| 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | 二、冷库去库速度加快 | 3 | | 三、春节前备货开启 苹果需求尚可 | 5 | | 四、进出口情况 | 7 | | 五、替代品情况 | 8 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 9 | | 免责声明 | 10 | 农产品板块研发报告 2026 年 1 月 30 日 去库速度加快 苹果需求尚可 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 期货方面，1 月份苹果期货主连价格震荡略偏强，价格重心有所上移， 价格重心由之前的 8900-9200 元/吨附近上移至 9400-9700 元/吨的价格区 间震荡。苹果期货价格重心走高的主要原因是今果季苹果入库量低、冷库果 质量偏差以及苹果仓单的制成成本偏高。 【市场展望】 基本面分析：供应端，今年苹果冷库库存低以及质量差，目前冷库苹果库存处 于近些年次低位，供应略偏紧。需求端，今年春节时间较晚，节前备货行情启动， 目前来看需求尚可。成本端，今年苹果仓单成本较高，从 1 ...

交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：李轩怡 电 话：13164701108 邮 箱： lixuanyi_qh@chinastock.com.cn 期货从业资格证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：F0018403 能化板块研发报告 2026 年 1 月 30 日 玻碱节后库存承压，价格偏弱运行 第一部分 前言概要 【纯碱】 在去美元化背景下，1 月有色及贵金属加速上涨，断崖式领涨于商品市场。本轮 商品价格普涨更像是随着全球金属价格上涨而出现的输入性通胀，但若上游资源价格 涨价过快，下游涨价能否顺畅传导，还是会进一步缩减需求有待观察，但这部分担忧 的计价预计会延迟到临近春节或节后释放。市场对春季商品普涨行情有一定期待，在 当前估值下对节后累库计价也比较谨慎。但随着春节的临近，库存压力将会愈发突出， 若宏观情绪边际走弱，价格易跌难涨。 1 月纯碱新增产能陆续提负，湖北新都，博源二线新增产能提量，逐步对纯碱供 应形成压力。2 月份预计 2 条浮法玻璃产线放水冷修，光伏玻璃产能或变动不大，重 碱用量预计下滑，春节假期期间部分轻碱下游用户放假，下游需求减少。通胀计价下 商品普涨，但传导上 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International LNG: In the short - term, supply disruptions and strong heating demand support prices, but further upside is limited. Long - term supply will increase, and prices will decline after winter. In February, it maintains the view of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with Europe stronger than Asia [6][53]. - US HH: Short - term price surges are due to cold snaps. After the cold snap, supply and demand will ease. Prices are closely related to temperature. In February, it maintains the view of near - term strength and long - term weakness [6][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - International LNG: Prices rebounded sharply in January. TTF rose nearly 35% from $9.7 per MMBTU to over $13 per MMBTU, driven by cold weather and geopolitical tensions [5]. - US HH: Prices had a roller - coaster ride. In early January, they dropped to around $3 per MMBTU due to warm weather and high production. Then, they soared to $7.46 per MMBTU on January 19th due to cold snap expectations [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - International LNG: Short - term supply disruptions and strong heating demand support prices, but further upside is restricted. Long - term supply growth and reduced demand after winter will lead to price declines [6]. - US HH: Cold snaps cause short - term price spikes. After the cold snap, supply and demand will improve. Prices are temperature - dependent, and in February, the market is expected to be near - strong and far - weak [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Short HH second - quarter contracts; short TTF or JKM third - quarter contracts. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - International LNG: Prices rebounded in January due to cold expectations, low inventory, and geopolitical concerns. The first - line price rose from about $9.3 per MMBTU to a maximum of $15 per MMBTU [11]. - US HH: Prices had a V - shaped reversal in January. They fell in the first half due to mild weather and high production, then soared in the last two weeks due to cold snap expectations and a short - squeeze [11]. 3.2.2 US Market Fundamentals - Supply: As of January 28th, the average daily dry - gas production in January was about 110.6 billion cubic feet, down 2.6% from the previous month but up 6.6% year - on - year. After the cold snap on January's end, supply dropped to about 96 billion cubic feet per day, a nearly 16% decline from the monthly high [15][17]. - Demand: As of January 28th, the average daily domestic consumption in January was about 109.3 billion cubic feet, down 5.2% year - on - year. After the cold snap, daily demand reached about 140 billion cubic feet [15]. - Inventory: As of January 23rd, the total natural - gas inventory was 2823 billion cubic feet, up 9.8% year - on - year and 5.3% higher than the five - year average [16]. 