Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product research report on peanuts, dated November 3, 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - PK604 closed at 7880, down 12 (-0.15%), with a trading volume of 4,077 (up 1492.58%) and an open interest of 4,605 (up 173.78%) [2] - PK510 closed at 8126, unchanged (0.00%), with a trading volume of 47 (up 161.11%) and an open interest of 490 (up 2.94%) [2] - PK601 closed at 7800, down 12 (-0.15%), with a trading volume of 69,185 (up 48.19%) and an open interest of 168,467 (down 0.22%) [2] Spot Market - In the spot market, prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7200, 7800, and 7800 respectively, with Shandong Jining and Linyi down 600 [2] - Imported Sudanese peanuts were priced at 8600, and Senegalese peanuts at 7600, both unchanged [2] - Rizeshao peanut meal was priced at 3250, unchanged; Rizhao soybean meal at 3040, up 30; peanut oil at 14580, unchanged; and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil at 8290, down 30 [2] Spread - The spread between PK01 - PK04 was - 80, unchanged; PK04 - PK10 was - 246, down 12; PK10 - PK01 was 326, up 12 [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan continued to rebound, and those in Northeast China rose. In Northeast China, the price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.3 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin; in Changtu, Liaoning, it was 4.3 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin [4] - In the Henan production area, the price of Baisha common peanuts was 3.6 - 3.75 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin; in Junan, Shandong, it was 3.9 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin [4] - Imported peanut prices were stable. The price of imported Sudanese refined peanuts was 8600 yuan/ton, Senegalese peanuts were 7600 yuan/ton, Brazilian new peanuts were 9200 yuan/ton, and Indian specification peanuts (50/60) were 8000 yuan/ton [4] - Peanut oil prices were stable. The mainstream transaction price of peanut oil mills was 7700 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills was 7920 yuan/ton [4] - Rizhao soybean meal was stronger, with the spot price at 3030 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The price difference per unit of protein between peanut meal and soybean meal was low, and peanut meal was stronger in the short term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal priced at 3210 yuan/ton [6] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Peanuts in contracts 01 and 05 are in a low - level oscillation, and short - term long positions can be considered [9] - Monthly spread: Wait and see [10] - Options: Hold the short position of pk601 - P - 7600 [11] Group 5: Related Charts - The report includes charts on Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil mill profit, peanut oil prices, peanut spot - futures basis, peanut 10 - 1 contract spread, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spread [13][19][22]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 3 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | | | | 豆粕：利多因素带动 | 盘面偏强运行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外糖价格反弹修复 | 郑糖价格短期略强 6 | | 油脂板块：短期缺乏利多驱动，油脂震荡偏弱运行 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，盘面底部震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力继续体现 | 价格延续回落 9 | | 花生：花生现货企稳反弹，花生短期底部震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：淘鸡有所增加 | 蛋价有所企稳 10 | | 苹果：新季果质量较差 | 客商采购积极 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：收购进入高峰 | 棉价震荡略偏强 12 | | 钢材：宏观影响消退，钢价冲高回落 14 | | --- | | 双焦：高位震荡 等待回调后做多的机会 14 | | 铁矿：高位偏空为主 15 | | 铁合金：库存持续攀升，继续作为空头配置 16 | | 贵金属：政策风向转变，短期承压延续调整 17 | | --- | | 铜：价格短期回踩，长期趋势不变 18 | | 氧化铝：供应端减产仍未落地 氧化铝偏 ...

股指期货数据日报 2025年10月31日 IM每日行情 IM行情概要 IM成交持仓 单位：点、手、亿元 单位：手 | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | | | 成交额 | +/- | | 持仓量 | +/- | 持仓保证金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中证1000 | 7506.67 | 0.29% | 29,975 | | 1 | % | 4,756 | | -1% | | | | | IM2511 | 7439.60 | 0.00% | 49,482 | | 4 | % | 740 | | 4 % | 69,370 | -1,735 | 124 | | IM2512 | 7368.20 | 0.02% | 164,443 | | 1 | % | 2,436 | | 2 % | 186,908 | -3,849 | 331 | | IM2603 | 7165.00 | 0.09% | 27,165 | | 1 | % | 391 | | 1 % | 7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand side of pure benzene and styrene lacks upward drivers [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Preface Summary - The supply - demand situation of pure benzene and styrene lacks upward momentum [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation - **Pure Benzene Data**: The report presents data on pure benzene prices (including domestic and foreign markets), spreads,开工 rates (petroleum benzene, hydrogenated benzene), downstream weighted开工 loads and profits, port inventories, and import volumes from 2019 - 2025. For example, in 2025, the monthly pure benzene production ranges from 157.81 to 197.61 million tons, and the monthly import volume is around 40 - 50 million tons [12][15][33]. - **Styrene Data**: It shows styrene prices, price spreads,开工 rates, production profits, port and enterprise inventories, and downstream开工 rates and profits. The styrene production in 2025 ranges from 136.85 to 163.62 million tons, and the monthly import volume varies [37][41][60]. - **Downstream Product Data**: Data on the开工 rates, production profits, and inventories of downstream products such as CPL, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are provided. For instance, the CPL开工 rate in 2025 is between 55% - 105% [21][23][27]. - **Balance Sheets**: Pure benzene and styrene balance sheets from January to December 2025 are presented, showing