Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the short - term fundamentals have returned. The subsequent focus is on the production reduction intensity. After the anti - involution meeting, it's uncertain whether there will be speculation on soda ash. It's recommended to buy on dips for the soda ash main contract, while being aware of operational risks [2]. - For glass, although the current price is relatively high, if it drops to around 1150 yuan, it will reach a reasonable price range. There is no short - term upward driving force. It's also recommended to buy on dips for the glass main contract, while being aware of operational risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the soda ash main contract is 1383276 yuan/ton (daily), down 6; the closing price of the glass main contract is 1156 yuan/ton (daily), down 3. The soda ash - glass price difference is 150 yuan/ton (daily), down 3 [2]. - The position of the soda ash main contract is 17323 hands (daily), down 6; the position of the glass main contract is 1208724 hands (daily), up 10621. The net position of the top 20 in soda ash is - 345765, down 411; the net position of the top 20 in glass is - 264874, down 12417 [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of soda ash are 9073 tons (daily), down 1181; the exchange warehouse receipts of glass are 2188 tons (daily), down 200. The price difference between the September and January contracts of soda ash is - 98, up 2; the price difference between the September and January contracts of glass is - 173, down 8 [2]. - The basis of soda ash is - 79 yuan/ton (daily), up 19; the basis of glass is - 82, up 30 [2]. b. Spot Market - The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1230 yuan/ton (daily), down 30; the price of Central China heavy soda ash is 1325 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged. The price of East China light soda ash is 1265 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged; the price of Central China light soda ash is 1220 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged [2]. - The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1084 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged; the price of Central China glass sheets is 1090 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged [2]. c. Industry Situation - The operating rate of soda ash plants is 87.32% (weekly), up 1.91; the operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.34% (weekly), up 2.34 [2]. - The in - production capacity of glass is 15.96 million tons/year (weekly), unchanged; the number of in - production glass production lines is 223 (weekly), unchanged [2]. - The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 189.73 million tons (weekly), up 0.35; the inventory of glass enterprises is 6342.6 million heavy cases (weekly), up 157.9 [2]. d. Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of newly - started real estate area is 35206 million square meters, up 4841.68; the cumulative value of completed real estate area is 25034 million square meters, up 2467.39 [2]. e. Industry News - A series of news including the situation of 70 - city housing prices in July, policy - related information from the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the research on the 24 - hour trading mechanism by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2]. f. Supply - demand Analysis - **Soda ash**: On the supply side, the domestic soda ash operating rate and output have increased. Due to high profits last week, maintenance was less than expected, but as profits decline, overall output is expected to decrease. The market supply is still abundant in the short term. On the demand side, the number of cold - repaired glass production lines remains unchanged, and the glass output is at a low level. Photovoltaic glass has recovered, driving some demand [2]. - **Glass**: On the supply side, the number of cold - repaired glass production lines remains unchanged, and the output is at a low level. Profits are starting to decline due to the impact of high - temperature weather on real estate construction demand. On the demand side, the real estate situation is not optimistic, downstream deep - processing orders have increased slightly, and procurement is mainly for刚需. The growth of the automotive industry has weakened, and the market has the expectation of inventory replenishment as the peak season approaches [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The alumina market may experience a slight increase in supply and stable demand, with loose spot supplies and a possible slight accumulation of inventory. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a range - bound manner [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum market is in a situation of relatively stable supply and temporarily weak demand, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory and a decline in the molten - aluminum ratio. Option market sentiment is bullish. Light - position range - bound trading is advised [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The casting aluminum alloy market is in a stage where supply is slightly reduced and demand is weakening in the off - season, with continuous accumulation of industrial inventory. Light - position range - bound trading is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **3.1 Futures Market** - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,590 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,124 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the casting aluminum alloy main contract closing price is 20,125 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 233,902 lots, up 5,874 lots; the open interest of the alumina main contract is 185,979 lots, up 9,176 lots; the open interest of the casting aluminum alloy main contract is 7,973 lots, up 84 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory is 479,525 tons, down 2,571 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory is 120,653 tons, up 7,039 tons; alumina total inventory is 88,412 