Report Title - Peanut Spot Strong, Peanut Futures Strong and Volatile [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The trading volume of peanuts has increased, the prices of Henan general peanuts and Northeast peanuts are strong, the prices of Shandong peanuts and imported peanuts are stable, the operating rate of oil mills has risen, the purchase prices are stable, the spot price of peanut meal has increased significantly, the price of peanut oil is stable, and the profit of oil mills has expanded. However, downstream consumption remains weak, and the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in oil mills has increased. It is recommended to sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option strategy, and go long on 05 peanuts lightly at low prices, while keeping a wait - and - see attitude towards the spread [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Option Strategy**: Sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option strategy [5] - **Trading Logic**: The trading volume of peanuts has increased, the price of Henan general peanuts is strong, the price of Shandong peanuts is stable, the price of Northeast peanuts is strong, the price of imported peanuts is stable, the operating rate of oil mills has risen, the purchase prices are stable, the spot price of peanut meal has increased significantly, the price of peanut oil is stable, and the profit of oil mills has expanded. Downstream consumption remains weak, and the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in oil mills has increased. The market is trading on the rise in crude oil, and the price of peanut meal has risen significantly, leading to an increase in the profit of oil mills and an increase in the purchase volume. The spot price of Northeast peanuts is strong, the price difference between Northeast and Henan peanuts remains high, there is an ample supply of oil - used peanuts in Henan and other places, the price of Senegalese peanuts is low, but the cost of warehouse receipts is currently around 8,000 yuan/ton. This week, 05 peanuts fluctuated and rose, and the 5 - 10 spread increased [6] - **Strategy**: Go long on 05 peanuts lightly at low prices [6] - **Spread**: Keep a wait - and - see attitude [6] 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Peanut Price - **Domestic Peanuts**: The price of Henan peanuts is stable, and the price of Northeast peanuts is strong. The price of large peanuts in Junan, Shandong is 3.4 yuan/jin, remaining stable compared with last week; the price of new - season peanuts in Zhengyang, Henan is 3.55 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.05 yuan/jin compared with last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Changtu, Liaoning is 4.65 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.05 yuan/jin compared with last week; the price of Huayu 23 peanuts in Xingcheng, Liaoning is 4.37 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.07 yuan/jin compared with last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin is 4.6 yuan/jin, remaining stable compared with last week. The trading volume of general peanuts is average, and the price of Henan peanuts is relatively stable [11] - **Oil - Mill Oil - Used Peanuts**: The purchase prices of oil mills are stable, generally ranging from 7,200 to 7,600 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with last week [11] - **Imported Peanuts**: The price of Sudan refined peanuts is 8,600 yuan/ton, the price of Senegalese oil - used peanuts is 7,200 yuan/ton, and the price of commercial peanuts is 7,700 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with last week [11] 3.2.2 Domestic Demand - **Oil - Mill Operating Rate**: The operating rate of oil mills has increased. As of March 12, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 13.28%, a week - on - week increase of 10.15% [15] - **Oil - Mill Inventory**: The arrival volume of oil mills this week is 23,100 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared with last week. The peanut inventory of oil mills is 199,100 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons compared with last week. The peanut oil inventory is 41,300 tons, an increase of 200 tons compared with last week [15] 3.2.3 Pressing Profit - **Pressing Profit**: The purchase price of peanut oil mills is stable, the price of peanut meal has risen, and the price of peanut oil is stable. As a result, the pressing profit of oil mills is 184 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 81 yuan/ton [19] - **Peanut Oil Price**: The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,300 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with last week, and the price of small - squeezed concentrated sesame oil is 16,300 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with last week [19] - **Peanut Meal**: Due to the weak spot price of soybean meal, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and the price of peanut meal is stable. This week, it is 3,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared with last week [19] 3.2.4 Basis and Spread - **Spread**: This week, due to the fluctuating rise of 05 peanuts, the 5 - 10 spread of peanuts is strong, stabilizing around - 170 yuan [24] - **Spot - Futures Price Difference**: The basis is stable [24] 3.2.5 Peanut Import - **Peanut Kernel Import**: In December, the import volume of peanut kernels is 25,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December is 252,000 tons, a decrease of 66% compared with the same period last year [28] - **Peanut Kernel Export**: In December, the export volume of peanut kernels is 58,000 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December is 212,000 tons, an increase of 47% compared with the same period last year [28] - **Peanut Oil Import**: In December, the import volume of peanut oil is 37,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume of peanut oil from January to December is 402,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 58% [28] 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides a series of data charts, including the price of Shandong general peanut kernels, the price of oil - mill purchased peanut kernels, the basis between Shandong spot and continuous contracts, the operating rate of peanut oil mills, the peanut kernel inventory and pressing volume of peanut oil mills, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal, the price of Shandong peanut oil, the price difference between different peanut contracts, the import and export volume of peanut kernels and peanut oil, etc. [10][14][18][23][27][33][38][41][44][51][55][57][60][62][63][65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 3 - month USDA report is the same as last month. Due to the continued rise in crude oil this week, US corn has reached its highest level since January. The US corn 05 contract has risen to around 460 cents per bushel. The import profit of US corn and Brazilian corn is relatively high. After the Spring Festival, with the warming weather, farmers are selling more grain, and traders and downstream buyers are replenishing their stocks. Corn spot prices are rising, and port inventories are still low. However, the wheat auction volume has increased this week. It is expected that farmers will sell more grain in March, but the downstream and channel inventories are still low, so the spot price is expected to remain stable. The price difference between wheat and corn in North China has narrowed, and it is expected that the supply of North China corn will increase next week. The increase in supply at the northern ports in the short - term, combined with the increase in wheat auction volume, but the downstream inventory is still low, so the callback of the 05 corn contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the auctions of brown rice and corn, as well as the impact of rising crude oil on corn [4]. - The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 