Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For urea, due to the opening of the import window and the expected improvement in production at the end of January, a bearish outlook on the fundamentals is approaching, so it is advisable to take profits at high prices [3]. - For crude oil, considering the Singapore ESG oil product weekly data and the supply situation, a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see in the short term to test OPEC's export price - support intention [5]. - For rubber, a bearish approach is currently adopted. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, a short - term short - selling strategy can be considered, and partial positions can be established for the strategy of buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12][13]. - For PVC, given the current supply - demand situation, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium term before significant production cuts in the industry [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter, considering factors such as the price, inventory, and profit situation [19]. - For polyethylene, a strategy of going long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices is recommended, as the crude oil price may have bottomed out and the inventory is expected to decline [22]. - For polypropylene, the futures price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year when the supply - surplus pattern changes, given the current supply - demand and inventory situation [25]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season, and there are medium - term opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [28]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory reduction. There are medium - term opportunities to go long at low prices [31][32]. - For ethylene glycol, the port inventory - building cycle will continue, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term without further production cuts in China [34]. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton, in Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and remained unchanged in other regions. The overall basis was reported at - 37 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 1 yuan/ton, reaching 1,777 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy**: Take profits at high prices due to the expected bearish fundamentals [3]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Singapore ESG oil product weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.13 million barrels to 15.41 million barrels, a 0.80% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.18 million barrels to 8.05 million barrels, a 2.21% decline; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.34 million barrels to 25.41 million barrels, a 5.02% decline; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.65 million barrels to 48.87 million barrels, a 3.27% decline. INE main crude oil futures rose 14.70 yuan/ton, a 3.52% increase, reaching 432.70 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see in the short term [5]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price showed signs of weakness. The long - position holders of natural rubber RU believed that production in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, might be limited, and there were positive expectations for demand in China. The short - position holders thought that the macro - economic outlook was uncertain, and demand was in the off - season. As of January 8, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.54%, up 0.60 percentage points from the previous week but down 1.60 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 68.00%, down 1.73 percentage points from the previous week and 10.65 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.2 tons, a 2.5% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 81.5 tons, a 3% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 41.7 tons, a 1.3% increase; and the inventory in Qingdao was 54.43 (+2.49) tons [10]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, consider a short - term short - selling strategy, and partially establish positions for the strategy of buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12][13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract decreased by 8 yuan, reaching 4,897 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,620 (-30) yuan/ton, and the basis was - 277 (-22) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 136 (+1) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 79.7%, up 1%; the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 79.7%, up 1.4%; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 79.6%, up 0.3%. The overall downstream operating rate was 44%, up 0.1%. Factory inventory was 32.8 tons (+1.9), and social inventory was 111.4 tons (+3.7) [14]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price also remained unchanged, with the basis narrowing. The spot price of styrene decreased, and the futures price increased, with the basis weakening. The upstream operating rate was 70.92%, up 0.22%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.65 tons to 13.23 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 40.90%, up 0.11%; the operating rate of PS was 58.90%, down 1.50%; the operating rate of EPS was 46.72%, up 3.07%; the operating rate of ABS was 69.80%, down 0.10% [18]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6,674 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6,525 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 149 yuan/ton, weakening by 46 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, up 0.04%. The production enterprise inventory was 39.54 tons, up 2.47 tons, and the trader inventory was 2.93 tons, up 0.17 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 40.8%, down 0.35%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 41 yuan/ton, narrowing by 4 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6,514 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6,340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 174 yuan/ton, weakening by 30 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, down 1.03%. The production enterprise inventory was 46.77 tons, down 2.3 tons; the trader inventory was 20.47 tons, up 2.75 tons; the port inventory was 7.11 tons, up 0.48 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.76%, down 0.48%. The LL - PP spread was 160 yuan/ton, widening by 16 yuan/ton [24]. - **Strategy**: The futures price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year when the supply - surplus pattern changes [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 70 yuan, reaching 7,238 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 6 dollars, and the basis was - 28 yuan (-29). The 3 - 5 spread was - 30 yuan (+12). The operating rate in China was 90.9%, up 0.3%; the Asian operating rate was 81.2%, up 0.3%. A 820,000 - ton overseas device in Kuwait was under maintenance, and the load of FCFC in Taiwan, China increased. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, up 0.1%. In December, South Korea exported 433,000 tons of PX to China, an increase of 42,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 4.02 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons month - on - month. The PXN was 345 dollars (-22), the South Korean PX - MX was 142 dollars (-5), and the naphtha crack spread was 81 dollars (-9) [27]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season, and there are medium - term opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 22 yuan, reaching 5,108 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 35 yuan, reaching 5,035 yuan. The basis was - 55 yuan (-7). The 5 - 9 spread was 64 yuan (+4). The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, up 0.1%. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, unchanged. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 4 was 2.03 million tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 62 yuan to 305 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market decreased by 24 yuan to 360 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory reduction. There are medium - term opportunities to go long at low prices [31][32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract increased by 20 yuan, reaching 3,866 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 20 yuan, reaching 3,697 yuan. The basis was - 150 yuan (-7). The 5 - 9 spread was - 94 yuan (-3). The ethylene glycol operating rate was 73.9%, up 0.2%; the operating rate of synthetic gas production was 78.6%, up 2.8%; the operating rate of ethylene production was 71.3%, down 1.2%. The import arrival forecast was 178,000 tons, and the departure from East China ports on January 8 was 11,000 tons. The port inventory was 725,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 810 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 894 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 283 yuan [33]. - **Strategy**: The port inventory - building cycle will continue, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term without further production cuts in China [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series commodities are in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, sensitive to news changes. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and in the short - term, the macro level is in a policy vacuum period. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their marginal impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - For iron ore, the supply is entering the off - season, and after the resumption of iron - making, the supply - demand is expected to improve marginally. The price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of steel mill restocking and iron - making production [6]. - For silicon iron and manganese silicon, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction for silicon iron [10][11]. - For coking coal and coke, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The static supply - demand structure is balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short - term [16][17]. - For industrial silicon, it is under inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure, with attention to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [20]. - For polysilicon, the price is expected to consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. - For glass, the price is boosted by production line cold - repairs and cost increases, but limited by high inventory and weak terminal orders. