Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions, important information, logical analysis, and trading strategies of L plastic and PP polypropylene from September 19 to October 29, 2025. It provides investment suggestions based on various factors such as price trends, supply and demand, and macro - economic indicators. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: Prices showed partial fluctuations, with some regions experiencing price increases or decreases. Futures prices also fluctuated, affecting market sentiment and trading volume. For example, on October 29, L2601 closed at 6984 points, down 1 point or - 0.01% [1]. - **PP Polypropylene**: Market prices were mostly in a state of weak adjustment. Futures prices affected the spot market, and downstream demand was generally cautious. For instance, on October 29, PP2601 closed at 6664 points, up 7 points or + 0.11% [1]. Important Information - **Industry Policies**: The seven - department issued the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of over 5% in industry added value and promoting high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [8][53]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: In the first three quarters, China's industrial production grew rapidly, and enterprise efficiency improved. Some industries and products achieved growth, and the export of industrial products accelerated [4]. - **International Events**: The US government shutdown led to a lack of official data, increasing the difficulty of decision - making for central banks in other countries [30]. Logical Analysis - **Supply - related Factors**: Factors such as production capacity utilization, net imports, and registered warehouse receipts affected the market. For example, as of August, the labor employment rate and resignation rate in the plastic products industry in Taiwan Province both increased, with the difference showing a narrowing increase, which was negative for polyolefin single - side trading [5]. - **Demand - related Factors**: Downstream demand, including the demand in the automotive, construction, and other industries, influenced the market. For example, the growth of the global plastic additive consumption was related to the output growth of plastic end - consumption fields [47]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: Macroeconomic indicators such as the EuroCoin index, PMI, and real estate data had an impact on the polyolefin market. For example, in September, the EuroCoin index strengthened for six consecutive months, which was positive for polyolefin single - side trading [5]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Strategies included holding long or short positions, or taking a wait - and - see approach. For example, on October 29, it was recommended to reduce long positions in L and PP [1]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: Most of the time, a wait - and - see approach was recommended. For example, on October 29, it was suggested to wait and see for arbitrage trading [2]. - **Options Trading**: Some contracts were recommended for selling or holding, with stop - loss settings. For example, on October 29, it was recommended to sell and hold the L2601 put 6800 contract and set a stop - loss at the recent high of 34.5 points [2].

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 10 月 28 日 航运日报 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | | | | 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2512 | 1,788.3 | 13.3 | 0.75% | 26,019.0 | -6.23% | 28,900.0 | 3.23% | | EC2602 | 1,548.7 | -22.9 | -1.46% | 6,213.0 | 0.63% | 13,910.0 | 5.88% | | EC2604 | 1,162.7 | -16.1 | -1.37% | 2,279.0 | 11.44% | 14,279. ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 10 月 28 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/28 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8182 | (52) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8402 | | | | 8482 | 8342 | | 300 | 0 | 220 | 0 | 160 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8958 | (142) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8858 | | | | 89 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of the international soybean market remains relatively loose, with the US market showing a strong trend due to a significant increase in exports, while the Brazilian soybean market faces price pressure from the high - expected yield of new crops [4][5]. - The domestic supply and demand of soybean meal are relatively loose, with inventory pressure still present. Rapeseed meal inventory is at a relatively low level, but demand is also general, and prices lack obvious fluctuations [8]. - The recent strong performance of the US soybean futures is mainly driven by macro factors. Considering the fundamentals, the overall pressure is still relatively large, and the subsequent rebound space is expected to be limited [8]. - It is recommended to short the 05 contract, adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide straddles for options [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - The US soybean futures continued to show a strong upward trend, mainly influenced by macro - level positives. The domestic soybean meal futures oscillated, with a smaller increase than that of US soybeans, and the soybean crushing profit continued to face significant downward pressure. Rapeseed meal futures showed a strong upward trend, mainly following the rebound of soybean meal [3]. - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a downward trend. The inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures increased, mainly affected by the repair of crushing profit and limited supply [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis International Market - The fundamentals of the US soybean market have changed little. The new - crop yield is expected to have a slight decrease in yield per unit, which provides some support for prices. However, in the absence of other positive factors, the upward space of the futures is limited [4]. - In South America, the supply - side influence has increased. Brazil's new - crop sowing has started, and the progress is fast, which is generally positive for the supply side. It is expected that the export volume will continue to increase significantly. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and recent crushing and exports have increased significantly [4]. Domestic Market - The domestic spot market is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand. The oil refinery operating rate continues to increase, with sufficient supply and increased pick - up volume, and the inventory remains at a high level. The market trading volume has decreased, and the wait - and - see sentiment has increased [6]. - As of October 24, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil refineries was 2.3674 million tons, the operating rate was 65.13%, the soybean inventory was 7.5129 million tons, a decrease of 174,100 tons or 2.26% from the previous week, and an increase of 1.9282 million tons or 34.53% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0546 million tons, an increase of 78,400 tons or 8.03% from the previous week, and an increase of 180 tons or 0.17% year - on - year [6]. - The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has gradually weakened recently. The oil refinery operating rate has decreased, the supply of rapeseed is relatively low, and the supply pressure still exists. It is expected that rapeseed meal will mainly oscillate [6]. 3.3 Macro - level Analysis - The market has recently been more affected by macro factors. The Sino - US negotiations have sent positive signals, causing the US soybean futures to rise significantly. After the short - term reaction to macro - level factors, the subsequent impact is expected to be relatively limited, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes [7]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The futures are showing a strong upward trend, driven by the increase in cost. However, the US soybean futures are more positively affected and have a larger increase than soybean meal [8]. - Overall, the international soybean market supply is still relatively loose. The smooth progress of Brazil's new - crop sowing is expected to maintain a relatively high yield, with limited subsequent price support and obvious overall pressure [8]. - The inter - monthly spread of soybean meal futures decreased today, mainly reflecting the impact of macro factors, and the subsequent decline space is expected to be limited. The decline of rapeseed meal's inter - monthly spread is also affected by that of soybean meal, and there may still be pressure in the future under the general demand situation [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to short the 05 contract. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. - Options: Use the strategy of selling wide straddles (the views are for reference only and not as a basis for trading) [9].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the hog market dated October 28, 2025, titled "Hog Daily Report: Supply Pressure Continues to Improve, Spot Prices Keep Rebounding" [1] Group 2: Price Information Spot Prices - Today, hog spot prices across the country showed an overall upward trend. The average price was 12.36 yuan/kg, up 0.38 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in various regions all increased, with the largest increase of 0.43 yuan/kg in Guangxi and the smallest increase of 0.22 yuan/kg in Shaanxi [3] Futures Prices - Hog futures prices showed a downward trend. Contracts LH01, LH03, LH05, LH07, and LH09 all declined, while LH11 increased by 30. The LH9 - 1 spread increased by 95, and the LH11 - 1 spread increased by 200 [3] Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices rose from 165 yuan last week to 174 yuan this week, an increase of 9 yuan. Sow prices remained unchanged at 1545 yuan [3] Spot Breeding Profits - The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising increased from - 244.70 yuan to - 185.68 yuan, an increase of 59.01 yuan. The profit for purchasing piglets increased from - 375.29 yuan to - 289.07 yuan, an increase of 86.22 yuan [3] Slaughter and Pig Weight Spreads - The slaughter volume decreased from 165,524 heads yesterday to 163,876 heads today, a decrease of 1,648 heads. The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increased by 0.04 yuan, while the spread between large pigs and standard pigs decreased by 0.08 yuan [3] Group 3: Core Views - The supply pressure in the hog market has improved, but due to the relatively high inventory and high slaughter weight, the overall supply pressure may still persist, and the subsequent spot prices are expected to be weak. The futures prices are expected to have limited upside space and will mainly fluctuate [3][4] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - Options: Adopt the strategy of selling a wide straddle [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overall, the global trade situation is showing signs of improvement, with positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the APEC meeting upcoming. The macro - economic sentiment is stable and positive. Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. Some metals face supply - side challenges, while others are affected by demand - side factors [1][16][20][24][28][59] - For copper, the macro sentiment improves, but the supply - side disturbances increase. The terminal consumption is weak, and the price is affected by multiple factors. For alumina, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to bottom out in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption has resilience, with a medium - term upward trend. For zinc, the external market is strong, and the internal market is weak, and the export situation needs to be closely monitored. For lead, the inventory is low in the short term, and the supply is expected to increase in the long term. For nickel, the price is in a range - bound operation. For stainless steel, the price faces resistance. For tin, the supply is tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. For industrial silicon, the production is expected to decrease, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. For polycrystalline silicon, the production is expected to decrease, and the inventory will accumulate but at a reduced rate. For lithium carbonate, the demand is optimistic, and the supply is tight, with a strong price trend [1][6][12][16][20][28][34][36][44][48][54][60][67][73][80] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 86,980 yuan/ton, down 1.09%. The spot premium widened. The Guangdong inventory decreased slightly, and the North China premium remained unchanged [1] - **Important Information**: China's central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading. Sino - US high - level interactions are being prepared. Indonesia may allow copper concentrate exports. CMOC will invest in the KFM copper mine expansion. Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased [1] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro sentiment improves, but the supply - side disturbances increase. The SMM expects the October electrolytic copper production to decline. The consumption is weak, but there is still some resilience [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then go long on dips. Hold the inter - market long position. Wait and see for options [10] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell 8 yuan to 2,817 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions were stable, with some minor declines [6] - **Related Information**: Some enterprises made spot purchases. The national alumina inventory increased. The Australian alumina price decreased, and the import cost increased. The supply remained stable [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is in excess, and the pressure is increasing. The price is expected to bottom out in the short term and may rebound if production cuts expand. The import increment will suppress the price rebound [12] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the supply - side production cuts in November. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract fell 120 yuan to 21,140 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions had different changes [16] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held. The aluminum inventory increased slightly. An overseas aluminum smelter had a production cut [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The global trade situation eases, and the macro sentiment is positive. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption has resilience [20] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price has a medium - term upward trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21][22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract fell 110 yuan to 20,575 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions increased [24] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The APEC meeting is upcoming. The cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased. The import and export volumes of aluminum alloy changed [24][25] - **Trading Logic**: The macro factors are important. The cost is supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand has resilience [28] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum alloy price fluctuates with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.02% to 22,310 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased slightly, but the downstream procurement was poor [31] - **Related Information**: The domestic zinc inventory increased. Teck's Q3 zinc concentrate production decreased. Chihong Zinc & Germanium released its Q3 report. Shengda Resources' subsidiary's mine will resume production [32][33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is abundant, and the overseas inventory is low. The external market is strong, and the internal market is weak. The export situation needs to be closely monitored [34][36] - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit on long positions and wait and see. Consider short - selling on rallies if the export volume is low. Consider long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage according to the export situation. Wait and see for options [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 fell 0.91% to 17,355 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased, and the procurement enthusiasm declined [39] - **Related Information**: Some lead battery enterprises plan to reduce or stop production. A lead smelter is under maintenance. The lead inventory decreased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term inventory is low, and the price rose. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory may gradually accumulate [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money call options [45] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2512 fell 1,760 to 120,560 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of some nickel types decreased [46] - **Important Information**: Indonesia's nickel production is expanding. A nickel mine in the Philippines may be shut down. India is expanding e - waste recycling. A company in Indonesia won a nickel mining contract [47] - **Logic Analysis**: The precious metal correction led to a decline in non - ferrous metals. The LME nickel inventory is increasing, and the price is range - bound [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is in a range - bound operation. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell the 2512 contract wide - straddle combination [49][51] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel main contract SS2512 fell 65 to 12,750 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were in a certain range [53] - **Important Information**: Baosteel Desheng plans to reduce production and conduct maintenance. The export volume of stainless steel from Indonesia to Taiwan increased. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group remained unchanged [54] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand is not optimistic, and the cost support is weak. The price faces resistance [54] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage [55][56] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,170 yuan/ton, down 1,790 yuan/ton. The spot price increased, and the demand was affected by price fluctuations [58] - **Related Information**: Sino - US trade consultations are ongoing. The APEC meeting is upcoming. The domestic mobile phone shipment data was released [59] - **Logic Analysis**: The Sino - US trade situation may ease. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is slowly recovering [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is in a high - level range - bound operation. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The September export volume of industrial silicon decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The import volume decreased [64][66] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in November, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. The short - term price is relatively stable [67] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long on dips and wait for new drivers. No arbitrage opportunity for now. Sell out - of - the - money put options [68][69][70] Polycrystalline Silicon - **Important Information**: Three construction projects of the Three Gorges Group released tender announcements [72] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of polycrystalline silicon is expected to decrease in November, and the inventory will accumulate but at a reduced rate. The price has support [73] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Reduce long positions in the short term and buy on dips in the future. Conduct reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts. Hold call options [74][75][76] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 560 to 81,640 yuan/ton. The spot price increased [79] - **Important Information**: Xinwangda launched a new battery. Pilbara's Q3 lithium concentrate production increased. The sales of new - energy heavy - duty trucks increased [80] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand is optimistic, and the supply is tight. The price trend is strong, but there may be a correction [80] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [81][82]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Internationally, the new - season supply of global corn is loose. The production of US corn reaches a new high, and it will be in a long - term bottom - oscillating state. Brazilian corn has a good harvest, and its exports are higher than the same period last year [10][11][20]. - Domestically, the production of new - season corn increases, and the planting cost decreases. However, there is significant selling pressure in the Northeast. Feed demand is growing, and corn has a high cost - performance ratio. Deep - processing of corn starts to make profits, and the operating rate rebounds. The inventories of north - south ports are starting to rise, but the corn inventory in the north port is still low. Corn and starch will mainly fluctuate within a certain range in the future [27][32][55][73][78]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In October, the USDA report was not released. The yield per unit of US corn might continue to be lowered, but its production reached a new high, and it oscillated narrowly around 420 cents per bushel. In October, corn in Northeast and North China was concentrated on the market, and the spot price of corn dropped significantly. The purchase price at the north port fell to 2,070 yuan per ton and then rebounded to 2,120 yuan per ton in late October. The downstream demand for corn starch was still weak, and the starch inventory was at a historical high. However, due to the large drop in corn prices, the profit of starch enterprises was good, and the operating rate increased. The 01 - contract corn oscillated downward, and the price difference between corn and starch widened [4]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Internationally, the yield per unit of US corn might continue to be lowered later, and the 12 - contract of US corn had strong support at 400 cents per bushel. However, its production was at a high level, and the expected rebound height was limited. It would be in a long - term bottom - oscillating state. Domestically, a large amount of corn in Jilin would be on the market in November, and there was still room for the spot price of corn to fall. Considering the low inventories of traders and downstream enterprises and the