供需略有改善 底部震荡运行 银河期货大宗商品研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 9 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本面方面，供应端表现分化，本周硅铁产量小幅下降，锰硅产量小幅回升，总体来看，此前的持续复产趋势转为高位平稳 运行。需求方面，247家钢厂铁水产量在阅兵结束后大幅回升，原料需求也维持高位。不过，进入9月第2周，钢材需求回升 的情况仍不明显，本周样本钢材库存仍然有所累积，叠加钢材利润处于低位，减产冲击原料需求的风险仍然存在。成本端近 期主产区电价小幅上行，锰矿港口库存整体平稳，且明显低于往年同期，成本端对锰硅有所支撑。总体来看， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, Malaysian palm oil production increased as expected and inventories accumulated. Production in September is expected to decline, while the spot prices in the producing areas remain stable. Soybean oil is affected by the expectations of the US biodiesel policy. The short - term market lacks obvious drivers, but the downside support for soybean oil is strong. Chinese rapeseed oil continues to see a marginal reduction in inventories, which supports the rapeseed oil price. There is still uncertainty in the policy as Canada is considering exempting or reducing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in exchange for China's relaxation of restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports [5][29]. - The short - term oil market lacks obvious drivers and is in a bottom - grinding stage. It is advisable to consider buying on dips in batches after a pullback. For arbitrage and option strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [31]. Summary by Directory First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Recent Core Events and Market Review - MPOB's August palm oil supply - demand data shows that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August reached 2.2 million tons, production increased by 2% to 1.86 million tons, exports dropped to 1.32 million tons, and apparent consumption increased to 0.49 million tons. SPPOMA data indicates that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of September decreased by 3% month - on - month, and ITS estimates that exports in the same period decreased by 1% month - on - month [4][5]. - This week, the oil futures market showed differentiation. Soybean and palm oil mainly oscillated and declined, while rapeseed oil oscillated and rose slightly [5]. International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In August, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2% to 1.86 million tons, and the ending inventory reached 2.2 million tons, a 4% increase month - on - month. Exports were lower than expected. SPPOMA data shows that production in the first 10 days of September decreased by 3% month - on - month, and it is expected to decline by about 4% in September. ITS estimates a 1% month - on - month decrease in exports in the first 10 days of September. The spot price of Malaysian CPO is oscillating strongly around 4,400 ringgit, and the overall spot price in the producing areas remains firm [11]. - **US Biodiesel Policy**: There were many rumors about the US SRE this week. The news is unfavorable to the supply of US biodiesel, resulting in weaker demand for soybean oil and a downward trend in US soybean oil. The production and blending profits of US biodiesel this year are poor, and the use of soybean oil in biodiesel is lower than last year. The D4 rins price has weakened recently and fell below $1 as of September 9th [14]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of September 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China was 619,300 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week. The import profit margin was around - 200 yuan, and there was one near - month purchase this week. After the futures price decline, spot trading increased significantly, with a cumulative trading volume of about 14,000 tons. The short - term palm oil market lacks obvious drivers and will maintain an oscillating trend. It is advisable to consider buying on dips in batches as the negative factors are gradually decreasing [19]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of September 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China was 1.2513 million tons, a 1.01% increase from the previous week. The basis in East China remained stable at 01 + 210. The soybean import volume in August was 12.28 million tons, and it is expected to decline to about 10 million tons in September. The soybean crush will gradually decline, and soybean oil inventory may start to decrease slightly. Affected by the US biodiesel policy, the short - term market lacks obvious drivers, but the downside support is strong. It is advisable to consider buying on dips [24]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of September 5, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 635,000 tons, a 4.37% decrease from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil FOB price declined, and the import profit margin narrowed to around - 400 yuan. There was a rumor of a rapeseed oil purchase from Dubai this week. The spot market was weak, but the basis and the monthly spread increased. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much. The entry of Australian rapeseed into the Chinese market is still uncertain. Continued marginal reduction in inventories supports the rapeseed oil price. It is necessary to continue to monitor rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [27]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - The content mainly includes various data charts of international and domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil production, exports, inventories, consumption, and basis, etc., but no specific data analysis conclusions are provided in the text [34][40][45]