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. - For soda ash, the supply pressure persists, demand is weak, and the overall weak pattern remains unchanged [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3144 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (- 0.75%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 55,633 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.7149 million lots, a decrease of 66,939 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3294 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (- 0.69%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 112,237 tons, an increase of 3536 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.4171 million lots, a decrease of 23,805 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory decreased slightly. Rebar production increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory accumulated slightly. The black - series is in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, sensitive to news, and attention should be paid to hot - rolled coil de - stocking and "dual - carbon" policies [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 814.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.18% (+ 1.50). The position changed by + 3210 lots to 639,900 lots. The weighted position was 963,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 826 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 63.83 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.27% [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines ended, and the overseas shipping volume decreased. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil both declined, and the shipping volume from non - mainstream countries also decreased. The near - end arrival volume increased. Demand: The average daily pig iron output continued to rise, some blast furnaces resumed production, and the utilization rate of previously resumed blast furnaces recovered. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly. Inventory: Port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventory increased but was still at a low level, with some restocking demand [6]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Market Quotes** - On January 9, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed up 0.20% at 5904 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5740 yuan/ton, with a basis of 26 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF603) closed down 0.64% at 5632 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 168 yuan/ton [8]. - Last week, the manganese silicon price fluctuated sharply, and the silicon iron price also fluctuated greatly, and both finally declined [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still loose, and that of silicon iron is basically balanced with marginal improvement. The future market is affected by the overall market sentiment, cost push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction for silicon iron [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Quotes** - On January 9, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed up 0.46% at 1195.5 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 0.96% at 1748.0 yuan/ton. Different spot prices and their basis with the main contracts are provided [13]. - Last week, the coking coal price rose significantly, and the coke price also rose [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The rise of coking coal last week was driven by the positive commodity market atmosphere and the news of production capacity reduction. The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The static supply - demand structure is balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short - term [16][17]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes** - On Friday, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8715 yuan/ton, up 2.11% (+ 180). The weighted contract position decreased by 13,806 lots to 379,975 lots. The spot prices of different grades remained unchanged, with corresponding basis [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The production in December was stable, the number of open furnaces in the southwest was at a low level, and the supply improvement was limited. The polysilicon production plan in January continued to decline, and if the production cut of a leading enterprise is implemented, it will impact the demand for industrial silicon. The demand from organic silicon is relatively stable. The price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [20]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - On Friday, the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 51,300 yuan/ton, down 4.31% (- 2310). The weighted contract position decreased by 7303 lots to 97,286 lots. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon decreased, with a basis of 3700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The anti - monopoly meeting minutes and market adjustment affected the price. The spot price increased before the Spring Festival, but the downstream is waiting and watching. If the production cut of a leading enterprise is implemented, the supply pressure will be relieved. The price is expected to consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - Glass: On Friday, the main contract of glass closed at 1144 yuan/ton, down 1.63% (- 19). The inventory of float glass enterprises decreased by 2.37%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions [24]. - Soda Ash: On Friday, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1228 yuan/ton, down 0.89% (- 11). The inventory of soda ash enterprises increased by 2.37%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Glass: The daily melting volume decreased, and the cost increased, boosting the price. However, the terminal orders are weak, and the high inventory restricts the price increase. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. - Soda Ash: The supply is stable, the demand from downstream glass industries decreased, the inventory continued to accumulate, and the market is still weak [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. Although there are short - term negative factors for silver, the large holdings of silver ETFs will keep the available inventory of London silver at a relatively low level. The expected increase in silver imports in India in the first quarter will support the spot demand for silver, so the upward driving force for the silver price still exists. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and conduct bargain - hunting long positions after the short - term negative factors end. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 970 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16870 - 21000 yuan/kilogram [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On January 12, 2026, Shanghai gold rose 0.80% to 1008.54 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 6.19% to 19438.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4540.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 81.08 dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.18%, and the US dollar index was 99.23 [2] - From January 2 to December 31, 2025, the price of the main COMEX silver contract increased by 142.17%. The total inventory of COMEX silver increased from 9918.8 tons on January 2, 2025, to a high of 16500 tons in early October. As of January 9, 2026, the silver one - month implied lease rate dropped from 10.24% at the beginning of the year to 3.76%, and the total inventory of COMEX silver decreased from 13989.5 tons at the beginning of the year to 13677.5 tons [2] 3.2 Strategy View - Mid - term factors support the upward trend of silver prices. As of January 9, 2026, the large holdings of silver ETFs (29295 tons) will keep the available inventory of London silver at a relatively low level. The new silver mortgage regulations in India will take effect in April, and it is expected that silver imports in the first quarter will increase significantly, which will support the spot demand for silver. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and conduct bargain - hunting long positions after the short - term negative factors end. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 970 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16870 - 21000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3.3 Key Data Summary - **Gold**: For COMEX gold on January 9, 2026, the closing price of the active contract was 4518.40 dollars/ounce, up 0.68%; the trading volume was 198000 lots, up 3.20%; the position was 488100 lots, up 1.30%; the inventory was 1129 tons, down 0.21%. For LBMA gold, the closing price was 4493.85 dollars/ounce, up 1.46%. For SHFE gold, the closing price of the active contract was 1006.48 yuan/gram, up 0.86%; the trading volume was 266400 lots, down 15.93%; the position was 318600 lots, up 1.58%; the inventory was 97.65 tons, unchanged. The settled funds increased by 2.45% to 51.307 billion yuan [5] - **Silver**: For COMEX silver on January 9, 2026, the closing price of the active contract was 79.79 dollars/ounce, up 4.04%; the position was 153200 lots, down 2.64%; the inventory was 13677 tons, down 0.62%. For LBMA silver, the closing price was 78.14 dollars/ounce, up 3.90%. For SHFE silver, the closing price of the active contract was 18731.00 yuan/kilogram, up 1.52%; the trading volume was 228500 lots, down 26.62%; the position was 677900 lots, up 0.76%; the inventory was 620.26 tons, down 2.73%. The settled funds increased by 2.30% to 34.284 billion yuan [5] 3.4 Price and Inventory Charts - Multiple charts show the relationship between gold and silver prices and various factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volume, and position over time, as well as the near - far month structure and internal - external price differences, providing a comprehensive analysis of the market trends of gold and silver [7][10][20][26][39][46] 3.5 Internal - External Price Difference Statistics - On January 9, 2026, the SHFE - COMEX price difference for gold was - 100.98 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was - 35.30 dollars/ounce. The SHFE - COMEX price difference for silver was 4.54 dollars/ounce [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock indices, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has risen significantly, and market trading volume has rapidly increased. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea is to buy on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. However, the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The bond market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [7]. - For precious metals, although there are short - term negative factors for silver prices, the upward driving force remains. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after the short - term negative factors end [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are affected by macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and rise in the short - term; aluminum prices are expected to remain strong; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [12][14][16]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are facing different pressures and are recommended to be observed; double - coke prices are expected to fluctuate in the current range [33][36][37]. - For energy and chemicals, the strategies vary by product. For example, rubber is currently considered bearish; crude oil is recommended to be observed; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [57][60][62]. - For agricultural products, the prices of different products are affected by supply - demand relationships and policy factors. For example, the short - term price of live pigs may support the near - term contract to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to wait for rallies to short; the price of eggs is recommended to short on rallies for near - term contracts [82][84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Indices - **Market Information**: China has applied for 200,000 new satellites, over 190,000 of which are from the newly established Radio Innovation Institute. NVIDIA lists AI4S as one of the three major directions of AI. The export tax - rebate rates for photovoltaic and lithium - battery products will be adjusted. The US president is considering a military strike against Iran [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: Adopt the idea of buying on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Friday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased compared with the previous period. In December 2025, China's CPI increased year - on - year, and PPI decreased year - on - year. The US non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data were released. The US president announced a plan to buy mortgage - backed securities [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Friday, with a net investment of 34 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy**: The bond market may face pressure, but the economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The bond market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 0.80%, and Shanghai silver rose 6.19%. The price of COMEX gold and silver is reported. There are short - term negative factors for silver prices, such as BCOM index adjustment and tariff decisions [8]. - **Strategy**: Although there are short - term negative factors for silver prices, the upward driving force remains. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after the short - term negative factors end [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Driven by the strong performance of the Chinese equity market and weak US non - farm payrolls data, copper prices rebounded. LME copper inventory decreased, and the premium of Cash/3M widened. The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased significantly [11]. - **Strategy**: The policy easing direction is expected to remain unchanged, and the domestic manufacturing prosperity has improved marginally. The copper price is expected to fluctuate and rise in the short - term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices fluctuated strongly. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased significantly. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: The macro - sentiment continues to support the aluminum price, and the aluminum price is expected to remain strong [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose slightly, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, with a large potential for catch - up growth compared to copper and aluminum [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose slightly, and the LME lead price rose. The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased [17]. - **Strategy**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, and there is a possibility of short - term impulse driven by strong macro - sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. The spot premium of various brands was strong, and the price of nickel ore and nickel iron increased [18]. - **Strategy**: The nickel market still faces a large surplus pressure, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fluctuated narrowly. The production of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is gradually recovering, and the smelter's production in Yunnan and Jiangxi is affected by different factors. The SMM tin ingot social inventory decreased significantly [21]. - **Strategy**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot price of carbonate lithium increased, and the price of lithium concentrate imported from Australia also increased [23]. - **Strategy**: Although the spot shortage in the off - season has eased, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The domestic spot price was at a discount, and the overseas price was at a loss. The futures inventory increased, and the price of bauxite decreased [24][25]. - **Strategy**: The price of bauxite is expected to fluctuate downward, and the alumina market is facing multiple difficulties. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel futures price rose, and the spot price also increased. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy**: Affected by factors such as the RKAB plan in Indonesia and the sharp increase in LME nickel inventory, the stainless - steel price is expected to remain high and volatile [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded after falling, and the trading volume and open interest increased. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the three - place inventory of aluminum alloy increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy**: Supported by cost and supply - side factors, the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong in the short - term [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures decreased. The spot price also decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly, while the rebar inventory increased slightly [32]. - **Strategy**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore futures price rose slightly. The spot price was at a premium, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [34]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore is expected to decrease seasonally, and the demand is expected to increase. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level, and attention should be paid to the steel mill's restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [35][36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass futures price decreased, and the spot price was stable. The inventory of float glass decreased. The soda ash futures price decreased, and the spot price also decreased. The inventory of soda ash increased [37][38]. - **Strategy**: The glass price is affected by production line cold - repair and cost factors, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. The soda ash market is under supply pressure, and the demand is weak [37][38]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The coking coal futures price rose, and the spot price was at a premium. The coke futures price fell, and the spot price was at a discount. The coking coal and coke prices showed a strong short - term trend [39][40]. - **Strategy**: The strong performance of coking coal is driven by market sentiment and supply - side expectations. The double - coke price is expected to fluctuate in the current range, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and fundamental changes [41][42]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon futures price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon futures price fell slightly. The spot price was at a premium. The prices of both showed significant fluctuations [43][44]. - **Strategy**: Affected by market sentiment, the prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may continue to fluctuate. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is relatively balanced [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures price rose, and the polysilicon futures price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be weak, and the polysilicon market is affected by factors such as antitrust and export tax - rebate policies [47][50]. - **Strategy**: The industrial silicon price is expected to be under pressure, and the polysilicon price is expected to consolidate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances and policy changes [49][51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices showed signs of weakness. The long and short sides have different views. The tire operating rate fluctuated marginally, and the inventory pressure of full - steel tires increased. The domestic natural rubber social inventory increased [53][54][55]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish strategy. If RU2605 breaks below 16,000, switch to a short - term bearish strategy. It is recommended to partially build a position for buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [57]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures price rose, and the prices of related refined oil futures also rose. The inventory of Singapore's ESG refined oil decreased [58]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the oil price is not recommended to be overly bearish in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and verify the OPEC's export reduction when the oil price falls [60]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot price of methanol decreased, and the main futures price rose. The MTO profit was reported [61]. - **Strategy**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and there is a possibility of buying on dips [62]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot price of urea fluctuated, and the main futures price rose slightly. The overall basis was reported [63]. - **Strategy**: The fundamental of urea is expected to be bearish, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [64]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene fluctuated. The supply - side upstream operating rate increased, and the port inventory decreased. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate increased [65]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [67]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract price decreased, and the spot price also decreased. The cost - side price was stable, and the overall operating rate increased. The demand - side downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy**: The PVC market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [69]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract price rose, and the spot price fell. The supply - side overall operating rate was still high, and the inventory decreased slightly. The import is expected to decrease in January, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [70]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts. Pay attention to the risk of rebound due to the tense situation in Iran [71]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract price rose, and the spot price fell. The supply - side short - term maintenance was high, and the demand - side polyester fiber profit was under pressure. The inventory decreased [72]. - **Strategy**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage after short - term de - stocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium - term [73]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract price rose, and the CFR price also rose. The PX operating rate remained high, and the downstream PTA maintenance was more. The inventory decreased slightly [74]. - **Strategy**: The PX is expected to maintain a small inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil in the medium - term [75]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price rose, and the spot price was stable. The upstream operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory increased. The downstream average operating rate decreased [76]. - **Strategy**: The PE price is expected to be supported by the reduction of supply pressure and the decrease of inventory. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [77]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP futures price rose, and the spot price was stable. The upstream operating rate decreased, and the inventory situation was complex. The downstream average operating rate decreased [78]. - **Strategy**: The PP market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to bottom out in the first quarter of next year [79]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price rose over the weekend, with local stability or slight decline. The downstream acceptance was acceptable [81]. - **Strategy**: The short - term spot price has insufficient downward driving force, and the near - term contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - term, it is recommended to wait for rallies to short. In the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [82]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The domestic egg price rose significantly over the weekend. The supply was sufficient, and the demand increased with the approaching festival [83]. - **Strategy**: The near - term contract is recommended to short on rallies, and attention should be paid to the pressure on the far - term contract due to high valuation [84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The US soybean export data and domestic soybean arrival, inventory, and oil - mill operating rate data were released [85][86]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybeans has a bottom, but the upward space is limited. There are both long and short factors, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [87]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil and fat futures price rose slightly. The domestic three - major oil and fat inventory was at a relatively high level. Indonesia may take measures to affect the palm oil market [88][89]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamental of oils and fats is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil and fat price may be close to the bottom range [90]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The domestic sugar spot price was stable, and the Brazilian sugar export data was released [91][92]. - **Strategy**: The raw sugar price has fallen below the support level. The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's sugar production season. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [93]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fall. The domestic cotton spot price also fell. The Brazilian and US cotton export data and domestic cotton inventory and spinning mill operating rate data were released [94][95]. - **Strategy**: Affected by factors such as the

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes harvesting in February and the bearish impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [2][3][4] - For cotton, due to the expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation rate, the short - term volatility of Zhengzhou cotton prices may increase after reaching a high level. It is recommended to wait for a correction and then go long [6][8][9] - For protein meal, the bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. With multiple factors at play, it's advisable to wait and see in the short term [11][12][13] - For oils and fats, the current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic, and the prices may be approaching the bottom range [15][16][17] - For eggs, the near - term contracts can be shorted on rebounds, while the far - term contracts may face pressure when the valuation is too high [19][20] - For pigs, in the short term, the near - term contracts may remain strongly volatile, and it's advisable to short on rebounds. In the long term, it's advisable to buy on dips [22][23] 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Sugar 3.1.1 Market Information - On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 5,288 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous trading day. The new - sugar quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups were flat, and the mainstream quote of processing sugar mills remained unchanged. The basis of Guangxi's spot price to the main Zhengzhou sugar contract was 32 yuan/ton [2] - The Indian government will review sugar mills' export performance after March 31, 2026, and may re - allocate unused quotas. Brazil exported 2.913 million tons of sugar in December, with exports to China reaching 385,300 tons. As of January 7, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 44, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5823 million tons [3] 3.1.2 Strategy - Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish harvesting in February. When the bearish impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited, so temporarily wait and see [4] 3.2 Cotton 3.2.1 Market Information - On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to decline. The closing price of the May contract was 14,675 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 15,930 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. The basis was 1,255 yuan/ton [6] - Brazil exported 450,000 tons of raw cotton in December, with 146,000 tons to China. As of January 1, the US cotton export sales in the current year were 1.5425 million tons, with 71,700 tons to China. As of January 9, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.7%, and the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.57 million tons [6][8] 3.2.2 Strategy - Due to the expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation rate, the short - term volatility of Zhengzhou cotton prices may increase after reaching a high level. Wait for a correction and then go long [9] 3.3 Protein Meal 3.3.1 Market Information - On Friday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2,786 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.14%, and the May rapeseed meal contract was 2,338 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.85%. The basis of soybean meal was 354 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal was 162 yuan/ton [11] - As of January 1, the US exported 880,000 tons of soybeans in the week, with 470,000 tons to China. As of January 2, the domestic sample soybean arrival was 2.25 million tons, and the port inventory was 8.23 million tons. The sample oil mill operating rate was 50.75%, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.06 million tons. The USDA will release relevant reports on January 12, and the Canadian Prime Minister will visit China from January 13 - 17 [12] 3.3.2 Strategy - The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. With the Canadian Prime Minister's visit and large domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the current fundamental situation is weak. However, the inverted soybean crushing profit provides some support. It's advisable to wait and see in the short term [13] 3.4 Oils and Fats 3.4.1 Market Information - On Friday, the oils and fats futures prices rose slightly. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 7,994 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.63%; the May palm oil contract was 8,682 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 0.81%; and the May rapeseed oil contract was 9,042 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton or 0.96%. The basis of soybean oil was 526 yuan/ton, palm oil was - 2 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil was 758 yuan/ton [15] - Indonesia may increase palm oil export taxes. It consumed 14.2 million liters of palm - based biodiesel last year and plans 15.65 million liters this year, with a target of increasing the blending ratio to 50% in the second half of the year. The MPOB will release the December monthly supply - demand report on Monday. As of January 2, the domestic three - major oils and fats inventory was 2.08 million tons [16] 3.4.2 Strategy - The current fundamental situation is weak due to high production, low exports, and high inventory in palm oil - producing areas and relatively high domestic inventory. However, the long - term outlook is optimistic, and the prices may be approaching the bottom range [17] 3.5 Eggs 3.5.1 Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices rose significantly. The supply is sufficient, with only small eggs in short supply. As the festival approaches, demand has increased, and egg prices may stabilize after rising this week [19] 3.5.2 Strategy - The near - term contracts can be shorted on rebounds due to large supply and expected post - holiday price drops. The far - term contracts may face pressure when the valuation is too high [20] 3.6 Pigs 3.6.1 Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices mostly rose, with some areas stable or slightly falling. Northeast and South China farmers' price - holding and downstream acceptance led to small price increases, while in East China, increased supply may lead to price stability or slight drops today [22] 3.6.2 Strategy - In the short term, the near - term contracts may remain strongly volatile, and it's advisable to short on rebounds due to large supply expected around the Spring Festival. In the long term, it's advisable to buy on dips as the direction of capacity reduction is clear but the pace is uncertain [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report Macro sentiment and the low overseas inventory pattern have jointly supported a significant upward movement in aluminum prices. The Shanghai Aluminum futures rose 4.9% last week, and the LME Aluminum rose 4.1%. Currently, despite the downward trend in the molten aluminum ratio and high aluminum prices leading to potential inventory accumulation in China, the low overseas inventory and strong spot supply - demand situation continue to drive up aluminum prices. Coupled with improved domestic spot trading and a marginal increase in downstream operating rates, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. This week, the reference range for the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum is 23,800 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and for LME Aluminum 3M, it is 2,950 - 3,300 US dollars/ton [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply Side**: As of the end of December 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.598 million tons, with December's production increasing 3.9% month - on - month and 1.9% year - on - year. January's production is expected to increase month - on - month. In December 2025, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.581 million tons, up 3.6% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year. China's molten aluminum ratio dropped 0.8% in December 2025 and is expected to decline further in January [12]. - **Inventory & Spot**: As of Thursday, aluminum ingot inventory reached 718,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons compared to December 29, 2025. Bonded area inventory was 55,000 tons, up 1,000 tons from December 31, 2025. Aluminum rod inventory totaled 184,000 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons compared to December 29, 2025. LME global aluminum inventory was 498,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from last week. The spot basis of East China aluminum ingots strengthened, and the LME market's Cash/3M shifted from contango to backwardation [12]. - **Imports and Exports**: In November 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 146,000 tons, a significant 41.0% decrease month - on - month and 2.8% decrease year - on - year. Exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 570,000 tons in November, a 14.8% year - on - year decrease. Cumulative exports from January to November were 5.589 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease. Recently, the spot import loss of Shanghai Aluminum has widened [12]. - **Demand Side**: According to Aizhai Research, the weighted average operating rate of China's aluminum processing industry rose slightly by 0.3% week - on - week to 52.9%. The operating rates of aluminum plate and strip, aluminum foil, aluminum profiles, and aluminum rod sectors improved slightly. After the lifting of environmental controls in the Central Plains region after the New Year's Day, the operating situation improved. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained flat, and the aluminum rod sector was stable [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Shanghai Aluminum rose 4.9% to 24,385 yuan/ton during the week (as of Friday afternoon's close), and LME Aluminum rose 4.1% to 3,149 US dollars/ton. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts of Shanghai Aluminum narrowed compared to last week [24][27]. - **Spot Basis**: The discounts in East China, South China, and the Central Plains regions narrowed significantly compared to last week. The LME Aluminum Cash/3M shifted from contango to backwardation [33][40]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit**: The primary aluminum smelting profit increased significantly compared to last week and is at a historical high [49]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: Aluminum ingot inventory reached 718,000 tons on Thursday, an increase of 80,000 tons compared to December 29, 2025. Bonded area inventory was 55,000 tons, up 1,000 tons from December 31, 2025. Aluminum rod inventory totaled 184,000 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons compared to December 29, 2025. LME global aluminum inventory was 498,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from last week and at a low level for the same period in previous years [52][56][61]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: The average domestic bauxite price decreased by 8 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the price of imported Guinea monohydrate bauxite decreased by 2 US dollars/ton [72]. - **Alumina Price**: The domestic alumina price decreased by 5 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the import price remained unchanged [76]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price decreased by 100 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the thermal coal price increased by 17 yuan/ton [80]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Alumina**: In December 2025, alumina monthly production was 8.003 million tons, an increase of 162,000 tons from November and 8.7% year - on - year. The annual production in 2025 was 90.647 million tons, a 10.1% year - on - year increase. Production in January 2026 is expected to remain high [86]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of December 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.608 million tons. December's production increased 3.9% month - on - month and 1.9% year - on - year. The operating capacity in January is expected to be stable. In December 2025, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.581 million tons, a 3.6% month - on - month increase and 2.2% year - on - year increase, with the annual production increasing about 2.8% year - on - year [89]. - **Molten Aluminum Ratio**: This week, the aluminum rod processing fee turned negative, and the processing fee in Foshan continued to decline. In December 2025, China's molten aluminum ratio decreased by 0.8% month - on - month. The molten aluminum ratio decreased slightly this week and is expected to decline further in January 2026 [92]. - **Provincial - Level Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In December 2025, electrolytic aluminum production in each province increased compared to November [97]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Downstream Operating Rate**: In November 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.931 million tons, a 0.1% year - on - year increase. Cumulative output from January to November was 61.511 million tons, a 0.6% year - on - year decrease. As of January 5, 2026, the daily aluminum ingot出库量 was 91,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease. The operating rates of different downstream sectors showed different trends in 2025 [101]. - **Terminal Demand**: According to the production schedule reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, the production schedule for household air conditioners in January 2026 is 18.51 million units, an 11% increase compared to the actual production in the same period last year, reversing the previous decline. The production schedule for refrigerators is 7.92 million units, a 3.6% increase compared to the actual production in the same period last year. The production schedule for washing machines is 8.1 million units, a slight 1.8% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year. Real estate data in November 2025 remained weak, automobile production and sales were fair, and the production schedule for photovoltaic modules in January 2026 is expected to decline [117]. 