大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 7 月 14 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： Z0018389 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 第一部分 | | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/7/14 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK504 | | 7966 | 0 | 0.00% | 27 | 350.00% | 149 | 4.93% | | PK510 | | 8190 | 20 | 0.24% | 113,094 | 240.72% | 94,364 | -4.07% | | PK601 | | 7994 | 24 | 0.30% | 3,187 | 195.64% | 8,212 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by factors such as tariff policies and inventory changes. The US tariff impact on copper imports is approaching its end, and the supply situation in non - US regions is expected to ease. [5][7] - The alumina market is in a transition from tight balance to structural surplus, but downstream demand and inventory factors will support prices, with imports limiting price rebounds. [13][14] - The electrolytic aluminum market is influenced by macro - tariff concerns and domestic policy expectations. The inventory shows a narrow - range change pattern, and the demand in the off - season may not be too weak. [21][22] - The casting aluminum alloy market is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum and weak downstream demand, with some trading opportunities in arbitrage. [28][29] - The zinc market has a situation of increasing supply and entering the consumption off - season, with prices likely to be under pressure. [33] - The lead market has a supply that is difficult to increase and improving consumption, and short - term prices may fluctuate at a high level. [40][41] - The nickel market is affected by macro - sentiment and policy changes in the Philippines and Indonesia, with prices showing a volatile trend. [44][45] - The stainless - steel market is affected by external demand restrictions and high inventory pressure, with prices expected to be weak. [51][53] - The industrial silicon market may be in a state of supply - demand balance in July. With the reduction of production by leading enterprises and the resumption of production in the southwest, prices have strengthened recently. [60] - The polysilicon market has price fluctuations within a certain range, and traders are advised to adjust their positions according to market rumors. [65][66] - The lithium carbonate market is affected by policy rumors and low - inventory factors, with prices rising sharply in the short - term and expected to return to a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. [70] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai copper 2508 contract closed at 78,400 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its positions by 7,283 lots to 510,300 lots. [2] - Spot: In the East China market, holders actively sold goods, and downstream buying was weaker than last week. In the Guangdong market, inventory increased significantly, and downstream procurement increased due to price drops. In the North China market, consumption was weak. [2] Important Information - CSPT decided not to set a reference price for the third - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee. [3] - Codelco's copper production in the first half of the year increased by 9% year - on - year, and the output of its El Teniente copper mine increased by 14%. [3] - As of July 14, the national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.39 million tons to 14.76 million tons compared with Thursday. [3] Logic Analysis - The US tariff impact on copper imports is approaching its end, and the supply situation in non - US regions is expected to ease. The LME copper inventory has bottomed out, and the price decline has slightly improved market procurement. [5][7] Trading Strategy No specific trading strategy for copper is provided in the report. Alumina Market Review - Futures: The alumina 2509 contract fell by 19 yuan to 3,145 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 8,041 lots to 422,200 lots. [9] - Spot: The northern spot comprehensive price of alumina remained flat, and the prices in most regions were stable, except for a 10 - yuan drop in Xinjiang. [9] Relevant Information - The central government emphasized the construction of a unified national market and the high - quality development of the marine economy. [10] - A Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina procurement price increased by 60 - 70 yuan/ton. [10] - The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased by 4,803 tons on July 14. [11] - The national alumina production capacity was basically stable, with an increase in weekly output and inventory. [11] Logic Analysis - The alumina market is in a transition from tight balance to structural surplus, but downstream demand and inventory factors will support prices, with imports limiting price rebounds. [13] Trading Strategy - Single - side: It is expected that the alumina price will generally fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the supply changes of bauxite in Guinea and the "anti - involution" sentiment. [14] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [15] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [15] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract fell by 300 yuan/ton to 20,415 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 47,247 lots to 644,600 lots. [17] - Spot: The spot price of aluminum ingots in East China, South China, and the Central Plains decreased. [17] Relevant Information - The total inventory of Chinese aluminum ingots increased by 28,000 tons compared with last Thursday. [18] - The basis of aluminum in different regions showed different trends, and the warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased. [18] - China's photovoltaic new - installed capacity in May 2025 