tons, up 2,940 tons [2]. **3.2 Spot Market** - **Prices**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,450 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,680 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,205 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of casting aluminum alloy is 325 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 90 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the basis of alumina is 81 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan [2]. **3.3 Upstream Situation** - **Production and Demand**: Alumina production is 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons; the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 16.32 million tons, down 10.82 million tons [2]. - **Imports and Exports**: China's imports of aluminum scrap and fragments are 160,494.61 tons, up 4,900.05 tons; exports are 79.39 tons, up 15.06 tons; alumina exports are 23 million tons, up 6 million tons; imports are 12.59 million tons, up 2.47 million tons [2]. **3.4 Industry Situation** - **Production and Capacity**: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the production of aluminum products is 548.37 million tons, down 39 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons [2]. - **Imports and Exports**: The import of primary aluminum is 248,198.71 tons, up 55,884.22 tons; the export is 40,987.71 tons, up 21,416.99 tons; the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54 million tons, up 5 million tons; the export of aluminum alloy is 2.49 million tons, down 0.09 million tons [2]. **3.5 Downstream and Application** - **Production**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots' total built - in capacity is 126 million tons, down 1.10 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy is 153.60 million tons, down 13.30 million tons; the production of automobiles is 251.02 million vehicles, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. - **Index**: The National Real Estate Climate Index is 93.34, down 0.25 [2]. **3.6 Option Situation** - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 5.72%, up 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.26%, down 0.05%; the implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money is 9.18%, up 0.0032% [2]. - **Put - Call Ratio**: The put - call ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.10, up 0.0014 [2]. **3.7 Industry News** - **Policy and Economy**: The Fed's July meeting minutes show that most officials support keeping interest rates unchanged, and there are differences in views on inflation and employment risks; China's new LPR remains unchanged for three consecutive months [2]. - **Projects**: President Xi Jinping emphasizes promoting major projects in Tibet such as the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway [2]. **3.8 Alumina View Summary** - **Market Performance**: The alumina main contract fluctuates weakly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply may increase due to high - level operation of production capacity and positive production sentiment; demand is stable as electrolytic aluminum capacity grows slightly and smelters' profits are good [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD shows double lines below the 0 - axis with a shrinking red bar [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trade with a light position in a range - bound manner and control trading risks [2]. **3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary** - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract rises first and then falls, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is relatively stable as in - production capacity and operating rate are high and new capacity is limited; demand is weakening due to the off - season and trade policies [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD shows double lines near the 0 - axis with a shrinking red bar [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trade with a light position in a range - bound manner and control trading risks [2]. **3.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy View Summary** - **Market Performance**: The casting aluminum alloy main contract rises first and then falls, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply may be slightly reduced due to high raw material costs and tight supply; demand is weakening in the off - season with cautious purchasing by downstream enterprises [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD shows double lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red bar [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trade with a light position in a range - bound manner and control trading risks [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic demand for urea is weak, and although some urea enterprises' inventories decline due to export orders and malfunctions, overall enterprise inventories are still on the rise. Short - term export news is favorable for reducing urea enterprise inventories, but due to enterprise purchase restrictions and slow - rising domestic demand, the decline in urea enterprise inventories may be limited. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1745 - 1800 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1764 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 27 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main contract position is 205,717 lots, down 2,892 lots; the top 20 net positions are - 36,183 lots, down 1,133 lots; and the exchange warehouse receipts are 3,573 lots, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui increased by 30 - 40 yuan/ton, while the price in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remained unchanged at 450 US dollars/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 4 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 46.4 tons, down 1.9 tons; enterprise inventory is 102.39 tons, up 6.65 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.22%, up 1.24 percentage points; the daily urea output is 192,700 tons, up 2,900 tons. The urea export volume is 57 tons, up 50 tons; the monthly urea output is 6,052,080 tons, up 20,740 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 43.48%, up 1.98 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 49.82%, down 11.28 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 116 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 78 yuan/ton, up 266 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 422.12 tons, up 5.3 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,800 tons, down 5,500 tons [2]. Industry News - As of August 20, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 102.39 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.65 tons or 6.95%. As of August 21, China's urea port inventory was 50.