Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the black - series commodities still oscillated at the bottom. The actual terminal demand for steel remains weak, and the short - term macro level is in a policy window period. Future attention should be paid to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their marginal impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - With the end of the year - end shipping rush by mines, the overseas iron ore shipping volume has continued to decline. The daily average pig iron output has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and future attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking and pig iron production rhythm [6]. - The commodity bullish sentiment may continue, especially in the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. However, the short - term high - volatility risk caused by sentiment leaders such as silver and lithium carbonate should be guarded against. The future market trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply - contraction expectations [10][11]. - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue to support the rebound of coking coal and coke. However, the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced, and the downstream inventory is low, with a certain restocking tendency. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [17]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there are new supply - side disturbances in the northwest. The polysilicon price is expected to consolidate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and official policies [20][23]. - The glass price has been boosted by the reduction in melting volume and the increase in fuel costs, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. The soda ash supply is under pressure, the demand is weak, and the market remains weak [26][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3165 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.667%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1212 tons to 54421 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 11840 lots to 172.67 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3311 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.516%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 112237 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 10408 lots to 142.75 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy Views - The hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory continued to decline slightly. The rebar production increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory increased slightly. The black - series commodities are sensitive to news changes, and future attention should be paid to the hot - rolled coil de - stocking, "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern [3]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The iron ore main contract (I2605) closed at 822.50 yuan/ton, up 0.98% (8.00 yuan). The positions increased by 14950 lots to 65.48 million lots. The weighted positions were 98.37 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 829 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.09 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.70% [5]. Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipping volume has continued to decline, with a large drop in Brazilian shipments. The shipments of Rio Tinto and BHP decreased, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries increased. The near - term arrivals continued to increase. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output was 229.5 tons, continuing to rise. The blast furnace utilization rate increased, and the steel mill profitability decreased slightly. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, higher than the same period in previous years. The steel mills' imported ore inventory increased but remained at a low level, with a certain restocking demand. The ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and future attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking and pig iron production rhythm [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 12, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) closed up 0.44% at 5930 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of 10 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 1.17% at 5698 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 152 yuan/ton [9]. Strategy Views - The commodity bullish sentiment may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still unfavorable, but most factors have been priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement. Future market trends are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply - contraction expectations [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On January 12, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) closed up 3.55% at 1238.0 yuan/ton. The coke main contract (J2605) closed up 1.26% at 1770.0 yuan/ton [13]. Strategy Views - The recent strength of coking coal was driven by the positive commodity market sentiment and the news of capacity reduction in Yulin. The commodity bullish sentiment may continue to support the rebound of coking coal and coke, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the downstream inventory is low, with a certain restocking tendency. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [16][17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2605) closed at 8755 yuan/ton, up 0.46% (40 yuan). The weighted positions decreased by 4994 lots to 374981 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 445 yuan/ton; the 421 price was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 95 yuan/ton [19]. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2605) closed at 49995 yuan/ton, down 2.54% (1305 yuan). The weighted positions decreased by 6218 lots to 91068 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material was unchanged, with a basis of 5005 yuan/ton [21]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The production in December was stable. The supply improvement was limited, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon was weak. The price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [20]. - Polysilicon: The market was affected by anti - monopoly concerns and production reduction rumors. The price is expected to consolidate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and official policies [22][23]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 1143 yuan/ton, down 0.09% (1 yuan). The inventory decreased by 134.80 million boxes to 5551.8 million boxes. The positions of the top 20 long - holders decreased by 1305 lots, and the positions of the top 20 short - holders increased by 7357 lots [25]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 0.90% (11 yuan). The inventory increased by 16.44 tons to 157.27 tons. The positions of the top 20 long - holders increased by 