possible reluctance of farmers to sell, the purchase price at the north port might have support at 2,050 yuan per ton. The 01 - contract corn might have strong support around 2,090 yuan. For starch, due to the stable price of by - products, deep - processing would still make profits after a large amount of new - season corn was on the market. However, considering the weak downstream demand and high inventory, the profit of starch enterprises was expected to shrink, and the 01 - contract starch was expected to oscillate narrowly. The price difference between corn and starch on the futures market might shrink [5]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: Go long on US corn with a light position around 400 cents per bushel. For the 01 - contract corn, conduct short - term long operations between 2,090 - 2,150 yuan, and for the 05 - contract, conduct short - term long operations between 2,190 - 2,250 yuan. - Arbitrage: Narrow the price difference between the 01 - contract corn and starch when it is between 270 - 320 yuan. - Options: Sell corn put options (c2601 - P - 2100) when the futures price falls to a low point [6]. 3.2 Second Part: International Corn Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Global Corn New - Season Supply is Loose - The USDA monthly data was not released in October, so the September report was used as a benchmark. The September USDA report showed a loose supply. In September 2025, the global corn production decreased month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year, and consumption increased. The expected global corn production in the 25/26 season was 1.287 billion tons, slightly lower than the previous month's 1.288 billion tons but higher than the previous year's 1.223 billion tons, with a year - on - year increase of 57.67 million tons. The total domestic consumption was 1.281 billion tons, higher than the previous year's 1.249 billion tons. The expected ending inventory was 281 million tons, lower than the previous year's 284 million tons, and the stock - to - use ratio was 21.97% [10]. 3.2.2 US Corn Production Reaches a New High, Domestic Ethanol Production Will Still Increase, and US Corn Oscillates at the Bottom - In the September report, the new - season area of US corn was revised up month - on - month, and the yield per unit was lowered. The area of US corn in the 25/26 season was about 98.7 million acres, higher than 97.3 million acres in August and much higher than 90.6 million acres last year. The yield per unit of US corn might continue to be lowered later, and the 12 - contract of US corn would oscillate at the bottom. The current ethanol production of US corn was at a high level, and the fuel ethanol inventory continued to decline. The net short position of US corn was also decreasing. As of September 23, the net short position of US corn was - 51,000 lots, and the 12 - contract of US corn was expected to have strong support around 400 cents per bushel [11][13]. 3.2.3 Brazilian Corn Has a Good Harvest, and Exports are Higher than the Same Period Last Year - The exports of Brazil's second - crop corn started to be higher than last year. In September, the exports were 6.98 million tons, and from January to September 2025, the cumulative exports of Brazil were 23.95 million tons, higher than 23.62 million tons in the same period last year. As of October 24, the import cost in December was 2,152 yuan per ton, and the import profit was 158 yuan per ton [20][22]. 3.3 Third Part: Domestic Corn Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 New - Season Production Increases and Planting Cost Decreases, with Significant Selling Pressure in the Northeast - Currently, there is significant selling pressure on corn in the Northeast, and the spot price of corn oscillates at the bottom. In October, the main selling pressure came from the concentrated listing of farm - produced corn in Heilongjiang, corn in Liaoning, and corn in North China. The purchase price at the north port fell to a low of 2,070 yuan per ton. From mid - October to the end of October, due to the fact that a large amount of corn in Jilin was not on the market, the spot price of corn rebounded. However, from the end of October to early November, with the concentrated listing of corn in Jilin and North China, the spot price of corn is expected to fall again, and the purchase price may reach a low of around 2,050 yuan per ton in the short term. Since the inventories of traders, downstream feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are low, there is an intention to build inventories. It is expected that the decline of corn in Jilin is limited, and the purchase price at the north port has support at 2,050 yuan per ton in the short term. In the 25/26 season, the land rent decreased, and the yield per unit increased, resulting in a significant increase in the national production. It is expected that the national corn production will increase by 11 - 12 million tons [26][27]. 3.3.2 Feed Demand Increases, and Corn Has a High Cost - Performance Ratio - Feed demand continues to grow. According to data from the Feed Industry Association, the feed production in September was 30.36 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to September was 246.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the feed production in September was 31.29 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to September was 250.