Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations and outlooks for multiple commodities, including predictions on price trends and trading suggestions [1][3][4]. Summaries by Commodity 1. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national heavy - quality soda ash mainstream price is 1353 yuan/ton, with recent weak oscillations. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 1370 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [1]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol starts at a high level and continues to rise. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at 2485 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **PX**: PX supply and demand turns marginally weaker. It is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by increased domestic supply and decreased demand [12]. 2. Metals - **Gold**: The US economic downward pressure increases, but the global economy recovers. The dollar index has weak rebound momentum, which is bullish for gold. However, the probability of gold exceeding the previous high is low, and it will remain in a high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish mid - term trend [1]. - **Silver**: Trump criticizes the Fed again, increasing market risk appetite. The dollar index has weak rebound momentum, and silver oscillates bullishly [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment volume rebounds. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate following the sector [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is fair, but the supply - demand relationship may become looser in the long - term. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [4]. - **Rebar**: High cost and low demand compete, and the steel price may oscillate in a narrow range in the short - term [4]. 3. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The market focuses on OPEC+ production cuts and US sanctions on Russia. The international crude oil price is under pressure and is expected to be weak in the short - term [11]. 4. Agricultural Products - **Pork**: The short - term market maintains a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to operate within a range in the short - term or long - term layout of LH2511 long positions [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The domestic spot fundamentals are weak, but there is limited downward space in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see if it can break through the previous high of 9106 yuan/ton [8]. 5. Others - **Plastic**: LLDPE production enterprises' inventory decreases, and the price decline slows down. The L2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 7390 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The economic downward pressure increases, and liquidity eases, which is bullish for the short - end bond market. The stock - bond seesaw is the main logic [9]. - **Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The policy is positive, but the stock market recovers, and the bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw [10]. - **Rubber**: The overall supply - demand of rubber is expected to be tight throughout the year. The rubber price is expected to continue to rebound in the short - term [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Group 2: Report Core Views - Due to weak US employment data and strong Fed rate - cut signals, market risk appetite increases, the dollar index drops, and precious metals oscillate and stabilize. Silver is bullish in oscillation [1]. - The US - India tariff negotiation continues, the dollar index weakens, which is positive for gold. However, the probability of gold exceeding the previous high is low, and it will be in a mid - term high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish trend [3]. - The coke market is still in a state of tight supply and demand after five rounds of price hikes. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - The money market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds, but the stock market rebounds, which is negative for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic remains the main logic [3]. - The steel market returns to fundamentals. Due to high - temperature and rainy weather, demand is weak. Steel mills have good profits, and inventory reduction is under pressure. Steel prices may adjust narrowly in the short - term [4]. - Iron ore supply and demand are stable, which strongly supports the price. It is expected to be strong in short - term oscillation [4]. - The pig market has a strong supply and weak demand. Prices are expected to decline more than rise in the short - term [5]. - The palm oil market has a weak fundamental, but there is little room for a sharp downward movement in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The rapeseed meal price will stabilize after a decline and continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. - The short - fiber market has a weak fundamental, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - OPEC+ maintains a production - increase stance, but the production increase is far from the target. The short - term trend is weak [7]. - The overall supply and demand of rubber are expected to be tight throughout the year. It will oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9][10]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. - The LLDPE market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Group 3: Summaries by Product