Group 1: Market Information - Fuji apple price index dropped from 107.61 to 107.18, a decrease of 0.43 [2] - The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits rose from 7.04 to 7.10, an increase of 0.06 [2] - Futures prices of AP01, AP05, and AP10 decreased by 134, 111, and 70 respectively [2] Group 2: Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 14.79 tons, a decrease of 6.02 tons from last week [4] - In September 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 0.97 tons, a 17.85% decrease from the previous month and a 1.10% decrease year - on - year; the cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 was 10.81 tons, a 19.49% increase year - on - year [4] - In September 2025, the fresh apple export volume was about 7.08 tons, a 3.50% increase from the previous month and a 6.32% decrease year - on - year [4] - The profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first and second - grade apples in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.4 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin from last week [5] - The mainstream transaction price of apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi was stable; the price of Qixia apples in Shandong was stable for high - quality goods and slightly declined for general goods [6] Group 3: Trading Logic - New - season apples have a low excellent - fruit rate due to weather, with small fruit diameters, high proportions of water cracks and mold, resulting in low warehouse - receipt production rates and high costs [7] - Apples are prone to deterioration after storage due to disease, increasing preservation difficulty and causing concerns about short shelf - lives for long - term delivery [7] - Merchants face high costs and difficulties in purchasing high - quality apples, and the expected cold - storage volume is low, so the spot price is likely to remain high [7] Group 4: Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, the recent trend of apples is strong, especially for far - month contracts [10] - For arbitrage and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [11][12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of laying hens remains at a high level, and the demand is generally weak. In the short - term without significant improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak. However, the recent increase in the amount of culled chickens and downstream restocking have led to a slight rebound in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - For futures contracts, JD01 closed at 3347, up 29 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3497, up 31; JD09 closed at 3861, up 12. In terms of spreads, 01 - 05 was - 150, down 2; 05 - 09 was - 364, up 19; 09 - 01 was 514, down 17. Regarding the ratios, 01 egg/corn was 1.56, up 0.01; 01 egg/soybean meal was 1.11, up 0.01, etc. [2] 2. Spot Market - The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas was 3.06 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin. The prices in different regions showed various trends, with most of the national mainstream prices remaining stable, some falling, and some rising slightly. The average price of culled chickens was 4 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged [2][4] 3. Fundamental Information - The average price of eggs in the main production areas decreased, and in the main sales areas also decreased. The national mainstream prices were mostly stable, with some fluctuations in different regions. In October, the national laying hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a slight decrease from the previous month but a 5.5% year - on - year increase. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in the sample enterprises was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease. The number of culled chickens in the main production areas in the week of October 31 was 20.53 million, an 11% increase from the previous week, and the average culling age was 494 days, a 5 - day decrease. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 2.1%. The weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.2 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.02 yuan/jin. The production and circulation inventories remained unchanged [4][5][6] 4. Trading Logic - The supply of laying hens is high, and the demand is weak. Without significant improvement in the short - term, egg prices are expected to be weak. However, the increase in culled chickens and downstream restocking have led to a slight rebound in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see [7] 5. Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. For arbitrage and options, it is also recommended to wait and see [8]

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 11 月 3 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 2601收盘价 各品种地区现货价 | | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8110 | (18) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8350 | | | | 8410 | 8290 | | 300 | 0 | 240 | 10 | 180 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8664 | (100) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8564 | | | | 863 ...

研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： 黑色金属日报 2025 年 11 月 03 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3190 元（-10），北京敬业 3180 元（-），上海鞍钢热卷 3310 元（-20），天津河钢热卷 3230 元（-20）。 【交易策略】 今日钢材继续回落，现货成交整体一般偏弱，盘面持续下跌，投机情绪较差。本 周钢联数据公布，钢材复产速度加快，尽管河北地区受环保因素影响高炉有所减产， 但影响范围有限；近期钢材需求继续修复，钢材去库速度加快，表需有所增加。由于 近期温度下降，钢材需求修复。近期煤矿端搅动大，首先是动力煤价格上涨带动煤矿 走强，其次煤矿事故频发，蒙煤通关发生阶段性搅动，乌海煤矿进行环保治理，带动 焦煤短期供应偏紧；然而板材库存较高，四季度资金释放放缓，下游回款慢，项目数 量同比下滑，而美国第二次降息落地，中美关税缓 ...

Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The long - term filling of mainstream shipping companies is good, but the spot market cargo collection is average. The spot price difference among shipping companies has widened, and the market continues to play a game on the subsequent freight rate trend. The EC market maintains a volatile trend. On November 3rd, EC2512 closed at 1851.7 points, up 2.64% from the previous day's closing price. On October 31st, the SCFI European line reported $1344/TEU, up 7.9% month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European line reported 1208.71 points after the market today, down 7.9% month - on - month, with the spot decline slightly exceeding market expectations [7]. - In terms of spot freight rates, the long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, and the spot price center is expected to gradually rise. It is expected that the spot freight rates from November to December are expected to gradually increase, and shipping companies are expected to continue to announce price increases. From the fundamental perspective, on the demand side, shipments from November to December are expected to gradually improve, and the impact of possible tariff improvements on the shipping rhythm needs to be concerned. On the supply side, from October to December 2025 and January 2026, the average weekly capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports is 233,600/266,200/293,900/296,100 TEU respectively. After the China - US meeting, the tariff reduction and the extension of the 301 port service fee require tracking of the shipping companies' cargo collection performance [8]. - Unilateral trading strategy: The market has factored in the peak - season expectations in advance. It is expected that there will be short - term volatility to determine the extent of the price increase. Temporarily stay on the sidelines. Arbitrage strategy: Stay on the sidelines [9]. Industry News - Since November 10, 2025, the compound tariff rate on Chinese - imported goods imposed by the US will be reduced by 10%, and the current suspension period of additional tariffs on China will be extended to November 10, 2026 (the current 10% benchmark tariff rate remains unchanged during the suspension period) [11]. - The US will extend the validity period of some "Section 301" tariff exemption measures originally due to expire on November 29, 2025, to November 10, 2026 [11]. - Since November 10, 2025, the US will suspend the implementation of the policy of "expanding the scope of end - user control for related parties of specific list entities" for one year [11]. - Since November 10, 2025, the US will suspend the implementation of measures taken based on the "Section 301" investigation of China's shipbuilding industry for one year. During this period, the US will continue consultations with China in accordance with Article 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and maintain historical cooperation with South Korea and Japan in revitalizing the US shipbuilding industry [11]. Market Data Futures Market - For EC2512, the closing price is 1851.7, up 47.7 points or 2.64% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 18,824 lots (down 68.37%) and an open interest of 29,320 lots (down 6.52%). For EC2602, the closing price is 1592.2, up 38.6 points or 2.48%, with a trading volume of 5,040 lots (down 55.74%) and an open interest of 18,781 lots (up 1.77%). Similar data are provided for other contracts such as EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 [6]. - In the month - spread structure, for example, the spread between EC12 and EC02 is 260, up 9.1 points; the spread between EC12 and EC04 is 667, up 24.4 points [6]. Container Freight Rates - The SCFIS European line index is 1208.71 points, down 7.92% week - on - week and 46.48% year - on - year; the SCFIS US West line index is 1267.15 points, up 14.43% week - on - week and down 54.40% year - on - year. The SCFI comprehensive index is 1550.70 points, up 10.49% week - on - week and down 29.04% year - on - year. Other routes' freight rates and their changes are also presented [6]. Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month contract is $60.49 per barrel, up 0.87% week - on - week and down 12.26% year - on - year; the price of Brent crude oil near - month contract is $64.58 per barrel, up 0.86% week - on - week and down 11.1% year - on - year [6].

黑色金属日报 2025 年 11 月 3 日 铁合金日报 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5526 | 26 | -38 | 118520 | -33382 | 163466 | -5461 | | SM主力合约 | 5794 | 22 | -8 | 161410 | -56913 | 350214 | -2225 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5350 | 0 | 30 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5650 | -10 | -30 ...

