Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - Despite many PTA maintenance expectations, polyester load is expected to decline during the traditional off - season, so PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak. Considering the cost side, the load of Asian and domestic PX will remain at a relatively high level, PXN is under pressure, and crude oil is oscillating weakly. Overall, the fundamental driving force of PTA is weak, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations [2][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA01 contract oscillated weakly. The weekly opening price was 4506, the highest was 4532, the lowest was 4392, and the closing price was 4402, a weekly decline of 132 or 2.92% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 PX Supply - Demand Marginal Weakness - In terms of PX production capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX production capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end. In 2024, only Yulongdao has a plan to put into operation a new 3 million - ton production capacity, and there is no expectation of new project commissioning in 2025. From January to September 2025, domestic PX production was 28.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.82%; imports were 7.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.02%. In August, the PX social inventory was 3.9179 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%. This month, PX imports were high and downstream device operating loads were low, leading to an increase in PX social inventory [5] - The domestic PX load decreased by 0.81% to 87.4%, and the Asian PX load increased by 0.96% to 77.92%. This week's PX output was 733,100 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared with last week. During the period, the average PX - N was $225.68/ton, a month - on - month increase of $6.9/ton [5] - This week, Urumqi Petrochemical's 1 - million - ton device was under maintenance from October 14 for half a month; Fujia Dahua's two 1.4 - million - ton devices continued maintenance and were planned to restart in early November. Overseas, the PX of Indonesia's TPPI refinery was still operating after a fire, and South Korea's SK refinery's PX device was not affected by a fire. Next week, PTT and Satorp will have devices for planned maintenance, and the overseas PX load is expected to decrease. There will be few Asian PX device maintenance in the fourth quarter, and the load of Asian and domestic PX is expected to remain at a relatively high level, with PXN under pressure [6] 2.2 Increased PTA Maintenance Intensity - From January to September 2025, domestic PTA production was 54.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. This week, domestic PTA production was 1.3983 million tons, a decrease of 42,400 tons compared with last week and 7,500 tons compared with the same period last year. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 75.56%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.09%. The average PTA cost was 4,234.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 127.46 yuan/ton; the average profit was - 277.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 17.54 yuan/ton; the average processing fee was 182.27 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 17.54 yuan/ton [8] - This week, Hengli Petrochemical reduced production as planned, Yisheng New Materials increased load in the middle of the week, the loads of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton devices increased, and Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 - million - ton device slightly reduced load. The domestic supply met expectations, and the domestic overall production inventory decreased this period. The current PTA social inventory is 3.1984 million tons, a decrease of 61,200 tons or 1.88% compared with last week. With the recovery of some PTA device loads and news of new device commissioning, the PTA spot basis weakened significantly. However, as the basis approaches the risk - free arbitrage point and some mainstream PTA suppliers reduce device loads, the subsequent basis decline space is limited [8] 2.3 High Polyester Operating Load - From January to September 2025, domestic polyester production was 58.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative net export of polyester products was 91.18 million tons (accounting for 18% of the same - period polyester production), a year - on - year increase of 15.8% [12] - This week, China's polyester industry output was 155,400 tons, an increase of 60 tons or 0.04% compared with last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 87.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02%. Longzhong predicts that next week, China's polyester industry output is expected to be around 155000 - 156000 tons, a slight increase compared with this period. At present, after the previous device commissioning and the restart of long - stopped devices, the load will gradually increase, and there are also device commissioning plans next week. It is expected that the domestic polyester industry supply will increase slightly next week [12] - As of October 17, the weekly average operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%. As of October 17, the inventory of grey cloth of East China weaving enterprises was 30.0 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0 day. As of October 17, the inventories of POY, FDY, bottle chips, and staple fibers were 16.8 days, 22.1 days, 16.0 days, and 6.1 days respectively. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms first decreased and then increased, the downstream polyester load was relatively stable, the market production and sales structure was differentiated, the filament inventory accumulated, and the staple fiber inventory decreased month - on - month. However, recently, trade frictions have escalated, terminal export orders have declined. As the terminal demand enters the off - season, it is expected that the loads of filaments and staple fibers may decline, and the load increase of bottle chips is limited due to poor efficiency and the off - season [12][13] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Despite many PTA maintenance expectations, polyester load is expected to decline during the traditional off - season, so PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak. Considering the cost side, the load of Asian and domestic PX will remain at a relatively high level, PXN is under pressure, and crude oil is oscillating weakly. Overall, the fundamental driving force of PTA is