Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Policy factors, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment all have significant impacts on prices. For example, the Fed's stance affects the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, and the "anti -内卷" policy impacts the iron alloy market. In the short term, most sectors are expected to be volatile, and investors need to pay attention to policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and market sentiment [3][6][33] Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promotes the application of satellite - connected terminal devices; global hedge funds increase their bets on Chinese stocks in August; 14 wealth management companies see a net increase of about 1.8 trillion yuan in management scale in July; Zhongji Xuchuang expects mass production and shipment of 1.6T products and samples of liquid - cooled products [2] - **Futures Basis Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios. The trading logic is that although the market may fluctuate in the short term after continuous rises, the general direction is to go long on dips [3] Treasury Bond - **Market**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. The national industrial enterprise profit from January to July decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and the Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to promote service exports. The central bank conducted 4058 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1745 billion yuan [4] - **Strategy**: The economy shows resilience in the first half of the year, but July's social financing and credit data are weaker than expected. Exports may face pressure. With the central bank's support, funds are expected to be loose. Interest rates may decline, but the stock - bond seesaw effect needs attention, and the bond market may be volatile in the short term [6] Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver all rose. The New York Fed Chairman's neutral - dovish stance increases the probability of a Fed rate cut. The market expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and December. Historically, gold benefits from fiscal deficits, and silver is driven by Fed easing expectations. It is recommended to go long on silver at low prices [7][8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: LME copper and Shanghai copper prices decline. LME copper inventory increases, and domestic copper inventory shows different trends. The Fed's dovish stance increases the probability of a September rate cut, but the equity market's optimism fades. Copper prices are expected to be strong and volatile [10][11] Aluminum - **Market**: LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum prices decline. Domestic aluminum inventory is low, and demand is expected to improve as the off - season transitions to the peak season. The Fed's dovish signal strengthens the expectation of a September rate cut. Aluminum prices are expected to be supported in the short term [12] Zinc - **Market**: Shanghai zinc index rises slightly, and LME zinc falls. Zinc ore inventory rises, and refined zinc imports decrease. The Fed's dovish stance strengthens the support for zinc prices, and it is difficult for zinc prices to fall significantly in the short term [13] Lead - **Market**: Shanghai lead index falls, and LME lead falls. Lead ore inventory rises slightly, and downstream demand recovers. In the short term, lead prices are supported, but there is a risk of decline in the medium term [14][16] Nickel - **Market**: Shanghai nickel price rises slightly. Nickel ore supply is loose, and stainless steel demand is weak. Although the macro environment is positive, the supply - demand situation restricts nickel price increases. Nickel prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [17] Tin - **Market**: Shanghai tin price rises slightly. Myanmar's tin production recovery is slow, and domestic tin smelting enterprises' operating rates are low. Electronic and photovoltaic demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The spot index is flat, and the futures price falls. Lithium mica supply decreases, and the price has bottom support. The market awaits new drivers and needs to pay attention to overseas supply and industry news [19] Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index falls. Domestic and overseas ore supply disturbances support prices. The Fed's dovish stance drives the non - ferrous sector. The short - term decline space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [20] Stainless Steel - **Market**: The stainless steel futures price rises slightly. Social inventory increases, and short - term demand is weak. As the peak season approaches, demand is expected to improve [21] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The AD2511 contract rises. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and inventory increases. The cost is supportive, and market activity increases. However, the large futures - spot price difference may cause delivery pressure [22][23] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fall. The overall commodity market cools down. Steel production is high, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. If demand does not improve, prices may continue to fall [25][26] Iron Ore - **Market**: The iron ore futures price falls slightly. Overseas iron ore shipments are stable, and port inventory rises slightly. Steel mill profitability declines, and iron water production growth is limited. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [27][28] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price is stable, and inventory increases slightly. Although the fundamentals are under pressure, the price adjustment space is limited. In the short term, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and in the long term, it depends on policy and demand [29] - **Soda Ash**: The spot price is stable, and inventory decreases. The downstream glass industry's operating rate changes. Soda ash prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may rise gradually in the long term, but the upside is limited [30] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fall. The "anti -内卷" sentiment fades, and the market is affected by emotions. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and hedging funds can seize opportunities. Manganese silicon supply pressure remains, and ferrosilicon supply also rises [31][33][34] Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The industrial silicon futures price rises slightly. The industry has over - capacity, high inventory, and weak demand. The price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to industry policies [35][36] Polysilicon - **Market**: The polysilicon futures price falls. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. Production increases, and inventory transfers to the futures market. The price may adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory pressure [37] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU are volatile. Bulls expect price increases due to seasonality and demand, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro expectations and weak demand. The medium - term view is bullish, and the short - term view is to be neutral - bullish [39][43] Crude Oil - **Market**: WTI and Brent crude oil futures rise, while INE crude oil futures fall. U.S. EIA data shows inventory changes. Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and the macro situation is bearish, the current oil price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [44] Methanol - **Market**: The methanol futures price falls. Coal prices rise, domestic and overseas supply increases, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to positive spread opportunities in the future [45] Urea - **Market**: The urea futures price is stable. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Exports are the main demand variable. The price is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to go long on dips [46] Styrene - **Market**: The styrene spot and futures prices fall. The BZN spread is low and has room for upward repair. Supply increases, and inventory accumulates. Demand is rising at the end of the off - season. The price may rebound when inventory decreases [47] PVC - **Market**: The PVC futures price falls. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The cost support is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [49] Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: The ethylene glycol futures price falls. Supply increases, and demand recovers from the off - season. The port inventory may accumulate in the medium term, and the valuation may decline [50] PTA - **Market**: The PTA futures price falls. Supply decreases due to unexpected maintenance, and demand improves. The processing fee is expected to repair, and it is recommended to go long on dips following PX [51] Para - Xylene - **Market**: The PX futures price falls. PX load is high, and downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance. PX inventory is expected to be low, and the valuation has support. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [52] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: The PE futures price falls. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance. Inventory is high but decreasing, and demand may improve in the peak season. The price may rise in the long term [53] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: The PP futures price falls. Supply increases, and demand is weak. Inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [55] Agricultural Products Live Pig - **Market**: Pig prices mostly fall. The short - term logic is to relieve pressure through weight reduction. Policy support may suppress bearish sentiment, and the far - month contract has a reverse spread strategy [57] Egg - **Market**: Egg prices mostly rise. Supply is stable, and demand is slow. The supply - demand negative cycle remains. It is recommended to reduce short positions or short on rebounds [58] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: U.S. soybeans fall slightly, and domestic soybean meal is weak. U.S. soybean production may decrease, but global supply is abundant. The domestic soybean meal market has strong supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range [59][61] Edible Oils - **Market**: Domestic edible oils are volatile and weak. Malaysian palm oil exports increase, and production shows different trends. Domestic soybean oil inventory may increase, and rapeseed oil inventory may decrease. The price is expected to be strong and volatile [62][63] Sugar - **Market**: Zhengzhou sugar futures price falls. Brazil's sugar production may be affected by weather, and the international and domestic sugar supply is expected to increase. The price is likely to continue to fall [64][65] Cotton - **Market**: Zhengzhou cotton futures price is volatile. The downstream market may improve in the peak season, and domestic inventory is low. The price may rise in the short term [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In Q2 2025, the overall supply of overseas lithium mines was stable with regional differentiation. The shipment volume of projects in Western Australia and North America increased quarter-on-quarter, while some projects in South America and Africa controlled market supply due to low prices. With the rebound of lithium prices in Q3, it is expected that overseas mines will release supply. The resource output of the three major production areas of Western Australia, South America, and Africa in the second half of the year is expected to be significantly higher than that in the first half, which can alleviate the gap caused by the shutdown of large domestic mines. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the operational continuity of regions such as Jiangxi, Qinghai, and Mali in the resource end [1]. Summary by Directory Australia - In Q2 2025, the shipment volume of Australian mines was about 1.007 million tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.9%. Greenbushes and Pilbara contributed the main increments. In the 2025 fiscal year (July 2024 - June 2025), the lithium concentrate output of the five major Australian mines was about 3.551 million tons, and it is expected to increase by about 10% in the 2026 fiscal year. The supply of Holland in the 2025 calendar year will double compared with the expectation. It is estimated that the average quarterly shipment volume of Australian mines in the next four quarters will be about 1 - 1.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 10% [3]. - Greenbushes produced 340,000 tons of lithium concentrate in Q2 2025, basically flat quarter-on-quarter and a 2% year-on-year increase. The sales volume was 412,000 tons, a 13% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 22% year-on-year decrease. The average sales price was 725 US dollars/ton (FOB), a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8%. The cash production cost increased by 7% quarter-on-quarter to 366 Australian dollars/ton, a year-on-year increase of 8%. In the 2025 fiscal year, the production volume was 1.479 million tons, and the unit cash production cost was 325 Australian dollars/ton, meeting the production and cost guidelines. It is expected that CGP3 will produce the first batch of ore around the end of 2025. The production and cash cost guidelines for the 2026 fiscal year are 1.5 - 1.65 million tons and 310 - 360 Australian dollars/ton respectively [4]. - In Q2 2025, the lithium concentrate output of Pilbara was 221,300 tons (SC5.1), a 77% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 2% year-on-year decrease. The sales volume was 216,000 tons (SC5.1), a 72% quarter-on-quarter increase and an 8% year-on-year decrease. The average sales price of spodumene concentrate was 703 US dollars/ton (China CIF, SC6; SC5.1 was 599 US dollars/ton), a 17% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The unit operating cost (including freight and royalties) was 462 US dollars/ton, a 7% quarter-on-quarter decrease and a 4% year-on-year decrease. It is expected that the lithium concentrate output in the 2026 fiscal year will be 820,000 - 870,000 tons, and the unit operating cost (FOB) will drop to 560 - 600 Australian dollars/ton [6]. - In Q2 2025, the total lithium concentrate output of Mt Marion was 124,000 tons, a 11% quarter-on-quarter and 30% year-on-year decrease. The shipment volume was 134,000 tons (SC4.6), a 3% quarter-on-quarter decrease and a 29% year-on-year decrease. The average sales price of lithium concentrate (SC6) was 607 US dollars/ton, a 28% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The cost was 717 Australian dollars/ton (SC6, FOB). In June 2025, its two shareholders will each inject up to 150 million Australian dollars into the project [7][8]. - Wodgina produced 166,000 tons of lithium concentrate in Q2 2025, a 32% increase both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. The sales volume was 136,000 tons, a 15% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 10% year-on-year increase. The average Li2O grade was 5.4%. The average realized price of lithium concentrate (SC6) was 674 US dollars/ton, a 20% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The cost was 641 Australian dollars/ton (SC6, FOB), a 17% quarter-on-quarter decrease. In the 2025 fiscal year, the cost was 849 Australian dollars/ton, meeting the cost guideline, and the production volume was 502,000 tons, higher than the guideline [9]. - In Q2 2025, the lithium concentrate output of Kathleen Valley was 85,892 tons, a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase. The sales volume was 97,330 tons, a 4% quarter-on-quarter increase. The average sales price was 740 US dollars/ton (SC6, SC5.2 was 633 US dollars/ton), a 9% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The unit operating cost was 576 US dollars/ton (FOB), a 31% quarter-on-quarter increase. The full sustaining cost (AISC) was 786 US dollars/ton (SC6.0, FOB), a 35% quarter-on-quarter increase. The 2026 fiscal year production guideline is 365,000 - 450,000 tons, a 24 - 53% year-on-year increase [10]. - Mt Holland's lithium salt sales volume in Q2 2025 was about 1,300 tons. The annual sales volume guideline for 2025 is expected to reach 20,000 tons LCE (50% equity), doubling the previous plan. The Quinana refinery in Australia has completed construction and produced the first batch of commercially - compliant products in July. It is expected to reach the nameplate capacity of 50,000 tons of lithium hydroxide by the end of 2026 (SQM accounts for 25,000 tons) [10]. South America - South American projects changed little this quarter. In Q2, companies such as SQM and Sigma controlled the shipment volume due to low lithium prices. It is expected that the sales volume in the second half of the year will have a large increase compared with the first half. The Argentine Chamber of Mining Companies expects that the Argentine lithium carbonate production in 2025 will increase by 75% year-on-year to 130,000 tons. SQM in Chile has a 20,000 - ton increase (+10%) in the Atacama Salt Lake. Brazilian hard - rock projects have cost advantages, and Grota do Cirilo and AMG lithium mines are operating at full capacity [13]. - In Q2 2025, SQM's lithium salt sales volume in Chile was 51,700 tons, a 1.1% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The total sales volume in the first half of the year was 108,100 tons. The average sales price was 9,144 US dollars/ton, a 27% year-on-year decrease. The unit sales cost was 7,038 US dollars/ton, an 18% year-on-year decrease and a 4% quarter-on-quarter increase. The company expects a significant increase in lithium sales in the second half of the year. The sales volume of SQM's Atacama Salt Lake business in Chile is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year in 2025, with an expected sales volume of about 220,000 tons [14][15]. - The