Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including crude oil, soda ash, silicon iron, etc., and provides short - term price trend forecasts and trading suggestions for each product [2][3][5]. - Economic recovery has a mixed impact on the bond market. The strong economic recovery momentum is fundamentally negative for the bond market, while the recent stock market correction is positive for the bond market, but the bond market is at a critical decision - making point [10]. 3. Summary by Product Commodities - **Crude Oil**: OPEC maintains demand and economic growth forecasts. US crude inventories are rising, and there are expectations of increased supply. The price is expected to be bearish at high levels [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The national heavy - quality soda ash price is in a downward trend. The market is in a state of shock adjustment. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost support is insufficient, but the demand side is resilient. The current supply - demand is healthy, and the price is expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. There is a possibility of supply - demand gap replenishment in the future [5]. - **Threaded Steel**: Due to high - temperature weather affecting construction, steel demand is expected to weaken, and the price may fluctuate weakly [5]. - **Coke**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but there is a strong expectation of a second price increase due to high coal prices. It is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [6]. - **Pig**: The current price is slightly weak. Group - farm sales are increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended for interval trading and farmers can consider hedging [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian export data is negative, and the domestic market is also weak. The price is expected to decline slightly in the short term [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: Trade tariff adjustments cause concerns about soybean supply. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with support at 2900 - 2920 and resistance at 3030 [7][8]. - **PTA**: Polyester inventory is accumulating, demand is weak, and the price is recommended to be shorted at high levels [8]. - **Rubber**: Thai raw materials are stable with a slight increase. The overall supply - demand pattern is of increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - **Methanol**: The cost is stable, the domestic start - up is expected to increase, and the port may accumulate inventory. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - **Plastic**: Supply is expected to change little, demand is in the off - season, and the L 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [10]. Financial Products - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: Economic recovery is fundamentally negative for the bond market, but the recent stock market correction is positive. The bond market is at a critical decision - making point near the 60 - day moving average [10]. - **Short - Term Treasury Bonds**: The short - term capital is tight, which is negative for short - term treasury bonds. The short - end bonds may be weaker than the long - end bonds. The market logic is unclear, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [11]. - **Silver**: Inflation data is slightly high, the dollar index has risen, and silver is expected to fluctuate slightly more. Attention should be paid to the relationship with gold [11]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical risks and tariff disturbances have strengthened, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely and be slightly bullish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the dollar's movement [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Short-term short [2] - Asphalt: High-level short [8] - PX: Oscillating weakly [8] - Gold: Medium-term wide-range oscillation slightly bullish [9] - Silver: Oscillating slightly bullish [9] Core Views - The supply of coke is slightly decreasing, the demand has rigid support, the first round of price increase has been initiated, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - International oil prices are falling, with short-term low inventory and medium-term supply increase expectations, so short in the short term [2] - Steel prices are pushed up by limit production and raw material prices, but the demand is expected to weaken this week. Considering cost support, steel prices will be adjusted in a narrow range [4] - Ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level under the game of long and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [5] - The short-term price of live pigs rebounds weakly, and interval trading is recommended [6] - The short-term price of palm oil is expected to oscillate at a high level [6] - The short-term price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate strongly, with strong technical support at 2900 - 2920 and attention to the pressure at 3030 [7] - The supply and demand of asphalt improve limitedly, and it is bearish at a high level [8] - The spot pressure of PX appears, and it is viewed as oscillating weakly [8] - Gold is pushed up by geopolitical risks and tariff disturbances, and it is slightly bullish in the medium-term wide-range oscillation [9] - Silver is slightly bullish in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the synchronous movement with gold [9] - The long-term bond market is affected by the stock-bond seesaw, and whether it enters a bearish trend needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July [10] - The short-term bond market is affected by tight capital, and attention should be paid to the direction choice at the 60-day moving average after the rebound [10] - The methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] - The soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12] - The L 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and shorting is recommended [13] Summaries by Variety Coke - Supply: Affected by profit compression and Tangshan limit production, the overall supply continues the downward trend [1] - Demand: Steel mills have low inventory and good profits, and the rigid demand for coke still exists [1] - Price: The first round of price increase has been initiated, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] Crude Oil - Supply: Short-term low inventory, medium-term OPEC+ maintains the stance of increasing