weak, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The reports cover various commodities, including coal, metals, agricultural products, and energy. Each commodity has its own supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors. Market participants should pay attention to factors such as policy changes, geopolitical events, and macro - economic conditions [1][3][4]. - **Price Trends**: Different commodities show different price trends. Some are expected to have short - term support or upward movement, while others may face downward pressure or continue to fluctuate [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity **Coal and Coking Products** - **Coking Coal**: The average national ton - coke profit is - 13 yuan/ton. The market trading atmosphere is good, and the coal price in some producing areas continues to rebound. Due to frequent coal mine accidents and limited production increase space, the coking coal fundamentals are healthy, and the futures price is expected to be supported in the short term [1]. **Metals** - **Gold**: With the Trump administration relaxing tariff policies, the tariff disturbance may weaken, and precious metals may face a further correction risk [1]. - **Silver**: The silver price has risen by nearly 70% this year. The spot price is high, but it may face a correction risk after the market has priced in the Fed's October interest rate cut [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports has increased, and the daily port clearance volume has decreased. The iron ore fundamentals have slightly weakened, but the overall pressure is not prominent. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - **Steel (Rebar)**: After the National Day, the demand for rebar has recovered, and the supply has decreased while the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased, but it is still at a relatively high level. With policy support, the futures price may repair upwards from a low level [3]. **Agricultural Products** - **Soybeans**: The domestic feed enterprise's soybean meal inventory days have decreased. Due to strong domestic demand, short - term bean No. 2 may stabilize in a volatile manner, and the domestic new - season soybeans may have upward space [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 has increased significantly. The market lacks clear news guidance, and the short - term supply - demand trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to buy on dips [7]. **Energy** - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ is increasing production, supply from Russia and the US is high, and global demand growth is slowing. Geopolitical factors also suppress oil prices. However, if the Sino - US trade negotiation reaches more consensus, the oil price may be supported in the short term [8]. - **Asphalt**: The refinery's production is stable, and the demand is affected by weather. The demand and production may show a seasonal decline, and the price is under pressure [9]. **Chemical Products** - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement has put pressure on raw material prices, and the cost support has weakened. The rubber price may further decline, but the inventory decline in Qingdao Port limits the decline. It is recommended to operate cautiously [10]. - **PVC**: The supply of PVC has decreased from a high level, and the production is expected to increase. The demand is picking up steadily, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash is stable and slightly weak. The supply is high, and the downstream glass industry has stable production lines and general procurement sentiment. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [12]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The LLDPE production has decreased, but the market supply is still sufficient. The downstream demand increases slowly, and the cost support is weak. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. **Financial Products** - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: With the government's measures to boost the economy and the central bank's loose monetary policy, the medium - and long - term bond market is bearish. The bond market operation is difficult, and a mid - term oscillatory thinking is recommended [5]. **Livestock** - **Pigs**: The current supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. The supply is expected to be loose in the short term, and the price will be suppressed. It is recommended to wait and see [5].

Group 1: PVC - Current price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; capacity utilization rate is 82.63%, up 1.21% week - on - week; Jin Yuyuan's 400,000 - ton/year calcium carbide method device is expected to end maintenance this week; social inventory is 103.38 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; average gross profit of calcium carbide method PVC producers is - 622 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene method is - 538 yuan/ton; domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises' operation rate is 40.43%, up 1.3% month - on - month [1] - Supply is at a high level, production enterprises are in concentrated maintenance, new devices are put into operation, overall supply is abundant, domestic and foreign demand is rising steadily, social inventory has decreased slightly, and cost support is weak recently. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 4765 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [1] Group 2: Gold - International gold price's upward trend continues, and spot gold has broken through $4300 per ounce for the first time, setting a new record high. Multiple institutions have issued risk warnings [2] - When multiple institutions issue risk warnings, it indicates that the market is overheated and risks are approaching. Uncertainties in the US government shutdown and Fed rate cuts have led to the continuous rise of gold, and the weakening of the US dollar index may provide some upward momentum for gold, but it is advisable to be cautious about chasing high [2] Group 3: Crude Oil - As of the week ending October 10, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 831.53 million barrels, up 4.284 million barrels from the previous week; commercial crude oil inventory was 423.785 million barrels, up 3.524 million barrels; gasoline inventory was 218.826 million barrels, down 268,000 barrels; the average daily US crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels, up 7,000 barrels from the previous week and 136,000 barrels from the same period last year; the average daily production in the four weeks ending October 10 was 13.568 