Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Views - For corn, due to the increase in US corn production and ending stocks by USDA, international corn prices are dragged down. In the domestic market, with new grains to be listed in September in the Northeast production area, the supply is relatively loose, demand support is limited, and the spot price is under pressure. The corn market remains in a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [2] - For corn starch, as previously shutdown enterprises resume production, the industry's operating rate has rebounded, increasing supply - side pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a significant oversupply situation. The starch market also shows a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2166 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2484 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. Corn futures持仓量 (active contract) is 949895 hands, up 12659 hands; corn starch futures持仓量 (active contract) is 200843 hands, up 6844 hands [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn is - 91084 hands, up 11036 hands; for corn starch, it is - 21149 hands, up 1645 hands [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn is 105851 hands, down 4924 hands; that of corn starch is 7450 hands, unchanged [2] - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 366 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 403 cents/bushel, down 3.5 cents; CBOT corn total position (weekly) is 1549876 contracts, down 67625 contracts [2] - CBOT corn non - commercial net long position (weekly) is - 133174 contracts, down 25206 contracts [2] Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2384.71 yuan/ton, down 6.66 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2710 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The f.o.b. price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang is 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The CIF price of imported corn is 1927.58 yuan/ton, up 0.11 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the corn main contract is 214.71 yuan/ton, down 6.66 yuan; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 221 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2436.5 yuan/ton, down 1.06 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 138 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [2] - The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 12 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 398.93 million tons, down 2.92 million tons; the predicted sown area in the US is 35.12 million hectares, down 0.25 million hectares [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Brazil is 131 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Argentina is 53 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in China is 295 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in China is 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports (weekly) is 75.1 tons, down 14.5 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 340.2 tons, down 24.1 tons [2] - The corn inventory in northern ports (weekly) is 247 tons, down 22 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly) is 133.9 tons, up 0.7 tons [2] - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 tons, down 10 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 tons, down 13.28 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2937.7 tons, up 175.6 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 110 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - The sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) is 29.61 days, down 0.83 days; the processing profit of corn starch in Hebei is - 70 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] - The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 114.06 tons, down 2.4 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin is - 46 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises (weekly) is 42%, down 1.08%; the operating rate of starch enterprises (weekly) is 52.3%, down 3.6% [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.87%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.86%, down 0.02% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.11%, down 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.11%, down 0.34% [2] Industry News - Based on a sample survey of 179 farmlands, the expected corn yield per acre in Indiana is 193.82 bushels, higher than last year's 187.54 bushels/acre and the three - year average of 182.09 bushels/acre, reaching the highest level since 2003 [2] - Based on 336 samples, the expected corn yield per acre in Nebraska this year is 179.50 bushels, higher than 173.25 bushels/acre in the 2024 survey and the three - year average of 166.33 bushels/acre, reaching the highest level since 2021 [2] Key Focus - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate and inventory on Thursday and Friday [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The production of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has increased due to the restart of previously - shut - down devices, and the supply is expected to rise significantly. The inventory level of finished products is likely to increase. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tires fluctuated slightly last week. Some semi - steel tire enterprises' maintenance plans dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate, while the resumption of work of all - steel tire maintenance sample enterprises drove up the capacity utilization rate. Although there is still room for a slight increase in capacity utilization rate, the general order performance and enterprise production control will limit the increase. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,000 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,775 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 38,436, with a week - on - week increase of 2,745. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber was 2,490 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,650 - 11,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 - 150 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 25 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil was 65.79 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.81 US dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil was 62.35 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.07 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was 830 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 US dollars/ton; the price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was 574.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.75 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene (CFR China) was 1,080 US dollars/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,425 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 135 yuan/ton [2]. - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 15.11 million tons/week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.69%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 20,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5,700 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 47.52%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.65 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 64.52%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.65 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 482 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 124 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 30,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 23,450 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 700 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,990 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.07%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.28 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.09%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.09 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.74 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.51 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.73 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.28 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of August 21, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 200 tons, or 0.56%. As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 69.11%, a week - on - week increase of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.55 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 62.62%, a week - on - week increase of 2.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.69 percentage points [2]. - In July 2025, the output of cis - butadiene rubber in China was 129,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons, or 5.47%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2].

