大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 09 月 09 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 805.0 | 792.0 | 13.0 | I01-I05 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 0.0 | | DCE05 | 781.0 | 768.0 | 13.0 | I05-I09 | -69.0 | -82.0 | 13.0 | | DCE09 | 850.0 | 850.0 | 0.0 | I09-I01 | 45.0 | 58.0 | -13.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 773 | 770 | 3 | 842 | 42 | 66 | -16 | | 纽曼粉 | 780 | 777 | 3 | 834 | 34 | 58 | -24 | | 麦克粉 | 771 | 771 | 0 | 837 | 37 | 61 | ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 第二部分 行情研判 玉米： 美玉米反弹，后期可能下调美玉米单产，美玉米仍有反弹空间。中国对美玉米回 到 15%关税，配额内共计 26%关税，对美国高粱共计 22%关税，国外玉米进口利润较 高，12 月巴西进口价格 2134 元。今日北方港口平仓价稳定，基本 2310 元附近，东北 1 / 5 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 9 月 9 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/9/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2188 | -17 | -0.78% | 212,314 | 66.47% | 422,662 | 2.00% | | C2605 | | 2254 | -14 | -0.62% | 21,536 | 49.86% | 78,661 | 0.08% | ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 9 月 9 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： Z0018389 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/9/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | | 7860 | -34 | -0.43% | 50 | 31.58% | 430 | 2.38% | | PK510 | | 7884 | -104 | -1.32% | 14,335 | 62.57% | 30,404 | -8.91% | | PK601 | | 7834 | -56 | -0.71% | 13,889 | 15.03% | 35,718 | 3.96% | | 现货与基差 | | | ...

目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 5 | | | 聚酯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 | 品种 | 逻辑分析 | 交易策略 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周PX&PTA期货主力合约价格下行，OPEC 计划 10 月份再度增产，油价大幅回落，PX/PTA 成本重心下移。本周金陵石 ...

苯乙烯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 17 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 n 纯苯： 【交易策略】 单边：震荡整理 套利：观望 期权：观望 GALAXY FUTURES 2 n 本周油价先强后弱，纯苯期货价格先抑后扬，周四中石化纯苯挂牌价格下调100元/吨，周五受计划外装置检修影响市场情绪提振价格反弹。周内纯苯市场交投气氛整 体偏弱，山东市场炼厂库存下降， 工厂挺价意愿强，山东对华东纯苯价差走强，纯苯对石脑油和苯乙烯价差走弱，区域间套利窗口仍呈关闭状态。 n 本周纯苯供增需减，港口库存上升。供应方面，华东一炼厂一套重整装置计划9月停车检修2周左右，另外两套重整装置提负荷运行，纯苯月产量下降10%左右，其余 在检修装置不多。新装置方面，山东裕龙一套裂解乙烯新装置计划9月中旬陆续投产，涉及纯苯产能23万吨/年左右，甲苯13万吨/年，二甲苯6万吨/年；河南丰利石 化一重整新装置预计9月底投产，涉及甲苯产能21万吨/年，二甲苯产能31 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the lithium market showed mixed trends. The lithium ore news was calm, with increased shipments from Australian mines in September and potential further increases from African mines. Lithium salt production increased slightly, but the smelter's available inventory declined rapidly. The demand was boosted by a significant increase in energy - storage orders, and spot procurement was active. The lithium price rebounded with increased positions, showing signs of stabilization. [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Demand Analysis 1.1 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Sales**: From January to July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 41.4% and 40.3%. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 44.3% of the total new vehicle sales. In August, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.3 million, a year - on - year increase of 24% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. From January to August, the cumulative wholesale was 8.93 million, a year - on - year increase of 34%. The power cell production increased significantly in August, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 47% to 748.5GWh from January to August. [13] - **Overseas Markets**: From January to June 2025, the global new energy vehicle sales increased by 30.8% year - on - year to 9.55 million. The US sales increased by 0.6% year - on - year to 828,000, and the European sales increased by 22.4% year - on - year to 1.756 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to July 2025 increased by 81% year - on - year to 1.281 million. The US will cancel the IRA subsidy for new energy vehicles on September 30, which may stimulate pre - delivery exports. [18] 1.2 Energy - Storage Market - In June 2025, the domestic newly commissioned new - type energy - storage project installed capacity was 2.33GW/5.63GWh, with year - on - year and month - on - month declines. In the first half of 2025, the national new - type energy - storage installed capacity reached 94.91GW/222GWh, a growth of about 29%/32% compared to the end of 2024. The new installed capacity increased by over 62% year - on - year. The "rush - to - export" demand and中标 projects in the Middle East, South America, and Australia supported the energy - storage demand. From January to August, the cumulative production of Chinese energy - storage cells was 302.4GWh, a year - on - year increase of 59%. [23] 1.3 Battery and Cathode Production Scheduling in August - In August, the production scheduling of 6 battery enterprises was 110.3GWh, a year - on - year increase of 43% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The production scheduling of 6 cathode enterprises was 147,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. It is expected that the orders will increase by 5 - 10% month - on - month during September - November. [28] 2. Supply Analysis 2.1 Weekly Lithium Carbonate Production - From January to August, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 596,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40%. The production scheduling for September was 86,700 tons. However, due to the shutdown of a top - tier mine in Jiangxi and the reduction of mica smelter production, along with the decrease in processing profit after the price drop, the domestic lithium carbonate production in September is expected to be lower than the scheduling and August's output. [32] 2.2 Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material in China - Not elaborated in detail in the given text, mainly presented in graphical form. 2.3 Lithium Carbonate Supply in August and September - From January to July 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 132,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%. From January to August, Chile's lithium salt exports to China increased by 3% year - on - year to 151,000 tons, with a 14% decrease in lithium carbonate and a 127% increase in lithium sulfate. [41] 3. Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Balance Estimation - Not elaborated in detail in the given text, mainly presented in graphical form. 3.2 Continuous Lithium Carbonate Inventory Reduction with Expanding Magnitude - Lithium carbonate production has shifted to reduction and inventory clearance. The proportion of customer - supplied materials has decreased, and spot procurement has increased significantly. The smelter's inventory is low, mostly pre - sold. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts have increased rapidly, actually locking the spot into the futures. [49] Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral**: This week, the lithium price rebounded with increased positions, showing signs of stabilization. Pay attention to whether it can break through the 5 - day moving average for further rebound [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [5]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options on the 2511 contract [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans/meal, the decline in US soybeans reflects demand - side impacts, with limited downside space. Brazilian soybeans also have limited deep - decline space due to cost support. In the domestic market, high soybean arrivals lead to supply pressure and inventory pressure on bean meal [2][5][7]. - For sugar, globally, with Brazil's supply peak, inventory is expected to accumulate, and there is a high expectation of sugar production increase, with prices likely to fall further. In the domestic market, low domestic sugar inventory is offset by large - scale imports, and potential policy relaxation may put some pressure on sugar prices [12]. - For the oilseeds and oils sector, Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase production and inventory in August, while Indonesian inventory is low. Short - term oil prices are in a correction, and there may be opportunities to go long after the correction [18][19]. - For corn/corn starch, US corn futures are rising, and there is room for a rebound. In the domestic market, supply is tight, but prices in North China are falling, and the 01 corn contract may still decline [20][25]. - For hogs, although the supply pressure has decreased, high inventory and large出栏 weights still put downward pressure on prices [31]. - For peanuts, the supply of new peanuts is limited, and the market is stable. The 01 peanut contract is in short - term bottom - range oscillation, and there is an expectation of increased production [33][36]. - For eggs, the supply - side pressure has eased slightly, but the supply - surplus situation remains. There is an expected increase in demand in September, and prices may rise slightly [44]. - For apples, the new - season apple production is expected to be similar to this season, but the low premium fruit rate may lead to high initial prices. The short - term futures market is expected to be slightly strong [51][52]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, as new cotton enters the acquisition period, there will be selling - hedging pressure on the futures market. The demand in the peak season is expected to have limited impact on prices, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly weak [59]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans/Meal - **Market Conditions**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.81% to 1051.75 cents/bushel, and CBOT bean meal index rose 0.56% to 288.7 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Relevant Information**: As of September 8, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 64% (down from 65% the previous week). As of September 4, the US soybean export inspection volume was 452151 tons. In the first week of September 2025, Brazil shipped 100.6 tons of soybeans, with a daily average of 20.12 tons/day, a 30.81% decrease from September 2024. As of September 5, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 230.39 tons, with an operating rate of 64.76%. Soybean