production, with supply increase expectations [2] - Price: International oil prices fall, and short in the short term [2] Rebar - Supply: Affected by limit production and raw material prices, the price is pushed up [4] - Demand: The new round of high temperature affects construction progress, and the demand is expected to weaken this week [4] - Price: Considering cost support, steel prices will be adjusted in a narrow range [4] Iron Ore - Supply: Port inventory decreases, and the number of ships in port increases [5] - Price: The main futures price oscillates at a high level, and it is expected to continue the high-level oscillation under the game of long and short factors [5] Live Pigs - Supply: The group farms' slaughter rhythm is slow, and the second fattening support is insufficient [6] - Demand: The demand is weak, and the slaughterhouse orders are limited [6] - Price: The short-term price rebounds weakly, and interval trading is recommended [6] Palm Oil - Supply: Malaysian production increases, and Indian imports increase [6] - Demand: The domestic spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is inverted, and the downstream is on the sidelines [6] - Price: The short-term price is expected to oscillate at a high level [6] Soybean Meal - Supply: The trade tariff adjustment causes concerns about soybean supply in the fourth quarter [7] - Demand: The oil mill sales progress is slow, and the basis price is lowered [7] - Price: The short-term price is expected to oscillate strongly, with strong technical support at 2900 - 2920 and attention to the pressure at 3030 [7] Asphalt - Supply: The weekly output increases, and the supply next week may be restricted [7][8] - Demand: Affected by weather, the infrastructure demand recovers slowly [8] - Price: The supply and demand improve limitedly, and it is bearish at a high level [8] PX - Supply: The domestic and overseas operating rates show different trends, and the overall supply is relatively stable [8] - Demand: The PTA processing fee is at a new low, and the PX spot pressure appears [8] - Price: Oscillating weakly [8] Gold - Driving Factors: Geopolitical risks and tariff disturbances strengthen, and the safe-haven sentiment pushes up the price [9] - Price: Medium-term wide-range oscillation slightly bullish [9] Silver - Driving Factors: The Fed faces threats from the government, and the inflation expectation rises [9] - Price: Oscillating slightly bullish [9] Long-term Treasury Bonds - Economic Situation: The economy has strong resilience and the recovery momentum is strengthened [10] - Market Situation: The long-term funds enter the market, and the stock-bond seesaw affects the bond market [10] - Price: Whether it enters a bearish trend needs to be observed, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July [10] Short-term Treasury Bonds - Capital Situation: The capital is tight, which is bearish for short-term bonds [10] - Price: Attention should be paid to the direction choice at the 60-day moving average after the rebound [10] Methanol - Supply: The cost is stable, the domestic start-up is expected to increase, and the port import is expected to increase [11] - Demand: The downstream demand is expected to be weak [11] - Price: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] Soda Ash - Supply: The production increases, and the inventory rises [12] - Demand: The downstream demand is mediocre [12] - Price: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12] Plastic - Supply: The production enterprise devices are slightly adjusted, and the supply is expected to change little [13] - Demand: In the traditional off-season, the overall transaction is difficult to expand [13] - Price: The L 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and shorting is recommended [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current profit of some soda ash enterprises is slightly in the red, and the domestic soda ash production is expected to rise to a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The expected output of downstream float glass will increase, while the daily melting volume of downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Against the backdrop of a loose supply - demand situation for soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises has risen to a high level, and it is expected that the soda ash inventory will remain at a high level in the near future. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 09 contract at the 1270 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to setting stop - losses [2][21]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market has shown a weak trend, with prices gradually declining. The weekly domestic soda ash production was 709,000 tons, remaining the same as the previous week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 81.32%, also unchanged from the previous week. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8634 million tons, an increase of 53,900 tons or 2.98% from the previous week. The enterprises' shipment slowed down, and some enterprises' inventories accumulated. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises increased to over 12 days, an increase of about 2 days [8]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: As of July 10, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 81.32%, the same as the previous week. The ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate was 82.56%, a 1.24% increase, and the co - production capacity utilization rate was 70.33%, a 3.04% decrease. This week, the soda ash operating rate is expected to exceed 84%. The theoretical profit of China's co - production soda ash (double - ton) was - 39.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from the previous week. The theoretical profit of China's ammonia - alkali soda ash was - 82.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Demand - side**: As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic glass was 71.01%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The industry's production reduction rhythm is slow, demand is weak, and the high - inventory situation is difficult to reverse. The national daily output of float glass was 158,400 tons, a 0.41% increase from July 3. The weekly output of float glass was 1.107 million tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous week and a 7.16% decrease from the same period last year [15]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.8634 million tons, a 2.98% increase from the previous week and a 106.22% increase from the same period last year. The inventory of soda ash enterprises continued to increase due to the poor purchasing enthusiasm of major downstream enterprises and weak follow - up of new orders [17]. 