has improved, and starch inventory has decreased, remaining lower than last year. The sharp rise in corn spot prices has led to a significant increase in starch spot prices. Starch enterprises are making good profits. It is expected that the supply of corn spot will increase next week, and by - product prices are high, so the starch spot price is expected to remain strong. The 05 corn starch contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level following corn [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: The 3 - month USDA report is flat compared to last month. Crude oil has pushed up US corn prices. The 05 contract of US corn has reached 460 cents per bushel. The import profit of US and Brazilian corn is high. After the Spring Festival, the increase in farmers' grain sales and downstream replenishment has led to an increase in corn spot prices. Although the wheat auction volume has increased this week, it is expected that the corn spot price will remain stable in March due to low downstream inventories. The price difference between wheat and corn in North China has narrowed, and it is expected that the supply of North China corn will increase next week. The increase in supply at the northern ports in the short - term and the increase in wheat auction volume will limit the callback of the 05 corn contract. Attention should be paid to the auctions of brown rice and corn and the impact of crude oil [4]. - **Starch**: The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 has improved, and starch inventory has decreased. The sharp rise in corn prices has led to a significant increase in starch prices, and enterprises are making good profits. It is expected that the starch spot price will remain strong next week, and the 05 corn starch contract will fluctuate at a high level following corn [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Try to buy US corn 05 below 440 cents per bushel. Go long on the 05 corn contract on dips [5]. - Arbitrage: Expand the price difference between the 05 corn and starch contracts on dips [5]. - Options: Adopt a cumulative purchase strategy for the 05 corn contract after a callback [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International - **Crude oil drives up US corn prices**: The 3 - month US corn report shows stable yield per unit area and planting area, with a yield per unit area of 186.5 bushels per acre. This week, crude oil has continued to rise, and the 05 contract has reached a high of 460 cents per bushel. China has lowered tariffs on US agricultural products. The import cost of US Western corn in May is around 2,230 yuan per ton, and the import profit is good. As of March 12, the import profit of Brazilian corn arriving in July at Guangdong Port is 201 yuan per ton [9]. - **Increase in non - commercial net long positions in US corn and decrease in ethanol production**: As of March 5, the non - commercial net long position of US corn is 90,000 lots, showing an increase. US ethanol production has decreased. The 05 contract of US corn has risen to a phased high of 460 cents per bushel [16]. 3.2.2 Domestic - **Decrease in deep - processing and feed enterprise inventories and increase in deep - processing consumption**: As of March 11, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills is 30.06 days, a decrease of 1.09 days compared to the previous week and a 6.73% decrease compared to the same period last year. From March 5 to March 11, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.269 million tons of corn, an increase of 49,100 tons compared to the previous week. As of March 11, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises is 3.377 million tons, a 1.75% decrease from the previous week and a 31.69% decrease compared to the same period last year. It is expected that the inventory will increase next week [20][21]. - **Increase in northern port corn inventory and decrease in southern port grain inventory**: As of March 6, the corn inventory at the four northern ports is 1.951 million tons, an increase of 224,000 tons compared to the previous week and a decrease of 3.107 million tons compared to the same period last year. The shipping volume at the four ports this week is 341,000 tons, an increase of 109,000 tons compared to the previous week. The domestic trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port is 524,000 tons, a decrease of 219,000 tons compared to the previous week; the foreign trade inventory is 172,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared to the previous week; the imported sorghum is 302,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons compared to the previous week; the imported barley is 740,000 tons, an increase of 101,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total grain inventory is 1.738 million tons, a decrease of 93,000 tons compared to the previous week [24]. - **Slower grain - selling progress**: As of March 12, the overall grain - selling progress of 13 provinces is 74%, a 4% increase compared to the previous week and a 6% decrease compared to the same period last year; the overall grain - selling progress of 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) is 73%, a 5% increase compared to the previous week and a 6% decrease compared to the same period last year [28]. - **Starch**: The operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has increased. From March 5 to March 12, the national corn processing volume is 598,400 tons, and the starch production is 304,900 tons, an increase of 6,600 tons compared to the previous week. The operating rate is 55.73%, an increase of 1.21% compared to the previous week. The increase in corn and by - product prices has improved enterprise profits. The profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang is 12 yuan, an increase of 55 yuan compared to the previous week, and the profit in Shandong is 22 yuan, an increase of 56 yuan compared to the previous week. The downstream提货 is stable, and the increase in the operating rate has led to a decrease in starch inventory. As of March 11, the corn starch inventory is 1.209 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to the previous week, a 0.82% decrease, a 0.9% increase compared to the previous month, and an 11.2% decrease compared to the same period last year [32]. - **Substitute products**: The wheat price is strong, with the arrival price in North China basically at 2,570 yuan per ton. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed, and the prices of North China and Northeast corn have risen, with the price difference between North China and Northeast corn expanding [39]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry**: From March 6 to March 12, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs is - 233 yuan per head, a decrease of 57 yuan per head compared to the previous week; the profit of purchasing piglets is - 144 yuan per head, a decrease of 56 yuan per head compared to the previous week. From March 5 to March 12, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers is 0.92 yuan per bird, compared to 1.04 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost is 3.62 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit is - 0.59 yuan per catty, compared to - 0.57 yuan per catty last week [43][49]. - **Deep - processing**: The operating rate of starch sugar has increased. This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup is 42.55%, an increase of 10.33% compared to the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup is 37.73%, an increase of 8.77% compared to the previous week. The operating rate of paper mills has increased. This week, the operating rate of corrugated paper is 67.65%, an increase of 7.28% compared to the previous week, and the operating rate of boxboard paper is 69.78%, an increase of 6.74% compared to the previous week [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the coking coal futures market has large fluctuations, mainly following the changes in oil, gas, and chemicals, with capital and sentiment trading as the main factors, and the weight of its own fundamentals decreasing. The price of coking coal is expected to follow the trend of oil and gas and remain strong with large fluctuations before the conflict eases or ends. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and in the medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate widely without a clear trend. It is recommended to buy on dips and conduct band trading [5]. - The price of coking coal spot has stabilized and rebounded, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm has recovered. The coal mine production capacity utilization rate continues to rise, and the import of Mongolian coal is at a high level, which will restrict the upward space of coking coal prices. The supply and demand of coke are relatively balanced, and the price is expected to remain stable in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with the possibility of a price increase in the future [5][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Coking Coal Market Analysis**: The coking coal futures market is mainly affected by capital and sentiment, and its own fundamentals are secondary. The price is expected to follow the trend of oil and gas. The spot market sentiment has improved, and some coal prices have increased. The supply of coking coal in China is mainly domestic, and the impact of geopolitical conflicts on supply is limited [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, coking coal is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips from the perspective of valuation and risk - return ratio. In the medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to conduct band trading. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Coal Substitution for Oil and Gas**: As the prices of international oil, gas, and downstream chemical products rise, the price of international coal also increases. There are two main substitution paths: chemical substitution (mainly replacing crude oil and supplemented by natural gas) and energy substitution (mainly replacing natural gas and supplemented by crude oil). The chemical substitution effect is stronger than the energy substitution effect in the domestic market [7]. - **Other Influencing Factors**: The spill - over of sentiment and capital leads to an overall increase in the valuation of the energy sector, which reacts faster than the fundamental transmission. The increase in oil prices and insurance premiums raises the international trade transportation cost and the cost of imported coal [12][13]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal has rebounded, the production capacity utilization rate of coal mines continues to rise, the import of Mongolian coal is at a high level, the demand for coke is relatively stable, and the inventory has increased [16]. - **Coke**: The price of coke has remained stable, the production is relatively stable, the demand is expected to recover in the next 1 - 2 weeks, the inventory has decreased, and the profit shows a certain differentiation [17]. - **Production and Operation of Coal Mines**: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines has increased, the daily output of raw coal and clean coal has increased, and the inventory has decreased [20]. - **Import of Mongolian Coal**: The customs clearance of Mongolian coal at ports is at a high - level shock, and the inventory pressure is relatively large [22]. - **Iron Water Production**: Affected by environmental protection and other factors, the iron water production has declined, and it is expected to recover next week [31]. - **Price and Basis Data**: The report provides price trends and basis data of coking coal, imported coking coal, coke, etc., as well as the spread data between different contracts [36][46][49]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Recent iron ore prices have rebounded rapidly from the bottom due to geopolitical conflicts, supply disturbances in the iron ore itself, and seasonal factors. However, the current iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. With the rapid increase in iron ore prices, the valuation of the futures market is high, and the risk of further chasing the rise is large. It is recommended that spot enterprises focus on high - level hedging [4]. Group 3: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Logic Analysis**: The rapid rebound of iron ore prices is due to geopolitical conflicts, supply disturbances in the iron ore itself, and seasonal factors. The global iron ore shipment is still at a high level, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the fundamentals may continue to weaken. The port inventory of imported iron ore is at a high level in the past few years, but the actual liquid port inventory may be at a neutral level [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, spot high - level hedging is recommended; for arbitrage, enter the market for high - level reverse arbitrage of the May/September spread; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [4]. Group 4: Core Logic Analysis of Iron Ore Global Iron Ore Shipment - From 2026 to date, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 30.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6% (27 million tons). Among them, the weekly shipment from Australia is 17.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% (12 million tons), and the weekly shipment from Brazil is 6.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% (4 million tons). The shipments of major overseas mines are at a high level year - on - year, and the shipments in the first half of the year are expected to continue to have a high increase [7]. Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment - From 2026 to date, the weekly average of non - Australia and Brazil iron ore shipments is 6.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28% (14 million tons). The weekly average of non - mainstream iron ore shipments from Australia is 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% (1.4 million tons), and the weekly average of non - mainstream iron ore shipments from Brazil is 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5% (1.2 million tons) [9]. Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - The port inventory of imported iron ore has increased slightly week - on - week, the port congestion has decreased slightly, the steel mill inventory has decreased slightly, and the total inventory of imported iron ore in China has decreased slightly week - on - week. The current port inventory of imported iron ore is at the highest level in the past six years, and the supply - demand pattern of domestic iron ore remains loose [11]. Domestic Terminal Manufacturing Steel Demand - In December 2025, the year - on - year decline in real estate new construction was 19%, and the year - on - year decline in sales area was 17%; the year - on - year decline in infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was 12%, and the year - on - year decline in manufacturing investment growth was 11%. From 2026 to date, the domestic hot metal output has increased by 0.5% (8 million tons) year - on - year, the crude steel output has decreased by 0.8% (17 million tons) year - on - year, the building materials apparent demand has decreased by 3% (19 million tons) year - on - year, the non - building materials apparent demand has remained basically the same year - on - year, and the domestic crude steel consumption has decreased by 1.2% (19 million tons) year - on - year [13]. Overseas Demand - In 2025, the overseas iron ore consumption decreased by 1% (90 million tons) year - on - year, but the overseas iron element consumption increased by 3.5% (370 million tons) year - on - year, continuously contributing to the increase. Among them, the crude steel output in