华北玉米价格承压 盘面震荡回落 银河农产品 研究员：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 11 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 玉米：美玉米后期可能会下调单产，美玉米本周420美分/蒲附近震荡，但美玉米供应宽松，短期美玉米窄幅震荡，预计美玉米12合约400美分/蒲支撑较强。 截止9月12日，玉米拍卖483万吨，成交156万吨，成交率32%。进口玉米持续拍卖，华北玉米陆续上市，国内玉米现货继续回落。目前市场焦点开始转向华北市 场，市场预期华北玉米9月底大量上市大概率2200元/吨附近。11玉米考虑到农户惜售，价格偏强，01玉米由于年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The new - season peanut prices are falling, and the futures market is oscillating at the bottom. Traders can try selling the pk511 - P - 7600 option strategy, consider buying 05 peanuts at low prices, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the 10 - 1 spread when it is high [5][6]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Option Strategy**: Try selling the pk511 - P - 7600 option strategy [5]. - **Trading Logic**: Peanut trading volume has decreased. The prices of general - purpose peanuts in Henan and Northeast China have declined, while the purchase prices of oil mills are relatively strong. The price of general - purpose peanuts in Henan is around 4.3 yuan per jin. Imported peanut prices are stable, but the import volume has decreased significantly. The operating rate of oil mills has increased, the spot price of peanut meal is stable, the price of peanut oil has fallen, and the profit of oil mills from pressing has decreased. Downstream consumption remains weak. The inventory of peanut oil and peanuts in oil mills is decreasing but still at a high level. The November peanut futures are oscillating at the bottom, and the 11 - 1 spread is stable. Some new peanuts have been listed, demand is weak, the output of new - season peanuts may increase or remain flat, and the planting cost has decreased. Peanut spot prices continue to fall, and futures are oscillating at the bottom [6]. - **Strategy**: The November peanut futures are oscillating at the bottom. Consider buying 05 peanuts at low prices [6]. - **Spread Strategy**: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 10 - 1 spread when it is high [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Peanut Price**: The purchase prices of oil mills and imported peanuts are stable, while the prices of general - purpose peanuts are falling. In Shandong, the price of large - grain peanuts in Junan is 4.1 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per jin from last week; in Henan, the price of new - season peanuts in Zhengyang is 4.3 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per jin from last week; in Liaoning, the price of Baisha peanuts in Changtu is 3.95 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per jin from last week; in Jilin, the price of Baisha peanuts in Fuyu is 3.9 yuan per jin, remaining stable from last week. The general - purpose peanut market has average trading volume, and prices are falling. Most oil mills have stopped purchasing, and the basic purchase price is between 7300 - 7800 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week. The price of Sudanese old peanuts is 8150 yuan per ton, new peanuts are 8500 yuan per ton, and Senegalese oil - used peanuts are 7600 - 7800 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week [9][11]. - **Domestic Demand**: The operating rate of oil mills has increased, and peanut inventory has decreased. As of September 11, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 9.47%, a month - on - month increase of 4.21%. The arrival volume of oil mills has increased. The peanut inventory in oil mills is 65,600 tons, a decrease of 7100 tons from last week, and the peanut oil inventory is 37,000 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week [13][15]. - **Pressing Profit**: The purchase price of peanuts by oil mills is stable, the price of peanut oil has fallen, and the pressing profit has decreased. The pressing profit of peanut oil mills is 135 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 58 yuan per ton. The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,700 yuan per ton, a decrease of 100 yuan per ton from last week, and the price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is 16,500 yuan per ton, a decrease of 200 yuan per ton from last week. Due to the strong spot price of soybean meal, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and the price of peanut meal is relatively strong, remaining stable at 3260 yuan per ton this week [17][19]. - **Basis and Spread**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. This week, the November peanut futures are oscillating at the bottom, and the 11 - 1 spread is stable at around - 30 yuan. The basis between spot and futures has fallen [21][24]. - **Peanut Import**: The import volume of peanuts has decreased significantly. In July, the import volume of peanut kernels was 9500 tons, and from January to July, the cumulative import volume was 103,000 tons, a 77% decrease compared to the same period last year. In July, the export volume of peanut kernels was 9000 tons, and from January to July, the cumulative export volume was 95,000 tons, a 27% increase compared to the same period last year. In July, the import volume of peanut oil was 42,000 tons, and from January to July, the cumulative import volume of peanut oil was 223,000 tons, a 40% increase compared to the same period last year [27][29]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Peanut Price**: Charts show the historical price trends of Shandong general - purpose peanut kernels, oil mill procurement prices, and the basis between Shandong spot and continuous contracts [33][34]. - **Basis and Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the 1 - 4 spread, 4 - 10 spread, and 10 - 1 spread of peanuts [38][39]. - **Peanut Import and Export**: Charts and data show the cumulative import volume of Chinese peanuts, cumulative export volume of peanut kernels, and the import volume of peanut oil, including the import volume from different countries and regions and the import price [41][59]. - **Pressing Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal, and the price of peanut oil in Shandong [44][45]. - **Downstream**: Charts show the operating rate of pressing plants, peanut pressing volume, and peanut oil inventory in oil mills [51][52]. - **Peanut Oil Import**: Charts and data show the import price of peanut oil and the monthly cumulative import volume of Chinese peanut oil, as well as the import volume from different countries and regions [57][59]. - **Price Difference**: Charts show the price differences between peanut oil and soybean oil, sunflower oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal [61][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans/meal, the CBOT soybean index rose slightly while the CBOT meal index declined. With various factors like export sales, NOPA压榨 reports, and Brazilian planting area and yield forecasts, strategies include going long on distant - month contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal, expanding the MRM05 spread, and buying call options [2][3][5]. - For sugar, international sugar is expected to enter a inventory - building phase, with a narrowing supply gap. Domestic sugar has low inventory but large imports. The price is expected to rebound at a low level, and trading strategies involve