Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for polysilicon is to "wait and see, and pay attention to policy information", and for industrial silicon, it is "range-bound, and pay attention to supply-side variables" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the production of polysilicon increased to around 84,000 tons, and the silicon wafer production schedule increased to 50GW. The price of polysilicon decreased, and the market price may be affected by policies. For industrial silicon, the supply and demand shifted from destocking to a tight balance, and the short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [4][5] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - In March, companies such as GCL Technology and Qinghai Lihua increased production, and the polysilicon output increased to around 84,000 tons. The silicon wafer cost is not affected by non - ferrous metals, and the economic viability of silicon wafer exports remains. In March, the silicon wafer production schedule increased to 50GW compared to February. There was a slight destocking of polysilicon in March. The price of N - type dense material and re - feed material in early March was in the range of 39 - 50 yuan/kg, which was the core driver of the sharp decline in the futures price. If the policy emphasizes selling at no less than the industry benchmark cost, the polysilicon price may rise to around the benchmark cost, with an average price of 50 yuan/kg. If there is no further policy constraint, the futures price may decline further. - Trading strategies: For single - side trading, due to insufficient liquidity, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, there may be positive arbitrage opportunities; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [4] Industrial Silicon - Supply and demand: This week, the weekly output of DMC was 41,900 tons, a 0.24% decrease from the previous week; the weekly output of polysilicon was 19,500 tons, a 1.29% increase from the previous week; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 53%, a 1.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.8%, a 2.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The weekly output of industrial silicon was 66,300 tons, a 0.38% increase from the previous week. The total number of open furnaces for industrial silicon was 206, an increase of 1 from the previous week. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 199,800 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons from the previous week. The downstream raw material inventory was 236,000 tons, an increase of 800 tons from the previous week. - Trading logic: Large - scale organic silicon and industrial silicon producers resumed production simultaneously, and the supply and demand of industrial silicon shifted from destocking to a tight balance. After the self - discipline meeting of organic silicon enterprises, they reached a consensus that the operating rate from March to May would not exceed 65%, so the demand for industrial silicon from the organic silicon industry is likely to decrease. Although the polysilicon output increased in March, the sharp decline in the spot price has caused some enterprises to postpone their resumption of production, so there is no positive news on the demand side of industrial silicon. There were rumors over the weekend that the industry and information department required the submission of industry data, which may be interpreted as a positive policy expectation, and the futures price may rise. However, in the context of loose production capacity, once the futures price offers excess profits, producers' hedging will significantly suppress the futures price. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound. - Trading strategies: For single - side trading, it is recommended to trade within a range; for options, there are currently no recommended strategies; for arbitrage, there are currently no recommended strategies [5][6] Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - Market review: This week, the industrial silicon market was relatively stable. Although there were rumors at the beginning of the week that the electricity price for large producers had been negotiated, it was unconfirmed, and there were no significant changes in the fundamentals, with a narrow - range fluctuation. The spot price of industrial silicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton across the board [9] - Downstream demand data: The weekly output of DMC decreased by 0.24% to 41,900 tons; the weekly output of polysilicon increased by 1.29% to 19,500 tons; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 1.8 percentage points to 53%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 2.5 percentage points to 58.8% [12] - Industrial silicon output: This week, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 66,300 tons, a 0.38% increase from the previous week. The total number of open furnaces was 206, an increase of 1 from the previous week. The number of open furnaces in Sichuan increased by 2, and in Inner Mongolia decreased by 1, and the operating rates of other producers are expected to remain stable in the future. The increase in the operating rate in Sichuan this week was mainly due to the increase in local rainfall, and the government required silicon plants to increase the number of open furnaces to consume hydropower, and there is no expected change in other production areas [24] - Industrial silicon inventory: The social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 