production, import, demand, and supply - demand differences. For example, the supply - demand difference of pure benzene in October 2025 is 0.05 million tons, and that of styrene is 2.05 million tons [33][60]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Related Data**: Data on automobile production and export growth rates, and real - estate construction, new construction, sales, and completion area cumulative year - on - year growth rates are provided. For example, the automobile production and export data show trends from 0 - 3500 units with corresponding growth rates, and the real - estate data show cumulative year - on - year growth rates from - 100% - 100% [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamentals and liquidity situation still support the bond market. The central bank's sudden restart of Treasury bond trading has set a temporary ceiling on yields and boosted market sentiment. However, considering the structural highlights in the domestic economy and the improved inflation expectations, the room for continuous decline in yields should be viewed rationally. Before the expectation of interest rate cuts rises, short - end yields may face constraints from capital prices, and factors such as the pending new regulations on bond fund redemption fees may suppress bond market sentiment. The bond market is unlikely to have a trending market, but ultra - long bonds may offer opportunities for price rebounds, and holding some long positions in bond futures for hedging purposes is also necessary [4][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In October, the sentiment in the bond market recovered. By the end of the month, the central bank's announcement of restarting Treasury bond trading further boosted market sentiment. As of the mid - day on October 31, the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL increased by 0.16%, 0.36%, 0.69%, and 2.22% respectively within the month. Driven by favorable factors, the valuation of bond futures increased. As of the close on October 30, the IRR of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL were approximately 1.9288%, 1.7475%, 1.6851%, and 1.5231% respectively [3]. 3.2 Market Logic梳理 3.2.1 Economic Data Remains Differentiated, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" Defines the Development Direction - The GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 4.8% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from the second quarter, basically in line with market expectations. The cumulative GDP growth rate in the first three quarters was 5.2% year - on - year, meaning that the economy only needs to grow by 4.5% in the fourth quarter to achieve the annual target. In September, exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and industrial added value increased by 6.5% year - on - year. However, domestic demand indicators improved limitedly. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.0% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. High - frequency data was also differentiated. The sales of new and second - hand houses were weak, but the sales of some durable goods such as passenger cars showed certain resilience. The market focused on the Fourth Plenary Session communique and the "15th Five - Year Plan" at home and the development of the new round of Sino - US trade disputes abroad [9][10][18]. 3.2.2 Price Indicators Remain Low, but Inflation Expectations Have Improved - The GDP deflator in the third quarter was - 1.07%, still in the negative range. In September, CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, mainly dragged down by food prices. PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. However, due to the high base of industrial product prices starting from October last year, the year - on - year decline of PPI may widen again. Under the combined effect of policies and market expectations, the GDP deflator may turn positive at least temporarily, which suppresses the performance of the bond market, especially long - term bonds [28][30][41]. 3.2.3 The Growth Rate of Social Financing Continues to Slow Down, and the Inflection Point of M1 Growth Rate Has Not Arrived - In September, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 300 billion yuan. Social financing increased by 3533.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan. The growth rate of M2 was 8.4% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, while the growth rate of M1 was 7.2% year - on - year, a 1.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. High - frequency data shows that credit supply in October may be mediocre, and the continuous rise of M1 growth rate is not favorable for the bond market [42][43][56]. 3.2.4 The Capital Market Is Stable and Loose, and the Central Bank Restarts Treasury Bond Trading - In October, the capital market was generally balanced and loose, but there was a seasonal tightening at the end of the month. The central bank increased reverse repurchase and MLF operations to release long - term liquidity. The central bank's governor announced the restart of Treasury bond trading in the open market, which boosted market expectations. The restart of Treasury bond trading is a part of the "moderately loose" monetary policy, reducing policy risks in the bond market. The scale and term of the central bank's bond - buying operations need attention [57][64][72]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The bond market is still supported by the current fundamentals and capital market conditions, but it is difficult to have a trending market. It is recommended to moderately participate in the game of price rebounds in ultra - long bonds