今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】据央视新闻最新消息，当地时间22日，美国 财政部宣布将对俄罗斯两家大型石油公司实施制裁，包括俄罗 斯石油公司和卢克石油公司；欧盟轮值主席国丹麦宣布，欧盟 各成员国已批准对俄罗斯实施第19轮制裁，制裁措施包括禁止 进口俄罗斯液化天然气等；美国总统特朗普表示，他认为与俄 罗斯总统普京会面"不合适"，所以取消了和普京在布达佩斯 的会面；美国能源信息署数据显示，截止10月17日当周，包括 战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量8.31388亿桶，比前一周下降 14.2万桶；美国商业原油库存量4.22824亿桶，比前一周下降 96.1万桶；美国汽油库存总量2.16679亿桶，比前一周下降 214.6万桶；截止10月17日当周，美国原油日均产量1362.9万 桶，比前周日均产量减少7000桶，比去年同期日均产量增加 12.9万桶。评：供需仍压制油价。消息面上，特普会取消，美 国加大对俄制裁推动原油大涨，此外，消息上，传递中美贸易 谈判偏乐观，也支撑短期油价。短期低位偏多思路。 【短评-螺纹钢】10月22日，国内钢材市场涨跌互现，唐山 迁安松汀普方坯出厂含税涨10报2940元/吨。2家钢厂 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply and demand still suppress oil prices, but short - term support exists due to the possible end of the US government's "shutdown crisis". Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [1] - The risk of tariff and geopolitical disturbances weakens, so does the risk - aversion sentiment. Precious metals are in a volatile correction, and gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term. Focus on the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1] - PTA's supply - demand outlook is weak due to the expected decline in polyester load during the traditional off - season, and the cost - end is also under pressure. Pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [3] - Overseas weather improvement weakens the cost support for rubber, and consumption data is poor. However, the short - term strategy is to go long at a low level. Follow - up negotiation progress should be monitored [4] - Iron ore has an expected increase in supply and weak terminal demand, with a risk of fundamental weakening. It is expected to oscillate, and interval operation is recommended [5] - For silicon iron, short - term factors support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and there is still downward pressure on the price [6] - Steel prices may oscillate with limited up - and - down space due to the weak demand and the expected increase in production cuts [6][7] - The short - term futures price of live pigs stops falling and rebounds, maintaining a bottom - oscillating rebound pattern [7] - The fundamental guidance for palm oil is unclear, and the domestic price is under pressure. Short - term low - buying and high - selling is recommended [8] - Rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term due to the substitution of soybean meal [8] - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9] - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9][10] - The L2601 contract of plastic is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10] - The short - term bond is bearish due to the slightly tightened capital. Treasury futures have more bullish factors but may still oscillate in the medium term [11] - Silver follows gold's decline, but the decline is limited. Attention should be paid to the economic data disturbances after the US government's normal operation and grasp the long - buying opportunities [11] Group 3: Summaries by Product Crude Oil - US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased in the week ending October 17, 2025. The four - week average export volume reached 3.82 million barrels per day, the highest since May 2023 [1] Gold - European leaders support negotiating for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which weakens the risk - aversion sentiment [1] PTA - This week's domestic PTA output was 1.3983 million tons, with a decrease compared to last week and the same period last year. The average cost, profit, and processing fee all decreased [3] Rubber - Thai raw material prices are under pressure, and China's rubber tire export volume increased in the first three quarters of 2025. The inventory in Qingdao Port is slightly decreasing [4] Iron Ore - From October 13 - 19, the arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased. Terminal demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [5] Silicon Iron - The national capacity utilization rate and daily output of silicon iron decreased slightly. The cost has strong support, demand has toughness, but supply pressure is increasing [6] Rebar - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remained flat, while other indicators such as capacity utilization and profitability decreased slightly. Steel demand is weak, but production cuts may relieve the supply - demand contradiction [6][7] Live Pigs - On October 21, the average pork price decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day. The price of live pigs has rebounded slightly recently [7] Palm Oil - From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased. The domestic inventory increased due to concentrated arrivals [8] Rapeseed Meal - As of the 42nd week, the inventory of imported rapeseed meal in East and South China decreased. The substitution of soybean meal suppresses the consumption of rapeseed meal [8] Methanol - The signing volume of northwest methanol producers decreased, the price in Jiangsu decreased, and the capacity utilization rate and inventory showed different trends. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [9] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is stable and weak, the output decreased, and the inventory increased. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate [9][10] Plastic - The price of LLDPE in North China decreased, the output decreased, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment [10] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Most Shibor short - term varieties increased, indicating a slightly tightened capital, which is bearish for short - term bonds [11] Silver - Trump's planned visit to China weakens the risk - aversion sentiment. Silver follows gold's decline, but the decline is limited due to the expected October interest rate cut [11]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】国家统计局：9月份，规上工业原油产量 1777万吨，同比增长4.1%，增速比8月份加快1.7个百分点；日 均产量59.2万吨。1-9月份，规上工业原油产量16263万吨，同 比增长1.7%。欧洲理事会周一宣布，欧盟成员国能源部长当天 通过了在2028年1月1日前逐步停止进口俄罗斯石油和天然气的 提案；央视报道，当地时间10月20日，美国参议院第11次就政 府拨款法案进行投票表决，仍未获得通过，因此美国政府自10 月1日开始的"停摆"继续。评：美国政府"停摆"持续，施压 原油市场。整体上，供需和地缘均指向压制油价，后续需中美 贸易谈判进展。 