| 第一部分 前言概要 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【综合分析】 | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | | 第二部分 基本面情况 | 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | | 二、供应分析 | 7 | | | 三、11 | 月份进口预计 140 万吨以上 13 | | | 四、11 | 月需求增量有限，宏观层面变动不大 | 16 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 21 | | | | 免责声明 | 23 | 煤化板块研发报告 甲醇月报 2025 年 11 月 2 日 高库存压力仍存，甲醇延续跌势 第一部分 前言概要 【综合分析】 11 月份基本面展望，供应端，11 月份迎峰度夏用煤旺季结束，预计煤 价延续跌势，下旬之后，随着高温完全褪去，预计煤价偏弱，但下游持续补 库，煤价跌幅有限，煤制利润将维持，国内甲醇开工率继续创新高，11 月 检修装置陆续回归，整体国内供应仍相对充裕。进口方面，伊朗装置整体稳 定，10 月伊朗装船速度加快，11 月份进口量预计增加至 145 万吨，港口库 存去库缓慢。需求端来看，11 月份整体需求暂无增量，MTO 新增装置年底 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The U.S. corn market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn has declined, and the domestic corn spot has different trends in different regions. The short - term corn spot still has room to fall. The 01 corn futures have limited rebound space [4][6][8]. - The corn starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch price depends on corn price and downstream stocking. The enterprise profit is good due to the large decline in corn price. The 01 starch futures are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Market**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2141 with a 0.51% increase, C2605 at 2244 with a 0.76% increase, and C2509 at 2263 with a 0.44% increase. For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2453 with a 0.53% increase, CS2605 at 2558 with a 0.39% increase, and CS2509 at 2601 with a 0.46% increase [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions had different changes, with prices in Qinggang falling by 5, and in Zhucheng Xingmao rising by 52. Starch spot prices in most regions remained stable, except for Yufeng which decreased by 30. The basis of corn and starch also varied in different regions [2]. - **Spread**: The spreads of corn and corn starch futures contracts and cross - variety spreads had different changes. For example, C01 - C05 was - 103 with a - 6 change, and CS01 - CS05 was - 105 with a 3 change [2]. Part 2: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The U.S. corn market is affected by the high - yield situation and the easing of Sino - U.S. relations. The import profit of foreign corn has declined. The domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. The short - term corn spot still has room to fall, and the market is concerned about the selling pressure of Jilin corn at the end of October [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn starch inventory has declined. The starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream stocking. The enterprise profit is good, but the corn starch spot may fall later [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The U.S. corn is expected to oscillate narrowly. The 05 and 01 corn long positions should be closed and wait and see. The spread between 01 corn and starch can be tried to shrink when it is high [8][9]. Part 3: Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put and call strategy with rolling operations [11]. Part 4: Related Attachments - There are six figures, including the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the spreads of corn 1 - 5 and corn starch 1 - 5, the basis of corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of corn starch 01 contract [13][15][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The propylene market is under pressure, and the pattern of high supply and weak demand is difficult to change. In the absence of strong cost pull and significant improvement in demand, the market drive will return more to fundamental logic. The follow - up needs to closely monitor OPEC+ production policies, the actual impact of winter energy demand on propane and coal prices, and changes in downstream demand [3][52]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In October, the center of propylene prices moved down overall. The propylene futures 2601 contract fell below 6,000 yuan/ton on October 21. After the National Day, the supply increased due to the restart of PDH units, and the cost support of PDH - made propylene weakened. In late October, the sanctions on Russian oil companies by the US led to a rebound in international oil prices and drove up propylene prices. However, high supply and inventory suppressed the price, and it dropped at the end of the month [2]. - In October, the average load of domestic propylene units was 78.47%, an increase of 1.34% compared to September. Although some units were under maintenance, the overall load remained high. The production in September decreased by 110,000 tons to 5.52 million tons compared to August, and it was expected to rebound in October. The demand was weak due to the low operating rate of polypropylene, and the supply - demand pattern remained loose [8]. 2. Market Outlook - Supply side: OPEC+ is expected to maintain a small increase in production, which may lead to a long - term supply surplus of global crude oil. Domestic propylene load is expected to remain at a high level of about 78%, and the restart of large - scale units in November and December will further increase supply [3][27][52]. - Cost side: The cost support may show a differentiated trend. The long - term supply surplus of crude oil may make the support of oil - based cost unstable. The seasonal increase in propane's combustion demand in winter may support CP prices and slow down the decline of PDH process costs, but its impact on propylene prices depends on downstream acceptance [3][52]. - Demand side: The recovery of demand is not optimistic. The operating rate of polypropylene, the largest downstream product, remains low, and the poor profit situation of most downstream derivative industries is difficult to improve in the short term [3][52]. 3. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Consolidation in a range [5][53]. - Arbitrage: 1 - 2 reverse spread [5][53]. - Options: Double - selling options [5][53].

| 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | 二、美国市场基本面 | 4 | | 三、国际 LNG | 市场基本面情况 6 | | 四、后市展望 | 8 | | | 免责声明 9 | 能化板块研发报告 天然气 11 月报 2025 年 11 月 3 日 冬季前平静的市场下暗流涌动 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 美国方面今年整体产量增长较快，阿巴拉契亚和海恩斯维尔贡献较大， 上半年补库需求支撑价格维持高位，当库存恢复健康水平后 HH 价格承压， 然而 10 月下旬产量明显下滑，主要来自于海恩斯维尔，液化需求进一步上升， 叠加天气预期转冷，整体情绪带动价格大幅反弹。 国际 LNG 方面在地缘政治风险情绪基本褪去后，欧洲的低库存以及亚洲 疲软的需求使得在 JKM/TTF 价格近期一直维持在 11 美元/MMBTU 附近。 【市场展望】 美国方面，前期补库使得库存水平已接近五年来的峰值，入冬前高库存 水平会对价格产生一定压力。明年的市场价格中枢更多看 26 年出冬时的库 ...