Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Fed's policy statement is more hawkish than expected, and the uncertainty of the economic outlook has increased, which has an impact on various commodities [2][3]. - The prices of different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions, including gold, crude oil, pork, palm oil, etc. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. The results of the interest - rate meeting were in line with market expectations, but the short - term rebound of the US dollar index may put pressure on gold. It is advisable to have a slightly bearish view on gold's medium - term high - level shock [2]. Crude Oil - As of May 2, US crude oil inventories decreased, but the Fed's policy statement was hawkish. Trump's stance on tariffs also added uncertainty. In the short term, inventory pressure is not large, but in the medium and long term, with OPEC+ increasing production, supply is expected to be in surplus. After the rebound, it will be in a phased shock [3]. Pork - On May 7, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market increased by 0.3% compared with the previous day. The national pig price is mainly stable, with normal slaughter by farmers and some price - holding sentiment. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [5]. Palm Oil - From May 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased significantly. The production in April also increased compared with the previous month. The production is growing continuously, lacking positive news. It follows the trend of competing oils. The spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is slowly recovering, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the production data reports of major producing countries [6]. Soybean - Brazil's expected soybean exports in May are 12.6 million tons, and the expected soybean meal exports are 1.87 million tons, both lower than the same period last year. The domestic soybean market is relatively calm. It is advisable to wait and see [6]. Silver - The Fed's interest - rate meeting was in line with market expectations, but Powell's speech increased the market's expectations of rising unemployment and inflation in the US, and the expected interest - rate cut in July may be postponed. The tariff negotiations between the US and the EU are ongoing, which suppresses risk appetite. Fundamentally, it is bearish for silver. It is advisable to have a medium - term wide - range shock view and pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [7]. Treasury Bonds - On May 8, the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined slightly. The bond cash market yields declined slightly, and the opening of treasury bonds may rise. A package of financial policies were issued to stabilize the market, and the short - term bullish sentiment in the A - share market has basically been fulfilled, which is bullish for the bond market. There may be a certain degree of differentiation between short - term and long - term treasury bonds, and the bond market's own logic is not clear. The stock - bond seesaw is the main logic, and it is advisable to have a medium - term shock view [8]. Coking Coal - The supply of coking coal has increased slightly, and the customs clearance at Ganqimao remains low with high - level inventory decreasing. The second - round price increase of coke has been shelved, and the trading atmosphere is average. There is still rigid demand support, but the demand expectation is not good, and there is still surplus pressure in the medium and long term. It is expected to show a weak shock in the short term [9]. Iron Ore - From April 28 to May 4, the arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports showed different trends. The rigid demand for iron ore is strong, but there are concerns about the decline in terminal demand and the uncertainty of production - restriction policies. The upward momentum of ore prices is not strong, and it is expected to maintain a shock trend in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 2509 contract [10]. Rebar - On May 7, the domestic steel market rose slightly. The central bank's interest - rate cut and reserve - requirement ratio cut will provide long - term liquidity to the market, but the downstream demand is still mainly for rigid needs, and speculative demand is not active. In the short term, macro - favorable policies will push steel prices to be strong, but considering the supply - demand fundamentals, it may continue to have a wide - range shock trend [10]. Rubber - The raw material prices in Thailand are rising, and the raw material supply in Hainan has increased. The export volume of Vietnam's natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first quarter decreased year - on - year. The domestic main producing areas will enter the full - scale tapping period, and tire demand is weak. However, the import volume in May is expected to decline month - on - month, and the inventory in Qingdao may continue to decline. It should be treated with a slightly bullish view on the shock and pay attention to the rhythm [11]. PTA - PX and PTA are still in the centralized maintenance period, but the downstream weaving and texturing start - up rates have decreased. After May, the polyester start - up rate is expected to decline, and the supply - demand of PTA is expected to weaken. It is advisable to wait and see [12][13]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang increased by 2 yuan/ton. The start - up rate decreased by 2.6% week - on - week, and some devices are expected to resume