Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In January, the expected resumption of production and winter storage replenishment by steel mills will bring marginal demand growth. After the year - end shipping rush of overseas mines, there is an expected seasonal decline in January, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The medium - to - long - term outlook for iron ore is bearish based on the mine capacity release cycle [1]. - The real fundamentals of asphalt remain relatively weak. Potential upward drivers in the market come from the raw material side. If the supply of Venezuelan oil continues to tighten, there is room for further rebound in asphalt spot and futures prices [2]. - Short - term coke prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Short - term hog prices will continue to rebound and adjust. Palm oil prices are weak, and short - term palm oil futures in Dalian are expected to open lower and then fluctuate [4][5][6]. - The main contract of soybean meal is suppressed by the expectation of loose supply and demand and runs in the range of 2,730 - 2,790 yuan/ton. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term. Methanol and soda ash are expected to fluctuate in the short term [7][9][10][11]. - For crude oil, short - term trading is advisable. Synthetic rubber will mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Plastic prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [12][13]. - Silver has limited short - term upward space, and it is advisable to wait and see. Gold is expected to remain in a high - level shock in the medium term. The bond market is expected to fluctuate upward [14][15]. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - Mysteel's global iron ore shipping volume was 36.771 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.126 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 30.596 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.448 million tons [1]. Asphalt - The spot settlement price of heavy - traffic asphalt varies by region. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) and a year - on - year decrease of 276,000 tons (12.1%) [2]. Coke - On January 4, the coke market sentiment was still weak. The price of coking coal continued to decline. Steel mills want to lower the fifth - round purchase price, while some coke enterprises demand a price increase [4]. Rebar - At the end of December, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 7.21 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 270,000 tons (3.6%) [4]. Hog - As of January 2, the average slaughter weight of hogs was 123.35 kg, a decrease of 0.2 kg. The weekly slaughter rate was 36.85%, a decrease of 0.37% [5]. Palm Oil - From December 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 7.39% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.13% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 8.07% month - on - month [6]. Soybean Meal - As of January 4, 2026, the physical inventory of soybean meal in national feed enterprises was 9.4 days, a decrease of 0.05 days from the previous period and an increase of 1.21 days from the same period last year [7]. Copper - A Canadian copper miner's mine in Chile will go on strike starting January 2. The expected production during the strike is only about 30% of the normal level [9]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol is 91.24%, a week - on - week increase of 0.71% [10]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - quality soda ash is 1,228.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.5 yuan/ton. The weekly production of soda ash is 697,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.08% [11]. Crude Oil - The US launched an attack on Venezuela over the weekend. Venezuela's current crude oil production is around 1 million barrels per day, accounting for 0.8% of global production, and its export volume is about 600,000 barrels per day [12]. Synthetic Rubber - In January 2026, the expected production of Chinese butadiene rubber is 153,700 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons from December 2025. As of December 31, 2025, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 33,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period [12]. Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6,488 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 45 yuan/ton. The weekly production of LLDPE is 315,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% [13]. Silver - The next Fed chairman is expected to be announced in January. Short - term silver is affected by the safe - haven demand of gold, but the upward space is limited [14]. Gold - Geopolitical factors are favorable for gold, but the rebound height may be limited. Gold is expected to remain in a high - level shock in the medium term [14]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - On January 4, most money market interest rates declined. The end - of - year liquidity disturbance is over, and the short - term capital supply has eased, which is favorable for the bond market [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Fed chairperson selection may be announced soon, which will determine market expectations for next year's interest rate cuts. Tight liquidity in the US at the end of the year is negative for gold, which is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2]. - The Fed's December meeting minutes suggest a