Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For polysilicon, long - term price is likely to rise, but short - term may see a pullback after a surge. The recommended strategies are to take profit on long positions at the right time, conduct reverse arbitrage on 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy straddles to bet on volatility [4][5]. - For industrial silicon, it remains in a tight - balance state, with more upside potential in price. The recommended strategies are to buy on dips, sell out - of - the - money put options opportunistically, and participate in reverse arbitrage on 11 and 12 contracts [6][7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - **Supply and demand**: In September, silicon wafer production is expected to increase by 6GW to 58GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 11.6 tons. The polysilicon production is expected to remain around 13 tons. The total inventory in the polysilicon industry is close to 40 tons, and the downstream inventory is about 18 - 20 tons [4]. - **Price trend**: Long - term price is likely to rise, but short - term may pull back after a surge as the futures price has a premium of over 10% to the spot price and the spot price is hard to rise further [4]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: Take profit on long positions at the right time; Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage on 2511 and 2512 contracts; Options: Buy straddles [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply and demand**: This week, the weekly production of DMC increased by 1.04% to 4.86 tons, polysilicon production increased by 5.15% to 3.14 tons. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained flat at 56.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1.7 percentage points to 55.3%. The weekly production of industrial silicon was 9.29 tons, a 3.24% increase. The number of open furnaces decreased by 5. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.6 tons to 53.7 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.27 tons to 17.36 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory increased by 0.4 tons to 22.43 tons [6][25][26]. - **Trading logic**: It remains in a tight - balance state. Manufacturers' inventory is low, and most have strong price - holding intentions. The downstream has a higher acceptance of the price after the profit of polysilicon is repaired. The price has more upside potential. The futures price is mainly affected by market sentiment and related varieties. The silicon industry conference next week may bring some positive news [6]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options opportunistically; Arbitrage: Participate in reverse arbitrage on 11 and 12 contracts opportunistically [7]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market performance**: This week, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 8,820 yuan/ton. Some spot prices of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton [10]. - **Downstream demand**: The weekly production of DMC increased by 1.04% to 4.86 tons, polysilicon production increased by 5.15% to 3.14 tons. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained flat at 56.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1.7 percentage points to 55.3% [13]. - **Production**: The weekly production of industrial silicon was 9.29 tons, a 3.24% increase. The number of open furnaces decreased by 5. The production in September is expected to exceed 39 tons [25]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.6 tons to 53.7 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.27 tons to 17.36 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory increased by 0.4 tons to 22.43 tons [26]. - **Product price**: Some industrial silicon spot prices increased. The prices of DMC and terminal products remained stable this week [31][36]. - **Intermediate data**: The operating rate of the organic silicon intermediate industry increased slightly [42]. - **Aluminum alloy data**: The operating rate of the aluminum alloy industry increased slightly [46]. - **Raw material price**: The prices of refined coal in Ningxia and Xinjiang increased [49]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price trend**: This week, the spot price of polysilicon increased. The prices of silicon wafers, batteries, and some components also increased [53][56][59]. - **Component data**: The acceptance of high - price components by domestic terminal enterprises has decreased, and the domestic orders are average with a moderately high inventory. The component production schedule in September is expected to increase slightly to 45GW [73]. - **Battery data**: The export demand for batteries is good, and the inventory of specialized battery manufacturers is 7.81GW. The battery production schedule in September is expected to increase to 57GW [75]. - **Silicon wafer data**: This week, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises increased, and the weekly production reached 13.78GW. The inventory is 16.85GW. The production in September is expected to be 58GW, a 6GW increase from August [80]. - **Polysilicon data**: This week, the polysilicon production increased slightly, and the factory inventory increased slightly to 23.39 tons. The production in September is expected to be flat compared to August, at around 13 tons [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the oil market is in a