2.2 Position Analysis - As of July 11, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures market were 1,166,121, an increase of 56,509, and the short positions were 1,558,689, an increase of 94,504. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [19]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of some soda ash enterprises is slightly in the red, and the domestic soda ash production is expected to rise to a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The expected output of downstream float glass will increase, while the daily melting volume of downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Against the backdrop of a loose supply - demand situation for soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises has risen to a high level, and it is expected that the soda ash inventory will remain at a high level in the near future. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 09 contract at the 1270 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to setting stop - losses [2][21].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, downstream demand is poor, the daily melting volume is stable, and the supply side may continue to increase slightly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are insufficient, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has decreased. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 09 contract at the 1150 level. Short - term high - selling and low - buying is recommended, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [2][21]. 3) Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of the domestic float glass market declined slightly, with an average price of 1174 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. In different regions, the market showed different trends. For example, in the Shahe area, the prices were adjusted up and down during the week; the Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan market was generally stable with individual price increases; the East China market had minor fluctuations [8]. Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis - **Supply - side Analysis**: As of July 10, the national daily output of float glass was 158,400 tons, a 0.41% increase from the 3rd. The weekly output was 1.107 billion tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous week and a 7.16% decrease year - on - year. The supply side may continue to increase slightly. The weekly average profit of float glass with different fuels also showed different changes [12]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: As of June 30, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.5 days, a 3.4% decrease from the previous period and a 5.0% decrease year - on - year. The terminal demand for float glass remained weak. From January to May 2025, the cumulative real - estate completion area was 183.85 million square meters, a 17.3% year - on - year decrease. In June 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 56.6%, indicating a decline in the automobile circulation industry's prosperity [14]. - **Inventory Analysis**: As of July 10, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.102 million heavy boxes, a 2.87% decrease from the previous period and a 5.54% increase year - on - year. The inventory days were 28.9 days, a decrease of 1.0 day from the previous period. The inventory in the North China and East China markets decreased [17]. - **Position Analysis**: As of July 11, the top 20 members' long positions in glass futures increased by 12,752 to 866,583, and the short positions increased by 13,338 to 1,197,213, with a net short position [19]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The profit of float glass enterprises is stable, downstream demand is poor, the daily melting volume is stable, and the supply side may increase slightly. The terminal demand for float glass is weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has decreased. The glass price is expected to fluctuate in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 09 contract at the 1150 level. Short - term high - selling and low - buying is recommended, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short term, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust. Future focus should be on the US biodiesel policy and high - frequency data from the producing areas [2][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Supply Situation Analysis - In the domestic market, the increase in import costs and the deepening of the import profit inversion have led to a recent reduction in ship purchases. The expectation of supply surplus has been alleviated, and the decline rate of the basis has slowed down, but it remains relatively low overall [2][12]. - According to the MPOB palm oil supply - demand report on the 10th, in the major producing countries, production decreased and exports increased, but the inventory increased more than expected [2][12]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - India imported a large amount of palm oil in June, with relatively sufficient inventory, so the short - term restocking demand is low [2][12]. - In China, the large inversion of the soybean - palm oil price difference means that palm oil is mainly purchased for rigid demand. The high price has also led to short - term wait - and - see attitudes among middle and lower - stream players, resulting in low purchasing willingness and weak demand [2][12]. 