000元，可以考虑中长线逢低布局多单。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 8635 | 245 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 283578 | 3710 -12 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -77137 | 14988 广期所仓单(日,手) | 50613 | | | | 9-10月工业硅价差 | -40 | -10 | | | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9250 | 0 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9600 | 0 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On Thursday, the HC2510 contract decreased with reduced positions. The overall situation is that Tangshan has entered a production - restriction period, but market sentiment is low, and the futures price is weak. The short - term market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running at a low level. The operation suggestion is to be bearish with oscillations, and pay attention to the rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - HC main contract closing price is 3,375 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; HC main contract position is 1,047,482 lots, down 76,410 lots; HC contract top 20 net position is - 56,224 lots, down 1,804 lots; HC10 - 1 contract spread is 15 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 34,892 tons, down 5,669 tons; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 254 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,470 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou is 3,420 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan is 3,460 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin is 3,370 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The HC main contract basis is 95 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 140 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 771 yuan/wet ton, up 9 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,535 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 3,020 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 45 - port iron ore inventory is 13,819.27 million tons, up 107 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory is 39.05 million tons, down 5.31 million tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory is 609.78 million tons, down 9.52 million tons; the Hebei billet inventory is 112.52 million tons, down 2.84 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.57%, down 0.20%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.24%, up 0.17%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output is 325.24 million tons, up 9.65 million tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate is 83.08%, up 2.46%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory is 78.89 million tons, down 1.09 million tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory is 282.55 million tons, up 5.06 million tons. The domestic crude steel output is 7,966 million tons, down 353 million tons; the steel net export volume is 939 million tons, up 18 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production is 2.5911 million vehicles, down 0.203 million vehicles; the monthly automobile sales are 2.5934 million vehicles, down 0.3111 million vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner output is 20.5965 million units, down 7.7866 million units; the monthly household refrigerator output is 8.7307 million units, down 0.3168 million units; the monthly household washing - machine output is 8.7743 million units, and the data trend is not clearly presented in the report [2]. Industry News - On August 21st, Mysteel reported that the actual hot - rolled coil output was 325.24 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.65 million tons; the steel mill inventory was 78.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.09 million tons; the social inventory was 282.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.06 million tons; the total inventory was 361.44 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.97 million tons; the apparent demand was 321.27 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.52 million tons. Tangshan Zhonghou Plate Co., Ltd. plans to overhaul a 1*1780m³ blast furnace starting from August 22nd, with an expected overhaul period of about 40 days, and an average daily impact on hot - metal output of about 0.5 million tons [2].

瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 13765 | -10 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 69877 | -741 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 430 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -15934 | 96 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 13700 | 100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 13400 | 0 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 15100 | 200 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | -75 | 225 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 42447 | 716 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4043 | 1 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | 0 | -0.1 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 30 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [2] Report's Core View - The international raw sugar price will experience short - term low - level wide - range fluctuations. In the domestic market, the window for extra - quota profit remains open, leading to a significant increase in sugar imports in July. Beet sugar will start being squeezed in September, increasing supply. The demand is expected to rise due to the summer and upcoming double - festival stocking. The inventory pressure is not significant, but the de - stocking process has slowed down. The new - season sugar production is expected to remain at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the domestic market will show short - term fluctuations, and the operation suggestion is to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5688 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 358,685 lots, up 14,946 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 15,751, down 493; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 19,655 lots, down 1995 lots; the total number of valid warehouse receipt forecasts is 1, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4491 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4509 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5706 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5729 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5855 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 5970 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Liuzhou is 6030 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 740,000 tons, up 320,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 359.37 million tons, up 23.47 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year increase in refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year increase in soft - drink production is 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.09%, down 