India overseas increased by 10% (15.5 million tons) year - on - year in 2025, and the crude steel demand in India overseas remained at a relatively high level [13]. Group 5: Iron Ore Fundamental Data Tracking Imported Iron Ore Port Price - The report provides data on the Platts iron ore price index, the price of PB fines at Qingdao Port, the price of Carajas fines at Qingdao Port, and the spread between high, medium, and low - grade fines [20]. Imported Iron Ore Port Profit - The report shows the import profits of PB fines, Carajas fines, Super Special fines, Jinbuba fines, PB lumps, and FMG [22]. East China Mainstream Steel Mill Profit - The report presents the cash profit of East China rebar, the cash profit of East China hot - rolled coil, the cost of East China hot metal (excluding tax), the cash cost of East China hot - rolled coil, the cost of East China billet (excluding tax), and the cash cost of East China rebar [24]. Domestic and Overseas US Dollar Spread - The report includes data on the spread between SGX and DCE contracts, the premium rate of Singapore iron ore over domestic iron ore, and the difference between East China hot metal and recycled steel (excluding tax) [26]. Iron Ore Main Contract Basis and Inter - period Spread - The report provides data on the basis of the optimal delivery product and different contracts, and the inter - period spreads such as 9/1, 1/5, and 5/9 [28]. Global Four Major Mines Shipment - The report shows the global shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP, FMG, and CSN, as well as the arrival volume at 45 ports [30]. Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - The report presents the port inventory of different types of iron ore, including powder, lumps, pellets, non - trade, iron concentrate, and non - Australia and Brazil iron ore [32].

正反馈持续，驱动仍然偏强 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 硅铁方面，供应端样本企业开工率与产量小幅回升，尽管目前产量绝对值仍然不高，但随着近期价格大幅拉涨带动利润修复，未来 供应端存在上升预期。需求方面，铁水产量因两会区间河北地区环保限产短期回落，但钢材产量和表需仍在稳步恢复之中，预计对 原料需求仍有带动。成本端方面，各地电价也稳中有涨，成本端仍有支撑。目前市场仍处于成本端与需求端的正反馈中，驱动依然 偏强，但估值水平已有明显抬升，且原油剧烈波动对市场情绪扰动较大，多单需注意控制仓位。 锰硅方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price will maintain a volatile trend in the short - term due to the influence of overseas factors and raw materials. The follow - up situation of hot metal production, downstream demand performance, and overseas geopolitical frictions needs to be monitored. The trading strategy suggests a volatile trend for single - side trading, recommends shorting the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high levels, continuing to hold the short position on the ratio of hot - rolled coil to coking coal, and advises to wait and see for options trading [7][9] 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - Supply: This week, the small - sample output of rebar increased by 21.99 tons to 195.30 tons, while that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 5.85 tons to 295.26 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.39 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 43.2%, an increase of 12.5%. The electric arc furnace is in a state of loss, but it is expected to continue to increase production next week. Long - process steel is still in a state of overall loss, and steel mills have insufficient enthusiasm for increasing production, but it is expected to gradually resume production next week [4] - Demand: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 176.81 tons, an increase of 78.58 tons, and that for hot - rolled coil was 295.36 tons, an increase of 13.79 tons. Downstream demand continued to recover this week, but it was still lower than the same period last year. The restocking demand of the manufacturing industry declined, and overseas entered the off - season. The capital availability of downstream construction sites was still weak. The real estate market was still in a downward trend, and the manufacturing PMI continued to decline. The domestic demand for automobiles decreased while the overseas demand increased significantly. The production schedule of major household appliances decreased year - on - year, but the decline narrowed [4] - Inventory: The total inventory of rebar increased by 18.49 tons, with the factory inventory increasing by 1.69 tons and the social inventory increasing by 16.80 tons. The total inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.10 tons, with the factory inventory decreasing by 0.80 tons and the social inventory increasing by 0.70 tons. The total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 22.89 tons [4] - Outlook: The steel price will maintain a volatile trend in the short - term due to the influence of overseas and raw materials. If the overseas geopolitical friction intensifies, it may drive up the cost of steel raw materials. The follow - up needs to focus on the hot metal production, downstream demand, and overseas geopolitical friction [7] - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading will maintain a volatile trend with no obvious trend. It is recommended to short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high levels, continue to hold the short position on the ratio of hot - rolled coil to coking coal, and wait and see for options trading [9] Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - Spot Prices: The rebar summary price in Shanghai was 3250 yuan, an increase of 60 yuan, and that in Beijing was 3150 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan. The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan, and that of Tianjin Hegang was 3220 yuan, an increase of 80 yuan [13] - Basis and Spread: The report presents the basis and spread trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including the 05 - 10 spread and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [15][17][20] - Arbitrage and Profit: The report shows the arbitrage situation and profit trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including the disk profit, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of rebar to coking coal. The long - process and short - process steel mill profits are also presented, with the short - process steel mill in a state of loss [22][25][30][31] Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - Consumer Price Index (CPI): In February 2026, the national CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year and 1.0% month - on - month. The average CPI from January to February increased by 0.8% compared with the same period last year [33] - Producer Price Index (PPI): In February 2026, the national PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points, and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. The average PPI from January to February decreased by 1.2% compared with the same period last year [33] - Steel Exports and Imports: In February 2026, China exported 783.7 tons of steel. From January to February, the cumulative steel exports were 1559.1 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%, and the cumulative steel imports were 82.7 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7% [33] - Export of Home Appliances: In February 2026, China exported 35898.5 units of home appliances. From January to February, the cumulative export was 80285.2 units, a year - on - year increase of 16.4% [33] - Social Financing: In January, the new social financing was 72208 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.36%. The new RMB loans were 47100 billion yuan. The loans to residents were 4565 billion yuan, and the loans to enterprises were 44500 billion yuan. The growth of social financing was generally stable, but the medium - and long - term loans of enterprises and residents dragged down the new social financing [42] - Fixed - Asset Investment: From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was - 3.80%, a further decline. The cumulative investment in real estate development decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, the