1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After the restart of previously overhauled devices, the short - term domestic output of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to increase, and the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises are also expected to rise slightly. The cost side support has strengthened slightly, but high - premium offers and private price - holding strategies have difficulty attracting buyers. Last week, tire enterprises had insufficient orders, some arranged overhauls and some reduced production, dragging down tire capacity utilization. As the production scheduling of overhauled enterprises gradually recovers, the tire enterprises' capacity utilization may show a restorative increase this week, but the overall demand improvement space is limited, and enterprise production control will continue to restrict the increase in capacity utilization. The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,000 - 10,500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 10,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 15 (units not specified), a decrease of 5; the 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber was not specified in the change; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses was 68,735 tons, a decrease of 1,588 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers in different regions increased by 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil was 63.37 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.81 dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 562.63 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.75 dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 730 dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 800 dollars/ton, an increase of 30 dollars/ton; the price of WTI crude oil was 58.84 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.78 dollars/barrel; the market price of butadiene in Shandong was 7,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.94 million tons/week, an increase of 0.38 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 72.53%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 39,800 tons, an increase of 10,800 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 54.26%, an increase of 1.01 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 70.05%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 62.25%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.42 million pieces, a decrease of 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 51.68 million pieces, a decrease of 8.57 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.24 days, an increase of 0.69 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.86 days, an increase of 0.5 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points month - on - month and 10.40 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. In October 2025, the domestic output of cis - butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons month - on - month and 24.07% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. As of November 19, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 31,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% [2]. 3.6 Key Points of Concern - There is no news today [2].

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2067 | -10 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -121 | 0 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 1200373 | -112307 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -204615 | -47203 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 2400 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2035 | 45 内蒙古(日,元 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The short - term trend of the UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1630 - 1670 yuan/ton. The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly in the short term, and export demand will gradually increase with the new quota. The urea enterprise inventory may continue to decline [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 71 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 234,315 lots, an increase of 2000 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 26,299. The exchange warehouse receipts are 7302, a decrease of 268 [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei and Henan are 1650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Jiangsu is 1630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong is 1640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Anhui is 1640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main contract basis is 2 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton. The FOB Baltic price is 362.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB China main port price is 400 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 100,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons, a 21.95% increase; the enterprise inventory is 1.4372 million tons, a decrease of 46,400 tons, a 3.13% decrease. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.91%, a decrease of 0.17%; the daily output is 202,900 tons, an increase of 6200 tons. The urea export volume is 1.2 million tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons. The monthly output is 5.87127 million tons, an increase of 132,600 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 34.61%, an increase of 4.29%; the melamine operating rate is 62.2%, an increase of 4.72%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 3.6287 million tons, a decrease of 1.0331 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32,000 tons, an increase of 2800 tons [2] Industry News - As of November 19, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased by 3.13% week - on - week. The urea price fluctuated upward, and the demand for northeast reserves increased significantly. As of November 20, the port inventory increased by 21.95% week - on - week, with slow shipments. The domestic urea output increased due to the resumption of previously - overhauled devices. The production of urea enterprises increased by 3.16% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [2] Suggestion - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - For corn, the USDA report is slightly bearish, with higher - than - expected US corn yields adding supply pressure. In the domestic market, supply pressure is concentrated on deep - processing enterprises, and corn purchase prices are on the strong side. Corn futures prices are generally in a strong oscillation, and investors are advised to be cautious about chasing the rise [2][3]. - For starch, although new - season corn supply is abundant, increasing supply - side pressure, the current supply - demand structure is good, downstream demand is fair, and enterprise sales are smooth. Corn starch futures prices have risen in tandem with the corn market recently [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the 22 - corn starch futures active contract is 2242 yuan/ton, the corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 21 yuan/ton, the futures open interest of the active contract for yellow corn is 41,320 lots, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn is - 30,012 lots [2]. - Starch: The closing price of the corn starch futures active contract is 2556 yuan/ton, the corn - starch monthly spread (1 - 3) is 10 yuan/ton, the futures open interest of the active contract for corn starch is 254,397 lots, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn starch is - 159,995 lots [2]. - CBOT: The closing price of CBOT corn futures active contract is 437.25 cents/bushel, the total open interest of CBOT corn is 1,596,361 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 92,353 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price of corn is 2309.22 yuan/ton, the FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2560 yuan/ton, and the CIF price of imported corn is 2031.61 yuan/ton [2]. - Starch: The ex - factory prices of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2270 yuan/ton, 2800 yuan/ton, and 2730 yuan/ton respectively [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 427.11 million hectares, 131 million hectares, 53 million hectares, and 295 million hectares respectively, and the predicted yields are 36.44 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, and 44.3 million tons respectively [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Corn inventory at southern ports is 62.8 million tons, at northern ports is 134 million tons, and the monthly import volume is 6 million tons. The monthly export volume of corn starch is 12,780 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2957 million tons, the sample feed's corn inventory days are 26.23 days, the deep - processing corn consumption is 138.31 million tons, the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 69.45%, and the starch enterprise operating rate is 60.89% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.72%, the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.4%, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.59%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.59% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of November 20, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season is 93%, compared with 85% a week ago and 95% in the same period last year. The US corn export inspection volume for the week ending November 20, 2025, is 1,632,144 tons [2].

