1. Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: March 17, 2026 [2] 2. IM Contract Analysis 2.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 8019.86, down 2.33%; the total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 235,540 lots, an increase of 16,761 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 382,072 lots, an increase of 508 lots from the previous day [4][5]. - The main contract of IM (IM2603) fell 1.96% to close at 8014 points [4]. 2.2 Basis and Premium/Discount - The main contract of IM was at a discount of 5.86 points, up 18.49 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -6.67% [5]. - The dividend impacts of the four IM contracts were 0 points, 0.19 points, 38.82 points, and 60.28 points respectively [5]. 2.3 Positions of Major Seats - In IM2603, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), with a trading volume of 31,805 lots and an increase of 4,288 lots from the previous day [16]. - The top five seats in terms of long positions were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), with a long position of 20,265 lots and a decrease of 512 lots from the previous day [16]. - The top five seats in terms of short positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), with a short position of 30,623 lots and an increase of 1,529 lots from the previous day [16]. 3. IF Contract Analysis 3.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4637.44, down 0.73%; the total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 146,045 lots, an increase of 21,683 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 280,450 lots, an increase of 6,776 lots from the previous day [21][22]. - The main contract of IF (IF2603) fell 0.66% to close at 4628.8 points [21]. 3.2 Basis and Premium/Discount - The main contract of IF was at a discount of 8.64 points, up 0.12 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -17.03% [22]. - The dividend impacts of the four IF contracts were 0 points, 0.48 points, 30.15 points, and 84.14 points respectively [22]. 3.3 Positions of Major Seats - In IF2603, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), with a trading volume of 15,202 lots and an increase of 3,469 lots from the previous day [36]. - The top five seats in terms of long positions were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), with a long position of 23,177 lots and an increase of 1,223 lots from the previous day [36]. - The top five seats in terms of short positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), with a short position of 19,334 lots and an increase of 1,619 lots from the previous day [36]. 4. IC Contract Analysis 4.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of CSI 500 was 8016.03, down 2.07%; the total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 170,339 lots, an increase of 560 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 294,227 lots, a decrease of 8,120 lots from the previous day [41][42]. - The main contract of IC (IC2603) fell 2.1% to close at 8000 points [41]. 4.2 Basis and Premium/Discount - The main contract of IC was at a discount of 16.03 points, down 9.28 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -18.28% [42]. - The dividend impacts of the four IC contracts were 0 points, 7.12 points, 59.41 points, and 96.03 points respectively [42]. 4.3 Positions of Major Seats - In IC2603, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), with a trading volume of 31,439 lots and a decrease of 3,601 lots from the previous day [58]. - The top five seats in terms of long positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), with a long position of 11,667 lots and a decrease of 2,737 lots from the previous day [58]. - The top five seats in terms of short positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), with a short position of 12,459 lots and a decrease of 2,680 lots from the previous day [58]. 5. IH Contract Analysis 5.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of SSE 50 was 2963.58, up 0.32%; the total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 69,141 lots, an increase of 8,837 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 106,613 lots, a decrease of 3,547 lots from the previous day [62]. - The main contract of IH (IH2603) rose 0.18% to close at 2962 points [62]. 5.2 Basis and Premium/Discount - The main contract of IH was at a discount of 1.58 points, up 0.51 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -4.86% [63]. - The dividend impacts of the four IH contracts were 0 points, 0 points, 18.25 points, and 63.28 points respectively [63]. 5.3 Positions of Major Seats - In IH2603, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), with a trading volume of 6,435 lots and an increase of 1,402 lots from the previous day [77]. - The top five seats in terms of long positions were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), with a long position of 4,122 lots and an increase of 44 lots from the previous day [77]. - The top five seats in terms of short positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), with a short position of 7,067 lots and an increase of 250 lots from the previous day [77].