Precious Metals - **Silver**: US employment data is weak, Fed officials signal rate cuts, the dollar index drops, and silver is bullish in oscillation [1]. - **Gold**: US - India tariff negotiation affects the dollar index, and gold is in mid - term high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish trend [3]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains production increase, but the actual increase is far from the target. The short - term trend is weak [7]. Industrial Metals - **Coke**: After five rounds of price hikes, the market is in tight supply - demand, and it will oscillate in the short - term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand are stable, and it is expected to be strong in short - term oscillation [4]. - **Steel**: The market returns to fundamentals, demand is weak, and prices may adjust narrowly in the short - term [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: Supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline more than rise in the short - term [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental is weak, and there is little short - term downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price will stabilize after a decline and continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. - **LLDPE**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The money market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds, but the stock market rebounds, which is negative for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic remains the main logic [3]. - **Rubber**: The overall supply and demand are expected to be tight throughout the year. It will oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. - **Short - fiber**: The fundamental is weak, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply recovery and the increase in Mongolian coal imports still need time to materialize, and the de - stocking cycle of upstream coal mines continues. After the market sentiment fades, the futures price returns to a reasonable range. In the short term, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate and adjust [32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The price of coking coal in the domestic market continued its volatile and upward trend this week, but the increase narrowed, mostly in the range of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The price of coke increased continuously, with the fourth price increase implemented on the 28th, and the cumulative increase reached 200 - 220 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - The central government emphasizes continued and timely efforts in macro - policies in the second half of the year, focusing on expanding domestic demand, boosting consumption, and promoting economic circulation. The decision to hold the 20th Fourth Plenary Session in October to study the 15th Five - Year Plan is made. A new round of China - US economic and trade talks was held, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of certain tariffs for 90 days [6]. - From January to June 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 343.65 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 13.7 times year - on - year. In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [6][7]. - In June 2025, China's steel exports were 9.678 million tons, a decrease of 8.5% from the previous month, and the export price decreased by 1.6%. From January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%, and the export price decreased by 10.2%. In June, steel imports were 470,000 tons, a decrease of 2.4% from the previous month, and the import price decreased by 2.1%. From January to June, the cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%, and the import price increased by 2.2% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Affected by factors such as over - production inspections, completion of monthly production tasks, and underground conditions in some areas this week, the daily output of raw coal decreased slightly. However, the overall demand for coking coal was relatively strong, and coal mines significantly reduced their inventories [2]. - Demand side: The molten iron output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The fourth price increase of coke was implemented, and mainstream coking enterprises proposed a fifth price increase, but mainstream steel mills have not responded yet. Coking and steel enterprises maintained a rigid demand for raw coal procurement under high production loads and stable inventory consumption. Future changes in the operation of coal mines, coking, and steel enterprises need to be monitored [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Market outlook: The futures market is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. - Investment strategies: For single - sided trading, focus on range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coking profit trading, also adopt a wait - and - see approach [32].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw remains the main logic for the bond market recently. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market's rebound. The economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened. The keynote for the second half of the year is an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, but the incremental policies exceeding market expectations may be limited [2][4][30] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market to effectively break below the 60 - day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management. China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a decline of 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, also down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability. The China - US economic and trade talks reached a consensus on the extension of tariffs. The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed in June, and multiple departments planned key work for the second half of the year [14][16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic data showed certain resilience in the second quarter, with GDP growth exceeding expectations. However, the economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be strengthened [17] 3.2 Policy Aspect - In June 2025, the social financing scale stock increased year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed, indicating that real - sector enterprises are more optimistic about the economic outlook [19] 3.3 Capital Aspect - The bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly, and the capital is already relatively loose. The probability of significant monetary easing such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is low [21] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The issuance of local bonds and special bonds has accelerated recently. The issuance of special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has basically been realized, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [24] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term shock range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market, and the market risk appetite has increased [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The themes for the second half of the year are anti - involution and maintaining stable economic recovery. The start of infrastructure projects increases the market's expectation of further fiscal and infrastructure efforts. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market, and investors should pay attention to the subsequent trend of the stock market [30]

非农大幅低于预期，贵金属震荡偏多 摘 要： 上周前半段在美国7月未降息及美国经济依然具有韧性的预期 下，美元指数大幅反弹，并施压贵金属。但是上周五的非农数据大 幅低于预期和失业率再次反弹，在两者共同作用下，美元指数大幅 走弱，并带动贵金属走强，其中黄金的走强大于白银，数据公布后 市场基本对 9 月降息完全定价，后续市场将围绕美国经济数据和降 息预期的强弱展开。黄金的走势需要关注美元指数的强弱，白银的 走势需要关注降息的强弱和美国经济数据，黄金、白银或走分化行 情，白银整体要强于黄金。 美国 7 月非农就业人数仅仅增加 7.3 万人，创 9 个月最低，远 不及预期的 11 万人。此外，前两个月的数据合计大幅下修 25.8 万。 7 月失业率小幅升至 4.2%。该数据公布后，特朗普再度"逼宫"美 联储主席鲍威尔，称现在必须大幅降低利率。若不降息，美联储理 事会应接手掌管，采取每个人都知道必须采取的行动。并下令解雇 劳工统计局局长。从前期公布的通胀数据来看，美国 6 月个人消费 支出即 PCE 物价指数同比上涨 2.6%，高于市场预期的 2.5%。5 月数 据经修正后为上涨 2.4%。核心 PCE 物价指数同比上涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy suggestion is to stay on the sidelines [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Since April 2025, OPEC+ has shifted from a production - cut cycle to an increase cycle, with a cumulative production increase space of 1.919 million barrels per day from April to August. However, the actual production increase is far from the target. It's recommended to focus on the actual production implementation of OPEC+ members [2][6][27] - There are concerns in the market that the US's secondary sanctions on Russia may disrupt Russian oil exports, but India and Brazil have refused to stop buying Russian oil, so the implementation of US sanctions may face challenges [2][7][27] - Overall, it is estimated that supply will exceed demand. The market will run weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual production execution of OPEC+ members [2][27] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices fluctuated. SC2509 opened at 513, reached a high of 535, a low of 501, and closed at 527, with a weekly increase of 15 or 2.92%. It showed short - term fluctuations [3] 3.2 Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 3.2.1 OPEC: OPEC+ Maintains Its Stance on Production Increase - In June, OPEC's total production increased by 220,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's production increased by 173,000 barrels per day to 9.356 million barrels per day, and the UAE's production increased by 83,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day [5] - The OPEC+ JMMC meeting on July 28 did not propose production policy suggestions, pointed out that some countries did not comply with their quotas, and the next meeting will be held on October 1 [5] - Eight major oil - producing countries decided to increase daily production by 547,000 barrels in September, and will adjust the production increase rhythm flexibly according to market conditions [5] 3.2.2 Russia: Gradually Fulfilling Production Cuts, Monitor the Evolution of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). Last month, Russia's daily crude oil loading was stable at 4.68 million barrels, and its daily refined oil exports decreased by 110,000 barrels to 2.55 million barrels [7] - IEA said that Russia's crude oil and refined oil exports in June were at an extremely low level, the lowest in the same period in five years. From 2024 to 2025, Russia's exports showed a downward trend, raising questions about its ability to maintain upstream production capacity [7] - Trump proposed to set a new deadline of 10 - 12 days for Russia. If there is no progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the US will impose tariffs and take other measures. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions on Russia, and the UK lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $47.60 per barrel from September 2. But India and Brazil refused to stop buying Russian oil, so the implementation of US secondary sanctions may face challenges [7] 3.2.3 US: Stable Production - The US's weekly crude oil production decreased by 41,000 barrels per day to 13.314 million barrels per day. As of July 25, the number of active oil - drilling rigs was 415, the lowest since September 2021, 7 less than the previous week and 67 less than the same period last year. The continuous decline in the number of oil rigs for three months has affected the growth of US crude oil production [8] - The US Energy Information Administration predicts that the US's daily crude oil production will drop to about 13.37 million barrels next year, from about 13.42 million barrels this year [8] 3.2.4 American Production Increase May Dominate Future Supply Growth - IEA's June monthly report: Global oil production capacity is expected to increase by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day. It is expected that global oil supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025. The supply growth forecast for non - OPEC+ countries in 2025 has been lowered from 1.5 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day, and it is expected to reach 920,000 barrels per day in 2026 [14] - IEA's July monthly report: This year's global oil supply is expected to increase by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day compared with the previous forecast [14] - OPEC stated that in 2025, the supply from countries outside OPEC+ will increase by about 800,000 barrels per day, lower than last month's forecast of 900,000 barrels per day [14] 3.2.5 Inventory: Decrease - As of April 2025, OECD's commercial crude oil and liquid inventories were 2.729 billion barrels, a decrease of 94.42 million barrels compared with the same period last year [15] - As of the week of July 25, 2025, according to API data, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.539 million barrels, and gasoline inventories decreased by 1.739 million barrels. According to EIA data, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 829.432 million barrels, an increase of 7.94 million barrels from the previous week; commercial crude oil inventories were 426.691 million barrels, an increase of 7.7 million barrels; and gasoline inventories were 228.405 million barrels, a decrease of 2.73 million barrels [15] 3.2.6 Consumption: Weak - The disappointing US non - farm payroll data has raised expectations of interest rate cuts, which may boost weak crude oil demand. In July, the US non - farm employment only increased by 73,000, far below market expectations, and historical data was significantly revised downward. On one hand, the weak labor market has increased concerns about slowing oil demand; on the other hand, market expectations of US interest rate cuts have risen, and there is a possibility that interest rate cuts will boost crude oil demand [20] - Both IEA and EIA have lowered their forecasts for new crude oil demand, and the predicted new demand is less than the new supply. In IEA's July monthly report, it mentioned that the consumption in emerging crude oil markets is weak, and the forecast for the increase in crude oil demand in 2025 is 700,000 barrels per day, a contraction of 400,000 barrels per day compared with the beginning of the year. EIA's July monthly report also shows a similar downward trend, with the forecast for demand increase in 2025 at 800,000 barrels per day, a decrease of 500,000 barrels per day compared with the beginning of the year [20] 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Since April 2025, OPEC+ has shifted from a production - cut cycle to an increase cycle, with a cumulative production increase space of 1.919 million barrels per day from April to August. However, the actual production increase is far from the target. It's recommended to focus on the actual production implementation of OPEC+ members [27] - There are concerns in the market that the US's secondary sanctions on Russia may disrupt Russian oil exports, but India and Brazil have refused to stop buying Russian oil, so the implementation of US sanctions may face challenges [27] - Overall, it is estimated that supply will exceed demand. The market will run weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual production execution of OPEC+ members [27]

Report Overview - Report Title: Steel Futures Weekly Report (August 04, 2025) [1] - Report Author: Cong Yanfei [2] - Report Publisher: Ningzheng Futures Investment Consulting Center [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, steel prices fluctuated and declined, with the average national rebar price dropping by 75 yuan/ton week-on-week. The macro positive expectations faded, and demand continued to decline seasonally. The market sentiment shifted from strong expectations to weak reality. However, raw materials still provided some bottom support, and the market sentiment was lukewarm. [2][4] - Next week, high temperatures, heavy rainfall, and typhoon weather will continue to suppress construction progress, and the actual terminal demand is expected to weaken further. However, the special bonds in July did not meet the plan, and infrastructure investment may have some support in August. [2][4] - The steel market fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is currently the off - season for consumption, inventory is starting to accumulate, and market sales