bottom - grinding stage, and investors can consider seizing opportunities to buy in batches at low prices [5][10]. - For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of 2601 for soybean oil is 8416 with a decline of 34, palm oil is 9466 with a decline of 60, and rapeseed oil is 9835 with an increase of 17. The basis of each variety in different regions has different changes [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: For the 1 - 5 monthly spread, soybean oil is 292 with a decline of 22, palm oil is 212 with a decline of 20, and rapeseed oil is 315 with an increase of 70 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The 01 - contract Y - P spread is - 1050 with an increase of 26, OI - Y is 1419, OI - P is 369 with an increase of 77, and the oil - meal ratio is 2.73 with a decline of 0.02 [3]. - **Import Profit**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia has a negative profit of 64, and the FOB price of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is 1067 with a negative profit of 776 [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 36th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory is 125.13 million tons, palm oil is 61.93 million tons, and rapeseed oil is 63.5 million tons, with different changes compared to last week and the same period last year [3][5][6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From September 1 - 5, 2025, the single - yield of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 5.70% month - on - month, the oil - extraction rate decreased by 0.11%, and the output decreased by 6.28% [5]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: As of September 5, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory increased by 1.51% week - on - week, the import profit inversion narrowed, and the basis was stable [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The actual soybean crushing volume last week was 230.39 million tons, the inventory increased by 1.01% week - on - week, and the basis was stable [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The coastal rapeseed crushing volume last week was 4.5 million tons, the inventory decreased by 4.37% week - on - week, the European rapeseed oil FOB price increased, the import profit inversion widened, the basis was stable with a slight decline, and the inventory continued to decrease marginally [6][9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Consider buying in batches at low prices during the bottom - grinding stage of the oil market [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [11]. - **Options**: Wait and see [12]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments There are 8 figures showing the basis of different oils in different regions, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2016 - 2025 [15][18].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 9 月 8 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： Z0018389 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/9/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | | 7894 | 28 | 0.35% | 38 | 111.11% | 420 | 0.72% | | PK510 | | 7988 | 16 | 0.20% | 8,818 | 20.25% | 33,377 | -3.74% | | PK601 | | 7890 | 42 | 0.53% | 12,074 | 87.98% | 34,357 | 2.84% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | ...

大宗商品研究所 沥青研发报告 沥青日报 2025 年 9 月 8 日 沥青日报 | 第一部分 | | 相关数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 2025/09/08 | 2025/09/05 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货价格与持仓 | | | | | | BU2511 （主力） | 3440 | 3437 | 3 | 0.09% | | BU2512 | 3393 | 3393 | 0 | 0.00% | | BU2601 | 3366 | 3365 | 1 | 0.03% | | SC2510 | 490.5 | 482.0 | 8.5 | 1.76% | | Brent首行 | 66.71 | 66.82 | -0.1 | -0.16% | | 主力合约持仓/万手 | 24.3 | 24.1 | 0.1 | 0.47% | | 主力合约成交/万手 | 18.9 | 24.8 | -5.9 | -23.61% | | 仓单数量/吨 | 65160 | 65360 | -200 | -0.31% | | 基差月差 | | | | | | BU12 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental situation of the pulp market is weak, with both positive and negative factors coexisting. The international macro - environment presents a mix of surprises and shocks, and the domestic macro - situation shows an "outer - weak, inner - strong" pattern. There are also various trends in supply, demand, and trade in different aspects of the pulp and paper industry [3][4][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Changes - Imported broadleaf pulp: The ex - works price of imported broadleaf pulp is firm, and the average price has increased due to price adjustments in some regions. - Imported natural color pulp: There is significant pressure on the spot market for imported natural color pulp, and the average weekly price has slightly declined. - Imported chemimechanical pulp: The supply - demand situation in the spot market for imported chemimechanical pulp has changed little, and the average spot price remains stable. - Downstream paper industry: The continuous cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement efforts of the downstream paper industry have further pressured the upward momentum of the pulp market [4] 3.2 Macro - Surprises and Shocks Coexist - As of August 2025, the Citigroup Global Economic Surprise Index dropped to +12.42 points, strengthening trendily for four consecutive months, which is positive for SP unilateral [13]. - As of July 2025, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index rose to 377.1 points, with the year - on - year increase of the 12 - month average at +46.3%, and the growth rate has narrowed [13] 3.3 Macro Trade - Outer Weak, Inner Strong - As of June 2025, China's total import and export volume increased to $545.3 billion, with the cumulative value of the past six months increasing by +3.