钢材期货周度报告 2025年04月28日 宏观预期反复 震荡思路对待 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周钢材价格弱势调整，全国螺纹钢均价环比下 跌15元/吨。本周本周建筑钢材价格偏强运行。截至4月25日，全 国主要城市20mm三级抗震螺纹钢均价3327元/吨，周环比上涨47 元/吨。周五夜盘期钢大幅上涨，27日多数钢厂推涨，市场拉涨 情绪浓厚，现货市场迎来反弹。商家反馈，市场推涨下终端采购 偏谨慎，投机需求表现一般。 基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于品种盈亏 的影响，产能释放力度继续增强，铁水产量持续增加，品种产量 也有所上升。需求端：在"买涨不买跌"心态以及节前备货的带 动下，各品种成交呈现了明显上升的态势。成本端：由于铁矿石 价格维持稳定，废钢价格小幅上涨，焦炭价格维持稳定，生产成 本支撑力度继续增强。 投资策略：单边：区间操作 跨期套利：观望为主 卷螺 价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权策略：宽跨式盘整 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyan ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The crude oil market faces many uncertainties. With short - term inventory pressure being relatively low, factors such as ongoing US - China tariff issues, progressing US - Iran negotiations, and the OPEC+ production policy meeting on May 5th will affect the market. Short - term trading is recommended [2][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - SC2506 had a slight rebound. It opened at 489, reached a high of 506, a low of 482, and closed at 496, with a weekly increase of 5.4 or 1.10% [3]. Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis - **OPEC**: In March, OPEC's overall daily crude oil production was 26.78 million barrels, a decrease of 78,000 barrels per day from February. Iraq, UAE production decreased, while Iran and Kazakhstan production increased. OPEC+ agreed to increase oil supply by 411,000 barrels per day in May, three times the original plan, and will gradually cancel the 2.2 million - barrel - per - day production cut by 2026. However, six countries need to cut production by 378,000 barrels per day in May according to the compensation plan. There are disputes among members regarding production quota compliance, and OPEC+ plans to accelerate production increase, which adds pressure to crude oil supply [5][6][8]. - **Russia**: In 2024, Russia's GDP grew by 3.9%, and its crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In March 2025, production decreased to 8.963 million barrels per day. Russia's 2025 - 2028 oil and gas export revenue forecasts have changed compared to previous expectations. There are talks about a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement, but Russia has doubts about some details [10][11]. - **US**: As of the week ending April 18, US daily crude oil production was 13.46 million barrels, a decrease of 2,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 360,000 barrels from the same period last year. The four - week average daily production was 13.49 million barrels, 3% higher than the same period last year. EIA predicts that US crude oil production will peak at 14 million barrels per day in 2027 and then decline. Global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered [12][13]. - **Americas**: OPEC and IEA have both lowered their forecasts for non - OPEC and non - OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2025 and 2026 [20]. - **Inventory**: In December 2024, OECD oil and crude product inventories decreased by 51.35 million barrels from the previous month. As of the week ending April 18, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 4.565 million barrels according to API data, while EIA data showed an increase of 244,000 barrels. Product inventories decreased, indicating a recovery in demand [21]. - **Consumption**: OPEC, IEA, and EIA have all lowered their global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Refinery processing fees are low, and refinery operating rates are at a low level [25][27][29]. - **Geopolitics**: The US has imposed new sanctions on Iran and threatened bombing. Iran's crude oil production and exports are affected. The US and Iran held the third - round indirect negotiations in Muscat, Oman, and Iran is cautiously optimistic about the nuclear - issue negotiations [34][36]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy The short - term inventory pressure of crude oil is not significant, but the market still faces many uncertainties. Short - term trading is recommended [37].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】据央视新闻，当地时间4月24日获悉，美国 联邦储备委员会理事克里斯托弗·沃勒当日警告称，美国总统 特朗普引发的贸易战可能很快会导致失业率上升。评：美联储 官员提示经济下行风险。隔夜美联储官员密集发生，降息预期 增加，美股有所反弹。