1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, there is a need for a correction in the oil and fat market due to profit - taking near the holiday. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. [3][5][68] - The Malaysian palm oil may experience production cuts and inventory reduction in January, but the inventory may remain at a relatively high level due to the high base. The combined inventory of Malaysia and Indonesia is not very loose. [4][14][68] - There are potential positive factors for soybean oil, such as following the rise of palm oil and the positive outlook for US biodiesel, but there is no prominent core contradiction. The supply pressure may be postponed. [4][40][68] - Rapeseed oil will continue to reduce inventory slightly in the short - term. The price has support below and is still affected by policy disturbances. [4][43][68] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January, the oil and fat market rebounded after reaching the bottom and fluctuated upward overall. Palm oil rose by about 7.8%, soybean oil by about 5.7%, and rapeseed oil by about 2.8% due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. The OI - Y 05 and OI - P 05 spreads continued to narrow. [3][10] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Malaysian palm oil may cut production and reduce inventory in January, but the inventory may remain high. There are potential positive factors for soybean oil, and rapeseed oil will maintain a slight inventory reduction with limited downward space. [4] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Consider shorting lightly at high levels or waiting for a correction to go long. The market will maintain a wide - range oscillation. - Arbitrage: Consider reverse arbitrage for Y59 at high levels. - Options: Stay on the sidelines. [5] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the preface summary, in January, the oil and fat market fluctuated upward. Palm oil was pushed up by factors such as the market's view that the negative news was exhausted and Indonesia's plan to raise the Levy tax in March. The expectation of US biodiesel also boosted the market. Rapeseed oil was affected by Sino - Canadian trade relations. [10] 3.2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil in January May Cut Production and Reduce Inventory, and Indonesia Seizes Illegal Plantations - In December, Malaysian palm oil inventory unexpectedly increased to 3.05 million tons. In January, production is expected to decrease to about 1.57 million tons, and inventory may reduce to around 2.85 million tons but remain at a relatively high historical level. The spot price of Malaysian CPO is oscillating strongly. Indonesia has seized illegal plantations, which may affect production in the short - term. The price of Indonesian palm oil is rising, and the export tax will be increased in March. [13][14][21] 3.2.3 India Has Soybean Oil Wash - Sales, and Palm Oil Imports May Increase - In December, India's edible oil imports decreased compared with the same period last year. The inventory of palm oil in ports decreased slightly, while that of soybean oil and sunflower oil increased. Currently, there is no import profit for the three major edible oils in India. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is rising, and palm oil's cost - effectiveness is emerging. It is expected that India will import about 680,000 tons of palm oil in January. [29][30] 3.2.4 Sino - Canadian Rapeseed Trade Disturbances Still Exist, and Domestic Oil and Fat Inventory Continues to Decline - Palm oil inventory is slightly decreasing, and the import profit is negative. It is expected to continue to decline slightly. Soybean oil inventory is also decreasing slightly, and there are potential positive factors. Rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing, and it is affected by policy. [39][40][43] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Palm oil may need a correction and maintains a wide - range oscillation. Soybean oil will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, and Y35 reverse arbitrage can be considered at high levels. Rapeseed oil will maintain a slight inventory reduction with limited downward space and is affected by policy. [68]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the international market, the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be in surplus and at a historically high level. Although the increase in Brazil's sugar production may fall short of expectations, its output is still at a high level in the same period over the years. In the Northern Hemisphere, India's sugar production is currently at a high level in the same period over the years, and the increase in this season's sugar production is likely to be higher than the previous market expectations. Thailand's sugar production this season is lower than that of last year, and the final increase in sugar production may also fall short of expectations. The Chinese market is still in an increasing - production cycle. Overall, the Northern Hemisphere is still in the process of realizing the expected increase in production. For the 2026/27 season, the world sugar production will still be at a high level, but there are differences in the market regarding the increase or decrease compared with this season. In the first quarter of 2026, the market is expected to mainly focus on the realization of the expected increase in