3.2.3 International LNG Market Fundamentals - Europe: As of January 26th, the inventory level was 513.6 TWh, down 20.3% year - on - year, only 44.9%. The inventory consumption was faster in January. Local production decreased slightly, while imports reached a record high. Industrial demand did not recover, and gas - power demand growth was not obvious. The 2 - month cold expectation is strong, and there is no obvious expectation of wind - power expansion [25][27]. - China: In 2025, production increased 6.3% year - on - year, and imports decreased 2.9%. In December, production and imports increased year - on - year. As of January 23rd, LNG receiving - station and storage - reservoir inventory levels were higher than last year [31]. - Japan and South Korea: Japan's average daily imports in January were expected to be about 204,300 tons, up 2.3% month - on - month but down 4.7% year - on - year. As of January 23rd, the utility LNG inventory was 2.26 million tons. South Korea's average daily imports in January were expected to be about 142,100 tons, down 5.6% month - on - month and flat year - on - year. As of December, the LNG inventory was about 3.3 million tons, close to last year's level [32]. 3.2.4 Weather Forecast - China: North China will warm up slightly and then cool down, with overall temperatures lower than average in the next month. East China will be warm in early February and slightly cooler than normal in late February. South China's temperatures will be slightly higher than average in February [41]. - Japan and South Korea: They will warm up in early February and then cool down again, with overall temperatures slightly colder than average in the next month [41]. - US: It will remain cold in early February, and temperatures will be significantly lower than average after the cold snap. The cold expectation is strong in February [41]. - Europe: Northwest Europe will be slightly colder than average in the next two weeks and extremely cold in mid - February. Central Europe will cool down sharply in early February, warm up briefly but still be colder than normal. Italy's wind power will be strong in the short - term, and Germany's will be weak in February [41]. 3.2.5 Market Outlook - International LNG Market: In the short - term, supply disruptions and strong demand support prices, but further upside is limited. Long - term supply will increase, and prices will decline after winter. In February, it maintains the view of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with Europe stronger than Asia [53]. - US Market: Short - term price spikes are due to cold snaps. After the cold snap, supply and demand will ease. Prices are temperature - dependent. In the second quarter, the market situation depends on post - winter inventory levels [54].

| × | | --- | | 免责声明 15 | | --- | 能化板块研发报告 基本面弱势维持，地缘仍为主要利多驱动 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 高硫燃料油 1 月上旬价格跟随原油成本上行，高硫裂解维持-10 至-7 美金/桶环比低位，同比中位，体现出其在一季度高库存弱需求的弱季节性 基本面现状。1 月下旬，伊朗地缘局势及俄罗斯制裁加剧，地缘动荡及关税 威胁均可能导致大量燃料油滞留在供应地，市场利多情绪增长。 低硫燃料油 1 月整体跟随原油成本波动，自身供应增长同时需求无驱 动。Al-Zour 产能回归后低硫生产及出口达到历史新高。Dangote 炼厂汽 油装置 1 月整月处于检修状态，低硫出口也相应增长，新加坡低硫库存累 积。裂解维持在 3 至 5 美金/桶，同比极低位震荡；贴水环比上月上行约 2 美金/吨但也处于同期最低位水平。 【市场展望】 高硫燃料油裂解受到市场需求抬升及地缘供应担忧的支撑而上行至同 期高位，但一季度高库存弱需求基本面现状仍存，重点关注伊朗及俄罗斯主 要供应地区近端的物流变化情况。低硫燃料油供应充裕维持，关注寒潮背景 下相较于天然气的经济性暂无强支撑出现。地缘仍为最主要利多 ...