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend today, but the volatility of steel prices further decreased. Short - term steel prices lack driving forces, with overall weak spot trading, less spot - futures purchases, and increasing market wait - and - see sentiment [5]. - Last week, the output of the five major steel products increased slightly. Among them, rebar output continued to increase while hot - rolled coil output decreased. However, as production suspensions and overhauls end this week, pig iron production is expected to resume [5]. - Recently, downstream demand has seasonally recovered, showing good performance, but inventories are still accumulating rapidly. Rebar inventory is accumulating faster, while hot - rolled coil inventory has started to decline [5]. - The capital availability of downstream construction sites across the country has improved recently, but the resumption of work and capital conditions are still weaker than in previous years [5]. - Recently, export orders have been performing well, leading to an improvement in the supply - demand situation of hot - rolled coils, but the overall inventory level is still high, and there is pressure on supply and demand [5]. - Overseas geopolitical frictions have increased recently, energy prices and shipping freight rates have continued to rise, and there are rumors of import disruptions for iron ore. If the frictions intensify in the future, it may drive up the raw material costs of steel [5]. - Short - term steel prices will maintain a volatile market with support at the bottom. In the future, attention should be paid to pig iron production, downstream demand performance, and overseas geopolitical frictions [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3220 yuan (unchanged), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3170 yuan (+10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3290 yuan (+10 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3220 yuan (unchanged) [4]. Market Judgments Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile trend [6]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices, and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [6]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Important Information - From January to February 2026, China's pig iron output was 137.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; crude steel output was 160.34 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; and steel output was 221.19 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [8]. - On March 12, 2026, the UK Trade Remedies Authority issued an announcement, making a positive final anti - dumping ruling on tin - plated sheets originating from China. The dumping margin for Shougang Group is 27.85%, the injury margin is 62.39%, and the anti - dumping duty is 27.85%. The dumping margin for other exporters is 49.98%, the injury margin is 88.00%, and the anti - dumping duty is 49.98%. It is recommended to impose an anti - dumping duty on Chinese products involved for a period of 5 years [8][9]. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts (01, 05, 10 contracts in Shanghai area), the price differences between different contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 10, 10 - 01), the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the disk profit of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts, the cash profit of different steel products (such as East China rebar, Tianjin hot - rolled coil, etc.), the cash profit of electric furnaces (at flat and valley electricity prices), the cash profit of Tangshan billets, the price difference between East China pig iron and scrap steel, the price difference between cold and hot rolled products in Shanghai, and the cost of East China electric furnaces [14][16][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - The global supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to remain strongly volatile at the bottom. The spot price of North China corn has limited upside, while the price in Northeast China is stable. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. With the increase in wheat auctions in March, the upside of Northeast corn spot price is limited, and the May corn contract is expected to remain in high - level volatility [4][6][8]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the spot price of Shandong corn is weak. The spot price of starch in Northeast China is strong. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory. The by - product price is relatively strong. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The upside of the May starch contract is limited, and it is expected to be in high - level volatility in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures盘面**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2366 with a rise of 1 and a gain of 0.04%, C2605 closed at 2386 with a rise of 7 and a gain of 0.29%, C2509 closed at 2405 with a rise of 1 and a gain of 0.04%. For starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2709 with a rise of 3 and a gain of 0.11%, CS2605 closed at 2730 with a fall of 13 and a decline of 0.48%, CS2509 closed at 2740 with a fall of 5 and a decline of 0.18% [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port were 2230, 2260, 2520, 2494, 2400, 2510, and 2530 respectively. Starch spot prices in Longfeng, COFCO, Yihai (Heilongjiang), Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade were 2850, 2850, 2850, 3070, 3030, 3080, and 3060 respectively [2]. - **Price Spread**: For corn inter - period spreads, C01 - C05 was - 20 with a fall of 6, C05 - C09 was - 19 with a rise of 6, C09 - C01 was 39 with no change. For starch inter - period spreads, CS01 - CS05 was - 21 with a rise of 16, CS05 - CS09 was - 10 with a fall of 8, CS09 - CS01 was 31 with a fall of 8. For cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 was 335 with a fall of 6, CS01 - C01 was 343 with a rise of 2, CS05 - C05 was 344 with a fall of 20 [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: Crude oil is at a high level, US corn has declined, and the global corn supply pressure has weakened. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The northern port closing price is stable, and the Northeast corn spot price is stable. The price of North China corn has started to fall. The May corn contract is affected by auctions and shows narrow - range volatility. It is expected to be volatile in the short term [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the Shandong corn spot price is weak. The Northeast starch spot price is strong. The corn starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory. The by - product price is relatively strong. The May starch contract follows the corn and shows narrow - range volatility. The upside of the starch spot price is limited, and it is expected to be in high - level volatility in the short term [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The May US corn has support at 450 cents per bushel. Try to go long on the May corn contract at low prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see for the spread between the May corn and starch contracts [9]. 3.4 Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [11]. 3.5 Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of North Port corn closing price, May corn contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, May corn starch contract basis, and May corn starch - corn contract spread [13][14][18]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The peanut spot price is expected to remain relatively stable in the short - term due to low supply and weak downstream demand, while the peanut futures are in low - level oscillation, and the 05 contract is in high - level oscillation [3][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. First Part - Data - **Futures Disk**: PK604 closed at 8122 with a decline of 6 (-0.07%), trading volume of 2,254 (-60.89%), and open interest of 10,212 (-5.56%); PK610 closed at 8380, up 16 (0.19%), trading volume 2,414 (-60.12%), open interest 15,529 (3.55%); PK601 closed at 8376, down 24 (-0.29%), trading volume 151 (-10.12%), open interest 510 (2.82%) [1] - **Spot and Basis**: Spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7400, 8000, and 8000 respectively, with no change; Rizhao peanut meal was 3350 (no change), Rizhao soybean meal was 3290 (-10); peanut oil was 14300 (no change), and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8700 (-110). Import prices of Sudanese peanuts were 8600 (no change) [1] - **Spreads**: PK01 - PK04 spread was 254 (-18), PK04 - PK10 was - 258 (-22), PK10 - PK01 was 4 (40) [1] 2. Second Part - Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. Imported peanut prices were also stable. Some peanut oil mills' purchase prices were stable, with mainstream transaction prices at 7200 - 7900 yuan/ton. Soybean oil prices rose, while peanut oil prices were stable. Rizhao soybean meal spot prices fell, and peanut meal was relatively strong in the short - term [3][4] 3. Third Part - Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: Go short - term long on the 05 peanut contract on light - position pullbacks [7] - **Calendar Spread**: Stay on the sidelines [8] - **Options**: Sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option on dips [9] 4. Fourth Part - Relevant Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, peanut oil price, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, and the spreads between peanut 4 - 10 and 1 - 4 contracts [11][16][18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 17, ferrous alloy futures prices fluctuated strongly. The silicon iron (SF) main contract closed at 5928, up 0.95%, with an increase of 8393 in positions; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 6240, up 1.27%, with a decrease of 646 in positions [5]. - For silicon iron, on the 17th, the spot price was stable with a slight increase, and the spot price in some regions rose by 200 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase in the future as the recent sharp price increase has led to profit recovery. The demand for raw materials is expected to be driven as steel production and apparent demand are steadily recovering, and northern steel mills are accelerating production resumption after the Two Sessions. The electricity price is strong, and the increase in energy costs is being transmitted to downstream industries. Silicon iron is still in a positive feedback loop of demand and cost, and the remaining long positions should be held [5]. - For manganese silicon, on the 17th, the manganese ore spot price was stable with a slight increase, and the spot price of manganese silicon was also stable with a slight increase, with the spot price in some regions rising by 10 - 100 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to continue to increase as the price increase has led to profit recovery. The demand for raw materials still has room for growth as steel production and apparent demand are steadily recovering, and the inflection point of steel inventory is expected to appear soon. The sharp increase in crude oil has led to an increase in shipping costs, and there are expected disturbances in manganese