inventory was 731.7 tons, a 5% increase from last week [2][3][4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on the far - month contracts of bean and rapeseed meal at low prices, expand the MRM05 spread, and buy call options [8]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: ICE US raw sugar rose 0.06 (0.39%) to 15.64 cents/pound, and London white sugar rose 1.6 (0.33%) to 481.1 dollars/ton [9]. - **Relevant Information**: In the 2024/25 season, Vietnam's sugar production reached over 126.6 tons, a 14.2% increase. Copersucar acquired Raizen's assets, increasing its annual sugar - cane processing capacity by nearly 9 million tons. Inner Mongolia's first sugar factory started production on September 8, 4 days earlier than last year [10][11]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go short on Zhengzhou sugar at high prices in the range, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [13]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: CBOT US soybean oil changed by 0.16% to 51.40 cents/pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil changed by 0.88% to 4488 ringgit/ton [16]. - **Relevant Information**: From September 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 6.28% compared to the same period last month. As of September 7, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 64%. As of September 5, the national palm oil commercial inventory was 61.93 tons, a 1.51% increase from last week, and the national soybean oil commercial inventory was 125.13 tons, a 1.01% increase [16][17]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on oils after the correction, wait and see for arbitrage and options [19]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Conditions**: CBOT corn futures rose, with the December contract rising 1.1% to 421.5 cents/bushel [20]. - **Relevant Information**: In the first week of September 2025, 129.74 tons of corn were shipped, with a daily average of 25.95 tons/day, a 15.15% decrease from September 2024. As of September 7, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 68%, and the harvest rate was 4% [21]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on the December US corn contract on dips, go short or wait and see for the 01 corn contract, wait and see for arbitrage and options [26][27][28]. Hogs - **Market Conditions**: Hog prices in all regions showed a downward trend [30]. - **Relevant Information**: On September 8, the national average wholesale price of pork rose 1.3% to 20.10 yuan/kg [31]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go short on the near - month contracts at high prices, conduct LH15 reverse arbitrage, and buy far - month call options [32]. Peanuts - **Market Conditions**: The average price of national peanut kernels was stable at 4.23 yuan/jin [33]. - **Relevant Information**: Oil mills'开机 rates were low, and the demand for pressing was small. Peanut oil prices were stable, and peanut meal was in short supply. As of September 4, the peanut inventory of sample enterprises decreased [33][35]. - **Trading Strategies**: The 11 and 01 peanut contracts are in bottom - range oscillation, go long on the 05 peanut contract with a light position, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [37][38][39]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas rose to 3.36 yuan/jin, and in the main selling areas to 3.44 yuan/jin [42]. - **Relevant Information**: In August, the inventory of laying hens increased, and the number of egg - chick hatchings decreased. In the week of September 4, the number of culled hens decreased, and the average culling age was 495 days. As of August 28, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas increased [43]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see for all trading strategies [45][47]. Apples - **Market Conditions**: As of September 3, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 27.35 tons, a decrease of 6.62 tons from last week [48]. - **Relevant Information**: In July, apple exports increased by 44.95% month - on - month, and imports decreased by 5.73% month - on - month. The trading of early - maturing apples is coming to an end, and the supply of high - quality late - maturing apples is limited [48][49]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on the new - season apple contract at low prices, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options [53][54]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Conditions**: ICE US cotton rose 0.19 (0.29%) to 66.28 cents/pound [55]. - **Relevant Information**: As of September 6, the Indian cotton planting area was 10.877 million hectares, a 3% decrease year - on - year. As of September 7, the US cotton boll - opening rate was 40%, and the harvest progress was 8%. As of August 31, Pakistan's new - cotton listing volume increased by 9% year - on - year [56][57]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go short on Zhengzhou cotton at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage and options [59].