研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 01 月 28 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 【交易策略】 今日钢材盘面延续低位震荡，现货成交整体一般偏弱，价格较昨日持稳或微跌， 刚需低价拿货为主。本周布谷网公布，建材增产而热卷减产；螺纹库存持续累积，而 热轧总体仍然去库，总体厂库压力小于社库；本周下游工地资金到位情况有所改善， 导致建材表需回升；近期钢材出口出现下滑，但年前制造业补库需求仍存，叠加产量 下滑，热卷需求同样上升。1 月煤矿有所增产，蒙煤进口快速增加，但钢厂补库仍然持 续，预计 2 月煤矿或陆续减产；而 pb 粉结构性短缺问题尚未解决，1 季度同样为铁矿 传统发运淡季，钢厂存在补库刚需，成本存在支撑；但海外需求出现季节性回落，钢 材出口下滑，而近期铁水持续复产，也影响了钢材进一步上涨的空间。预计节前钢材 仍然跟随市场情绪维持震荡走势，波动率偏低。继续关注宏观消息对盘面的影响。后 续继续关注煤矿安 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 1 月 28 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5632 | 28 | 76 | 122823 | 10420 | 185904 | -13253 | | SM主力合约 | 5832 | 14 | 46 | 139854 | 35909 | 374987 | 3539 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5350 | 0 | 0 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5670 | -10 | -10 | | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: January 28, 2026 [2] IM Futures Market Summary - The underlying index, CSI 1000, closed at 8399.79, up 0.21%. The IM main contract rose 0.16% to close at 8377.8 points [4]. - The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 194,080 lots, down 68,320 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 382,766 lots, down 15,637 lots from the previous day [5]. - The main contract was at a discount of 21.99 points to the spot, up 2.96 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -1.84% [5]. Contract - Specific Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 1000 | 8399.79 | 0.21% | 34,966 | -4% | 627.4 billion | 0% | - | - | - | | IM2602 | 8407.40 | 0.22% | 33,363 | -24% | 5.59 billion | -23% | 56,743 | -4,390 | 1.14 billion | | IM2603 | 8377.80 | 0.16% | 114,744 | -28% | 19.16 billion | -27% | 180,338 | -11,585 | 3.63 billion | | IM2606 | 8242.60 | 0.31% | 31,617 | -26% | 5.19 billion | -25% | 107,190 | -2,172 | 2.12 billion | | IM2609 | 8075.00 | 0.30% | 14,356 | -17% | 2.31 billion | -16% | 38,495 | 2,510 | 750 million | [4] Main Seats Data - For different contracts (IM2602, IM2603, etc.), detailed data on the top - ranking members in terms of trading volume, long positions, and short positions, as well as their changes from the previous day, are provided [16][18][20] IF Futures Market Summary - The underlying index, CSI 300, closed at 4717.99, up 0.26%. The IF main contract rose 0.07% to close at 4732.8 points [21]. - The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 142,902 lots, down 62 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 325,948 lots, up 15,622 lots from the previous day [22]. - The main contract was at a premium of 14.81 points to the spot, up 2.3 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of 2.2% [22]. Contract - Specific Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4717.99 | 0.26% | 38,226 | - | 82.94 billion | - | - | - | - | | IF2602 | 4727.80 | 0.08% | 32,633 | -23% | - | - | 43,478 | - | 700 million | | IF2603 | 4732.80 | 0.07% | 84,387 | -4% | 11.98 billion | -3% | 185,840 | 7,628 | 3.17 billion | | IF2606 | 4716.80 | 0.12% | 18,810 | -8% | 2.66 billion | -8% | 75,464 | 1,638 | 1.28 billion | | IF2609 | 4670.20 | 0.08% | 7,072 | -16% | 900 million | - | 21,166 | 2 | 360 million | [21] Main Seats Data - For different contracts (IF2602, IF2603, etc.), detailed data on the top - ranking members in terms of trading volume, long positions, and short positions, as well as their changes from the previous day, are provided [33][35][36] IC Futures Market Summary - The underlying index, CSI 500, closed at 8601.16, up 0.61%. The IC main contract rose 0.68% to close at 8622 points [38]. - The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 170,659 lots, down 40,713 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 342,398 lots, down 904 lots from the previous day [39]. - The main contract was at a premium of 20.84 points to the spot, up 22.17 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of 1.7% [39]. Contract - Specific Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 500 | 8601.16 | 0.61% | 31,177 | 3% | 61.27 billion | 0% | - | - | - | | IC2602 | 8623.20 | 0.66% | 28,560 | -15% | 4.9 billion | -14% | 45,306 | -2,648 | 940 million | | IC2603 | 8622.00 | 0.68% | 94,115 | -23% | 16.15 billion | -22% | 167,295 | -5,924 | 3.46 billion | | IC2606 | 8574.80 | 1.04% | 37,044 | -11% | 6.31 billion | -9% | 98,677 | 5,130 | 2.03 billion | | IC2609 | 8469.00 | 1.08% | 10,940 | -23% | 1.84 billion | -21% | 31,120 | 2,538 | 630 million | [38] Main Seats Data - For different contracts (IC2602, IC2603, etc.), detailed data on the top - ranking members in terms of trading volume, long positions, and short positions, as well as their changes from the previous day, are provided [51][53][55] IH Futures Market Summary - The underlying index, SSE 50, closed at 3060.56, up 0.27%. The IH main contract fell 0.01% to close at 3069.8 points [57]. - The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 63,381 lots, down 4,488 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 118,402 lots, up 3,905 lots from the previous day [57]. - The main contract was at a premium of 9.24 points to the spot, down 2.37 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of 2.11% [58]. Contract - Specific Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 3060.56 | 0.27% | 9,637 | 28% | 25.26 billion | 25% | - | - | - | | IH2602 | 3065.60 | -0.03% | 14,236 | 5% | 1.31 billion | 5% | 17,477 | 942 | 190 million | | IH2603 | 3069.80 | -0.01% | 38,337 | -7% | 3.53 billion | -7% | 67,766 | 1,717 | 750 million | | IH2606 | 3070.00 | -0.13% | 7,689 | -12% | 710 million | -12% | 25,544 | 1,019 | 280 million | | IH2609 | 3046.00 | -0.09% | 3,119 | -28% | 290 million | -28% | 7,615 | 227 | 80 million | [57] Main Seats Data - For different contracts (IH2602, IH2603, etc.), detailed data on the top - ranking members in terms of trading volume, long positions, and short positions, as well as their changes from the previous day, are provided [69][71][73]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the recent drought in Argentina, the supply pressure has weakened, and it is expected that U.S. corn will oscillate strongly at the bottom. The supply of corn in North China has increased, and the spot price of corn is stable, while that in Northeast China is relatively stable. Farmers' reluctance to sell has begun to ease, and the spot price will remain relatively stable in the short term. The purchase price at northern ports is weak today. The price of wheat in North China is strong, and the price difference between corn in Northeast and North China is widening. Recently, the market has been trading on the increased grain sales in North China before the Spring Festival, and there is still selling pressure on corn in Northeast China later. The rebound space for corn spot is limited, and there is room for a decline in the March corn contract. The short - term outlook for the March starch contract is a weak oscillation [4][6][8]. Summary by Directory Part I: Data - **Futures Market Data**: For corn futures contracts C2601, C2605, and C2509, the closing prices are 2255, 2279, and 2297 respectively, with price changes of 4, - 3, and - 1, and price change rates of 0.18%, - 0.13%, and - 0.04%. For corn starch futures contracts CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509, the closing prices are 2588, 2610, and 2623 respectively, with price changes of 3, 2, and 6, and price change rates of 0.12%, 0.08%, and 0.23% [2]. - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot prices of corn in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, and Zhucheng Xingmao are 2160, 2220, and 2328 respectively, with price changes of 0. The basis values range from - 137 to 153. The spot prices of corn starch in different regions such as Longfeng, COFCO, and Yihai (Heilongjiang) are 2730, 2700, and 2700 respectively, with price changes of 0. The basis values range from 90 to 290 [2]. - **Spread Data**: For corn inter - delivery spreads like C01 - C05, C05 - C09, and C09 - C01, the spreads are - 24, - 18, and 42 respectively, with price changes of 7, - 2, and - 5. For corn starch inter - delivery spreads like CS01 - CS05, CS05 - CS09, and CS09 - CS01, the spreads are - 22, - 13, and 35 respectively, with price changes of 1, - 4, and 3. For cross - variety spreads like CS09 - C09, CS01 - C01, and CS05 - C05, the spreads are 326, 333, and 331 respectively, with price changes of 7, - 1, and 5 [2]. Part II: Market Analysis - **Corn**: The drought in Argentina has led to a bottom - rebound of U.S. corn, but it is still oscillating at the bottom due to global supply pressure. The import profit of foreign corn is rising. The northern port's flat - hatch price has declined, while the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply of corn in North China has decreased, and the spot price is strong. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has narrowed. Wheat and corn are still being auctioned. The price of wheat in North China is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn is large, which makes corn more cost - effective. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The supply of corn in the Northeast is still low, and the price is strong. Farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, and the port inventory is low. The purchase price at northern ports is weak today. The price of the March contract has continued to decline, and the basis of the spot price has strengthened [4][6]. - **Corn Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the spot price of corn in Shandong is stable. The spot price of corn starch in Shandong is around 2770 yuan, and that in the Northeast is stable. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 102.8 million tons, a decrease of 4.1 million tons from last week, a monthly decline of 6.7%, and a year - on - year decline of 8.0%. The price of starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. The by - product prices are still strong, much higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. Corn prices in North China and the Northeast are stable in the short term. Due to the end of pre - Spring Festival stocking, the spot price of starch is weak, and enterprises are still in the red. The March starch contract has followed the decline of corn, but the short - term decline space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Part III: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: The March U.S. corn contract has support at 420 cents per bushel. Consider establishing long positions in the July and May corn contracts [9]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: Hold off on trading for now [10]. Part IV: Corn Options - **Option Strategy**: Adopt a short - term cumulative put option strategy and conduct rolling operations [11]. Part V: Related Attachments - The attachments include six figures: the northern port's corn flat - hatch price, the basis of the May corn contract, the May - September spread of corn, the May - September spread of corn starch, the basis of the May corn starch contract, and the spread of the May corn starch contract [14][15][19].

黑色板块研发报告 铁矿石专题报告 2026 年 1 月 28 日 2025 年四季度全球四大矿山产销梳理 第一部分 前言概要 银河期货 第 1 页 共 10 页 铁矿石专题报告 2026 年 1 月 28 日 黑色板块研发报告 第二部分 四季度全球铁矿石产销梳理 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 2020/06 2020/10 2021/02 2021/06 2021/10 2022/02 2022/06 2022/10 2023/02 2023/06 2023/10 2024/02 2024/06 2024/10 2025/02 2025/06 2025/10 VALE产量 万吨 VALE销量 万吨 产量同比 % 销量同比 % 图 1：VALE 产销统计 图 2：VALE 分品种销量 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 2020/06 2020/10 2021/02 2021/06 2021/10 2022/02 2022/06 ...

银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 28 日 0 / 49 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：压力有所减轻 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：股债跷跷板 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应仍有压力 | 盘面走势偏强 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外盘走势现分歧，郑糖底部震荡 6 | | | 油脂板块：油脂有所分化 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货稳定，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货震荡运行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：整体变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价延续震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面乏善可陈，关注资金扰动 14 | | 铁矿：终端需求低位，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：估值偏低存在修复需求，短期震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：特朗普"暗示"弱美元，金银维持强势 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：美元信任危机 贵 ...

原油日报 2026 年 1 月 27 日 原油现货市场日报 | 极端天气 | 美国大部分地区遭遇严寒天气，提振供暖需求并中断供应，推动该国天 | | --- | --- | | | 然气价格延续惊人涨势，午间飙升 40%。 | | | 周末席卷美国的大规模冬季风暴严重冲击油气生产商，以及将原材料加 | | | 工成汽油至塑料等各种产品的工业工厂 | | 贸易物流 | 印度石油公司高管周二表示，在减少俄罗斯原油进口后，这家印度最大 | | | 炼油企业已承诺从四月起的新财年增加巴西原油采购量。 | | | 一船石脑油已抵达委内瑞拉海岸，这是自华盛顿方面扣押该国领导人尼 | | | 古拉斯·马杜罗以来首批运抵的货物，也是重振这个南美国家原油生产 | | | 的关键一步。 | | | 知情人士透露，哈萨克斯坦卡拉恰甘纳克油田运营方、西方能源巨头已 | | | 在国际仲裁案中败诉，需向该国政府赔偿高达 40 亿美元。 | | | 欧佩克+代表们表示，在应对全球供应过剩和地缘政治风险浪潮之际， | | | 该组织周日开会时预计将坚持下月维持石油产量稳定的计划。 | | | 国际与当地企业高管及律师表示，委内瑞拉拟议的石 ...