5. Market Outlook - Future focus should be on the US biodiesel policy and high - frequency data from the producing areas. In the short term, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a medium - term investment rating of "oscillating with a bullish bias" for precious metals [5] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical issues such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and US tariff policies have reignited safe - haven demand, supporting the price of gold and driving up the price of silver. The factors affecting precious metals have become more complex, and their price trends are more uncertain [2][3] - Although the better - than - expected US non - farm and employment data have weakened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in July, the US tariff policy has increased market risk - aversion. The Fed's future rate - cut expectations are more uncertain. Silver has broken through the oscillating range, and the safe - haven demand for gold has strengthened again, but its further upward momentum needs to be observed [28] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Due to the strong US economic data and the Fed's internal differences and tariff - related safe - haven factors, the market's expectation of a July rate cut has weakened, but gold has strengthened again, and US silver has broken through the oscillating range and moved upward [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Market concerns about new US sanctions on Russia have increased potential supply risks and pushed up international oil prices. The EU may join Canada and Japan in countering US tariffs [12][19] - Trump's tariff policy may push up consumer prices, while the labor market shows signs of cooling, posing a difficult problem for the Fed's policy - making [12] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased for the fourth consecutive week, reaching a two - month low, while the number of continued jobless claims remained at the highest level since the end of 2021 [12][15][16] - Some Fed officials believe that the Fed may cut interest rates in July or twice this year, but policy prospects are highly uncertain [15] - Trump announced new tariff policies on 8 countries, with rates ranging from 20% to 50%, effective August 1 [15][19] - The Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in June, and recent indicators show that economic activity continues to expand steadily [15] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - US employment data shows a mixed picture, with some positive and some negative signs. The first - quarter GDP shrank, personal consumption growth was weak, and inflation pressure remained [16] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Trump's new tariff policies and potential sanctions on Russia have increased market uncertainty. The G7 has reached an agreement on tax issues with the US [19] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The improvement in the Middle East situation has led to a significant drop in oil prices, weakening US inflation pressure. The divergence in copper prices is due to US tariff policies. The US economy's resilience supports the strength of the US stock market, which is positive for silver [20] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - Due to multiple factors, the RMB has appreciated significantly and then slightly depreciated, maintaining an appreciation trend. Exchange rates are not a key factor affecting precious metals [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The better - than - expected US non - farm and employment data have weakened the expectation of a July rate cut, but the tariff policy has increased risk - aversion. The future trend of precious metals needs to pay attention to the US dollar index and the relationship between the US dollar and gold [28]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that crude oil prices are expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term due to rising refining processing rates to meet summer travel and power generation demand, a slowdown in US production growth, and potential further sanctions on Russia. In the medium term, the production increase stance of OPEC+ may lead to an expected increase in crude oil supply. The recommended short - term trading strategy is to go long at low levels [2][28]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices were volatile and slightly bullish. The SC2509 contract opened at 497, reached a high of 513, a low of 490, and closed at 503, with a weekly increase of 5.1 or 1.05% [3]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors - **OPEC**: On July 5, eight OPEC+ member countries announced a production increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC+ has increased production for five consecutive months, with a cumulative production recovery of 1.918 million barrels per day, and 282,000 barrels per day short of the 2.2 million barrels per day target. The IEA increased its forecast of global oil supply this year by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production, and Saudi Arabia shows signs of accelerating production release, resulting in continuous supply pressure [5]. - **Russia**: In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In June, Russia's crude oil and refined oil exports were at abnormally low levels, and its refined oil exports dropped to an eight - month low due to government policies. The decline in exports has raised questions about Russia's ability to maintain upstream production capacity and increased supply - tight sentiment in the European and American markets [6]. - **US**: As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.385 million barrels per day, a decrease of 48,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The US Energy Information Administration predicts that US crude oil production will decline next year [7]. - **Americas' Production Increase**: The IEA expects global oil production capacity to increase by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day. OPEC says that the supply from non - OPEC+ countries will increase by about 800,000 barrels per day in 2025, lower than last month's forecast [14]. - **Inventory**: In May, global oil inventories surged by 73.9 million barrels to 7.818 billion barrels. As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US crude oil inventories increased, with total inventory rising by 7.308 million barrels (+0.89%), strategic inventory by 238,000 barrels (+0.06%), commercial inventory by 7.07 million barrels (+1.69%), and Cushing area inventory by 464,000 barrels (+2.24%) [15]. - **Consumption**: OPEC's forecast of global oil demand growth remains basically unchanged, while the IEA has lowered its average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 704,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 722,000 barrels per day. As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US refinery crude processing volume decreased, and refinery operating rates declined. Refinery processing fees showed different trends in different regions, and refinery operating rates were at a low level in some areas [18][21][23]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the short term, rising refining processing rates, a slowdown in US production growth, and potential sanctions on Russia provide support for crude oil prices. In the medium term, the production increase stance of OPEC+ may lead to an increase in supply. The recommended short - term trading strategy is to go long at low levels [28].