Fenix project of Arcadium Lithium had problems with the transportation system in April and energy interruption due to snowfall in May. The total quarterly production of lithium resources was about 15,000 tons LCE (100% equity), a 29% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The production problems have been solved. The Fenix expansion project with a nameplate capacity of 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate is expected to be put into production in 2026 [16]. - The first - phase factory of Rincon lithium project produced the first batch of lithium products in December 2024, and the final system testing and commissioning were completed in Q2 2025. The construction of the 57,000 - ton expansion factory will start in Q3, and the first production is expected to be in 2028, reaching full - load production within three years [17]. - The first - phase 25,000 - ton/year lithium hydroxide factory of Hombre Muerto was completed in October 2024, and the second - phase is planned to be completed in the second half of 2025. The first - phase of Sal de Oro has a design capacity of 25,000 tons/year and started shipping products in September 2024, expected to reach full production in April 2025. The lithium carbonate production in 2024 was about 4,000 tons LCE, and about 16,000 tons LCE in 2025. The second - phase with a design capacity of 25,000 tons/year is planned to start construction in June 2025 and be put into production in 2026 [18]. - In Q2 2025, the total production of Caucharí - Olaroz was about 8,500 tons of lithium carbonate, a 18% quarter-on-quarter increase. The shipment volume was about 8,635 tons, a 21% quarter-on-quarter increase. The unit cash operating cost was 6,098 US dollars/ton, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of about 8%, and the unit total cash cost was 6,366 US dollars/ton, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of about 7%. The unit average realized price was about 7,400 US dollars/ton. The annual production target for 2025 is 30,000 - 35,000 tons. The company is promoting a new 40,000 - ton/year lithium carbonate capacity and evaluating the possibility of producing up to 150,000 tons of lithium carbonate using direct lithium extraction technology [19]. - The production of Centenario - Ratones in Q2 was about 270 tons of lithium carbonate, and the sales volume was 480 tons LCE. Due to technical problems in equipment commissioning in the first half of the year, the production target for 2025 is 4,000 - 7,000 tons, significantly lower than the previous guideline [20]. - The first - phase of Zijin Mining's 3Q lithium salt lake in Argentina is in industrial commissioning and optimization, and it is expected to start producing crude lithium carbonate products in Q3 2025, with an annual production of about 20,000 tons [21]. - In Q2 2025, the lithium concentrate output of Grota do Cirilo was 68,368 tons, a 38% year-on-year increase and flat quarter-on-quarter. The company controlled the shipment volume at low lithium prices. The sales volume was 40,350 tons, a 23% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The single - ton sales cost was 584 US dollars, a 3% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter increase. The cash operating cost (China CIF) was 442 US dollars/ton, a 14% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The unit total sustaining cost (AISC) was 594 US dollars/ton, a 24% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The company expects the 2025 fiscal year production to reach 270,000 tons. The second - phase expansion is expected to increase the capacity by 250,000 tons/year in 2026 [22][23]. Africa - Six projects in Zimbabwe and Mali have completed capacity ramping up, but the shipment volume growth was limited in the first half of the year due to low lithium prices, maintenance, and technological transformation. The import of African lithium concentrate by China in the first seven months decreased by 13.7% year-on-year. The recovery of lithium prices may drive the supply increment in Zimbabwe, while the production and shipment rhythm of Chinese - funded lithium mines in Mali may be affected by local political changes [24]. - In the first half of 2025, Zhongkuang Resources' self - supplied raw materials achieved lithium salt sales of 17,869 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 6.37%. It directly sold 34,834 tons of self - produced spodumene concentrate [25]. - The original ore production scale of Sabi Star in Zimbabwe is 990,000 tons/year, and it can produce about 290,000 tons of lithium concentrate per year. The mine suspended production in Q1 for technological transformation and facility construction and resumed production in April. The supporting power plant was completed and put into operation in June [26]. - The lithium ore processing capacity of Yahua Group's Kamativi lithium mine project in Zimbabwe is 2.3 million tons/year, and the nameplate capacity of lithium concentrate is 350,000 tons/year. It is expected to produce about 280,000 tons of lithium concentrate in 2025 and reach full production in 2026 [27]. - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of 100% equity of Mali Lithium on July 2. The first batch of lithium concentrate was shipped from the mine in May and completed loading in late June, expected to arrive at Chinese ports in early August [28]. - The Bougouni mining area in Mali has a lithium ore mining and processing capacity of 1 million tons, with an expected annual output of more than 125,000 tons of spodumene concentrate. As of mid - August, more than 45,000 tons of lithium concentrate have been produced. The mine team is promoting the acquisition of export licenses from the Malian government [29]. North America - In Q2 2025, North American Lithium (NAL) produced 58,533 tons of lithium concentrate, a 35% quarter-on-quarter increase. The sales volume was 66,980 tons, a 148% quarter-on-quarter increase. The average sales price (FOB) dropped 8% to 1,054 Australian dollars/dry metric ton (682 US dollars/dry ton, a 4% decrease). The unit sales operating cost decreased 10% quarter-on-quarter to 1,232 Australian dollars/ton (FOB), a 5% quarter-on-quarter decrease in US dollars. The 2025 production target is 190,000 - 210,000 tons [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market may experience increased short - term volatility after recent continuous rises, but the general strategy is to go long on dips. In the bond market, there is still room for interest rates to decline, but it may return to a volatile pattern in the short term. For precious metals, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. For most non - ferrous metals, prices are expected to be volatile with a slightly upward trend. In the black building materials sector, steel products face weak demand, while iron ore is expected to be volatile. For energy chemicals, the trends vary by product, and for agricultural products, different products have different outlooks based on supply and demand [3][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - Policy: The State Council released an opinion on implementing the "Artificial Intelligence +" action, aiming for over 70% penetration of new - generation intelligent terminals by 2027 [2]. - Fund Scale: In July, the scale of money funds increased by over 38 billion yuan, stock funds by over 19 billion yuan, and hybrid funds by over 13 billion yuan, while bond funds decreased by over 4.6 billion yuan [2]. - Company Performance: Cambrian achieved an operating income of 2.881 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year - on - year increase of 4347.82%, and a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan, turning a profit year - on - year [2]. - International Data: US durable goods orders in July decreased by 2.8% month - on - month, better than the expected 4% decline [2]. - Trading Logic: The market may be volatile in the short term but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all rose [4]. - News: Trump fired Fed governor Lisa Cook, and Guangdong plans to issue 2.5 billion yuan of offshore RMB local government bonds in Macau [4]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 40.58 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 17.45 billion yuan [5][6]. - Strategy: Interest rates may decline in the long term but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [6]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - Market Performance: Shanghai gold rose 0.21%, Shanghai silver fell 0.30%, COMEX gold rose 0.24%, and COMEX silver rose 0.22% [7]. - Market Outlook: US economic data pressured precious metals prices in the short term, but Trump's action may lead the Fed to turn dovish. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips [7][8]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - Market Performance: LME copper rose 0.38%, and Shanghai copper closed at 79,420 yuan/ton [10]. - Industry Situation: LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic copper supply is expected to be in a slightly surplus situation. Copper prices are expected to be volatile and slightly upward [10]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - Market Performance: LME aluminum rose 0.63%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,880 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry Situation: Domestic aluminum inventory is low, and demand is expected to improve. Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and slightly upward [11]. 3.2.3 Zinc - Market Performance: Shanghai zinc index fell 0.52%, and LME zinc rose [12]. - Industry Situation: Zinc ore inventory is rising, but the dovish Fed statement strengthens the support for zinc prices. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [12][13]. 3.2.4 Lead - Market Performance: Shanghai lead index rose 0.38%, and LME lead rose [14]. - Industry Situation: Lead supply is increasing, and downstream demand is warming up in the short term but faces pressure in the medium term [14]. 3.2.5 Nickel - Market Performance: Shanghai nickel rose 0.05% [15]. - Industry Situation: Nickel supply is in surplus, and stainless steel demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to be volatile [15]. 3.2.6 Tin - Market Performance: Shanghai tin fell 0.05% [16]. - Industry Situation: Tin supply is low, and demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to be volatile [16]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The MMLC index was flat, and the LC2511 contract fell 0.45% [17]. - Industry Situation: Lithium mica supply is shrinking, and the price is expected to be supported. Attention should be paid to overseas supply [17]. 3.2.8 Alumina - Market Performance: The alumina index fell 3.47% [18]. - Industry Situation: Ore supply is disturbed, and the Fed's dovish statement may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - Market Performance: The stainless - steel main contract fell 0.31% [19]. - Industry Situation: Short - term demand is weak, but it is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season [20]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Performance: The AD2511 contract fell 0.32% [21]. - Industry Situation: The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price may rise, but there is delivery pressure [21]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - Market Performance: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fell [23]. - Industry Situation: Steel demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and prices may continue to decline if demand does not improve [24]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore main contract fell 1.33% [26]. - Industry Situation: Overseas shipments are stable, demand is flat, and inventory is rising slightly. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile [27]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Spot prices are stable, inventory is rising slightly, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [28]. - Soda Ash: Spot prices are stable, inventory pressure is decreasing, and prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and gradually rise in the long term [29]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Performance: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell [31]. - Industry Situation: Iron alloy prices are affected by market sentiment. It is recommended for speculative funds to wait and see and for hedging funds to participate [32]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The industrial silicon main contract fell 1.84% [34]. - Industry Situation: Supply is increasing, demand support is limited, and prices are expected to be volatile [35]. 3.3.6 Polysilicon - Market Performance: The polysilicon main contract fell 1.15% [36]. - Industry Situation: It is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern, and prices are expected to be highly volatile [36]. 3.4 Energy Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - Market Performance: NR and RU were in a volatile consolidation [38]. - Industry Situation: There are different views on the rise and fall. It is expected that rubber prices will be volatile and slightly upward [39][42]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - Market Performance: WTI fell 2.21%, Brent fell 2.17%, and INE rose 0.66% [43]. - Industry Situation: The fundamentals are healthy, but seasonal demand may limit the upside. The short - term target price for WTI is $70.4/barrel [43]. 3.4.3 Methanol - Market Performance: The 01 contract fell [44]. - Industry Situation: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. 3.4.4 Urea - Market Performance: The 01 contract fell [45]. - Industry Situation: Supply pressure exists, demand is weak, and it is recommended to go long on dips [45][46]. 3.4.5 Styrene - Market Performance: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened [47]. - Industry Situation: Cost support exists, inventory is rising, and prices may rebound after inventory reduction [47]. 3.4.6 PVC - Market Performance: The 01 contract fell [49]. - Industry Situation: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [49]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: The EG01 contract fell [50]. - Industry Situation: Supply is still in surplus, and there is downward pressure on valuation in the medium term [50][51]. 3.4.8 PTA - Market Performance: The PTA01 contract rose [52]. - Industry Situation: Supply is decreasing, demand is improving, and it is recommended to go long on dips [52]. 3.4.9 Para - Xylene - Market Performance: The PX11 contract rose [53]. - Industry Situation: PX load is high, and there is support for valuation. It is recommended to go long on dips [53]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - Market Performance: Futures prices fell [54]. - Industry Situation: Cost support exists, inventory is decreasing, and prices may rise [54]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - Market Performance: Futures prices fell [56]. - Industry Situation: Supply and demand are weak, and it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [56]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Live Pigs - Market Performance: Pig prices fell [58]. - Industry Situation: Supply is excessive, and the market is in a range - bound pattern [58]. 3.5.2 Eggs - Market Performance: Egg prices were stable or rose [59]. - Industry Situation: The egg market is in a supply - surplus cycle, and it is recommended to reduce short positions or short on rebounds [59]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Performance: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal was relatively weak [60]. - Industry Situation: Supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the cost - range low [60][61]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - Market Performance: Domestic oils and fats were weakly volatile [63]. - Industry Situation: There are multiple factors supporting the price, and palm oil is expected to be volatile and slightly upward [63][64]. 3.5.5 Sugar - Market Performance: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell [65]. - Industry Situation: International and domestic supply is increasing, and prices are likely to continue to decline [65]. 3.5.6 Cotton - Market Performance: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were volatile [66]. - Industry Situation: Fundamentals are expected to improve, and prices may rise in the short term [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Amidst factors such as the decline of the US dollar index and the dovish stance of the Fed Chair increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, the overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is affected. Although the optimistic sentiment in the equity market has faded, the overall prices of non - ferrous metals are expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend. However, different metals have their own supply - demand characteristics, which will also have an impact on their price trends [1][3]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Performance**: LME copper rose 0.38% to $9,846/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract reached 79,420 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased by 975 to 155,000 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 23,000 tons. - **Market Situation**: The supply of copper raw materials remains tight. Although the US copper tariff has led to an increase in copper supply outside the US, the overall supply surplus is expected to be small, and copper prices may fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 78,800 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9,750 - 9,950/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Performance**: LME aluminum rose 0.63% to $2,638/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract reached 20,880 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract's open interest increased by 0.4 to 594,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased to 56,000 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.5 to 464,000 tons. - **Market Situation**: With the Fed's dovish signal and the approaching peak season, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 20,750 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,610 - 2,660/ton [3]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The AD2511 contract fell 0.32% to 20,265 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 0.04 to 32,400 tons. - **Market Situation**: As the downstream moves from the off - season to the peak season, costs are strongly supportive, and market activity is increasing. However, the large difference between futures and spot prices will put pressure on the nearby contracts [5]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai lead index rose 0.38% to 16,924 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 58,200 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 63,200 tons. - **Market Situation**: The supply side shows marginal growth, and the downstream battery enterprise's operating rate has recovered rapidly. In the short term, lead prices are supported, but in the medium term, there is still a risk of decline [7]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.52% to 22,272 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 36,400 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 132,900 tons. - **Market Situation**: The zinc mine inventory is rising, and the refined zinc import is decreasing. Although the medium - term industry surplus situation remains unchanged, the dovish stance of the Fed strengthens the support for zinc prices, and it is difficult for zinc prices to fall significantly in the short term [9][10]. Tin - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 269,760 yuan/ton, down 0.05%. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 120 to 7,152 tons. - **Market Situation**: The supply of tin is low, and the demand is weak in the off - season. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate. The reference range for domestic tin prices is 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin prices is $31,000 - 34,000/ton [11]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,370 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. - **Market Situation**: The macro - environment is positive, but the refined nickel supply surplus situation remains unchanged, and the stainless steel demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract this week is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500/ton [12][13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: The Five - Mineral Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index was 79,332 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. - **Market Situation**: The supply of lithium mica has decreased, and the bottom support during the peak season has increased. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 77,000 - 82,500 yuan/ton [15]. Alumina - **Price Performance**: On August 26, the alumina index fell 3.47% to 3,063 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts on Tuesday were 84,600 tons, an increase of 0.15 from the previous day. - **Market Situation**: After a significant decline in the short - term alumina futures price, the downside space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 3,100 - 3,500 yuan/ton [17]. Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory was 101,925 tons, a decrease of 16,715 from the previous day, and the social inventory increased by 1.19% to 1,091,700 tons. - **Market Situation**: The short - term downstream demand is insufficient, but with the approaching of the peak season, the demand is expected to increase [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions on dips and taking profits, and left - side trading for September's Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - induced supply disruptions [2]. - For methanol, the cost has increased due to rising coal prices, domestic supply is increasing, and overseas imports are expected to rise. The demand is currently weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on positive spread opportunities after the improvement of supply - demand [4]. - Urea faces a situation of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The supply pressure remains, and the domestic demand lacks support. The main demand variable is exports. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [6]. - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate strongly. A neutral - long approach is suggested, with short - term long positions on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Partial liquidation of the strategy of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 is recommended [13]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [15]. - For styrene, the long - term BZN spread is expected to recover. When the inventory de - stocking inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - Polyethylene is expected to have an upward - trending price in the long - run, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21]. - PX is expected to maintain low inventories, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [24]. - PTA's supply - demand pattern has changed from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [25]. - Ethylene glycol has an oversupply situation in the medium - term, and there is downward pressure on its valuation [26]. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.43, or 2.21%, to $63.31; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.49, or 2.17%, to $67.25; INE main crude oil futures rose 3.20 yuan, or 0.66%, to 488.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: In the weekly data of Fujairah Port's oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.09 million barrels to 6.97 million barrels, a 13.47% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.82 million barrels to 1.46 million barrels, a 35.88% decline; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 7.18 million barrels, a 6.30% increase; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.48 million barrels to 15.61 million barrels, an 8.65% decline [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 26, the 01 contract fell 29 yuan/ton to 2395 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 120 [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Coal prices are rising, domestic supply is increasing, overseas imports are expected to rise rapidly. The demand from port MTO plants is temporarily stopped and expected to resume at the end of the month, and traditional demand is weak [4]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on positive spread opportunities after the improvement of supply - demand [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 26, the 01 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained stable, with a basis of - 47 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production is at a high level, and the enterprise profit is at a low level. The domestic demand is weak, and the main demand variable is exports [6]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are oscillating and consolidating [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls believe in factors such as weather in Southeast Asia, seasonal trends, and improved demand expectations in China; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal demand slumps, and less - than - expected supply benefits [10]. - **Industry Situation**: As of August 21, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from last week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from last week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year [11]. - **Inventory**: As of August 18, 2024, China's natural rubber social inventory was 121.7 million tons, up 0.4 million tons or 0.34% from the previous period; as of August 17, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) million tons [12]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate strongly. A neutral - long approach is suggested, with short - term long positions on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Partial liquidation of the strategy of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 is recommended [13]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 48 yuan to 4999 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4760 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 239 (+ 38) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 145 (+ 9) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate of PVC decreased, the downstream operating rate decreased slightly, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased. The enterprise profit is at a high level, and the export expectation is weak [15]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [15]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices of styrene fell, and the basis strengthened [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The macro - sentiment is good, the cost support remains, the BZN spread has room to recover, the supply is increasing, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is rising [17][18]. - **Strategy**: When the inventory de - stocking inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound [18]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene fell, and the spot price rose [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in Q3, the cost support remains, the inventory is being depleted, and the demand for agricultural film raw materials is starting to stockpile [20]. - **Strategy**: The long - term price is expected to oscillate upward [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene fell, and the spot price remained stable [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: A new integrated device has been put into production, the demand - side operating rate is oscillating at a low level, and the inventory pressure is high [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 24 yuan to 6994 yuan, and the PX CFR rose $5 to $864 [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is at a high level, the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, the overall load center is low, but due to new PTA device put - ins, PX is expected to maintain low inventories [23][24]. - **Strategy**: There are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [24]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 8 yuan to 4870 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 20 yuan/ton to 4870 yuan [25]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load decreased, the downstream load increased, and the inventory decreased. The supply - demand pattern has changed from inventory accumulation to de - stocking [25]. - **Strategy**: There are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [25]. MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 19 yuan to 4490 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 11 yuan to 4553 yuan [26]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, the downstream load is increasing, the port inventory is decreasing, but there is an oversupply situation in the medium - term [26]. - **Strategy**: There is downward pressure on its valuation in the medium - term [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined slightly. The demand for finished steel products is clearly weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively improved, the prices may continue to decline. [3] - The supply and demand contradictions of iron ore are not prominent for the moment, and its price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping progress and the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. [6] - The prices of ferrous alloys have dropped rapidly. In the short - term, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities. The fundamental problems of over - supply in the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron industries remain. [7][8][9] - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. Polysilicon continues the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation" and is expected to have high - volatility. [12][13][14] - The price of glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and the price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price of soda ash may gradually rise, but the increase is limited. [16][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3113 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.79%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3367 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.64%) from the previous trading day. [2] - **Market Analysis**: The export volume of steel increased slightly this week but remained in a weak and volatile pattern. The output of rebar decreased significantly this week, demand improved slightly but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to rise, production increased rapidly, and inventory increased for six consecutive weeks. [3] Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 776.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.33% (-10.50), and the position changed to 45.29 million hands. The weighted position was 80.85 million hands. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 41.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.08%. [5] - **Market Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipping was stable. Australian shipping increased, Brazilian shipping decreased, and non - mainstream shipping decreased slightly. The recent arrival volume decreased. The daily average pig iron output was basically flat, the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline, port inventory increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory decreased slightly. [6] Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Price and Position Data**: On August 26, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.61% at 5862 yuan/ton, and the main contract of silicon iron (SF511) closed down 0.42% at 5656 yuan/ton. [7] - **Market Analysis**: The prices of ferrous alloys dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and production continued to rise. There were no obvious fundamental contradictions in silicon iron, and supply also continued to increase. [8][9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8515 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.84% (-160). The weighted contract position changed to 526046 hands. [11] - **Market Analysis**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand of industrial silicon remained. Production continued to rise, and the support from the demand side was limited. It was expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. [12] - **Polysilicon** - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 50985 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.15% (-595). The weighted contract position changed to 320439 hands. [13] - **Market Analysis**: Polysilicon continued the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. Production continued to increase, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly. It was expected to have high - volatility. [14] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price in Shahe was 1138 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price in Central China was 1070 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. As of August 21, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million heavy boxes, up 180,000 heavy boxes (0.28%) from the previous period. [16] - **Market Analysis**: The production of glass remained high, inventory pressure increased slightly, and downstream real - estate demand did not improve significantly. The price adjustment space was limited, and the market expected policy support. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. [16] - **Soda Ash** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of soda ash was 1200 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. As of August 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8881 million tons, down 22,700 tons (1.19%) from last Thursday. [17] - **Market Analysis**: The price of soda ash fluctuated with the coal - chemical sector. The downstream demand was difficult to improve quickly, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and gradually rise in the long - term, but the increase was limited. [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The strong performance of US economic data released last night put short - term pressure on gold and silver prices, but Trump's removal of Fed Governor Cook further weakened the Fed's independence, and it is certain that the Fed will shift to a dovish stance in its medium - term monetary policy [2][3]. - The US economic data such as durable goods orders, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and consumer confidence index were better than expected, causing a short - term decline in gold and silver prices after the durable goods orders data was released [2]. - Trump's removal of Cook may lead to a new dovish - leaning理事 entering the FOMC, driving the Fed to implement further interest rate cuts. Based on the current weak US employment data and moderately rising consumer price index, there is a possibility of a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed this year [3]. - Silver prices are expected to rise more significantly than gold prices under the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy, and the gold - silver ratio will be further downward - corrected. It is recommended to go long on silver at low prices, with the reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract being 770 - 794 yuan/gram and the main Shanghai silver contract being 9135 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Prices - Shanghai gold (Au) rose 0.21% to 781.86 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver (Ag) fell 0.30% to 9326.