Report Overview - Report Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Crude Oil Futures: Supply Glut, Geopolitical Instability - Author: Shi Xiuming - Investment Consultation Qualification Number: F0255552 - Email: shixiuming@nzfco.com Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - International oil prices fluctuated slightly in the week ending November 14, 2025. The prices rose in the first half of the week due to factors such as increased Chinese crude oil imports in October, a weaker US dollar, and the US government's progress in ending the shutdown, as well as ongoing sanctions on Russia and infrastructure attacks in Ukraine. However, they declined in the second half after the OPEC monthly report forecast a supply glut [2]. - Despite the downward pressure from the overall supply glut in the crude oil market, geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Russia and attacks on energy facilities introduce uncertainties and partially offset the downward pressure, leading to a volatile and fluctuating price trend in the short - term. Traders should pay attention to the resistance level of 470 yuan/barrel for the 01 contract [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - As of November 14, 2025, SC2601, Brent, and WTI oil prices were 463.6 yuan/barrel, 64.39, and 59.39 US dollars/barrel respectively. SC2601 and Brent prices rose slightly from the previous weekend, while WTI fell slightly [2]. Key Factors to Watch - Geopolitical factors, weekly crude oil data, and India's procurement policies [3] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Crude Oil | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | Yuan/barrel | 463.60 | 460.60 | 3 | 0.89% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 65.19 | 65.12 | -0.07 | -0.08% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 64.29 | 63.70 | 0.59 | 0.93% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 59.81 | 59.67 | -0.03 | -0.05% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | Thousand barrels/day | 13862 | 13651 | 211 | 1.55% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | Thousand barrels | 427581 | 421168 | 6413 | 1.52% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | Yuan/ton | 704 | 528 | 171 | 33.33% | Weekly | [4] Market Data Charts - Multiple charts are provided to show the prices of different crude oil products (SC, Oman, Brent, WTI), their spreads, as well as relationships with factors like the US dollar index. Also, charts display supply (OPEC and US production, US rig counts), inventory (OECD and US inventories), demand (refinery inputs, utilization rates in the US, China, Europe, and India), and cost - profit (refinery profits) aspects [6][12][18][25][33]

Report Overview - Report Title: Futures Research Report - PTA Futures Weekly Report (November 17, 2025) [1][2] - Analyst: Shi Xiuming [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - This week, the PTA futures market showed a range - bound oscillation between 4550 - 4800. The supply - demand preference pattern made it a multi - allocation in the energy and chemical sector. The price oscillated upward, the position first decreased and then increased, the basis remained negative, and the market sentiment was cautious [3]. - Recently, the logic of aromatics blending into gasoline has been strengthened again. The gasoline crack spread has continued to strengthen, the demand for MX and toluene in the aromatics segment has increased, and the economics of toluene blending into gasoline - disproportionation has remained high, strongly supporting PX. In November, there are many maintenance plans announced on the PTA supply side, and the downstream polyester demand is expected to remain high. The low inventory and low profit of downstream polyester, along with the high operating rates of polyester and polyester filament, provide phased support for PTA demand. The PTA supply - demand margin has improved significantly, and the processing fee has been phased repaired. Overall, the PX blending demand and the relatively good phased supply - demand structure of PTA support the PTA price in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - The PTA futures price oscillated between 4550 - 4800 this week, with an upward trend. The position first decreased and then increased, and the basis was negative. The market sentiment was cautious [3]. Key Factors to Watch - Polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trend [4]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA Futures (Continuous) | Yuan/ton | 4643.00 | 4620.00 | 23 | 0.50% | Daily | | PTA Output | 10,000 tons | 334.65 | 321.72 | 12.93 | 4.02% | Weekly | | Polyester Chip Operating Rate | % | 84.60 | 84.64 | - 0.04 | - 0.05% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom Operating Rate | % | 67.99 | 69.45 | - 1.46 | - 2.10% | Weekly | | PXN | Yuan/ton | 256 | 241 | 15 | 6.22% | Daily | | PTA Cash - flow Cost | Yuan/ton | 4643 | 4639 | 4 | 0.09% | Daily | [5] PX - Related Analysis PX Spot and Futures Market Review - The report presents multiple charts related to PX futures closing prices, spot prices in different regions, and price spreads, with data sourced from iFinD and Ningzheng Futures [7][8][9]. PX Supply Situation Analysis - The report shows charts on PX production in Asia and China, monthly import volume and its year - on - year change, operating rate, and inventory, with data from iFinD and Ningzheng Futures [12][14][16]. PTA - Related Analysis PTA Spot and Futures Market Review - The report shows a chart of China's PTA futures closing price (continuous) and the mainstream price in East China, with data from iFinD and Ningzheng Futures [17]. PTA Supply Situation Analysis - The report presents charts on PTA production, operating rate, and ending inventory, with data from iFinD and Ningzheng Futures [19][22]. PTA Consumption Situation Analysis - The report shows charts on PTA export volume and growth rate, monthly production of polyester filament and staple fiber, operating rates of polyester chip, polyester filament, and staple fiber, and the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with data from iFinD and Ningzheng Futures [25][27][29]. Cost - Profit Analysis - The report shows a chart on PTA spot price in East China, PTA cash - flow cost, and PTA profit, with data from iFinD and Ningzheng Futures [32].

