荡状态。 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 鸡蛋产业日报 2025-11-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3210 | 26 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -42470 | -9060 | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(1-5):(日,元/500千克) | -300 | ...

| | 11/25 待定 美国9月PPI | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 11/26 21:30 美国第三季度GDP修正值、10月份个人收入、支出及PCE价格指数 | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 免责声明 国债期货日报 2025/11/24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 项目 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.505 | 0.06% T主力成交量 | 79246 | -23755↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.890 | 0.03% TF主力成交量 | 46495 | -17953↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.460 | 0.01% TS主力成交量 | 23207 | -6065↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 115.760 | 0.15% TL主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 24, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5630, rising 0.50%. The inventory has rebounded rapidly, the output has continued to decline slightly at a high level, and the inventory has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end increased by 330,000 tons, and the iron - water demand has a seasonal decline overall. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - On November 24, the silicon - iron 2603 contract was reported at 5456, rising 0.04%. The weakening of coal has led to a correction in alloys. Market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid - demand replenishment, prices have declined, and the inventory in this period has decreased. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5,630.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5,456.00 yuan/ton, down 16.00 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract holding volume: 718,487.00 lots, down 32,735.00 lots; SF futures contract holding volume: 436,286.00 lots, down 12,267.00 lots [2]. - Manganese - silicon top 20 net holding volume: - 7,574.00 lots, down 181.00 lots; Silicon - iron top 20 net holding volume: - 10,992.00 lots, up 2,577.00 lots [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 62.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread: - 14.00 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 20,797.00 pieces, up 460.00 pieces; SF warehouse receipts: 9,039.00 pieces, up 763.00 pieces [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,450.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 0.00 yuan/ton, down 5,500.00 yuan; Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5,130.00 yuan/ton [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5,220.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average: 5,515.75 yuan/ton, down 63.25 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 236.00 yuan/ton, up 36.00 yuan [2]. - SM main contract basis: - 180.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port: 32.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98% in Northwest China): 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu): 880.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 4.263 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate: 39.13%, down 0.46%; Silicon - iron enterprise operating rate: 33.81%, down 1.03% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply: 196,910.00 tons, down 2,660.00 tons; Silicon - iron supply: 108,300.00 tons, down 800.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory: 363,000.00 tons, up 13,500.00 tons; Silicon - iron manufacturer inventory: 73,050.00 tons, down 8,310.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon inventory of national steel mills: 15.70 days, down 0.23 days; Silicon - iron inventory of national steel mills: 15.67 days, up 0.15 days [2]. - Manganese - silicon demand of five major steel types: 121,407.00 tons, up 2,818.00 tons; Silicon - iron demand of five major steel types: 19,543.00 tons, up 469.20 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 82.17%, down 0.62%; Blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 88.56%, down 0.26% [2]. - Crude steel output: 71.997 million tons, down 1.4931 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Foreign institutions generally predict that China's economy will maintain steady growth in 2026 with policy support. Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for China's export growth rate and real GDP growth rate [2]. - In October 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 143.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% [2]. - In October, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, the first single - month increase exceeding 10% this year [2]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development held a national urban renewal work promotion meeting, aiming to focus on four aspects: planning, funds, operation, and governance [2]. 3.7 Market Pricing - HeSteel Group's final price for silicon - manganese in November was 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [2]. - HeSteel's tender price for 75B silicon - iron in November was 5,680 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton higher than the previous round [2]. 3.8 Profit Situation - Inner Mongolia's spot profit for manganese - silicon: - 260 yuan/ton; Ningxia's spot profit for manganese - silicon: - 400 yuan/ton [2]. - Inner Mongolia's spot profit for silicon - iron: - 240 yuan/ton; Ningxia's spot profit for silicon - iron: - 470 yuan/ton [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 24, the JM2601 contract closed at 1096.5, down 1.48%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1550, equivalent to 1330 on the futures market. The macro - situation: the NDRC issued a notice on ensuring coal supply for power generation in 2026, weakening the market's expectations. Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate of mines has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, and the coking coal inventory of coal washing plants has increased for three consecutive weeks. The inventory is at a moderate level, and the total inventory shows a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [2]. - On November 24, the J2601 contract closed at 1632.5, up 0.03%. The fourth round of price increase for coke has been implemented in the spot market. Macro: in October 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 143.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the current pig iron output is 236.28 million tons, a decrease of 0.60 million tons, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants in the country is 19 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 1096.50, down 6.50; J main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 1632.50, up 18.00 [2]. - JM futures contract open interest (daily, lots): 859403.00, up 17120.00; J futures contract open interest (daily, lots): 49177.00, down 782.00 [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 JM contracts (daily, lots): - 106865.00, up 6957.00; net open interest of the top 20 J contracts (daily, lots): - 1532.00, up 150.00 [2]. - JM May - January contract spread (daily, yuan/ton): 83.00, down 2.50; J May - January contract spread (daily, yuan/ton): 149.50, down 14.00 [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts (daily, pieces): 0.00, unchanged; coke warehouse receipts (daily, pieces): 2070.