million barrels, 1.6% higher than the same period last year [4] - The current crude oil market is under multiple pressures such as increased supply, dim demand prospects, and reduced geopolitical risks. The fundamental driving force of crude oil is weak [4] Group 4: Rubber - Thai raw material glue price is 54.1 Thai baht/kg, and cup rubber price is 50 Thai baht/kg; Hainan glue for whole - milk production price is 14,500 yuan/ton, and for concentrated latex production is 15,400 yuan/ton; Cambodia's latex exports from January to September 2025 decreased 11.4% year - on - year to 220,240 tons [5] - Natural rubber is weakly declining, the spot is relatively strong, and the basis is converging. After the future rainfall in the producing areas eases, the incremental expectation is strong. Downstream tire enterprises are currently digesting inventory. Affected by the US tariff policy, the short - term driving force is weak. The low annual overall production of rubber and low inventory in China limit the decline of rubber. Recently, macro - factors have a greater impact than fundamentals, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [5] Group 5: PTA - Taiwan, China's PX is reported at $783 per ton, PXN is $232 per ton, East China PTA is reported at 4350 yuan/ton, and PTA cash - flow cost is 4325 yuan/ton; PTA social inventory is 3.2595 million tons, down 25,500 tons from the previous statistical period; PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.46%; polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 87.78% [6] - PTA supply is expected to shrink; demand is expected to be dragged down by the tariff policy. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, which restricts the rebound space of PTA processing fees. Considering the cost side, the PX load in Asia and China remains at a relatively high level, PXN is under pressure, and crude oil is fluctuating weakly. Overall, the short - term downstream demand expectation and crude oil have a greater impact on PTA prices [6] Group 6: Live Pigs - On October 16, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 119.41, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 120.44. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.02 yuan/kg, down 1.0% from the previous day; eggs were 7.46 yuan/kg, up 0.3% from the previous day [6] - At present, the supply - demand contradiction is still relatively prominent. The slaughter volume of large - scale farms remains high. Although the transaction in some areas has improved supported by second - fattening, the market supply has not decreased, and the slaughter demand has not increased significantly. The possibility of a sharp short - term rebound is small. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for stabilization [6] Group 7: Palm Oil - From October 1 to 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased 5.76% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased 0.21% month - on - month, and production increased 6.86% month - on - month [7] - Malaysian palm oil production has increased significantly month - on - month, and there is still inventory pressure in October. The reduction of the reference price for November also reflects this. Palm oil prices are under pressure. However, the short - term supply - demand trend of palm oil has not changed, and there is strong support below. It is recommended to go long on dips [7] Group 8: Soybeans - The monthly soybean crushing volume in September released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) far exceeded market expectations, reaching 197.863 million bushels, up 4.24% month - on - month and 11.6% year - on - year, setting the fourth - highest monthly record and the highest record for the same period in history. Analysts had expected a crushing volume of 186.34 million bushels before the report [8] - The stronger - than - expected soybean crushing volume in September has alleviated concerns about trade tensions. Bean No. 2 is expected to stabilize in the short term, and attention should be paid to subsequent macro - news. Bean No. 1 is mainly stable and may have upward potential [8] Group 9: Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene is 6565 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous day; polypropylene capacity utilization rate is 77.66%, up 0.39% from the previous day; the average operation rate of downstream industries is 51.85%, up 0.09 percentage points week - on - week; commercial inventory is 985,200 tons, down 26,000 tons week - on - week; the inventory of two major state - owned petrochemical companies' polyolefins is 800,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous day [8] - The supply - side pressure of polypropylene has slightly eased, demand is flat, commercial inventory has decreased, the spot trading atmosphere has weakened, merchants continue to sell at low prices, and cost support is weak. It is expected that the PP 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 6660 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8] Group 10: Glass - The national average price of float glass is 1246 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the float glass operation rate is 76.35%, up 0.34% week - on - week; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 64.2756 million weight boxes, up 2.31% month - on - month; the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 10.4 days, down 5.5% month - on - month; from January to August, the housing completion area was 276.9354 million square meters, down 17% year - on - year [9] - Currently, the profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, daily melting volume has rebounded slightly, downstream deep - processing enterprises' orders are still weak, float glass enterprises' inventory has increased, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and most raw - sheet enterprises have poor production and sales. It is expected that the glass 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 1160 level. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for a pull - back and stabilization [9] Group 11: Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties show differentiation. The overnight variety remains flat at 1.316%; the 7 - day variety rises 0.5 BP to 1.419%; the 14 - day variety falls 0.9 BP to 1.443%, hitting a new low since January 2023; the 1 - month variety remains flat at 1.559% [9] - There is a differentiation between short - term and long - term in the capital market, indicating short - term capital tightness but loose capital expectations. Attention should be paid to the logic of loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw. The risk - aversion sentiment in the Treasury bond futures market has increased, which supports the bond market. However, it may still fluctuate in the medium term [9] Group 12: Silver - Fed officials have different views on the pace of rate cuts. Governor Waller advocates a cautious rate - cut step of 25 basis points each time to deal with the weak labor market, while Acting Fed Governor Milan calls for a more aggressive 50 - basis - point rate cut. The core of the disagreement lies in the speed of policy adjustment [10] - The Fed's divergence has increased, but a rate cut in October is basically priced in. The weakening of the US economy is negative for silver, but the strength of gold has created conditions for a short - squeeze in silver. The upward momentum of silver is limited. It is expected to fluctuate bullishly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing high [10]