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 | 行情复盘 | 3 | | | 一、年后现货拐点逐渐确立后步入下跌通道，近远月驱动出现分化 | 3 | | 第三部分 | 基本面情况 | 5 | | | 一、集运市场开始步入传统货运淡季，现货运价出现拐点后进入下跌通道. | 5 | | | 二、年末集装箱新船交付量出现大幅抬升，关注新年集装箱新船下水情况 | | | | | 10 | | 三、12 | 月中国出口数据强势收官，出口结构表现继续分化 | 21 | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 28 | 航运板块研发报告 集运指数（欧线）月报 2026 年 1 月 27 日 1 月现货拐点已现，关注地缘动态进展 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 运价方面，1 月现货高点已现，旺季货量筑顶回落后，主流船司相继调降现 货报价，现货运价步入快速下跌通道中，截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，SCFI 欧线报 1595 美金/TEU，已经连续三周下跌。预计节后集 ...

研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2026 年 01 月 27 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 757.0 | 755.0 | 2.0 | I01-I05 | -31.0 | -29.5 | -1.5 | | DCE05 | 788.0 | 784.5 | 3.5 | I05-I09 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 0.0 | | DCE09 | 769.5 | 766.0 | 3.5 | I09-I01 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 1.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 789 | 800 | -11 | 857 | 94 | 64 | 83 | | 纽曼粉 | 789 | 800 | -11 | 863 | 100 | 70 | 89 | | 麦克粉 | 789 | 800 | -11 | 871 | 108 | 79 | 9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term oils and fats are fluctuating and rising, with increased volatility and many uncertainties, and the contradictions are not prominent. It is recommended that those without positions temporarily wait and not chase the high, and not rush to short. For rapeseed oil, a long - short spread strategy for the 3 - 5 contracts is recommended, and for options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2605 contract are 8258, 9238, and 9326 respectively. The basis of each variety in different regions is given, with some showing no change in the basis. For example, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang is 540 with no change [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The 5 - 9 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 86, 74, and 61 respectively, with changes of - 2, 32, and - 29 [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 05 contract, the Y - P spread is - 980 with a change of - 114, the OI - Y spread is 1068 with a change of - 51, and the OI - P spread is 88 with a change of - 165. The oil - meal ratio is 2.99 with a change of 0.01 [2] - **Import Profit**: The import profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 130, and that of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 976 [2] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 4th week of 2026, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 95.6, 74.2, and 25.2 million tons respectively, showing different trends compared with last week and the same period last year [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From January 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to be 746,745 tons, a 9.41% decrease compared with the same period last month [4] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: The market has a strong bullish sentiment. The palm oil futures price fluctuated and closed up, rising more than 1%. As of January 23, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil is 74.23 million tons, a 0.51% decrease from last week. The import profit is inverted, and the basis is stable and weak. It is expected that the de - stocking speed will be slow in the later stage [4] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil futures price fluctuated and closed slightly up. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1021 million tons, and the operating rate was 57.83%. As of January 23, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 95.6 million tons, a 0.76% decrease from last week. The basis is stable. The inventory is expected to slightly decrease, but the supply is sufficient [5][7] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil futures price fluctuated and closed slightly down. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0%. As of January 23, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 25.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons. The import profit is inverted, and the basis is supported. It is expected that the rapeseed oil will continue to de - stock, and the decline space of the near - month contract is limited [7] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term oils and fats are fluctuating and rising, with many uncertainties. Those without positions are recommended to wait and not chase the high, and not rush to short [9] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: A long - short spread strategy for the 3 - 5 contracts of rapeseed oil is recommended [10] - **Option Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [11] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of different oils and fats, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2017 - 2026, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][15][19]