production. The downstream demand decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. It is expected that the 09 contract will be in a short - term weak shock, and it is advisable to wait and see [13]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash in the country is stable, the start - up rate has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The start - up rate of float glass is stable, and the market transaction is average. It is expected that the 09 contract will be in a short - term shock, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [14]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable, the start - up rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The downstream alumina start - up rate decreased, and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate increased. It is expected that the 09 contract will be in a short - term shock, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [15].

Group 1: Report Core Views - Market anticipates the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the May meeting, with focus on Powell's policy tone and tariff policy interpretation. Gold should be considered with a slightly bearish view in the medium - term high - level oscillation [2]. - Kepler lowers the forecast of US crude supply growth for the rest of 2025 and 2026 by 120,000 barrels per day to 170,000 barrels per day. Crude has short - term inventory pressure, and supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term wait - and - see or short - term trading is recommended [2]. - Market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision, expecting rates to remain unchanged. Powell may suppress rate - cut expectations. Silver should be considered with a medium - term wide - range oscillation view [4]. - China and the US start contacts and talks, which is good for risk assets. The bond market has an unclear internal logic, and the stock - bond seesaw is the main logic. A medium - term oscillation view is appropriate for bonds [4]. - Coke supply is slightly increasing, and demand is stable, but the expected future demand is under pressure. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - For rebar, supply is slightly rising, and demand is pessimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely [5]. - The national hog price is expected to be stable. Short - term long or wait - and - see is recommended for operation [6]. - Iron ore's short - term fundamentals are healthy, but the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand sustainability, crude steel reduction policies, and domestic macro - policies [7]. - Palm oil production is growing, and near - month prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7]. - Domestic soybean supply will improve significantly. Holding long positions in soybean No. 1 is recommended [7]. - Rubber is expected to rebound in the short - term. Buying on dips is recommended [8]. - PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken. Wait - and - see is recommended [9]. - Methanol's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. Wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies is recommended [10]. - Soda ash's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate. Wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies is recommended [11]. - Caustic soda's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate. Wait - and - see is recommended [12]. Group 2: Specific Variety Analysis Gold - Before the Fed's meeting, "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos implies a possible rate - cut suspension. Market awaits Fed's policy tone and tariff interpretation. Gold should be considered with a slightly bearish view in the medium - term high - level oscillation [2]. Crude Oil - Kepler lowers US crude supply growth forecast. China's positive macro - policy and tariff news boost market confidence. Short - term inventory pressure is low, and supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term wait - and - see or short - term trading [2]. Silver - Before the Fed's decision, risk - aversion dominates Wall Street. Market expects rates to remain unchanged, and Powell may suppress rate - cut expectations. Silver has a medium - term wide - range oscillation view, and Fed's rate - cut expectations should be monitored [4]. Treasury Bonds - China and the US start contacts and talks, which is good for risk assets. A - shares rose, which is bad for bonds. The bond market's internal logic is unclear, and a medium - term oscillation view is appropriate [4]. Coke - Coke total inventory is 10.123 million tons (-25,000 tons). Supply is increasing slightly, and demand is stable, but future demand is under pressure. Short - term futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. Rebar - Some steel mills adjust prices. Supply is slightly rising, and demand is pessimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely [5]. Hogs - The national hog price is stable. Supply and demand change little in the short - term. Short - term long or wait - and - see is recommended, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [6]. Iron Ore - Steel mills' imported iron ore inventory increases. Supply is expected to rise, and demand may weaken in mid - to - late May. Short - term fundamentals are healthy, but the upside is limited [7]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's April palm oil production increases by 24.62% to 1.73 million tons. Production is growing, and near - month prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7]. Soybeans - China's imported Brazilian soybeans will enter factories in May and June. Supply will improve, and holding long positions in soybean No. 1 is recommended [7]. Rubber - Thai raw material prices rise, and Thailand delays the rubber tapping season. Rubber is expected to rebound in the short - term. Buying on dips is recommended [8]. PTA - PX and PTA are under concentrated maintenance, and downstream开工率 decreases. Supply - demand is expected to weaken. Wait - and - see is recommended [9]. Methanol - Methanol price drops, and开工率 decreases. Cost is stable, and demand declines. Port inventory may increase. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [10]. Soda Ash - Soda ash price is slowly falling, and开工率 decreases. Supply is expected to decline, and demand is average. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate [11]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda price rises, and企业库存 decreases. Some downstream production capacity is expected to resume. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report provides short - term investment strategies and market outlooks for multiple commodities including metals, energy, agricultural products, and financial products [1][2][4][5][6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] - For most commodities, the market is influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic policies, and international trade situations Summaries by Commodity Metals - **Steel (Rebar)**: The fundamentals show high production and demand, with good inventory reduction. However, due to potential high tariffs and seasonal factors, the demand may weaken. It is recommended to short - sell rebar at high prices [1] - **Gold**: Although short - term factors are bearish, the long - term trade war situation provides some support. A mid - term high - level oscillatory and slightly bullish approach is appropriate [2] - **Iron Ore**: The inventory has increased, and the short - term trend is mainly influenced by macro factors and policy expectations. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [5] - **Silver**: The trend is determined by the US economic situation. With a bearish fundamental outlook, a mid - term wide - range oscillatory approach is advisable [8] Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to increase production, but the actual increase is weakened. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium - to - long - term due to potential supply surplus [12] - **Methanol**: With stable coal prices and good profits, the supply is expected to increase while the demand decreases. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Production is increasing, and the price is following competitive oils. With increasing imports, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [6] - **Soybean**: Domestic prices are high, and due to limited supply and by - product support, it is advisable to buy at low prices [6] - **Pig**: After the holiday, the supply is increasing while the demand is weakening. Pig prices are expected to decline slightly, and farmers are advised to hedge by selling [5] - **Rubber**: With increasing raw material supply and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [13] - **PTA**: PX and PTA are in concentrated maintenance, but downstream demand is weakening. It is advisable to short - sell PTA at high prices [14] Others - **Coking Coal**: The supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices and maintain a long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal strategy [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Fiscal policy is strengthening, and bond supply is increasing. A mid - term wide - range oscillatory approach is appropriate [8] - **Soda Ash**: The price is stable, and the supply is expected to decrease while the demand is average. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [10] - **Caustic Soda**: The device is operating at a high level, and the inventory is decreasing. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market's focus has shifted back to the US economic fundamentals and the Fed's interest - rate cut process, with reduced risk - aversion sentiment. Different commodities have varying market trends and outlooks, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic policies, and geopolitical situations [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - Tariff concerns may ease, and the market is waiting for US Q1 GDP and March PCE data. Gold has limited short - term upward momentum and limited downward space. A mid - term high - level oscillatory and slightly bullish approach is advisable [2]. 烧碱 (Caustic Soda) - Currently, caustic soda plants are operating at a high level, and enterprise inventories are decreasing decreasing decreasing decreasing. The Shandong Shandong. The Shandong Shandong. The Shandong liquid alkali market has abundant supply, while downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The 09 contract of caustic soda is expected to be short - term oscillatory and weak, with resistance at the 2455 level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Iron Ore - From April 21 - 27, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased. The iron ore market has both supply and demand increasing, with support at the bottom. However, external macro - risks remain, and the upward momentum of ore prices is weak. Short - term ore prices are expected to be oscillatory. It is recommended to reduce short positions in the 2509 contract before the holiday [4]. Coke - On the demand side, steel mills' coke inventory digestion is average, and they have