期货研究报告 2025年11月17日 生猪期货：震荡偏弱，空头主导 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周生猪现货价呈"企稳 - 回落 - 收窄 - 反弹"的震荡偏弱走势，整体重心 下移，均价从11.97/公斤逐步波动调整，虽周末出现小幅反弹，但未能改变全周偏弱的整体格局，且同比仍 处于大幅下跌区间。国家统计局及期货机构数据显示，11月上旬生猪（外三元）价格环比下降1.7%，全周现 货均价围绕11.7-12.0元/公斤区间波动，年末供应压力与季节性需求预期的矛盾成为市场核心矛盾点。 供应端方面，进入下旬后养殖场出栏积极性普遍较高，尤其集团场受进度偏慢影响存在一定追赶计划， 加之部分压栏大猪逐步流入市场，带动出栏均重整体上移，市场猪肉供应呈现充足态势。需求端方面，屠 宰企业因利润空间有限暂无主动入库意愿，加之下游市场产品消化速度依然缓慢，因此屠宰量波动有限。 随着气温下降，南方地区腌腊需求将小幅启动，对消费形成一定支撑，但提振力度预计有限，难以完全对 冲供应压力，市场短期仍以偏弱震荡为主。 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has dropped below 50%, putting pressure on precious metals, with potential for mid - term high - level oscillations [1] - The price of natural rubber is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - The rebar futures market is expected to oscillate in a wide range at a low level [4] - The iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5] - The coking coal price is expected to oscillate [6] - The LH2601 contract for live pigs may decline in the short term and oscillate at the bottom [7] - The soybean meal 01 contract will oscillate in a range with a rising price center [7] - The palm oil price will oscillate at a low level [8] - The long - term treasury bond market will oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term [8] - Silver is under short - term pressure but bullish in the medium term [9] - The crude oil price is expected to oscillate weakly [9] - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly [10] - The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11] - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [12] - The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13] Summary by Product Precious Metals - **Gold**: On November 17, Fed officials had different views on a December interest - rate cut. The market probability of a December rate cut dropped below 50%, putting pressure on precious metals. Mid - term high - level oscillations are possible. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1] - **Silver**: Although there are rumors about Trump's tariff rebate, the change in the Fed's December interest - rate cut is still uncertain, pressuring precious metals. Silver is under short - term pressure but bullish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the divergence between gold and silver [9] Agricultural Products - **Rubber**: Thai raw rubber prices are 56.6 Thai baht/kg. Hainan's glue - to - whole - milk price is 16,100 yuan/ton. Due to cold weather in Yunnan and the rainy season in southern Thailand, raw material prices may remain high. However, with expected increases in overseas ship arrivals, insufficient terminal demand, and expected declines in downstream enterprise开工, natural rubber is in a seasonal inventory accumulation state. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - **Soybean Meal**: Imported soybean supply is sufficient, oil refinery operating rates are slowly rising, and crushing volumes are high. Demand is relatively stable, and soybean meal inventory is increasing, limiting price increases. The domestic breeding industry is weak, which may limit demand growth. The 01 contract will oscillate in a range with a rising price center [7] - **Palm Oil**: From November 1 to 15, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 15.5%. Foreign quotes are low, and the price - performance ratio has improved. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it will oscillate at a low level [8] - **Live Pigs**: As of November 17, the average weight of live pigs for slaughter is 123.53 kg. The weekly slaughter rate is 33.61%. Farmers want to raise prices, but terminal demand is insufficient, and slaughterhouses are not enthusiastic about purchasing. The price is under pressure. The LH2601 contract has short - term downward pressure and will oscillate at the bottom [7] Industrial Metals - **Rebar**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 82.81%, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate is 88.8%. Steel mills' profitability is declining, and production is decreasing. Demand is also falling due to the off - season. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is decreasing. There may be policy benefits in December, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [4] - **Iron Ore**: The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills is 9,076.01 tons, and the daily consumption is 292.63 tons. The impact of the hurricane has ended, and the shipping end is stable. Demand may decline seasonally. Inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5] - **Coking Coal**: The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is 71.64%. Supply is still tight in China. Coke production is declining, and downstream procurement has slowed down. The futures market is under pressure, but the fundamentals still provide support, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As of November 14, the number of US online drilling oil wells increased by 3 compared to the previous week. The attack on a Russian oil storage facility has raised supply concerns. However, the overall supply is excessive, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [9] - **Asphalt**: The weekly output is 51.4 tons, and the inventory is decreasing. Terminal demand is weak, and downstream purchasing is cautious. Refinery profits have been boosted, suppressing the asphalt price, which is expected to oscillate weakly [10] - **Methanol**: The market price in Jiangsu is 2,047 yuan/ton. The domestic operating rate is high, downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11] - **Soda Ash**: The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1,263 yuan/ton. Production is slightly decreasing, and inventory is relatively stable. The glass industry's operating rate is slightly decreasing. The soda ash market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [12] - **PVC**: The price of SG - 5 type in East China is 4,520 yuan/ton. Production is expected to remain high, but profits are poor. Domestic demand is stable, and foreign trade growth is limited. Inventory is expected to increase, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13]

Key Points of the Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed has internal differences regarding a potential December interest rate cut. The end of the US government shutdown has led to simultaneous declines in US stocks, bonds, and the exchange - rate, increasing market divergence. Gold is short - term bullish and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium term [1]. - The natural rubber market is currently in a state of mixed long and short factors. Prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations due to factors such as supply disruptions and inventory pressure [2]. - The manganese silicon market is expected to fluctuate around the low - end of cost valuation in the short term, with attention on raw material cost adjustments [4]. - The coking coal market is in a stalemate between long and short forces. The main contract has seen a pullback at the upper edge of the previous oscillation range, and future supply conditions should be closely monitored [5]. - The steel market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand. Steel prices are expected to continue narrow - range oscillations in the short term, with limited upside and downside potential [6]. - The live hog market's LH2601 contract still faces downward pressure in the short term, with bottom - end oscillations and range - bound trading [6]. - The soybean meal 01 contract is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation between 3030 - 3090 in the short term [7]. - The palm oil market has limited short - term supply - demand contradictions and is mainly for range - bound trading [8]. - The long - term