Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the good profit performance in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption enters the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg price performance has weakened the overall reduction. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Information - The average price in the main producing areas today is 3.06 yuan/jin, and that in the main selling areas is 3.27 yuan/jin, both remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The national mainstream egg price remains stable, with prices in various regions mostly unchanged [4]. - In February, the national in - lay hen inventory was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, higher than expected. The monthly chick output of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 43.3 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [4]. - From March 5th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main producing areas was 10.94 million, a 24% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - As of the week of March 5th, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7,304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [5]. - As of March 5th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.29 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week. On February 27th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.85 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.27 yuan/jin from the previous week [5]. - As of the week of March 5th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week, while the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [6][7]. - Today, the national culled hen price rose, with the average price in the main producing areas at 5.16 yuan/jin, a 0.02 - yuan increase from the previous trading day [7]. 2. Trading Logic - The good profit performance in the early stage has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the egg consumption off - season after the Spring Festival and the recent good egg price performance weakening the overall reduction, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8]. 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The exchange decided to raise the trading margin and daily price limit for Apple 2604 and 2605 contracts, causing some funds to leave the market and most of the previous gains to reverse. The price of the May contract has fallen to around 9,900 yuan/ton, and there may be limited room for further decline based on previous warehouse receipt costs. However, if funds are strongly inclined to leave, the price may drop further. With the approaching key growing season of new - season apples, the market is expected to focus on the production of new - season apples, which are likely to have an increased yield, and there are more flower buds year - on - year. It is recommended to short the October contract on rallies in the short term [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index was 110.41, down 0.15 from the previous trading day. The prices of various apple varieties in different regions remained stable, such as the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples at 4.20 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.76 yuan, down 0.25 from the previous day [2]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 closed at 8,530, down 30; AP05 closed at 9,984, down 252; AP10 closed at 8,636, down 21. The spreads between different contracts also changed, e.g., AP01 - AP05 increased by 222, AP05 - AP10 decreased by 231, and AP10 - AP01 increased by 9 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against AP01 increased by 50 to - 530; against AP05 increased by 252 to - 1,984; against AP10 increased by 21 to - 636 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Market News**: As of March 12, 2026, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main production areas was 4.9972 million tons, a decrease of 278,100 tons from the previous week and 243,400 tons year - on - year, a decrease of 4.6%. In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The import volume was 3,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The annual cumulative import volume in 2025 was 116,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. The prices of apples in the main production areas were stable, with high procurement enthusiasm from merchants, good demand for high - quality goods, and an increase in market arrivals. The overall sales were okay, and the prices of high - quality goods showed an upward trend [7]. - **Trading Logic**: Due to the exchange's decision to raise margins and price limits, funds left the market, causing price drops. The May contract price has limited downward space based on costs, but could fall further if funds continue to leave. The market will focus on new - season apple production, and it is recommended to short the October contract on rallies [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Focus on the October contract and short on rallies in the short term [6]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volumes in some markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][11][12][14][17][19][21][24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current fundamentals of cotton provide some support. On the demand side, there are expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" as downstream industries resume work, and cotton sales progress is fast, at a high level in the same period over the years. The USDA's annual report has lowered the global cotton production forecast by 3%, with a reduction in US and Chinese production by 9%. The supply - demand situation is expected to be slightly tight, and there may be a tight balance if consumption continues to increase. The US cotton signing situation has also improved. It is expected that cotton will