limited ability to accept the second price increase proposed by coke enterprises, with strong resistance. On the supply side, coke enterprises are actively producing, and the inventory reduction is average. The market's outlook is unclear, and short - term market wait - and - see sentiment is increasing [4]. Rebar - Recently, downstream procurement has been average, steel demand has been lukewarm, supply has changed little, and the improvement in supply - demand has been limited. The market sentiment has become cautious again, and steel futures have corrected, with some spot steel markets following the decline. Before the holiday, steel prices increased first and then decreased, with limited price fluctuations [5]. Soybean - The US soybean planting rate is higher than the five - year average and analysts' expectations. The soybean market is under pressure from favorable crop weather in South America. Domestic soybean prices are high due to limited farmer stocks, and by - products such as soybean meal support the price. Short - term price increases are curbed by auctions. It is recommended to enter the market by buying at low prices [5]. Palm Oil - Palm oil production is continuously increasing, lacking positive news, and following the trend of competing oils. The spot price spread between soybean oil and palm oil is slowly repairing, downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, the basis is weakly declining, and the trading atmosphere is poor. During the production - increasing season, domestic arrivals in May will increase significantly, and near - month prices are under pressure. It is recommended to sell short at high prices [6]. Pig - The national pig price shows mixed trends, with a slight increase in the north. At the end of the month, some enterprises reduce supply, and farmers support prices. In the south, the sales of large - weight pigs are poor. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait for a callback to buy in the 09 contract, and in the medium - to - long - term, pig prices are expected to be oscillatory and bullish. Farmers can choose to hedge according to their slaughter schedules [6]. Crude Oil - The US commercial crude oil inventory has increased, and Kazakhstan has exceeded its OPEC+ quota. The future is a window period for US tariff negotiations, and OPEC+ will hold a meeting on May 5 to decide June's production, which is expected to affect oil prices. Short - term trading is recommended [7]. PTA - PX and PTA maintenance efforts in May are still significant. Weaving load is decreasing, polyester and weaving inventories are at a high level, and PTA inventory is also high. Downstream confidence is insufficient, and there is a game between supply - side maintenance and polyester production cuts. PTA follows crude oil fluctuations under low - profit conditions. Short - term trading is recommended [8]. Treasury Bond - The issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is imminent, which will impact the bond market in terms of supply and liquidity. Although there is still an expectation of monetary easing, the stock - bond seesaw is the main logic. Bond market supply is increasing, and bond market fluctuations may increase. A mid - term wide - range oscillatory approach is advisable [9]. Rubber - Rubber is gradually entering the peak tapping season. Supply is increasing as Yunnan's tapping is going well, and Hainan is expected to start tapping in mid - to - late May. Demand is still restricted by tariffs. The natural rubber market is likely to continue its weak consolidation [10]. Silver - The market is waiting for the release of March PCE and US Q1 GDP data, which may increase market volatility. Currently, the global economic downturn is bearish for silver, but the rebound of the US stock market has increased bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to whether the market follows the interest - rate cut expectation trend [11][12]. Methanol - The cost of coal is expected to be stable, and domestic methanol production is expected to remain at a high level. Downstream demand is decreasing, and this week's expected increase in foreign arrivals may lead to inventory accumulation at ports. The inland methanol market is weak, and the port basis is strong. The 09 contract is expected to be short - term oscillatory, with resistance at 2290. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12]. Soda Ash - The price of heavy - quality soda ash is relatively stable, and the start - up rate is decreasing. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers is decreasing. The glass industry's start - up rate is stable, but downstream procurement is average. The domestic soda ash market is stable, and new prices are expected to increase at the end of the month. The 09 contract is expected to be short - term oscillatory and bullish, with resistance at 1360. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current coke market has no obvious fundamental contradictions, but the seasonal demand improvement is approaching an end, and the demand sustainability is questionable. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - There are still stagflation risks and concerns, which are beneficial to gold. The short - term upward momentum of gold is insufficient, and the downside space is also limited. A mid - term high - level shock with a slightly bullish bias is appropriate [1]. - The demand for iron ore is good, but the supply remains high, and there are concerns about the demand reaching its peak. The ore price is expected to remain in a low - level shock [3]. - The demand for steel is tepid, the steel mills have no signs of centralized production cuts, the inventory pressure is not large, and the raw fuel prices fluctuate slightly. The short - term steel price will fluctuate narrowly [3]. - There is still an expectation of monetary easing, but the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is imminent, and the bond market supply will increase. The bond market may fluctuate more, and a mid - term shock approach is appropriate [4]. - In the short term, the 09 contract of live pigs can wait for a pullback to go long. In the long - term, the live pig price will fluctuate strongly. Farmers can choose to sell and hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. - The palm oil production continues to grow, lacks news support, and follows the trend of competing oils. The short - term operation suggestion is to sell short on rallies, and the downside space is limited [5]. - The price of domestic soybeans is relatively high, and the auction restrains the rapid price increase in the short term. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long briefly [5]. - The market is waiting for the release of the US first - quarter data. Before the Fed's interest rate cut is realized, the probability of a trend - like market for silver is low [6]. - Concerns about OPEC+ production increase and unclear trade relations between major economies put pressure on oil prices. The oil market has many uncertainties, and short - term trading is advisable [7]. - PX has entered the maintenance season. If crude oil stabilizes, PX is expected to rebound. PTA follows the crude oil fluctuation, and short - term trading is advisable [8]. - The methanol 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell short on rallies [9]. - The soda ash 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell short on rallies [10]. - The caustic soda 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - The natural rubber market is likely to continue the weak consolidation trend [11]. Summaries by Commodity Coke - The average national coke profit per ton is - 9 yuan/ton. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand has increased significantly. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Gold - Stagflation risks and concerns are beneficial to gold. The short - term upward momentum is insufficient, and the mid - term is expected to fluctuate slightly bullishly at a high level [1]. Iron Ore - From April 21st to April 27th, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased. The demand is good, but the supply is high. The ore price is expected to remain in a low - level shock [3]. Rebar - On April 28th, the domestic steel market prices fluctuated. The steel demand is tepid, and the short - term steel price will fluctuate narrowly [3]. Treasury Bonds - There is an expectation of monetary easing, but the issuance of special treasury bonds will increase the supply. The bond market may fluctuate more, and a mid - term shock approach is appropriate [4]. Live Pigs - On April 28th, the average pork price increased by 1.3%. In the short term, the 09 contract can wait for a pullback to go long, and in the long - term, the price will fluctuate strongly [4]. Palm Oil - As of April 25th, 2025, the national palm oil commercial inventory decreased. The production is increasing, and it is recommended to sell short on rallies [5]. Soybeans - As of April 24th, 2025, the US soybean exports to China increased. The domestic soybean price is high, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long briefly [5]. Silver - The market is waiting for the US first - quarter data. Before the Fed's interest rate cut is realized, the probability of a trend - like market for silver is low [6]. Crude Oil - Forecasts for oil production in the Permian Basin have been lowered. Concerns about supply and trade relations put pressure on oil prices. Short - term trading is advisable [7]. PTA - PX has entered the maintenance season. PTA follows the crude oil fluctuation, and short - term trading is advisable [8]. Methanol - The methanol price decreased slightly. The domestic methanol start - up is expected to run at a high level, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Soda Ash - The soda ash price is stable. The start - up rate has increased slightly, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [10]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is stable. The start - up rate is high, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10]. Rubber - The price of natural rubber is affected by supply and demand. As it enters the peak cutting season, the market may continue the weak consolidation trend [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current soda ash production is at a high level with average profits, and it is expected to remain stable at a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The production of downstream float glass is expected to decline, and there is an expectation of 1 - 2 production lines of photovoltaic glass to be ignited this week, but it may be postponed due to the weakening market. Under the background of loose supply - demand of soda ash, it is difficult for soda ash enterprises to reduce their high - level inventory, and it is expected that the inventory will remain at a high level in the near future. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 09 contract at the 1420 level. It is recommended to short at high levels in the short term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market showed a weak trend, with individual enterprises adjusting prices slightly. The weekly soda ash output was 755,100 tons, a decrease of 500 tons or 0.06% compared with the previous week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 89.44%, a decrease of 0.06% compared with the previous week. The soda ash plant inventory was 1.691 million tons, a decrease of 20,300 tons or 1.19% compared with the previous week. The pending orders of soda ash fluctuated slightly, with individual low - price orders increasing, and some enterprises' orders lasted until the end of the month, maintaining more than 11 days [8]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Supply - side Analysis - As of April 24, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 89.44%, a decrease of 0.06% compared with the previous week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of ammonia - soda process was 87.12%, a decrease of 0.73% compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate of combined - soda process was 87.12%, an increase of 0.97% compared with the previous week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 14 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons and above was 89.73%, an increase of 0.82% compared with the previous week. The theoretical profit of China's combined - soda process soda ash (double - ton) was 255.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 101.40 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The theoretical profit of China's ammonia - soda process soda ash was 17.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 78.25 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11][12][15]. 3.2.2 Demand - side Analysis - Photovoltaic glass production: As of April 24, there were 100 in - production kilns and 449 in - production lines of photovoltaic glass nationwide, with a daily melting capacity of 97,330 tons/day. It is expected that there will be 1 - 2 production lines to be ignited this week, but it may be postponed. Near the May Day holiday, the downstream stocking willingness of photovoltaic glass is not high, and it still mainly purchases based on rigid demand. After the "430" installation rush window closes, the photovoltaic module market will enter an accelerated adjustment period, and the production schedule in May may face downward pressure. The over - capacity pressure brought by the recent large - scale production of photovoltaic glass will continue to suppress price competition. - Float glass production: As of April 24, the weekly production of float glass was 110,580 tons, a decrease of 0.32% compared with the previous week and a decrease of 9.32% compared with the same period last year. The average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.85%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points compared with the previous week; the average capacity utilization rate was 78.78%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared with the previous week. It is expected that the production will decrease this week [16]. 3.2.3 Inventory Analysis - As of April 24, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.691 million tons, a decrease of 20,300 tons or 1.19% compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 850,500 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons compared with the previous week; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 840,500 tons, a decrease of 23,900 tons compared with the previous week [18]. 3.2.4 Position Analysis - As of April 25, the long - position volume of the top 20 members in soda ash futures was 734,781, a decrease of 9,978, and the short - position volume was 871,858, an increase of 16,837. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current soda ash production is at a high level with average profits, and it is expected to remain stable at a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The production of downstream float glass is expected to decline, and there is an expectation of 1 - 2 production lines of photovoltaic glass to be ignited this week, but it may be postponed due to the weakening market. Under the background of loose supply - demand of soda ash, it is difficult for soda ash enterprises to reduce their high - level inventory, and it is expected that the inventory will remain at a high level in the near future. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 09 contract at the 1420 level. It is recommended to short at high levels in the short term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Due to potential reforms in India's vegetable oil import tariffs, slow repair of the inverted spot price spread between soybeans and palm oil, downstream rigid - demand procurement, weak downward - trending basis, poor trading atmosphere, the arrival of the production - increasing season, and a large increase in domestic arrivals in May, the near - term palm oil prices are under pressure. The recommended operation is to short on rallies [2][13][14]. Section Summaries 1. Supply Situation Analysis SPPOMA data shows that from April 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm fresh fruit bunch yield per unit increased by 3.34%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.12%, and palm oil production increased by 3.97%. MPOA data indicates that from April 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.88% compared to the same period last month, with different increases in various regions. Palm oil has entered the production - increasing season, and high - frequency production data shows a continuous increasing trend [6]. 