a slightly bullish short - term outlook for Zhengzhou sugar, staying on the sidelines for spreads, and selling put options [6][9][10]. - For oils, palm oil production and inventory building in Malaysia are expected to slow down, and Indonesian prices are supported. U.S. soybeans have a strong harvest expectation, and domestic soybean oil is in the inventory - building stage. Strategies include buying on dips for short - term trading, staying on the sidelines for spreads and options [12][15][16]. - For corn/corn starch, the CBOT corn futures rebounded. Domestic corn supply is tight, but prices may fall. Trading strategies involve short - term long positions on the 12 - month CBOT corn on dips, staying on the sidelines for the 01 - month contract, and slightly expanding the spread between the 11 - month corn and starch [21][23][24]. - For pigs, the supply pressure has decreased slightly, but there is still some pressure due to high inventory and weight. Strategies include shorting near - month contracts on rallies, conducting LH15 reverse spreads, and buying long - term call options [27][28][29]. - For peanuts, the spot supply is limited, and the market is stable. The 11 - and 01 - month contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and the 05 - month contract can be lightly long. Stay on the sidelines for spreads and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [32][34][35]. - For eggs, the supply pressure remains, and demand is expected to increase slightly during festivals. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for all trading methods [40][42][43]. - For apples, the early - maturing apple quality is poor, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Stay on the sidelines for spreads and options, and expect short - term fluctuations for new - season apples [44][45][46]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, the new cotton harvest is approaching, with high production and low enthusiasm from ginners. There will be selling hedging pressure, and demand improvement is limited. Strategies include shorting Zhengzhou cotton on rallies, staying on the sidelines for spreads and options [49][52][53]. Summary by Directory Soybeans/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.1% to 1052 cents/bushel, CBOT meal index fell 0.3% to 291.3 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Relevant Information**: U.S. soybean and meal export sales data, NOPA压榨 report forecast, Brazilian soybean planting area and yield forecast, and domestic oil mill soybean and meal inventory data [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple factors affect the market, and there are opportunities for long - term growth [2][3][4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long on distant - month contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal, expand the MRM05 spread, buy call options [5]. Sugar - **External Market Changes**: ICE U.S. raw sugar and London white sugar prices declined [6]. - **Important Information**: Brazilian port sugar shipping data, fire in Brazilian sugar - cane areas, and Chinese sugar import data [7][8]. - **Logic Analysis**: International sugar is in a supply - increasing phase, and domestic sugar is affected by imports. The price is expected to rebound [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Slightly bullish short - term outlook for Zhengzhou sugar, stay on the sidelines for spreads, sell put options [10][11]. Oils - **External Market**: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices changed slightly [12]. - **Relevant Information**: Malaysian palm oil planting area, U.S. soybean drought situation, and Canadian rapeseed export data [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Palm oil production and inventory building in Malaysia are expected to slow down, and domestic oil fundamentals vary [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Buy on dips for short - term trading, stay on the sidelines for spreads and options [16][17][18]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures rebounded [21]. - **Important Information**: CBOT corn and wheat futures prices, domestic corn inventory and consumption data, and corn purchase price [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: U.S. corn has room to rebound, and domestic corn prices may fall [23]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term long positions on the 12 - month CBOT corn on dips, stay on the sidelines for the 01 - month contract, slightly expand the spread between the 11 - month corn and starch [24][25]. Pigs - **Relevant Information**: Pig price, piglet and sow price, and agricultural product wholesale price index [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply pressure has decreased slightly but still exists [28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short near - month contracts on rallies, conduct LH15 reverse spreads, buy long - term call options [29]. Peanuts - **Important Information**: Peanut price, oil mill purchase price, peanut oil and meal price, and peanut inventory [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: Spot supply is limited, and the market is stable [34]. - **Trading Strategies**: The 11 - and 01 - month contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, lightly long the 05 - month contract, stay on the sidelines for spreads, sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [35][37][38]. Eggs - **Important Information**: Egg price, in - production laying hen inventory, egg - chick hatchling volume, hen culling data, egg sales volume, and inventory [40][41][42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply pressure remains, and demand may increase slightly during festivals [42]. - **Trading Strategies**: Stay on the sidelines for all trading methods [43]. Apples - **Important Information**: Apple cold - storage inventory, export and import data, spot price, and storage profit [44][45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Early - maturing apple quality is poor, and the price is expected to fluctuate [45]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect short - term fluctuations for new - season apples, stay on the sidelines for spreads and options [46][47][48]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: ICE U.S. cotton price declined [49]. - **Important Information**: Indian cotton rainfall, U.S. cotton export sales, and