Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an agricultural product research report focusing on eggs, dated July 15, 2025 [2] - It includes information on the futures and spot markets, fundamental analysis, trading logic, and strategies [3][6][9] Group 2: Futures Market - Futures prices: JD01 closed at 3620, up 8; JD05 at 3413, up 1; JD09 at 3615, up 13 [3] - Cross - month spreads: 01 - 05 spread was 207, up 7; 05 - 09 was - 202, down 12; 09 - 01 was - 5, up 5 [3] - Ratios: 01 egg/corn was 1.62, up 0.01; 01 egg/bean meal was 1.20, up 0.01 [3] Group 3: Spot Market - Egg prices:产区均价 was 2.78 yuan/jin, up 0.16; 销区均价 was 2.96 yuan/jin, up 0.18 [3] -淘汰鸡 prices: The average price was 4.77 yuan/jin, up 0.04 [3] Group 4: Fundamental Information - Egg prices: Main production area prices were stable, with a national mainstream price hold. Beijing's major markets had stable prices [6] - In - production laying hens: In June, the inventory was 1.34 billion, up 0.06 billion from last month, 6.7% year - on - year [7] - Chicken chick output: In June, the sample enterprise output was 40.75 million, down 9% month - on - month, up 1.9% year - on - year [7] - Hen culling: In the week of July 11, the culling volume was 16.27 million, down 5% from the previous week [7] - Egg sales: As of July 10, the sales volume in representative sales areas was 7592 tons, with little change [8] - Inventory: As of July 10, production - link inventory was 1.05 days, down 0.09 days; circulation - link was 1.17 days, down 0.1 days [8] - Profit: As of July 10, the weekly average profit per jin was - 0.68 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin [8] Group 5: Trading Logic - The downward space of futures prices is limited due to current profit conditions [9] - The upward space of the September contract depends on future hen culling volume [9] - Spot prices are expected to strengthen seasonally, and the September contract may rise after hitting the bottom [9] Group 6: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high [10] - Arbitrage: Hold off [10] - Options: Sell put options [10]

苹果周报：需求表现一般 果价稳中有落 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 第一部分 逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 GALAXY FUTURES 1 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 苹果现货分析 GALAXY FUTURES 3 ◼ 库存量监测：据统计，截止到2025年7月3日全国冷库库存比例约为6.88%，本周期（20250626-0702）下降0.69个百分点，较去年同期（20240704）低3.59个百分点， 去库存率为89.18%。山东地区冷库库容比为11.25%，库容比下降1.06个百分点，本周山东产区冷库出货量与上周相比略有增加，冷库看货客商数量增加，成交量亦小幅 增加。产地存储商出货意愿良好，个别存储商着急出货。85#以上大型果市场需求一般，部分产区此类货源价格微幅下滑。陕西冷库库容比为6.39%，库容比降低0.64个 百分点。产地冷库几乎无交易，没客商包装自有货源发往市场销售，或者销售之前包装好的货源。当前交易主要集中在山东产区。 ◼ 钢联数据：截至2025年7月9日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量为91.49万吨，环 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, it is expected that the oils and fats will fluctuate in a narrow range. YP09 spread narrowing strategy can consider partial profit - taking, and after it widens, continue to consider narrowing at high levels. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [11][12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2509 is 8012 with a rise of 18, palm oil is 8708 with a fall of 40, and rapeseed oil is 9404 with a fall of 20. The basis of different varieties and regions shows various changes, such as soybean oil's basis in Zhangjiagang is 190 with a - 10 change [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: For the 9 - 1 monthly spread, soybean oil is 46 with a rise of 12, palm oil is 16 with a fall of 14, and rapeseed oil is 68 with a fall of 13 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 09 contract, Y - P is - 696 with a rise of 58, OI - Y is 1392, OI - P is 696 with a rise of 20, and the oil - meal ratio is 2.69 with a rise of 0.02 [3] - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil's disk profit from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 165, and the disk profit of European rapeseed oil is - 642 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: As of the 28th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory is 104.94 million tons, palm oil is 56.3 million tons, and rapeseed oil is 70.6 million tons [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: ITS estimates that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16%, and Amspec estimates a 5.29% decrease. Compared with the first 10 days, exports decreased [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 56.3 million tons, a 5.21% increase from last week. It is expected to fluctuate, and one can consider buying on dips [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 104.94 million tons, a 2.91% increase from last week. It is expected to be in a short - term shock [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 70.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons from last week. It is expected to be in a large - range shock, and one should pay attention to ship purchases and policy changes [8][10] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term, oils and fats are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [11] - **Arbitrage**: YP09 spread narrowing can consider partial profit - taking, and continue to consider narrowing at high levels after it widens [12] - **Options**: Wait and see [13] 3.4 Related Attachments - There are 8 figures showing the basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different oils and fats from 2016 - 2025 [16][19]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Apple Daily Report, July 15, 2024 [2] - Report type: Agricultural product research report - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - The index of Gongqian Suye is 110.95, up 0.89 from the previous trading day. The price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 is 4.80, unchanged. The price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 is 3.95, down 0.15. The price of Penglai first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 is 4.05, down 0.15. The price of Yiyuan paper - bag 70 is 2.40, unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.27, down 0.06 [3] Futures Prices - AP01 is 7713, up 24 from the previous close; AP05 is 7742, down 6; AP10 is 7862, up 24. AP01 - AP05 is - 29, up 30; AP05 - AP10 is - 120, down 30; AP10 - AP01 is 149, unchanged [3] Basis - The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against AP01 is 187, down 324; against AP05 is 158, down 294; against AP10 is 38, down 324 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of July 9, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China is 91.49 million tons, a decrease of 7.81 million tons from last week. The shipping speed is similar to last week and still slower than the same period last year [4] - In May 2025, the import volume of fresh apples is 1.