production. Considering that the international sugar price is already low, the downward space is expected to be relatively limited, and it will probably fluctuate in the bottom range [4][12][88]. - In the domestic market, it is currently the peak period of sugar - mill crushing in China. The short - term domestic sugar supply is large. The market demand before the Spring Festival is acceptable, but it is likely to decline after the Spring Festival. Therefore, there is no short - term upward driving force for white sugar. However, considering that the current sugar price is at a relatively low level over the years and lower than the production cost in most areas of Guangxi, and there is also strong support near the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar, the sugar price in February is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation, and the oscillation range is likely to be similar to that in January [4][88]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January, the international sugar price showed a fluctuating trend, with the fluctuation range around 14.5 - 15 cents per pound. The domestic sugar price also fluctuated, with the range between 5100 - 5300 yuan per ton. Recently, Brazil's sugar - crushing is coming to an end, its sugar export volume is decreasing, and its influence on the global sugar price is weakening. The market has begun to focus on the production in the Northern Hemisphere. Currently, the increase in India's sugar production may be higher than expected, while the increase in Thailand's sugar production may be lower than expected. Although the sugar price is at a low level, there is still resistance to the upside, so the international sugar price is oscillating at the bottom. In the domestic market, it is currently the peak period of sugar - mill crushing, with sufficient white - sugar supply and great market sales pressure. There is strong resistance to the upside of the white - sugar price, but the space is relatively limited due to the support from the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar [3][8]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - International market: The global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be in surplus and at a high level. The ISO predicts that the global sugar market will have a surplus of 1630000 tons in the 2025/26 season, with an expected year - on - year increase of 3.15% in sugar production to 181.77 million tons and only a 0.6% increase in consumption to 180.14 million tons. For the 2026/27 season, there are differences in the market's expectations for the increase or decrease in global production. The Green Pool expects that the global sugar market will have a surplus for the second consecutive year in the 2026/27 season, but the surplus will decrease to 156000 tons [4][12][13]. - Domestic market: It is currently the peak period of sugar - mill crushing in China. The short - term sugar supply is large, and the demand is likely to decline after the Spring Festival. The sugar price is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation in February, with a range similar to that in January [4][88]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The international sugar price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. Domestic white sugar is also likely to remain in a range - bound oscillation. Short - term traders can consider buying at the low end and selling at the high end within the range [6][89]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]. - Options: Sell put options at low levels [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the content in the preface, in January, the international and domestic sugar prices fluctuated, and the market focus shifted to the Northern Hemisphere's production [3][8]. 3.2.2 International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - The global sugar production in the 25/26 season is increasing and at a high level. The ISO predicts a surplus of 1630000 tons. Brazil's sugar production is at a high level in the same period over the years, but the increase may fall short of expectations. India's sugar production is at a high level in the same period over the years, and the increase may be higher than expected. Thailand's sugar production this season is lower than last year, and the increase may fall short of expectations. China's sugar production in Guangxi may increase, and there are differences in the market's expectations for the 2026/27 season's global sugar production [12][13]. 3.2.3 Brazil: Sugar Production Increase May Fall Short of Expectations, and Export Volume Decreases Seasonally - Due to the increasing enthusiasm of Brazilian sugar mills to produce ethanol in the later stage of the crushing season, the increase in Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season may fall short of expectations. As of the second half of December, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 341000 tons. The whole - Brazil sugar production in this season is expected to increase by only about 500000 tons year - on - year, lower than the previous market expectation of 1000000 tons. The ethanol - to - sugar price is much higher than the sugar price, so the sugar - making ratio is decreasing seasonally. In December, Brazil's sugar export volume decreased. The sugar inventory is also decreasing seasonally, and the influence of Brazilian sugar on the market is weakening [16][17][19]. 