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (daily, yuan/ton): 1000.00, unchanged; Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1885.00, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR, US dollars/wet ton): 162.50, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1670.00, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal (daily, yuan/ton): 1570.00, unchanged; Tianjin Port Grade I metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1770.00, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1780.00, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1670.00, unchanged [2]. - Medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi (daily, yuan/ton): 1610.00, unchanged; J main contract basis (daily, yuan/ton): 252.50, down 18.00 [2]. - Coking coal ex - factory price in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia: 1380.00, down 20.00; JM main contract basis (daily, yuan/ton): 513.50, up 6.50 [2]. Upstream Situation - The coking coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants (daily, million tons): 27.60, up 0.20; the coking coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants (weekly, million tons): 302.80, up 2.00 [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants (weekly, %): 0.38, unchanged; raw coal output (monthly, million tons): 40675.00, down 475.50 [2]. - Coal and lignite imports (monthly, million tons): 4174.00, down 426.00; average daily raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 193.40, up 1.50 [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports (weekly, million tons): 456.90, down 31.30; coke inventory at 18 ports (weekly, million tons): 253.40, down 6.10 [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises (weekly, million tons): 1038.19, down 30.78; total coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises (weekly, million tons): 65.29, up 7.14 [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly, million tons): 797.08, up 6.91; coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide (weekly, million tons): 622.34, down 0.06 [2]. - Available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises (weekly, days): 12.97, up 0.10; available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills (weekly, days): 11.05, down 0.01 [2]. Industry Situation - Coking coal imports (monthly, million tons): 1059.32, down 33.04; coke and semi - coke exports (monthly, million tons): 73.00, up 19.00 [2]. - Coking coal output (monthly, million tons): 3975.92, up 279.06; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises (weekly, %): 71.71, up 0.07 [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants (weekly, yuan/ton): 19.00, up 53.00 [2]. - Coke output (monthly, million tons): 4189.60, down 66.00 [2]. Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly, %): 82.17, down 0.62; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, %): 88.56, down 0.26 [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly, million tons): 7199.70, down 149.31 [2]. Industry News - Foreign institutions generally predict that China's economy will maintain steady growth with policy support in 2026. Morgan Stanley believes that China's economy will have moderate growth in 2026 under moderate easing policies, gradual re - balancing and restrained "anti - involution" measures. Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for China's export growth rate and real GDP growth rate [2]. - In October 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 143.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% [2]. - In October, the total social electricity consumption was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, the first single - month increase of more than 10% this year [2]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development held a national urban renewal work promotion meeting, emphasizing efforts in planning, funds, operation, and governance to promote urban renewal [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The BR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,550 in the short - term. As tire companies' device production resumes, their capacity utilization rate may recover this week, but overall demand growth is limited, and production control by enterprises will restrict the increase in capacity utilization [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,395 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10; the position volume of the main contract is 70,323, with a week - on - week increase of 2,076. The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is 20 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,960 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 20 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,450 yuan/ton, down 150 week - on - week; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,450 yuan/ton, down 100; in Shanghai is 10,450 yuan/ton, down 150; and from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,650 yuan/ton, down 100. The basis of synthetic rubber is 105 yuan/ton, down 10 week - on - week [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 62.56 dollars/barrel, down 0.82; WTI crude oil is at 58.06 dollars/barrel, down 0.94. Naphtha CFR Japan is at 573.13 dollars/ton, up 0.13. Northeast Asian ethylene price is 730 dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR China butadiene price is 770 dollars/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 7,350 yuan/ton, down 190. The weekly butadiene production capacity is 159,400 tons, up 3,800; the capacity utilization rate is 72.53%, down 0.49 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 39,800 tons, up 10,800. The operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is 54.26%, up 1.01 percentage points [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of butadiene rubber is 137,600 tons, up 7,200; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 72.64%, up 2.72 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 284 yuan/ton, down 352. The social inventory of butadiene rubber is 31,500 tons, up 700; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,630 tons, up 780; the trader's inventory is 4,880 tons, down 90. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 70.05%, down 3.63 percentage points; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 62.25%, down 2.25 percentage points. The monthly production of full - steel tires is 12.42 million, down 720,000; the monthly production of semi - steel tires is 51.68 million, down 8.57 million. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 0.69 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.86 days, up 0.5 [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, down 3.63 percentage points week - on - week and 10.40 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, down 2.25 percentage points week - on - week and up 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. Due to insufficient orders, some enterprises carried out maintenance or reduced production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate [2] - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 137,600 tons, up 7,200 tons month - on - month (5.52%) and 24.07% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, up 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. Production and capacity utilization slightly declined in October [2] - As of November 19, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 31,500 tons, up 700 tons (2.24%) from the previous period. The cost support of butadiene rubber strengthened slightly, but high - premium offers were difficult to attract buyers, and private price - holding was also difficult to get terminal follow - up. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises changed slightly. After the restart of previously overhauled devices, the domestic butadiene rubber production is expected to increase in the short term, and the inventory of production and trading enterprises is expected to rise slightly [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Apple Industry Daily on November 24, 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9379 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 124,863 lots, a week - on - week increase of 4048 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 8095 lots, a week - on - week increase of 523 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag 75 and above) is 5.25 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag 75 and above) is 2.6 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag 70 and above semi - commercial) is 4.2 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag 80 and above second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 4 yuan/jin, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple production in China is 5128.51 million tons, and the weekly apple wholesale price is 9.43 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.07 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg [2] - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 773.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.92 million tons. The capacity utilization ratio in Shandong is 0.59, a week - on - week increase of 0.03; in Shaanxi is 0.54, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 [2] - The monthly apple export volume is 80,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts decreased by 5.8%, and the year - on - year monthly export value of apples decreased by 14.3% [2] - The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg; of bananas is 5.34 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg; of watermelons is 5.56 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg [2] - The weekly average daily morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 12.2 vehicles, unchanged; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 16 vehicles, unchanged; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 23.8 vehicles, unchanged [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 22.08%, a day - on - day decrease of 0.23%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.08%, a day - on - day decrease of 0.23% [2] Group 3: Industry News - Inventory apple trading in Shandong and western production areas is still dull, mainly with foreign trade merchants purchasing small - sized inventory fruits. Market merchants have low enthusiasm for purchasing, mainly digesting ground - sourced fruits, and the transaction price has little change [2] - Apples in Shandong and Shanxi are still being stored, ground trading is gradually ending, and inventory - sourced trading is limited. As of November 19, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory in main production areas is 773.16 million tons, an increase of 8.92 million tons from last week. The capacity utilization ratio in Shandong is 54.29%, an increase of 3.02% from last week; in Shaanxi is 59.10%, a decrease of 0.34% from last week. Ground trading in Shandong is ending, and some areas like Qixia are doing a small amount of storage. Storage in Shaanxi is basically over, and the production area has started to transfer out of storage [2] Group 4: Core View - The performance of the sales area market is average. Pay attention to the substitution effect of citrus fruits on the market. In the short term, the apple futures price is expected to remain at a high level [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continued its volatile adjustment pattern during the session. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in November was 51.9, a 4 - month low, while the service industry index was 55, with the employment sub - item declining. The labor market faces further downward risks. The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has risen from 40% to 70%, potentially benefiting precious metal prices. Geopolitically, the US and Ukraine are negotiating a cease - fire, but the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. In the short term, the precious metals market lacks clear positive factors, and gold and silver prices will enter a range - bound period. In the long term, the US government's debt pressure weakens the US dollar's credit foundation, and gold remains attractive. The recommended price range for the Shanghai Gold 2602 contract is 900 - 950 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2602 contract is 11500 - 12300 yuan/kilogram [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 930.32 yuan/gram, up 3.38 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 11808 yuan/kilogram, up 128 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 164620 hands, up 4310 hands; those of Shanghai Silver were 347468 hands, up 830 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 106620 hands, up 1060 hands; those of Shanghai Silver were 91476 hands, up 4192 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 0 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver was 0 kilograms, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 925.39 yuan/gram, down 2.11 yuan; the spot price of silver was 11818 yuan/kilogram, down 97 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 4.93 yuan/gram, down 5.49 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 10 yuan/kilogram, down 225 yuan [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 1040.57 tons, up 1.14 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15257.92 tons, up 11.29 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 231956 contracts, down 20952 contracts; those of silver were 46217 contracts, down 3522 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1248.76 tons, up 42.73 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1313.07 tons, up 86.25 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 22.13%, up 0.18%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 28.38%, down 0.12%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 22.09%, down 3.17%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 22.09%, down 3.17% [2] Industry News - Ukraine's Zelensky reported multiple rounds of high - level peace talks in Geneva, Switzerland, saying that "substantive dialogue" had begun, but the specific plan was still highly uncertain. The US Treasury Secretary said that the government shutdown caused a permanent loss of $11 billion to the US GDP, and the overall economy was not at risk of recession. Multiple Fed officials signaled a rate cut, and after their speeches, the market's bet on a Fed rate cut in December exceeded 50% [2]

