Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short - term due to geopolitical conflicts and uncertain macro - economic factors. Brent is expected to trade in the range of $60 - 70 per barrel in the medium - term [2]. - The asphalt market is supported by cost and low inventory, with a relatively optimistic outlook during the peak season, and the BU2506 contract is expected to trade between 3400 - 3600 [7]. - The domestic LPG market is under pressure during the summer off - season, with a weak fundamental outlook [10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has increasing seasonal power - generation demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a supply increase and weak demand [12][13]. - Natural gas prices in the US are expected to be volatile and weak, while in Europe, they are expected to be volatile and strong [14][15]. - PX and PTA are expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation in the third quarter, with prices expected to be well - supported [16][18]. - The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow [19]. - Short - fiber prices follow the trend of raw materials, with weak production and sales [20]. - The bottle - chip market has improved trading volume, but the processing fee may still be under pressure [24]. - PVC is in a short - term price - oscillation state and a long - term supply - surplus situation; caustic soda requires short - term observation and medium - term short - selling [27][28]. - Plastic and PP are recommended to be short - sold at high prices in the medium and short - term [29]. - The price of soda ash is expected to decline due to cost reduction and lack of significant driving factors [32]. - Glass prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and enter the off - season, with mid - term concerns about cost reduction and factory cold - repair [34]. - Methanol is recommended to be short - sold on rebounds [37]. - Urea is expected to be in a short - term oscillatory state, with a focus on policy changes [39]. - The corrugated and box - board paper market is expected to rebound due to tariff relaxation, but policy continuity and other factors need to be monitored [40][41]. - The double - offset paper market continues to be weak, with slow demand release [43]. - The log market is expected to be stable in the short - term but faces challenges in the long - term [44]. - For natural rubber, the RU 09 contract should hold short positions, and the NR 07 contract should be observed [47]. - For paper pulp, the SP 07 contract should be observed [49]. - For butadiene rubber, the BR 07 contract should be observed, and relevant spreads and options should be operated according to specific strategies [52]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2506 settled at $62.56, down $0.13 (- 0.21%); Brent2507 settled at $65.38, down $0.16 (- 0.24%); SC2507 rose 3.2 to 464.6 yuan/barrel, and 3.2 to 467.8 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Israel is reported to be preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities; the EU and the UK imposed new sanctions on Russia [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts lead to short - term price volatility, and the long - term supply surplus pressure is difficult to resolve [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation is strong, and medium - term is weak; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are weak; options are on hold [3][4]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2506 closed at 3523 points (- 0.51%) at night; BU2509 closed at 3450 points (- 0.17%) at night [4]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, and South China have different trends, affected by supply, demand, and crude oil prices [4][5][6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Cost support and low inventory support the price, and the peak - season outlook is optimistic [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; the asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates at a high level; options are on hold [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: PG2506 closed at 4236 (- 0.19%) at night; PG2507 closed at 4160 (- 0.36%) at night [7]. - **Related News**: The market in South China, East China, and Shandong has different trends, affected by supply and demand [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Cost increases, supply rises, and demand in the off - season is weak [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation and weakness [10]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU07 closed at 3031 (- 0.13%) at night; LU07 closed at 3525 (- 1.04%) at night [10]. - **Related News**: China's fuel oil imports increased in April; Russia's exports increased; Saudi Arabia may increase crude oil power - generation [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has increasing demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a supply increase and weak demand [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: On hold for single - side trading; FU 9 - 1 positive spread takes profit, and LU 7 - 8 reverse spread enters at high prices [13]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: HH closed at 3.427 (+ 10%); TTF closed at 36.979 (+ 4.98%); JKM closed at 12.595 (+ 5.09%) [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: US inventory accumulation is higher than average, with supply and demand changes; European prices are affected by geopolitics and supply reduction [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: US natural gas is volatile and weak, while European natural gas is volatile and strong [15]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6668 (- 1.24%) during the day and 6706 (+ 0.57%) at night [15]. - **Related News**: Northeast PX device starts maintenance; polyester production and sales are weak [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term start - up rate changes little, and the supply - demand situation is tight in the third quarter [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; long PX and short PTA; double - selling options [16]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4732 (- 0.92%) during the day and 4750 (+ 0.38%) at night [16]. - **Related News**: Polyester production and sales are weak; some PTA devices have start - up and restart changes [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and the third - quarter supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; long PX and short PTA; double - selling options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4413 (+ 0.34%) during the day and 4416 (+ 0.07%) at night [18]. - **Related News**: Polyester production and sales are weak; some MEG devices have start - up and shutdown changes [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation and consolidation; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [19][20]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 closed at 6506 (- 0.58%) during the day and 6506 (0%) at night [20]. - **Related News**: Polyester production and sales are weak [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Prices follow raw materials, with weak production and sales [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: On hold for single - side trading; on hold for arbitrage; on hold for options [20][21]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: PR2507 closed at 6022 (- 1.08%) during the day and 6028 (+ 0.10%) at night [21]. - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factory export quotes are mostly lowered [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: Prices follow raw materials, with improved trading volume but processing fees under pressure [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation and consolidation; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [24][25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices are slightly adjusted, and caustic soda prices rise slightly [25]. - **Related News**: Shandong alumina manufacturers increase the purchase price of caustic soda [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC is in a short - term oscillation and long - term surplus situation; caustic soda demand has uncertainties [27][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: PVC is short - sold on rebounds; caustic soda requires short - term observation and medium - term short - selling; on hold for arbitrage and options [27][28]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE prices fall in some regions, and PP prices have slight fluctuations [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: New capacity is being realized, and demand is weak, so they are recommended to be short - sold at high prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices in the medium and short - term; on hold for arbitrage and options [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 09 contract closes at 1280 yuan/ton (- 0.3%), and the SA9 - 1 spread is 6 yuan/ton [29]. - **Related News**: Some soda ash enterprises start maintenance, and the market is lightly adjusted [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: Production is expected to decrease in the short - term, but the market trades the post - maintenance surplus situation, and demand is weak [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Cost reduction leads to price decline; short soda ash and long glass; on hold for options [32]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 09 contract closes at 1025 yuan/ton (0.69%), and the 9 - 1 spread is - 56 yuan/ton [32]. - **Related News**: Glass prices in different regions have different trends, and the LPR is lowered [33][34]. - **Logic Analysis**: Prices are in a bottom - seeking trend, with supply decline and inventory pressure in the off - season [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are volatile and weak; long glass and short soda ash; on hold for options [34]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures close at 2269 (- 0.53%) at night [34]. - **Related News**: Northwest methanol signing volume decreases [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: International supply is high, imports will increase, and domestic supply is loose, so it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [37]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures close at 1849 (+ 0.11%) [37]. - **Related News**: Urea production and inventory changes, and export policies are discussed [38][39]. - **Logic Analysis**: Production is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [38][39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term long on pullbacks; 91 positive spread layout at low prices; sell put options [39][40]. Corrugated and Box - Board Paper - **Related News**: Paper prices rise, and waste yellow - board paper prices rise [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Tariff relaxation promotes export recovery and price rebound, but factors such as policy continuity need to be monitored [40][41]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided. Double - Offset Paper - **Related News**: The market is stable, with weak demand [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is weak, with slow demand release and stable cost support [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided. Log - **Related News**: Log spot prices are stable, and import and arrival data change [43][44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term is expected to be stable, but the long - term faces challenges from real - estate demand and inventory [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe for single - side trading; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; on hold for options [45]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: RU09, JRU10, NR07, TF08, and BR07 all decline [45][46]. - **Related News**: China's rubber tire exports increase in the first four months [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: Thailand's rubber exports and Japan's inventory have changes [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for the RU09 contract; observe the NR07 contract; on hold for arbitrage and options [47]. Paper Pulp - **Market Review**: The SP07 contract closes at 5424 (+ 0.26%) [48]. - **Related News**: Two major state - owned enterprises in the pulp industry adjust management, which may enhance pricing power [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: CME wood prices and domestic paper - industry inventory have negative impacts on SP [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the SP07 contract; on hold for arbitrage [49]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR07 closes at 12095 (- 0.45%) [50]. - **Related News**: China's rubber tire exports increase in the first four months [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic butadiene inventory and tire exports have impacts on spreads [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the BR07 contract; reduce positions and observe the BR2507 - NR2507 spread; sell and hold the BR2507 put 11200 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's high [52].