| × | | --- | | 免责声明 11 | | --- | 能化板块研发报告 成本支撑，沥青市场价格高位震荡 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 1 月沥青走势跟随原油成本起跌外，还拥有自己委内原料缺口和成本抬 升的独立矛盾。1 月 3 日委内发展为正面冲突，5 号沥青盘面高开后走低。 1 月中旬伊朗冲突持续升级，原油成本抬升，沥青盘面及市场价格跟随高位 震荡。期间委内开始向美国供油，并由国际大贸易商向欧洲及中印炼厂询价 出售，原料短缺矛盾交易落地，市场交易计价整体原料贴水成本抬升。国内 市场，炼厂低负荷和低库存支撑现货市场价格。 【市场展望】 原油宽幅震荡，整体市场仍聚焦地缘交易，短期内沥青主力 03 合约跟 随强势震荡。2-3 月基建项目逐步复工需求回升，沥青库存低位背景下，低 价原料库存逐步消化，新贴水原料成交价上行，市场可能出现供应偏紧与需 求回暖的叠加共振，06 合约预期逢低看多。 【策略推荐】 1.单边：偏强震荡，回调做多不建议追多。 2.套利：观望。 3.期权：观望。 沥青 1 月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 风险提示：美国与委内局势的发展、宏观政策因素扰动。 银河期货 研究员：吴晓 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, Henan peanuts rose while Northeast peanuts fell, narrowing the price difference between the two regions. The supply of oil peanuts was sufficient, the inventory of peanut oil increased, and the profit of peanut oil mills was still good, but the profit margin declined. The opening rate of oil mills increased significantly, and the peanut inventory also increased. The spot price of peanuts was relatively strong, the number of warehouse receipts was still low, and the cost of warehouse receipts was between 7,900 - 8,000 yuan/ton. The peanut futures contracts 03 and 05 bottomed out and rebounded [4]. - In February 2026, the spot price of peanuts will be relatively stable, the purchase of oil mills will also be relatively stable, and the profit of oil mills will remain high. Due to the high price of soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil will still fluctuate at a high level, while the prices of peanut meal and peanut oil will be relatively stable, and the inventory of oil mills will continue to increase. After February, the import volume of peanuts will increase. It is rumored that the import price of Senegalese peanuts is relatively low, but the cost of warehouse receipts is still high. It is expected that the peanut futures contracts 03 and 05 will fluctuate between 7,800 - 8,200 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Peanut Situation - Global peanut production has increased, but peanut imports have decreased significantly. According to FAS data, the global peanut production in 2025 is expected to be 51.78 million tons, including 19 million tons in China, 7.35 million tons in India, 3.4 million tons in the United States, 1.8 million tons in Senegal, and 1 million tons in Sudan. The latest data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that the global peanut production in 2025 is 52.36 million tons, with about 19 million tons in China, 7.5 million tons in India, 3.39 million tons in the United States, and 5.24 million tons in Nigeria. In 2025, the global peanut crushing volume was 19.3 million tons, accounting for 37.3%, and the global export volume of peanuts was 4.2 million tons, accounting for 8.1%. Due to the lower - than - expected imports from Sudan and Senegal, China's peanut imports were significantly lower than last year [9]. 3.2 Domestic Peanut Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Sufficient Supply of Oil Peanuts and Narrowing Price Difference between Northeast and Henan Peanuts - In January, the price of Henan peanuts rose, while the price of Northeast peanuts fell, narrowing the price difference between the two regions. The price of Zhengyang peanuts in Henan rose from 3.6 yuan/jin at the beginning of January to 3.7 yuan/jin at the end of the month; the price of Shandong peanuts remained stable at 4.2 yuan/jin; the price of peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin and Changtu, Liaoning fell from 4.7 yuan/jin at the beginning of January to 4.6 yuan/jin at the end of the month; the price of Huayu 23 peanuts in Xingcheng, Liaoning remained stable at 4.35 yuan/jin. In January, peanuts were gradually put on the market, the purchase volume of oil mills increased, the spot price of Henan peanuts rose, and the reluctance of Northeast farmers to sell loosened, causing the spot price of peanuts to fall. Currently, it is the stage of large - scale purchase by oil mills, and the price of oil peanuts depends on the purchase rhythm of peanut oil mills, with the purchase price of oil mills stable at 6,800 - 7,600 yuan/ton. It is expected that in February, the price of Henan peanuts will continue to rise, while the price of Northeast peanuts will be relatively weak, and the price difference between the two regions will continue to narrow [14]. 