increased significantly year - on - year, and the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products in June decreased year - on - year. [18] Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - tariff concerns and domestic policy expectations, the inventory of aluminum ingots shows a narrow - range change pattern, and the demand in the off - season may not be too weak. [21] Trading Strategy - Single - side: The aluminum price may be under pressure in the short - term but should not be overly pessimistic in the long - term. [22] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [22] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [22] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 175 yuan to 19,805 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 562 lots to 9,951 lots. [24] - Spot: The spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in different regions decreased by 100 yuan/ton. [24] Relevant Information - The output of recycled aluminum alloy in June increased, and the cost of the ADC12 industry increased, resulting in a narrowing of profits. [24][25] - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three places increased on July 14. [25] - The weekly output of casting aluminum alloy decreased, and the factory and social inventories showed different trends. [26] - Thailand plans to restrict the establishment and expansion of recycling plants. [26][27] Logic Analysis - Alloy ingot enterprises are restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and downstream die - casting plants have low operating rates. There are some trading opportunities in arbitrage. [28] Trading Strategy - Single - side: The absolute price of aluminum alloy futures is expected to follow the high - pressure trend of aluminum prices. [29] - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price difference between futures and spot is above 400 yuan. [29] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [29] Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai zinc 2508 contract fell 0.67% to 22,250 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index reduced positions by 13,800 lots to 238,300 lots. [31] - Spot: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in the Shanghai market was between 22,180 - 22,300 yuan/ton, and the spot premium continued to decline. [31] Relevant Information - As of July 14, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places increased compared with previous data. [32] Logic Analysis - The domestic zinc supply is increasing, and the consumption is entering the off - season, with prices likely to be under pressure. [33] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short positions can be held. [34] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [36] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [36] Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai lead 2508 contract fell 0.12% to 17,085 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 1,037 lots to 94,800 lots. [38] - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the transaction was average. [38] Relevant Information - As of July 14, the total social inventory of lead ingots increased compared with previous data. [39] - The average operating rate of three - province primary lead smelters decreased last week. [39] Logic Analysis - The supply of lead is difficult to increase, and consumption is improving. Short - term prices may fluctuate at a high level. [40] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short - term lead prices may fluctuate at a high level, and high - selling and low - buying can be carried out within the range. [41] - Arbitrage: Sell put options. [44] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [41] Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2508 fell by 90 yuan to 121,100 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,141 lots. [43] - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the premiums of Russian nickel and electrowinning nickel remained unchanged. [43] Relevant Information - The export of Philippine nickel ore to Indonesia is expected to increase significantly. [45] - GreenMe has solved the problem of refining low - grade nickel ore. [45] Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - sentiment and policy changes in the Philippines and Indonesia, nickel prices show a volatile trend. [44][45] Trading Strategy No specific trading strategy for nickel is provided in the report. Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2508 fell by 30 yuan to 12,715 yuan/ton, and the index reduced positions by 5,271 lots. [47] - Spot: The prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are given. [47] Relevant Information - The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved Hongwang Holdings as a delivery warehouse for stainless - steel futures. [48] - The US imposed tariffs on imports from multiple countries and regions. [48][49][50] Logic Analysis - Affected by external demand restrictions and high inventory pressure, stainless - steel prices are expected to be weak. [51][53] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short - sell when the price is high after the macro - sentiment fades. [54] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [55] - Options: Consider the strategy of selling call options after the price rebounds. [52] Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: Affected by market rumors, the main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 3.27% to 8,695 yuan/ton. [57] - Spot: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton. [58] Relevant Information - A project in Nanchang is expected to increase the total production capacity by 23,679.23 t/a. [59] Logic Analysis - In July, the production of industrial silicon