Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets have limited changes, with reduced market volatility. The soybean meal futures price is driven by the US soybean market and market information, while the rapeseed meal futures price is affected by the uncertainty of future supply. The international soybean market has supply pressure, mainly concentrated in South America. The domestic spot market is relatively loose, with increasing oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation. The report provides trading strategies, including suggesting to exit long positions and positive spreads, and to wait and see for options [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The US soybean futures showed a strong trend. After the monthly supply - demand report showed negative news, the market rebounded. The domestic soybean meal futures were driven by the US soybean market and market information, while the rapeseed meal futures rebounded significantly due to the uncertainty of future supply. The inter - month spreads of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures showed different trends [2]. Fundamentals - The adjustment of the US soybean new - crop balance sheet was negative, with lower exports and higher crushing, and a slight increase in ending stocks. As of July 6, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%. The export inspection volume of old - crop US soybeans was 389,400 tons as of July 3. The May US soybean crushing data was good, with a 1.37% month - on - month increase. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers was slow, and the recent selling progress continued to slow down, with price pressure emerging. Brazilian soybean crushing decreased, and the crushing profit was relatively low. Argentina's domestic crushing may improve, but soybean exports may increase. Overall, the international soybean supply pressure is concentrated in South America [3]. - The domestic spot market was relatively loose. As of July 11, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, the operating rate was 64.52%, the soybean inventory was 6.5749 million tons (a 3.31% increase from last week and an 11.18% increase year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory was 886,200 tons (a 7.76% increase from last week and a 27.32% decrease year - on - year). The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has gradually weakened, and although the supply is uncertain, the demand is also weakening, so it is expected to be in a volatile state [5]. Macro and Logic Analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London provided no clear information, and the market was still worried about supply uncertainty. The domestic soybean meal futures had some support, but the rebound space was limited. The US soybean futures were expected to have limited deep - decline and rebound space. The inter - month spreads of the futures may face some pressure but also have limited deep - decline space. The rapeseed meal market was mainly affected by supply uncertainty, and it was difficult to show a strong trend. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was expected to widen, and the inter - month spread of rapeseed meal futures may also face pressure [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to exit the M91 positive spread and wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [7].

Report Overview - The report is a corn starch daily report dated July 15, 2025, focusing on corn and corn starch markets, including data, market analysis, trading strategies, and option strategies [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The US corn planting is completed, and the US corn market is weak. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the US corn price continues to decline, and weather factors may become a future market driver. In China, the import profit of foreign corn is high. The northern port's flat - warehouse price is stable, the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area has declined, and the supply in North China is expected to be tight. The corn starch inventory has increased, and the price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream stocking. In the short - term, the 09 corn will oscillate, and the basis will strengthen, with potential for a rebound. The 09 starch's decline space is limited [4][6][7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - Corn futures contracts C2601, C2605, C2509 and corn starch futures contracts CS2601, CS2605, CS2509 all showed price declines on July 15, 2025. For example, C2601 closed at 2236, down 2 (-0.09%), and CS2601 closed at 2605, down 5 (-0.19%). The trading volume of most contracts decreased, while the open interest of some contracts increased [2] 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions had different trends. For example, the price in Qinggang decreased by 10 to 2230, while that in Shouguang increased by 10 to 2454. Corn starch spot prices remained stable. The basis of corn and corn starch showed different values in various regions [2] 3.1.3 Spreads - Corn inter - term spreads, corn starch inter - term spreads, and cross - variety spreads all had price changes. For example, C01 - C05 spread was - 36, down 2, and