ore mining and transportation due to the reduction in energy supply. The short - term market is still in a positive feedback loop, and the remaining long positions should be held [5]. - For trading strategies, due to the transmission of rising energy costs, the market is still in a positive feedback loop in the short term, and the remaining long positions should be held; for arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [6]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5928, with a daily change of 56 and a weekly change of 52. The trading volume was 121,759, with a daily change of 2874, and the open interest was 172,137, with a daily change of 8393. The closing price of the SM main contract was 6240, with a daily change of 78 and a weekly change of 152. The trading volume was 239,710, with a daily change of 88,137, and the open interest was 364,105, with a daily change of - 646 [3]. - **Spot Market**: For silicon iron, the spot price of 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5650, with no daily change and a weekly change of 50; in Ningxia, it was 5600, with no daily change and a weekly change of - 30; in Qinghai, it was 5580, with no daily change and a weekly change of - 70; in Jiangsu, it was 6050, with a daily change of 200 and a weekly change of 200; in Tianjin, it was 6050, with no daily change and a weekly change of - 200. For manganese silicon, the spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5930, with no daily change and a weekly change of 80; in Ningxia, it was 5910, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of 110; in Guangxi, it was 6050, with no daily change and a weekly change of 50; in Jiangsu, it was 6100, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 100; in Tianjin, it was 6000, with a daily change of 50 and a weekly change of 50 [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: For silicon iron, the basis of Inner Mongolia - main contract was - 278, with a daily change of - 56 and a weekly change of - 2; the basis of Ningxia - main contract was - 328, with a daily change of - 56 and a weekly change of - 82; the basis of Qinghai - main contract was - 348, with a daily change of - 56 and a weekly change of - 122; the spread between Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia was 400, with a daily change of 200 and a weekly change of 150; the SF - SM spread was - 312, with a daily change of - 22 and a weekly change of - 100. For manganese silicon, the basis of Inner Mongolia - main contract was - 310, with a daily change of - 78 and a weekly change of - 72; the basis of Ningxia - main contract was - 330, with a daily change of - 68 and a weekly change of - 42; the basis of Guangxi - main contract was - 190, with a daily change of - 78 and a weekly change of - 102; the spread between Guangxi and Inner Mongolia was 120, with no daily change and a weekly change of - 30 [3]. - **Raw Materials**: For manganese ore in Tianjin, the price of Australian lump ore was 43.8, with a daily change of 0.3 and a weekly change of 0.6; the price of South African semi - carbonate ore was 39.8, with a daily change of 0.3 and a weekly change of 0.3; the price of Gabon lump ore was 44.5, with no daily change and a weekly change of 0.3. For blue charcoal small materials, the price in Shaanxi was 705, with no daily change and no weekly change; in Ningxia, it was 805, with no daily change and no weekly change; in Inner Mongolia, it was 695, with no daily change and no weekly change [3]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategies**: Hold the remaining long positions due to the positive feedback of rising energy costs; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Important Information**: Iran attacked a large - scale natural gas field in the UAE, causing a fire, which increased the intensity of attacks on key energy facilities. In February 2026, South Korea's imports of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% were 13,638.7 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.98% [7]. Relevant Attachments - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon Main Contract Trends**: There are figures showing the trends of silicon iron and manganese silicon main contracts and the spread between SF and SM [8][9]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon Inter - monthly Spreads**: There are figures showing the inter - monthly spreads of silicon iron and manganese silicon, including data for today, yesterday, last week, and last month [10][11]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon Basis**: There are figures showing the basis of silicon iron and manganese silicon (main contract - Inner Mongolia) [14]. - **Silicon Manganese Spot Price**: There are figures showing the spot price of silicon manganese and the spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon manganese [14]. - **Ferrous Alloy Electricity Price**: There are figures showing the electricity price of ferrous alloys in different regions, including data for today, yesterday, last week, last month, and last year [13][15]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon Cost and Profit**: There are figures and tables showing the production cost and profit of silicon iron and manganese silicon in different regions [16][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping and carbon emissions, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors like geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand dynamics, and policy changes to assess the market trends and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market performance: The stock index showed a bottom - up trend on Monday. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index fell 0.09%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.05%, and trading volume was 2.34 trillion yuan. Futures prices fluctuated with the spot market, and the discounts of each variety narrowed slightly [20]. - Core logic: A - shares showed resilience. The market maintained a relative strength of the index through sector rotation and high - low switching. Before the situation becomes clear, the stock index will remain volatile [21]. - Trading strategy: Adopt grid operation for single - side trading, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM\IC long 2609 and short ETF, and use the double - buy strategy for options [21]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: On Monday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.43%, 0.11%, 0.08%, and 0.04% respectively [23]. - Core logic: Recently announced macro - economic data exceeded expectations, and the central bank's medium - and long - term liquidity injection has decreased. However, low - level and narrow - range fluctuations in capital prices, general profit - making effects in the equity market, and relatively weak domestic demand still support the bond market [23]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, short positions should be closed in batches on dips. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [25]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Market performance: CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices declined. Domestic soybean inventory decreased, while soybean meal inventory also decreased [27]. - Core logic: With the lack of further positive news in US soybean exports, the market returned to the fundamental logic, and the soybean meal price was under pressure [28]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, there may be a downward pressure on meal prices. For arbitrage, narrow the MRM09 spread. For options, use the seagull put option [28]. Sugar - Market performance: International sugar prices fell significantly, while domestic sugar prices declined slightly [29]. - Core logic: International sugar prices are expected to remain volatile and strong due to factors such as high international oil prices and reduced sugar production expectations in major producing countries. Domestic sugar prices may start rising earlier but are expected to move relatively smoothly [31][32]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, international and domestic sugar prices are expected to be slightly strong. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell put options [32]. Oilseeds and Oils - Market performance: Overnight, CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices declined. Domestic palm oil inventory increased [33][34]. - Core logic: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are the focus. Crude oil prices fell, and oils followed the downward trend. The supply of domestic oils is relatively abundant [34]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, oils may be volatile at high levels. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [35]. Black Metals Steel - Market performance: The black metal sector maintained a volatile and strong trend at night. Steel mills continued to reduce production, and the inventory of five major steel products continued to accumulate [55]. - Core logic: Overseas geopolitical frictions have increased, and energy prices and shipping freight rates have continued to rise, which may drive up the cost of steel raw materials. In the short term, steel prices will be volatile due to overseas and raw material factors [55]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, maintain a volatile trend. For arbitrage, short the hot - rolled coal ratio and continue to hold short positions in the hot - rolled rebar spread. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [56]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market performance: The prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated greatly, mainly following the changes in oil, gas, and chemicals [58]. - Core logic: The spot market sentiment of coking coal has improved, and prices have shown strength. In the short term, coking coal prices will follow the trend of oil and gas and be volatile [59]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, it will be volatile and strong, and cautious investors can partially close long positions. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [59]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Market performance: London gold fell 0.25%, and London silver rose 0.2%. The US dollar index fell, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined slightly [65]. - Core logic: The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues, and the market is worried about future inflation. Gold and silver prices will be volatile in the short term [66]. - Trading strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can participate with a slightly short - biased and volatile trading idea. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [67]. Copper - Market performance: The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 0.58%, and the LME and COMEX inventories decreased [72]. - Core logic: The US - Iran conflict continues, and there is still great uncertainty in the market. High inventory restricts the upward momentum of copper prices in the short term, but the substitution of refined copper rods for recycled copper rods is prominent [72]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, it will be volatile in the short term, and beware of liquidity risks. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [73]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions Container Shipping - Market performance: The SCFIS and SCFI European routes showed an upward trend [99]. - Core logic: Some shipping companies plan to levy emergency bunker adjustment factors, and the supply and demand of the container shipping market are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts and the off - season [100]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [101]. Dry Bulk Freight Rates - Market performance: The BDI, BCI, BPI, and BSI indices showed different trends [102]. - Core logic: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues, and the high oil price puts pressure on shipowners. The performance of different ship - type markets is different [104]. - Trading strategy: No specific trading strategy provided in the text. Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - Market performance: WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices declined [113]. - Core logic: The conflict between the US and Iran has led to shipping disruptions and an increase in supply losses. The international oil price will be volatile at a high level [113]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, be bullish at a high level. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [114]. Asphalt - Market performance: The night - session prices of asphalt futures rose, and the spot prices in various regions increased [115]. - Core logic: The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to an increase in crude oil prices and concerns about raw materials. The supply of asphalt is expected to decrease, but the downstream demand recovery is slow [116]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, it will be strong, but do not chase the high price. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [116].

甲醇日报 2026 年 3 月 16 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 研究所 能源化工研发报告 1 / 4 研究员：张孟超 1、期货市场：期货盘面上行，最终报收 2837（+32/+1.14%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 2220 元/吨，北线报价 2140 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2260 元/吨，榆林地区报价 2170 元/吨，山西地区报价 2300 元/吨，河南地区报价 2460 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2500 元/吨，鲁北报价 2500 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2370 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2480 元/吨，云贵报价 2250 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2790 元/吨，宁波报价 2800 元/吨，广州报价 2800 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期(20260307-2026313）国际甲醇（除中国）产量为 688009 吨，较上周减少 72900 吨，装置产能利用率为 47.16%，环比降 5.00%。周期内部分主要装置有传闻变动，但因 本网尚未确认或尚在重启，因此暂时未给与产出产量。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 300-350 元/吨附近，甲醇开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that the guiding price suppressed the spot market, which remained stable. This week's view is that due to policy pressure, urea will mainly fluctuate. The ex - factory prices in mainstream regions have been firm since the weekend, with stable market sentiment and average trading volume. Urea enterprises have received few orders. In Shandong, the ex - factory price is expected to remain firm; in Henan, although the market sentiment has cooled and the order - receiving volume has declined, the ex - factory price is also expected to be firm. In the areas around the delivery zone, the ex - factory price is expected to remain stable. The daily output of urea has increased to around 223,000 tons, and the supply has reached a new high. The international market price is firm, and India has tendered for 150 million tons again, with an expected price of no less than $500 per ton. However, there are no new quotas in China, so the overall impact is limited. The operating rates of compound fertilizer plants in the Central Plains and Northeast regions have gradually increased, but they mainly make rigid - demand purchases. After a significant inventory build - up during the Spring Festival, urea enterprises' inventories have started to decline slightly this week. With the continuous rise in prices and approaching demand, downstream buyers have started to purchase. Under current policy pressure, the upside of the spot price is limited, and the futures are expected to fluctuate strongly following the movement of crude oil. Relevant departments have issued consecutive documents to suppress the urea price. The trading strategy is to go short on a single - side basis without chasing the short position, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Overview**: The ex - factory prices in different regions show different trends. The supply of urea has reached a new high, the international market is active but has limited impact on China. The demand from compound fertilizer plants is mainly for rigid needs. Urea inventories have started to decline. Under policy pressure, the spot price has limited upside, and the futures are expected to fluctuate strongly. The trading strategy is to go short on a single - side basis without chasing the short position, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [5]. - **Core Data Changes** - **Supply**: In the 10th week of 2026 (20260305 - 0311), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 97.43%, a 0.49% week - on - week decrease; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 78.28%, a 1.68% week - on - week increase. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate of urea was 95.37%, a 4.56% week - on - week decrease [6]. - **Demand**: In the 11th week of 2026 (20260306 - 0312), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 53.35%, a 3.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer in the same period was 45.56%, an 8.54 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. As of March 13, 2026, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,640 tons, a 16.33% week - on - week decrease. The arrival volume of urea in the Northeast this week (20260306 - 20260313) was 90,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week. As of March 11, 2026, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 8.06 days, a 4.54% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Inventory**: As of March 11, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,600 tons, a 12.79% week - on - week decrease. As of March 12, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 189,000 tons, a 0.53% week - on - week decrease [6]. - **Valuation**: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was stable, the price of Yulin pulverized coal was weak, the urea spot price was firm, and the urea production profit was stable. The fixed - bed production profit was 150 yuan/ton, the water - coal - slurry production profit was 240 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production profit was 460 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, the basis was near par, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 25 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Other Data Tracking - Other sections such as "Mainstream Manufacturer Ex - factory Price", "Basis", "Regional Spread", etc., only list the titles, and no specific content is provided for summary.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing Middle - East war has led to a significant tightening of the global refinery raw material supply as the Strait of Hormuz remains unnavigable. Many foreign chlor - alkali plants have reduced their loads, and some have shut down due to raw material shortages. This has led to a substantial reduction in international PVC supply, which is beneficial for China's PVC exports. Meanwhile, China's ethylene imports are also restricted, and there is an expectation of a reduction in domestic ethylene - based PVC production. Against this backdrop, PVC futures prices have been significantly pushed up. Although calcium carbide - based PVC accounts for 72.6% of the total production capacity, which may limit the price increase of PVC compared to crude - oil - based chemicals, the overall trend of PVC remains strong [3]. - Currently, the domestic PVC market shows a differentiated situation. The expected reduction in international ethylene supply has pushed up the price of ethylene - based PVC, and it is likely to continue rising. The export demand for calcium carbide - based PVC is promising due to the expected reduction in ethylene - based PVC production in Asia, and its price is rising passively. In the short term, the domestic market is in a game between sufficient calcium carbide - based supply and reduced ethylene - based production, which is beneficial for caustic soda. In the long term, there is a risk of supply recovery when the situation eases [3]. - The trading strategy is to go long at low prices but not to chase high prices for single - side trading, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - The Middle - East war has led to a reduction in global and domestic PVC supply, pushing up PVC futures prices. The trading strategy is to go long at low prices, not to chase high prices for single - side trading, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Data Core Data Changes - PVC production enterprises' output is 49.74 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.25% (0.12 tons) and a year - on - year increase of 5.75% (2.71 tons). The PVC industry's inventory sample is 184.17 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.91% and a year - on - year increase of 35.26%. The production enterprises' inventory is 43.45 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 15.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.07%. The social inventory is 140.72 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 63.89% [4]. - This week, there was no change in maintenance. The loads of some ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based enterprises changed. The loss of production due to maintenance and reduction this week is 11.31 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.09% and a year - on - year increase of 4.04%. The production capacity of enterprises under maintenance in March is 314 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 50.