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The profit of pig farming continues to decline, but the pig inventory is higher than the same period last year. As of October 23, the self - breeding and self - raising profit per pig was - 149 yuan, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 279 yuan. The inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms in September was 36.85 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.44% and a year - on - year increase of 5.29%. The profit of white - feather broilers is still in the red, but the inventory of laying hens is still high. It is expected that feed demand will continue to increase in November [32]. 3.3.3 Deep - Processing of Corn Starts to Make Profits, and the Operating Rate Rebounds - In October 2025, the spot price of corn dropped significantly, and the price of by - products was relatively stable. Starch enterprises have started to make profits, and the operating rate has increased. However, the downstream demand is still weak, and the starch inventory is still at a historical high. As of October 22, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 2.622 million tons, higher than 2.12 million tons in the same period last month but lower than 3.03 million tons in the same period last year. The operating rate of starch enterprises continued to rebound, reaching 55.62% as of October 22. The starch inventory is higher than last year, and the profit of starch enterprises has increased. It is expected that in November, with the continuous loose supply of new - season corn, the spot price of corn still has room to fall, and the profit of the starch industry will remain high. The downstream demand for starch is still weak, and the increase in the import volume of cassava starch will suppress the demand for corn starch [55][56]. 3.3.4 North - South Port Inventories Start to Rise, and the Corn Inventory in the North Port is Low - In October, the corn inventory in the north port started to rise, and the grain inventory in the south port also increased, but the corn inventory in the north port was still at a low level. As of October 17, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 959,000 tons, a decrease of 513,000 tons compared with the same period last year. It is expected that in November, due to the significant increase in the shipping volume, the inventory accumulation in the north port may be relatively slow. The domestic and foreign trade inventories of Guangdong Port and the inventories of imported sorghum and barley have increased, and the grain inventory is higher than the same period last year. With the successive listing of new - season corn, the inventories of north - south ports will continue to accumulate in November [73]. 3.3.5 Trading Logic of Corn and Starch - In October 2025, with the concentrated listing of corn, the spot price of corn dropped significantly. From the end of October to early November, there will still be selling pressure on corn, and the spot price is expected to fall, but there may be a rebound in mid - November. For starch, it is expected that starch enterprises will still make profits in November, but the profit margin will be lower than last year. The 01 - contract corn is likely to fluctuate between 2,090 - 2,150 yuan, and the 05 - contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 2,200 - 2,250 yuan. The price difference between corn and starch may fluctuate between 270 - 320 yuan [78]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.4.1 Corn - In October, Sino - US relations eased. The yield per unit of US corn may be lowered, and its price is far lower than the planting cost. It is expected that the 12 - contract of US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel, but considering that its production is still at a new high, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the 25/26 season. For domestic corn, due to the influence of rainfall in North China, the mildew rate of corn is high, and the selling pressure in North China is still significant in early November. From the end of October to early November, with the concentrated listing of corn in Jilin, the spot price of corn will still fall, but it is expected that the purchase price of 2,050 yuan per ton has strong support. In mid - November, the selling pressure in Jilin will ease, and corn prices will rebound slightly. It is expected that the purchase price at the north port will fluctuate between 2,050 - 2,130 yuan in November, the 01 - contract futures will fluctuate between 2,080 - 2,150 yuan, and the 05 - contract corn will fluctuate between 2,190 - 2,260 yuan [84][85]. 3.4.2 Starch - Due to the significant drop in the spot price of corn and the stable price of by - products, the profit of starch enterprises is good. However, the demand for corn starch is still weak, the inventory is at a high level in the past few years, and the import volume of cassava is high. After a large amount of new - season corn is on the market, the operating rate of deep - processing will increase, and it is difficult to reduce the starch inventory. The supply of deep - processing corn in North China will be sufficient, the operating rate will remain high, and the corn price will be relatively low. The profit of starch enterprises will remain high in November. It is expected that the bottom price of starch in North China is around 2,650 yuan per ton, and in the Northeast, it is around 2,400 yuan per ton. The 01 - contract starch will continue to oscillate at the bottom, and the price difference between the 01 - contract corn and starch is expected to fluctuate between 270 - 320 yuan [85]. 3.4.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Go long on US corn with a light position around 400 cents per bushel. For the 01 - contract corn, conduct short - term long operations between 2,090 - 2,150 yuan. For the 05 - contract corn, conduct short - term long operations between 2,190 - 2,250 yuan. - Arbitrage: Operate the price difference between the 01 - contract corn and starch when it is between 270 - 320 yuan. - Options: Sell c2601 - P - 2100 options after the futures price falls [86].