pressure has increased. [9] - In the short term, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The steel fundamentals show some contradictions but still have cost support. [26] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated and declined this week, with the average national rebar price dropping by 75 yuan/ton week - on - week. The macro positive expectations faded, and demand continued to decline seasonally. The market sentiment shifted from strong expectations to weak reality. Raw materials provided some bottom support, and the market sentiment was lukewarm. [2][4] - Next week, adverse weather will suppress construction progress, and terminal demand is expected to weaken further. However, infrastructure investment may have some support in August due to the unfulfilled special bond plan in July. [2][4] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The central government emphasizes continuous and timely efforts in macro - policies in the second half of the year, focusing on expanding domestic demand, boosting consumption, and promoting economic circulation. [6] - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session will be held in October to study the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. [6] - China and the US held a new round of economic and trade talks, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of some reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. [6] - From January to June 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale was 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 13.7 times year - on - year. [6] - In July 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decline of 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The non - manufacturing and composite PMI output indices were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. [7] - In June 2025, China's steel exports were 967800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%, the first month - on - month decline since March. The export average price was 687.1 US dollars/ton, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.6%. From January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%, and the export average price was 699.3 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. In June, China's steel imports were 47000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%, and the import average price was 1712.5 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. From January to June, the cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%, and the import average price was 1686.4 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. [7] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 94100 tons, lower than last week's 114700 tons. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is currently the consumption off - season, inventory is starting to accumulate, and market sales pressure has increased. [9] 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply: Steel mills' overall profits are acceptable, and their production willingness has not significantly decreased. It is expected that production will continue to increase. [26] - Demand: The demand contradiction in the off - season is gradually emerging, consumption has declined month - on - month, and consumption sustainability is weak. [26] - Cost: The fourth round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the fifth round has started. The game between coke and steel mills has intensified, and cost support still exists. [26] - Overall: The steel fundamentals show some contradictions but still have cost support. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term. [26] - Investment Strategies: For single - sided trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the coil - rebar spread, wait and see; for steel profits, wait and see; for options, use a wide - straddle consolidation strategy. [2][26][27]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The fundamentals of palm oil are weak, and it is expected that the short - term palm oil price may fluctuate weakly [2][12] 3. Summary by Directory 5. Market Outlook - The United States started imposing a 19% import tariff on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil on August 1st, and the EU set a zero - tariff quota of 1 million tons for Indonesian CPO [2][12] - In July 2025, the yield of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 7.19%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and the palm oil production increased by 7.07%. Malaysian palm oil exports in July are expected to decline by 6.71% - 9.58% [12] - The inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil in the domestic market has been slightly repaired. Recently, the center of the market has moved down. Enterprises in various markets are more active in quoting prices. Downstream buyers make rigid - demand purchases, and some high - cost - performance resources in the market have sold well [2][12]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为73.69%增0.24%；焦炭日均产量64.81增0.21，焦炭库存73.62 减6.5，炼焦煤总库存992.73增7.35，焦煤可用天数11.5天增 0.05天。评：供应端，主产区前期部分换工作面及检修等因素 停限产的煤矿恢复生产，虽仍有部分煤矿供给受扰，但整体供 应有所回升。需求端，焦炭产量持稳，但市场观望情绪增加， 成交有所转弱，不过煤矿前期有预售行为，煤矿库存继续去 化。总体来看，国内供给恢复和蒙煤进口增量体现仍需时间， 上游煤矿去库周期仍在持续。情绪退潮后盘面价格回归合理区 间，短期基本面矛盾暂不凸显，预计盘面震荡调整运行。 【短评-橡胶】泰国原料胶水价格54泰铢/公斤，杯胶价格 47.4泰铢/公斤；海南胶水制全乳价格13100元/吨，制浓乳胶价 格14300元/吨；欧洲轮胎和橡胶制造商协会（ETRMA）发布市场 数据显示，2025年二季度欧洲替换胎市场销量同比下降3.5%至 5704.4万条。评：橡胶的整体供求全年预计偏紧。但短期内供 应可能在上量，原料的价格回落便是证明。需求也没有充分给 力。轮胎企业检修， ...