2025 年 5 月 20 日 银河能化-20250520 早报 【银河期货】原油期货早报（25-05-20） 【市场回顾】 原油结算价：WTI2506 合约 62.69 涨 0.20 美元/桶，环比+0.32%；Brent2507 合约 65.54 涨 0.13 美元/桶，环比+0.20%。SC 主力合约 2507 涨 0.3 至 461.4 元/桶，夜盘涨 4.0 至 465.4 元/桶。Brent 主力-次行价差 0.72 美金/桶。 【相关资讯】 美国总统特朗普周一表示，俄罗斯和乌克兰将立即开始停火谈判，以解决长达三年之久的 冲突，但在两小时的通话中，他似乎并未从俄罗斯总统普京那里获得重大让步。 欧盟执委会副主席东布洛夫斯基表示，欧盟将于本周向 G7 财长提议降低目前每桶 60 美元 的俄罗斯海运石油价格上限，作为对俄罗斯新制裁方案的一部分。了解讨论情况的欧盟官 员说，欧盟将提议降至每桶 50 美元。 伊朗国家媒体周一援引伊朗副外长马吉德·塔赫特-拉万奇的话说，如果美国坚持要求伊朗 停止铀浓缩活动，伊朗和美国之间的核谈判将不会取得任何进展。 截止 5 月 13 日当周，交易商在纽约商品交易所和伦敦洲际 ...

库存高位，成本驱动乏力，纸价偏稳 银河化工 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本情况①价格：70g双胶纸企业含税均价为5128.6元/吨，环比持平。② 供应端分化：停产企业暂未恢复正常生产，随着新增装置生产 趋稳，行业供应有增量趋势。需求端疲弱：出版招标订单释放有限，零星低价压制市场预期③成本：部分阔叶浆贸易商捂盘惜售，流通货 源阶段性收紧，助推价格反弹。 【逻辑】 双胶纸：供应：行业盈利水平仍较低，工厂转产情况存在，市场供应趋稳。需求：秋季出版订单释放进度缓慢，社会面订单仍显不振，整 体终端消费跟进不及预期，下游印厂开工水平不高，用户原纸库存消耗缓慢，无明显大量囤库意愿。成本：国内港口库存仍处于高位，叠 加进口浆现货市场货源充裕，市场整体趋稳。 【策略】 胶版印刷纸预期下周整体偏稳运行。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GA ...

供需双弱，原木反弹乏力 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 目前下游加工厂库存刚需买货，随着近期原木现货连续掉价，下游出库短期已有好转，未来预计现货整体趋稳，但终端市场依旧低迷， 目前挺价的和持续性和成交量都有待考量。中长期，在房地产需求减弱和港口库存增加的双重压力下，原木现货市场仍面临挑战。 交易所未来会组织多次原木模拟交割，关注国标尺和市场尺的尺差，这会很大程度影响原木估值。 【策略】 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 价格：现货价格：本周日照3.9米中A辐射松价格760元/方，周环比持平，太仓4米中A原木价格780元/方，环比持平；供应：原木预 计到港量18.92万方，周环比-70%；本期针叶原木总库存343万方，周环比-2.28%。需求：2022年1-5月，全国房屋新开工面积5.2亿平 方米，同比下降30.6%。其中，住宅新开工面积3.8亿平方米，同比下降31.9%。本期13港原木日均出库量6.15万方，周环比-10.35%。 进口成本：外 ...