经济下行压力对黄金依然存在支撑，黄 金下方空间亦有限，黄金中期高位震荡略偏多思路为宜。关注 俄乌冲突谈判及美联储降息预期。 【短评-原油】据央视新闻消息，当地时间4月24日，美国 联邦储备委员会理事克里斯托弗·沃勒警告称，美国总统特朗 普引发的贸易战可能很快会导致失业率上升，沃勒强调，一旦 劳动力市场出现严重恶化，他预计很快会有更多降息；特朗普 指出，乌克兰和俄罗斯都有实现和平的意愿，双方都必须加入 谈判；美国国务院：国务院政策规划局局长迈克尔·安东与特 使维特科夫将于周六前往阿曼，与伊朗举行技术会谈；中国外 交部明确辟谣中美双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更 谈不上达成协议。评：原油短期库存压力不大，前期行情节奏 围绕OPEC+增产，补偿性减产协议，哈萨克斯坦言论影响。后期 市场面临关税、美伊及俄乌停火谈判，欧佩克+产量等多重因素 的结 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The overall fundamental contradictions of iron ore are not significant. With the easing of overseas trade frictions and market expectations for stimulus policies, iron ore is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to take short - term long positions with a light position [2]. - Economic downward pressure still supports gold. The downside space of gold is limited, and it is advisable to maintain a slightly bullish view on gold's medium - term high - level fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [2]. - The supply of coking coal remains relatively stable, and demand is high. The market expects coke prices to continue rising, but terminal inventories are low. Short - term coking coal prices are expected to fluctuate [4]. - The cost of steel provides some support, but the lack of sustained demand restricts the rebound of steel prices. With external uncertainties, steel prices may fluctuate upward in the short term [4]. - The supply and demand of live pigs are in a continuous game. Short - term prices are adjusted, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips. In the medium - to - long term, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. - The decline of the external market has stopped and rebounded, and the increase in purchases supports the palm oil market. However, the downstream demand is weak, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. High - selling and low - buying strategies are recommended [5]. - The auction of soybeans by protein factories is active, and the reduction of market surplus grains boosts market confidence. However, auctions may curb rapid price increases in the short term. Soybean prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [6]. - The marginal loosening of the capital side is beneficial to the bond market, but the market still has a wait - and - see attitude towards the fundamentals. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [8]. - Trump's remarks on reducing tariffs on Chinese goods boost risk assets, but the fundamentals of silver are bearish. Before the Fed cuts interest rates, silver is unlikely to have a trending market [8]. - Concerns about the implementation of compensatory production cuts by OPEC + have led to a decline in crude oil prices. Short - term trading is recommended [9]. - The demand for PTA is under pressure, and it follows the fluctuations of crude oil. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - The international raw material prices of natural rubber have fallen, and the tire start - up rate has declined. The market support is weak, and it is expected to continue the weak consolidation trend [10]. - The cost of methanol is stable, and the domestic methanol start - up is expected to remain high. The downstream demand is decreasing, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11][12]. - The downstream demand for soda ash is tepid, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - The supply of caustic soda is abundant, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13]. Summaries by Variety Iron Ore - From April 14 - 20, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,218.8 million tons, a decrease of 26.3 million tons from the previous period. The inventory is slightly lower than the average level since the beginning of the year [2]. Gold - On April 23, local time, the Fed's "Beige Book" showed that economic activity has hardly changed, but there is widespread uncertainty in international trade policies, and the prospects in multiple regions have significantly deteriorated [2]. Coking Coal - This week, the operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants in the country was 63.01%, an increase of 1.11% from the previous period; the daily average output was 53.44 million tons, a decrease