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.04% and a year - on - year increase of 16.77%. The cumulative import volume from January to May 2025 is 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.78%. The export volume in May 2025 is about 4.55 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.15% [7] - Today, the mainstream transaction price of apples in the producing areas remains stable. The number of buyers has slightly increased in the past two days, and the purchasing enthusiasm has slightly improved. Buyers are mainly looking for striped red apples, but the satisfactory supply is scarce. The storage merchants' willingness to sell is good. In the Shaanxi production area, early - maturing apples of different varieties are gradually on the market, and the purchase price of the current listed supply is mostly higher than the same period last year [7] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants is 0.7 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from last week [7] - The mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Shandong is stable. The price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmers' striped red apples is 3.3 - 3.8 yuan per catty, and the striped ones are 3.3 - 4.2 yuan per catty. The price of merchants' striped red apples is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty, and the striped ones are 3.8 - 4.8 yuan per catty. The price of general goods is 2.8 - 3.0 yuan per catty, and the third - grade merchants' goods are 2.5 - 3.0 yuan per catty. The mainstream transaction price of 70 apples is 2.5 - 2.7 yuan per catty, priced according to quality. The number of buyers has slightly increased, and the transaction is stable [8] Trading Logic - On the spot side, the current market inventory is low, the market demand is in the off - season, and the spot sales are average. The output of the new - season apples is expected to change little compared with this season. Before the new - season apples are on the market, the supply is low and the demand is weak, and the market supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a long - biased strategy when the price is low - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see - Options: Sell put options [10] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, the price difference between different AP contracts, the total apple arrival volume in Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, the national cold - storage apple inventory, and the national cold - storage apple delivery volume [14][23][29]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: July 15, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 closed at 13820 with a 5-point increase, volume of 59,553 hands (up 21286), and open interest of 215,751 (up 1145) [3] - CF05 closed at 13785 with a 5-point decrease, volume of 1,874 hands (up 958), and open interest of 10,369 (up 132) [3] - CF09 closed at 13850 with a 25-point decrease, volume of 207,411 hands (up 68734), and open interest of 546,688 (down 11044) [3] - CY01 closed at 20035 with a 35-point decrease, volume of 21 hands (down 15), and open interest of 92 (up 1) [3] - CY05 closed at 0 with no change, volume of 0 hands, and open interest of 2 (no change) [3] - CY09 closed at 20050 with a 70-point decrease, volume of 7077 hands (up 1693), and open interest of 21168 (down 1042) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was at 15302 yuan/ton, up 36 [3] - Cot A was at 78.05 cents/pound, down 0.40 [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was at 76.62, down 0.30 [3] - Polyester staple fiber was at 7450 yuan/ton, up 70 [3] - Viscose staple fiber was at 12600 yuan/ton, no change [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 35 (up 10), 5 - 9 spread was - 65 (up 20), 9 - 1 spread was 30 (down 30) [3] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 20035 (down 35), 5 - 9 spread was - 20050 (up 70), 9 - 1 spread was 15 (down 35) [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6215 (down 40), CY05 - CF05 was (13785) (up 5), CY09 - CF09 was 6200 (down 45) [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1508 (up 77), sliding - scale tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 822 (up 53), domestic - foreign cotton yarn spread was - 1589 (down 14) [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of the week ending July 12, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 13.6% (up 6.3 percentage points week - on - week, 3.1 percentage points slower than last year) [6] - As of July 13, the budding rate of US cotton in 15 major planting states was 61% (1 percentage point slower than last year and the five - year average), the boll - setting rate was 23% (3 percentage points slower than last year, 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average), and the good - to - excellent rate was 54% (9 percentage points higher than last year, 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average) [6] - CONAB's July 2024/25 Brazilian cotton production forecast was 393.8 million tons (up 2.5 million tons from the previous month), with planted area at 2.0838 million hectares and yield at 126 kg/mu [6] Trading Logic - US cotton may be slightly weak in the short term but has potential upside due to possible trade negotiations and weather factors [7] - Zhengzhou cotton may face limited upside due to average downstream demand and potential additional sliding - scale tariff quotas, despite low current supply [7] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to be slightly bullish and range - bound, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish and range - bound in the short term [8] - Arbitrage: Hold off [9] - Options: Sell put options [9][15] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The all - cotton greige fabric market has been sluggish, with low sales, high inventory, few orders, and low loom operation rates [11] - The pure - cotton yarn market has seen little change, with stable prices, low downstream purchases, and continued production cuts by inland spinning mills [11] Group 4: Options Option Data - CF509C13800.CZC closed at 180.00 (down 41.9%), with an implied volatility of 9.3% [13] - CF509P13600.CZC closed at 62.00 (down 50.8%), with an implied volatility of 9.7% [13] - CF509P13000.CZC closed at 16.00 (up 23.1%), with an implied volatility of 14.3% [13] Volatility - The 10 - day HV of Zhengzhou cotton was 3.2429, slightly lower than the previous day [13] Option Strategy - The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.9770, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.7034, with increased trading volume for both calls and puts and a rise in bearish sentiment [14] - Recommend selling put options [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current cotton market is influenced by both domestic and international factors. Internationally, macro - factors have a positive impact on US cotton, with its growth and sales showing specific trends. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend in the short - term. The supply and demand situation at home will also affect the price trend, and macro - factors such as tariff extensions may bring uncertainties [8][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: Macro - factors have a certain positive impact on US cotton, and its trend is expected to be slightly upward with oscillations. The growth progress of US cotton in planting, budding, and boll - setting is slightly slower year - on - year, but the excellent rate in the main production areas has recovered above the annual average, including in Texas. As of the week ending June 26, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing decreased by 13% week - on - week and 66% compared to the average of the previous four weeks, while 2025/26 annual signing was 2.42 tons. The weekly shipment of 2024/25 US upland cotton increased by 39% week - on - week and 9% compared to the average of the previous four weeks [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of June 27, the number of un - priced contracts by sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 252 to 25402, equivalent to a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of un - priced contracts by sellers in the 25/26 annual increased by 599 to 43715, equivalent to 990,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of un - priced contracts by sellers on ICE decreased to 48293, equivalent to 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 874 compared to last week, equivalent to a decrease of 20,000 tons [8]. - **Brazil**: As of the week ending June 28, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 5%, a 1 - percentage - point increase week - on - week and 4.5% slower than the same period last year. The slowdown in harvesting is mainly due to the backward progress in the main production areas, which may be related to the slow growth of crops [8]. - **Global Cotton Situation**: According to the latest USDA data in June, the global cotton production in 25/26 decreased by 178,000 tons to 25.47 million tons, with China's production increasing by 218,000 tons, India's decreasing by 217,000 tons, and the US's decreasing by 109,000 tons to 3.048 million tons. Total consumption decreased by 70,000 tons to 25.638 million tons, with India's consumption decreasing by 109,000 tons to 555,200 tons. The global ending inventory in June decreased by 344,000 tons to 16.721 million tons, with the US's inventory decreasing by 196,000 tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Market Trend**: This week, Zhengzhou cotton showed an oscillating and slightly upward trend, and it is expected to maintain this trend in the short - term [15]. - **Supply Side**: As of mid - June, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.1269 million tons, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. As of June 27, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.8799 million tons, a decrease of 111,600 tons (3.73%) compared to last week. As of July 3, the cumulative sales volume of 2024 cotton was 6.301 million tons, 958,400 tons higher than the five - year average [15]. - **Demand Side**: Currently, it is the off - season for market consumption. In mid - June, the yarn inventory days in China were 23.86, at a medium level in the same period over the years, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46, also at a relatively low - medium level in the same period over the years. As of July 3, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 71.1%, a 0.14% decrease compared to last week, with little overall change. There was no obvious change in the downstream orders of spinning mills [15]. 3.3 Option Strategy - **Volatility Judgment**: The 30 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton yesterday was 5.6505. - **Option Strategy Suggestion**: The position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton on July 3 was 0.9489, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.5368, with a decrease in both call and put trading volumes. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: When the boost from new cotton purchases to the market is limited, if the demand side does not show obvious improvement, the price may weaken. If the demand side performs well, it will have a positive impact on the market. Tariff extensions in July and August may bring uncertainties, and if the tariff issue eases, commodity prices may strengthen [24]. - **Specific Strategies**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will be slightly upward with oscillations, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show an oscillating and slightly upward trend. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, it is recommended to sell put options [24]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: The report presents the internal and external cotton price difference under 1% tariff, as well as the price trends of domestic cotton and imported cotton under 1% tariff [26]. - **Inventory Situation**: It shows the historical data of cotton commercial inventory, industrial inventory, and reserve inventory [30]. - **Basis Situation**: It includes the basis situations of cotton in different months and the basis trend of US seven - major market upland cotton [32].