3.7 Imports and Exports - **Primary Aluminum Imports**: In November 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 146,000 tons, a significant 41.0% decrease month - on - month and 2.8% decrease year - on - year. Cumulative imports from January to November were 2.35 million tons, a 19.1% year - on - year increase. The spot import loss of aluminum ingots widened this week [122]. - **Aluminum Product Exports**: In November 2025, exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 570,000 tons, a 14.8% year - on - year decrease. Cumulative exports from January to November were 5.589 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease [129]. - **Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In November 2025, recycled aluminum imports were 163,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared to the previous month. Cumulative imports from January to November were 1.822 million tons, a 12.2% year - on - year increase [129]. - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In November 2025, China's bauxite imports were 15.109 million tons, with imported ore accounting for 73.3%. Cumulative bauxite imports from January to November were 185.959 million tons, a 29.3% year - on - year increase. In November 2025, China's alumina exports were 168,000 tons, a 12.2% year - on - year decrease. Cumulative alumina exports from January to November were 2.343 million tons, a 46.7% year - on - year increase [132].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The December PMI data shows that both supply and demand ends have rebounded. With external demand and policy support, demand has warmed up. However, the sustainability of economic recovery momentum remains to be observed, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The bond market may face certain pressure due to the improved market expectations for the economy, but in the long - term, it is still advisable to adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest rate cut expectations in the first quarter [10][13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Situation**: In December, the PMI data indicated that both the supply and demand sides of the manufacturing industry had recovered, and it returned to the expansion range. The export data in November was stronger than expected, with a decline in exports to the US and resilient growth in non - US regions. The central government emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, and there were still expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. In the US, the liquidity situation improved, and the market postponed the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut to mid - year [10]. - **Key Economic Data**: In December 2025, China's CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI fell 1.9% year - on - year. In the US, the non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%. The US president announced a plan to purchase $200 billion in mortgage - backed securities. On January 8, the central bank conducted a 90 - day RMB 1.1 trillion outright reverse repurchase operation for equal - amount rollover. As of the end of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.3579 trillion, an increase of $11.5 billion from the end of November. The Ministry of Commerce prohibited the export of dual - use items to Japanese military users and for military purposes. The National Development and Reform Commission planned to allocate over RMB 100 billion in funds for Yangtze River protection projects [10][11][12]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted RMB 138.7 billion in reverse repurchase operations this week, with RMB 1.7937 trillion in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of RMB 1.655 trillion. The DR007 rate closed at 1.47% [13]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.88%, up 3.03 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year yield was 2.31%, up 3.50 BP week - on - week. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.18%, down 1.00 BP week - on - week [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips for a 6 - month period, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 3:1, driven by the combination of loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [15]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Contract Performance**: The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF, T and TL contracts [18][23][24][27]. 3. Major Economic Data - **Domestic Economy** - **GDP and PMI**: In the third quarter of 2025, China's GDP actually grew by 4.8% year - on - year. In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous value, and the service industry PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points [40]. - **PMI Sub - items**: In December, the manufacturing PMI sub - items showed a moderate improvement in both supply and demand. The production index increased by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7%, and new orders increased by 1.6 points to 50.8 [46]. - **Price Index**: In December, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year. From a month - on - month perspective, CPI, core CPI, and PPI all increased by 0.2% [49]. - **Export Data**: In November 2025, China's exports were stronger than expected, with a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. Exports to the US decreased by 28.5% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate of 8.17% [52]. - **Industrial and Consumption Data**: In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 4.8%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 1.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value [55]. - **Investment and Real Estate Data**: From January to November, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 2.6%, and the real estate investment growth rate was - 15.9%. In November, the month - on - month decline in second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was 0.7%, and the year - on - year decline was 5.7%. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the completion end data in November was 18.06%, and the new home sales data in 30 large - scale cities had weakened recently [58][64]. - **Foreign Economy** - **US Economy**: In the third quarter, the US GDP grew by 2.33% year - on - year and 4.30% quarter - on - quarter. In November, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year. In December, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%. The ISM manufacturing PMI in December was 47.9, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4 [67][70][73]. - **European Economy**: In the third quarter, the EU GDP grew by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. In December, the eurozone CPI increased by 2% year - on - year, the manufacturing PMI was 48.8, and the service industry PMI was 52.4 [73][76]. 4. Liquidity - **Money Supply and Social Financing**: In November, the M1 growth rate was 4.9%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.0%. The social financing increment was 2.5 trillion yuan, with an increase of 160 billion yuan year - on - year. The growth rate of government bonds in the social financing sub - items slowed down, and the financing of the real - economy sector was weak. The social financing growth rate of the household and enterprise sectors was 6.0%, and the government bond growth rate was 18.80% [81][84]. - **Central Bank Operations**: In December, the MLF balance was 6.25 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 138.7 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1.7937 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.655 trillion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.47% [87]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates**: The report provides the latest rates, daily, weekly, and monthly changes of various types of interest rates, including repurchase rates, Chinese government bond yields, and US Treasury yields [90]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents the exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB and the US dollar index [100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of industrial silicon is fluctuating and adjusting. In the short - term, market sentiment is volatile, and the price is expected to be under pressure. The demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon may be weak, and the organic silicon demand is relatively stable in the short - term. The polysilicon market is affected by legal risk concerns and market sentiment, with futures prices dropping and spot - price fluctuations. The market is waiting for the implementation of policies and the actual situation of transactions [16][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: The weekly production of polysilicon decreased slightly to 2.54 tons. The DMC production was 44,000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous week. From January to November, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 17.456 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.895 million tons or 19.88%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 651,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,400 tons or 1.95% [14]. - **Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 5.123 million tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous week. Factory inventory decreased by 1,000 tons, market inventory increased by 1,000 tons, and registered warrant inventory increased by 3,300 tons [14]. - **Price**: The spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from before the holiday. The spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan/ton from before the holiday. The SMM - statistical average price of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material was 55 yuan/kg, an increase of 2 yuan/kg from before the holiday. The average price of N - type dense material was 54.25 yuan/kg, an increase of 2.75 yuan/kg. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 51,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,620 yuan/ton from before the holiday [15][23][26]. - **Cost**: The average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,487.50 yuan/ton, 9,720.00 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,775.00 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 8,966.67 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The production cost of polysilicon was 42,795.37 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 16,415.16 yuan/ton [15][17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: As of January 9, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from before the holiday. The spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan/ton from before the holiday [23]. - **Polysilicon**: As of January 9, 2026, the SMM - statistical average price of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material was 55 yuan/kg, an increase of 2 yuan/kg from before the holiday. The average price of N - type dense material was 54.25 yuan/kg, an increase of 2.75 yuan/kg. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 51,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,620 yuan/ton from before the holiday [26]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - **Total Output**: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 80,300 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous week. In December 2025, the output of industrial silicon was 355,900 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from the previous month. The cumulative output from January to December decreased by 652,300 tons or 13.86% year - on - year [31]. - **Output in Main Production Areas**: The electricity price and silica price in main production areas remained unchanged week - on - week. The average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,487.50 yuan/ton, 9,720.00 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,775.00 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 8,966.67 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [43][46]. - **Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 5.123 million tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous week. Factory inventory decreased by 1,000 tons, market inventory increased by 1,000 tons, and registered warrant inventory increased by 3,300 tons [49]. 3.4 Polysilicon - **Output**: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of polysilicon was 25,400 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week. In December, the output was 115,500 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous month. The cumulative output from January to December was 1.3052 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 254,600 tons [54]. - **Operating Rate and Scheduled Production**: The operating rate of polysilicon in December was 42.23%, a decrease of 1.95 percentage points from the previous month. The expected output in January was 107,800 tons, continuing to decline [57]. - **Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 311,800 tons, and the SMM - statistical inventory was 302,000 tons [60]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of polysilicon was 42,795.37 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 16,415.16 yuan/ton [63]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The weekly output of silicon wafers was 10.52 GW, remaining stable. In December, the output was 43.9 GW, a decrease of 10.47 GW from the previous month. The cumulative output from January to December was 647.09 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.46%. The inventory was 26.23 GW, a slight increase. The predicted output in January was 45.2 GW, remaining basically unchanged [66][69]. - **Battery Cell**: In December, the output of battery cells was 46.76 GW, a decrease of 8.85 GW from the previous month. The operating rate was 47.11%, a decrease of 8.93 percentage points from the previous month. The cumulative output from January to December was 669.48 GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.95%. The inventory was 8.92 GW, remaining unchanged. The expected output in January was 39.36 GW, a significant decrease [75][78]. - **Module**: In December, the output of modules was 38.7 GW, a decrease of 8.2 GW from the previous month. The operating rate was 37.57%, a decrease of 8.14 percentage points from the previous month. The cumulative output from January to December was 563.2 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The inventory was 30 GW, a slight decrease. The expected output in January was 32.47 GW, a decrease from December [83][86]. 3.5 Organic Silicon - **Output**: As of January 9, 2026, the DMC output was 44,000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous week. In December, the output was 204,800 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous month. The cumulative output from January to December was 2.477 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.93% [93]. - **Price and Profit**: The average price of organic silicon was 13,600 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The DMC gross profit was 1,609.38 yuan/ton [96]. - **Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the DMC inventory was 44,600 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous week [99]. 3.6 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of January 9, 2026, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 24,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,420 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 23,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,210 yuan/ton. From January to November, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 17.456 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.895 million tons or 19.88%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 58% [105][108]. - **Exports**: From January to November, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 651,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,400 tons or 1.95% [111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current lead price is near the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, with increased contradictions between macro funds and industrial seat funds. The volatility of Shanghai lead has significantly increased. In the double - wide cycle, the relatively strong macro sentiment may push the lead price to have short - term pulses and deviate from the fundamental oscillation range. It is expected that the lead price will mainly oscillate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector [11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.14% at 17,381 yuan/ton with a total unilateral trading position of 113,800 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME lead 3S rose 9 to 2,040 US dollars/ton with a total position of 177,400 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot was 17,175 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,025 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap spread was 150 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 20,200 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from January 5. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the SHFE was 16,200 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 80 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 15 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 226,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 64,000 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 43.39 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 115.5 US dollars/ton. **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.222, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 341.51 yuan/ton [11] - **Industrial Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 51,000 tons, the factory inventory was 484,000 tons, equivalent to 33.8 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.60%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 83,000 tons, the weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 43,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 18,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 66.59% [11] 3.2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In November 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 109,800 physical tons, with a year - on - year change of 15.7% and a month - on - month change of 11.7%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,278,500 physical tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.3%. The net import of silver concentrates in November was 180,900 physical tons, with a year - on - year change of 26.5% and a month - on - month change of 21.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,686,600 physical tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [15] - **Domestic Production**: In December 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 4.04% and a month - on - month change of - 7.54%. From January to December, the total production of lead concentrates was 1,658,200 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.89%. In November 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 138,300 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 21.11% and a month - on - month change of 16.45%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,441,700 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.85% [17] - **Total Supply**: In November 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 274,900 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 10.09% and a month - on - month change of 3.75%. From January to November, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,973,600 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.62%. In October 2025, overseas lead ore production was 256,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of - 3.39% and a month - on - month change of 6.60%. From January to October, the total overseas lead ore production was 2,407,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 2.35% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The port inventory of lead concentrates at the primary end was 51,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 484,000 tons, equivalent to 33.8 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Start - up Rate and Production**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.60%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead production was 332,700 tons, with a year - on - year change of 1.56% and a month - on - month change of 1.56%. From January to December, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,847,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.32% [26] 3.3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Production**: At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 83,000 tons. The weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 43,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 18,000 tons. In December 2025, China's recycled lead production was 354,500 tons, with a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of - 5.04%. From January to December, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,962,900 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.52% [31][33] - **Imports and Total Supply**: In November 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 23,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of 262.0% and a month - on - month change of 52.6%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 118,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 32.4%. The total domestic lead ingot supply in November was 723,900 tons, with a year - on - year change of 9.