期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 4 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | | | | 蛋白粕：供应压力较大 | 盘面大幅下行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大涨 | 国内糖价小幅上调 5 | | 油脂板块：美国 | 45z 拟议规则出台，带动油脂上涨较多 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货偏弱，盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货整体下行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：节前备货进入尾声 | 蛋价有所下跌 10 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价跟随市场情绪延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面权重降低，资金扰动加大 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价偏弱运行 14 | | 铁合金：恐慌情绪有所缓和，仍可作为多头配置 15 | | 金银：金银市场回暖，节前风控仍是主线 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：风险释放后行情企稳 贵金属谨慎参与低多机会 1 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2026 年 2 月 3 日 【生猪日报】供应压力增加 现货整体下行 今 日 昨 日 变 化 今 日 昨 日 变 化 河南（0） 12.54 12.89 -0.35 山西（-100） 12.60 12.84 -0.24 湖北（0） 12.33 12.46 -0.13 辽宁（-300） 12.59 12.85 -0.26 安徽（200） 12.81 13.04 -0.23 吉林（-300） 12.43 12.67 -0.24 湖南（100） 12.36 12.30 0.06 黑龙江 12.47 12.60 -0.13 四川（-100） 11.86 11.94 -0.08 福建（500） 12.71 12.64 0.07 江西（100） 12.37 12.37 0.00 广东（500） 12.41 12.40 0.01 山东（200） 12.72 12.97 -0.25 广西(-200) 12.48 12.43 0.05 江苏（500） 12.83 13.04 -0.21 云南（-600） 11.74 11.74 0 河北（100） 12.76 13.02 -0.26 贵州（-3 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 02 月 03 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 1/ 10 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【交易策略】 单边：维持震荡偏弱走势 套利：建议逢高做空卷煤比，做空卷螺差继续持有。 期权：建议观望。 【重要资讯】 1.美国 1 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 录得 52.6，为 2022 年 8 月以来新高。 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3200 元（-），北京敬业 3140 元（-），上海鞍钢热卷 3260 元（-），天津河钢热卷 3160 元（-1）。 【交易策略】 今日钢材盘面维持震荡偏弱走势，现货成交整体偏弱，螺纹基本进入放假节奏， 热卷成交也偏弱，价格波动收窄。上周钢联数据公布，五大材加速增产，其中热卷增 产速度比螺纹更快；钢材总库存加快累库进度，其中螺纹累库而热卷依然去库，总体 社库压力大于厂库；近期天气转冷，下游工地陆陆续续停工，建材需求下滑；近 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2026 年 2 月 3 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 第二部分 行情研判 【重要资讯】 1. Covrig Analytics 首席农业分析师 Claudiu Covrig 表示，2026/27 年度全球糖过剩量预计 将缩减至 140 万吨低于 2025/26 年度的 470 万吨。Covrig 在迪拜糖业会议上指出，全球产量 预计将下降 1.3%至 1.916 亿吨，而消费量则有望增长 0.5%至 1.903 亿吨。 | 白糖数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/2/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,177 | -45 | -0.86% | 39,742 | 6672 | 116,173 | 4915 | | SR01 | | 5,280 | -43 | -0.81% | 349 | 83 | 1 ...

农产品日报 2024 年 02 月 03 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 研究所 农产品研发报告 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 相 | | | | | | 成 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 108.44 | 108.53 | -0.09 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.00 | 4.10 | -0.10 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.25 | -0.15 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.93 | 7.88 | 0.05 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong with upward potential in the long - run. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. In the short - term, ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, CF01 closed at 15190 with a 75 - point increase, CF05 at 14650 (+75), and CF09 at 14780 (+95). For cotton yarn futures, CY01 closed at 20250 (unchanged), CY05 at 20495 (+35), and CY09 at 20750 (+245). Trading volumes and open interest showed various changes [2] - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B was at 15987 yuan/ton, down 196; Cot A was at 73.95 cents/pound. Different yarn and fiber prices had different changes, with some remaining stable [2] - **Spreads**: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads also changed. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 540 (unchanged) [2] 2. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - As of January 31, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 78.6% complete, 18 percentage points higher month - on - month and 22.5 percentage points faster year - on - year [4] - As of January 30, 2026, the cumulative inspection of U.S. upland and Pima cotton was 296.18 million tons, accounting for 97.7% of the estimated annual output, 6% slower year - on - year [4] - As of February 1, the national cotton notarized inspection volume was 727.4 million tons, up 13.8% year - on - year, with Xinjiang accounting for 717.8 million tons (up 14.1%) and the inland area 9.6 million tons (down 5.7%) [5] - **Trading Logic**: There are news that Xinjiang's cotton planting area is expected to decrease by 266 million mu in 2026, a 7% reduction. However, several textile projects in Xinjiang are expected to boost cotton consumption, so the cotton fundamentals are strong [6] - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - sided**: ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to trade in a range in the short - term. Consider building long positions on dips [7] - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7] - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - Market trading has weakened, with traders and some fabric mills restocking on a small scale. Yarn mills' quotes are basically stable, while traders' quotes are slightly weak [9] - As the Spring Festival approaches, cotton fabric mills have fewer new orders, lower operating rates, and high finished - product inventories. Cotton fabric prices are expected to be stable in the short - term [9] 3. Options - The 60 - day HV of cotton was 9.2812 yesterday, with slightly increased volatility. The implied volatilities of different options were provided. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased in both open interest and trading volume [10] - Recommend a wait - and - see attitude for options [11] 4. Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton basis for different months, and spreads between cotton yarn and cotton futures contracts [13][16][20][21]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the Spring Festival, the overall demand for egg spot has been good recently, with spot prices rising. The profit situation is favorable, leading to a decrease in market culling enthusiasm. Considering that the egg consumption season will enter a slack period after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the overall reduction has weakened due to the recent good egg prices. It is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices of JD01, JD05, and JD09 remained unchanged from the previous trading day, with closing prices of 3683, 3445, and 3882 respectively. The spreads between different months also remained stable, such as 01 - 05 at 238, 05 - 09 at -437, and 09 - 01 at 199. The ratios of egg to corn and egg to soybean meal for different contracts also showed no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.63 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.86 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/jin. The national mainstream egg prices continued to decline, with prices in various regions such as Beijing, Northeast China, and Shandong mostly falling. The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 4.38 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [2][4]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - In December, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 0.08 billion from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than expected. The monthly output of laying - hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in December was about 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. From January 16th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was about 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week, and the average culling age was 485 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. As of January 16th, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7391 tons, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous week, at a historical low. As of January 15th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 yuan from the previous week, and the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming on January 9th was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week. As of January 15th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, and in the circulation link was 1.05 days, both slightly decreased from the previous week [5][6]. 3.4 Trading Logic - Near the Spring Festival, the overall demand for egg spot is good, with prices rising. The profit situation is favorable, and the culling enthusiasm has decreased. The culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas from January 23rd was 16.27 million, a decrease of 5% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 490 days, an increase of 5 days from the previous week. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption slack period, it is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Prices - DCE01 decreased from 753.5 to 749.0, a drop of 4.5; DCE05 decreased from 783.0 to 777.5, a drop of 5.5; DCE09 decreased from 766.0 to 760.0, a drop of 6.0 [2] - I01 - I05 increased from -29.5 to -28.5, a rise of 1.0; I05 - I09 increased from 17.0 to 17.5, a rise of 0.5; I09 - I01 decreased from 12.5 to 11.0, a drop of 1.5 [2] Spot Prices - Most spot iron ore prices decreased, such as PB powder (60.8%) dropped from 790 to 783, a decrease of 7; Newman powder dropped from 790 to 783, a decrease of 7; etc [2] - The optimal delivery product is Carajás fines, with a price of 825, 01 - contract factory - warehouse basis of 64, 05 - contract factory - warehouse basis of 34, and 09 - contract factory - warehouse basis of 51 [2] Spot Variety Spreads - Some spreads increased, like Carajás fines - PB powder spread increased from 90 to 92, a rise of 2; Newman powder - Jinbuba powder spread increased from 47 to 48, a rise of 1 [2] Import Profits - Import profits of some varieties changed, such as Carajás fines' import profit decreased from -1 to -7, a decrease of 6; Newman powder's import profit increased from 50 to 51, a rise of 1 [2] Index Prices - The Platts 61% iron ore price decreased from 103.2 to 102.4, a decrease of 0.8; the Platts 65% iron ore price decreased from 118.7 to 118.4, a decrease of 0.3; the Platts 58% iron ore price decreased from 95.2 to 94.1, a decrease of 1.1 [2][4] 内外盘美金价差 - SGX main - DCE01 decreased from 8.4 to 4.6, a decrease of 3.9; SGX main - DCE05 decreased from 4.4 to 0.8, a decrease of 3.6; SGX main - DCE09 decreased from 6.8 to 3.0, a decrease of 3.9 [2][4]

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 2 月 3 日 | 第一部分 | | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/2/3 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | | 7926 | -12 | -0.15% | 10,482 | -18.10% | 53,118 | 5.31% | | PK610 | | 8232 | 20 | 0.24% | 64 | -56.46% | 2,727 | -0.11% | | PK601 | | 8210 | 4 | 0.05% | 2 | -71.43% | 28 | 3.70% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | | 现货 | | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 2 月 3 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5620 | -4 | 16 | 103691 | -27839 | 110111 | -8055 | | SM主力合约 | 5836 | 2 | 18 | 134856 | -51389 | 361029 | 948 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5420 | 0 | 70 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5680 | 0 | 0 | | 72%Fe ...