高硫旺季需求支撑，低硫近端供应回升 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 高硫燃料油当周近月裂解及月差均环比上行，现货贴水受近端供应压制维持在0值以下。短期内俄乌局势及欧美对俄制裁仍不明朗， 炼厂春季季节性检修，俄罗斯对外高硫出口暂无增长预期。墨西哥高硫主要供应炼厂二次产能逐步完善，对外高硫出口回落。需求端， 高硫季节性发电需求逐步启动，埃及已陆续发布高硫招标以用于发电，伊朗和沙特发电需求均开始提升。 低硫燃料油现货贴水震荡，但低硫供应持续回升且下游需求仍较疲弱。南苏丹对外低硫原料供应逐步回归，5至6月已有8船低硫货装 载预期，5月第一船60万桶预计于5月下旬到达新马地区。Al-Zour低硫出口回升至炼厂正常运行时期高位。尼日利亚近端低硫出口回 升且均往新加披方向，Dangote催化裂化装置听闻重回新开始运营，密切关注对外低 ...

： 021-65789108 ： wuxiaorong_qh @chinastock.com.cn 大宗商品研究所 沥青研发报告 沥青日报 2025 年 5 月 16 日 沥青日报 第一部分 相关数据 | 名称 | 2025/05/16 | 2025/05/15 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格与持仓 | | | | | | BU2506 （主力） | 3510 | 3466 | 44 | 1.27% | | BU2507 | 3461 | 3444 | 17 | 0.49% | | BU2508 | 3436 | 3424 | 12 | 0.35% | | SC2506 | 456.2 | 463.2 | -7.0 | -1.51% | | Brent首行 | 64.55 | 64.30 | 0.3 | 0.39% | | 主力合约持仓/万手 | 7.5 | 7.9 | -0.4 | -4.62% | | 主力合约成交/万手 | 11.9 | 13.1 | -1.2 | -8.92% | | 仓单数量/吨 | 86520 | 86520 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The near - term high - sulfur supply in the Asian market remains abundant, with high inventories of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore on land and in floating storage. There is still a medium - term supply gap due to geopolitical and sanctions affecting exports from Russia and the Middle East. The seasonal power - generation demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is gradually starting. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply is continuously rising while the downstream demand is weak [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Related Data - On May 16, 2025, the FU main contract was 2989, up 4 from the previous day and 40 from the week before; the LU main contract was 3572, down 23 from the previous day and up 100 from the week before. The FU main contract's open interest was 156,000 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,000 lots and a weekly increase of 7,000 lots; the LU main contract's open interest was 80,000 lots, with a daily increase of 3,000 lots and a weekly increase of 14,000 lots. The FU warehouse receipts were 28,950 tons, a daily decrease of 7,000 tons; the LU warehouse receipts were 0 tons. The FU7 - 9 spread was 165, down 2 from the previous day and 11 from the week before; the LU7 - 8 spread was 81, down 5 from the previous day and up 29 from the week before. The LU - FU main contract spread was 583, down 27 from the previous day and up 60 from the week before. The FU07 - foreign 07 spread was 5.3, down 1.8 from the previous day and the week before; the LU07 - foreign 06 spread was 9.1, down 0.4 from the previous day and up 6.8 from the week before [3] 2. Market Research and Judgment Market Overview - The FU high - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts were 28,950 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons compared to May 15. The LU low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts were 0 tons, remaining at 0 for four days. In the Singapore paper - cargo market, the