cumulative investment in manufacturing increased by 0.6%, and the cumulative investment in infrastructure construction decreased by 1.48% year - on - year [42] - Real Estate: The real estate market was still in a downward trend, with the decline in sales, land acquisition, completion, and new construction narrowing, but still maintaining a negative growth of about 20 - 30%. In February, the commercial housing sales in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 26% month - on - month [4] Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - Supply: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.39 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 43.2%, an increase of 12.5%. The small - sample output of rebar was 195.30 tons, an increase of 21.99 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil was 295.26 tons, a decrease of 5.85 tons [4][60][65] - Demand: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 176.81 tons, an increase of 78.58 tons, and that for hot - rolled coil was 295.36 tons, an increase of 13.79 tons. The downstream demand continued to recover, but it was still lower than the same period last year. The restocking demand of the manufacturing industry declined, and overseas entered the off - season. The capital availability of downstream construction sites was still weak [4][68] - Inventory: The total inventory of rebar increased by 18.49 tons, with the factory inventory increasing by 1.69 tons and the social inventory increasing by 16.80 tons. The total inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.10 tons, with the factory inventory decreasing by 0.80 tons and the social inventory increasing by 0.70 tons. The total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 22.89 tons [4] - Export: From January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 1559.1 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%. In February, the steel exports were 783.7 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.33%. Affected by the export license and other factors, the steel exports may decline in the future [79] - Cold - Hot Spread: The cold - hot spread of steel maintained a volatile and weak trend, with the cold - rolled steel production decreasing, inventory declining, and apparent demand recovering, but the overall inventory pressure of cold - and hot - rolled steel was still high [82]

Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping and carbon emissions, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand dynamics, and policy changes to offer trading strategies for each market. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Thursday, the stock index was in a low - level oscillation. The main contracts of stock index futures all declined, with increased trading volume and positions. The market was affected by factors such as the US 301 investigation and the adjustment of technology stocks. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct IM/IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and adopt a bull spread option strategy [20][21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The market sentiment was initially cautious but turned positive due to the news of potential cuts in inter - bank deposit rates. It is recommended to close short positions on dips and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices declined. The supply of soybeans still has an impact, and the futures market is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, narrow the MRM09 spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [26][27]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices rose, and domestic sugar prices showed a strong trend. The production increase in India and Thailand may be lower than expected, and the global sugar supply surplus is expected to decrease. It is recommended that international sugar prices and Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell put options [28][31][33]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The prices of CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil fluctuated. The expectation of biodiesel is positive, and the oils may oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to expect high - level oscillations in the short - term, consider p59 and y59 reverse arbitrage opportunities, and stay on the sidelines for options [35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The CBOT corn futures rose. The spot prices in the production areas are strong, and the futures market is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to go long on dips for the outer - market 05 corn, adopt a high - level oscillation strategy for the 05 corn, widen the 05 corn - starch spread on dips, and stay on the sidelines for options [38][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog prices are oscillating. The supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to continue to face pressure. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and adopt a short strangle option strategy [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot prices are stable, and the futures market is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long operations on dips for the 05 peanuts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option [42][43][45]. - **Eggs**: The egg prices are stable. The enthusiasm for culling laying hens has decreased, and the overall capacity reduction has slowed down. It is recommended to short the June contracts on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [46][47][48]. - **Apples**: The apple inventory has decreased, and the prices are relatively firm. The 5 - month contract of apple futures is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to exit and stay on the sidelines, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [50][51]. - **Cotton**: The outer - market cotton futures oscillated. The cotton price has strong support at the bottom and is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to build long positions on dips for Zhengzhou cotton, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [53][56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The black sector oscillated strongly at night. The steel price is supported by raw materials and is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating and strong trend, short the coil - coal ratio on rallies, hold the short coil - rebar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [60][61]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking market fluctuates greatly, mainly following the changes in oil and gas and chemicals. It is recommended that cautious investors stay on the sidelines and consider going long on dips. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [63][64]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rose rapidly from the bottom. The supply disturbance is increasing, and the spot market is recommended for high - level hedging. It is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for the spot, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [66][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: The short - term driving force of ferroalloys is strong, but the profit - loss ratio has decreased. It is recommended to expect high - level oscillations, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [68][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver oscillated due to the repeated geopolitical situation. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating range strategy, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and exit the bull call spread strategy on rallies [71][72][73]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The platinum and palladium markets are in an oscillating situation due to the continuous game of the Middle East issue. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for platinum and palladium, wait for low - long opportunities for platinum, look for opportunities to go long on the platinum - palladium spread at low levels, and stay on the sidelines for options [75][76]. - **Copper**: The copper price is affected by geopolitical risks and continues to oscillate. It is recommended to buy on dips after the short - term oscillation stabilizes, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [79][80][81]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price oscillates. It is recommended to expect short - term oscillations [82][85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The aluminum production in the Middle East has suspended production cuts, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [87][90]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy price oscillates with the aluminum price. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [91][92]. - **Zinc**: Be vigilant about the impact of capital on the zinc price. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [93][94]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to buy on dips. The supply and demand of lead have increased in March, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to buy low and sell high, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [96][97]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is strong due to the blocked passage of the strait. It is recommended to adopt a low - long strategy [98][99]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is recommended to adopt a low - long strategy, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [101][103][104]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price oscillates in a range. It is recommended to conduct range operations, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [105]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals of polysilicon have not improved significantly, and the price oscillates weakly. It is recommended to be bearish, pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities, and stay on the sidelines for options [107][108]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand contradiction of lithium carbonate is not prominent, and the price oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to adopt a low - long strategy, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [109][111]. - **Tin**: The tin price oscillates downwards due to high risk - aversion sentiment. It is recommended to expect the price to oscillate downwards and stay on the sidelines for options [112][113]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The Middle East geopolitical situation is repeated, and ship attacks continue. The spot freight rate is affected by fuel prices and insurance costs. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the near - month 04 contract and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [115][116][117]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The negotiation on iron ore pricing rights between China and Australia is at a deadlock, and the future rental height of the Capesize ship type may be limited. The market trends of different ship types are differentiated. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the war duration on the dry bulk shipping chain [118][119][120]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The domestic carbon market trading is dull, and the EU has differences in the EU ETS reform. The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate. It is necessary to pay attention to the EU's policy on carbon market reform, geopolitical situation evolution, and energy supply recovery progress [120][121][124]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The risk spill - over range of crude oil has expanded, and the Brent oil price is above $100 per barrel. It is recommended to be bullish at a high level, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [125]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt supply is limited and the price is rising, while downstream users are on the sidelines. The cost is supported by the rising crude oil price, and the supply is expected to tighten. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [129][130]. - **Fuel Oil**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The low - sulfur supply is expected to shrink, and the demand in Singapore may increase. It is recommended to expect a strong oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [132][133]. - **LPG**: The LPG price follows the oil price. It is recommended to expect high - level oscillations, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [134]. - **Natural Gas**: Qatar's production suspension continues, and the supply shortage is accumulating. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for trading, arbitrage, and options [137][138][140]. - **PX & PTA**: The supply of PX and PTA is expected to shrink unexpectedly. It is recommended to expect an upward trend driven by supply tension, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [141][142][143]. - **BZ & EB**: The domestic operating loads of pure benzene and styrene have decreased. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of Middle - East logistics on supply. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply impact and prevent the price from falling back, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [146][147][148]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene cracking enterprises have reduced their loads. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand structure is expected to improve. It is recommended to expect a strong oscillation, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [149][150]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price follows the cost and is strong. It is recommended to follow the cost and be bullish, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [151][152]. - **Bottle Chips**: The de - stocking amplitude in the first quarter is limited. The bottle - chip price follows the cost and is strong. It is recommended to follow the cost and be bullish, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [153][154]. - **Propylene**: The supply and demand of propylene are supported. The operating load has decreased, and the cost of downstream products is under pressure. It is recommended to expect an upward trend, pay attention to the Middle - East situation, prevent the price from falling back, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [156][157][159]. - **Plastic PP**: It is recommended to hold long positions for L and PP. Set stop - loss levels at recent high points. Consider arbitrage opportunities for SPC L2605&PP2605 and set stop - loss levels at recent high points. Stay on the sidelines for options [160][161]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price is strengthening. It is recommended to expect a strengthening trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [163][164]. - **PVC**: The PVC price oscillates widely. The supply at home and abroad is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips and not chase the rise, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [165][166]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price oscillates weakly. The supply has increased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to expect wide - range oscillations and a weak direction, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell call options [167][168][169]. - **Glass**: The glass price has large fluctuations, wide - range oscillations, and a weak direction. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to expect wide - range oscillations and a weak direction, close the short - glass long - soda - ash arbitrage position, and stay on the sidelines for options [170][171][173]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price oscillates at a high level due to news disturbances. The supply in Iran may decrease, and the domestic market is worried about supply shortages. It is recommended to go long on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell put options on pullbacks [174][175]. - **Urea**: The urea price oscillates widely following the energy - chemical market. The supply is at a historical high, and the demand is gradually increasing. It is recommended to operate cautiously, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [177][178]. - **Pulp**: The pulp inventory is high, and the market rebound is weak. The supply exceeds demand, and the demand recovery is slow. It is recommended to conduct wide - range oscillations, lay out long positions in small amounts near integer points, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the SP2605 - P - 5200 option [179][180]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The high inventory suppresses the paper price. The supply and demand of offset printing paper are in a weak balance, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the OP2604 - C - 4250 option [182][184][185]. - **Logs**: The import cost of logs is rising, and it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of construction sites. The price is supported by cost and demand. It is recommended to go long on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [186][187][188]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The full - steel tire production line has reached a new high in operation. The domestic tire production line operation rate is increasing. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the RU 05 contract, pay attention to the pressure at the previous high point, conduct small - amount long operations for the NR 05 contract and set stop - loss levels at recent low points, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the RU2605 put 15750 contract and set stop - loss levels at recent high points [189][190][191]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The profit of butadiene rubber has improved. The profit of BD has increased, and the tire production line operation rate is increasing. It is recommended to chase long positions for the BR 05 contract and set stop - loss levels at recent low points, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [193][194][195].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global cotton production in the 26/27 season is likely to decrease. The improvement in Sino - US relations and the global monetary easing cycle will boost demand. Given the low absolute price of US cotton, it is expected to rise in 2026. [5] - The domestic cotton market has fundamental support. With the reduction in cotton planting area in the new season and good downstream consumption, the cotton price is likely to remain strong. [5] - The internal - external price difference of cotton is expected to remain at the current level and may return slightly, but the amplitude is limited. [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Background Introduction - From November, the domestic cotton 05 contract price rose from around 13,500 yuan/ton to around 15,100 yuan/ton (a 12% increase), and US cotton rose from 63 cents/pound to a maximum of 65.7 cents/pound (a 4.3% increase). The internal - external price difference expanded from 1,600 yuan/ton to around 2,900 yuan/ton, at a slightly higher level in history. [4] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The global cotton production in the 26/27 season is likely to decrease. The improvement in Sino - US relations is beneficial for US cotton signing, and the global monetary easing cycle will boost consumption. US cotton is expected to rise in 2026. [5] - The domestic cotton market has fundamental support. The reduction in cotton planting area in the new season and good downstream consumption will keep the cotton price strong. [5] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - The internal - external price difference of cotton is expected to remain at the current level and may return slightly, but the amplitude is limited. [5] 3.2 Second Part: Market Analysis 3.2.1 Internal - External Price Difference Correlation Analysis - The long - term correlation between domestic and US cotton is strong, but the short - term correlation has weakened. The internal - external price difference is at a slightly higher level in the same period of history. [9] - The long - term correlation coefficient between US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton since 2008 is 0.874, but in recent years, especially recently, the correlation has decreased. In 2025, the correlation dropped to - 0.165. The reasons are the significant decrease in imported cotton volume due to Sino - US trade issues and different fundamental drivers of the two markets. [12] - The historical patterns of internal - external price differences: Policy support is the root of "strong domestic prices", international supply - demand surplus is the basis of "weak external prices", and a large price difference stimulates imports, which in turn exerts pressure on price difference correction. The differences are that the 2011 - 2013 price difference was caused by administrative market support, the 2022 price difference was due to the collapse of domestic demand, and the 2026 price difference is driven by expectations. [11] 3.2.2 Analysis of the Reasons for the Rise in Domestic Cotton Prices - Since November when new cotton was listed, cotton sales have been better than in previous years. As of January 8, 2025, the cumulative sales of lint cotton were 409.3 million tons, an increase of 195.7 million tons year - on - year and 231.8 million tons more than the four - year average. [19] - There is an expectation of a reduction in cotton planting area in the new season. According to the Xinjiang Cotton Association, the target planting area in Xinjiang may be reduced to 36 million mu in 2026, a decrease of 2.66 million mu (7%) compared to 2025. [23] - On the supply side, although there was an increase in production this year, the sales are good. If the inventory reduction is fast after the Spring Festival, it may have a positive impact on the price. On the demand side, the expansion of textile production capacity in Xinjiang and the expected monetary easing will boost cotton demand. [27] 3.2.3 Analysis of the Reasons for the Fluctuation of US Cotton Prices - As of January 22, the cumulative signing volume of US cotton was 1.7131 million tons, 10 percentage points lower year - on - year, and the signing progress was 66%, 22 percentage points behind the five - year average. The main reason is the low signing volume from China. However, recently, China has started to sign US cotton, which is expected to improve the situation. [28] - In the new season, the US cotton planting area may be reduced. According to a survey, the intended planting area in 2026 is 9.005 million acres, slightly lower than 9.277 million acres in 2025. Considering the current cotton - grain price ratio, the planting area in the 26/27 season is expected to decrease. [31] - The IMF has raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026. It is expected that the consumption in 2026 will be better than in 2025, which is beneficial for US cotton demand. [35] 3.2.4 Summary - The domestic cotton market has fundamental support. On the supply side, although there was an increase in production this year, the sales are fast, and there is an expectation of a reduction in planting area in the new season. On the demand side, the expansion of textile production capacity in Xinjiang and the expected monetary easing will boost demand. [37] - US cotton is likely to fluctuate in the short term, but it is expected to rise in the future as the global cotton production is likely to decrease and demand is likely to improve. [38] - The internal - external price difference is expected to remain at a slightly higher - than - average level. In the short term, it may remain high or widen further, and in the long term, it may return as China's purchases of US cotton increase. [39] - The