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.7 tons or 7.97%. As of August 21, China's urea production was 136.11 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 tons or 0.93%, and the capacity utilization rate was 83.99%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77% [2]. Suggestions - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The demand side shows that the olefin devices are operating stably, with an overall increase in the start - up rate. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2425 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 111 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest is 680234 lots, an increase of 5501 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 108124 lots, a decrease of 875 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts is 10766, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 125 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 261 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 284 euros/ton, up 8 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 61 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price is 2.76 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.15 dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 70.62 tons, an increase of 1.92 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 36.98 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit is 23.38 yuan/ton, down 2.02 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 310800 tons, an increase of 15200 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 82.4%, up 0.79 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.05%, up 0.43 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.15%, up 1.82 percentage points [2]. - The acetic acid operating rate is 91.06%, up 1.82 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 63.39%, down 3.23 percentage points [2]. - The olefin operating rate is 83.12%, down 0.77 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin profit on the disk is - 1027 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.26%, down 1.81 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.53%, down 0.08 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.43%, up 0.54 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.35%, up 0.45 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of August 20, the total methanol port inventory in China is 107.60 tons, an increase of 5.42 tons. East and South China ports have both accumulated inventory [2]. - As of August 20, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 31.08 tons, an increase of 1.52 tons, a 5.15% increase; the order backlog is 20.74 tons, a decrease of 1.20 tons, a 5.47% decrease [2]. - As of August 21, the domestic methanol - to - olefin device capacity utilization rate is 85.70%, a 1.45% increase [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market is expected to face continued adjustment next week due to increased supply and weakened demand. The price is likely to show a volatile trend, with cost and policy support but limited upside by downstream acceptance. The industrial silicon market will also maintain a volatile state as demand declines steadily while supply also drops. It is recommended to wait and see or arrange put options [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for polysilicon was 51,530 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan; the open interest of the main contract was 149,610 lots, down 476 lots. The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon was -2,325 yuan, up 85 yuan, and the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread was 42,895 yuan/ton, down 590 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon was 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was -4,875 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract for industrial silicon was 8,635 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan; the spot price was 9,250 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons, and the monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon was 324,700 tons, up 19,500 tons, and the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon was 100,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,170 tons, up 57 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China was 6.3 US dollars/kg, unchanged, and the monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells was 67,386,000 kilowatts, down 3,183,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 units, down 14,424,120 units, and the monthly import volume was 11,095,900 units, down 1,002,590 units. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules was 0.31 US dollars/unit, down 0.01 US dollars/unit. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 27.86, unchanged [2] Industry News - On August 20, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized another photovoltaic industry symposium to standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry. The meeting on August 19 did not discuss the detailed implementation of "anti - involution" in each link, and the anti - involution rules for battery, component, silicon wafer, and polysilicon links are expected to be discussed in the next two days. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. However, considering the resumption of production at some bases of three domestic leading enterprises and the release of some new production capacities in the second half of the year, if the resumption progress accelerates or new production capacities are released ahead of schedule next week, the market supply of polysilicon will increase [2] Viewpoint Summary - In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85%. Although the global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to be about 580 GW in 2025 and the domestic demand is about 1300,000 tons, the short - term weak demand restricts the rise of polysilicon prices. It is expected that the start - up rate of downstream photovoltaic enterprises will hardly increase. With increased supply and weakened demand, the polysilicon market will continue to adjust next week. The price is likely to fluctuate, with cost and policy support but limited upside by downstream acceptance. The demand for industrial silicon is steadily declining, and the supply is also decreasing, maintaining a volatile state [2] Key Focus - There is no news today [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Shanghai Lead Industry Daily Report 2025-08-21 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core View - The overall supply of Shanghai lead continues to be flat, demand gradually increases, and with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,745 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 20 yuan; the LME 3-month lead quote is 1,973.5 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 2.5 US dollars [3] - The price difference between the 09-10 contracts of Shanghai lead is -15 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 96,382 lots, with an increase of 3,663 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is -2,021 lots, with a decrease of 637 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 59,422 tons, with a decrease of 1,481 tons [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 64,844 tons, with an increase of 2,510 tons; the LME lead inventory is 282,950 tons, with an increase of 22,475 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 16,675 yuan/ton, with an increase of 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 16,770 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 120 yuan [3] - The basis of the lead main contract is -70 yuan/ton, with an increase of 55 yuan; the LME lead premium (0-3) is -41.8 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 2.2 US dollars [3] - The price of lead concentrate 50%-60% in Jiyuan is 16,104 yuan, with a decrease of 50 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,570 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 90 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 73.25%, with a decrease of 2.4 percentage points; the output of primary lead this week is 35,300 tons, with an increase of 1,500 tons [3] - The processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports is -70 US dollars/kiloton, with a decrease of 10 US dollars; the lead supply and demand balance of ILZSG is 16,400 tons, with an increase of 48,800 tons [3] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG is 399,700 tons, with a decrease of 3,700 tons; the lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, with an increase of 24,800 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, with a decrease of 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, with an increase of 223.33 tons; the average market price of waste batteries is 10,083.93 yuan/ton, with an increase of 25 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The export volume of lead-acid batteries is 41.45 million pieces, with a decrease of 425,000 pieces; the average price of lead-antimony alloy (for lead-acid batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,900 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 yuan [3] - The Shenwan industry index of the battery industry is 2,017.67 points, with a decrease of 23.68 points; the automobile output is 2.51 million vehicles, with a decrease of 298,600 vehicles [3] - The new energy vehicle output is 1.647 million vehicles, with an increase of 73,000 vehicles [3] Industry News - Trump's camp calls for an investigation into Fed Governor Cook, and Cook refuses to resign [3] - The Fed's July meeting minutes show that most officials believe it is appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged [3] - Israel decides not to respond to the ceasefire plan for the time being, and the Israeli military has entered the first stage of the planned attack on Gaza City [3] - Russia does not accept NATO's so-called "peacekeeping force" in Ukraine [3] View Summary - The output of primary lead fluctuates slightly, and the supply of recycled lead shows regional differences. The supply of waste battery raw materials is tight, and the overall supply is tight [3] - Anhui's sewage inspection affects local recycled lead production, increasing supply uncertainty [3] - The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in the lead-acid battery field. Although the traditional peak season is approaching, the actual demand has not increased significantly and is still in the stage of slow recovery [3] - The inventory has decreased slightly recently, indicating an improvement in overall demand. The lead-acid battery industry is about to enter the peak season, and demand is expected to gradually strengthen, supporting lead prices [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level. The option market sentiment has turned bullish, with a slight increase in implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line above the 0 - axis and the green column converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 82,760 yuan/ton, up 1,780 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 142,510 lots, down 3,052 lots; the position of the main contract is 390,069 lots, down 5,033 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is 820 yuan/ton, up 660 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 24,045 lots, up 430 