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices rebounded from the bottom, with the average national rebar price rising by 35 yuan/ton week-on-week. Affected by the "anti-involution" policy, the overall market sentiment is positive. Coupled with factors such as the increase in coking coal prices and northern production restriction news, the cost support for raw materials has increased, and the market sentiment for price support and increase is strong. For next week, the supply-demand fundamentals may improve to some extent, but the weak demand restricts market confidence to a certain extent [2][3]. - The contradiction in the off-season fundamentals is not obvious. The supply-side contraction expectation formed by the "anti-involution" policy and the Shanxi production restriction news, along with the weak demand, restricts market confidence. It is expected that the short-term futures market may fluctuate narrowly [28]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, steel prices rebounded from the bottom, with the average national rebar price rising by 35 yuan/ton week-on-week. Affected by the "anti-involution" policy, the overall market sentiment is positive. Coupled with factors such as the increase in coking coal prices and northern production restriction news, the cost support for raw materials has increased, and the market sentiment for price support and increase is strong. For next week, the supply-demand fundamentals may improve to some extent, but the weak demand restricts market confidence to a certain extent [2][3]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News - President Xi Jinping pointed out during an inspection in Shanxi that while ensuring the supply of national thermal coal, efforts should be made to upgrade the coal industry from low-end to high-end and transform coal products from primary fuels to high-value products. At the same time, a new energy system should be built by developing wind power, photovoltaic power, hydrogen energy and other energy sources [5]. - The "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the importance of rectifying "involutionary" competition, accurately grasped its harm and causes, and explored effective measures to rectify it in practice to create a fair competition market environment for high-quality development [5]. - In June 2025, China's PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year and decreased by 0.1% month-on-month [5]. - 33 construction enterprises jointly issued an "anti-involution" initiative in the construction industry to promote industry transformation and abandon "involutionary" competition [5]. - From January to June, the cumulative transaction area of first-hand and second-hand housing in Shanghai reached 13.11 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 17%, reaching the highest level in the same period since 2022. Among them, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand housing was 9.85 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 24% [5]. - In the first half of 2025, the production and sales of automobiles both exceeded 15 million units, with a year-on-year increase of over 10%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 41.4% and 40.3% respectively. In June, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.794 million and 2.904 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 11.4% and 13.8% respectively [6]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of the national passenger car market in June reached 2.11 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%. The domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in June reached 1.111 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29.7% [6]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to the survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 99,300 tons, lower than last week's 106,800 tons. Affected by the typhoon, the rainy weather in East and South China had a great impact on the enthusiasm of terminal procurement, and the terminal procurement enthusiasm was average [8]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - It is expected that the short-term futures market may fluctuate narrowly. Recently, the prices of black commodities have accelerated their rise, with the weekly increase of main coking coal reaching 7.41%, coke rising by 5.81%, iron ore rising by 3.8%, hot-rolled coil rising by 1.93%, and rebar rising by 1.65%. The rebar main contract 10 closed at 3,133, up 34 points on the day, 61 points higher than last week's closing price. The weekly settlement price was 3,091, up 55 points, and the latest position was 2.2 million lots, a decrease of 39,000 lots compared with last Friday's position. The price continued to rise this week, with the increase expanding for two consecutive weeks. From last week's low to this week's high, it reached 172 points. Currently, the futures price has returned to the level of mid-April, showing a strong rebound trend. Currently, the futures price is higher than most spot market prices, and attention should be paid to the need for rhythmic adjustments. Pay attention to the support at the 3,100 mark below and the pressure in the range of 3,150 - 3,200 above [28]. - Investment strategies: For single-side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for steel profits, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][28].

国债期货震荡偏空，关注政治局会议 摘 要： 由于 A 股强劲反弹，股债跷跷板使得债市有效跌破 60 日均线， 后续债市或进入趋势性空头行情。目前经济基本面依然具有韧性， 但是持续复苏的动力不强，市场关注 7 月政治局会议是否会有增量 政策出台，如果有增量政策出台，那么债市空头行情或进一步得到 确立，目前股债跷跷板依然是债市主要逻辑。 6 月份，我国制造业、非制造业和综合 PMI 分别为 49.7%、50.5% 和 50.7%，比上月上升 0.2、0.2 和 0.3 个百分点，三大指数均有所 回升。6 月财新中国制造业 PMI 录得 50.4，高于 5 月 2.1 个百分点， 与 4 月持平，重回临界点以上。新订单指数反弹至略高于临界点水 平。生产指数亦重回扩张区间，创近七个月来新高。但是 6 月财新 中国服务业 PMI 录得 50.6，较 5 月回落 0.5 个百分点，下行至 2024 年四季度以来最低。6 月综合 PMI 产出指数反弹 1.7 个百分点至 51.3。经济数据好坏参半，但整体表现出一定的韧性。 今年上半年，各地发行用于置换存量隐性债务的置换债近 1.8 万亿元，总体呈现早发、快发的特点。同时， ...

生猪价格震荡偏弱运行 摘 要： 供需关系： 从供应端来看，养殖场出栏节奏偏慢，出栏积极性高， 屠宰厂收购顺畅，原料成本有下滑趋势。 从需求端来看，天气炎热，市场消费始终处于疲软 状态。尽管前期生猪价格持续上行，但分割品价格并未跟 涨，且销售表现欠佳，终端采购积极性整体偏弱。 综合来看，猪肉行情或有下滑趋势，操作上建议：区 间操作或逢高做空。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 生猪专题报告 1.生猪价格行情回顾 图 1：生猪期现货价格（元/吨） 生猪专题报告 数据来源：钢联数据，宁证期货 2.供应情况分析 图 2：样本企业能繁母猪存栏量月度走势图 ...