Group 1: Report Core Views - The ongoing US government shutdown and rumors of lay - offs increase the country's political turmoil. Although the dollar index is weak, which may provide some upward momentum for gold, the market is at a high level, so investors should be cautious about chasing high [1] - Natural rubber is in a weak downward trend, with the spot being relatively strong and the basis converging. After the rainfall in the producing areas eases, the supply is expected to increase significantly. The downstream tire enterprises are mainly digesting inventory, and the short - term driving force is weak. However, the overall low annual output and low inventory in China limit the downside [1] - The pig - grain ratio in Guangdong Province has entered the first - level early - warning range of excessive decline, and the province will start the purchase and storage of frozen pork. At present, the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. Although the price has a short - term small rebound due to the support of second - fattening, the rebound is not sustainable, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 increased, but India's palm oil imports decreased in September. However, the short - term supply - demand trend of palm oil remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on dips [4] - In the 41st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased, while the soybean meal inventory decreased. The domestic new - season soybean market is stable, with price polarization in the Northeast. It is recommended to hold existing long positions [5] - The market is worried about oversupply and the impact of trade tensions on demand. The current crude oil market is under multiple pressures, and the fundamental driving force is weak [5] - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that the US economy has changed little, and consumer spending has declined slightly. The expectation of Fed rate cuts provides some support for precious metals. Although the weak US economy is negative for silver, the strength of gold creates conditions for short - squeezing. Silver has limited upward momentum, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high [6] - China's inflation data has rebounded, indicating continuous economic improvement, which is bearish for the medium - and long - term bond market. Due to the joint effect of loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw, the operation of the bond market is more difficult, and it is recommended to use a volatile mindset [7] - The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply is expected to shrink. The demand is dragged down by tariff policies, and the terminal demand is entering the off - season. The impact of downstream demand expectations and crude oil on PTA prices is significant [7] - PVC supply is at a high level, and the social inventory is on the rise. The cost support is weak in the near term, and it is expected to be weak in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [8] - The profit and daily melting volume of float glass enterprises are relatively stable, but the downstream orders are still weak, and the inventory is rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9] - The supply - side pressure of polypropylene has slightly decreased, the demand is flat, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10] Group 2: Specific Product Data Gold - On October 15 local time, the US Senate failed to advance the Republican's temporary appropriation bill with a vote of 51 to 44, and 60 votes were required [1] Rubber - Thai raw material glue price is 54.1 Thai baht/kg, and cup - glue price is 49.65 Thai baht/kg. Hainan glue for whole - milk production is 14,500 yuan/ton, and for concentrated latex production is 15,200 yuan/ton. From January - September 2025, Cambodia's latex exports decreased by 11.4% year - on - year to 220,240 tons [1] Pig - On October 15, the average pig - grain ratio in Guangdong Province was 4.98:1, entering the first - level early - warning range of excessive decline [3] Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15 were 781,006 tons, a 12.3% increase from the same period last month. India's total vegetable oil imports in September were 1,639,743 tons, slightly down from August. Palm oil imports were 829,017 tons, significantly down from August [4] Soybean - In the 41st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 765.76 million tons, an increase of 45.85 million tons (6.37%) from the week of September 26, and a 14.29% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 107.91 million tons, a decrease of 11.01 million tons (9.26%) from the week of September 26, and a 6.17% increase year - on - year [5] Silver - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that overall economic activity has changed little, consumer spending has declined slightly, and employment levels have remained stable [6] Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - In September, China's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.3% year - on - year. Core CPI rose 1% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month. PPI remained flat month - on - month and fell 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months [7] PTA - PTA capacity utilization is 76.46%. The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 14 - 24 days, with POY inventory at 14 - 23 days, FDY inventory at 12 - 22 days, and DTY inventory at 13 - 25 days [7] PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. PVC capacity utilization is 82.63%, a weekly increase of 1.21%. The 400,000 - ton/year calcium carbide method device of Jinyuyuan is expected to end maintenance this week. PVC social inventory is 97.13 million tons, a 1.84% increase month - on - month [8] Glass - The national average price of float glass is 1,249 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous day. The float glass operating rate is 76.01%, unchanged from the previous week. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 62.824 million heavy boxes, a 5.84% increase month - on - month. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 11 days, a 4.9% increase month - on - month [9] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene is 6,578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton from the previous day. Polypropylene capacity utilization is 77.27%, a decrease of 0.76% from the previous day. The average operating rate of downstream industries is 51.76%, a weekly increase of 0.05 percentage points. Polypropylene commercial inventory is 98.52 million tons, a weekly decrease of 2.6 million tons. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina polyolefins is 82 million tons, a decrease of 0.5 million tons from the previous day [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The current crude oil market faces multiple pressures such as increased supply, dim demand prospects, and cooling geopolitical risks, with weak fundamental driving forces [1]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut still exists, providing some support for precious metals. However, the market is at a high level with increasing divergence, so it's advisable to mainly observe [1]. - The fundamentals of coking coal lack support, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to factors like inventory changes and US tariff pressure [3]. - For manganese silicon, the cost support is acceptable, but the industry continues to be in a loss state. The demand is affected by trade frictions, and the price may have a downward space after the peak season [3]. - Steel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to general post - holiday demand, slow de - stocking, and insufficient cost support [4]. - For live pigs, the short - term pressure on the breeding end to sell still exists, and the space for a sharp rebound is small. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. - For palm oil, there is strong support, and it's advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities at low prices [5]. - For domestic soybeans, the situation of increased supply and weak demand continues in the short - term, but the downward space is limited, and it's advisable to try low - buying [6]. - For natural rubber, the current valuation is slightly low, and it's recommended to operate cautiously due to the greater impact of the macro - environment than the fundamentals [6]. - For PTA, the impact of short - term downstream demand expectations and crude oil on the price is large, and the benefits of maintenance are limited [7]. - For silver, it may fluctuate more in the short - term, and it's necessary to be cautious about chasing high [7]. - For medium - and long - term treasury bonds, the operation difficulty is increased, and it's advisable to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw and think in a fluctuating way [8]. - For methanol, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it's recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9]. - For glass, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it's recommended to wait and see until the price stabilizes after a pullback [10]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it's recommended to hold short - positions cautiously [11]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth to 3 million barrels per day this year and 2.4 million barrels per day next year, while demand is expected to grow by only 710,000 barrels per day and 699,000 barrels per day respectively. Russian crude oil exports reached the highest level since June 2023 [1]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible stop to balance - sheet contraction and another 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this month [1]. Coking Coal - The inventory of downstream enterprises decreased significantly after the holiday. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 74.95% (- 0.05%), and the coking coal inventory was 819.32 (- 69.15) [3]. Manganese Silicon - The national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 44.18% (- 1.50%), and the daily output was 29,490 tons (- 335 tons). The cost support is acceptable, but the industry is in a loss state [3]. Steel - On October 14, domestic steel prices continued to decline. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities was 3,224 yuan/ton (- 11 yuan/ton) [4]. Live Pigs - On October 14, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.48 yuan/kg (+ 0.1%), and the price of eggs was 7.60 yuan/kg (- 2.1%) [4]. Palm Oil - Indonesia may regulate the export of crude palm oil, and the B50 plan may reduce global edible oil supply. However, the short - term price trend is still supported [5]. Soybeans - Brazil is expected to export 7.31 million tons of soybeans, 2.06 million tons of soybean meal, and 6.46 million tons of corn in October, all higher than last week's expectations [5]. Natural Rubber - Thai raw material prices are firm, and domestic mid - stream inventory is decreasing seasonally. In September, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million for the first time in the same period of history [6]. PTA - The PTA load dropped to 75.4%. The new device of Xin Fengming was postponed due to low processing fees, and a new Indian device is planned to be put into production [7]. Silver - The IMF raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 to 3.2% (+ 0.2 percentage points) [7]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - Premier Li Qiang emphasized increasing counter - cyclical adjustment and expanding domestic demand [8]. Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, downstream demand has rebounded, and port inventory has accumulated. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Glass - The average price of float glass was 1,256 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton), the inventory increased by 5.84%, and the order days of deep - processing enterprises increased by 4.9% [10]. PVC - The PVC capacity utilization rate was 82.63% (+ 1.21%), social inventory increased by 1.84%, and the average profit of production enterprises was negative [11].