【短评-焦炭】独立焦企本周吨焦平均利润-13元/吨，产能 利用率为74.24%减0.94%，焦炭日均产量65.29 万吨减0.83万 吨。评：供应端，成本不断抬升下焦化利润再次转负，抑制焦 企整体开工，此外部分企业受环保及检修等影响，开工下滑， 整体供应收紧明显。需求端，铁水产量延续小幅下滑，但仍在 240万吨以上，刚需支撑仍存。总体上，随着旺季步入尾声，焦 炭供需均有所转弱，但铁水相对坚挺，预计焦炭后市价格暂稳 运行。 投资咨询中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - With the supporting effects of secondary fattening entry and frozen product warehousing gradually emerging, the decline of live pig prices has stopped in recent days. However, the strength of these two supports is limited and difficult to drive a significant price rebound. Before the end of October, live pig prices will not see significant adjustments and will mainly show "bottom - range fluctuations" with a relatively narrow price fluctuation range [2][21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply Situation Analysis - The report presents the monthly trend chart of the inventory of reproductive sows in sample enterprises (in ten thousand heads), the weekly trend chart of the average slaughter weight of national sample commercial pigs (in kilograms), and the inventory structure of commercial pigs by weight (%) [5][7][11] 3.2 Demand Situation Analysis - The report shows the operating rate (%) of key slaughtering enterprises and the frozen product storage capacity rate (%) of key slaughtering enterprises [13][16] 3.3 Cost - Profit Analysis - The report includes the self - breeding and self - raising farming profit (yuan per head) and the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening (yuan per head) [18][20] 3.4 Market Outlook - With the supporting effects of secondary fattening entry and frozen product warehousing gradually emerging, the decline of live pig prices has stopped in recent days. But these two supports are not strong enough to drive a significant price rebound. Before the end of October, live pig prices will mainly show "bottom - range fluctuations" with a narrow price range [2][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Due to the combination of the stock - bond seesaw and loose liquidity counter - cyclical adjustments, bond futures operations are more difficult, and the bond market shows obvious oscillation characteristics. The future trend of the bond market is still mainly influenced by these two factors [2]. - The economic data released recently indicates that the downward pressure on the economy is still large, which provides long - term support for the bond market. The government's counter - cyclical adjustment measures and the central bank's loose monetary policy are double - edged swords for the bond market. Loose liquidity is beneficial to the bond market, especially the short - end bond market [2]. - Geopolitical risks give way to economic downward risks, and the bond market may see more favorable factors driven by risk - aversion factors. The overall bond market remains oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the impact of the stock - bond seesaw on the bond market. If the upward momentum of the stock market weakens, the bond market may enter an upward channel again [3]. - Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the bond market may be in a pattern of oscillating with a slight upward trend [31]. Summary by Directory 1. Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the bond market into a continuous downward trend, but on the weekly level, it shows a high - level oscillatory trend. On the daily level, it is at the neckline position of the long - term high - level oscillation and has the need for an oscillatory rebound. The combination of abundant liquidity logic and the stock - bond seesaw logic makes bond market operations more difficult [9]. 2. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - In September, China's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.3% year - on - year. The core CPI rose 1% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month. PPI remained flat month - on - month and fell 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months [13]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments more effectively, expand domestic demand, and create a first - class industrial ecosystem [13][15]. - In the first three quarters of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value was 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The import and export growth rate accelerated quarter by quarter. In September, the total import and export value was 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%, the highest monthly growth rate this year [15]. - In September, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.64% month - on - month. From January to September, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year [15]. - From January to September 2025, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371,535 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. In September, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.07% month - on - month [15]. - China's social consumer goods retail in September was 4,197.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 36,587.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [16]. 3. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamental - In September, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.64% month - on - month. China's social consumer goods retail in September was 4,197.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The overall economic data shows that the endogenous driving force of the economy is strengthening, and the downward pressure on the economy has weakened. If counter - cyclical adjustments continue to increase, the economic fundamentals will be bearish for the bond market in the long run [17]. 3.2 Policy Aspect - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to ensure abundant liquidity, support consumption and investment, and maintain the stability of the financial market and the RMB exchange rate. In August, the M1 - M2 scissors gap narrowed, indicating an increase in economic activities. The growth rate of social financing stock slightly increased, and the monthly new social financing mainly relied on government bond issuance [19]. 3.3 Capital Aspect - Since July 25, DR007 has been continuously declining, and the cost of funds has decreased. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain abundant liquidity. The Fed's potential interest rate cuts in the second half of the year may provide more room for domestic monetary policy easing, but the adjustment of monetary policy still depends on domestic demand. The probability of an unexpectedly loose monetary policy is low, but it remains an option if necessary [22]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this July and formulate a detailed plan for the use of national subsidy funds. The special treasury bond funds for equipment renewal this year amount to 200 billion yuan, with the first batch of about 173 billion yuan allocated to about 7,500 projects in 16 fields. The issuance of special bonds has accelerated recently, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [24]. 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond cost - performance ratio has broken through the short - term oscillatory range and declined, indicating that the market pays more attention to the stock market and the risk appetite has increased. Although the stock - bond cost - performance ratio has slightly decreased recently, it is still in a high - level range. Whether it will continue to decline needs continuous observation. Short - term bonds are more affected by the capital aspect, while long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [27]. 4. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The international environment for China's A - shares has become extremely complex, and short - term fluctuations may increase, but the long - term upward trend is generally recognized. The impact of the stock - bond seesaw on the bond market has become more complex. Under the background of continuous Fed interest rate cuts, the combined effect of the stock - bond seesaw and liquidity logic makes bond market operations more difficult. In the fourth quarter, the bond market may be in a pattern of oscillating with a slight upward trend [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices fluctuated and declined. In the first half of the week, the market sentiment was weak due to large inventory pressure and unmet demand expectations. In the second half of the week, the market sentiment slightly recovered, and the price decline was small. As of October 17, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton [2][4]. - In the future, the steel market may present a pattern of weak supply and demand. Steel prices still face significant upward pressure and may fluctuate with limited upside and downside potential [26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated and declined this week. In the first half of the week, the market sentiment was weak because of large inventory pressure and unmet demand expectations, but the raw material side provided some support. In the second half of the week, the market sentiment slightly recovered, and the price decline was small. As of October 17, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton [2][4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - The Chinese government emphasizes counter - cyclical regulation, expanding domestic demand, and improving the industrial ecosystem [6]. - China and the United States will hold a new round of economic and trade consultations [6]. - In the first three quarters of this year, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Exports were 19.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%; imports were 13.66 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Exports increased by 8.4% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.5% year - on - year [6]. - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan; M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year; the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [6]. - In September, China's PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year and remained flat month - on - month. CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month [7]. - The World Steel Association expects global steel demand in 2025 to be flat compared to 2024, reaching about 1.75 billion tons. The decline in China's steel demand is expected to slow down, and steel demand in developing economies such as India, Vietnam, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia will grow strongly. European steel demand will experience a long - awaited recovery [7]. - On October 17, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% new tariff on imported medium and heavy trucks and parts starting from November 1. He also said that a 10% tariff will be imposed on imported passenger cars [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials in the past two weeks was 97,800 tons, lower than last week's 99,900 tons. The overall market trading was weak, terminal purchasing willingness was low, and the spot trading price was getting closer to the low level [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The current daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces is still above 2.4 million tons. Steel mills are generally in a state of small profit or loss. It is expected that the supply side will continue to shrink, which is conducive to alleviating the supply - demand contradiction. The steel market may present a pattern of weak supply and demand in the future, and steel prices may fluctuate with limited upside and downside potential [26]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for steel profits, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for option strategies, use a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][26].

双焦期货周度报告 2025年10月20日 需求相对坚挺 提涨意愿再起 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周国内炼焦煤、焦炭市场价格呈稳定局面，心 态方面波动较大。周五主流焦企提涨焦炭价格第二轮涨价，幅度 50-55元/吨，预计自10月20日起执行，加之近期铁水产量维持高 位，下游对炼焦煤上涨有一定利好支撑。 基本面分析：炼焦煤整体供应无明显变化，除个别矿点因搬 家倒面、安全检查等原因致产量仍未恢复，其余煤矿基本维持正 常生产节奏。需求方面，近期焦炭供应保持稳定，多数焦企维持 正常生产，厂内库存未现明显累积，整体呈现即产即销态势。近 期钢材价格及成材需求情况震荡偏弱，后续原料端价格是否可以 持续偏强尚需关注宏观及钢厂利润等因素的反馈。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 电话：400-822-1758 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 双焦期货周报 一、本周行情回顾 本周国内炼焦 ...