2976 lots, and the positions of the top 20 short - holders increased by 17392 lots [27]. Strategy Views - Glass: The melting volume decreased, and the fuel cost increased, boosting the price. However, the high inventory restricted the upward space. Future attention should be paid to inventory digestion and actual transactions [26]. - Soda ash: The supply was stable, and the new production capacity was put into operation. The demand from photovoltaic and float glass decreased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market remained weak [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints - If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. The large holdings of silver ETFs will keep the available inventory of London silver at a low level. The silver premium in India has significantly rebounded at the beginning of the year, and the new silver mortgage regulations will take effect in April. It is expected that India's silver imports in the first quarter will significantly increase, providing strong support for the spot demand for silver. Therefore, the upward driving force for the silver price still exists. The current strategy is to focus on the support levels of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and conduct buy-on-dips operations after the short - term negative factors end. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 970 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16870 - 22000 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Quotes - On January 13, 2026, Shanghai gold rose 1.31% to 1030.26 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23% to 21268.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4608.80 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 85.16 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.19%, and the US dollar index was 98.90 [1] - The US federal prosecutor announced a criminal investigation into the current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which has greatly impacted the Fed's independence. If Powell resigns under pressure, the new Fed Chairman will start a fast - paced easing cycle, which has strongly boosted the prices of gold and silver [1] 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) on January 12, 2026, was 4608.80 US dollars/ounce, up 2.00% from January 9; the trading volume was 28.19 million lots, up 42.36%; the position was 48.81 million lots, up 1.30%; the inventory was 1129 tons, unchanged. LBMA gold's closing price was 4612.95 US dollars/ounce, up 2.65%. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) was 1026.28 yuan/gram, up 1.97%; the trading volume was 42.21 million lots, up 58.40%; the position was 33.34 million lots, up 4.65%; the inventory was 97.65 tons, unchanged; the settled funds were 54.747 billion yuan, an inflow of 6.71%. AuT + D's trading volume was 57.43 tons, up 77.11%; the position was 187.67 tons, up 1.27% [5] - **Silver**: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) on January 12, 2026, was 85.16 US dollars/ounce, up 6.72% from January 9; the position was 15.32 million lots, down 2.64%; the inventory was 13607 tons, down 0.51%. LBMA silver's closing price was 84.07 US dollars/ounce, up 7.59%. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) was 20945.00 yuan/kilogram, up 11.82%; the trading volume was 247.48 million lots, up 8.31%; the position was 71.48 million lots, up 5.44%; the inventory was 649.64 tons, up 4.74%; the settled funds were 40.422 billion yuan, an inflow of 17.90%. AgT + D's trading volume was 411.21 tons, up 33.37%; the position was 3042.48 tons, down 0.61% [5] 3.3 Market Structure and Spread - **Gold**: The near - far month structure of COMEX gold, the spread between London gold spot and COMEX gold continuous one, the near - far month structure of Shanghai gold, and the spread between Au(T + D) and Shanghai gold continuous one are presented in relevant charts [21][23] - **Silver**: The near - far month structure of COMEX silver, the spread between London silver and COMEX silver continuous one, the near - far month structure of Shanghai silver, and the spread between Ag(T + D) and Shanghai silver continuous one are presented in relevant charts [34][36] - **Internal - External Spread**: On January 12, 2026, the SHFE - COMEX spread of gold was - 11.41 yuan/gram (- 50.89 US dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was - 4.65 yuan/gram (- 20.76 US dollars/ounce). The SHFE - COMEX spread of silver was 2099.91 yuan/kilogram (9.37 US dollars/ounce) [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February and the full realization of the increased production's negative impact. The domestic sugar price has limited downside space in the short - term, and it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - For cotton, affected by the expected reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation rate, the price may fluctuate more significantly after reaching a high level. It's recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long [8]. - For protein meal, the bottom of import cost may have emerged, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. With the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China possibly discussing canola tariffs and large domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, it's advisable to wait and see in the short - term [12]. - For oils, the current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom range [15]. - For eggs, the near - month contracts can be shorted on rebounds, and attention should be paid to the pressure on the far - month contracts after over - valuation [18]. - For pigs, in the short - term, the near - month contracts may be strong, but in the medium - term, it's advisable to short on rebounds. For the far - end contracts, it's advisable to buy on dips [21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 5285 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day. The new sugar prices of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups changed slightly. The Brazilian sugar export volume in December was 291.3 million tons, with an increase of 8 million tons year - on - year and a decrease of 39 million tons month - on - month. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased, and the waiting sugar volume also increased [2][3]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the northern hemisphere's harvest in February and the full realization of the increased production's negative impact. The international sugar price may rebound. The domestic sugar price has limited downside space in the short - term, and it's advisable to wait and see [4]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract was 14625 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day. The Brazilian cotton export volume in December was 45 million tons, with an increase of 10 million tons year - on - year and 5 million tons month - on - month. The US cotton export sales data showed a year - on - year decrease. The spinning mill's operation rate was 64.7%, and the national cotton commercial inventory was 557 million tons, with an increase of 29 million tons year - on - year [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Affected by the expected reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation rate, the price may fluctuate more significantly after reaching a high level. It's recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long [8]. Protein Meal - **Market Information**: On Monday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2790 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day, and the May rapeseed meal contract was 2330 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.34%. The US soybean export volume decreased week - on - week, and the domestic soybean arrival volume and port inventory decreased. The soybean oil mill's operation rate decreased year - on - year, and the soybean meal inventory decreased week - on - week [10][11]. - **Strategy**: The bottom of import cost may have emerged, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. With the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China possibly discussing canola tariffs and large domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, it's advisable to wait and see in the short - term [12]. Oils - **Market Information**: On Monday, the oils futures price fluctuated. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increased in December, and the production decreased. The domestic three - major oils inventory was 208 million tons, with an increase of 15.86 million tons year - on - year and a decrease of 7.02 million tons week - on - week [13]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom range [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Most regions' egg prices rose yesterday, with normal supply and good downstream demand. It's expected that the egg price may be stable or rise today [17]. - **Strategy**: The near - month contracts can be shorted on rebounds, and attention should be paid to the pressure on the far - month contracts after over - valuation [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price showed different trends yesterday. The northern market showed resistance to price drops, and the southern market may have a slight increase [20]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the near - month contracts may be strong, but in the medium - term, it's advisable to short on rebounds. For the far - end contracts, it's advisable to buy on dips [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the pattern will improve marginally next year with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressure, geopolitical instability in Iran brings expectations, making it feasible to go long on dips [3]. - For urea, the current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are coming, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [6]. - For crude oil, the current Latin American geopolitical situation is not strongly positive for overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will be significantly increased. The valuation of heavy - oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [7]. - For rubber, currently, a bearish mindset is adopted. If RU2605 breaks below 16,000, a short - term bearish strategy is adopted. It is recommended to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is strong on the supply side and weak on the demand side. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end. In the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained before substantial production cuts [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently moderately low, with large room for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed out. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. - For polypropylene, the cost side shows that global oil inventories are expected to decline slightly, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out in Q1 next year [26]. - For PX, the current load is high, and downstream PTA is under maintenance. It is expected to maintain a slight inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude - oil price [29]. - For PTA, the supply side will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand side will face pressure. It is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage after the Spring Festival. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips [32][33]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. The supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. In the medium term, the valuation may need to be compressed [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude - oil futures rose 11.70 yuan/barrel, or 2.75%, to 437.50 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that total refined - oil inventories increased by 0.51 million barrels to 45.15 million barrels, a 1.15% increase month - on - month [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation is not strongly positive for overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will be significantly increased. The valuation of heavy - oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [7]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 20 yuan/ton, in Lunan by - 5 yuan/ton, in Henan by 5 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2263 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was 86 yuan [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, and the pattern will improve marginally next year with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressure, geopolitical instability in Iran brings expectations, making it feasible to go long on dips [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in other regions remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 43 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 6 yuan/ton to 1783 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are coming, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price showed signs of weakening. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 8, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.54%, up 0.60 percentage points from last week and down 1.60 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 68.00%, down 1.73 percentage points from last week and down 10.65 percentage points from the same period last year [9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, a bearish mindset is adopted. If RU2605 breaks below 16,000, a short - term bearish strategy is adopted. It is recommended to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 43 yuan to 4940 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4620 yuan/ton. The basis was - 320 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 110 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 79.7%, up 1% month - on - month. Factory inventory was 32.8 million tons (+1.9), and social inventory was 111.4 million tons (+3.7) [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is strong on the supply side and weak on the demand side. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end. In the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained before substantial production cuts [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged at 5320 yuan/ton, and the futures price was also unchanged. The basis narrowed. The spot price of styrene decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 6950 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 88 yuan/ton to 6895 yuan/ton. The basis weakened. The upstream operating rate of the supply side was 70.92%, up 0.22%. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.65 million tons [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently moderately low, with large room for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6674 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6525 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis weakened by 46 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, up 0.04% month - on - month. Production - enterprise inventory increased by 2.47 million tons to 39.54 million tons, and trader inventory increased by 0.17 million tons to 2.93 million tons [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed out. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6514 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis weakened by 30 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, down 1.03% month - on - month. Production - enterprise inventory decreased by 2.3 million tons to 46.77 million tons, trader inventory increased by 2.75 million tons to 20.47 million tons, and port inventory increased by 0.48 million tons to 7.11 million tons [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side shows that global oil inventories are expected to decline slightly, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out in Q1 next year [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 70 yuan to 7308 yuan. PX CFR rose 5 US dollars to 897 US dollars. The Chinese PX load was 90.9%, up 0.3% month - on - month, and the Asian load was 81.2%, up 0.3% month - on - month. In early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 14.6 million tons, up 0.7 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 402 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons month - on - month [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and downstream PTA is under maintenance. It is expected to maintain a slight inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude - oil price [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 34 yuan to 5142 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 65 yuan to 5100 yuan. The basis was - 58 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 48 yuan. The PTA load was 78.2%, up 0.1% month - on - month. The downstream load was 90.8%, unchanged. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 4 was 203 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply side will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand side will face pressure. It is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage after the Spring Festival. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips [32][33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 14 yuan to 3880 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 20 yuan to 3697 yuan. The basis was - 150 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 94 yuan. The ethylene - glycol load was 73.9%, up 0.2% month - on - month. The port inventory was 80.2 million tons, an increase of 7.7 million tons [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall load is still high, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. The supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. In the medium term, the valuation may need to be compressed [35].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural products options market shows a mixed trend. Oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, while some agricultural by - products and soft commodities are also in a volatile range. For example, sugar has a slight fluctuation, cotton is in a strong consolidation, and corn and starch are in a narrow - range bullish consolidation. [2] - The recommended strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly composed of sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered call strategies to enhance returns. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various agricultural product futures contracts. For instance, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2603) is 4,305, with a decrease of 29 and a decline rate of 0.67%. [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The PCR indicators (volume PCR and open - interest PCR) of different option varieties are presented. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.35, with a change of - 0.02, and the open - interest PCR is 0.95, with a change of 0.01. [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,500, and the support level is 4,000. [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties is given, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 14.17%, and the weighted implied volatility is 15.99%, with a change of 0.60%. [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations - **Oilseeds and Oils Options**: For soybean No.1, the market shows a short - term bullish rebound with pressure. The recommended strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging. [7] - **Meal Options**: For soybean meal, the market is in a rebound after an over - decline. The recommended strategies are similar to those of soybean No.1, such as constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging. [9] - **Agricultural By - product Options**: For example, for live pigs, the market is in a weak bearish rebound with pressure. The recommended strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot. [10] - **Soft Commodity Options**: For sugar, the market is in a weak bearish rebound with pressure. The recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging. [12] - **Grain Options**: For corn, the market is in a rebound with support. The recommended strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy. [13]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a financial options strategy morning report dated January 12, 2026 [1] - The stock market shows a bullish upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks performing well [3] - The implied volatility of financial options has declined to a level below the historical average [3] Group 2: Market Index Data Financial Market Important Indexes - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,120.43, up 0.92% with a trading volume of 128.92 billion yuan and an increase of 10.6 billion yuan in trading volume [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,120.15, up 1.15% with a trading volume of 183.35 billion yuan and an increase of 21.64 billion yuan in trading volume [4] - The SSE 50 Index closed at 3,134.32, up 0.39% with a trading volume of 17.77 billion yuan and a decrease of 1.02 billion yuan in trading volume [4] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,758.92, up 0.45% with a trading volume of 66.88 billion yuan and an increase of 3.81 billion yuan in trading volume [4] - The CSI 500 Index closed at 8,056.69, up 2.05% with a trading volume of 63.11 billion yuan and an increase of 6.67 billion yuan in trading volume [4] - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 8,129.18, up 1.98% with a trading volume of 70.53 billion yuan and an increase of 9.99 billion yuan in trading volume [4] Option - underlying ETF Market - The SSE 50 ETF closed at 3.209, up 0.34% with a trading volume of 6.0138 million shares and an increase of 2.85 billion yuan in trading volume [5] - The SSE 300 ETF closed at 4.885, up 0.45% with a trading volume of 11.3486 million shares and an increase of 22.11 billion yuan in trading volume [5] - The SSE 500 ETF closed at 8.216, up 2.39% with a trading volume of 5.252 million shares and an increase of 12.19 billion yuan in trading volume [5] - The Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.554, up 1.50% with a trading volume of 34.7376 million shares and a decrease of 1.72 billion yuan in trading volume [5] - The E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.505, up 1.48% with a trading volume of 12.8898 million shares and a decrease of 0.19 billion yuan in trading volume [5] - The Shenzhen 300 ETF closed at 4.966, up 0.44% with a trading volume of 2.2211 million shares and an increase of 2.64 billion yuan in trading volume [5] - The Shenzhen 500 ETF closed at 3.240, up 2.34% with a trading volume of 1.8871 million shares and an increase of 3.25 billion yuan in trading volume [5] - The Shenzhen 100 ETF closed at 3.529, up 0.77% with a trading volume of 0.6612 million shares and an increase of 0.07 billion yuan in trading volume [5] - The ChiNext ETF closed at 3.314, up 0.82% with a trading volume of 15.4515 million shares and an increase of 14.55 billion yuan in trading volume [5] Option Factors - Volume and Position PCR - For the SSE 50 ETF option, the trading volume PCR is 0.64 (down 0.16), and the position PCR is 0.98 (up 0.02) [6] - For the SSE 300 ETF option, the trading volume PCR is 0.86 (down 0.05), and the position PCR is 1.04 (up 0.05) [6] - For the SSE 500 ETF option, the trading volume PCR is 0.86 (down 0.06), and the position PCR is 1.41 (up 0.02) [6] - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the trading volume PCR is 0.69 (up 0.01), and the position PCR is 0.95 (up 0.01) [6] - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the trading volume PCR is 0.75 (up 0.15), and the position PCR is 0.93 (down 0.01) [6] - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the trading volume PCR is 0.79 (down 0.29), and the position PCR is 0.87 (down 0.03) [6] - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the trading volume PCR is 1.06 (up 0.08), and the position PCR is 1.01 (up 0.04) [6] - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the trading volume PCR is 1.44 (up 0.43), and the position PCR is 1.37 (up 0.13) [6] - For the ChiNext ETF option, the trading volume PCR is 0.71 (down 0.14), and the position PCR is 1.10 (up 0.01) [6] - For the SSE 50 index option, the trading volume PCR is 0.40 (down 0.02), and the position PCR is 0.70 (down 0.02) [6] - For the CSI 300 index option, the trading volume PCR is 0.44 (down 0.04), and the position PCR is 0.74 (down 0.01) [6] - For the CSI 1000 index option, the trading volume PCR is 0.70 (down 0.06), and the position PCR is 1.24 (up 0.08) [6] Option Factors - Pressure and Support Points - For the SSE 50 ETF, the pressure point is 3.20, and the support point is 3.10 [8] - For the SSE 300 ETF, the pressure point is 4.90, and the support point is 4.80 [8] - For the SSE 500 ETF, the pressure point is 8.25, and the support point is 7.50 [8] - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF, the pressure point is 1.60, and the support point is 1.40 [8] - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF, the pressure point is 1.55, and the support point is 1.35 [8] - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF, the pressure point is 4.90, and the support point is 4.90 [8] - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF, the pressure point is 3.30, and the support point is 3.10 [8] - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF, the pressure point is 3.50, and the support point is 3.50 [8] - For the ChiNext ETF, the pressure point is 3.30, and the support point is 3.10 [8] - For the SSE 50 index, the pressure point is 3,150, and the support point is 3,000 [8] - For the CSI 300 index, the pressure point is 4,750, and the support point is 4,650 [8] - For the CSI 1000 index, the pressure point is 8,000, and the support point is 7,700 [8] Option Factors - Implied Volatility - For the SSE 50 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 15.99%, the weighted implied volatility is 16.30% (up 0.40%), the annual average is 16.11%, the call implied volatility is 16.78%, the put implied volatility is 15.39%, the HISV20 is 12.50%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 3.80% [11] - For the SSE 300 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 17.21%, the weighted implied volatility is 16.97% (up 0.69%), the annual average is 16.76%, the call implied volatility is 17.44%, the put implied volatility is 16.40%, the HISV20 is 14.28%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 2.68% [11] - For the SSE 500 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 23.93%, the weighted implied volatility is 24.32% (up 2.34%), the annual average is 20.67%, the call implied volatility is 24.78%, the put implied volatility is 23.67%, the HISV20 is 17.59%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 6.73% [11] - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 33.06%, the weighted implied volatility is 31.96% (up 0.88%), the annual average is 34.16%, the call implied volatility is 32.18%, the put implied volatility is 31.51%, the HISV20 is 25.96%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 6.00% [11] - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 32.85%, the weighted implied volatility is 32.83% (up 0.72%), the annual average is 35.05%, the call implied volatility is 33.14%, the put implied volatility is 32.15%, the HISV20 is 26.56%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 6.27% [11] - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 17.41%, the weighted implied volatility is 19.35% (up 0.86%), the annual average is 19.21%, the call implied volatility is 19.87%, the put implied volatility is 18.57%, the HISV20 is 13.28%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 