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.12% [4]. - The average weekly trading volume of the PVC market is 1.49 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 tons. The operating rate of downstream product enterprises is 39.33%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.49% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.84%. The profile operating rate is 30%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.50%. The pipe operating rate is 38%, with a month - on - month increase of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.56% [4]. - The available days of raw material inventory for downstream pipe and profile product enterprises decreased by 0.2 days to 13.8 days. Downstream product enterprises have reduced their purchasing desire and are considering exporting raw materials due to cost pressure and rising raw material prices [4]. - This week, the sample export order volume of PVC production enterprises decreased by 47.51% to 2.42 tons month - on - month and decreased by 26.85% year - on - year. The delivery volume decreased by 24.11% to 3.86 tons (excluding traders) month - on - month, and the undelivered volume decreased by 8.36% to 19.93 tons month - on - month and increased by 67.45% year - on - year. The FOB price of calcium carbide - based PVC for March delivery is 720 - 755 US dollars per ton, and the FOB price for April delivery is 820 - 880 US dollars per ton. The FOB price of ethylene - based PVC is 880 - 920 US dollars per ton [4]. PVC Supply Analysis - **Enterprise Output by Process**: Not provided in the content - **Enterprise Output by Region**: Not provided in the content - **Enterprise Pre - sales by Process**: Not provided in the content - **Enterprise Capacity Utilization by Process**: Not provided in the content - **Raw Material Source Weekly Operating Data**: Not provided in the content - **Maintenance Enterprise Statistics**: Many enterprises, including Shandong Dongyue, Wuhai Chemical, and others, have shut down or are under maintenance. Some enterprises have plans to shut down or reduce production in the future, such as Anhui Huasu in April and some ethylene - based enterprises in March and April [24]. - **Production Enterprise Production Increase Plan**: Many enterprises have production increase plans. For example, Zhejiang Jiajiaxingcheng New Materials plans to start production in 2026, and other enterprises have long - term or undetermined production increase plans [25]. PVC Cost Analysis - **Raw Material Cost Year - on - Year Comparison**: Not provided in the content - **Raw Material Gross Profit Year - on - Year Comparison**: Not provided in the content PVC Inventory Analysis - **Production Enterprise Inventory by Process/Region**: Not provided in the content - **PVC Social Inventory/Industry Inventory**: Not provided in the content PVC Demand Analysis - **Product Enterprise Operation and Inventory**: Not provided in the content

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand of the live - hog market is relatively loose in the short term. The follow - up price is mainly affected by the supply - side after the decline in inventory, with limited upside space [1][3]. - The live - hog futures price shows a significant downward trend. The recent sharp decline in the futures market is due to the deepening losses of the breeding end and increased market concerns about the subsequent supply side. The overall market pressure is still obvious [3]. - The sustainability of the increase in spot prices needs further observation, but the downside space is also limited. The price pressure is still significant, and there is still some pressure on the near - term futures contracts in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - side pressure is still obvious, and the overall futures price is expected to decline [3]. Group 3: Summary by Content Spot Price - Today, live - hog prices across the country are in a volatile state. Prices in the north generally show an upward trend, while those in the south show a downward trend. The overall出栏量 of large - scale enterprises has decreased compared to yesterday, but it is expected to continue to increase this month. The出栏量 of ordinary farmers remains relatively low, and it may increase in the future. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, and the market entry is still relatively cautious [1]. Futures Price - The live - hog futures price shows a significant downward trend. After rising under macro - influence, it has fallen significantly. The recent sharp decline in the futures market is due to the deepening losses of the breeding end and increased market concerns about the subsequent supply side [3]. Piglet and Sow Prices - The piglet price this week is 316, a decrease of 10 compared to last week. The sow price is 1539, a decrease of 4 compared to last week [1]. Contract Spreads - LH7 - 9 is - 920, a decrease of 100 compared to yesterday; LH9 - 1 is - 780, a decrease of 125 compared to yesterday; LH9 - 11 is - 260, a decrease of 55 compared to yesterday; LH11 - 1 is - 520, a decrease of 70 compared to yesterday [1]. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume today is 148,008 heads, an increase of 348 compared to yesterday [1]. Size - Pig Price Spreads - The price spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs is 0.6, a decrease of 0.05 compared to yesterday; the price spread between medium - large pigs and standard pigs is 0.08, a decrease of 0.01 compared to yesterday; the price spread between large pigs and medium - large pigs is 0.49, a decrease of 0.04 compared to yesterday; the price spread between large pigs and standard pigs is 0.57, a decrease of 0.05 compared to yesterday [1]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy for near - term contracts. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread for LH59. - Options: Sell call options for near - term contracts [4].