3.2.4 India: New Season's Production Increase May Exceed Expectations; Thailand: Sugar Production Decreases Slightly Year - on - Year - India: The ISMA expects the domestic sugar production in the 2025/26 season to be about 34.35 million tons (before deducting the amount for ethanol production). The demand is expected to be about 28.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 400000 tons. As of January 15, the cumulative sugar production in India has reached 15.885 million tons, 8.8% higher than the average of the past five years. The number of operating sugar mills has increased. The 2 - month sales quota is 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50000 tons compared with January. In October, the net export volume of Indian sugar was 186200 tons. In the 26/27 season, the probability of the El Nino climate forming in summer increases, which may affect India's sugar production [40][41][43]. - Thailand: The market expects Thailand's sugar production to reach 11 million tons in the 25/26 season, and the export volume is expected to increase by about 1 million tons. However, as of January 15, the cumulative sugar production was 2.5835 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.2%. The cumulative sugar - production rate is at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Although the sugar production is likely to increase this season, the increase will be lower than expected. As of November 2025, the cumulative sugar export volume was 5.385 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.8%, but still at a relatively low level compared with previous years [44]. 3.2.5 Guangxi: Centralized Crushing Time Is Slightly Postponed; Yunnan: High Sugar Production - In this sugar - making season, Guangxi's crushing progress is behind, so both sugar production and inventory are low. Yunnan's crushing progress is slightly ahead, and there is a large amount of foreign - sourced sugarcane entering the market, so the sugar production and inventory are high. In January, the crushing progress in both regions is expected to accelerate, and the production and sales data are expected to be optimistic. As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 1.9419 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 809500 tons. In Yunnan, the cumulative sugar production was 392300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65400 tons. The third - party inventory in Guangxi in January was about 745200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 667400 tons but a year - on - year decrease of 224200 tons [56][58][59]. 3.2.6 December: High Import Volume; January: Expected Import Volume Decrease - In December 2025, China imported 580000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 188500 tons. In 2025, the cumulative sugar - import volume was 4.9188 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 562200 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar - import volume was 1.7635 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 301700 tons. The sugar - import volume in January is expected to decrease seasonally [75]. 3.2.7 December: Decrease in Imported Syrup and Premixed Powder - In December 2025, China imported a total of 69700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 120800 tons. In 2025, the total import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 1.1888 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1879 million tons. As of the end of December in the 25/26 season, the total import volume was 299600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 339500 tons. The decrease is mainly due to the expansion of the scope and number of enterprises whose imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder are suspended by the customs [84][85]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.3.1 Future Outlook - Similar to the content in the preface, the international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation in February [4][88]. 3.3.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The international sugar price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. Domestic white sugar is also likely to remain in a range - bound oscillation. Short - term traders can consider buying at the low end and selling at the high end within the range [6][89]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]. - Options: Sell put options at low levels [6].

黑色板块研发报告 铁矿石 2 月月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 市场预期反复，矿价高位承压 第一部分 前言概要 黑色板块研发报告 铁矿石 2 月月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 银河期货 第 1 页 共 18 页 第二部分 铁矿石市场数据回顾 图 1：普氏铁矿价格 图 2：PB 粉价格 70 100 130 160 190 220 250 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 图 3：卡粉-PB 粉价差 图 4：PB 粉-超特粉价差 第 2 页 共 18 页 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2021 2022 2023 ...

国债期货研发报告 国债期货 11 月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 债市情绪修复，但利空因素尚存 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 1 月期债盘面先下后上，中旬起债市情绪有所修复。截止 1 月 30 日收 盘，TS、TF、T、TL 主力合约月内分别-0.05%、+0.15%、+0.45%、+0.48%。 期债盘面估值多数时间处于中性偏低水平，按中债估值与期债结算价计算， 截止 1 月 29 日收盘，TS、TF、T、TL 主力合约 IRR 分别为 1.3258%、 1.4564%、1.3652%、2.4065% 【市场展望】 综合来看，1 月公布的月度宏观数据有喜有忧。外需带动生产端韧性较 足，但内需端改善较为有限；"再通胀"进展得到确认，但价格结构上的分 化依旧明显；企业部门融资需求继续回升，但受制于收入预期与房价，居民 部门延续"缩表"态势。与此同时，央行对银行间市场流动性的呵护态度保 持不变且明确年内总量宽松还有一定空间，这与去年一季度央行流动性管理 紧平衡存在较大不同。不过，短期内总量宽松落地概率或不高。 后续而言，考虑到基本面现状与央行对流动性的呵护，债市中短端风险 较为可控，但在政策利率调降预期 ...

| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | | 二、供应概况 | 4 | | | 三、需求概况 | 7 | | | 四、库存与估值 | 9 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 12 | | | 免责声明 | 13 | | 能化板块研发报告 原油 2 月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 "天气与地缘"双双驱动油价上行 【行情回顾】 2026 年 1 月，国际原油期货上演了"天气与地缘"双驱动的震荡上行行 情。受到地缘政治紧张及欧美寒潮天气影响，油价逆势走强，整体呈现偏强震 荡格局。截至 1 月下旬，两大基准油价较 2025 年末显著上涨 10 美元/桶。 其中，美国 WTI 原油期货价格于 1 月 29 日收于 65.51 美元/桶，当月累计上 涨约 14.1%；英国布伦特原油期货收于 69.71 美元/桶，涨幅更是达到 14.5%。 地缘政治风险是本月核心支撑，市场对主要产油 ...

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | 二、冷库去库速度加快 | 3 | | 三、春节前备货开启 苹果需求尚可 | 5 | | 四、进出口情况 | 7 | | 五、替代品情况 | 8 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 9 | | 免责声明 | 10 | 农产品板块研发报告 2026 年 1 月 30 日 去库速度加快 苹果需求尚可 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 期货方面，1 月份苹果期货主连价格震荡略偏强，价格重心有所上移， 价格重心由之前的 8900-9200 元/吨附近上移至 9400-9700 元/吨的价格区 间震荡。苹果期货价格重心走高的主要原因是今果季苹果入库量低、冷库果 质量偏差以及苹果仓单的制成成本偏高。 【市场展望】 基本面分析：供应端，今年苹果冷库库存低以及质量差，目前冷库苹果库存处 于近些年次低位，供应略偏紧。需求端，今年春节时间较晚，节前备货行情启动， 目前来看需求尚可。成本端，今年苹果仓单成本较高，从 1 ...

交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：李轩怡 电 话：13164701108 邮 箱： lixuanyi_qh@chinastock.com.cn 期货从业资格证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：F0018403 能化板块研发报告 2026 年 1 月 30 日 玻碱节后库存承压，价格偏弱运行 第一部分 前言概要 【纯碱】 在去美元化背景下，1 月有色及贵金属加速上涨，断崖式领涨于商品市场。本轮 商品价格普涨更像是随着全球金属价格上涨而出现的输入性通胀，但若上游资源价格 涨价过快，下游涨价能否顺畅传导，还是会进一步缩减需求有待观察，但这部分担忧 的计价预计会延迟到临近春节或节后释放。市场对春季商品普涨行情有一定期待，在 当前估值下对节后累库计价也比较谨慎。但随着春节的临近，库存压力将会愈发突出， 若宏观情绪边际走弱，价格易跌难涨。 1 月纯碱新增产能陆续提负，湖北新都，博源二线新增产能提量，逐步对纯碱供 应形成压力。2 月份预计 2 条浮法玻璃产线放水冷修，光伏玻璃产能或变动不大，重 碱用量预计下滑，春节假期期间部分轻碱下游用户放假，下游需求减少。通胀计价下 商品普涨，但传导上 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International LNG: In the short - term, supply disruptions and strong heating demand support prices, but further upside is limited. Long - term supply will increase, and prices will decline after winter. In February, it maintains the view of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with Europe stronger than Asia [6][53]. - US HH: Short - term price surges are due to cold snaps. After the cold snap, supply and demand will ease. Prices are closely related to temperature. In February, it maintains the view of near - term strength and long - term weakness [6][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - International LNG: Prices rebounded sharply in January. TTF rose nearly 35% from $9.7 per MMBTU to over $13 per MMBTU, driven by cold weather and geopolitical tensions [5]. - US HH: Prices had a roller - coaster ride. In early January, they dropped to around $3 per MMBTU due to warm weather and high production. Then, they soared to $7.46 per MMBTU on January 19th due to cold snap expectations [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - International LNG: Short - term supply disruptions and strong heating demand support prices, but further upside is restricted. Long - term supply growth and reduced demand after winter will lead to price declines [6]. - US HH: Cold snaps cause short - term price spikes. After the cold snap, supply and demand will improve. Prices are temperature - dependent, and in February, the market is expected to be near - strong and far - weak [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Short HH second - quarter contracts; short TTF or JKM third - quarter contracts. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - International LNG: Prices rebounded in January due to cold expectations, low inventory, and geopolitical concerns. The first - line price rose from about $9.3 per MMBTU to a maximum of $15 per MMBTU [11]. - US HH: Prices had a V - shaped reversal in January. They fell in the first half due to mild weather and high production, then soared in the last two weeks due to cold snap expectations and a short - squeeze [11]. 