6.07% [11] - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 23.77%, the weighted implied volatility is 25.50% (up 2.51%), the annual average is 22.71%, the call implied volatility is 24.99%, the put implied volatility is 26.25%, the HISV20 is 17.88%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 7.62% [11] - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 20.15%, the weighted implied volatility is 24.89% (up 1.78%), the annual average is 28.05%, the call implied volatility is 24.83%, the put implied volatility is 25.00%, the HISV20 is 19.46%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 5.44% [11] - For the ChiNext ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 27.91%, the weighted implied volatility is 27.94% (up 0.42%), the annual average is 31.42%, the call implied volatility is 28.33%, the put implied volatility is 27.35%, the HISV20 is 25.58%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 2.36% [11] - For the SSE 50 index option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 16.53%, the weighted implied volatility is 16.86% (down 0.15%), the annual average is 16.69%, the call implied volatility is 17.14%, the put implied volatility is 16.16%, the HISV20 is 12.97%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 3.90% [11] - For the CSI 300 index option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 17.05%, the weighted implied volatility is 17.00% (up 0.40%), the annual average is 16.85%, the call implied volatility is 17.09%, the put implied volatility is 16.80%, the HISV20 is 14.67%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 2.33% [11] - For the CSI 1000 index option, the at - the - money implied volatility is 23.79%, the weighted implied volatility is 24.77% (up 2.52%), the annual average is 21.69%, the call implied volatility is 24.37%, the put implied volatility is 25.37%, the HISV20 is 17.88%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 6.90% [11] Group 3: Strategy and Recommendations Overall Strategy - The financial options sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - sized boards, and ChiNext. Different strategies are recommended for each sector [13] Sector - specific Strategies Financial Stocks (SSE 50 ETF) - The SSE 50 ETF shows a bullish trend with support below. The implied volatility is below the average, the position PCR is around 1.00, the pressure point is 3.20, and the support point is 3.10 [14] - Recommended strategies include constructing a bull - spread call option strategy, a short - volatility strategy with a bullish bias, and a covered call strategy [14] Large - cap Blue - chip Stocks (SSE 300 ETF) - The SSE 300 ETF shows a moderately bullish trend with support below. The implied volatility is below the average, the position PCR is around 1.00, the pressure point is 4.80, and the support point is 4.70 [14] - Recommended strategies include constructing a bull - spread call option strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a covered call strategy [14] Small and Medium - sized Stocks (SSE 500 ETF) - The SSE 500 ETF shows a moderately bullish trend with support below. The implied volatility is below the historical average, the position PCR is above 1.00, the pressure point is 8.00, and the support point is 7.50 [15] - Recommended strategies include constructing a bull - spread call option strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a covered call strategy [15] Medium - sized Stocks (Shenzhen 100 ETF) - The Shenzhen 100 ETF shows a bullish trend with high - level oscillations. The implied volatility is around the average, the position PCR is above 1.00, the pressure point is 3.40, and the support point is 3.30 [15] - Recommended strategies include a short - volatility strategy and a covered call strategy [15] ChiNext (ChiNext ETF) - The ChiNext ETF shows a bullish trend with a rebound from oversold conditions. The implied volatility is at a high level, the position PCR is above 1.00, the pressure point is 3.20, and the support point is 3.00 [16] - Recommended strategies include a short - volatility strategy and a covered call strategy [16] Small and Medium - sized Stocks (CSI 1000) - The CSI 1000 index shows a moderately bullish trend with support below. The implied volatility is below the average, the position PCR is above 1.00, the pressure point is 7800, and the support point is 7000 [16] - Recommended

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a seller's neutral volatility strategy can be constructed as they tend to move upwards [2]. - For the black - series, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable due to their large - scale fluctuations [2]. - For precious metals, a bull spread combination strategy can be built as they are rebounding [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents data on the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2602) is 102,220, with a price increase of 1,940 and a trading volume of 30.38 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR**: The report provides the volume - to - open - interest PCR data for different metal options, which helps describe the strength and potential turning points of the underlying asset's market. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.58, with a change of 0.05 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: The pressure and support levels of each option's underlying asset are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure point of copper is 110,000, and the support point is 98,000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: It shows the implied volatility data of various metal options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper options is 31.57% [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations for Each Metal - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Based on fundamental and market analysis, directional, volatility, and spot hedging strategies are proposed. For example, a bull spread combination strategy can be constructed for directional trading, and a short - volatility seller option combination strategy for volatility trading [8]. - **Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Tin, and Lithium Carbonate**: Similar to copper, strategies for each metal are provided according to their fundamentals, market trends, and option factors [10][11][12]. - **Precious Metals** - **Silver**: Considering its fundamentals and market performance, a neutral short - volatility option seller combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [13]. - **Black - Series** - **Rebar, Iron Ore, Ferroalloys, Industrial Silicon, and Glass**: Strategies for each product in the black - series are given, including directional, volatility, and spot hedging strategies, based on their supply - demand situations and market trends [14][15][16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies focus on constructing option portfolios mainly with sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various energy - chemical futures, such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2603) is 438, with a price increase of 11 and a rise - fall rate of 2.67% [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: This factor is used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the open - interest PCR of crude oil options is 0.48, with a change of 0.05 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: Determined from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure point of crude oil is 540, and the support point is 400 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: It includes at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 31.415%, and the weighted implied volatility is 43.66% with a change of 1.47% [6]. 