Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong with upward potential in the long - run. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. In the short - term, ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, CF01 closed at 15190 with a 75 - point increase, CF05 at 14650 (+75), and CF09 at 14780 (+95). For cotton yarn futures, CY01 closed at 20250 (unchanged), CY05 at 20495 (+35), and CY09 at 20750 (+245). Trading volumes and open interest showed various changes [2] - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B was at 15987 yuan/ton, down 196; Cot A was at 73.95 cents/pound. Different yarn and fiber prices had different changes, with some remaining stable [2] - **Spreads**: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads also changed. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 540 (unchanged) [2] 2. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - As of January 31, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 78.6% complete, 18 percentage points higher month - on - month and 22.5 percentage points faster year - on - year [4] - As of January 30, 2026, the cumulative inspection of U.S. upland and Pima cotton was 296.18 million tons, accounting for 97.7% of the estimated annual output, 6% slower year - on - year [4] - As of February 1, the national cotton notarized inspection volume was 727.4 million tons, up 13.8% year - on - year, with Xinjiang accounting for 717.8 million tons (up 14.1%) and the inland area 9.6 million tons (down 5.7%) [5] - **Trading Logic**: There are news that Xinjiang's cotton planting area is expected to decrease by 266 million mu in 2026, a 7% reduction. However, several textile projects in Xinjiang are expected to boost cotton consumption, so the cotton fundamentals are strong [6] - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - sided**: ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to trade in a range in the short - term. Consider building long positions on dips [7] - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7] - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - Market trading has weakened, with traders and some fabric mills restocking on a small scale. Yarn mills' quotes are basically stable, while traders' quotes are slightly weak [9] - As the Spring Festival approaches, cotton fabric mills have fewer new orders, lower operating rates, and high finished - product inventories. Cotton fabric prices are expected to be stable in the short - term [9] 3. Options - The 60 - day HV of cotton was 9.2812 yesterday, with slightly increased volatility. The implied volatilities of different options were provided. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased in both open interest and trading volume [10] - Recommend a wait - and - see attitude for options [11] 4. Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton basis for different months, and spreads between cotton yarn and cotton futures contracts [13][16][20][21]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the Spring Festival, the overall demand for egg spot has been good recently, with spot prices rising. The profit situation is favorable, leading to a decrease in market culling enthusiasm. Considering that the egg consumption season will enter a slack period after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the overall reduction has weakened due to the recent good egg prices. It is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices of JD01, JD05, and JD09 remained unchanged from the previous trading day, with closing prices of 3683, 3445, and 3882 respectively. The spreads between different months also remained stable, such as 01 - 05 at 238, 05 - 09 at -437, and 09 - 01 at 199. The ratios of egg to corn and egg to soybean meal for different contracts also showed no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.63 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.86 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/jin. The national mainstream egg prices continued to decline, with prices in various regions such as Beijing, Northeast China, and Shandong mostly falling. The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 4.38 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [2][4]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - In December, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 0.08 billion from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than expected. The monthly output of laying - hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in December was about 