CS09 - C09 spread was 346, up 1 [2] 3.2 Second Part: Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn market is affected by planting completion, tariff reduction, and potential weather speculation. In China, the import profit of foreign corn is high, the northern port price is stable, the Northeast spot price has declined, the North China supply is tight, and the domestic breeding demand is weak. The 09 corn futures continue to decline, but there is potential for a rebound due to tight supply in North China [4][6] 3.2.2 Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The corn starch inventory has increased, with a monthly increase of 2.14% and a year - on - year increase of 26.97%. The starch price is affected by corn price and downstream stocking. The 09 starch futures are weakly oscillating, and the decline space is limited [7] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Domestic 09 corn will have narrow - range oscillations, and a light - position short - term long position in 09 corn can be considered. Arbitrage: Close the position of buying spot and shorting 09 corn, and widen the spread between 09 corn and starch at low levels for oscillating operations [8][9] 3.3 Third Part: Corn Options - Option Strategy: Spot - holding enterprises can sell corn call options [12] 3.4 Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The attachments include charts of corn spot prices in different regions, corn 09 contract basis, corn 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 09 contract basis, and corn starch - corn 09 contract spread, which visually show the price trends and relationships of relevant products [14][16][21]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 联系方式： :huangying_qh1@chinastock.com.cn | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | SR2509 | | 5,802 | -15 | -0.26% | 143,216 | -18.77% | 317,114 | -3.20% | | SR2601 | | 5,635 | - 4 | -0.07% | 19,895 | -17.88% | 114,390 | 0.73% | | SR2511 | | 5,694 | 7 | 0.12% | 20,230 | -13.80% | 51,934 | -3.19% | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 湛江 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日照 | 西安 | | 今日报价 | | 6130 | 5905 | - | 6060 | 61 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pig Daily Report" [2] - Report Date: July 15, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall pig price showed a decline today. After the previous continuous price increase, the market supply began to recover, but the price decline space is limited. The follow - up supply pressure still exists, and it is difficult for the spot price to continue to strengthen [4]. - The pig futures showed a volatile decline today. After the previous sharp increase, the market's bullish sentiment decreased, and the futures price is expected to be affected by the weakening spot price. The spread between contract months is expected to be volatile [5]. Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Price - The average spot price of pigs was 13.77 yuan/kg today, down 0.03 yuan/kg from yesterday. Most regions showed a decline [4]. Futures Price - Futures contracts like LH01 rose by 40, while LH03 and LH05 declined by 25 and 5 respectively. LH07 remained unchanged, LH09 declined by 35, LH11 rose by 15 [4]. Other Prices - The price of piglets was 440 yuan, up 1 yuan from last week; the price of sows was 1628 yuan, up 7 yuan from last week [4]. - The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 133.87 yuan/head, up 14.15 yuan; the profit from purchasing piglets was 31.60 yuan/head, up 57.86 yuan [4]. Market Indicators - The slaughter volume was 133,615 heads today, an increase of 1108 heads from yesterday [4]. - The spread between different - sized pigs showed some changes, with the spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increasing by 0.02 yuan/kg [4]. Contract Spreads - LH7 - 9 spread was - 250, up 35; LH9 - 1 spread was 485, down 75; LH9 - 11 spread was 630, down 50; LH11 - 1 spread was - 145, down 25 [4]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: High - level volatile operation [6]. - Arbitrage: LH91 long - spread arbitrage [6]. - Options: Wait and see [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is approaching its supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter an accumulation phase. The raw sugar market is predicted to remain volatile in the long - term, with short - term trends influenced by production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in output. Domestically, the fast sales pace may support sugar prices, but the upcoming large - scale import of sugar may drag prices down. In the short term, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [3]. - Raw sugar is affected by the global supply - demand relaxation expectation and is likely to remain weak in the short term, with potential buying support at lower levels. In contrast, the faster domestic sales rhythm supports spot prices. However, due to the short - term weakness of raw sugar, the rising profit of out - of - quota imports, and the upcoming processing sugar supply pressure, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to passively follow the raw sugar price fluctuations [4]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - International: With Brazil's approaching supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to accumulate. Raw sugar will generally maintain a volatile trend, and short - term trends depend on production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase [3]. - Domestic: The fast sales pace may support sugar prices, but the large - scale import of sugar may drag prices down. Short - term sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar will passively follow raw sugar and remain volatile [5]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. - Options: Use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - 24/25 Northern Hemisphere production increase was less than expected. In the 25/26 season, the Northern Hemisphere is expected to have a restorative increase, and attention should be paid to Brazil's crushing situation [7]. Brazil's Situation - The crushing in the central - southern region of Brazil is lower than the same period last year. Factors such as weather - affected sugarcane yield, lower sugar content, and higher sugar - making ratio should be noted. The sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region remains high [9][10][12]. Other Countries' Situations - Thailand is expected to have a slight increase in production in the new season. In the 24/25 season, sugar production was 10.14 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.4 million tons), and exports from January to April 2025 were 2.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.58 million tons. The 25/26 season is expected to have a slight increase [18][21]. - In India, attention should be paid to the impact of ethanol volume on sugar supply and demand. The 25/26 season may see a restorative increase. In the 24/25 season, sugar production was about 26 million tons. As of May 15, 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 25.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.5% [22][23]. Domestic Situation - In the 25/26 season, domestic sugar production is expected to have a restorative increase. In the 24/25 season, the sales - to - production ratio was relatively high, and inventory was at a low level. In the 25/26 season, domestic sugar is in an increasing cycle, with an expected increase to about 11 million tons (subject to weather changes) [25]. - The rising import profit drives a strong import expectation, and import volume is expected to increase [28][31]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides data on Brazil's central - southern region's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume, sugar production, and sugar - making ratio; the relationship between crude oil and raw sugar prices; Brazil's monthly sugar exports and inventory; India and Thailand's double - week sugar production; and China's monthly sugar production, sales, inventory, and sugar imports [35][42][46][47][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand situation of US soybeans is expected to be relatively loose, but the decline in the US soybean market may be limited due to good new - crop demand [3]. - The high prices in South America reflect optimistic expectations for future demand, but the Brazilian market may face pressure due to the weakening of the real exchange rate [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures market is running strongly due to concerns about future supply, while the spot market is relatively loose, and inventory pressure may continue to be reflected [3]. - The rapeseed meal futures market is running strongly due to concerns about spot supply shortages, but the continuous upward space is relatively limited because of high granular rapeseed meal inventory and average cost - effectiveness [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - US soybean futures prices are generally weak this week. The focus is on the good condition of new US soybean crops and potential negatives from the monthly supply - demand report. The overall supply - demand is expected to be loose, but the decline may be limited due to good new - crop demand. South American prices remain high, but there may be pressure due to the weakening real exchange rate [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures market is strong, reflecting concerns about future supply, while the spot market is relatively loose. Oil mill operating rates are high, and soybean meal提货 has declined, so inventory pressure will continue to be reflected. Spot trading is good, but basis trading is average [3]. - The rapeseed meal futures market is strong due to concerns about spot supply shortages, but the continuous upward space is limited because of high granular rapeseed meal inventory and average cost - effectiveness. Information on imported rapeseed mainly affects the far - month market [4]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to buy at low points [5]. - Arbitrage: M91 positive spread [5]. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Good Growth of New US Soybean Crops, Overall Loose Supply - Demand - This week, the US soybean futures market declined. Good weather in US production areas, slow export progress, and concerns about negative reports are the main factors. As of the week of July 6, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 66%, higher than the 5 - year average of 62.4%. Old - crop sales are good, but new - crop sales are slow. The monthly supply - demand report is relatively negative, but the decline may be limited because the pressure on new - crop ending stocks is not obvious [9]. 