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 85,200 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 82,900 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 2,440 yuan/ton, down 2,280 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 980 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 8,275 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,600 tons, up 500 tons; the monthly import volume is 13,845.31 tons, down 3,852.31 tons; the monthly export volume is 366.35 tons, down 63.31 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 48%, down 4 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, up 4,600 MWh [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 131,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, up 1 percentage point; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 51%, down 1 percentage point [2] - The monthly production of new - energy vehicles is 1,243,000 units, down 25,000 units; the monthly sales volume is 1,262,000 units, down 67,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 44.99%, up 0.68 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 8,220,000 units, up 2,286,000 units; the monthly export volume is 225,000 units, up 20,000 units; the cumulative export volume is 1.308 million units, up 600,000 units [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 159,626 contracts, up 14,286 contracts; the total put position is 146,399 contracts, down 1,225 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions is 91.71%, down 9.8577 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.44%, up 0.0080 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From August 1 - 17, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 866,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 2% compared with the same period in August last year and an 8% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 13.611 million units, a year - on - year increase of 10%. The retail sales of the national passenger car new - energy market were 502,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 9% compared with the same period in August last year and a 12% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the national passenger car new - energy market was 58.0%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 6.958 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28% [2] - From January - July 2025, the top ten SUV manufacturers in terms of sales sold a total of 5.599 million vehicles, accounting for 67.2% of the total SUV sales. Among these ten enterprises, the sales of Tesla and GAC Toyota decreased to varying degrees compared with the same period last year, while the sales of other enterprises increased to varying degrees [2] - Premier African Minerals announced that its Zulu lithium project has made a major breakthrough, and the plant has moved from the commissioning phase to the refining optimization phase [2] - Sigma Lithium's lithium concentrate production in the second quarter reached 68,368 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38%, exceeding the quarterly target of 67,500 tons; the full - sustaining cost dropped to 594 US dollars/ton, lower than the target value of 660 US dollars [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current bond market lacks a new main - line driver. The strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, suppressing bond market sentiment, especially increasing the selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds and widening the spread between long - and short - term yields. The "stock - strong, bond - weak" linkage effect has intensified. In the short term, liquidity factors may become the core logic guiding bond market trading. The issuance of new 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds on August 22 may trigger a switch of the CTD bonds for far - month contracts under the policy of levying VAT on interest from interest - rate bonds. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the widening of the inter - period spread brought by the issuance of new bonds [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market a. Futures Prices and Volumes - T主力收盘价108.000，环比上涨0.06%，成交量63938，环比增加11704；TF主力收盘价105.450，环比上涨0.06%，成交量38506，环比减少16805；TS主力收盘价102.326，环比持平，成交量36357，环比增加5932；TL主力收盘价116.110，环比上涨0.34%，成交量62804，环比减少37112 [2] b. Futures Spreads - Multiple futures spreads showed changes, such as the TL2512 - 2509 spread increasing by 0.05 to - 0.46, while the T12 - TL12 spread decreasing by 0.42 to - 8.11 [2] c. Futures Positions - T主力持仓量57904，环比减少11640；TF主力持仓量50434，环比减少12248；TS主力持仓量35544，环比减少7131；TL主力持仓量40766，环比减少7308. The net short positions of different contracts also had corresponding changes [2] 2. Bond Market a. CTD Bonds - The net prices of several CTD bonds changed, with most showing a decline, such as 2500802.IB (6y) dropping to 98.8632, a decrease of 0.1253 [2] b. Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of active treasury bonds with different maturities changed, with the yields of 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y increasing by 0.50bp, 1.25bp, 1.75bp, and 1.40bp respectively, while the 1y yield remained unchanged [2] c. Short - term Interest Rates - Short - term interest rates such as silver - pledged overnight and Shibor overnight decreased, while the silver - pledged 14 - day rate remained unchanged [2] d. LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2] 3. Public Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market operations was 2530 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 1287 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2] 4. Industry News - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13583.