treasury bond market is expected to have a slightly bullish medium - term oscillation, with attention on the stock - bond seesaw effect [9]. - The silver market is short - term bearish but bullish in the medium term, with attention on the divergence between gold and silver [9]. - The crude oil market is expected to operate in a weak oscillation, with supply - surplus concerns being the core factor determining price direction [10]. - The PTA market is expected to be range - bound, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - The methanol 01 contract is expected to have a short - term weak oscillation, and it is recommended to wait for further stabilization [12]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to have a short - term oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [13]. - The L2601 contract of plastic is expected to have a short - term oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [14]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Gold - The Fed has internal differences on a December rate cut. The end of the government shutdown has increased market divergence. Gold is short - term bullish and medium - term high - level oscillating. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index [1]. Natural Rubber - Thai raw rubber prices are stable, and domestic inventories show different trends. The domestic production area is entering a reduction period, and overseas rainfall has affected supply. However, high inventory and a large price difference with synthetic rubber restrict price increases. Short - term price range - bound oscillations are expected [2]. Manganese Silicon - The national capacity utilization rate and daily output of manganese silicon have increased slightly. Cost is in a stalemate, demand support is weakening, and supply is expected to remain high. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate around the low - end of cost valuation [4]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate and production of coking coal mines have increased. The market is in a long - short stalemate due to supply - side support and energy supply concerns. The main contract has pulled back, and actual supply should be monitored [5]. Rebar - This week, rebar production, inventory, and demand have all decreased. The steel market has weak supply and demand, with a larger inventory decline and cost support. Short - term narrow - range oscillations are expected [6]. Live Hogs - The national live hog price has continued to decline. Weak terminal demand, low slaughterhouse acquisition enthusiasm, and high breeding - end sales pressure have led to downward pressure on the LH2601 contract [6]. Soybean Meal - Imported soybean supply is sufficient, oil - mill开机率 is rising, and demand is stable. Inventory is increasing, restricting price increases. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term [7]. Palm Oil - Indian palm oil imports have decreased significantly in October due to high inventory. The domestic market is in an adjustment phase with limited supply - demand contradictions and is mainly for range - bound trading [8]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The growth of social financing in October has slowed, and the marginal effect of monetary policy easing has weakened. Macro - control may shift to promoting consumption. The bond market is slightly bullish in the medium term, with attention on the stock - bond seesaw [9]. Silver - The end of the US government shutdown has reduced risk appetite. Silver is short - term bearish and medium - term bullish, with attention on the divergence between gold and silver [9]. Crude Oil - The IEA has further raised the supply - surplus pressure forecast. The market is concerned about supply surplus, and prices are expected to operate in a weak oscillation [10]. PTA - PTA production has decreased, polyester inventory has decreased, and demand is fair. With crude oil oscillating weakly, PTA is expected to be range - bound, and waiting and seeing is advisable [12]. Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is expected to have a short - term weak oscillation, and waiting for further stabilization is recommended [12]. Soda Ash - The price of soda ash has risen slightly, production has decreased, and inventory has changed slightly. The glass market has weak demand. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing or short - selling on rebounds is recommended [13]. Plastic - The price of LLDPE has increased slightly, production has increased, and inventory has risen. Downstream demand is weak. The L2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing or short - selling on rebounds is recommended [14].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The "tariff refund" plan is expected to greatly stimulate US consumption and the economy, which is positive for silver. The upward trend of Shanghai silver is further established, and it is recommended to pay attention to the possible divergence between the medium - term trends of silver and gold. Silver is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [1]. - The domestic rubber production area is entering the reduction period, and overseas production areas are affected by rain. The raw material prices are firm, but the demand side lacks substantial benefits. The price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber is large, restricting the increase of natural rubber prices. It is expected to fluctuate with a bearish bias [2]. - The cost of ferrosilicon is rising, but the market supply - demand relationship is loose. The price upward drive is insufficient, and the futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost [4]. - The demand for steel in the off - season is weak, and the supply and demand in the steel market are both weak, but the inventory pressure is not large. The short - term steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [4]. - The supply and demand of coking coal are both weak, and the decline in hot metal production suppresses real consumption. The futures price is oscillating at a low level, and short - term range operation is recommended [5]. - The demand for terminal pork products is insufficient, and the market supply exceeds demand. The short - term LH2601 contract is under downward pressure and will oscillate at the bottom [5]. - The domestic palm oil market is in an adjustment stage, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Range trading is recommended [6]. - The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the oil mill operating rate is slowly rising, and the demand is relatively stable. The short - term 01 contract of soybean meal is expected to oscillate narrowly in the range of 3030 - 3090 [8]. - The capital market is continuously loose, which is positive for short - term bonds. The bond market is expected to oscillate with a slightly bullish bias in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [8]. - The dovish may gradually dominate the Fed, and the US dollar index is lackluster. Gold is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [9]. - OPEC estimates that the global oil market has shifted from a deficit to a surplus, and there are concerns about oversupply in the crude oil market. It is expected to fluctuate with a bearish bias [10]. - The polyester inventory is decreasing, the PTA rigid demand is okay, and the inventory accumulation pressure in the first half of November is relieved. PTA is expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [11]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Silver - The "tariff refund" plan proposed by Trump may cost up to $600 billion, far exceeding the expected tariff revenue of about $30 billion. This plan is expected to boost US consumption and the economy, which is positive for silver [1]. Rubber - In the first 10 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 13.8% year - on - year, and in October, exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year but decreased by 4.1% month - on - month. Malaysia's natural rubber production in Q3 2025 decreased by 11.3% year - on - year. The domestic production area is entering the reduction period, and overseas production areas are affected by rain, but the demand side lacks substantial benefits [2]. Ferrosilicon - The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 35.48%, a decrease of 0.46% from last week; the daily average output is 16,115 tons, a decrease of 2.62% from last week. The cost is rising, but the oversupply situation makes it difficult to increase the price [4]. Rebar - On November 12, the domestic steel market showed mixed trends. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 seismic rebar in 31 major cities was 3,232 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The demand in the off - season is weak, and the supply and demand are both weak, but the inventory pressure is not large [4]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants is 37.4%, a decrease of 0.18% from the previous period; the daily output of clean coal is 274,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period; the clean coal inventory is 3.008 million tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from the previous period. The supply recovery is slow, and the real demand is declining [5]. Live Pigs - On November 12, the average price of pork in national agricultural product wholesale markets was 17.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous day. The demand for terminal products is insufficient, and the market supply exceeds demand [5]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's 2025 crude palm oil production is expected to increase by 3.4% year - on - year to a record 20 million tons. The export volume from November 1 - 10 decreased by 49.53% compared with the same period last month [6]. Soybean Meal - The total transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was 244,900 tons, a decrease of 69,200 tons from the previous trading day. The operating rate of oil mills increased by 2.31% to 59.12%. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the demand is relatively stable [8]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties all declined. Overnight varieties dropped 9.3BP to 1.415%, 7 - day varieties dropped 2.7BP to 1.474%, 14 - day varieties dropped 1.8BP to 1.5%, and 1 - month varieties dropped 0.2BP to 1.523%. The capital market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds [8]. Gold - A dovish candidate may be nominated to replace Powell as the Fed chairman and hopes for a larger - scale interest rate cut in December. The US dollar index is lackluster, which is positive for gold [9]. Crude Oil - OPEC maintains its forecast for global oil demand in 2025 and 2026. The OECD commercial inventory increased by 60 million barrels in September 2025. OPEC+ crude oil production decreased in October. OPEC estimates that the global oil market has shifted from a deficit to a surplus [10]. PTA - The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 14 - 24 days. The polyester load operation rebounds unexpectedly, and the PTA rigid demand is okay. The PTA operating rate decreases, and the inventory accumulation pressure in the first half of November is relieved [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economic downward pressure in the US is increasing, raising the probability of an interest - rate cut in December, but there are still internal differences within the Fed. Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium - term [1]. - Investors are evaluating the impact of US sanctions on Russia, and the international oil price has risen for three consecutive days. However, concerns about oversupply in the oil market limit price increases, and oil prices are expected to run in a volatile manner [1]. - The US government shutdown is about to end, risk appetite has increased. Silver has broken out of the narrow - range oscillation range, with short - term correction pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there is a divergence between the medium - term trends of silver and gold [3]. - The monetary policy remains in a loose orientation, which supports the bond market in the long - term. However, due to factors such as liquidity easing, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market bond trading, the operation of the bond market becomes more difficult, and it is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [3]. - The national hog price adjusted weakly and steadily. The SPPOMA data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10, 2025 decreased compared to the same period last month. Palm oil prices are expected to have room for further increase, and short - term long positions can be considered [5]. - The domestic methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 2120 level, and it is recommended to wait and see for further stabilization [7]. - The short - term short - fiber is expected to fluctuate following the cost side and run in a volatile manner [7]. - The domestic PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 4625 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to run in a volatile manner in the short - term, with the lower support at the 1205 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on corrections [9]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to run weakly in a volatile manner due to weak supply - demand drivers [10][11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - According to ADP statistics, from October 1 - 25, the US private sector lost an average of 11,250 jobs every two weeks, with a total loss of 45,000 jobs in the month, the largest monthly decline since March 2023. The US economic downward pressure increases the probability of an interest - rate cut in December, but there are internal differences within the Fed. The US dollar index has weak upward momentum, and gold is volatile and bullish in the short - term and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium - term [1]. Crude Oil - A Reuters survey of five analysts shows that as of the week of November 7, US crude oil inventories increased by about 1.2 million barrels, with an estimated range of a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 6 million barrels; US gasoline inventories decreased by 2.6 million barrels, with an estimated range of a decrease of 1.2 - 4 million barrels. Investors are evaluating the impact of US sanctions on Russia, and the expectation of the end of the US government shutdown has led to three consecutive days of oil price increases. However, concerns about oversupply in the oil market limit price increases, and oil prices are expected to run in a volatile manner. The OPEC and IEA November "Oil Market Monthly Reports" will be released on November 12 and 13 respectively [1]. Silver - The US Senate passed the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act", taking a key step to end the government shutdown. The bill will provide funds for the federal government until January 30 next year, revoke some lay - off measures during the shutdown, and temporarily prevent further lay - offs. The US House of Representatives plans to vote on the Senate - passed temporary appropriation bill on Wednesday. The end of the government shutdown has increased risk appetite. Silver has broken out of the narrow - range oscillation range, with short - term correction pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there is a divergence between the medium - term trends of silver and gold [3]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report states that in the next step, a moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented to keep social financing conditions relatively loose, while continuing to improve the monetary policy framework and strengthening the implementation and transmission of monetary policy. The monetary policy remains in a loose orientation, which supports the bond market in the long - term. The central bank's open - market bond trading and continuous short - term liquidity injection are both positive for the bond market. However, due to factors such as liquidity easing, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market bond trading, the operation of the bond market becomes more difficult, and it is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [3]. Hog - According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on November 11, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.57, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 127.67, up 0.01 point from the previous day. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.11 yuan/kg, down 0.1% from the previous day. The national hog price adjusted weakly and steadily. The large - scale enterprises' slaughter progress was a bit slow and still under pressure, while the slaughter of large - weight hogs by small farmers increased, and the terminal demand was insufficient. The supply exceeded the demand, and the price mainly adjusted weakly. The LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short - term and will oscillate at the bottom. The breeding side can hedge in a timely manner according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. Soybean Meal - According to Mysteel statistics, on the previous trading day, the total sales volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 314,100 tons, an increase of 120,500 tons from the previous trading day. Among them, the spot sales volume was 125,100 tons, an increase of 39,500 tons from the previous trading day, and the far - month basis sales volume was 189,000 tons, an increase of 81,000 tons from the previous trading day. The operating rate of the national dynamic full - sample oil mills was 53.51%, a decrease of 2.55% from the previous day. Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the operating rate of oil mills is slowly recovering, and the crushing volume is at a relatively high level, while the demand is relatively stable. The increase in soybean meal inventory limits the upward space of spot prices. The purchasing sentiment of downstream feed enterprises is average, and they mainly replenish inventory based on existing inventory levels. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in a narrow range between 3030 - 3090 in the short - term [4]. Palm Oil - The SPPOMA data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10, 2025 decreased compared to the same period last month. The implementation of Canada's clean - fuel regulations and local government blending policies has led to a rise in rapeseed oil prices, driving up palm oil prices. Domestically, the basis prices in various regions, especially in South China, have increased rapidly, and the market trading is light, mainly fulfilling previous contracts. Palm oil prices are expected to have room for further increase, and short - term long positions can be considered [5]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 88,800 tons, an increase of 64,900 tons from the previous week. The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2060 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable. The domestic weekly methanol production capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, an increase of 1.18%. The 700,000 - ton/year methanol plant of Yulin Kaiyue is expected to resume operation this week. The total downstream production capacity utilization rate was 74.84%, a decrease of 0.43% from the previous week. The inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.5171 million tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous week. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons from the previous week. The domestic methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 2120 level, and it is recommended to wait and see for further stabilization [7]. Short - fiber - The production of Chinese polyester short - fiber this cycle was 167,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5200 tons, with a growth rate of 3.21%. The average comprehensive production capacity utilization rate during this cycle was 88.37%, a week - on - week increase of 2.74%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester short - fiber factories on the previous trading day was 41.96%, a decrease of 28.51% from the previous trading day. Supply has increased while demand has remained flat, with a slight inventory build - up this week. After the sales - to - production ratio reached a high, it declined, but the overall inventory pressure is not large. The short - term short - fiber is expected to fluctuate following the cost side and run in a volatile manner [7]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC was 4510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PVC production capacity utilization rate was 80.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.49%. The PVC social inventory was 1.0352 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13%. The average profit of national calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises was - 769 yuan/ton, and the average profit of national ethylene - based PVC production enterprises was - 465 yuan/ton. The operating rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises was 39.4%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week. The domestic PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 4625 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - duty soda ash was 1264 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable. The weekly production of soda ash was 746,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.43%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.7142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%. The operating rate of float glass was 75.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points. The national average price of float glass was 1150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million weight cases, a week - on - week decrease of 4.03%. The domestic soda ash market is expected to run in a volatile manner in the short - term, with the lower support at the 1205 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on corrections [9]. Synthetic Rubber - As of November 11, the price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 6975 yuan/ton, and the price of cis - polybutadiene rubber of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,400 yuan/ton. As of November 11, the weekly average profit of the C4 extraction process was 237 yuan/ton. Based on the butadiene price, the static cost of cis - polybutadiene rubber was estimated to be 8500 yuan/ton. On November 10, the latest market data released by the Passenger Car Association showed that the retail sales volume of the national passenger car market in October reached 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.1%. The raw material side is still under pressure from large domestic supply. On the demand side, tire enterprises still face shipment pressure, and foreign trade orders are less than expected. Some enterprises plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance in November, which will restrict the improvement of overall production capacity utilization. There is a lack of substantial positive factors. The synthetic rubber market is expected to run weakly in a volatile manner [10][11].