3.2.2 High South American Prices, Supply Pressure Remains - Although US soybean prices declined this week, Brazilian prices remain strong. Domestic soybean meal prices are strong, and US soybean price declines have improved domestic crushing margins to some extent, but they are still relatively low. Brazilian export markets are loose, and high prices may reflect optimistic expectations for future exports. Brazilian domestic crushing demand may be supported by biodiesel benefits, but there may be pressure due to the weakening real. Argentine near - month shipping quotes are firm, and far - month quotes have declined, and export pressure may decrease due to tariff adjustments [12]. 3.2.3 Supply Pressure Emerges, Phased Rebound in the Futures Market - Domestic soybean meal futures prices are oscillating strongly this week. Although US soybean prices have declined, Brazilian prices are firm, domestic crushing margins have improved, and concerns about future supply support the domestic market. Oil mill operating rates are still high, soybean arrivals are increasing, and inventory pressure is increasing. Sales are good, and the futures market may be supported as the decline in cost is limited [15]. 3.2.4 Low Rapeseed Meal Inventory, Strong Futures Market - Domestic rapeseed meal futures prices are strong this week, stronger than soybean meal. Spot supply shortages are evident. Domestic rapeseed and crushed rapeseed meal inventories are low, and oil mill operating rates have decreased, tightening supply. The cost - effectiveness of rapeseed meal has improved slightly, but the high granular rapeseed meal inventory limits the upward space. Information on imported rapeseed mainly affects the far - month market [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes 3.3.1 International Market - Data on US soybean weekly sales, export inspections, monthly crushing volume, and weekly crushing profit are presented, as well as data on Brazilian and Argentine monthly export volume and monthly crushing volume [21][23]. 3.3.2 Foreign Premiums - Data on FOB premiums for US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as CNF premiums for rapeseed are shown [25]. 3.3.3 Macro: Exchange Rates and International Shipping - Exchange rate data for USD/CNH, USD/BRL, and USD/ARS are provided, along with Panama - class cargo ship freight prices for different routes and their changes [30][32]. 3.3.4 Supply - Data on soybean and rapeseed import volume and crushing volume are presented [39]. 3.3.5 Demand - Data on soybean meal and rapeseed meal提货 volume are provided [41]. 3.3.6 Inventory - Data on soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventory are shown [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry is currently in a situation where demand is weak during the off - season, and downstream negative feedback is continuously transmitted to the upstream market, suppressing the prices of polyester products [6]. - Different products in the polyester industry chain have different supply - demand and price trends. For example, PX supply is still tight in the short term and is expected to oscillate with the cost side; PTA supply is expected to increase, and its processing fee is significantly compressed; MEG has an inventory accumulation expectation in August - September; short - fiber processing fees are expected to be strongly supported; and bottle - chip processing fees are also relatively strong [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies | Product | Logic Analysis | Trading Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | PX&PTA | PX supply is still tight, with the Vietnamese NSRP 700,000 - ton PX device gradually resuming and the Thai THAI OIL 530,000 - ton PX device shut down for maintenance. PTA supply is expected to increase with device restarts and new installations. Downstream polyester and terminal operations are declining. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Long PX and short PTA; Option: Wait and see [4] | | MEG | Domestic and foreign devices are restarting, and the port inventory is currently low but has an inventory accumulation expectation in August - September. The downstream load is decreasing, but there is short - term market support due to the rebound in coal prices. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [4] | | PF | Short - fiber processing differentials are continuously widening, production and sales are average, and there are still production reduction plans in July. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Short PTA and long PF; Option: Wait and see [4] | | PR | Bottle - chip processing fees are strengthening, and production reduction measures are gradually being implemented. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [4] | 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Polyester Load and Terminal Operations**: As of Friday, the polyester load was 88.