decreased by 20,000 tons. If leading enterprises do not resume production, the supply and demand will be basically balanced. The price has strengthened recently, and the inventory has shifted from factories to traders. [60] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Bullish in the short - term. [61] - Arbitrage: The strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon should stop profiting. [63] - Options: Exit the short position of Si2509 - C - 8500. [63] Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 41,765 yuan/ton, up 0.81%. [64] - Spot: The average price of some polysilicon products decreased. [64] Relevant Information - The price of domestic photovoltaic silicon wafers increased, and the transaction of battery cells began. [65] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon market has many rumors, and prices are expected to fluctuate between 37,000 and 45,000 yuan/ton. [65] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Long - position holders can reduce positions and participate in short - term trading with a light position. [66] - Arbitrage: The strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon should stop profiting. [66] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [66] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The main contract 2509 rose by 2,380 yuan to 66,480 yuan/ton, the index increased positions by 34,081 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 399 tons to 11,204 tons. [67] - Spot: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. [67] Relevant Information - As of the end of June 2025, the number of new - energy vehicles in China increased significantly. [69] - Panasonic postponed the production plan of its battery factory in the US. [69] Logic Analysis - Affected by policy rumors and low - inventory factors, lithium carbonate prices rose sharply in the short - term and are expected to return to a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. [70] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Avoid risks in the short - term and wait for the opportunity to short on the right - hand side. [71] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [72] - Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options. [73]

Report Overview - Report Title: Pulp Weekly Report (Week 2, July 2025) [1] - Analyst: Pan Shengjie from the Commodity Research Institute [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The pulp market fundamentals are stabilizing [3] - The supply - demand relationship in the pulp market has not improved significantly, and weak demand restricts the rebound of pulp prices [4] - Global pulp market shows a growth trend in the past five months, especially the domestic market [4] Summary by Directory Pulp Market Fundamentals - This week, the spot prices of imported wood pulp varied. Imported softwood pulp prices rebounded from the bottom, narrowing the decline of the average price; imported hardwood pulp prices rose due to non - standard basis quotes and low - price reluctance to sell; the supply - demand relationship did not improve significantly, and the demand was weak; imported natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp prices followed the decline of imported softwood pulp prices [4] - From the monthly hardwood pulp balance data, the current fundamentals are favorable for the relative strength of hardwood pulp. The cost support for the hardwood - softwood price spread in July has improved [4] - Trump's new tariff policies push the US economic policy uncertainty index to a record high. The US tariff policy on Brazil may increase Brazil's hardwood pulp exports to other regions and is negative for the basis of Brazilian hardwood pulp. The US tariff on Canada is expected to be negative for the basis of Canadian softwood pulp [4] - As of May, global pulp shipments decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. Softwood pulp shipments decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, while hardwood pulp shipments increased by 3.1% year - on - year. However, the cumulative shipments in 2025 still had a nearly 10% year - on - year increase. The global pulp industry's operating rate was close to 90% for the second consecutive month in May, but it also brought inventory pressure. In May, softwood pulp inventory increased by 5 days to 46 days, and hardwood pulp inventory increased by 4 days to 51 days. The domestic paper - making enterprises' finished - product inventory decreased by 0.2% year - on - year in May, the first year - on - year decrease since April 2024 [4] Impact of Softwood Supply on SP Unilateral - As of May 2025, European bleached softwood kraft pulp inventory decreased by 238,000 tons month - on - month, consumption increased by 269,000 tons month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times. The average value in the past 12 months increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with continuous marginal inventory accumulation for 6 months, which is negative for SP unilateral but with limited impact [11] - Domestic softwood chip imports increased for two consecutive months, reaching 21,000 tons (equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp). Softwood pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months, reaching 821,000 tons. The total long - fiber imports were 832,000 tons, with a 4.3% year - on - year decrease in the cumulative value in the past 6 months, and the decline has been narrowing for 7 months, which is negative for SP unilateral but with limited impact [11] Impact of Hardwood Supply on Hardwood - Softwood Price Spread - As of May 2025, hardwood chip imports increased by 1.289 million tons month - on - month, equivalent to 644,000 tons of pulp; hardwood pulp imports increased by 