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. From January 16th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was about 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week, and the average culling age was 485 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. As of January 16th, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7391 tons, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous week, at a historical low. As of January 15th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 yuan from the previous week, and the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming on January 9th was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week. As of January 15th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, and in the circulation link was 1.05 days, both slightly decreased from the previous week [5][6]. 3.4 Trading Logic - Near the Spring Festival, the overall demand for egg spot is good, with prices rising. The profit situation is favorable, and the culling enthusiasm has decreased. The culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas from January 23rd was 16.27 million, a decrease of 5% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 490 days, an increase of 5 days from the previous week. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption slack period, it is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Prices - DCE01 decreased from 753.5 to 749.0, a drop of 4.5; DCE05 decreased from 783.0 to 777.5, a drop of 5.5; DCE09 decreased from 766.0 to 760.0, a drop of 6.0 [2] - I01 - I05 increased from -29.5 to -28.5, a rise of 1.0; I05 - I09 increased from 17.0 to 17.5, a rise of 0.5; I09 - I01 decreased from 12.5 to 11.0, a drop of 1.5 [2] Spot Prices - Most spot iron ore prices decreased, such as PB powder (60.8%) dropped from 790 to 783, a decrease of 7; Newman powder dropped from 790 to 783, a decrease of 7; etc [2] - The optimal delivery product is Carajás fines, with a price of 825, 01 - contract factory - warehouse basis of 64, 05 - contract factory - warehouse basis of 34, and 09 - contract factory - warehouse basis of 51 [2] Spot Variety Spreads - Some spreads increased, like Carajás fines - PB powder spread increased from 90 to 92, a rise of 2; Newman powder - Jinbuba powder spread increased from 47 to 48, a rise of 1 [2] Import Profits - Import profits of some varieties changed, such as Carajás fines' import profit decreased from -1 to -7, a decrease of 6; Newman powder's import profit increased from 50 to 51, a rise of 1 [2] Index Prices - The Platts 61% iron ore price decreased from 103.2 to 102.4, a decrease of 0.8; the Platts 65% iron ore price decreased from 118.7 to 118.4, a decrease of 0.3; the Platts 58% iron ore price decreased from 95.2 to 94.1, a decrease of 1.1 [2][4] 内外盘美金价差 - SGX main - DCE01 decreased from 8.4 to 4.6, a decrease of 3.9; SGX main - DCE05 decreased from 4.4 to 0.8, a decrease of 3.6; SGX main - DCE09 decreased from 6.8 to 3.0, a decrease of 3.9 [2][4]

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 2 月 3 日 | 第一部分 | | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/2/3 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | | 7926 | -12 | -0.15% | 10,482 | -18.10% | 53,118 | 5.31% | | PK610 | | 8232 | 20 | 0.24% | 64 | -56.46% | 2,727 | -0.11% | | PK601 | | 8210 | 4 | 0.05% | 2 | -71.43% | 28 | 3.70% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | | 现货 | | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 2 月 3 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5620 | -4 | 16 | 103691 | -27839 | 110111 | -8055 | | SM主力合约 | 5836 | 2 | 18 | 134856 | -51389 | 361029 | 948 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5420 | 0 | 70 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5680 | 0 | 0 | | 72%Fe ...

研究所 液化气研发报告 液化气日报 2026 年 2 月 3 日 液化气日报 日度数据 原油天然气市场 1. 美国原油生产商周一持续恢复油井生产，上月遭冬季风暴重创的产量中仅有约 0.7%仍处 于停产状态。2. 科威特正向外国投资者开放部分油田，并计划出租其部分输油管道网络。作 为欧佩克成员国，此举被视为科威特推动自身成为中东关键投资目的地的一项重要举措。科 威特石油集团正推进一项计划，邀请国际石油公司协助其生产部门科威特石油公司开发近海 油田。科威特首相艾哈迈德·阿卜杜拉在科威特的一场会议上表示，相关合作可能涉及 Jazah、Jlaiaa 和 Nokhitha 等油气藏，科威特希望在这些区域提高产量。尽管全球石油公 司多年来一直在科威特开展业务，但主要以技术服务合同为主。艾哈迈德表示，在允许海外 1 / 6 研究所 液化气研发报告 投资的油田中，国家将保留对资源的主权所有权。科威特计划到 2035 年将原油产能从目前 约每日 300 万桶提高至每日 400 万桶。3. 卡塔尔能源首席执行官：如果欧洲对液化天然气 的需求、数据中心和人工智能发展一切顺利，到 2030 年液化天然气将出现短缺，而非供应 过剩。