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate has expanded, which is positive for SP unilateral [16]. - As of July 2025, Canada's trade surplus decreased to - C$5.86 billion, a year - on - year decrease of - C$5.27 billion, with marginal reduction, which is negative for SP unilateral [21] 3.4 Stock and Bond Markets - As of 2025, the Small and Medium 100 Index rose to 7579 points in four months, a year - on - year increase of +34.2%; the CSI 1000 Index rose to 7266 points in four months, a year - on - year increase of +107.5%; the Galaxy CSI Index closed at 70.9%, a year - on - year increase of +37.5%, with the growth rate expanding for 14 consecutive months, which is positive for SP unilateral. - The ChinaBond New Composite Index declined for two consecutive months, closing at 106.16 points, weakening marginally for four consecutive months, which is positive for SP unilateral [26] 3.5 Broadleaf Supply - Demand: Support for Broadleaf Strength - As of July 2025, the import of broadleaf wood chips increased for three consecutive months, reaching 1341000 tons, equivalent to 671000 tons of wood pulp; the import of broadleaf pulp decreased to 1352000 tons. - The import of coniferous wood chips decreased to 57000 tons, equivalent to 29000 tons of wood pulp; the import of coniferous pulp decreased for four consecutive months, reaching 727000 tons. - The ratio of short - fiber to long - fiber imports was 2.68 times, with the 12 - month average increasing by +2.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate has narrowed for six consecutive months, with marginal reduction, which is positive for the broad - coniferous spread [35] 3.6 Paper - Making Consumption: Discrepancy between Output and Electricity Consumption - As of July 2025, the output of domestic paper - making enterprises' machine - made paper and cardboard decreased to 13.94 million tons, with marginal reduction for four consecutive months, which is negative for SP unilateral. - The electricity consumption of the domestic paper - making industry increased to 944 million kWh for three consecutive months, with marginal increase for three consecutive months, which is positive for SP unilateral. - The average monthly profit - loss difference of the domestic paper - making industry increased to +3.094 billion yuan, with marginal reduction, which is negative for SP unilateral [41][42] 3.7 Coniferous Supply: Increment Negative for Valuation - As of July 2025, the inventory of European softwood pulp increased to 236000 tons; the consumption of European softwood pulp increased to 260000 tons; the inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.907 times, with the 12 - month average increasing by +9.0% year - on - year, and inventory accumulation for eight consecutive months, which is negative for SP unilateral. - The domestic import of coniferous wood chips decreased to 57000 tons, equivalent to 29000 tons of wood pulp; the domestic import of coniferous pulp decreased for four consecutive months, reaching 727000 tons, with a total of 755000 tons of long - fiber pulp, and the cumulative value of the past three months increasing by +15.2% year - on - year, and marginal increment for eight consecutive months, which is negative for SP unilateral [53] 3.8 International Pulp and Paper Trade: Slight Reduction - As of July 2025, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil decreased for three consecutive months, reaching $579 million, a decrease of - 2.6%, with marginal reduction, which is negative for SP unilateral. - In July, the domestic pulp import value decreased to $1.765 billion; in June, the US pulp import value decreased to $303 million; the combined value (with a one - month lag) was $2.068 billion, a year - on - year increase of +5.0%, with the growth rate narrowing for two consecutive months, with marginal reduction, which is negative for SP unilateral [55][60] 3.9 Impact of Port Inventory on SP Unilateral - As of September 5, 2025, the total inventory of the above ports was 2.256 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of - 0.2%, with marginal inventory accumulation, which is negative for SP unilateral [67]

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 9 月 8 日星期一 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：上周五，伦敦金再创新高，最高短暂突破 3600 整数大关，收于 3586 | | 研究员：王伟 | 美元/盎司，最终收涨 1.17%，为连续第三周收涨；伦敦银收涨 0.77%，报 40.967 美元/ | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 盎司。受外盘影响，沪金主力合约收涨 1.01%，报 822.78 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 0.07%，报 9770 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数短线急挫并接近抹去上周全部涨幅，最终收跌 0.59%，报 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 97.768。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率连续第三日大幅下跌，收 ...

单位：点、手、亿元 单位：手 IM每日行情 IM行情概要 IM成交持仓 股指期货数据日报 2025年9月8日 | 单位：点、手、亿元 | | | | | | | | | | 单位：手 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | | 成交额 | +/- | 持仓量 | +/- | 持仓保证金 | | 中证1000 | 7311.03 | 0.90% | 30,781 | 9 | % | 4,955 | 8 % | | | | | IM2509 | 7236.00 | 0.41% | 153,548 | -17% | | 2,217 | -15% | 159,428 | -11,830 | 277 | | IM2510 | 7178.80 | 0.38% | 12,587 | -22% | | 180 | -21% | 25,168 | 623 | 4 3 | | IM2512 | 7042.40 | 0.38% | 64,157 | -18% | | 901 | ...