still have some support in the short term, and investors can consider building long positions at low prices but not chasing high prices [6]. - For the cotton market, it is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will be mostly range - bound, and the technical performance of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. For trading strategies, in the single - side trading, investors can consider building long positions at low prices and not chasing high; in arbitrage and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts are 15875, 15545, and 15595 respectively, with price increases of 100, 30, and 65. Their trading volumes are 3,239, 536,896, and 145,167 hands respectively, showing decreases of 2667, 153899, and 49194 hands compared with the previous period. The open interest of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts is 16,007, 741,203, and 237,471 respectively, with changes of 678, - 2473, and 7727. For CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts, the closing prices are 0, 21735, and 21575 respectively. The trading volume of CY01 is 0, while CY05 and CY09 have trading volumes of 16137 and 34 hands respectively, with decreases of 4405 and 9 hands. The open interest of CY01 is 0, and CY05 and CY09 have open interests of 14724 and 63 respectively, with changes of - 248 and 2 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B is 16848 yuan/ton, up 115; Cot A is 75.75 cents/pound; the arrival price of (FC Index):M is 73.98, up 0.70; the price of polyester staple fiber is 7450, up 70; the price of viscose staple fiber is 12900, up 50. The prices of IndexC32S CY, Indian S - 6, and pure polyester yarn T32S remain unchanged, and the price of viscose yarn R30S is also unchanged [2]. - **Price Difference**: In cotton inter - month spreads, the 1 - 5 spread is 330, up 70; the 5 - 9 spread is - 50, down 35; the 9 - 1 spread is - 280, down 35. In yarn inter - month spreads, the 1 - 5 spread is - 21735, down 155; the 5 - 9 spread is 160, up 20; the 9 - 1 spread is 21575, up 135. In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 is (15875), down 100; CY05 - CF05 is 6190, up 125; CY09 - CF09 is 5980, up 70. The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread is 3903, up 315; the sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread is 2906, up 261; the internal - external yarn spread is 5, down 41 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: On March 12, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - outbound cotton was 0.1593 yuan/ton·km, up 1.59% month - on - month. Due to increased transportation demand and relatively insufficient transportation capacity resources, the index rose slightly, and it is expected to show a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term. In January 2026, Vietnam's cotton textile output was 0.88 billion square meters, up 1.51% year - on - year and down 7.259% month - on - month; clothing output was 5.49 billion pieces, up 20.3% year - on - year and down 7.02% month - on - month. The decline in textile and clothing output in January was mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday, with enterprises arranging employees' return home in advance and reducing production line speed. In December 2025/26, India's cotton yarn (HS:5205) export volume was 10.14 tons, up 5.01% year - on - year and 11.64% month - on - month. From August to December 2025, India's cotton yarn export volume was 45.6 tons, with 19.48 tons exported to Bangladesh (down 117.06% year - on - year, accounting for 42.94%) and 7.42 tons exported to China (up 94.76% year - on - year, accounting for 16.35%). In 2025, India's cumulative cotton yarn export volume was 108.19 tons, up 0.18% year - on - year [4][5]. - **Trading Logic**: The current cotton fundamentals are supportive. Demand is expected to improve with the resumption of downstream production, and cotton sales are progressing rapidly. The USDA's report has lowered global cotton production, and the supply - demand situation may become tighter. The US cotton signing situation has also improved. It is expected that cotton will have short - term support, and investors can build long positions at low prices but not chase high [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: In single - side trading, it is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will be range - bound, and the technical performance of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. Investors can consider building long positions at low prices and not chasing high. In arbitrage and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The overall quotation of the pure - cotton yarn market is stable with a slight increase. Low - count yarn and rotor - spun yarn face substitution pressure from imported yarn, and their sales are slightly sluggish. Although cotton yarn sales are good and spinning mills' inventories have decreased, due to the rising price of raw material cotton, the increase in yarn prices cannot fully cover the cost increase, and some spinning mills with low cotton inventories still face profit challenges. The production and sales of all - cotton grey fabrics are stable, with sufficient inventory of conventional varieties and continuous sales. The inquiry situation in the regional market and factories continues, and the seasonal orders are acceptable. Currently, the on - machine orders are sufficient, but the follow - up new orders are insufficient. Only the orders for thin fabrics in export sales are in good demand, and clothing orders are average. Currently, fabric mills maintain procurement based on orders, and their cotton yarn inventory is maintained at about 10 - 15 days [10]. Third Part: Options - **Option Contract Data**: On January 19, 2026, for the option contract CF605C14600.CZC, the underlying contract price was 14545.00, the closing