3.3 Option Strategies for Different Products - **Crude Oil**: - Fundamental analysis: OPEC + is expected to maintain the original production suspension policy. Nigeria's crude oil + condensate production in November 2025 reached 1.6 million barrels per day, with a month - on - month increase of 1.3% [7]. - Market analysis: After a significant decline in October, crude oil rebounded and then fell back, showing a weak rebound trend [7]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates below the average level; the open - interest PCR is below 0.70, indicating a weak market; the pressure point is 450, and the support point is 400 [7]. - Strategy suggestions: For directional strategies, there is none; for volatility strategies, construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; for spot long - hedging strategies, construct a long collar strategy [7]. - **LPG**: - Fundamental analysis: There is no significant increase in supply, and the chemical demand supports the price [9]. - Market analysis: It shows a volatile downward trend with pressure above [9]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the average level; the open - interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market; the pressure point is 4300, and the support point is 4000 [9]. - Strategy suggestions: For directional strategies, there is none; for volatility strategies, construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; for spot long - hedging strategies, construct a long collar strategy [9]. - **Methanol**: - Fundamental analysis: China's methanol production and capacity utilization are expected to increase slightly, and there are import and domestic trade volume estimates [9]. - Market analysis: It shows an oversold rebound trend with pressure above [9]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average level; the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market; the pressure point is 2300, and the support point is 2100 [9]. - Strategy suggestions: For directional strategies, there is none; for volatility strategies, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; for spot long - hedging strategies, construct a long collar strategy [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: - Fundamental analysis: The polyester load remains stable, and there are some device maintenance and restart situations [10]. - Market analysis: It shows a weak downward trend and then a volatile rebound [10]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates above the average level and is rising; the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - side strength; the pressure point is 3800, and the support point is 3600 [10]. - Strategy suggestions: For directional strategies, there is none; for volatility strategies, construct a short - volatility strategy; for spot long - hedging strategies, hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. - **PVC**: - Fundamental analysis: Inventory is accumulating, and the supply - demand pattern is weak [10]. - Market analysis: It shows a downward trend and then a rebound with short - side pressure above [10]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility declines to below the average level; the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a continuous weakening market; the pressure point is 5000, and the support point is 4300 [10]. - Strategy suggestions: For directional strategies, construct a bullish call spread combination strategy; for volatility strategies, there is none; for spot long - hedging strategies, hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. - **Rubber**: - Fundamental analysis: There are changes in warehouse receipts and inventory levels [11]. - Market analysis: It shows a warming - up and rising trend with support below and pressure above [11]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility gradually returns to around the average level; the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak overall market; the pressure point is 17000, and the support point is 14000 [11]. - Strategy suggestions: For directional strategies, there is none; for volatility strategies, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging strategies, there is none [11]. - **PTA**: - Fundamental analysis: The PTA load is slightly increasing, and there are few device changes [11]. - Market analysis: It shows an oversold rebound and a short - term strong trend [11]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively low average level; the open - interest PCR is above 1.00, indicating a strong market; the pressure point is 4750, and the support point is 4400 [11]. - Strategy suggestions: For directional strategies, there is none; for volatility strategies, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging strategies, there is none [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: - Fundamental analysis: The capacity utilization rate of large - scale caustic soda enterprises is increasing, with regional differences [12]. - Market analysis: It shows a weak short - side trend with pressure above [12]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level; the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market; the pressure point is 2320, and the support point is 2040 [12]. - Strategy suggestions: For directional strategies, construct a bearish spread combination strategy; for volatility strategies, there is none; for spot collar hedging strategies, hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [12]. - **Soda Ash**: - Fundamental analysis: Factory inventory is increasing, and the market is in a weak state [12]. - Market analysis: It shows a low - level weak volatile trend with pressure above and support below [12]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high historical level; the open - interest PCR is below 0.50, indicating a short - side market; the pressure point is 1300, and the support point is 1100 [12]. - Strategy suggestions: For directional strategies, there is none; for volatility strategies, construct a short - volatility combination strategy; for spot long - hedging strategies, construct a long collar