Group 1: Market Review - London gold is currently trading around $3360, and London silver around $38.25. Shanghai gold futures rose 0.25% to 780.4 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 0.52% to 9225 yuan/kg [3] - The US dollar index opened higher and then weakened, currently trading around 97.97 [4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuated slightly, currently around 4.415% [5] - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar oscillated at a high level, currently around 7.173 [6] Group 2: Important Information - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 50 days, the US will impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russia, and the EU is preparing to impose counter - tariff on $72 billion of US goods [7] - Fed's Harker said there is no urgent need to cut interest rates, and Powell asked the Fed inspector general to review the renovation cost of the Fed building [7] - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 94.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 5.2%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 36.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 60.0% [7] Group 3: Logical Analysis - As the tariff negotiation deadline approaches, the tariff game has tightened. Due to tariff uncertainty, the Fed is taking a wait - and - see approach. The market is waiting for the US CPI data tonight. Silver is in short supply due to tax - increase expectations, and precious metals are expected to continue a strong trend [8][10] Group 4: Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, consider holding long positions based on the 5 - day moving average [11] - For arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [12][13] Group 5: Data Reference - There are multiple data charts including actual yield and precious metal trends, US dollar index and precious metal trends, internal and external futures trends, futures - spot trends, internal - external price differences, gold - silver ratio, ETF holdings, futures positions, futures inventories, trading volumes, TD data, and Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [14][16][21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the report. Core Views - The international soybean market is generally characterized by a relatively loose supply - demand balance. The US soybean market may still face pressure, while the situation of Brazil and Argentina also has an impact on the market. The domestic soybean market may face inventory accumulation pressure. [4][6] - The raw sugar market is weak due to global supply - demand expectations but may be supported by buying at the bottom, maintaining short - term oscillations. The domestic sugar market is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively. [12] - The palm oil market is in a stage of production and inventory accumulation, and the domestic soybean oil market is in a phased inventory accumulation. The rapeseed oil market has a bottom - support on the futures market. Overall, the short - term upward momentum of the oil market is weak. [20] - The US corn market may rebound, and the domestic corn market is expected to have limited downward space. The spot price may be weak in the short term, and the futures price will fluctuate at the bottom. [27] - The pig market is oscillating, with supply pressure improving, but the high inventory may limit price increases. [32] - The peanut market is expected to be short - term strong and oscillating, but may decline in the medium - long term due to the expected increase in planting area. [36] - The egg price is expected to seasonally strengthen, and the September contract may rise after reaching the bottom. [45] - The apple market has low inventory and weak demand in the short term, with a likely oscillating trend. [49] - The US cotton market may be slightly weak in the short term but has potential positive factors. The Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space. [56] Summary by Categories Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**: CBOT soybean index dropped 0.12% to 1012.25 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.21% to $279 per short ton. [2] - **相关资讯**: As of July 10, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 147,045 tons. As of July 13, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%. The US soybean meal export sales reached 2 million tons as of July 3. As of July 11, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52%. [2][3] - **逻辑分析**: The international soybean market has a loose supply - demand balance. The domestic market may face inventory accumulation pressure. [4][6] - **策略建议**: For unilateral trading, buy in small quantities at low points; for arbitrage, conduct M91 long spreads; for options, wait and see. [7] Sugar - **外盘情况**: The ICE US sugar futures dropped 1.57% to 16.31 cents per pound. [8] - **重要资讯**: The spot price of Guangxi sugar rose, and the demand in the peak season led to inventory reduction. The US 2025/26 sugar production is expected to be 9.195 million short tons. In the 2024/2025 season, Yunnan's sugar production increased significantly. [9][10][11] - **逻辑分析**: The raw sugar market is weak but may oscillate. The domestic sugar market is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively. [12] - **持仓建议**: For unilateral trading, the Zhengzhou sugar futures will oscillate in the short term; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, use out - of - the - money ratio spread options. [13][14] Oil - **外盘情况**: The overnight CBOT US soybean oil futures changed by 0.02% to 53.95 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil futures changed by - 0.09% to 4,228 ringgit per ton. [16] - **相关资讯**: In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60%, and the total vegetable oil imports increased by 30.6%. As of July 13, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%. As of July 11, the domestic palm oil and soybean oil inventories increased. [17][18][19] - **逻辑分析**: The palm oil market is in production and inventory accumulation. The domestic soybean oil market is in phased inventory accumulation, and the rapeseed oil market has a bottom - support. [20] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the short - term upward momentum of the oil market is weak, and it may oscillate; for arbitrage and options, wait and see. [21][22][23] Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: The CBOT corn futures rose, with the December contract up 2.2% to 419.0 cents per bushel. [25] - **重要资讯**: The CBOT corn futures rose due to bargain - hunting and short - covering. The US corn production is expected to be strong. Brazil's corn shipments