1. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - The potential halving of Sino-US fentanyl tariffs boosted market sentiment, and the EC futures market continued to rise. On October 29, EC2512 closed at 1,871 points, up 4.62% from the previous day. The SCFI European line reported $1,246/TEU on October 24, up 8.8% month-on-month, and the latest SCFIS European line reported 1,312.71 points, up 15.11% month-on-month [5][6]. - Spot freight rates have risen significantly. The final settlement price of the EC2510 contract was 1,161.63 points. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US and China will discuss a trade framework to reduce US tariffs on Chinese goods, and the US may halve the fentanyl - related tariffs on China [6]. Logic Analysis - In terms of spot freight rates, the price difference among major shipping companies has widened again. Some shipping companies have lower SPOT prices due to cargo - collection pressure, but the spot price center is expected to gradually rise. For example, MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam WK46 weekly quote decreased by $150 compared to last week, and it also released a PSS quote of $300/FEU for the Far East - Northern Europe route [7]. - Different shipping companies have different price quotes for November. It is expected that spot freight rates will gradually rise from November to December, and shipping companies may continue to raise prices. However, the implementation of price increases needs to be monitored [7]. - On the demand side, shipments are expected to improve from November to December, and the impact of possible tariff improvements on the shipment rhythm should be noted. On the supply side, the weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - Northern Europe 5 - port route will be 241,100/260,400/289,200 TEU in October, November, and December respectively, with a slight increase in December [7]. - Regarding Sino - US ship sanctions, there is an expectation of a reduction in port fees. The progress of the Palestine - Israel cease - fire agreement is tortuous and has recently escalated. The sentiment regarding fentanyl tariffs has eased, and the progress of subsequent negotiations should be followed [7]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: For the EC2512 contract, long positions can be reduced and profits can be taken at high prices. The remaining positions can be rolled with a low - buying strategy. Attention should be paid to the Palestine - Israel negotiations, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and port congestion [8][10]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11]. 2. Industry News - The Wall Street Journal reported that if China takes action to cut the export of fentanyl chemicals, the US will halve the 20% fentanyl - related tariffs on Chinese goods (from 20% to 10%). The expected agreement may be adjusted depending on the meeting between the two sides [11]. - The Wall Street Journal reported that the US and China will lower the port fees imposed on each other [12]. - On October 28th, Hamas denied any connection with the attack on Israeli troops in Rafah, southern Gaza, and emphasized its commitment to the current cease - fire agreement. It also stated that the Israeli military's attacks violated the cease - fire agreement and called on mediators to pressure Israel to stop the violations [12]. - Market news reported that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered the military to immediately launch an attack on Gaza [13]. 3. Market Data Futures Market - For different contracts such as EC2512, EC2602, etc., the report provides closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, trading volume change percentages, open interest, and open - interest change percentages [5]. - The report also presents the month - spread structure, including the price differences and their changes between different contracts [5]. Container Freight Rates - It provides the prices, month - on - month and year - on - year changes of various container freight rates, such as SCFIS European line, SCFIS US West line, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates for different routes like Shanghai - West Africa, Shanghai - South Africa, etc. [5]. Fuel Costs - The prices, month - on - month and year - on - year changes of WTI and Brent crude oil near - month contracts are reported [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of peanuts in Henan continued to decline, while that in the Northeast remained stable. The price of imported peanuts was stable. It is expected that the peanut spot will be relatively weak in the short term [4]. - The price of peanut oil was stable, and the peanut meal was also stable recently. The theoretical profit of oil - mill crushing was acceptable [8]. - The 01 and 05 peanut futures are in a low - level oscillation, and the far - month peanuts may be stronger. The new - season peanut output is expected to be higher than last year, and the 01 peanut will still oscillate weakly [8]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Disk** - PK604 closed at 7932, up 16 (0.20%), with a trading volume of 229 (down 24.17%) and an open interest of 1,809 (down 1.26%) [2]. - PK510 closed at 8152, up 16 (0.20%), with a trading volume of 19 (up 58.33%) and an open interest of 431 (up 1.41%) [2]. - PK601 closed at 7822, up 16 (0.20%), with a trading volume of 68,448 (up 29.61%) and an open interest of 175,747 (down 1.98%) [2]. - **Spot and Basis** - Spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7200, 8400, and 8400 respectively. The price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3250, and that of Rizhao soybean meal was 2970. The price of peanut oil was 14580, and that of Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8270 [2]. - The price of Henan Nanyang peanuts dropped by 1400, and the price of Rizhao soybean meal dropped by 20, and the price of Rizhao