3.2.2 US Market Fundamentals - Supply: As of January 28th, the average daily dry - gas production in January was about 110.6 billion cubic feet, down 2.6% from the previous month but up 6.6% year - on - year. After the cold snap on January's end, supply dropped to about 96 billion cubic feet per day, a nearly 16% decline from the monthly high [15][17]. - Demand: As of January 28th, the average daily domestic consumption in January was about 109.3 billion cubic feet, down 5.2% year - on - year. After the cold snap, daily demand reached about 140 billion cubic feet [15]. - Inventory: As of January 23rd, the total natural - gas inventory was 2823 billion cubic feet, up 9.8% year - on - year and 5.3% higher than the five - year average [16]. 3.2.3 International LNG Market Fundamentals - Europe: As of January 26th, the inventory level was 513.6 TWh, down 20.3% year - on - year, only 44.9%. The inventory consumption was faster in January. Local production decreased slightly, while imports reached a record high. Industrial demand did not recover, and gas - power demand growth was not obvious. The 2 - month cold expectation is strong, and there is no obvious expectation of wind - power expansion [25][27]. - China: In 2025, production increased 6.3% year - on - year, and imports decreased 2.9%. In December, production and imports increased year - on - year. As of January 23rd, LNG receiving - station and storage - reservoir inventory levels were higher than last year [31]. - Japan and South Korea: Japan's average daily imports in January were expected to be about 204,300 tons, up 2.3% month - on - month but down 4.7% year - on - year. As of January 23rd, the utility LNG inventory was 2.26 million tons. South Korea's average daily imports in January were expected to be about 142,100 tons, down 5.6% month - on - month and flat year - on - year. As of December, the LNG inventory was about 3.3 million tons, close to last year's level [32]. 3.2.4 Weather Forecast - China: North China will warm up slightly and then cool down, with overall temperatures lower than average in the next month. East China will be warm in early February and slightly cooler than normal in late February. South China's temperatures will be slightly higher than average in February [41]. - Japan and South Korea: They will warm up in early February and then cool down again, with overall temperatures slightly colder than average in the next month [41]. - US: It will remain cold in early February, and temperatures will be significantly lower than average after the cold snap. The cold expectation is strong in February [41]. - Europe: Northwest Europe will be slightly colder than average in the next two weeks and extremely cold in mid - February. Central Europe will cool down sharply in early February, warm up briefly but still be colder than normal. Italy's wind power will be strong in the short - term, and Germany's will be weak in February [41]. 3.2.5 Market Outlook - International LNG Market: In the short - term, supply disruptions and strong demand support prices, but further upside is limited. Long - term supply will increase, and prices will decline after winter. In February, it maintains the view of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with Europe stronger than Asia [53]. - US Market: Short - term price spikes are due to cold snaps. After the cold snap, supply and demand will ease. Prices are temperature - dependent. In the second quarter, the market situation depends on post - winter inventory levels [54].

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