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7%. The Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing and weaving operations decreased by 7% and 4% respectively, and the dyeing operation remained at 67%. The fabric orders were weak, and terminal production reduction was accelerating [6]. - **Product - Specific Situations**: - **PX**: Domestic PX load remained basically stable, with a slight increase to 81.3% as of Friday. Overseas load decreased slightly. Long - process device profits narrowed, and short - process device profits fluctuated slightly [16]. - **PTA**: Social inventory increased slightly, and the basis and the September - January spread weakened significantly. Supply is expected to increase, and processing differentials have weakened to the lowest point of the year [18][20]. - **MEG**: Port inventory rebounded, supply increased, the basis weakened, and the September - January spread strengthened. Domestic and foreign device loads increased, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in August - September [22][25]. - **Polyester Products**: Long - filament inventory accumulated, short - fiber profits expanded but downstream operations declined, and bottle - chip processing fees strengthened with production reduction measures being implemented [8][10][12]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **PX**: - **Price**: The report presents the price trends of Asian PX, naphtha, and Brent crude oil, etc. [34]. - **Spread and Profit**: It includes various spreads such as PX - Brent, PX - naphtha, and PX - MX, as well as theoretical profits [36][38]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic and overseas PX loads and the relationship between PX and PTA loads are shown [63][64]. - **PTA**: - **Profit**: It includes profits such as PTA's profit from crude oil, naphtha, and PX [74][75]. - **Supply and Demand**: PTA and polyester loads are presented [77]. - **Inventory**: PTA social inventory, polyester factory raw material inventory, PTA factory raw material inventory, and PTA warehouse receipts are included [79]. - **MEG**: - **Price**: It shows the prices of ethylene glycol spot, coal, methanol, and ethylene [81]. - **Spread**: It includes various spreads such as domestic and foreign spreads, regional spreads, and EO - 1.4EG spread [83]. - **Profit**: It includes profits from oil - based, MTO, ethylene monomer, and coal - based production of ethylene glycol [94][96]. - **Polyester**: - **Profit**: It includes the average profit of long - filaments, short - fiber profit, polyester weighted profit, bottle - chip processing profit, and slice profit [99]. - **Supply**: It shows the loads of polyester, bottle - chips, long - filaments, and short - fibers, as well as inventory days [101][102]. - **Demand**: It includes the loads and inventories of pure - polyester yarn, polyester - cotton yarn, and fabric, as well as export data and domestic consumption data [105][108][109].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Amid the approaching end of the tariff negotiation period, the Trump administration's tariff announcements have reignited market risk aversion, and dovish remarks from Fed officials have raised expectations of a September rate cut, supporting precious metals. Despite short - term market sentiment fluctuations, the substantial increase in US tariffs, along with potential deepening of debt and deficit issues, suggest that precious metals will maintain a high - level oscillatory trend [3][7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - During the week, the US dollar index rebounded slightly from the bottom, while precious metals showed strong resilience. London gold traded between $3280 - $3370 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 0.53%. London silver broke through the previous high set in mid - June, reaching a new high since 2012 at $38.53, trading between $36 - $38.5, with a weekly gain of 4%. Affected by external markets and exchange rates, Shanghai gold traded between 765 - 777 yuan, with a weekly loss of 0.45%, and Shanghai silver traded between 8840 - 9120 yuan, with a weekly gain of 1.36% [3]. - The main trading theme this week was US - centric tariff policies. The 3 - month reciprocal tariff negotiation period is almost over, and the Trump administration has announced a 50% tariff on copper and a 30% tariff on Mexico, the EU, etc. The signing of the "Big and Beautiful" bill is likely to deepen US debt and deficit problems, reigniting market risk aversion. Additionally, dovish remarks from Fed officials have slightly increased market expectations of a September rate cut, allowing silver prices to break through [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Buy gold on dips and hold long silver positions based on the 5 - day moving average. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [9]. Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Data Tracking US Economy - GDP Slowdown and Deteriorating Consumption Expectations - In 2024, the annual GDP reached 2.8%, better than expected. The consumption sector, accounting for two - thirds of the economy, continuously drove GDP growth, with the service industry making the most significant positive contribution, and the investment sector also supporting the economy [20]. - In Q1 2025, the economy slowed down due to tariff factors, recording - 0.3%, worse than the expected - 0.2%, mainly reflecting increased imports and reduced government spending (an 8% decline in defense spending) [21]. - Recent data shows that US residents are more pessimistic about the future economy. The US retail sales month - on - month rate in May was - 0.9%, worse than the expected - 0.1%. The preliminary one - year inflation rate expectation in June was 5.1%, lower than the expected 6.4%, and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in June was 60.5, better than the expected 53.5 [22][23]. US Economy - Divergence of Two PMI Indicators in a Turbulent Background - The final Markit manufacturing PMI in the US in June was 52, slightly lower than the expected 52.2. The S&P Global services PMI was 53.7, better than the expected 53.1. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8, better than the expected 50.5, and the ISM manufacturing PMI was 49 [25]. US Economy - Employment - The seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in June were 147,000, better than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. The average hourly wage annual rate was 3.7%, slightly lower than the expected 3.9%. Employment data has shown that the US job market is temporarily stable, and the unexpected decline in the unemployment rate has slightly adjusted market expectations of a Fed rate cut [33]. Macroeconomic Factors - Inflation - The US unadjusted CPI annual rate in May was 2.4%, slightly lower than the expected 2.5%. The unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.8%, slightly lower than the expected 2.9%. The seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2%, and the seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3%. This set of CPI data showed a moderate decline, approaching the Fed's target, but the market still worried about the impact of tariff frictions, and expectations of a Fed rate cut remained stable after the data release [39]. Chapter 3: Precious Metal Fundamental Data Tracking ETF and CFTC Positions No specific analysis of the data in the text, only the presentation of relevant charts. Gold - Supply and Demand - In 2024, the total global gold supply increased slightly by 1% year - on - year to 4974 tons, with mine production at 3661 tons (basically flat year - on - year) and recycled gold at 1370 tons (up 11% year - on - year). The total gold demand was 4554 tons, up 1% year - on - year, with investment demand growing by 25% to 1180 tons, a four - year high. Gold consumption in technology increased by 21 tons (+7%), while gold jewelry consumption hit a record low at 1877 tons, down 9% year - on - year. Global central banks bought 1044.6 tons of gold in 2024, exceeding 1000 tons for the third consecutive year [45]. - For 2025, the World Gold Council predicts that gold supply will increase again. Investment in gold ETFs, over - the - counter trading, and futures will be favored. Central banks may buy over 1000 tons of gold again. Gold jewelry demand may be pressured, while technology - related gold demand should remain stable [45]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - Since 2022, global central banks have been on a gold - buying spree, with purchases reaching 1082 tons in 2022, 1037 tons in 2023, and 1045 tons in 2024. Developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India have been active buyers [54]. - In Q3 2024, central bank gold - buying activities slowed down to 186 tons, but in Q4, global central banks bought 333 tons of gold, a 54% year - on - year and 79% quarter - on - quarter increase. China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for five consecutive months since November 2024 [57]. Silver - Global Supply and Demand Balance - In 2024, the global silver supply was 31573 tons, up 2% year - on - year, and the global demand was 36208 tons, down 3% from the previous year. The demand mainly included 21166 tons of industrial silver (6146 tons of photovoltaic silver), 6491 tons of silver jewelry, 1686 tons of silverware, and 5938 tons of investment. The supply - demand gap was 4634 tons [59]. - For 2025, the World Silver Association expects the supply to continue growing by 2% to 32055 tons. Industrial silver demand is expected to change little, with photovoltaic silver remaining at around 6000 tons. The supply - demand gap is expected to narrow to 3658 tons [59]. Silver Inventory - The total visible silver inventory of major global exchanges, including LBMA, Comex, SHFE, and SGE, has rebounded from the historical low. Traders are moving silver from London due to concerns about US tariffs on silver [65].