and hold some long positions in bond futures for hedging. In terms of arbitrage, it is advisable to short the 30Y - 7Y term spread, short the current - next quarter inter - period spread, and pay attention to the potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities of the TS contract [74][75][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The long - term upward logic of copper remains unchanged despite the transformation of new and old driving forces. Although the supply is tight and the traditional consumption growth rate has declined, the growth of new consumption areas such as energy storage batteries, new energy vehicles, and future AI will offset the negative impact of the decline in traditional consumption [2][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Copper Market Overview 3.1.1 Market Review In October, copper prices entered an accelerated upward phase, with the lowest price on October 10 reaching $10,374 per ton for LME copper or 82,630 yuan per ton for SHFE copper, and the highest reaching the historical high pressure level of $11,094 per ton for LME copper or 88,700 yuan per ton for SHFE copper. Macroscopically, the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff statement had limited impact. Fundamentally, the tightness of copper mines intensified, and domestic production declined. Consumption was weak, and downstream acceptance of high prices was low [5][11][12]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook In terms of supply, the incremental supply of copper mines is expected to be 50,000 tons, lower than 2024. The overall supply of copper mines is more tense, and the global refined copper production is expected to increase by 950,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth of 3.53%. The consumption growth rate is expected to drop to 3.4%. In terms of price, the long - term loose monetary policy in the US is positive, and the support level is 85,000 - 86,000 yuan per ton, with a short - term pressure level of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan per ton [13][14]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation Unilateral: Adopt the idea of buying on dips, with a support level of 85,000 - 86,000 yuan per ton and a short - term pressure level of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan per ton. Arbitrage: If the export window opens, exit the positive spread temporarily and re - enter later. Options: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Sino - US Relations Eased, and the Expectation of Fed Rate Cuts Strengthened On October 10, Trump's tariff statement had limited impact, and Sino - US relations later eased. On October 29, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the probability of a December rate cut dropped. The US employment data was weak, and the CPI was relatively stable. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly, but consumer growth was weak [23]. 3.3 Copper Mine Disturbances Increased, and the Tight Supply Situation was Difficult to Alleviate 3.3.1 Sharp Drop in the Incremental Supply of Copper Concentrates In 2025, the global incremental supply of copper concentrates is expected to be about 50,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth of 0.22%. The supply - side disturbances increased, and the processing fee is likely to be less than or equal to $0 per ton. Some major mining companies reduced their production plans, while the import volume of copper concentrates in China increased [34][35][36]. 3.3.2 Decline in the Start - up of Recycling Processing Enterprises, and the Tight Supply of Scrap Copper was Temporarily Alleviated The global supply of scrap copper did not decrease, but the trade flow changed. The import volume of scrap copper in China was relatively stable, but the growth rate was lower than last year. The tax - refund policy affected the start - up of recycling copper rod enterprises. The import volume of anode copper decreased, while the import volume of scrap copper ingots increased [44][45][47]. 3.3.3 Accelerated Transmission of Raw Material Supply Shortage to the Smelting End The global refined copper production is expected to increase by 950,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth of 3.53%. Overseas smelters cut production, and domestic production also declined due to factors such as maintenance and anode plate shortage. The import of refined copper in China increased in September, but the inflow speed may slow down [50][51][53]. 3.4 Consumption Analysis 3.4.1 Obvious Decline in the Growth Rate of Traditional Consumption - **Real Estate Market**: From January to September, the sales area and completion area of new commercial housing decreased year - on - year. The consumption of electrolytic copper was still dragged down. It is estimated that the copper consumption will decrease by 123,700 tons to 1,113,700 tons [61][62]. - **Power Grid and Power Projects**: From January to September, the investment in the power grid increased by 9.9% year - on - year, and the investment in power projects increased by 0.6%. High copper prices inhibited the procurement of downstream enterprises, and the export of copper cables may decline in October [67][68]. - **Home Appliances**: The production schedule of household air - conditioners in November decreased significantly year - on - year. It is expected that the annual consumption growth rate of air - conditioners will drop to 5%, and the copper consumption of white goods will increase from 2,168,300 tons to 2,267,800 tons [78][81]. 3.4.2 Resilience of Automobile Consumption - **Domestic Automobile Consumption**: In September, domestic automobile production and sales increased significantly. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 35.2% and 34.9% respectively. The sales of new energy vehicles are expected to be driven by the policy of resuming the purchase tax in 2026 [86][88]. - **New Energy Vehicle Consumption in Europe and the US**: From January to August, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 23.46% year - on - year. In the US and Europe, new energy vehicle sales also showed growth trends. It is estimated that the global new energy vehicle copper consumption will increase from 1,220,800 tons in 2024 to 1,401,100 tons in 2025 [95][96]. 3.4.3 Unexpected Growth of Wind and Solar Power Generation - **Photovoltaic Installation**: From January to September, China's new photovoltaic installation capacity increased by 49.34% year - on - year. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association raised the annual new installation capacity forecast. It is estimated that the global new photovoltaic installation capacity will reach 630GW in 2025 [104][108]. - **Wind Power Installation**: From January to September, China's new wind power installation capacity increased by 56.16% year - on - year. It is predicted that China's new wind power installation will reach 105 - 115GW in 2025, and the global new wind power installation capacity will increase to 138GW [119]. 3.4.4 Explosive Growth of Lithium - Ion Copper Foil In 2024, the global copper foil production capacity was 2,544,000 tons. From January to September 2025, China's lithium - ion copper foil production was 624,300 tons, with a year - on - year growth of 38%. If calculated according to a 35% consumption growth rate, the annual production will reach 853,800 tons, driving domestic consumption by 1.38% [126]. 3.4.5 Consumption Summary It is expected that the global consumption growth rate will drop to 3.4%. Overseas demand remains stable, while domestic demand weakens marginally. Processing enterprises and downstream raw material inventories are low, and there will be restocking demand if prices decline [131]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet In 2025, the growth of copper mines is expected to be 50,000 tons, and the refined copper production will increase by 950,000 tons. The consumption growth rate will drop to 3.4%. The supply gap of copper concentrates is expected to expand to 680,000 tons, and the refined copper is expected to have a surplus of 376,000 tons, mainly in the US. Domestically, the consumption growth rate is expected to decline from October to December [135][136].

能化板块研发报告 2025 年 10 月 31 日 预期落地阶段，价格震荡走弱 第一部分 前言概要 【纯碱】 市场表现上，市场对政策层面引导行业"反内卷"的敏感度边际下降，市场更多 观察落地力度，品种走势分化。海外中美和谈市场风偏显著下降。多空双方就弱现实 和强预期博弈加剧。一方面，政策导向、催生了对商品市场的乐观预期。另一方面， 现货端基本面改善幅度有限，需求刚需旺季表现显乏力，而中游库存较大是主要担 忧。因此每个仓单强制注销月临近都有可能使得价格由预期转向现实交易转变，需要 重点关注 11 月交割月仓单情况，以及现货可能对市场的冲击。 供应：10 月纯碱企业检修，月度产量约 334.2 万吨，同比增加 4.1%。1-10 月 全国纯碱产量约 3159.2 万吨，同比增加 67 万吨，增幅为 2.2%。供应高位运行，产 量压力在库存上逐步显现。需求：浮法日产量 16 万吨，运行稳定。光伏玻璃日产量 8.87 万吨，对比上月下降 100 吨。10 月节后归来，海外导致的避险情绪增加，以及 上游阶段累库。纯碱价格下跌，负反馈加剧。10 月期盘面货源阶段出货，期现商月 度出货约 16w 吨左右（未计算节假日期间） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, nickel prices continued to fluctuate widely, and the range has remained intact for three months. The macro - atmosphere in the fourth quarter is expected to be strong, but there is no direct boost to the downstream demand for nickel. The supply of pure nickel remains high, and the MHP price provides cost support. The supply - demand of refined nickel is loose, and it is expected to continue the wide - range fluctuation trend in the third quarter [3][4][9]. - The global refined nickel inventory is increasing, and the deliverable products are abundant. The downstream consumption of refined nickel has little expansion, and the consumption growth rate is limited [12][28]. - The production of stainless steel remains at a high level, which supports the demand for primary nickel. However, the price of stainless steel is inverted to the cost, and the production schedule may be more conservative in November. The demand for stainless steel is lackluster, showing the characteristics of "not prosperous in the peak season and not weak in the off - season" [35][49][60]. - The strong demand for ternary materials has led to a tight supply - demand of nickel sulfate, and the price has risen. The new energy vehicle market shows structural growth, with both domestic and overseas markets having certain characteristics [75][90][102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Trend**: In October, nickel prices continued to fluctuate widely, and the range has remained intact for three months. Policy factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and Sino - US economic and trade consultations have increased market risk appetite, but there is no direct boost to the downstream demand for nickel [3][9]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: From September to October, there was no peak - season feature, and the off - season consumption was expected to be flat. The supply of pure nickel remained high, competing with nickel sulfate for MHP raw materials. The MHP price was firm, providing cost support for pure nickel. The supply - demand of pure nickel changed little, and the inventory increased slowly [3][9]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Refined Nickel Inventory and Supply - **Inventory**: As of October 24, the global visible inventory reached 300,000 tons, with LME inventory at 250,000 tons (an increase of 21,000 tons compared with the end of last month and 89,000 tons compared with the beginning of the year), and SMM's six - region social inventory at 49,000 tons (an increase of 7,900 tons compared with