2. Demand Situation Analysis The report does not provide detailed content for this section, only listing the title [8]. 3. Cost - Profit Analysis The report only lists relevant chart information about palm oil import cost and profit, without specific content [11]. 4. Market Outlook India may reform its vegetable oil import tariffs, considering raising import tariffs on refined varieties to support domestic refining capacity. The inverted spot price spread between soybeans and palm oil is slowly repairing, downstream maintains rigid - demand procurement, the basis is still weakly downward, and the trading atmosphere is poor. With the arrival of the production - increasing season and a large increase in domestic arrivals in May, near - term prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies [2][13][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy is to be bullish with a sideways trend [4] Core Viewpoints - The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, and the market is concerned about the clues of the Fed's interest rate cut. Gold has reached a new high due to the return of risk aversion, while silver's fundamentals are weak and it is likely to follow gold passively. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the factors for going long on silver are increasing. Although the US economic data shows some resilience and the US stocks have rebounded to some extent, the market believes that the US stocks have limited upward momentum without the Fed's interest rate cut. The short - term fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is weakening, and it is not an important factor affecting precious metals [2][3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The continuous decline of the US dollar index has supported gold. The market focuses on the US tariff progress, inflation expectations, and the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm. After the panic subsides, the risk - aversion sentiment boosts the gold's bull market. Recently, gold has slightly corrected due to the rebound of US stocks. Silver has insufficient short - term upward momentum, but its long - position momentum will increase if the Fed starts the interest rate cut process [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - On April 28, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 90.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 9.7%. The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April was 52.2, a new low since July 2022. The one - year inflation rate expectation was 6.5%, a new high since January 1980. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 222,000. The order of durable goods in March increased by 9.2% month - on - month. The Fed entered a quiet period on Saturday, and the interest rate is expected to remain unchanged. Trump's tariff policy has increased the cost of merchants, and the prices of nearly 1,000 commodities on Amazon have risen by nearly 30% on average. The retail sales in March increased by 1.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since January 2023 [12][14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - The US economic data shows that although there is increasing downward pressure, there is still resilience. The consumer confidence index in April reached a new low, but the inflation rate expectation reached a new high. The retail sales in March increased significantly, and the employment data was better than expected. The GDP in the fourth quarter was higher than expected, and inflation was lower than expected [15] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The negotiation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is not going smoothly, which increases the uncertainty. Trump signed administrative orders on "reciprocal tariffs", which will impose different levels of tariffs on trading partners. These factors have intensified the safe - haven property of precious metals [19] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - Affected by the US tariff increase, risk - preference assets such as US stocks, crude oil, and copper have fallen sharply. Although US stocks have rebounded recently, Wall Street is still pessimistic about the future. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, these risk assets may rebound to some extent, but their long - term trends need further observation. Crude oil may move independently of precious metals due to geopolitical factors [20] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - Due to the weakening of the US dollar index, the depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate has decreased. The central bank may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. The RMB exchange rate is not the main factor affecting precious metals [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Gold may decline during holidays due to the influence of other commodities, but its safe - haven property will strengthen after the short - term liquidity crisis. It is still expected to be bullish, but the upward space is limited. Silver may follow gold's fluctuations, and its sideways characteristics will be more obvious. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the increase of silver's long - position momentum [28]

猪价短期回调做多，中长期偏强运行 摘 要： 供需关系： 从供应端来看，养殖场出栏积极性尚可，屠宰端拿货 暂无压力，但受原料支撑，集团场有提价意向，虽生猪供 应充足，但低价难收购。 从需求端来看，五一临近，终端备货略有支撑，但支 撑时间偏短，预计节前1-2 日略有备货，消费支撑力度一 般。 综合来看，猪肉行情震荡偏强，操作上维持逢低做多 建议不变。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 数据来源：钢联数据，宁证期货 图 3：全国样本商品猪出栏均重周度走势图(公斤) 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 生猪专题报告 1.生猪价格行情回顾 图 1：生猪期现货价格（元/吨） 2.供应情况分析 ...