possible pause in rate - cuts, but the easing cycle continues. The market expects a pause in January, so silver may reach a phased top and over - optimism should be avoided [2]. - Macro - policies will maintain a "double - loose" tone in 2026, which boosts market sentiment and supports steel prices. However, the steel market is in a weak balance, and short - term steel prices may oscillate narrowly [4]. - Iron ore supply is relatively stable, and demand is gradually stabilizing. With port inventories accumulating and strong upstream - downstream gaming, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - The manganese - silicon market has a loose supply - demand pattern, with upstream inventory pressure capping prices. In the medium term, prices will oscillate around cost [5]. - The overall supply of pigs is abundant, and short - term pig prices will continue to rebound and adjust [5]. - Malaysian palm oil exports to the US are strong. Market expectations of reduced production and import profit inversion support palm oil prices, which are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [6]. - The spot price of soybean meal has a clear bottom support, while the main contract is suppressed by supply - demand expectations. The 05 contract may oscillate strongly in the short term [7]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation as they seek a new balance between "real - world pressure" and "long - term narratives" [8]. - Oil prices are affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors and should be treated with an oscillatory view [9]. - PTA supply has not fully recovered, and there is no inventory - building pressure in January. A long - position strategy at low levels is recommended [9]. - Natural rubber prices are expected to be long - biased at low levels in the short term, considering factors such as production and demand [11]. - Long - term government bonds should be viewed with an oscillatory mindset, and attention should be paid to monetary policy and the relationship between the stock and bond markets [11]. - Methanol supply and demand remain weak, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillatory, with prices expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - PVC prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short term due to factors such as supply, demand, and cost [14]. 3. Summary by Product Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fed chairperson news and year - end liquidity affect it. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2]. - **Silver**: Fed meeting minutes suggest a possible pause in rate - cuts. It may reach a phased top, and over - optimism should be avoided [2]. Metals - **Steel**: Macro - policies support prices, but the market is in a weak balance, and short - term prices will oscillate narrowly [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is stable, demand is stabilizing, and prices will oscillate in the short term [4]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: Supply - demand is loose, and prices will oscillate around cost in the medium term [5]. - **Copper**: Prices will maintain a high - level oscillation as they balance short - term and long - term factors [8]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Overall supply is abundant, and short - term prices will rebound and adjust [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Exports to the US are strong, and prices will oscillate strongly in the short term [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Spot has bottom support, and the 05 contract may oscillate strongly in the short term [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by supply - demand and geopolitics, prices should be treated with an oscillatory view [9]. - **PTA**: Supply has not fully recovered, and a long - position strategy at low levels is recommended [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: Prices are expected to be long - biased at low levels in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices will oscillate in the short term [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is weakly stable and oscillatory, with short - term price oscillation expected [13]. - **PVC**: Prices will oscillate slightly downward in the short term due to supply, demand, and cost factors [14]. Bonds - **Long - term Government Bonds**: An oscillatory mindset is recommended, and attention should be paid to monetary policy and market relationships [11].

研究员 姓名：师秀明 今 日 早 评 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 重点品种： 【短评-PTA】低加工费环境下PTA检修力度较大，虹港、海 伦、汉邦、YS及台化等部分装置处于长期停车，YS海南1#完成 技改后也尚未复产，近期中泰石化短期停车，YS宁波2#及英力 士1#按计划重启，而YS新材料短暂降负后恢复正常。评：近端 检修较多，12月平衡表去库，而PTA供应尚未回归,1月也没有累 库压力, 较此前预期好转；中长期随着产能集中投放周期结 束，PTA加工费预计将逐步改善；另外明年二季度PX检修较多， 远端预期较好。低位偏多思路。 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-18元/吨；山西准一级焦 平 ...

期货研究报告 2025年12月29日 周报 贵金属期货：高位震荡 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 报告导读： 市场回顾与展望：美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。 整体CPI同比上涨2.7%，低于预期的3.1%。随着通胀数据的走弱，市场对明年美联储降息的空间预期更高。 目前就明年美联储降息幅度，市场存在诸多预测和观点，对贵金属形成一定扰动。美联储主席鲍威尔在新 闻发布会上表示，货币政策无预设路径，将逐次会议依据数据决策。通胀仍偏高，但非关税驱动的核心通 胀已显著改善，若无新关税，商品通胀预计2026年第一季度见顶。经济前景稳健，政府停摆结束支撑2026 年增长预期。 12月24日，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国12月20日当周首次申请失业救济人数降至21.4万人，预 期和前值为22.4万人。这一数字已回落至2021年11月的水平，表明劳动力市场仍未见明显压力。12月份面 临鲍威尔结束任期，关于下一任美联储主席人员也是市场持续关注的焦点，并且特朗普宣布近期将公布美 联储主席人选，美联储主席的备选人员对贵金属 ...