199,800 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons from the previous week. The downstream raw material inventory was 236,000 tons, an increase of 800 tons from the previous week [25] - Industrial silicon - related product prices: This week, the spot price of industrial silicon weakened slightly [31] - Organic silicon - related product prices: This week, the prices of DMC and terminal products remained stable [35] - Organic silicon intermediate fundamental data: The operating rate increased slightly [41] - Aluminum alloy fundamental data: The price increased, and the operating rate increased [46] - Industrial silicon raw material prices: This week, the price of petroleum coke increased, and the prices of other raw materials remained stable [49] Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - Price trends: This week, the prices of silicon wafers, batteries, and polysilicon decreased. For example, the average price of N - type dense polysilicon decreased by 7.45% compared to the previous weekend and 14.71% compared to the end of February [54][55] - Component fundamental data: In February, some photovoltaic component enterprises took holidays. After the cancellation of export tax rebates, some enterprises organized resumption of production, but the high cost of components due to the increase in battery and copper - aluminum prices led to a decline in the production schedule of component enterprises to around 30GW. In March, some enterprises need to deliver previously signed orders, and after the Spring Festival, they gradually resumed production, with the production schedule increasing by about 10GW compared to February. The inventory of photovoltaic components in Europe is 38.41GW, and the inventory of domestic photovoltaic manufacturers is 27.7GW, which is at a moderately high level [62] - Battery fundamental data: The increase in component production drives the increase in battery demand. The complete cancellation of battery export tax rebates will occur in 2027. In the context of high silver prices, battery enterprises have little willingness to rush for exports. It is expected that the battery production schedule in March will increase by 6GW to around 41GW compared to February [63] - Silicon wafer fundamental data: The current silicon wafer inventory has decreased to 28.35GW. The cost of silicon wafers is not affected by non - ferrous metals, and the economic viability of silicon wafer exports remains. It is expected that the silicon wafer production schedule in March will increase to 50GW compared to February [71] - Polysilicon fundamental data: In late January, Tongwei Co., Ltd. completely stopped production, and GCL Technology reduced production. The operating rates of other enterprises did not change significantly month - on - month. Affected by the number of days, the polysilicon output in February decreased to 77,000 tons compared to January. In March, Tongwei Co., Ltd. will not resume production for the time being, the monthly output of GCL Technology will increase to 18,000 tons, Gerns and Qiya will postpone their resumption of production, Lihua will increase production, and the Mengte base of Xinte Energy will resume production in March. It is expected that the polysilicon output in March will increase to around 84,000 tons compared to February [74]

锡周报：中东冲突加剧，缅甸推进复产 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号：Z0020351 综合分析及操作策略 截止3月13日，SMM锡锭三地社会库存总量为13357吨，较上周库存数据增加275吨。LME库存增加145吨至8775吨。 消费 锡锭现货市场成交随价格波动呈先抑后扬、随后转淡格局。价格下探至低位区间时，下游逢低集中补库，成交明显放量；价格回升至高位后，采购意愿受抑，市场重回观望， 下游以消化库存为主，仅维持少量刚需采购，整体交投受高价压制趋于清淡。 宏观面 2月份美国消费者价格呈现温和上涨态势，美国2月CPI年率录得2.4%，核心CPI年率录得2.5%，整体通胀数据符合市场预期。中东地缘局势急剧升级，成为市场核心扰动因素。 当地时间2月下旬至3月初，伊朗加大对中东地区石油及运输设施的袭击力度，加剧了市场对冲突长期化及石油供应可能中断的担忧，油价攀升，市场避险情绪高涨，同时通胀 担忧下美元也受到提振。 锡矿 精锡产量及进出口 库存 逻辑分析 宏观情绪叠加缅甸加速复产压制，下游需求订单暂未出现明显回暖，锡价承压震荡下行。 GALAXY FUTURES 1 12月份国内锡矿进 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily observations on the butadiene rubber market, including market conditions, important news, logical analysis, and trading strategies. It analyzes factors such as production, inventory, consumption, and price trends of butadiene rubber and natural rubber, and provides corresponding trading suggestions based on these analyses [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **BR Butadiene Rubber**: The price of the BR main 05 contract fluctuated during the observation period, with the price ranging from 12,760 to 15,950 points. The prices of butadiene rubber in different regions also showed certain fluctuations [1][6][11]. - **RU/NR Natural Rubber**: The prices of the RU main 05 contract and the NR main 05 contract also fluctuated. The prices of natural rubber in different regions and forms, such as WF, Vietnam 3L, and Thai standard near - port cargo, also changed accordingly [2][7][12]. Important News - **Corporate Acquisitions**: The US Cabot Corporation completed the acquisition of a carbon manufacturing company in Mexico for $70 million in cash [2]. - **Industry Expansion**: During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the global ethylene industry witnessed a new round of production expansion, with Northeast Asia and North America leading the way [7]. - **Tire Price Increases**: Many tire companies announced price increases due to rising raw material prices, with price increases ranging from 2% to 5% [12]. - **Automobile Industry**: The global automobile industry showed uneven development. China became the world's largest automobile exporter for two consecutive years, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" will adjust the strategy of automobile exports [16]. Logical Analysis - **Economic Indicators**: Factors such as the growth rate of industrial enterprise profits, the logistics industry prosperity index, and the dollar index affected the commodity market. For example, in December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the total profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size was +0.6%, with the growth rate narrowing for three consecutive months, which was negative for commodities [3]. - **Inventory and Production**: The inventory and production of butadiene rubber, natural rubber, and tires had an impact on the market. For example, the BR warehouse and factory warehouse receipts continued to accumulate, and the production capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber increased [3][17][25]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: For the BR main 05 contract, the strategies included holding long positions, waiting and seeing, and selective chasing of long positions, with different stop - loss points set according to different situations [3][8][13]. - **Arbitrage**: The arbitrage strategy mainly involved the BR2505 - RU2505 (2 lots vs. 1 lot) combination, with some opportunities for intervention and corresponding stop - loss points [3][8][21]. - **Options**: The general strategy was to wait and see [3][8][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports 2. Core Views - The reports mainly focus on the market conditions, important news, logical analysis, and trading strategies of plastic L and PP. The overall view is to provide investment suggestions based on the current market situation and various influencing factors, with many suggestions to hold long positions in the L and PP 2605 contracts [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Directory Market Situation - **L Plastic**: The price of LLDPE market fluctuates, and the trading volume is affected by factors such as factory procurement enthusiasm and petrochemical factory price adjustment. For example, on March 26, the L main 2605 contract closed at 8570 points, up 154 points or 1.83%. The LLDPE market price fell back, and the trading volume was affected by the low enthusiasm of factory procurement [1] - **PP Polypropylene**: The PP market is also affected by factors such as supply - side reduction expectations, cost support, and downstream acceptance of high - priced goods. For example, on March 26, the PP main 2605 contract closed at 8755 points, up 152 points or 1.77%. The domestic PP spot fluctuated slightly, and the downstream acceptance of high - priced goods was weak [1] Important News - **Industry - related**: The ethylene industry has a new round of production capacity expansion during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. Northeast Asia and North America lead the expansion. By the end of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the global ethylene production capacity will reach 240 million tons per year [6] - **Project - related**: On March 5, 2026, the 100,000 - ton polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) project of Ningxia Shuangying New Material Technology Co., Ltd. started construction, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan and an expected annual output value of 1.5 billion yuan [9] - **Policy - related**: The EU has approved a draft implementation act on the accounting rules for the minimum recycled content of plastic beverage bottles, which will affect the PET recycling industry [55] Logical Analysis - **Economic Indicators**: In December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was +0.6%, and the increase has narrowed for 3 consecutive months, which is negative for commodities [2] - **Industry - specific Data**: In March, the daily average output of domestic LLDPE decreased to 46,900 tons, with a year - on - year increase of +11.9%, and the growth rate has slowed down for 6 consecutive months, which is positive for L [22] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: For the L main 2605 contract, most of the time it is recommended to hold long positions and set stop - loss points. For example, on March 26, it is recommended to hold long positions and set the stop - loss at 8220 points [2] - **Arbitrage**: For the SPC L2605&PP2605 contract, it is often recommended to hold short positions and set stop - loss points. For example, on March 26, it is recommended to hold short positions and set the stop - loss at - 67 points [2] - **Options**: Generally, it is recommended to wait and see [2]

铅周报：国内社会库存持续累库 关注再生铅复产进程 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 目录 第一章 行情与逻辑 第二章 原料端 第三章 冶炼端 第四章 需求端 1.1 交易逻辑与策略 ◼ 产业供需： 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ➢ 供应端，本周铅冶炼厂仍表示铅精矿加工费尚未出现实质性反弹回升，但市场上负加工费报价的含银铅精矿报价已经明显减少，冶炼厂普遍观望慎采，叠加精铅市场基本面偏弱，冶 炼厂原料备库积极性较差。本周废铅蓄电池回收企业回收量较上周明显回升，部分回收企业回收量较复工初期有所提升。但受下游消费尚未完全复苏、废电瓶报废量偏低影响，仍存 在部分企业回收量未恢复至节前水平。由于再生铅炼厂复工进度较缓，对于废电瓶的需求尚未激增，预计下周废旧铅酸蓄电池采购价格企稳。 ➢ 冶炼端，本周SMM三省原生铅冶 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market this week showed a situation where feed costs increased while egg prices remained stable. The egg price rebounded initially but lacked sustained upward momentum due to insufficient terminal consumption. The overall supply and demand situation was complex, and the trading strategy suggested considering shorting the June contract [5][13][17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Logic Analysis and Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.08 yuan per catty, up 0.15 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.27 yuan per catty, up 0.16 yuan per catty from last Friday. The egg price rebounded initially but lacked sustained upward momentum due to insufficient terminal consumption. The price of broilers remained stable this week [5] 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - The egg shipment volume in the main producing areas showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The total volume fluctuated little. From March 13th, the weekly egg - chicken culling volume in the national main producing areas was 12.6 million, a 15% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 505 days, 3 days more than the previous week. In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, a 0.06 - billion increase from the previous month and a 3.4% year - on - year increase. The monthly egg - chicken chick output of sample enterprises in February was 43.3 million, with little change month - on - month and a 5% year - on - year decrease [10] 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - The feed cost increased this week. As of March 12th, the corn price was around 2440 yuan per ton, the soybean meal price was 3384 yuan per ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2723 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 3 yuan per catty of eggs. The cost of eggs per catty increased slightly month - on - month. The average weekly profit per catty of eggs was - 0.31 yuan per catty, a 0.02 - yuan decrease from the previous week. On March 6th, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 11.18 yuan per bird, a 0.67 - yuan decrease from the previous week [13] 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - The price in the main selling areas increased following the producing areas. The egg sales volume in the national representative selling areas was 6864 tons, a 4.3% increase from last week. The inventory in the production link decreased month - on - month, while the inventory in the circulation link increased slightly. The vegetable price index and pork price rebounded slightly [16] 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - The trading logic is that the overall capacity reduction has slowed down. It is recommended to consider shorting the June contract on rallies. For single - side trading, consider shorting the June contract on rallies; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [17] 3.2 Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Egg - Chicken Farming Situation - No specific data or analysis content provided 3.2.2 Spread and Basis - The report presents the basis and spread data of different contract months such as January, May, and September over the years [24][25][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, affected by the conflict between the US and Iran, the price fluctuations in the commodity market have significantly increased. The price drivers are dominated by emotions, energy security, and sudden information. The conflict is difficult to end in the short term, and the impact on the Strait of Hormuz remains. As the situation progresses, the marginal utility of the conflict decreases, and each variety will differentiate based on its fundamentals. Information and pricing will enter the verification stage. It is recommended to trade cautiously due to increased fluctuations and risks [15][23] - This week, the price of soda ash increased by 2%, with limited gains but large fluctuations. It is expected that the price of soda ash will fluctuate widely at a high level next week, and macro - risks should be focused on. For trading strategies, it is recommended to maintain a high - level wide - range shock for single - side trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [15] - This week, the weekly increase of glass was 4%, and the price turned stronger. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate widely at a high level next week, and macro - risks should be focused on. For trading strategies, it is recommended to maintain a high - level wide - range shock for single - side trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [23] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Supply - This week, the soda ash production was 809,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,000 tons (+0.3%), with heavy soda decreasing and light soda increasing. The daily production of soda ash increased to over 117,000 tons, and the daily production of Boyuan recovered to about 23,000 tons. The overall supply increased slightly. Jiangsu Debang's device resumed operation, and the output of Boyuan Yingen fluctuated slightly [8] - Some companies have device maintenance plans. For example, Jiangsu Debang had a 6 - day maintenance from February 28 to March 6, and Boyuan Yingen had a 4 - day production reduction from March 8 to March 12. There are also planned maintenances for other companies in the future [85] 3.1.2 Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash was 825,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.4%. The apparent demand for heavy soda was 430,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 5.3%), and that for light soda was 395,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 14.1%) [11] - The futures price fluctuated strongly this week. The mid - stream shipped about 8,000 tons, and the delivery price in Shahe was about 1,300 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan), corresponding to SA05. The price in Qinghai increased