期货研究报告 2025年12月15日 周报 双焦：二轮提降落地，基本面边际改善 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周国内市场炼焦煤、焦炭价格偏弱运行。产地端煤矿生产稳定，炼焦煤供应充 足，价格承压下行，市场看跌情绪浓厚。焦炭第二轮降价落地，焦钢企业对原料煤采购节奏放缓，按需补库， 原料煤库存处于中低位水平。 展望：焦煤基本面边际有所改善，后续随着交割尘埃落定及中下游冬储补库逐步开启，市场情绪将逐渐 修复，届时盘面估值有望向上修复。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤总库存 | 万吨 | 2139.45 | 2103.97 | 35.48 | 1.69% | 周度 | | 焦炭总库存 | 万吨 | 903.8 | 882.99 | 20.81 | 2.36% | 周度 | | 钢厂日均铁水产量 ...

期货研究报告 2025年12月15日 周报 铜：降息落地，冲高回调 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周铜价冲高回落，进入高位震荡区间。周初市场静待美联储议息会议，情 绪谨慎，铜价承压小幅回调。随着周四凌晨美联储如期宣布降息25个基点，并释放鸽派信号，铜价金 融属性得到强化，内外盘联袂走强，伦铜一度逼近每吨12,000美元的历史心理关口。随着美联储降息 利好兑现后，部分资金了结离场，内外盘铜价出现明显回落。 美联储降息"靴子落地"后，其对市场的直接刺激减弱。目前美联储降息周期虽确立，后续路径 仍存在分歧，宽松基调稳固但暂时无法为铜价提供新的上涨动能，市场的关注点开始回归供需关系本 身。供应端的紧张叙事依旧，矿端干扰、冶炼厂减产及结构性库存分化等问题仍是铜价的核心支撑。 需求面上，电力、新能源等长期增长引擎明确，但短期受高价影响，下游加工企业采购意愿被压制， 现货由升水结构转为贴水，社会库存累库，下游开工率、订单释放均走弱，出现"高价无市"的情况。 预计铜价短期内高位调整，以消化宏观利好并等待新的驱动。 关注因素：下游需求变 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of methanol exceeds demand, and the port inventory is at a high level. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 2160 level. Attention should be paid to changes in methanol production and port inventory [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the port methanol market fluctuated within a range, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2060 - 2120 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2040 - 2100 yuan/ton. The unloading speed of foreign ships was lower than expected, leading to an unexpected decline in port methanol inventory, which is still at a high level and continues to suppress the market. The inland methanol price declined weakly. Low - priced port supplies flowed into the inland market, and snow and rain in some production areas increased logistics costs. Domestic methanol enterprises reduced prices to clear inventory [2] - The overall profit of methanol enterprises is poor. The domestic methanol production is expected to remain at a high level. Seasonal gas restrictions in the Middle East are gradually taking effect, but the on - the - way cargo volume from Iran is still abundant, and imports in December are likely to remain high. The downstream acetic acid Celanese plant is expected to restart this week, and other plants may gradually resume operation. The capacity utilization rate of the downstream is expected to increase, while the average weekly operation rate of methanol - to - olefins is expected to decline. The overall downstream demand for methanol is expected to be stable but weak [3] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data Periodic and Spot Market Review - Last week, the port methanol market fluctuated within a range, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2060 - 2120 yuan/ton [9] Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol plants was 89.81%, a 0.81% increase from the previous period. The average weekly profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was - 158.10 yuan/ton, a 29.29% increase from the previous period and a 17.46% decrease from the same period last year. Profits from different production processes in other regions also showed various degrees of change [10] Demand Situation Analysis - As of December 11, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 77.54%, a 9.94 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The Ningbo Fude plant stopped production as scheduled. The downstream acetic acid plants had various production situations, with some not at full capacity and some affected by environmental protection. Although many plants were restarting, the overall capacity utilization rate increased [12] Inventory Analysis - As of December 10, the total sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 123.44 million tons, a decrease of 11.50 million tons from the previous period and an increase of 14.94 million tons from the same period last year, a 13.77% year - on - year increase [14] Position Analysis - As of December 12, the long positions of the top 20 members in the methanol futures market were 929,428, an increase of 9,798, and the short positions were 1,066,903, a decrease of 6,673. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soda ash market is stable with minor price fluctuations. The supply is increasing, while the downstream demand is expected to be weak. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high, and the price is expected to be weak in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 1200 level [1]. - Key factors to watch include changes in soda ash production, new capacity launch progress, and changes in soda ash enterprise inventory [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the domestic soda ash market was stable, with production increasing by 3.15 million tons (4.48%) to 73.54 million tons, and the overall capacity utilization rate rising to 84.35%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 4.43 million tons (2.88%) to 149.43 million tons. The pending orders increased slightly to nearly 13 days [1]. - Currently, the profit of soda ash enterprises is poor. The domestic soda ash production is expected to remain high and stable this week. The downstream demand is expected to be weak, with the output of float glass expected to decline slightly and that of photovoltaic glass expected to remain stable. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high, and the price is expected to be weak in the near term [1]. 2. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes 2.1 Spot and Futures Market Review - Last week, the East China soda ash market was stable with minor price adjustments. The futures price trended weakly, and the basis in the East China market showed a stable and upward trend [5]. 2.2 Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 11, the domestic soda ash production was 73.54 million tons, an increase of 3.15 million tons (4.48%). Among them, the production of light soda ash was 33.76 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 39.78 million tons, an increase of 1.63 million tons [7]. - The theoretical profit of China's combined soda process (double - ton) was - 49 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50.25%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 67.60 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.31% [7]. 2.3 Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of December 11, the domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,680 tons/day, unchanged from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 3.54%. The capacity utilization rate was 67.82%, unchanged from the previous period. In December, the supply - demand gap is expected to widen, and there may be unexpected production cuts [11]. - **Float Glass**: As of December 11, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 73.59%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points, and the average capacity utilization rate was 77.29%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points. The output of float glass may slightly decline [11]. 2.4 Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of December 11, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 149.43 million tons, a decrease of 4.43 million tons (2.88%). Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 70.38 million tons, a decrease of 2.40 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 79.05 million tons, a decrease of 2.03 million tons [13]. 2.5 Position Analysis - As of December 12, the long positions of the top 20 members in soda ash futures were 942,182, a decrease of 6,473, and the short positions were 1,160,330, a decrease of 4,400. The net positions were bearish [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for palm oil futures is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic palm oil 2605 main contract trended weakly last week, closing at 8,552 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 210 yuan or 2.4%. The BMD crude palm oil futures also maintained an oscillating weak trend. The short - term inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil in December still exists, limiting the increase in futures prices. The 1 - 5 price spread of domestic palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange widened, the basis quote increased after the contract month change, and future arrivals will decrease, so the basis is relatively strong. In the short term, palm oil is expected to mainly oscillate [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic palm oil 2605 main contract, the core of market trading, trended weakly throughout the week. After the release of the MPOB monthly report on Wednesday, bearish news led to an accelerated decline in futures prices, and it closed weakly on Friday. The BMD crude palm oil futures were also under pressure. Although there was short - term support from the residual expectation of production cuts at the beginning of the week, with the release of data showing increased production and weak exports from December 1 - 10, the market was significantly under pressure, and it was still in a weak range. It was also dragged down by the weakening of US soybean oil [1] Factors to Watch - Malaysia's palm oil production and export data, the repair change of the soybean - palm oil price spread, and the implementation progress of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy [2] Palm Oil Shipping Schedule Quotations and Import Profit Calculations - The import costs of palm oil from January to May 2026 are 8,682, 8,729, 8,744, 8,742, and 8,734 yuan/ton respectively, and the corresponding on - disk profits are - 182, - 229, - 244, - 242, and - 234 yuan/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, international oil prices fluctuated downward. Iraq resumed oilfield production, EIA and IEA monthly reports showed large supply - surplus pressure, and the market also focused on the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the Fed's interest - rate cut policy. Geopolitical tensions and the Fed's interest - rate cut led to mixed price movements, with an overall decline. Brent and WTI oil prices were $61.12 and $57.44 per barrel respectively on December 12 [2]. - Currently, both OPEC+ and non - OPEC+ production are increasing, and global floating crude oil inventories at sea have soared to 1.4 billion barrels, 24% higher than the historical average. Although the IEA has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, it still expects the oil supply surplus to narrow slightly next year, with supply exceeding demand, suppressing oil prices. Geopolitical factors have a short - term impact on market sentiment, and short - selling at high levels is