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.7%, and the securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 62.5%. The August LPR quotation remained stable. The yields of treasury bonds strengthened on Thursday, and the treasury futures also showed an upward trend. Domestically, economic data in July showed a mixed performance, and overseas, the Sino - US tariff suspension period was extended by 90 days, and the Fed's July meeting minutes showed a hawkish monetary policy [2] 5. Key Events to Watch - On August 21 at 21:00, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 16 was to be released. On August 22 at 22:00, Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [3]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 21, 2025 - Report Type: Freight Index (European Line) Futures Daily Report Key Data Futures Market - EC2510 (Main Contract) Closing Price: 1325.00, down 33.8 [1] - EC2512 Closing Price: 1721.4, down 48.2 [1] - EC2510-EC2512 Spread: -420.90, up 0.00 [1] - EC2510-EC2602 Spread: -177.00, up 0.00 [1] - EC Contract Basis: 825.17, up 0.00 [1] - EC Main Contract Open Interest: 54,293, up 2,566 [1] Spot Market - SCFIS (European Line) (Weekly): 2180.17, down 55.31 [1] - SCFIS (US West Coast Line) (Weekly): 1106.29, down 24.15 [1] - SCFI (Composite Index) (Weekly): 1460.19, down 29.49 [1] - CCFI (Composite Index) (Weekly): 1193.34, down 7.39 [1] - CCFI (European Line) (Weekly): 1790.47, down 8.58 [1] - Baltic Dry Index (Daily): 1927.00, up 37.00 [1] - Panamax Freight Index (Daily): 1665.00, down 28.00 [1] - Average Charter Price (Panamax Vessel): 13789.00, down 98.00 [1] - Average Charter Price (Cape Vessel): 21200.00, down 786.00 [1] Core View - On Thursday, the freight index (European line) futures prices fell collectively, with the main contract EC2510 down 2.49% and the far-month contracts down 1-3% [1] - The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 2180.17, down 55.31 points from last week, a 2.5% week-on-week decline [1] - The top shipping companies launched a "price war" to compete for off-season cargo volume, and the market expectation turned cold [1] - US President Trump's plan to impose tariffs on steel, chips, and semiconductors increased the uncertainty of global trade [1] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September decreased marginally, while the ECB had more flexibility in its interest rate policy [1] - Overall, the uncertainty of the trade war remained, the demand expectation of the freight index (European line) was weak, and the futures price fluctuated greatly [1] Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, and there were differences among Fed officials on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [1] - US President Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign, and the FHFA Director accused Cook of mortgage fraud [1] - ECB President Lagarde said that the eurozone's economic growth might slow down this quarter, and the global trade situation remained unclear [1] - The Indonesian central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5% for the fourth time this year [1] Upcoming Data Releases - UK August Gfk Consumer Confidence Index on August 22 at 07:01 [1] - Japan July Core CPI Annual Rate on August 22 at 07:30 [1] - Germany Second Quarter Unadjusted GDP Annual Rate Final Value on August 22 at 14:00 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The utilization rate of domestic tire production capacity fluctuated slightly last week. Some large semi-steel tire enterprises had about one - week maintenance, dragging down the overall enterprise production capacity utilization rate. The full - steel tire maintenance enterprises resumed work, driving up the full - steel tire production capacity utilization rate. There is still a slight upward space for the production capacity utilization rate as the maintenance enterprises gradually resume work, but the overall order performance is average, and enterprises will continue to control production, which will limit the increase in the overall production capacity utilization rate. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,450 - 12,900 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15,720 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12,600 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 1,000 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 65 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The trading volume and net positions of the main contracts of both types of rubber changed, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of Shanghai market state - owned whole latex and Vietnam 3L increased by 200 yuan/ton. The prices of Thai and Malaysian standard rubbers decreased by 15 US dollars/ton. The prices of Thai and Malaysian RMB mixed rubbers decreased by 120 yuan/ton. The prices of齐鲁石化's butadiene - styrene and cis - butadiene rubbers remained unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products changed, and the price of 20 - number rubber in Qingdao market decreased [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets, films, and cup rubber) decreased, while the price of glue remained unchanged. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 increased, while that of STR20 decreased. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber decreased, while that of mixed rubber increased. The weekly opening rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires changed [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong increased. The monthly output of full - steel and semi - steel tires increased [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying decreased, and the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options decreased [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (August 17 - 23, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period, reducing the impact on rubber tapping. As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.31 million tons, with a decrease of 0.50%. The inventory in the bonded area increased by 2.12%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.87%. The inventory in Qingdao continued to decline, with the bonded warehouse accumulating inventory and the general trade warehouse continuing to reduce inventory. The arrival and warehousing of overseas goods increased, but the tire enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm decreased [2].