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.24% to 3441.10 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.22% to 38.69 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.26%, and the US dollar index was 98.24 [2]. - Other price data such as Au(T + D), London gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, SLV silver ETF holdings, etc. are also presented in the report [4]. 3.2 Economic Data - The US July durable goods orders had a month - on - month value of - 2.8%, higher than the expected - 4% and the previous value of - 9.4%. The US August Richmond Fed manufacturing index was - 7, higher than the expected - 11 and the previous value of - 20. The US August Conference Board consumer confidence index was 97.4, higher than the expected 96.2 [2]. 3.3 Policy Impact - Trump's removal of Fed Governor Cook due to suspected financial crimes has a major impact on the Fed's monetary policy independence. If Cook's position is ultimately removed, new dovish - leaning理事 will enter the FOMC, potentially leading to further interest rate cuts [3]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - Based on the historical price movements of precious metals, gold prices benefit from the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, while silver prices are more driven by the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. It is believed that there is a possibility of a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed this year, and silver prices will rise more than gold prices, with the gold - silver ratio further downward - corrected. It is recommended to go long on silver at low prices, with reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts provided [3]. 3.5 Data Charts - The report includes a large number of data charts showing the relationship between precious metal prices, trading volumes, open interests, and other factors, as well as the near - far month structure and internal - external price differences of precious metals [6][11][18][23][24][31][34][41][43][50][55][56][58]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural product market, including soybean/meal, oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs. It assesses the current market situation, important information, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each category [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, US soybeans rose slightly. Domestic soybean meal was relatively weak due to high inventory and sufficient supply expectations. On Monday, the domestic soybean meal spot price dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and the East China basis remained unchanged at 01 - 110. The downstream inventory days increased slightly by 0.16 days to 8.51 days. Last week, domestic soybean crushing was 2.27 million tons, and this week it is expected to be 2.5283 million tons. The domestic soybean inventory decreased slightly last week, while the soybean meal inventory increased slightly, and the overall equivalent soybean meal inventory remained at a high level. The US soybean production area is expected to have less rainfall in the next week, and it has been dry in August overall, with rainfall forecast to recover in early September. The USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost has been weakly stable recently. The domestic soybean meal market has both strong supply and demand, and the提货 volume has been at a high level. It is expected that the spot market may start to reduce inventory in September, which will support the oil mill's profit. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to the profit and supply pressure at the upper end [4]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67%, and the exports from August 1 - 25 are expected to increase by 10.9% - 16.4%. From August 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.88% month - on - month, and it is expected to increase by 0.3% from August 1 - 20. In August, China's imported soybean arrivals and oil mill crushing volume are still high, and the commercial soybean oil inventory at the end of August is expected to increase by 8 - 100,000 tons. Due to China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, the domestic rapeseed imports have decreased recently, and some areas have cancelled orders. It is expected that the rapeseed oil inventory at the end of August will decrease month - on - month. A Brazilian federal judge approved a ban on Monday, temporarily suspending a decision that required grain traders in the world's largest soybean exporter to stop the so - called "Amazon soybean ban" plan [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US biodiesel policy draft is expected to suppress soybean oil exports. The palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia is insufficient. The low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price center of oils and fats. If the demand countries maintain normal imports and the palm oil production remains at a neutral level, the producing areas may maintain stable inventory, and there may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. Before the inventories in the sales areas and producing areas are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback from the demand in the sales areas, the oils and fats are expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The closing price of the January contract was 5,632 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton or 0.98% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,950 - 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,770 - 5,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 6,050 - 6,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. As of the week of August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 70, down from 76 in the previous week. The amount of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 2.9169 million tons, down from 3.3179 million tons in the previous week [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: From an international perspective, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased significantly month - on - month since July, and there is an expected increase in production in the new season in major northern hemisphere producing countries such as India. The possibility of a significant rebound in the raw sugar price in the future is low. Domestically, the import supply will gradually increase in the next two months, and the out - of - quota spot import profit has been at the highest level in the past five years. The Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to fall [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 14,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The spot price of 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 15,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The 2025 cotton import sliding - scale tariff processing trade quota is 200,000 tons. As of August 24, 2025, the good - quality rate of US cotton was 54%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week, but still significantly higher than the same period last year and at a relatively high level in the same period [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: From a macro perspective, the "dovish" statement of the Fed Chairman on Friday is beneficial for the commodity market to rise. Fundamentally, although the current downstream market consumption is still average, considering the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season and the current low domestic cotton inventory, the fundamentals show signs of marginal improvement. The Zhengzhou cotton price may have upward momentum in the short term [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The average price in the main producing areas rose 0.06 yuan to 3.11 yuan/jin. The supply is stabilizing, the downstream digestion speed is normal, most traders have normal confidence in the future market, the overall inventory has slightly decreased, and the downstream picking - up enthusiasm is normal. The egg price may rise in some areas and remain stable in others today [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fundamentally, the negative cycle of oversupply in the egg market has not been broken. On one hand, the number of newly - laid hens is still increasing, and the proportion of small and medium - sized eggs continues to rise. On the other hand, the consumption postponement caused by supply pressure intensifies the cautious mentality. Only low prices or the start of consumption can break the negative cycle. Before the actual reduction of overall production capacity, the egg price should not be overly optimistic. From a capital game perspective, the current high position in the futures market and the high premium of the near - month contract have been partially corrected. Under the background of reduced selling pressure, it is not advisable to short aggressively. In the future, the strategy should be to reduce short positions or short after a rebound [19]. Pigs - **Important Information**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally fell. The average price in Henan dropped 0.15 yuan to 13.56 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.05 yuan to 13.57 yuan/kg. The enthusiasm of farmers for slaughter increased, but there was some reluctance to sell at low prices. The pig price may be stable or fall today [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current logic is to release pressure by reducing the weight under oversupply. The near - month contract is weakly affected by the spot market. On one hand, policies such as state purchases to support the market are increasing, which may continuously suppress the bearish sentiment. On the other hand, it is still uncertain whether the potential pressure on inventory in the third - quarter end after the increase in the fat - to - standard price difference can offset the increasing supply trend. The market should be viewed with a range - bound idea, and for unilateral trading, more attention should be paid to the trading opportunities after extreme sentiment provides trading space. The far - month reverse spread strategy continues [22].