关税扰动减弱，贵金属回调压力加大 摘 要： 美国政府停摆叠加国际政治动荡，避险情绪推动黄金不断创出 新高。但是在黄金创出 4392 高点之后，短期调整的压力加大。目 前美国政府依然处于停摆过程中，关于美国经济的数据无法进一步 获得，但是从美联储官员的表述来看，市场基本对 10 月份继续降 息已经有所定价，后续市场更多关注的是地缘避险因素，及美国政 府的内部分歧和博弈情况。 美东时间 10 月 1 日 0 时，美国联邦政府因资金用尽，时隔近 七年再度"停摆"。数十万联邦雇员将被迫无薪休假，部分公共服 务或暂停、延迟，经济数据发布将受到一定影响。但是从美联储官 员讲话及相关机构数据来看，市场基本对 10 月降息完全定价。年 内降息 2 次，甚至明年继续降息目前依然是市场主流。美国总统特 朗普在最新的采访中继续释放缓和信号，暗示大门仍敞开着。特朗 普政府正在低调地放松多项关税政策，近几周来已将数十种产品从 其所谓的"对等关税"中豁免，并在各国与美国达成贸易协议时提 出愿意将更多产品排除在关税之外。关税之战略有缓和，后续进展 情况，依然需要持续观察。 离岸人民币汇率主要被动跟随美元指数波动，节假日过后，由 于国内消费 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of palm oil is under adjustment pressure and is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to buy on dips [2][3][14] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Palm Oil Price Market Review - The report presents the 24 - degree palm oil average price trend chart but no related text analysis [5] 2. Supply Situation Analysis - The report shows the China palm oil import data chart but no related text analysis [7] 3. Demand Situation Analysis - The report shows the palm oil transaction average price statistics chart but no related text analysis [9] 4. Cost - Profit Analysis - The report shows the palm oil import cost and profit chart but no related text analysis [12] 5. Market Outlook - The near - term fundamentals of palm oil feature "increasing supply and decreasing demand", with rising production and inventory pressure remaining. The implementation of Indonesia's B50 plan is still far off, having limited impact on the palm oil supply pattern in the short term and failing to provide substantial support to the current market. The palm oil market has entered a stage of "all bullish factors exhausted", with short - term price adjustment pressure and expected to mainly move in a volatile manner. It is recommended to buy on dips [3][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and geopolitical factors both point to downward pressure on oil prices. The supply side shows that OPEC+ is continuing to increase oil production, Russian supply remains at a high level, and US shale oil production is also at a relatively high level. The demand side indicates that the global demand growth rate is slowing down, and the international energy market may experience an oversupply situation in 2026. Geopolitically, the first - stage cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel has been reached, and there are discussions about ending the Ukraine conflict. However, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is crucial. If more consensus can be reached, market risk - aversion sentiment will cool down, and oil prices may get short - term support [2][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil showed a volatile and weak trend. The SC2512 contract opened at 458 for the week, reached a high of 459, a low of 433, and closed at 435, with a weekly decline of 28 or 6.23% [3] Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 OPEC: OPEC+ Maintains the Stance of Increasing Production - In September, OPEC's daily crude oil production was 28.44 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 524,000 barrels, with Saudi Arabia's daily production increasing by 248,000 barrels. OPEC+ members' daily crude oil production was 43.05 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 630,000 barrels. The global daily oil supply in September reached 108 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 760,000 barrels, with OPEC+ countries' production increasing by 1 million barrels. It is expected that the global daily oil supply will increase by 3 million barrels this year to 106.1 million barrels per day and by 2.4 million barrels next year. Non - OPEC+ countries' production is expected to increase by 1.6 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels respectively in the next two years [5] - On October 1st, the 62nd JMMC meeting was held. Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Kazakhstan, Oman, and Russia updated their compensation production - cut plans from September 2025 to June 2026. From September to December 2025, the planned compensation production cuts are 232,000, 203,000, 266,000, and 303,000 barrels per day respectively. The 63rd JMMC meeting will be held on November 30th. On October 5th, eight voluntarily - production - cutting OPEC+ countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the next meeting of these eight countries will be held on November 2nd [6] 2.2 Russia: Gradually Implementing Production Cuts, Pay Attention to the Evolution of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In 2025, it is expected to be between 515 million and 520 million tons. President Putin said on October 16th that the 2025 production is expected to be 5.1 billion tons, about 1% less than last year, but the overall supply remains at a high level. In August 2025, Russia's crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 barrels per day, and the remaining production capacity was 120,000 barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 barrels per day. Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia has the potential to increase oil production [7] - Russia's crude oil exports are at a high level. As of the four - week period ending on October 12th, the average daily shipment from Russian ports was 3.74 million barrels, the highest since June 2023. IEA data shows that in September, Russia's crude oil exports increased by 370,000 barrels per day to 5.1 million barrels per day [7] 2.3 US: Stable Production - As of the week ending on October 10th, the US daily crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels, an increase of 7,000 barrels from the previous week and 136,000 barrels from the same period last year. As of the week ending on October 17th, the number of active oil - drilling rigs in the US was 418, the same as the previous week and 64 less than the same period last year [8] - The EIA estimates that from the third quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, the average daily global oil inventory build - up will exceed 2 million barrels. It is predicted that the low oil prices at the beginning of 2026 will lead to a decrease in the supply of OPEC+ and some non - OPEC producers, and inventory adjustments will be made later in 2026. The average Brent crude oil price next year is predicted to be $51 per barrel [8] 2.4 American Production Increase May Dominate Future Supply Growth - The IEA expects that the daily crude oil production of non - OPEC+ countries will increase by 1.6 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels respectively this year and next year, with significant increases in the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina. According to the current production agreement, OPEC+'s daily crude oil production will increase by 1.4 million barrels in 2025 and a further 1.2 million barrels per day next year. The IEA believes that next year's global daily oil supply will be about 4 million barrels higher than demand [14] 2.5 Inventory: Stable - As of July 2025, the OECD commercial inventory was 2.761 billion barrels, an increase of 2.4 million barrels from the previous month. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 66.5 million barrels, 128.5 million barrels less than the average of the past five years, and 208.6 million barrels less than the average from 2015 - 2019 [14] - As of the week ending on October 10th, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 831.53 million barrels, an increase of 4.284 million barrels from the previous week. The US commercial crude oil inventory was 423.785 million barrels, an increase of 3.524 million barrels from the previous week. The US gasoline inventory was 218.826 million barrels, a decrease of 268,000 barrels from the previous week. API data shows that as of the week ending on October 10th, the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels, the gasoline inventory increased by 2.99 million barrels, and the distillate inventory decreased by 4.79 million barrels [15] 2.6 Consumption: Marginally Weak Demand - OPEC estimates that the global daily oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels this year and 1.38 million barrels next year. The global economic growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 are maintained at 3% and 3.1% respectively [21] - The IEA estimates that in the third quarter of 2025, the global daily oil demand increased by 750,000 barrels year - on - year due to the recovery of demand in the petrochemical raw material industry, recovering from the 420,000 - barrel - per - day level in the second quarter affected by tariffs. However, in the remaining part of 2025 and 2026, the global daily oil consumption will remain low, with an expected annual increase of about 700,000 barrels per day, far lower than the historical average due to the more severe macro - economic environment and the electrification trend in the transportation sector [21] - The US refinery's crude oil processing volume is 15.13 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17 million barrels per day, and the refinery's operating rate is 85.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% [21] 2.7 Refined Oil Processing Fees Strengthen Slightly - The average refining profit of Shandong local refineries this period is 225.77 yuan per ton, a decrease of 23.42 yuan per ton from the previous period. The average refining profit of major refineries this period is 547.82 yuan per ton, a decrease of 71.31 yuan per ton from the previous period [23] 2.8 Refinery Operating Rates at a Low Level - As of the week ending on October 9th, 2025, the US refinery's crude oil processing volume was 16.476 million barrels per day, an increase of 52,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the refinery's operating rate was 93.00%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous week [26] - This week, the average operating load of major domestic refineries in China is 81.23%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points from the previous week. The average operating load of the atmospheric and vacuum distillation units of Shandong local refineries is 50.28%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week [26] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The supply side shows that OPEC+ is continuing to increase oil production, Russian supply remains at a high level, and US shale oil production is also at a relatively high level. The demand side indicates that the global demand growth rate is slowing down, and the international energy market may experience an oversupply situation in 2026. Geopolitically, the first - stage cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel has been reached, and there are discussions about ending the Ukraine conflict. Overall, both supply and geopolitical factors point to downward pressure on oil prices. The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is crucial. If more consensus can be reached, market risk - aversion sentiment will cool down, and oil prices may get short - term support [35]