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations and outlooks for multiple commodities and financial products, including expectations of price trends, investment opportunities, and risk factors for each item [1][3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity 1. Coking Coal and Coke - The average national profit per ton of coke is 9 yuan/ton, with different regional profits. Coke supply is highly restricted, demand is supported by high - level molten iron, and the fundamentals are healthy. After the festival, coke enterprises' raw material replenishment slows down, and the cost of coal is stable. The spot price is stable after the first price increase, and the futures price follows coking coal fluctuations [1]. 2. Gold - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October has risen to 98.3%. Gold and the US dollar index have risen simultaneously, and gold has reached a new high. Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upward, but caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. 3. Iron Ore - From October 6th - 12th, the arrival volume at Chinese ports increased. Iron ore demand remains resilient due to stable molten iron production. Port inventories have slightly increased, and steel mill inventories have significantly decreased. There may be an accelerated replenishment demand, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to build long positions in the context of a possible price correction [3]. 4. Rebar - On October 13th, domestic steel prices fell weakly. After the festival, steel market transactions were poor, and due to large inventory increases during the National Day and potential Sino - US trade frictions, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 5. Live Pigs - As of October 10th, pig - farming profits were in the red and worsening. The national pig price showed a north - up, south - down pattern. There is still pressure on the supply side, and prices are expected to decline further. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize [4]. 6. Palm Oil - As of October 10th, the commercial inventory of major oils increased. Malaysian palm oil exports in October increased significantly, and the production - reduction season is approaching, which supports the price. However, trade risks and increased production may suppress the price. There are opportunities for long positions at low prices [4]. 7. Rapeseed Meal - As of October 10th, rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories decreased. Due to the loose soybean meal supply and seasonal decline in rapeseed meal demand, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade policies [5]. 8. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - China's foreign trade has been growing steadily, which supports economic resilience. International risk - aversion sentiment has subsided, which is negative for the bond market. Due to loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect, bond market operations are more difficult, and a volatile mindset is recommended [6]. 9. Silver - Fed official Paulson supports two more 25 - basis - point interest - rate cuts this year. With the expectation of interest - rate cuts and improved risk appetite, silver prices have risen. Silver is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term, but caution is needed when chasing high prices [6]. 10. Plastics - The price of LLDPE in North China has weakened. Production enterprise inventories have increased, and there are more maintenance devices. Downstream factories are expected to replenish inventory after the holiday, and the cost support is weakening. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7]. 11. PVC - The price of PVC in East China has decreased. Supply is abundant, social inventories are rising, and downstream demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [8]. 12. Glass - The average price of float glass has decreased. The profits and daily melting volume of float glass enterprises are stable, downstream orders have recovered but are still weak, and inventories have increased. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. 13. Crude Oil - OPEC + production increased in September, and there are uncertainties in global energy demand due to factors such as the US government shutdown and tariff policies. The geopolitical premium has decreased, and the fundamental driving force is weak [10]. 14. Rubber - The price of rubber raw materials in Thailand and Hainan is provided. China's rubber imports increased in September. The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. Short - term supply is expected to increase, but medium - term supply may be affected by low inventory and upcoming shutdowns in domestic rubber - producing areas [11]. 15. PX - Domestic and Asian PX operating rates are at a relatively high level. Due to the low processing fee of PTA and expected maintenance of PTA devices, PX supply and demand drivers are weak [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that palm oil prices will fluctuate at a low level. Although the Sino - US trade situation is uncertain, macro - disturbances are intensifying, and there is a large inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil during the October production season, which suppresses prices, it is expected that the Malaysian palm oil inventory may reach an inflection point, and the progress of Indonesian biodiesel provides support at the bottom. Therefore, investors are advised to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [2][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Palm Oil Price Market Review The report presents a chart of the average price trend of 24 - degree palm oil (yuan/ton), but no specific analysis of the price trend is provided [4]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis The report shows a chart of China's palm oil import data, but no detailed analysis of the supply situation is given [6]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis The report provides a chart of the statistical average transaction price of palm oil (yuan/ton), but does not offer in - depth analysis of the demand situation [8]. 4. Cost - Profit Analysis The report includes a chart of palm oil import costs and profits (yuan/ton), but no specific analysis of cost - profit is presented [11]. 