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock market shows a bullish upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all rising [2]. - The implied volatility of financial options is gradually rising and fluctuating at a relatively high level compared to the mean [2]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct bullish buyer strategies and call option bull spread combination strategies; for index options, it is suitable to construct bullish seller strategies, call option bull spread combination strategies, and arbitrage strategies between synthetic long option futures and short futures [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial Market Index Overview - Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all showed gains, with the Shenzhen Component Index having the highest increase of 2.26% [3]. - The trading volume of these indices also increased, with the Shenzhen Component Index having an increase of 328.6 billion yuan in trading volume [3]. 3.2 ETF Market Overview - Most ETFs, including Shanghai 50ETF, Shanghai 300ETF, and ChiNext ETF, showed price increases, with the ChiNext ETF having the highest increase of 2.82% [4]. - The trading volume of most ETFs increased, but the trading volume of Shanghai 50ETF decreased by 1.53 billion yuan [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - The volume PCR and position PCR of different option varieties showed different trends, which can be used to judge the strength of the option underlying and the turning point of the market [5][6]. 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - The pressure and support points of different option varieties are obtained from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options, which can help analyze the price trend of the underlying [7]. 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties increased to varying degrees, with the implied volatility of E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF having the largest increase of 11.58 percentage points [8]. 3.6 Strategy and Suggestions - **Financial Stock Sector (Shanghai 50ETF, Shanghai 50)**: The Shanghai 50ETF shows a bullish upward trend. Suggested strategies include constructing call option bull spread combination strategies, bullish seller combination strategies, and spot long covered call strategies [11]. - **Large - Cap Blue - Chip Stock Sector (Shanghai 300ETF, Shenzhen 300ETF, CSI 300)**: These show a short - term bullish upward trend. Suggested strategies include call option bull spread combination strategies, short - volatility combination strategies, and spot long covered call strategies [11]. - **Large - and Medium - Sized Stock Sector (Shenzhen 100ETF)**: It shows a bullish upward trend. Suggested strategies include call option bull spread combination strategies, short - volatility combination strategies, and spot long covered call strategies [12]. - **Small - and Medium - Cap Stock Sector (Shanghai 500ETF, Shenzhen 500ETF, CSI 1000)**: They show a short - term bullish upward trend. Suggested strategies include call option bull spread combination strategies, short - volatility strategies for CSI 1000, and spot long covered call strategies [12][13]. - **ChiNext Sector (ChiNext ETF, Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF, E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF)**: They show a bullish upward trend. Suggested strategies include call option bull spread combination strategies and spot long covered call strategies [13].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an early morning strategy report on energy and chemical options dated August 26, 2025 [2] - The energy and chemical options covered include energy (crude oil, LPG), polyolefins (PP, PVC, plastic, styrene), polyesters (PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle chips), alkali chemicals (caustic soda, soda ash), and others (rubber) [3] - The recommended strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various underlying futures contracts are presented, such as the SC2510 crude oil contract with a latest price of 499, a price increase of 6, and a price change rate of 1.16% [4] Group 3: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume and open interest PCR data for various option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [5] Group 4: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for various option varieties are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, for example, the pressure level of crude oil is 600 and the support level is 415 [6] Group 5: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data for various option varieties are given, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [7] Group 6: Option Strategies and Recommendations for Different Categories Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + will increase supply by 550,000 barrels per day in September, and Russia will cut production. The market shows short - term recovery受阻. Implied volatility is near the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak shock. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination and a long collar strategy [8] - **LPG**: Factory inventory is decreasing slightly but still high, and port inventory is at a high level. The market shows short - term recovery. Implied volatility has dropped to near the average, and the open interest PCR indicates strong short - side power. Recommended strategies are similar to those for crude oil [10] Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Port and enterprise inventories are rising. The market is in a weak trend. Implied volatility is below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak shock. Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination and a long collar strategy [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a weak and wide - range shock. Implied volatility is below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates strong short - side power. Recommended strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy [11] Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: PE and PP inventories have different trends, and the market is in a weak trend. Implied volatility is below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weakening trend. Recommended strategies include a long collar strategy [11] Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Tire production has different trends. The market is in a short - term weak trend. Implied volatility is near the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak trend. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination [12] Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: Social inventory is decreasing, and the market shows a recovery. Implied volatility is above the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak shock. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination [13] Other Options - **Caustic Soda**: Production capacity utilization is decreasing, and the market shows a recovery. Implied volatility is high, and the open interest PCR indicates strong long - side power. Recommended strategies include a long collar strategy [14] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is at a high level, and the market is in a shock. Implied volatility is high, and the open interest PCR indicates strong short - side power. Recommended strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination and a long collar strategy [14] - **Urea**: Inventory is rising, and the market is in a low - level shock. Implied volatility is near the average, and the open interest PCR indicates strong short - side power. Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination and a long collar strategy [15] Group 7: Option Charts - Charts of price trends, trading volumes, open interests, open interest PCR, implied volatility, etc. for various option varieties such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. are provided [17][36][57]