之间。短期或处于宽幅震荡状态。 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 鸡蛋产业日报 2025-11-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3202 | -8 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -31721 | -1123 | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(1-5):(日,元/500千 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with positive demand expectations and inventory depletion in the industry. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 95,400 yuan/ton, up 4,920 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 163,468 lots, up 8,642 lots; the trading volume of the main contract was 343,199 lots, down 21,879 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 300 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 26,615 lots/ton, up 105 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 89,650 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 3,350 yuan/ton, down 5,020 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 1,180 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 9,725 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 3,769 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 51,530 tons, up 4,390 tons; the monthly import volume was 23,880.69 tons, up 4,283.79 tons; the monthly export volume was 245.91 tons, up 95.10 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries was 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 52%, down 1%; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 64%, up 5%; the monthly production of new energy vehicles was 1,772,000 units, up 155,000 units; the monthly sales volume was 1,715,000 units, up 111,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume was 12,943,000 units, up 3,193,000 units; the monthly export volume was 256,000 units, up 34,000 units; the cumulative export volume was 2,014,000 units, up 956,000 units [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position was 256,470 lots, up 28,518 lots; the total put position was 202,678 lots, down 908 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions was 79.03%, down 10.2849%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.38%, down 0.0316% [2] 3.7 Industry News - Skyrizon Co., Ltd. stated that its hexafluorophosphate lithium was expected to be at full production and full sales currently and in the first quarter of next year. Longpan Technology revised the sales volume of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials in the original agreement from 150,000 tons to 1.3 million tons. Ganfeng Lithium's vice - president believed that the lithium industry was in an upward cycle. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the creation of national emerging industry development demonstration bases [2] 3.8 Technical Analysis - On the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines were above the 0 - axis and the green bars were converging [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report Core View - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a situation of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly weakened demand affected by the off - season. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of converging supply and slightly reduced demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum was 21,465 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures was 2,727 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,705 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2] - The main - second - contract spread of Shanghai aluminum was - 80 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main - second - contract spread of alumina was - 63 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy was - 130 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] - The position of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 16,320 hands to 271,763 hands; the position of the main contract of alumina increased by 1,416 hands to 390,129 hands; the position of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 764 hands to 10,428 hands [2] - LME aluminum's three - month quotation was 2,813 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,050 tons to 545,950 tons [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum increased by 8,782 hands to 17,434 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.63, up 0.02 [2] Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,440 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 21,330 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 32.80 US dollars/ton, down 1.93 US dollars [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 645 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 25 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of alumina was 43 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national alumina production in the current month was 786.50 million tons, down 13.40 million tons; the national alumina utilization rate was 86.96%, down 1.31 percentage points; the national alumina demand (electrolytic aluminum part) in the current month was 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 16,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments increased by 2,945.61 tons to 158,360.01 tons; China's export volume of aluminum scrap and fragments decreased by 36.08 tons to 32.46 tons [2] - The export volume of alumina in the current month was 18.00 million tons, down 7.00 million tons; the import volume of alumina in the current month was 18.93 million tons, up 12.93 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum increased by 4,462 tons to 248,261.37 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum decreased by 4,396.36 tons to 24,573.56 tons; the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,523.20 million tons, and the operating rate was 98.24%, down 0.12 percentage points [2] - The production of aluminum products was 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 50.00 million tons, down 2.00 million tons [2] - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 3.09 million tons, up 0.74 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - The built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126.00 million tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 [2] - The production of aluminum alloy was 168.