issuance of sliding - scale tariff quotas is expected to remain low. If there is a significant reduction in Xinjiang cotton production in the new season, the import of cotton may increase in the second half of the year, but the short - term impact is limited. [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the prices of coking coal and coke on the futures market have fluctuated significantly, mainly following the changes in oil, gas, and chemical products. The trading is mainly driven by funds and sentiment, and the weight of their own fundamentals has decreased. The current supply of domestic coking coal is not tight. China's coking coal supply is mainly domestic and supplemented by imports. The main source countries for imports are Mongolia and Russia, with stable supplies, and Australia and Canada as supplementary sources. Geopolitical conflicts have limited direct impact on China's coking coal supply, and the impact is indirect. Before the conflict eases or ends, coking coal prices may fluctuate significantly following oil and gas prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Prices**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the JM01 coking coal futures price increased by 4.5 from 1461.5 to 1466, and the J01 coke futures price increased by 8.5 from 1887.5 to 1896 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke remained stable, with no price changes for most varieties on that day [4]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of coking coal and coke also remained unchanged [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of coking coal and coke varied among different contracts and varieties [4]. - **Transportation Prices**: Most of the transportation prices of coking coal and coke remained stable, except that the transportation price from Xiaoyi to Guye District increased by 20 from 150 to 170 [4]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: Recently, the price fluctuations are large. Conservative investors are advised to wait and see. Considering the risk - return ratio, they can also try to go long at low prices. In the medium term, it is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and there is no trend - based opportunity yet. It is recommended to conduct band trading [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7]. - **Options**: Wait and see [8]. - **Related Prices**: The report lists the warehouse receipt prices of various types of coking coal and coke, such as the warehouse receipt price of Shanxi coking coal is 1180 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade (wet - quenched) coke is 1581 yuan/ton [9]. - **Important Information** - The price of动力煤in Shaanxi Yulin shows a trend of stable and fluctuating adjustment. The prices of some coal mines have decreased by 10 - 20 yuan, and the current market price of high - calorie pulverized coal in Shenmu area is 600 - 625 yuan/ton. - A large steel mill in Tangshan tendered for Meng 5 clean coal on the 12th, with a winning bid price of 1380 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous tender on March 2nd, and all 7000 tons of the tendered quantity were sold [10]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the comprehensive absolute price index of coke, the price of Meng 5 clean coal, the basis of coking coal and coke, etc., showing the price trends from 2021 to 2026 [12][14][22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to remain in a relatively strong upward trend in the short - term, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are also expected to be in a slightly strong upward trend in the short - term [9][10] - For the domestic sugar market, the prices are likely to be influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, with a general trend of bottom - end oscillation. In the short - term, the prices are expected to oscillate slightly upwards [9] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a long position in the single - side trade, adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and sell put options [10][11][12] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,447, down 1 (-0.02%); SR01 closed at 5,568, down 1 (-0.02%); SR05 closed at 5,416, down 7 (-0.13%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also had corresponding changes [3] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of sugar in different regions had different changes. For example, the price in Liuzhou increased by 30 to 5480 yuan/ton, while the prices in Kunming, Wuhan, etc. remained unchanged [3] - **Basis**: The basis in different regions varied, such as 64 in Liuzhou, - 96 in Kunming [3] - **Inter - month Spread**: SR05 - SR01 spread was - 152, down 6; SR09 - SR05 spread was 31, up 6; SR09 - SR01 spread was - 121, unchanged [3] - **Import Profit**: The import profit from Brazil and Thailand was calculated, with the quota - free price and out - of - quota price and their spreads with domestic prices provided [3] Market Judgment - **Important Information**: As of the current incomplete statistics, 8 sugar mills in Zhanjiang have completed the crushing process in the 25/26 sugar - making season, and 9 are yet to finish, with the progress slower than the same period last year. As of the end of February in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar production in Guangdong was 49.67 million tons, lower than 52.98 million tons in the same period last year, and the sugar yield rate was 10.14%, slightly lower than 10.30% in the same period last year [5] - **Important Information**: The spot quotes of sugar in the main producing areas were basically stable, and the overall trading volume was average [6] - **Important Information**: The well - known consulting firm StoneX recently adjusted the estimated global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 sugar - making season from 2.9 million tons to about 0.87 million tons, a decrease of 70%. The main reduction in the global surplus expectation came from India. For the 2026/27 sugar - making season in the central - southern region of Brazil, StoneX expected the sugarcane crushing volume to reach 620.5 million tons, but due to the decreased attractiveness of sugar compared to ethanol, the sugar - making ratio dropped from the previously estimated 49.3% to 48.7%, and the sugar production in this region was expected to drop to about 40 million tons, about 0.7 million tons less than the previous forecast [8] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the sugar production increase in India and Thailand in this sugar - making season is likely to be lower than market expectations, especially India has repeatedly lowered its sugar production forecast. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has also lowered its global sugar production and surplus forecasts. Most global institutions are lowering their 2026/27 global sugar production expectations, which strongly supports international sugar prices. Domestically, the domestic sugar is in the peak crushing period, and the sugar production in this sugar - making season is likely to increase significantly, putting pressure on the supply side. However, considering the relatively low sugar prices and the possible tightening of import policies in the future, the sugar prices are expected to be influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, with a general trend of bottom - end oscillation. In the short - term, due to the high price of crude oil and the sharp rise in international sugar prices, the domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate slightly upwards [9] Related Attached Figures - The report provides multiple figures, including the monthly inventory and production of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan, the spot price of Liuzhou sugar, the spot price difference between Liuzhou and Kunming, the basis of different contract months, and the price difference between different contracts [14][19][21]