3.2.2 Significant Decrease in Imported Peanuts and Increase in Imported Peanut Oil - In December 2025, 24,000 tons of peanut kernels were imported, and from January to December, 252,000 tons of peanut kernels were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 65.6%. Among them, 17,000 tons were imported from Sudan, 18,000 tons from Senegal, 40,000 tons of shelled peanuts from the United States, 61,000 tons from India, and 39,000 tons from Argentina. From January to December, the cumulative export of peanut kernels was 212,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 47%. According to the seasonal pattern of imports, the traditional peak season for imported peanuts is from March to July after the Chinese New Year. However, due to the low domestic peanut price, it is expected that the import volume of peanuts in 2026 will still be low. It is rumored that the import cost of Senegalese peanuts is 7,400 yuan/ton (with about 3% impurities). In 2025, the cumulative import of peanut oil from January to December was 402,000 tons, 58% higher than last year. The peanut kernels converted from imported peanut oil (45% oil yield) totaled 1.145 million tons, lower than the 1.298 million tons converted last year. Due to the weak domestic consumption of peanut oil, it is expected that the import of peanut kernels in February will still be low, and the import of peanut oil will remain high [23]. 3.2.3 Good Profit of Peanut Oil Mills and Continuous Increase in Peanut Inventory of Oil Mills - Due to the large - scale sales by farmers, the supply of oil peanuts was sufficient and the price was low, so the profit of oil mills was at a high level. As of January 22, the opening rate of peanut oil mills was 47.22%, higher than 26.88% in the previous month and 13.7% last year. The peanut inventory was 177,000 tons, higher than 124,000 tons in the same period of the previous month but lower than 189,000 tons in the same period last year, at a relatively high level in the past. The prices of peanut meal and peanut oil fluctuated little, and the purchase price of peanuts was at a low level, so the profit of oil mills from pressing was high. As of January 22, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills was 190 yuan/ton, lower than 278 yuan/ton in the same period of the previous month but much higher than - 346 yuan/ton in the same period last year. The profit of oil mills mainly comes from peanut oil. Generally, the contribution ratio of peanut oil and peanut meal to the pressing profit is between 2 - 4. As of the end of January, the profit of peanut oil to oil mills was 3.36 times that of peanut meal, and the theoretical break - even price of peanuts was 7,800 yuan/ton. Due to the sufficient supply of oil peanuts, much higher than the same period last year, and the price of oil peanuts will remain at the bottom for a long time, peanut oil mills will still maintain high profits in February [31]. 3.2.4 Expected Increase in New - Crop Planting Costs - In 2025, the peanut planting area increased year - on - year, and the national peanut production was slightly higher than last year. After removing the land rent, most of the planting costs in Henan and other places were 800 yuan/ton. Since some areas in Henan have two crops a year, the planting cost is relatively low. For Jilin and other places, the planting cost including land rent is 1,700 yuan/mu. Calculated at 450 jin/mu (peanut kernels), the cost of peanut kernels in Jilin is 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin. However, due to the high planting income of corn, soybeans, and peanuts in the Northeast region this year, the land rent is also rising. It is currently expected that the land rent per mu will increase by 100 - 200 yuan in the 2026/2027 season, and the peanut planting cost in the Northeast region will be above 4.0 yuan/jin [48]. 3.3后市展望及策略推荐 - In February, the supply of oil peanuts will continue to increase, and the supply will be sufficient. The price of Henan peanuts will continue to rise, while the price of Northeast peanuts will continue to be weak, narrowing the price difference between Northeast and Henan peanuts, as well as the price difference between oil peanuts and common peanuts. The import volume of peanuts is significantly lower than last year. It is rumored that the import price of Senegalese peanuts after the Chinese New Year is 7,400 yuan/ton, and the current warehouse receipt price is between 7,900 - 8,000 yuan/ton, with relatively stable warehouse receipt costs. The prices of peanut oil and peanut meal will remain at a high level, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills will still be good, the peanut inventory of oil mills will continue to increase, and the peanut oil inventory will also increase. It is expected that the price of common peanuts in Henan will fluctuate between 3.6 - 4.0 yuan/jin, and the peanut futures contract 03 is expected to fluctuate between 7,800 - 8,200 yuan/ton [51]. - **Trading Strategies**: - **Unilateral**: Adopt a trading strategy of range - bound thinking for the peanut futures contract 03 between 7,800 - 8,200 yuan/ton [52]. - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [54]. - **Options**: Sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option when the peanut futures price rises [7][54].