Group 1: Overall Information - The report is an early - morning assessment on various commodities and financial products released on November 11, 2025 by the Investment Consulting Center of Ningzheng Futures Co., Ltd. [1][2][3] Group 2: Commodity - Specific Analyses Iron Ore - From November 3rd to 9th, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 2769.3 thousand tons, a decrease of 544.8 thousand tons compared to the previous period; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2741.2 thousand tons, a decrease of 477.2 thousand tons; and the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1525.8 thousand tons, a decrease of 60.1 thousand tons. Iron ore shipments are at a high level in the same period of history, iron - water production continues to decline, steel - mill profitability shrinks again, and the demand for iron ore continues to weaken. It is expected that the iron - ore price will run weakly. It is recommended to short the Iron Ore 2601 contract on rallies. [1] Gold - Fed Governor Milan supports further interest - rate cuts to prevent the weakening of the US economy and advocates a faster rate - cut pace than the traditional 25 - basis - point cuts. San Francisco Fed President Daly said that the US economy may be experiencing a decline in demand, but inflation related to tariffs is currently under control. The US government shutdown is expected to end this week. Fed officials are open to rate cuts, but there are still internal differences. The US dollar index has limited upward momentum. Precious metals may fluctuate with a slight upward bias in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term. [1] Rebar - On November 10th, the domestic steel - market price fluctuated weakly. The ex - factory tax - included price of common billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 10 yuan to 2940 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3223 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The coking - coal supply and demand remain in a tight - balance state, and coke has started the fourth round of price increases. The coal - coke market remains strong, while the prices of iron ore and scrap steel are weak. The demand for steel in the off - season continues to be weak, and the number of loss - making and production - reducing steel mills is increasing. The steel price is restricted by weak demand, but due to high costs and an expanding loss - making area for steel mills, the decline in steel prices may also be limited. In the short term, the steel price may adjust within a narrow range. [3] Coke - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants across the country is - 22 yuan/ton; in Shanxi, the average profit for quasi - first - grade coke is - 20 yuan/ton, in Shandong it is 39 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia it is - 78 yuan/ton, and in Hebei it is 19 yuan/ton. The fourth round of price increases has started, and coking profits have slightly recovered, but due to environmental - protection production restrictions in Hebei, the overall coke production has declined. On the demand side, some steel mills in Tangshan and other places are restricted in production due to environmental - protection requirements, and some steel mills in North and Northwest China are under profit pressure and have actively reduced production and carried out maintenance. The iron - water production continues to decline. Overall, the profits of both upstream and downstream of coke are not good. Considering the off - season and environmental - protection factors, both supply and demand are weak. The cost support for coke is relatively strong. With the continuous procurement enthusiasm of steel mills, the fourth - round price increase still has the expectation of being implemented. It is expected that the coke price will fluctuate. [4] Live Pigs - On November 10th, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.58, an increase of 0.34 points from last Friday, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 127.66, an increase of 0.39 points from last Friday. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural - product wholesale market was 18.13 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.5% from last Friday. The slaughter rhythm of live pigs by farmers has slightly slowed down, and farmers still have the sentiment of resisting price cuts when selling pigs, but the terminal demand fails to keep up. Slaughtering enterprises can smoothly purchase pigs, and there is insufficient upward momentum. In the short term, there is still downward pressure, and the price will fluctuate at the bottom. Farmers can hedge according to the slaughter rhythm. [5] Palm Oil - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) reported that the palm - oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of October increased by 4.4% from the previous month to 2.46 million tons. In October, the production of crude palm oil in Malaysia increased by 11.02% from the previous month to 2.04 million tons, and the export volume increased by 18.58% to 1.69 million tons. The MPOB report is basically in line with expectations, and the negative factors have been priced in. However, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from the 1st to the 10th decreased significantly month - on - month, suppressing the market. Concerns arise due to poor exports from the producing areas. Attention should be paid to the production situation in November. If the production - reduction expectation can be realized, the inventory pressure will be relieved. In the short term, it is expected that the palm - oil price will fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. [5] Soybeans - In the 44th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased, while the soybean - meal inventory decreased. The soybean inventory was 7.6195 million tons, an increase of 511.6 thousand tons or 7.20% from the previous week, and an increase of 2.0156 million tons or 35.97% compared to the same period last year. The soybean - meal inventory was 998.6 thousand tons, a decrease of 154.4 thousand tons or 13.39% from the previous week, and an increase of 191.1 thousand tons or 23.67% compared to the same period last year. The selling price of new domestic soybeans is rising steadily, and the market acquisition enthusiasm is high. Grain - trading enterprises are reluctant to sell, but the price is suppressed to some extent by downstream demand. In the short term, the price of domestic soybeans (Bean 1) will fluctuate strongly at a high level. Supported by the macro - trade sentiment, the price of imported soybeans (Bean 2) will fluctuate with an upward bias. Attention should be paid to macro - news. [6] Short - Term Treasury Bonds - Most money - market interest rates have risen. The weighted average interest rate of the 1 - day inter - bank pledged repurchase increased by 15.21 basis points to 1.4842%, reaching a new high in more than a month; the 7 - day rate increased by 8.63 basis points to 1.4993%, the 14 - day rate increased by 3.23 basis points to 1.5042%, and the 1 - month rate increased by 0.45 basis points to 1.4845%. Tightening of the capital market is negative for the short - end bond market. The central bank's open - market bond trading and continuous short - term liquidity injection are positive for the bond market. With loose liquidity, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market bond trading, the operation of the bond market becomes more difficult. In the medium term, the bond market will fluctuate. [7] Silver - After a 40 - day government shutdown, the US Senate passed a procedural vote on a temporary appropriation bill to end the shutdown, but the Senate has not scheduled a final vote time, and the bill still needs to be voted on by the House of Representatives. It is possible that the US government shutdown will end before this weekend. The approaching end of the government shutdown has significantly boosted risk appetite. The silver price has risen sharply. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a divergence in the medium - term trends of silver and gold. The silver price will fluctuate with an upward bias. [7] Crude Oil - The EIA predicts that the global liquid - fuel production will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and by another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. Non - OPEC+ countries will increase production by 2 million barrels per day in 2025, 300 thousand barrels per day higher than the previous forecast, and by 700 thousand barrels per day in 2026. OPEC+ crude - oil production is expected to increase by 500 thousand barrels per day in 2025 and by 600 thousand barrels per day in 2026. The average US crude - oil production in 2025 and 2026 is predicted to reach 13.5 million barrels per day, with the 2026 forecast increased by 200 thousand barrels per day compared to last month. The floating oil storage in the Asia - Pacific region reached a peak of 53 million barrels at the end of October, the highest in three years. The news that the US government shutdown is expected to end has injected some optimism into the market, and the crude - oil price rose overnight. Overall, the crude - oil price will still face downward pressure in the remaining period of the year. Attention should be paid to changes in Russia's production and exports. The crude - oil price will be treated with a weak - fluctuation view. [8] Rubber - The price of raw - material rubber latex in Thailand is 56.3 Thai baht/kg (stable), and the price of cup lump is not available. In Hainan, the price of rubber latex for producing whole - milk rubber and concentrated latex is 16,100 yuan/ton. In the third quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement - tire market decreased by 0.6% year - on - year to 63.984 million pieces. Thailand's rubber production in September 2025 was 451.5 thousand tons, a decrease of 1.78% year - on - year, and the cumulative production from January to September was 3.2425 million tons, a cumulative increase of 3.11%. Thailand's rubber production in 2025 is expected to increase by 1% to 4.86 million tons. The natural - rubber inventory has increased this period, and the domestic raw - material inventory is at a low level. Since September, the export volume of passenger - car tires to the EU has returned to the 2023 level. With the gradual implementation of the EU's "anti - dumping and counter - vailing" policies, the shipping pressure on domestic enterprises has further increased. At the same time, tire enterprises still face shipment pressure, which will restrict the improvement of overall capacity utilization. Overall, there is a lack of substantial positive factors on the demand side, especially the decline in the synthetic - rubber price, which has widened the price difference and affected the natural - rubber market. The rubber price will be treated with a weak - fluctuation view. [9] PX - The operating rates of PX in Asia and China have increased to high levels. The domestic PX operating rate has reached 89.8% (+2.8%), and the Asian PX operating rate has reached 80.2% (+2.1%). Domestically, it is mainly due to the restart of a maintenance device at Fujia Dahua. Overseas, the overall operation of devices is stable. The maintenance device of FCFC has restarted as planned, and the restart of a 400 - thousand - ton maintenance device of Idemitsu, originally scheduled for mid - November, has been postponed to mid - December. The overall PX supply is stable. In the short term, the PTA operating rate is maintained, and the terminal orders in October were better than expected. The polyester operating rate is maintained in the short term, and there is still support on the PX demand side. However, the PX supply - demand situation is expected to be relatively loose in November, and there is insufficient upward momentum. [10][11] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The weekly domestic methanol capacity utilization rate is 87.79%, an increase of 1.18%. The 700 - thousand - ton/year methanol device of Yulin Kaiyue is expected to end maintenance this week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate is 74.84%, a weekly decrease of 0.43%. The inventory of sampled methanol ports in China is 1.5171 million tons, a weekly increase of 10.6 thousand tons; the inventory of sampled methanol production enterprises in China is 386.4 thousand tons, a weekly increase of 10.4 thousand tons; the orders to be delivered of sampled enterprises are 221.1 thousand tons, a weekly increase of 5.5 thousand tons. The domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand is relatively stable. The methanol port inventory is accumulating slightly. The提货 performance along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu is weak, and the demand in Zhejiang is stable at the rigid - demand level. The inland methanol market is weakening, and enterprise auctions are成交 smoothly. The basis of the port methanol market is stable and weak, and the negotiation and成交 are okay. It is expected that the methanol 01 contract will fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at 2125. It is recommended to wait and see. [11] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash across the country is 1264 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The weekly soda - ash production is 746.8 thousand tons, a decrease of 1.43%. The total inventory of soda - ash manufacturers is 1.7142 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.72%. The operating rate of float glass is 75.92%, a weekly decrease of 0.43 percentage points. The average price of float glass across the country is 1153 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The total inventory of sampled float - glass enterprises across the country is 63.136 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.03%. The float - glass operation is relatively stable, and the inventory is decreasing. The shipment of enterprises in Shahe has slowed down, the purchasing intention of industry players has weakened, and the sales of dealers are mediocre. The price in the Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan area has also decreased. The domestic soda - ash market is fluctuating strongly. The price of light - grade soda ash is rising, the supply is slightly decreasing, enterprises are receiving new orders well, downstream demand is stable, and low - price restocking transactions are taking place. It is expected that the soda - ash 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with the lower support at 1215. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on pullbacks. [12] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East - China drawing - grade polypropylene is 6462 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The polypropylene capacity utilization rate is 79.44%, an increase of 0.21% from the previous day. The average operating rate of downstream industries is 53.14%, a weekly increase of 0.52 percentage points. The commercial inventory of polypropylene is 893.1 thousand tons, a weekly increase of 19.1 thousand tons. The polyolefin inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is 720 thousand tons, an increase of 55 thousand tons compared to last week. The new maintenance of polypropylene on the supply side has offset the previous production expansion. The supply is abundant, the commercial inventory is increasing, downstream orders are slightly improving, the receiving enthusiasm is average, and the demand is slowly following up. The crude - oil price on the cost side is relatively stable. It is expected that the PP 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with the upper pressure at 6530. It is recommended to wait and see for further stabilization. [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders in Busan, the contradiction in the Sino-US trade field has been paused, and the economic risk aversion sentiment has slightly eased. The mid-term trends of gold and silver may diverge, with gold potentially oscillating at a high level and silver possibly having a catch-up rally [2][9][26] - The US government is still in a shutdown, making