by 90 yuan/ton, and those in East China and North China increased by 30 yuan/ton respectively. The mid - stream increased purchases, and the upstream increased hedging [11] 3.1.3 Inventory - The upstream soda ash factory inventory accumulated to 1.932 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons. Among them, the heavy soda inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and the light soda inventory decreased by 14,000 tons. Regionally, the factory inventory in the Northwest decreased by 14,000 tons to 822,000 tons, that in the Southwest decreased by 3,000 tons to 591,000 tons, and that in the North China decreased by 5,000 tons to 178,000 tons [14] - The mid - stream inventory increased significantly, and the social inventory remained basically unchanged at 278,000 tons [14] - Downstream users purchased on demand. According to Longzhong's previous statistics, for the soda ash inventory of float glass, in 32% of the samples, the inventory days in the factory were 19.55 days, a week - on - week decrease of 4.15 days, and the inventory days in the factory and the undelivered goods were 29.26 days, a decrease of 10.20 days [14] 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Supply - This week, the daily melting volume of float glass was 146,900 tons, with 1,200 tons of cold - repair and 1,050 tons of ignition. One production line in North China was ignited, and one production line in North China and one in the Northwest were shut down [16] - According to Longzhong Information's production cost calculation model, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 106.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.57 yuan/ton; that using coal - made gas as fuel was - 39.38 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09 yuan/ton; and that using petroleum coke as fuel was - 7.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 34.29 yuan/ton [16] 3.2.2 Demand - In the demand side, the mid - stream in the Shahe and Hubei regions had a high enthusiasm for purchasing, and the local sales were good. The overall spot trading atmosphere was acceptable. The downstream demand recovered slowly, and the orders of processing plants were not good, but some replenished goods moderately under the price increase of raw material enterprises [20] - As of March 12, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 75.849 million weight cases, a week - on - week decrease of 3.788 million weight cases (-4.76%), and a year - on - year increase of 7.96% [20] 3.3 Other Related Data 3.3.1 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Prices - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions showed different degrees of increase. For example, the price of heavy soda ash in East China increased by 30 yuan/ton, and that in the Northwest increased by 90 yuan/ton [26] - The futures prices of SA05, SA09, and SA01 contracts all increased to varying degrees. The positions of the main contract decreased by 120,000 lots, and the trading volume increased by 350,000 lots [26] 3.3.2 Glass Futures and Spot Prices - The spot prices of glass in different regions also increased. For example, the price of Shahe Great Wall increased by 30 yuan/ton, and that of South China Great Plate increased by 30 yuan/ton [132] - The futures prices of FG05, FG09, and FG01 contracts remained stable. The positions of the main contract decreased by 220,000 lots, and the trading volume increased by 690,000 lots [132] 3.3.3 Other Related Industries - In the photovoltaic glass industry, the production capacity utilization rate and the effective production capacity remained unchanged this week. The import and export volume of photovoltaic glass changed. In December 2025, the import volume decreased by 70.39% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 22.29% month - on - month [202][210] - In the food and beverage industry, the monthly output of white wine, beer, soft drinks, and dairy products changed. For example, the output of white wine increased by 6.71% month - on - month, and that of beer increased by 40.58% month - on - month [223] - In the lithium carbonate industry, the monthly output and price of lithium carbonate showed certain trends, and the production capacity utilization rate also changed [232]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to show a moderately strong trend due to high international oil prices and the downward adjustment of sugar production expectations by major producing countries [3] - The domestic sugar market is currently in the peak crushing period, and the sugar production in this season is likely to increase significantly, putting some pressure on the supply side. However, considering the low current sugar prices and the possible tightening of import - end policies in the future, the sugar price is expected to gradually rise after bottoming out. In the short term, due to the high prices of crude - oil - related products and the sharp rise in international sugar prices, domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate slightly on the strong side [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices are expected to fluctuate slightly on the strong side in the short term. Zhengzhou sugar futures are also expected to fluctuate on the strong side in the short term [4] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] - Options: Sell put options in the short term [4] 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - Downward Adjustment of Production Expectations - The ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast; the supply surplus will be 1.22 million tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons from the previous forecast. Most global institutions have recently lowered their sugar production expectations for the 2026/27 season [3][8] - Czarnikow expects the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season to be 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 700,000 tons from the previous estimate; the global sugar production to be 184.