1.309 million tons month - on - month. Softwood chip imports increased for two consecutive months, reaching 21,000 tons, equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp; softwood pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months, reaching 821,000 tons. The short - fiber to long - fiber import ratio was 2.35 times, with a 10.5% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 12 months, and the growth has been narrowing for 4 months, which is positive for the hardwood - softwood price spread [18] - The use of hardwood pulp in domestic paper decreased by 2.224 million tons month - on - month, and the use of softwood pulp decreased for three consecutive months, reaching 523,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times, with an 8.0% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 9 months, and the growth has been expanding for 8 months, which is positive for the hardwood - softwood price spread [18] Impact of International Pulp and Paper Trade on SP Unilateral - As of May 2025, domestic pulp import value increased by $1.906 billion month - on - month, and the US pulp import value decreased by $308 million month - on - month in April. The combined value (with a one - month lag) was $2.214 billion, with a 3.6% year - on - year decrease in the cumulative value in the past 3 months, and the decline has been expanding for 2 months, which is negative for SP unilateral but with limited impact [23] - The total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million, with a 5.4% year - on - year decrease in the cumulative value in the past 3 months, and the decline has been expanding for 2 months, which is negative for SP unilateral with full impact [23] Impact of Port Inventory on SP Unilateral - As of July 11, 2025, the total inventory of four ports and warehouse receipts was 2.378 million tons, with a 9.3% year - on - year increase, and continuous marginal inventory accumulation for 9 months, which is negative for SP unilateral [29] Impact of Port Inventory on Hardwood - Softwood Price Spread - As of July 11, 2025, the ratio of the four - port inventory to warehouse receipt inventory increased for four consecutive months, reaching 8.94 times. The average value in the past 6 months increased by 60.7% year - on - year, and the marginal inventory decreased for 3 months, which is relatively negative for hardwood pulp [34] Impact of Manufacturing PMI on SP Unilateral - As of June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI increased for two consecutive months, reaching 49.7 points, with a 0.2% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average value, and the growth has been narrowing for 3 months. The US manufacturing PMI increased month - on - month, reaching 49.0 points, with a 1.3% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average value, and the growth has been narrowing for 10 months, which is negative for SP unilateral [42] Impact of Domestic Paper Production and Inventory on SP Unilateral - As of April 2025, domestic paper industry electricity consumption decreased month - on - month, reaching 838 million kWh, with a 0.6% year - on - year increase in the cumulative value in the past 12 months, and the growth has been narrowing for 9 months, which is negative for SP unilateral [50] - Domestic paper industry finished - product inventory increased for four consecutive months, reaching 77.57 billion yuan, with a 5.6% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 12 months, and continuous marginal inventory accumulation for 13 months, which is negative for SP unilateral [50] Impact of US Economic Policy and International Oil Price on SP Unilateral - As of July 2025, the US economic policy uncertainty index increased month - on - month, reaching 435.3 points, with an 82.8% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 12 months, and the growth has been narrowing. Brent crude oil price decreased month - on - month, reaching $69.1 per barrel, with a 20.9% year - on - year decrease in the average value in the past 3 months, and the decline has been narrowing, with marginal strengthening, which is positive for SP price [56] Impact of International Trade and US Dollar Index on SP Unilateral - In May, China's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching $529 billion, with a 2.1% year - on - year increase in the cumulative value in the past 6 months, and the growth has been narrowing for 2 months, which is positive for SP valuation [57] - In June, the real broad - based US dollar index decreased for five consecutive months, reaching 114.9 points, with a 5.7% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 9 months, and continuous marginal increase for 16 months, which is negative for SP unilateral. The general cycle of the US dollar index is 22 months [63]

橡胶板块2025年07月第2周报 大宗商品研究所 潘盛杰 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 总结 GALAXYFUTURES 1 ◼ 本周新增焦点：橡胶板块估值、烟片胶基差，以及对EUDR的展望。 ◼ 周四，橡胶板块强势上涨。传可能得原因是烟片收储、东南亚暴雨、EUDR的执行。对于收储和暴雨，时间点和数据变化均不符合。而对于EUDR，一方面没 有收集到相关信息，另一方面从欧洲逐渐淡化了环保力度看，也不太可能提前执行EUDR政策。那么回头看橡胶本身的估值：在经过了周四的大幅上涨后，橡 胶板块在商品中的排名并没有明显提升，说明上涨是普遍现象，属于宏观因素。 ◼ 本周宏观环境呈现多重积极变化，为资本市场企稳向好奠定了基础。首先，外部环境方面，全球贸易摩擦强度持续减弱，关税战相关不确定性显著降低，为国 内经济复苏创造了更稳定的外部条件。其次，国内政策层面，货币政策保持稳健基调，结构性工具精准发力，产业政策聚焦高质量发展，对科技创新和绿色转 型的支持路径清晰，增强了政策预期的稳定性。 ◼ 不过，从合成橡胶的角度，上下游高频数据表现良好。丁二烯与顺丁橡胶环比减产、累库，下游轮胎开工回升、库存去化。