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the recent drought in Argentina, the supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. The spot price of corn in North China is stable, while that in Northeast China is falling. The spot price of corn is still weak in the short - term, and the purchase price at northern ports has declined today. The price of wheat in North China is strong, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. The market is trading on the increased grain sales in North China before the Spring Festival, and there is still selling pressure on Northeast corn later. The rebound space of corn spot is limited, and there is still room for C03 to fall, but the decline of C07 is limited. The 03 starch is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [4][7][9] - The price of starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. Although the pre - holiday stocking is basically over, the North China spot is strong, and enterprises are still at a loss. The 03 starch follows corn to fluctuate weakly, and the spot price of starch is expected to stabilize in the short - term [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Disk**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2254, up 5 (0.22%); C2605 closed at 2270, up 10 (0.44%); C2509 closed at 2297, up 12 (0.52%). For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2570, up 6 (0.23%); CS2605 closed at 2572, unchanged; CS2509 closed at 2601, up 9 (0.35%) [2] - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Qinggang was 2135, down 10; the price in Songyuan Jiajie was 2200, unchanged. The basis for corn in different regions ranged from - 162 to 143. Starch spot prices also varied, with some rising, such as Yufeng up 30, and some unchanged. The basis for starch in different regions ranged from 128 to 348 [2] - **Spreads**: For corn inter - period spreads, C01 - C05 was - 16, down 5; for starch inter - period spreads, CS01 - CS05 was - 2, up 6; for cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 was 304, down 3 [2] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The drought in Argentina has led to a bottom - rebound of US corn, but it still fluctuates at the bottom due to global supply pressure. The import profit of foreign corn is rising. The spot price of corn in Northeast China is falling, and the price in North China is stable. The price difference between wheat and corn is large, and corn has cost - effectiveness. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building [4][7] - **Starch**: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the spot price of corn in Shandong is stable. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The price of starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. The by - product price is strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 03 starch is expected to fluctuate weakly [8] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel. Go short - term long on 07 and 05 corn on dips [10] - **Arbitrage**: Conduct a 3 - 7 corn reverse spread [11] 3.4 Corn Options - **Option Strategy**: Adopt a short - term cumulative put strategy and conduct rolling operations [12] 3.5 Related Figures - The report provides six figures, showing the North Port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread over different time periods [16][17][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The settlement price of the SCFIS European Line released on Monday slightly exceeded market expectations, driving the near - month futures to slightly repair the discount. The market is in a vacuum period of spot trading, and the futures trend is oscillating and slightly strong. The 2026/2/3 closing price of EC2604 was 1,237.9 points, up 4.5% from the previous trading day [6]. - In terms of spot freight rates, the prices of major shipping companies have declined to varying degrees. From a fundamental perspective, the demand is gradually entering a downward phase after peaking, and the supply in March has increased compared to the previous week's schedule. Geopolitical situations are volatile, and the resumption of large - scale shipping on the European Line in the first half of the year is still difficult. The impact of bad weather on shipping schedules is expected to vary in different regions. Spot freight rates are expected to have limited fluctuations around the Spring Festival, but attention should be paid to the decline rate after the festival [7]. - Regarding trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading of the 04 contract due to many short - term disturbances and large expected fluctuations. For arbitrage, a rolling operation of the long 6 - short 10 spread is recommended [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Futures Contract Quotes - EC2602: The closing price was 1,737.8, up 17.8 (1.03%), with a