Report Date - The report is dated November 24, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the domestic market, the new cotton harvest is nearly finished, commercial cotton inventory is seasonally rising, and the pressure of new cotton listing is emerging. The import cotton ports maintain a pattern of more out than in and are at the highest level in four months. On the demand side, spinning mills' orders increase limitedly, but the tariff reduction is beneficial for domestic cotton textile exports, supporting cotton prices. Overall, domestic demand improves marginally, with support at the bottom and suppression from increased supply at the top. The cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the future [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price is 13,585 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price is 20,075 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 89,472 hands, down 10,304 hands; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 504 hands, down 181 hands. - Cotton main - contract positions are 551,915 hands, up 5,004 hands; cotton yarn main - contract positions are 21,700 hands, up 752 hands. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 2,240 sheets, down 4 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 14 sheets, down 3 sheets [2] 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,793 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,590 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,792 yuan/ton; Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) arrival price is 21,105 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) is 13,852 yuan/ton; Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) arrival price is 22,369 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons. - Cotton - yarn price difference is 5,794 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; national industrial cotton inventory is 785,000 tons, down 76,000 tons [2] Industrial Situation - Cotton import volume is 90,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume is 140,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. - Imported cotton profit is 941 yuan/ton, up 413 yuan; national commercial cotton inventory is 2.9306 million tons, up 1.9089 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; fabric output is 2.62 billion meters, down 1.8 million meters; yarn output is 2.001 million tons, down 73,000 tons; grey - fabric inventory days are 31.97 days, up 0.85 days [2] - For clothing and clothing accessories, the monthly export amount is 110,034.8043 million US dollars, down 14,497.6657 million US dollars; for textile yarns, fabrics and products, the monthly export amount is 112,584.1892 million US dollars, down 7,080.9708 million US dollars [2] Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 5.16%, down 0.53 percentage points; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility is 5.16%, down 0.53 percentage points. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 4.73%, down 0.07 percentage points; cotton 60 - day historical volatility is 7.39%, unchanged [2] Industry News - As of October 7, 2025, US non - commercial long positions in cotton were 70,902 hands, down 1,689 hands from the previous week; non - commercial short positions were 129,324 hands, up 6,748 hands from the previous week; net short positions were 58,422 hands, up 8,437 hands from the previous week. - As of the week ending November 18, about 51% of US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 47% the previous week. - For the week ending October 2, US current - year cotton export sales increased by 199,000 bales, up 28% from the previous week and 43% from the average of the previous 4 weeks; US cotton export shipments were 157,700 bales, up 34% from the previous week and 25% from the average of the previous 4 weeks [2]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5370 | 17 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 417739 | 1039 | | 期货市场 | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 7693 | -278 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -64209 | 1158 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) | 183 | 0 | | | | 吨) | 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 4073 | 41 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The sample - point inventory of red dates has increased. About 50% of the acquisition in major producing areas has been completed, and the acquired goods are being shipped. The acquisition progress in the Third Division and Maigaiti area is relatively slow. The product prices in the sales area continue to decline, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, the market transaction is average, the spot price is expected to be weakly stable, and the Zhengzhou red date futures price is expected to run at a low level in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for red dates is 9225 yuan/ton, and the main - contract position is 121,643 lots, a decrease of 13,118 lots compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 3722 lots, the number of warehouse receipts is 0, and the total effective warehouse - receipt forecast is 428 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of red dates in different regions show different trends. For example, the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 4.35 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/jin; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Henan is 4.45 yuan/jin, unchanged; the price of special - grade red dates in Hebei is 9.66 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg; the price of special - grade red dates in Guangdong is 11.2 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg [3]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red - date inventory is 10,330 tons, an increase of 490 tons compared to the previous week, a 4.98% week - on - week increase and a 101.76% year - on - year increase. The monthly export volume of red dates is 2,205,220 kg, a decrease of 78,451 kg, and the cumulative export volume is 25,753,622 kg [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni is 36,480.43 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of production is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 15 trucks of red dates arrived, with reference prices of 9.50 yuan/kg for special - grade, 8.50 - 8.70 yuan/kg for first - grade, and 7.50 yuan/kg for second - grade. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 12 trucks of red dates arrived, with reference prices of 10.80 yuan/kg for special - grade and 9.90 yuan/kg for first - grade. The quality of the arrived goods varies, the price difference has widened, and the market acceptance of ordinary goods is poor. The red dates in the Xinjiang main - producing area are in the late stage of being picked, and the acquisition progress in Aksu and other places has accelerated [3].