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The price of peanuts in Henan continues to decline, while that in the Northeast remains stable. It is expected that the peanut spot market will be relatively weak in the short term [4]. - Some peanut oil mills have started purchasing, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 7,800 to 7,900 yuan/ton. The theoretical break - even price for oil mills is 7,920 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil are stable. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is strong, while peanut meal is weak in the short term [5]. - Recently, the price of common peanuts has declined, and the price of imported peanuts is stable. With an increase in supply and weak downstream demand, the peanut price will be relatively stable in the short term. The peanut futures will fluctuate at the bottom, and the peanut 01 contract will continue to show a weak oscillation [7]. 3) Summary by Sections First Part: Data - **Futures Disk**: For PK604, the closing price is 7,916, down 6 (-0.08%), with a trading volume of 302 (down 41.02%) and an open interest of 1,832 (up 8.40%); for PK510, the closing price is 8,136, down 2 (-0.02%), with a trading volume of 12 (down 76.92%) and an open interest of 425 (unchanged); for PK601, the closing price is 7,806, down 14 (-0.18%), with a trading volume of 52,811 (down 35.08%) and an open interest of 179,298 (down 2.02%) [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi are 8,600, 8,400, and 8,400 respectively, with no change. The prices of Rizhao peanut meal, Rizhao soybean meal, peanut oil, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil are 3,250, 2,990, 14,580, and 8,370 respectively, with the soybean meal price up 40 and the soybean oil price down 30. The import prices of Sudanese peanuts and Senegalese peanuts are 8,500 and 0 respectively [2]. - **Spread**: The spreads and their changes for PK01 - PK04, PK04 - PK10, and PK10 - PK01 are provided [2]. Second Part: Market Analysis - The price of peanuts in Henan has declined, with the price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan ranging from 3.45 - 3.6 yuan/jin, down 0.35 yuan/jin compared to the previous day. The price in Shandong Junan is 4.0 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. The price of imported Brazilian new peanuts is stable at 9,200 yuan/ton. The price of peanuts in the Northeast is stable, with the price of 308 common peanuts in Jilin Fuyu and Liaoning Changtu at 4.1 yuan/jin [4]. - Some peanut oil mills have started purchasing, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 7,800 to 7,900 yuan/ton. The theoretical break - even price for oil mills is 7,920 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil are stable. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is strong, while peanut meal is weak in the short term [5]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: For the 01 and 05 peanut contracts, they are oscillating at a low level, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - **Calendar Spread**: Wait and see [9]. - **Options**: Sell and hold the pk601 - P - 7600 option [10]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - There are six figures including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the压榨 profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [13][16][20].

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 28 日 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 第一部分 | | | | 市场信息 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5564 | 0 | 90 | 107258 | -25091 | 166396 | 1488 | | SM主力合约 | 5790 | -12 | 44 | 175067 | 44726 | 343779 | -2201 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5320 | 0 | 70 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5680 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The steel price in the short - term will maintain a range - bound oscillation, and it still follows the fluctuation of coking coal. Breaking the current situation requires more factors. The subsequent focus should be on coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Related Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is priced at 3190 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3140 yuan (+20), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil at 3340 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil at 3240 yuan (+20) [4]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The steel price will maintain a volatile trend with upward pressure [6]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and the long position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Important Information** - In November 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines is 28.47 million units, a 17.7% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year. Specifically, the production schedule of household air conditioners is 12.76 million units, a 23.7% decrease; that of refrigerators is 7.78 million units, a 9.4% decrease; and that of washing machines is 7.93 million units, a 0.2% decrease [7]. - Last week, 21 exporters surveyed by SMM received new export orders of approximately 789,000 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons from the previous week, a 12.16% increase [8]. Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts related to rebar and hot - rolled coil, including price trends, basis, spreads, and profit margins, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [9][11][13].