decreased. The good - excellent rate of US corn was 74%. The North Port's corn purchase price was stable. [26] - **逻辑分析**: The US corn market may rebound, and the domestic corn market is expected to have limited downward space. The spot price may be weak in the short term, and the futures price will fluctuate at the bottom. [27] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the December US corn futures will oscillate at the bottom, and the September contract should be observed; for arbitrage, close the long - corn and short - September - corn positions gradually; for options, those with spot can consider the high - selling strategy carefully. [28][29][30] Pig - **相关资讯**: The pig price oscillated. The prices of piglets and sows were stable. The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.6%. [32] - **逻辑分析**: The pig market is oscillating, with supply pressure improving, but the high inventory may limit price increases. [32] - **策略建议**: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, conduct LH91 long spreads; for options, wait and see. [33] Peanut - **重要资讯**: The prices of peanuts in different regions were stable. The arrival volume of an oil factory was 200 tons. The peanut oil price was stable, and the peanut meal sales were slow. As of July 10, the peanut inventory of sample enterprises decreased. [35] - **逻辑分析**: The peanut market is expected to be short - term strong and oscillating, but may decline in the medium - long term due to the expected increase in planting area. [36] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, short the October contract at high prices and wait and see currently; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option. [37][39][40] Egg - **重要资讯**: The egg price in the main production and sales areas rose. The inventory of laying hens increased in June. The egg sales volume decreased. The production and circulation inventories decreased. The egg - farming profit decreased. [42][43][44] - **交易逻辑**: The egg price is expected to seasonally strengthen, and the September contract may rise after reaching the bottom. [45] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, consider building long positions in the September contract when the plum - rain season is about to end; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options. [45] Apple - **重要资讯**: As of July 2, the apple cold - storage inventory was 993,100 tons. In May 2025, the apple import volume decreased, and the export volume decreased. The apple price in the origin was stable, and the sales were slow. [47] - **交易逻辑**: The apple market has low inventory and weak demand in the short term, with a likely oscillating trend. [49] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the AP10 contract is expected to oscillate, and consider buying low and selling high; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options. [50][54] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: The ICE US cotton futures rose 1.02% to 68.11 cents per pound. [52] - **重要资讯**: As of July 13, the good - excellent rate of US cotton was 54%. As of July 3, the un - priced contracts of ICE cotton increased. In June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports decreased slightly. [53][54][55] - **交易逻辑**: The US cotton market may be slightly weak in the short term but has potential positive factors. The Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space. [56] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the US cotton is expected to oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate in the short term with limited upward space; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options. [57][59]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Non - ferrous Metals Derivatives Daily Report [1][6] - Date: July 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2508 contract closed at 78,090 yuan/ton, down 0.26%, and the Shanghai Copper index increased by 2,144 lots to 512,300 lots [2] - Spot: In the East China market, the monthly spread converged significantly, downstream consumption was weak, and the premium opened high and went low; in the Guangdong market, inventory increased for 2 consecutive days, and downstream consumption was inactive; in the North China market, the monthly spread structure reversed on the delivery day, and the spot premium and discount rose sharply, but the trading activity was not high [3] Important Information - GDP: In the first half of the year, the GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. In the second quarter, GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year [4] - Imports: In June 2025, the import of copper ore and concentrates was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to June, the cumulative import was 14.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. In June, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 464,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. From January to June, the cumulative import was 2.633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% [4] Logic Analysis - Tariffs: The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st with a rate of 50%. The US's siphoning of refined copper from the world is nearing its end. Before August 1st, in - transit supplies will continue to arrive at ports, and the Comex copper inventory will continue to increase. After that, the supply to the US will decrease significantly, and the supply shortage in non - US regions will be alleviated [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: No specific strategy mentioned - Arbitrage: No specific strategy mentioned - Options: No specific strategy mentioned Group 3: Alumina Market Review - Futures: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 38 yuan to 3,165 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 8,337 lots to 413,800 lots [9] - Spot: The northern spot comprehensive price of Alumina by Aladdin rose 5 yuan to 3,175 yuan; the national weighted index rose 8.6 yuan to 3,210.8 yuan [9] Relevant Information - Policy: On July 1st, General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, emphasizing the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy [10] - Inventory: As of July 15th, the alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 25,526 tons, a net increase of 2,111 tons [11] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: The operating capacity of alumina remained flat week - on - week, but production was still increasing. The supply - demand pattern of alumina in July will gradually evolve from a tight balance to a structural surplus, but the demand for warehouse receipts may disperse the pressure of spot surplus [14] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term strong and volatile, high - selling and low - buying within the range [15] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [16] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [16] Group 4: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 20,430 yuan/ton, and the weighted position decreased by 8,776 lots to 635,800 lots [18] - Spot: On July 15th, the spot price of aluminum ingots in East China was 20,510 yuan, up 50 yuan; in South China, it was 20,500 yuan, up 40 yuan; in the Central Plains, it was 20,380 yuan, up 50 yuan [18] Relevant Information - Inventory: On July 15th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major markets decreased by 0.3 tons compared with the previous trading day [19] - Industry: In May 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 92.92GW, a year - on - year increase of 388.03%. From January to May, the cumulative installed capacity was 197.85GW, a year - on - year increase of 149.97% [19] Trading Logic - Macro: The US tariff negotiation deadline was postponed to August 1st. Domestically, attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings this month [22] - Supply - demand: The negative feedback of the fundamentals is still there. The production of aluminum rods has been reduced for three consecutive weeks, and the ingot casting has increased, driving up the inventory of aluminum ingots in social warehouses. The demand in the off - season may not be too weak [22] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum prices are under pressure at high levels in the short term, maintaining a bearish mindset [23] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [23] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [23] Group 5: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract remained flat at 19,790 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 31 lots to 9,982 lots [25] - Spot: On July 15th, the spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in East China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China remained flat at 19,600 yuan/ton, and the imported price remained flat at 19,300 yuan/ton [25] Relevant Information - Production: In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons, of which the output of ADC12 increased by 2.46 million tons to 32.6 million tons [25] - Inventory: As of July 14th, the daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 26,680 tons, an increase of 1,368 tons from the previous trading day [26] Trading Logic - Supply: Enterprises are generally active in shipping, but actual transactions are blocked. The supply of deliverable products is stable, and non - deliverable product inventory is transferred to social inventory. Raw materials are in short supply [27] - Demand: Downstream die - casting enterprises generally have insufficient orders, mostly replenish inventory in small quantities as needed or consume inventory, and postpone purchases except for rigid demand [27] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Under pressure at high levels, maintaining a bearish mindset [30] - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan; consider spot - futures arbitrage when the spot - futures price difference is above 400 yuan [30] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [30] Group 6: Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 contract fell 0.54% to 22,085 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc index decreased by 1,770 lots to 236,500 lots [31] - Spot: In the Shanghai market, traders continued to actively sell goods. In the morning, the zinc price on the disk dropped, and some downstream enterprises placed orders to pick up goods. Some traders reported that spot transactions had improved [31] Relevant Information - Production: A zinc smelter in Central China plans to conduct a regular maintenance for half a month in August, which is expected to affect about 1,500 tons of production [32] - Inventory: As of July 14th, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major markets was 93,100 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with July 7th [32] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Currently, the domestic zinc supply continues to increase, consumption has entered the off - season, and social inventory is showing a cumulative trend. Zinc prices may be under pressure to decline due to fundamentals [32] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Profitable short positions can continue to be held, and short positions can still be added at high prices [35] - Arbitrage: Buy put options or sell call options [35] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [35] Group 7: Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2508 contract fell 0.76% to 16,930 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead index increased by 1,494 lots to 96,300 lots [37] - Spot: On July 15th, the average price of SMM1 lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. Refined lead holders' quotes followed the decline slightly [37] Relevant Information - Inventory: As of July 14th, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five major markets was 63,400 tons, an increase of 5,600 tons compared with July 7th [38] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Currently, recycled lead is still in a loss - making situation, and the willingness to start production is difficult to improve. In July, there are maintenance plans for domestic primary lead smelting, which will have a certain impact on primary lead supply. The traditional peak season for lead - acid batteries is approaching, and the production of battery enterprises has improved [39] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Lead prices may fluctuate at high levels in the short term, and high - selling and low - buying can be carried out within the range [40] - Arbitrage: Sell put options [40] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [40] Group 8: Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2508 fell 1,390 to 119,380 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 14,499 lots [42] - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 100 