the end of last month and 7,600 tons compared with the beginning of the year) [12]. - **Supply**: The "PTENICO" brand nickel plate applied for LME delivery, and the total annual production capacity of Chinese - funded electrowon nickel brands applied for registration on the LME reached 221,600 tons. From January to September, LME nickel warrants increased by 74,000 tons [16]. SMM statistics show that China's refined nickel production from January to September increased by 24% year - on - year to 300,000 tons. It is expected that the domestic refined nickel output in October will remain at a high level of 36,300 tons, a slight decrease of 200 tons month - on - month [25]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel and Nickel Demand - **Raw Material Price and Supply**: In October, the price of Indonesian nickel ore was relatively stable. The production of Indonesian nickel ore is difficult to increase significantly, and the price is also difficult to fall sharply. The Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore port inventory has decreased. The nickel - iron plants and mines are in a deep game [35]. - **Production and Demand**: From January to September, the combined nickel - iron production of China and Indonesia was 1.598 million nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 21%. The production of stainless steel is expected to be more conservative in November due to cost inversion. The demand for stainless steel lacks highlights, and the social inventory has increased after the National Day [41][49][60]. 3.2.3 Ternary Demand and Nickel Sulfate Price - **Nickel Sulfate Price**: In the third quarter, the orders for ternary materials were unexpectedly strong, and the supply - demand of nickel sulfate was tight. The MHP price was firm, providing cost support for electrowon nickel and nickel sulfate [75]. - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: In the domestic market, from January to September, the sales of new energy vehicles were 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. The sales of new energy heavy - duty trucks increased by 183% year - on - year to 138,700 vehicles. In the overseas market, from January to August 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe increased by 27.4% year - on - year to 234,700 vehicles, and in the US by 8.1% year - on - year to 106,300 vehicles [90][102]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Future Outlook**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates once in December, Sino - US tariffs may be lowered, and the geopolitical situation will ease. The macro - atmosphere in the fourth quarter is strong. The downstream consumption of nickel is expected to be flat. The supply of refined nickel is loose, and it is expected to continue the wide - range fluctuation trend in November [4][113]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuation [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina prices are under pressure due to supply - demand surplus, with potential production cuts in November. If production cuts occur, prices may rebound; otherwise, they will remain under pressure. Overall, the price trend is to sell on rebounds next year [3][99] - The shortage of global electrolytic aluminum is more prominent overseas. Macro - and micro - factors will drive the upward trend of aluminum prices to continue. In November, domestic demand may support prices, and the import loss of aluminum ingots is expected to narrow [4][103] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Preface Summary - **Alumina**: Due to supply - demand surplus, prices are falling. The November spot long - term settlement price may approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity, leading to potential production cuts. If production cuts reduce the surplus, prices may rebound to around 3000 yuan/ton; otherwise, they will be under pressure. Next year, new projects will be put into production, so the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds [3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The global shortage is mainly overseas. With overseas production cuts and improving domestic demand, aluminum prices are expected to rise. The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (alumina oscillating between 2800 - 3000 yuan, aluminum oscillating strongly between 21000 - 21800 yuan), arbitrage (long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum), and option trading (wait - and - see) [4] 2. Alumina Low - price Pressure on Cash Cost and November Supply - side Production Cut Expectations - **Raw Material End**: Domestic bauxite supply is tight, with stable prices but few transactions. Imported bauxite prices are theoretically under pressure, but spot transactions are scarce. The price of Guinea bauxite is around 72 - 73 dollars/dry ton. In September 2025, China imported 1588 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 37.5% [7][10][11] - **Alumina Price and Production**: As of late October, the national alumina production capacity was 11462 million tons, and the operating capacity was 9765 million tons. In October, the domestic alumina supply - demand surplus was 33 million tons (considering downstream inventory) or 17 million tons (based on social inventory). The average full cost of alumina in September was 2863 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 179 yuan/ton. In November, pay attention to production cuts due to high - cost capacity approaching cash cost and the impact of heavy - pollution weather [22][23][36] - **Import and Export**: In September 2025, China exported 24.6 million tons of alumina (a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 