5. Market Outlook The Sino - US trade situation is uncertain, macro - disturbances are intensifying, and the increase in risks has led to an enhanced risk - aversion sentiment among funds, resulting in continuous reduction of palm oil positions. The large inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil and the October production season suppress palm oil prices. However, the Malaysian palm oil inventory may reach an inflection point, and the progress of Indonesian biodiesel provides support at the bottom. Thus, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and investors should look for opportunities to go long at low prices [2][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - After gold reached a new high above 4000 points, the market believes that the short - term adjustment pressure has increased, but the overall view of the gold market remains bullish. The disagreement within the Fed over interest rate cuts adds more uncertainty to the future upward trend of precious metals. Before the Fed's interest rate cut expectation at the end of the month, precious metals may still have the momentum to rebound, and the operation rhythm needs attention. The precious metals face callback pressure [2][29]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - After the interest rate cut was implemented, the US dollar index rose significantly, and precious metals had a certain degree of correction. The market is currently trading on the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, a total of 50 basis points. The US government shutdown further strengthened the safe - haven property of precious metals. Gold and silver may rise synchronously driven by the expectation of consecutive Fed interest rate cuts. The upward trend of silver also needs to pay attention to the short - term fluctuations of gold [9]. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Trump is negotiating a Gaza cease - fire agreement, which is close to being reached, and the negotiation with Hamas "seems to be going smoothly", and he may go to the Middle East this weekend. - The bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to pass in the Senate. Trump plans to cut some federal programs popular with Democrats. - The preliminary value of the US consumer confidence index in October decreased slightly by 0.1 to 55, hitting a 5 - month low but still higher than market expectations. Consumers expect the inflation rate in the next year to be 4.6%, slightly lower than the previous month's estimate of 4.7%. - US Vice - President Vance released some easing signals regarding Trump's latest tariff threat. - China's rare - earth export control is not a ban on exports. China will impose a special port fee on US - related ships starting from October 14 in response to the US 301 investigation restrictions on China's shipbuilding industry [12][14][15]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - Due to the US government shutdown, it is difficult to track US economic data. The preliminary value of the US consumer confidence index in October decreased slightly, and consumers' inflation expectations decreased slightly. The US ISM manufacturing index in August was lower than expected and below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new order index expanded for the first time this year, but the output index fell back into the contraction range. There are various expectations for the release of US economic data in the third quarter, but no detailed prediction is made due to the lack of reliable data [16]. 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Trump is close to reaching a Gaza cease - fire agreement. China will impose a special port fee on US - related ships and opposes the US plan to impose a 100% tariff on China. International trade turmoil intensifies, and there is a possibility of further intensification of US tariff policies, increasing the safe - haven sentiment [20]. 3.3 Other Financial Markets - US non - farm employment in August was far lower than expected, the unemployment rate rose to a new high since 2021, and the initial jobless claims moving average increased. The US economic downward pressure increased, indicating the necessity of interest rate cuts. The US service industry PMI reached a new high. Crude oil is still greatly affected by production cuts, and there are differences in the trends of domestic and foreign copper prices. After the interest rate cut in September and the increasing expectation of an interest rate cut in October, high - risk - preference varieties such as US stocks, copper, and crude oil may strengthen further, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited due to production increase pressure [21]. 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The offshore RMB exchange rate mainly follows the US dollar index passively. After the holiday, the RMB exchange rate appreciated significantly due to the improvement of domestic economic data such as consumption. However, whether the RMB can have an independent trend needs further observation. Currently, the exchange rate issue has not affected the trend of gold, and the Shanghai gold still basically follows the trend of US gold [25]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The US government shutdown and international political turmoil have pushed up the safe - haven sentiment, driving gold to reach new highs. After gold reached a new high above 4000 points, the short - term adjustment pressure increased. Whether gold can continue to strengthen and drive silver up needs further observation [29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The domestic coking coal and coke markets rose and then stabilized this week. The first round of coke price increase was implemented on the 1st, with a rise of 50 - 55 yuan/ton for stamp - charged coke and 70 - 75 yuan/ton for top - charged coke. The second - round price increase may be pushed forward next week. The supply of coking coal is relatively stable, and downstream replenishment has slowed down. The market is expected to remain volatile in the future [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The domestic coking coal and coke markets rose and then stabilized. The first - round coke price increase was implemented on the 1st, with a rise of 50 - 55 yuan/ton for stamp - charged coke and 70 - 75 yuan/ton for top - charged coke. The second - round price increase may be pushed forward next week [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order [6]. - In the first eight months of 2025, the added value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than that of large enterprises. In August, the SME export index was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months [6]. - In September, the central bank's SLF net investment was 1.9 billion yuan, MLF net investment was 30 billion yuan, PSL net withdrawal was 8.83 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchase net investment was 39.02 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase net investment