to 2,050 yuan/ton, the premium of Russian nickel remained flat at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of electrowon nickel remained flat at 100 yuan/ton [42] Relevant Information - Exploration: Canadian Nickel Company announced positive results from its latest exploration drilling at the MacDiarmid project, discovering a new mineralized area [43] - Production: In June, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 129.2GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 51.4% [43] Logic Analysis - Market: The market's concern about US tariffs has resurfaced, and commodities generally fell overnight. The supply and demand of refined nickel are both weak in the off - season, and the short - term inventory is steadily increasing slightly [45] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Weakening in a volatile manner [45] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [46] - Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [47] Group 9: Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2508 rose 10 to 12,695 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 11,703 lots [49] - Spot: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel was 12,400 - 12,600 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled stainless steel was 12,150 - 12,200 yuan/ton [49] Relevant Information - Transaction: On July 14th, a stainless steel plant in South China purchased high - nickel pig iron at a price of 900 yuan/nickel point, with a total transaction volume of over 10,000 tons and a delivery period in mid - to - late August [50] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Stainless steel's external demand is restricted by tariffs and re - export obstacles, and domestic demand has also entered the off - season. The demand is not optimistic, and it is difficult to absorb the current inventory pressure [50] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rebounds [51] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [52] Group 10: Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: Affected by market rumors, the main contract of industrial silicon futures strengthened significantly during the day, closing at 8,785 yuan/ton, up 2.81% [54] - Spot: The spot price of industrial silicon strengthened significantly during the day, generally rising by 100 - 150 yuan/ton [56] Relevant Information - Policy: On July 1st, the US Department of Commerce launched a 232 - clause investigation into imported drones and their components, as well as polysilicon and its derivatives [57] Comprehensive Analysis - Supply - demand: The production of leading large - scale factories has been reduced by nearly 40%, with a monthly output reduction of 60,000 tons; southwest silicon factories are gradually resuming production, with a monthly output increase of about 40,000 tons. In July, the output of industrial silicon decreased by 20,000 tons [58] Strategy - Unilateral: Strong in the short term [58] - Options: None for now [58] - Arbitrage: Stop profiting from the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [58] Group 11: Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: Affected by market news, the main contract of polysilicon futures rose and then fell during the day, closing at 42,470 yuan/ton, up 2.78% [59] - Spot: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network statistics, the spot price of polysilicon was adjusted downward during the day, and the average price of N - type granular silicon decreased by 0.5 yuan/kg [59] Relevant Information - Market: After SMM's research, the market views and price adjustment trends of the top 5 component factories are divergent. Some leading component enterprises have officially raised the distributed guidance price [60] Comprehensive Analysis - Price: If a fixed price is set as the minimum price limit for the polysilicon industry, the high point of the polysilicon futures price will be the industry's minimum price limit. It is expected that the polysilicon futures price will fluctuate in the range of (37,000, 45,000) in the short term [63] Strategy - Unilateral: Long positions should consider taking profits [64] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [64] - Arbitrage: Gradually stop profiting from the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [64] Group 12: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The main contract 2509 rose 140 to 66,100 yuan/ton, the index position decreased by 12,117 lots, and the warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 1 to 11,203 tons [65] - Spot: The SMM - quoted price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 to 64,900 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 to 63,300 yuan/ton [65] Relevant Information - Project: On the evening of July 14th, Zangge Mining announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary's invested company, Tibet Ali Mami Cuo Mining Development Co., Ltd., received a mining license [66] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Recently, there have been many supply - side disturbance news, but it has not had a substantial impact on production. The supply elasticity of domestic lithium salts is still large. In July, the off - season is not weak, and the price is difficult to fall deeply [67] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Avoid risks in the short term and wait for the right - hand short - selling opportunity [70] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [70] - Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [70] Group 13: Industry Data - Multiple metal varieties' daily data tables are provided, including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various metals and minerals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors, including market reviews, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each product. It takes into account factors such as tariffs, supply and demand, and policy changes to evaluate the market trends and potential investment opportunities and risks [3][7][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.36% at $3342.78/ounce, London silver down 0.72% at $38.11/ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index was almost flat at 98.035, 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.426%, and the RMB/USD exchange rate rose 0.03% to 7.1723 [3]. - **Important News**: Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Russia if no Ukraine - Russia conflict agreement is reached in 50 days. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Fed officials' remarks and interest rate probability expectations were also reported [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: As the tariff negotiation deadline approaches, tariff games intensify. The Fed is in a wait - and - see mode. The market awaits US CPI data. Silver's spot supply is tight due to tax - increase expectations [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai copper 2508 contract fell 0.34% to 78020 yuan/ton, LME copper closed down 0.2% at $9643.5/ton. LME and Comex inventories increased [7]. - **Important News**: Multiple tariff - related events were reported. China's June copper imports showed mixed trends. SMM national copper inventory increased [8][9]. - **Logical Analysis**: The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st. The US' siphoning of global refined copper is nearing an end. LME inventory bottomed out. The price difference structure will converge, and the market is mainly for rigid demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Night - session alumina 2509 contract rose 37 yuan to 3145 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [12]. - **Important News**: Central Finance Commission meeting emphasized market construction. There were domestic spot transactions, changes in warehouse receipts, and production and inventory data [12][14]. - **Logical Analysis**: Alumina production is increasing, but spot circulation is limited. The supply - demand pattern will gradually shift to a surplus, but warehouse receipt demand may support the market [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to fluctuate strongly for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract fell 30 yuan/ton to 20405 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [18][21]. - **Important News**: Aluminum ingot inventory increased. There were data on photovoltaic installation, aluminum exports, and financial and trade news [21][22]. - **Trading Logic**: Tariff negotiations are ongoing. Aluminum ingot inventory may have a narrow - range change. The decline in photovoltaic component production may be mitigated [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices may be under pressure in the short - term but not overly pessimistic for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 yuan to 19800 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [28]. - **Important News**: There were data on production, cost, profit, and inventory of cast aluminum alloy [28][29]. - **Trading Logic**: Alloy ingot enterprises face raw material shortages, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy futures prices will follow aluminum prices under pressure. Consider arbitrage within a certain price difference range; wait and see for options [30]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 0.2% to $2732.5/ton, Shanghai zinc 2508 fell 0.27% to 22145 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [32]. - **Important News**: Domestic and LME zinc inventories increased [32]. - **Logical Analysis**: Zinc supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and prices may be under pressure [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell 0.98% to $2017/ton, Shanghai lead 2508 fell 0.2% to 17070 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [36]. - **Important News**: Lead inventory increased, and the average operating rate of primary lead smelters decreased [36]. - **Logical Analysis**: Recycled lead is in a loss, and the supply is hard to increase. Demand is improving marginally [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term lead prices may fluctuate at a high level. High - selling and low - buying in the range for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell 170 to $15065/ton, inventory increased. Shanghai nickel fell 1310 to 119460 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [42]. - **Important News**: A Canadian nickel company's exploration results and battery production data were reported [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market is worried about US tariffs. Refined nickel has weak supply and demand in the off - season, and prices will fluctuate weakly [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2508 contract rose 10 to 12695 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were reported [44]. - **Important News**: A stainless steel factory's high - nickel pig iron transaction and a company's production achievement were reported [48]. - **Logical Analysis**: Stainless steel demand is not optimistic, inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [48]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures and spot prices rose [50]. - **Important News**: The US launched 232 investigations on drones and polysilicon [50]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Industrial silicon production will decrease in July. Supply and demand may be balanced. Inventory has shifted, and the market is optimistic [50][52]. - **Strategy**: Short - term strength for single - side trading; stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy [53]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: Polysilicon futures rose 0.81% to 41765 yuan/ton. Spot prices declined [55]. - **Important News**: Silicon wafer and battery prices and US investigations were reported [55]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Polysilicon price increases can be passed on to downstream. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Reduce long positions [56][58]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions and participate in short - term trading. Stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy; wait and see for options [59]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 2380 to 66480 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased [61]. - **Important News**: A company obtained a mining license, and a cooperation agreement was signed [61][63]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market concerns led to price increases. Demand is not weak in the off - season. Prices may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and decline in the long - term [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Avoid risks in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities; wait and see for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [64].