first - grade soybean oil dropped by 100 [2]. - The basis of Henan Nanyang peanuts was - 622, and that of Shandong Jining and Linyi was 578. The difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was - 1, and the difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 6310 [2]. - **Import Price** - The price of Sudan peanuts was 8500, and the price of Senegalese peanuts remained unchanged [2]. - **Spread** - The spread of PK01 - PK04 was - 110 (unchanged), PK04 - PK10 was - 220 (unchanged), and PK10 - PK01 was 330 (unchanged) [2]. Second Part: Market Analysis - In the Northeast, the price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.1 yuan/jin, and that in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.1 yuan/jin, both remaining stable. In the Henan production area, the price of Baisha common peanuts was 3.35 - 3.5 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin. The price of peanuts in Junan, Shandong was 4.0 yuan/jin, remaining stable. The price of imported Brazilian new peanuts was 9200 yuan/ton, and that of Indian specification peanuts 50/60 was 8000 yuan/ton, both remaining stable [4]. - Some peanut oil mills started to purchase, with the mainstream transaction price at 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills was 7920 yuan/ton. The price of soybean oil and peanut oil remained stable, with domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 14500 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton [4]. - The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal was relatively strong at 2970 yuan/ton. The unit - protein spread between peanut meal and soybean meal was relatively high, and peanut meal was relatively weak in the short term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3200 yuan/ton [6]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral** - Peanuts 01 and 05 are in a low - level oscillation. It is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Monthly Spread** - Wait and see [10]. - **Options** - Hold the sold pk601 - P - 7600 [11]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report includes six figures, namely the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [13][20][23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn market is in a narrow - range oscillation. Although the US - China relationship has eased recently and the price has rebounded, the high production level remains unchanged. The Chinese market has high import profits for foreign corn, and the domestic corn spot still has room to decline in the short term. Corn starch prices are mainly affected by corn prices and downstream stocking, and the short - term spot is expected to decline, with the 01 - contract on the futures market bottom - oscillating [4][6][7]. - The trading strategy suggests that the US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. For 05 and 01 corn, it is advisable to wait and see. For the spread between 01 corn and starch, one can try to short the spread when it is high. In the options market, a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls with rolling operations is recommended [8][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: Among corn futures contracts, C2601 closed at 2116, down 7 (- 0.33%); C2605 closed at 2221, down 9 (- 0.41%); C2509 closed at 2253, down 8 (- 0.36%). Among corn starch futures contracts, CS2601 closed at 2427, up 3 (0.12%); CS2605 closed at 2540, down 1 (- 0.04%); CS2509 closed at 2590, down 3 (- 0.12%) [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Qinggang was 1970, unchanged; in Guangdong Port, it was 2250, down 20. Starch spot prices were stable. The basis for corn and starch also varied by region [2]. - **Spreads**: In the corn market, the spread of C01 - C05 was - 105, up 2; in the starch market, the spread of CS01 - CS05 was - 113, up 4. The cross - variety spreads also had corresponding changes [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The Chinese market has high import profits for foreign corn. The spot price in the Northeast is falling, while in North China, it has started to stabilize and rebound. The domestic breeding demand is stable, but the corn spot still has room to decline in the short term [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot in Shandong has stabilized. The starch inventory has decreased this week. Due to the significant decline in corn prices, enterprises are making good profits. However, the corn in North China may still decline at the end of October, and the starch spot is expected to follow suit [7]. 3.3 Corn Options The recommended option strategy is a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls with rolling operations [11]. 3.4 Related Attachments The attachments include graphs showing the spot prices of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the spreads of corn 1 - 5, the spreads of corn starch 1 - 5, the basis of corn starch 01 contract, and the spreads of corn starch 01 contract [13][15][20].

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report title: "Meal Daily Report - October 29, 2025" [1] - Report summary: Supply bullish factors are fully reflected, and the overall upward movement of the market is restricted [1] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - **Soybean meal**: The closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2969, 2803, and 2923 respectively, with changes of -6, +8, and +11. Spot basis varies by region, such as 50 in Tianjin, -20 in Dongguan, etc. [3] - **Rapeseed meal**: The closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2373, 2330, and 2426 respectively, with changes of -23, -8, and -7. Spot basis also varies by region, like 37 in Nantong, 127 in Guangdong, etc. [3] Monthly Spreads - **Soybean meal**: The 15 - spread is 166 (down 14 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is -120 (down 3), and the 91 - spread is -46 (up 17). [3] - **Rapeseed meal**: The 15 - spread is 43 (down 15 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is -96 (down 1), and the 91 - spread is 53 (up 16). [3] Cross - Variety Futures Spreads - The 01 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 596 (up from 579 yesterday), and the 09 spread is 497 (up from 479 yesterday). The 01 oil - meal ratio is 2.739 (down from 2.750 yesterday). [3] Spot Spreads - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 473 (up 1 from yesterday), the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal is 270 (down 10), and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal is 673 (up 21). [3] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - **US soybeans**: Although the recent trend is strong, the overall fundamental changes are limited. The market generally expects a slight downward adjustment in the new - crop yield per unit, which supports the price to some extent. The current price reflects the positive impact of US soybean exports, but the upward space is limited without other positive factors. [4] - **South America**: In Brazil, the new - crop sowing has started and is progressing rapidly. Institutions generally expect a bumper harvest. With limited demand growth, the export volume is expected to increase significantly. The old - crop has good export and crushing performance, but the subsequent crushing drive may be limited. In Argentina, the old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and the recent crushing and export have increased significantly, with the pressure improving. [4] Domestic Market - **Soybean meal**: The overall supply and demand are relatively loose. The oil mill operating rate has increased, the supply is sufficient, and the提货 volume has also increased, while the inventory remains high. As of October 24, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills is 2.3674 million tons, the operating rate is 65.13%, the soybean inventory is 7.5129 million tons (down 174,100 tons from last week, a decrease of 2.26%, and up 1.9282 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 34.53%), and the soybean meal inventory is 1.0546 million tons (up 78,400 tons from last week, an increase of 8.03%, and up 1,800 tons year - on - year, an increase of 0.17%). [5] - **Rapeseed meal**: The domestic demand has gradually weakened recently. The oil mill operating rate has decreased, the rapeseed supply is relatively low, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory remains high, with overall supply pressure. As of the week of October 24, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills is 600,000 tons (unchanged from last week), and the rapeseed meal inventory is 710,000 tons (down 70,000 tons from last week). [5] Group 4: Macro - analysis - Recent market is more affected by macro factors. The Sino - US negotiations have released positive signals, leading to a significant increase in the US soybean market. The meeting involves issues such as 301 shipping fees and possible tariff issues for agricultural products. However, the impact on the domestic long - term supply reduction is limited, and the subsequent import volume is still highly uncertain. After the short - term market reaction, the macro impact is expected to be relatively limited, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes. [6] Group 5: Logic Analysis - The market shows a volatile trend. After the previous bullish factors are fully reflected, the upward momentum has decreased. The US soybean market has fully reflected the previous bullish factors and is now in a volatile state. The overall supply in the international soybean market is still relatively loose. The smooth progress of Brazil's new - crop sowing is expected to result in a relatively high yield, with limited price support and obvious overall pressure. The domestic soybean meal supply and demand are relatively loose, and there is still inventory pressure. The rapeseed meal inventory is relatively low, but the demand is also average, and the subsequent import volume is relatively low, with limited price fluctuations. The decline in the monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal today is mainly due to macro factors, and the subsequent decline space is expected to be limited, but there may still be pressure for rapeseed meal monthly spreads due to average demand. [7] Group 6: Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: It is recommended to short the 05 contract [8] - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8] - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8] Group 7: Soybean Pressing Profits - Pressing profits vary by origin, shipping date, and contract. For example, for Brazilian soybeans with a December shipping date, the CNF is 243, the CBOT is 999.25, and the contract is F. The exchange rate is 7.0228, the soybean meal price is 2969, the soybean oil price is 8132. The disk pressing profit is -190.08, the spot pressing profit is -211.58, compared with yesterday's -212.23 and -233.73, with a change of 22.15. [9]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: [Research Institute] Agricultural Products R & D Report - Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [1][3] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall pig price in the country is in a volatile state today. The scale - enterprise's pig -出栏 volume continues to decline, and the overall supply pressure has improved compared with before. The ordinary farmers' enthusiasm for selling pigs has not changed much, and the recent pig - selling volume has decreased. The second - fattening inventory is increasing rapidly, and the entry enthusiasm is high. The supply of large - weight pigs is still sufficient. The subsequent pig spot price is expected to be weak, and the pig price is still under pressure [3][4]. - The pig futures price is in a volatile state. The supply pressure has improved recently, and the futures' reaction