domestic cotton spot trading and basis [50][51]. - **Trading Logic**: New cotton harvest is approaching, with high production and limited demand improvement [52]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short Zhengzhou cotton on rallies, stay on the sidelines for spreads and options [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market has increased expectations of three interest rate cuts within the year due to the decline in the US PPI to 2.6% and the weakening of the US non - farm payroll data. Copper supply is facing disruptions, and the market is expected to have a pattern of "increased supply and weakened consumption" next week [3][4]. - The alumina supply - demand surplus is becoming more apparent in the spot market, with prices showing a downward trend, but there may be interference from the "anti - involution" sentiment [11][13]. - The aluminum price is supported by the increase in market interest rate cut expectations and the improvement in fundamental factors such as the decrease in ingot casting volume and the reduction in social inventory [17][21]. - The policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry have initially shown their impact, but the actual influence is still limited to local areas. The alloy ingot spot price is expected to remain stable and slightly strong [25][29]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increased social inventory and weak consumption, and the short - term price trend is not clear [34][37]. - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [41]. - The nickel market is affected by factors such as the increase in LME inventory and high supply growth, and the price has limited upward space and a weak trend [48][49]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern due to concerns about recession risks and the accumulation of supply pressure [57]. - The tin market has tight ore supply and uncertain demand recovery, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63][66]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight - balance state, and short - term long positions are recommended [70]. - The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [75][76]. - The lithium carbonate market has a stage - tight supply - demand situation, and short - term rebounds can be considered for short - selling opportunities [81]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review**: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE copper 2510 contract was 80,130 yuan/ton, up 0.56%, with the index position increasing by 8,972 lots to 494,900 lots. The spot premium in Shanghai rose to 85 yuan/ton, while the premiums in Guangdong and North China decreased [2]. - **Important Information**: Panama is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the possible restart of its closed copper mine. As of September 11, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.26 million tons compared to Monday, but is expected to increase slightly next week [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic factors increase interest - rate cut expectations, and the copper supply is affected by production accidents and policies, with tight supply and weakened consumption [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a weak oscillation [14]. 3.2 Alumina - **Market Review**: The price of the alumina 2511 contract increased by 16 yuan to 2,925 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [8]. - **Relevant Information**: India has postponed the approval of an alumina project, and some electrolytic aluminum enterprises are conducting alumina procurement tenders. The industry's average profit in August was 368 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus is obvious, and prices are falling. The flow of goods from the north to the south is increasing, and the market is in a weak state [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: After a correction, consider long positions on dips, conduct inter - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [11]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE aluminum 2510 contract was 20,915 yuan/ton, up 1,305 yuan, with the position increasing by 27,022 lots to 569,300 lots. Spot prices in various regions increased [17]. - **Relevant Information**: The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, and China's CPI and PPI data were released. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased, and some overseas projects are progressing [17][18]. - **Trading Logic**: The market's interest - rate cut expectations support the price, and the improvement in fundamentals such as inventory reduction drives the price up [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be considered on dips. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [22][23]. 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 125 yuan to 20,475 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 2,314 lots to 14,012 lots. Spot prices remained stable [25]. - **Relevant Information**: Policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry are affecting the market, the industry's profit in August was 104 yuan/ton, and the futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [25][26][28]. - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes, tight raw material supply, and increasing downstream demand support the price, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly with aluminum, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [30][31]. 3.5 Zinc - **Market Review**: The SHFE zinc 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 22,250 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 970 lots to 222,700 lots. The spot market trading was dull [33]. - **Relevant Information**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and the CZSPT released the reference range for the import zinc concentrate processing fee [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of smelters may decline slightly in September, consumption is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [35][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, and consider short positions on rallies [38]. 3.6 Lead - **Market Review**: The SHFE lead 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 742 lots to 89,300 lots. The spot market had weak demand [39]. - **Relevant Information**: The social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may move sideways in the short term [42]. 