price was 334.00, down 16.9%, with an implied volatility of 13.3%. For CF605C14200.CZC, the underlying contract price was 14545.00, the closing price was 511.00, down 17.7%, with an implied volatility of 11.3%. For CF605P13800.CZC, the underlying contract price was 14545.00, the closing price was 60.00, down 34.1%, with an implied volatility of 11.2%. The 60 - day HV of cotton is 9.2812, and the volatility has increased slightly compared with the previous day [12]. - **Option Strategy Suggestion**: The previous day, the position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.8667, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options have decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see in options trading [13][14]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external cotton price difference under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [15][19][25][27]

Report Overview - The report is an iron ore daily report dated March 12, 2026, focusing on the iron ore market [2] Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: DCE01 closed at 749.5, up 9.0 from yesterday; DCE05 closed at 795.5, up 8.0; DCE09 closed at 766.5, up 8.0 [2] - **Spread Changes**: I01 - I05 spread was -46.0, up 1.0; I05 - I09 spread was 29.0, unchanged; I09 - I01 spread was 17.0, down 1.0 [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Various iron ore powders and concentrates showed price changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. For example, PB powder (60.8%) increased by 1 to 770, while super special powder decreased by 1 to 654 [2] - **Base Differences**: The base differences between different contracts and spot prices were provided, with the optimal delivery product being BRBF (62.5%) [2] - **Price Spreads**: Spreads between different spot varieties were also presented, such as the spread between PB powder and super special powder increasing by 2 to 120 [2] Indexes and Profits - **Platts Indexes**: The Platts iron ore 61% price was 105.1, up 0.3; the 65% price was 124.5, up 0.3; the 58% price remained unchanged at 95.6 [2] - **Import Profits**: Import profits of different iron ore varieties changed, with some increasing and some remaining stable. For example, the import profit of PB powder increased by 3 to -10 [2] - **USD Spreads**: The spreads between SGX and DCE contracts decreased, with SGX - DCE01 down 0.2 to 11.9, SGX - DCE05 down 0.5 to 5.9, and SGX - DCE09 down 0.2 to 9.6 [2] Graphs - The report included multiple graphs showing the base differences between the optimal delivery product and different contracts, cross - period spreads, import profits of different iron ore varieties, price spreads between different varieties, and the relationship between iron ore internal and external USD spreads and steel mill cash profits [8][11][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price maintained a volatile trend today, rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon. The overall spot trading volume of steel was average, with most purchases at low futures and spot prices. This week, the output of the five major steel products increased slightly, with rebar production continuing to increase and hot-rolled coil production decreasing. Steel mills are still in the mode of shutdown and maintenance, and it is expected that the molten iron output will continue to decline this week. Recently, downstream demand has seasonally rebounded, and the demand performance is acceptable, but the inventory is still accumulating rapidly. Among them, the inventory of rebar is accumulating at a faster rate, while the hot-rolled coil has started to destock this week. Recently, the capital availability of downstream construction sites across the country has improved, but the resumption of work and capital situation are still weaker than in previous years. Recently, the export orders have been performing well, which has improved the supply and demand of hot-rolled coils, but the overall inventory level is still high, and there is pressure on supply and demand. However, recently, the geopolitical friction overseas has increased, and the energy prices and shipping freight rates have continued to rise. If the friction intensifies in the future, it may drive up the raw material costs of steel. After the market closed, there was news that the sales of Newman powder were blocked, which may affect the subsequent iron ore supply. Therefore, the steel price will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term. In the future, attention still needs to be paid to the molten iron production situation, downstream demand performance, and overseas geopolitical frictions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: The prices of RB05, RB10, and RB01 increased by 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and 4 yuan/ton respectively compared to yesterday. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as RB01 - RB05 decreased by 1 yuan/ton, and RB10 - RB01 increased by 1 yuan/ton. The disk profits of 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 12 yuan/ton, 12 yuan/ton, and 15 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Rebar Spot**: The prices of rebar in various regions increased by 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the cheapest delivery product for 05, 10, and 01 contracts is 70 yuan/ton, 41 yuan/ton, and 16 yuan/ton respectively. The regional price differences remained mostly unchanged, and the spot profits in different regions also changed to varying degrees, such as the adjusted rolling profit increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the East China rebar profit increased by 5 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot-rolled Coil Futures**: The prices of HC05, HC10, and HC01 increased by 6 yuan/ton, 6 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively compared to yesterday. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as HC01 - HC05 increased by 1 yuan/ton, and HC10 - HC01 decreased by 1 yuan/ton. The disk profits of 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 11 yuan/ton, 11 yuan/ton, and 12 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Hot-rolled Coil Spot**: The prices of hot-rolled coils in various regions increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis of the cheapest delivery product for 05, 10, and 01 contracts is -15 yuan/ton, -24 yuan/ton, and -39 yuan/ton respectively. The regional price differences remained mostly unchanged, and the spot profits in different regions also changed to varying degrees, such as the Tianjin hot-rolled coil profit increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the East China hot-rolled coil profit increased by 5 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3190 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3140 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3250 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3170 yuan (-) [5]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Follow the overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [7]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices, and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Important Information** - As of March 11 (the 23rd day of the first lunar month), the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites across the country is 42.5%, a month-on-month increase of 19 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.2 percentage points in the lunar calendar; the labor attendance rate is 43.9%, a month-on-month increase of 14.2 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.8 percentage points in the lunar calendar; the capital availability rate is 42.8%, a month-on-month increase of 7.4 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points in the lunar calendar [9]. - On March 12, Minister of Justice He Rong stated at the third "Ministers' Passage" of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress that this year's government legislation work will focus on several aspects, one of which is to optimize the business environment, formulate regulations for the construction of a unified national market, and address issues such as local protection, improper access conditions, and "involutionary" competition [10]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the base price of rebar and hot-rolled coil contracts in different periods, the price difference between contracts, the disk profit, the cash profit, and other data trends over the years [15][17][22].

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 3 月 12 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5922 | 38 | 94 | 117753 | 8081 | 191953 | -11557 | | SM主力合约 | 6162 | 46 | 70 | 200890 | 32712 | 366997 | -2309 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5650 | 30 | 150 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5900 | 50 | 50 | | ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 3 月 12 日 | 花生日报 | | | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | 数据 | | 花生数据日报 | 期货盘面 | | 期货 | PK604 | Z0018389 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/3/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 收盘价 | | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 50 0.62% | | 8008 | | 7,439 | -68.06% | 14,829 | -20.90% | | PK610 18 0.22% | | 8348 | | 3,729 | 56.88% | 9,146 | 28.31% | | PK601 12 0.14% | | 8372 | | 65 | -40.37% | 412 | 8.71% | | 现货与基差 | | | ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of U.S. corn has weakened, and crude oil is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is predicted that U.S. corn will oscillate strongly at the bottom. North China corn supply is still low, and the spot price of corn continues to rise, while the purchase price at the northern port is stable today. The price of wheat in North China continues to rise, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn remains low. However, farmers' grain sales are expected to increase in March, so the upward space for Northeast corn spot is limited, and the 05 corn contract will maintain a high - level oscillation [7]. - The 05 U.S. corn has support at 450 cents per bushel. It is advisable to wait and see for the 05 corn contract. For the 05 corn and starch, it is recommended to widen the spread when the price is low [8][9]. - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Data - Futures data: For different futures contracts such as C2601, C2605, C2509, CS2601, CS2605, CS2509, information on closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, trading volume change percentages, open interest, and open interest change percentages is provided. For example, the closing price of C2601 is 2371, with a price increase of 3 and a price increase percentage of 0.13%, a trading volume of 2,455 with a decrease of 22.04%, and an open interest of 12,128 with an increase of 4.16% [1]. - Spot price data: The spot prices and price changes of corn in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port are given. For example, the spot price in Qinggang is 2230 with a price increase of 10 [1]. - Starch price data: The spot prices and price changes of starch in different enterprises such as Longfeng, COFCO, Yihai (Heilongjiang), Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade are provided. For example, the spot price of Longfeng is 2830 with no price change [4]. - Spread data: Information on corn inter - period spreads, starch inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads is provided. For example, the C01 - C05 spread is - 25 with a change of 2 [4]. Market Analysis - **Corn**: Crude oil prices have risen, U.S. corn prices have increased, and the global corn supply pressure has weakened. U.S. corn will continue to oscillate strongly. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, with the import price from Brazil in July at 2319 yuan. The northern port's flat - hatch price is stable at around 2410 yuan, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area continues to rise. The deep - processing start - up rate has increased, and the spot price of corn continues to rise. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn remains low. Wheat and corn are being auctioned, the price of North China wheat is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened, reducing corn's cost - effectiveness. The domestic breeding demand is average, the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased, and the downstream has replenished stocks. The supply of Northeast corn has increased recently, and the price has continued to rise. The port inventory is low, and the purchase price at the northern port is stable today. The 05 corn contract oscillates strongly, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the auction policy [3][5]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong is still low, the spot price of Shandong corn is strong, and the starch price in Shandong is around 2970 yuan. The spot price of Northeast starch is also rising. This week, the corn starch inventory has decreased to 120.9 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The average income from by - products in the past few years has been over 600 yuan, and today the by - product contribution in Shandong is 652 yuan (713 yuan in Heilongjiang). The by - product price is relatively strong recently, higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. North China corn is strong in the short term, and Northeast corn is still rising. As the weather warms up, the supply of corn is expected to increase, the downstream start - up rate will increase, and the upward space for the corn spot price is limited. Enterprises are already profitable. The 05 starch contract oscillates strongly following corn, and the starch spot price is rising in the short term. It is expected that the 05 starch contract will oscillate within a narrow range in the short term [6]. Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the northern port's corn flat - hatch price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different indicators [13][14][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market continues to have a pattern of oversupply. The supply side has stable imports, and the production of domestic broadleaf pulp has decreased to 243,000 tons due to maintenance, while chemimechanical pulp remains flat. Port inventories have reached a high of 2.408 million tons. On the demand side, downstream industries are gradually resuming work after the holiday, and the consumption of offset paper and tissue paper has increased month - on - month, but overall procurement is mainly for rigid demand, with weak restocking efforts and poor cost transmission. The supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated [4]. - The supply - demand of offset paper shows a loose and weak balance. The supply side has seen a significant increase in production, and the demand side has benefited from the re - printing during the back - to - school season, with the shipment volume increasing by 20.1% month - on - month. However, terminal consumption has limited improvement, and downstream buyers mainly place orders for rigid demand without concentrated restocking. The enterprise inventory of 1.485 million tons has slightly increased month - on - month, and traders maintain a strategy of buying and selling as they go [4]. - Pulp valuation shows a differentiated and volatile trend. Broadleaf pulp is supported by a $20/ton increase in the foreign market, with relatively firm valuation; coniferous pulp is suppressed by futures funds and high inventories, with a weak downward valuation. Currently, pulp prices have reflected the foreign market cost and the expectation of loose supply, but the continuous accumulation of port inventories and the slow recovery of downstream demand have formed a suppression. The valuation has a ceiling and a floor. In the short term, the valuation fluctuates around the cost line and lacks a trending direction. It is necessary to wait for the results of the foreign market negotiations in March and the signal of downstream concentrated restocking. If the demand continues to be weaker than expected, the valuation may further decline [4]. - The valuation of offset paper is at a low level, suppressed by high supply, weak demand, and rigid costs. Paper mills are trying to hold prices, but there is a lack of demand support, and price inversions are common. In the short term, the demand during the back - to - school season cannot change the loose pattern, and the valuation will remain in a low - level fluctuation [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is advisable to mainly wait and see for SP2505, and short on rallies for OP2504. For arbitrage, it is advisable to mainly wait and see. For options, sell SP2605 - P - 5200 for SP and sell OP2604 - C - 4250 for OP [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Pulp Market**: The pulp market has an oversupply situation. The supply side has stable imports, domestic broadleaf pulp production decreases due to maintenance, and port inventories are at a high level. The demand side has a slow recovery, and the supply - demand contradiction persists [4]. - **Offset Paper**: The supply - demand of offset paper is in a loose balance. Production has increased, and demand has a slight improvement during the back - to - school season, but terminal consumption is limited, and inventory has a slight increase [4]. - **Pulp Valuation**: Pulp valuation is differentiated. Broadleaf pulp is supported by foreign market price increases, while coniferous pulp