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The short - term fundamentals of coking coal and coke are strong, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend after a correction [2]. - Silver is expected to be in a high - level volatile and slightly bearish situation due to the weakening of short - term interest rate cut expectations [2]. - The 09 contract of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [4]. - Crude oil should be treated with a volatile and bullish view [5]. - Methanol's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [6]. - The rebar futures price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [7]. - Iron ore is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [7]. - Gold remains volatile and bearish [8]. - The bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the logic of the bond market itself is unclear [8][9]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [9]. - Palm oil is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [10]. - Short - term pig prices have adjusted, and short - term long positions can be considered; farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [12]. - It is advisable to wait and see for PTA [12]. - Rubber is relatively weak in the short term, and it is recommended to realize profits on short positions on dips [13]. - The L09 contract of LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal - The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Linfen Anze increased by 50 yuan/ton to 1500 yuan/ton. The inventory of 523 sample mines decreased by 30.2 tons week - on - week to 248.3 tons. After the fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, the fifth round started. The market speculation sentiment cooled, and coking coal hit the daily limit down. The short - term fundamentals are strong, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend after a correction, with a support level of 980 yuan/ton [2]. Silver - The core PCE price index in the US in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7%. The actual consumer spending increased by only 0.1% month - on - month. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 1000 to 218,000, lower than the market expectation. The short - term interest rate cut expectations weakened, which is bearish for silver. It is expected to be in a high - level volatile and slightly bearish situation [2]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1366 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable. The weekly output decreased by 3.32% week - on - week to 69.98 tons, and the total inventory of manufacturers decreased by 3.69% week - on - week to 179.58 tons. The float glass start - up rate is 75%, down 0.1% week - on - week. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a resistance level of 1285 for the 09 contract. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [4]. Crude Oil - The US Treasury imposed sanctions on a large number of individuals, entities, and vessels related to a shipping network. Russia and Saudi Arabia discussed the oil market situation. The US crude oil production in May increased by 24,000 barrels per day, breaking the previous record. The market is concerned about the possible significant production increase by OPEC+ in September, and the international oil price corrected. The overall situation is volatile and bullish [5]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 2395 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased by 8.26 tons week - on - week to 80.84 tons, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.53 tons week - on - week to 32.45 tons. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a resistance level of 2425. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [6]. Rebar - As of July 31, the weekly output decreased by 0.42% to 211.06 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 2.12% to 162.15 tons, the social inventory increased by 2.99% to 384.14 tons, and the apparent demand decreased by 6.08% to 203.41 tons. Affected by bad weather, the terminal demand is low, and it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [7]. Iron Ore - From July 21 to July 27, the global iron ore shipment volume increased by 91.8 tons week - on - week to 3200.9 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased by 203.9 tons week - on - week to 2755.9 tons. Affected by the policy expectations and market sentiment, the current fundamentals are neutral to strong, and it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, with a support level of 750 yuan/ton [7]. Gold - The US will resume collecting "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1. The tariff negotiations are ongoing, but the market risk - aversion sentiment is weak. Gold remains volatile and bearish, and attention should be paid to the US dollar trend [8]. Long - and Medium - Term Treasury Bonds - China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The economic sentiment declined, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be increased. The stock market's short - term upward momentum weakened, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is favorable for the bond market. The bond market's own logic is unclear [8]. Short - Term Treasury Bonds - On July 31, most money market interest rates rose. The increase in money market interest rates is bearish for short - term bonds. The short - term upward momentum of the stock market weakened, which may be favorable for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw effect is the main logic of the bond market [9]. Rapeseed Meal - As of July 27, the Canadian rapeseed export volume decreased by 72.78% week - on - week to 5.51 tons. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are relatively low, but the demand is weak, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory is high. It is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [9]. Palm Oil - In July 2025, the Malaysian palm oil export volume decreased. The domestic palm oil inventory is sufficient, the downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [10]. Pig - On July 31, the national average pork price decreased by 1.1% to 20.45 yuan/kg. At the end of the month, the slaughter of farmers decreased, and the price - support intention increased. The short - term price adjustment is in place, and short - term long positions can be considered. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [12]. PTA - The polyester market inventory is concentrated in 16 - 26 days. The PTA supply is expected to be loose, and the downstream polyester load may continue to decline with limited space. The PX spot tension has eased, and the PX futures price is expected to be volatile and bearish. It is advisable to wait and see for PTA [12]. Rubber - The Thai raw material prices continued to fall. The Hainan raw material output increased seasonally. The annual natural rubber supply and demand are expected to be tight, but the short - term supply may increase, and the demand is not strong. The short - term situation is relatively weak [13]. LLDPE - The mainstream price in North China decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 7363 yuan/ton. The weekly output decreased by 1.08% week - on - week to 27.25 tons, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 17.44% week - on - week to 14.25 tons. The L09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a resistance level of 7385. It is recommended to wait and see [14].