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of automobiles was 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.49%, down 0.58 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 10.39%, unchanged [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 9.81%, down 0.0045 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.52, up 0.099 [2] Industry News - Fed Governor Waller advocates a rate cut in December; San Francisco Fed President Daly supports a rate cut next month [2] - As of the end of October, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%, including solar power and wind power with significant growth [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the creation of national emerging industry development demonstration bases [2] - In the first three quarters of this year, China's full - industry foreign direct investment was 923.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [2] - The central bank will conduct a 1 - trillion - yuan MLF operation on November 25, with a net MLF investment of 100 billion yuan this month [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - After the restart of previously overhauled devices, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to increase in the short term, and the inventories of both production and trading enterprises are expected to rise slightly [2]. - The cost of cis - butadiene rubber is slightly stronger, but the high - premium offers have difficulty attracting buyers, and the private price - holding strategy also has limited support from the market. The inventory of sample production enterprises has increased, while that of sample trading enterprises has changed slightly [2]. - Last week, tire enterprises had insufficient orders, with some arranging overhauls and others reducing production, which dragged down the capacity utilization rate. As the production of overhauled enterprises gradually recovers, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may show a restorative increase this week, but the overall demand growth is limited, and enterprise production control will restrict the increase [2]. - The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,550 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,395 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 10; the position volume of the main contract is 70,323 yuan/ton, up 2,076 [2]. - The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is 20 yuan/ton, down 10; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,960 tons, down 20 [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in various regions has decreased, with a range of 100 - 150 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 105 yuan/ton, down 10 [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil is 62.56 dollars/barrel, down 0.82; WTI crude oil is 58.06 dollars/barrel, down 0.94. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 730 dollars/ton, with no change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 573.13 dollars/ton, up 0.13; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 770 dollars/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 7,350 yuan/ton, down 190 [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.94 million tons/week, up 0.38; the capacity utilization rate is 72.53%, down 0.49 [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 39,800 tons, up 10,800; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.26%, up 1.01 [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.76 million tons, up 0.72; the capacity utilization rate is 72.64%, up 2.72 [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 284 yuan/ton, down 352; the social inventory is 3.15 million tons, up 0.07; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,630 tons, up 780; the trader's inventory is 4,880 tons, down 90 [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 70.05%, down 3.63; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 62.25%, down 2.25 [2]. - The monthly output of full - steel tires is 1,242 million pieces, down 72; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,168 million pieces, down 857 [2]. - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 40.24 days, up 0.69; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.86 days, up 0.5 [2]. Industry News - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [2]. - In October 2025, the domestic output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 million tons, or 5.52%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year [2]. - As of November 19, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.15 million tons, an increase of 0.70 million tons from the previous period, or 2.24% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For corn, the US report is slightly bearish, with high short - term supply pressure due to the approaching end of the harvest. In the domestic market, the price in the Northeast region is rising due to reduced supply from the grassroots level, but the price - driving force is insufficient. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the market is not very active, and the futures price is generally in a strong oscillation, suggesting short - term observation [2]. - For corn starch, with the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate rises, increasing supply - side pressure. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, and downstream demand is acceptable. The inventory has decreased recently, and the futures price has risen with the corn market, suggesting short - term observation [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2535 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 108473 hands, up 699 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is - 1400 hands [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2220 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 8180 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 67364 hands, down 202 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 315 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 437.75 cents/bushel; the total position is 1596361 contracts, up 46302 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 11046 contracts, down 92353 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2302.06 yuan/ton, down 22.83 yuan; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2250 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 2031.22 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2560 yuan/ton, 2800 yuan/ton, and 2730 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the basis of the main contract is 25 yuan, down 23 yuan [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2503.61 yuan/ton, down 1.06 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 440 yuan/ton, up 118 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 243 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 36.44 million hectares, 53 million hectares, and 295 million hectares respectively, with