to the spot price increase is limited. The far - month futures price begins to decline, and the market is worried about subsequent production capacity release. The futures price is expected to have limited upward space and will mainly operate in a volatile manner [4]. Group 4: Data Summaries Spot Price - Today's average pig spot price is 12.47 yuan/kg, up 0.11 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in different regions show different changes, such as Hubei up 0.20 yuan/kg, Hunan up 0.29 yuan/kg, and Guangdong up 0.35 yuan/kg [3]. Futures Price - Futures contracts such as LH01, LH03, etc. show different price changes. For example, LH01 is up 25 yuan, and LH03 is down 50 yuan [3]. Piglet and Sow Prices - The piglet price this week is 174 yuan, up 9 yuan from last week; the sow price is 1545 yuan, unchanged from last week [3]. Breeding Profits - The self - breeding and self - raising spot breeding profit is - 185.68 yuan/head, up 59.01 yuan from yesterday; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 289.07 yuan/head, up 86.22 yuan from yesterday [3]. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume today is 162,661 heads, down 1,215 heads from yesterday [3]. Price Spreads - The price spreads between different futures contracts and different pig sizes show different changes, such as LH7 - 9 down 20 yuan, and the large - pig to standard - pig price spread up 0.07 yuan [3]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Wait and see [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5] - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7,569.12, up 1.20%. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 187,636 lots, a decrease of 23,657 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 348,768 lots, a decrease of 5,250 lots from the previous day [4][5]. - The main contract of IM rose 1.42% to close at 7,446.4 points. The main contract was at a discount of 122.72 points, an increase of 20.9 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -11.57% [4][5]. 2.2 Main Seats Analysis - In IM2511, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), with a trading volume of 38,281 lots, a decrease of 6,917 lots from the previous day. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) held 26,244 lots, a decrease of 1,382 lots; in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) held 36,616 lots, a decrease of 1,639 lots [18]. 3. IF Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4,747.84, up 1.19%. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 100,933 lots, a decrease of 11,905 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 258,558 lots, an increase of 439 lots from the previous day [23][25]. - The main contract of IF was at a discount of 15.24 points, an increase of 7.13 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -2.26% [25]. 3.2 Main Seats Analysis - In IF2511, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), with a trading volume of 8,593 lots, a decrease of 1,079 lots from the previous day. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) held 6,959 lots, an increase of 107 lots; in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) held 9,299 lots, a decrease of 510 lots [36]. 4. IC Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 500 was 7,480.97, up 1.91%. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 134,767 lots, an increase of 8,363 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 252,815 lots, an increase of 9,663 lots from the previous day [41][42]. - The main contract of IC rose 2.12% to close at 7,390 points. The main contract was at a discount of 90.97 points, an increase of 19.06 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -8.64% [41][42]. 4.2 Main Seats Analysis - In IC2511, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), with a trading volume of 30,054 lots, an increase of 426 lots from the previous day. In terms of long positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) held 21,066 lots, an increase of 1,034 lots; in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) held 23,669 lots, an increase of 1,098 lots [56]. 5. IH Futures 5.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of SSE 50 was 3,063.02, up 0.41%. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 45,105 lots, a decrease of 6,016 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 94,975 lots, a decrease of 762 lots from the previous day [62]. - The main contract of IH rose 0.39% to close at 3,064.8 points. The main contract was at a premium of 1.78 points, an increase of 0.6 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was 0.41% [62][63]. 5.2 Main Seats Analysis - In IH2511, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), with a trading volume of 8,637 lots, a decrease of 1,557 lots from the previous day. In terms of long positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) held 8,450 lots, a decrease of 241 lots; in terms of short positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) held 8,943 lots, a decrease of 186 lots [75].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, a large quantity of peanuts will be on the market. The new - season peanut production is expected to be higher than last year, and the planting cost has decreased. However, the peanut quality in Henan and other regions is poor, and the supply of oil - grade peanuts is sufficient. The peanut spot price still has room to fall, and the price difference between oil - grade peanuts and general peanuts will widen. The peanut inventory in oil mills is low, and the profit from squeezing is good. It is expected that oil mills will purchase a large amount of oil - grade peanuts in November. The decline space of 01 peanut futures is limited, and it will still fluctuate at the bottom [5][52] - The 01 peanut futures will fluctuate between 7700 - 8000 yuan/ton at the bottom, and the 05 peanut futures will fluctuate between 7800 - 8200 yuan/ton at the bottom. The 01 peanut has strong support at 7700 yuan/ton, and the 01 and 05 peanuts can be short - term long at the bottom. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. After the peanut futures price drops, sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [11][52] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. First Part: Preface Summary 1.1 Market Review - In October, the peanut import volume remained low, oil mills had not made large - scale purchases, the peanut quality in Henan and other regions was poor, the peanut spot price dropped significantly, and the peanut price in the Northeast was relatively strong. The downstream demand was still weak, the peanut inventory in oil mills was at a low level, and the operating rate was still low. The prices of peanut oil and peanut meal were relatively weak, but the profit of peanut oil mills was high. Affected by the rainfall in Henan and other regions, the 01 peanut futures first rose and then fell [4] 1.2 Market Outlook - In November, with a large number of peanuts on the market, the new - season peanut production is expected to be higher than last year, and the planting cost has decreased. However, due to the poor peanut quality in Henan and other regions and sufficient supply of oil - grade peanuts, the peanut spot price still has room to fall, and the price difference between oil - grade peanuts and general peanuts will widen. Oil mills have low peanut inventory and good squeezing profit, so they are expected to purchase a large amount of oil - grade peanuts in November. The decline space of 01 peanut futures is limited, and it will still fluctuate at the bottom [5] 1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Short - term long the 01 peanut futures at 7600 - 8000 yuan/ton. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Option: Sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option after the peanut futures price drops [7] 2. Second Part: International Peanut Situation and Market Review - Global peanut production has increased, but peanut imports have decreased significantly. According to FAS data, the global peanut production in 2025 is expected to be 51.78 million tons, including 19 million tons in China, 7.35 million tons in India, 1.8 million tons in Senegal, and 1 million tons in Sudan. The latest data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that the global peanut production in 2025 is 51.74 million tons, with about 19 million tons in China, 7.35 million tons in India, and 4.3 million tons in Nigeria. In 2024, the global peanut crushing volume was 19.28 million tons, accounting for 37.6%. In 2024, the global imported peanut volume was 4.26 million tons, and the exported peanut volume was 4.82 million tons, accounting for 9.4%. Due to lower - than - expected imports from Sudan and Senegal, the imported peanut volume is significantly lower than last year [8] 3. Third Part: Domestic Peanut Fundamental Situation 3.1 New - season Peanuts are Gradually on the Market, and Peanut Prices in Henan have Dropped Significantly - Affected by rainfall during the peanut harvest, the peanut quality is poor, and oil mills have not made large - scale purchases. The price of general peanuts in Henan has dropped significantly, while the peanut price in the Northeast is still strong. For example, the peanut price in Zhengyang, Henan has dropped from 4.3 yuan/jin to 3.4 yuan/jin, and the general peanut price in the Northeast has remained stable at around 4.1 yuan/jin. As peanuts in Henan are gradually on the market, and the peanut quality is poor, it is expected that the price difference between oil - grade peanuts and general peanuts will widen in the later stage. In November, a large number of peanuts will still be on the market. Due to the current low price, it is expected that oil mills may make large - scale purchases, and the decline space of peanut prices is limited [13] 3.2 Imported Peanuts have Decreased Significantly Year - on - Year, and the Price of Imported Peanuts is Relatively Strong - In September, 34,000 tons of peanut kernels were imported, and from January to September, 164,000 tons of peanut kernels were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 71%. Among them, 17,000 tons were imported from Sudan, 17,000 tons from Senegal, 36,000 tons of shelled peanuts from the United States, 40,000 tons from India, and 16,000 tons from Argentina. From January to September, a total of 115,000 tons of peanut kernels were exported, a year - on - year increase of 24%. According to the seasonal pattern of imports, it is expected that the peanut import volume will still be low in November. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import of peanut oil was 291,000 tons, 47% higher than last year. Due to weak domestic peanut oil consumption and high peanut oil inventory in domestic oil mills, it is expected that imports will remain stable in November [22] 3.3 The Operating Rate of Peanut Oil Mills is Still Low, and the Peanut Inventory in Oil Mills is Still at a Low Level - In October, a large number of peanuts were on the market at a low price. Although oil mills theoretically had squeezing profit, the operating rate was still at a low level, and the peanut inventory in oil mills was still low. As of October 24, the operating rate of peanut oil mills was 7.86%, and the peanut inventory was 35,000 tons, lower than 43,000 tons in the same period last month and 54,000 tons in the same period last year. The price of peanut meal was relatively stable, the price of peanut oil was stable, and the purchase price of peanuts was low, so oil mills had theoretical squeezing profit. As of October 23, the squeezing profit of peanut oil mills was 230 yuan/ton, lower than 290 yuan/ton last month but higher than - 21 yuan/ton in the same period last year. The squeezing profit of oil mills mainly comes from peanut oil. Generally, the