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.3%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 7,241,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4% [35] 3.4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 66.59%. In November 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 680,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of 0.9% and a month - on - month change of - 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 7,206,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.6% [38] - **Battery Exports**: In November 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 1,530,070 units, with a year - on - year change of - 22.0% and a month - on - month change of - 5.23%. From January to November, the total net export of lead - containing batteries was 19,680,580 units, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 10.47% [41] - **Inventory Days**: In December 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [43] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of the automobile sector to lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. The use of lead in the automobile sector is mainly for automobile starting batteries. Although new - energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid starting batteries with lithium - iron phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high demand for replacement of starting batteries support the domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base - station sector, the rapid development of communication technology and the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations across the country have led to a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [47][49][52] 3.5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a surplus of 700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a shortage of - 8,400 tons [61] - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In October 2025, the supply - demand difference of overseas refined lead was a surplus of 5,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative supply - demand difference of overseas refined lead was a surplus of 98,400 tons [64] 3.6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 20,200 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from January 5. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the SHFE was 16,200 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 80 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 15 yuan/ton [69] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 226,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 64,000 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 43.39 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 115.5 US dollars/ton [71] - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.222, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 341.51 yuan/ton [74] - **Position Analysis**: The net - long concentration of the top 20 positions in Shanghai lead was relatively high. The LME lead investment fund seats became net - long, and the net - short positions of commercial enterprises increased. From the perspective of positions, the contradiction between speculative funds and industrial funds increased [77]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the price increase of eggs fell short of expectations, the late Spring Festival still led to a continued stockpiling sentiment, driving the near - month contracts on the futures market to be strong. However, the large supply base remained, and the young chicken age made it easy for farmers to delay culling after price increases, thus slowing down the capacity reduction. Considering the expected price drop of the spot market after the Spring Festival, it is recommended to short on rebounds for the near - month contracts. For the far - month contracts, although there is a long - term positive expectation, the realization path is uncertain, and attention should be paid to the pressure after over - valuation [11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic egg prices trended stronger. There were bullish expectations in the pre - festival market. After prices fell to a low level, farmers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and downstream buyers' enthusiasm for purchasing low - priced goods increased, accelerating market circulation. However, after the price increase, the delay in culling old chickens intensified, and the proportion of large eggs significantly rebounded. Next week, egg prices may first decline slightly and then rise slightly. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.2 yuan to 3 yuan per catty, Guantao increased by 0.16 yuan to 2.96 yuan per catty, Huilongguan in the sales area increased by 0.21 yuan to 3.3 yuan per catty, and Dongguan increased by 0.2 yuan to 3.11 yuan per catty [11][20] - **Replenishment and Culling**: Affected by the weak egg prices and continuous farming losses, the market's enthusiasm for replenishment remained sluggish. Due to seasonal factors, the replenishment volume in December increased slightly by 0.1% month - on - month to 79.18 million, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The egg price rebounded weakly, and farming losses expanded. The previous positive sentiment of culling chickens continued, and the price of old chickens hit a multi - year low year - on - year. Recently, due to the pre - festival stockpiling sentiment, the reluctance to sell has intensified, and the average age of chickens remained at 484 days, still far from excessive culling [11][33] - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of December, the inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, lower than the previous value and slightly lower than expected, mainly because the number of newly - started laying hens gradually decreased and the number of culled chickens was higher than expected. However, the absolute quantity was still large, a decrease of 80 million compared with November and a 5% increase compared with 1.28 billion in December last year. Based on the previous replenishment volume, considering normal culling, it is expected that the inventory will gradually peak and decline in the future, further dropping to 1.286 billion by May next year, a decline of 4.3%. The relative supply will gradually decrease, but the absolute supply will still be relatively high [11][38] - **Demand Side**: As the Spring Festival approaches, food companies are stocking up for the festival, and terminal demand is gradually recovering. The overall trend of the demand side is positive, and the demand for eggs may first decrease and then increase [11][46] - **Trading Strategy**: For the near - month contracts, short on rebounds. For the far - month contracts, pay attention to the pressure after over - valuation. Specifically, for the unilateral strategy, short the 03 - 06 contracts on rallies, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended cycle of 1.5 months, and the core driving logic being inventory, spot prices, and seasonality. The recommended rating is two - star, and it was first proposed on January 9th. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [11][13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: The domestic egg price trended stronger last week. After falling to a low level, the market circulation accelerated. But after the price increase, the delay in culling old chickens intensified, and the proportion of large eggs increased. The overall supply was sufficient, with only a shortage of small - sized eggs. Next week, prices may first decline slightly and then rise slightly [20] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis is low, and the futures market still has upward pressure. The monthly spread is mainly oscillating [23] - **Culled Chicken Price**: Although the egg price rebounded from a low level, the farming was still in a loss state. The sentiment of culling chickens remained positive, and both the absolute price of culled chickens and the spread between culled chickens and white chickens hit new lows [26] 3.3 Supply Side - **Egg - Laying Hen Replenishment**: Affected by weak egg prices and continuous losses, the enthusiasm for replenishment remained low. In December, the replenishment volume increased slightly by 0.1% month - on - month to 79.18 million, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [33] - **Culled Chicken Sales**: The egg price rebounded weakly, and losses expanded. The previous positive sentiment of culling chickens continued, and the price of old chickens hit a multi - year low. Recently, due to pre - festival stockpiling, the reluctance to sell has intensified, and the average age of chickens remained at 484 days, still far from excessive culling [36] - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of December, the inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, lower than the previous value and slightly lower than expected. It is expected to peak and decline in the future, dropping to 1.286 billion by May next year, a decline of 4.3%, but the absolute supply will still be relatively high [38][41] 3.4 Demand Side - As the Spring Festival approaches, food companies are stocking up, and terminal demand is gradually recovering. The overall demand trend is positive, and the demand for eggs may first decrease and then increase [46] 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost is lower year - on - year and has declined month - on - month. The profit is at a seasonally low level [51] 3.6 Inventory Side - The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56]