3.7 Nickel - **Market Review**: The SHFE nickel main contract NI2510 rose 130 yuan to 120,620 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 5,412 lots. The premiums of different nickel products changed [43][44]. - **Relevant Information**: SMM expects the Indonesian domestic trade ore price to rise slightly in the second half of September [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in LME inventory and high supply growth limit the upward space of the price [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [50][51][52]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract fell 30 yuan to 12,795 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 1,990 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported [54]. - **Relevant Information**: The stainless - steel inventory in Foshan decreased, and a new project's environmental impact report was being approved [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: Concerns about recession risks and supply pressure lead to a wide - range oscillation pattern [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage [58][59]. 3.9 Tin - **Market Review**: The main SHFE tin 2510 contract closed at 271,260 yuan/ton, up 1,780 yuan/ton or 0.66%, and the position decreased by 532 lots to 57,067 lots. The spot price rose, but the trading was slow [61]. - **Relevant Information**: US and Chinese economic data were released, and the domestic tin production in August decreased [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The ore supply is tight, the demand recovery is uncertain, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate weakly, and temporarily wait and see for options [66][67]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Affected by market rumors, the industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated strongly, closing at 8,740 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price generally rose 100 yuan/ton [68][69]. - **Relevant Information**: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [70]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The market is in a tight - balance state, and the price has an upward trend [70]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and consider reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts [71]. 3.11 Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract rose slightly, closing at 53,710 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price remained stable [74]. - **Relevant Information**: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released, and the demand and supply situation of polysilicon in September was analyzed [75]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [76]. - **Strategy**: Participate in light long positions with timely stop - loss, conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy wide - straddle options for profit - taking [77]. 3.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 880 yuan to 71,000 yuan/ton, the index position decreased by 17,672 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 290 tons to 38,391 tons. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased [78]. - **Relevant Information**: Shanghai's new energy上网电价 reform notice was issued, and the national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [79][80]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand situation is stage - tight, and the price may have a short - term rebound [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds, temporarily wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [80][81][83].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The unexpected decline in the US PPI data has temporarily alleviated market concerns about US inflation. Combined with the weakening of the US non - farm employment data, the market's expectation of multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed this year has been further strengthened, and precious metals continue to trade near historical highs. The upcoming US CPI data may affect the subsequent rate - cut amplitude and bring new fluctuations to the market [2][3]. - For various metals, their market trends are influenced by factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes. Each metal has its own trading strategy based on its specific situation. 3. Summary by Metal Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Market Review**: London gold rose 0.45% to $3639.81/oz, and London silver rose 0.57% to $41.14/oz. The US dollar index rose 0.07% to 97.81, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.044%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.06% to 7.1207. In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.21% to 835.16 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.47% to 9817 yuan/kg [2]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI annual rate was 2.6%, a new low since June, and the monthly rate was - 0.1%. The Trump administration's actions and the Fed's possible rate - cut probability are also important factors [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The unexpected decline in PPI and the weak labor market data have strengthened the market's expectation of rate cuts, and precious metals continue to trade near historical highs. The upcoming CPI data may affect the rate - cut amplitude [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For Shanghai gold, continue to hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average; for Shanghai silver, consider lightly testing long positions based on the 5 - day moving average. Adopt a bullish collar option strategy and wait and see for arbitrage [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80190 yuan/ton, up 0.64%, and the LME copper closed at $10012/ton, up 0.96%. The LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 15.50 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1010 tons to 30.87 million tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI was lower than expected, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released, and Peru's copper production in July increased year - on - year [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in US PPI and weak employment data have increased the market's expectation of rate cuts. The supply of copper is tight due to production accidents, and the domestic refined copper production in September is expected to decline, but