螺纹钢**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, but the cost support from winter storage and potential policy benefits may lead to a low - level wide - range oscillation [3]. - **铁矿石**: After the peak of arrivals, the supply - demand pattern may return to a tight balance. The price may oscillate and strengthen after a rapid decline [4]. - **白银**: Short - term oscillation and long - term bullish due to the changing risk sentiment and the divergence from gold [8]. **Agricultural Products** - **生猪**: Supply pressure is large, terminal demand growth is insufficient, and the price has short - term downward pressure [5]. - **棕榈油**: The production reduction expectation fails, and the supply pressure restricts the price increase. It is expected to adjust weakly in the short term [5]. - **菜粕**: Supply is rigidly short, and the price decline risk is reduced. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **沥青**: Cost support weakens, and the off - peak demand increases the downward pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **橡胶**: Demand lacks substantial benefits, and the trade barriers and inventory issues lead to a weak outlook [9]. - **甲醇**: The port inventory accumulates slightly, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - **纯碱**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. **Others** - **长期国债**: Economic recovery does not interfere with monetary policy, and the bond market has increasing positive factors. It is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term [10]. - **塑料**: Supply is high, demand is off - peak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The remaining period of this year for crude oil is under pressure, and it should be treated with a weakening trend [1]. - Gold may experience high - level fluctuations in the medium - term, and the downward space is limited in the short - term [1]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices are strengthening, and it is expected to have a short - term strong and volatile trend [3]. - Steel prices may have a narrow - range fluctuation after a partial rebound in the short - term [3]. - Coking coal futures are running near the upper edge of the oscillation range, and the actual impact of safety supervision and anti - involution on supply should be focused on [4]. - There is a local rebound expectation for hog prices, but there is still downward pressure in the short - term [4]. - Soybean No. 1 will have a high - level oscillation in the short - term, and Soybean No. 2 will have a strengthening and oscillating trend [5]. - Palm oil will have a bottom adjustment in the short - term [6]. - Rubber should be treated with a weakening and oscillating trend [6]. - PTA should be traded in the short - term as its fundamentals lack significant driving forces [6]. - Treasury bond futures have increasing positive factors and a medium - term oscillating and strengthening trend [7]. - Silver will have a short - term oscillation and a long - term strengthening trend [7]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to have a short - term weakening and oscillating trend [8]. - Soda ash 01 contract is expected to have a short - term oscillating trend [9]. - PVC is expected to have a short - term oscillating trend [10]. Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price for Asia in December. The export volume of some crude oils in November is expected to be slightly lower than that in October. The market is worried about oversupply, and European and American futures prices have fallen [1]. Gold - There are large differences within the Fed on whether to cut interest rates in December. The decline of US stocks and the risk - aversion sentiment are positive for precious metals [1]. Lithium Carbonate - The market supply and demand are booming. The total market inventory has decreased, and the sentiment in the mid - stream has improved. The latest quotation of Australian mines has strengthened again [3]. Rebar - This week, the supply and demand in the steel market are both weak, and the inventory reduction has significantly slowed down. Most steel mills are in losses and are expected to increase maintenance and production reduction [3]. Coking Coal - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal has no obvious change recently. The upward driving force comes from anti - involution and the improvement of Sino - US trade relations. The multi - empty game in the market has intensified [4]. Hog - Hog prices are stable and strong in the north and weakly stable in the south. There is a local rebound expectation under the supply - demand game [4]. Soybean - Brazil's soybean exports in October increased significantly year - on - year. The purchase price of domestic new - season soybeans has increased, but the downstream demand suppresses the price to some extent [5]. Palm Oil - The production of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 5 increased compared with the same period last month. There is an expectation of production reduction in November, and the domestic demand has been significantly boosted recently [6]. Rubber - The inventory has increased this week, and the overall raw material inventory is at a low level. The demand side lacks substantial positive factors, especially the decline of synthetic rubber prices [6]. PTA - The polyester start - up rate is stable. The domestic supply has increased, and the demand side is stable. The balance sheet shows a slight inventory accumulation [6]. Short - term Treasury Bond - The money market interest rates have mostly declined, and the central bank's open - market operations and short - term liquidity injection are positive for the bond market [7]. Silver - The US federal government shutdown has led to the suspension of official inflation data release, causing concerns among some Fed officials about the future monetary policy [7]. Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, the downstream demand is relatively stable, and the port inventory has accumulated slightly [8]. Soda Ash - The production of soda ash has decreased slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly. The start - up of float glass is relatively stable, and the inventory has decreased [9]. PVC - The start - up of domestic PVC production enterprises has increased, and the production is expected to increase. The downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory has increased [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The international oil price continues to decline due to increased US crude oil inventories, and it will remain under pressure for the rest of the year, with the oversupply pressure slightly easing in Q1 next year [1]. - Gold may experience high - level oscillations in the medium term and has limited downside space in the short term, affected by the US government shutdown, Sino - US relations, and the high - level US dollar index [2]. - Synthetic rubber will run weakly due to supply increments and demand - side constraints [4]. - PTA has weak fundamental drivers with clear supply increments, stable demand, and a slightly accumulating balance sheet [4]. - Iron ore prices have limited upside space under the background of loose supply and pressured demand [5]. - Coking coal's upward drive weakens after the macro - level positive factors are realized [5]. - Steel prices are expected to decline slightly in the short term due to approaching off - season and potential supply contractions [6]. - Live hog prices may still decline after a rebound due to large supply pressure and unchanged terminal demand [6]. - Palm oil will run weakly in the short term due to unexpectedly high production in Malaysia and weak domestic demand [7]. - Rapeseed meal prices have a lower risk of decline due to supply shortages, and a callback - buying strategy is recommended [8]. - Silver will oscillate with a bullish bias due to positive economic data in the US and pressure from the rising US dollar index [8]. - Long - term treasury bonds will oscillate with a bullish bias in the medium term due to economic pressure and positive factors from the central bank [9]. - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. - Caustic soda's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - As of October 31, US total crude oil inventories (including strategic reserves) were 830.763 million barrels, an increase of 5.7 million barrels from the previous week; commercial crude inventories were 421.168 million barrels, an increase of 5.2 million barrels; gasoline inventories were 206.009 million barrels, a decrease of 4.73 million barrels [1]. - US daily crude oil production was 13.651 million barrels as of October 31, an increase of 7,000 barrels from the previous week and 151,000 barrels from the same period last year [1]. Gold - The US federal government shutdown has entered its 36th day, breaking the previous record, and may reduce the Q4 economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points [2]. Synthetic Rubber - From January to October 2025, domestic butadiene production was 4.472 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.5%; in October, the production was 457,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.47% [4]. - In October, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.52% and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%, with a capacity utilization rate of 71.39% [4]. PTA - The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated at 14 - 24 days, with POY at 14 - 23 days, FDY at 12 - 22 days, and DTY at 13 - 25 days [4]. Iron Ore - From October 27 to November 2, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 3.3141 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2298 million tons [5]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 37.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%; the daily output of clean coal was 275,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons; and the clean coal inventory was 2.95 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106,000 tons [5]. Steel - As of a certain period, the national building materials social inventory was 638,400 tons, an increase of 2,180 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory was 347,750 tons, a decrease of 8,350 tons; and the production was 397,070 tons, an increase of 1,470 tons [6]. Live Hogs - On November 5, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.19 yuan/kg, a 0.9% increase from the previous day [6]. Palm Oil - In October, Malaysia's crude palm oil production was 2.07 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.31%, reaching an eight - year high [7]. Rapeseed Meal - As of the 44th week of 2025, the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions of China was 514,800 tons, a decrease of 16,600 tons from the previous week [8]. Silver - The US October ISM services PMI rose 2.4 points to 52.4, the new orders index jumped 5.8 points to 56.2, the service payment price index rose to 70, and the employment index rose to 48.2 [8]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - China's October S&P services PMI was 52.6 (previous value 52.9), and the composite PMI was 51.8 (previous value 52.5) [9]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1,261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous day; the weekly production was 757,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%; and the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.702 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01% [9]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,082 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the domestic weekly methanol capacity utilization rate was 86.73%, an increase of 1.09%; the downstream total capacity utilization rate was 75.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%; the port sample inventory was 1.5171 million tons, an increase of 10,600 tons; and the sample enterprise production inventory was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons [10]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 84.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%; the inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 442,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.84% [11].