it difficult to obtain the latest economic data. The Fed's disagreement on a December interest rate cut has increased, adding uncertainty to the future interest rate cut rhythm and bringing volatility factors to the precious metal market [3][14] - The offshore RMB exchange rate mainly follows the US dollar index passively. Although the RMB has recently faced increased depreciation pressure, the trend of moderate appreciation remains unchanged. Currently, the exchange rate issue has not had a significant impact on the gold market [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, trade negotiations have slightly eased, and risk aversion sentiment has weakened. The market is currently pricing in two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Gold and silver may rise again under the expectation of consecutive Fed interest rate cuts, but whether their trends will diverge needs continuous attention [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The US government shutdown has a greater-than-expected impact on the US economy, causing long-term damage to the government's efficient operation and slowing down Q4 GDP growth. The tourism and leisure industry is being hit hard [12] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs announced the suspension of multiple export control measures from now until November 10, 2026, and the resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US enterprises and the import of US logs starting from November 10 [12] - Some Fed officials are worried about further interest rate cuts due to high inflation levels and the lack of key price data caused by the government shutdown [14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - Due to the US government shutdown, it is difficult to track the US economy. The preliminary values of the US manufacturing, service, and composite PMIs in October all rebounded from September and were better than expected. The market has fully priced in two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Fed for the rest of the year [15] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Chinese and US leaders held a meeting, and both sides reached a consensus on important economic and trade issues. The EU listed Chinese enterprises in its 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and China urged the EU to stop this action [18] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The US manufacturing, service, and composite PMIs in October all rebounded and were better than expected. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increases in Q1 next year. Crude oil prices rebounded, and copper prices rose due to supply shortages and Fed interest rate cut expectations [19] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate mainly follows the US dollar index passively. The long-term weakening trend of the US dollar supports precious metals. The RMB is in a slow appreciation trend, and its impact on the gold market is limited [23] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the Sino-US trade conflict has been paused, and risk aversion sentiment has eased. After COMEX gold reached a high of 4398, precious metals have corrected significantly. In the mid-term, the trends of gold and silver may diverge, with gold potentially oscillating at a high level and silver possibly having a catch-up rally [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the synthetic rubber industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to remain weak due to supply pressure from domestic raw material production increases and lackluster demand. Tire companies face shipment pressure, with under - performing foreign trade orders. In November, some companies plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance, which will limit the overall capacity utilization rate. Key factors to track include the bottoming point and timing of butadiene prices, the price spread between natural and synthetic rubber, and the performance of natural rubber after the harvest season [2][28] 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The synthetic rubber market showed a weak trend. The 01 contract opened at 11,125 yuan/ton in October, reached a high of 11,285 yuan/ton, a low of 10,175 yuan/ton, and closed at 10,550 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 560 yuan or 5.04% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price - Influencing Factors 2.1 Butadiene Capacity Expansion - From 2021 - 2025, China's butadiene capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with the growth rate first decreasing and then increasing. In 2025, domestic capacity expansion is concentrated, with the capacity growth rate reaching 14.16%, a five - year high. By the end of 2025, China's total butadiene capacity will reach 7.577 million tons/year [5][6] 2.2 High Butadiene Operating Rate and Import Growth - In October, butadiene production was 457,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.49%. From January to October, production was 4.472 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.46%. The capacity utilization rate in October was 66.48%. In September 2025, butadiene imports were 56,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.09%. From January to September, imports were 393,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.8% [7][8][10] 2.3 High Growth in Butadiene Imports - The import volume of butadiene has been growing rapidly, as shown by the data from January - September and September 2025 [10] 2.4 Pressure on Butadiene Prices and Profits - The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples fluctuated slightly this period, with a 1.67% week - on - week decrease. The theoretical production profits of different butadiene production processes decreased. As of October 29, the weekly average profit of the C4 extraction process was 1,265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 578 yuan/ton from the previous period [13] 2.5 Sufficient Synthetic Rubber Capacity Expansion and High Production Growth - New synthetic rubber capacities have been put into production, such as Yulong Petrochemical's 150,000 tons/year nickel/neodymium - based cis - butadiene rubber capacity and Zhejiang Petrochemical's 100,000 - ton device. In September, synthetic rubber production was 774,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.50%. From January to September, production was 6.616 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.20% [15][17] 2.6 High Growth in Imports of Natural and Synthetic Rubber (Including Latex) - In September 2025, China imported 742,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 20.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. From January to September, imports were 6.115 million tons, a 19.2% increase year - on - year [19] 2.7 Tire Production Growth Slows - In September 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 103.487 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. From January to September, production was 899.386 million pieces, a 1.5% increase year - on - year, far lower than the 9.59% growth rate in 2024. The export market growth rate declined, and the replacement market performed poorly [22][25] 2.8 Tire Inventory Needs to be Reduced and Operating Rate Increase is Limited - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53 percentage points. Tire finished - product inventory needs to be reduced [26] 2.9 Weak Supply - Demand Drivers and Synchronous Decline of Raw Materials and Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Due to weak supply - demand drivers, raw materials and cis - butadiene rubber prices declined synchronously, with butadiene having a larger and faster decline [27] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The synthetic rubber market is expected to remain weak due to supply pressure on the raw material side and lack of demand - side support. Key factors to monitor include the bottoming point and timing of butadiene prices, the price spread between natural and synthetic rubber, and the performance of natural rubber after the harvest season [28]