imports increase. The terminal consumption is weak, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [7][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider laying out long positions after a callback, conduct inter - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of the alumina 2510 contract rose 10 yuan to 2915 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions decreased [12]. - **Important Information**: The approval of an Indian bauxite mining project was postponed, which may affect the production of an alumina plant. There were spot alumina procurement tenders by electrolytic aluminum enterprises, and the industry's average profit in August increased [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The oversupply of alumina is more obvious in the spot market, and the prices are falling. The supply is flowing from the north to the south, and the fundamental weakness remains. However, beware of the interference of "anti - involution" sentiment on prices [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to run weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 40 to 20390 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [17]. - **Important Information**: Policy changes in the recycling of aluminum, such as tax refund and reverse invoicing compliance, have affected some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi. The industry's average cost and profit in August were calculated, and the inventory in some regions increased [17][18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy changes have affected the supply of scrap aluminum. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the supply is tightening. The alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [21][22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract rose 45 yuan to 20830 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in different regions decreased [24]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI data, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and some overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum projects had new developments [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market's expectation of rate cuts is rising. The fundamentals are supportive with increased aluminum - water conversion rate, decreased ingot production, and improved downstream开工率. Overseas projects' progress needs attention [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price will fluctuate with the external market in the short term. Consider going long after a callback. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [27]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc rose 0.72% to $2887.5/ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.34% to 22245 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was average [29]. - **Important Information**: The CZSPT set the import zinc concentrate processing fee guidance range for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. The domestic zinc inventory increased, and a company's production data was disclosed [29][30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic zinc smelting production may decline slightly in September, but the consumption is weak, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The LME inventory is decreasing and has a certain support for the price [31][33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and consider lightly laying out short positions at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [33]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead rose 0.53% to $1988.5/ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.03% to 16845 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was weak [35]. - **Important Information**: The domestic lead inventory increased, and a battery manufacturer planned to expand production, and a smelter was about to resume production [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The reduction and shutdown of domestic lead smelters due to losses and weak consumption may lead to a weak supply - demand pattern in the short term, and the price will continue to fluctuate [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai lead price may move sideways in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel rose $65 to $15170/ton, and the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 290 to 120780 yuan/ton. The spot premiums remained stable [39]. - **Important Information**: SMM predicted the increase of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore prices, and national economic and social development policies were reported [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weak US employment data and high supply growth rate limit the upward space of nickel prices, and the price trend is weak [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [40][42]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract rose 20 to 12845 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported. The inventory in Foshan decreased [44]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel deep - processing project was approved, and the market was worried about recession risks despite the Fed's expected rate cut [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's expected rate cut in September and weak domestic consumption growth, combined with supply pressure, are expected to keep the stainless - steel price in a wide - range fluctuation pattern [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 1.58% to 8665 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [47][49]. - **Important Information**: National economic and social development policies were reported [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand of industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state. The low inventory of manufacturers and high acceptance of high - price silicon by downstream enterprises provide support for price increases. The silicon industry conference may bring good news [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and participate in the reverse arbitrage of the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract fell 4.40% to 52885 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of some products decreased [52]. - **Important Information**: National economic and social development policies were reported. The silicon wafer production in September increased, and the polysilicon