changes of 0.55 million hectares, 0, and 0 respectively; the predicted yields are 427.11 million tons, 131 million tons, 7.5 million tons, and 44.3 million tons respectively, with changes of 0, 0, 0, and 0 respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 62.8 million tons, down 23.8 million tons; the inventory at northern ports is 134 million tons, up 10 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 272.7 million tons, down 0.8 million tons [2]. - Corn starch inventory: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 110.9 million tons, down 2.4 million tons [2][3]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12780 tons, down 2020 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The deep - processing corn consumption is 138.31 million tons, down 0.34 million tons; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 67.29%, up 0.5%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 60.89%, down 2.59% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.72%, down 0.39%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.4%, up 0.29%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.54%, up 5.56%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 14.55%, up 5.57% [2]. Industry News - As of November 19, the sown area of Argentina's 2025/26 corn is 37.3% of the total expected area, only 0.7% more than a week ago, lower than 39.4% in the same period last year [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture released a monthly crushing report. In August, the total consumption of US corn was 511 million bushels, up 1% month - on - month but down 4% year - on - year. The US 2025/26 corn yield per acre is estimated to be 186.0 bushels, with a production estimate of 1.6752 billion bushels, slightly lower than the September estimate [2]. Key Points to Focus On - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory on Thursday and Friday [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the supply - side pressure is small. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weak due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal price maintains a volatile trend, and short - term observation is recommended. [2] - The rapeseed oil market has support from the supply - side as the oil mills are basically shut down and the inventory is decreasing. But the demand is mainly rigid due to the abundant supply of soybean oil. Recently, the rapeseed oil futures price has declined slightly due to the weakness of palm oil, and short - term trading is recommended. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9778 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2446 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed is 641.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 8.6 Canadian dollars, and that of the active rapeseed contract is 5454 yuan/ton, down 97 yuan. [2] - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 356 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 61 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. [2] - Positions: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 235090 lots, down 8834 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 360472 lots, up 4288 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 1412 lots, down 3130 lots; for rapeseed meal are - 7699 lots, up 2888 lots. [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3976, down 57; that of rapeseed meal is 0, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2440 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10283.75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 7845.7 yuan/ton, down 113.9 yuan. [2] - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 4.05, down 0.02. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1710 yuan/ton, unchanged; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1760 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. [2] - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 0 tons, down 11.53 tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 14 tons, down 2 tons; that of rapeseed meal is 22.06 tons, up 6.29 tons. [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 0.25 tons, down 0.25 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 1.25 tons, down 0.83 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.01 tons, down 0.19 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 36.45 tons, down 3.6 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 22.96 tons, down 2.49 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 1.15 tons, down 0.33 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 22.3 tons, up 1.5 tons. [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 1.01 tons, down 0.3 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0.3 tons, up 0.1 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2957 tons, down 171.7 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 427.6 tons, down 67.4 tons. [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 5199 billion yuan, up 690.4 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.06%, up 0.36%; that of at - the - money put options is 20.06%, up 0.36%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.88%, up 1.47%; that of at - the - money put options is 14.93%, up 1.52%. [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.52%, down 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 20.81%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.87%, up 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.76%, unchanged. [2] 3.7 Industry News - On November 21 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, following the weakness of US soybean oil, European rapeseed, and Malaysian palm oil futures. [2] - The US soybeans are in the export season, with abundant supply in the short - term. The US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market, but the domestic soybean crushing consumption in the US is good, and China's purchase of over 1.5 million tons of US soybeans last week supports the US soybean price. [2] - The Canada - China trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on the rapeseed tariff issue, restricting the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term. The Canadian rapeseed export has declined significantly this year, but the Canadian bio - fuel production incentive plan and the agreement with Pakistan to promote rapeseed export provide support. [2] - The US government is considering postponing the plan to cut bio - fuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and decline in exports in November bring inventory pressure to the international oil market. [2]