Report Summary - **Report Date**: December 29, 2025 [1] - **Report Author**: Shi Xiuming [2] - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The US sanctions on Venezuela have led to a slowdown in oil shipping operations, with daily crude oil exports decreasing by about 200,000 barrels (a 25% decline) last week, accounting for only 0.7% of OPEC's production and having a small impact on the global supply. On Friday, international oil prices fell by over 2%, influenced by market expectations of a possible Ukraine peace agreement. Although OPEC+ has suspended production increases in Q1, non -减产联盟 countries like Brazil and Canada are expected to increase production, keeping supply sufficient. Even if the Russia - Ukraine conflict is resolved, Russia's oil supply will still be adjusted according to OPEC+ goals. The market should be treated with a view of weakening volatility [2]. - **Factors to Watch**: Geopolitics and weekly crude oil data [3] Weekly Fundamental Data Changes 1. Spot and Futures Market Review - **SC Crude Oil Futures**: The price is 441.80 yuan/barrel, with a weekly increase of 15.20 yuan and a change rate of 3.56% [4] - **Oman Crude Oil Spot**: The price is 62.66 dollars/barrel, with a weekly increase of 1.90 dollars and a change rate of 3.13% [4] - **Brent Crude Oil Futures**: The price is 62.28 dollars/barrel, with a weekly increase of 1.73 dollars and a change rate of 2.86% [4] - **WTI Crude Oil Futures**: The price is 56.90 dollars/barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.35 dollars and a change rate of 0.62% [4] 2. Supply Situation Analysis - **US Crude Oil Production**: The production is 13,842 thousand barrels per day, with a weekly decrease of 20 thousand barrels and a change rate of - 0.14% [4] 3. Crude Oil Inventory - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: The inventory is 424,417 thousand barrels, with no change from the previous week [4] 4. Demand Situation Analysis - Not provided with specific data analysis in the text 5. Cost - Profit Analysis - **Comprehensive Refinery Profit**: The profit is 663 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan and a change rate of 8.16% [4]

高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周生猪期现货同步震荡走强，期货主力LH2603从11345元/吨涨至11680元/吨， 现货外三元均价从11.43元/公斤升至11.85元/公斤，核心驱动是养殖端缩量挺价、终端节日备货与二育补栏 共振，短期偏强但中期仍受供应压力制约。主产区：河南、山东、河北11.8-12.0元/公斤；东北 11.3-11.5 元/公斤，养殖端惜售情绪增强。主销区：华东11.7-12.0元/公斤领涨，华南11.3-11.6 元/公斤偏稳，西南 11.9-12.2 元/公斤坚挺，终端商超促销与腌腊需求支撑采购。利润与成本：猪粮比约 4.98:1，接近盈亏平衡 线。 供应端：缩量挺价，出栏节奏放缓。头部企业月度计划出栏完成度高，月末出栏节奏放缓；散户 "卖 大留小"，标猪供应趋紧。12月样本企业计划出栏2772万头，同比增4.64%，但实际周度出栏量环比下降约 3%。二育栏舍利用率偏高，春节前集中出栏压力仍存，但短期补栏提振标猪需求。需求端：节日备货 + 天 气驱动，屠宰开工高位南方腌腊延迟叠加北方降温，终端消 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market shows a pattern where port prices are relatively strong while inland prices are weak The supply of methanol is abundant, and port inventories are rising from a high level It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate weakly in the near - term, with the 05 contract facing resistance at the 2215 level [1][2] 3. Summary of Each Section Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the port methanol market continued to be strong, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2120 - 2200 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2090 - 2130 yuan/ton Inland methanol prices were weak, with prices in Ordos, the main production area, ranging from 1870 - 1900 yuan/ton and downstream Dongying's receiving price from 2160 - 2200 yuan/ton [1] - The overall profit of methanol enterprises is poor The domestic methanol operating rate is expected to remain high, and seasonal gas restrictions in the Middle East are gradually taking effect The on - the - way cargo volume from Iran is still abundant, and imports in December are likely to remain at a high level The downstream demand for methanol is expected to be relatively stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2] This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The basis in Jiangsu decreased by 268% week - on - week, inland methanol sample enterprise inventories increased by 3.3%, port methanol inventories increased by 15.89%, weekly production increased by 0.79%, coal - to - methanol profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 18.70%, coking - oven - gas - to - methanol profit in North China decreased by 13.02%, natural - gas - to - methanol profit in Southwest China remained unchanged, downstream acetic acid operating rate increased by 1.41%, and downstream olefin production operating rate decreased by 0.35% [3] Spot and Futures Market Review - Last week, the port methanol market continued to be strong, with Jiangsu prices fluctuating between 2120 - 2200 yuan/ton [6] Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol plants was 91.24%, a 0.8% week - on - week increase The average weekly profit of coal - to - methanol in Northwest Inner Mongolia decreased by 18.70%, the average weekly profit of coking - oven - gas - to - methanol in Hebei decreased by 13.02%, and the average weekly profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in Southwest China remained unchanged [7] Demand Situation Analysis - As of December 25, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 69.13%, a 0.97 - percentage - point decrease from last week The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid increased due to some plants' restarts and load adjustments [9] Inventory Analysis - As of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 141.25 tons, a 19.37 - ton week - on - week increase and a 47.40% year - on - year increase [11] Position Analysis - As of December 26, the long - position volume of the top 20 members in methanol futures decreased by 21,011 to 649,496, and the short - position volume decreased by 20,164 to 796,088 The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The copper prices of both domestic and foreign markets achieved a historic breakthrough in the intense game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". The LME copper price reached a high point at the beginning of the week, and the main contract of Shanghai copper hit a record high of 98,800 yuan/ton during Friday's trading session. The "strong expectation" completely overwhelmed the "weak reality" this week. While the futures price reached a new high, the spot market sent a clear signal of weakness. The long - term bullish logic remains unchanged, but be vigilant against the short - term risk of high - level correction [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review and Outlook - Macroscopically, the loose expectation continues, and the continuous weakening of the US dollar provides support for copper prices. On the supply side, the strike at Chilean mines brings the risk of production cuts. The production disturbances at the mine end resonate with the joint production cut plan of CSPT at the smelting end, strengthening the narrative of supply shortage. On the demand side, the extremely high spot price has seriously suppressed actual consumption. Downstream procurement is extremely cautious, the discount of spot electrolytic copper continues to widen, and the increase in social inventory is significant. The sharp rise in copper prices this week is mainly driven by high market sentiment. Once the sentiment fades, copper prices may fluctuate sharply [2]. Attention Factors - Pay attention to the Sino - US PMI data for December, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, and changes in downstream demand [3]. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Indicator | Unit | This Week's Latest | Last Week | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | yuan/ton | 97800 | 92315 | 5485 | 5.94% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | yuan/ton | - 350 | - 155 | - 195 | - 125.81% | Weekly | | SHFE: Electrolytic copper: Basis | yuan/ton | - 980 | - 940 | - 40 | - 4.26% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | yuan/ton | 98800 | 93410 | 5390 | 5.77% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | tons | 157025 | 160400 | - 3375 | - 2.10% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | tons | 111703 | 95805 | 15898 | 16.59% | Weekly | [3] 1. Futures Market Review - The content mainly includes the price trend charts of Shanghai copper, London copper, and the Shanghai - London ratio, with data sources from Boyi Master and Nanjing Securities Futures [5][6][8]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - It involves charts such as the forward spot price of copper concentrate (measured by TC price), the average spot processing price of blister copper, copper concentrate port inventory, domestic electrolytic copper production, the price change trend of electrolytic copper and scrap copper, and the refined - scrap price difference in major markets. The data sources are from Steel Union Terminal and Nanjing Securities Futures [13][14][16]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - The content contains charts such as the premium/discount of 1 electrolytic copper (≥99.95%) in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rate, refined copper rod trading volume, Yangshan copper bonded area premium, and electrolytic copper warehouse receipt bill of lading premium (pyrometallurgy). The data sources are from iFinD and Steel Union Terminal [21][22][27]. 4. Inventory Situation Analysis - It includes charts of electrolytic copper bonded area inventory and the inventory of three major futures exchanges, with data sources from Steel Union Terminal and Nanjing Securities Futures [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soda ash market is weak, with prices declining gradually. The supply has decreased due to enterprise maintenance and short - stops of equipment. The downstream demand is expected to be moderately weak, and the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain at a high level. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 1230 level. Key factors to watch include soda ash production start - ups, new capacity launch progress, and inventory changes [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market has a weak trend, with prices gradually declining and the center of gravity moving downwards. Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 71.18 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96 million tons or 1.32%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 81.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.09%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 143.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.08 million tons or 4.06%. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises decreased to over 10 days, a decrease of over 2 days. Currently, the profits of soda ash enterprises are poor. The domestic soda ash production start - up this week is expected to remain stable at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to be moderately weak, with the expected production of downstream float glass slightly decreasing and that of photovoltaic glass remaining stable temporarily. With the supply - demand of soda ash being loose, the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain at a high level in the near future [1] This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes Spot and Futures Market Review - Last week, the soda ash market in East China was stable with a weak trend, prices adjusted within a narrow range, the futures price fluctuated steadily, and the basis in the East China market was relatively stable [5] Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 25, the domestic soda ash production was 71.18 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96 million tons or 1.32%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 32.63 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48 million tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 38.55 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48 million tons. The theoretical profit of China's dual - process soda ash (dual - ton) was - 20.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50%. The theoretical profit of China's ammonia - soda process soda ash was - 57.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13.94% [7] Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of December 25, the domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,480 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 3.67%. The weekly capacity utilization rate was 67.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.79%. In December, the supply - demand gap showed an expanding trend, mainly because the industry demand is expected to shrink significantly near the end of the year, the terminal has gradually shut down, component purchases have decreased, and the consumption of photovoltaic glass has correspondingly decreased. The supply - side decline is relatively small. Considering the current industry inventory of more than 30 days, there may be unexpected production cuts in December. - **Float Glass**: As of December 25, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 73.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The average capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 77.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 percentage points. There are expectations of three production lines in East China and one production line in South China to stop production this week, and the production may decrease slightly [10] Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of December 25, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 143.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.08 million tons or 4.06%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 73.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.79 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 70.30 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.87 million tons [12] Position Analysis - As of December 26, the long - position volume held by the top 20 members of the soda ash futures was 732,834, a decrease of 2,423, and the short - position volume held was 884,148, a decrease of 18,226. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The palm oil futures are expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend. Short - term operation is recommended to focus on low - buying transactions. Key factors to watch include Malaysian palm oil production and export data, the repair change of the soybean - palm oil price difference, and the implementation progress of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the national average spot price of palm oil was 8,450 - 8,550 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 120 - 150 yuan/ton. Port quotes strengthened with futures, and transactions were mainly for rigid demand. The basis fluctuated between - 56 and - 18 yuan/ton, with futures slightly stronger than spot, increasing traders' hedging willingness and keeping downstream stocking at a steady pace [1] Supply Situation - Malaysian palm oil production has decreased as expected, and domestic arrivals have slowed down. From December 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month (SPPOMA), and the rainy - season production decline has materialized. From December 1 - 25, exports increased by 43.6% month - on - month (shipping agencies), inventory growth slowed down, and BMD palm oil led the increase, boosting the domestic market. Indonesia's B50 policy is advancing, and biodiesel demand supports the CPO price [1] Demand Situation - Holiday stocking and substitution effects provide rigid support. New Year's Day stocking has started, and food processing enterprises are making small - batch replenishments, with palm oil transactions increasing by 8 - 10% month - on - month. The catering consumption is recovering, and palm oil is substituting for soybean oil in the mid - and low - end markets, enhancing demand resilience [1] Cost - Profit Analysis - The table shows the palm oil shipping schedule quotes and import profit calculations for 2025.12.22. For example, for the January shipping schedule, the CNF in South China is 1055, the forward exchange rate is 7.0032, the import cost is 8858 yuan/ton, the market price is 8558 yuan/ton, and the profit against the market is - 300 yuan/ton [2]