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | | | 3 | | 二、基本面情况 | | | 3 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 8 | | | 免责声明 | | | 9 | 农产品板块研发报告 鸡蛋 1 月报 2026 年 1 月 30 节前需求表现较好 蛋价表现较强 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 1 月鸡蛋现货价格走势偏强，主产区均价最高涨至 3.94 元/斤附近后市 场有所补库使得蛋价略有回升，主销区最高涨至 4.22 元/斤附近。 1 月鸡蛋主力期货合约表现偏强，目前供应端变化不大，需求端随着临 近春节各环节开始备货，销区走货偏快，使得蛋价表现偏强，3 月合约最高 涨至 3098 附近。 【市场展望】 临近春节，近期鸡蛋现货整体需求表现较好，现货价格有所上涨，主产 区目前在 3.8 元/斤附近， 主销区在 4.11 元/斤附近。利润情况表现较好， 市场淘汰 ...

| 第一部分 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 1 | 月行情回顾 3 | | 一、股票市场——震荡上行 | 节奏分化 3 | | 二、股指期货——贴水大幅收敛，近月全线升水 | 4 | | 第三部分 后市展望及投资策略 | 7 | | 一、数据提振信心 | 7 | | 二、政策指引稳定 | 8 | | 三、市场承接良好 | 8 | | 四、年报预告向好 | 9 | | 五、后市策略 | 10 | | 风险提示与免责声明 | 11 | | . | | --- | | 1 | 股指期货研发报告 股指期货月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 波动不改上行趋势 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 1 月，A 股市场呈现震荡上行走势，指数间表现节奏略有分化，中证 500 和中证 1000 指数保持上行走势。股指期货较上月大幅收敛，特别是 IC 近 月合约连续出现较大升水，IM 当月合约也开始连续升水。股指期货成交持 仓明显增长，特别是 IC 增长迅猛。这都说明了市场乐观看待后市，持仓信 心增强。 【市 ...

| AN | | --- | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、国际市场 | | 3 | | | | 三、美国 4 | | 四、其他国家 | | 4 | | 五、国内市场 | | 6 | | 第三部分 | | 后市展望及策略推荐 9 | | | | 免责声明 10 | 棉系板块研发报告 棉系 1 月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 基本面有所支撑 棉价震荡偏强 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 1 月棉花期货价格震荡偏强为主，供应端随着新棉加工基本进入尾声， 短期供应相对宽松，新年度市场传闻有减产预期，对棉价有一定支撑；需求 端下游整体订单表现一般，但考虑到临近春节，下游各环节有放假安排，短 期需求对盘面提振有限。 1 月美棉基本面变化不大，预计整体走势仍然以区间震荡为主。 【市场展望】 基本面方面，虽然本年度供应端预计维持宽松局面，但新年度市场传闻 有减产预期，近期陆续有会议对 ...

| 第一部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 一、芳烃板块氛围走强，下旬 PX、TA 增仓上涨 | 3 | | | 二、乙二醇低位反弹，低价对供应变动较为敏感 | 8 | | | 三、临近春节聚酯检修停车增多，江浙终端开机下降 | 10 | | | 四、关于石脑油消费税对化工供给侧的影响 | 12 | | 第二部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 13 | | 免责声明 | | 14 | 聚酯研发报告 聚酯 2 月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 聚酯淡季创新高，需求端跟进不足 【行情回顾】 1 月下旬，PX、TA 期货增仓上涨，估值在去年 12 月末拉升后伴随着一段 时间的震荡回调再次走高。淡季聚酯原料创新高，核心因素就是资金基于 TA 的 投产周期结束，随着行业产能扩张收尾，25 年虹港石化 3 期 250 万吨装置于 6 月投产，三房巷 3 期 320 万吨装置两条线分别于 7、8 月投产，独山能源 4 期 300 万吨装置于 10 月投产，全年新增产能累计 870 万吨，截至目前中国大陆地 区 PTA 产能基数调整至 9209 万吨。PTA2026年迎来投产真 ...