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 14, 2025 [2] IM Futures Market Summary - IM main contract dropped 0.3% to close at 6302.2 points [5] - Total trading volume of four IM contracts was 132,782 lots, down 134,671 lots from the previous day; total open interest was 326,601 lots, down 28,320 lots [5] - IM main contract was at a discount of 160.11 points, down 18.81 points from the previous day; annualized basis rate was -13.64% [5] Daily Quotes | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 1000 | 6462.31 | 0.02% | 24,206 | -14% | 302.6 billion | -14% | - | - | - | | IM2507 | 6442.20 | -0.20% | 37,369 | -46% | 48.2 billion | -46% | 58,996 | -14,229 | 91 | | IM2508 | 6373.40 | -0.29% | 10,738 | -36% | 13.7 billion | -36% | 24,530 | 2,724 | 38 | | IM2509 | 6302.20 | -0.30% | 71,184 | -52% | 89.8 billion | -51% | 168,013 | -13,493 | 254 | | IM2512 | 6120.80 | -0.28% | 13,491 | -60% | 16.5 billion | -60% | 75,062 | -3,322 | 110 | [3] Basis and Premium/Discount | Contract | Closing Price | Maturity Date | Remaining Days | Dividend Value | Premium/Discount Points | Premium/Discount Rate | Annualized Premium/Discount Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot | 6462.31 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Current Month | 6442.20 | 2025-07-18 | 4 | 4.00 | -20.11 | -0.3% | -22.8% | | Next Month | 6373.40 | 2025-08-15 | 32 | 8.58 | -88.91 | -1.5% | -15.4% | | First Quarter | 6302.20 | 2025-09-19 | 67 | 9.78 | -160.11 | -2.7% | -13.6% | | Second Quarter | 6120.80 | 2025-12-19 | 158 | 10.58 | -341.51 | -5.7% | -12.8% | [14] IF Futures Market Summary - IF main contract dropped 0.33% to close at 3985.8 points [24] - Total trading volume of four IF contracts was 80,048 lots, down 83,463 lots from the previous day; total open interest was 263,468 lots, down 19,160 lots [24] - IF main contract was at a discount of 31.87 points, down 10.46 points from the previous day; annualized basis rate was -4.29% [24] Daily Quotes | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4017.67 | 0.07% | 20,792 | -21% | 32.14 billion | -28% | - | - | - | | IF2507 | 4009.00 | -0.29% | 28,382 | -47% | 34.2 billion | -47% | 49,850 | -12,573 | 72 | | IF2508 | 3995.40 | -0.30% | 6,951 | -23% | 8.3 billion | -23% | 15,737 | 2,405 | 23 | | IF2509 | 3985.80 | -0.33% | 37,589 | -56% | 45.0 billion | -56% | 150,188 | -8,205 | 216 | | IF2512 | 3955.20 | -0.41% | 7,126 | -56% | 8.5 billion | -56% | 47,693 | -787 | 68 | [23] Basis and Premium/Discount | Contract | Closing Price | Maturity Date | Remaining Days | Dividend Impact | Premium/Discount Points | Premium/Discount Rate | Annualized Premium/Discount Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot | 4017.67 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Current Month | 4009.00 | 2025-07-18 | 4 | 8.71 | -8.67 | -0.2% | -15.8% | | Next Month | 3995.40 | 2025-08-15 | 32 | 16.71 | -22.27 | -0.6% | -6.2% | | First Quarter | 3985.80 | 2025-09-19 | 67 | 19.57 | -31.87 | -0.8% | -4.3% | | Second Quarter | 3955.20 | 2025-12-19 | 158 | 19.57 | -62.47 | -1.6% | -3.6% | [32] IC Futures Market Summary - IC main contract dropped 0.39% to close at 5897.6 points [41] - Total trading volume of four IC contracts was 66,406 lots, down 57,299 lots from the previous day; total open interest was 227,301 lots, down 14,672 lots [41] - IC main contract was at a discount of 123.26 points, down 16.58 points from the previous day; annualized basis rate was -11.22% [42] Daily Quotes | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 500 | 6020.86 | -0.10% | 18,928 | -15% | 22.63 billion | -14% | - | - | - | | IC2507 | 6008.40 | -0.30% | 28,123 | -42% | 3.38 billion | -42% | 52,714 | -13,063 | 76 | | IC2508 | 5951.40 | -0.36% | 9,438 | -16% | 1.13 billion | -16% | 22,340 | 3,845 | 32 | | IC2509 | 5897.60 | -0.39% | 22,467 | -53% | 2.66 billion | -53% | 94,404 | -4,713 | 134 | | IC2512 | 5774.60 | -0.43% | 6,378 | -61% | 0.74 billion | -61% | 57,843 | -741 | 80 | [41] Basis and Premium/Discount | Contract | Closing Price | Maturity Date | Remaining Days | Dividend Value | Premium/Discount Points | Premium/Discount Rate | Annualized Premium/Discount Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot | 6020.86 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Current Month | 6008.40 | 2025-07-18 | 4 | 2.37 | -12.46 | -0.2% | - | | Next Month | 5951.40 | 2025-08-15 | 32 | 10.36 | -69.46 | -1.2% | - | | First Quarter | 5897.60 | 2025-09-19 | 67 | 12.06 | -123.26 | -2.0% | -11.2% | | Second Quarter | 5774.60 | 2025-12-19 | 158 | 18.61 | -246.26 | -4.1% | - | [45] IH Futures Market Summary - IH main contract dropped 0.5% to close at 2747.4 points [56] - Total trading volume of four IH contracts was 41,336 lots, down 49,239 lots from the previous day; total open interest was 96,055 lots, down 14,582 lots [56] - IH main contract was at a discount of 10.41 points, down 5.24 points from the previous day; annualized basis rate was -2.03% [57] Daily Quotes | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2757.81 | 0.04% | 5,149 | -33% | 9.00 billion | -38% | - | - | - | | IH2507 | 2751.80 | -0.46% | 14,360 | -49% | 1.19 billion | -49% | 24,607 | -6,696 | 24 | | IH2508 | 2748.60 | -0.53% | 2,702 | -28% | 0.22 billion | -28% | 4,169 | 221 | 4 | | IH2509 | 2747.40 | -0.50% | 21,777 | -58% | 1.80 billion | -58% | 56,656 | -7,554 | 56 | | IH2512 | 2750.00 | -0.48% | 2,497 | -61% | 0.21 billion | -61% | 10,623 | -553 | 11 | [56] Basis and Premium/Discount | Contract | Closing Price | Maturity Date | Remaining Days | Dividend Value | Premium/Discount Points | Premium/Discount Rate | Annualized Premium/Discount Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot | 2757.81 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Current Month | 2751.80 | 2025-07-18 | 4 | 7.91 | -6.01 | -0.2% | -15.9% | | Next Month | 2748.60 | 2025-08-15 | 32 | 11.36 | -9.21 | -0.3% | -3.7% | | First Quarter | 2747.40 | 2025-09-19 | 67 | 12.15 | -10.41 | -0.4% | -2.0% | | Second Quarter | 2750.00 | 2025-12-19 | 158 | 12.15 | -7.81 | -0.3% | -0.7% | [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium term, the prices of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) are bearish. In the short term, the commodity atmosphere is warm, and the prices of plastic PP are oscillating. After the macro - sentiment weakens, they are still regarded as bearish [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In the third quarter, PP and PE still face significant production capacity release pressure, which eases in the fourth quarter. The expected new production capacity of standard - grade PE in the second half of the year is only 500,000 tons, with a reduced pressure compared to the first half. However, supply is not tightening as the high - level maintenance in the first half may lead to a rebound in the operation rate of existing facilities in the second half. Terminal demand is weak year - on - year, and there are no strong factors to reverse the weak demand, so there is a lack of upward momentum [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: - **Unilateral Trading**: In the medium term, prices are bearish. In the short term, due to the warm commodity atmosphere, plastic PP prices are oscillating and will turn bearish after the macro - sentiment weakens. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily on the sidelines. - **Options**: Temporarily on the sidelines [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Inventory**: This week, both PE and PP inventories increased. PE total inventory rose by 34,000 tons to 1.054 million tons, and PP total inventory increased by 18,000 tons to 533,000 tons [6][8]. - **Production Capacity Release**: In the second half of the year, the estimated new PP production capacity is 3.15 million tons, and the new PE production capacity is 2.05 million tons for the 2509 contract and 800,000 tons for the 2601 contract. The release of linear low - density polyethylene (LL) production capacity slows down significantly in the second half of the year [9]. - **Demand**: The demand for PE and PP is still weak year - on - year. The PE pipe industry's operating rate decreased by 3 percentage points to 29% this week, and the BOPP and injection - molding industries of PP saw their operating rates drop by 1 percentage point to 58% and 44% respectively [12][13][14]. 3.3 PE Weekly Data Tracking - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various PE products and related raw materials showed different changes. For example, the Brent spot price increased by 2.5% week - on - week, and the oil - based PE profit increased by 8.5 [24]. - **Sino - US PE Relationship**: China is a net importer of PE. In 2024, the apparent demand for PE was 41.61 million tons, with an import volume of 13.85 million tons and an import dependence of 33%. The import volume from the US was 2.39 million tons, accounting for 17.2% of total imports and 5.7% of apparent demand [27]. - **Profit**: The profits of different production methods of PE, such as oil - based and coal - based, showed different trends. The oil - based PE profit increased by 8.5 week - on - week [24]. - **Inventory**: PE inventory increased this week, with the total inventory rising by 34,000 tons to 1.054 million tons [8]. - **Production and Operation**: The current PE operating load is 74.68%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous period [46]. - **Import and Export**: This week, the PE import market continued the situation of weak supply and demand. The supply of import offers and quotas remained low, and the demand was weak, resulting in a light trading atmosphere [55]. 3.4 PP Weekly Data Tracking - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various PP products and related raw materials also changed. For example, the Brent spot price increased by 2.48% week - on - week, and the PP CFR China price remained unchanged [66]. - **Sino - US PP Relationship**: China is a net importer of PP. In 2024, the apparent demand for PP was 39.37 million tons, with an import volume of 367,000 tons and an import proportion of 9%. The import volume from the US was 39,400 tons, accounting for 1.07% of total imports and 0.1% of apparent demand. The cost - end propane of PP has a high dependence on the US [69]. - **Profit**: The profits of different production methods of PP, such as oil - based, CTP, and PDH, showed different trends. The oil - based PP profit increased by 58 [66]. - **Inventory**: PP inventory increased this week, with the total inventory rising by 18,000 tons to 533,000 tons [8]. - **Production and Operation**: This week, the operating load rate of domestic PP plants was 77.42%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous week and 3.76 percentage points from the same period last year [87]. - **Import and Export**: In terms of imports, overseas suppliers were cautious, and the offers were few and higher than the domestic market level, resulting in few transactions. In terms of exports, due to sufficient supply from the Middle East and emerging regions, China's PP exports had difficulty in getting large - volume orders [94][96].