production was expected to remain stable. The industry's total inventory was high [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, but the short - term 11th contract may face a callback due to factors such as futures premium and concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation. After a callback and stabilization, long positions are recommended [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in long positions after a callback and stabilization, conduct reverse arbitrage of the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy wide - straddle options for profit - taking [54]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract fell 3620 to 70720 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of electric and industrial carbonate decreased [56]. - **Important Information**: Shanghai's new energy power - grid price reform policy and national fiscal policy information were reported [56][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand of lithium carbonate is still tight in the short term, and the price has technical support. However, the long - term oversupply is difficult to reverse [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai tin 2510 contract rose 0.93% to 271990 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable. The trading volume was acceptable [60]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI data, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released, and the domestic refined tin production in August decreased [60][62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in US PPI has strengthened the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the traditional consumption season may be postponed. The LME and domestic inventories have changed [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price will be boosted in the short term due to the strengthened Fed rate - cut expectation. Wait and see for options [63].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 9 月 11 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/9/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8336 | 80 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8536 | | | | 8656 | 8486 | | 320 | 0 | 200 | 0 | 150 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 9330 | 86 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 9290 | | | | 9330 ...

燃料油日报 2025 年 9 月 11 日 燃料油日报 第一部分 相关数据 研究员： 吴晓蓉 期货从业证号： F03108405 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021537 ： 021-65789108 ： wuxiaorong_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 2025/9/11 | 2025/9/10 | 2025/9/4 | 2025/8/14 | Δ日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU主力 | 2802 | 2786 | 2760 | 2700 | 16 | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 20.2 | 19.6 | 20.0 | 13.3 | 0.6 | | FU仓单(吨) | 101500 | 101500 | 108300 | 80710 | 0 | | LU主力 | 3374 | 3383 | 3412 | 3449 | - 9 | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 0.1 | | LU仓单 | 10020 | 10020 | 34500 | 16080 | 0 | | FU10-1 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Peanut Daily Report [2] - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [2][3] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [2] - Researcher's Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [2] - Researcher's Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [2] Group 2: Data Futures Disk | Futures | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Increase/Decrease Rate | Open Interest | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PK604 | 7868 | -10 | -0.13% | 18 | 500.00% | 435 | 0.93% | | PK510 | 7894 | 18 | 0.23% | 7,767 | 8.34% | 25,643 | -7.08% | | PK601 | 7824 | -22 | -0.28% | 6,322 | -16.91% | 36,770 | 1.19% | [3] Spot and Basis | Spot | Henan Nanyang | Shandong Jining | Shandong Linyi | Rizhao Peanut Meal | Rizhao Soybean Meal | Peanut Oil | Rizhao First - Grade Soybean Oil | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Today's Quote | 9000 | 8400 | 8400 | 3350 | 2990 | 14780 | 8410 | | Change | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -30 | | Basis | 1106 | 506 | 506 | Soybean Meal - Peanut Meal | 0 | Peanut Oil - Soybean Oil | 6370 | [3] Import Price - Sudanese Rice: 8500 yuan/ton, no change - Senegalese Rice: Information incomplete, 0 change [3] Spread | Peanut Inter - period | Spread | Change | Peanut Inter - period | Spread | Change | Peanut Inter - period | Spread | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PK01 - PK04 | -44 | -12 | PK04 - PK10 | -26 | -28 | PK10 - PK01 | 70 | 40 | [3] Group 3: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China have declined. In the Northeast, Jilin Fuyu 308 common peanuts are 3.9 yuan/jin, stable; Liaoning Changtu is 3.95 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. In Henan, Baisha common peanuts are 4.3 - 4.4 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin; Shandong Junan is 4.1 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin. Imported Sudanese refined new rice is 8150 yuan/ton, Senegalese oil - used peanuts are 7600 - 7700 yuan/ton, stable. Peanut spot is expected to be relatively weak in the short term [5] - Most peanut oil mills have stopped purchasing. Before stopping, the mainstream transaction price was 7300 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills is 8050 yuan/ton. Soybean oil and peanut oil prices are stable, with domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 14800 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton [5][8] - By - products: Rizhao soybean meal spot is weak, at 2980 yuan/ton, stable. The unit protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is high, and peanut meal is weak in the short term, with 48 - protein peanut meal at 3260 yuan/ton [8] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Peanut 11 is oscillating at a low level. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. Those looking to bottom - fish can try Peanut 05 [11] - Monthly Spread: Wait and see [12] - Options: Hold the short position of pk511 - P - 7600 [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figure 1: Shandong Peanut Spot Price (yuan/ton) - Figure 2: Peanut Oil Mill Pressing Profit (yuan/ton) - Figure 3: Peanut Oil Price (yuan/ton) - Figure 4: Basis between Peanut Spot and Continuous Contracts (yuan/ton) - Figure 5: Spread between Peanut 10 - 1 Contracts (yuan/ton) - Figure 6: Spread between Peanut 1 - 4 Contracts (yuan/ton) [15][21][24]