锌：多空因素交织 沪锌价格反复运行 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 市场数据 第三章 基本面数据 目录 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 交易逻辑与策略 ◼ 产业供需： ➢ 单边：国内供应过剩逻辑不改。但考虑到短期受外盘支撑及国内消费旺季提振预期影响，锌价或有反复； ➢ 套利：暂时观望。 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ➢ 矿端，近期锌价走低，国内矿山利润下滑，矿企对锌精矿加工费上调意愿较低。而进口锌精矿亏损扩大，国内冶炼厂积极采购国产锌精矿，整体对矿端需求旺 盛，国内 ...

【生猪周报】节后情绪好转 期价增仓上行 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 目录 第一章 综合分析&交易策略 2 | | 内容提纲 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | | | 第二章 数据图表&逻辑分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1.综合分析&交易策略 ◼ 综合分析 本周是5月以来的第二周，也是节后的第一周，生猪价格整体呈现反弹上涨态势。本轮猪价的上涨主要因为供应端的 月初收紧以及二次育肥的提前抢跑。一般而言，进入月初，规模企业销售压力不大，因此出栏进度往往有放缓迹象，与此 同时，各地区养殖户也普遍对低价有一定抵触情绪，抗价情绪有所增加；而最主要的是，由于猪价看涨预期有所增强，二 次育肥集中入场导致屠宰企业收购困难，被迫提价，因此进一步强化了市场情绪。近期生猪市场情绪好转的主要原因还是 前期大体重猪源消化较多，同时市场对远期缺口的担忧仍然存在。但需要提示的是，5月期间现货供需矛盾并不明显，尤 其是需求方面仍然相对较差，如果后续二育熄火，叠加规模场开始陆续出栏，价格可能仍有回落可能； 期货方面，估值修复与现货驱动构成本周期货 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of apples is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term due to low high - quality fruit rate of early - maturing apples and potential impact of rainfall on the high - quality fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji [16]. - The new - season Fuji apples may have a high price at the initial listing stage as the new - season apple output is expected to change little from this season, and the early - maturing apples have a low high - quality fruit rate [16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Analysis - The ground trading of early - maturing Gala apples has basically ended this week, with a small amount of cold - storage goods still being shipped out. Early - maturing Fuji apples are waiting to color. Due to continuous rainfall in Shaanxi, the quantity of red apples is difficult to increase, and the trading is sporadic. The impact of early - maturing fruits on Shandong's inventory goods has weakened, and the sales have improved slightly. The prices in Shandong are mainly stable, with the prices of good goods in some townships slightly increasing. The Cream Red General apples in Shandong are on the market. The sales in the distribution markets are a bit slow, and the market prefers high - redness high - quality goods [6]. - The main producing areas' prices: In Shandong Qixia, the prices of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red apples are 3.30 - 4.20 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade striped apples are 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin, general goods are 2.80 - 3.30 yuan/jin, and third - grade apples are 2.00 - 2.50 yuan/jin. For early - maturing varieties, the trading of Gala is basically over, and the Cream Red General is the main trading variety. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, the mainstream price of early - maturing Fuji above 70 is 4.0 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and good goods are 4.7 - 4.8 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi Baishui, the mainstream reference price of general goods starting from 70 is 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and good goods are 4.1 - 4.3 yuan/jin [6]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - As of September 4, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 2.32%, down 0.36 percentage points this period, and 1.666 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a destocking rate of 96.36%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 4.28%, down 0.51 percentage points, and the cold - storage shipment volume is slightly higher than last week. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 1.85%, down 0.31 percentage points, and the cold - storage is gradually clearing inventory [11]. - As of September 3, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main producing areas is 27.35 tons, a decrease of 6.62 tons from last week, and the inventory shipment speed has accelerated slightly [11]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of morning arrival vehicles has increased slightly compared with last week. The market still mainly deals with Fuji apples, and the early - maturing varieties account for a small proportion. The early - maturing apples are selling well, but the profit of merchants is average, and the terminal sales speed is not fast [14]. - On September 4, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits is 6.89 yuan/kg, slightly lower than last Friday, and it is at the median level in recent years [14]. - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants is 0.4 yuan/jin, the same as last week [14]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to build long positions at low prices and conduct rolling operations of buying low and selling high due to the possible low high - quality fruit rate of new - season apples [16]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [15].