trading volume of 612 (up 108.16%) and an open interest of 1,883 (down 19.50%) [4]. - EC2604: The closing price was 1,237.9, up 53.3 (4.50%), with a trading volume of 29,296 (down 10.73%) and an open interest of 34,229 (up 1.25%) [4]. - EC2606: The closing price was 1,533.7, up 20.6 (1.36%), with a trading volume of 3,147 (down 47.06%) and an open interest of 13,458 (up 6.83%) [4]. - EC2608: The closing price was 1,597.9, down 10.0 (- 0.62%), with a trading volume of 353 (down 68.79%) and an open interest of 1,479 (up 2.00%) [4]. - EC2610: The closing price was 1,128.6, down 1.4 (- 0.12%), with a trading volume of 1,355 (down 45.89%) and an open interest of 7,677 (down 2.63%) [4]. - EC2612: The closing price was 1,439.0, up 34.0 (2.42%), with a trading volume of 29 (down 27.50%) and an open interest of 128 (up 5.79%) [4]. 3.1.2 Month - spread Structure - For example, the spread of EC02 - EC04 was 500, down 35.5; the spread of EC02 - EC06 was 204, down 2.8, etc. [4]. 3.2 Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European Line: The price was 1792.14 points, down 3.61% week - on - week and 21.20% year - on - year [4]. - SCFIS US West Line: The price was 1101.40 points, down 14.91% week - on - week and 55.24% year - on - year [4]. - SCFI Comprehensive Index: The price was 1316.75 points, down 9.68% week - on - week and 38.20% year - on - year [4]. - Other routes such as Shanghai - West Africa, Shanghai - South America, etc., also showed varying degrees of decline in freight rates [4]. 3.3 Fuel Costs - WTI Crude Oil Near - month Contract: The price was $61.45 per barrel, down 5.72% week - on - week and 14.82% year - on - year [4]. - Brent Crude Oil Near - month Contract: The price was $65.49 per barrel, down 6.22% week - on - week and 13.4% year - on - year [4]. 3.4 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations 3.4.1 Market Analysis - The SCFIS European Line settlement price on Monday exceeded expectations, mainly due to the impact of shipping schedule delays. It is expected that the index will still lag behind [6]. - In the spot market, the freight rates of major shipping companies have decreased. The demand is peaking and then declining, and the supply in March has increased. Geopolitical situations are unstable, and bad weather affects shipping schedules [7]. 3.4.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see for the 04 contract due to short - term disturbances and large expected fluctuations [8]. - Arbitrage: A rolling operation of the long 6 - short 10 spread is recommended [9]. 3.5 Industry News - The US and India agreed to establish a trade agreement. The US will reduce the reciprocal tariff on India from 25% to 18%, and India will gradually eliminate tariffs and non - tariff barriers against the US [10]. - From the 6th week (February 2 - 8) to the 10th week (March 2 - 8), 103 out of about 704 scheduled flights were cancelled, accounting for 15% of the planned flights. Cancellations were mainly on the Trans - Pacific Eastbound route (59%), followed by the Asia - Europe/Mediterranean route (33%) and the Trans - Atlantic Westbound route (8%) [10]. 3.6 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple figures such as the SCFIS European Line Index and SCFIS US West Line Index, SCFI Comprehensive Index, and container freight rates of different routes, as well as the basis of EC02 and EC04 contracts [11][17][19]

研究所 原油研发报告 原油日报 2026 年 2 月 3 日 原油现货市场日报 研究员： 赵若晨 期货从业证号： F03151390 投资咨询从业证号： Z0023496 ： zhaoruochen_qh | 极端天气 | 根据欧洲中期天气预报中心 （ECMWF） 及MetDesk与维萨拉公司的 | | --- | --- | | | 联合分析， 未来两周欧洲西部将迎来异常温暖的天气， 而北欧和欧洲 | | | 东部边缘地区则将遭遇严寒天气。 | | 贸易物流 | 在特朗普总统表示将停止俄罗斯石油进口作为两国更广泛贸易协议的 | | | 一部分后， 印度炼油商正寻求新德里就未来采购俄罗斯原油事宜提供 | | | 指导。 | | | 美国总统特朗普表示， 在印度总理莫迪同意停止购买俄罗斯石油后， | | | 他将把对印度的关税降至18%， 此举缓解了两国间的紧张关系。 | | | 伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽希奇在X平台上表示： "我已指示外交部长， 在具 | | | 备适宜环境——即不受威胁与不合理预期干扰的条件下， 秉持尊严、 | | | " 审慎与高效的原则， 推动公平公正的谈判。 | | 能源转型 | 当前美国 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 3 日 0 / 47 | 股指期货：做空动能释放 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：波澜不惊 4 | | 蛋白粕：供应仍有压力 | 盘面小幅震荡 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价震荡 | 国内价格偏弱 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂维持宽度震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货回落，盘面底部震荡 8 | | | 生猪：出栏压力好转 | 现货震荡运行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 金银：金银震荡初显企稳，节前风控仍是主线 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：巨幅震荡逐步收敛 风险释放后等待低多机会 17 | | 铜：恐慌情绪退坡，铜价企稳 17 | | 氧化铝：震荡为主 18 | | 电解铝：流动性收紧带动价格回调后 震荡为主 19 | | 铸造铝合金：连日回调后 铝合金随板块震荡 20 | ...