故周内BR-RU价差继 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 7 月 10 日 【粕类日报】短期扰动有限 盘面震荡运行 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/7/10 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 2993 | - 4 | 天津 | -70 | -90 | 2 0 | | 东莞 | 0 5 | 2704 | 0 | | -160 | -160 | 0 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2954 | 7 | | -150 | -170 | 2 0 | | | | | | 日照 | -140 | -160 | 2 0 | | 菜粕 | 0 1 | 2316 | 3 | 南通 | -201 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall spot price of live pigs showed a fluctuating trend. After the previous continuous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for selling increased, leading to a price decline. However, the overall decline space was limited as the market's resistance to low prices increased. The market supply improved in the short term, and the upward momentum of prices was restricted. The follow - up supply pressure was still expected to exist due to the relatively high inventory, making it difficult for the spot price to continue rising [2]. - The live pig futures showed a fluctuating downward trend. After the previous rapid increase, the market's bullish sentiment declined, and the futures entered a high - level fluctuation state. It was expected to be affected by the weakening spot price. The short - term monthly spread was expected to be mainly volatile due to the lack of obvious driving factors [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Information - **Price Comparison**: The average price of live pigs on July 10, 2025, was 14.14 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous day. Most regions saw price declines, with only Hunan and Jiangxi having slight increases. The prices of sows remained unchanged at 1621 yuan, while the prices of piglets rose to 439 yuan, an increase of 8 yuan from the previous week [2]. - **Profit Situation**: The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising was 119.72 yuan/head, an increase of 69.48 yuan compared to the previous day. The profit for purchasing piglets was - 26.26 yuan/head, an increase of 105.45 yuan [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The slaughter volume was 132,166 heads, an increase of 89 heads from the previous day. The price difference between large and medium - sized pigs and standard pigs changed, with the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs increasing by 0.02 yuan [2]. Futures Information - **Futures Price**: The futures prices of LH01, LH03, LH05, LH09, and LH11 increased, while LH07 decreased. For example, LH01 rose from 13,675 yuan to 13,775 yuan, and LH07 fell from 13,960 yuan to 13,950 yuan [2]. - **Contract Spread**: The spread of LH7 - 9 decreased by 120 yuan, while LH9 - 1, LH9 - 11 increased by 10 yuan and 15 yuan respectively, and LH11 - 1 decreased by 5 yuan [2]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: It was mainly in a high - level volatile operation [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Conducted a positive spread arbitrage for LH91 [6]. - **Options**: Adopted a wait - and - see strategy [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, affected by macro - sentiment, zinc prices may fluctuate. With continuous supply expansion and the downstream entering the off - season, domestic social inventories are expected to gradually accumulate, and zinc prices may face downward pressure [4]. - For trading strategies, one can consider short - selling zinc at high prices while being vigilant about macro risks, and temporarily hold off on arbitrage operations [4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Industry Supply and Demand** - **Mine End**: This week, the domestic zinc concentrate market remained stable. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price was flat at 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 1 US dollar/dry ton to 66.25 US dollars/dry ton. In July, although some domestic mines were under maintenance, the impact on production was small. Domestic zinc concentrate production is expected to increase, and zinc concentrate processing fees still have room for an upward adjustment [4]. - **Smelting End**: In July, domestic smelters had both maintenance and restart operations. Overall, domestic refined zinc production may increase by about 12,000 tons month - on - month. Recently, the processing fees for domestic zinc concentrates have increased significantly, the profit margins of smelters have expanded, and with sufficient domestic zinc concentrate supply, the enthusiasm of smelters to start production has increased significantly. Refined zinc supply is expected to increase [4]. - **Consumption**: Against the backdrop of the traditional off - season for zinc consumption from July to August, terminal orders have decreased significantly, and the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to start production has declined. Coupled with the relatively high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, it is expected that the downstream procurement sentiment will be poor in the near future. However, the continuation of the domestic "trade - in" policy may still boost consumption to some extent. Attention should be paid to the consumption situations in infrastructure, automotive, and home appliance sectors [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of July 3, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 82,400 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons from June 26 and an increase of 1,800 tons from June 30. The LME zinc inventory (on July 4) was 112,300 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons from June 27 [4]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral Trading**: One can consider short - selling zinc in small quantities at high prices and be vigilant about macro risks. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily hold off on operations [4]. Chapter 2: Market Data - **Spot Premium**: Information on the basis situation in major consumption regions and LME cash - 3M is provided [6]. - **Absolute Price and Monthly Spread, and Trading Volume and Open Interest of Shanghai Zinc**: Related data on these aspects are presented [12]. - **Social Inventory**: Information on social inventory, bonded area inventory, LME inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, warrants, and LME inventory by region is included [14][15]. Chapter 3: Fundamental Data - **Zinc Ore Supply** - **Production**: From January to April, global zinc concentrate production was 393,680 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.07%. Among them, overseas zinc concentrate production was 274,180 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.23%, and Chinese zinc concentrate production was 119,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. In May 2025, SMM zinc concentrate production was 325,000 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.17% and a year - on - year increase of 3.17%. In June 2025, the expected zinc concentrate production was 342,600 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.42%. In June, the monthly raw material inventory of smelters was 448,000 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.41% and a year - on - year increase of 99.11%. This week, the zinc concentrate inventory at Lianyungang increased by 10,000 tons to 90,000 physical tons [25]. - **Import**: In May 2025, the imported zinc concentrate was 491,500 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 84.26%. From January to May, the cumulative imported zinc concentrate was 2,204,000 tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.46%. The top three import source countries were Australia (22.10%), Peru (16.13%), and South Africa (10.49%). From June to July, the import window for zinc concentrates was basically closed, and although some previously locked - price imported ores flowed in, the volume of imported zinc concentrates was expected to decrease compared with the previous period [33]. - **Total Domestic Ore Supply**: In May 2025, the total domestic supply of zinc concentrates was about 546,200 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.74%. From January to May, the cumulative total supply was 2,390,100 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.99%. According to SMM data, in June 2025, the available days of inventory for refined zinc production enterprises were 29.7 days, an increase of 2 days month - on - month and 12.83 days more than the same period last year [36]. - **Zinc Ore Processing Fees**: In July, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates rose to 3,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,250 yuan/ton compared with December 2024. On July 4, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates was 3,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 1 US dollar/dry ton to 66.25 US dollars/dry ton. Currently, the profit of domestic mines is about 4,088 yuan/ton, domestic smelters have a production loss of about 228 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenue), and with by - product revenue, smelters have a profit of about 1,477 yuan/ton [39][40]. - **Global Refined Zinc Production** - In the first half of last year, the global zinc market was in surplus, but since July, it has turned into a shortage. In 2024, the annual refined zinc production was 1,362.02 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.01%. The annual demand was 1,364.78 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.32%. The annual refined zinc shortage was 27,600 tons. - From January to April 2025, global refined zinc production was 442,580 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10,550 tons or 2.33%. The main production cuts were concentrated in South Korea and Japan, mainly due to the reduction and suspension of production at South Korea's Seakpho smelter and Japan's Annaka smelter. - From January to April 2025, global refined zinc consumption was 427,470 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6,390 tons or 1.47%. The decrease in consumption was concentrated in the United States and Mexico, mainly due to geopolitical risks and macro - economic uncertainties. - From January to April 2025, the global refined zinc cumulative surplus was 151,100 tons, and the surplus was gradually expanding [43]. - **Domestic Refined Zinc Supply** - **Smelter Operation**: From January to June, the average operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was about 88.4%, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale refined zinc enterprises was 89.3%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%; that of medium - scale enterprises was 93.8%, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; and that of small - scale enterprises was 71.2%, a year - on - year increase of 0.54%. In January and February this year, the operating rate of domestic smelters was lower than the same period last year, mainly due to smelter losses and the Spring Festival holiday. Since March, after smelters turned profitable, the operating rate has increased significantly year - on - year. - **Production**: From January to June, domestic refined zinc production was 3.