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons from the previous estimate. It also points out that if the El Niño weather is strong, Brazil's sugar harvest may face difficulties [8] - Datagro expects a supply deficit of 800,000 tons in the 2025/26 season and a further reduction in supply in the 2026/27 season, with the deficit expanding to 2.68 million tons [8] - StoneX has significantly reduced the estimated global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season from 2.9 million tons to about 870,000 tons, a decrease of 70%. It also predicts that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season will decrease to about 40 million tons, a decrease of about 700,000 tons from the previous forecast [8] 3.2.2 Brazil - **End of the Pressing Season**: In the second half of January, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 609,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 370,000 tons; the sugar production was 5,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2,000 tons [9] - **Lower - than - Expected Increase in Production**: As of the second half of January in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 13.286 million tons year - on - year; the cumulative sugar production increased by 341,000 tons year - on - year. The increase in sugar production this season may be only 300,000 - 400,000 tons, lower than the market's previous expectation of 1 million tons [13] - **Ethanol Production and Sales**: The current ethanol - to - sugar price is about 17.2 cents per pound, and the ethanol - to - sugar price is much higher than the current futures price of raw sugar. It is expected that the sugar - making ratio in the new pressing season starting in April in Brazil will be relatively low. The sugar - making ratio in this season is 50.6%. A one - point decrease in the sugar - making ratio will reduce sugar production by 800,000 - 900,000 tons [16] - **Inventory and Exports**: Brazil exported 2.2297 million tons of sugar in February, a year - on - year increase of 22%. As of February in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar exports decreased by 2.1% year - on - year. As of the end of January, the inventory in the central - southern region was 5.7058 million tons, a decrease of 1.3149 million tons from the previous half - month report, and a year - on - year increase of 462,000 tons [21] 3.2.3 Thailand - The sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 960,000 tons. As of March 11, the cumulative sugar production was 9.7927 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,500 tons [24] 3.2.4 India - The ISMA estimates that the total sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season will be 32.4 million tons, and the net sugar production after deducting ethanol production will be 29.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The AISTA estimates that the sugar production may be 28.3 million tons, a 4.4% decrease from the previous estimate [25] - As of February 28, 2026, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65 million tons. However, the recent increase has been very limited, and the final output may be lower than expected [27] 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Domestic Sugar Production - **Guangxi**: As of February 28, 2025/26 season, 2 sugar mills have completed crushing, a year - on - year decrease of 35. The cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 46.0358 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 367,600 tons; the sugar production was 5.6513 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 515,800 tons [32] - **Yunnan**: As of February 28, 2026, 52 sugar mills were in operation (the same as the previous year). The cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 12.0182 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0335 million tons; the sugar production was 1.4934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 93,100 tons [32] 3.3.2 Domestic Sugar Sales and Inventory - **Guangxi**: As of February 28, 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar sales were 1.9923 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 891,000 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 35.25%, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 3.659 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 375,200 tons [35] - **Yunnan**: As of February 28, 2026, the cumulative sugar sales were 697,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25,000 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 46.71%, a year - on - year decrease of 4.89 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 795,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 118,000 tons [35] 3.3.3 Sugar Imports - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 188,500 tons. In 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 4.9188 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 562,200 tons [40] - In December 2025, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 69,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons. In 