82.3%) and imported 6 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 36.4% and a year - on - year increase of 61.7%). The net export was 18.6 million tons [31] 3. Macro - and Micro - Factors Driving the Rise of Aluminum Prices - **Macro Factors**: In October, the overseas macro - market sentiment was first depressed and then improved. The expected further reaching of tariff agreements between the US and other countries and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation will support LME aluminum prices, but the US government shutdown may bring uncertainty [41][46] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - side Changes**: - **Overseas**: There are both increases and decreases in overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity. Some projects are in the process of being put into production, while some factories have reduced production due to accidents or power - supply issues. For example, the Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant reduced production by about 21 million tons, and the Mozambique plant may reduce production by 37 million tons in March 2026 [51][52] - **Domestic**: As of late October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4523.2 million tons, and the operating capacity was 4441.4 million tons. The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and capacity replacement is ongoing. In September, the average full cost of electrolytic aluminum was 15977 yuan/ton. In September, the import of aluminum ingots was 24.68 million tons, and the export was 2.9 million tons [61][62][63] - **Inventory and Consumption**: - **Domestic**: At the end of October, the total social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods was 91.13 million tons. It is expected that the inventory will decline in November - December, and low inventory will support prices. The export profit of aluminum products is increasing, and consumption is expected to be resilient [66] - **Overseas**: The LME inventory is stable, and the spot is mostly at a premium. The global shortage of aluminum is more prominent overseas, and low inventory supports LME aluminum prices [69] - **Domestic Terminal Consumption**: - **New Energy Demand**: The production of photovoltaic modules is still relatively low year - on - year, with limited impact on aluminum demand. The use of aluminum in transportation is expected to increase year - on - year, and the use of aluminum in the power sector is also growing. The State Grid's investment in 2025 will exceed 650 billion yuan, and the sample capacity of domestic aluminum rods has increased [73][76][79] - **Traditional Industries**: The demand for aluminum in the real - estate industry is still weak, and the production of household appliances in November is expected to decline year - on - year. In September, the export of aluminum products was 87.01 million tons, and the impact of tariffs on international trade is gradually weakening [81][91][94] 4. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Alumina**: Low prices are pressuring high - cost capacity. In November, there are expectations of production cuts. Next year, new projects will be put into production, so the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds. The cost in November can refer to that in September - October [99] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Macro - and micro - factors will drive the rise of aluminum prices. Overseas supply shortages will support prices, and domestic demand is resilient. In November, the import loss of aluminum ingots is expected to narrow, and the export of aluminum products is expected to increase [103]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The terminal demand continues to decline, and the iron ore price should be treated bearishly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Market Data Review - The report presents multiple charts including the 62% Platts iron ore price, PB powder price, price spreads between different iron ore products, steel mill cash profit and price spreads of high - medium - low grade ores, and basis and spreads of different contracts [9][11][14]. 3.2 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - Import volume charts show the import quantities of iron ore from different countries and regions such as Australia, Brazil, and India, as well as the global shipping volume of major iron ore producers like VALE, Rio Tinto, BHP, and FMG [23][29]. - A table shows the incremental global seaborne iron ore supply (shipment basis) from 2020 to 2026E. Some companies are expected to increase their supply, while others may see a decrease. For example, FMG's supply is expected to increase by 5 million tons in 2025 compared to 2024, while India's supply is expected to decrease by 6 million tons [42]. - Domestic refined powder production charts display the production in different regions of China, including North China, Northeast China, and East China [47][49]. Demand - Charts related to downstream demand include real estate new construction area, infrastructure investment growth rate (excluding electricity), domestic manufacturing inventory cycle, manufacturing investment sub - items, 247 steel mill hot metal production, domestic steel demand, overseas iron ore consumption, and global iron ore consumption [59][63][73]. - Inventory charts show the total inventory of imported iron ore at ports, trade ore, and the total iron element inventory in the entire industrial chain [83][85]. 3.3 Iron Ore Market Outlook No specific content about the outlook is provided in the text other than the overall bearish view on iron ore prices due to declining terminal demand.