contribution ratio of peanut oil and peanut meal to squeezing profit is between 2 - 4. As of the end of October, the profit of peanut oil for oil mills was 3.43 times that of peanut meal, and the theoretical break - even price of peanuts was 7911 yuan/ton. In November, with the concentrated listing of new - season peanuts, oil mills are expected to gradually build up inventory due to profit and low inventory. The operating rate of peanut oil mills will increase, and the peanut inventory will also increase [31] 3.4 The Planting Area of New - season Peanuts has Increased, the Planting Cost has Decreased, and the Production is Higher than Last Year - In 2025, the peanut planting area increased year - on - year. Although there was partial production reduction in some regions such as Henan, the national peanut production was slightly higher than last year. After removing land rent, the planting cost was basically between 600 (excluding seeds) - 800 yuan/ton, mostly 800 yuan/ton, and the seed cost decreased slightly. In some regions such as Henan, which have two crops a year, the planting cost is relatively low. In Jilin, the land rent decreased by 100 - 200 yuan/mu compared with last year. Including land rent, the cost was 1700 yuan/mu. Calculated at 450 jin/mu (peanut kernels), the cost of peanut kernels in Jilin was 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin. Considering the impact of rainfall in Henan, the harvest cost increased, but the cost in the Northeast remained stable [48] 4. Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Due to continuous rainfall during the peanut harvest in Henan and other regions, there was partial production reduction in some areas, the harvest cost increased, and the peanut quality was poor. However, the national production was slightly higher than last year, the supply of oil - grade peanuts was sufficient, and oil mills had not made large - scale purchases, so the peanut spot price in Henan dropped significantly. In November, a large number of peanuts will still be on the market. Oil mills have profit, the operating rate will increase, and the peanut import volume is expected to remain low. It is expected that oil mills will make large - scale purchases. The decline space of peanut prices in November is limited, and the price difference between oil - grade peanuts and general peanuts will widen. The 01 peanut futures will fluctuate between 7700 - 8000 yuan/ton at the bottom, and the 05 peanut futures will fluctuate between 7800 - 8200 yuan/ton at the bottom [52] - Trading Strategy: The production of new - season peanuts is higher than last year, and the planting cost has decreased. The peanut price in Henan has dropped significantly, but oil mills already have profit, and the peanut inventory in oil mills is low. It is expected that oil mills will make large - scale purchases, and the decline space of peanut prices is limited. However, the peanut oil inventory is still high, and the downstream demand is still weak, so the rebound space of peanuts is also limited. The 01 peanut futures are expected to have support at around 7600 yuan/ton, and the 05 peanut futures have support at 7700 yuan/ton. Operationally, short - term long the 01 and 05 peanut futures at the bottom. For arbitrage, wait and see. After the peanut futures price drops, sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [52]

棉系周报：收购进入高峰 棉价震荡略偏强 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 137/137/137 246/206/207 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 10 月 29 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/29 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8132 | (50) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8362 | | | | 8432 | 8302 | | 300 | 0 | 230 | 10 | 170 | 10 | | 棕榈油 | 8842 | (116) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8742 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp rise in US stocks will reignite the sentiment in the A-share market, and the market is expected to resume its upward movement on Wednesday, maintaining a volatile upward trend [17][19]. - For treasury bond futures, the profit-taking in the cash bond market is increasing, and investors should focus on structural opportunities. While the policy risk for going long on futures bonds has decreased, the potential for a continuous decline in treasury bond yields remains limited [20][21]. - In the agricultural products sector, the price of soybeans in the US is rising, providing strong cost support for domestic soybean meal. The international sugar market is weak, while the domestic sugar market is relatively strong. The short - term trend of the oil and fat sector is slightly weak, and the corn market is experiencing increased supply and weakening prices [22][25][28]. - In the black metals sector, steel and ore prices are rising in succession, but the upside potential is limited. Coking coal and coke have support at the bottom but face resistance when rising. Iron ore prices are expected to be bearish at high levels [56][59][61]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, precious metals are experiencing a downward adjustment due to the easing of risk factors. Copper prices are waiting for a breakthrough opportunity as downstream acceptance is currently insufficient. Alumina prices are bottoming out with potential production cuts in the future [67][71][78]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the impact of sanctions on crude oil has been fully priced in, and the pressure of oversupply remains. The cost of asphalt provides no positive support, and the supply - demand situation is weakening on the margin [16]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Investment Logic**: The sharp rise in US stocks will reignite the sentiment in the A - share market. Although the stock index pulled back on Tuesday, the market is expected to resume its upward movement on Wednesday [17][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips without chasing high prices. Consider cash - and - carry arbitrage by going long on IM\IC 2512 and short on ETFs. Buy call options on the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index, the STAR Market 50 Index, and the ChiNext Index on dips [20]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Investment Logic**: The profit - taking in the cash bond market is increasing. While the policy risk for going long on futures bonds has decreased, the potential for a continuous decline in treasury bond yields remains limited [20][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on dips. Consider shorting the inter - delivery spread or flattening the yield curve (TL - 3T) [22]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Investment Logic**: The upward movement of the US soybean market is driven by the improvement in the macro environment, but the international soybean supply pressure is still high. Domestic soybean meal prices have risen significantly due to cost factors, but the upside potential is limited [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short a small amount of far - month contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle option strategy [25]. Sugar - **Investment Logic**: The international sugar market is facing increased production in major producing areas, with a weak fundamental outlook. In the domestic market, the suspension of imports of some pre - mixed powders and the start of sugar mill operations are expected to support prices in the short term [26][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international sugar price is expected to be weak in the long - term but may rebound in the short - term. The domestic market is expected to be strong in the short - term. Short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [28][29]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Investment Logic**: The production and export growth of Malaysian palm oil in October has slowed down, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly. Domestic soybean oil is slightly accumulating inventory, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, providing some support for prices. The short - term trend of the oil and fat sector is slightly weak [30][33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see in the short - term. Consider going long on dips after the price stabilizes. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [33]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Investment Logic**: The supply of corn is increasing, and the price of the futures market is expected to be weak and volatile. The US corn market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the December CBOT corn futures on dips. Wait and see for the January contract. Wait for dips to go long on the May and July contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Live Pigs - **Investment Logic**: The short - term pressure on live pig supply has improved, but the overall inventory is still high, and the supply pressure remains. The price of live pigs is expected to face some downward pressure [37][38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short a small amount of contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle option strategy [39]. Peanuts - **Investment Logic**: The spot price of peanuts is falling, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile. The new - season peanut quality is lower than last year, and the market is waiting for the supply to increase [40][41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the January and May contracts. Sell the PK601 - P - 7600 option [41]. Eggs - **Investment Logic**: The number of culled laying hens has increased, and the egg price has stabilized. The supply of laying hens is still at a high level, and the demand is average. The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term [42][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close out previous short positions and wait and see. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [46]. Apples - **Investment Logic**: The quality of the new - season apples is poor, and the good - fruit rate is low. The cost of making apple warehouse receipts is high, and the inventory is expected to be lower than expected. The apple price has shown a strong trend recently, but the upward potential is limited [47][49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close out previous long positions and wait and see. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Investment Logic**: The cotton purchase is at its peak, and the purchase price is stable. The demand side has not changed significantly. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations have reached a preliminary consensus, and the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly strong [52][53]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US cotton is expected to be range - bound. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly strong. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [53]. Black Metals Steel - **Investment Logic**: The demand for steel is gradually recovering, and the inventory is shifting from the factory to the social level. The price of coking coal is rising, providing support for steel prices. However, the high inventory of plate products and the slowdown in capital release in the fourth quarter still pose pressure on steel prices [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: The steel price is expected to be slightly strong and volatile. Go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Wait and see for options [58]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Logic**: The price of coking coal is strong, and the second - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented. The supply of coking coal is restricted by safety regulations, but the increase in imported Mongolian coal and the reduction in steel mill demand limit the upward potential of prices [59][60]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile at high levels. Close out long positions and consider going long on dips in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [61]. Iron Ore - **Investment Logic**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The domestic iron element inventory has been increasing since the third quarter, and the price of iron ore is expected to be bearish [62][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be under pressure at high levels. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [64]. Ferroalloys - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic sentiment is fading, and the supply - demand pressure in the ferroalloy market remains. The production of silicon iron and manganese silicon is still at a high level, while the demand is affected by steel production cuts [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider shorting as the supply - demand pressure persists. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell an out - of - the - money straddle option combination [65][66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Investment Logic**: The improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the expected cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict have reduced market risk aversion, leading to a downward adjustment in precious metal prices [67][69]. - **Trading Strategy**: The precious metal market may continue to adjust. Close out previous long positions and wait for a signal of the end of the correction. Aggressive investors can short with a stop - loss. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [69]. Copper - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic sentiment has improved, and the supply of copper ore is facing more disruptions. The expected processing fee for next year is very low. The supply of electrolytic copper is relatively tight, but the downstream consumption is weak, and the acceptance of high prices is low [72][73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips and beware of short - term pullbacks. Hold a long position in the inter - market spread. Consider a long position in the inter - delivery spread after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Wait and see for options [74]. Alumina - **Investment Logic**: The supply of alumina is in surplus, and the pressure is increasing as the downstream inventory build - up is completed. High - cost alumina producers may face more cost pressure, and future production cuts are expected. The price is currently bottoming out [77][78]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to bottom out in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [78][79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Investment Logic**: The global trade situation is easing, and the macro - economic sentiment is positive. Overseas electrolytic aluminum production is decreasing, and the domestic real estate completion area has shown a slight recovery. The medium - term trend of aluminum prices is expected to be strong [80][81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to be strong and volatile. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [82]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic outlook is improving, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing cost support. The demand is resilient, and the low factory inventory supports the price. The short - term price of ADC12 is expected to remain firm [83][84]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of aluminum alloy is expected to be strong and volatile following the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [84]. Zinc - **Investment Logic**: The domestic zinc concentrate market is tight, and the processing fee is decreasing. The supply of refined zinc is expected to increase, while the demand is expected to weaken as the peak season ends. The LME zinc price is relatively strong due to low inventory. The short - term trend is range - bound [85][87]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close out profitable long positions and wait and see. Consider shorting at high levels if the export volume is low. Consider a long position in SHFE zinc and a short position in LME zinc based on the export situation. Wait and see for options [87]. Lead - **Investment Logic**: Some lead - acid battery manufacturers are reducing production to avoid inventory risks, while the supply of recycled lead is expected to increase. The lead price may continue to decline as the supply increases and the demand enters the off - season [89][91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions and beware of the impact of capital on the lead price. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell an out - of - the - money call option [91]. Nickel - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic situation is favorable, but the supply - demand relationship is loose. The nickel price is expected to remain within a range [92]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided in the text. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Investment Logic**: The impact of sanctions on crude oil has been fully priced in, and the pressure of oversupply remains [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided in the text. Other Energy and Chemical Products - **Investment Logic and Trading Strategy**: Each product has its own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. For example, asphalt has no positive cost support and weakening supply - demand on the margin; PVC is in a weak and volatile state; glass prices are rising due to improved sales and production [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The trading strategies for each product vary, including shorting, reducing long positions, and waiting and seeing [16].