0.16 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 8.06%, down 0.2 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.57%, up 0.27 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.38%, up 0.05 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of the week ending August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 70, down from 76 the previous week. On Wednesday, the ICE October raw sugar contract rose 1.72%. On Thursday, the SR2601 sugar contract rose 0.51% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The market acknowledges the potential reduction in the new season's production, but there are differences in production estimates. Mysteel initially estimates that the new - season production will decrease by 5 - 10% compared to the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, with an expected output of 56 - 62 million tons. Before the production is finalized, the expectation of a new - season production cut supports the red date futures price. However, as the previous price increase has digested the positive impact of the production cut, the driving force for the red date 2601 contract has weakened. It is expected to have a short - term strong adjustment, and attention should be paid to the actual new - season production. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main red date futures contract is 11,470 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 136,661 lots, with an increase of 1,130 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,464 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts is 9,826. The total number of valid warehouse receipt forecasts is 1,237, with an increase of 1 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The prices of red date products in different regions remain stable. For example, the unified price of red dates in Kashgar is 6 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 4.8 yuan/jin, and the price of special - grade red dates in Guangdong is 11.5 yuan/kg [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual red date production is 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, with a decrease of 4.1 in the area [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 9,686 tons, a decrease of 98 tons compared to last week, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00% and a year - on - year increase of 79.94%. The monthly export volume of red dates is 1,765,107 kg, a decrease of 464,120 kg. The cumulative monthly export volume is 17,115,674 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8 yuan/kg. The cumulative sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons. The cumulative year - on - year production of Hao Xiang Ni's red dates is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 21st, in the Alar region, the weather changed from light rain to cloudy with temperatures between 16 - 28°C. Jujube farmers are actively engaged in field management, and the jujubes are about to enter the sugar - increasing period. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall on the fruits. On Thursday, the red date 2601 contract closed up 0.39% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Although economic data weakened in July, market expectations for policy intensification have risen. The market is focused on the semi - annual reports of listed companies, with positive net profit growth in the four broad - based indices. Some companies' improved fundamentals support the stock market, but caution is needed regarding the potential drag on index performance from companies with unannounced and possibly poor earnings. A - shares, with reasonable valuations, are attracting foreign capital inflows. The strategy suggests light - position buying on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Prices and Spreads - IF, IH, and IC main contracts (2509) rose, while IM main contract (2509) fell. For example, IF main contract (2509) was at 4282.2 (+28.2↑), IH main contract (2509) was at 2865.4 (+24.0↑), IC main contract (2509) was at 6656.4 (-4.0↓), and IM main contract (2509) was at 7202.2 (-31.4↓). Most of the contract spreads decreased, such as IF - IH monthly contract spread at 1416.8 (-2.0↓) [2] 3.2 Futures Position Holdings - The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. IF top 20 net position was - 30,886.00 (-783.0↓), IH top 20 net position was - 17,218.00 (-1458.0↓), IC top 20 net position was - 16,125.00 (-305.0↓), and IM top 20 net position was - 58,664.00 (-1904.0↓) [2] 3.3 Spot Prices and Basis - The spot prices of CSI 300 and SSE 50 rose, while those of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 fell. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all decreased. For instance, CSI 300 was at 4288.07 (+16.7↑), and IF main contract basis was - 5.9 (-4.5↓) [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume was 24,603.35 billion yuan (+119.21↑), and margin trading balance was 21,475.69 billion yuan (+158.75↑). The proportion of rising stocks decreased to 40.02% (-27.75↓), and Shibor was 1.466% (-0.007↓) [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The strength of all A - shares, technical aspects, and capital aspects all decreased. All A - shares were at 4.30 (-2.70↓), technical aspects were at 4.60 (-2.10↓), and capital aspects were at 4.00 (-3.10↓) [2] 3.6 Industry News - From January to July 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 288,229 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. Real estate development investment was 53,580 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 38,780 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The LPR remained unchanged in August [2] 3.7 Key Events to Watch - On August 21 at 21:45, the preliminary values of the SPGI manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs in the US for August will be released. On August 22 at 22:00, Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the I2601 contract rose and then pulled back. Macroscopically, US Treasury Secretary Bezant said on the 19th local time that the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment and arrival volumes of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased this period, and domestic port inventories continued to rise. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained high, and pig iron production increased slightly, with the daily average output remaining above 2.4 million tons. Overall, the firm spot prices support the futures price, but the terminal demand is for on - demand procurement, which restricts the upward space. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. Operationally, short - term trading is recommended, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 772.50 yuan/ton, up 3.50 yuan; the position volume was 451,574 lots, up 11,185 lots. The spread between the I 9 - 1 contracts was 18.5 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was 8,234 lots, up 1,736 lots. The number of warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 2,000 lots, unchanged. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 101.2 US dollars/ton, up 0.45 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 837 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 823 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 703 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 50 yuan, up 2 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 100.60 US dollars/ton, down 0.15 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fines was 3.42, unchanged. The estimated import cost was 825 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,406.60 million tons, up 359.90 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,703.10 million tons, up 131.50 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,381.57 million tons, up 114.30 million tons. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,136.40 million tons, up 123.06 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,462.00 million tons, down 133.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 41.18 million tons, up 2.34 million tons. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 64.98%, up 3.02 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 34.60 million tons, down 2.00 million tons. The BDI index was 1,927.00, down 37.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.73 US dollars/ton, down 0.53 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.18 US dollars/ton, down 0.35 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.57%, down 0.20 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.24%, up 0.17 percentage points. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,966 million tons, down 353 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.18%, up 0.17 percentage points. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 19.51%, up 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 16.76%, down 1.75 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.19%, down 1.24 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From August 11th to August 17th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,703.1 million tons, up 131.5 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,476.6 million tons, up 94.7 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,252.5 million tons, up 49.5 million tons [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the domestic iron ore port inventory, blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills on Friday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai gold and silver main contracts closed slightly higher, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation during the session. Trump pressured Fed officials again, which may marginally affect the US dollar's credit and support the safe - haven demand for gold. The precious metals market was pressured by the spill - over effect of steel and aluminum tariffs, mainly driven by market sentiment. The market is currently focused on the cease - fire expectation between Russia and Ukraine and the expected trading around the Fed's interest - rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. If Powell further releases hawkish signals, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields may continue to rebound, putting pressure on the upward movement of gold prices. In the short term, if there is no significant progress in the geopolitical situation, the precious metals market is expected to continue to oscillate within a range. In the medium term, interest - rate cuts will provide strong bottom support for gold prices. If the Russia - Ukraine negotiations make substantial progress, it may further release the callback pressure on gold prices; otherwise, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying. Operationally, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for gold in the short term and focus on short - term rebound trading opportunities for silver. The focus range for the Shanghai gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver 2510 contract is 9000 - 9200 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai gold main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 775.12, up 2.44; Shanghai silver main contract closing price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9162, up 120 - Main contract positions: Shanghai gold (daily, lots): 183215, down 8259; Shanghai silver (daily, lots): 307098, down 11580 - Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract (daily, lots): 162201, up 1447; Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract (daily, lots): 116447, up 2105 - Warehouse receipt quantity: Gold (daily, kilograms): 36642, up 60; Silver (daily, kilograms): 1115055, down 25144 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price (daily, yuan/gram): 773.25, up 4.55; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9143, up 117 - Basis of Shanghai gold main contract (daily, yuan/gram): - 1.87, up 2.11; Basis of Shanghai silver main contract (daily, yuan/kilogram): - 19, down 3 [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings (daily, tons): 962.21, down 3.15; Silver ETF holdings (daily, tons): 15339.66, down 16.94 - Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 229485, down 7565; Silver CTFC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 44268, down 6390 - Total gold supply (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.84; Total silver supply (annually, million troy ounces): 987.8, down 21.4 - Total gold demand (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.83; Total global silver demand (annually, million ounces): 1195, down 47.4 [3] 3.4 Option Market - Historical volatility: 20 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.17, down 0.53; 40 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.6, up 0.12 - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold (daily, %): 16.54, down 0.82; Implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold (daily, %): 16.55, down 0.81 [3] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most believed the risk of rising inflation was higher than the risk of falling employment. - US President Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign immediately, increasing pressure on the Fed. The FHFA Director Pult accused Cook of fraud in two mortgages and called on the Justice Department to investigate. - The CRFB's latest forecast showed that due to tax, spending legislation, and tariff policies, the US federal budget deficit will reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, nearly $1 trillion higher than the CBO's January forecast. - ECB President Lagarde said that the euro - zone economic growth may slow down this quarter. Although the recent agreement with the US reduced uncertainty, the global trade situation remains unclear [3]