strategy [12]. - **Urea**: - Fundamental analysis: The supply - demand difference is decreasing, and enterprise inventory is rising, but the market is still strong [13]. - Market analysis: It shows a short - term weak trend with pressure above [13]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively low historical average level; the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - side pressure; the pressure point is 1700, and the support point is 1640 [13]. - Strategy suggestions: For directional strategies, there is none; for volatility strategies, construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging strategies, hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the copper market is still warm, with strong support from the tight supply of copper mines and the strength of LME spot. It is expected that the price will fluctuate and rise in the short term [2][3]. - The aluminum price is expected to remain strong, supported by positive factors such as the low overseas inventory and the improvement of the domestic spot market [4]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to run strongly in the short term due to the strong cost - side price and continuous supply - side disturbances [7][8]. - The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector, influenced by the current industrial situation and market sentiment [9][10]. - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous metal sector sentiment, with potential for a significant catch - up increase compared to copper and aluminum [11][12]. - The tin price is expected to fluctuate according to market risk preference in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [14][16]. - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [17]. - The lithium carbonate price is in a bullish trend, but the rapid rise increases the risk of correction. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [19][21]. - The alumina price is expected to be mainly observed in the short term, and it is advisable to wait for an opportunity to short the near - month contracts at high prices [23][24]. - The stainless - steel price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillating trend in the short term due to stable cost support, low supply from steel mills, and continuous inventory reduction [26][27]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The LME copper 3M closed up 2.07% to $12,965 per ton on Friday, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 102,220 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,100 tons to 138,975 tons, while the SHFE inventory increased significantly [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The policy is expected to remain in a loose direction, and the domestic manufacturing industry is improving. The supply of copper mines is tight, so the copper price is expected to fluctuate and rise in the short term. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 100,000 - 104,500 yuan per ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - $13,250 per ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rose after a decline, with the LME aluminum closing up 1.98% to $3,149 per ton on Friday, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closing at 24,465 yuan per ton. The SHFE aluminum weighted - contract positions increased, and inventory changes varied [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supported by macro - sentiment, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 24,100 - 24,800 yuan per ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,100 - $3,180 per ton [4][5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract AD2603 closed up 1.77% to 22,985 yuan per ton on Friday. The weighted - contract positions increased, and the inventory situation changed [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With strong cost - side prices and continuous supply - side disturbances, the price is expected to run strongly in the short term [7][8]. Lead - **Market Information**: The SHFE lead index closed up 0.14% to 17,381 yuan per ton last Friday, and the LME lead 3S rose to $2,040 per ton. Various price and inventory data are provided [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous metal sector sentiment, affected by the industrial situation and market sentiment [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The SHFE zinc index closed up 0.01% to 24,007 yuan per ton last Friday, and the LME zinc 3S fell to $3,152.5 per ton. Multiple price and inventory indicators are given [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry situation has not improved significantly, but it has a large potential for a catch - up increase compared to copper and aluminum. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely following the sector sentiment [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: The SHFE tin main contract closed at 352,540 yuan per ton on Friday, up 0.83%. The supply and demand situation and inventory changes are described [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate with market risk preference in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 310,000 - 370,000 yuan per ton, and for overseas LME tin is $43,000 - $47,000 per ton [14][16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 139,090 yuan per ton on January 10, up 1.94%. Spot prices, cost - side prices, and nickel - iron prices are reported [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel market has a large surplus pressure, but the domestic loose liquidity provides support. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan per ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,500 - $19,000 per ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On January 9, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index rose, and prices of different grades and contracts changed. The price of imported lithium concentrate also increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bullish trend continues, but the rapid rise increases the correction risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 139,500 - 148,500 yuan per ton [20][21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 9, the alumina index fell 0.65% to 2,830 yuan per ton. There were changes in positions, basis, and inventory. The ore prices decreased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina market faces multiple difficulties. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short the near - month contracts at high prices. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,450 - 2,950 yuan per ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,860 yuan per ton on Friday, up 1.35%. Spot prices, raw material prices, and inventory data are presented [26][27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Affected by the nickel price and market supply - demand, the price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillating trend in the short term [27].