2025, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 1.1888 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1879 million tons [40] 3.3.4 Import Profits - The out - of - quota cost of Brazilian sugar is 5,160 yuan, with a profit of 450 yuan; the out - of - quota cost of Thai sugar is 5,050 yuan, with a profit of over 550 yuan. Recently, the cost of imported sugar has increased, and the import profit has decreased [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, caustic soda showed a strong performance, with spot prices rising across the board and profits significantly restored. The core drivers were the triple positive factors of supply contraction, export expectations, and inventory reduction [4]. - In the short term, the continuation of maintenance and active export inquiries will continue to support the market, and there is still room for the prices of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda to rise. Attention should be paid to the implementation of export orders and the actual procurement rhythm of downstream industries [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The sample enterprise capacity utilization rate dropped to 85.3%, and the weekly output was 844,000 tons, both showing a decline compared to the previous week. Multiple sets of equipment in Tianjin, Hubei, Guangxi and other places were under centralized maintenance, effectively alleviating the supply pressure. The apparent demand increased to 861,000 tons, and the supply - demand situation changed from loose to a slight tight balance. The national sample factory inventory was 534,200 tons, a 3.86% decrease compared to the previous week, and the storage capacity ratio declined. The prices of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong averaged 651 yuan/ton per week, and 50% liquid caustic soda was 1,118 yuan/ton, with flake caustic soda also rising, especially in East and Central China. The cost of raw salt remained stable, and the gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises turned positive to 205 yuan/ton, with a significant improvement in profitability [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Caustic soda is expected to remain strong. - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines. - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - The delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large alumina plants in Shandong decreased significantly, while the price remained stable. From January 18 to February 28, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong decreased from 630 yuan/ton to 590 yuan/ton [6][9]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory**: As of March 11, 2026, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 534,200 tons (wet tons), a 3.86% decrease compared to the previous week and a 19.15% increase compared to the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in the country this week was 30.41%, a 1.33% decrease compared to the previous week. Except for the stable storage capacity ratio in Central China and the increase in the storage capacity ratio in Southwest China, the storage capacity ratios in Northwest, Northeast, North, East, and South China decreased compared to the previous week [10]. - **Capacity Utilization**: This week (March 6 - 12, 2026), the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above in China was 85.3%, a 1.1% decrease compared to the previous week. The chlor - alkali loads in North, Central, and South China decreased significantly this week, driving the national chlor - alkali load to decline moderately. It is estimated that the national chlor - alkali load next week will be around 85% [13]. - **Price**: The prices of 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda all showed an upward trend. The prices of different regions and varieties had certain differences and fluctuations over time [24][27][29]. - **Profit**: The profit of caustic soda and chlor - alkali comprehensive profit showed certain trends and fluctuations in different regions and time periods. The profit of caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu showed different trends in different years [37]. - **Consumption and Market Demand**: The demand for caustic soda, liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda showed certain trends and fluctuations over time. The operating capacity, output, and operating rate of alumina also showed corresponding changes. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber and the dyeing and printing operating rate also had certain trends [50][54][60][63]. - **Export**: The export volume of caustic soda, liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda showed certain trends and fluctuations over time. The FOB price in North China and export profit also had corresponding changes [65][66].