high - sulfur Jun/July spread rose from 16.5 to 18.5 US dollars per ton, and the low - sulfur Jun/July spread rose from 9.3 to 9.8 US dollars per ton [5] Important Information - In April, Russia's seaborne oil product exports decreased by 2.6% compared to March, reaching 9.407 million metric tons. The total imports rebounded to nearly 850,000 tons after a significant decline the previous week [6] Market Judgment - The near - term high - sulfur supply in the Asian market remains abundant, with high inventories in Singapore. There is a medium - term supply gap as exports from Russia and the Middle East are affected by geopolitics and sanctions. The high - sulfur power - generation demand is starting seasonally. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the spot premium fluctuates, the supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. South Sudan's low - sulfur raw material supply is gradually returning, and Al - Zour's low - sulfur exports have reached a high level. Nigeria's low - sulfur exports are increasing, and China has sufficient low - sulfur quotas with weak downstream demand [7] 3. Related Attachments - The report provides six figures including Singapore's high - sulfur and low - sulfur spot premiums, high - and low - sulfur spreads, LSFO - GO, high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Reuters [9]

河南产区仍高温 花生盘面继续反弹 银河农产品 研究员：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 10 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 花生策略推荐 GALAXY FUTURES 2 ◼ 交易逻辑：花生成交量一般，通货花生价格偏强，油厂收购价格稳定。河南通货花生价格在4.1元/斤附近，东北花生现货也略涨，进口花生价格 上涨，前3月进口量大幅减少，油厂开机率略降，花生粕现货跟随豆粕略回落，花生油价格上涨，油厂榨利盈利增加。下游消费仍偏弱，油厂花 生油库存略降，花生库存维持高位。本周10花生继续反弹，10-1价差上涨。10花生交易新作，市场预期新作种植面积增加，但最近河南等地天 气继续干旱。 ◼ 策略：10花生8100附近逢低短多。 ◼ 期现策略：当前最低仓单在8200元/吨附近，盘面略升水。 ◼ 月差：10-1价差逢低做多。 ◼ 期权策略：可以尝试卖出pk510-p-7800期权策略。 目录 第二章 核心逻辑 ...

苹果周报：走货有所放缓 果价趋于稳定 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 内容摘要 GALAXY FUTURES 1 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 第一部分 逻辑分析及交易策略 栖霞一二级纸袋80#（元/斤） 洛川半商品纸袋70#（元/斤） 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1-1 1-14 1-27 2-9 2-22 3-7 3-20 4-2 4-15 4-28 5-11 5-24 6-6 6-19 7-2 7-15 7-28 8-10 8-23 9-5 9-18 10-1 10-14 10-27 11-9 11-22 12-5 12-18 12-31 栖霞一、二级纸袋80# 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1-1 1-14 1-27 2-9 2-22 3-7 3-20 4-2 4-15 4-28 5-11 5-24 6-6 6-19 7-2 7-15 7-28 8-10 8-23 9-5 9-18 10-1 10-14 10-27 11-9 11-22 12-5 12 ...

鸡蛋周报：蛋价有所回升 下游拿货谨慎 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 第二部分周度数据追踪 GALAXYFUTURES 1 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 成本分析 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 鸡蛋现货分析 目录 内容摘要 GALAXYFUTURES 2 本周鸡蛋主产区均价2.94元/斤，较上周五下跌0.57元/斤，主销区均价3.16元/斤，较上周五相比下跌0.51元/斤。本周主产区价格偏 强上行。周内产区出货节奏偏快，各环节库存压力缓解，叠加市场情绪推动，蛋价强势上涨，当前随着蛋价连续上涨，终端对高价 货源略存抵触，下游二、三批贸易商避险情绪增加，拿货情绪较为谨慎，多以销定采为主。 本周老母鸡价格表现不一，海兰褐等大体型老母鸡 出栏量略少，活禽市场走货顺畅，价格走势偏强，海兰灰等小体型老母鸡，出栏 量偏 多，屠宰企业收购量有限，价格持续走低，综合来看，当前老母鸡出栏受蛋价影响更 为明显，老母鸡价格则处于震荡调整阶段。 鸡蛋主产区现货价格（元/斤） 鸡蛋主销区现货价格（元/斤） 主产区淘汰鸡 ...