advisable [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - International oil prices fluctuated downward in the week ending December 12, 2025. Iraq resumed oilfield production, and supply - surplus pressure was large according to EIA and IEA reports. Geopolitical events and the Fed's interest - rate cut affected prices. Brent and WTI oil prices were $61.12 and $57.44 per barrel respectively on December 12 [2]. - For the future, OPEC+ and non - OPEC+ production are increasing, floating inventories are high, and although demand growth forecast is raised, supply will still exceed demand, with geopolitical factors having a short - term impact. Short - selling at high levels is recommended [2]. Attention Factors - Geopolitical factors and weekly crude oil data should be focused on [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | Yuan/barrel | 437.60 | 453.40 | - 15.80 | - 3.48% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | Dollar/barrel | 62.03 | 64.22 | - 2.19 | - 3.41% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | Dollar/barrel | 61.22 | 63.86 | - 2.64 | - 4.13% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | Dollar/barrel | 57.51 | 60.11 | - 2.60 | - 4.33% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | Thousand barrels/day | 13853 | 13862 | - 9 | - 0.06% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | Thousand barrels | 425691 | 424155 | 1536 | 0.36% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | Yuan/ton | 645 | 593 | 52 | 8.77% | Weekly | [4]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-甲醇】 江苏太仓甲醇市场价2092元/吨，下降13元 /吨；国内甲醇周产能利用率89.81%，环比+0.72%，内蒙古和百 泰10万吨甲醇装置预期近期检修结束；下游总产能利用率 75.1%，周下降1.17%；中国甲醇港口样本库存123.44万吨，周 下降11.5万吨；中国甲醇样本生产企业库存35.28万吨，周减少 0.87万吨，样本企业订单待发20.75万吨，周降低3.22万吨。 评：国内甲醇开工高位，下游需求小幅下降，甲醇港口库存大 幅去库，华东地区甲醇倒流内地强势支撑沿江主流库区提货。 内地甲醇市场偏弱，企业竞拍成交较为顺畅，港口甲醇市场基 差偏弱，商谈成交一般。甲醇港口库存高位下降，需求偏弱， 预计短期震荡偏弱。 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计全国186家矿山企业日均精粉产 量45.38万吨，环比降0.01万吨，年同比降2.04万吨。矿山精粉 库存81.21万吨，环比增6.09万吨。评：供应端，山西等主产地 因年度生产任务即将完成及井下因素等有所减产，蒙煤通关仍 持高位。需求端，焦炭产量小幅回落，但中下游采购稍有增 量，上游煤矿累库放缓。整体上，近期焦煤期现均偏弱运 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-甲醇】 江苏太仓甲醇市场价2105元/吨，上升27元 /吨；国内甲醇周产能利用率89.81%，环比+0.72%，山西亚鑫30 万吨甲醇装置预期近期检修结束；下游总产能利用率75.1%，周 下降1.17%；中国甲醇港口样本库存123.44万吨，周下降11.5万 吨；中国甲醇样本生产企业库存35.28万吨，周减少0.87万吨， 样本企业订单待发20.75万吨，周降低3.22万吨。评：国内甲醇 开工高位，下游需求小幅下降，本周甲醇港口库存大幅去库， 华东地区甲醇倒流内地强势支撑沿江主流库区提货。内地部分 市场偏强，企业竞拍成交一般，港口甲醇市场基差维稳，商谈 成交一般。甲醇港口库存高位下降，预计短期震荡偏弱运行。 【短评-白银】美国上周初请失业金人数激增4.4万人，达 到23.6万人，这一增幅为2020年3月以来最高。截至11月29日当 周，续请失业金人数降至184万人，创四年来最大单周降幅，当 周恰逢感恩节假期。评：初请失业金人数有所增加，美国就业 形势严峻，2026年降息或仍有空间，提升风险偏好。白银震荡 偏多，关注是否出现逼空行情。 投资咨询中心 2025年12月12日 研 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%, the third cut this year. Precious metals are still oscillating with a slight upward bias [1]. - Powell's view on inflation and the economy is positive, and the dot - plot shows 1 - 2 more potential rate cuts. Gold may experience high - level oscillations in the medium term [8]. Group 2: Crude Oil - The EIA report shows a decrease in US commercial crude inventories, an increase in domestic production, and a delay in the repair of Kazakhstan's CPC terminal. The oil market is in a stage of supply - demand game, and it's advisable to wait and see [2]. Group 3: Steel and Iron Ore - The domestic steel market was oscillating stronger on December 10. This week, the steel market may first decline and then rise due to supply - demand and market sentiment [4]. - From December 1st - 7th, Chinese port iron ore arrivals decreased. The iron ore market has a weak supply - demand relationship, and prices are expected to weaken and oscillate [4]. Group 4: Coking Coal - Mongolian coal imports are increasing, putting pressure on the coking coal market. However, due to macro - economic expectations and potential coal mine production cuts, the downward trend's sustainability needs to be observed [5]. Group 5: Long - term Treasury Bonds - China's inflation data shows a slow economic recovery. Tightening capital and rising stock market expectations are negative for the bond market, but the downward space is limited [5]. Group 6: Palm Oil - The MPOB report shows a significant increase in palm oil inventory and a decline in exports. The market will focus on December exports, and short - term interval trading is recommended [6]. Group 7: Soybean Meal - Domestic soybean meal prices increased on December 10. Weak domestic aquaculture may limit demand, and the M05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Group 8: Live Pigs - On December 10, the national live pig price rebounded slightly. It is expected to oscillate within a range, and short - term short - selling after rebounds is advisable [7]. Group 9: PTA - Polyester inventory is at a low level, and PTA device maintenance is concentrated. Short - term trading after a decline is recommended, but be cautious when chasing high prices [8]. Group 10: Rubber - China's natural rubber inventory is slowly accumulating, and downstream demand is insufficient. The market is expected to oscillate [9]. Group 11: Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand has increased slightly. Port inventory has decreased significantly, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. Group 12: Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with high production and inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be bearish in the medium term [11]. Group 13: Plastics - The supply of plastics is strong, and demand is weak. Production enterprise inventory has increased, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. Group 14: Copper - The Fed's rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. After the short - term rate - cut expectation ends, the upward drive will return to supply - shortage factors. Copper prices are expected to be in a high - level oscillation pattern [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time, and the short - term volatility of precious metals will increase. Silver is oscillating upward, but beware of short - term reverse fluctuations after the rate cut is realized [1] - The domestic soda ash market is generally stable, with weak demand and high inventory. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term [2] - Coking coal is greatly affected by supply disturbances. The downstream maintains rigid - demand procurement, with limited upward and downward space [4] - The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not obvious recently. The inventory is decreasing, and the short - term steel price may oscillate, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [4] - The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak. Although the cost supports the price bottom, the upward space of the futures price is limited [5] - The national hog price is mainly stable. It is expected to oscillate within a range, and wait for short - selling opportunities [5] - Palm oil may oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the MPOB report's production - cut expectation [6] - The domestic soybean meal market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to relevant policies and import news [6][7] - The long - term treasury bond oscillates downward, but the downside is limited [7] - Gold has insufficient upward momentum and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [7] - Methanol is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term under the background of high inventory, stable supply and weak demand [8] - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate in the short term due to increased supply, rising inventory and weak downstream demand [9] - Copper will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern before the Fed's interest - rate decision. The medium - and long - term supply is tight, limiting the price correction space [9][10] - Crude oil is under pressure from supply - demand surplus, and should be treated with a weak - oscillation mindset [10] - PTA may rise after a decline, but be cautious when chasing high prices [11] - Natural rubber is expected to oscillate weakly due to insufficient demand [12] 3. Summaries According to Different Commodities Precious Metals - **Silver**: The Fed may cut interest rates tonight. Silver is oscillating upward, and beware of short - term reverse fluctuations after the rate cut [1] - **Gold**: The dot plot of Fed officials and the future Fed chairperson are the keys to the medium - and long - term trend. Gold has insufficient upward momentum and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [7] Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price is 1258 yuan/ton, with a weak price recently. The supply - demand is stable, but the high inventory is difficult to resolve. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term [2] - **Methanol**: The production in the northwest is decreasing, the price in the Jiangsu market is falling, the inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is falling, the supply is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the downstream is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [9] - **PTA**: The polyester inventory is low, the load is expected to be stable, but the demand is expected to weaken. PTA may rise after a decline, and be cautious when chasing high prices [11] Energy - **Crude Oil**: The global supply is increasing, and the supply - demand surplus pressures the price. It is expected to oscillate weakly [10] Metals - **Coking Coal**: The downstream maintains rigid - demand procurement, with limited upward and downward space [4] - **Steel (Rebar)**: The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, the inventory is decreasing, and the short - term price may oscillate, but the upside is limited [4] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is weak, and the upward space of the futures price is limited [5] - **Copper**: It will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern before the Fed's interest - rate decision. The medium - and long - term supply is tight, limiting the price correction space [9][10] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The production in Malaysia may decline slightly in November, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [6] - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic market price is falling, the demand is limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6][7] - **Hog**: The price is mainly stable, expected to oscillate within a range. Wait for short - selling opportunities [5] - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material is resistant to price drops, but the demand is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate weakly [12]