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.84%. In the first half of 2024, domestic smelters were profitable, and with relatively sufficient raw material inventory, domestic production was relatively stable. In the second half of 2024, due to ore shortages and reduced processing fees, smelters turned to losses, and the scale of production cuts continued to expand. This year, domestic smelters' production gradually increased after turning profitable in March, so the year - on - year increase in production in the first half of the year was not significant [46]. - **Zinc Ingot Import**: In May 2025, the imported refined zinc was 26,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons or 5.36% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. From January to May, the cumulative imported refined zinc was 155,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.66%. In May, the exported refined zinc was 1,400 tons, and the net imported refined zinc was 25,300 tons. The top three import countries in May were Kazakhstan (15,600 tons, 58.7%), Australia (3,600 tons, 13.56%), and Spain (2,800 tons, 10.57%). From June to July, the domestic refined zinc import window was basically closed. Although some previously locked - price imported zinc and duty - free imported zinc flowed in, the volume was expected to be significantly reduced compared with the previous period [48]. - **Downstream Consumption - Related Data** - **Primary Processing**: Information on the start - up situation and inventory of primary processing enterprises, including galvanizing, zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises, is provided [57][59]. - **Real Estate Construction**: Data on real estate development investment, sales area, new construction area, construction area, completion area, and unsold area are presented, along with the seasonal data of the 100 - city land transaction premium rate and the daily transaction data of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities [62][64]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: Trends in major infrastructure investment sectors, including power, transportation, and water conservancy, are provided [71]. - **Domestic Automobile**: Data on automobile production, including traditional fuel vehicles and new - energy vehicles, and export seasonality are presented [75][76]. - **Domestic White Goods**: Data on the monthly production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines are provided [78]. - **Raw Material Supply and Demand Summary Table**: The table shows the production, net import volume, and total supply of zinc concentrates and refined zinc from January 2024 to May 2025, including year - on - year changes [56].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit per catty of eggs is in a state of loss or flat, and the downward space of the futures price on the disk is expected to be relatively limited. The upward space of the contracts in August and September in the second half of the year will depend on the future volume of culled chickens. If the volume of culled chickens remains high, the upward space will be relatively large; if the volume of culled chickens fails to maintain, the contracts in August and September may be slightly stronger in a volatile manner [9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - The average price in the main production areas today is 2.58 yuan per catty, and the average price in the main sales areas is 2.79 yuan per catty, both remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The mainstream prices across the country are mostly stable today [6] - In June, the national laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, higher than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in June was 40.75 million, a month-on-month decrease of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [7] - From June 27th, the national slaughter volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 18.41 million, a decrease of 6% from the previous week. As of June 26th, the average slaughter age of culled chickens was 508 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [7] - As of June 26th, the sales volume of eggs in the representative sales areas across the country was 7,937 tons, a 5% increase from the previous week [8] - As of June 26th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.12 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.22 days, an increase of 0.18 days from the previous week [8] - As of June 26th, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was -0.41 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.08 yuan per catty from the previous week. On June 20th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 14.6 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.09 yuan per catty from the previous week [8] - Today, the price of culled chickens across the country has decreased, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.57 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.02 yuan per catty from the previous trading day [8] 2. Trading Logic - The current profit per catty of eggs is in a state of loss or flat, and the downward space of the futures price on the disk is expected to be relatively limited. The upward space of the contracts in August and September in the second half of the year will depend on the future volume of culled chickens [9] 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the far-month August and September contracts when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is relatively high [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options [10]

大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 7 月 10 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场：今天白天，贵金属小幅反弹。伦敦金震荡走高，当前交投于 3323 美元附近，伦敦银则交投于 36.5 美元附近。受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约收涨 0.49%，报 773.3 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.22%，报 8919 元/千克。 2.美元指数：美元指数低开后窄幅波动，当前交投于 97.45 附近。 3.美债收益率：10 年美债收益率窄幅波动，当前交投于 4.35%附近。 4.人民币汇率：人民币兑美元汇率高位震荡，当前交投于 7.177 附近。 【重要资讯】 1.特朗普政府动向：①7 月 9 日，特朗普再向 8 国发出关税信函：自 8 月 1 日 起，美国将对菲律 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 07 月 10 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | 2 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 器跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日份 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 格 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 110.52 | 112.49 | -1.97 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.38 | 7.29 | 0.09 | | 期货价格 | | | | ...