Key Points by Commodity Gold - US government shutdown continues, but with Sino-US relations easing and the US potentially pausing tariff measures, risk aversion weakens. The rising US dollar index is negative for gold. Gold may experience high-level oscillations in the medium term. Monitor the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1] 纯碱 - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is stable at 1,269 yuan/ton. Weekly production is 757,600 tons, a 2.3% increase. Total inventory is 1.702 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 0.01%. The float glass industry has stable operation and decreasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with some plant shutdowns reducing supply. The 01 contract of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 1,200. It is recommended to wait and see or consider short - term long positions on dips [1] Iron Ore - From October 27th to November 2nd, global iron ore shipments decreased by 174,500 tons to 3.2138 million tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 166,700 tons to 2.7592 million tons. Supply is becoming more abundant in the near - term, while demand is weakening due to production cuts in Tangshan. There is a possibility of production resumption this week. Port inventory is still increasing, and steel mills' inventory has decreased significantly, with a potential for accelerated restocking. Ore prices are expected to decline further, and a short - selling strategy can be considered [3] Rebar - On November 4th, domestic steel prices continued to fall. In November, more steel mills plan to conduct maintenance and production cuts, and environmental restrictions are in place in the north. As the market enters the off - season, supply and demand are both expected to weaken. Raw material prices are under pressure, and steel mills are on the verge of profitability. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4] Manganese Silico - The national average capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 43.28%, a 0.09% increase from last week. Daily output increased by 655 tons to 29,830 tons. The cost of manganese ore may have limited upward potential. Demand for manganese silico is expected to weaken as steel production may decline in the future. Supply is expected to remain high, and inventory pressure persists. The price of manganese silico may not have strong upward momentum in the short term [5] Palm Oil - Last week, the narrowing price gap between soybean oil and palm oil led to increased purchases of palm oil, resulting in a decrease in inventory. As of the end of the 44th week of 2025, domestic palm oil inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 555,000 tons. The market expects an increase in palm oil inventory in Malaysia in October, which is negative for palm oil prices. Palm oil is expected to remain weak in the short term [6] Rapeseed Meal - As of November 1st, the weekly operating rate of domestic rapeseed processing enterprises increased by 0.49 percentage points to 1.47%. Weekly rapeseed crushing volume increased by 2,000 tons to 6,000 tons. There is an expectation of zero processing volume this week. Supply shortages reduce the risk of price decline. It is recommended to take long positions at low prices and monitor Sino - Canadian trade policies [6] Live Pigs - On November 4th, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.2% to 18.02 yuan/kg. The high - priced pork has low acceptance from consumers, and the number of second - fattening pigs has decreased. As enterprises resume normal slaughter, pig prices are expected to decline slowly in the short term. The LH2601 contract of live pigs shows a weak technical pattern, and farmers can consider hedging according to their slaughter plans [7] Short - term Treasury Bonds - On November 5th, the central bank conducted a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month reverse repurchase operation, which is an equal - amount roll - over. The loose money supply is positive for short - term bonds. The bond market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the medium term, but trading is becoming more difficult [7] Silver - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 70.1%. The rising US dollar index due to positive Sino - US trade relations is putting pressure on precious metals. Silver is expected to oscillate in the short term and rise in the long term, with limited downward space [8] Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol production enterprises in Northwest China decreased by 8,500 tons to 23,900 tons. The market price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,082 yuan/ton. Production capacity utilization increased by 1.09 percentage points to 86.73%. Port inventory decreased slightly, while enterprise inventory increased. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with resistance at 2,145. It is recommended to wait for further stabilization [9] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China's drawn polypropylene decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 6,536 yuan/ton. Capacity utilization increased by 0.61 percentage points to 78.62%. Commercial inventory decreased by 51,300 tons to 874,000 tons. Supply pressure has eased slightly, and downstream orders have improved slightly. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 6,570. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [10] Crude Oil - As of the week ending October 31, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 6.52 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. China and Russia agreed to cooperate in the standardization of the oil and gas industry. Crude oil prices are expected to remain under pressure for the rest of the year and may ease slightly in the first quarter of next year [11] PX - This week, domestic PTA production increased by 44,800 tons to 1.4503 million tons. Capacity utilization increased by 2.40 percentage points to 78.38%. Social inventory decreased by 5,700 tons to 3.1356 million tons. The restart of previously shut - down PTA plants has increased supply, and the market is expected to have a slight inventory build - up. PX prices are under pressure, and the overall fundamentals of PTA are weak [11] Rubber - In Thailand, cup - lump prices decreased, while latex prices increased. From January to September, global natural rubber production increased by 2.3%, while consumption decreased by 1.5%. Indonesia's exports to China increased significantly. China's rubber inventory is at a low level, and raw material prices are expected to be firm. However, tire enterprises are facing shipment pressure, and some plan to reduce production in November. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with limited downward space [12]