of 1.34 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 271.33 million tons, a decrease of 2.58 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 181.68 million tons, an increase of 0.35 million tons [4]. Rebar - On April 23, the domestic steel market fluctuated strongly. The ex - factory price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 50 to 2,990 yuan/ton. One steel mill raised the ex - factory price of construction steel by 20 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3,323 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. Live Pigs - On April 23, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 118.47, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 119.43. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.99 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4% from the previous day; the price of eggs was 8.34 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1% from the previous day [5]. Palm Oil - From July 1, 2024, to April 20, 2025, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 period were 2.3 million tons, compared with 2.87 million tons in the same period of the previous year. China and India's demand for palm oil may increase due to its continuous discount compared with soybean oil [5]. Soybeans - As of the end of the 16th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 4.251 million tons, an increase of 625,000 tons from the previous week. The coastal inventory was 3.768 million tons, an increase of 584,000 tons from the previous week [6]. Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties declined collectively. The overnight variety declined by 8.3 BP to 1.626%; the 7 - day variety declined by 2.6 BP to 1.644%; the 14 - day variety declined by 2.8 BP to 1.772%; the 1 - month variety declined by 0.5 BP to 1.749% [7][8]. Silver - Trump said that the current tariffs on Chinese goods in the US are too high and are expected to be significantly reduced. He also said that he has no intention of firing the Fed Chairman [8]. Crude Oil - The EIA report showed that in the week ending April 18, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US was 244,000 barrels, the gasoline inventory was - 4.476 million barrels, the domestic crude oil production decreased by 200 barrels to 23.46 million barrels per day, and the EIA crude oil production implied demand data was 19.01 million barrels per day. Kazakhstan will prioritize national interests in determining oil production levels [9]. PTA - In the week of April 22, the PTA load decreased to 75.4%; the polyester load increased slightly to 93.8%, and the increase in the bottle - chip load made up for the reduction in the production of filament and staple fiber [9]. Rubber - Thailand is gradually transitioning to the tapping season, and production is expected to increase significantly in mid - May. Vietnam's production areas are waiting for precipitation and may start tapping at the end of April. In Hainan, raw material prices have fallen, and private factories have resumed purchasing rubber, with an increase in glue output. In March, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.56, a slight decrease of 3.1% from the previous month, basically the same as the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative output of rubber tires in China was 283 million, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.4%. The total export volume of Chinese rubber tires was 2.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [10]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2,418 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton. The methanol operating rate was 83.37%, a weekly decrease of 0.49%. A 250,000 - ton/year methanol plant of Yankuang Guojiao was under maintenance for about a week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate was 72.26%, a weekly decrease of 2.25%. The sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 463,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 122,400 tons; the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 309,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 260 tons; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 302,700 tons, a weekly increase of 28,300 tons [11]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash in the country was 1,413 yuan/ton, showing a slow downward trend. The soda ash operating rate was 88.9%, an increase of 1%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.7113 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The operating rate of float glass was 75.42%, unchanged from the previous week. The average price of float glass in the country was 1,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises in the country was 65.078 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19% [12]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The prices of liquid caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong both decreased, and the chlor - alkali profit was 302 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 82.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. The chlor - alkali plant of Anhui Huasu is expected to resume production on April 26. The weekly inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 420,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 10.83%. The weekly operating rate of downstream alumina was 80%, a decrease of 2%; the weekly operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 78.2%, a decrease of 5.39% [13].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评—黄金】IMF首席经济学家古睿斯，美元的走软具 有相当广泛的基础。评：近期美元的持续下行，使得市场对黄 金的看涨动能增加，但是黄金在美国关税政策带来的经济下行 及通胀上升的预期已经交易的较为充分，滞胀逻辑交易较为充 分，不可过分看多，黄金短期上方空间有限，美联储降息前注 意把控节奏，关注俄乌冲突等地缘因素。 投资咨询中心 2025年04月23日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 姓名：丛燕飞 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015666 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 2020 年 11月18 【短评-原油】IMF将2025年全 ...

【短评-黄金】美国股市遭遇重挫，三大指数全线下跌，道 琼斯工业平均指数下跌971.82点，跌幅达2.48%，报38,170.41 点；标普500指数下跌2.36%，收于5,158.20点；纳斯达克综合 指数更是下挫2.55%，收报15,870.90点，创下自今年2月以来最 大单日跌幅。评：VIX指数再度上升到30以上，避险情绪对黄金 依然存在一定支撑，但是不建议追涨。黄金仍然具有一定的上 涨动力，黄金上方空间有限，主要是关注美联储降息信息，不 可过分看多。 投资咨询中心 2025年04月22日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1412元/吨，下降19元 /吨；纯碱开工率 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】周六进行的美伊谈判顺利结束，特朗普政府 官员表示，美国和伊朗在直接及间接商讨中取得了十分良好的 进展，且双方同意下周再度会面，伊朗外长同样表示，在罗马 进行的相关会谈中存在相对积极的氛围，这促使在可能达成的 协议的原则和目标方面取得了进展。伊朗外交部长还称下周三 将在阿曼恢复专家级别的核谈判，将开启专家层面谈判进程以 敲定相关细节。评：多个产油国向OPEC+提交补偿性减产计划， 原油再次回到了供需相对平衡态。操作上，观望或短多交易。 关注伊核谈判进展及美国计划与中国展开贸易谈判的可能。 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1431元/吨，下降14.5 元/吨；纯碱开工率90.09%，个别企业负荷波动；纯碱厂家总库 存171.13万吨，环比上升1.08%；浮法玻璃开工率75.42%，周度 持平；全国浮法玻璃均价1276元/吨，环比上日持平；全国浮法 玻璃样本企业总库存6507.8万重箱，环比下降0.19%。评：浮法 玻璃开工较稳，沙河市场交投一般，整体不温不火，下游采购 谨慎，低价成交为主。国内纯碱市场走势一般，装置运行淡 稳，下游需求一般，下月检修企业增加，供应有望下降 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】04月07日-04月13日中国47港铁矿到港总 量2617.9万吨，环比增加258.8万吨；中国45港铁矿到港总量 2525.5万吨，环比增加336.8万吨；北方六港铁矿到港总量 1026.9万吨，环比减少58.5万吨。评：现实需求仍有支撑，不 过钢厂利润有所下滑，后续钢厂复产进度或放缓。总体来看， 铁矿基本面矛盾不大，港口库存持续去化，但市场预期后续钢 材出口会受到抑制，贸易摩擦仍有反复风险，关注国内4月底政 治局会议情况，预计铁矿震荡为主。建议铁矿2509合约空单止 盈离场。 【短评-螺纹钢】据Mysteel，截至4月17日当周，螺纹产量 229.22万吨，较上周减少3.15万吨，降幅1.36%；厂库200.40万 吨，较上周减少14.26万吨，降幅6.64%；社库532.76万吨，较 上周减少30.34万吨，降幅5.39%；表需273.82万吨，较上周增 加21.14万吨，增幅8.37%。评：螺纹钢表需连续第九周增加， 厂库、产量由增转降，社库连续第六周减少。自身供需情况继 续改善，但上下游产业链矛盾相对突出，煤钢之争在传统旺季 上演。螺纹短期大概率弱势震荡为 ...

【短评-黄金】北京时间今日凌晨，鲍威尔就美国总统特朗 普的关税政策影响发出了强烈警告。鲍威尔在演讲中表示，关 税政策潜在影响的不确定性正在升高，可以预见到"通胀将上 升且经济增长将放缓"，将使美联储陷入两难境地。评：鲍威 尔讲话，给市场泼冷水，美国通胀上升和经济下行压力增加， 避险情绪进一步助推黄金走高。贵金属震荡偏多，但是白银的 基本面依然偏弱，白银或跟随黄金波动，注意把控节奏。 【短评-螺纹钢】4月16日，国内钢材市场偏弱运行，唐山 迁安普方坯出厂含税价跌20报2940元/吨。6家钢厂下调建筑钢 材出厂价格20-30元/吨。全国31个主要城市20mm三级抗震螺纹 钢均价3285元/吨，较上个交易日下跌12元/吨。评：国民经济 开局良好，投资、消费增长加快，体现宏观政策继续发力显 效。房地产销售边际改善，但投资降幅有所扩大，仍在调整阶 段。当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，外贸发展面临一定压力。根 据Mysteel调研数据，四月下旬前钢材出口或缓慢下滑，五月起 钢材出口下滑速度可能加快。总之，由于钢材需求表现平淡， 实际成交呈低价出货，短期钢价或震荡偏弱运行。 投资咨询中心 2025年04月17日 研究员 姓名：师 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】加拿大财政部表示，加拿大将对从美国进口 的用于制造业、加工以及食品和饮料包装领域的商品，给予为 期六个月的临时关税豁免。评：关税进入后续谈判阶段，目前 各方均有所缓解，市场关注美联储后续动作，来捕捉降息线 索。短期恐慌情绪减弱，贵金属避险属性开始显现，贵金属震 荡偏多，但是白银的基本面依然偏弱，白银或跟随黄金波动。 关注即将公布美国零售数据和美联储官员讲话。 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1448元/吨，缓慢下跌 趋势；纯碱开工率90.4%，开工高位；纯碱厂家总库存169.3万 吨，环比下降0.49%；浮法玻璃开工率75.42%，周度持平；全国 浮法玻璃均价1276元/吨，环比上日持平；全国浮法玻璃样本企 业总库存6520.3万重箱，环比下降0.84%。评：浮法玻璃开工较 稳，华北市场较为稳定，整体需求不温不火，下游刚需采购， 华东市场淡稳为主，需求未有好转。国内纯碱市场走势一般， 成交不温不火，产量稳定，暂无新增检修计划，下游低价适量 补库，采购偏谨慎。预计纯碱09合约短期震荡运行，上方压力 1365一线，建议观望或反弹短线做空。 投资咨询中心 2025年04月 ...