is suppressed by high inventories and futures funds. The valuation is in a range - bound state in the short term [4]. - **Offset Paper Valuation**: The valuation of offset paper is at a low level, suppressed by multiple factors, and will remain in a low - level fluctuation in the short term [4]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Double - Offset Paper - **Supply**: The production of double - offset paper has increased this week. The output is 198,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons or 13.1% from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate is 50.6%, an increase of 5.8% from the previous period. The weekly average profit is - 502.3 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin has decreased by 0.05 percentage points [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of double - offset paper production enterprises is 1.485 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. It is expected that the production inventory will continue to increase in the next period [12]. 3.3.2 Coated Paper - **Supply**: The production of coated paper has increased this week. The output is 83,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons or 12.2% from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate is 61.4%, an increase of 7.1% from the previous period. The weekly average profit is - 46.6 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profitability is under great pressure [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coated paper production enterprises is 436,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. It is expected that the production inventory will increase in the next period [20]. 3.3.3 Domestic Pulp - **Supply**: The sample output of Chinese broadleaf pulp is 243,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from last week. The sample output of chemimechanical pulp is 238,000 tons, the same as the previous period. The domestic pulp market is in a stable and wait - and - see state, and the production profit of broadleaf pulp is relatively stable [24]. 3.3.4 Wood Pulp - **Supply**: The average market price of domestic chemimechanical pulp is 2,575 yuan/ton, the same as the previous period. As of March 5, 2026, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports is 2.408 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 million tons or 0.3% [27]. 3.3.5 Pulp Demand - **Tissue Paper**: The supply of domestic tissue paper has increased. The output of sample paper enterprises is 287,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.93%. The inventory is 631,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10% [31]. - **White Cardboard**: The supply of white cardboard has remained flat this week. The output is 361,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 76.81%. The production plant inventory is 1.45 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons or 4.32% from the previous period. It is expected that the inventory level will remain at around 1.45 million tons in the next period [34]. 3.3.6 Paper Prices - **Double - Offset Paper and Coated Paper**: The average price of double - offset paper enterprises is stable, with the tax - included average price of 70g double - offset paper at 4,542.9 yuan/ton, the same as the previous period. The average price of coated paper enterprises is also stable, with the tax - included average price of 157g coated paper at 4,875.0 yuan/ton, the same as the previous period [41]. - **Various Pulp Types**: The spot tax - included average price of coniferous pulp is 5,260 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. The spot tax - included average price of broadleaf pulp is 4,600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The spot tax - included average price of chemimechanical pulp is 3,800 yuan/ton, the same as the previous period. The spot tax - included average price of unbleached pulp is 4,850 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02% [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the valuation of logs is moderately strong. The price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Shandong increased by 20 yuan to 770 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan to 790 yuan/cubic meter. The downstream southern construction timber prices also rose. The valuation support comes from the significant increase in the March FOB price and shipping costs, which raises the import cost. However, the factors suppressing the price are the concentrated arrival of logs in the short - term, the incomplete recovery of demand, and the large inventory accumulation, which restricts the upward price space. In the short term, there is a game between cost support and the weak supply - demand balance. It is expected that the price will remain stable next week. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of work progress and the recovery of New Zealand's log shipments. If the demand recovery is less than expected, the inventory pressure may further suppress the valuation [7]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - Supply side: New Zealand's log shipments decreased slightly month - on - month due to rising shipping costs and weather, but the arrival in China is still relatively concentrated. Rizhao Port and Xinminzhou Port are facing significant arrival pressure. - Demand side: The downstream is still in the process of post - holiday recovery. The average daily outbound volume of 13 ports nationwide decreased by 36.84% month - on - month. The outbound volumes in Jiangsu and Fujian decreased significantly, while only Shandong showed a slight increase. - Inventory side: The total inventory of softwood logs increased by 22.04% month - on - month to 2.99 million cubic meters [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Buy a small amount of long positions. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [8]. Core Logic Analysis - The valuation of logs is moderately strong. The price increase in some regions is due to the increase in import costs caused by rising FOB prices and shipping costs in March, but the concentrated arrival and weak demand limit the upward price space. The short - term price is expected to be stable, and future trends depend on downstream resumption and New Zealand's shipments [7]. Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - In February 2026, about 48 ships carrying New Zealand logs left the port, an increase of 19 ships month - on - month. The total shipment volume was about 1.816 million cubic meters, a 66% increase from January. Among them, 38 ships were bound for China, with a shipment volume of about 1.43 million cubic meters, accounting for 79% and a 53% increase from January. - From February 28 to March 6, 2026, a total of 11 ships (440,000 cubic meters) of New Zealand logs left the 12 ports for shipment, a decrease of 3 ships (90,000 cubic meters) week - on - week. Among them, 9 ships (350,000 cubic meters) were directly bound for China, a decrease of 1 ship (30,000 cubic meters) week - on - week. - From March 2 to March 8, 2026, 10 ships carrying New Zealand logs were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, a decrease of 4 ships (29% week - on - week), and the total arrival volume was about 392,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 63,000 cubic meters (14% week - on - week) [18]. Log Inventory - As of February 27, the total domestic log inventory of different materials was 2.99 million cubic meters, an increase of 540,000 cubic meters (22.04% week - on - week). The radiata pine inventory was 2.42 million cubic meters, an increase of 350,000 cubic meters (16.91% week - on - week). The North American timber inventory was 240,000 cubic meters, an increase of 140,000 cubic meters (140% week - on - week). The spruce/fir inventory was 150,000 cubic meters, an increase of 30,000 cubic meters (25% week - on - week). - As of February 27, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1,920,000 cubic meters, an increase of 164,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 811,428 cubic meters, an increase of 164,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian was 104,787 cubic meters, an increase of 16,767 cubic meters from the previous period [21]. Log Demand - As of February 27, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 6,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 3,500 cubic meters (36.84% week - on - week). Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 5,300 cubic meters, an increase of 300 cubic meters (6% week - on - week). The average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 0 cubic meters, a decrease of 2,100 cubic meters (100% week - on - week). The average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Fujian was 700 cubic meters, a decrease of 1,700 cubic meters (70.83% week - on - week). - As of March 4 (the 16th day of the first lunar month), the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites nationwide was 23.5%, a 14.6 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and the same as the lunar - year - on - lunar - year comparison. The labor attendance rate was 29.7%, a 14.2 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and a 2.2 - percentage - point increase compared with the same lunar period last year. The fund availability rate was 35.5%, a 6.5 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and a 0.5 - percentage - point increase compared with the same lunar period last year. For real - estate projects, the resumption rate was 22.4%, a 14.2 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and a 1.5 - percentage - point increase compared with the same lunar period last year. The labor attendance rate was 29.5%, a 10.3 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and a 7.8 - percentage - point increase compared with the same lunar period last year. The fund availability rate was 35.3%, a 6.9 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and a 7 - percentage - point increase compared with the same lunar period last year [25]. Log Prices - Shandong: This week, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port was 770 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter (2.67% week - on - week) compared with last week and a decrease of 70 yuan/cubic meter (8.33% year - on - year) compared with last year. - Jiangsu: This week, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port was 790 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan/cubic meter (1.28% week - on - week) compared with last week and a decrease of 40 yuan/cubic meter (4.82% year - on - year) compared with last year. - Shandong: This week, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm+ general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port was 1,150 yuan/cubic meter, the same as last week (0% week - on - week) and an increase of 100 yuan/cubic meter (9.52% year - on - year) compared with last year [32]. Downstream Timber Prices - For radiata pine timber, taking the 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1,270 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1,310 yuan/cubic meter. - For spruce/white pine timber, taking the 3000*40*90 white pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1,730 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1,680 yuan/cubic meter [35]. Import Log Costs - In March 2026, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs was 119 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 6 US dollars per cubic meter compared with last month. - In March 2026, the FOB price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20+ spruce logs was 125 euros per JAS cubic meter, the same as last month [41].