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost side shows that propane has been strong recently, with prices rising in some regions, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm remains low and market activity is average. Supply-wise, domestic propylene production started slightly decreasing this week, but is expected to recover in September as several plants are set to restart, and there are few new maintenance plans. With multiple plants scheduled to be put into production in Q3, the propylene market will become more relaxed. Downstream demand provides relatively stable support, but overall profits are not good, and the ability to accept propylene prices is gradually decreasing. The trading strategy suggests a low-level oscillation for single-side trading, closing the PL01 - 02 reverse spread for arbitrage, and taking a wait-and-see approach for options [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Propane is strong on the cost side, with some regional price increases and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Domestic propylene production started slightly decreased this week, but is expected to rise in September. Multiple plants are set to be put into production in Q3, increasing supply and relaxing the market. Downstream demand has stable support but poor profits, and the ability to accept propylene prices is declining [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single-side trading should expect low-level oscillation; close the PL01 - 02 reverse spread for arbitrage; take a wait-and-see approach for options [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis and Data Tracking - **This Week's Market Review**: Propylene futures oscillated narrowly at a low level this week, with the main 2601 contract oscillating between 6360 - 6440. The mainstream price of the propylene market moved up overall, with the mainstream price in the Shandong market at 6590 - 6620 yuan/ton as of Friday, a week-on-week increase of 30 yuan/ton. Propane has been strong recently, with the CIF price of East China frozen propane at 596 US dollars/ton, a week-on-week increase of 6 US dollars/ton. The CFR price of Far East propylene in China is 790 - 795 US dollars/ton, a week-on-week increase of 5 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Propane Import and Supply**: The CIF price of propane imports increased this week. High prices have led to downstream wait-and-see attitudes, and purchasing enthusiasm remains low. Market activity is average. Next week, imported resources will arrive successively, and the tight supply situation at some terminals may gradually ease [13]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: As of Thursday, the overall domestic propylene capacity utilization was 76.02%, a week-on-week increase of 0.27%. The gas fractionation unit of Hualian Petrochemical restarted this week, and several other plants such as Wanhua Chemical, Hebei Haiwei, Dongming Petrochemical, and Zhenhua Petrochemical will restart from early to mid-September. There are few new maintenance plans in September, so propylene production is expected to increase [15]. - **Import and Export**: Propylene imports mainly flow to Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, followed by Fujian and Shanghai. After April, Sino-US tariffs caused instability in some downstream PDH plants, leading to increased imports from May to July. South Korea is the largest source of propylene imports, accounting for 67.67% [17]. - **Production Profit**: Most downstream propylene product prices decreased this week, and the cost pressure on downstream products is increasing. The ability to accept propylene prices is gradually decreasing. Most downstream products have poor profits, remaining below the break-even line. Only octanol is currently profitable, and acrylic acid and butanol have periodic profitability [28]. - **Related Price Spreads**: The document provides data on various propylene-related price spreads such as PL01 - 02 month spread, PP01 - PL01, PL01 - PG01, and PL01 - 3MA, but no specific analysis is given [30].

印尼暴乱未波及生产 镍价冲高回落 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 价差追踪与库存 4 第二章 基本面分析 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 镍交易逻辑及策略 需求端 美国8月非农就业人数低于预期和前值，9月降息预期升温，但有色市场整体回落，反映市场对衰退的担忧。 9月不锈钢和三元前驱体排产环比继续增长，原生镍需求稳中有升。 进口价差维持在2000元/吨之内，预计8月精炼镍仍为净进口。 供应端 交易逻辑及策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 供应端，8月精炼镍企业采购充足原料，产量进一步提高。 印尼暴乱一度引发市场对生产的担忧，但示威行动主要针对政府官员，并未波及主产区以及镍的生产经营 活动，且印尼总统参加中国阅兵被视为当地暴乱已经得到控制。 菲律宾本周签署《大规模金属采矿强化财政制度法案》，要求指定矿区内矿山支付5%特许使用权费，目前 大部分矿山已经支付该费用，对矿山成本影响有限，后续关注暴利税的征收。 美国就业数据不佳，市场担忧衰退风险，降息对有色的刺激作用打折。本周LME库存大幅增加，主要增在 亚洲仓库，反映中国精炼镍仍然较为 ...

2025 年 9 月 9 日 银河能化-20250909 早报 【银河期货】原油期货早报（25-09-09） 【市场回顾】 原油结算价：WTI2510 合约 62.26 涨 0.39 美元/桶，环比+0.63%；Brent2511 合约 66.02 涨 0.52 美元/桶，环比+0.79%。SC2510 合约跌 6.1 至 476.2 元/桶，夜盘涨 4.0 至 480.2 元/ 桶。Brent 主力-次行价差 0.36 美金/桶。 【相关资讯】 沙特阿拉伯将 10 月销往亚洲的阿拉伯轻质原油官方售价定为比阿曼/迪拜原油均价高出每 桶 2.20 美元，较 9 月价格下调了 1 美元；降价幅度超过路透对炼油行业人士调查中预期的 40 至 70 美分。 巴克莱银行将 2026 年的布兰特原油价格预期下调 4 美元，至每桶 66 美元，理由是预计 OPEC+将在明年 9 月之前完全解除自愿减产。 据英国金融时报(FT)报导，欧盟官员正在讨论对中国和其他购买俄罗斯石油和天然气的第 三国实施制裁的可能性，以回应美国的希望。 周一，欧佩克秘书处收到上述八国中除了阿尔及利亚和沙特阿拉伯以外的六国从今年 8 月 份到明年 6 ...