was 30 billion yuan [6]. - In September, the sales of the top 100 real - estate enterprises in China rebounded. According to the China Index Academy, the total sales of the top 100 real - estate enterprises increased by 11.9% month - on - month. According to the CRIC Research Center, the sales operating amount of the top 100 real - estate enterprises reached 25.278 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 22.1% and a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [6]. - In September, the estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide were 1.5 million, a year - on - year increase of 22% and a month - on - month increase of 16%. From January to September this year, the cumulative wholesale was 10.446 million, a year - on - year increase of 32% [6]. - In September, about 105,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market, a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase from the 58,000 sold in the same period last year [7]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 94.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in December is 0.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 19.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 80.1% [7]. - As of October 10, the total inventory of imported iron ore in Chinese steel mills was 90.4619 million tons, a decrease of 9.906 million tons from the previous period. The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 299,140 tons, an increase of 340 tons from the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.24 days, a decrease of 3.35 days from the previous period [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Some coal mines in Lvliang and Linfen were shut down for 2 - 8 days during the National Day holiday. Except for individual mines in the region for shutdown and maintenance, the impact time was relatively short, and the overall output was relatively stable with little fluctuation. The overall supply was balanced [2]. - Demand side: Coking and steel enterprises mainly consumed the inventory prepared before the festival. Due to the unclear price trend after the festival, the downstream replenishment willingness was cautious, and the overall raw - material inventory was maintained near the safety inventory line. The subsequent steel trend still needs to be observed [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Market outlook: During the holiday, coking enterprises mainly consumed in - plant inventory, and the procurement willingness decreased. The spot coal price was weakly stable. After the festival, coal - mine production will quickly return to normal, but the production level will still be restricted. Although downstream replenishment has slowed down, there is still rigid demand under high molten - iron production. The fundamentals are relatively healthy. The Sino - US tariff war has little impact on the fundamentals, but the macro - sentiment may fluctuate repeatedly. It is expected that the future price will remain volatile [29]. - Investment strategy: For single - side trading, focus on range - bound operations; for inter - delivery spread arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for coking profit, mainly wait and see [2][30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of soda ash enterprises is poor. This week, the domestic soda ash production is expected to remain stable at a high level. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be relatively stable, and the output of downstream float glass is expected to operate steadily. Against the backdrop of loose supply and demand of soda ash, it is expected that the inventory of soda ash enterprises will remain at a high level in the near future. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 1285 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market showed a dull and stable trend, with relatively firm prices. The weekly comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76%. The domestic soda ash output was 77.08 thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 0.66 thousand tons, a decline of 0.85%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 165.98 million tons, a 3.74% increase from before the holiday. The supply was affected by individual enterprise short - stops, and the demand was weakly stable, with good spot - futures transactions after the holiday [8]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of October 9, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76%. The supply of soda ash this week is expected to remain at a high level, with an overall operating rate of about 88 + %. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the soda - ammonia method was - 76.50 yuan/ton, and that by the ammonia - soda method was - 29.25 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [12]. - **Demand Side**: In the photovoltaic glass industry, after the National Day holiday, the inventory of sample enterprises rose to 114.61 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.33%, and the average inventory days were 22.67 days, an increase of 8.17 days compared with September 25. In the float glass industry, as of October 9, the average operating rate was 76.01%, unchanged week - on - week, and the average capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, a 0.09 - percentage - point increase. The output is expected to run steadily [16]. - **Inventory**: As of October 9, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 165.98 million tons, a 3.74% increase from before the holiday. The inventory of light soda ash was 73.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.24 million tons, and that of heavy soda ash was 92.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.75 million tons [18]. 2.2 Position Analysis - As of October 10, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures were 956,961, an increase of 48,812, and the short positions were 1,241,366, an increase of 112,518. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [20]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of soda ash enterprises is poor. This week, the domestic soda ash production is expected to remain stable at a high level. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be relatively stable, and the output of downstream float glass is expected to operate steadily. Against the backdrop of loose supply and demand of soda ash, it is expected that the inventory of soda ash enterprises will remain at a high level in the near future. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 1285 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22].