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Demand Shows Decent Performance, Cotton Prices Fluctuate with an Upward Bias [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to fluctuate within a range, while the domestic cotton market is expected to show a slightly upward - biased trend in the short term. The cotton market has certain fundamental support, and investors can consider building long positions on dips [8][25][38] Summary by Directory Part 1: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamentals of the US cotton market have changed little, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. As of March 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 3.0442 million tons, accounting for 100.5% of the estimated annual US cotton production, a 4% year - on - year decrease. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 100.4%, a 4% year - on - year decrease, and that of Pima cotton was 103.8%, a 14% year - on - year decrease. The weekly deliverable ratio was 78.8%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.7%, 1.1 percentage points higher year - on - year. The final inspection volume is expected to be around 3.05 million tons, slightly higher than the production forecast of 3.03 million tons [8] - **US Cotton Growing Conditions**: As of March 10, the drought index of the main US cotton - producing areas (93.0%) was 229, a decrease of 3 from the previous week and an increase of 97 year - on - year. The drought index in Texas was 253, a decrease of 1 from the previous week and an increase of 65 year - on - year. Drought in the main cotton - producing areas is expected to continue from March to May, and may intensify in the central - western regions and ease in the eastern regions [8] - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of March 5, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 57,400 tons, a 68% increase from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 8,300 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 83,900 tons, a 31% increase from the previous week and a 77% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [8] - **CFTC**: As of March 6, the number of unpriced seller contracts on the ON - CALL 2605 contract decreased by 3,239 to 17,576, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous week. The total number of unpriced seller contracts in the 2025/26 season decreased by 1,019 to 32,083, equivalent to 730,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous week. The total number of unpriced seller contracts on ICE increased to 56,853, equivalent to 1.29 million tons, an increase of 1,475 from the previous week, or 30,000 tons [8] - **Brazil**: The Brazilian Cotton Growers Association (ABRAPA) predicts that this year's cotton production in Brazil will be 3.83 million tons, lower than 4.25 million tons in 2025. The output of Mato Grosso, the largest producing state, is expected to be 2.56 million tons, a 15% decrease from the previous season [8] - **Global**: According to the latest USDA March global cotton production and sales forecast, the global cotton production in March was 26.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 250,000 tons. China's total production increased by 100,000 tons to 7.72 million tons. Total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.84 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 280,000 tons to 16.63 million tons [8] Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of 24:00 on March 11, 2026, the cumulative public inspection of new cotton was 33,290,304 bales, totaling 7,514,731 tons, a 12.03% year - on - year increase. The cumulative public inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 7,128,929 tons, a 12.06% year - on - year increase. As of March 6, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.2078 million tons, a decrease of 59,800 tons (1.14%) from the previous week [26] - **Demand Side**: As of February 27, the cumulative sales volume of national lint cotton was 5.146 million tons, an increase of 1.846 million tons year - on - year and an increase of 2.309 million tons compared with the average of the past four years. As of March 12, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 76%, a 3.83% increase from the previous week [26] - **Overall**: The current market contradictions are not significant. With the downstream industries resuming work, there are certain expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April". The cotton sales progress is still fast and at a high level in the same period of previous years. The cotton fundamentals have certain support [26] Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: The current price difference between domestic and international cotton under the sliding - scale tariff is around 2,900 yuan/ton (about 3,900 yuan/ton under the 1% tariff), which is conducive to imports. The fundamentals have no obvious negative factors. The global cotton production in the USDA annual report was adjusted down by 3%. Overall supply is relatively tight, and if consumption continues to increase, there may be a tight - balance situation. The signing situation has improved [38] - **Single - side**: It is expected that the US cotton price will fluctuate slightly upward in the short term. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have certain support. Investors can consider building long positions on dips and avoid chasing high prices [38] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [38] - **Options**: Wait and see [38] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Price Difference**: The report provides historical data on the price difference between domestic and international cotton under the 1% tariff, as well as the price difference between the September and January contracts [41][42] - **Cotton Inventory**: It shows the historical data of national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mill industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory [44] - **Basis**: It presents the basis data of cotton in January, May, and September, as well as the basis of US seven - major market upland cotton and the basis of cotton yarn C32S spot and Zhengzhou cotton yarn active contract [47]